Move The Line - NFL Conference Championship Prop Bets | EXPERT Props, Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: January 28, 2023

NFL Conference Championship Prop Bets from Connor Allen, Pat Mayo. They share their top Conference Championship player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps:0:00 Intro 2:10 Miles Sanders Prop Bet4:26 Jalen Hurts Prop Bet7:50 Anytime Touchdown Bet9:13 Samaje Perine Prop Bet12:46 Tyler Boyd Prop Bet15:12 Marquez-Valdes Scantling Prop Bet17:31 Another Miles Sanders Prop Bet/Same-Game Parlay22:51 Brandon Aiyuk Prop Bet24:46 Q+A Props29:36 Final Conference Championship Prop Bets Thoughts34:13 OutroGet 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show. Our normal host Ryan Noonan is out this week, so I will be filling in. But joining me today, as always, the Pat Mayo. Pat, how's it going, man? I'm doing well. Only four games to choose the props from, weirdly. I only needed one. I think every single one of my props besides one comes from one team in particular.

And if I don't have that team figured out this week, I'm in a world for her. Well, that's bold. I feel like when when i have a good read on something i want to go all in and i guess at this point there's no better time to since there's only four teams but it definitely makes me nervous kind of putting all my eggs in one basket uh because like you said if you don't have it figured out like it can definitely you know hurt you but speaking of like last week your hayden hearst analysis led me to betting on his over on his receptions and i don't even know if you played that or if it was an official look, but you started talking about it led me to that.

And I mean, I think that cashed in like the first half. So, you know, shout out to you on that. Yeah, that was a fun one. I think I hit everything last week except for Josh Allen rushing attempts, which we got hooked on. And he had three rushes called back with holding penalties. So that's never any fun. But you led me because I was going to go with ETN under rushing attempts. And then you sold me on Barkley.

So I just parlayed those two together. It was a great week. Oh, yeah. It was awesome. It was. Yeah, it was. It was a very good week for us as well. And the attempts probably was interesting.

It's both of like the heavy underdogs who's had like really a tight high attempts, like 15 and a half. Both of them went well under because the underdogs predictably lost and they stopped, couldn't run the ball when they were losing. So it made a lot of sense. Also, Jermichael hasty played a lot last week. That was a little weird though. Um, you know, played a little bit more than normal. Um, before we dive in today though, I just want to let the viewers know if you like what you hear on here, uh, you can find all of our player prop bets or my player brought bets and noonans in a betting subscription at four, four.com just $19 through the Super Bowl.

It includes all of our tools. This is subscriber Discord and all of our bets. So anyways, let's dive in to our favorite props of the week. Pat, I'll let you go first here with what I assume will be all from one team here. Yeah, Eagles. So I had a very good read on the Eagles last week, and let's hope I have a very good read on the Eagles this week. So I'm going to start in that rushing attempts market thank god it got adjusted

because the juice was getting a bit high on Miles Sanders under rushing attempts it was 14 and a half minus 160 now at DraftKings Sportsbook it's 13 and a half under minus 110 so I like that much more I haven't projected at around 10 rushing attempts. And here's the thing. Philadelphia is not stupid. They're one of the smarter teams going. As we saw last week, Dallas, not one of the smarter teams going. Are they going to run the ball into the teeth of the best run defense in football? I don't think so. And especially when you take a look at how this backfield breaks down. It's not that I expect Boston Scott to get 10 carries or gain.

Well, to repeat what he did last week, but you still have a three headed backfield. Even if Boston Scott's getting three, four carries in a game and gain, well, it was getting six, seven,

which is definitely in the realm of outcomes and probably on the majority side of what is likely in this game. Miles Sanders is going to play like at most 50% of the running back snaps in the game where I doubt they want, they want to run the ball, but they probably know that's not the best idea in the world. And then you still have to factor in what if they're just Jalen Hurts designed runs in this game, which is probably going to be far more effective that yeah, Miles Sanders, the type of running back who can make one cut and get 60 yards down the field. So I'm not playing

this as a rushing yards under prop. I'm playing as a rushing attempts under prop. And hopefully that logic doesn't backfire on me. It doesn't go the other way where he has like 18 attempts for 32 yards or something like that. But I really liked the under 13 and a half rushing attempts. I absolutely agree. I actually did play the under on the rushing yards. I did play the under on the rushing attempts too.

It opened at one point in one sportsbook at 15 and a half. I mean, it was minus one 30, but still I was like, this is insanity. So I did play the under the rushing yards. That was a 57 and a half. So obviously I can't release that here. It's like 49 and a half some spots. Uh, I mean, I think that's still fine, but I'd, I'd much prefer the attempts at that point than, uh, the yardage San Francisco has allowed one running back to clear 60 yards all season, which is, I mean, shocking. It's pretty impressive. And I believe it was Josh Jacobs and he had like 20 carries or something like that. So, you know, it took like insane volume to get there. As you mentioned, Miles Sanders will not get there.

And you brought one up that it's actually my first play Jalen hurts rushing over. I like that a lot. We're looking at 46 and a half, uh, depending on the book, 47 and a half, the Niners have with D'Amico Ryan's, their defensive coordinator have kind of struggled against truly mobile quarterbacks. They didn't get to play against Kyler Murray this year, but if we look at who they played this year, specifically, they allowed 50 yards on just six carries to Marcus Mariota earlier. And if we look at last year, they allowed 10, 10 carries, 82 yards to Jalen Hurts himself, and then a hundred yards to Justin Fields. So those are really the only three quarterbacks in that sample that we have. I know it's a small sample, but I think it

is notable there specifically. And he ran nine times for 34 yards last week in a game that literally was over at halftime. It was 28 to zero. There was no reason for him to run or anything. And he fits kind of that study that we talked about. We've talked about relentlessly on the show. A quarterback who averages 30 yards in the regular season averages an extra six yards per game in the playoffs there. And I think that this line is just a little bit too short given that. And beyond that, I think they're going to run some even more designed runs on the third and short because if we look at this Niners team, they have a little bit of a weakness. So the 49ers defense on third down and short, overall on down their 15th they've allowed a 39 conversion

rate on third and less than five they're 31st in the league allowing a 68 conversion rate and third and five plus their third in the league at 29 so to me i mean that screams that the eagles who are third in converting third and short uh you know like with with design runs with that stupid to be sneak that they do with pushing the ball i I love that. Oh, it's amazing. So I think that this is a good look. Uh, I know the attempts open to like nine and a half would have loved to get that too, but any thoughts on Jalen hurts here? Yeah. I love Jalen hurts. I was looking at the nine and a half rushing attempts. I think that goes over too, but what am I going to get it at right now? Yards for hurts. I mean, you could even play it as a part of a ladder if you really wanted to, as in terms of a milestone, which is the straight up rushing prop.

Yeah, I love it. I think it's fantastic. It's forty seven and a half. You can probably find it like a yard lower, a yard higher, depending on what it was. But I'm throwing together a same game parlay here. Don't worry about that. Love it. Love it. I mean, we need to do you place any last week? I know two weeks you were pretty cold, but did you, did you rip any last week during the show or were they golf ones? I played some golf ones last week, but the ones I actually played last week, I did. I told you I played, it wasn't necessarily the same game parlay.

It was parlaying the props from the different games. Right. If, if Alan had gotten the one more rushing attempt, it would have been a pure sweep across the board and even hitting like the seven prop parlay that I played, which would have been fantastic news. But there was a whole bunch of really good ones. But I think this Eagles game is where I want to go because it's really the only side this week that at least I like to think that I have figured out everything else just seems like who knows. Yeah. And I mean, I guess if we can take a step back, like, what do you think I just overall like your macro view on that game? Like, do you think that the Eagles win here?

Two and a half point favorites, like 46 and a half point total, because personally, I don't know. I think that there's holes to be poked in both sides, but I do agree that there's some level of consistency for this Eagle scene. Yeah. I think that the Eagles win.

They probably win by like seven. They could win by more than that. I'm open to being wrong about that. It's not like I'm including the Philly money line in a lot of this stuff, but it's funny, even with the props that I'm building, they seem to work both in the Eagles win and Eagles lose script. And that's what I like about it. Yeah, that's, I think that's important because I think there is a pretty wide range of outcomes here for, for both sides, but we can get into your second prop if you want to. Yeah. Jalen hurts anytime touchdown.

You got to piggyback on where you're going with this. You're not going to find anything close to even money generally outside of really reaching you're going to be paying minus 115 minus 120 whatever it may be as it pertains to any sort of jail and hurts props but if you go to the touchdown mark i mean he has what 14 rushing touchdowns this year he's plus 110 to score and as you pointed out with the way this dom D'Amico Ryan's defense is set up, like he's going to be able to get loose. And if he does that around the goal line or they run that super sneak, that seems pretty unbeatable at this point.

So if they just get themselves within the five yard line, which you would expect that they can do, I think he scores on the ground. Yeah. I don't know what a part same game parlay of like 50 plus and a touchdown is, but I think that that's a good look because that also adds in the factor of like maybe a longer rushing touchdown. You know what I mean? If he gets like a breaks along when it's definitely possible for him. But like you said, the usage in the goal line, I think is going to be great. I don't really envision them just like they, they sometimes would run up the middle, you know, in the goal line, like right when they get

up there, because they can bully most teams in the trenches. Like they have one of the, the best or the best offensive lines in the league. And, but this Niners team also is one of the best run defenses. So, um, specifically to running backs, uh, I think it was allowing 3.29 yards per carry at this point, supposing running back. So super stiff there. Um, I think we're in pretty much agreement about how we expect Hertz usage and miles standards issues to go. I'm going to go to the other game for my second prop with Samaj P Ryan. I'm going to go with over two and a half receptions at this point at plus money. We played it at 13 and a half receiving yards.

That's all the way climbed up to 16 and a half at this point. I still lean over there, but we go through the past four games with the Bengals office of line starting to get injured. And more P Ryan has run 18, 19, 19 and 21 routes more than Joe Mixon in three of the four games. The past two weeks,

Joe Mixon's only run a combined 22 routes. Last week, we saw Perrine Samajipiran targeted five times in one game. And since they started losing their offensive lineman, Joe Burrows actually targeted the running back position on 19.6% of his passes. And that was actually in a tough match against a Buffalo team who was like top three in defending the running back, allowing 30 yards per game. Now they play Kansas City, who should get a little bit more pressure than Buffalo and his 28th and DVO against the running back position, allowing 46 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. So I think that you're

going to see Joe Burrow still need to get the ball out quick. He's running a bunch of routes and he's a much easier matchup where it seems like the linebackers are not be able to cover him as much. So you're able to get this a plus money pretty widely. I think that at this point with the receiving yards shooting up to 16 and a half, that's probably how I'd play it. But I mean, either way, if he's getting three catches, I mean, he's probably going to get 16, 17 yards at least. If you project him for three catches, why wouldn't you play the over two and a half receptions at plus 100? Right. Yeah. I mean, that's, I think it's, I think it's good. And I think you could ladder it. I mean, he had what five last week on five targets. I think maybe,

I mean, that was probably one of the ceiling outcomes, but still like if they're, they fall behind at all, they're going to keep passing a bunch, even if they didn't, I mean, they were winning the entire game and he still had five receptions. Uh, so I don't know. I think it's, I think it's an interesting spot to keep tailing, uh, Somaji Piran because the market still loves Joe Mixon. And I think that it's fine. But if we look at the routes run, like they're basically running the same amount of routes.

They are. And like my numbers support all of that i think his medium projection comes out at 23 receiving yards so i'm i'm on board with that oh i like that yeah so yeah i mean maybe so at this point you're probably thinking the two and a half at even is probably better than the 16 and a half receiving yards i'd guess right i think it depends on your risk tolerance tell you the truth because it might just take one catch for him to get there on the receiving yards, I'd guess, right? I think it depends on your risk tolerance, to tell you the truth, because it might just take one catch for him to get there on the receiving yards, but he could end up with like four for five at the same time too. So it really depends on, I like the idea of receptions more because I think that targets are generally a bit more predictable than how much the actual receiving yardage is, especially coming out of the backfield. Like when you look at

running back receiving games, it can be all over the map in terms of yards per catch. It all just depends on one block or one right scheme or when in the game they actually get the reception. If it's in a two-minute drill where they need to go 40 yards to get into field goal range, the defense is going to give you that yardage to stay in the middle of the field. So we might get there all on that one go.

I just think, as you mentioned, with the amount of routes run that you're seeing as almost an even split between Mixon and Pirine, then all of a sudden, if you can kind of pencil in four targets, if he gets to four targets, he's probably going to get three receptions. Right, yeah. No, I think that's a good look there.

And what I started doing, people have actually asked us this in the Discord, is like, oh, when you're deciding between receptions and receiving yards, I don't think it's a bad idea to actually do like a half unit on both rather than putting it all in one especially if you're really torn like i think that you know in this spot maybe you probably take the plus money maybe that's a better look but you know like if you're really torn put a

half unit on each because most likely if he's catching three balls he's probably gonna have 20 yards anyways but you know if you for some reason he does have four catches for five yards you know you're splitting the difference there and you're not kicking yourself for playing the yardage over instead so that's an interesting one that i thought could work for uh you know at least that game specifically but let's go to your third here i don't know if you're going you're going back to the eagles again here i'm not i'm actually going to stay with the bengals and something i've noticed with the chiefs defense uh you know they don't really cover slot receivers ever so i know it's not fun to take tyler boyd based on the unders that he has been posting recently and hayden hearst getting back more

involved but i do think this is the week to go back at him his receiving total is now at 33 and a half it's 32 in some places which i've seen i like the over on that this feels like a four for 45 type day for Tyler Boyd. That's interesting. It's not actually someone that I've even looked at really like just because Boyd is like basically been like an under nothing guy for me for so long. But I totally get it. What are the receptions that like three and a half, something like that? Three and a half plus 125 to the over. That's interesting because I do think that like I, you know, kind of introed here that the Bengals are going to have to get the ball out quick. Frank Clark and you know, the chiefs defense

sixth and pressure rate, the bills last week, you know, that was the biggest story. I mean, the bills defensive line was dominated by the Bengals who were, you know, without three of their starters, which is shocking. I mean, that was one of the most surprising things I've seen in a while. And the bills without Von Miller 19th, the pressure rate and looked like they couldn't get any pressure at all on Joe burrow. So this one, I expect the Chiefs to get a little bit more pressure, probably forcing me to get the ball quick to like P. Ryan, to Boyd, to Hurst, and probably Chase still. Higgins might be the odd man left out again here. I don't know. I mean, if you played any Higgins action, but his props have been dropping to, I mean, we're in the

fifties now at this point. Like he was once a guy where it was like mid to high sixties for a good chunk of the year, but he hasn't really been seeing any work as of late. I am undecided on what to do with T Higgins. I think the move might just be play anytime touchdown with him. Yeah, I think he's probably like an interesting, I don't know, contrarian DFS play. I mean, I don't know what his ownership will be, but like I would assume that he'll probably won't have a ton because he just hasn't been used and he could certainly pop off. It seems like they're shifting away from him for some reason. It might just be matchup

based. I don't know. It seems like anytime that they give the ball to Jamar chase now that he is healthy. And since he's returned, he just makes big things happen every time he touches the ball. And they're like, well, it's low risk. He's standing five feet in front of me. I'll just flip it to him and he'll do the rest. Higgins isn't really that guy. And I just think that Boyd will find himself open in the middle of the field a lot this week. Yeah, no, I like that for sure. That's an interesting one. Just a reminder to you guys, if you guys have any questions about any props or anything you want answered, I see a bunch of you in the chat already talking about some, but we will get to those after we're done with our main prop. So my third one here, this is tough because my home

status has been all over the place this week. You know, the line opened up with the chiefs being favored by a point and a half and then swung all the way at one point to the bangles minus two and a half with people really concerned about his high ankle sprain. We saw the video of my home's jogging around, walking out of the press conference, you know, all the cameras resumed in on his ankle. He looks good. I'm sure they shot him up with a ton of drugs before that. So that way he would look good. But I mean, he looks good. All the reports are that he's going to be good. So I played this a little bit early, but I still think it's fine. I played Marquez Valdez-Scantling under, I played it at 30. I think it's a 27 and a half year. I still

think it's fine. Beyond Mahomes, I guess there's some general concern about whether he'll be able to his mobility. And I think part of that is driving with his feet. If you go back and watch the tape in the second half last week, I mean, he had four to five, like legitimately horrible throws. He wasn't able to, like, he was like throwing behind guys, throwing over them. And he obviously his stats ended up being good. And you ended up having like a decent day because Kelsey's awesome. Kateri's Tony's awesome. Juju did a good job on a route here and there. So I think that the offense as a whole might be fine, but MVS, I mean, hovering around a 50% snap rate has under 30 receiving yards in six straight games and right around that 27, 28 mark. But here in this spot, I mean, I have a little bit of concerns about how Kansas, Kansas city matches up against this Bengals team

that has done a pretty good job defending them. And I think plays them, you know, a little bit differently this week. So I lean towards the under under on MBS even though I know it's scary it's like a one bomb kind of thing here for MBS what was the number uh 27 and a half 27 and a half all right he has beat that number once since they last played the Bengals when he had six for 71 yeah and that was like literally that was the one catch that he had and at this point now like now we're looking at this offense like Jarek McKinnon's integrated, Kadarius Tony's more integrated. You figure that Juju will continue seeing where Kelsey is seeing work. So yeah. And like, if you think too, that like Mahomes doesn't have the mobility,

you're looking at less time to scramble a little bit. I think at the very least, he's not gonna be able to be like a hundred percent Mahomes. Like he won't be scrambling around running in circles, like, you know know chucking up bombs uh occasionally so yeah I think that that's an interesting look again it's scary it's a one play thing could sink you but I think in a median outcome here more games than not he's not going to get the 30 yards I would tend to agree with you on that my fourth play at this point needs to be more of a a same game parlay, to be perfectly honest with you, because it's been juiced to the nines right now. But Miles Sanders, under one and a half receptions.

I don't know where they were setting the line with this. And I wish I was more proactive when it came to looking at the props when they were released this week. But this one seems outrageous. The last time he had more than a catch in a game had two catches against tennessee on december 4th he had three the week before that then one zero zero zero one i mean he's just basically he's writing binary code with the amount of receptions he's getting every single

week watch this be the week but i don't know man like this this has an under hit rate of like 85 yeah what what is the juice on that at this point? I know you said it needs to be in the same game parlay, but I mean, what is like minus one 50 minus one 200. Something like that. It's more than that. Now it is, let's see, minus one 95 on draft. Uh, which is accurate based on what we've seen from these teams and what we've seen

from his output. That's where it should be the line should be a half reception that's why it's kind of so outrageous and to look at it on a different site right now where are we at here receptions miles sanders minus 175 on the under so at least a better price i just played that in the same game parlay with uh sanders under rushing attempt senders under receptions hurts over rushing yards hurts anytime touchdown that pays nine to one so you can kind of use it as a piece to prop up what you want to do this week if that's the way that

you want to go like even to play it with other things we just keep that in there um as whatever prop that we want to go to and you just try to look at the rest of it. If we go to rushing props, let's say, uh, rushing props for the week. Oh, you put it with the jail and hurts over nine and a half plus one 65, put it with the mile Sanders under rushing yards or rush,

sorry, rushing attempts for miles Sanders. You're up to plus one 75. That's not bad. Like two things. I really don't think are going to happen. It's only two of them together. Plus one 75.

That's not bad. You can put it with J1 Hertz over 47 and a half rushing errors. And all of a sudden you get two to one on your money. So that one just seems so good. Watch it lose. But you can find different juices at different places. No, I love that. Also on top of that, San Francisco right now, by far the best team at defending running

backs in the league at passing pass catching. It's like if you look at their DVO way, like they are negative 47.9%, which is good in DVO way. The next closest is negative 22%. And like the rest of the league is like 14, you know, 10, like in those in that range. So only allowing, you know, what is it? 30 yards per game, like really just not allowing that much to the running back. So I think that that's a great look here for sure.

You can also play the, I guess it only gets up to a minus, just do the Miles Sanders under. You can go under one and a half receptions, under 14 and a half rushing attempts, and under 60 and a half total yards. Three. I like it. I mean, I think that's actually a great way to do it

because you're just buying all the unders on Miles Sanders. And I think that, I mean, we are, I was big on the overs last week and he got there obviously, but I think this is just a great spot because the Eagles, like you said, are one of those predictable teams that against the Titans, you know, great run defense, past defenses are significantly worse. They went past heavy. I mean, miles Sanders had 10, 10 carries for 23 yards or whatever it was. And then now this week, Niners run defense is elite. Their pass defense is significantly better than the Titans, but it's certainly their weak spot if we're going to point to one thing there. So I think that's a great point.

I like that same game parlay a lot in that look. I played a similar one as my best bet in the Super Bowl last year, all pertaining to Cam Akers. It was under rushing attempts, under rushing yards, under receptions, and it just it wasn't even close like it was just clean sweep right away the only thing that was worrisome was the attempts because as you may recall in the first half all the rams did was run for negative yardage with cam acres on every first down oh yeah that was that was such a strange prop that opened

to like 60 rushing yards and i was like this is way too high like this is like outrageous and i saw some people play the over two even i was like i'm not worried like he's not this is not going to happen like they're not going to rebuild around the ball and lo and behold you know they did not it makes sense it's funny looking at it too because i mean we've talked about how great the 49ers run defenses the eagles run defense is equally almost as elite on the ground when it comes to shutting down running backs. Like I look at my projection for Christian McCaffrey, it's 62. It seems kind of high. Yeah. I mean, it's crazy. So that market actually opened up like Christian McCaffrey's prop opened to like 63, 64. It sounded like 57, 55. Like, I mean, this is the lowest Christian McCaffrey rushing prop that we've gotten

ever basically since he like joined the Niners. Um, so I like, I think the market agrees with you that like, it's, it's not going to be necessarily, you know, easy sledding, um, because they're, they're running has been playing a lot better as of late. Um, I still think that that might be their weakness relative to their past defense, because I think their defense overall is good, but, um, how successful they are. McCaffrey also banged up, like was dealing with an injury last week in the second half is obviously going to play, but, uh, didn't practice all week. So I don't know.

I think it's for me, it's a stay away. If he was healthy, I would consider it, but I don't know. I mean, I, I go back and forth on that game a lot for sure. Yeah. I like the under on McCaffrey, but I don't think I'm going to play it. Love it. Um, my last one here, Brandon, I, you, I took the under on three and a half receptions. So sincedy took over

iuk has had like plenty of success but a lot of that came in either like easy matchups or without debo samuel uh in the five games with purdy and without debo iuk has two three four two and five in the two games he went over three and a half receptions we're against miami and arizona who ranked 21st and 25th in past defense dboa eagles especially strong on the outside with james bradbury darius slay and i think they'll, especially strong on the outside with James Bradbury, Darius Slay. And I think they'll draw Ayuk on the majority of the routes. He's ran a route on the slot here

just 16% of the time over the past three weeks without Debo. So, or over the past three weeks with Debo. And on top of this, I think that the 49ers could, I mean, try and go run heavy here, at least to start,

as long as the game is close. Because, I mean, I can't say necessarily what exactly they're going to do, but they have just so many weapons now with McCaffrey, with Debo, and with Ayuk and Kittle. It's tough if they're not going to be throwing the ball 35 plus times a game to pencil in Ayuk for four to five receptions here. So also another factor on top of this, a friend of the show, Steve Boyden, mentioned that the Eagles now have two members of their staff that were also on the staff at Iowa State with Brock Purdy when he was quarterback there. So I don't know.

I mean, I don't think that it's necessarily a massive factor, but I do think that every player in every sport has small tells and little things that they do, little quirks, maybe weaknesses that they've seen that I think could give a little bit of an edge there. I don't know what it's going to be or how it's going to plan out, but I'm sure that they have some little bits of inside info here that could twist Purdy the wrong way. Okay. Seems like a stretch. Of course, but you never know.

I mean, there's some familiarity factor. You never played against some of your old teammates on any sport, and they just know you I mean, there's some familiarity factor, you know, like you never, you never played against like some of your old teammates. I got a 90 sport and they're like, you know, they just like know you, you know, it's one of those things, but I guess they're not out there. So it doesn't matter. Let's see here. What else we got? We'll get to some questions here.

We got Brian Sullivan thoughts on Debo rushing when it comes up. Shani likes to ride him in big games. So that is up right now. We're looking at it opened at 17 and a half rushing yards. I think we're looking at 20 and a half rushing yards. Pat, any thoughts on Debo rushing? Not really. And that's it's just such a crapshoot prop.

I mean, all props are relatively crapshoot, but that one just it's hard to project because it's all based on rushing attempts, which seem to have no rhyme or reason to them. Yeah, that's I mean, the issue with Debo, too, is like if they want it to be a Debo game, he'll have six, seven carries and go way over this number. If they don't want it to be Debo game, then he'll have like two and it'll just be Elijah. I think logically, if you want to talk yourself into it, it's very easy. Christian McCaffrey is banged up. Eli Mitchell's banged up. Give the ball to Debo.

Easy stuff. Right. Yeah. Simple as that. Yeah. So I do think that yeah I think it's fine I don't know again like you said it's kind of a crap shoot uh Daniel who asked who are we pairing the Joe Burrow free square on prize picks with I think we gave you a bunch of options here uh my my probably my favorite look is anything Samaje Pirine related

Pat what's your favorite look to pair with him on I guess just they actually had the uh Milesers one in there the problem with the free square is like i didn't use it in my big money entry because yeah you can only i think you can only wager up to like 20 or 25 bucks on it but i would say less than 13 and a half rushing attempts would be my favorite one unless they actually have that mile sanders reception one in there i'm going to check right now to see if they have it i don't think that they do probably not yeah they aren't stupid enough to post a one and a half up on that one so yeah the the under 14 and a half rushing attempts let me see if that number still exists first it doesn't it's off the board oh man good thing i locked that one in yeah i always struggle with these free squares because you know like taking the the two pick free square nets me like whatever like 50 bucks so like it doesn't move the needle for me you know if you're gonna do it just play the six play for 30 times

your money or whatever it's a 20 free roll basically with a free square of it right so yeah that's what i go back and forth it's like oh i can get like a basically one pick for like plus 200 or whatever it is you know uh with the free square but that like i just don't care about you know 25 enough to win that i'd rather just you know play the big one like you said the six leg one um let's see here it looks like young and fearless mentioned the miles sanders rushing prop under 13 and a half plus 102 on can be shops that's a good look there plus where is it uh can be so like bet rivers bar stool uh like um things like that that's what uh he mentioned there i did not double check but i think that probably that's amazing yeah that's that's a good look there shout out

young and fearless 22 uh daniel again p-run overs are my favorite right now last week he ran out route on 49 of dropbacks not including pass blocking snaps. Mixon was in the 30s. Nice. Yeah, I think we all agree there. Fire sports. Oh, we got an oppo here. Hurts under 47 at rushing yards.

Fire sports, you know, not going to go with that. AJ Brown, though, this is an interesting one. I've seen a lot of people talk about that. Any thoughts on AJ Brown? Because there's the narrative coming off last week where he was like, oh, like I didn't get the ball ball enough but he was like injured and didn't play like half the game so i don't that was just strange and now he's a pretty good matchup i think against the niners in some senses where they're they do allow big plays like 21st explosive pass rate i mean otherwise

like an incredibly stout defense any thoughts on aj or is it just a little bit too high of a number it's gotten too high i actually gave out the prop earlier in the week as one of my favorite plays, and it was 67 and a half receiving yards. So I did bet the over on the 67 and a half earlier in the week. 70 and a half. I mean, I like the number as well.

I do think that he goes over this. I would expect Ward to be on Devonta Smith because they have to throw their bigger body on A.J. Brown. So even if Ward does get matched up with Brown, just jump all city for him all day. I think you can get behind this defense. I don't think that they have anyone realistically that can match up with him as long as they throw the ball high. Yeah, yeah.

And I kind of do think that they go like like a little bit past heavier here just in general. We've talked about this. So, you know, if that kind of all goes together, I was looking at that four and a half receptions, but I mean, I don't really want to play minus 150 or minus 160 on an over, you know, if that kind of all goes together, I was looking at that four and a half receptions, but I mean, I don't really want to play minus one 50 or minus one 60 on an, on an over, you know, like on an under, I think it's one thing, like you said, like miles Sanders, like he's like literally just 85% of the time, not hitting that. And so I think that that's like a great look on the under, but for an over, it's not something that I particularly love to do.

Again, probably just could be a better same game parlay option if you want to throw it in there, because I do like the over four and a half receptions a lot, especially if they have to get the ball out quick. Yeah. Plus money on the offshore as well from Al Sanders. Nice. And Jalen hurts anytime touchdown. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. That's that's wise like that. Awesome. Well, I think that was all of our questions here. Let me, let's run through a couple of other props. I guess we didn't get to, I think we got to most of them here,

but I think the other ones that I was curious about would be like, sure. Any thoughts on George Kittle? I mean, I go back and forth. He had some incredible games, nothing on there yet. He has amazing games with,

with Purdy, but then those were all without Debo. And as soon as Debo came back, like he hasn't had really a good game with him besides outside, like the bobble catch, which was, I mean, George Kittle was awesome, but you can't bank on that every week. So, um, and then other than that, we talked about Debo Devonta Smith, his props are getting a little bit out of control here. I mean, Devonta Smith was like the clear one B for a while, at least in the prop market. Uh, and now since like recently, he's been crushing it. Uh, but I'm a little bit worried to keep buying into overs

with Devonta because of just what we've seen earlier. Any thoughts on Devonta or kind of just an A.J. Brown or nothing for you? It's an A.J. Brown or nothing because I do. It's not that I fear Ward. It's just I think that he gets matched up on Devonta Smith. I would take the under on him. OK, yeah, because I think we were seeing his props

at like five and a half receptions. And then it was in the high 60s for a while yeah 66 receiving yards that's that's tough for me uh that's just a little bit too much and then any the last eagles prop that we didn't really talk about dallas goddard i feel like it's just i don't ever know what to do with him kind of like he's in that range where sure if they want to make it a point uh to target him then they will and you'll win your prop. But it seems like we just don't really have a good gauge of whether that happens or not. One prop that I was looking at was like Quez Watkins unders maybe. I know that it's super

thin, but like with Goddard in the lineup, he just really hasn't been seeing that much work. And then he played a lot less last week even. So I don't know. It's, I mean, quite as a guy that, you know, he's just really, he's, he's thin. Like he's, it's like a 19 and a half yard prop, one and a half receptions. So I guess it depends on what kind of sweat you're looking for,

because that's not for everyone. Losing on one play or two plays is not fun. I have Quez Watkins hitting his under on 15 and a half receiving yard, 63% of the time for what it's worth. Wow. Yeah. I mean, so,

I mean, I can throw this into my tool here. Just give me one sec. Prop tool, Quez Watkins. What was the juice on it? Uh, let's see here.

It's minus one 20. If you find the right spot here or the under, yeah. Minus one 30 at a DK, but we'll call it minus 125 and split the difference all that minus 105 receiving yard then you said it was was it 15 or 16 and a half uh 15 and a 15 and a half let's see here calculate see if this is a good bet it actually does give the under a positive Kelly criterion bet because the odds,

I mean, the implied odds are 55.6% at minus one 25 and the actual odds of it hitting are 57%. So it says slightly. And it's a, it's a good bet. Not a great bet. Yeah,

that makes sense. Yeah. I think that that's, that's a solid lean there. And then to wrap us up here, cool house is a little same game parlay brown five plus receptions hurts 25 plus pass attempts total under 56 and a half uh it is plus 140 on dk yeah i mean i i can't tell you why you're wrong uh you know i think it's a good look but i hate betting alternate total unders or alternate total overs because that's where like totals are super volatile. Like it's one of those things that they tell you not to tease totals. And that's the

reason why like people look at teas like sides, like this week, there's two great Wong teasers. You know, you can tease basically, you know, I think at this point, since he in San Francisco, you can tease both above the seven. Um, but that's because, you know, there's a really tight range of outcomes generally for, for sides totals are like all over the place. So I just ran by the way, through my system of whether it's a good bet or not of the under one and a half receptions on miles Sanders at the juice of minus one 70. And it's still telling me that it's a fantastic. Oh, that's awesome. That's great. Yeah. I think that's going to be, that's a good look because it'll be, I generally, I put these props in and then later in the week, I'll throw in some same game parlays with, you know, like getting just things that I'm more confident in, like juiced

up or like having more action in that. Because I mean, there's nothing worse than saying, you know, oh, well I knew that and I was right, but I just didn't put enough on it. You know? So I think having like alternates, uh, you know, like same game parlays with like, you know, Brown seven receptions or Sanders, you can play alternate unders like under 40 yards under 35 rushing yards, something like that, because I think that's very much the range of outcomes. So getting exposure that way, plus maybe some under receptions is a good look. So awesome.

Well, I think that is it for us today. Shorter show without move the line. Pat, tell the people where they could find you if they don't know already. Mayo Media Network on the YouTubes where you can find all of the episodes of the Pat Mayo Experience in video version. You want audio version? Type that into Apple Podcasts or Spotify and you will be good to go. See you in two weeks. Love it. See you soon, Pat. Guys, don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel. For Pat, I'm Connor. See you guys soon for our Super Bowl prop show coming up.