Move The Line - NFL Draft Props You HAVE to BET!
Episode Date: April 26, 2022Move The Line hosts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, and John Daigle are joined by Evan Silva and Joey Knish for an NFL Draft Prop Betting preview.Timestamps:0:00 Intro0:53 Welcome3:52 Last Minute Draft Pro...ps News & Notes8:14 Travon Walker Steam & Top-5 Picks23:55 Giants Draft Predictions29:58 What Happens at Pick No. 6?34:58 What are the Falcons Doing at Pick No. 8?39:51 Seahawks Draft Thoughts at 9 Overall45:07 Team & Player Ideal Fits57:40 Late-Round Surprise Moneymaking Bet58:54 Bets Still on the Board to Place1:21:08 Q+AHosts: Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, John Daigle, Move the LineFollow Us On:TwitterFacebookYouTubeDiscord 4for4 NFL Draft Odds & Betting TrackerMove the Line Bets Tracker Get a FREE 4for4 Pro Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit)Want a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMGet a FREE 4for4 Pro Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit) 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wtvfuhEmail: hello@4for4.com
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Yeah! the FanDuel Sportsbook app today. Enter our promo code 444 and take advantage. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by my friends,
Connor Allen, John Daigle.
And it is the best, at least in my opinion,
I think at least Connor's with me.
We'll get your gentleman's opinion.
The best betting events on the calendar
deserves the best panel that we can bring you.
Joey Kanish, Evan Silva here, as always, in this spot.
Silva, what's going on bud what's up yeah
i would put the super bowl up against this but i'm i'm a little affected by recency bias because we
just absolutely murdered uh this past super bowl but nfl draft props i mean this is where you know
even knish can generate some wins yeah i mean, even Kanish can get some shit right here.
So I'm excited for this one.
Casual Kanish, as always.
Appreciate that you're joining us.
I know it's your mid-nap.
Yeah, I was going to say, I don't know why.
I mean, I thought we could do this, you know, at 6 or something
before I was going to bed here.
But, you know, hey, there's no place I'd rather be on a draft week here
than chopping it up with you mugs and letting, you know,
Silva know who's the new big dog in the NFL space.
Well, you're going to be on the clock here shortly, my friend,
because we have to unpack a couple of Lions picks here.
Folks, if you're not familiar,
Kanisha is the managing editor at lionspride.org.
Check out that site.
Lots of good things they're doing for the community and for the Lions organization.
So good stuff there.
A little housekeeping at the top.
I want to let you know.
Do we want to talk too early for division prices or do we want to start?
We don't want to.
It's a draft show.
A little too early.
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to wear that kind of up to you. They're not the best t-shirts. The hoodies are fire. The t-shirts
aren't great, but again, fantastic deal. I wanted to touch base with that off the top. Cause it's,
it's fantastic. So Evan, I want to get your thoughts at the top
because this is a unique draft.
We have eight teams with multiple picks at the top.
We have no clear-cut quarterbacks
where we know that they're always kind of,
you know, people will pay the tax
to get up to the top of the board.
How has this changed your process
in trying to evaluate this too?
Because we have a lot of teams that are like,
hey, this guy is being, this team's interested in this guy. We have, they have like the jets that could be pick four. That
could be pick 10. The giants could be pick five, pick seven. There's a lot of things that are
extra variables and a pretty unpredictable thing to begin with.
Yeah. It's absolutely an interesting variable that 25% of the league has two first round picks. I mean, Lions, Jets, Texans, Giants, Eagles,
Saints, Packers, Chiefs all have multiple first round picks. I think a bunch of the teams up top
will be trying to trade out and trying to get first round picks in 2023. But I also think that
it's going to be difficult for them because this is not a top heavy you know
blue chip player filled draft so um i'll be interested like i i can see like the panthers
at number six taking like a big time discount to get more picks because they don't have a second
or a third rounder um but i think that in order to move out of this first round,
especially near the top teams are going to have to take discounts because
there just are so few true blue chip players.
JD,
we've had some news at the top,
obviously in the last 24 hours with the shift of betting odds at the top of
the board with Trayvon Walker.
Lots of that kind of has been steaming as we know for the last couple of weeks, we're in a very different situation than we are today. Talk to me about the top of the board with Trayvon Walker. Lots of that kind of has been steaming as we know for the last couple of weeks. We're in a very different situation than we are today. Talk to me about the
top of the board. Obviously, this is last year. I think we felt really strong about the top 10,
right? And I think this year we have to kind of slowly layer in one by one and get a feel for
where we're at. What makes this draft so interesting is the if-then situations, and that's how any mock draft, that's how any exact just gets screwed up, is that even if you do have one team, let's say the Lions, whittled down to two or three players, the order of those two or three players causes a catastrophic landfill, all right?
Like, it's just a landslide all the way down to where different players then go from that point forward.
And so that's really, I think, the struggle with here.
Even like I wrote in my mock draft, the theme of this draft is that it has to happen.
It just has to happen.
Like it's already on TV.
The players are there.
It just has to happen.
Even the Jaguars, number one team, don't want to make a definitive pick.
They're in between everyone.
So it's going to be interesting as we walk through because i feel actually overconfident
in the first four picks but then from five on is where i am completely lost
uh i'm losing it too because the uh chat is is firing early um we appreciate the chat um
uh kanish what are your thoughts i mean mean, a couple, a couple of lions picks here, lions at two. Uh,
what are we,
uh,
what are we thinking here?
Are you actually at the,
uh,
Ford field domed right now?
Oh yeah.
No,
this is,
well,
you know,
we're having a good time here.
Nothing wrong with that.
But,
uh,
I mean,
first,
of course,
lines trade for a first round pick for the first time in fucking my
lifetime. And the team wins the super bowl. So they, it's the last pick in the round, but, um, I mean, first, of course, Lions trade for a first-round pick for the first time in fucking my lifetime, and the team wins the Super Bowl,
so it's the last pick in the round.
But, no, I think that's where, you know, this is the first draft where I can
remember where, like, the fading the quarterbacks,
which has never worked out in any realm whatsoever,
is actually looking to be, and things could change,
but looking to be where we could see a top 10
quarterback list,
which is unheard of
unless one of them sneak in at the letter F.
I thought for a
while my deepest fears of
Malik Willis at two
was real. That doesn't appear
to be the case anymore, but
I think it adds a different
element where when you don't have, even though you have some QB-needy teams,
the QB class being so light with high-end talent
that you could see a top 10 without a quarterback,
which is insanity in the modern NFL.
Yeah, it'd be weird, I feel like, at this point,
to see one based off of all that we're hearing.
So, Trayvon Walker's team, do we feel that there's anything there?
Should we be hedging out of anything like that, Connor?
I know we have positions that we got months ago that look very different.
I still think that you made a top pick last year to bring in a franchise quarterback
that you still have needs along the offensive line.
They might not be your highest priority of needs, but protecting that seems to make a ton of sense but again we can't argue with well what we're hearing
from jacksonville what the market is telling us uh trayvon walker is pretty much unbettable at
this point um do you think that there's any way to should we be hedging out of any of that or
anything else that we need to get down to the top of the board or should we kind of continue with
the rest of the top five no i think that right now it's it should be most most of your action should be on walker here or hutchinson over one
and a half i still think that's playable at pretty much i mean up to minus 300 minus 400 at this
point in my opinion because what we heard this morning from peter king was expect a surprise
out of jacksonville schefter doubled down then in the afternoon basically saying i'd be really
surprised to see it be hutchinson at this point And then we know basically that Trent Balky, the GM wants Walker, and then the head coach,
Doug Peterson wants Icky Aquanum. So if those two guys really want, basically those are the top guys
on their board. And then the only guys who really want Aiden Hutchinson are the owner and some of
the coaching staff. So I think that it would take basically the ownership stepping in for it not to be Walker or
at this point uh and I guess after the Jags like already decided to keep on bulky instead of
bringing in a new regime and trusting Trent bulky basically in their I guess near-term like short-term
future uh I don't really see them stepping in at this point so I think that Walker is I mean mean i'm very confident in going one yeah i feel good about that jd i mean i want to
get your thoughts before we kick it to connection detroit um i think a lot of the steam that we've
seen in the marketplace you know i think we maybe some of us disagree with this a little bit
on like you know came on tibideau going number two there's been a lot of steam in the last
48 hours or so that that had been happening That to me felt like when the market was still thinking Hutchinson was going one.
How confident are you that Hutchinson is the pick there?
Do you think that they do something cute?
Do you think that they really like Tibbs more than Hutchinson?
Because I think that the market was kind of thinking that that was going to be
with Hutchinson off the board, if that makes sense.
So that was going to be a choice between Walker and Thibodeau,
and they liked Thibodeau more than Walker.
They did do extensive research in him during the draft process,
but I always find it easier to ignore the rumors that come up
in the last week, week and a half of the draft.
And this is one that has popped up just recently,
and thus I'm still practically ignoring it,
especially because the way it seems like the top five
is working out is that even the beat writers are saying yes this team will take this player
but it's because they're not accounting for a player that's higher on the board to be there
because even they don't know what's happening right like i think you go all the way down to
five seven even like with the falcons the falcons writers are telling you kyle hamilton and whatnot
because they're not expecting tibideau to be there when like i think there's a pretty good shot tibideau's there and so i'm actually
ignoring like what teams could do and trying to find out instead who they're higher on to begin
with because if the jets for instance before are on neil or kwanu i think there's a great chance
both are there for them and so that's the way i'm looking at this. And so I still am of belief it's 80%,
85% Hutchinson over Tibbs. And like, that's the other name that's getting thrown out as the
alternative. Uh, conditionally they run it up to the table. Cause we've heard that from the podium.
We've heard that from even Daniel Jeremiah today, that if Hutchinson's on the board at two,
that that's a, uh, absolute lock pick quickly for the lions. And I don't know if that's him saying
that's what he would do in that scenario
or what do you think?
I mean, you're plugged in.
Here's a couple of things.
One is last week, it was Thursday, a sharp group,
that legitimate betting syndicate went around
and got every single Tibbs to go to the Lions bet that they could.
They were asking multiple groups to get
down for them the price crashed uh they were trying to get every single dollar they could
on thibodeau too now in the past is draft info 100 from all the stuff no not the other thing i
would be concerned is the lions are not a leak organ they have john dorsey who remember when he
was had like the leading the Browns organization
with the Baker Mayfield thing.
He leaked every quarterback on earth.
He just enjoys lying.
He's a hire up there.
He wants to play the media.
I could definitely see them leaking something false.
But they did their homework on Thibodeau.
They absolutely put in the work.
The beat writers think that they're interested in him.
Ed is one of those,
I'm just going to have to believe it when I see. I did not wager on it. Personally,
I will believe that the Lions are going to pass on Hutchinson and Dan Campbell's going to pass on Hutchinson when I see it. It's not an organization with a lot of leaks. It's not
a source that I believe they trust anything coming out of it um again people
bet some real real legit serious money on it for me it's a pass I I gun to my head I think they
take Hutchinson but there's no doubt that there's there's some people in respectable in the market
that think it's them you know yeah Evan sounds like you agree if If Hutch is on the board, he's the player. Yeah. I love this comment from Eric.
Five-foot-four Daigle talking in definitive falsehoods yet?
Can't wait.
Listen, I lived through seven months of this, okay?
So, no, I'm kidding.
And also, he's not five-foot-four.
What are you, 5'10"?
I'm 10.
Yeah, he's not even that short.
So, be nice eric okay
these louise
tough scene uh did you guys notice that on draft kings they took down the uh exact order bets
and they turned them into like like they they created their own parlays. Yeah. And like none of them are like worth betting.
All garbage.
All garbage.
Yeah.
Yeah.
It's all rough.
Yeah.
This is again why the exact order is
a way that you could
really make some money.
For sure.
It looks like they just
took it away.
This is why having
a multitude of options
gives you the best way
to approach this
because there are
some friendly books
out there that will
they'll limit you in a massive way. we've experienced some of that stuff where they'll
put you on the spinning wheel of death and you know chop your steaks in a drastic way and then
instantly move the line but they'll let you get down a little bit on it and yeah it's uh you know
it's interesting to how they react to this versus you know typical sides in total so uh then we move
to three we feel pretty good about three my intentions are but i feel like we have to really kind of suss out the top five here uh we feel good about hutchinson
at two uh connor give me your thoughts here at three another team that has two picks we hear a
little we've heard a lot of names to the texans the texans with a you know patriots style front
office here nick cesario's there um again it's a mix of, you know,
youth group and this is where it gets interesting. This is where shit gets really interesting.
Right. Well, because, you know, we have three and 13 and I think over the last couple of weeks, some of the names that were at 13 have moved into the talk at three and it gets really muddy
because like, all right, Stingley wasn't as, you know, a cross off. Now all of a sudden,
oh, Stingley's in play at 13. Well, now is Stingley in play at three?
Like we've had all this kind of in the last couple of weeks, Connor.
Yeah, I mean, there's some legitimate info today saying that Stingley is like very viable
for them at three.
And then even some, you know, guys in the bigger media have been saying that he's been
getting around as a name to like watch for.
But then again, we also saw like a couple of days before that, the same kind of cycle
with Sauce Gardner being like, oh, like Sauce is in play now at three as well.
So I think that it's certainly in the realm of possibilities
for either of those corners to go.
But then again, they also need help in the trenches.
I think a guy like Evan Neal would be a great fit for them too.
So I think those are the three guys that I've kind of narrowed it down to at least.
I mean, I think Aquanu is in play too,
but just from basically the buzz that I've heard,
I think that those three guys are kind of my top three at three.
Forget about that.
Let's real quick.
Kanish, we need a 10-second intermission for a statement on you.
Since my beloved boss of Celtics and Evan's beloved Jason Tatum, we just handled business there with the Brooklyn Nets.
Fraudulent Nets team.
They'll be playing a real team next round.
The world champs.
Celtics out round two janice puts
them out great they beat an old kd and you know the uh ben simmons is you know ghost and
next round celtics out bucks and four evan talk to me about the texans
i don't know i mean like i'm just admitting like admitting, like I'm not going to pretend to know.
I think Derek Stingley is very much in play.
I talked to Lance Zierlein the other day.
He's rooted in Texas.
You know, he's rooted in Houston.
And he was saying, he told me that he thinks that the Texans could go a specific way at three,
maybe offensive line with a Quanu or Neil, and then trade up into the number six spot with the Panthers,
who we know want to trade out.
So, I mean, the Texans could get very aggressive here
because they love Stingley.
He's like, they love Stingley.
All right.
Yeah, this is such a hard team because I feel like we were offensive line
a couple weeks ago, and then it's like they're very much in play to be one, two, three edge rushers,
and now we're having corners in the mix.
It's like they're really hard because I think some of the rumors are muddied.
Well, one thing to keep in mind is that the Texans, their head coach obviously is Lovey Smith,
who historically has run like a bunch of Tampa and Cover 2,
and they didn't necessarily prioritize defensive back play
because of their system.
But they wound up last year under Lovey Smith running a lot of man coverage,
and Nick Cesario, their GM, he's the guy who's got his fingers on the button.
He comes from New England.
They would pay money for defensive backs.
They would draft them early um
and i i'm buying that buzz yeah when lovey smith was asked in his conference as well what he thinks
about his cornerbacks room he even said it needs to improve we need to make this shit better that's
why i keep coming back to gardner and stingley and just the fact that we know for a fact one team has at least one i believe it's two for sure
have stingley over gardner i think it's kind of easy to pinpoint those teams as the texans and
the seahawks and so for my first trifecta that's why i keep coming back to trayvon and then hudgenson
and then either gardner or stingley but it does get off the rails there.
There's no shot that those guys are there at 13, like you said, with the trade-up.
Whereas you can still improve, especially if you're not,
they still have the Mario Tonsa left tackle.
If you're not looking for an out-and-out left tackle,
you're looking to improve other positions on the long.
There's probably some guys there that can help you do that,
even if you can't mix a trade-up at 13. 13 no shot stingley or gardner are going to be there so for the record uh joey kanish has now uh pronounced yannis as giannis and laramie tunsell as la remi
you know accent here i don't think people are picking that up,
but it's probably just the wifi. You never know. It's spotty here. I'm in the basement.
It thinks you can't vocalize when you're laying down. So I get, I understand.
The jets are in a very similar position, four and 10. We feel like, you know, it's been
receiver edge rusher the entire time um i know that you don't necessarily
think that that's a lock either there obviously are lots of debate around is the receiver at four
is the receiver at 10 if they had a guy they wanted at four they may as well take him because
there's a good chance that maybe two or three receivers come off between the next pick at 10
i was fairly certain it was going to be a quantity at number four. The Jets, both off seasons have prioritized for better or worse,
ensuring an easier life for Zach Wilson.
And more importantly,
themselves on five years of Zach Wilson's rookie contract.
That's the very much, that's the focus.
Even Dane Brugler on Monday morning,
we heard audio where he made, he said that NFL execs,
a lot of them actually believe that Makai Vecton has played his last down for the Jets.
And Icky just squeaks in so perfectly,
whether it be left tackle or right tackle.
George Fant played amazing last year,
but also George Fant is 30,
and they will probably allow him to play one more year
at that position before deciding
whether or not to extend him long-term.
No matter which way you cut it, though,
Icky could fit in behind him in 2023 or right tackle immediately if they extend fan and so it works
out perfectly and it just makes so much more sense than Thibodeau ever has the issue is that
that may be under the assumption Evan Neal has gone at three I think the Jets beat reporters
believe Neal goes at three and so they aren't even considering Neal with Icky.
And that's where I get lost because I always thought it was going to be
Nicky Icky for sure,
but apparently it could be Neal over a quantum.
And so that's where I'm at right now,
but I very much believe they go offensive line here.
Evan,
what are your thoughts about that?
I mean,
I'm just hoping for this Jameson Williams hit because if we get him top
five, like –
Let's go.
Like, you ain't going to see me again.
Like, I'm going to buy a boat,
and, like, we're going to cruise to the middle of the ocean.
That's number five.
That could very much come into play number five.
Yeah.
I mean, well, especially with the Kadarius-Tony stuff,
we also know that the Giants,
at least with one of their top seven picks,
they want to trade out.
Well, I don't know.
I mean, Dagle, you seem to think that you know a lot
about what the Jets are going to do.
Could they still take Jamison Williams at four?
So it seems like after Drake London was cleared,
that paved the way for them to not fight over Jameson but
instead take the fallback option at number 10 between Jameson Garrett Wilson and Drake London
almost seems like Garrett Wilson is the one that slides unbelievably between those two now but I
think they're just going to take that especially after Becton didn't report to quote-unquote
voluntary workouts like the one person that
needed to report did not and is still reportedly out of shape and Joe Douglas when you when you
heard that conference afterwards he is very clearly fed up and that's why I think it's easy
to pick an offensive line mirror over the smoke that is the defensive line because they were
already in on Icky over Thibodeau, certainly. Like you have to listen, not just hear the words,
but listen. They were interested in Icky, but intrigued by Thibodeau. That means they have to
talk themselves out of Icky to get to the point where they draft Kayvon. At the same time though,
we heard the smoke today came out of nowhere about Jermaine Johnson at number four. And also
that mentioned Jermaine Johnson over Kayvon Thibodeau. So if that is the case, again,
he might be over that second person,
but he's not over Icky or Neal.
And so it always goes back, no matter what situation,
to an offensive lineman, and that's the way I view it.
Yeah, you can have guys very much in play at 38 as well for the Jets from an edge rusher standpoint.
If guys like, what was the kid from Penn State, Evacati,
you could have the Mofay kid.
Those guys could very much be there at 38
and not really have an edge need there in the top 10.
So yeah, the Giants, let's move to that
because that is something that I feel like
with the Tony News,
they have been kind of put up there
into the mix of receiver.
We just didn't have a lot of receiver talk
for the Giants,
say, 72 hours ago, Kanish.
What are your thoughts here on what they do with five and seven?
There was some info I heard this week that's kind of making the rounds
that they would go Charles Cross.
I think there's at five and six has been the names
where I know McShay tweeted this out.
I had heard this before he tweeted it, that he was either going to go five
or either the Giants are going to take him at five,
or the Panthers, if they stay there and hold on, are going to take him at six,
or the Giants would then take him back on the flip around at seven
if they ended up.
If somebody they love, Sauce Gardner, fell to five,
then maybe they take him at five, and you'll try and get back around at seven
if the Panthers are going to trade back.
Long story short, that's a lot of words to give you that i think charles cross under
seven and a half uh which is out there at a lot of places um even at minus 130 minus 140 i think
has to be a play um he's just it i'd heard this comparison that brian double loves that he's like
the best pass protecting offensive lineman in the draft, and they're going to throw the ball a ton,
same as what Carolina would want to do in their offense.
Thanks for listening to Establish the Run and being a subscriber, Kanish.
You know what?
I'm not aware of what that company is.
Kanish, I heard you're very active in the Discord.
Somebody tried to accuse me of being in there under a surrogate name.
I have no connections with that company.
But I know there was some first O-line shots that a certain service might have released.
And I think even at 8-1, if you can still get that, which is pretty widely available,
it's worth a shot.
If the Jets don't go O-line here, then I think you would look at Cross
as your preferred tackle to go five or six I don't buy that I don't buy the wide receiver I don't buy
the wide receiver thing at all even with the Kadarius Tony it's a long shot it's I don't
think they're going wide but uh you know the Giants like they need cornerback help um and
they're about to get rid of uh James Brad, like by every account. And so can they wait till there's two elite corners in this draft?
And then there's like a significant fall off.
So can the giants afford to wait past number five to number seven?
I mean, the Panthers are picking there now.
They don't need a corner, but they want to trade out.
Would a team come up and grab a corner ahead of the Giants at seven?
I mean, I don't know.
The Giants are kind of in a – well, they're in a great spot
because they have two top seven picks.
But they have to, like, try to forecast what's going to happen at number six.
Why wouldn't they just go take Sauce Gardner at five?
He's the perfect fit for W week. Martindale's defense.
They loved a week.
Martindale comes from the Rex Ryan school.
You know,
they,
they love,
they,
they play coverage and they blitz,
you know,
but you need guys who can cover.
And that's what sauce Gardner can do.
I mean,
if sauce is there at five,
I think they have to pick sauce at five,
but if sauce goes at three and it's just Stingley left,
I think maybe
they take a chance and hope that you know someone doesn't trade up at six for them and they go
offensive line and kind of take whoever over whoever like carolina wants so i think that's
probably the train of thought at least that's what i would do but again you know not really sure how
much sense that uh they make at the front office there either to condition's point that's why cross
is just hard to get away from
here because they not only in their private workouts tried them out as right tackle knowing
he worked exclusively at let test left tackle the past two years knowing it was possible to then
kick andrew thomas either way or perhaps just keep cross at right tackle if they drop draft him
but also the fact that they have prioritized and we we heard this on Jordan Ronan with the Underdog Show with Josh Norris,
they prioritize his offseason in signing athletic offensive linemen
that can move around the most,
especially help alleviate pass pressure via a short passing game.
And that is cross over Neal,
even though Neal is actually the better fit X's nose-wise.
I don't know if they care even about that.
They just rather have the tackle and the more athletic guy.
They paid up a little bit for Mark Glewinski, who was like a spark freak.
Good deal, too.
Yep.
Yeah.
They also brought in Feliciano from Buffalo, who knows Brian Dable.
But he's kind of like a – you would want him to be like your sixth guy
on the offensive line.
And I think they could kick Andrew Thomas to right tackle
if they believe that – I don't know.
This is a crazy draft, man.
And wanting to trade Tony like they're showing,
like Gettleman, Judge's decisions are not our problems.
We are done with this shit.
You know, and Dayball likes to spread it out with three and four receivers.
I mean, this is why I wouldn't totally dis you know we agree a lot we pretend that we we disagree a lot but this is why i wouldn't dismiss the possibility of the giants taking a wide
receiver early as dayball likes to spread out he loves the passing game um and you know they might
get rid of tony galladay is kind of like, you know,
if he still Sterling Shepard is coming off like a major injury. I mean, they really do need help with that position.
And day ball has, uh, Alabama ties, as we know, you know, was on that staff for a while.
You know, that he has insight to Neil, you know, that he has insight to Jamo.
Uh, we could double tap, you know, Crimson Tide guys here at five and seven.
Um, and I wouldn't be surprised here either. So it's definitely an interesting thing. I know that they liked what
they got out of Andrew Thomas last year after a rough rookie year, but again, I wouldn't rule out
the offensive line here either. It is definitely an interesting one. If you're hanging out with us
again, fill that up with questions. We'll definitely get to a spot where we can answer
anything that you have, any current looks on the board any thoughts of the panel and again i want to remind you too if you just joined
us uh four four four dot com slash plans uh we get a discount tonight 25 off live during the show
uh we'll get you a discount on our betting sub so uh six i mean that's probably the most spot
that we think everyone wants to you know trade out of everyone knows that too right so we have
to have dance partners we can't just trade out who are Everyone knows that too, right? So we have to have dance partners.
We can't just trade out. Who are some of these teams that are looking to possibly trade up,
Evan? We have multiple teams we mentioned kind of in the middle that have multiple draft picks.
We're looking at the Saints who have already made a trade to get one of these two Eagles picks. The
Eagles still have two picks. We already talked about the Texans. Like who makes sense as a dance partner to come up to six?
I think the Texans and the Saints.
But I really – I don't have strong conviction here.
Yeah.
What are the Saints doing if they get there?
They're taking a – I mean they have –
Wide out.
Wide out.
Wide out.
Or, you know what?
Or they could take a left tackle.
I mean –
Right. Turn armsteads in Miami that, you know, they could, yeah.
This is the antithesis of the draft right here. I mean,
this is kind of why we're at it's like, I don't know.
Well, they could do that. Like, I mean, that's the whole premise.
They go on four, four is the most accurate podcast last week where I use
Silva's name to bring Nick Underhill on to show him we are mutual friends.
He said that, one, he was well overweight on Olave clearly being very, very high on the Saints draft board.
And then also it seems to be their number one priority to replace Teron Armstead.
If that's the case, Cross, whether it's the Panthers or the Saints, make a lot of sense at six. Also, in my conversations with Nick,
those are the two names that he's mentioned most often.
I'm starting to become skeptical that either of those guys,
Chris Olave or Charles Cross, is even going to make it to their picks.
Which is why Olave's number is still over under 17.5.
They should have put it at like 15 and a half to to make it safe because
17 and a half is a really really good number to play yeah and then what we talk about it being
confusing like imagine if the giants take cross at five then what the hell do the panthers do
then what the hell do the teams trading up do unless they're trading up for jmo like it gets
wild after that because i don't know who the Panthers would settle
and take if it's not crossed. Like that's, in my opinion, is the only player on their board,
maybe long shots in Malik Willis. And can he pick it in that order?
Do any of you guys still think that the Panthers are going to take a QB?
Yeah, I think we're all out on that, right? I think that's important to clear the air because
there was a ton of buzz earlier, you know, whatever, a couple of weeks ago that they were going to take a quarterback and
it kind of made sense.
I have absolutely no idea what they're going to do at the position,
maybe trade for Jimmy G.
But I don't know.
I don't know what's happened in the last week,
but it seems like Ben McAdoo has more strings to pull than Matt rule.
Like somehow he's gotten control of this pick and that's why he's getting
connected to mid league Willis.
Cause that's a traits individual that he would gladly pick over kenny pickett yeah it's uh you're not going to save
your job with any of these quarterbacks here and uh it's interesting to see the matt rule thing
around him having final say and how that really plays itself out on draft day um i can't imagine
you know i just think that those ties were loose the entire time but tepper went to pitts he
recruited you know like rule recruited in the temple.
Like, I don't know.
I feel like that's the stuff that we want to grasp onto in February when we're trying to get down on some advantageous numbers ahead of time.
And it just, you know, starts to become narrative driven and you tell yourself a story.
But there really isn't anything good there from a football making decision.
While we are still on the topic of the visionary Ben McAdoo,
we should note that quarterbacks that he has loved in the past,
including Patrick Mahomes and Josh Knott,
those are traits quarterbacks.
And Malik Willis is a traits quarterback.
Kenny Pickett is not a traits quarterback.
What if he definitively announced Sam Darnold as QB1 because they knew they were going to take Malik Willis not a traits quarterback, you know? So what if,
what if he definitively announced Sam Donald is QB one,
because they knew they were going to take Malik Willis and sit in behind
Sam Donald for at least a couple,
a couple of games.
Ooh,
that would be,
look at that.
Again,
this is where it gets ugly.
This is where it gets questionable and ugly.
Yep.
Yep.
Well,
well,
because I think that we,
I mean,
I don't know.
Do we all agree? Is there a consensus here that we think that the Panthers are like I think that we – I mean, I don't know. Do we all agree?
Is there a consensus here that we think that the Panthers are, like,
desperate to trade out?
I mean, they don't have a second or third-round pick,
and they have so many holes to fill.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I totally agree.
I mean, I know that we're not talking about defense,
and they spent an entire draft, I believe, two drafts ago
with nothing but defenders.
You know, they added a first round corner last year so it makes
sense that they do something to add to the offensive line uh but you know like again not
having a second and third those are nfl starters like you you want your second and third guys
second and third round picks to be starters like those are starters on good teams not having them when you have a you know a roster like the panthers have is a problem so it makes sense for
them to want to bounce back into maybe a stronger draft to next year you know get something next
year as well so who knows uh atlanta is another one of these teams i think the next two are very
similar where atlanta and seattle have so many holes to fill there are things that make the most
sense to us i think because of when you look at the depth chart
from an Atlanta pass catching standpoint,
outside of Kyle Pitts, it is just a wasteland.
So it makes a lot of sense
why we're seeing receivers get mocked there quite often.
We're seeing that kind of,
the market's kind of dictating that as well.
It's a matter of who's there.
We're seeing a lot of Drake London talk here
in the last couple of days,
led by Daniel Jeremiah being that's kind of their, seems to be their guy.
A guy that seemed to be pigeonholed as an option for the Jets at 10. That doesn't seem to be the case. But again, I would not be surprised with anything that the Falcons do based off of what
their roster is going to show. I agree. I think it's been like like the the group think the common assumption is that
they're they're 100 gonna go wide receiver i'm not totally in that that bug i i definitely
possibility um but as you're saying depending on how you know the the this first you know some
picks shake out i think you could see them going a number of different directions depending on
which defensive lineman falls if
Thibodeau's still on the board here do they add him if a tackle falls could they possibly bolster
the offensive line as you said they've got so many holes and also not probably it's a team that's
you know if you're looking for a longer vision isn't going to contend uh and then Ridley would
come back off as you know the one year uh you know suspension for a few shitty parlays, that you'd be adding back to the wide receiver room the next year.
So it doesn't look as bad as it would a year from now with Pitts and Ridley.
So could I see them going wide receiver?
Absolutely.
But I think there's definitely more possibilities
than I think a lot of the mocks are just to think right now
puts it out there.
I don't want to besmirch the parlay lord who's in the house,
but I heard the condition that Ridley was tailing you on the parlay side.
Is there any truth to that?
All he had to do was send me, you know,
obviously he's betting big in a couple of accounts all the way to Calvin.
Let's make some money together.
It should be a DM.
Why, you know, it didn't have to go down like this.
Who's betting?
Why are you betting in your own name? I know you like eight like eight leggers i just wasn't sure if that was you i heard you had
some i mean look robin hey he's got my i don't i don't hate it that's why also number eight is why
this draft goes off the rails in a hurry even if you do figure out five six and seven because
again i mentioned this on last week's show but we truly and every year it said where oh this is a crazy draft you never know what's going to happen this really is
unprecedented territory right just because of having the most athletic defensive tackle ever
one of the most athletic players ever at the combine and jordan davis and jermaine johnson
what now do you do with a team with every deed in the book like even a couple years ago they
drafted aj terrell and as great of a player terrell is he hasn't mattered whatsoever for that defense has not made a dent at all and so what do
they do especially with a dean peas at dc who also appreciates versatile safeties like kyle hamilton
could bring so it's genuinely across the entire board what they could add here yeah it's a mess
cutter any thoughts or leans currently is there any value in the marketplace on taking a position for the Falcons outside of the court, outside
of receiver? Because I feel like that's definitely the favorites, but I don't feel like any of us are
very locked on that being the pick. No, I grabbed something like plus 200, like a while ago. I think
that's closer to even money now. So I think at this point, Kanish brought up some good points,
kind of just, I would not be surprised actually, if this is like a completely off the wall pick, like, you know,
all their top guys on their board are picked and they draft like,
like you said, like Jordan Davis, or, you know, maybe some,
someone just like completely way down the board that we expect to be in the
teens as like their top player on the board.
It would not surprise me at all.
So, but on the other hand though,
I think picking a guy like Jameson Williams does make sense because they
don't need, I mean, they're not going to win like in the first couple of games.
So they don't need Jameson Williams to come back in the first,
like half of the season,
quarter of the season,
they can let him return.
And then when you get,
you know,
if you get Ridley back,
you know,
then your wide receiver room is like,
I mean,
you're cooking with gas with Ridley,
you know,
Jameson Williams pits.
Like that's actually like a real offense.
If that were to happen,
I mean,
Ridley could obviously be,
you know,
traded as well.
Arthur Smith unlocks mariotta and
we're uh fighting for third place in the uh nfc west or south in tennessee when arthur smith
was running the titans offense like they benched marcus mariotti so that's this is a really tough
situation they could take a quarterback at eight like They could take a quarterback at eight. I think it's relatively low probability,
but you can't be surprised if they take Malik Willis at eight.
It's the same premise that I have for why I think the Steelers thing does make sense for Willis,
because then you have a built-in same style of offense.
You build that mobile quarterback offense around Trubisky.
You do the same thing with Mariota
and then slide in the rookie when he's there.
It would not shock me at all. Nine nine against seattle ton of issues uh daigle i mean they have uh an
awful defense they have a no quarterback anymore um you know that they want to establish the hell
out of it um they could go you know hog molly up front uh just you know, Trevor Penning's a guy that we've talked to being available.
There's going to be so many better players than Trevor Penning available
though at nine.
Again, Seattle's another team that we know can go crazy off the board.
They definitely have their own system.
They aren't drafting off of a consensus board.
Historically Schneider and Carroll have really kind of done some walkie
things, especially early in the draft.
What do you think Seattle does here?
Kenneth Walker,
Rashad.
You are also civil on Devin Lloyd early.
And despite the fact Lloyd has fallen the past couple of weeks,
no one's really talked about him at all.
It's still really a possibility here.
Like I think the Kobe deed is even a possibility.
If they prefer him, if he's higher on their draft board, I think Desmond Ritter, I think the Kobe deed is even a possibility. Uh, if they prefer him,
if he's higher on their draft board,
I think Desmond Ritter,
I think Desmond Ritter.
I don't,
I don't disagree with Daniel at all.
Like I don't,
I'm telling you,
these are real possibilities and that's if they don't go Trevor
pinning.
I still think they establish it with a poor offense blind,
adding to that units.
But again,
those are players.
I genuinely would not be shocked at all.
If we hear their name called Desmond Ritter as well over Malik Wilson,
Kenny Pickett.
I mean, that is scorching hot.
I mean like Nicoby Dean's over under right now, it's like 30.
Desmond Ritter way.
One point was 25 to one.
We know that.
Of course they don't care about that at all.
I'm just saying that, you know, like some point someone maybe would have
gotten an inkling of that, at the same time like i mean
the desmond ritter thing is fine you guys played 25 to 1 uh doesn't rid of first qb i think that's
at like like fairly alive i don't know about a nine but i think if it gets to the late teens i
mean anything can happen at that point sales are an interesting team they have 40 41 at the top of
the second if they decided they wanted to do something. So like, that's where the Ritter thing to me is like,
if they were actually interested,
they have something to maybe get back into the back end of the first to do
something there versus taking him there. But again, like to Dagle's point,
like we're laughing, but I'm not laughing at Dagle. I'm laughing going, yeah.
I mean, it's the frigging Seahawks. You know, Evan,
I don't know what you think. I agree. I think Lloyd's a terrific football player.
He does feel like kind of that Pete Carroll bread and butter type of guy. I just, I don't know what you think. I agree. I think Lloyd's a terrific football player. He does feel like kind of that's Pete Carroll, bread and butter type of guy.
I just, I don't know what to do with his team.
I've kind of locked in on Penning and I've almost just ignored anything else.
And like, that'll be my mock draft pick and I'll move on.
And I don't know what to do with him.
Well, again, I think that if Kayvon Thibodeau makes it here,
they're going to take him.
You know, but I don't know if he's going to make it. Kayvon Thibodeau's draft projection, they're going to take him. You know, but I don't know if he's going to make it.
Kayvon Thibodeau's draft projection right now is all over the place.
He could go as early as two, but I don't think he gets past nine.
No, that's a good point.
Yes, I filled a big order for somebody on a Stingley under nine and a half,
and they said that there's no shot that the Seahawks would pass on Stingley
if he got all the way to nine.
If he doesn't, I think this is the first real Malik Willis potential possibility
where if you're going to go into a season with Drew Locke,
he kind of fits the mold of what Seattle had had at quarterback with Russell Wilson.
I don't think they're going to take Malik Willis.
I think this is the first slot where I would say that it wouldn't surprise me
if he went here. But also as, as you've mentioned,
they were kind of like a Raiders with Mike Mayock where they don't,
they're going to take their guy, no matter what,
how the rest of the league values them,
even if it's 20, 30 spots or two rounds higher,
if it's Rashad Penny,
then a lot of people think that the guy's going to go if they like somebody.
Uh, and they're usually not very open about who that is. Uh,
they're going to, they don't care about the pick number.
They're going to take them. So not, not only Rashad Penny,
but look to Jordan Brooks as well.
Like they,
they genuinely do not care about your board.
Uh,
they have a player graded high.
That's where they're going.
Yeah.
That's why I,
I'm still not ruling out Devin Lloyd to go number nine to Seattle,
like to replace,
um,
uh,
uh,
Bobby Wagner.
Yeah.
And,
and to give them some,
uh,
pass rush help as well,
because Devin Lloyd,
uh,
commercial pass.
Can issue snuck one in there, though.
I mean, Stingley under 9.5, still widely available.
I mean, is that just like a banger at this point or what?
I mean, I have under 12.5, under 11.5, under 10.5.
Is it still very much playable at 9.5?
Yeah, I'd still play 9.5.
I mean, the logic in me of knowing what he's been through
the past two seasons
and the injuries and the slack, it's hard, but all of the,
all of the smoke, all of the info from everywhere is that,
that multiple teams like them, people aren't worried about it.
Athletic had a big piece on him today about him battling through it.
And the LSU coaching staff talking about how highly they loved him and
telling teams you know already worked on that so again I and especially in a draft where you know
you've got your two premium corners I would still play a nine and a half a juice nine and a half
I like it all right we worked our way through the top 10. How about some team and player marriages that you think make sense
that could be there?
Again, this is a very difficult process in this type of draft
because we don't necessarily know what's going to happen.
We know like, hey, Ohio State's receivers to Washington
has been something that they've pegged.
We have that kind of Rivera thing where he likes those guys.
He also went to the Kyle Hamilton pro day as well.
So I feel like that makes a lot of sense. Anything like that, Connor, that's still on the board,
maybe something we can take advantage of in the, in the market still from a player and team matchup
standpoint. Admittedly, honestly, not too much right here for me. I mean, do, do you guys have
any like specific team player pairings just because there's so many domino effects at the top? Like
I can project a, I mean, I think that, you know an olave to washington makes a lot of sense but if gary wilson's still on the
board at 11 i mean do they pick wilson over over a lot of it i mean and he was at that pro day too
so it's not like it's i think that's still very much live as well so i mean that would be an easy
one but at the same time i don't really have too much of a lean on this for the early standpoint
and what do you think about washington i've read some stuff too i think it was in the athletic
around what they like to do last year with
Landon Collins.
They didn't get really what they wanted out of it from that,
like big safety in the way that they used him,
but like they really liked that style of defense and they got some really
good returns in the second half of the season at that position.
Kyle Hamilton is kind of that unicorn player where he can kind of fill in
and be a box safety, you know, a guy that you could put in and cover big slots.
Like he is a guy that we know we kind of undervalue the position in the league at this point.
But like this is a football player, a guy that just is going to be a winner, I think, on Sundays.
He's terrific.
Do you think Washington makes sense?
And if not, where does he fall?
Right before this, we did an active or a live mock draft with uh ben standing
at uh establish the run that's a at establish the run on twitter and establish the run.com on
the internet wherever you can find your internet soak that in ben standing to kyle hamilton for Ben Standing took Kyle Hamilton for the Washington Commanders.
And we know that Ben Standing has a very long history.
People are paying for that, Nick.
People pay for that kind of crap info.
They're not taking Hamilton.
It's a free podcast.
We all know that you listen.
So I would just go with that.
I mean, Ben Standing is very good at this he covers uh the commanders
and he has like actual intel kyle hamilton 11 to washington i mean speaking of hamilton too i mean
like i know i think we all got down at six and a half and eight and a half on the overs but now
we're seeing some 11 and a half 12 and a half i think that's too high especially with washington
you know kind of lingering there um i mean them them and potentially even the Vikings or Texans after.
I think the top end of his range.
I know that he ran a 4-7 his pro day and ran really slow at the combine.
He's a really good player, though.
Exactly.
And it only matters to a certain point.
Yeah, do you want to spend a top five pick on that guy at a devalued position?
Probably not.
But, I mean, at 11, I think that's more than fine.
Yeah, that's a good point uh dagle any any
team player pairings that you like here down into the middle part of the draft uh the cowboys are
sort of at the end but i'm pretty sure we've heard them whittled down at 24 to zion johnson and kenyan
green i believe they're higher on z Zion because although Beata should not be guaranteed
the starting center spot again, and that's where Green would play, the Cowboys know that left guard
is wide open, and that's where they would immediately plug Zion in at. And so I'm pretty
sure they are higher there than Green. And so that's where I'm at right now at that pick.
But again, if Traylon Burks gets there as as well and we've seen burks mocked to philadelphia then then all bets are off because
that's when jerry jones steps in jerry jones steps back out of the process a lot but he could very
well step in for the splash that's what i was going to ask what happens if burks is available
does he make sense there because the one thing I thought, because I heard,
you know,
Daniel Jeremiah today was talking about John Dotson being a guy that maybe doesn't make it out of the twenties.
So that maybe he's in that mix for that Philadelphia pick.
And maybe he goes ahead of Burks.
Cause the way that Jeremiah was kind of,
you know,
summarizing the receivers was Dotson was clearly in that group.
And then like Burks is kind of maybe the last guy in the group.
So it just varies to me. I'm high on Dotson was clearly in that group. And then like Burks is kind of maybe the last guy in the group. So it's just very interesting to me.
I'm high on Dotson, but I'm interested to see if maybe he's that guy
and that pushes Burks down.
And then that Cowboys pick gets real interesting.
The receivers and those guys at the end of the draft got real interesting
because they finally separated themselves.
We got a lot of last minute medicals today.
And the McGinn series, as well as a couple others from like Bruce Feldman.
And we found out that apparently like the NFL is all down on George Pickens, for instance. at medicals today and the mcginn series as well as a couple others from like bruce feldman and we
found out that apparently like the nfl is all down on george pickens for instance so okay no more
squeezing pickens into the first round now just put john donson in that place instead we're also
seeing kyler gordon being valued over andrew booth okay kick out andrew booth in the first round now
squeezing kyler gordon so i do think the player pool is getting down to 34 35 players when it was
a lot more just last week but again pinpointing is where I think it's a disaster right now. that they draft. Dotson does not fit that like size speed combination. I mean, that they seem to, especially at the top of the draft,
like to have guys that kind of check those,
you know,
relative athletic scores,
those spark guys historically.
So that makes it a little interesting too.
They're another team with two picks here.
I mean,
I think the Packers are going to take a receiver with one of their picks.
I don't know whether it be where they have a 22 and 28.
Yep.
I mean, but I think it's really hard to predict.
You know, I've been on trail on Burks to go there.
I think he makes a lot of sense.
Again, you know, picking up a lot of the slack from all those rub routes
that they would throw to Devontae Adams.
I think they would probably have to take him at 22.
I don't know.
But I could also see him falling.
I mean, he's a very – he might be the most polarizing receiver
out of all the receivers this year.
And then I think they go defense with their other pick.
They're a tough team to predict, man.
They could also go offensive line, I think.
Established the runs Anthony Mikko
and made some disparaging remarks around Burks transitioning to tight end.
Who?
Eventually.
No.
No, but I don't know who that is so you know i will say let me as far as a team connection and i know the
son of a bitch to my left on the screen is gonna bring up that they mentioned it one and it's a
team that i will give them the credit that he mentioned has telegraphed picks in the past,
and that's Steelers and Malik Willis.
And it's, I mean, there are very few teams on the board who will have a pick like last year in the Najee Harris pick
that's in, that's, you know, not a top five pick.
And you can, they're basically putting out who they're going to take.
And then they actually take that guy.
That's become such a rarity in the NFL,
especially for anything outside of the top five, top ten,
where you can be so – it's such public knowledge that a team – And then there are beat writers.
I mean, the beat writers essentially work for the organization.
Yep.
They're like the Jen Psaki or the like the jen saki you know or
the uh kaylee mcanae or whatever yeah yeah yeah sarah huckabee sanders for the government you
know but they actually work for the steelers organization even like jerry dulac who's covered
the steelers for forever uh he was like if naji har Harris doesn't make it to 24, they're going to take Pat Fryermuth
with the 24th pick. They wound up getting both of them. It's incredible.
And there's really only one way to bet that because Malik Willis is over under,
is pretty much 12 and a half universally at minus 110, minus 120. That's fine,
but it's much safer to just bet plus 260 for instance on a points bet or plus
200 anywhere else for the steelers to draft malik willis in particular and that's the way you get
the best odds on it yeah straight up makes sense yeah there's another good uh team to player pairing
that i think has been really uh highly debated here breeze hall and the bills i mean are we
buying that or no i mean originally i thought it you it had some legs, but the more I dig into it, I'm not really sure.
I know that Daigle got down in a good way to play it, though.
You hit some longer odds, right, Daigle?
He has one out.
One out and it's the Bills at 25.
That's it.
His over-under evens 40.
So they don't think he's going to the first round either.
But since he has one out on FanDuel, I still believe it's 6-1.
And so I just played Brees Hall to Bill six to one.
That's the best way to get it. No other teams
drafting it.
Yeah. Yeah. I don't think we see a running back.
I think that like minus 300
or minus 400 at this point. Running back
outside of Brees Hall sprinkles for
RB1.
I had a long, long, long shot
and I don't think it's going to, it's a value
loser, but there was a huge price on James Cook because he's such a great receiving back.
But I don't think –
I don't think so.
I got the –
But you didn't get Kenneth Walker at like solid plus money for a while,
like plus 200.
I got the long shot sprinkle on James Cook too,
and it wasn't enough to even matter.
But I got the long shot too just James Cook too, and it wasn't enough to even matter, but I got the long shot too,
just because seeing that he kept being brought in
for top 30 visits,
and then Isaiah Spiller pretty much fell out of the process.
And so I was like, okay, well now we're down to three.
It's only Hall, Walker, and James Cook now
that teams are actually deciding as the first back on day two.
And so I sprinkle a little bit too.
I don't know if it comes to fruition at all, but yeah, I got it.
I don't think Kenneth Walker is your traditional three down back that's going to be out there for
every play now is he a better runner than James Cook of course but in terms of uh if you're going
to take a running back high I want a guy that can play every single snap I want a Christian
McCaffrey type and I think Cook's a guy that at least like you never have to take him off the
field he can pass by and catch he's got speed. So he's not – he didn't have the production of either of those two guys,
even in the same realm.
But I don't know.
If you can still find a cook – I mean, I played 80-1.
I think if you can still find a 40 or a 50, it's at least worth a small shot.
Comment from Twitter.
Why does everyone have nice setups and look professional
except for the one guy laying on his couch?
That's it.
There's only one man of the people here who's not a company man
trying to do it for us.
The only man of freedom here, Joey K, that's why.
Unbelievable.
Yeah, you were like, I think it was minus two and a quarter for you to be laying down
today and i thought that that was like the best on the board right you think i'm gonna do uh you
know an hour plus uh sitting at a desk i don't think so uh kanish let me ask you have you heard
anything on the lions number 32 pick because i have heard at least to open the second day
they're interested in sam howe and if that's the second day, they're interested in Sam Howe.
And if that's the case,
wouldn't they be interested at the end of the first day just to make sure
they get that fifth year option?
Like,
is there any truth to that?
I,
I,
you know what?
I don't,
as far as which quarterback would be there.
I,
you know,
I don't,
I,
but as far as could I see them taking a quarterback there,
especially if someone,
absolutely.
And it's for the exact reason you said.
It's what the Ravens did with Lamar Jackson,
trading up for that last pick in the first round.
If you're going to take a guy, that's where you want him for that option.
So who – again, I know they did their work on Willis and Pickett,
but I don't have a great feel on which quarterback it depending on
which you know from fell which one would be there um I personally would love a Matt Corral at 32
uh I'm not as high on Sam Howell um but no it wouldn't surprise me if they win if you can find
uh you know if you're looking for the exact most places only have first pick but if you can find a
you know an exact on the lines to take exact, most places only have first pick, but if you can find a, you know,
an exact on the lines to take a quarterback with that 32 pick at a higher
price, it's worth a sprinkle for sure.
Last year, Evan, Eric Stokes was a moneymaker for us, right?
You were on Stokes. I think it was over under, it was in the forties.
He normally cashed that for us in a big, big way that we pounded.
He also put us over on
corners in the first round. It was a print fest of a pick. I know we got a little bit of time.
We're 72 hours out or so. Do we have an Eric Stokes this year? I mean, could it be Kyler
Gordon from Washington? I mean, Washington had just been ripping defensive back hits. I mean,
they are the West Coast version of, like,
cornerback defensive back U at this point, you know,
from Buda Baker to, you know, Desmond Trufant and, I mean, Elijah Molden.
I mean, they've been banging out.
And teams, like, care about stuff like that, you know.
Like, they've been producing NFL-c NFL caliber cornerbacks on a regular basis.
So I think that that would be the guy this year.
If you want to make a comparison to Eric Stokes.
I like it.
Yeah, we see that with even off places like Central Michigan produces quality starting
offensive lineman.
Boston College is never really competitive, but they always produce a viable starting first-round draft pick
at the O-line every so often.
We got one again this year with Zion Johnson.
Connor, you've been firing, I think, probably,
and I don't want to speak for everyone,
I think that you probably have the most raw bets down
in this draft currently.
What have you bet today?
Is there anything that we can get down on currently?
Josh is talking about here over one- a half safeties i know that that's a big play for you that is priced kind of out in my opinion at this point that you're laying down some massive juice
uh we can talk to that one and is there anything you bet today maybe that anyone listening can
can tail on yeah i think a derivative of that that you can still play right now is Lewis Seen under
34 and a half right now at plus 105.
So I think that he's a ton of ties there in that in the first round with the Bengals,
with the Lions.
The Packers have been known to take safeties a little bit higher in the draft in years
past.
And he's like a little bit of more of a traditional safety compared to Daxon Hill.
There's also been a ton of buzz on Lewis Seen over the past two weeks know, he's just like a really strong player from coming from an elite defense,
basically been only positive buzz for like the last two weeks.
So I think that,
and Daniel Jeremiah mentioned,
he's a guy that's going to go way higher than expected.
I mean,
it's been basically a consistent positive buzz.
You're getting plus money on basically a first round bet.
So I think that he's a good way there over one and a half safeties right now
is already like minus 300.
Probably not bettable at this point. At the same time though, I think the Lewis seen one is probably a good way there uh over one and a half safeties right now is already like minus 300 um probably not bettable at this point uh at the same time though i think the lewis scene one is probably a good look it helps seeing too that we haven't confirmed it just yet since walter football
has that page where he has all the reports and he's gathering information from everywhere so it's
like unsourced i'm not sure where he gets it from but apparently daxton hill is moving lower down
the process because he interviewed poorly like a couple others, right?
Like this page is also where a few of those late red medical flags came from as well that did turn out to be true.
So again, unsourced, not sure where else it's coming from outside of Walter football, but Daxton Hill is apparently getting knocked down for his interviews.
That's an interesting one too. He makes a lot of sense to me for Buffalo because, you know, there's,
he could be multiple.
He can cover the slots.
They have Jordan Poyer kind of in the last year.
You know,
if you want to be able to have him backfill safety and move on from that,
that makes a lot of sense with, with Daxton Hill, but you know,
we'll have to wait and see what happens there.
I have,
I think we got plus money on him to be in the first round and I feel pretty
good about that still, but we will see.
Evan, anything that you bet today?
Today?
Yeah, anything that's out there.
I took a shot on Jermaine Johnson to go in the top five at plus 400.
But, no, I've kind of slowed down in terms of my bets.
I think I feel the night before, though, I'm going wild.
I'm emptying the clip.
I still love that during this show you can look over and see Kanish from his couch betting on his phone while we say the bets.
That's still my favorite thing that happens during this annual show.
I mean, I'm not going to let these motherfuckers in the comments
get to it before me while they're snatching it up
if we're doing the content. I'm not going to let these motherfuckers in the comments get to it before me while they're snatching it up if we're doing the content.
I'm making the bets.
There's one that I talked about today that you guys didn't necessarily like, but I think there's a better way to play it.
So you can get Jordan Davis at plus 115 to be drafted before Kenny Pickett.
So at plus money.
I think that's a good look at plus money.
I think that Jordan Davis's floor is like 14 or 15 of the Ravens or Eagles.
Can he pick it?
Uh, you know, I think just as so few outs in the top, like at the top 12, 15 picks at
this point, Carolina, we're very confident as you all agreed on are not taking quarterback.
Um, I guess Atlanta and Seattle are the two biggest wild cards in my opinion that I guess
hypothetically could, but at the end of the day, like there's been just so little buzz
on pick it outside of Carolina
that it would be really, really surprising to me
if he goes in that range.
Now, a lot of buzz on him in the 20s.
So I think that at plus money,
that might be a better way to play it
than just straight up the over under,
like a juice 12 and a half,
which is what you're seeing right now,
or a 15 and a half at some other shops.
Are you guys more into that Nunez and Dago?
I know they shut me down pretty quick earlier,
but is that something you guys
might be interested at this point?
It wasn't that I didn't like the line and part of it was
the juice on the picket thing and part of it is the the nature of quarterbacks and having so like
little confidence in where they go and if there's any interest in teams moving up to grab them so
like you're talking about 14 which we kind of feels the floor for jordan davis like we just
talked about the texans moving back up could the te Texans move up from 13 to six with interest is still getting picket plus that's kind of a, something we've
heard Jeremiah talk about a lot is picket plus they can get picket still, but then also add some,
some stuff on, you know, day two, or maybe even something else for next year, they may be
interested in it. So I just having exposure to this volatility of the quarterback position is
just something I'm trying to limit myself to other than I took Malik Willis plus three 50 to go to
the Steelers. That's the only quarterback action I currently have on my card. Pick it. Even
disgusting. It was also just so annoying because anytime you put them to a team, it's not like
they actually want to take them. It's just like, Oh, well this is the 18th player on our board
and everyone else went. So I guess we'll take take picket like you can't fit him anywhere no matter what you think of him as a
player so that's why it's just so hard i mocked him to the titans because i felt like he had to
be in the first round not because i necessarily think that the titans are the right spot for him
now i get the tandem angle you can get out of him next year save a crap ton of money he didn't play
great all of those things but like yeah i don't know that any team is excited as a fan base when you
come home with kenny pickett on friday morning so it'll be interesting to see what happens there
uh condition anything that you got down on today or anything that's out there that's still live for
the folks that are hanging out with us uh you know it was kind of some stuff we already, I was adding more to the cross under seven and a half position.
As Silva mentioned it, but some Jermaine Johnson, it seemed kind of like 10 being the floor for him.
So for him to go on the top 10, laid some of that.
There wasn't a lot, like I said, there is some exactives that, you know,, some top three exactives just to go,
top five exactives, sprinkle some money on to see it kind of going crazy.
But the first to-go markets I thought are relatively efficient.
A little, again, I think cross is kind of a value play,
but again, one that probably loses to, you know,
Equano or Neal at the three or four spot.
But we'll have to see, you you know in the next couple of days if we we can get some uh you know some steam on uh maybe you know where to play the quarterback i know titans was one
steelers for uh another for bumbley can pick it but um it was mostly just kind of adding to
a couple positions that i already had some early money on.
What do you guys think about Trey McBride plus 475 to go in the first round?
He was in the –
Every mock draft, he doesn't appear in the first round every –
but he's also considered like the clear-cut number one tight end in the draft.
And, I mean, I agree with that.
So why,
why isn't he getting more like very late first round buzz?
Oh,
you're muted noon.
But it wasn't in a Peter King's mock draft today or what?
He was,
he was mocked as number 32 to the lions.
I think it was to Peter King in the first round.
I was saying Cincinnati,
right.
Cincinnati moved on.
Maybe it was 31.
Yeah.
Where he was mocked,
but either way,
he was four 75.
Yeah.
I mean,
that's,
that's pretty good eyes right there.
I mean,
I mean,
if I,
if I were a betting man,
I would probably place him somewhere in the fifties,
but I,
you know,
he's considered so much better than all the rest of the tight ends and again i
agree with that like why is he not getting at least a little bit of late round buzz
jelani woods there was a 25 to 1 out there jelani i don't think he'll again same thing as cook i
don't think he can go above trey mcbride but he had like legitimately, he's like the most athletic tight end in the
history since they started doing, you know, combine data.
And without a guy, again, McBride for sure, number one, but not a guy that's going to
go, you know, in the top half of the first round type of thing.
I think I like Woods to be, if you can find a, you know, a second tight end
better than a first tight end. But I think the Canby had a couple of those that I played Jelani
Woods, some small plays on first and second tight end. I think he's being priced more like the
fourth or fifth guy when he's a guy that just, if you want to take a shot in the second round,
an athletic freak. He also had to add some decent production at Virginia.
So he's a guy I liked if you can get a higher price on first.
Second tight end there, plus 900.
It's come down a bit.
I think I saw some 15 when it first got there.
But second tight end, 900, I'd still play a bit.
I mean, there's the guy who does the RAS scores,
who had him like a perfect 10 for the tight end position.
So again, when you're talking about second round,
you know, opportunity player,
he's one of the ones that I wouldn't mind to sprinkle on
for first and second TE.
Yeah.
Bengals fans, again, for the sake of discussion,
we have to try to find a home for them in the first round,
theoretically.
You know, team logo guy, undefeated still to find a home for them in the first round, theoretically.
Team logo guy, undefeated still.
Matt, thanks for hanging out with us.
We're not saying they are.
We're just trying to find a home that would make sense.
They need to take about six offensive linemen in this draft before they get Joe Burrow's career ended.
Nice little offseason.
Take a few more.
The guy's not going to last until 25
if you keep letting him get killed every snap. because, I mean, the guy's not going to last until 25 if you keep letting him fucking get killed every snap.
Yeah, I get it.
I talked about him a little bit earlier,
but I took Jahan Dotson today under 30 and a half,
which was plus money on points bets.
There were some 31 and a halves out there.
31 feels like a dead number.
I don't think that the Bengals are taking a receiver,
so I like getting the plus number on Dotson again.
I was bullish on as a first-round pick to begin with,
and then obviously having the Daniel Jeremiah stuff today,
feel pretty good about that, especially at plus 100.
So that was on points about a couple hours ago.
I also know our friend of the show, Vegas Refund,
took an under on McBride at 63.5.
When he did that, it moved instantly to like 59 and a half,
but I think that's still out there in like the high to mid fifties on
McBride's over under.
And I'm not quite sure.
I think that was on 50,
50 right now.
It's like,
I'm all the way down to.
Okay.
Well,
thanks VR.
Yeah,
that was on DraftKings.
So that's probably still good stuff from him.
Dagle,
anything that you had today or anything that you've been eyeing at all the folks that are hanging out with us and then we can get to some of the questions that
are uh in the chat uh i just hit the trifecta and exacta today i just had trevon walker aiden
hudgenson derrick stingley and aquanu and then switched it with gardner instead of stingley at
three um and then also added the trifecta, which I'm much more confident in,
even though Kanisha's sources scare me,
and Walker and then Hutchinson and then Stingley.
And that's the one, two, three punch I'm going with.
Okay. I like it.
I believe it.
Could you see a scenario where Hutchinson falls to five
or possibly outside five?
I cannot personally,
but I know some people are betting Hutchinson at three and four,
but I can't.
I also wonder if that syndicate took Thibodeau at two,
thinking, Kanish, Hutchinson went at one.
Did they do that or did did they, did they assume,
or does it not matter?
Cause they were just betting the number,
but there is no steam on,
on one.
And I think like,
you know,
you get,
you get limited,
right?
Like,
so like if you get limited to a certain number in this,
like,
unless they just keep feeding the money until I guess the odds inevitably get
even to the same price as,
as Hutch.
But I mean,
they weren't,
they weren't betting number one,
like number one didn't move at all.
So you would think that there would be like at least some movement on number one
uh because they'd get maxed out at a certain spot and then like have to move somewhere else but
I don't know maybe not yeah no it was it was solely uh uh number two to the Lions um which
again the the pre-draft info depending on where it's coming from, has been wrong plenty of times.
But it was definitely real money betting that Thibodeau too,
which I don't know.
I got to believe it to see it.
Dan Campbell passing up a guy that wears war paint
and is a mile away.
I'd have to see it for a guy who loves Bitcoin
and took a bunch of 100 plays off for Oregon.
So I don't know.
Someone said there was a story like Thibodeau seems like a Campbell guy.
He's nothing like a Campbell guy.
His own coaching staff said he, like, didn't try for half of last season.
So I see the ceiling.
I see the higher ceiling than Hutch.
I would still have to believe it to see it that they're going to take him at two.
Well, either way, the bets are already made and we're sticking with it.
So that's the trifecta I bet today.
Yeah, I can't get there either.
I can't get myself to Tibbs at two.
I cannot see them passing on Hutchinson at two.
And I get we have sharp friends that are taking different
positions to do so and I understand covering your bases and not wanting to take a bloodbath
but I just I can't I cannot see we get to a spot where that they pass on him I mean it fits a need
it is such a win and again like you know we've talked about this Will Brinson in the chat like
Will and I have talked about this like teams that doesn't matter at times they do want to win friday morning they want to win that a little bit so like when
you can take the same position that kind of fits your highest need and you can kind of win the
press conferences on friday and the weekend you're going to win all the mock draft grades no one
really believes in walker and you got the guy that you wanted at one you didn't have to take him you
got him at two like i think some of that stuff matters there is a lot more questions to be
answered in the media we're taking thibodeau at two and passing on hutchinson than there are just
pressing the button on hutch and then moving forward so it kind of feels like a no no brainer
to me that's fair so this is actually something that i've been noticing today too this is pretty
wild so fibs under despite all the negative news on him has been just getting massively steamed,
like minus two 80,
despite like all the reports,
like at the second half of today being like,
Oh,
Thib's is not going for it.
Thib's is not going five,
you know,
like yet his under is just getting destroyed right now.
Um,
so I don't know if it's,
that's your same buddies over there,
Kanish,
or if it's just some,
you know,
a lot of bozos with a lot of money,
but I,
I,
it's something that I don't think should be completely ignored because you're going to get a great, great like price on getting
the over there. If you're in the same belief as I think we are right now, which is that dibs is
probably not going to, if he doesn't go to then, I mean, I think that he's, he's well over four
and a half. So I, I, I also wonder Connor, something I've been thinking about is since Evan Neal went the other
way, Evan Neal is now what, like minus over like minus two 50 to be over five and a half.
I wonder if people will just swap their positions. Uh, even though I didn't have Neal or Tibbs in the
first four picks anyways. Yeah, no, I mean, it's very, it's very possible. I just, it's pretty
rare to see something move from, I mean, he was getting a little bit of juice there on the initial news
that he was in play for the jets and that the lions were there. Uh, but now, I mean, it's just
getting massively hit. So, uh, I think some of the, some of these exact as though are great.
I mean, Dagle, you've played some, I've played, played a bunch. Um, I know drafting has pulled
them down, but some other sites will have them. I think that like some longer shot ones here that i like would be like a walker hutch stingley exacta is pretty interesting
um or like a walker hutch um you know sauce one is kind of normal but i think kind of playing the
walker hutch and then you know some kind of variation of three and then maybe four if you
want to get it even a little bit longer shot because you can kind of play out the you know
if then scenario of like if they take sting, then does four take sauce or does four take, you know, did the jets take a icky, you
know what I mean? Like those kinds of scenarios right now at points, but in other shops are like
40 to one, 50 to one, if you feel really strongly either way, I mean like a sprinkle on that can,
you know, make up for a couple of bad ones. Yeah. I have Walker Hutch Stingley at 40. Same. And then I have a bunch of first four that are Walker Hutch Garner
with variations at four.
So kind of hoping that we get a Walker Hutch Garner situation
and then we can land Jammo or London or Icky there.
That would make for another one.
Another one that I think is a little bit spicy.
I don't know that anyone's tailed it.
We had some talk in our Discord around this.
The Rams are another team that approached the draft very differently.
They also don't have a pick until the third round.
They also have a pretty deep roster, and they don't have a ton of needs per se.
They did let Johnny Heckard walk, though.
And we do have the punt God in this draft. Um, and you can get
the Rams to take their first pick as a punter or special teamer or a place kicker, but basically
it's the punter. Um, I believe it's still 60 on FanDuel. Uh, it was 50 on DraftKings again,
a little sprinkle, you know, a little pizza money, uh, for, you know, for 50 to one on the Rams to do something that the Rams also don't mind doing. They, they approached the draft a little sprinkle you know a little pizza money uh for you know for 50 to 1 on the rams to
do something that the rams also don't mind doing they approach the draft a little bit different
than other teams so uh they have a hole there and you can very easily see them doing that and i'm
willing to pay uh 25 bucks to see if they make that happen so it's an interesting one uh to me
uh we also had some news on i think dagle touched on this a little bit um but raymond the uh
offensive lineman has been falling a little bit, but Raymond, the offensive lineman,
has been falling a little bit too. He was also included in that unsourced Walter football report
around his physical, that his medicals are kind of popping on a few teams' draft boards. He's been
pulled. I took it over on him today at 37 and a half. That's still readily available out there.
If he has any questions questions there's a number of
offensive linemen they're going to be in that range that could go ahead of him anyway and if
there's any medical concerns i think that that's probably a decent look that's still out there and
that's i don't like to sauce up uh walter football uh because of some of the other content they put
out but to get to highlight why the medicals don't get is because basically all the other info guys get their stuff
from agents they don't want to put out the medical stuff before the draft to affect their clients
draft positions so that's why you never see the medical stuff come from a rap sheet or a chef
until post draft then you'll see some follow-up but you have a site like walter football that
doesn't care about any of those credentials that still sometimes get some of that info that doesn't mind posting it for the clicks
you know because that uh even though you might get you know covid from logging onto their site
from all the ad clicks so that but that some of that stuff in years past as daigle has mentioned
that shows up there is legitimate like it's he's had some good info on medical stuff for
that doesn't come out elsewhere for more credible sources until post draft and it's because the info
guys don't want to post it to ruin the relationship with the agents yeah we'll hear in drafts right
like oh he's still on the board because of this has happened and we didn't hear about it until
yes sorry like the ev Evan Neal going over,
it came after the red flag showed up on Walter Football's site.
And again, no one has confirmed this just yet.
I haven't heard any other reporter talk about it, oddly enough.
But apparently Evan Neal is the concerning one with red flags for his knees.
Josh Norris hanging out with us.
Mock draft.
I don't know if you guys heard,
but Josh had a good mock draft last year.
Underreported similar to medicals.
So I wasn't that far behind and I know Silva wasn't either,
but again,
congratulations to Josh.
I believe 16 out of 32 last year.
Very impressive draft.
We'll see how one hit wonder Norris.
Fade him this year.
I want to hear it.
Some guy like Joe, forget his name,
I think he works for like the Draft Network now,
had like the great, great mock draft a few years ago.
Guy hasn't hit like four picks in the last three years.
Who knows?
I don't even know.
If you dial up WalterFootball.com, but you have a mask on,
will you not get COVID?
Oh, man.
Dr. Kinniss says you want to be
careful about logging on to Walter.
Don't click any of the links
unless you want to be paying for
two Asian girls
having fun with each other.
Great way to kill
grandma and grandpa.
Yeah, so be careful
if you're logging on.
Take your laptop outside.
The injured medical stuff, I can't lie about it. Yeah, so be careful if you're logging on. Dude, take your laptop outside. It's harder to catch.
But the injured medical stuff, I can't lie about it.
It's worth looking at.
I was going to say quickly on the Rams punter you mentioned as well.
Never forget the Rams took 109-pound 2-2 Atwell
just last year in the second round.
They legitimately do not care about the draft.
They think differently than us.
Have we seen teams, or if they're going to use a reason as like their kicker and punt because usually your
your punter your strict punter values we even though he's phenomenal i know he's got you know
the greatest net punting stats in the history college football like you wouldn't see them
until the fifth sixth or seventh right like you would see the great place kickers go early, but I can't imagine a team is actually going to put the onus
of kicking and punting on their same play.
And he had some shaky actual kicking moments last year too.
I guess I haven't gotten the,
in terms of kind of determining where he lands and his value,
if they're using him strictly as a punter,
it would be hard for me to see him
going and you know the first three rounds even evan mcpherson who was like the number one prospect
kicking in his class it took until the fifth round and uh you saw how great he was so that is a that
is a good point but also like if you're betting that condition they're probably just going to
cap you at 20 bucks anyway so screw it yeah that's all it is yeah i mean kade york is another great
place kicker in this draft but again it's a 60 to 150 to one sprinkle at this point like again
it's a if it was a more traditional team that valued the draft in a different way i probably
wouldn't do it but it made sense to me also because it was the rams uh because of just their
kind of approach and especially at the top of the draft, they seem to not really abide by a lot of the rules.
So we'll get to some of the questions here.
Hayden Winks, Hayden hanging out with us.
Zion Johnson under 24 and a half.
More interesting with Kenyon Green's medicals mentioned by Jeremiah.
Yeah, we've had some internal discussions around teams,
thoughts around Green or Zion Johnson.
Those things are kind of interesting there.
Evan, any leans on those things are kind of interesting there.
Evan, any leans on those guys?
They're kind of both going in the early 20s in most locks currently.
I always thought that Zion Johnson, his floor is 24 to the Cowboys. I mean, Brian brought us who's probably the most plugged-in member of the media
when it comes to Cowboys stuff.
He's like the Cowboys love him.
He's a great blocker etc kenyan green can also get people blocked but you know he might be the best pure
guard prospect in the draft but he's uh you know he's got this issue with the medicals he's a very
tough guy to predict kenyan green um zion also super interesting because he fits the
packers athletic threshold at 22 for a position we know they're interested in and i could see
him being drafted the patriots at 21 if it comes to that as well uh although we expect the patriots
to draft someone from austria or switzerland or something uh does they won't even make the pick
does kyle duggar or rutgers yeah kyle duggar have a twin? Or Rutgers.
Kyle Duggar's twin who plays for Rutgers.
That's who they're going to draft.
Right now, Zion's over-under is 24.5.
If you think that his floor is 24,
I think 22 and 24 are both
very much in play there. I think that could be
a good look as well.
Pats won't even make the pick.
They typically love
to trade out of that.
Young and Fearless, 22, great name.
Sprinkling on this Rams action with me here.
11 and a quarter.
Good for you, buddy.
Good for you.
Good day to get rich, son.
Yep.
Hit those DMs on Saturday morning when that comes through for us.
What else have we got in here?
Hutch.
Hutch at 101 to go 5. 40 to one to go four like i get it i get why that's so appealing but again i can't like it just i think you have to
those prices just based on the the market where i get again i'm not saying you need a better uh
you know your your retirement fund on it but i think you have to play those prices based off of what we've
seen with some of the... If you hit one of
those boys, it's going to make your entire
draft.
It seems you can pay for
a half season of ETR.
This is where I got
with the Jermaine Johns, or
more with the Aquanu and Neal at number four as well.
Even though I am confident still in Aquanu at number four,
I just started betting Neal at number four, the exact pick,
because this draft is basically cover your ass season.
It's like, don't go broke with this draft,
since we literally can't figure it out.
I would just make sure all your bases are covered here.
Patrick, you're damn right.
Williams can go wide receiver one.
He better.
You know, we have some, some looks there at nine at seven.
I think it's down to what?
Plus one 50, even at this point, Connor,
we need lots of Williams top five, top 10,
top seven to, to make for a really nice Thursday evening.
I think there's actually a good talking point there.
I think taking him like exact pick at six and seven at like 50 to one is very much in
play because six is like a big trade out spot.
Seven.
I mean, I think the Giants could go wide receiver or potentially trade out as well.
I mean, again, 50 to one, we expect him to go or we think that he's very viable top 10.
He's gotten like nonstop buzz the entire off like entire draft season about being like multiple teams wide receiver one as well as
being like way ahead of recovery we saw the you know video yesterday seemed to be way ahead of
recovery given he was only 15 weeks out from acl surgery so i think that's like viable as a long
shot as well yeah steven saying if you don't think that the lions take hutch you think they're going
to trade out i don't know i don't know no one you the i'm sure they would love to but who's who i who's going to want to go up to pick
for number two no correct no one's going to get to six for cheaper yeah if you had a need you can
still get the ends i mean bulky came out and said like this is no no team ever with the number one
pick even if they know who they're going to take does this and he basically came out and said
nobody's calling us.
I mean, half of it's because he's an idiot.
But the other half is like, we haven't gotten any calls on number one.
It's not going to be traded.
Jeremiah hinted at Stingley being a possibility at number two.
But I also think we're at the point where Jeremiah says every situation.
Like, literally, he just shows up to a show and, yeah, this is going to happen.
Like, this has a chance to happen because everything has a chance to happen it's hard and again you
can't should you be drafting on need and necessarily too but the lions have drafted okuda
they've drafted uh another young corner last year they're like they've they've drafted corner in a
number of spots and so and to take a guy with some of the red flags at two, it's, I just can't see.
It's got to be Hutch or Thibodeau.
Could Burks fall out of round one?
I don't think so.
But again, like to Tegel's point, this is a very wide range of outcome draft.
I think that I have a hard time seeing him make it past Dallas.
And then we have so many, this is part of why we liked over five and a half receivers
back in like late February, because there were so many like receiving needy teams, Connor,
at the end of the draft, you know, we have two picks for the Packers. We have a chief team that
now has a need that they didn't even at that point, like there are so many, I guess, like
falling sports spots where Berks would be caught. i mean even like the the cardinals i think
the titans like you know again you said the chiefs twice like all those teams need wide receivers
so i think burks can get caught like pretty much any of those points and then i think a guy like
dotson gets in there i just don't see that whole range like all those like there's like
eight to ten picks where all those teams that need wide receivers really bad like not at least
one gun like i think that if burks doesn't go in the top 20, I think Berks and Dotson both go in that range.
Yeah.
Doesn't been read or a lock for round one.
Absolutely.
This is the most confounding.
I can't,
I,
we always say,
take your personal opinion out of like draft.
I cannot fathom.
I know he crushed the pre-draft process and teams like that.
He knows how to work a whiteboard and is coming in and is a leader and all
that. I get it.
I watched Desmond Ritter play at least a dozen college games and I could not
fathom that someone is going to spend a first round pick on him.
He was horrific in some of the games that they've played against better
opponents.
Alabama game was not pretty.
No, no. He won was not pretty. No.
He won 44 games as a starter.
Against East Carolina that they won like 17-3.
No, they beat Notre Dame this past year.
I know they beat Notre Dame.
Listen, I know you guys.
Let's go watch some basketball, boys.
Seriously.
I mean, there's a good half of basketball left.
I can't get behind anything pro-Ritter.
No, I think with situations like that,
you just have to sort of embrace the variance.
Don't pretend that you know how this is going to go.
Embrace the variance.
Try to find long shots where you can capitalize on situations like that.
I mean, we took Desmond Ritter like 40-1 to be the first quarterback draft.
We don't know what's going to happen.
So I think it's embrace the variance situation.
Question was around one block, though,
and I think we're all pretty comfortable saying that that's not the case
for Desmond Ritter.
A team might like him.
A team might value that fifth year, trade back up into the end of the first,
solidify that, and then have them in their whiteboard,
drawing up plays and leading men, Kanish.
I think he was so good at the pre-draft process stuff
that his stock became like in terms of –
And I agree with you.
I don't think he's going to be a starter in the NFL,
but I think an NFL team could fall for that.
You know what I mean?
We're trying to predict the draft here.
We're not trying to be NFL scouts, Kanish.
Well, I'm saying in terms of where his over-under is now,
just so much of the premium on like the –
No, I'm not betting Ritter anymore.
Yeah.
I would be more
inclined to take overs on ritter right now um and think that someone could you know potentially
scoop him as more of a second round player than than wanting him as a first rounder i'll leave
us with this dalton gets it mcveigh loves punting so i think if you haven't already got down uh it
is done so again you got a little bit of time left four four four
dot com slash plans promo code mtl 22 gets you 25 off of our betting sub uh everything you could
possibly want at four for four um definitely want to check that out we appreciate you hanging out
with us uh don't forget to check out establish the run.com on the internet uh also wherever you
listen to audio podcasts i believe they do videos on the youtube.com
uh backslash page as well i'm sure that they have some great mock uh and and draft content there
our friend here evan silva does a fantastic job over there i had to establish a run on the newly
owned elon musk run uh twitter yeah yeah he does a great job We're all fans of his work
So we will be back
Soon, Connor and Dagle and I
Will be back with some Moodle lines
Next week, probably have a little draft recap
Talk about some wins and losses
And we'll start to get into the future market
As emerges post-draft
So, for Connor, for John, for Joe and Evan,
I'm Ryan. We'll see you all soon.