Move The Line - NFL Free Agency Madness & More NFL Draft News!

Episode Date: March 14, 2024

The trio breaks down everything that happened during the first couple of days of NFL Free Agency, including all the running backs that changed teams and a couple of wild trades! How did all of these changes affect the NFL landscape? How does that affect how we are betting on the NFL Draft? Find out here!Today's show is sponsored by DK Pick 6, play $5 to get $50 in bonus credits on DraftKings' newest peer-to-peer pick'em Platform. Find out more here. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Scott on Twitter 👉🏼  / scottsmithff  Follow Vegas on Twitter 👉🏼  / vegasrefund  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

free agency is humming and nfl draft markets are moving rapidly as teams sign and release different players today we'll break down the impact of free agency on NFL draft markets and go through the top 10 picks, the latest news, and so much more. Welcome to Move the Line NFL Draft Season Edition. I'm Connor Allen, taking over the hosting reins from Ryan Noonan, who is off on his annual golf trip, hopefully shooting a little bit better than last year. Last year, I think he lost narrowly as he did not let us forget multiple times. So hopefully he's doing a little bit better there. Joining me, as always, Scott Smith, one of the most accurate mock drafters over the past decade.

Scott, how did the legal tampering period treat you? I mean, is it as glorious as always? As a Washington fan and dealing with Dan Snyder for the last 20 plus years, it's been phenomenal for me actually seeing them put together a decent roster. It's always telling whenever you have a team that goes ahead and doesn't sign any of their free agents, but then nobody else does either. Yeah, we'll talk about it more.

It's like them and the Titans have just been like, I don't know who they think they are. They're just signing guys who are tons of guys. They're in like a win now mode, but I don't think that they're really there so we'll see but joining us today is our friend one of the twitter gambling godfathers vegas refund vegas refund how have you been my man we're good we're good we're going uh this is the first draft season i'll be going through with the newborn so it's a little bit different, but it's going. Congrats on that. That's a massive news.

Baby VR, baby refund. Fun, Junior. Yeah, no, well, that's awesome. So I'm thinking today we'll probably go through just the top picks and then some of the latest news and how those impact the top picks. There's obviously some other free agency news that might impact some of the later picks

in the first round as well that we can probably touch on. But I think off the top here, we got to get your opinion on the whole Bears, Justin Fields, like just to kick it off. Are the Bears locked in on Caleb Williams, Luke? Or, you know, where does and if so, like where does Justin Fields go? When does he get traded? Yeah, I mean, Caleb's going one. I don't even think it's worth talking about anymore. Kind of agree. Any show that's even talking about Caleb going one i don't even think it's worth talking about anymore um

kind of agree any show that's even talking about going one he's just wasting their time but yeah justin fields is no one really knows everyone i think his market in terms of the media it was a lot higher in like january everyone expecting him to get traded and now everything you're hearing is there's just no market whatsoever. And at this point, really not even – I mean, Caleb's going one either way, so it doesn't really matter in terms of the draft on what's happening with Justin Fields. But two and three, I mean, I think Jaden and Drake are just flip-flopping, it seems like, on a week-to-week basis. With Drake being the consensus number two pick for probably a year now and now

it's starting to get to jayden which i think i saw the odds on jayden became the favorite number two yesterday and i know scott's working hard trying to figure out either or and i think scott still feels like drake's number two which honestly i'm 50 50-50. And at the same time, like I don't really care that much. What I care about is if it is Jaden at two, like you do hear that Drake could fall further than we expect. Like that's really all I'm looking for. Because if it's Caleb, Jaden, Drake, Caleb, Drake, Jaden, unless, I mean, the odds aren't even that enticing at this point for either or

those three go first three figuring out what happens after marvin or number four what happens at number four okay yeah that makes sense scott i think this is where we disagree a little bit so we're looking at the commanders here at number two recently signed marcus mariota some are pointing to that as a sign that they're going to draft jayden daniels definitely some more comparisons there and i think you have a good rebuttal to that though and i think you're still in the drake may side here but it's obviously far from decided i'd love to hear kind of your thoughts on why you're still in on drake may over jayden daniels here daniels now we're looking at like minus 150 i believe to be the number two

overall pick so i i will admit there you where there's smoke, there usually is some fire. And a lot of people are kind of like jumping the bandwagon to be on the Jaden Daniels side. There is some valid reasoning for that. There's been some rumors out there, whether true or not, that Adam Peters may not even like Jaden Daniels. So there's a lot of things on both sides of the fence. For me, I think the signing of Mariota isn't as much of an indictment against May

as what a lot of people are saying because they were also in on a few other backup quarterbacks that aren't in the same mold of what Jaden Daniels is. Everything they've done from a free agency signing is consistent and par for the course with what they're looking to do. If you start to look at it, Brian Johnson, who was with the Eagles, coached Mariota last year, is familiar with him as far as the system. He's a good guy to have in the room. If they are going to go ahead and move Sam Howell,

he would kind of be the primary backup. You would want somebody that's familiar with the system. You start looking at the other guys. You had a few guys that came over from the Dallas, you know, from Cowboys to Washington that are familiar with the system. Eckler is familiar with Anthony Lynn, who was his head coach there when he was with the Chargers. So the Mariota signing, just because you're trying to, you know,

fit apples to apples and say that he's a similar quarterback to what Jaden Daniels' skill set, I don't necessarily buy that because, you know, they were in on Sam Darnold as well, who Adam Peters is familiar with from from San Francisco, and he's not anywhere close to being in the mold of what Jaden Daniels is. So that isn't necessarily the direction that I think that that signing points them into. Now, what I would be a little bit more concerned about is that you do have some insiders. Tony Pauline's a guy that I listen to a little bit more concerned about is that you do have some insiders. Tony Pauline's a guy that I listen to a lot. He seems to think that it's Jaden Daniels. And a number of other people have said that the arguments and discussions around the league

isn't whether or not it's going to be Daniels or Drake May. It's that Jaden Daniels is up there competing with Caleb Williams. Not that Caleb Williams isn't going to be the first pick, but that some people think he's as much of a threat defensively and respect him as far as having to game plan against what he brings to the NFL. So those are the things that would start to kind of like bring me down and really like go through this. But there's still a lot of connections for Drake May there to Washington. You still have guys like Matt Hasselbeck that he thinks Drake May is the best quarterback, even above Caleb Williams. And then you really have to start to wonder, everybody talks about, well, Drake May kind of took a step back. Well, he did change offenses. He did lose

some of the weapons that he had the year before but is drake mays 2023 film worse than jayden daniels 2022 film you know jayden daniels took a step up he had a great year he's you know surrounded by weapons did play in sec so it's good to see him do it against that caliber but ultimately i think what you really have to look forward to, and that's where I'm trying to run down some of this stuff, is there's been multiple reports and whispers and rumors out there that Adam Peters prefers Drake May, and that's what it's going to come down to. So it's really trying to chase down some of those, and I still think that the tipping point for who this pick is going to come down to

is going to come from Peter Schrager, because he was well-connected with Cliff Kingsbury whenever he was there in Arizona. I think every year that Kingsbury was a coach down there, Schrager nailed the Arizona pick. And that's, that's who I think is going to be the person that kind of tips who this pick is going to be for Washington. Yeah. I think that when Schrager's first mock comes out, we're going to see the odds of whoever he puts there go to like, you know, minus 180 or something like that, whether that's Daniels, whether that's Drake May. And you referenced some people discussing that the commanders prefer Peters. I think that it's notable that in an athletic column that where they like pull GMs and executives, it was they pulled six of them for the

number two overall pick. Five of them would have picked Jaden Daniels. One of them picked Drake May. But they did say in there, like, we've heard that Adam Peters prefers Drake May. Again, the only pick that matters is the Washington commander. So I think that's still kind of a TBD scenario with Washington there. And I think it rolls into number three, though, VR. Like, do you think that the Pats are willing to just stand pat and take almost like sloppy thirds? Like, do they think that they're fine with any of those three quarterbacks? Or do they have, like, a clear preference? And if they don't get their guy, they're going to trade down. I mean, what are your thoughts on number three right now?

I mean, God, I hope so. You're a Pats guy, aren't you? Yeah, like, the Brissette thing was very interesting. Whether they're looking at him as to be the starter next year or a starter as a bridge, you feel like they like jayden a lot more for me like i'm defaulting to the past taking a quarterback and we don't have belichick there so it's not like you have no idea what they're doing you expect them to trade there are definitely some trade partners and i hate talking trades i say it every single year but like right now i'm just

assuming that's drake mary or jayden like yeah sloppy seconds of'm just assuming that's Drake May or Jane again sloppy seconds of the two like and that's what they should do um and I mean I love the preset Simon but right now there really aren't any tea leaves out there to kind of read in terms of what they're doing on three you kind of just gotta assume is a quarterback i do not think it's jj mccarthy yeah i think that i'm kind of glad that we're putting that to bed or like early-ish like the whole jj at two or three because there was like i don't know maybe some rumblings like two weeks ago about oh maybe jj could be ahead of may or ahead of this and now i think that's kind of calmed down and i think that's right you know i don't i mean we saw the whole like Drake May if he's not going to maybe JJ McCarthy goes three like it's almost feels like

what we saw with CJ Stroud last year of like the talk of oh he's falling no one likes him but then he ends up going number two anyway so I think that that we're more in that stratosphere than like you know Will Levis where everyone thought he was top five for sure and then he goes to the second round just because which is crazy to think about. I mean, I mean, imagine at this point, like,

you know, a week after the draft, we look back and we see that either one of Drake, Mayor Jaden Daniels goes in the second round. That's almost the equivalent. And that would be just shocking because there's so much better prospects than Levis was. So,

yeah, I mean, it's crazy. Sorry, go for it. You have any extra thoughts? No, I'm good. Will Levis is forever deleted from my memory and can just draft as far as I'm concerned.

Yeah, we're getting clowned in the chat here from Joe Curley, Will Levis number two. Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to lie. I played a little bit of Will Levis number two. I thought that the logic made sense if they really didn't like C.J. Stroud. And obviously that turned out completely wrong. But if we move to the fourth pick here, this is pretty interesting because I think that this is the fourth pick is picking up a little bit of steam here of the Cardinals potentially trading down with someone trading up for JJ McCarthy. We have the team like the Vikings and the Giants, both that I think are

incredibly well positioned to take a guy like JJ McCarthy going forward specifically and potentially trading up into that spot. Now, the question is, are the Cardinals comfortable with trying to pull the same stunt that they did last year with Houston and where they traded down and then traded back up to get Paris Johnson, a guy that we knew that they wanted? And now we assume that they want a guy like Marvin Harrison Jr., who we've heard nothing but good things about that. I mean, Scott, where are you at with this? Because I feel like I've been pretty locked into Marvin Harrison Jr., but the more that we go through the process, it sounds crazy, but Arizona already did it last year. If they can sign a deal with, if they can get a handshake deal with the Chargers at five, who says that they can't go back to 12

and then back up to five? Yeah. In my first mock draft we talked about, I had Arizona trading with New York for New York to move up to get a quarterback. I think that's the only situation that would make sense. I think somebody is going to have to come in and overpay for that spot to go ahead and get there. 90% of mock drafts right now have Morgan Harrison Jr. as the pick there. I tend to agree with that. I'm of the opinion right now that the first four are locked in. I think that Arizona is going to sit there and force New England in a way to either take the quarterback and let Harrison drop, or if they let the quarterback drop, then they would go ahead and start to consider a move back. But I actually think that the Chargers are in more of

a position to go ahead and move back right now. And I think some other teams may actually look at that as well. I just tend to think that Harrison's too clean of a prospect from what scouts and other people around the NFL are saying. You look at the need, it fits a need. So when you have both of those things lining up, I think Harrison's going to be the pick there at four unless a quarterback drops. Yeah, are you in the same boat, VR? Yeah, I mean, it's pretty well documented how much the Cardinals love Harrison. I mean, J.J. McCarthy right now is just the flavor of the week or the past couple weeks, and he's a quarterback,

so you kind of have to buy it, and the quarterbacks always get drafted higher than they should, especially in a year like this where like the only scenario honestly i see it not being marvin harrison is the cardinal trading out with like the vikings for jd mccarthy which we did see jj mccarthy's odds tumble i think this morning on the number four pick it was like 10 to 1 on fandle and now it's i think it's 5 to 1 or 6 to 1 which i mean that could be just a couple people betting that would probably know and now it's I think it's 5-1 or 6-1 which I mean that could be just a couple people betting that we probably know so it it's Marvin Harrison or it's great I don't think it's anyone else yeah I think I know uh the people betting it so yeah we're looking at it was 15-1 this

morning I may or may not have put a little you know little sprinkle light light misting on uh you know JJ McCarthy at number four I know that's, for those of you who don't know, VR absolutely hates the word, oh, we lost him, hates the word sprinkle. He was so mad that, you know, we lost him through the process there. But yeah, we're looking at J.J. McCarthy's odds, plus 450 at Caesars to go number four overall, which is second behind, let's see if we can rotate everyone here in this box here. Welcome back, VR. Yeah, so J. Jim McCarthy's odds plus 650 at FanDuel was like 15 to one this morning. Still 10 to one at BetMGM. I don't think that's that bad, to be honest, but

I don't know. I guess it just comes down to how likely you think they are to trade the pick, but the number five pick, the Chargers, I think that they almost have to trade the pick but uh the number five pick the chargers i think that they almost have to trade like we just saw field yates put out a mock and mel kuiper put out a mock where they're taking jc latham number five overall because he plays on the on the right side um and would like is a great run blocker he's the best run blocking part i mean taking him at number five with all the people who want to trade up seems pretty outrageous i mean sc, are you kind of in the same boat there? Yeah, I tend to think that especially when you start looking at some of the moves they made here in free agency, that if they stay at five, it's going to be a wide receiver.

It's not going to be a tackle just because we talked about the value of, you know, drafting a right tackle or a tackle that you project to play right tackle. This high just doesn't make sense. So for me, you know, unless it's Malik neighbors, I think a trade-out is going to make the most sense. I think we've talked about some of those teams that are going to be looking to move up for JJ McCarthy. And I think this is going to be the spot where you start to see it.

It just starts to make the most sense, the way the Chargers want to build their team. And then Chargers have a few other spots where they can make some moves. You've seen Khalil Mack restructure. It's rumored that Bosa could be on the move as well. So the Chargers could end up, if Bosa gets moved, you can maybe see them get into the Dallas Turner type of area as well. But as of right now, I think it's wide receiver or trade out. Yeah, well, I mean, they released Mike Williams. So I think that they're cap compliant.

So technically, I don't think they have to do anything with any of the other superstars. So I kind of think that they're just going to stick. VR, any thoughts about what the Chargers do? I almost like, again, i know you hate talking trades and i feel like you just you know rage quit on us when i talked about sprinkling but uh you know like are they gonna trade or what i feel like they almost have to right i think it's right now like especially based off of a free agency where mike williams gone keenan Allen isn't a spring chicken anymore. I know they want to run the ball, and I know the majority of Mocs have them taking a tackle at five.

I see it being neighbors as well. I mean, when Mike Williams went down last year, Keenan Allen was getting 100 targets a game, and they were just crippled, essentially. Neighbors can fix that problem, even though we do know that they want to run the ball first and i mean i guess joel but are you taking joel as a right tackle yeah doesn't he feels pretty strong on the left to me the latham at five was crazy i think that yeah that was kaiper like you said the one guy that it was schrager i want to say like the monday after

the combine schrager was on like good morning the monday after the combine schrader was on like good morning america or whatever the hell like all that show and he was pumping um and this is the season two butcher first and last names but fuaga he was pumping almost as if it was like a consensus number two offensive line and there was like no question about it and i thought that was very interesting and if we're just throwing darts like i took for a number five and it was like 30 or one at the time and it's come down and it means absolutely nothing but to me it does feel like it's a wide receiver at five they trade back it would be a tackle that would make a lot of sense there's a bunch of elite right tackles in that range that would be the perfect spot for the sizzling jj mccarthy right now but

trading i would love to know how often first year head coaches trade um the first round pick i have no idea how to figure that out but yeah or how often harvard trading and first time gm there i mean their new gm is uh you know like uh former ravens person player personnel guy uh joe horitz so like i wonder first year gms i feel like trade a lot more often today's show is sponsored by drafting's newest product pick six it's a pick'em style platform where you choose players that have more or less of a certain statistical category, like passing yards, rushing yards, points, rebounds, assists, you name it. The twist is that DraftKings has made it peer-to-peer. If you're a contrarian, you outsmart your opponents, winnings can be massive.

Even during the Super Bowl, they had a 200x winner for someone who hit six out of six picks. It's available in 21 states, including some that don't even have sports betting. If you play $5, you instantly get bonus credits as well using our code in the show notes. That makes sense. Yeah. So I don't know. I think that I would say they're very likely to trade back, but I think you bring up a good point here. Another market with the Chargers too, that we haven't really talked about. I think they're like plus 250 to draft Blake Corum because obviously the Harbaugh connection, just don't bet that. I mean, like you can feel as confident as you want in the connection. I mean, that's like a second, like third round pick. I don't know. There's just so

much else that can happen. I did take some flyers on like teams that could use running backs like pre-free agency. I thought the Bengals and Giants were fine, but I think the Giants will still probably add someone else. I don't know if they're going to go into the season with just Devin Singletary as their guy. I mean, he's just not all that good. So that would kind of surprise me. But speaking of the Giants here at number six, I think that they're squarely in play for a quarterback. And the more that we hear out of New York is the worst and worst Daniel Jones looks. They're worried about his health. If he gets injured again in 2024, he has like a clause in his contract where he gets paid all the 2025 money as well. I mean,

I think that they kind of found out last year that he's not their guy and they're just trying to move as quickly as possible. They signed Drew Locke to a short-term deal, and then they're in a good position at number six overall. If they wanted to swap with the Cardinals four to six, that could make a lot more sense because the Cardinals are still in a position to get Dunza, neighbors, or even trade up to five again and then get their guy Marvin Harrison. So, VR, any thoughts about the Giants here, about they're going to go quarterback, wide receiver,

or what they're going to do for this year? Yeah, I think you've heard that they're in on J.J. McCarthy, which at this time right now, it doesn't feel like J.J.'s going to fall. It would be risky if they just hoped he fell to six with the Vikings behind them and I guess maybe the Broncos. I think quarterback is totally in play. I think if they get jumps, then it's definitely a wide receiver. Let's say the Vikings or whoever, and it just goes quarterback,

quarterback, quarterback. Wide receiver would be a no-brainer, which getting neighbors or dunes there would be a slam dunk. But I think QB is very alive. I don't think o-line i think that's kind of fading but yeah qb is live at six i don't think they're gonna trade up for him that'd be crazy i don't even know if they have picks but it would be jj mccarthy or neighbors to me yeah scott where are you at with this one so everything i've been tracking down on the giants is that they are absolutely done with daniel jones um that they have severe

buyer's remorse as far as like the contract goes um even digging into daniel jones as far as like how his rehab is progressing right now he's behind where he should be as far as progressing from his rehab is what I've heard. So I think the, the signing of a drew lock is, Hey, if we need somebody to spark the spot, start and get us through a season, I think drew lock is the guy that makes sense for that.

If they can't get a quarterback. I think five with the chargers is definitely going to be the, the trade up spot. I think you look at Denver in particular and the moves that haven't gone on with Denver as far as being able to fill their quarterback vacancy. And I've heard that Sean Payton is desperate for either Drake May or J.J. McCarthy, whichever one he can get in position to trade up to. You've seen absolutely no movement that would symbol anything that looks like a starter there in Denver. So I think Denver

is actually the team that's a little bit more primed to move up at this point, whether it be to that five spot or not, to go ahead and get J.J. McCarthy. And so I think the Giants are going to have to be in a position to go ahead and move up as well. I don't think they can sit there and rely on JJ McCarthy, but at the same time, if, if they do sit there, it's going to be a wide receiver. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. It's Denver. I mean, maybe we'll get to them a little bit later, but they're, they just strike me as a team that could just do some like rogue shit. Like just like go completely off the board trade, like their next two first round picks to get up to like get JJ McCarthy or just something like outrageous. Um, because they don't really have a ton of draft capital or money given what happened with Russell Wilson and they traded away you know obviously a first for

Sean Payton in previous year so like they're just not really in a good spot to make big moves like this but we know that Sean Payton just is someone that makes big moves so it's kind of that battle of what we're going to see. And personally, I don't know. I mean, VR, any thoughts on the Broncos this year? Because we'll just jump to them right now because I'm personally at a loss for what they're going to do if they don't land JJ McCarthy or someone interesting, a quarterback.

Yeah, I mean, I guess maybe Justin Fields. But, yeah, I mean, it's the top. It's the Bears, the Commanders. commanders i was calling the redskins and then you got the vikings and the broncos and let's say the giants are the five teams that are in on a quarterback and there's really four quarterbacks that are probably first round worthy or top 10 worthy so i honestly don't know how the Broncos could do it. They have to just trade like everything, but I mean, they don't have anyone right now.

Like they just need bodies at this point on that quarterback. So they're definitely live. I mean, they were kind of like a month ago, they were, everyone was just slotting JJ McCarthy at 12 or whoever at 12 because they just don't have a quarterback yeah it's done really just either of them but the good thing is like usually trades are going to create chaos and it like creates a ripple effects in terms of like

what we're seeing on the mock drafts like them trading up like everyone is already projecting the same guys going really to top 10 depending on what team it is it's not going to create a ripple effect that i think we've seen in years past really because we really know what teams are going to be trading up at least hopefully yeah i wonder if it would be another i guess like if the giants or another giants the um the broncos or vikings like if the Giants or another Giants, the, um, the, the Broncos or Vikings, like if they were to trade up to four, you know, hypothetically say Carol, uh, Cardinals are selling, would it be a draft day trade? Like, would it just immediately mess up all the mocks? Because I mean, it would probably have to be right. I know one through

three is going to be a quarterback, but at the same time, like, would you be, would you be able to risk like multiple firsts to get up to four if somehow something goes wrong with the quarterback you want not being there? I don't know if they could. So it'd probably be a draft day trade, I think. I don't think we'd see anything super early. So it's a little bit tough, honestly. I think that it's one of those drafts where we kind of expect it, but I think it's better off just like we're gonna be able to attack in the betting markets, but mock drafts are just gonna probably be messed up because teams are gonna trade up to jj mccarthy so yeah i mean normally you hear like teams want to make these trades they're like

big and like the top five as early as possible so they can do their due diligence so they already know but i mean jj mccarthy is just the the flavor of the week the last two weeks and is the team really willing or is the team really that confident that he's going to go in the top five to trade into the top five right now? Or is he somewhat of a gray area where you don't need to trade right now? Maybe you hope he falls to six or seven because that's going to cost a lot less than trading into four. So I don't think he's that bona fide top five guy that you have to trade for now i think you can probably wait yeah that makes sense and then while we're doing uh you know mid-show here we'll skip the titans briefly because we have the falcons making a trade they traded away mid-show desmond

ritter for rondale moore uh to the cardinals so honestly, I think it kind of makes sense for them. I think that they, you know, we're still squarely in play to take a wide out at eight, even with signing Darnell Mooney, because then you're looking at like London, Pitts, Mooney, which is a really good core. But I mean, they've literally, Terry Fonnot came on as GM in 2021 and has taken Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London in three consecutive years. So I mean, maybe just go, you know, quadruple down. But now we're looking at Rondell Moore being, I would say, a reasonable fourth option in that offense.

So I don't really think they're going to go wide out at eight. I mean, Scott, your thoughts about the same there, it looks like? Yeah, you know, we've talked about this in past shows, but I think this is squarely where you're going to see Dallas Turner. I think them solidifying Kirk Cousins at quarterback, having the weapons they do they added mooney in it and now another piece i i think this is where they go defense and try to solidify that side of the ball and get an edge rusher which is something they've struggled with over the past few years just trying to piece in guys you know via free agency that haven't necessarily panned out so i think with

what dallas Dallas Turner did at the combine, his testing, his explosive numbers, I think this is squarely the place where you start to see him. And, you know, I know we're skipping over to Titans, but we even had discussions a little bit with a little bit of edge. Maybe Dallas Turner gets up to Tennessee. You know, they got Ridley. So there's some options here. I think Turner comes into play here at seven and eight. Yeah, for sure. So, yeah, let's go back to the Titans real quick. I bet and released our subscribers Titans to go D liner edge at 11 to one yesterday morning. Got pretty lucky there considering they signed Calvin Ridley for 90 million. Shout out to pretty Ricky, by the way,

is it some random Twitter guy who's been tweeting all this stuff out. He, I think he works with like an agent or something like that. My guess would be one of those people because he's had some scoops now on like what, five or six guys, like way ahead of time. So good follow if you want some stuff there. Who knows how long this run will last. And I hope that he's not just using this goodwill to absolutely destroy us during draft season because I am all aboard the pretty Ricky boat. Like I'm just all in and bet more and more Titans D-line edge as soon as he was reporting that

there was a division rival that was in play for Calvin Ridley. The Titans are really interesting because they have Andre Dillard still under contract, a left tackle. He was absolutely horrible. There's rumors that he's going to get cut and would be a post-June 1 designation, but they haven't marked him as such. And we're still days into free agency. And they could easily just be like, he's a post-June 1 cut and they would save the same cap wise. I think that they're in play still with 50 million in cap room to potentially sign Tyron Smith. I think they're in play to take an offensive lineman like a Joe Alt at seven. But I also think that they could take an edge. We saw Ron Carthon, their GM, has worked in San Francisco in the past, worked in, you know, is the New

Titans GM as of last year. He's drafted three defensive linemen, two offensive linemen, and Trey Lance in his drafts as an executive with either San Francisco or now. Average relative athletic score, which is RAS, was like over nine in both Dallas Turner and Jared Verst, like 9.3. So I think that both those guys fit the mold. Like San Francisco is literally building the whole house out of pass rushers for like the last decade. So would it surprise me to see them who has like aging pass rushers and lost to Nico Autry and free agency to draft a Dallas Turner not at all so I think that is still interesting like plus 300 which is what it's at now but it's tough to

ignore like some free agent moves can happen here I think in the next I don't know day or so with Eric Armstead and maybe even Tyron Smith that could like kind of tip their hand on which way they're going to go in the first round for the titans um vr any any thoughts on the titans here at seven there's a couple of line free agents still out there that can really change things specifically with like the titans or the jets as well whether it's tyron smith or bakhtari or however how you pronounce the last name there's some twists and turns that can be created with what o-line are still out there i think everyone kind of jumped the bandwagon on when the cardinals released whoever they did yesterday and then they came back and signed general williams right after but i i tailed you a little i tailed

you on that titan's pick for not as much as i should have and i went to go replace it when i saw that ridley trade yeah dragon was quote-unquote reviewing my bet and naturally as they were reviewing they decided to uh pull it which is great um but yeah i think you're on point there that was phenomenal i think that's like legitimate CLB too. Like, I don't think that was just people betting. Like that Ridley trade was, I don't want to say it was lucky because it definitely was.

It was perfect timing. Yeah, for sure. But it's, yeah, I wish it had been more. Yeah, no, it's- And that like pushes these wide receivers up too. So let's say JJ goes four or five. All of a sudden, you have neighbors and Adunze at eight, which we're assuming that neither are going to go eight.

And then you have neighbors and Adunze at nine for the Bears. Then you would hope to God that they take one of those two. And Adunze, let's just say keeps falling it's i mean there's a ripple effect that ridley signing for sure oh it's massive i mean it's such a good news for the bears because now they're i mean they're yeah they're literally in perfect position to get a wide receiver without having to trade up i thought they're gonna have to trade up to five i was heard you know i heard before this whole ridley thing that they were a team to watch for it um trading up to five specifically. But yeah,

because Falcons probably not picking a wide out. Titans, I mean, they have DeAndre Hopkins, Shalen Burks, and Calvin Ridley now. They could pick a wide out, but I don't know. It seems like they already got a ton of investment there. I mean, they're looking at already Hopkins and Ridley paying a good chunk of change too. So yeah, I would be kind of surprised if it was a wide receiver at this point. Scott, any thoughts on, you know, seven or eight? I guess we already talked about the Falcons specifically here.

I guess we'll move to the Bears. Like, I think that they're probably a wide receiver trade down team. If for some reason they don't like one of Malik's neighbors or Roma Dunza, Dunza strikes me as like a perfect fit for the Bears given like his character and everything he does a little bit bigger. I don't know. I think it would like a perfect fit for the bears given like his character and everything he does a little bit bigger um i don't know i think it would be a perfect match for them

you know with caleb williams any any bears thoughts about any other position maybe yeah i think chicago is uh i think they're in a good spot in this draft one of the interesting discussions that i heard was that if chicago didn't have the number one pick would they be in the quarterback uh like quarterback discussions right now? And I don't think they would, but I think whenever you have a player like Caleb Williams there at one, you go ahead and do it and reset that, that quarterback salary cap. Um, but yeah, I think in this position right here, I think they're in a, they're in a good position where if they want to trade up, if they're that high on one of the, the, the wide receivers, whether it be a Dunza or Neighbors, I think they're in a spot where they're actively a team that could go ahead and move up to get one of the things you've seen some mock drafts would kind of, you know,

having Chicago as maybe a fallback option for like Brock Bowers, if one of the other, if all three of the wide receivers aren't there. I think that's absolutely out the door, especially with Gerald Everett there signing as the backup tight end. So like Brock Bowers is definitely off the board, but I think they're in a position where they have a lot of options. I think if the board falls away, we're kind of talking about I think a dunce makes a lot of sense there. I don't see them passing up on one of those guys.

And if all the wide receivers off the board, they could they could go ahead and be another team that might be willing to go ahead and trade down and get some more draft capital. Or they could, you know, outside chance to go ahead and address the tackle position, just take the best player available. So Chicago's like, I think things shaping up nicely for, for Chicago and their fans and what they're going to do in this draft right now. If I had to bet, I think it's going to be that they want to end up targeting one of these top three wide receivers and whether that wide receiver falls to them at nine, or if they make a small move up to

get the guy that they want I think that's what's going to end up happening yeah side note I'm going to be betting the Bears to make the playoffs I think I've said it every single episode I'm going to keep saying it until they release the market because I'm pumped Caleb DJ Moore you know good defense last year second half of the year so I'm excited it'll be a tough road to the playoffs with the Lions and division and the Packers seemingly, you know, getting the next Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love. But I think it's certainly viable and I'm excited to see what the odds are at. But I think that was a good segue into the Brock Bowers conversation. Luke, I mean, where are you out of Bowers? Because I'm looking at your sheet, which by the way, for all the listeners, go buy Luke's draft betting

sheet. It has like all the best mocks on their range you know player to team stuff it's truly like one of the best resources if you're like actually serious about betting the nfl draft even if you're not i mean it's cheap enough that one bet will pay off with this so i think it's you know very very valuable but we're looking at brock bauer's range here the the highest people have have him going is five which was a pretty like early popular kind of destination but now it's kind of lost a lot of steam. And I think for good reason, but the high is 21. I mean,

where, where are you on that spectrum? And do you think there's any room to fall even more? I mean, he's kind of been the landmine in terms of depending on where he goes, it's going to really shape up what happens after where five is completely out of the question. I think he was like, he was the consensus pick at

five for a while, but you've gradually seen that basically lose all steam whatsoever. I did see it was Tony Pauline had his piece come out this morning, and he was speaking to Bowers because they just had their pro day.

He said 12 is his ceiling. He's not getting past 12. And I don't know if that was specifically because of the Broncos or what. But right now in stations out of Vegas, they actually opened up some over-unders. I want to say last week, their first market. It was honestly just great seeing over-unders. And they opened it up at 16 and a half, kind of tells you like i guess the perception of him which you were seeing mox in the 20s i don't see him getting his 20s if i lived in vegas i probably

would have bet the under right away and since then they've pulled it like he's not even listed on stations anymore but that seemed too high and there's just he is just the landline that it's just the position value like you really have no idea where he goes is really going to tell us what happens after that i mean i think the jet right now if i was to make him i'd probably go into the jets at 10 okay yeah i mean and that's my my issue with the jets in general is like because aaron rogers is so old and so just like we're gonna win now with him like do they want to invest in bowers like, you know, as a long term guy? Do they think that like he's good enough to be, you know, a startable player like right away and come and make an impact?

I think he probably is. But like especially we just saw with like Laporta come in and just be a baller from day one. Like maybe the whole narrative of like Titans need time to develop is kind of out the window. But at the same time, it honestly kind of depends on how Aaron Rodgers feels about that. And I have no idea how Aaron Rodgers feels. So that's kind of what I worry about with a skilled player here. Maybe he doesn't want a rookie. Maybe he's just going to, you know,

they should honestly trade their first-round pick for just like a player, an average player that is going to come in, start, and make Rodgers happy. Because, I mean, we all know it's his team at this point. So, Scott, any Bowers thoughts here? Yeah, I think Bowers to the Jets is where it does start to come into play. They recently just traded for Morgan Moses. They've kind of locked up like four or five of their offensive line spots.

So, you're going to have Tippman and Vera Tucker, who gets to move back inside and play his natural position of guard. And then they, like John Simpson, they signed from Baltimore and traded for Morgan Moses, who also was with Baltimore. So it's really, it's either left tackle or you could see them going Bowers. I think left tackle makes the most sense for them as far as trying to protect Aaron Rodgers. But I think Bowers is the earliest he starts to come in play is there with the Jets.

I still think that depending upon what type of free agency moves, I think just tackle, especially left tackle, is going to be a much more higher priority there for the Jets. And look, I think that that coaching staff and possibly their GM are drafting and coaching this year for jobs. I think if things fail this year with the Jets, you could see that whole thing just blown up. But they do still have some young pieces with Garrett Wilson. So it's one of those things where I think having Bowers at 10 is more of a luxury pick for a team that's not in a position to make a luxury pick and i mean i think you're uh that twitter guy that you love i don't know what's it like pickney or whatever pretty ricky yeah what's up i think he said something about uh tyron smith with the jets it was either yesterday or this morning

interesting so okay so then if he's saying that um mean, maybe there's a way to pivot here. So we're looking at the Jets' first pick market because, I mean, pretty Ricky don't miss. Like he's like 10 for 10 so far. So we're looking at Jets' odds right now. Minus 260 O-line, plus 350 wide out, plus 550 tight end, 10 to 1 D-line edge, 35 to 1 corner. I mean, they probably don't need a corner um like linebacker

quarterback safety running back kicker okay so none of that uh they're not taking any of those i think i mean there probably won't be a wide out left right if chicago's picking giants or you know chargers probably gonna have the second like that's the thing. If it goes, like if JJ goes in the top five. Yeah. I mean, right now, right now there's like a certified, I'd say eight guys in the top 10, maybe nine if you want to include JJ. Where if Alt has to go and let's say JJ goes top five and Neighbors makes it to, if Neighbors makes it to the Bears

because the Falcons and the Titans don't need a wide receiver anymore, the Doomsday could be there for the Jets at 10, which, I mean, I think that would be slammed up. Who else do they have? Garrett Wilson? Nothing. Alan Lazard.

If the Doomsday fell to 10, I would hope to God that they would pick him. I haven't seen one off of the jets so i just popped into my head and thought about it because all these free agent moves feel like they've pushed neighbors in a dunes eight down potentially no i was i mean that makes sense yeah so it's like if that happens yeah i mean i think a corner is actually in play. Really? Yeah. So when you look at it, you've got Sauce Gardner.

Everybody knows how good he is. But can you even name the other two corners that they have starting right now? Yeah, they still have DJ Reed, right? Yeah, it's DJ Reed and Michael Carter. And, I mean. Reed's good. You don't like Reed? Yeah, Reed's pretty good. Carter's okay. I mean, they's good. You don't like Reid? Yeah, Reid's pretty good. Carter's okay.

I mean, they drafted D-line last year. And you hear about – I mean, you hear that they missed – who did they want? They wanted – I mean, there's no running back that they could ever take right now. But didn't the Lions jump them for Gibbs? And they took McDonald instead, which to me – They they went on tilt like d line would make the most sense because it just lost like out of the eagles but they just took mcdonald and i know mcdonald

old and i don't know how he played last year he seemed like he didn't even play but i just signed so yeah yeah i know i i like this path though so really a wide receiver plus 350 tight end plus 550 d-line edge is 10 to 1 so like i mean corner 35 like jared verse maybe a 10 right because he's in that range i mean i think the bauer stuff could make sense like if yeah if odunes is not there like i just don't know what else they're gonna do like trade back i mean rogers would probably just quit and start his presidential campaign at that point. I mean it's like they're not trading back. So I don't know. I think that's an interesting conversation though.

Something to look for for sure. Like pay attention. I think these are like the moves that if we pay attention to free agent moves and you probably get value on this before they take it off the board at, you know, certain books. Because I think, I mean, things are going to shift based on like what they're doing, especially they get Tyron Smith. especially if they get Tyron Smith. If they get Tyron Smith, obviously O-line shouldn't be minus 260. So there's definitely some value elsewhere. Let's see here. Talked about Jets, talked about Bears. Yeah, I think that there's the next picks to look at is kind of this grouping of Vikings

and Broncos, but we think they both might be squarely in play to trade up. We talked about that a little bit. If they stand pat, I have truly no idea what either of them are going to do. I think that they're both like so into the quarterback conversation that, and they both need a lot of help in other places that like, I think they could really just be wild cards

to pick anyone. But this, like the 13 through 15 with like Raiders, Saints, Col colts i think are squarely in play for guys like quinn and mitchell and terry and arnold kind of like the first corners come off the board um scott like any any thoughts about about the corners here like where they go i know there's been some hype about quinn yawn maybe even skipping dallas turner but at this point it seems like he's probably like a seven or eight guy instead of a early teens guy. So two things of note. One, I think Minnesota signing Sam Darnold is important because it puts them in a position to where they have enough

flexibility to go ahead and give Darnold a year to go ahead and start if the price is too high to move up or if somebody jumps them. So I think they're flexible because they also went ahead and addressed the edge position through free agency. So I think it puts them in a position where if they miss out on quarterback, they're not necessarily just stuck like, say, Denver is. So I think Denver is going to be more aggressive, even though they have less assets to want to go ahead and move up. Talking about the corners, I have heard a little

bit about Quinion Mitchell possibly being the first one. He aced everything at the combine interview process, athleticism, big. He's got some tape against, I think, Marvin Harrison Jr. The other thing that I've been hearing, though, is that Byron Murphy is getting a lot of praise within the scouting community and NFL circles to actually be the second defensive player off the board. So I think there's a possibility you could see him jump these cornerbacks and even like another edge like Jared Verse and be the second defensive player off the board.

He aced everything at the combine, looked like a Greek god from what they said at weigh-ins and everything and looked really fluid for how big and how muscled up he is within the positional drills you start looking at at you know some of the defensive tackles and how the NFL is kind of transitioning to wanting to have more interior pass rush rather than just getting it off the edge and I think he's a guy that's going to be valued maybe a little bit more than what some of these cornerbacks are. No, that definitely makes sense. That's a good riser.

I think I have him in my newest mock going in like the late teens. We're looking at his range on VR sheet 8 to 23. Someone had him at – it looks like our guy Charlie Campbell at Walter Football had him at 8. He's always a wild card though. His mocks are always a little fun, especially early on. But there's a bet. So it's like,

they definitely have a couple of wild cards and you can already see who Walt has in terms of like his red flags. Some guy from like, who are they? Yeah. Jackson powers. He's an innovative in the first round. Amarius Mims, 31 Jenkins. He's had Chris Jenkins in the first round. Amarius Mims, 31. Chris Jenkins. He's had Chris Jenkins in the first round for a while.

Michael Hall out of Ohio State. He's had in the first round going like 17. I mean, he just stands by him. Like he finally pushed JJ into like the top 10, which he had him, I don't even think, going in the first for a while. Yeah, he also doesn't even have Chop Robinson in the first either. And I think Chop's kind of a lock to the first for a while. Yeah. He also doesn't even have chop, chop Robinson in the first either. And I think chops kind of a lock to be a first round pick, but yeah,

I mean, chocolate's kind of like cold and then he's definitely picked up since the combine, but like looking at like, I think like one of the most valuable exercises I go through and especially with my sheet is I really take like Jeremiah and Bruggler's like big boards. And then I compare it to the athletic consensus.

And you kind of like cross reference the two between like who do Jeremiah and Bruggler like rank higher than what the consensus is, relatively speaking. Usually I can somewhat imply like teams are higher on this guy if those two have him ranked a lot higher than the consensus. And right now byron murphy like it's not a big it's not a big discrepancy but guys like verse like they're a little bit higher on and i put zerline in there because mcshay isn't with the spn anymore and i hope he puts out a mock in rankings but figuring out like chop there a lot like chop there's a big discrepancy between the two and that's kind of where you can figure out like who's going to go earlier than what the mocks predicting and who teams are that are higher than like let's say the media or the public

and i think honestly byron murphy is one of those guys yeah no that definitely definitely makes sense um yeah that's that's a good call here and we have a question here and i'll kick it back to uh scott here then who's a specific player that you're really waiting for their draft position slash matchup market to show up i think once once we start looking at uh these top three wide receivers coming off i think brian thomas is a lot to be the number four wide receiver. He's the guy that I think you can kind of start placing to see which teams need wide receiver. They're still going to need a few things to play out through free agency.

But he's a guy, another guy, I think is just rising up draft boards. I think his numbers could have been way out of control if Malik Nabors wasn't there. So I don't think it's necessarily a situation where his stats are being propped up by Jaden Daniels, but his stats have been held back a little bit by just having another alpha there at LSU on the opposite side of him. In a couple of games that Nabors didn't play he he actually absolutely balled out you're talking about a guy that's like 6-3-2-10 ran a 4-3-3 at the combine he's a guy that's getting a lot of steam with the scouting community and I think he's a guy that can go

higher than what a lot of mocks will have him at right now yeah no that's definitely fair I mean there's there's zero over-unders right now so mean, it's, that would be great to have just any in general would be awesome. But Luke, anyone you're curious about and you're waiting for? I'm waiting for like second or third offensive lineman drafted. Cause right now we're looking at, right now it could be like eight or nine offensive linemen in the first round. And they're really, outside of like all being like the consensus, number one, like depending on who you look at it's going to be a different order of like rankings for

offensive line every single time i do think like the quote unquote value can really be had in the offensive line market especially like the second offensive lineman taken or the third and even the overrunners where i really don't think and i think we're going to get a better idea as we get closer but each like some of them are rolling the right tackles guys like the shano people are assuming it's going to be a left tackle there's just going to be there really is no certainty on the order of these offensive linemen and how they're going to go and i think that's going to create some fun numbers in those markets and even the overrunners. Historically, some of the most painful overrunners I've lost

have been offensive linemen. But this year feels, I mean, if nine, the average is, well, I have the average of five or six per year, and we're looking at nine right now. I think it's not a lot, but I have nine. The one thing that I'll piggyback on with the offensive linemen is this is a spot where you really have to do your research, and it's not just looking at the draft rankings and saying, well,

I think it's going to be this offensive lineman or this offensive lineman. These offensive lines run different schemes, whether it's power gap, whether, you know, what it is. And you have to start digging into some of these evaluations and some of the, you know, stuff that a lot of people in the scouting community are doing to see whether or not that offensive lineman, especially if it's going to be a tackle, if he's a left tackle versus a right tackle,

if he's a tackle that they're projecting that's going to have to kick inside, you know, some of those things. Like everything that I've read on Latham is that he is a right tackle only. As much as he wants to be a left tackle, and as much as his agent's trying to pump it up, he's going to be drafted as a right tackle. You just have to start looking at some of these breakdowns and evaluations in the scouting community to kind of match up these tackles

to what these offensive lines and what these offensive coordinators, to kind of match up these these tackles to what these offensive lines and what these offensive coordinators what kind of schemes they actually run i think that's one of the things that's a little bit undervalued here in the mock draft community and trying to to peg some of these offensive linemen to specific teams yeah like it's like the just signing moses yesterday is the right tackle and we're assuming they're going if they don't sign someone like tyron smith that they're going to be drafting like a specific type of left tackle and if you're looking at like the second offensive line taken and you think the Jets are going to be that team that takes them you can probably cancel or cross out guys like Latham because he's just

assuming he's a right tackle there Aaron Rodgers is is, they're all in on one year. So they're probably going to be drafting a ready left tackle. You would assume you would hope. So. Yeah, it would probably wouldn't be, you know, someone who's a little bit more of a project that definitely makes sense there.

We got him with the Chalamet in the chat. Also, I watched a dune last night, pretty good movie dune too. It was, it was solid flick. He said nothing wrong with a little artificial CLV on tiny, except for the fact that means absolutely nothing. chat uh also i watched dune last night pretty good movie dune 2 it was a solid flick uh he said nothing wrong with a little artificial clv on tiny except for the fact it means absolutely nothing

yeah you're you're right i mean it's l there's nothing worse than lclv like losing closing line value like getting a bunch of closing value and then still losing uh but it happens all the time so i don't know it always makes you feel good that's yeah i mean we all know it's artificial but it's the best and i mean i don't think it means absolutely nothing because the ridley moved meant something in regards to that bet that was an actual like you placed that bet before you knew they were going to sign ridley or trade with ridley and they got ridley and it definitely moved based off of that yeah no 100 100 there awesome um well that's about all that i had for today's they got Ridley and it definitely moved based off of that. Yeah, no, a hundred percent, a hundred percent there. Awesome. Um, well that's about all that I had for today's show. I mean, went through,

still found a way to go through 55 minutes without talking about a mock draft or anything. Anything else you guys wanted to touch on before we hop off here? Good. Awesome. Sweet. Cool. Well, you know, appreciate you guys all hanging out. Appreciate the questions. Hopefully we'll be back doing this with Noonan next week. So, you know, appreciate you guys all hanging out. VR, thanks for coming on as always. And, you know, Scott, we will chat soon. I'm sure have some more heated discussions offline about Drake May versus Jaden Daniels. Sweet. All right. Well, catch you guys next week. Bye.