Move The Line - NFL Picks for Week 13

Episode Date: December 1, 2022

Free NFL Picks for Week 13! Betting experts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan & John Daigle share their top NFL bets for Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season for FREE! Join them as they divulge the best odds and lines so you can get the best number at your favorite sportsbook! Timestamps:0:00 Intro5:01 TNF Thoughts13:25 WAS-NYG Bets18:16 JAX-DET Bets24:20 NYJ-MIN Bets30:07 TEN-PHI Bets37:59 MIA-SF Bets45:36 KC-CIN Bets52:26 GB-CHI Thoughts56:17 OutroWant a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/notJDaigleVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TbYo4X4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

Hello, welcome to Move the Line, I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by my friends Connor Allen, John Daigle, Daigle with a new background, a lot this time of year. This is, you know, Daigle season where he's in the car, on the road, doing different things. Where are you at today, buddy? My video is absolutely going to freeze, by the way, as I sacrifice my friend's Wi-Fi, who are, they are down with their kid watching Survivor. I think it's Survivor Night. I don't know what parents do. Nonetheless, nonetheless, grateful Thanksgiving week.

Um, everyone sees how many shows go on at four for four. Thus literally my only drive day is Thursday and the entire week. So I'll be driving back tomorrow, but we're here for a couple of shows on Wednesday night. Uh, Connor Allen. I am almost positive that Connor is never watched Survivor in his life. Oh, I have.

I actually used to love Survivor. Oh, okay. It's funny because I've never watched The Challenge. I've never seen that. I've watched The Amazing Race and I've watched Survivor. I used to watch those with my parents when I was a kid. I think they aired on Fridays or something like that when I was a young kid. Yeah, I liked it.

I thought it was good. I love Survivor. Yeah, I do too as well. The first five or six seasons, it became mundane, of course. I can't believe they're still going on actually. But no, I was a big Survivor fan. I'm also everyone's friend that could win Survivor since I've already slept in my car for basically an entire year.

I still like go out for runs and i just use wet naps to shower and then go straight to a brewery from there like i'm prepared to eat bugs and be homeless my entire life so i i look forward to the day i get to try out for survival i think you'd be too much of a target like i think you'd like come in and be like you'd like do some crazy shit people be like what the fuck like we got to get this guy out immediately like you know and then you'd be like the first one voted off or something like randomly. I would definitely be too content, content sleeping on bamboo leaves. So you're right.

It probably target me immediately. That would be one of the bigger problems for me is, you know, and probably, you know, it's partially, I think, you know,

age at this point in life. I don't know if I could handle the sleeping aspect of it. Like I, and I don't know, I like to think of that at an earlier life, I could definitely handle it and can handle the sleeping aspect of it. Like I, and I don't know, I like to think of that at an earlier life. I could definitely handle it and handle whatever the food aspects of it were. But I just, I don't know.

Are you getting the wrong tropical condition? Super hot, muggy, no food, bad sleep, uh, starts to get, uh,

pretty dicey at this point in my life. I think I'm probably more of a big brother guy. Um, it's like, you know, three times the length, but yeah, you're in an air conditioned house in LA for, you know, for a little bit. I think I could probably handle that

in all that comes with that. So. Especially when you have a 40 pound, one-year-old at your house, keeping you up all night, like you, those 30 days of sleep are much more important than winning survivor. Dude, that's, I know Connor couldn't wrap his mind around it at the time we were in Vegas. I'm like, I'm in Vegas to rest and to recover. Like this is the first time I've had, you know, not to have to sleep with an infant for quite a long time. So, yeah, I'll take it. I'm surprised that Connor was on the survivor train.

It's still going because the game is great and the new people come in and the social interactions, the way they kind of just interact with each other it's always great it's always fresh even though the premise is still there a lot of the framework is still there they've they've evolved some stuff over the years but it's a fantastic fantastic game so all right we are going to do our best to uh discuss and unpack our favorite games here on the week 13 slate we're gonna remind you we have shifted here wednesday night 7 30 eastern discussing our favorite games on the board and taking your questions.

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Goes a long way. Goes more than you understand. And if you're in the chat, let us know what your favorite side is. Side or total, what you're looking at this week. We'd love to unpack that for you. You guys have any Thursday night football thoughts before we jump into some of the best games?

We've had some kind of gross Sunday slates. This week's pretty nice. We had been, again, leading into Thursday night football. We didn't really discuss if we had anything on Thursday. Again, Pats and Bills there. Any quick off-the-top day go day go with you with New England and Buffalo? I already bet the over for this game. I think it's another weak spot for both defenses.

We obviously can't say that Buffalo is a stout defense, given that they have allowed two 300-yard passers in their last three games. And Jared Goff even threw for multiple touchdowns, at least on Thanksgiving. That game only came down to a field goal. And then, of course, what we didn't spot in betting the Patriots last week, even though we did call the Patriots offense breakout correctly against the Vikings, we didn't spot that their defense is a complete fraud. Now we have these examples against Tua, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields, and Kurt Cousins. And this Patriots defense is allowing over nine yards per attempt and 30 points per game in those five contests.

Basically, when they play anyone who is a professional quarterback, they are absolutely miserable. When they play Sam Ellinger, Mitch Trubisky, Zach Wilson twice, they are the best defense in the league, unsurprisingly. And so it's another spot against one of the best offenses in the league, unsurprisingly. And so it's another spot against one of the best offenses in the league, which also in their case has been struggling. So this is great. It's an amazing spot for Buffalo offense to bounce back. So I bet the over on both sides here. Carter, did you get down on anything? Anything that catches your eye here in this matchup? No, it was a lot of the same notes there as Daigle. I mean, it's just like any, any decent team they play, they've gotten, they've gotten wrecked. And you know, Buffalo's, I actually talked to you about that earlier,

but Buffalo's defense, I think is, you know, rest a little bit as well. And now losing Von Miller probably, you know, I mean, I think they're still good. It's just like, they're not like that, you know, elite defense that I think that you know, they could have been, and they have been at times, you know, in the past two years or so. Clearly they just, they were overmatched last year outside of the win game right so they met three times last year the win game would just kind of throw out because it was such a wonky thing and then they destroyed them in new england late in the season and then the playoff game was like it never happened like buffalo just went in there and ruled actually when you kind of look at

those games too and this fits a little bit of the rushing quarterback over play that we've been talking about and i was writing this up as an official play for us too i think the josh allen number 42 and a half is too low uh rushing yards there against the patriots 10 carries and 78 yards last week against detroit so that like kind of for me at least calmed any worries that i had about him maybe you know being concerned about his elbow or not want to take any hits like they ran and detroit was also that matchup right we talked about a lot of blitz heavy stuff and man heavy stuff that's new england as well and we look at the two matchups again late in the season last year and the playoff matchup 67 yards 68 yards so 42 and a half for alan is too low um that is available on draft kings minus 120 and remandre at four and a half receptions still too low you talked

about it last week it's three and a half dagel's like how is that not five and a half receptions, still too low. We talked about it last week. It's three and a half. Daigle's like, how is that not five and a half? It's moved back and forth. It's back on DraftKings at plus 100 at four and a half. He went out and had another like 10 target, nine catch game against Minnesota. Now Harris isn't practicing. Harris really isn't impacting the way

that they're using Ramondre on passing downs anyway. But like, again, just 37% target share last week. He is just getting fed in the passing game. Four and a half is still too low in even money. And again, part of it too was the zone thing last week with Minnesota. Buffalo plays almost as much zone as the Vikings did last week.

So Ramondre, over four and a half receptions and Josh Allen over 42 and a half are plays for me too. How is that the number again, by the way? He went over four and a half are placed for me too. I also, is that, how is that the number again, by the way, he went, he went over four and a half with Damian Harris, which again, we were confident in when,

when Harris was available. Now Harris is out. Like we've already seen his usage earlier this year in two games without Damian Harris. How are we at this four and a half again? That's crazy. Yep. And plus 100 over,

like we're not even paying juice through the nose on it too. So. Yeah, that's wild. I was interested inosh allen's passing over in two games last year that were non-win games he had throw over 300 yards in both my only concern is that like i mean this lion secondary is like i mean the worst in the league and you know he they ended up they have been better i mean they didn't have jeff okuda And I mean, no, I know that they played really well, but I think it's more so that Josh Allen didn't play well, uh, versus them playing well. And to me, that was telling is that even if, you know, maybe they've been better, like,

you know, they're still not good. And I think that a quarterback like Josh Allen, whose caliber is, you know, I mean, he's elite when he's fully healthy and, and totally fine. Like it wasn't there. And I mean, 253 yards, like they, they didn't look right all the time. I know the final scoreboard, you know, says that they put up 28, but it just wasn't all there throughout the game. So for me, like I would consider taking the over, but I was not impressed to be honest throughout the game. But so, but for matchup context, does it matter? That's the thing like Josh Allen can be bad and still have success here. Well, I mean, I think it matters in the sense that he played

a significantly worse defense in the Lions last week, didn't get there, and then now is playing an overrated defense to your point. It's just not something that if I knew that he was crushing coming into this game, this would be like an auto over 270 yards. I think Dago froze. That's a good freeze. He looks really good. Yeah.

We're going to need to repurpose that for social for sure. Yeah. Sal, if you could write down this time, that'd be lovely. Yeah. I don't have a thought on – partially because I lose both of you. I don't have a great thought on the rushing or I'm sorry, the passing, but I think the rushing play is great.

Again, kind of alleviated those concerns last week, ran a ton. And then the match against New England, who plays a ton of man, I think works really, really well. So I also played a tackle prop for our subscribers.

I'm going to leave that for our subscribers. You're going to want to get in there and get in our discord. I got these hands. I just got out of the shower. I had to pick all the dirt out from under my nails because I spent so much time in the weeds, in the dirt this week. Connor can attest that I am now building out tackle projections. So we're not even just doing like a little bit of tackle analysis and looking at some matchup stuff and looking at trends.

I literally went in and built tackle projections. That is only for our subscribers, the tackle people. I love you. Appreciate the support. We're going to continue to kill that market. We are absolutely ready for whatever they give us. So there's a tackle prop posted for that game between Buffalo and New England. And we'll have a bunch this week with Thanks to some help with some other subscribers,

we can go ahead and just plug in the sides and total and get some EV distributions. I'm excited, Connor. I can't wait for the tackle. I'm pumped. You've been doing a good job humoring me here for this as well. So if you're listening to the podcast, we appreciate it. Subscribe.

The betting sub at 444 is more than half off at this point, right? We're more than half off through the season. It's discounted on the site, 444. more than half off at this point, right? We're more than half off through the season. It's discounted on the site, 444.com slash plans. You use the promo code NEXTLEVEL to get you an additional 25% off. So, yeah, the grass is, Derek, it's a little dead, but not all dead. Chicago, we've had like 40-50 degree weather. It's still a little bit pliable. You can get your hands in there.

We are doing that on the tackle side for sure. It's trying to, you know, find any way that we can beat the market, uh, make money for ourselves and for our subscribers. So four, four.com slash plans, promo code next level. The betting subscription is the way to access everything on the site. Every article tool, et cetera. When Zinkle comes back, uh, he can tell you about all the DFS stuff he does. That's all included as well.

So that's all I have on Thursday. Went a little bit longer on that too, but we'll keep the train moving Connor. And then what we get Dale and he comes back, he comes back. So is he, is he a Chris G's house or is he at a friend's house? Not sure.

He was at Chris. He was at G's last time, but it's a different background. So maybe, but maybe he just moved desks. Yeah. If it's Chris G, I'll be shooting him a message.

Maybe you can upgrade his wifi from cricket wireless to maybe, you know, get some, get some real internet out there. While we wait for him, we'll remind folks that Connor and I do another episode of move the line every Friday, 2 PM Eastern with Pat Mayo.

And that is our prop drop show. We just go around, share our favorite props of the week, talk through some stuff and take all your listener questions as well. So another reason to subscribe here to the YouTube channel. And again, if you're listening via podcast, you want to stop by on Friday and check that out too live. And that podcast comes into your feed early first thing on Saturday morning.

And again, those lines move quickly. So getting on the show with us live at 2 p.m. Eastern on Friday, I think is absolutely crucial. Games of the Week. Like you said, really good slate this week. Some like playoff implications for some of these games. We've had really a gross Sunday slate for the most part, but we had a bunch to choose from.

So we'll start in the NFC East. We got Washington on the road against the Giants. Let's see, someone's been moving a little bit. Washington two and a half basically now across the board. Total out there at 40 and a half it's not like a super sexy on paper matchup but as of now all four nfc east teams are playoff bombs which i think if you go back connor and watch our divisional preview we definitely had that in the show like especially these two teams they should definitely play out teams for us so

yeah that that's what's most shocking to me is that both was and the giants, like you started this off, we're going to talk about some playoff teams here. And our first game is the giants and Washington. I mean, if you would have told me that before the season, I would have probably just been like, all right, well, maybe the world ended or, you know, like some, something serious happened here for that, for that to happen. But no, they've just strung together a bunch of wins here. And what's interesting to me is, so Washington's been on a little bit of a heater, winning six of their last seven games.

But four of those wins were against the Bears, Texans, Falcons, and Colts. Personally, I don't have much faith in either side here. I think that this took some money Washington's way. But I mean, Washington, two and a half point favorites on the road against anyone is tough. And against a Giants team that has somehow cobbled together wins scares me a little bit.

I don't know. I need any thoughts there, Noonan before we've tossed it to Diggle. Yeah. I mean, that's fair. I mean, I think that,

so this is a little bit like, we'll get to this in a, in a matchup later where I was thinking about like talking about how like teams beat up on bad teams. And it's like, it matters, but at the same time, like we want them to,

right. And you've got to take advantage of the low hanging fruit in your schedule. So we want to give them credit for beating the inferior teams that come across their way. I don't think that like Washington is like a true contender, which I think is the point that you're getting to as well. Like six out of seven.

And they're definitely like, they get the giants, they got to buy and then they get the giants again. So they literally, they want six to seven. They could very easily be eight of9 in a matter of weeks here and very much controlling their own destiny heading into the playoffs. So, Dagle, I'd love to get your thoughts here.

That's the conclusion I came to as well. You don't win 6-7 by fluke. It's hard to win 6-7 in the NFL. At the same time, I think it's the hitting the Giants at the perfect time because Saquon Barkley now, he's lost the juice. He's 10 touches away from the most he's recorded since his rookie year, and you can see it. He's averaging 3.7 yards per touch in his last four games.

He's got nothing left when you watch him play. And so, like, that's their offense. Like, that's literally all they have going for them. That game against the Cowboys was a blowout. They did cover, but it was because of a garbage-time touchdown. So I genuinely think it's just the perfect time to match up for Washington in favor of them over the Giants. And so that's the way I lean.

It's not because Taylor Heineke's winning games, as Ron Rivera said. Even when the media asked him, why is Heineke the starter over Carson Wentz? He said, because we're winning. Like, that's it. You got nothing else. They're also averaging 10 fewer pass attempts per game than they were averaging Carson Wentz,

which is why like the receivers aren't doing anything. Terry McLaurin included either because no one's getting their Tyler Heineke. They're just winning. That's all they're doing. So it's just the perfect spot, honestly. So I do like Washington this game. And from a matchup perspective too,

I think it's worth noting, like the Giants defense continues to be, you know, poor in most metrics, 29th and overall DVOA, 28th against the pass, 27th against the run. And on the other side here, like Washington's run defense has been really good. So as you mentioned, like Saquon has not been playing well, now runs into a buzzsaw, you know, matchup here. I think it's really, really tough for, it's really tough for me to get behind the Giants here. But I don't know, match up here. I think it's really, really tough for, it's really tough for me to get behind the giants here. Um, but I don't know. It just, it just seemed a little, little much laying, laying two and a half on the road, but I get it. I think three is certainly a stay away, probably two and a half to lean in Washington, just given the matchup. Yeah. Knowing that really the only way that they can move the ball is on the ground is just such

a tough matchup because again, you, the only way really, well, not the only way you can obviously run on the commanders a little bit, but like they are very stout upfront, very susceptible to the pass. And the giants just don't have that in the equation right now. Like guys are hurt. The offensive line is, is dinged up.

It's going to be kind of a mess. The giants just have this weird, I don't know, man. Like you think about this team being seven and four would be playoff team. Like they are the worst team defensively on first downs, dead last in both DVO against the run and the pass, which is an impressive feat.

And they are dead last defensively in the second half of games. Like these are, this is not the makeup of a playoff team whatsoever. So when you think about how can we be seven and four and disrespected on the road and, you know, we're home dogs. It's like, it's just not there guys. It's just not like, it's not how the betting markets work. Um, they are the inferior team here. And, uh, yeah, I'm, I'm with the, I kind of liked the two and a half there and, you know, then they're going to go home and play them in two weeks as well. And probably be, you know, four and a half or so it's just

going to be kind of a mess there for the giant. So got to hold their butts, uh, to get to the finish line. All right, jacksonville on the road in detroit uh let's see where we're moving here i want to capture this um so shop around i mean a little bit of movement discrepancy some places draft kings has the lions as a small one point favorite uh caesars mgm points bets all have jacksonville as a one point favorite so again pretty minute when we're working around zero here. But, again, like if you have a lean on like a money line, it's the difference between plus money and, you know, laying the juice there.

So shop around. 51.5 is the total. Small stable theater here, but over the past four weeks, Trevor Lawrence leads the league in completion percentage over expectation. He trails only two up in runningbacksdont't matter.com rb sdm.com and their composite epa plus completion percentage over expectation metric which i think is probably one of the best metrics to like one stop shot catcher capture quarterback play so playing really good football best football's career goes to detroit now i feel like the lions that we said

are playing a little bit better doesn't feel like a like a spot where Trevor Lawrence suddenly has a hiccup here. They do deserve some credit, though. They had won three in a row heading into Thanksgiving. They gave the Bills a good matchup there. They do have a couple of offensive linemen that are questionable here, and that matters, I think, for the Lions. We need to still find out Jeff Okuda's status as well, Connor. Talk to me about Jacksonville and Detroit.

Yeah, my initial lean here was the over just when handicapping it because I thought we were going to get something in the high 40s, but the total is 51 and a half. And I still think the over is in play here. It just really depends on like, or, you know, as you mentioned, Jacksonville basically coming into this game

on a massive heater. Trevor Lawrence playing the best football of his career by far. You know, 31, 31 and 25 points. The Lions offensive scored as well the last three weeks. So I think that like kind of the optimism there for this game script is like, I almost think that it's just a little bit more volatile because Trevor Lawrence, we've seen the lows. I mean, they put six points against the Texans. They really, he's really struggled at times, just like been really volatile, but it's been just crushing

lately. And I think that the matchup here is great as well so i would almost rather like if you want to bet a total year you can get over 58 and a half points at plus 200 a fan duel like two to one i think that like if everything hits here like this game is going to be 60 plus points easy if it doesn't hit then it's it's going to be close like it's going to be really close and i think that that's uh that's just more of the way that I'd rather play it because I think the upside here is just like massive. It's annoying because I ate the money line when the lions opened minus one thinking the hype would grow even more, but it's gone the other way. As you mentioned, like the lines are underdogs now. And that's ridiculous. Like just, just take the lions perspective into our view really quick and knowing they had 10 days rest staying at home.

Let's just start with that in general against the Jaguars. But then look at this small sample Trevor Lawrence is creating, and he has come of age these last three games to Conner's point, over nine yards per attempt and three scoring drives in the fourth quarter alone against the Ravens, a 75% completion rate and six touchdowns, zero interceptions in his last three starts. He also, in those three games, leads the league in completion rate under pressure, 75% and a 75% completion rate as well against the Blitz. As we know, the Lions Blitz at a top five

rate. So like everything the Lions want to throw at him, you would think the Jaguars can have success on offense. But again, I look to their defense because Lawrence's growing coming of age is overshadowing the fact that this Jaguars defense is one of the worst in the leagues. Like only the bears are playing worse in the last month, six yards per play and their top nine in both rushing and passing yards allowed in their last six games. Even the Ravens last week reached the red zone on six possessions and they ran nine gold to go plays. They just kicked more field goals than touchdown score because they're the Ravens and I had them stacked in DFS. They wanted to piss me off.

So like nothing the Jaguars are doing on defense suggests they're going to stop the lions at all. So I do think it's a shootout, but I still want the lions money line. I want the lions to win outright everywhere. Yeah. The Mark Andrews, I swear Mark Andrews was like,

don't get me started. like shaving points in that game just literally batting down a touchdown just oh my gosh didn't want it it was like i made like we were talking about it in the discord like it's like a like a volleyball set like he was like he wasn't sure he's like trying to pass it to someone else like it was oh and that's that's only complaining about props and fantasy of course they did score two plays later so like it didn't matter at all but more importantly that team can and i blame it on well i don't blame it i attribute it to rashad bateman's injury because that team can't score in the red zone right now they look up and it's only deshaun jackson and demarcus robinson who

are fine players but they're fine ancillary players they can't lead your team and right now do that team that's a whole nother game, but that team cannot score. Yeah, when you look at Jacksonville's defense, they are exceptional against the run on first down. So if you do what you probably shouldn't do a ton of offensively, just run into base defenses, otherwise you can exploit this defense.

They are like pretty much horrible bottom three on second down and third down. So yeah, if they can find ways to, and Detroit actually doesn't really lean heavy on first down. I think I thought they did when I looked into it, I was like, Oh, okay. The kind of middle of the pack, they actually skew a little bit past heavy on first down, which is, which is good to see. So yeah, actually I mentioned in the look-ahead article last week,

this total was 48.5 in the look-aheads. We definitely thought that it would crawl through 49, and here we are at 51.5. So definitely check that out. I think it's going to be an interesting game for DFS purposes. Not a ton of playoff implications for either of these clubs, though. You never know. I mean, Jacksonville, if they can continue to roll a little bit,

maybe can make their way. But, you know, compared to the rest of the games, I just thought it was a fun one to talk about because I knew Dangle would have some, you know, DFS thoughts because it's going to be a high total game and we're plugged into that one. So it should be a fun one to watch, though, back and forth. Not a whole lot of defense. All right.

This one's interesting. New York Jets in Minnesota. This one's interesting. New York Jets in Minnesota. This one has moved quite a bit as well. Basically have the Jets three across the board of the juice fairies. It's almost leaning towards, you know, going to two and a half on Minnesota side. So again, this was four and a half, three and a half at open. So Jets definitely taking a lot of action here. 44 and a half is the total. You can make the case that last week's version of the Bears defense without Roquan Smith, Robert Quinn, Jaquan Brisker was out for that one.

They lost Eddie Jackson in like the second quarter. Might be like the worst defensive unit on the field at any point in the league this season. But regardless, folks are ready to give Mike White the Jets job full time. And I think it says as much about Zach Wilson as it does Mike White, but he looked solid. And what the coaching staff had to say is that he made the easy stuff look easy, I think is very telling.

They're definitely a more interesting team with Mike White, considering how well the defense is playing. And I think the market standpoint is kind of indicated you know, indicated in the back of them here. Dagle, what are your thoughts on this matchup? It's going to be interesting. I like the jets in this game quite a bit for all the reasons we incorrectly named for Kirk cousins under pressure last week,

but it's the same spot. And one, I think has better trends given that all year long, this jet Stevens has been amazing. They just haven't been getting help from their offense they're still top six and sack rate top four and pressure rate and that's how we weaken kirk cousins in this passing game but now we got at least competency from mike white and mike white like don't don't get it wrong like I understand the running backs collectively combined for a 25 target share again garrett wilson of course led

the team with a 28% target share, but Mike White still went four for four on passes over 15 yards. Like he showed some explosiveness as well. And again, like we were on for Matt Jones, knowing the Viking secondary is their weakest product. They're throwing on the field on defense. Like it's the same thing for Mike White attacking that secondary.

So I do like the jets. I think they're maybe not better on offense, but the defense is the great denominator here. And so I like the Jets outright or to just take the number at least. Connor, what do you got here? I kind of like the over in this one. It's at 44 and a half. And I think that Minnesota is going to have a little bit more success

than I guess we gave them credit for last week. A lot of it has to do a little bit more success than, you know, I guess we gave him credit for last week. A lot of it has to do with kind of part of us do with the man zone splits with the Jets secondary plays mostly zone. I mean, I don't know the numbers I was looking at had them just like, I mean, above average of getting pressure, but I don't, I didn't see them in the top five. Also on the other side though, on with Mike White, like he did exactly what we wanted to. He takes what's given to him. And then he made a couple of great throws. Like, I feel like that's just who he is. And that was part of the reason that his running back target share was so high last week or last year was because the only thing that was given to him was his dump offs to his running backs. That's all he was

taking. And that's, that's fine. That's like basically exactly what you want in a quarterback, uh, in general, especially in a scheme that, you know, the jets are running, which can get guys open at times and and can get guys in good spots. And so it's a perfect fit. Now facing Minnesota's defense, 27th to pass TVOA, 30th in explosive pass rate allowed as well. So I mean, I think this game could go well over 44 points. You're talking about 24, 21 gets us over.

I'm in. So I think that's a good look. I think if this is close to the half, I'm not taking any pregame stances. I think if it's close to the half, I think the Jets are a tremendous live bet. When you look at Minnesota, they are one of the teams, we've got another one coming up, that are tremendous in their essentially scripted first 15 or whatever, however many of the team does.

They are a first half team, both offensively and defensively actually and they are a very different offense actually bottom five and dvoa in the second half uh the jets go the other way they play both uh better on both sides in the second half so something to look out for again like minnesota top eight and dvoa in the first half to they typically scored a lot of times in their first drive of the season um so yeah i, I mean, if the Vikings need to stay balanced and ahead of the chains here to have a chance, because the Jets have been outstanding defensively in anything that profiles as a clear passing down.

You know, second and long, second and medium, third and long, they've been terrific. So, yeah, I'm going to stay away pregame. I think, you know, unless you got the early plus numbers, you know, more than three, you feel probably pretty good about that if you're back in the Jets here. If you were on Minnesota, maybe I would want to back them in the first half or maybe even the first quarter. Like I typically don't like to take those kind of plays,

but I think that there are some splits here that are interesting, that are maybe actionable at this point in the season where we're, you know, 12 games in. I feel like we have a pretty good sense of these teams that have a good early feel on their scripted plays and stuff. So yeah, the Jets in the second half as a live bet, if this is even close, I think is probably how we'll get down to this game. So it's going to be an interesting one. I'm interested to see obviously the sauce Gardner and really just,

you know, the corners and how they match up and choose to defend Jefferson here. Sauce has not been a shadow guy this season. I mean, you know, Jefferson has been absolutely, it doesn't matter who he's playing. But,

you know, again, lit up new England. Who's been good defensively, but like you guys poke holes in, like they don't have that guy, that type of corner to match up. So yeah,

it's going to be a great battle. I think part of the issue too. And that was part of our issue with the handicap is that Justin Jefferson was still getting, like he was getting not only covered in man, but also they were like, you know, shading the safety over the top. And he was still just like beating both of them. It was just one of those games where Justin Jefferson was like, yeah, I'm better than everyone. And so that happens, you know, it's just, it's just one of those things that's going

to happen from time to time with how good he is. And, you know, this is a spot, another spot where he can prove that. And, uh, even if he doesn't show up though, I still like the Vikings chances of moving the ball here. All right, next Tennessee is on the road in Philly. Philly is a five and a half point favorites. Caesars has a five, 44 and a half is the total. I think when the Eagles are rolling offensively, they can beat you in any way that you will allow them to. And the Packers allowed them to make chunk plays on the ground. A lot of that was Jalen Hurts. Sledding will be significantly tougher on the ground here against a pretty stingy Titans run defense. We've seen teams skew pass heavy against the Titans.

They have a second highest pass rate over expectation against them on the season. Fits the A.J. Brown revenge game narrative here. When the Titans have the ball, we know what they want to do and they want to run the football, and that's clearly been the optimal way to move the ball against the Eagles. I know Connor has been feasting on quarterback unders against the Eagles all season long, even with the defensive upgrades that they've made in recent weeks. This one's interesting to me because we just had Eagles opponents here, right? With the Packers last week and now the Titans this week, those two teams just played each other. This is a little bit bigger than it was

with Green Bay with that late movement there. Yet the Titans just went in to Green Bay and won. This one feels a little bit off. I'd love to get your thoughts, Dale. And to your point, no player has rushed more than 66 yards against the Titans since week two. So, you know, the Eagles just can't show up and rush for 360 yards. Good grief. Again, it was absolutely insane watching that game, but they can't get away with that. But they can get away with being the Eagles. And that's what makes this game really exciting.

That's why I can continue to say at the beginning of these games, I bet these because I have a lot of bets this week. Uh, but I did bet the over early on in this game because the Titans have only sent 26 blitzes all year and instead lead the league with snaps with four rushers or less. And only two of has averaged more yards per attempt against four pass rushers or less this year than Jalen hurts. Both who were the only quarterbacks averaging over nine yards per attempt against that situation. Not only that, but we know you attack the Titans through their wide receivers in allowing the most yards per attempt to opposing wide receivers. And A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, since Dallas Goddard has been out the past two weeks, have a counter for 59% of this team's targets. They only go to A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith now. And so given the fact

that the Eagles just can't run, given the fact that they're going to have to throw and have success doing it, but also these past two games, Ryan Tannehill has thrown for at least 34 attempts and two of the last three. They've increased their pass player rate neutral game script significantly the past three games since Tannehill returned from injury. So I think we have a lot of sneaky juice in this game. And I think it should be closer to 48 and a half, 49 rather than 43, 44. So I like the over a lot. Nice. We got Connor. Yeah. It's, it is interesting with this Philly team because we talked about it last week in their match with green Bay. Like we, I felt like they were going to get back to their basics, lean on the crutch. That's a running game and exploit the Packers. And I felt like, you know, that back to their basics, lean on the crutch. That's a running game and exploit the Packers.

And I felt like, you know, that, that was played out perfectly. But now in this spot, as you mentioned, they're not going to be able to do that. And so, but I think that's okay because like they've shown us at the beginning of the year, like they have a really good, like quick passing game and they have a really good, just passing him in general. If they want to just go like extremely pass heavy. And I think that that's, that's okay. And that's, that's something that they want to do here.

And that's, they should have plenty of success with that. Um, on the other side though, I would say that like their main weakness right now, I know Jordan Davis just got activated. Um, I mean, it's still allowed, uh, over a hundred yards and 20 carries of the Packers last week. So I would say that, that, that adds to Daigle's point about the over here, about the Titans probably having some success on the ground, regardless of if Jordan Davis plays a little bit, I know live all Joseph and now I'm consumer still get kind of getting up to speed there. But I think eventually the Eagles run defense will be good again,

but it seems like they're a pretty clear run funnel at this point. And you know, I mean, the Titans should have success. So I think the over would be Madeline. I thought the number came in like a little bit too high. It was like at six at one point. Now it's down to,

we're looking at like four, five and a half still may be too high. I had this closer to like four just in general with the eagles yeah i kind of do too i mean that was kind of the point that i'm getting at i just don't it feels high and again when you're kind of you know picking around between these key numbers it doesn't matter a ton but like with the way things go nowadays like the four does kind of matter the four and a half does when you get into like you know say a 24 20 game and stuff like that like so you know anytime you can get a better number you want to get a better number regardless of how it matters in uh as far as key totals and key numbers go for sure uh evy evy also

one of our listeners said like all season eagles first half team total over 13 and a half i think that's missed once all year uh i don't know if i remember correctly maybe maybe once yeah because if we've either done that a lot and if not you can get like two touchdowns um at like either better or similar juice which i think is also another viable way to to attack this year i don't know i i'm so as i remember having these notes from like probably week six like the tennessee offense is like by far the best in the red zone league but now here we are again through 12 weeks they are by far the best in the red zone league. But now here we are again through 12 weeks. They are by far the best red zone offense in the league. They're both statistically first in DVOA passing in the red zone and running

in the red zone. And it's like, they just don't, it doesn't pass the eye test necessarily. If we're just kind of Rolodexing NFL offenses, we're not thinking of, Oh, the Titans are just this incredible machine.

But like, this is just kind of happened year in and year out. Vrabel tends to, you know, squeeze a little bit more from the orange than there is, than you would think in there. So, and also here, similar to the point I made about the Vikings, a great live betting opportunity here as well. Tennessee offense, massive first and second half splits.

Fifth and DV away offensively in the first half, 31st in the second. So if the Eagles have a slight lead, I think there's a higher likelihood that they pull away in the second half because they probably, you know, Tennessee is not going to be able to lean on Derek Henry quite as much. Some of the things that we think they need to do to establish that play action game and do the things that they really want to do. If the Eagles even have a little bit of lead,

I think that they're able to kind of pull away. So I think backing maybe Philly in the first half, I think it works there too. But if you want to get down on some live action, I think the Eagles are a nice look. So you choose to double down, you choose to wait and see what happens in the first half, but I'm going to be watching to see what happens there.

And we'll probably jump on some live Eagles. If that is the case, Connor 28 and 32% target share for AJ Brown, these past two games. I know the results haven't necessarily been there, but get the discord on his props. This is the week. Yeah. I think, I think you had literally, it's in my notes. It's like Eagles pass catcher overs, Jalen hurts, passing attempt overs, Jalen hurts overs. I feel like everyone can just explode. And like you said, AJ Brown revenge game, but seeing the work smash spot. I'm very excited that everyone's going to be on the Bengals Chiefs game

because I want to be all over this game. I love Connor. You're going to post an elite wide receiver over this week. I mean, maybe I will. I feel like this is, this is one of the rare times that it happens. It's definitely more of your speed, but I can get behind it. It was, it was one of my few early notes, but I do something that I told you. I was like, I got to stop taking so many damn overs i've lost like like

you know so many overs by like a couple of yards and i'm just like i'm sick of it i'm like i'm done it's got a bit 10 unders it's shut the games off and go smell the roses on sundays instead of you know sitting there drenched in sweat that dalton schultz missed his prop by like three yards the worst paving new streets over here. You can come on in. The water is warm. You know, time to get you over to the other side, you know,

watch the game differently. I was talking on the, the spaces on Monday with, uh, with one of our guests saying that, Oh, slop, uh,

John high slop. I said that I was, I was giving you a shout out, uh, about the tackle props. And he was asking me about kicker props. I said, I might have to get into those as you pivot to tackles.'m gonna have to get into some like total points or uh whatever props

like that leverage some like red zone stats and efficiency stats so i don't know we'll see there you go love it always evolving all right next uh this is gonna be a good one miami is on the road in san francisco san francisco is four in most places um vuel has a juiced three and a half. 46 and a half is the total now. We're going to hear a lot about the familiarity between the coaching staff here with Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan. I think that McDaniel knows the – he's smart, right? He knows the path, the least resistance here for Miami is going to be to throw the football, avoid this Niners rush defense as much as possible.

I think the offensive line injuries, especially the Teron Armstead, complicates things a little bit, but I think that they are going to lean pass heavy and it's worked quite a bit too. It has been terrific of late. And this is kind of what I was talking about earlier. Miami has been that curb stomping

kind of the JV of the NFL. They have four straight games of 30 points or more and they're against bad teams. But again, like at least they're doing that. At least we're seeing a ceiling when it's capable and they're turning it on Connor. So to and on what's going on here. Yeah. My initial lean was the dolphins, but so you brought that up and it's interesting because if we look at both these teams, so the San Francisco defense, the Miami offense, as you mentioned, Miami offense has been crushing against the Texans, Browns, bears, lions drop 30 plus in all those games. But if you look at the Niners defense, they played Kansas city and they got absolutely wrecked allowed 44 points.

They played six games against legit bottom five offenses. Like, I mean, just like horrible offenses. So they're definitely a good unit. Don't get me wrong. And I think Miami is definitely good too. It's just that a lot of their metrics and, you know, dominance, I think had been fueled by just playing piss poor opponents and that's okay. But I think that I just don't know like what wins out here. And I think that that's what I go back and forth on is it with Miami without probably without Taryn, Taryn arm said without Austin Jackson, like they're, I don't think their offensive line is in a great spot here to do anything like long developing plays. Like I think I think they're in a really tough spot. So they're like, they might not be able to do as many of their like, like deeper play actions or anything. It's probably gonna have

to be a lot of like quick scheme stuff, which is probably okay. And I think that they can have success with that. It's just that they may not have their full arsenal of being able to throw deep. And I think that could be problematic because the Niners secondary is like, I mean, if they have a weakness, like it's, I think of explosive pass rate, they're, you know, below or they're like about average, you know, which is again for a defense, that's like top three and everything, uh, you know, an average, you know, a metric to pick at is okay. So I go back and forth. I, I think the number of four and a half was too high.

It's climbing down to three and a half. I think that's about right for me. It's kind of a stay away because I just, I just don't know what wins out a day. Gold. Do you, you have any thoughts there about, about, about the cider total? I, again, a lot of bets this week. I bet the under already on this game. And it's, it's practically because of what you said already that yes, this Dolphins offense, 33 and a half points per Tua, 10 touchdowns, no interceptions over the last month. But I, and this isn't to say that they can't have success against the Niners, but again, you can't take it for real

whenever it's the Lions, Bears, Browns, and Texans. Like you literally can't drop a better schedule for Tua to have success against. And also, I don't think it's coincidence that again, the Teron Armstead injury led to Tua having a season high four sacks in 35 minutes against the Texans as well. And now we know that this Dolphins team has recorded 111 dropbacks without Teron Armstead on the field this year. And they've been, the quarterbacks have been

pressured and over 50, 50% of those dropbacks. So it just seems like a bad spot, honestly. And one that's more of a feel out game for later later as opposed to one that I think goes over the total. Interesting. I've got a couple nuggets here. First of all, this is not a typical bet that I make, but I feel like this is a multi-touchdown pass week for Jimmy G. We're going to probably get some interesting numbers there, but we've highlighted the splits and how he's significantly better against man coverage.

You'll see a good amount of that here in Miami or against Miami, just as he did last week against the Saints. And this Miami red zone defense continues to be an issue. They are the worst red zone pass defense in the league by a pretty significant amount. And again, against a really strong rush defense, this makes it a pretty clear passing funnel here for Jimmy G. Actually, Miami's run defense has been solid too. Surprisingly, by a pretty large chunk, San Francisco's defense is the worst in the league on third down in medium and third down in short. It's really bad. They're really good against third and long situations.

So this game, to me, all comes down to how Miami can manage early down success rate. If they can successfully run the ball a little bit or, you know, quick short stuff out to let the receivers do a lot of work. This has been a problem for San Francisco who doesn't really have schematically. They're great.

They don't really have great corners to match up here with this, this Miami team. I took the Miami team total over at 20 and a half so that's too low um again i i understand like trepidation the game total going crazy but i don't know for miami to be a little bit on the right like 21 i think they get to 21 24 so getting a uh 20 and a half i thought was was pretty viable considering the upside of this offense and in a spot where maybe San Francisco can push them a little bit. So I don't have any side action now, but I think it's going to be a great football game. And I love the chess match that we're going to see here. As Per Mar also says in the chat, I'm also a communist for betting the

under, so don't listen to me, but I did bet the under. I really did. It's, it's one of my favorite bets of the week, actually. Interesting. Yeah. Because, and, and Abby brought it up here since the Mahomes shredding, they played bad Stafford Dalton, Colt McCoy chargers, missing every pass catcher. Um, it is really interesting. I don't, don't think that there's necessarily like a clear answer, uh, to it, but to Newton's point, 21 and 21 and a half is probably the number that I'd put it at 20 and a half. You're getting on the right side of that. So I feel pretty good about that. Um,

I I'm interested though. Do you think that, like, do you think Miami's defense slows down San Francisco much? I think the San Francisco is dealing with enough injuries to where Mike McDaniel has seen all of this. Like if you, if you take Christian McCaffrey or make him limited in the picture, it's literally the exact same 11 guys that McDaniel helped coordinate last year.

Like they're not going to throw anything new at them whatsoever. So yeah, I just think it's just genuinely, especially with how often we know Miami still blitzing at a top three rate, you're gonna have to run against them. I do think it's actually going to be a much slower paced game. That's fair. I just think Jimmy, we look at the splits has had more success against man, being able to get the ball out quickly to Brandon Ayuk to make plays on the outside, I think we're going to see some of that here. And Phil makes a great point too.

49ers can and will likely do this and have success rushing just for creating pressure and making it a little bit more complicated back there for Tua. But again, I'm encouraged by what we've seen. And again, of all the guys too that are up there as far as EPA per play, completion percentage over expectation, Tua has a 9.3 average depth of target,

which is like a yard and a half higher than Mahomes and a lot of the other guys that are up there. This is not just a check down game manager, yak guy. He's really been outstanding this year. So he's going to have to do here this is a hard test but like we poke some holes and in the san fran defense as well again they can't have they can't have success i consider it more of a litmus test than most people though so yeah i think that's fair i would rather i'd rather just bet the opposite way but i understand if they

explode it wouldn't be shocking at all i think we could all win um it gives be a close game and uh the team total can come in and the under can come in as well. Probably in a Miami win. That's definitely happening, I would think. All right, next great game. Kansas City in Cincinnati. This is obviously a rematch of a couple of games last year.

There are one-and-a-halves, twos, two-and-a-halves, all on the Kansas City side. Total up there, 52-and-a-5, 53 up on DraftKings. Again, we had a memorable late regular season matchup, and then obviously the Bengals winning in the AFC Championship game. They come in off of a big road win in Tennessee. We talked about that last week. Their schedule is brutal.

They kind of needed that one to keep the ball rolling here. They get Jamar Chase back as well. As we know, they went 3-1 without him, which I think is critical for their playoff chances moving forward. Chiefs played with their food a little bit last week, and I think that if you're ever going to do that, it was that iteration of the Rams. If you're going to just kind of sleepwalk through a Sunday afternoon,

that was the time to do so. They are much sharper here against the Bengals, and I expect Mahomes to be dialed in. Connor, what are your thoughts on this matchup? Yeah, I mean, they should have beat the Rams by like 40. Like, what a joke. I mean, that's another game that we don't need to talk about with Bryce Perkins, but I mean, my God. I think the key for the Bengals defense last week, we talked about a little bit. So DJ Reader played 74% of the snaps after playing, I believe it was 60% the week before in his first game back. He's helped stop Derek Henry to only 38 yards and 17 carries.

Now I expect Kansas City, like we saw earlier in the season, to like literally not run the ball, basically like at all. And I think that they go extremely pass heavy here. And I think the Bengals probably follow suit

with Jamar Chase back. We've talked about it multiple times on the show, but the first few weeks of the season, they played a ton of, they played under center a bunch. They ran the ball a bunch. They were like middle of the pack to low end and pass it over expectation.

They ended up shifting then before Jamar Chase got injured for four weeks to one of the highest rates of shotgun and one of the highest rates of pass it over expectation. Without Jamar Chase, they're kind of in the middle. They're doing like 80% around there under center, pass it over expectation was still above average, but you know elite and so i think that with jamar chase back they you know they kind of bring that back and i think that um they probably have success here you know i think a lot of that depends on you know jamar chase's health but i'm not sold in this kansas city defense and i think that this game could be pretty fun uh i i would i don't i don't i don't really have too much to take on the side or total but i think that i I'd probably lean Kansas City at minus one and a half.

I'd draft Kings minus two and a half at FanDuel. I think below the three is probably a little too short. What do you got, JD? It's hard not to be high on the Bengals in the spot, honestly. The Chiefs allowing the third highest passing touchdown percentage in the league and remaining the only defense permitting a touchdown rate inside the red zone over 70% of those possessions and the bingles are one of only three offices in the entire league

scoring a touchdown on at least 71% of their red zone possessions so it's like the perfect cocktail of the bingles blowing up here but at the same time it's it's another common foe and remember like the bingles only beat the chiefs in the postseason their last matchup because they had an inexplicable miraculous second half they averaged less than three yards for play and were down by three scores at halftime last year in that uh divisional matchup so no conference championship so overall yeah yeah i still somewhat worry but given everything we've seen even in joe burrow holding on onto the ball longer, if Chase were to return, since he waits for more downfield plays and thus takes more sacks in that

instance, we saw the past two games, he's getting rid of the ball significantly quicker. Um, I still do think it's a great spot for the Bengals. So I genuinely don't have a lean. This is the first time I'm going to say this on the show. I don't have a bet at all in this game. I'm just, I'm curious to see both these teams play against what I think are fair opponents, especially because it hasn't been the toughest run for the Chiefs, I understand, but they have played a pass rush, an elite pass rush against the Titans, a common foe in the Chargers who know how to play them well. And even then, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for at least 320 yards

in six consecutive games. Like, Mahomes is thrown for at least 320 yards in six consecutive games like Mahomes there is no defense you can name man you can name two eye safety blitzes it doesn't matter there isn't a defense that can stop this Chiefs offense right now it's definitely because Patrick Mahomes has dealt with more injuries to his rod receiver room in the last month than any other defense so yeah I just don't I want to lean more towards a you know I'm not going to bet the under on a 53 but like I don't I genuinely don't have a good feel for what's going to happen here yeah I don't have anything either I think it's just going to be a great game it's a great late window to get to San Fran uh in Miami game and in Kansas City Cincinnati there as well just just

good football late in the day to to put a cap on a Sunday. It's going to be good football. Yeah, I don't have anything there. Stay away. It's one of those games that if you wanted to build a crazy leg, same game parlay with some of this action offensively, probably going to be popular, like Tegel said, in DFS. Do the same game parlay and pivot somewhere else in DFS, not playing the overs here into a ton of ownership but uh what else you guys have on the board that you like that you want to shout out before we wrap up uh connor start with you is there anything that you like that we didn't touch on uh i thought that pittsburgh here is an interesting spot against atlanta i thought that they kind of matched up really well uh now i mean only my

one and a half point favorites i think that they i mean matched up really well uh now I mean only my one and a half point favorites I think that they I mean at this point are a significantly better team with Watt and Minka back I mean they're I wouldn't say like so it's interesting because I'm watching them like I wouldn't say they're necessarily consistent on a play-to-play basis but they with those guys in the lineup like they make they just make plays you know Watt comes up with the sack Minka comes up with a tip pass like like those things like matter in the long run into like creating like chaos here. And I think that this, uh, eighth and run defense DVO way right now as well, which, you know, kind of feeds into being able to slow down, you know, basically the only thing

that Atlanta can do right now. Uh, and offensively, I don't think necessarily Kenny Pickett has been, uh, good, but I just don't really think it really matters. Like he's so many talented, you know, playmakers around him that he's able to get the ball to them and let them, you know, do something. So I think that getting them under a field goal here, I think that it's a solid look. They're a terrific teaser leg. There's a few of them on the board, in my opinion, this week. Because like you said, you can tease their one and a half.

You can tease them, you know, through the three and through the seven. I think Baltimore applies there too. Low eight and a half. You tease them down through the three and through the seven. I think Baltimore applies there too. Low at eight and a half, you tease them down through the seven and through the three. And then I also think that the Seattle Seahawks, again, seven and a half, you could tease them through the seven, through the three to win against the Rams

who will be playing, who knows, a quarterback without Aaron Donald. They're very much, again, they're not like tanking from like a draft pick standpoint because they don't have any but they are definitely rolling out uh you know pre-season type squat so the joke um again low total games that you can move through the three and seven there's a handful of them on the board that's sharp there's something that i do want to ask you guys though about the bears packers game so i know the spread is it was like four uh before with like i know justin fields is we have no idea. We have Aaron Rodgers who says he's going to play, but he's kind of

hurt. I mean, to me, it seemed light, like with Aaron Rodgers in and Justin Fields in, I mean, I'd probably have the Packers of like six point favorites. If Justin Fields doesn't play, the Packers should be like 10 point favorites. I mean, like, I know the Packers offense hasn't been good, but like anyone can be good against this Bears defense. Like, I don't know. I just saw that and was like, man, like I don't even like the Packers. I just think this is short. So the to add to that, the Bears since week eight,

34 and a half points per game, six and a half yards per play. Whether it's Jordan Love or Aaron Rodgersgers they're going to have success against chicago right and like jordan love i mean he's a pretty decent sample of being bad in the preseason but like he looked good last week i don't know you know like dude i got my worst investment ever in the pandemic was was was two not one two for too many digits. I'm not going to say the number. Too many digits, though. Rookie PSA 10 Mint Hologram Panini Jordan Love Rookie Cards. And, like, they're not, like, they're, I think the orange is, like, one of ten.

Like, they're not, like, a random hologram. I went for the Elite Jordan Love Rookie Cards thinking Aaron Rodgers was going to retire. And then Aaron Rodgers did not retire. And the one time we went to Noonan's last year to watch football, Jordan Love played Steve Spagnuolo and he blitzed his fucking face off. And it was a disaster. But I did see those two possessions last night against the Eagles. And Jordan Love looked amazing on those two possessions.

So there's hope. He looks great. Fingers crossed. I mean, dude, you roll them out here. Jordan Love Panini holograms are my Silva 101 Jamal Williams bet. Like one time. One time. Pump your bags, man.

Let's get those. Yeah, I agree. I mean, we're going to have no Eddie Jackson again. I don't know what Jaquan Brisker's situation is. I think he's questionable. It's a rough, rough unit so gonna be an interesting week of football fellas but but if fields plays i like the over because again even with a hurt shoulder uh that offense is completely different as what we saw with trevor simeon and

again they the eagles ran for 360 yards like they're gonna design runs for fields so i do like the over if fields plays it's hilarious because, you watch him and like, they're, they're talking about like, Oh, like take less hits. Like this dude is lowering his shoulder, like through guys. Like he feels is just like a gamer,

you know, he just, he just goes out there. He can take kids. He's big too. That's fine. Yeah. Like people,

a big Daniel Jones ends as well. Like they could take kids. It's fine. Lamar Lamar is the one who actually needs to get the hell out of bounds. And he never does. Yeah. I think it's like, you know,

maybe 10, 10 ish carries a game. Like kind of like know a little more than josh allen is good but like when you're getting like 18 carries a game and plus you're getting sacked like oh god i mean you're just you're screwed like i mentioned with barkley we're also we see this every year at the time of the year where these these players like reach their thresholds and they hit the walls like genuinely because they've never seen these touch counts before. And now they're hitting the winter months as well. They just wind down, man.

We see this with individuals every single year. So we'll see if the little break helps for Fields. Yeah, Fields needs a little bit of that Tyler Lockett in his game where Lockett just catches the ball and rolls down right away. Just get out there and fall. It's going to be interesting because I don't want that number yeah see extend the career bonus points of uh you know getting concussed but again like the packers play a lot of man the packers blitz a ton um and you know that's kind of what we've been attacking for quarterback rushing overs

and we're gonna have fields coming off of shoulder injury so i'm i'm not sure how to approach that if we get it, but yeah, be interested to have that when we, when we have it this week. Again, four for four.com slash plans, promo code next level gets you an additional 25% off of the already 50% discounts.

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