Move The Line - NFL Week 11 PROPS | Top Prop Bets, Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: November 19, 2022

NFL Week 11 Props to bet with Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo. The trio share their top Week 11 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps:0:00 Intro3:49 Timestamp Connor Prop Bet #1 5:11 Pat Prop Bet #1  8:11 Ryan Prop Bet #1 12:03 Connor Prop Bet #2 15:03 Pat Prop Bet #2 16:31 Ryan Prop Bet #218:50 Connor Prop Bet #3 20:50 Pat Prop Bet #324:07 Ryan Prop Bet #327:53 Connor Prop Bets #4 & #530:26 Pat’s Final Props 35:16 Ryan’s Final Props36:52 Tackle Props40:24 Audience Q+A57:01 Outro Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, the drop show. Ryan Noonan back with my friends to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football. And that is Player Props live here, 2 p.m. Eastern, every Friday, giving you our favorite player props and taking your questions. So if you are hanging out with us now on YouTube, in the chat, subscribe so you don't miss a show. We appreciate that. Smash the like button. Make sure you get notifications for all the other great content going on here on the 444 YouTube page. And again, jump in and let us know what your favorite prop is for week 11. A little slow release this week. So we are with you, struggling to kind of find,

we typically have a little bit more at this point. They're a little slow to release, but that's okay. Still enough content to talk about and a fun week. Connor, joining me as always. How you doing? Good. Freezing my ass off over here and it's not even that cold yet, which is scary. I don't think we get to complain about that typically because I think it's always going to be a little bit colder for our friend here up north and of course, the man from the Mayo Media Network and the Pat Mayo Experience. Pat Mayo, how we doing? I'm quite sure the average temperature for between the months of, I don't know, November and April is probably much colder for you

than it is for me. So I wouldn't just, I mean, I get that Americans don't know anything, but this is something you don't know. It's fair. There's a lot of things I don't know. Ask Sal. You know, Sal is from up north too. So ask him if it's as cold where he is,

as it were, as you guys are. Why don't he sell? I don't know how far it sells a little further North than you are. Isn't he? I'm not quite sure where you guys are. Those things are always interesting. It's like they'll do like the Europe stuff.

I guess, you know, Paris is further North in Chicago and all sorts of stuff like that blows our minds. You know, simple Americans can't get, you know, see past our nos noses but uh i mean you're further north than i am so i'd imagine that you'd be a little bit colder but hey we'll speak out of turn yeah i don't live on the uh the the bottom of a really polluted lake so it's fair we do we definitely do um yeah like you said

a little slow week but we're excited to get into it. We're going to share our props before we do. I want to remind folks that we do have two episodes of Move the Line each week, both available to stream here on YouTube, also available in podcast form wherever you consume those podcasts. In addition to the prop drop here, game previews are now moving to Wednesday nights, Thanksgiving next week and all that's going on stateside. So we are shifting 6.30 Eastern on Wednesdays, talking about our favorite games of the week,

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and you'll be ready to go and get started for 2023. So again, these are all live lines, doing our best to make sure that you can match us as far as price and all those different things. But again, limited slate. But Connor, let's get started with your first play for week 11. Yeah, I didn't think that I would ever take an over on the Bears, but I like Darnell Mooney to go over his receiving yards this week.

It's only a 43 and a half. He has 43 or more receiving yards in seven straight games, 50 or more in six of the past seven. And recently we kind of look at who the Bears have played against. Played against a ton of teams who are like blitz heavy, use a bunch of man coverage, like Detroit, Miami,

Dallas, which has forced Justin fields to scramble a ton. And the Falcons are almost like the exact opposite of this team. You know, they don't blitz, they play a lot of zone and they're really bad past events. Like one of the worst in the league. So if you're thinking about that,

like Justin Fields should have more time to throw. And I think the Darnell Mooney, and I think that that kind of forces them to throw a little bit more. We saw against New England as well. Like they use like kind of that mush rush and they like sat back a little bit more and, you know, he ended up performing pretty well. So, you know, I think in this spot here, Mooney gets over the number. And I think Chase Claypool obviously some bit of a factor, but only 19 snaps last week, 32% didn't make a massive difference there. And even if he does take a step forward,

I think there's still enough kind of like meat on the bone here for Mooney to get a well over this number. Receiving yards over prop tied to a bears offense that we've been showing. I get it. We are in week 11. That's for sure. Pat, do you have any thoughts on bears passing game Darnell Mooney in particular?

I don't because my number one prop is actually from the same game, from the same offense, and it's another over. Okay. I like David Montgomery over 61.5 rushing yards. Seems low to me with no Khalil Herbert around. Obviously that Justin Fields is going to end up getting his, regardless of how maybe he rushes five times, maybe he rushes 15 times, but I think you can probably lock in David Montgomery for 15 rushes in this

game. And unless he somehow gets hurt, like he did in an excellent opportunity in an excellent spot against Houston a few weeks back, but I'm not really sweating Tristan Ebner to come in and really take a big piece of this pie in the rushing backfield. I haven't projected that around 90. Now that might be a bit optimistic but if he truly is the 75 25 lead of the running backs in the bears offense

against this falcons defense like 60 61 and a half feels like nothing it does feels like a good week for him i don't think emner comes in and takes what we would see from cleo herbert's connor any thoughts on uh on the monty No, I was actually looking at this as well. I just couldn't get myself to bet two Bears overs. I mean, it just fell too much. But I mean, the rushing receiving, I haven't seen that pop yet, but they're all floating as receiving yards only at 10 as well. So, you know, they like to get them sometimes involved in some screens here and there, you know, some dump offs occasionally. I know he doesn't dump off a ton, but we have like, you know, I don't know, high teams projected for David Montgomery on the

receiving yards. It's only like 10. Now it's not something that would the ton, but we have like, you know, I don't know, high teams projected for David Montgomery on the receiving yards. It's only like 10. Now it's not something that would play alone, but I do think that Pat said, I think he's going to see that almost all the work, like we even saw with Herbert, like he was starting to see the majority of the work in some instances as well. So yeah, I think the over there, it's a good look. Yeah. It's just kind of how much I'm willing to tolerate bears overs there.

But I think the reason this led me to this is, I mean, what do you think about the rushing yards there? Because it is open at 71 and a half, just an insane number for a quarterback. And I, I just don't have the stomach to take the under on that because I do think that he probably ends up somewhere in the fifties to sixties, but like, I don't want to sweat that.

I mean, that is sounds horrible. Same. I mean, it's a bell that I've rung a bunch, but a lot of times, and actually kind of ties into my my first prop here as well the reasoning behind it i think doesn't necessarily apply here part

of the success i think for fields we know that there's been a philosophy shift right we've seen a spike in you know design rushes so it hasn't just been like the pocket breaking stuff and scrambling stuff it's also come against a handful of teams that do things in a similar way they play a lot of man and they blitz a lot and that is not the falcons style i do understand you're getting them on a fast track and all those things and it's a bad rush defense overall so he probably does flirt with it just off of the design runs but yeah now that we are like out of the high 40s and then like the mid 50s we're all the way up to 71 that's a tall task i think our projection is way too low on it because we're still stuck in like the mid 40s

i think him not getting up into like the mid 50s is a mistake but yeah it's not a chase over for me uh as far as what he does and again it's a good spot still it just isn't like them i like the man and the blitz piece and that's why my first prop first prop is Daniel Jones over 34 and a half rushing yards. It is currently 33 and a half at DraftKings Sportsbook because this was my second one. Perfect. Love it. It's confirmation bias. And again, the Lions play man at the 10th highest rate.

They blitz at the fifth highest, 33% of snaps against them. They blitz at the fifth highest, 33% of snaps against them. They blitz. And these two components have been a really profitable recipe for rushing overs so far this season. And Jones is a willing runner as well. We know that they'll do some design stuff with him too. He has at least five attempts in every game of the season. And Detroit is averaging or allowing the second highest per game rate to rushing quarterbacks this season, 41.3 yards.

So, yeah, if it's dropped a little bit, even 33 and a half at DraftKings, absolutely love it because it's readily available out there, MGM, Caesars. So, yeah, Danny Jones is in a good spot to do it. Can't chase the field stuff, though. No, yeah, I get that. I think it's a good look here. How has he been? I didn't look at his kind of recent outings.

I think the matchup is fantastic. But, like, how has he been relative to that number i guess recently i just don't know off the top of my head yeah uh the attempts have been there but i don't think he's uh they again he's popped in a big big way when we've seen these other spots remember the bears one we hit successfully um let me take a look here real quick. There was another early one. He's been under this number in three of the past four, but he had hit it in his, what was it? Five of, even if you include the three of the four, he had hit it in three in a row before that as well. So I just,

it feels like he's going to get like six to eight attempts in this game. That feels good for me. Yeah. That's the thing. Like the last week, five attempts, first Houston was a season low. But again, Houston sits back in zone a lot and that's not what the Lions do and that kind of forces his hand. Just a couple weeks ago 11 for 107 against Jacksonville. We know how he did against the Bears in a big way, 68 yards there. Green Bay blitzes a ton. He had 10 attempts in that one and went over this mark. So again, it fits

more so than how he's been doing. It's just really more matchup based. So yeah, Danny Jones is a comfortable one. I like it quite a bit. This would be theoretically a points bet opportunity if they weren't chicken and they posted those things again, like they used to do. Remember we've cashed on Danny Jones rushing before too. And you, again, the points bet play is Connor. You can explain it if folks don't know points betting and how it actually works. They are very limited in what they post nowadays, but you can tell people about that if they happen to have points bet. Yeah. Points bet is actually legal in a bunch of states. So it's, it's an opportunity. It's

kind of like I would describe it as like options for sports betting. So if you bet Daniel Jones over 34 rushing yards for every rushing yard. He gets over 34. You win your stake. So if you bet 10 bucks and he ends up with, you know, 35 rushing yards, you win 10 bucks. But if he ends up with, you know, 50 rushing yards, you end up with 16 times 10. Uh, and, but the catch is that if he ends up with zero, you lose whatever times your stake. So if he ends up with zero rushing yards, gets injured in the first play, you're out 340 bucks on your $10 wager. So again, this, I have lost, I've lost my ass on this, but I've also won an unbelievable amount on the other side too. So you just gotta be careful. We tend to stick towards things that are low risk. Like 34 X is pretty low risk. Like you don't want to bet

it over on, you know, a Cooper cup at 115. know what i mean yes real fast yeah yeah i do think we've had i think the best way to do it actually is i would say rushing quarterback when you're in this like 30 pocket um otherwise it starts to get really dangerous because then you if like if you want to bet like receptions there's just not enough bang for your buck in a lot of instances to do so uh maybe there is i know Pat had a nice ladder on a reception prop. That's another guy on the board this week. Maybe we come back to it, but you know,

there are different, it's not just a crappy book that takes low limits. Occasionally they actually offer a points bet. So Connor, back to you for pick number two. Yeah, I'm going to go with a, a bad quarterback under here.

I like Matt Ryan under 228 and at passing yards. The Eagles have held every single quarterback under their passing prop so far this season and eight of nine quarterbacks under this specific number. The Eagles, I mean, since the loss of Jordan Davis to become kind of a run funnel there, they signed Linval Joseph. They signed Domkin Sue, which I mean, I know I think Newton is a little bit more bullish than I am on how quickly of an impact they make. But I do think that they matter a little bit, but not enough to kind of persuade the Colts there to get away from running

the ball a bunch. So I think that they try and go run heavy and they don't, they don't have very much success through the air when they do pass against the Eagles past events, number one in past events, DVOA right now. So yeah, I like this under here,

even though probably going to be a little sweaty and things can get out of hand quickly. If you know, Ryan has to throw the ball 50 times, but it just didn't seem like that was their goal last game with jeff saturday and i think that coming to this matchup it would take the eagles scoring like 20 real quick uh you know i think for them to get into that mode like a read right away yeah if you're going to skew run heavy against the raiders team who makes it very, very easy for you to pass against them.

You're going to skew running heavy against the Eagles who make it very difficult. That's actually one thing that they do really well, both from an efficiency standpoint. They also get good pressure on the quarterback. And yeah, I think that they lean Jonathan Taylor heavily here. And again, regardless of what happens with implementing the defensive ends or defensive tackles that the Eagles have signed, I think it's going to be a pretty high volume game for Taylor. Pat, any thoughts on that matchup and what's going on with the Eagles? I just worry because I've seen this Matt Ryan number get out of hand a few times. And I agree

with everything that Connor said. It's a run funnel. I think that Jeff Saturday wants to run the ball as much as possible but we've just seen some of these colts game go completely off script and all of a sudden matt ryan is chucking it 60 times in the game you're like oh great this is fantastic he threw 400 yards again my projections have him right on this number so it's a stay away from me on either side it's you're just paying the vig with this coin toss uh but i get the numbers will suggest one thing in terms of simulations and projections but logic will almost dictate the opposite and i think that's where connor is going so i would side with connor but it won't get my money that's fair yeah

i remember the game was the uh jacksonville game when they like it was like the deon jackson game it's like what the hell happened here i know i't think we played it, but I think we were considering attempts under. You would have been buried. Yeah, we lost in the first half, I remember. We were looking at that number for a while and then decided not to play it. That would have been a quick, painful L.

Pat, back to you. Number two. Can I take the same one as you? Because that's one that I had written down as number two. no rules this week we have there's less on the board so um i can shift off of it but i did want to say i like the daniel jones over 33 and a half you hit on the guy that i wanted to talk about is jacoby myers uh i just again think this jets defense is going to be set up to be taken advantage of by jacoby myers He's not going to run outside of the hash marks. He's going to run just slants over the middle the entire time.

The reception prop is pretty high. So I actually like the yardage of 48 and a half. Probably going to have six catches at least in this game. So you'd have to have a pretty, I know his ADOT is low, but that had to be a pretty low ADOT to end up with six catches and under 50 yards, which is what you'd be looking at. So I can see him going like seven for 65 in this game, and you know what?

That's good enough to smash this number. Yeah, he tried to do it last game that they played where he caught like nine balls for just 60 yards, which is impressively bad. So are you seeing a receptions line here? I didn't see the receptions i just saw the receiving yards yeah so i like 40 and a half too i'm waiting to see what the reception line is because i don't think that the 40 and a half is going to go away like i don't

think it gets to like and i'd probably play it to like low 50s to be honest um but i think we're going to get like four and a half and even five and a half in the spot because the Jets perimeter corners are really good. Slot Michael Carter, the other Michael Carter, not. And that's kind of why it was a play for Pat and I last time. And I think it's a good place to go back to. So yeah, no problem with that. I'm going to wait for the Jacoby receptions. So number two for me, it is moved a little bit.

I played it in our Discord for subscribers yesterday at 73.5. CeeDee Lamb, over 77.5 receiving yards is the number now. I still just, I like it. I think it's probably anywhere below 80 is probably still in play, to be honest. Just a great individual matchup for CeeDee. Fifth in the league in slot targets this season, and third in yards per outrun from the slot and Minnesota has really struggled covering really good prolific slot

receivers this season um Shannon Sullivan is the uh perpetrator he will be covering the slot here often in 92 coverage rate in the slot last week against the the bills and uh stefan digs and uh got torched minnesota is actually allowing the most yak versus slot this season as well 101 more yards the next closest team um they're getting absolutely torched and we saw last week really big involvement for cd lamb actually career high in targets and receptions i think even kind of regressing back to a norm for CeeDee Lamb is fine here. We have projected for just shy of seven balls and 90 yards. So yeah, I think he's a big, big part of why the Cowboys go into Minnesota and win this week. So Pat, how about you? Any thoughts on CeeDee Lamb in this pretty interesting game? Yes, I think, I mean, my numbers actually

point to the under for CeeDee Lamb in this spot. I actually have another Dallas over that I like, which is my number three pick. So I'll save that for when it gets to me. Perfect. Connor, any thoughts on CeeDee? I know this isn't your ball. You typically get into the, you know, alpha receiver streets when we're chasing big, big numbers like this. But any spots in the matchup? I know you like Dallas here.

Yeah, no, I think that you can, you know, you can definitely hit some alts here as well. I think that it's very much in play here. It's also interesting to against zone coverage. Lam is a 31.2% target share. It's like third most in the league. So, you know, should see a ton of targets here. And I think that while Dak has actually struggled against zone coverage, you know, at least this season, you know, I think that it's still a great spot here. And I do think that the Dallas wins and has plenty of success. As you mentioned too, I think Vikings dead last and explosive pass rate allowed. So really all you need is like one chunk gain here and you're cooking.

Yeah, for sure. All right, Connor, back to you. Number three. Yeah. My third one is another under Najee Harris. I took under 51. It's a 47. I'm still fine with it there.

So he saw 20 carries last week, but he only out carried Jalen Warren 20 to 14. So 58% of the carries. And now he draws a tough match against the Bengals defense who get back DJ reader this week, which is a pretty big deal for them. I think, you know,

they have some massive splits as noon and alluded to on our move, the line show previously that they're, you know, one of the top teams in EPA against the run with DJ Reader. Without him, they're just getting absolutely cooked up there. Week one, saw Najee had just 23 rushing yards on 10 carries. I really think that this is, I mean, even if he gets the volume, even if he ends up with like 12 to 15 carries, which is certainly possible, there's still a good chance he goes under. And I think there's also another chance that he doesn't even see that kind of volume because of just game script or,

you know, how this game goes. And I think there's just a lot of ways that this can go right for me here on the under. Yeah. I mean, it was son of a bitch burned us last week. I mean, a lot of sense where you have like, you had all the coach speak about like, Hey, you know, we were watching the film and it's pretty clear about, you know, role shifts and he just comes out and like literally his career high rushing attempts last week and he got hurt at one point in the game yeah i mean it was

over in the second quarter because he had like a 25 yard run and that was it it was like he literally his career high run uh and then kind of buried us but yeah he kind of like bounced off of a few guys it wasn't even like good movement he's like like you know they just like fell off of him i don't know it was very strange no problem going back to the well i'm considering something else that didn't work last week going back to it too so you know we have to be able to be forward thinking look at the next matchup and you know process was right so um i'm not tailing it but i understand why you go back to it i think the dj reader splits are sizable and kind of worth noting so all right we're about halfway home gonna kick it back to Mayo for his third.

If you're hanging out with us in the chat, let us know. What are you considering for week 11? Anything that you're looking for? Want to get our thoughts on? We'll get to as many as we can at the end of the show. All right, Pat, number three. It's that Dallas prop. I like Dalton Schultz over 41 and a half receiving yards.

You mentioned the slot. Obviously, Dalton Schultz is going to be operating out of there as well against the Minnesota Vikings. And since Dak has come back, he is the closest he's got to this number of 41 and a half is 49 yards he's been well above it two of those three weeks so it's funny because Dak under was my favorite prop last week outside of the Kalief Raymond one which got dropped late and Dak was under until overtime so you always have to fade overtime with these unders. That always sucks.

But, like, I'm seeing the – because it's so concentrated in that offense, right? You could get Schultz over. You could get Lamb over and still get Dak under his 250-and-a-half passing yards as well. Like, once again, I haven't projected, like, 229. And that's – I think he was, like, 219 going into overtime last week. And the prop was 250 again, like outside of crazy circumstances, Dak is staying below these,

but you, you all, you call the Eagles defense right now, a run funnel. Like this is just a funnel offense or the passing game in Dallas. It's all am it's all Schultz and nobody else. Yeah. I like it.

We hit Schultz last week, Connor, any thoughts on going back to the wall there? I was waiting for a reception prop. I kind of like the Jacoby one to see what was better because he's just seeing a ton of targets. Minnesota allowing a 72.7% catch rate to opposing tight ends, eight yards per target.

And like, he's getting targeted on 27% of Dak Prescott's dropbacks right now, or his routes run. So it's a pretty, pretty impressive splits there. And I think that the over 41 is fine. Like, don't get get me wrong i looked at that and was like oh that's that's still good we have him in the 50s i believe and that's still probably too low um but i was hoping to maybe get like a four and a half reception point uh and i thought that would be just as good

yeah you'd want yeah hold on hold on you want four and a half you think it'd be four and a half receptions yeah a little plus money on the four and a half i don't know i i i'm a simp for plus money that's though as you can tell on some of these with the alts and uh you know the overs and the receptions i like it what do you think i knew if we see a three and a half i mean that's like uh that's like a three unit play i feel like that's that's wild juju was just ruled out i I see. Yeah. Canary's somebody props? Yeah. Juju out. Hardman on IR.

It'll be interesting to see what happens there. Get some hunky Tony in your life? Yeah. I mean, I'm already – the best ball bags are already spent because of Canary's Tony. So, like, I don't know that I need to chase anymore. He just needs to kind of catch up and see if he can salvage a couple of teams here but yeah it'll be interesting it'll be fun to watch he's we talked about him at length last night he's just he really is kind of special when

he has the ball in his hands there's a lot going on and uh yeah i think you get in that environment you know no adults in the room with new york you come there pat mahomes andy reed you just have a little bit more of a you got to get in line. We've seen it. I think the example I used last night was like New England often. We had, remember Randy Moss went to the Raiders and he was left for dead. Comes into England and all of a sudden revives his career, breaks all the records. Corey Dillon, same example. Like you get to a different spot. I think Canaries Tony maybe has to stand up a little bit taller and kind of get in line and do those things. And and i you know

maybe selfie right now no hamstrings issues probably pretty good this week so all right what i probably i'll save that one we'll get to your thoughts at the end i i'm probably going to hit pat fryer muth uh over 44 and a half receiving yards uh i think we saw well basically he's had two of the hardest matchups in the last couple of weeks. Last week against the Saints, which is by far, Saints are looking at like DVOA against position, by far the best team in the league against tight ends. And excuse me, ton of targets, but didn't quite get there. A little bit short, but then 90% route participation last week.

Like that's elite receiver stuff and ran a lot from the slot. So he massively benefited from Chase claypool moving on and i think to connor's point they maybe run a little bit less because they don't think they're gonna have as much success and he becomes really that secondary passing option in that offense so 44 and a half he caught i think five on 10 targets and 75 yards the first time these teams met i think it's just 44 and a half is a little bit low. We get again, getting close in bad matchups and then crushing this in really good matchups since Kenny Pickett's been involved. So a Friday move readily available out there,

44 and a half. I'm probably hitting that. I have not yet Connor, any initial thoughts on, on the move? The Schultz Schultz and fire with the two that I've written down is like, wait for receptions, evaluate from there because I love both the overs.

I think that it's just like very clear that when they're playing with their quarterback that they've been playing with, like they're just crushing. And that's something that I don't really think is factored into the market. I agree. Pat, any thoughts on Fryermuth? I like it. And I think you kind of hit it on it, especially after last week's matchup with the Saints,

that just very difficult matchups in his past two games. And this one against the Bengals should not be that difficult. The other one too, before real quick, I know Pat had it last week. I ended up playing it as well is Greg Dolch. And he like airballed in a massive way last week, but the usage is all there. Like everything was there. 82% route participation, really tough matchup in hindsight against the Titans. The Raiders are the worst team in the league past defense wise and dead last

in DV away covering tight ends. Now you've got a full game without Jerry Judy. Has he been ruled out yet? Jerry Judy. I don't think so. He's going to be though, isn't he? I think that he's going to be too,

but I, it feels like he's trying to play. Yeah. So again, it's down last week. it was a play at 40 it's down to like 36 and a half um but again i get it like it was he caught like one pass he catching like a negative he got like a tip ball at the very end of the game made it even worse like he went negative on the last play so i get why people will be reluctant i imagine if i posted

for subscribers people will be very reluctant to tail the Greg Dulwich stuff again. But I don't know. It's just a way better spot at home. Fewer target competition. I don't know. Connor, any thoughts on Dulwich? I'm into it.

I just didn't. Yeah, I don't know. One of the two. I'm into it. I think that this is a great balance back spot for him. I almost think that you could get wild with it. Like his usage is insane. Like you've been saying saying and i just didn't know the match was like that good i know the raiders are i guess it's fair to assume the raiders are bad at pretty much

everything but uh you know i feel like particularly here like he should see a ton of work and if judy's out i mean we have to play the over 36 and a half is nothing all right let's go back to that sorry subs uh i had i had it written down too if that quells your fear a little bit yeah no i thought you might because i mean i thought your reasoning was sound last week um more i looked at it after the show i'm like yeah you know what i'm gonna shut up pat and i'm gonna play that as well i think it's a good look and yeah all the things are there we have to be sometimes you just can't be result-oriented you have to look at like all right he's on the field he's running routes like there's less target competition all those things we got to go back to the well so all right

number four connor last one what are the ones you're considering yeah i don't have a number number four but i do have one that just popped or two that just popped that i want to talk to you guys about here um nick chubb 74 and a half rushing yards against buffalo uh in the dome probably going to focus on on the running game here against Buffalo. Seems a little light. I don't know. I mean, we have like nearly 90 projected, Pat. I don't know where you guys are at, but I thought that I thought it was gonna be like 80.

In terms of like where how many yards do I have him projected for? Yeah, rushing yards. I have him for 87. Okay. And that's on 17 carries. Yeah, I guess the only worry is just that if they get like massively dunked on quick, then they just can't end the ball off to him, you know?

But I don't know. I think the over, it's still low enough. That's still worth potentially a look. And then another one that I was interested in Terry McLaurin, it looks like Derek Stingley might miss as well. Not that I'm not even really sure how that much that even mattered, but so only 60 receiving yards. I've been seeing a ton of work from heineke

uh i don't know i mean it's another receiver pairing with a bad quarterback i'm not sure how often i've ever done this in my life but uh any thoughts there noonan on that one he's on the list yeah i like it anyway just because he's been really the target shares since heineke has been in there um the only problem is is they skewed fairly run heavy the last couple of weeks again obviously it worked in a big big way and i think it was matchup specific but even so like he caught what like six on 86 like the first half last week he was very involved when they did pass so uh it's a good matchup i don't know how much stingley matters yet he does shadow um and like the alternatives are like stephen nelson like it's not good um yeah who

i think is one of the lead singers of nelson so like i don't i don't think that uh that's a bad thing so yeah what's 59 and a half 60 is mcclure's number yeah we're looking at like 60 and a half now at this point. Yeah, I have him just below that, by the way, in terms of projection. Although his catch rate is currently baked in with like a split between Wentz and Heineke based on the historic catch rate of the season. I feel like it's much higher with Heineke. Yeah, no, it's a good call. I looked at that and we're like way high on him too.

I don't know what it is. I don't have it right in front of me. But like, I think we, again again mid 70s or something like that i thought we were just a little too high but uh yeah i can get there for sure um and again when whenever you're on like a elite receiver over like that i feel like you should probably pay attention to that um all right pat uh last few that are on your list or whatever you're looking at here okay so i i have it kind of i mean dulcic was on there but i'll cross that one off because you have gone to the well with last few that are on your list or whatever you're looking at here. Okay, so I have it kind of, I mean, Dulcich was on there, but I'll cross that one off because you have gone to the well

with that, I think. Yeah, I think you went to the well with that. Yeah, I'm going to, I think, yeah. So I had a few, I had one, two, three, four, actually, I wanted to talk about. One is Devante Adams in the under of 75 and a half. He's sick, apparently, again, and he gets Sertained,

which does not seem like a very valuable situation to have davante adams in that's a pretty high number it's one of the highest i kind of like that one cordero patterson over 44 and a half rushing yards he has one bad week and everyone's like oh no thank you he's playing the bears like come on here even if he's like the second man up in that offense in terms of rushing he's probably still going to get like 12 or so carries so i like that one and for c pat like that could be one rush he's that type of runner so i always like to see when you get the uh the deflated lines on players like this in a really nice matchup garrett wilson uh with cory davis out uh over 53 and i wrote down 53.3 but i guess you can just make it 50 53.5 point whatever as long as it's not a zero

or a five at the end or a zero at the end of it and it's all the same thing so i like that number as well but the one i really wanted to talk about don't the foreman under 50 and a half rushing yards if the ravens just get up in this game and we saw this against the Bengals anytime that the Panthers are not within a score he is just not on the field yeah I mean he has I think made a solidified the role a little bit more than we thought maybe with uh with you know Chuba Hubbard but like they're not handing in the ball for sure I think the offense overall efficiency wise plummets with Baker in the lineup so yeah I mean it's very easy to tell yourself a story where Baltimore gets out early here and you're banking on a random explosive run

from Deontay Foreman. So Connor, any thoughts on that? I was hoping to get a little bit of a higher number because I was like, oh, this is going to be a great under because there's just so many outs on the under here. And I still think there is. Yeah, I mean, I still think there is. But then you're basically just betting on the,

the Ravens to get out like a 10 point lead here within the first like half, you know, essentially, which I think is fair. It's like what? 13 point favorites, 12 point favorites at this point. Um,

so yeah, I think the under, under the strong look there, I liked the quarter. I'll Patterson won a lot. I was looking at that because I mean, he came back from injury and then it was a short week, right?

It was a Thursday. So it's like, yeah, they probably weren't just gonna, you know, run him again a bunch. So it kind of makes sense that they're probably gonna even that back out with him and tyler algier uh and as long as he's feeling all right uh i think c-pat and algier we have him 12 for 59 so you know pretty comfortably over that yeah good

luck stare patterson is the one i'm going with officially yeah i like to see pat look i'll get that down into a little bit more. Communal play. Nice DraftKings play too this week. I mean, potential for absolute busto, but he's right in between all of the popular options. And that team total is really high. I know Daigle was talking about that.

I do think a new show, I think probably on our YouTube channel, debuted today with Sharp Clark and Daigle talking about... Well, hold on, hold on. Is the guy's name sharp clark his name is his last name is clark he goes by sharp clark so is he like warren sharp is everyone just like fake putting sharp into their name like i can see that i think so apparently yeah yeah because that's also not warren's name either so yeah that's why that's what i mean like just put sharp in your name i mean it's probably better off than like you know

dud clark or something yeah square and union i mean i don't know how that would work out it would be applicable but i don't know that i would necessarily try to do it um you know at least clark at least clark used half of his real name warren didn't even warren didn't even use half uh yes so look for that i think they're talking about how like the betting markets and how they're moving or you know impacting dfs ownership and things like that so it should be on our youtube page uh if i'm speaking out of turn and it's not today it'll probably be next week so um what do i know i just just run the whole thing i don't know noon in uh should i be worried that i have first and second place in the golf right now that's awesome yeah that never turns out well does it it does not on a Friday, no. No. You want that on a Sunday.

What happened to my guy Ben Griffin? What a loser. What happened to my guy Tom Hoagie, Pat? That I don't know, because I played Davis Thompson this week. Oh, good for Davis Thompson. He finished two under after shooting five over yesterday. He was a sin eater for all my bets. All my guys played well except for him.

I need Killer Keith. He's my only, I think, live bullet here. I think he's in the top 10 or he's close. I'll talk with Pat and Ryan. Thanks for hanging out with us, Connor. It's all right. I'm here for it. Just maybe I could pick up a tip here or there and then just go all in.

That's usually what I do is I wait for New to have like a fire the cannons play and then I go in. Yeah, don't follow Silva's golf tips would be my advice. You end up with Nate Lashley. Nate Lashley season forever. All right. A handful that I'm looking at. And then I'll also talk about some tackles getting in the weeds and the tackles this week. Um, talked about your Kobe Myers receptions. Love that spot. Um, I think I'm on raw is going to come out at six and a half receptions. I still think the over is probably in play. We talked about the first read splits last night.

We talked about the splits when Goff is pressured. And again, talked earlier about how both those teams, the Giants splits at the league's highest rate. There's going to be a lot of that this week. I think you just Amon Ra over six and a half receptions, even though it seems high, still think is a great play. This one is not super exciting, but it's kind of emerged. I think Wando Robinson doesn't play or is dealing with a

hamstring. Darius Slayton is like 40 and a half receiving yards. Again, going to be a man heavy looks and Darius Slayton leads the league in yards per outrun against man targets this season. Nice game last week. Daigle spoke glowingly about him on our show last night. We were handicapping that game a little bit. It's low. It's ugly. It's Darius Slayton, but 40 and a half is not a high threshold to get over. And again, if he's, it's Kenny Galladay, like who's he really competing with for targets

here? It's not happening. So if Wandel Robinson is officially out, I would like that even more. I think it probably moves into the low 40s if you don't grab it quick. But that one's kind of disgusting, but also pretty interesting. And I also think Jonathan Taylor rushing attempts, kind of the other side of Connors play with kind of the same handicap. I think his attempt numbers is pretty interesting.

So tackles. I got into some stuff on tackles per opportunity this week, which is kind of a new metric. And apparently there is data out there on the home scoring of the scorekeepers because it is subjective more so than anything else, right? Like a reception happens or it doesn't. Who gets associated with an assist is up to someone sitting in the booth. And there's some data, the three-year rolling average of these tendencies

of who gets assists more, who tends to be a little bit more like solo tackle only and found some favorable matchups. So Josie Jewell, Denver linebacker, a really good spot. Denver is actually the best place to play as far as tackle opportunities per play basics. He is going to be an every down linebacker there. Probably see a lot of Jacobs there. Zaire Franklin and Bobby Okereke, two linebackers for the Colts. Shaq Leonard out for the season. These guys become every down linebackers and there'll probably be a lot of play volume from the Eagles who also want to run the football good spot for Franklin and Okereke also Indy is also very favorable in

terms of assists granted and that works out well because we don't care if they're solo or assists here in the betting streets same game TJ Edwards on other side, a linebacker for the Eagles, has I think 12 or more in three straight, at least eight in every game this season. He's been a stud, plays every down for them as well. And then Jack Sanborn is a linebacker for the Bears. He's taken over the Roquan Smith role, 19 tackles in two games without Roquan. We know the Falcons want to run the ball, regardless of who it is. Sanborn has been hung at like 6.5 and 5.5 the last two weeks.

So even if he comes out at 7.5, I think he's probably worth a pretty good look there. Yeah, because obviously we don't know what these are. I want to bet these because I've been doing really well with these, tailing you. Like for Jose Jewell, instead of giving, cause obviously the numbers aren't out yet. What do you think like an up to number would be for him? Yeah. Jose Jewel will probably be seven and a half. I'd play that comfortably regardless of the price. Um, I think he probably should be at eight and a half every week. Um, Franklin and Okariki, I think Franklin's eight and a half Okariki seven and a half, uh, depending on what that price is, as far as like the juice, I'll take whoever's the best price. Cause I think they're both, I think Franklin's eight and a half, Okariki seven and a half, depending on what that price is as far as like the juice.

I'll take whoever's the best price because I think they're both, I think they're probably pretty equal. They shouldn't be split. But Franklin has been an every down guy, regardless of what happens with Shaq Leonard. And that's why he kind of gets a little bit more favoritism, I think, because maybe his season long numbers are better. Okariki from like a tackle per snap rate is right there with him.

So those guys are both great plays. So yeah, I imagine Okariki seven like a tackle per snap rate is is right there with him so those guys are both great plays so yeah i imagine okariki seven and a half is a good play okay and for edwards edwards will be eight and a half yeah and i'm fine with that as long as we're not paying astronomical juice okay got it let's win let's get it we played our first tackle under last week and it was a sweat and it won uh so we'll see. I got some more. With this new data, I think there's a couple other under options that we'll go to this week. It just will never be on our tackle god, Alex Singleton. We'll never try to see if he – guy got us 21 tackles.

Should not be the first guy that I try to take an under on. But, yeah, it worked for us. All right. A couple minutes left in the show. Let's tackle some of your questions. If you are hanging out with us and you want to get our thoughts on some stuff this week, let us know. And we will get through here a few. Nico Collins from Lucas, over 40 and a half receiving yards.

This was talked about in our Discord this morning, Connor, as well. Interesting usage for Brandon Cooks last week 63 of the snaps again someone made the reference that there's like maybe some maybe not antonio brown to that degree but like he seems to not want to be there they seem to maybe be okay not playing him and then we've seen a pretty good spike i think take a lot of the splits like nico's been the guy the last three weeks when they both played now again three-week sample but what are your thoughts on nico over 40 and a half sorry i'd say connor earlier but then i talked for another 30 seconds sorry lost you there yeah i lean over i think it's it's a solid look it's just uh how many bad how many uh wide receivers can i bet with bad quarterbacks

overs like it's just like these are the plays where i look back and I'm just like, what was I thinking? You know what I mean? Like sometimes I'm like, man, I bet an over on Nico Collins with Davis Mills at quarterback. Like, come on, dude.

You know? So like for me, I get it. I think it's probably the overs or I lean, but I think we write, we haven't like, right at like 50. I think other medium projections have like,

right at like 44. Yeah. In terms of my projection, what the hell did he go? Where'd you go? Nico? I had it. No,

John, there he is. I got him at 36 and a half. So yeah, no, probably no, no for me on that. But again,

I think that's more of a, that's a medium projection that is taking into consideration everything that's happened so far this year. I mean, that's really where projections, unless you really go customize them. And I have my custom and I just haven't gone player by player and adjusted as of yet. But if we're taking stuff from week one and week two in terms of target chair and catch rate,

and now that he's more in the Brandon Cooks role and Cooks is more in the Collins role, then I can see why you would want to go over on that. That's it for me, too, is just I don't want to sit here and be wondering why he's got an air ball at halftime and i'm like i'm waiting for this you know davis mills to like kick it up in the second half and that's just that's tough to stomach so um i know for me but i i get to play there's that part of it and i remember watching the giants game last week with the texans and at one point i think it was in the third quarter it's like the the the Texans have not completed a pass over six yards yet. It's like, oh, my God.

And then they finally did like a dump off to Rex Burkhead for 13 yards. It was like, oh, fantastic. Great, great news. Yeah. You cannot watch that. You cannot bet that and then actually try to live sweat that play because it will steal years off your life. So, yeah.

Jayvon, shout out to a regular listener. Hangs out with us on both shows. Appreciate it. Waiting on Paris Campbell receptions, 7, 10, 7, the last three games with Ryan. Best way to attack the Eagles is through the slot. Any thoughts on Paris Campbell here, Pat? I like Paris Campbell a lot. I think I would play it up to, I mean, I'd want it to be 3.5 and go over on the 3.5.

And I think that medium projections will probably spit him out around three or three and a half you might get some incredible vig on the over if you get to it on sunday but right away if you want to pounce on that i actually like it yeah connor what is your uh initial reaction to paris yeah i mean i know i'm on the matt ryan under so i don't really want to take the yardage over on anything but if you do want to take a yardage over, that's probably the way to go. Unless you same game parlay. Exactly. There you go.

Yeah, because that's the way to go. I mean, I don't really think Pittman necessarily goes off either. But, you know, 60, 70 yards for Pittman, 40 yards for, you know, Paris Campbell and kind of the rest of everyone. I mean, who else are we getting another 130 yards from? I don't know. Yeah, let's see. Over Paris Campbell. Let's see if i can same game parlay this just to see what it was because i went through this last week with schultz and dacre i actually ended up betting that i was so happy and then obviously overtime happened and i was like oh come on yeah such a

bad way last week was so bad for me it was incredible just all of the worst stuff that could happen spreads totals props it was just a bad week sometimes you just got to write those off and say you know what was not my week bad reads bad bad luck and bad reads is always a deadly combination when it comes to a lot of this so uh you know i'll try to back off that one a little bit but i do want to see what the same game parlay would actually give me here because i i do think that if you do have opposing views in the game this is always the way to do it again with those uncorrelated props uh that just it's like the same game parlay algorithm doesn't know what to do when you start doing these things so we'll go matt ryan what do we say his over under was it was two it's 230 but i mean you can probably go

under 220 or 225 that's what it is i don I don't know. I mean, you have the different ranges. We can even take under 244 and a half if we want to. So that's minus 160 right now. So we'll do that. But we'll go to Paris Campbell over 34 and a half. That pays plus 240. And those are alt totals. Yeah, if you remember this last week,

Pat brought up a good point that the uncorrelated same game parlay, especially, you know, interacting with the same teams where you're like looking at an under on a quarterback and an over on a receiver that does not bode well, typically for what you would think it's going to typically be fed to a same game parlay calculator. And the odds actually work in your favor, which is what doesn't typically happen in the same game parlay. So this is kind of what he's talking about. So let me give you a perfect example of this. So I have under 244 passing yards for Matt Ryan right now. That's big to minus 160 on DraftKings Sportsbook as a part of the same game parlay. If I throw in the over of Paris Campbell, 34 and a half at minus 145. Obviously, if you did a parlay calculator,

went minus 160 and minus 145, the odds wouldn't be great. But because it is a part of the same game parlay, it's plus 240, as I mentioned. Now, if I want to take the under of Paris Campbell, which would be correlated to Matt Ryan, it's actually plus 115 to get the under of 34 and a half. And the other side of it like i mentioned was minus 145 that ended up paying plus 240 now if i take this plus 115 under of paris campbell and pair it with the under of matt ryan it is plus 185 that's a big difference and there is a 60 cent difference between those two props that's pretty crazy and it makes a lot of sense though a normal minus 160 minus 145 uh parlay is plus 174. and this is giving you plus 240.

so yeah it's that's unusual to get actually advantageous odds through a same game parlay which is you know kind of the crux of the argument against them is that the books you know shade that to their favor this is kind of an interesting way to crack the code i think focusing on the the lower tier guys too is like special like you probably don't want to take like a dac under and a cd lamb over necessarily but like no but you want to take i did it with schultz last week because it was like 34 and a half yeah you want to kind of go under passing yards with one like and you can alt those up too because as you can see i just took two alt totals like i gave myself an extra 25 yards for matt ryan to go under and i think like six less than what campbell's

actual over under is and yeah you want it you want to target the lower end receiving yards with the higher end passing yards i think yeah it's good stuff i like that a lot so yeah i mean i think we probably prefer the receptions on paris but wait and see um you know good spot for him and usage has been encouraging as you mentioned there uh brian wants to know about uh cream hunt buffaloes being a run funnel defense and he leans towards hunt rushing when they post it or even a points bet market if posted. I don't know. I haven't been really tied into the cream hunt markets of late.

Again, the usage is just so sporadic at times. What's he been doing? Not a lot, I don't think. I hate betting on him. I don't know. It just seems like they just – it's almost borderline inexplicable. It's like what they do with him. I just don't – like the whole, they gave him 11 carries against the Bengals

and then just six carries against the Dolphins. I mean, he was pretty stable before that, like early in the season, 11, 13, 12, 10, 11, you know, like carries. But since then, his usage has been like all over the place. Yeah, he's not top 30% of the team's rushing attempts in the last four weeks or so probably if i had interest in kareem hunt i'd maybe go with the longest rush market if you thought that he was going to be a play this week that's actually a shout out to our guy uh mj3

who's who's here how long is too long for nick chubb's longest rush to be? Like, I don't know, probably going to be like 16 and a half, 17 and a half. Yeah, like, there we go. So that would be probably the way to play Kareem Hunt, who's had such unpredictable usage, if you had interest in that matchup or Kareem Hunt. So, yeah, not necessarily something that I'm going to go to the well to this week. So, Pat, any thoughts on Kareem Hunt? Yeah, agreed. Jax, any thoughts on on cream hunt yeah agreed jacks any thoughts on cream hunt what do you think bud oh he got the whale i love it yeah he does not like when i'm down here for too too long he would like to come down uh

soon as possible tj hawkinson solid look is yeah solid look i think hawkinson's usage has been fantastic uh since he's been uh implemented here like 90 percent route participation in a pretty good spot not a great matchup on paper i think uh because i looked at this a little bit dallas is pretty good covering tight ends but nothing that i would avoid if you had a lean here and i don't think the number is too too high either any thoughts here pat yeah it's 44 and a half in terms of the over under i really like the over yeah connor again a lot of tight ends here in this uh end of the over under, I really liked the over. Yeah. Connery. I, again, a lot of tight ends here in this,

uh, end of the show here. What are your thoughts on Hawk? How many tight end reception overs can I bet in a single week? Because I think that the receptions for me was really interesting with like, you see what seven and 10 targets in two weeks since becoming a Viking. Uh, and I think that they're going to be passing a good amount here.

Uh, you know, and I don't really see the outside guys having too, too much success. So yeah, I think it could be an interesting spot to target some pockets and reception overs here as well and like he's very clearly the number two in this passing game at this point and if the cowboys don't inexplicably not rush micah parsons like they did a week ago you'd have to think that

there's going to be pressure dallas is going to generate with anthony barback you should see more of parsons being unleashed on the quarterback, get the ball out quickly, throw to the low a doc guy. I mean, Hawkinson makes one guy miss. He's taken off down the field like this. I know we've seen like seven for 50 and like nine for 56. Like that's a typical floor type. And I mean, that's a lot for a four or nine reception,

stuff like that. But like those low a dot prices without him breaking a tackle are kind of his floor because his upside, as we've seen in multiple games this season, make one guy miss, all of a sudden he's taken off down the field. Yeah, we talked about the matchup earlier as far as it pertains to Friar Muth. Buffalo was really good against tight ends as well.

So last week wasn't even a good matchup on paper. This week is a little bit softer. I mean, the Cowboys, as I mentioned, pretty decent against tight ends, but not anything that we would avoid. So no problem with the Hawk. Look, I got one for you from that game. KJ Osborne is like 27 and a half or something.

I feel like he's just more involved than Adam Thielen at this point. I was actually looking at that as well. And I, cause I saw it and I was like, Oh, like I, I haven't been paying too close attention to the Vikings usage, you know,

and he's been kind of sneaky involved. And he saw that he saw two targets for zero catches like two games ago, but then saw what? 10 targets last week. I'm pretty sure. Yeah. 11. Yeah.

But they were trailing that entire time and had to come back. So, I mean, it's probably a stay away, but I just, it's interesting. Like once you get past Jefferson and Hawkinson, maybe unders on all those other guys,

the move. Yeah. Bro. Participation has been solid. 86, 89, 90% the last couple of weeks. You saw last week to a 16% target share. So maybe a decent look.

Yeah. I mean, you look at the Hawkinson stuff, it's just like elite receiver type usage with his route participation targets per route run stuff is, is off the chart. So yeah, maybe,

maybe it is a good tight end week. So it happens every once in a while. Kind of all happens at the same time. Yeah. In that same game, I was eyeing Kirk Cousins' unders because we talked about it on another show, but against man coverage and against pressure, he has like a sub 50% completion rate in both instances.

And Dallas plays man at a really high level. They bring pressure. I think they're like number two in pressure rate. So I don't know. I think it's an interesting spot here, but the number kind of is already adjusted for that. It's like two 56, but I mean,

if there'll be any success on the ground here, which we've seen against the Cowboys, like maybe they stick to that. I don't know. It's something that I keep going back and forth. Cause cousins has been like pretty consistently over that number, but this seems like a particularly tough matchup. So I i'm you know thinking about it i just don't have any strong you know enough conviction yet yeah maybe it's an efficiency thing maybe completions or something like that you know get burned by the long ball or

something so i think it's a good look i mean i do think the data is pretty loud there as far as the matchup that we've highlighted uh next young and fearless uh daryl henderson under 11 and a half for a longest rush talking about the backfield splits eight carries i mean that's i get it it sounds good right right but like again like yeah split backfield eight carries but it just takes one in this theoretical play here. So, you know, something like this, I would want to kind of shy away from his volume totals and stuff like that. But you know, any leans there, Pat? No, these just aren't,

unless it's over on what I deem to be from, you know, Pat's scouting mind explosive play running backs like Henry Chubb, ETN, Cordero Patterson would be another one. Just those guys that you know can get there all in one shot. I mean, is Henderson overly explosive? Because if not, like this just reeks of like seven carries for 12 yards total. Yeah, but one of these is a 12-yard carry, and then the rest were zeros.

Yeah, you can always follow into that. I think I would rather rather apply i'd like to see the research on it but i think i'd rather play unders in those situations yeah i was i was considering that that goes along with our next question too of matthew stafford under 35 and a half longest completion no cup uh i think that's interesting he's only gone over that twice but yeah but here here's a argument against that would be with no cup who was what 40 of their offense and most of it was underneath stuff to cup and let him do all the yak and that was very effective without him there they may need to retool what they do offensively it's not like barbara stanwick's gonna come in and he's just gonna run the cup routes he's gonna try it try. It's not going to be effective. I could see a bunch of deep shots with Van Jefferson this week.

Yeah, that's a good call because, right, the things will shift here in a different way because you're taking out like the cog of the offense. This is like 40% of it is a generously low percentage of how impactful he is there. So yeah, when things change, that's a pretty good point. So we're staying away from. Thoughts on Damian Pierce under 79 and a half rushing yards. I mean, I know he's part of the Texans, but like Pierce falls into the bucket

that Pat was just talking about. Like he's just kind of got this wiggle and explosiveness and the ability to break tackles that he had in Florida and is shown here still like even, even in really bad spots. Like Philadelphia, we thought was just, hey, they're going to get blown out. He's not going to run a ton. Next thing you know, he's got 80 at the half. Like, it's a stay away for me.

I think he's actually just really good. So what do you think, Pat? Yeah, and he can volume you to death, too. He doesn't even need one of those, that even if they're down. And listen, the spread is three in this game. They expect it to be close and anytime it's within a score like right in damien pierce 22 carries and then he doesn't even be need to be efficient to kill you on that so those aren't the type of guys that i like to target commanders back to that road scotty too hotty is trending

on twitter that's i can't be good poor guy not going to live is he can't have good. Poor guy. He's not going to live, is he? He can't have that. No, he's not dead either, so that's good. Usually when you see wrestlers pop up, it's never a good thing. All right. Looks like that's it. Some good questions. Young and fearless.

I mean, I'm not sure what the context of this is. If his aunt had balls, she'd be his uncle. I mean, I agree with that. So I'm not sure where that comes from, but those are facts. Pat, where can everyone find your stuff? Mayo Media Network, Pat Mayo Experience Audio Podcast, and the Mayo Media Newsletter, all three things that you can go join. And I also run a rake-free DraftKings League,

which you can find in the description of any one of my shows on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or up on YouTube. It's $15 to play, three max entry max entry no rake thus making it ryan the best tournament on draft games indisputable those are facts when's the fantasy uh season-long golf draft happen you got that scheduled yet now good lord no uh sometime over i usually record it in between christmas and new Year's. Yeah. Maybe a little bit. Do you want in on it this year? Oh, if there's a seat, I'll 100% take it.

I mean, there could be unlimited seats. That's true. Although we lost a lot of PGA Tour players. It's true. This is where you're going to separate the men from boys. You have to get down to the Trey Mullinex's of the world, start to make those decisions. There was no beating jeff last year he had scheffler and zander yeah decided zander decided to start winning tournaments that became problematic for yeah i

i came second with like 21 million bucks and i think i finished 10 million behind jeff yeah hey didn't mean to invite myself, but if there's a seat, I'll 100% take it. Would you play golf best ball season long? Absolutely. See, I would too. I'm working on getting that being made a thing. Yeah, absolutely would play a ton of golf best ball.

I'd start drafting tonight if it was in the lobby. Golf needs to continue to evolve and do more stuff. Like one and done stuff is great, and obviously DFS is great. We love to bet it. There's a million ways to bet it, but I cannot wait to see what happens once this Netflix show pops in January, February,

they're talking about how we saw what happened with F1 when that show populated, and I just think golf is just going to continue to take off so yeah i'm excited so my ideas are best ball and eliminator sort of like a survivor pool but it's you have to pick someone to make the cut that's really good because it's not as easy as it would sound now or you have to pick two people per week to miss make the cut or something give me a corner in on that or or do the opposite you have to pick someone to miss the cut or something. Give me a quarter in on that. Or do the opposite.

You have to pick someone to miss the cut. I don't bet miss cut bets a lot. I bet Sam Burns to miss the cut at the Valspar. He won. He did. So, I stayed away from missing. And I love Sam Burns.

I'm like a Sam Burns guy. I thought he was awful at the players. And I'm like like i'm fading sam burns next week he was all over the place anyone uh so yeah i stay away from this cut bets and i would probably fare pretty poorly in a uh survivor as we just laid it out so well the problem because i like becomes like if everyone's at the back end it's like oh omar rizzi is playing in this tournament okay he's gonna miss the cut that becomes the issue that's true oh my god now harry higgs is tied for the lead now we gotta get if everyone's at the back end, it's like, oh, Omar Urizi is playing in this tournament. Okay, he's going to miss the cut. That becomes the issue. That's true.

Oh, my God. Now Harry Higgs is tied for the lead. Now we got to get out of here. Connor, what's going on with you? Nothing. Just trying to continue to go viral on TikTok with all of our shows. That's about it. You know, just a slave to the Chinese software right now. 444 bets on TikTok.

It was Connor Allen NFL. Yep. And at four for four football and at four for four bets, like watch subscribe. I think that's what you do on Tik TOK, but you know, help us out. Yep.

And all the YouTube shorts here as well. We appreciate all the love there. So yeah, for stateside folks, enjoy your Thanksgiving. We'll be back. Same spot. No break,

no West for the Weary. Black Friday will be a prop Friday for us. So for Pat and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next week. Thanks, everyone. Yeah!