Move The Line - NFL Week 2: EXPERT Bets & BEST Betting Odds

Episode Date: September 16, 2022

Move The Line Week 2 NFL betting preview with hosts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan & John Daigle. The experts share their top NFL betting picks for Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season and divulge the best odds and lines so you can get the best number at your favorite sportsbook! Timestamps:0:00 Intro0:53 Welcomes & Week 1 Recap02:33 Connor Bet #1 - Vikings Team Total O23.5 (-120 DK)05:46 Ryan Bet #1 - Bills -9.5 (-112, FD)09:08 Daigle Bet #1 - Commanders ML (+108, FD)12:25 Connor Bet #2 - Miami +3.5 (-110 at FD)17:28 Ryan Bet #2 - Panthers O20.5 (-110, DK)20:00 Daigle Bet #2 - Giants -1.5 (-112, FD)22:15 Connor Bet #3 - New England U20.5 points (-110 Caesars)25:35 Ryan Bet #3 - 2-team 6 pt teaser: Browns PK & SF -2.5 (-120, DK)31:37 Daigle Bet #3 - Raiders -5.5 (-110, FD)35:58 OutroWant a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼  https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMSign-up for No House Advantage with Promo Code 4for4 & get a first-time deposit match of up to $25! 👉🏼 https://bit.ly/4For4Podcasts-NHASubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/notJDaigleFollow Geoff on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/gfienberg17Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea

Hello and welcome. Move along. I'm Ryan Noonan. Excited to be back for week two. Talking football with my friends, Connor Allen, John Dale, and our week two thoughts. Kind of going around the horn, we're just going to share three bets in the spots. Mixed bag for us last week, your not so humble host went two and one, saved the show a little bit. JD came in one and two on his picks last week connor looking

to turn the page start a new um remember really good at prop betting uh connor focuses a lot on props uh that's all i got i can't do anything else he was oh and three last week guys only uphill from here i knew i wasn't going to get that saints bet once I saw the final injury report 48 hours later. I was like, oh, okay. Well, this is how this is going to go. But I instead put Cordero Patterson in the DFS article for everyone. So at least our subs paid it off.

Oh, gentlemen, that's nice of you. Connor, like you said, only one way to go. I can't get any worse. Or you could run it back and go 0-3, start the season 0-6. I don't want to put that on you, but I feel like I'm looking at some of the things that you did here. You went very...

This feels like a very Noonan card. A couple team totals in here. Some... Yeah, so we'll see how it goes. you can start and i like the first one that you have for us to be fair on the last week's card you beat me to the ravens minus six and a half jets under i was also on that um and i mean the eagle is not covering three and a half closing at six against the lions i mean that's that's rough so it's true i did beat you

the car that's been out there for the entirety of for two months for you to fill out at any point but yeah yeah no no that's all that's my fault my fault only but uh you know i i did also bet that so more like a one in one in three uh in my mind uh but i'll get started the record show oh and three yeah the record will show on um all right First one here for me. I like the Vikings team total over 23 and a half points and for multiple reasons here, but I expect this game to be fast paced, tons of passing the Eagles and Vikings, both top 10 and no huddle rate in week one,

10th and 11th and pass rate over expectation. Eagles ranked sixth in EPA via the past while the Vikings ranked ninth. I mean, it's literally, I think going to be a back and forth passing affair. I mean, it's literally, I think, going to be a back-and-forth passing affair. The Eagles told us last week, you know, after the whole offseason of debating whether they're going to be a run first, pass first, you know, they skewed towards the pass a little bit, 10th and, you know,

pass right over expectation. And I couldn't have been more impressed with what I saw out of Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings here with how well they were scheming Justin Jefferson, how good they were getting him open. And now they're facing against an Eagles defense that ranked just 30th in run EPA. They were getting gashed by the Lions for a good quarter of the game on the ground.

So if the Vikings do decide to go to the ground, they can get them there. If they continue to pass and kind of elevate the game, I think that they'll have plenty of success there as well because it's not like the Eagles were really that great against the lions either. And I think that we like the Eagles defense to improve, but I didn't really see as much of that as I would have liked there in last week's game. So I think that this Vikings office will have plenty of success.

23 and a half seems a little bit light. I mean, I think it's about the right number, but you're seeing some 24 and a half pop now. I think that they're probably gonna be closer to, you know, 26, 27 points by the game's finish. And I like this, this whole game to go over in general, but I think the Vikings team total for me is how I'm playing it.

Yeah. I like that look a lot as well. Take, we'll do any thoughts here in this matchup. It's going to be a fun one on Monday. We know Jonathan Gannon runs a majority zone coverage. And then last year and in week one, Kirk Cousins against cover two and cover three, 72% completion rate and eight and a half yards per attempt.

So pretty successful. The fact they schemed Justin Jefferson, as Connor hinted at, for seven of his 10 targets against linebackers and safeties, he practically avoided a cornerback the entire time. He was already better than Cooper Cup from the boundary, but now he's being used like Cooper Cup from the slot too too where he ran over or he averaged over two yards per route run last year from the middle of the field just didn't get used there ever so it's a it's a new offense it's a new world for the vikings completely i agree i think this is going to be a fun game

yeah it's going to be it's going to be good but i like that quite a bit and you know when these we're in these spots too with uh we have a few of them on the slate this week where I feel like it's these row teams that are in a coin flip spot. You're getting this team total on the lower end of key numbers on the row team. And I think there's some, maybe an advantageous way to approach it this week is maybe taking, you know, instead of taking the points, you're taking the right side of the key number and hoping that, you know, again, the coin toss goes in your so i like the vikings in that sense quite a bit too and yeah i think that there were questions about what we saw late in that game with detroit for letting them back in so uh be interested to see there and again they got off to a great start against

the packers but the packers defense i think we all think is really good even though they didn't really come out with the scheme that i was going to be successful enough to slow down justin jefferson i think long, there's way more talent on that defense than most. So Philly has a lot of talent too, but again, defensive coordinator is a question mark coming into the season and maybe showed up a little bit in week one too. First bet for me, we got down on this in the lookaheads in our Discord. And I, again, cannot recommend that enough, getting in the Discord, turning on the notifications getting the push push notifications because as soon as we hit bills minus six and a half it was seven and a half um we don't typically see that in sides very often

but this is last week um seven and a half is continuing to get steamed it's up to nine and a half in some spots i put 10 in some spots i want to bring it up again at nine and a half because i still think it's a play. I think that the Bills are going to destroy the Titans this week. I'm on the Titans team total under. I think they're going to have difficulty moving the football. They allowed a Giants team, which was without its top two pass rushers, to get the third highest rate of pressure last week against Ryan Tannehill,

who was able to survive on some big fluke plays like Dontrell Hilliard in the passing game. I don't feel really strong about that. It's offensive line is a problem in the run game where they want to really establish it and control the clock, do things with Derrick Henry. Things they did last year actually against Buffalo. I don't think that they're going to do this year. I think there's more depth up front for the Bills. I think they're going to be more cognizant of that and maybe we'll run a little bit heavier boxes up front. And I think offensively,

what we saw with the Bills is going to continue. I mean, if Josh Allen is going to be this efficient guy that takes what you give him in the intermediate, man, like it is going to be a really difficult team to stop. They're going to have to beat themselves a lot. I do not think the Titans are the team that are going to slow them down. So I like the Titans team total under 18 and a half, under 19, basically anywhere up to 17 and a half. And I think the Bills absolutely boat race them here. Comfortable if you can get it under 10.

And that's exactly what he did. They wanted James Cook to be the answer underneath, but instead Allen just found whoever else was open. For the most part, it was Zach Moss for six six targets but seven and a half yard depth of target the rams kept three safeties deep for over 40 of their defensive snaps and alan just took it underneath so again right now no one has a response for the bills because the bills learned how to play against two deep safeties so good for them i'll continue betting on them until they have to respond on film again. Yeah.

I, I like that under on the team total a lot for the Titans. I just don't, I just don't see a way that they're, they're able to score like three touchdowns, even two touchdowns on a field goal. It seems like a lot getting this on the right side of 17. So like a 17 and a half or better is I think a great, great bet.

So that's one of my favorites as well. But I think it's a great look here at nine and a half love. I did lock in that minus six and a half as well with everyone uh and you know i'm not sure i will bet the nine and a half because i don't like laying a ton of points but all the reasons you uh mentioned make a ton of sense yeah i'm not chasing the nine and a half because i feel good about a solid position on the six and a half but i wanted to give it out and say hey i still am confident in it and again i don't love this card from a size and total standpoints or from a side standpoint. So it's actually probably still one of my favorite bets, even though I feel like we obviously get down at a much better number,

but again, look at lines article comes out every Thursday morning, Thursday afternoon. There's some plays in that for a week three. Um, you know, I, you know, closing line value did not pay, uh, for any of my family's meals last year, but I think long-term we're going to get on the right side of things. If we are beating the books with the number, sometimes it's going to work in our favor. And sometimes just football still has to be played. So it doesn't mean that you win,

but you always want to try to win and beat the closing line whenever possible. JD first play for you, but we are rolling, not so much with the Carson Went wince train but with the commanders because i really think they will be able to do whatever they want the roar continues to not be restored in detroit uh even if you take out jalen hurts rushing yards eagles running backs averaged 5.7 yards per carry in week one it's the same shit as last year where the lions to pure backfields

allowed 4.4 yards per carry and the fifth most rushing yards to enemy running backs last year where the Lions to pure backfields allowed 4.4 yards per carry and the fifth most rushing yards to enemy running backs last year. The Washington commanders we saw were comfortable, at least during competitive game script, leaning on Antonio Gibson over four yards per carry. And I think Washington could go that route, even though they were a top 10 pass play rate offense and neutral game script. So either way, it's just the fact that I don't think Lions defense can stop Washington. And more importantly, Jared Goff, as we expected, you would think in a nut game script in that offense with 38 points, you would look at his box score and it would be significantly better than less than six yards per attempt and literally last in sports info solutions on target rate

in week one. So no faith in the Lions passing offense, and I will continue to bet against them. I mean, on the Commander's team total, it took over 23 and a half, which is readily available out there as well. I mean, I think we were all like bullish, and I think you feel good about Scott Turner. And if he can do a little bit of that with Carson Wentz,

as you pointed out, the defense is still a disaster. We got the full spectrum of Wentz last week too. Like at twice, two at two points in that game, he was benched for the rest of the year and starting for the rest of the year. Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, but pass rate over expiration top four in the league, Curtis Samuel, we haven't really seen that a little bit from him. He looks spry. I mean, it was,

you know, one and a half yards averaged up the target, but like he's got that after the play ability that I think is really dynamic. And then again, we've been looking for anything as far as secondary receiving options next to Terry McLaurin. Now, you know, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel all in one to stay healthy. It's kind of a nice little thing there. So 23 and a half on the team total there in the commanders.

I like quite a bit, but yeah, no problem with them on the money line as well any thoughts here connor i do think it is interesting though that jared goff just continues to be exactly what you know we expect from him in a sense that they they script the first like two drives where the plays and the lines looked really good for those two drives and then looked like shit after they looked horrible and like i mean until the end end-of-game resurgence where they dinked and dunked their way downfield for, you know, the majority of whatever, like down 20 points and found their way to cover.

But, you know, I think that that just continues to be a thing here where Jared Goff looks good when he has help, when, you know, McVay is in his headset or when he has scripted plays. And, you know, like, but otherwise he's just a jack. He's just very average, not capable of, you know, McVay's in his headset or when he has scripted plays and, you know, like, but that otherwise he's just a Jack. He's just very average, not capable of, you know, really leading a team somewhere outside of getting like a ton of help from a guy. Like, I guess I'm in Rossi Brown helps, but I'm just not sure that that's enough. I'm on Rossi Brown now with 29% target share, at least in seven consecutive games. Like

he is the one true standout among that entire offense. Deandre Swift too. But overall, yeah, it's just not enough whenever your quarterback isn't league average. of games like he is the one true standout among that entire offense deandre swift too but overall yeah it's just not enough whenever your quarterback is in league average i agree that should be a fun up up and pace game and uh not a whole lot of defense and uh connor bet number two buddy yeah bet bet number two here going against our guy sharp clark it feels a little wrong but i like it here i'm taking the dolphins and the points at plus three and a half and Clark, it feels a little wrong, but I like it here. I'm taking the Dolphins and the points at plus three and a half. And I know it's a little contrarian, but I'm a little bit concerned about this Ravens team. So last week, they were only 16th in EPA overall against the Jets.

They cannot get anything going on the ground. 27th in EPA on the ground, despite playing with a lead the entire time. They are now missing, you know, Ronnie Stanley looks like he's going to miss again. He didn't practice today or was limited. Jawan james now out um they're now going to be missing also in the secondary um you know marcus peters kyle fuller uh and so if you're looking at kind of how this team plays like we're looking at lamar jackson he's at his best and like their their office is optimized when he's able to run the ball when they have an effective running attack that they can they're just way more multiple when they can have an effective running attack

and also like break the top of the defenses with a passing attack. Last week they were passing the ball deep a ton, and I just don't think that that's like their identity. That's just not what we've seen from him during his MVP season. And now you have Rashad Bateman, Devin Dourne, and Mark Andrews kind of trying to pick up that bulk. And so I'm a little bit worried about this team offensively. And then defensively for the Dolphins,

they played really, really well against New England. Now, how much of a barometer is that? We don't really know. I mean, New England could have like a bottom three offense when it's all said and done. But I really think that they played really well. Also notable that Xavier Howard shadowed Devante Parker and stay with him 94.8% of the snaps. So, you know, I think that that's something to look for potentially

with Rashad Bateman unders, something that we're hiring, but just in general with this offense here for Miami, I couldn't have been more impressed with how Mike McDaniel got Tyra kill open, got him in his space. He really just focused on to his strengths, didn't try to make him do stuff that he couldn't. And, you know, I think it was still a little bit shaky at times, but I'm confident on this Dolphins offense going forward. And I think that once they get the ground game going, maybe not here, but in the future, obviously leading the league in pass rate over expectation as well.

Last week was really impressive. I think this is a good spot for them to cover. Maybe not win, but plus three and a half. I like the Dolphins here. What do you got, JD? Thoughts here? Well, it's going to be a boring game, first of all. I half. I like the Dolphins here. What do you got, JD? Thoughts here? Well, it's going to be a boring game, first of all. I don't know if they reach 40 combined points.

I agree. And the total continues showing that as it just sinks more and more overnight. But we know what the Dolphins are going to do, and hopefully the Ravens do too, because if little old fantasy analyst knows, Lamar Jackson had his face blitzed off on 60% of his dropbacks last year. Josh Boyer, same exact scheme. It's going to happen again.

So how does he respond? Lamar Jackson has been poor for his career against the Blitz. What are they going to do? Even this game last year, he averaged five and a half yards per attempt. So I don't know. He may have a high completion rate because he only dumps the ball off. But I'm really worried about the Ravens in this game. Yeah, the total has dropped from when it opened quite a bit.

Interesting shift here from what we've seen historically again wink martindale typically defensive coordinator we have mike mcdonald coming back um spending a year at michigan came back basically trading harbaugh brothers and they ran a lot of zone last week last year they were a very heavy man team even with their like just decrepit secondary that they ran out late in the season due to all the injuries. Ton of zone last week. I think you continue to see that now with Kyle Fuller out. Lack of depth there.

And different with how they've schemed in the past. And we have some pretty sizable splits over the first little bit of Tua's career where he is much better against man than he is against zone. It gets a small sample, but this doesn't actually work theoretically for him as much as it would in the past. Now, again, I kind of agree with Connor to the point where I expect Mike McDaniel to be able to scheme things open and they have better weapons than they ever have for him to work with. But yeah, I mean, I have gone back and forth. I want to get on in on some two unders here because I think he maybe struggles because I'm kind of with JD.

I think it's kind of a slow, unexciting offensive game here on both sides of the football. So you guys are both split here. Going against Clark is not necessarily a place that I want to take a stand on all the time, but I respect you, Connor. Staying loyal to your, your dolphins. Yeah. I mean, I could have completed some you, Connor staying loyal to your, your dolphins. Yeah. I mean, I could have completed some of those throws out there to Tyreek,

man. He was so open. It was unbelievable. And they're like, you know, a couple of like three yards out there. Like he's not even have to throw it far. And I get,

get throw my left hand out there and still completed to Tyreek and throw for, you know, 20 yards, but it would all be, you know, completion percentage over expectation, you know,

crap that we see out of the Shanahan tree that works. So we're also already seeing the regression we expected in the Ravens offense. Sixty seven plays per game last year, which was the 11th most in the NFL in the last decade and in week one, 56. So, yeah, I just think it's it's just all sets up to be a slow clock killing game. Well, they couldn't they couldn't sustain drives. I mean, against the Jets, that's part of the issue is that they just weren't efficient. They hit a couple deep balls, scored,

and then the Jets were just so bad that it didn't even matter. It's pretty wild. All right, bets number two from me is going to be the Carolina Panthers, over 20.5 points. This is readily available out there. Minus 110 on DraftKings. I mean, the game environment is surprisingly going to be really good. I think we know what we like and we've seen historically from Brian Dayball and Ben McAdoo on the other side as well, likes to be aggressive and you'll see no huddle and things like that.

And actually from a pace standpoint, both of these teams impressed quite a bit last week. And the Panthers just overall were playing at a breakneck pace. Definitely something that I think caught us all off guard. And much easier path here this week against a Giants defense that is still likely going to be dealing with pass rusher death. We don't know necessarily exactly what's going on with Thibodeau and Aziza Olajari at the defensive end position, but we know what's going on in the cornerback position, and it's a mess.

Starting corner, Aaron Robinson had an emergency appendectomy on Wednesday. He's out. His backup, Nick McCloud, didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday due to a hamstring injury. He's looking doubtful. They are going to be using two rookies and two current and probably soon-to-be call-ups from the practice squad in their secondary behind Adoree Jackson this week. It's not going to be a great scenario here.

Up in pace, good matchup. This is kind of the point I was talking about to the Vikings earlier. I like the Giants a little bit in this too. I probably lean Panthers, but I just kind of like the scoring. I'm having more success just kind of isolating on team totals versus game totals. So I think that I trust Baker in this passing game. I think they want to get more out of Christian McCaffrey.

I think the matchups with Robbie and DJ Moore on the outside are going to be a problem with this secondary. So give me the Panthers over 20 and a half. Yeah. No, it's – see, I look at this and I struggle a little bit because of all the points that you made were great, but their offense for like, I mean, like what three quarters of that, that Browns game was, was not humming. You know, they, they looked, they looked disastrous. I mean, there was like some really, really bad times.

And so I don't know, that's kind of what I get worried about. I think that you're right. And I think that this probably goes over. You probably get 21 or 24 points. My concern is just that like, you know, what if we haven't seen the floor? Like if they don't turn that around, this total is probably 17 or 17. It's what Matt Rule said. Hey, we average 7.7 yards per play for 35 minutes.

Why are you on me right now? This actually ties into my bet and both of us can get there noonan but absolutely my second bet is i like the giants minus one and a half uh and it strictly comes down to we know what they're going to do and yes they are not talented and they are less talented given all the injuries you mentioned but we also know as we mentioned with the titans last week winkink Martindale, highest blitz rate in the preseason. Wink Martindale, week one, third highest blitz rate in the league. He's going to blitz Baker Mayfield's faceoff.

And Baker Mayfield against the Blitz last year, 31st among all quarterbacks in completion rate. And under pressure in week one, three of nine for a 33% completion rate. So I just don't trust Mayfield. I don't trust Matt Rule. I don't trust Matt Rule. I don't trust the entire offense. You don't trust your boy, Ben? Well, Ben did what Ben does.

Ben ran out 11 personnel and was quick-hitting passing, which could bode well for Christian McCaffrey to have an increased target share and dump-offs, thus allowing the Panthers to get there. But I certainly don't trust Baker Mapa, who has historically gotten worse year to year under pressure. I think what you saw last week, Connor, is a lot of Miles Garrett, right? When we think about what the Browns defense does well, they're built for the things that matter, good corners, great pass rush, and he was disruptive. And Ike Ikuonu got baptized in a very public forum last week and could not get his hands on the guy for a little bit.

And obviously, I think you had – we could talk about the narrative aside, but you know that that Browns defense was pumped to get at him with all the stuff going on in the offseason. So I think this defense is a different scenario, what's going on on the Giants side this week with all the injuries going on in the off season. So I think this defense is a different scenario. What's going on on the giant side this week with all the injuries in the secondary, again, if they don't have their starting pass rushers,

I think that's a problem this week as well. So I very much think that we could both get there because like I said, I, it's a coin toss to me, just this game and who wins. So I'm taking in a game environment that I expect to maybe go over. I want to get the fewer points as possible and that's the panther side of it because i think the game is just kind of a

coin flip so yeah well i have no problem with the giants winning this football game and would not be surprised but you know if we can get there in a 24 21 or 27 24 uh everyone wins and we uh we're all happy so no problem with that at all. Connor, take us home. Number three. All right. Number three, going at your New England Patriots. I'm taking the under 20 and a half points. I mean, they're facing off against the Steelers and I was pretty impressed with

their defense last week. Finished six in EPA, seventh, first to pass good at limiting big plays against a team. That's one of the best in the league and creating them in Cincinnati. Now, TJ watt, obviously a loss. How much does that factor in? You know, that's a, that's one of the best in the league and creating them in Cincinnati. Now, TJ Watt, obviously a loss.

How much does that factor in? You know, that's a, that's a serious question here, but if we're looking at like this game state and kind of what we saw in New England, you know, last week you know, I just don't really see these teams really getting to 20, like either of them. And, you know, at this point, I think with the way the Patriots are playing, you know,

they're going to probably want to run the ball here. They're going to play slow. I mean, last week against Miami, New England, With the way the Patriots are playing, they're going to probably want to run the ball here. They're going to play slow. I mean, last week against Miami, New England just 30th in EPA, 28th to pass EPA. None of their receivers can separate, which we knew. Jacoby Myers is like their number one. Devontae Parker is just dead. Kendrick Bourne doesn't even play anymore. So that says what you want about him.

So I expect a lot of clock training here, a lot of unsuccessful plays. I would be very, very surprised if the Patriots are able to score more than two touchdowns and a field goal here. So I think that getting the rights out of 20 feels good to me. I would just be very surprised if this game results in much of anything because you have just two bad, bad offenses against two. I think the Patriots' defense is actually okay, honestly. I think that they're fine.

So, I mean, the Steelers played a worse defense, had overtime and they passed for 194 yards. They averaged 4.4 yards per play. Like the, the Patriots might be ugly and this doesn't go against your bet, but I think the Patriots win this one,

walking away single-handedly by their defense. You give the rough and you get the hell out of the way. Like that's, that's all this game needs. Right. Like a 17, 10 or a 20, you know, 17, 2014 game, maybe, maybe 20, even 10. Like the Steelers have absolutely nothing going for them. Nothing. And when the Pats get up, like, what are they going to do? You think they're really going to spread the ball out and try and force,

you know, like those quick options, they're just going to run the ball. So like, you know, this game is going to be very, very deflated here. And sorry, Noonan, that I'm going against your paths. But in a way, I think that they still probably do win. Yeah, I think that they probably do as well. I mean, historically, we've called Pittsburgh, Foxborough East waiting for Tom Brady to retire. And they could put a statue outside of former Heinz Field for Tom since that was his home away from home for a long time and some big games but obviously a very different dynamic now without Roethlisberger and Brady and it's Mac Jones and and Mitchell Trubisky we get Mitchell Trubisky

in prime time next week on Thursday night which is exciting we could talk about that one but uh yeah I'm with you like it's hard to be really bullish on the Patriots offense at this point and to Dago's point I think that they could still win hard to be really bullish on the Patriots offense at this point. And to Dago's point, I think that they could still win and cover your bet here on the under because it could just be a slow slog. 17-13, 20-17, something like that is probably the best-case scenario on the Steeler side offensively. So, yeah, I don't know. The Mac stuff is not great.

I mean, obviously back spasms, and now he's sick and all sorts of stuff. So it feels like in whatever they got going on in this new offense, he could probably use as many reps as possible. But, hey, here we are, and you're probably on the right side of that. It's not necessarily a bet that I would want to make, but I understand your thought process behind it. I like how we're getting wonky here, some team totals. So I'm going to layer in a teaser for you this week.

Two-team, six-point teaser. Doing it properly for the most part, staying within the three and the seven. I'm not teasing up. I'm taking actually favorites here. I'm going to take the Browns as a pick, home against the Jets, and I am taking the Niners down under the three at two and a half against Seattle. The Jets suck.

Under 17, again again is another play again i cannot i cannot not bet that if they are going to post the jets at 17 or 17 and a half i will take the under 19 total probably all season i did last year i think it was six and one on the weeks that i played it we're one and oh so far in in 2022 um there were audible mike white chance last week um we just talked about the problems that baker mayfield had with this browns defense this jets offensive line is going to have all those problems as well it's going to be really ugly there i mean the corners to match up on the outside with some of the things that the jets can do well if things were to go well for them i don't expect them to do so pocket's going to collapse it's going to be a problem we know how the browns want to play football control the clock run the ball um they

take care of business here san francisco look the seattle side was really bad in the second half right like i feel like they used all the good plays in the first half it might be kind of the jared golf scenario where what connor was talking about the top like the scripted stuff at the top worked out really well and then it kind of collapsed after and i think the niners are a team that we thought coming in the season are significantly better if i can get them at home t's under the three i feel pretty good about it i don't want to take anything really out of the chicago san fran game last week do the conditions actually think we saw some decent play out of Trey Lance, all things considered. I think the defensive side and what they want to do,

stopping the run, I think Seattle probably wants to get back to the run more. I think the Niners can slow that down quite a bit. So I like this teaser, minus 120 on DraftKings. I don't have an opinion on either game. I'm curious to see how the 49ers play call this week because we're truly going to see if Shanahan trusts Trey Lance or if this is literally a month-long leash and then we get garoppolo because i really think that's in play

if he performs as he did again everyone makes the weather excuse but justin fields was just fine justin fields actually uh had the longest time from snap to throw because he was scrambling around in that monsoon making plays and extending plays trey lance didn't do that at all so i i don't know what's going to happen with Trey Lance, but I will say for the Browns, all I know is that we are dropping a David and Joku Connor. If he doesn't catch passes in this game, like last week,

I understand Caroline has athletes that can match up against tight ends. No big deal, but the jets allow the six most receptions to opposing tight ends last year and five receptions to Baltimore on Lamar Jackson, 17 completions. This is the last stand. If he doesn't do anything, everyone can drop Dave and joke who everywhere. He's not the breakout tight end we hope for. Yeah, this is it. I also, I like the jets, the jets under 17. Uh, it's been like, it goes 16 and a half, 17, you know, back and forth. We grabbed a 17, but I couldn't make it an official play because you know, if

it's not 17, I'm not going to tout something that you guys can't bet on. Um, so I like this teaser here. I think the Browns are just, I think they're going to, they're going to smack the jets here. I just have such a little faith in the jets offense at this point. Uh, and then the Niners, I, yeah, I don't really take too much away from it. I think that Lance did make a good throw, but to Daigle's point fields ended up being okay. But if you look, go back and watch, like, and we were watching the game together, Daigle, but the rain went like in and out. So if we look at Justin Fields was way worse than Lance in the first half.

Like it was, he was the worst quarterback that I've seen in the last couple of years in the first half. It was pathetic. But then in the second half, like they cleared up, there was like no rain for like a good 30 to 45 minutes. Third quarter. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. Third quarter. Right. Second half, third quarter cleared up there was like no rain for like a good 30 to 45 minutes third quarter yeah yeah yeah third quarter right second half third quarter cleared up fields crushed it he did it made some awesome plays and then at the end and then lance had like one to two bad drives and he like just sucked made some bad throws rain started to come back the last like five minutes of the game it was like the worst rain of the day like at that point just pack it up like we we knew that there was nothing was going to happen there. So it was interesting. I'm,

I'm interested to watch both quarterbacks going forward, but I am willing to forgive Trey Lance for one to two more weeks. And after that, it's, you know, Jimmy G is probably going to be getting the start, I think, honestly.

And I was very pro Lance, but I mean, it just can't be this bad. If you told me to lean the direction, I think Lance goes nuclear this week. But again, I want to see the play calling. I think it's, it's going to be something we have to monitor. Again, like I want to not lose myself in week one because we know there could be overreaction.

It's like, what do we think of these teams coming in? And I know that we thought that the, the range of outcomes for the Niners was vast and all hinging on Trey Lance. We all agree that the talent, the lack of talent on Seattle's side is a problem. And I don't want to get caught up in an emotional game at home against your former longtime quarterback and what we saw in that to think that the Seattle Seahawks are anything different than what I thought they were from a talent standpoint coming in. And it is a talent disadvantage in this game.

And again, working under the three, I feel pretty good about it. So this is what you get to move the line this year. You get some team titles, you get some teasers, you get some, you know,

you get a little bit of Seattle turn DK Metcalf into Jameson Crowder. He had a 4.4 depth of target, like unreal. And they won the game. Unreal. Yeah. It's tough to see. So, unreal. And they won the game. Unreal. Yeah, it's tough to see. So, yeah. The Broncos lost the game.

I mean, they did fumble twice in the goal line. Like, they averaged over six yards per play. They're going to be just fine. I mean, I had Seattle under 17 and a half, and I turned it off at halftime because I'm like, it was 17 right away. And watched some shows with my lovely wife. Lovely wife. Happy birthday today as well. Told her I'd give her a shout-out on the show. trots dead like it was 17 right away and watched some shows with my lovely wife lovely wife happy

birthday today as well told her i give her a shout out show um she's the best so we just started doing something else turn it on five minutes left in the game we're still at 17 so uh good sweat and i worked out but yeah i cannot believe that that happened and i don't want to pull forward anything Seattle wise. So yeah. Diggle bring us home. We saw what the Cardinals did. I guess we saw that last week and I expect the same. It's the same injury report. It's the same lack of talent on this offense and the same coaching. We know how this is going to go.

I don't know why this game is being played. The Raiders only rushed or defenders on 43% of their defensive snaps. And still recorded the fourth highest pressure rate of week one against the Chargers O-line. We respect highly more than Arizona's. At least last year when he was under pressure, Murray dumped it off for the seventh highest completion rate. But in week one with Endred Zacherts, Marquise Brown running deep routes, and the offense being schemed around Greg Dortch,

Kyler Murray was terrible. Four of 13 for two yards per attempt under duress. It's going to be the same thing. Whereas we saw how the Chargers attacked this Cardinals defense. And yes, the Cardinals defense blitz Patrick Holmes at the highest rate, as we talked about earlier, something you don't do. And if they choose to do that again,

we know that while he isn't Patrick Holmes, Derek Carr was just fine against the Blitz last year. 64% completion rate, $9 per attempt. The Raiders, I think, are going to pick how they score and just do that every single drive in this game. This is the one that I'm so mad at that I didn't get down on and look at in market last week because I told people in the article to do it. It was available at two and a half. I thought that there, I knew that the Chiefs were going to kick their ass, thought we were at least going to get to two and a half. I thought that there, I knew that the chiefs were going to kick their ass,

thought we were at least going to get to three and a half. And I'm looking now I'm surprised because this is up to six last night and all day today. And there's been some buyback with the five, five and a half are back. And I feel really good about five and a half, six. The total continues increasing too.

And that's why everyone's talking about for DFS. And I think the Cardinals are just the easiest team to fade. Like the easiest. If there were ever a game for Josh Jacobs, it's this one. Yeah. I took a Devante Adams 83 and a half this morning. And an hour later, it was 93 and a half. I just can't see a scenario where they are able to, to slow him down.

Connor, any leans on this one? No, it's, uh, it's tough for me to imagine a scenario where the Cardinals are just like, you know, keeping up with the Raiders here, just bad, how bad their defense is. And I think that was kind of the whole, I guess, theory behind the Cardinals is that their offense would be good enough to keep up with other teams. But I mean, if they're not like they're just, they're sunk. There's two injured right now. I don't, I don't blame them at all. They just have no one to go to. And we know cliff Kingsbury isn't a good enough coach to change his game

plan. He's going to do the same shit as he did last year. And it's going to be Greg Dorch for the highest target share on the team again. Yeah. I mean, cliff Kingsbury. Now I guess we're running into like someone I I'm going to tweet out his

full record, including college. He's like, not a good coach. Like, I don't know. He was never been a good winning coach. I don't understand where where he came from and why and you uh to to bring an influx into uh you know i guess a new way of offense that's been

the horizontal rate you must have missed the freakonomics episode that discusses how looking good gives you more opportunities in life. That's pretty much how he got to where he is. How do you think I'm here? I mean, geez, let's be honest. So yeah, no,

it's a good question. And, uh, take them. It's a good point. We haven't seen anything historically from him. That's shown his ability to adapt to anything outside of what he thinks is his offense.

And we know the good offenses and the good teams are like, Hey, I'm going to, what are you giving me? And here's what my talent is. I'm going to adjust to those two things. And yeah, he doesn't do it.

Quick note for fantasy purposes only to, you know, Benjamin didn't play until the third, the second drive of the third quarter when the chief scored and they took a 30 to seven lead. Like this is all James Connors backfield. But even though we already figured that, at least we did get reassurance with

Benjamin playing 22 snaps, Darrell Williams being active and playing zero, that Benjamin is also the stash player we want. But he doesn't have any kind of role. This is all James Conner. It's a problem because I have kind of a little bit of a zero RB-ish squad that's running up against Conner this week. And

the squad, the zero RBsh squad. That's running up against Connor this week and the squad, the zero RBs are zero. The Raiders could go up 40 nothing. And we see, you know, Benjamin playing. That's fine. You know,

Benjamin's going to start for me this week against Connor. So already at week two, you're not pretty. The team is not good. Yeah. It's a Kyler Murray, like 20 round pick. It's not good.

It's not good. So, all right, gents, that should do it as always. Rem's not good. It's not good. All right, gents. That should do it. As always, reminder, nohouseadvantage.com. Check it out. Promo code 444.

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