Move The Line - NFL Wild Card Weekend Prop Bets

Episode Date: January 13, 2023

NFL Wild Card Weekend Prop Bets from Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo. The trio share their top Wild Card player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro3:59 Connor Prop Bet #1 7:16 Pat Prop Bet #1  13:55 Ryan Prop Bet #1 17:11 Connor Prop Bet #2 25:36 Ryan Prop Bet #231:42 Connor Prop Bet #3 29:44 Pat Prop Bet #234:48 Ryan Prop Bet #337:04 Connor Prop Bet #440:06 Pat Prop Bet #345:44 Ryan Prop Bet #448:57 Q+A Props1:02:11 OutroGet 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to the Move the Line Prop Drop Show. I'm Ryan Noonan, back for Super Wild Card Weekend to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football. And that's Player Props. Live here, 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday, all the way through the Super Bowl, giving you our favorite props and taking your questions.

So if you're hanging out with us now live on YouTube, we appreciate it. Subscribe so you don't miss a show. Smash that like button and jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite look is for the Wild Card Weekend. Very different show than the last couple of weeks where we were talking pre-show. We just had a lot of guesses, likes,

things that we were speculating coming into the market. And it's been a pretty fruitful week so far. They got into some of the markets pretty early and not everything's out there, but a lot is out there. And hopefully we can give you a lot of plays this week. So joining me here as always, fresh off of, have you gone to identify your car yet? Because Connor Allen, they found your car. I know it's breaking news.

The people are waiting on the edge of their seats, you know, about this whole fiasco. For those who don't know, my car was stolen last week and I thought it was not going to be lost forever. I get a letter in the mail today from the pound. I did not get a call from the police from the pound saying, hey, we have your car. I call them. I'm like, hey, you know, is my car there? Like, why didn't the police call me?

You know, are they doing their jobs? You know, essentially not. They just towed it, put it there and said whatever. They've had it for like a week. I never even knew. So I got this letter in the mail, like literally snail mail alerted me that my car was there. So now it's a whole disaster because I had to get the insurance to go out there and like check it because who knows what happened in the actual car. I don't even want to look at it. So the good news is, as I told you on the other show, my golf clubs are in there. So now they

gave me some money to buy new ones, which is much, much needed considering I was playing with actual woods for wood. Not a lie, Pat. Connor is playing with just literally woods. And it's been a super tough scene. And that was the exciting part of the car getting stolen. It was like, all right, we're going to parlay this into actually Connor upgrading his equipment and getting out there a little bit more. But obviously here as well in the spot

is always the man from the Mayo Media Network, Pat Mayo Experience. It's Pat Mayo. Hi, I have one prop. I really liked this week, which means, you know,

it's going to lose. That's how it always works. But yeah, full, full slate here. So really, really excited about, you know,

all that we can get into Connor reference real quick. So just so you know, two episodes of move the line each week, both here on YouTube, both the podcast form game previews on Wednesday night, Connor, John Dangle and myself around seven 30 Eastern every Wednesday. If you subscribe to the YouTube channel,

you get notifications for that along with all the, all the other great four for four YouTube content still rolling into, you know, underdog drafts, the FFPC stuff covering other sports there as well. And that actually lets you know the great time too. $19, $19 for a betting subscription at 4 for 4 from now through the end of February. So you're not getting a lot, right?

It's typically $240 for the full season. You're just getting a little taste. But $19 gets you access to everything on the site, the Discord, which again, that is more than $19 for a week, in my opinion. But we're still covering MMA, college hoops, NBA.

If you're in any of the Pick'Em sites, we have specific channels and posted plays there as well. We're still covering DFS, John Daigle, TJ Hernandez, providing all the DFS content in there as well. So again, $19, 444.com slash plans to check it out again through the end of February. All right, gentlemen, live lines,

things that people can tell why they watch and hang out. Again, if you're hanging out, get in chat. Connor, you can get us started. First play, super wild card weekend. Yeah, first play. I'm going to roll with evan ingram under four and a half receptions uh you can play this up to minus 130 she's gone under this number in the majority of games this season already uh but now runs into the chargers he only had one catch

on three targets last time uh to them and that was with trevor lawrence throwing the ball 39 times i think this is because uh safety derwin james is capable of shutting down some of the best weapons or at least kind of slowing them down when he wants to. Only three tight ends have gone over four receptions all season against the Chargers. That was Travis Kelsey and David Njoku. They held George Kittle to one reception, Evan Ingram himself, Kyle Pitts, if that counts, you know, to two receptions. On top of all this, I expect the Jaguars to skew a bit run heavier given the matchup and have a little bit less overall play volume against this Chargers team than they did last time where they had just insane play volume because the chargers couldn't sustain any drives so i do expect a little bit less volume a little bit more run heavy

um and just less overall volume to a guy like ingram so give me the under on his four and a half receptions pat where you at on that uh passing game i don't know and that's the that's been the jags offense is the hardest thing for me to figure out this week. How do I want to attack it? I want to attack it with one over somewhere and a bunch of unders. And it really does seem like, and I know that the quality of opposition that they've played over the past month and a half hasn't been very good at the quarterback position. The Chargers defense has just markedly improved over the past two months from where it was

when these two teams played hell back in week three, it's way better since it wasn't week 10. Once they started to get all of their guys back, they can generate pressure again. As Connor mentioned, Derwin James is back and kind of take out any tight end. The issue with Ingram in this spot is, is Derwin James going to be the one who's on him?

Like he's essentially a slot receiver. He's not really a tight end. Like maybe he's used to, I don't know, maybe to try to shut down the run because that's the one part of the chargers offense that hasn't improved is their rushing defense or pass defense through the roof the etn should be able to run all over them so i like the under of four and a half that's a big number to get to in a playoff game the only issue i would have is if Bosa is 100% and this pass rush is really good. We know that the offensive line of the Jags is pretty banged up. The sustained pressure from the Chargers should be able to get through.

Does that just lead everyone to a lot of underneath routes? Which to my mind is, I mean, you can say Christian Kirk. I don't believe that to be so much the case. That's more Zay Jones, Evan Ingram in my mind. So that would be my one hesitation on the ingram under i think we see a lot of underneath routes on both sides in this game especially now with the mike williams news but uh yeah actually you know having again i my brain is broken i watch football very differently than i did say three months ago during james doesn't do

that often uh it would be matchup specific um he basically is like a third linebacker uh oftentimes so they can do that with him they will do that with him uh against the likes of a travis kelsey uh is very specific matchup because that's kind of someone that you game plan to shut down but again like to pat's point the secondary is in the defense in general is markedly improved so i think finding unders here makes a lot of sense. And I think Evan Ingram is a good spot too. I like the price. And so, yeah, I didn't tail, but I like the play.

I could see it getting there. How about you, Pat? What's the first one for you? Number one for me, a prop which has hit an eight of nine games so far this season. Is this the one that you really like that's going to go under? Yeah. Trenton Irwin over five 5.5 receiving yards. Doesn't that seem way too low?

It does. I have really no more color to it than that. If he catches a pass, we're there. I'm surprised he's even lined, to be honest. He is. I mean, in the past, hell, three's just see i said he's he's covered this number in eight of nine games so far this season and if he doesn't play then you know it's a push so who cares um i mean sometimes he only sees one target his worst game of the year was

against the bucks one catch for five yards that would be devastating in this spot but outside of that one for 12 last week three for 45 the week before that two for 58 the week before that they just keep basically everything they wanted to do with hayden hearst i know that hayden hearst was injured over this time but he was back last week that he just runs like this seam route down the middle or they use him at the stick so those are the two routes that he runs he's gonna get his two to three targets he catches one you hit the you win the bet so i'm in yeah you've seen uh some fluctuation in uh in route participation of late but again like we've seen 24 47 22 so again like he's not gonna be out there a ton but you're you know he's out there it's like it's just the only player you're gonna watch when he's out there's

like throw it to him now throw it to him now because it's probably limited snaps but uh i think these are where some of the edges are still it's been a harder year for Traditional props connor and i have talked about this a lot offline uh it's been sharper i still Think when you find some of these edges and we've done it a lot here in the show and it Pats done a ton with like crappy tight ends yeah tommy tremble ian thomas juwan johnson like there's Been a slew of them all year they're posted like 11 and a half like just make a catch and you're good yeah whereas like you're the lines are so much sharper on like the elite players they're more involved like the volume bet into those players is sharper too so that you know books can even manipulate and fix lines to be better as the week progresses so i

still think there is you're probably your best edge is still in these kind of like off-market guys connor any any Irwin takes here? Yeah. He's one of those guys who you look up every game and you're like, Oh yeah, he caught another pass. It's just like one of those things like one, once or twice a game, you're like, Oh, it makes sense. You know?

So yeah, five and a half. It's a good number there. We had a question who plays for place for the Bengals. So, you know, if curious, there can always always Google and we do get a lot of questions on which teams players play for. And I always find that pretty funny, but Hey, can always, always Google. And we do get a lot of questions on which teams players play for. And I always find that pretty funny, but Hey, I get it. Yeah. I get in the habit of just posting, even if it's Josh Allen,

I put the team abbreviation next to, to it, just to make, be safe. Cause you never know. People just want to, can I throw one out here? Cause I haven't seen it. Maybe you guys have, cause I'm just looking at DraftKings Sportsbook in three, sixbook in 365 and i don't see it there do you see any receiving prop numbers on ray ray mcleod oh i think we did let me see he's on prize picks yeah he's he's uh half a yard yeah i like the over by the way yeah half a yard minus 105 draft kings plus 100 on mgm yeah and past five games.

I mean, that's without Debo out, so his route participation would be a little bit higher with Debo out of the lineup. But, you know, he's had at least double digits in four of his past five games. The one he didn't was the Washington game. He had one target, didn't catch it. That was the end of it.

I mean, that's happened a bunch of times this year. It happened against Washington. It happened against Arizona. It happened against Atlanta. Other than that that like he's been over this number in almost every game this season three games this season he hasn't been over that number I love I love this just complete ancillary pieces uh way to start the show is that over on a half a yard for a receiver to start just absolute fire Pat I'm putting in my prize picks now ray ray mcleod over 0.5 yards wherever the hell that is more and uh get some trenton erwin in my life

they offer that one oh yeah five and a half years there we go 200 to win 600 let's have it uh james is asking in the chat where can we play some of these prop bets we're talking about all the domestics um you can't talk about offshores maybe you have access to offshores or you know uh whatever you know pphs that you like we also can talk about you might see some of these if you're in a non-legal states california texas um wherever else you could be that these might be on price picks or they might be on vivid or um underdog whatever you want to do. If you need links for that too,

you can hit us up in the chat. We can get you links to get started on those sites as well. The pickup sites, you got to parlay them. That's kind of the piece that they have there. Yeah, that's the rub. But it's okay. You can still make EV decisions. And sometimes you'll have a number that's like on a book minus 150

and the same line is hung over at you know price picks so it kind of will i think alleviate some of that a little bit yeah and they they consistently post bad lines i posted it last week we had a massive win uh they were posted thank you about that yeah i saw you tweet it i was like oh fuck yeah let's go hell yeah you gotta sweat the kirk cousins one a little bit kirk cousins made you work a little bit for that one because he almost went over in the first half yeah yeah i played the foreplay with it i won like four grand or i won 4 500 bucks i think let's go let's go yeah no problem it was actually paulson messaged me it was like wow i don't really think the vikers are gonna play much he used his free entry on and i'm like paulson this is hammer time bro like this is like they're

not gonna play like they might play a little bit like the first half but like these lines are set like it's a full game so even if you lose like this is a plus ev bet like you make this bet 10 out of 10 times but anyways point is prize picks listed vikings players no domestic had it no one else had it so those were great unders um they consistently post stuff that's nowhere else and they post off early so a lot of stuff to take advantage of there even if you're getting a little bit hacked with the price uh i will say ray ray mcleod plus 105 i'm gonna make i'm gonna step on your first one noonan just because i found it right now ray ray mcleod will be my second play over five yards plus 105 on beth 365 yeah i think the juice piece too like i find that a lot in in the way that so the tackle market's a little bit different because like the bands of which a tackle number can fall within is a little bit more compressed.

So you'll see lines open at like minus 150 at times because obviously it's just the narrow outcomes, but you can go and get that same number at a, at a pick'em site. And it's like, sometimes I'll choose to not actually bet that one outright because I don't want to lay the wood and i'll just add it to you know a price picks bet or something like that so there are different ways to go about it and uh all right first one for me is still available posted it the other day for subscribers at four for four it's up a little bit josh allen i'm still going to take it 50 and a half rushing yards. I think basically across the board, still available, you know, varying juice, but still like to play. Checks a lot of boxes.

We see a spike in rushing yards for quarterbacks during the playoffs. That's been kind of a narrative that Connor and I have talked about for the five years we've been doing this together. And actually our own TJ Hernandez, who does our DFS stuff, did some work on this last season. 28 quarterbacks dating back to 2000. That averaged at least 30 yards per game in the regular season. So these guys are naturally already predisposed to running a little bit.

Those 28 quarterbacks average six and a half more yards per game during the playoffs. So this is pretty simple. Games that matter more, you got an athletic quarterback who already runs a little bit more. They're more apt to extend plays and drives and just get out of the pocket. And we see a ton of design runs for Josh Allen. Anyway, his attempt number here is juiced at eight and a half, even nine and a half in some spots. So we're getting nine carries from Josh Allen here. Feel really good about 50 yards. And then also Miami is the other, checks the other boxes that we've liked this season on rushing quarterbacks. High man-to-man rate and they blitz a ton. They are seventh in man-to-man rate. They are second in blitz rate.

They blitzed 55% of Josh Allen's drawbacks in week 16. It's an insane rate. They must have thought there was an edge there very different than what they did in week three, even though they are a high blitz rate team. And Miami has allowed the second most quarterback rushing yards in the league this season, only trailing the Lions. So we've seen this in Josh Allen's short career. He's gone over 54 yards in five of six playoff games in his career, 92, 86. Even if this game gets out of hand, I think there's enough design runs. I still think Miami tries to bring pressure. Allen ducks out, and I think he topped this in one run last time they played in week 16. So Josh Allen, over 50 and a half rushing yards.

Connor, are you with me? I like it. My only concern is that Skylar Thompson is so bad. Yeah. He can still get there in the first half. I'm just like worried that he gets like, you know, does really well in the first half and they hand the ball off 30 times or whatever. But I mean. They never do that though.

I know. They never, ever, ever do that. A little bit more this year though than previous years. Yeah. But yeah, I know. It's just like, I just have like PTSD from watching scholar Thompson enough that like, I'm worried that they're not gonna move the ball at all. And so that's where I look at Sarah.

But otherwise every other thing says it's a fantastic play. And I think it's a good look. Pat, any thoughts to the quarterback rushing narrative? I had it with you. I was looking at him and Daniel Jones and Tyler Huntley. So there we go. Yeah.

I think Gino's another one in that. Gino probably falls under the threshold of quarterbacks that average 30 rushing yards. I actually want to ask TJ maybe an off season project for him to kind of maybe lower the bar of average rushing yards per game and see kind of where that falls into play. I think Gino's probably right around 15, 16.

That's pretty much where he's lined every week. I think that could be a spot for him too. All right, Connor, back to you. Number two. Yeah. My second one is going to be Elijah Mitchell overs. This is looking at 39 and a half at this point. I absolutely love it. Niners right now, nine and a half, 10 point favorites against the Seahawks. It's going to be a ton of rain. Seahawks run defenses have been getting wrecked as absolute like as of late. And in terms of Mitchell versus CMC, you know, I think there's some concern like, Oh, see, Oh, Mitchell won't even play until it's a blowout or anything like that. I don't think that's really true. I mean, the four games we've seen with Christian McCaffrey, he's outrushed him in every

single one. And these out carried them in the first two that came off injured reserve last week was out carried 15 to five and did not play at all. Once the game was a blowout, it was a Jordan Mason who came in. So I think he's a pretty heavy part of their initial game plan. It'll obviously be Christian McCaffrey starting. You might be able to get a better number live, but I still think you're in this spot. Like Elijah Mitchell has shown enough explosiveness in a great matchup. Like I could see him easily getting 10 plus carries in the spot. Um, like we've seen before. So I think that you can only play the over 39 and a half rushing yards, but I played a bunch of same game parlays with, you know, Mitchell 60 plus, um, you know, Mitchell, um, you know, even like, you know, 70 plus and a

touchdown and stuff like that on MGM is available. Uh, and you're able to get like plus 500 plus 600 on those. Um, Sam sees bringing up that the rain might not happen. I mean, I don't even really care that much about the rain. I mean, that's just the throw in that, you know, maybe they'll skew even more run heavy, but I do expect the Niners just come out and run the ball a ton against this Seattle defense.

Love it. I took it too. Pat, any thoughts on this running game? I'm in. Yeah. There's so many reasons that it makes a ton of sense. Yeah.

Unless the Seahawks get frisky here, which I don't think they would do until late. So I'm not too concerned about it. Right. Yeah. I, I don't know how to really describe the subscribers, like how deep you need to be in on this,

but I think it's a really good play. Like, I don't know. I were like, you know, whether it's alts, whether it's same game parlays, I just think that maybe add an extra half unit sprinkling on some

upside outcomes of, you know, 50 plus or 60 plus at this point, because I mean, there's plenty of chances here where he rips a big one or he gets like 10 to 15 carries that point. He doesn't even need a big one. He can get there anyway. So let me try to build this out. Just I always like this exercise. And the fact that I've been doing it live on the show, I think I've won two of the three weeks doing it, building up these same game parlays, which is always a lot of... Let's see.

Yeah, over 50 rushing yards is plus 175, so let's take that. And what else can we go to? Attempts. They're not offering him for attempts, so that's no longer good. Receiving props. I'm going to check my guy RayRayMcLeod onto there.

If you go... RayRayMcLeod over half a yard receiving and elijah mitchell 50 or more rushing yards is plus 450 oh yeah see that's already nice and fat you know that's like i mean when i get greedy and add colby parkinson to it you know we're good to go oh that's awesome i think i think he's live for a touchdown i don't normally bet anytime touchdown props but that might be on there too and that's a fun one but um i mean again it's a little bit more plus 280 for an anytime touchdown wow that's i mean it seems aggressive yeah that's actually not a bad look i mean it was right around that last week too it was i thought like 50 yards and a touchdown for elijah mitch plus 525. If we add in Ray, Ray, Ray McLeod.

I'm going to scroll here. So, I mean, I'm going to play. If you just go just pure yardage, 50 yards over a half yard and Parkinson over 18 and a half, it's 10 to 1. I like that. And then once we keep that and reuse those selections. And then we add the anytime touchdown to it, I bet you it pays like 25 to one or something like that. That would be my,

that would be my guess. Where's stupid. Anytime touchdown at touchdown score, Elijah Mitchell. Anytime. What about, what about 25 to one? Even better.

Oh, getting spicy out there now. Getting spicy. Oh, a free, free now. Getting spicy. Oh, a free, free 20 bet credit. Let's have it. Oh,

I love that. It's awesome. And then I can parlay that same game parlay with the one that I want to play with like Trenton Irwin and. To the moon. All it takes is one play. You'll be live literally the whole game because all you're betting on these guys it's like a one play thing so you're like you'll never be dead

literally until the end of the game and they'll go over for that's how it works yeah probably but it's a couple of these it pays for the uh yeah i want to ask you i pace for those uh those cryogenic freezer visits i saw that you took. Oh, you saw it. Have you been to a cryo chamber? I have not. Yesterday was my first day in a cryo chamber. How was that? Well, I have, I mean, I've probably said this a million times, but I tore my calf not too long ago. So I've torn it twice in the past two and a half years, all from running outside.

So now I just don't run outside anymore. I run on a treadmill. Either way, it really caused like an imbalance in both my legs. So like my right glute became really, really weak and it's led to like hip flexor, like just my general inactivity because I sit down at a desk all day. It shortened my hip flexors and just really made an imbalance on my right hip. So my right hip has just been really sore. And with the amount of golf that I played last year for the first time in like 20 years, that it just really took a,

like it hurts when I wake up in the morning. And so I've been working on that, like rehabbing it, doing every sort of like exercise stretch and it's getting better and it's getting stronger. I went to the cryo thing yesterday and it's just like gone. That's, that's incredible.

Yeah. It essentially zaps every bit of inflammation out of your body. Yeah, I'm a big fan of, well, she's kind of a weirdo. Dave Asprey, he's the bulletproof coffee guy. If you've ever heard of bulletproof coffee, people think of it as like putting butter in your coffee. It's not actually just putting like butter in your coffee. There's a lot of other pieces to it,

but he's just kind of like a life hack guy and he's some of a work event years ago and read a couple of uh Asprey's books and he's been like really big on like the cold shower thing for years I know that's like taken off and like the you know these same things where you you know jump in the in the cold and blast all that stuff and all the good benefits so yeah i'm definitely open to those life hacks especially as we get older and things start to decay even if we are moving um it just doesn't happen uh like like it used to so yeah no 100 like the big thing about it is like i don't like cold showers i don't like like. Oh, it's a miserable experience. Polar bear plunges. Like it sucks. This is three minutes and you don't get wet.

Yeah, you can tell me on that for sure. That's way better. The polar plunge stuff is crazy. I've done one of those before and I got offered to do another one this year. And I was like, absolutely not. I was like, I'll rather just donate the money. Like whatever, you know,

like I'll pay the money and not do the plunge. That's fine. Yeah. Cold shower thing is great. I think from a health benefit standpoint, you just kind of like progressively just kind of slowly at the end of your shower, dip it down a little bit and, you know, just see how long you can stand and do a little bit more the next time. And, um, I think that there are health benefits to it as well. I,

I went on a golf trip last March. I'm going again this March. I went to hit balls like two weeks before, because obviously I live in Chicago. I can't golf through the winter. I was embarrassingly sore after hitting a bucket of balls after just taking a couple months off. I was still sore on the flight to Myrtle Beach, to H head and i'm i can't let that happen so i'm trying to find ways to get ahead of it because i'm not gonna go and show up to a golf um trip and be sore before it even starts because uh yeah i'm old and it sucks so i'm open i think i just heard my child fall down i have to go check on him i will will be back in 30 seconds. Yes. Do that. Priorities for sure. My child has been making many appearances on shows of late.

So I understand that a lot of composure there for Pat, considering his child might be just laying on the floor when he turns the corner. So Pat's a pros pro. So it makes sense. All right. He already gave us his second anyway. So he is fine to be skipped.

He gave us the Ray, Ray McLeod play as an official play love pat leaning into this uh just off brand 10 snap receiver niche that he seems to have found here so i'm gonna double dip here since we got time i'm gonna give you two tackles from the same team um because some of it the analysis is the same. And these numbers are, you just should take these. Again, MGM if you can, because the MGM numbers are off market for two Baltimore Ravens. We'll start first with Marcus Williams, safety for the Ravens.

He is available on MGM right now at minus 110, just moved from minus 105. Still an absolute hammer play. Over four and a half tackles and assists for marcus williams one of the best safeties in the league was a great acquisition for them he got hurt actually in the week five matchup against cincinnati hurt his wrist was out for two months uh let's come back and he's he's healthy we're a few weeks in um you know and again i think a wrist injury impacts too when you first come, you're probably a little reluctant. He had like a slow game, but then has been just kind of taken off.

Last time they played last week, we get seen seven tackles in that game. He's top four and a half in seven of the nine games that he's played in full the season. He has games of 12, 10. So he has ceiling. If you actually happen to play on bet three, six, five, where Pat does, Marcus Williams is a outstanding ladder opportunity because he does have ceiling. And the matchup is terrific to play volume on the Bengals side is really nice at conservative play volume here for Marcus Williams. And I have about six and a half tackles, a little shy, six and a half. So four and a half at minus one to five on MGM, a great line. Again, it Again, it's a little bit different out there in Caesars.

I think DraftKings is falling back a little bit too. Favorable scorekeeper matchup for the Ravens here. Visitors are averaging 26.2 assists per game in Cincinnati this season. That's 10 and a half more than the home team, four and a half more than league average. So that actually is pretty sticky at this time of the year. We've had nine home games. This is like a rolling three-year average as well.

So like, this is not just kind of a blimp. This is a thing for some reason, they don't want to give the visiting team credit for a full tackle and dudes just get assists. So again, I have a pretty conservative number in snaps here and I like Williams. I'm going to go with this teammate too. I'm going to give you the double dip.

Roquan Smith, over nine and a half tackles and assists. Same scorekeeper data. The other edge here is opposing linebackers at the team level are averaging 23.4 tackles and assists per game against the Bengals. Third highest mark in the league. Again, they run a ton of plays and they actually run some low ADOT stuff too.

And we saw last week they played this same team. 16 tackles for Roquan Smith. He has 11 or more in four of the past six games playing really good football. And then you have also the ability here for potential negative game scripts here. That's going to help just, you know, maybe a higher run rate in the second half,

opposing linebacker who's on the field for every snap. Nine and a half is a high number, but again, Roquan can do this. He's one of the best in the league. So MGM is plus 100 on this, which is way off market like rivers caesars dk they're all kind of in that like 130 to 150 range so mgm is off market here on your two ravens so those are two for me that fills in for for pat is your son okay he's fine and you saying that gives me a perfect same game parlay piece with Trenton Irwin. See, I don't think they let you get tackles in there.

Yeah, I just played it. Oh, did they? That's new. That's new. They have not. I've tried to do this multiple times. So that is Marcus Williams over four and a half tackles and assists. Trenton Irwin over five and a half yards.

Maybe he can tackle him on Trenton Irwin's catch. That would be great. I can't even tell you how amazing that is. That pays plus 260. You got to add Roquan Smith in there too. No, I didn't. I'm not getting greedy with that. I just have these two same game parlays that I then parlayed together.

So Williams and Irwin with Ray Ray and Elijah Mitchell, just as standard over 38 and a half that pays 13 to one. And then I can reuse that and go to am i up again because i have my third one no it's back to connor i like where you don't say i'll keep keep rolling are you okay okay you want to save it i mean you can keep rolling i feel like you're you're building some good stuff right now the listeners are probably we'll go out of order you're good go for it it's tony pollard rushing yards over 47 and a half. Like, what are we doing here? Like I haven't projected 89.

Carries for Mr. Tony. Hunky Tony Pollard. What do we got here? Rushing yards for Tony Pollard. Most on the slate. Second most on the slate. Second most on the slate behind Barkley.

16 for 85. Love it. 47 and a half. It's the same as Zeke's. I like your conviction. That's a big number. Former Chicago or future Chicago Bear. Tony Pollard.

Put that out there in the ether. Chicago Bear? Yeah. What do you think? Just going to lean into that run game. I think it's, you know, save money. Like, they need to just get a dynamic back. Montgomery's gone.

You know, it's not going to – you don't have to spend as much as you do on Saquon or something like that. They just become, like, you know, a better version of the Falcons or, you know, Ravens without a good defense. They're going to draft by John Robinson 101. I am really excited to watch how they mess it up. So far, I have not been a fan of most of Poles' moves so far, especially the Chase Claypool one is brutal.

Trading with Roquan made sense from like a cap standpoint where you had to pay him. I mean, now he's what highest paid linebacker in the league or one of them. So it's, you know, I mean, i get definitely not paying him that but um i mean they have no good players so we'll see what happens i legit think i've spent 700 so they've come on the show love it yeah i mean i'm gonna bet some real real bad football players uh this weekend now because uh because of you but i respect it i like this angle i like just this niche niche stuff all right two three four five six i know it's like 970 dollars so far so i need to hit a few of these or we're toast let's hit

someone uh all right uh pat that was three for pat we'll go back to you connor third for you uh my third one here i like kenneth Kenneth Walker under 60 and a half rushing yards. Really, my only concern here is volume. But the last time these teams met in week 15 in San Francisco, Walker's line closed below 50 yards. It was like 49 and a half. He wound up with 47 rushing yards on 12 carries. I think the current line, which is at 60,

is kind of being impacted by recency bias. Two big games in wins over the Jets, the Rams. Then they played against the Chiefs, middle and run defense. Niners, much different beast. Second and run defense DVOA, allowing 3.29 yards per carry to opposing running backs. And in the four losses the Seahawks have had this year,

Kenneth Walker has 10 carries for 17 yards, 14 carries for 26 yards, 12 carries for 47 against the Niners I mentioned, and then the master game against the Chiefs where the Seahawks decided to give him the ball 26 times despite losing, you know, the majority of the game. So I think this match was kind of nearly identical to their previous game. I think even more brisk of a blowout though, with Debo healthy with Elijah Mitchell back, uh, spreads 10 points. So, I mean, I think Walker like needs 20 carries to get here. Um, if he doesn't get 20 20 carries, he's probably not going to get there.

So I think with block concerns, the under is a solid look. Bad news for Pat. We're about to build another same-game parlay because now we have Ray-Ray McLeod. We've got... I have done better this year. I agree with Connor on the assessment, and I agree with him on the play.

In general, everything I've taken so far isn't over, which means it can't win so i don't like betting unders against guys like this because i see the spot i see how it all logically makes sense and oh kenneth walker busted a run for 55 yards it's like oh great here we go there's a few players in the league that just i don't like betting unders against because they can get there in one shot and he's one of them this is daigle's handicap as well. Connor, right.

Basically is, you know, he's a, he's a one play guy where he can, he can blow it up, even though you can basically get one and a half yards per carry for the rest of the carries. He's got that potential.

So yeah, he's in that like Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb zone. Yeah. Yeah. They're hard unders. Yeah. I get it though.

Like, you know, to Connor's point, if you feel like you have an edge in like long term you have to make that bet can't make that bet in a vacuum you have to think long term do I feel like I'm on the right side I think the process is right because otherwise you you never pull the trigger on some of these things because you can always talk yourself out of it so yeah there definitely are outs for sure but um you know I think you got

the right number because it moved pretty significantly as soon as you fired at it so yeah you're seeing some 59s down the board i think we got 63 originally but yes i think 60 is still fine but yeah definitely that's the risk you'll be holding your breath you literally the entire game oh now see i made a critical error here in newton i was basing all my bets off the fact that i was currently inside the top five in the giant five dollar in golf and now i I'm not, so I don't have any money left. I borrow some. Here's the good news. It's only Friday. You got two more rounds. And I need Hideki to make the cut. So I need him to start playing a little bit better. Let's go Hideki. All right. So you don't want to same game parlay with Connors,

Kenneth Walker. I'm going to give you a tackle because now we can do this uh we're gonna go in the same game there with cody barton over eight and a half tackles and assists uh this is like minus 120 minus 130 out there pretty readily available caesars rivers draft kings mgm um great spot for linebackers against the niners they're averaging a league high 23.5 tackles and assists per game again these are teams that play each other a lot with two games a season Barton at the time was not an every down player he was basically playing like 80 83 percent of the snaps in those two games still even as a part-time player 11 and 10 tackles in the two games against the Niners their main primary linebacker Jordan Brooks tore his ACL and a couple other ligaments two weeks ago so now Barton is an every down linebacker played 100% of the snaps last week so now we have

his playing time going up as well and then also scorekeeper wise favorable for the visitors in San Francisco as well visitors seeing 4.2 more assists per game than league average. Similar to the Roquan Smith situation. We have pretty likely negative game script in the second half, which probably leads to, you know, a ton of rushing again. You want to tie this into Elijah Mitchell. I think that those correlate pretty well here. Cody Barton over eight and a half tackles and assists.

Minus one at that 365. There you go. Yeah. So again, like when you get a little bit higher up there, 365 is again, they have this ladder opportunity where you can do alts.

You can't do that in any other books. It's a little bit harder when you get into the bigger numbers because you can't ladder as high because you're already at eight and a half. But man, you got a guy like a Marcus Williams who's flashed 10, 12 tackle upside.

When he's lined at four and a half, you can start to get into like, I think he's like, I saw at nine tackles, he's like 15 to one. Who was it? Marcus Williams who we did earlier. Oh, yeah. Like if you want to get on Cody Barton, you can do 10 or more at plus 150. That doesn't seem great. No, no, it's great. So good spot again, 11 and 10 in the matchup

and the every down stuff I think is a nice spike. So I think he's 10th in the league in tackles on the year too. So pretty, pretty good. All right, we are through three each. It's actually even more. We got a little bit more in there for you, but if you're hanging out in the chat, jump in, let us know something that you want us to talk about at the end.

We'll get to as many as we can and uh connor back to you number four yeah my last one when we just bet before the show i like richie james over 49 and a half receiving yards the number is high i get it but since week 13 richie james played a much bigger role in the giants offense 79 snap rate or higher every single game. During those four games, he has 61, 42, 90, and 76 receiving yards, averaging eight targets per game. He had his best game of the season actually last time against Minnesota, catching nine of 11 targets for 90 receiving yards. I expect the Giants to probably have to throw a good bit here.

So the matchup's good. He's been used a ton. And I think the Giants are kind of live here in this game. So, you know, I don't know. I think the over here at 49 and a half, game um so yeah i don't know i think the over here at 49 and a half while it seems high for a guy like richie james is a pretty solid look considering all the other factors yeah shannon sullivan is the slot corner for minnesota he has been destroyed uh this season when you look at some of the pff stuff uh with him in coverage especially with him in coverage in the

slot uh it is highest yards per snap um he's seeing a ton of receptions per targets uh targets per snap all that stuff like he is uh he is a very very popular target for the opposition when he's covering the slot receiver so i really like i like that james play i thought about it i almost wrote it up yesterday what do you like more it's plus money for over four and a half receptions not a low threshold you know five catches and again you referenced eight last time i think he had eight the game before two it's been prominently involved i don't know i kind of because he is kind of a low a dot guy too i know he went for eight for 90 but what are your thoughts did you consider that because i did yeah so i was gonna bet that but then it went from like plus 115 plus 120 to

like even money and so then i was kind of like meh uh i feel like the yards kind of gives you more outs if the game gets you know if you're only sitting at three receptions and you're like you know 35 yards like you know i'd probably rather at that point have the have the yardage because uh i feel like he's just capable to break that in one play against a Minnesota secondary. Like you said, most yards per whatever yards per target allowed from that slot corner. So yeah,

I, again, I like plus one 15 plus one 20. I was really into it, but I don't see that anymore. Maybe there was one shop left with it, but most of the time it looked like it was like closer to even at this point.

Yeah. Draft Kings or it looks like, you know, M, FanDuel plus 102 would be your best Richie James number. Otherwise, it has moved. Caesars out to minus 123, minus 110 at a lot of other spots. So, yeah, I like both of them, to be honest. So I think just getting some Richie James on the card, I think, makes sense. However you feel is the best way to do it. All right, Pat, empty the clip.

Number four, any other thoughts? What else here? Again, we don't need many thoughts since mostly everything's readily available. So Josh Palmer, 49 and a half, I think is a pretty decent look with Mike Williams now out for the Chargers, but I'm going to pass on that. And I'm going to go with what I've been saying, kind of throwing into same game parlay pieces cody parkinson 18 and a half yards over he just continues to eclip this ever since he became ever since will disley went down it i remember the very first week we were talking about this and it's like okay uh no offense he's gonna see this huge uptick and like

they had so many injuries at receiver then all of a a sudden it was like, who the hell is this Parkinson guy? Where did he come from? Then he has just been very consistent. 47, 36, 45, each of the past three games when he started to see actual snapshots, like Gino has some sort of connection with this guy.

Maybe it's the long goofy hair. I don't know. Or maybe it's like, this guy looks like he sucks. Let's not cover him. And he's wide open. So they throw it to him. Like there's all these different factors that can go into it,

but whatever it might be, this number just seems oddly low for someone who beat this number in the first four or five games to start the year. And he ended it with three straight games beating this number. I like it a lot. Yeah. His band broke up and he just decided to take up football. He tried to do the Seattle grunge scene in the middle of the season when they had everyone healthy.

He's like, well, you don't need me. And then when they called him back, the tour didn't go well. Half the band got COVID. They couldn't practice anymore. So he's back on the field. It's good news for our product. He didn't realize the grunge thing stopped like 25 years ago. And he's like, wait a second.

I might as well take up football. I'm pretty big. Yeah, you're right. For a Stanford guy, you think he would have figured it out after like the eight weeks. But here we are. Yeah. I'm surprised. I a Stanford guy, you'd think he would have figured it out after the eight weeks, but here we are. Yeah. I'm surprised. I'm looking at the raw participation.

Last two weeks, 78-58. When you're at 70 for tight end, that's the upper echelon, guys. Really, again, Kelsey aside, if you're 70%, and that's more than fans, 58-66, so they are running a lot of two tight end sets and, you know, target share has been Parkinson over fans, um, since the increase as well. So even on limited snaps to a couple of weeks prior, he was seeing a pretty high target per route rate. So I think there's something to it.

Again, this, this fits the brand of Pat for the show for sure. Today is these, uh, these nobodies who are going to get there on one catch. I love Colby Parkinson. He was a touchdown machine at Stanford. He was awesome. I actually had him in. I got roped into playing a college football fantasy league a long time ago when he was in college. He was a stud.

He was my best player. I don't think the rest of my team was very good because I didn't know 90% of the players. But I had him, and he was a baller. So I'm in. Low threshold just takes maybe the one. So no problem with that. I have a couple.

I have one that I played just before we went on, still out there. And it is way off market. It is a book we don't talk about often on the show it is uh you know not representative of my sweatshirt today but it is fan duel um it is again way different than everywhere else it is chris godwin over six and a half receptions it's minus 122 it's like places that still have six and a half are out to like 150 most places have moved to seven and a half at plus money. So again, this is FanDuel specific.

Ben Brady's favorite target for sure is the only Bucs receiver with a target per route rate north of 20 to 24% of the season. Last week he barely played and still had six catches on seven targets 50 target per route rate on like 40 of the snaps um referencing the shannon sullivan stuff for minnesota their slot corner this is why i have that tab open because i was looking earlier deron bland is the slot corner over the last couple weeks for the cowboys and he has also been a very popular target for the opposition it makes sense you want to stay away from trayvon dig Diggs, you know, out wide. His coverage snaps per target is the second highest in the league. His snaps per receiving rate, 6.6, second highest in the league. We got Brady in the spots. He's going to throw for, I don't know, projections. Basically your

number is like 42 and a half passing attempts. It's going to drop back 45 times. Godwin's going to be heavily involved. The low ADOT stuff would make me want to go receptions over receiving yards. So yeah, six and a half and minus 122 is still out there and a play that should be made. Six and a half are still out there now on Keenan Allen. That was a play early in the week. That's been steamed, obviously, since the Mike Williams news.

When I was talking with feinberg yesterday and i was asking him kind of about the ancillary pieces on the chargers who should we look at if mike williams is out he talked about donald parham and i would give a shout out to john daigle he's been talking about it for three weeks i know well john daig John Daigle backed it up. Did not talk to Feinberg. Does not know that I talked to Feinberg about the Parham thing. And Daigle pushed that out as a play for us just before we went out there too. Basically an increased route rate, 10.5 yards. This is like a Mayo play. Yeah.

Maybe you're – Parham, Parkinson, Ray Ray, Trent, Nerwin. Yeah. I mean, you have to parlay all those. I mean, I will if you don't because I need some skin in the game on the low threshold guys. Honest to God, I think you'd be better off just betting Parham any time touchdown because if he's going to have a catch,

it's probably going to be for a touchdown. Yeah, and Jacksonville dead last in DVOA against tight ends on the season. So it's a pretty good matchup. So it just felt like a brand play. I'm sure you're probably just tired of Jeff talking about Donald Parham, you know, emerging. We've been waiting for that for a handful of years. So that would be, that'd be it.

Cause there's a couple of unders on the tackle side. I want to touch on real quick. Again, four and four.com slash plans. You can get a betting sub, get in our Discord. If I put these as official plays, you should probably tail them. I haven't bet these yet, but there's a few that make sense that I like that are looking nice in projections that I haven't fired at.

I want to get a Logan Wilson. He's a linebacker for the Bengals. A good number on under nine and a half it's like basically eight and a half plus money everywhere um it's just too high i think he's topped it twice all season the two times have been recent so i think that that's impacting the number here and then really bad home scorekeeper situation for um for the bangles uh they just they don't give out assists it's one of the lowest in the league. So if we can get a decent price on Logan Wilson under nine and a half tackles, I like that quite

a bit. Another thing I want to get, I want to play an under on someone on the Dolphins. Their playing time is so hard to nail down. They really don't have anyone that's very predictable from a playing time standpoint. Elandon Roberts is one of their lineback predictable from a playing time standpoint um elon and roberts is one of their linebackers he his his playing time is so hard to project it is all over the map but i looked and the two times they've played the bills this season he's played under 50 of the snaps so i think it's probably something scheme wise where they just don't like him in in this matchup maybe they want to go like him in, in this matchup. Maybe they want to go like heavier for like past the events.

He's like five and a half at minus one 20. I feel like that's too high again. Maybe again, if he is, if he's playing 50% of the snaps, I haven't projected at this number, but I haven't projected for like 65% of the snaps. So I could be way off and there might be some signal to this playing time

versus the bills thing. It's just two games. It's's a problem so you can't really play for the patriots last couple years i don't have a lot of data points on it but that's another number and then in the same game matt milano linebacker for the bills under seven and a half i think is a good look i have him at six uh if i you know i play around with the plays in that game and he's still like six and a quarter. He's had some other good games recently, which I think is inflating the number and the bills don't offer a lot of assist as well. And so the only problem is like some of the matchup stuff is with Tua and not with Skylar Thompson. So I worry about how to really pull some of that Miami stuff forward. But those are three unders that are projecting really well for me that I

haven't fired at that. I might just want to put those out there for more people. If you want to consider, maybe those are pretty good price picks plays. If you want to throw them in and, you know, build a three-legger there on the underside, it won't kill any of our really strong overplays.

So there you go. For each, we gave you like, I don't know, 20 plays here today so good stuff it's it's exciting to be back with the full remember like weeks two and three it's like every prop is out on a friday this is great easy yeah last couple weeks it was just a list of guys that i would love to see tackles that never came because they just wouldn't post any tackles and

then this week they put tackles on on Tuesday. I was not prepared. I'm trying to put finishing position bets in for the Sony Open, and I get alerts that tackles are coming. Projections weren't even done. So good place to be. All right. We're going to handle some questions that you have in the chat. Again, we'll hang out for a little bit.

If you have some, let us know. And let's see where we're at. Appreciate you guys hanging out. Prop boys. Let's see. Sam you guys hanging out, prop boys. Let's see. Sam's talking about like in the Mitchell play. I'm sure about the rain. He's talking about there might be some people saying that it might actually stop before game time.

I don't think, Connor, I'll speak for you that the handicap is tied to the rain, but again, it can't hurt. Yeah. It doesn't really matter that much. I mean, just adds to maybe the niners run it a couple extra times if that's the case but i don't imagine them deciding to go pass heavy with brock birdie

here in his first playoff game ever so i highly doubt that yeah um unproperly this is a tough scene for the bears um 32nd pick overall for chase claypool in hindsight ends up being a pretty rough trade um who who doesn't have their first pick miami oh yeah that's right technically it'll be the 33rd pick but it'll be the 32nd selection yeah that's pick 22 21 22 that gets uh did you hear the did you see the quote from one of our chats noonan that uh chase claypool hates justin fields no and that he doesn't like he doesn't well i mean we already knew that he doesn't even know the playbook and that's why he wasn't playing and there was some rift in the locker room or something and then someone's literally just came out and said yeah he hates justin fields so would not be surprised

um complete disaster of a trade so far uh derrick wants to know better to take richie james yards or plus four and a half yards in a head-to-head with darius slayton i would not play any yardage props with darius slayton i think you're just inviting more variants with something like this um yeah guys kind of think that yeah i would just go with the richie james play isolated it's like a parlay that you don't get paid for anything right because you're essentially betting on two separate things to happen um and then i think what path may be getting at too is slayton is a big play guy so like you can lose the slate inside have again a really good handicap you could get significantly less volume than rich james or isaiah hodges and can get there on one or two catches because a lot of his a dot stuff is just significantly

further downfield so um yeah i kind kind of, kind of agree there. Lucas wants to know, this is what I like here as well. TJ Hawkinson over four and a half receptions. Dude has just been a monster since signing. Giants have really struggled against tight ends all season. He's very heavily involved. I think Price is pretty normal. I don't think there's anything prohibitive here.

Let me see where we're at on Hawkinson. Yeah, I mean, minus 115 on DraftKings, 105 on MGM. Pretty straight across the board. Connor, any thoughts on Hawkinson? Also, their matchup here against the Giants, they're one of the worst at defending the tight end right now. Hawkinson already had, I believe it was like 10 for 100 or something like that last time around.

I mean, just absolutely went off. And that was despite the Vikings leading the entire game or most of the game. So they still decided not to run the ball. They wanted to pass. So yeah, I think Hawkinson overs are very squarely in play. And we also know that they're going to be blitzing a ton. They didn't play as much man last time, as you mentioned. But I think that the combo of Hawkinson and Jefferson

has kind of been able to beat them, beat that blitz man combo that was basically the death of Kirk Cousins for the first eight to ten weeks before they got Hawkinson. Since then, he's actually been pretty solid against those combos. So that's what the Giants do a bunch of. I think the over is a good look. I haven't found anything overly compelling outside of his last results, though, like oh this is a great play you know what i mean because i have something against it oh let's hear it let's hear it smith you think he plays much i mean he played 45 of

the snaps last week yeah that's fair like if he just like and listen i'm not saying like oh man irv smith's back what about hawkinson hawkinson's gonna play but if we can, like, and listen, I'm not saying like, oh man, Irv Smith's back. What about Hawkinson? Hawkinson's going to play, but if we can, and I know if the Vikings rested their starters, that's why Irv ended up playing so much.

Johnny Muntz was above 40% last week for the Vikings too. But even if it just goes from a situation where, listen, they're not asking Irv to block. We know that. So if Irv is on the field,

like it's just a, like something just on the edges to take away from Hawkinson, if you understand the point I'm trying to make here. Yeah, it's probably, you know, there's more outs for failing with Irv being active than there were a couple weeks ago in the matchup that we're referencing where he went off against them. So what if it's three targets and those come directly at the expense of Hawkinson? Then it's not great, right? Yeah, that's not good yeah makes sense good call um yeah i still hawk i would still it's not an underplay for me i would still lean over but um i get you know pat poking a pretty good hole in that too uh luke is asking about digs over six and a half receptions plus 210 i mean it's it's plus 110 he he later corrected himself in the chat because plus 210 would be uh

very fire yeah yeah um that's what i'm like wait a second we didn't have it starred here to talk about i'm like wait a second um yeah i mean i would think the hole in it would be just them not needing it but again like he's been so he's been really involved the last couple weeks there's been i think some squeaky wheel narrative around digs getting evolved more and that happened quite a bit the last last week i mean even their first drive um where we didn't see the full game obviously in the cincinnati game uh but yeah he was peppered in that game too um all right where are we at on ray sean jenkins tackles and assists six and a half on prize picks i haven't projected right on that number we were betting ray sean jenkins heavily at four and a half the books have adjusted uh six and a half is a good number

though i did play his teammates foyer luacon and Luokan, over 10.5. That got nuked. But 10.5 is still available on PrizePix if you want to play Luokan, who I think is – he led the league in tackles again two years in a row. I think the Mike Williams news actually helps the, I think, shorter ADOT, more Keenan Allen, more Austin Eckler working over the middle of the field. Luokan has been an absolute beast. 12.7 tackles per game over the last like seven weeks um you know multiple like 14 15 tackle games he's a stud for sure something that i like to do on this show

because it's fun and i haven't gotten to do in a while we have some breaking news mid-show tyler huntley full participant and will be the starter from my understanding. Gus Edwards clears concussion protocol will also be playing. So two pretty big shifts there from what we were looking at on, I guess, you know, a couple of days ago where we thought Anthony Brown was going to be the starter and that Gus Edwards is likely going to be out. So JK Dobbins props right now, 13 and a half carries 61 rushing yards. I think it's down to 59. I'm not sure I can still stomach the under, but I can see it. But with, with Huntley in,

I feel like the, the Ravens have a little bit more life than with Anthony Brown. I don't know any, anything stand out there. Are you going to go to Andrew's props? I mean, those were going to, we thought we're going to be money and they were not money when he came in.

He's been so bad. I mean, I think it probably helps them. He's better than Anthony Brown, but he's not good, and he has not been good. So it doesn't really change much of anything for me. I took a really fishy, big, chunky, money-line parlay with the Bengals, Niners, and Bills this weekend. So I laid a lot, taking the juice but i just i can't see

those teams losing so here we are fishy fishy money line parlays love it love it and then we got brian solvin uh chiming in here scout i know on pits has claypool biggest jerk slash lazy you know i don't even know if that's true or not brian but i'm gonna because it's confirmation bias i absolutely love it and appreciate the comment. Question from Sam. Shout out, Sam. Where was Pat able to same game parlay tackles? 365 or were you somewhere else?

365? Son of a bitch, 365. Just move to Indiana just to have access to 365. Jersey? Yeah. Yeah. You'd rather move to Indiana than New Jersey access to 365. Jersey? Yeah. Yeah. You'd rather move to Indiana than New Jersey? It's just closer.

I wouldn't want to live in the United States. You'd be really interested in fucking your cousin or something like that? It's a pretty popular Indiana. It is. I believe it's the state bird of Indiana. Yeah. I mean, I lived in Jersey. I like Jersey. Yeah.

I've been to Jersey a few times. Maybe I've been to the bad parts of the states uh not not great but you're closer to a big city uh no atlantic city is trash though yeah no one should ever go to atlantic city is just my word of word of caution no i've never been how is it it? It's horrible. It's really depressing. Yeah, it's not great. It's like Vegas, but if everything was geared towards the saddest people on earth. Yeah. So you've been to the Horseshoe, right? In Indiana. Yeah, I've been there.

Yeah. So it's basically like the Horseshoe, but like bigger. There's more of it. We're getting some, the people are not happy in the chat about the you know who's your name is your new jersey resident i can back indiana from kyle sam c ham in indiana we do not fuck our cousins that definitely don't have 365 so if i was really concerned about the opinion of people from indiana i'm guessing they wouldn't live in Indiana. We're close.

We're close to Indiana. I don't mind going to the horseshoe. You guys live in fat Toronto. Yeah. Yeah, pretty much. Just on the other side of the state border. It's rough. Have you guys been to Toronto?

I have. I like Toronto. It's set up exactly like Chicago. It looks like Chicago, except it's way cleaner and not everyone's super fat. Correct. It's way cleaner. It's nice. The grid's very easy.

I love Toronto. Underrated city. And I love Chicago. Don't get me wrong. I really like it. It's very familiar for me. And you can fly from the sister connection of the cool in-the-city airports. You can fly from the city airport in toronto that's in the lake to midway and like just super easy midway's a shithole too though yeah but it's

convenient to fly into yeah for sure someone like hey they need a ride they pick me up from the airport like you're just like get get a car from the airport like some non-weirdo oh my god that's the one thing i boycott against is people like can you pick me up from the airport i'm like no get a fucking uber like you know i'll pay for your uber i'm not going to drive an hour and a half for like 40 minutes each way you know whatever to go through traffic and then also my friends and i beef about midway versus o'hare i'm big o'hare proponent because they have just better everything there except it's way more crowded um so that they say that midway is a lot better i don't know it's chicago beef but it's a big deal you know well i just just flying

from those two cities in particular like there's only one airline that flies to midway from toronto and it's the toronto city airline so like that airport is downtown toronto like to get out to basically pearson is like o'hare it's just a giant international with like nine terminals that it takes like an hour to get Out there like I can take an Uber to The city airport in 10 minutes from my house Where I was I don't live there now My wife's

In-laws live basically A I don't Know three quarters pitching wedge Away from one of the Landing strips at O'Hare like literally Like it's one of the Last landing strips at o'hare like literally like it's the one of the last couple houses you see as you land um it is you get used to it but uh yeah we're it's it's o'hare for us they live in in a place where i didn't even know people lived like they had a population

of like 500 because like right by the airport and all these like insane shops and everything in rosemont it's like it's pretty wild yeah well how far is o'hare airport from the indiana state line like could your cousin come pick you up uh yeah your cousin could pick you up yeah oh here's you know that's far man it's like an hour and a half yeah if you're coming from indiana you're going to midway probably you'd probably oh that's good. Sam, Kyle, sorry. It's a good bit, though. And you got to know, it's not the first time you've heard that from out of staters. I'm sorry, guys.

We didn't make any Gary jokes. No Gary Indiana jokes, which those are also low-hanging fruit. No, those are sad. They're really sad. Yeah. Everything you go into in Gary Indiana has got like a, you know, leave your gun uh in the car sign on the door if you go to like a fast food drive-thru like there's no actual like things that

pop open you have to do it like the old school bank stuff because they don't want you to be able to like get access through you got to put your money into it's like yeah it's not not great not great in gary indiana so, home of Michael Jackson, though. Jackson 5. Shout out to Gary, Indiana. And the, you know, sewer plants or whatever else poison they have coming through the air of Gary, Indiana. So, sorry.

Not a great show for Indiana. I apologize. Take that, Indiana. That's what you get for the Colts being trash. Yeah. You gave us Larry Bird. I appreciate that. So, that's really all I can do for you.

So. All right, gentlemen, appreciate it as always. Pat, where can everyone find your stuff? The Mayo Media Network on the YouTubes, the Pat Mayo Experience audio podcast. If you search on Spotify or Stitcher or Apple podcast, for sure, it's definitely going to pop up. Just finished my DraftKings pick show for the Sunday slate and showdown slate on Monday with my guy Tambo.

So we broke all of that down and plus golf Sunday, Monday, and Wednesday, football Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday until the end of football. So then you're not going to see me for a while. Good.

Take a vacation. Much earned. Much deserved. Connor props um where are you at are you feeling like your card's full are we gonna fire some more stuff get a little bit more yeah i gotta i gotta i'm writing another sgp article for bleacher nation you know i've been firing off some 20 to 1 same game parlays uh you know right up my normal alley now the exact opposite but i i do think it's been been forcing me to like dive even deeper into some of these trends. So the Richie James one is one that I ended up like kind of finding through that, that I was going to play regardless. Uh, probably have one or two

more. Um, I get scared of taking unders and playoffs because it's just like do or die for these guys. Like some of these guys has become beasts, you know, in the playoffs, which I know they're trying the whole year too, but there's like sometimes extra for some of these guys. So it was a little scary, but I'm stick with my brand keep playing unders and just now at this point ridiculous alt overs as well i love it that's why i made it over in the tackles anyway i project typically lower plays per game anyway i'm very conservative on the plays for the projections that way if i'm lower on plays and it over pops in the projections, then I feel like it's an even better play because then there's, I still have, I think a little bit of a range of outcomes up in terms of projected plays per game.

So, all right, gentlemen, good stuff as always. Appreciate it. Again, two episodes per week. We appreciate it. Subscribe, rate and review. Leave a review on the audio podcast. Goes a long way in helping us out a ton too. And then four for four bets on the YouTube channel. Uh, we have unique content there,

shorts again, covering other sports, college hoops, uh, NBA, MMA, all that stuff. So for Connor and Pat, I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next week. Good luck. you