Move The Line - NFL Win Totals 2024: Expert Over/Under Predictions

Episode Date: May 30, 2024

Get ahead in the betting game with our expert analysis of 2024 NFL win totals! Join us as we break down the best bets for over/unders, examining team performance, key offseason moves, and schedule strengths. From top contenders to potential surprises, we'll guide you through the smartest picks to maximize your winnings this NFL season. Don't miss out – subscribe now and stay tuned for the ultimate betting insights! Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football   Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets   Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl   Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/ Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw 4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

hello and welcome move the line presented by four for four bets right in the back with connor allen as always we are getting into the uh meat and potatoes of the offices and connor uh draft is fully behind us for the most part have rosters i mean there's some decent name for agents actually still kind of pending out there but we are at the spot now where you start talking about future markets some divisional plays some win totals and that's what we're going to do today what's going on buddy yeah not much we're uh in the heart of the off season here trying to still learn how to golf so that's kind of been good a little off-season project when i get a chance um i'm excited i

haven't seen the new sticks yet so i'm excited oh yeah i got new sticks i'm learning i learned how to drive actually fairly well so i can like you know get that going i'm significantly improved you know so i've been i've been in the sims you know uh first time shot a plus 54 so that was not great uh since then you know and then the plus 30 ranges so we're i mean approaching 100 so it's you know, and then the plus 30 ranges. So we're, I mean, approaching a hundred. So it's, you know, it's getting better. That's huge. Yeah. It wasn't bad. It wasn't, it wasn't downright abysmal. Yeah. No, that's, that's, I mean, considering you were playing, uh,

you know, I've been part of the journey, been helping the process. I saw those early rounds we've, we've played, um, you know, numerous rounds together and you were playing with basically some of the first iterations of golf clubs, especially from an off-the-tee standpoint. The drivers and the woods that were involved were, I don't know, not great. Very, very old, and you're still managing your way, competing with peers that had new technology and a lot more experience. So I feel good about where you can continue to to get the game to i'm excited about this this is good it's a good

offseason yeah coming soon but excited excited to talk some football too you know it's a lot of bets to be made i think right now a lot of bets to be made we want you to come and hang out with us head over to 444.com slash plans screw up the betting subscription it is the best way to get access to all that we're doing at 444 gets you access to. Scoop up the betting subscription. It is the best way to get access to all that we're doing at 444. Gets you access to the Discord where all the official plays are pushed out. Again, great like-minded community that is just grinding stuff all year. Really, really appreciate that group. Check it out.

We're going to continue to bet. We have NBA draft bets coming soon from our guy VR. VR was a prominent member of the spot here during the NFL draft season, but we have NBA stuff coming real, real soon. I think we've both been a little bit in the weeds in that. So we're, I think, going to be prepared to contribute to that as well. Obviously VR has had a lot of success. Basically anything that you could bet draft wise, you can check that out.

So get the betting sub, you get access to that. And then everything we do for the football season, again, still playing season-long, playing DFS, best ball. We got all sorts of tools for that. Check it out, 444.com slash plants. All right, Connor, I'll probably, you know, buzz through a couple of win totals today. Market's been up for a little bit,

but I still think we know this is a very inefficient market overall year over year uh just massive massive swings uh i remember our guy um drew dinsic uh the whale capper did some work on this a couple years ago like on average you're like two two and a half wins off of the number so you might look at it and feel like it's a pretty efficient market and it just't. And part of that is the nature of football in general, right? We know that it is, especially, you know, week to week can be very difficult to predict. You get into the, you know, 50,000 foot view and want to kind of project out how these teams are going to be. Schedule wise and all those things, it's a little bit tricky, but for the most part, like I said, we have rosters. What I, for the most part, what I think we're going to have for a lot of teams and uh feel pretty good about taking some swings and some stuff that's currently

out there in the market so we're gonna go around we're gonna share a couple each uh i'll let you get started with uh a win total for us to you know something you bet something you're kind of eyeballing you want to see good price good number uh kick us off what do you got yeah i'm gonna have two today and i'm gonna release these in our discord as well um this one the first one's gonna be for a full unit second one half unit my first one that i'm going to have two today, and I'm going to release these in our Discord as well. This one, the first one's going to be for a full unit, second one, half unit. My first one that I'm going with here is going to be the Las Vegas Raiders under seven wins. You can get this at even money at Caesars right now. The flat seven, not the seven and a half. Or you can get six and a half at plus money.

But, I mean, generally I prefer the seven here, getting that little extra half hook. This roster still has a ton of holes. And to be honest, I'm not really buying the Antonio Pierce team. They have major question marks at quarterback, offensive line, linebacker, running back, and they have cornerback depth issues. I mean, for example, their outside corner is Ja'Cory and Bennett. Graded out as the 124th out of 127 corners. Their line has like a mismatch of players that left guard, right guard, and right tackle still aren't very good. The defensive line looks pretty solid. They added Christian Wilkins and

still have Max Crosby. So that's definitely a strength. But then we go over to the offensive side of the ball. Their offensive coordinator is now Luke Getze. I mean, one of the worst offensive coordinators in the league. It was very clear last year. Like Justin Fields is not infallible. There's plenty of plenty wrong with Justin Fields, but it's the route concepts and the blocking schemes that got me. There are guys running the same routes basically on top of each other, sitting three yards away from each other. There's no way that you can complete passes to both these guys, and it was just confusing on a week-to-week basis how this is even possible,

and it wasn't accidents by the receivers every time. It is very clearly the scheming there. So I think this could be a disaster offensively for them, especially if the offensive line doesn't shake out. If it shakes out to be average, maybe they go run heavy, maybe they're fine. But then the quarterback you have Gardner Minshew right now, minus one 50 to be the favorite over Aiden O'Connell. I mean, he's just a average to below average quarterback and the weapons are great. Sure. Devonta Adams is good. He's getting a little bit older. They have a rookie tight end, Brock Bowers. Jacoby Myers is

fine. But again, if you have offensive line issues, if you have scheme issues, which I think they have massive scheme issues, that's a problem here too. And then everyone talks about their late season resurgence with Antonio Pierce, where he went five and four. They beat the Giants, the Jets, again, no Aaron Rodgers, the Chargers in the Brandon Staley farewell game, you know, where it was basically sayonara. He was already on his way out. And then the Chiefs in what was the biggest three-week net rest advantage of the season, apparently, on Christmas,

where Deep Value Better did some research around that. So it's like rolling three-week net rest is essentially the only thing that he found to be statistically relevant outside of, you know, because people cite net rest the whole season and stuff like that. I don't think that really fully matters on a holistic scale, but when you find certain spots, it absolutely matters. And so, you know, like this was one of the biggest of the season and then, you know, the Raiders won that game.

Then they beat the Broncos. So that was like their run where everyone was like, oh, Antonio Pierce is the guy. So I wasn't impressed. I think that their floor is extremely low. Like I'm going to bet them to finish with the worst record in the league. Um, given their schedule, their favorite in one game this season. Um, and that's at home against Carolina.

So, I mean, I think the under seven is nice. I think that if the floor falls off from under them, like maybe Devonta Adams requests to trade or something like that. Like the floor here is from under them, like maybe Devonta Adams requests a trade or something like that, like the floor here is outrageously low. The Chiefs game was one that, is there early turnovers in that game? I believe it was the game where Aiden O'Connell, I don't think he had a completion

in the last three quarters of the game. It was something wild like that too, right? That was just like, you know, there was some, again, the defense held up, got some early turnovers and scored off of them and then just held on for dear life it's not like they uh again they went into arrowhead whatever they call it nowadays beat the eventual super bowl champs but to your point like rest advantage in a spot where i think is impactful does matter uh looking at the unique three within the division, but the tougher schedules in the division,

Jacksonville at Miami at the Rams. Not great. You mentioned too, like you don't have an answer at quarterback. That is a big deal. They can continue to be interesting defensively because the defensive line is so good. But like you said, like they have to be able to generate pressure,

get home with it. Cause the back half isn't great like i love nate hobbs uh is a like tackle producer at the cornerback position not a great cover corner uh and more of a slot hybrid safety guy than like a number one lockdown type corner so and he's the best of the bunch it's not it's not great in the back half that's why we were looking at like draft selection like kind of surprised that they went with Brock Bowers thinking of all the team needs that they have. But again,

he should probably shouldn't have been there too. I think we like that, you know, players as a prospect. So yeah, I, I like the Raiders. I'm fine with it too.

I probably would take the plus money at six and a half. But again, I get the push, you get the extra win, you know, they have to have a whole nother win basically for you to lose the bat versus pushing the bat at seven. So yeah, don't hate that at all yeah it's just uh i don't know it's one of those things where the raiders have kind of had my number i think the last three or

four years especially in the size and totals market uh they've kind of been a team that i've struggled with and this year um you know kind of after diving in a little bit deeper i just feel better and better especially because we have like kind of the coaching thing that i think we can fade you know some of the narrative there and And, um, like, I just don't think that they're materially better, you know, in a lot of ways and, um, the way their schedule shakes out, uh, it seems pretty tough. Yeah. Uh, with you on that one, I will probably tail that there for sure. Um, I, I think, you know what I'm doing here um i've not been quiet i will probably continue to be loud about my uh love for this colts roster and you can get over eight and a

half wins on indie at plus money plus 105 over eight and a half on seizures currently, minus 104 for over eight and a half on FanDuel. This is a drastically improved roster, continuing to improve, I think just by drafting a ton of athletes. That ends up working. You hit on some of these guys, and when they become really good players, you get rewarded. So obviously the X factor here is the quarterback, Anthony Richardson.

Can he stay healthy? We obviously saw he struggled with that last year in his debut, but the ceiling I think is absolutely massive with who he is as a player, how he can impact defensive schemes and how they have to address this team offensively. He played two snaps all season last year with Jonathan Taylor. Taylor missed the first four weeks, that week five game against Tennessee. Richardson got hurt early in that game. And the ability to do things with that dynamic run game RPO option is massive.

Now, for the last couple of years, I felt like the Colts offensive line was massively overrated. Everyone just thinks of Quentin Nelson being like a dog and they think it's a great offensive line. Well, now it is. It's an underrated offensive line. It's a top five unit in the league. If you're looking at just PFF grades, you probably make a case that it's a top three offensive line in the league. Both of the tackles are fantastic uh brayden smith probably like a top five run blocker in the league um you know bernhard raymond the guy kind of fell in the draft uh to the second round thought it was gonna be a late first round pick a couple years ago fantastic year premier pass rushing or pass blocking offensive lineman and then the interior

you still have quentin ellison ryan kelly one of the best centers in the league this is a team that's going to be able to win up front protect richardson and then allow him to create and run uh behind this offensive line too with jonathan taylor and then they go out in the draft add ad mitchell the guy again everyone thought was going to be a first round pick slid a little bit michael pitman emerged last year this team won nine games with 13 garden dementia starts last year now we just year this team won nine games with 13 garden of entry starts last year now we just need them to win nine games again um they also get uh jelani woods back who missed the entire year uh with injury another just big bodied freak off our tight end athlete that they've just kind of compiled over the last couple years and the defense is really interesting

they have arguably the best defensive front in the league they have three edge rushers that are significantly above average if play out to lots of comes in and is that guy right away deforest buckner arguably one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league grover stewart is just kind of a run-stopping mauler next to him uh and they just needed a little bit of help out of the secondary if kenny moore one of the best slot guys in the league juju brentz is a guy loved in last year's draft, missed some time. But again, it's going to be their corner one if he's that guy. They just kind of need to get an answer on the other side. And this team is good if they're healthy.

Now, the schedule is pretty easy, too. By far the easiest schedule in the AFC South. The unique three at Denver, at the giants in pittsburgh when you look at the back end of the schedule too there's some wins here down the stretch they got a late buy i believe week 14 week 13 week 14 by uh week 13 before the buy periods uh then after the buy broncos titans giants week 18 is home to the Jacks. So there's some wins there down the stretch if, again, Anthony Richardson is upright. So I love plus money on this team to win nine games.

I think they can make the playoffs. I think they can win this division. But again, there's competition there. I think all those teams in the division are becoming a little bit more interesting. Again, Titans have made some splashes here. But, yeah, the Colts, I think the upside here is pretty massive with Richardson staying upright.

So, again, big F. Yeah, no, I, you, you had me sold on it and I think the roster is good. And like, you know, I was a pretty big hater entering last year and I changed my tune pretty quick. I mean, just what we saw like immediately with just the scheming from Steichen with our Anthony Richardson's ability to play within that scheme, like immediately just to me, it was like, okay, this guy can do it. Now, you know, Dan Rivera brings up in the chat here, fun fact, uh, Anthony Richardson only has 11 quarters of NFL work so far. His sample in college was not that big either. But that being said, I mean, I don't know, maybe I've seen enough in 11 quarters, but I'm optimistic about what he can do. As long as he stays healthy. I am a little concerned about the comments that he said that he's like, they're like,

are you going to play safer? And he's like, no, like I'm going to play how I want to play. I mean, any thoughts on that? Cause like, in my opinion,

it's a little bit of red flag, but maybe he just, if he stays healthy again, if he stays healthy, like he could win MVP. Yeah. I mean, offensive player of the year.

So look, he got, he got concussed. He got concussed on a second rushing touchdown in the game against the titan or against the texans um in the first quarter and like we know the concussion protocol so he missed some time there and then you know on a scramble you know a dislocated shoulder and i think they were probably pretty probably could have brought him back in season and just didn't want to which was a smart thing to to do. So yeah, I mean, you can't, you can find ways to argue either side of injury history. Cannot argue against the fact that Dan presents, right?

He just didn't play a lot. But I think we all saw enough. And I buried the lead. Like Shane Steichen, I think is a talent maximizer in what he was able to do with that team with really just i mean like josh downs was an exciting emerging prospect that we maybe exceeded expectations there michael pitman just got peppered with targets now if you get year two for downs you add ad mitchell

it makes it a little bit easier like they really like jelani woods who really emerged as a rookie the year before before he went down There's just more optionality. And I think Steichen's going to do a good job at helping Richardson be the best version of whatever he can be. Again, that's the caveat is, look, do we have to have seven games of Joe Flacco this year, who's the new backup quarterback? Yeah.

That wouldn't be great, but that wouldn't be awful, right? It would be fun. He was okay. Yeah. So, I don't know. I'm encouraged by the defense they have a lot of talent i think they could be a real problem up front um with how they can really disrupt both interior pass rush and at the edges and they have three guys so the ability to rotate

keep guys fresh uh yeah i'm just excited about the coles team team you know that i think has kind of won the drafts the last handful of years. What do you think the best, like, I mean, do you think that their range of outcomes is high enough that they can win the AFC Superbowl division? Like, because you're looking at prices for the division plus three 30 at FanDuel on the Colts to win the division. I don't mind that because I think they're probably closer to the Texans than the market suggests and maybe even better than the Jaguars straight up.

And then we're looking at when they have seen, we're like, it's like 35 to one. I mean, it's not like it's 15 to one or even 61. I mean, it's a good bit longer than if they make the playoffs. Like,

you know, I think that anything can happen. Obviously just AFC is just very, very tough. And then 66 to one, 65 to one to win the super bowl. So like, is there anything that you're going to be sprinkling on in addition to,

or, I mean, where, or is it just the wind total? Because because you think that their their range of outcomes is just a little bit higher but still pretty tight i like the division look i think that's a good call at 330 to your point because i do think they are closer to the texans than the market suggests and i think they are probably better than um the jaguars to be honest. I have fewer questions about the defense, to be honest, than I do with what's going on in Jacksonville. They have a new coordinator that actually,

Ryan Nielsen, who was with the Saints in the last years with, I think did a great job with the Falcons, is there in Jacksonville now. That's going to be interesting too. But, you know, they're probably safer because of, I think we think the quarterback situation is probably safer. But yeah, I think the upside is there. And first term in terms of like winning the afc tell me pat mahomes is out for the year then you know that opens up a bunch of stuff but i have a hard time making to win the afc bets knowing that mahomes is still alive and

playing football so uh but 35 is like to win the super bowl price right then that's right and but that's right. And, but that's kind of it. Right. Is that the AFC is so loaded. So yeah, I'm just bullish on the team because I think the ceiling is really high and way better than an eight and a half, you know, win total suggests. Yeah, that's fair. I like it.

I like it. Yeah. All right. Your second one. What do you got? Yeah. Uh, we, I mean, we've talked about it already a little bit here, but I'm going to make it official. Unfortunately for Noonan, I'm going to go with Patriots under five wins.

This is five flat at Caesars, four and a half plus money at other spots. I think both are solid. I mean, the roster as a whole isn't like outrageously bad, but there's just a couple of issues that I think there are specifically a problem. And so it's, you know of issues that I think there are specifically a problem. And so it's, you know, the depth at the offensive line specifically where they have a couple of good starters penciled in, you know, on the right side and interior, but left tackle, they let go of Trent Brown. So they're going to let Okorafor and maybe Caden Wallace do get out of left tackle, which

is again, you know, left tackle is a very pivotal position in the offensive line, especially with throwing the ball and throwing the ball, I think, is going to be the biggest problem for the Patriots, which is very, very important, especially when you consider their schedule. But right now, focusing on their kind of passing the ball, the Jacoby Brissett's minus 300 to start the season. So we're probably going to see him,

I would guess, for a couple of weeks throwing to Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, and then they drafted Jalen Polk. I would say I'm higher on market than market on like Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, and then they drafted Jalen Polk. I, I would say I'm higher on Mark with that market on like the Mario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, but like, they're not alphas. They're just guys who can separate in short to intermediate spaces at best. And then Jalen Polk, same thing. Like, again, I like Jalen Polk. He performed to Washington, but it was a very different system, uh, you know, performing alongside Roma Dunza, uh, and then another good receiver that was

drafted in an offense that was like wide open compared to the Patriots offense, which I think is going to be like a lot of under center, two wide receiver, maybe three wide receiver sets, probably some jumbo tight end stuff. So, I mean, I, this is one of the worst pass catching groups in the league. There's not really much room about it, unfortunately. And you're pairing that with Jacoby Brissett, who we know is a bottom tier starting quarterback or Drake May, who I think has upside. So like the, in my mind, the way the Patriots are good is that Drake May has to be good. Like that in my mind is the only solution because the schedule is just so, so tough. I mean, it's one of the toughest schedules in the league. They start the season against the Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers, Dolphins,

and Texans. They play just two games all year against teams with a win total less than eight. So literally every team that they're faced to play is a fringe playoff contender. I would, except for the Titans and Seahawks who I don't even know that maybe they are fringe playoff contenders, especially the Seahawks Titans. Not really as much probably, but like they're not bad teams. Like they're not like bottom three teams. They're like still games that are an uphill climb for the Patriots to win. Every other game is against a French playoff contender,

just brutal outlook. So I think from that aspect, it's tough for me to envision a scenario where like, okay, unless I get the passing game going or the running game is just absolutely cooking. And the defense is like flirting with top 10 numbers. That's the only way they're like an average team this year.

Any other scenario I'm, we're we're talking about three or four wins. And so I just really struggle to see how it comes together. I know that this is probably sad for you. The future, I think, is somewhat bright if Drake May can be okay. I know. Yeah, it's a tough scene right now. For those of you who are not watching on YouTube, Newton is touching his Patriots memorabilia in his house right now because he's a big pats homer but

i know you probably won't bet it because you just like physically can't but any any thoughts on the patriots this year i don't i don't see four or five wins on the schedule i think it's really hard to drug up a scenario where that's an option now again so the counter argument to play devil's advocate is last year without their two best defensive players christian gonzalez looks like the real deal in the first couple of weeks went down early with injury uh matthew judon's basically within the same game uh same thing out for uh out for the year. And they still were a, pick your metric, top 10 defensive unit, top five in some metrics. Now, that was really surprising.

We did not think that would be the case. I also have to think that even though Gerard Mayo stays on, there's some continuity with the defensive coaching side of the ball. Let's not pretend that Bill Belichick isn't the greatest defensive mind of all time. And there's no longer there. And like, yeah,

this was Mayo's defense, but like if Bill has his hand in any unit more than anything, it was the defensive side of the ball and he's gone. So like, again, I know Mayo's been there and that's still his thing, but like we're fooling ourselves. And we think that like Bill is just completely out to pasture and didn't

have an impact on how good that defense was last year. It's just, it's not, it's not the case. So they're going to get everyone back. It's still a really decent defense. But like the pressure on, on them to keep the team in games is massive.

And to your point, if you can't throw the football successfully in this league and create explosives, it's really hard to win football games in this league and create explosives, it's really hard to win football games in a conference, in a division that's loaded with teams that can do it. So last year, the roof crumbled in onto itself when Kendrick Bourne went down. That should never be the case.

And it would be the similar situation this year. They need Kendrick Bourne to be massively impactful. Yeah, okay, we added Javon baker in the draft like okay but do we expect him to like step in and contribute right away it's not it's not great it's not a great situation so like cole strange probably misses the start of the year um supposed to be one of your you know your former first round pick interior offensive lineman um not healthy so yeah i mean it's not a great path and as you mentioned the schedule is it's just so significantly more brutal than anyone else's schedule and that's a tough draw when you're like coming in off of being one of the

worst teams in league uh as well so like you should have an easier schedule and that's just absolutely not the case what happened in new england uh at cincinnati at chicago and the chargers are the unique three and then they play the afc south and the nfc west just again so much harder than everyone else in the division the jets have one of the easiest schedules dolphins top 10 schedule in terms of uh you know projected win totals for their opponents so yeah tough year in new england picking the top of the draft again next year seems very likely and uh i like drake may think it could be interesting but um the pats are not beating the bears by 30 jeff i'm sorry um yeah in the chat not happening blasphemy so um yeah i want to be optimistic but just to be realistic too this is just not it's a bottom five roster one other thing too that i was thinking about was like how drake may stylistically fits with

these wide receivers and it's just like not it's not the same way at all like these are guys where like if you had tom brady still at the helm he could probably make it work with these guys because they're just you know you've put them in the right area you're able to get the ball out quick just zip you know like and get players open in like short situations. You can probably piece something together. Obviously that's just not who Drake may is, you know, like he's a playmaker. He's a, you know, gunslinger. He's got all great arm talent. He can run the ball, which is great for upside, but you need guys who can also create explosives along with that. Like he can't just do it all himself. Uh, and so like stylistically, it just doesn't even add up either so um i don't

know i have a lot of questions too and i believe they brought over it was out uh van pelt right it was uh or the oc from cleveland um who didn't even call plays in cleveland by the way what stefanski's offense right so he's not even calling plays in cleveland you know and too like cleveland has relied on like a sick offensive line forever you know like their their offense functions like i mean for as long as they've been there off of like good offensive line play they've run the ball well and then be able to do other stuff off that like again the patriots offensive line i think has some questions on it so like that whole basis of that like just doesn't really add up either so i don't know just a ton of questions here i don't know if i'll bet on them to have the worst record because that price is probably like you know six to one something

like that five to one which i don't know if i want to like bet the chalk in these markets but um alt win unders i don't know like a three and a half under would be i'm not opposed yeah i i'm with you i hate that it's the case but it's the case um and you know no one can take away the 20 years we had, Connor. But again, this is the inverse side that has got to come along at some point. This is what us older Patriots fans remember growing up with. This is kind of where the organization was for a long time. They're going to struggle.

It's not going to be great. I'm optimistic with Drake May. I think we know who he is because I think he was forced to play a ton of hero ball at Carolina because he didn't really have any skill position guys to elevate um elevate him so yeah wait and see I'm I'm cautiously optimistic it just has this harder without like a clear guy like a clear separator like Pop Douglas in the slot that can't be it yeah no I mean I'm i actually love drake may just because he played craps after he got drafted like that he'll forever be a legend in my eyes like i don't you can tell me he like you know goes to jail the next day i don't care he's he's a legend you know like he's anyone who goes with their family directly to caesars after they get drafted is just a boss

like i'm all in uh last one for me well i have a have a couple of back and forth on they're both i think you're on board probably with both of them um panthers opened at four and a half and have taken some over money and now five and a half is available and i don't understand that uh i again think this is continues to be a bottom roster in the league um so under five and a half uh plus money you can get under five and a half plus 104 on fanduel obviously contingent on whatever happens whatever you think bryce young is uh but i still think his weaponry is subpar it's the same case as the pats uh the offensive lines may be a little bit better they spent some money in free agency to improve it but it's still not a great unit um now the defensive sides may be a little bit better i still have questions there too like you need jc horn to

be the guy and stay on the field that's something he's really really struggled with uh they've added some new guys at edge to kind of replace brian burns again you're taking away especially your best defensive player and you sell me on this being a great unit derrick brown's awesome in the interior um you know clowny had a nice year last year in baltimore i mean that could be scheme and coach related as well uh elijah evero is a good defensive coordinator so maybe you continue to get some stuff out of him uh dj wundum comes over from minnesota really good there last year as well. So that group is okay.

But the back end is a lot of question marks, especially at corner. And then again, like I said, it's still Adam Thielen. They added Deontay Johnson, who may be getting out of there, out of Pittsburgh. Maybe Dave Kanellis is a talent maximizer. I was anti-Tampa last year and went up against Dave Kanellis as a talent maximizer I was anti Tampa last year and went up against Dave Kanellis who's now the head coach who was the offensive coordinator at Tampa last year maybe he can unpack something here with with Bryce Young I just don't really see it five and a half feels like too much and five and a half on Denver feels

like too much as well and I think you kind of agree there as well so we can unpack Carolina first and then kind of go back and forth on Denver. But any thoughts on Carolina first? Yeah, so it was RAS, Red Angle Sports, released the over on four and a half, which moved it to five and a half. But now we're looking at five and a half plus money. I mean, that's, I don't know.

I struggle with that. I guess my only concern is the Canales stuff because, I mean, we were dead, I mean, not dead wrong, but pretty much dead wrong. Last year, I was dead wrong with Tampa Bay. I thought they were going to be not good. Yeah.

So like, I mean, he made the most out of an offensive line. That was what we consider to be not good. We, I mean, it was just kind of a scheming thing that I think he helped. I mean,

make the most out of Baker Mayfield. It was like literally dead in the water, you know, prior, I think I didn't into the bucks. Like I still don't think he's very good, but you know, whatever he played really well.

Um, and so like, I don't know, maybe very good, but you know, whatever he played really well. Um, and so like, I don't know, maybe Bryce young can get something together. I, I, Adam Thielen like basically died at the end of last season. Uh,

Xavier Leggett, I just think it was a terrible first round pick in terms of like what they spent money or like what they spent draft capital on, like that high in the draft thing. He's fine. He's not like an immediate contributor. So, um,

I don't know. I'm pretty low on this team in general under five and a half is interesting, but the Dave Canales stuff, it's almost kind of like the Shane Steichen stuff last year. I'm trying to learn my lesson on, you know, like some of these coaches just are great coaches. Like, I don't know, like they're, they figure it out. They have an edge and they're going to implement that. So, I mean, he is talking like he's a massive boomer though. He's like, we're going to run the ball a ton. You know, we're going to do this. Like, I mean, I don't know he's a massive boomer. He's like, we're going to run the ball a ton. You know, we're going to do this. I mean, I don't know.

I just don't know if the defense is good enough to keep up with that or the offense is good enough to run the ball consistently. But that's my only concern there. And then Denver, yeah, I mean, just tons of concern. I mean, I don't know. Do you want to go in more to them? I mean, they're like, they just have concerns. It's such a great test of like if Sean Payton's system air quotes matters like if it matters and

he's able to implement it and bo nicks looks reasonable then they'll probably win seven or eight games but i just feel like that's such a very very unlikely outcome yeah i think that's really it it's a um it's a bottom three roster. They don't have talent. They don't have talent. Demaree Mathis is still going to play for them. I mean, is that real? He's literally the worst corner in the league. Yeah, he won't start, but he might be needed.

Look, they went out and they added guys that couldn't get on the field for other teams last year. Levi Wallace lost his job basically in Pittsburgh. They messed around with where to put him. He played a little bit because there were other injuries, Levi Wallace lost his job basically in Pittsburgh. They messed around with where to put him. And like, you know, he was, he played a little bit cause there were other injuries, but at this point he's a big bodied corner and just lost his step a little

bit. So he's going to be needed to play on the opposite side of Patrick's retain. That's who again is like the talent on the team. I don't want to throw you under the bus at all. Cause I, you don't spend time in the weeds on the defensive side like i do can you name an edge rusher for denver um well i can because i'm looking at pff um okay

we have it's not good it's not a good group baron baron oh i guess he's like a left like a linebacker edge yeah um and then cooper uh jonathan cooper i again i don't really know much about these guys yeah that's the point right they've been there and I don't really know much about these guys. Yeah, that's the point, right? They've been there, and you don't know them off the top of your head because they're not making impactful plays week in and week out. It's not like, oh, they were able to win a game because they generated so much pressure up front. It's just not a good unit.

They have some – their linebackers really struggle in coverage. That's going to be an issue for them as well. The interior of the defensive line isn't good. So like, yeah, you have Patrick Sutan, who's fantastic, but like the rest of it is not great. Brandon Jones starting safety because they let Justin Simmons go. Brandon Jones couldn't find the field really in Miami for the last couple of years, struggled to stay healthy and then was behind other guys when he was healthy.

He was like the third rotational safety. He was going to be getting significant snaps. P.J. Locke, second-year guy, starting now as well. So offensive line is good, but this team does not feel like they're built to come from behind at all, and it doesn't feel like a defense that can keep the teams in games. Bo Nix has to be the guy. They have to get up early, run the ball really well with Williams and P Ryan,

and then just kind of control it. So like low scoring games is their path, but I don't think the defense can like supplement that and like really sustain that for them. Cause I don't think we had like Josh Reynolds is your big splash in the off season to be like a field stretcher and a difference maker. I just, I don't see it in that division where they do have the Raiders,

but I think we think the Chargers are probably a little bit improved. The Chargers schedule is pretty soft. The Chiefs still exist. So like 5.5 at plus money on the under at plus 120. Under 6 flat on Caesars is minus 140. I'd go with the plus 120 under five and a half. I think this is another very, very viable look. Just not a lot of playmakers.

Doesn't feel like a team that can compete in the way footballs play nowadays. And let's look drastically wrong on Bo Nix. And Sean Payton is that guy. He might be. He also had Drew Brees, who was pretty damn good. And again, like a defense that could hold up. And I don't think he has that this year. I think it's funny because this team is almost transforming into drew B breeze early year,

like teams where the defense was just so bad and they had like one or two good guys. And then like drew breeze just had to will them to any win that they could have, but they don't have drew breeze. So it's like one of those where that's a pretty important missing piece there. And on top of that, like they don't have, I mean, the receivers, I think this is one of the worst receiving cores in the league too. I'm really talking about like Cortland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, Josh Reynolds. I mean, it's just like a bunch of Jags, honestly.

Like I think Cortland Sutton is fine. I mean, like he's okay. I guess there's like a, you know, quote alpha, but like the rest of the guys are very unproven. I mean, like he's okay, I guess there's like a, you know, quote alpha, but like the rest of the guys are very unproven. I mean, Marvin Mims couldn't crack the field at all last year. I mean, there are guys, they had little Jordan Humphrey playing over Marvin Mims at times. I mean, this is crazy. So I don't know. I, I struggled to see it with the Broncos, but yeah, I don't know. I feel like I'm pretty comfortable fading them. It's not something I'm going out of my way to bet, but I think that if I had to take a bet, it'd probably be the under.

Yeah, plus 120, five and a half under on FanDuel is, I think, a viable look. So those are kind of my favorites and yours as well. So I think that's a nice way to get started, right? Some of these win totals, again, they're out there. Shop a little bit. We have a tool on the site. Again, 4-4.com. Search around. You can find futures tools.

You can look at any of the player futures, team futures, win totals, division prices, all that stuff on the site as well. So, all right, Connor. Good stuff, man. Anything else with people before we wrap? We will be having a couple more announcements in the coming weeks we have hired a couple other people super excited about that we'll have more bets in the discord everything um so yeah announcements to come stoked about that um brought in some really great analysts i think they'll help

you know change the game for us so excited yep excited about that stay tuned follow on twitter uh for that and again if you're hanging out with on youtube now uh or wherever you're listening subscribe to wherever you are uh four four bets on youtube uh move the line wherever you listen to podcasts we appreciate that we'll continue to come in here uh yeah kicker futures maybe jeff i don't know i'm trying to convince connor to uh you know bet kicker props this year uh he's he's he's tossing around the idea and maybe use use your help here so yeah we just want to continue to find unique ways that we can find edges to win because we find that winning is fun. We find that subscribers like winning as well.

So we're going to try to get to next time. Thanks, everyone.