Move The Line - Our FAVORITE 2023 NFL Player Prop Bets We CAN'T STOP Betting!

Episode Date: August 3, 2023

Join us as we dive deep into the world of NFL player prop bets for the upcoming 2023 NFL season. Get ready for a thrilling ride as we share our absolute favorite player prop bets we simply can't stop betting on!From breakout stars to seasoned veterans, we've meticulously analyzed the stats, trends, and insider information to bring you the most promising prop bets. Whether you're a die-hard football fan or a seasoned sports bettor, this episode is packed with valuable insights and top-notch predictions.Join us as we explore the latest odds, discuss player performances, and break down the top player prop bets that could yield big wins. Don't miss out on this golden opportunity to stay ahead of the game and make well-informed betting decisions.Timestamps:00:00 - Intro05:04 - Calvin Ridley Bet09:02 - Amon-Ra St. Brown Prop11:53 - Dre Greenlaw tackles and assists15:11 - Matthew Stafford Unders17:41 - Brian Robinson Over 725 Yards23:20 - Jaelan Phillips: 8.75 Sacks on DraftKings28:51 - Dak Prescott Under INTs31:48 - Kayvon Thibodeaux36:55 - Elijah Moore: Should You Bet on Him?40:45 - Listener question on Chris Olave43:27 - Jonathan Taylor Under Bets47:11 - OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Monotone on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/monotonefootbalVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by Connor Allen. Connor, what's going on buddy? Ready for some props today. Yeah, it's a little bit different than normal. We're getting into some player props. We got on a great guest. I mean, I am a prop guy, so I love breaking down the divisions, love breaking down the players, but there's something special about player props that gets me going a little extra.

Heart of what we do here. We have the NFC in the books, breaking up, as Connor mentioned, the divisional previews a little bit here. We'll be back next week with Sharp Clark. We'll take on the AFC. But today we have nine props for you to bet. Right now these are fresh. This is not anything that Connor and I have pumped out anywhere else, so some unique content.

And as you mentioned, we have a guest this week that spends a lot of time in the prop streets as well on Twitter. It's our friend Monotone Football. You can find him on Twitter, at Monotone Football. The limits as far as the handle got to him, he's only got the one L. But you type on Monotone Football and you'll find him anyway. What's going on, buddy? Welcome to the show. Yeah, no, I appreciate you guys having me.

Obviously, it's that great time of year, man. You can smell the football. You really can. It's so close, right? We're done with 60 days away, 80 days away, 35 days away from the NFL season. I couldn't be more than happy to be sitting here talking with you guys about NFL props. Yeah, I cannot wait. We're recording here on Thursday. We'll have a Hall of Fame game.

We will have props if you decide you want to get your hands dirty and you want to bet preseason Hall of Fame game props or sides and totals. We are here. It is this time. Speculation continues as we get approaching the first week of the season, but there are props out there for you. We will not have those today. I don't think we'll have those being pushed out regularly from Connors. We like to win and not that you can't win there, but I don't feel like we have an edge currently there. Hey, maybe as the season goes along, we're trying to find new ways that we can get down and find edges. So I don't want to say never for us in terms of preseason props, but maybe we'll ease into that as we get closer to some of the more predictable

games, Connor, when we get more regulars playing a little bit. Well, they don't have any like stuff on regular sports books right now, at least what I saw. So it's all just like prize picks underdog. And I mean, a lot of these guys just, you just have no idea how much they're going to play, which is such a big factor in handicapping props. So, I mean, Chris traveler is going to see some time.

Zach Wilson's going to see some time. And obviously we all know Zach Wilson sucks, but like, you know, who's even playing against, you know, like, so, so there's so many variables that like you said i'm probably gonna put a slip out there maybe tweet it out it'll be very much for fun um because you know football's back got to do something but uh yeah i would not take it too seriously at least until we get a little bit more clarity on some playing time straveler rushing yards over something like that i could see that making its way on the slip so yeah dagle played the under i saw that and i was okay at him i mean what be able but like why you think he can run i mean this guy can run no i like it even more now the day

will take the other side so uh that's fantastic uh all right so we're gonna again be here every week leading up to the start of the season uh again subscribe if you are hanging out with us on youtube four for four bets is a bets centric youtube channel that is uh you know again you can have four for four football if you're looking for more of the fantasy stuff we have that channel as well but our four for four bets page is new uh supporting the free content thumbs up comments all those things go a long way and we appreciate that a lot you jump in the chat let us know what a favorite season-long prop that you have is or if you're listening to podcast form five five-star reviews, thumbs up, subscribing, all those things, again, go a long way in helping us and supporting the free content.

We're getting close. It's a great time to scoop a betting sub at 444. No matter what you're doing in the football speculation space, the betting sub is what you want to do. It gets you access to all of the in-season stuff, all the articles, rankings, projections, DFS, high stakes. Connor Daigle and myself are in a high stakes ffpc draft right now connor is doing a fantastic job as he has done for years past in documenting that on all the conversations that go on you definitely want to check that out again the subscriber only discord is the crown jewel of it although that's where all the bets come from uh you can have dialogue with like-minded folks that are in the betting streets all season long as well. Cheaper ways to do it. You can go over to just 444.com slash plans to scoop the betting sub. You can also, if you have access, you're in a state that has bet MGM and you have

not taken advantage of that yet, you can get a betting sub for just $10. All that information is in the show notes as well, or you can just DM us, message us. We'll happily help walk you through that, but a great way to get access to everything we do. Again, comparison to other stuff in the market, I think by far, again, I am biased. We are branded behind me. It's the best bang for your buck out there in terms of anything that you're going to pay money for this season. So again, the picks are going to pay for itself and hopefully we can help you out with nine of them to start here as well. Like I said, Connor and I have been pumping out props futures all that stuff all season long we have an article on the site that is kind of uh capturing all that none of these are in there so these are unique

fresh picks uh and connor could continue the for the first one to get us started yeah so this this first one here i think i want to be a little bit off the wall just in general with some of these because again it's a show it's a little bit different than some of my written stuff. So I'm going to go with Calvin Ridley here, a guy that I've been banging the table for, for a long time here. 1,000 plus receiving yards, a plus 155 at FanDuel, and a little bit of sprinkle at 1,500 plus receiving yards, a 20 to one at DraftKings. I think that that's pretty mispriced. And if we look at who Calvin Ridley is as a wide receiver, Matt Harmon has charted 390 wide receivers in the last 10 years.

Calvin Ridley against man coverage has been one of the best separators consistently. This is despite playing on the outside predominantly. Obviously, it's a lot easier to get open when you're in the slot. So playing on the outside, he's a true alpha wide out here. And now he's going into offense with an ascending quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence proved last year towards the end of the season that he could really put the team on his back, could wind up, you know, end up basically carrying that squad. And he made the most out of Christian Kirk, out of Zay Jones.

Like if we look at those guys prior to Trevor Lawrence, Zay Jones' best season was 682 yards in 2018. His in-between stats were pretty bad. Christian Kirk, I mean, was fine. Never had a thousand yard season prior to playing with Trevor Lawrence. Now you have Calvin Ridley, who I think if he is the same guy

that he was when he was in Atlanta, is going to absolutely crush the season. So I'm bullish on him. Basically all the ladders you want with Calvin Ridley. That being said, I would prefer the ladders over like his regular over-under, which is 875 and a half, because if he's not who he was the floor is a little bit lower you know like they're you know if he's not significantly better than zay and kirk the floor could be lower but that being said

if he is i think he crushes i love it you know i'm on board uh we tried to get him in our ffpc draft we kind of lost that battle a little bit to daigle but uh you know i wrote him up in a wide receiver article that i did on the site a couple of days ago. You make a great point. Like guys nowadays, they win a little bit more in the slot. And for him to do what he did, and again, like you can spare me. I think it's like, who cares? He's got fresh legs.

He hasn't played in a little bit, like whatever. He's still in his late twenties. I'm not super worried about that. It's not like a couple of camp video highlights that are sparking this interest. He won on the outside. He wins on the outside better than really anyone in the league. When you look at the rate that he ran on the outside, no one really even came close to his production last year playing primarily on the outside. I think DK Metcalf was the only guy that's running almost 85% plus on the outside that topped 1,000 yards.

Really did that 88% on the outside and had like almost 1,400 yards last time he played a full season. So I'm with you there. I think it's a good number. I like the way that you kind of framed it too with maybe there's a little bit more floor, but like if he is that dude still and is kind of in the range of 1,400, 1,500 yards, like 20 to 1, pretty good number. Yeah, Montone, any thoughts on Ridley before you get us started

with your first one? Yeah, no i like the angle of the essential or sorry ascending quarterback mixed with a very good coaching staff i always like to look at the coaching staff right i do trust peterson to scheme him open one final thing too that no one really hit on i think it is a little bit important to consider that this team could have went out and gotten anyone as their wide receiver one to match with trevor lawrence right they were clearly building out this Kirk, this Jones. We got some tertiary pieces, right? But they clearly went out to spend to get their number one to pair with Trevor Lawrence. The guy they ended up on was Calvin Ridley. I think great value. Obviously, the camp videos, you can't take them too seriously, but it is fun to watch him just go out there and

absolutely destroy so far. I'm a big Ridley fan. I'm looking forward to this season as well. Yeah. Dude looks different. I mean, I don't know what to tell you. Like if you watch Zay Jones run, you know, a little route action and you see the footwork,

it's just different. I'm sorry. I, it's like confirmation bias a little bit. It's not surprising. It's kind of, I think what Connor and I thought, and then you see it and it's like,

no man, like let's, let's go. So do it. Yeah. All right. Let's talk about some football. First one, buddy. Sounds good. you see it and it's like no man like let's let's go so do it yeah all right lots of football first one buddy sounds good we'll start out with amon ross st brown over five and a half receiving touchdowns you can get that one at plus 110 over on caesars right now definitely love the plus money

here for one of my favorite young wide receivers in the league obviously it feels a little bit kind of corny to talk up amon ross st Brown as some mystery guy. I think we all know how absolutely awesome he is from the first two seasons, right? We saw your number one five touchdowns pretty immediately making an impact. And last year, six touchdowns, which did cover this number in a second season. When I looked at the first thing, right, I went back after every season. I do love to watch back all my bets. I like to watch the full game. I like to give myself a little bit more perspective on what I did right, what I did wrong. Amon Ross St. Brown was someone I quite

frequently bet in the red zone last year in that touchdown market and someone that was kind of surprised when he only had six touchdowns when I checked at the end of the year. When I watched back, man, I can remember three instances right now where he was tackled inside the three yard line. This is a guy that was constantly being held inside the red zone. So I went and I looked at the stats. I wanted to see if it was kind of reaffirming what I saw in film. And it was, he was third in the league in red zone yards, only behind the two, you know, Travis Kelsey and JJ or Justin Jefferson. Sorry. So when you look at that and you realize this guy was an absolute red zone demon, he was a force. He just wasn't actually, you know, catching that line. He wasn't

getting through. And to me, that does scream regression. Additionally, when we look at the rushing game, they had a running back, Jamal Williams, 17 touchdowns, man. I absolutely love the guy. Amazing story. Love that he got paid in the off season. Love that. It's not happening again. We're not David Montgomery. Even if he does have a good season, we're talking about 10. You know what I mean? Gibbs, I like the pickup. We can likely see him slot into that Gibbs role. I don't think we're going to – or sorry, into that Swift role. I don't think we're going to see a lot of different production there. I think this is – six feels like the floor to me.

And the fact that we're getting it at plus money. But I think this Lions team is going to be better in general, right? This is a team that's actually coming in with some preseason expectation, strong offensive line, some faith in Jared Goff, even to be a good, you know, kind of cruise commander out there. I think Amon Ross St.

Brown's in store for a great season this year. Yeah. I love it. Connor, what are your thoughts on Amon Ross? Yeah. So I was looking at it. I think Dagle actually tweeted it out.

He was tackled inside the five yard line seven times last year. And so I actually looked at this yesterday and I played a little bit. I'm on raw to score eight touchdowns on FanDuel is like plus 220. I think that's probably what it should closer to be, should be closer to honestly, like as like a regular line. So getting plus 200 or more on that is good. I think laddering at a 10 touchdowns is also very viable. I think that's around five to one, something like that. Because again, like you said, if there's a little bit of regression, he continues to be a target hog. The offense continues to ascend. Like there's so many different positive factors that capturing that high end range of outcomes there can really help pay off in a big way. So yeah, I like the over five and a

half, but I also think that you could like ladder that a little higher. All right. First one for me, I know where my bread's buttered. You know, I'm, I'm not going to spend a lot of time this year in the offensive streets. Connor is very, very good at that. I will do it when a line catches my eye. Staying on the defensive side of the ball, we are going to hang out in the tackles and sacks streets this season. I pushed a couple of tackle props through for subscribers already.

This is one that I've done a little bit more homework on and feel really good about it. This is available on DraftKings. Dre Greenlaw, over 115 and a half tackles and assists. This is minus 110 on DraftKings. Dre Greenlaw, over 115.5 tackles and assists. This is minus 110 on DraftKings. Fred Warner gets all the attention in San Francisco, rightfully so. Dude is the best all-around linebacker in the league. Greenlaw, though, is pretty damn good in his own right.

He topped his mark last season at, I think, 130, and he played fewer than 61% of the snaps in three games. He sat out two games entirely, one due to injury, and then one was week 18. So I haven't projected for 6.7 snaps per tackles and assist. It's an elite mark. It's the seventh highest in the league for a starting linebacker. There are a few scheme notes here that I think are really important. The Niners last year under D'Amico Ryans had at least two linebackers on

the field for 88.3% of their defensive snaps. Steve Wilkes is there now as a defensive coordinator. The last time he was calling plays defensively, he played with at least two linebackers on 97.2% of the defensive snaps. It's going to be a nice spike there for Greenlaw. Aziz Al-Zahar has gone to Tennessee. He was their backup linebacker last year. He's going to be a guy that we play a lot this year. He's going to be the main guy in Tennessee. Their third linebacker now, Oren Brooks, has significantly stepped down. So I think you're going to see even more playing time for Warner and Greenlaw here. So unless we see a multi-week injury, he should cruise past his mark. over 115 and a half tackles and assist

on dk for my boy green law again bakes in a little bit of injury risk and again you know missing some time last year and still topping this by 15 tackles i feel like we have a little bit of wiggle room so uh chasing it over in a season-long prop may be not for everyone but uh yeah green law is going to be the guy this year and like this number quite a bit. I wish I had something to add, but I don't really know much about that. You know, that's out of the ball. So I'm just going to let you cook. Stu, you got anything? I love this.

I love this prop so much. I watched so much 49ers last year. I cashed Greenlaw in a playoff game. And you mentioned it, Aziz Alshair, probably the best third rotational linebacker there is. That group was so elite last year, and it really wasn't talked about enough. You mentioned it. Warner does get a lot of the credit, a lot of the cool stuff he does in the receiving game. But man, Greenlaw's the guy you really want to bet on. He's the guy that gets down and dirty, gets downhill, attacks the run. I'm such a big

Greenlaw fan. I did not know you obviously were placing this bet, but I'm definitely joining you on this one. I love this spot. Love it. Yeah. And Wilks likes to blitz his linebackers a little bit more than D'Amico Ryan's does, but that's something that Fred Warner does outstanding at. So you're going to see that kind of, and we don't get a lot of tackles when you're blitzing the quarterback. That makes sense. So you'll probably see that from Greenlaw more than you see it from, I'm sorry, you'll see it more from Warner than you were for Greenlaw. So we might have some opportunities, even with a name recognition, to maybe take some unders on Fred Warner, just because people expect him to be really good. And I think Greenlaw benefits from that as well.

So Connor, back to you, number two. Yeah, my second one's not as fun as the first one. Obviously, playing alternate ladders is a blast. My second one here is going to be something that we have talked about a little bit here, but Matthew Stafford unders, I think 3,800 passing yards is available. Also 12 and a half interceptions. You're laying a little bit more juice there. I love the 12 and a half interceptions because I think there's so many more outs where his

health is still a serious concern. Cooper cups already injured. The offensive line projects to be one of the worst in the league. The defense is basically Aaron Donald and a bunch of jabronis. It's like literally their team is paper thin, uh, in terms of them, I think shifting gears and shifting kind of their philosophy. So really here I get if Stafford plays a full season with Cooper cup and the offensive line is competent, it's probably going over 3,800 yards. I get that. But all of those ifs need to happen in order for him to hit that. If Cooper cups goes down, I mean,

Matthew Stafford is great, but throwing a van Jeffersonerson and puka i don't know honey print in the sewer not nakua whatever it is you know like throwing to those guys like he's not gonna throw over 4 000 yards there so i don't know it's one of those things that it's very fragile and so an under on a guy like stafford where all he has to do is play a game in most sports books and so i think the under there is a pretty interesting look at something that I don't think has been talked about enough. When Pukas and tutus are heavily involved, I think you want to probably fade, you know, the quarterback involved. So any thoughts there for you? I almost came in here with a Cooper cup under the, unfortunately, the injury stuff did kind of mess up the lines. I don't really want to bet on that right now,

but it's kind of the same thing. This offense, man, it's brutal, even the defense as well. But who knows what's going to happen this year. I will say if there's one coach outside of maybe like a Vrabel that I trust to kind of put together all these misfit toys and somehow make them okay, I do have a little bit of trust in McVay right there, but it's really the injuries.

There's so many that are going to stack up. There's no offensive line protection, right? So it's not like we're even out there comfortable that Stafford's going to make it more than three games. So I definitely would lean on the under on both Stafford and cup in this offense. I think under is just probably the good spot to be in. The only problem is like the defense is so poor that they're good. Like they're just, the offensive line is so poor. Like again, that can lead to Stafford getting hurt. So that's another out that you have on the underside. They're just going to have to be forced to throw quite a bit.

So, but again, like I think it just, we talk about this often too, just from a overall arching approach for, for season long totals, leaning unders, just obviously the bet to a way to go.

And you've done a lot of homework on that too, Connor. Yeah. I think just overall, like, you know, obviously season long long unders generally if you're betting props are good look interceptions i think we're 66 of the last two years on the under passing yards we're 74 like outrageously going under a lot of that's due to injury offensive efficiency offensive line efficient inefficiency things like that because all it takes is one piece to crumble

here also for this i would not be. The more I think about this Ram team is like, they go really run heavy and then they have to throw their way out of the shitter, you know, because they get their defenses getting torched. Like I imagine that's probably what they're going to do to try and hide the offensive line. Like, so that again, leans towards more unders. Uh, that being said before Stafford or cup or anyone like gets, I don't know, not hurt, but maybe you don't last whole season. There's going to be some pretty wild lines. I think for like Cooper cup, I'm really interested to see what they float his lines at for like

week one, because yeah, I just have no idea. Like, is it going to be six and a half or is it going to be like eight and a half? Like it was when he was like elite, you know? So I don't know if it's something I'm going to bet right on week one, because again, like is he a hundred percent after his injury is Stafford able to still chuck it? How's something I'm going to bet right on week one because, again, is he 100% after his injury? Is Stafford able to still chuck it? How often are they even going to throw? I don't know all the answers to those yet,

but I'm just interested to see what sportsbooks do with it because I personally have no idea. Rams are going to be a mess. Yeah, definitely something to watch. All right, we are back to you, Motun, number two. Sounds good. I'll be going over to my home team in the District of Columbia. I'm going Brian Robinson, over 725.5 rushing yards over on Fandle. You get a nice 70 yard gap from most sports books as well, which you always like to see. I know you guys are big

on this, but line shopping should always be the number one priority, right? You're not going to be going to the grocery store and purposely buying something that's more expensive, right? So definitely get that best line. And here's the thing. Brian Robinson was my least favorite player last year. I mean, as a Washington sports fan, you kind of nailed the whole idea when you're talking about the Rams of how about we run a lot to cover up for our terrible offensive line. And guess what? We made absolutely zero improvements to the offensive line in the offseason. It's going to be another year of terrible offensive line play. And we still got Ron Rivera at the helm. And hey, Riverboat Ron, we know he likes to take some risks

every once in a while. At least that's where he got the nickname from. I don't know where that mentality was last year, though. We ran the ball on first down more than any other team in the second half of the year that didn't have Derrick Henry on it. And we didn't have Derrick Henry on our team either. We had Brian Robinson, right? So as a fan, that's pretty infuriating. But as I'm going back and I'm looking this year, right, to me for running back props, I always want to make sure that a guy can get this in, you know, 12, 13, 14 games, right? So a 12 game pace is 60 yards per game at 725. He hit this number last year, and that's not even accounting for the fact that he got shot four weeks before the season started, right? I mean, no matter how you look at this,

no matter what doctor you consult, I think everyone is pretty clearly going to give you that same opinion of there's no way he should be handling a real NFL running back load that soon, right? But he still did. And as the season got better, you start to see a little bit of that explosiveness come. You saw even the pass catching a tiny little bit, not that I want to count on that whatsoever, but we saw him get better and better as the season went on, which was starting to give me a little bit of confidence that this is the guy we drafted. Let's look at competition. JD McKissick is out of town right now.

We got Antonio Gibson sliding over to that pass-catching role. It's not like we brought in any serious competition. It's Chris Rodriguez Jr., sixth round out of Kentucky, no draft capital. He's also the same prospect as Brian Robinson, by the way. This is a guy that runs straight up the middle. There's not really any pass catching his game. I'm not sure the point of this draft pick outside of just depth. I think they want a depth piece, someone that they can kind of interchangeably use to calm down Robinson's workload. But I don't think he's going to get that 16 carry per game mark he got at the end of last year. But I have no confidence in this Washington

offense to consistently move the ball down the field with Sam Howell at the head. It's a big question mark. I'm not going to tell you how this Washington offense is going to go. What I will tell you is that 725 yards, I think it's a pretty disrespectful number for a guy that I think that can get this on a 12 game pace, right? I'm not asking for more than 60 yards per game. I'm not asking for high volume. I don't even think Brian Robinson is going to be that efficient this year. I don't think he's ever going to be that efficient. But if Ron Rivera is still at the helm, this offensive line is still terrible, and I don't see a meaningful way that we're going to pass the ball down the field, then I think it's going to be a lot of the same kind of things I was seeing last year.

Predictable runs on first down, hammered the ball up the middle, a lot of punting. Not the best bet as a fan, but I do think it is one of my favorite bets of the offseason so far. Connor, we were a fan but i do think it is one of my favorite bets of the offseason so far connor we were a fan last year we had you know big outrights uh you know rookie of the year offensive rookie of the year uh pre-shooting uh so then we were all definitely cheering for him uh post shooting it looked like we we thought it was and again i don't use this term uh lightly we thought the bet was dead um but again it came back to life a little bit. Yeah. I mean, so I was at a bachelor party and we were, I was looking at a kiosk at a casino and I saw like 80 to one, Brian Robinson off to rookie of the year. I'm like, oh man, this is an awesome bet. You know, like, I mean, 80 to one, like this should be like 25 to one,

because it already moved like, you know, 30 to one, most other shops, you know, in a big role, maybe he scored 10 touchdowns and got there. I've, I've never seen the life drain out of a group chat so much when we get the news that he had been shot like a week later, I was like, Holy shit. Like he's okay. Right. Obviously, you know, he is okay. And then they're like, yeah, they shot him in the leg too. I'm like, you gotta be fucking kidding me. Like, are you, we like what, what an unbelievable occurrence there. And you know, obviously he turned out to be, I got not very efficient. We have projected for around 800 rushing yards. So like, again, pretty solid value on the over, um, like as long as he plays 12, 13 games, I'm sure that he'll get there. That's like, that's the big thing. And I think he'll probably be a little bit more efficient than last year,

just because again, he was shot, rushed back out of the field because they had literally no one. And Antonio Gibson, I mean, they keep talking up Antonio Gibson every year and then he doesn't do anything like they just don't want to use him. Like, you know, they're like, oh, maybe you can be a change of pace guy. He played some special teams. Remember last year for like a little bit, like got like sent to like the dog house.

So yeah, I mean, it's going to be the Brian Robinson show. They're not going to want to let Sam Howell cook the entire year or anything like that. So yeah, I like the over there. I don't know what other alts you could play. I mean, maybe a thousand yards in play too, if he hits like the upper range, but I i mean he would have to play probably a full season for that yeah and i just want to say at that point too also how gives you a little bit of

rushing upside of his own right we know how those rushing quarterbacks can open up some lanes for their guys well i'm not saying how is going to be more than a 30 rush yards per game kind of guy but at least you got a couple factors there that, you know, give you that confidence. Yeah. I think there's a little bit upside there. We're, we're pro Sam Howell here in the show, so we can get there. All right. I'm going to spend more time in the tackle streets this season than sacks, but I am going to do, and I've been doing some homework on sacks and sacks. I find they're a little bit more of a one-off and there's a few other entities that go into sack production. we know over the last few years found out you know just more work sacks are really a quarterback set so

a combination of looking at really elite skills from a pass rusher standpoint the usage that can get us there and then the matchups in terms of like quarterbacks that are slow to release the ball along with the bad offensive line matchups we're going to find some spots here and there to pick on sacks. And we're going to go with a sack prop season long here to keep us going with Jalen Phillips from Miami. We're going to go over eight and a half or 8.75 sacks on DraftKings at minus 120. Saw a little bit of a breakout for him last year in his second year in Miami. The underlying pressure metrics are significantly better than what a breakout for him last year in his second year in miami the underlying pressure metrics are significantly better than what this sack production was last year only had

seven sacks uh but he had top 10 pressure grade on pff it was even better in true pass sets he's also top 10 in pressure win rates um and when you look at other elite edge rushers in the league their rush rate which is basically the percentage of snaps where they're rushing the passer is like 97 99 right like nick bosa um you know miles garrett those guys are putting their hand in the dirt and rushing the quarterback almost every time that is a passing down but miami who last year with josh boyer is the defensive coordinator and then you know from the holdover from b Flores, they blitz a ton. And a lot of times when you have these blitz heavy schemes, they disguise what they're doing in terms of who's coming.

Phillips dropped in the coverage a bunch last year. He only rushed the passer on 83% of his snaps on passing downs. So again, in comparison to some of these other guys that are top 10 in pressure grade, those guys are going to the quarterback almost every down. You know, five out of six for Phillips is very different. This is not a feature of Vic Fangio's defense. So a new scheme this year. They have a lot more talent.

Even with Jalen Ramsey gone, the talent overall in this defense is much improved. Fangio lets his big dogs eat. We're going to see improvement here. Phillips is going to get significantly more opportunities i'm going to take over 8.75 sacks on draft kings for phillips uh call right now again you don't spend a lot of time in these streets uh but any thoughts here on uh miami's defense as a whole or anything on phillips i mean you just know way too much about this shit i mean this is unbelievable like what i'm like listening to this i'm like what are you talking about i mean this is wild you know i'm like like, listen to this. I'm like, what are you talking about? I'm like, this is wild. You know, I'm like, holy shit.

But yeah, I mean, it makes sense. We got to be in the, we got to get in. Yeah. How dirty are your hands? I mean, my God, you're deep in there. Um, no, I love it, man. It's, it's incredible stuff. I think that over 8.75 is great.

I know we have high expectations of the Dolphins defense, regardless. Obviously the blow Jalen Ramsey there is not great. I think, you know, obviously a couple of coverage sacks would have been nice to add to Jalen Phillips' resume, but I'm sure he'll probably still get there anyways. Is there any, like, are there any sack alts? Like, is that a thing? Okay, probably, depending on the book, we know our friends take advantage of that 365.

I don't know if they have alt lines on sacks. I believe, trying to gauge with some other people, because I wasn't doing this much last year, I believe FanDuel has team sacks uh per game which is actually more interesting to me than having to like pinpoint a player per game like if i feel like there's an edge on a like a team you know matchup quarterback matchup like look we know like baker mayfield every year is one of like the worst in terms of time to throw he holds the football too long justin fields holds the football too long um some guys just don't like jared golf gets rid of the football derrick carr gets rid holds the football too long. Justin Fields holds the football too long. Some guys just don't like Jared golf gets rid of the football. Derek Carr gets rid of the football.

Like there are opportunities to find both, both sides of team props. So I'm excited if FanDuel continues to roll that out. Hopefully Caesars allows us to get down with some sack stuff too, but yeah, it's definitely something I'm going to be layering in more. There'll definitely be more volume on the tackle side. Cause it's just more predictive, but yeah, sacks are going to be layering in more. There'll definitely be more volume on the tackle side because it's just more predictive. But yeah, sacks are going to be part of the part of the betting package this year. Love it. Absolutely love it. And I know we got another sack prop coming

here later in the show. So Conrad, I can get back to you for your third prop. You can take us home. Yeah, another one, kind of a derivative of something we've talked about before. Dak Prescott under 13 and a half interceptions. I know that he is getting way too much hate 13 and a half interceptions. I know that he is getting way too much hate about, oh, Dak throws interceptions. You know, there's a training camp

highlight of him throwing a terrible ball. You know, again, like the stuff just like doesn't really matter when we look at what this office is going to do. They're going from top six and pace for four consecutive years and Kellen Moore to Mike McCarthy running the office where they said they want to run the ball more. They want to slow the game down. Their total volume of play is going to be way less. Their defense is going to keep them in front of basically almost every single opponent they're playing. Dak is not going to be forced to be making those deep throws downfield in danger areas.

I think we're going to see like a slow-paced control approach from the Cowboys here. And we're going to see the most efficient season of Dak's career, I think, from a lot of metrics. And if we look at it specifically, I mean, he threw for 15 or the last year, but other than that, he's been like, you know, 12,

13, you know, 10. Like he's not like, he's like always a prolific interception thrower. Like he just like lately had a bad year. He's been getting a ton of pub about it because he didn't play very well in the playoffs.

Like, it's like all these different things that I think you can fade recency bias. We haven't projected for like around 12, 12 and a half. I like the under his passing yards. Like the under his interceptions. It's like all these different things that I think you can fade recency bias. We have him projected for around 12, 12.5. I like the underrun as passing yards, like the underrun as interceptions. I think both of those are fantastic looks for a guy that we're going to see really low volume.

Now I'm waiting to release another play, too, on the Cowboys, a reception under for one of the pass catchers because, again, this volume is just going to be significantly, significantly less. So I'm not going to name that yet because I don't want to kill the market because it's only available one place, but that is coming soon. Love it. Yeah. I think you made good points. I think it's reactionary to one year and sounds like it's been reactionary even from just an organizational standpoint, Kellen Moore. I mean, literally like got fired for trying to score too much. It's like, was even the quote, like, I, you know,

I know that it's been referenced a lot, but like, that's what they said what they said like they want like i don't know what they want to do it sounds like they're going to put a little bit more of uh tempered expectations and we'll try to lean heavy on the run uh it's interesting that they're also talking out of both sides of their mouth saying like we really don't want to give tony pollard that type of workload so i don't know who that's going to be z comes back or whatever rojo is featured that can't be a good plan uh so like i it's it's interesting in dallas but i do think their pass rate over expectation is just raw passing volume is down for sure so uh any thoughts on that one yeah i think the only concern i guess on my part is i would say the other three defenses in that division are going to be you know you'd want to be in any other division pretty much if

you're looking to avoid the interception but i will say i i'm on the same page in terms of public perception of like we get these ideas about these players due to like really short samples and i know a year doesn't sound like a short sample but is that prescott's not a rookie right we have a lot of career data to look back on and we can see that he hasn't always been this guy and i really do think the whole cooper rush having like one good game last year really like ended Dak season in the media, right? Like that made it so much worse because everyone was gunning for him the whole time. And now, like you said, we're overreacting to bad throws and training camp. Like, I don't know what we're doing there, but yeah, I do. I do think it's a very high number and I would definitely not be bending the over on that one.

I can tell you that. I will keep will keep his career interception rate oh sorry no you're good i was gonna say his career interception rate after last season is 2.0 he last year had a 3.8 interception rate 15 interceptions the only season over 13 and a half in his entire career so you know i think that there's plenty of uh plenty of room wiggle room on that under there at 13 and a half yeah no i like it uh it's a good look interested to see who the receiver is uh but i will probably join you on that one as well and we'll kick it back to uh monotone football to bring it home for us speaking my love language here i'm very excited about this yeah i had to jump over in the defensive streets you know once

i saw where i was going so we're going cave on todeau over 5.75 sacks on the season. This is one of those spots that I haven't seen it open until just when I was looking earlier today. So I definitely want to obviously hear everyone's thoughts on this one because I've been waiting for a little bit. And this is one too that if you can get those ladders at some point, I would like to ladder because I think if we're going to get a good year, we're really going to get kind of this explosion year. So last year was his rookie season. We saw four sacks. A lot of them were actually kind of against my Washington team, right? It was a little spike performance mid-year. But I think when you go around, when you read all the Giants beat reporters from all the knowledge I've collected,

it's not a hidden secret that he just wasn't in shape going into last year. And that led to some injury problems, that led to some lack of preparedness, and that led to the snaps being far from where we wanted to from a rookie pass rusher that we expected to be in there every snap dominating even towards the end of the season there were multiple times on film where he's out of breath like tired in the corner like this is clearly a guy that came into last season from everything I'm reading from the Giants guys not fully you know in the position where we would have wanted him this year everything's looking great on the training camp perspective right everything he's, he's working out hard. He's taking it seriously. All the Giants guys seem to be in love with it. And I do think that gives us a good base level for the kind of,

you know, taking off in your second year that I'm looking for right here, because I do think this is a very speculative market right here, but I'm loving the matchups we're going to get. Washington has only gotten worse on the offensive line. We're going to get a Rams and who knows what that Rams team could look like. I'm pretty sure we get a Bengals in there. We get a Raiders in there. There's tons of these teams, right, that have these absolutely terrible offensive lines that I think we're going to take advantage of.

I also don't like taking teams with just one pass rusher that everyone has to worry about. I like that D-line is going to be giving people problems, right? It's almost like Thibodeau isn't your number one priority on that defensive line. And I've actually had my most success in the sack market betting on kind of the number two pass rusher option as well. So as we get more of those lines, I'll have more guys in that category, but five and a half, it just seems too low for me. We're asking two more additional sacks from last year for a guy that I believe, you know, is going to take a huge leap this year. So I'm going to take that number 10 out of 10 times, and I'm going to hope that we get some ladder possibilities. I want to sprinkle that 10 sacks.

I want to sprinkle that eight sacks. I want to see him take that true jump in his second season. Yeah, just to bet on talent, I think makes a ton of sense there too, right? Good scheme. They like to get after the quarterback. No problem with that one. And then the number's low too. So I'm kind of with you. It might not be a binary look for me, but if you had access to a little bit more plus money, something that's like seven and a half or eight or something like that, that would definitely be interesting to me. Again, you saw, you just look at his past PFF grades,

just better at the end of the season, right? Got in shape, a little bit more familiar with the scheme, knew what he was being asked to do. And the talent there is through the roof. So I like being on the defensive side too. We knew that's who he was too, like when they the talent there is is through the roof so like it like being on the defensive side too we knew that's who he was too like when they drafted him like you know that was like the big question like he was he should have been played to be the number one overall pick I mean it was like it was always you know bet on talent lazy character issues blah blah blah uh now maybe some of that was true because he wasn't in shape but I mean they

busted us into shape so now it seems like he's good to go. Yeah. And just one more thing, too. Like I will say, like as a prospect profile, I wasn't even a big fan. I don't love taking guys that rely so much on their pure rush ability, their pure athleticism. I like guys with that skill and that finesse. And he really didn't have it too much last year. We saw it improve. But what I will say is the speed is legit. The problem with quantifying speed in college is we don't know. That speed is legit. The problem with, you know, quantifying speed in college is we don't know that burst is legit. That's like, he is an NFL pass rusher and he is a high level NFL pass

rusher. It's just about kind of putting everything else together. And I was glad that he proved me right that even with all the negatives last year, there still is that, you know, pure like speed burst that we saw in that prospect profile. Yeah. Love it. Good stuff. All right. I'm going to, I guess go basic. I'm going to, I guess, go basic. I'm going to mix it up. I'll stay on the offensive side of the ball. Familiar name. And again, if you're watching anything on Twitter,

you're watching Camp Highlights. This is another camp hero currently. The number's a little low, and we like it quite a bit in terms of our projections here at 4-4-4. And that is Elijah Moore over 550 and a half receiving yards. Felt like there's a low number. We have him in like the mid sevens. I don't think anyone's ever questioned the talent here.

Again, like Jets offense in the past has been an absolute mess. And, you know, the quarterback play, obviously abysmal. Moore certainly didn't help, you know, injury issues and whatever that kept him off the field. But I like the setup for him in Cleveland quite a bit. All the camp reports are glowing. I think really outside of like Justin Ross, Richie James, Calvin Ridley, like camp hype videos on social,

like Elijah Moore's right in the mix. He could separate even from the slot. He's done a good job of that. He's actually had a really strong forced missed tackle rate. And that's carried over from his college days. And it's not a big guy, but that seems to be in terms of like a predictive and sticky stat, it carries over. So he does have an opportunity.

It's definitely a better quarterback situation, the better offensive situation overall. So I'm going to buy the hype a little bit. 550 is a little bit of a low number, even going over here. And again, like our we're bullish here too. And that was some confirmation bias for me too.

So Connor, I'd love to get your thoughts on Elijah Moore. Yeah. I'm trying to look up alts right now. Cause this is like, I love, I love him. I mean, I'm so, so in on this. I was actually trying to convince Paulson on it the other day. I don't even think that they have like lines up for seven 50 or a thousand plus receiving yards, because I think there's a legit chance where, I mean, just so many different things can, can go right for him. You know, I think that this different spot here, like, I mean, it can just be like the high-end outcome is just so, so strong for this guy. Everyone loved him coming out, right?

It was just like a, you know, just a bad situation. And again, like I said, he has to own a little bit of that. Like I can't throw it all on Zach Wilson. But again, like he's got to stay on the field and get there. And that's the problem with taking it over like this in the season long stuff, Stu. But what are your thoughts on Elijah Moore? Yeah, he's an interesting one.

This is a, this is a fantasy Twitter favorite, right? People love to hate him. They love to love him. But for me, I would have to say he's a guy. I think I just want like nothing of like, I just don't want the over. I don't want the under, like, I don't want another year of guessing. Maybe I don't have a strong a lean as you guys. Because I've seen the flashes on tape, right?

Clearly, there's talent there. It's just like another one of these guys has a little bit of gadget ability, can do a lot of unique stuff. I think we've really pushed those guys to the front. We love to bet on them. And then we just kind of wait for a couple of years. But the opportunity is so good. We have a great quarterback here.

We don't have a clear wide receiver one. I mean, Cooper is the wide receiver one. But in terms of talent, right, and his age, we're not really impressed. So there's clear opportunity. There's clear pathway. I'm kind of with Connor. If I wanted anything, I'm going like a thousand. Like, let's bet on him to actually show off that talent and be the guy all year long.

Sitting on that kind of 500 and hoping he's a solid wide receiver three wide receiver two at times that's where i get a little bit more scared just because i truly have no clue i think the bull case too for him so we think about it right like obviously great talent if like we play the game of comic we did with calvin really like if deshaun watson is who he was in houston uh he can easily two fantasy relevant, you know, very, or like two productive wide receivers in Mari Cooper and Elijah, Elijah Moore. Now that being said, is it any guarantee that at this point in his career that Amari Cooper is like, for sure going to be the number one over Elijah Moore? And I'm like, that's the high end range outcome. It's like Elijah Moore at this point is just straight up better than Amari Cooper. Now, again, there's

very little to suggest that, but you know know we've seen flashes of elijah moore and we've seen marie cooper basically injured his entire career at this point so like you know he goes down or gets you know hampered by an ankle injury elijah moore becomes the better prospect seeing seven eight targets a game i mean like that i certainly possible like um so yeah i think that the high end range outcomes there i'm probably gonna be betting his ladders like every week until it happens like uh 50 plus yards 60 plus yards because his lines are gonna be low they're gonna be in like i'd guess like the 30s maybe low 40s yeah for sure that's that's kind of where i'd pin him which in some matchups if they're gonna be throwing like maybe week one against the bangles they're gonna

be throwing a load because the bangles are gonna be you know tossing as well like i mean i think it could be a good look i mean we can get in the week one matchup i mean they like to use mike hilton to blitz a lot they have inexperienced safeties behind them that's going to be elijah moore field day so yeah could be a nice week one buying opportunity just just kind of push it a little bit uh just trying to be more forward thinking on where we think the player is going to go and you know i think stew make a good point like there's a reason to have some trepidation here because we it's been like prospect hype and it hasn't been anything that he's really delivered on. That's okay.

Sit on the sideline, and you probably aren't missing out by just kind of backing what he's done for the first couple years in the league. Again, just watch the tape, man. Just type in the search engine on Twitter, Elijah Moore, and then you'll feel pretty good about $5.50 and a half, I promise. Oh, man. the search engine on Twitter, Elijah Moore, and then you'll feel pretty good about 5.15 and a half, I promise. Also, before we hop off here, I want to bring up a question here from the listener who brought in a really good question. He said, hi guys, it's Don from Germany. One question, I was able to place 1,000 euros on

Chris Olave under 8.5 touchdowns at minus 115 odds. They took this obviously wrong bet down now, but I still have it in my account. And then he follows up and says, now I'm wondering how much I should play back. The current over under is five and a half touchdowns minus one Oh five on the over. What would you do? Um, I normally don't personally, I normally don't arb, but with a three touchdown gap, I, and a thousand Euro on it, I probably would. Uh, I don't know where you guys are at. Do you, do you arb at all? I don't too much,

you know, ever since I've kind of looked at it of making, you know, two negative EV bets and hope of kind of getting in the middle. I don't love that idea. Like, I think you already have a clearly positive EV bet. You have an amazing bet on the table right now. So at this point, you've got to think to yourself, how much do you value this five and a half number? And two, I think it's really specific to people's bankrolls.

I think a lot of the time we don't talk about it. If $1,000 is a lot of money to you, then I would consider buying back into the market. But if you're playing with $1,000, that's your unit size, you're comfortable getting that down, then I think you have a great plus EV bet right now. And I don't personally think there's any need to maybe in season if you want to. I know they start to do a little bit more of that, but I would be pretty fine with having your great number right now. That's a good point. I'm with you, Connor, because it's a three-touchdown gap, but it is still touchdowns,

and that makes it a little bit more leery for me too because he can still play really well. I'm very bullish on Chris Olave. I think it's real. I think it's sticky. Derek Carr was third and averaged up the target last year. I think that what we saw from olavi is in his rookie year isn't like isn't fleeting i think he deserves to be going where he's going in drafts and i understand why people are are

bullish on him but like i kind of agree like you got a good number i think you're okay hanging with it he can play really really good football and you know still fall a little short of this and you miss your arm opportunity like you can get five touchdowns and you're you know you just kind of ate into your profit off of the the bad number so maybe it's the touchdown piece of it that makes me a little bit more hesitant even though there's a pretty good window in terms of just what you would think about in terms of actual opportunity from an arm standpoint yeah i would say 99 of the time i'm going to say no to any art but like just general like in across the market people be like oh like this person's is 3 700 passing yards and like on

one book and it's 3 400 in the other should i middle it i'm like no like you know like the range of outcomes are massive but maybe for touchdowns i would consider in this instance because like eight and a half you know you win at six seven eight um on on those two so again yeah like like stew said, I think depends on risk management, depends on what's bankroll, you know, depends how good you feel about a lobby. I think we have projected like right at five, a little bit over five, 5.4. So yeah, right on the number at five and a half. So yeah, again, like eight and a half, you're probably feeling really good unless you get like an outlier crystal lobby season. And maybe, you

know, you're, if you want to get a little risky, you can play 10 plus touchdowns at another shop for plus money and then just pray that it doesn't hit nine. Exactly. But, you know, again, depends on how ballsy you are. Yeah. The thing is, like, he did not have like an elite end zone target rates, but he also was such a like high ADOT guy that kind of, you know, mitigates that a little bit. He's just a guy that could take the top off and that does actually work with what Derek Carr likes to do as well. So, yeah, it's an interesting play. My advice would be to hold your good number.

Congratulations. I think it's probably a nice little price for you there too. I got one more chat question here before we go. Jonathan Tegeler under 1150 and a half rushing yards. Thoughts on that? Obviously he's in the news in terms of holdout and trade demands. And I, you know,

I don't know what this number was pre trade demand. I imagine this has probably got hit a little bit on the under with speculation of him missing games here too. You know, any thoughts on that one, Connor? Yeah. I mean,

I would speculatively play it like just, you know, why not? But you have to check your book's rules because every book has different rules. Some of them you have to play start week one. Some of you don't. Some of you have like a game minimum, you know,

on like at least on Prize Mix Underdog, they have like five, you know, a couple of games you have to play. So it's like, it kind of mitigates some of the edge that you might have. I mean, that being said, like if he plays a full season, I definitely don't like the under, I mean,

I, I mean, I think that like he could have a great season. So, you know, I think speculatively it's fine, but it's not something I would like run to play. Also again,

depending on your bankroll, I wouldn't tie up like massive chunks, your bankroll on something speculative. Do you see typically running backs when paired with rushing quarterbacks that bodes well for their rushing outputs too. So there's a nice spot for Jonathan Taylor. Assuming we get, uh, 17 games out of in the season. What are your thoughts there, Stu? Yeah, I need to figure out a way to get some season long exposure to Jonathan Taylor. Cause I like Jonathan Taylor. I like the situation. I'm not an Anthony Richardson believer. I'm sorry. I

don't know. That's not a controversial thing to say anymore. We're past draft Twitter. So I can say that. I love him. It's okay, though. Well, yeah, but no matter whether he's successful, whether he's not successful, I do think there's a pretty clear path to Jonathan Taylor continuing to be the absolute awesome running back that he's been in years past. So I think for me, I'm probably going to target him in fantasy, though, a little bit more. I don't think I love the idea of betting 1,200 rushing yards for anybody because you're kind of betting against the clock more than you're betting against any factors, right? You're not

betting against an edge. You're just betting if he gets injured or not, which is something that a lot of us, obviously we can try to determine, but we really have no clue. So I would lean, you know, the under for betting purposes, but I like Jonathan Taylor this year. If he's out there, if he's healthy, if we don't see any trade drama, then I think he has a good year, but I like Jonathan Taylor this year. If he's out there, if he's healthy, if we don't see any trade drama, then I think he has a good year. But I think I'll probably get my exposure in fantasy instead. That's kind of the, at the top of the board

with a lot of these like studs, that's kind of like the, it's a yes, no injury bet almost. Like Cooper Cup last year was on pace to like 1,600 yards. Newton took over 1,300. It was like, oh, there's so much wiggle room. All he has to do is play like three quarters of the season. And, you know, he didn't, unfortunately. So like, I agree.'s so much wiggle room. All he has to do is play like three quarters of the season. And you know,

he didn't unfortunately. So like, I agree top of the board, especially like these guys are definitely underpriced to like what they should be. But a lot of it's just like, are they going to get injured or not? And those are not my favorite bets to make generally.

It's a great point. And I think maybe again, if you're in a lot of our listeners do both, you play in the fantasy game as well as betting. It's probably the best way to go about this and attack them there. So yeah, I think that's a good look and good advice and the best way to do it. So,

all right, good stuff. But as props in the books, and again, right now we're just doing one episode of move the line per week, but as we get closer to the season, we'll have sharp Clark in his place for our normal move, the line talking sides and totals and all that and we're excited to continue with prop drop for our third season

more information to come there as well probably looking at uh friday afternoons so once we get to in season you're going to be here twice a week uh covering anything that you want in the betting side for football so i want to thank monotone Football, our guest for this week. Tell folks where they can find you and all your stuff. Yep, I'm over at Monotone Football. Like you said earlier, just one L character limit held me back a little bit right there, but should be pretty easy to find.

I'll obviously have bets for the NFL season as we get closer and closer, more futures articles. I also am covering the Women's World Cup right now. We've had a lot of success so far. Pretty much any kind of weird niche market where i don't think people are taking it seriously enough i'll be there you can find me over there whether it's nba first quarter you know nfl live betting whatever i'll be there so appreciate you guys having me on i love talking football and yeah i'll do this you know anytime any day name the time and place i'll be here love it appreciate it uh again jump in the show notes.

Find ways to get access to the betting subscription for really cheap. Again, get into the Discord. I get, you know, those notifications when we push out any picks. There are cheaper ways to do it. Again, you can just head over to 444.com slash plans as well. Anything that you're going to want to do football-wise, we can have covered for you here at 444. Likes on the video subscribe

rate and review in the podcast all those things go a long way and we appreciate it very very very much so for monotone football and connor i'm ryan we'll see you all next time thanks everyone you