Move The Line - Prop Drop: Best Season-Long Props To Bet RIGHT NOW

Episode Date: September 4, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus introducing third co-host Alex Selesnick. Together, the trio will share their favorite player props in the NFL. Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET.  New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000).  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, a prop Drop Show presented by WinBets. I'm Ryan Noonan. Joining me as always, partner in crime here at 444.com. It's Connor Allen. What's going on, man? This is our debut episode of the Prop Drop Show. We're actually going to be typically in the season doing this with our buddy Prop Stars. But giving him the night off, we'll start with him in week one. We're going to kind of continue on our preseason stuff that we've been

discussing. And we're going to give out a couple of currently bettable props that are still in the marketplace. Yeah. I'm jacked for this show because we're really going to focus on giving out actionable bets and a couple of ones that we're not trying to ruin the market or anything, but you know,

two to three bets, you know, every, every week, our favorite prop bets that come out on Friday, Friday afternoon. And then we're there Friday night giving you our favorite prop bets that are of the early drop because a ton come out Saturday. And I think it's going to be awesome. I'm really excited to work with UDIs on this. And this has been like a dream come true. So I'm

jacked to see how this goes. Yeah, it's going to be a lot of fun. Like you said, we're just going to keep it real tight on Fridays when they come out because we know that there is a ton of actionable stuff. We talked about it a little bit on our Wednesday episode. If you have not checked that out, we just wrapped up our divisional preview series. So those are all out there for you to listen to. On Wednesday, Connor and I went back and kind of gave a refresh considering that now we've had OTAs and some stuff has been

bet down. We went back through and said, hey, what's still out there today that we can bet on, or that we can look into the future market, whether it's division winners, win totals, things of that nature. So we hit that up on Wednesday. And then in the prompt market, we want to be able to get down quick. That's why we're trying to really go this route. In addition to some of the written content that we're going, trying to really go this route. In addition to some of the written content that we're going to have coming out on the site, typically on Saturday mornings, more times than not. But again, a lot of instances, we got to get the number quick, man. These move so fast and there are subtle differences between, you know, say five to six

yards on a rushing prop, or all of a sudden the juice moves a ton, just long-term to be able to beat the book, we want to be able to get the best of the number that we can. We focus on that and look at headlines when we're trying to beat size and totals. That's really hard to do. I think we can beat the prop market, especially if we're quick.

And that's really what the intent of this show and this spot every Friday night moving forward all season long is going to be. So at this stage tonight, Connor and I are going to look at the season-long player props that we find valuable. We have an incredible tool that is part of our betting sub over at 444.com. Definitely want to check that out. There are a ton of ways to access that site. I'm sorry, our subscription there. Go on the site, 444.com slash plans and find out if you want to pony up for the entire thing, which isn't even

that much. It is a sprinkle of some of the other stuff that's out there in the marketplace. Go ahead and price out other sites, look at all that we offer, and then tell me that you're not getting the best bang for your buck at 444. I don't think you can, to be honest. There are some other great sites out there, but the value is not even close. And our betting subscription gives you everything on the site, TFS, season long. And we created some incredible tools. Our boy, Sam Hoppin, Sam will have some written content

this season on 444.com around player props, but his tool leverages John Paulson's rankings and projections, which have been played out for decade plus that are the best in the industry. And we're leveraging John's props, projections and Sam's tool. And we're going to be the books this year and crush it. We want you along for the ride. So don't forget to go and check that out.

I'm telling you, it is absolutely worth your time on the Wednesday shows this coming week for week one, we will have John Daigle of NBC Sports Edge joining us to break down game by game. That's where we're going to get into a little bit more of spreads and totals. Every Wednesday, we're going to be giving out an opportunity for you. If you go ahead and rate and review the show or comment on YouTube, it gives you the opportunity to enter a drawing, to enter in for a free betting subscription on 444.com. So we definitely want to check that out. So, all right, Connor, we've been waiting for this, man.

We've been talking about this for four years to do a prop show and to really have the opportunity to do it. And I think we're going to be able to do it as well as we possibly could have dreamed of this year. I'm excited to have Alex at PropStars on Twitter on board for this as well. But let's just jump into it. We're going to give you four each. Like I said, four for four.

That's all you get. You're going to get four from us. But kick us off. What is your favorite, I guess? We're going to kind of go in order of our favorites. We like all these. We like a million of them. There are a bunch that we've already bet.

I think these are ones, at least for me, these are ones that we haven't talked about anywhere else we haven't written about them i don't think i've shared any of these in discord um but i got out in on these this afternoon and i will share those as well but i want to save it for this show but kick us off yeah so i'm going to start it off start us off with cadarious tony under 524 and a half receiving yards uh at this point, Tony is pretty much the fifth or sixth in terms of pecking order in terms of targets behind Kenny Galladay, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Saquon Barkley, Evan Ingram. I mean, even this season, like you're looking at Tony at somewhere in that range in terms of where he's going to get targets.

And I mean, this doesn't project to be a great offense either. One of the league's worst offensive lines, according to our four-4-4 offensive line guy, Justin Edwards, is actually going to be the worst offensive line in the NFL. And by all accounts, Tony just having a horrible training camp, missed all of preseason, has yet to participate in a live practice, and is still reportedly dealing with COVID side effects and has struggled to get his stamina up. Literally, all the reports are that he can't even, doesn't even, isn't even close to being in shape, like game shape.

And then if you look at the type of player that Tony is, like they were trying to get him the ball, like, you know, at the line of scrimmage and, you know, kind of close to kind of be like a little bit more of a gadgety player. Our projections have him closer to like 350 yards. I think that this is playable, you know, down to like 450 even. And it wouldn't even surprise me if Tony, when he does play, which is going to be the first few snaps, first few weeks of the season is going to be like, you know, 15 snaps, 20 snaps where he'll see like maybe one to two targets. So that's going to be something in season two that I'm going to be looking at. Like we, if those under over-unders come out and it's even like 35, 40 yards, like I'm going to be hitting those unders like crazy as well.

So yeah, I like the season long under, and that's going to be something I'm going to be paying attention to in season as well. Yeah. It looked like muddy waters there with the, they actually coming in seemed like they were going to be something I'm going to be paying attention to in season as well. Yeah, it looked like Muddy Waters there with – they actually coming in seemed like they were going to have some depth of the position. But then they even – like Colin Johnson got released from Jacksonville. They scooped him up.

That was surprising anyway. But I feel like with all that's going on, he seems like more of a plug-and-play option in that offense for the Guderian's Tony's right now. So they were previewed by me on our wednesday show i like the under on that team for all the reasons connor laid out like that offensive line is is terrible i couldn't go first without the most on-brand pick for me um it's michael pittman over 750 and a half receiving yards um early when this, when our prop tool first dropped and our early projections came out,

I had some beef with Paulson. We were way under on Michael Pittman. Actually, Michael Pittman's receiving yards under was popping as a buy. And, you know, I will give it to the man. He came around over time and realized that this is a true alpha who is going to really ascend this year we know we see these jumps from you know year one into year two there is really no competition on that team that should worry us and now we have this T.Y Hilton who's just dusty as can be anyway T.Y

Hilton's dealing with some like degenerate neck injury stuff. He's probably, I mean, if there was anything left in the tank, it's probably long gone here. Pittman led the league in football outsiders, a yak plus metric. It's basically yards after completion above average. In his rookie year, he wasn't even healthy really at the start of the year. He dominated that target share in the playoff game

against Buffalo. No one else had over four targets. Pittman had 10 targets. So Frank Reich really understands, all right, this is the dude we need to get the ball to. Carson Wentz is a guy that his entire time in Philadelphia showed that he wasn't afraid to force the ball into coverage with bigger receivers, with like Alshon Jeffrey and stuff like that. Because Pittman's a bigger body guy.

He's like a more athletic Alshon or similar to like a Mike Williams, but I think he has that yak ability that we love that we've already seen in his rookie year. In home, in that fast track, I think that he is going to be a massive, massive piece of that offense and absolutely love Pittman. Way overexposed in best ball and i'll continue to double down here and uh and target him he's a nice little matchup in dfs in week one

uh give me pitman over 750 and a half yards yeah that's number two for you he can he can take a big leap for sure i like that so i've warmed you up i've warmed you up we got him in our ffpc draft it's part of why i like that draft now even though things have gone wonkyky, I look at the draft board and I'm like, we got Pittman. We got Pittman. We're all right. I feel good about it. I'm pretty concerned that a fight might break out on our Wednesday show with Dagle, with me, you, and Dagle just based on how that draft went.

It's been kind of a disaster. All right. Second bet of the day. I like Jalen Hurts over 3,700 and a half passing yards. Now that they're basically out of the Deshaun like jalen hertz over 3700 and a half passing yards now that deshaun what they are basically out of the deshaun watson sweepstakes um we're looking at a guy who i think is a little bit underrated at this point in the pastor as a pastor um in his final season oklahoma averaged 11.3 yards per attempt 69.7 percent completion rate as a rookie hertz only started to complete

three games but in those games he passed for over 300 yards in two of them. And then the other one had 167. But this was all with a non-existent wide receiver in core. I mean, you're throwing to Travis Fulgham as his number one target, an offensive line that saw four or five starters missing significant time. So then the Eagles went on to draft Devonta Smith. They get Jalen Rager back, kind of, who's maybe ascending, I would say, maybe not back.

Drafted Landon Dickerson in the second round. So then all of their offensive line know, maybe ascending, I would say, maybe not back. Drafted Landon Dickerson in the second round. Then all of their offensive line returning. A group of, I would say, slightly above average pass catchers at this point with the addition of Devonta Smith. And then now retaining Zach Ertz, retaining Dallas Goddard. And then not to mention, they have a win total of just six and a half. Their defense does not project to be more than above average. So I think they're going to be in a point where they're going to be in plenty of games with negative game script. And Hurts is going to be throwing the ball routinely.

So his prop is 3,700 yards for the total season. In a 17-game season, that equates to 217 passing yards per game. I mean, I think that's pretty shy of what he should actually be putting up here. Like our projections have him closer to nearly 50 more yards per game, and we project him at over 4,500. So we're looking at an average of 265 per game in this empty game season. So, yeah, I like the over there, especially now that we're kind of guaranteed that he's going to be starting there

and it's not going to be Watson. I'm a little nervous about the Gardner-Minshew stuff. Does that make you nervous at all? Because I don't feel like Flacco was a real threat to coming in to take any of the other Hurts role, but I feel like maybe Minshew could. I don't know. I liked it earlier, but I've backed off of my love for Hurts here.

Yeah, I don't know. I'm still kind of into it. I think that it's still a good play. I Yeah, I don't know. I'm still kind of into it. I think that it's still a good play. I mean, I don't know. I just don't really see it, barring him being catastrophic. Which is in the range of outcomes. It is. It is. But I don't know. I think our projections, he's way under. I think he's popping

in our model for sure. And I liked it when you bet it. I didn't tail it, but I liked it. Yeah, the Minshew thing makes me a little – it's just, like I said, I didn't think Flacco was coming in, even if Hertz was horrendous. But now, like, Minshew's – like, if Hertz is done or is awful, then they have so much draft capital that we know that they're going to address the position in the draft that maybe they just go ahead and move on

and give themselves a better shot to win with Minshew. Yeah, who knows? I hope Hurts, he's better for fantasy, so I hope he's in there. For me, I'll go with Damian Harris here. Damian Harris, over 845.5 rushing yards. I was bullish on Harris pre-Cam, Mac Jones stuff. And obviously, I think that this is a massive move for Harris with Cam out. Not only, again, and obviously in fantasy, he's not going to be cucked at the goal line, but just in general, Cam is still a massive part of the

offense as a running quarterback. And they love him. Moving on from Sonny Michel, I think helps support and insulate his role there too. I know Romandre Stevenson has been terrific so far in the preseason, but again, that's been really against secondary guys. They've been protecting Harris. They even protected Harris down the stretch last year. They love him and you don't really hear Belichick talk about running backs in particular, like they've talked about Harris in the last year plus. And it's one of the best offensive lines in the league. It should be a top five offensive line.

A lot of returners, they went out and added some guys in free agency too. It's going to be a really good offense. And I know that they want to continue to run the ball a lot. And I think that that kind of alleviates some of the stuff with Matt Jones. I think they want to continue to lean on him. So give me Harris. 845 and a half seems really light. Yeah, I can get behind that for sure too.

Especially at this point. I think that's really light. Like it should probably be closer to like, you know, like a thousand, I would say. Yeah. So yeah, high nines for sure. What do you got next, buddy? All right.

Moving on to my actual second prop here. I like Kyle Pitts over 800 and a half receiving yards. I mean, I've talked about this, I don't know, probably on half of our move the line pods or anytime the Falcons are mentioned, but I don't think the Kyle Pitts should be underestimated. I know that in the betting market, I think that people are properly valuing him, but in the fantasy market, you know, I hear a lot of, you know, oh, rookie tight ends, average X, or, you know,

rookie tight ends don't perform well enough. But I mean, if you kind of focus on what this current situation is, I think that most of that is just like lacks context and is mostly garbage in my opinion. I mean, Kyle Pitts, highest drafted tight end in NFL history, was the first non QB off the board in the draft, ran a 449 at 6'6", 245 pounds. Now comes into the situation with the Falcons. He's the clear number two target by competing with guys like Russell Gage

and Olamide Zaccheaus. I mean, the more that I go over the Falcons from a team level too, their defense, PFFs were secondary. ETR's 31st ranked pass rush, which is going to put them in a lot of situations to pass the ball a ton. So if you're looking at them throwing the ball

40 plus times a game, like routinely, if pitch is the clear number two target, how is he not seeing like six to eight targets in those games? And like you're putting him in that range with a guy with this kind of talent and the coach of Arthur Smith, the former tight end coach, we saw in the preseason, they already did like a little role, like play action bootleg where Kyle Pitts is just running out there and had a lot of open space and showed why he was a top three pick.

I mean, literally a guy just like bursted past linebackers like they were nothing. And so I don't know. I'm a big fan. I think that over 800 and a half receiving yards is very viable. I also bet him to break the tight end rookie receiving record, which you can find over at DraftKings, of 1,076 receiving yards. You can get this at plus 300. I think he finishes with 1,100 or 1,200 yards in this season and has just like massive, massive potential going forward.

Yeah, love it too. I mean, I think the call out too is Arthur Smith. Like coaching matters in this league in a big, big way. And Arthur Smith, I think, is a difference maker. Schematically, we've seen guys like Anthony Ferkser emerge when Jonah Smith is out because he just knows how to utilize play action and motion and set their team up for uh for things and like you said he's kind of a unicorn talent wise and without julio with a bad defense um yeah i mean i think pitts is is absolutely set to to smash there's

there really hasn't been anything like it so i feel like you did a good job calling that out like we try to pull all these caps and ceilings and grade him against what's happened historically when we're like we really haven't seen anything like this historically he he's just kind of kind of a freak athlete and should dominate so like that one quite a bit uh for me i'm gonna go under on rashad bateman at 600 and a half receiving yards i was surprised this is still out there when i saw it in our tool and then i went over uh to the book to ensure that it was before putting it out here for you guys. This is out there today. And Bateman is on the short-term IR. He will miss minimally the first three weeks of the season. He has been basically in and out of training camp the entire time.

We'll be stepping in as a rookie in a pass first offense and we'll have missed a ton of time. And I mean, that's really it. Like I can give you a bunch of more analysis. That's, that's it. Like he's going to miss time to start the year with a leg injury that could reoccur. That's it, man. Like, I don't know why it's still on the board, but it is, and you should hammer it. I would say the only distinction would be that you need to and dan rivera brought up a good point in the chat here is that some books so like fan duel says that they just have to play one snap the entire season for this account bad mgm said that must start week one potentially so that's what he's saying so that would make sense because i know it's void it would just void but i'm not

sure you know we got to confirm that but i know the fan duel, like I bet some Carson Wentz unders, and that was like, oh, he just has to play a snap the entire season. So that's something similar there where I think that's also viable. But I do like the call out there. If that is the rules, then that's – I mean, Bateman's not going to touch 600 yards or anywhere close. Yeah, which is interesting. And that's an interesting call out too.

Thanks, Dan, because we don't know. There are so many different books out there, and they all have their own different close. Yeah. Yeah. Which is interesting. And that's, that's an interesting call out too. Thanks Dan, because we don't know, like there are so many different books out there and they all have their own different rules. We experienced that. If you bet golf at all, there's a lot of different rules for like dead heat rules and things like that.

And matchups and they're all very, there's no universal anything. So yeah, I mean, if, if it's, if he's out for week one and it's dead at week one, then it's dead.

But if not, you're, you're cashing some uh pretty you get your money back you might as well just hammer it and then if it holds your money yeah you're kicking yeah uh all right what is your uh your fourth bet all right last bet here um so we took this actually at 600 receiving yards but emmanuel sanders over 625 and a half receiving yards it was one of our top plays in our player prop tool for a while we haven't projected for 775 receiving yards his prop is lined 150 yards lower so the Bills lost John Brown they added Sanders offseason and I don't

think it's like necessarily a one-to-one swap but I mean we saw Smokey just end up you know fizzling out of Las Vegas already so I think that actually speaks you know highly to maybe Emmanuel Sanders potentially playing a bigger role right away. And so we're looking at a team there that has Stephon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, but you know, the Bills were one of the highest teams in terms of playing four wide receiver sets. And then last year in the seven games that Brown played more than 50% of snaps, he recorded 386 receiving yards, which is 55 yards per game. In 17 game season,

Sanders just needs to average 35 yards per game in order to accrue more than this 600 and a half receiving yards. So even if there's a Gabe Davis breakout, like, you know, there's plenty of cushion here for Emmanuel Sanders to get, you know, 650, 700 yards. And if there's not a Gabe Davis breakout, you're looking at Sanders probably closer to like the 800, 900 mark.

So especially on this offense that just continues to ascend, Josh Allen continues to own the haters, myself included, and just keep getting better. So at this point, and even last year, it was time to stop hating Josh Allen and to kind of start, get on the train and make some money off of him. So thankfully, I think both of us have made as much money on him as we lost fading him in any aspect. So I think we're just fine in that department. Yeah.

I, I wrote up the AFC East in our betting preview over on the sites yesterday. And the more I dug into it, I'm like, I need to search for some alt overs. And I think I texted our group that I'm like, I want bills alt overs.

Cause I think they're going to be really good. And yeah, we just pick Sanders on our high stakes team. I told you, I want access to bills. We picked him. I want access to bills receivers. And like you said,

I mean, it can happen even if Gabe Davis ends up emerging, but all reports are saying Sanders is in those two receiver sets. But you also said like Arizona was the only team that ran four receivers more than buffalo did last year like they it's just part of their offense so if they're even running three receiver sets it feels like right now that's going to be sanders with cole beasley in the slot as long as he's out there so yeah i love this one even though it's been creeping up um last for me another guy on our high stakes fantasy team ron's out more over 550 and a half receiving yards this one pops is really one of our best values in the prop tool and bullish on his talent

i mean um he is a just firecracker with the ball you know it seemed early in the preseason that it seems like they're going to be smart in utilizing him, mixing him in. It could be even some nice low ADOT stuff, which is basically all they do in Arizona anyway. But just getting the ball in his hands and letting him create. I'm not super worried about a dusty A.J. Green. They tend to use, anytime they take shots down the field, that tends to be more of what they're doing with Christian Kirk. And even by drafting more early, adding AJ Green, I think that kind of tells us a little bit about what they think of Christian Kirk anyway. So it makes me feel really solidified on Rondell Moore's role here. I think this should be closer to maybe the high sixes or even 700 yards,

just because his after the catch ability is ginormous. So even though he could have, say, four to five low ADOT targets a week, he can easily accumulate some nice yardage after the catch. So bullish on Rondell Moore in a big, big way. You muted, buddy. We've talked about Rondell Moore before on some of our other pods. Like he was a great, like an outstanding prospect after his freshman season at Purdue. Like, you know, potentially like a first round great like an outstanding prospect uh after his freshman season at purdue um like you know potentially like a first round like top 10 pick um just because of his yard after

catchability and then obviously he was stuck in just a bum offense a little bit of injuries a covid year kind of like dragged his draft stock down now i think that like this is just like a perfect perfect fit you know with him in uh the horizontal raid here and like even like we saw in the preseason a little bit just the way that they were feeding him targets you know like kind of those those screens like bubble screens and just like shorter passes and then you know if he gets going a little bit in the intermediate game like i think that it's just uh it is wheels up for a guy like rondo more who's legit talented um and so yeah i i'm a big fan of that as well i think that you know you and i know daigle is a big fan of it as well so i think that it's it's good hop on over here. And we'll probably be betting some of those props as well in season.

Yeah. To your point, I think you were highlighting that early with the Caderius Tony on the other side of it. When you kind of have the market set out a big picture number to work off of, we'll start to see incremental numbers broken down off of that from a game-by-game standpoint. And that, at least early, should give us some betting opportunities on Rondell Moore where they'll, they'll probably set a fairly low week to week number until he starts to just blow through it a little bit.

So that, that should create some in-season buying opportunities as well. So, all right, we want to give you a little taste of the prop tool again, behind the paywall under our tools over at four for four.com. But just want to give you some of what's out there. I want to show you what our best in the market is right now that we didn't

highlight today and give you an understanding of kind of how you can leverage that out there. If you were to get a sub and play around with it. So we have a, we're popping again. I'm going to be honest, like Paulson, he's a packers homer but he's he's i don't think it creeps into his process but we have a really nice number on aj

dylan here i could see uh what the sports book is it tells you it's really easy down at the bottom yards over gives you the line so out there in the books around a little over 700 yards gives you the odds which are pretty standard the books around a little over 700 yards gives you the odds which are pretty standard there and our projections are about 200 yards clear of that number presenting a massive massive value on the over there almost 30 value on an aj dylan uh prop so again as you can see as this lays out this is very very easy for you to do. You can pick your state. You can select the books if you have a specific book. All the stats that you want to display, you can filter by team.

You can filter by name. You can see here easily. And then you can even adjust your own too, depending on if it's an offshore. You can go ahead and get an understanding of what the actual true value is in it. It is an incredible resource and highly, highly recommend taking advantage of this this again over as a part of our betting package at four for four what are your thoughts on dylan i mean we've talked about dylan a little bit um we talked about his receiving usage and questioning that but are you in on dylan do you think that there's something to be said there yeah i think that he showed enough like upside uh in that game against tennessee last year where

um in games where maybe they're salting the game away or you know uh aaron jones comes up a little bit like shaked up or maybe he starts to use more in the passing game i think my thing that i think it's most likely is that uh aaron jones soaks up more of the passing work of jamal williams uh left over and uh jamal or aj dylan um kind of like takes on more of the early down work that Jamal Williams left so you know like it's that kind of give and take here so where AJ Dillon winds up with as you saw you know we're projecting for 906 rushing yards I think that'll probably be in like the 800 to 900 range just because he is getting you know 10 plus carries a game and maybe even more and if and if Aaron Jones misses time,

I mean, he is going to absolutely explode. The biggest issue for his, his fancy usage is receiving. But again, for this prop, that doesn't matter. So,

you know, I'm in on the over here. I think that the floor is fairly high and that the ceiling is like sky high for his rushing. If anything were to happen to Aaron Jones, or even if he's to be banged up, I mean like, what if they go to optimal usage here where AJ Dillon is the,

between the tackles grinder and that Aaron Jones is the, getting the space guy, you know, they're like a Alvin Kamara type, you know, like duo in terms of just like grinding and with, you know, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara back in the day. So I think that like this, there's a lot of different outcomes here. And I really like AJ's for AJ Dillon's floor and ceiling here for this one. Love it. Yeah, I like it too. I think there's enough there. I think, like you said, I think it works that way. I think Jones is terrific, but there's enough, I think, meat on the bone for both guys to have a nice, nice year.

So anytime he's that bullish on someone like that, I feel like it should get our attention. And yeah, we definitely think that tool is going to pay for your betting sub really quickly. And it is absolutely worth it. And we have some more tools that are coming out in the next couple of days as the season gets going. And I think that they are just easy plug and plays and justify you having to talk to the wife and explain why you spent a little bit of money and that

you're going to buy her a nice purse, take her out to a nice meal when the season's over because we're going to take care of it. And if you're a female and you're playing, I'll explain that you can do the same for your husband. You can buy him a round of golf or a nice steak or whatever it is.

It's equal opportunity. We know that you're out there and grinding props to ladies um all right before we let everyone go connor how about some just futures we talked futures as far on the team level yesterday but just give us like one or two you know player level futures that are out there that have struck your eye that i think are worth it yeah so i like uh two right now one a draft Kings Mahomes to break the regular season passing record at plus 450. So there's 17 games, and we have projected for 5,546 passing yards. They spent the offseason bolstering the offensive line. So, like, based on our projections, this is closer to, like, 50-50 odds.

The passing record is 5,477, and we haven't projected for 5,546. So based on our projections, we're looking at that over, and it's plus 450. So if you would put that into our tool, and you can actually do that in our tool, you can manually enter in all that information, put in the odds, put in the line, and then talk about the player,

and it'll tell you that that would actually be the best value on the board significantly based on the odds. So I like that one a lot, and I also like Ryan Fitzpatrick over 3,900 passing yards and Washington football team to make the playoffs at plus 285. So that combination right there, we have Fitzmagic projected for 4,450 passing yards. And I mean, I think Washington football team wins the division here and potentially makes the case to make the playoffs as well. So at plus 285, I thought that it was a good kind of like prop parlay combo like it yeah uh win bet here has some really fun and interesting like combination bets that i think are worth your time if you scroll down um to their futures app that i think are pretty interesting they also have

some i think division finishes like first and second and picking the exact order those are really cool i think there's some value out there. And the futures market, it's been juiced up a little bit. We talked about Damian Harris earlier. I think you can still get a 30 to one for him to lead the league in rushing touchdowns, which seems really high. And we don't like really talking. I don't think you're going to hear many touchdown props on this show. So it's really hard for me to give you a season-long rushing prop number

or touchdown number. But Damian Harris, if he is going to have that role, again, his concern, if you're worried about him in fantasy, is that they have a really clear third down running back with a receiving role in James White. That's really not him. We already talked about him here. He's going to be a first and second down grinder. And that's a great offensive line. I think they want to run

the ball and control things. Third and one is too high. I think that's worth it. And then there's a couple defensive player of the year, guys that I think are worth it. I think at the top, if you're looking at chalk, I think Miles Garrett makes a ton of sense at six and a half to one. At Caesars, I'm progressively more bullish on Cleveland. I think just more as I think about some of the concerns I have with Baltimore, I think that Cleveland's going to be really, really good. Garrett was playing awesome last year before he had some of his COVID stuff that knocked him out. I think that he kind of is the center piece and face of that defense.

If they really do ascend, and that is a team that maybe gets into a buy or they threaten that number one seed in the AFC, I think Myles Garrett is very interesting there. A long shot at the defensive player of the year position. You can get Jair Alexander at 80-1 at Caesars, which is insane. I think he's worthwhile like 50 or 55-1. But Jair Alexander is arguably a top three cornerback. I think that I really like some of the improvements that I think

the Packers are going to have on the defensive side. And it's the same case where he is the best defender on that team. And we do see it. We saw it a couple of years ago with Stevan Gilmore. Like it does, it's either sacks or high interception year. And Jair Alexander is a, just a ball hawk and a baller. And at 81, I think that is a really nice number on Caesars. And again, he's still out there at 50 or higher everywhere else.

So I think he is worth a little sprinkle. Yeah, I like that for sure. That's a good one. You got any more? I got one more if you don't have anything. Yeah, go for it. All right, so there's like, yeah, these are kind of correlated here. So I put a half unit on Cowboys' highest scoring team in the NFL

at 16-1 on DraftKings. So last year, I mean, their offensive line is now fully healthy, projects to be like a top 3-5 unit. Their defense is still more than suspect at this point. The five games with Dak last year, they scored 17, 40, 31, 38, and 37 points. So, you know, I'm fully in on them to potentially lead the league in scoring at 16-1. My only concern would be

dac and that he's not going to be 100 percent uh for the entire season but that seemed kind of like you know bad reporting i don't know i didn't really like the way that that was reported it's like okay well you know he's going to be playing i'm sure he's going to be fine you know but like yeah he's not like doesn't feel 100 the entire time but who knows how much that really impacts him when he has all these weapons and uh you know such a good offensive line so that's good the only other one that i really like that i wish the number was a little bit better but it's still pretty high tyree kill 12 to 1 to lead the league in receiving yards um we talked about it last year and it was a slow progression where it was like this gadget receiver that would just have these not gadget

receiver but like they weren't giving him elite receiver targets he was getting really efficient with like five to six every week and last year all of a sudden they like just turned the heat up and decided we're gonna pepper this guy with nine ten eleven targets every week and he just went off there's really no outside of kelsey no secondary receiver that we feel really good about there um i have concerns i don't know that the defense is going to be better um they've they have some reclamation projects at the cornerback position that they really need to take steps forward otherwise i think it's probably a worse defense and if we have an extra game and we have Mahomes having to play all those

games because you have the bills and the, the Browns really pushing them for that first seed in the AFC, I think Tyreek should be shorter than 10 to one. So give him, give me 12 to one basically across the board, no matter what book. Yeah. I like that.

There was some, if you like shop around the books, there's some value I think on those like top ones. Cause there somewhere like davante adams was like 15 to 1 or 13 to 1 to legally receiving which is silly he was like 7 to 1 and most other spots so yeah i like that call out for sure yeah all right my man well that does it we will uh again we'll be back next friday to do the prop show don't forget to if you keep subscribing on wednesday we will have our game by game breakdown with john daigle and then friday every friday will be connor myself and alex at prop stars on twitter and we'll be doing this uh every week just giving you um the prop show will

be us giving our our favorite three um in addition like connor, we'll be firing off ones into the Discord, our subscriber premium Discord, along with write-ups by Connor, myself, and Sam Hoppin on 444.com every Saturday morning, Saturday afternoon, depending on when they come out. So that wraps us up. So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We will see you on Wednesday. Yeah! We will see you on Wednesday.