Move The Line - Prop Drop: Conference Championship Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: January 28, 2022

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, Connor, Ryan and Alex discuss their top Conference Championship NFL player prop bets. Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Use Promo Code 4FOR4 on Prop Swap for a first-time deposit match up to $500 + a FREE Move the Line shirt (Minimum $5 deposit) 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3r2JF04  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our  👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Conference Championship Prop Drop Intro 4:37 Connor Prop No. 1 6:17 Ryan Prop No. 1 8:22 Alex Prop No. 1 17:50 Connor Prop No. 2 22:47 Ryan Prop No. 2 24:27 Alex Prop No. 2 27:48 Props Betting Cards Recap 28:38 Prophet Exchange Ad 31:09 Viewer Props Q + A 58:40 Conference Championship Prop Drop Outro 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop show. Prop Drop presented by Prop Swap. Head over to propswap.com or download the app today. Enter our promo code 444. And when you deposit up to $500, the fine folks over at PropSwap will match that. I am Ryan Noonan, joined as always by my two favorite fellow PropDGens. First, Connor Allen. Connor, what's going on, my friend? Not much. I'm just happy that you nailed the intro this time after yesterday's show. Such an ass.

So yesterday on our Move the Line Wednesday show, you know, PropSwap, fine folks. We appreciate them. Great sponsor. It sounds very much like PropDrop. So, and the cadence of that open is very normal for me to say prop drop.

And I said that instead of prop swap. So yes, thank you, Connor, for, for shaming me again. If you listen just to the audio version, as I mentioned,

that is not even, doesn't even exist. It's only in the YouTube annals. And, uh, Hey, here's what it is. Also joining us prop stars, Alex, what's going on, my friend?

What's up, Ryan, Connor? Great to see you guys both. I am excited. It's a little bittersweet for me, though, as well. I can't believe this is our second-to-last episode that we'll be doing together this season. It just feels like yesterday we started this journey together, and here we are almost at the conclusion of it. I know. What is this, week 20 or so? We've joked about how, you know, the first episode, there was so much going on.

It was the first episode literally doing it because you don't necessarily do this in the preseason. Connor and I were traveling, so we were kind of outside of the, you know, normal flow of a week. It was Alex's first time, first time doing shows together. So we definitely didn't have the flow. We didn't really have the listener engagement that we have currently with all the folks that flood us with questions, which we absolutely love. It became obviously the best part of the show and our favorite part for sure. The first one was we had a hard time stretching out to 15 minutes and now we

have a hard time even with two games, keeping it, keeping it under an hour. So that's a evolution that I'm proud of and I'm glad that we are where we're at. But yes, unfortunately we are winding down because football is winding down. We have three games left.

We will be back next week in this same or similar spot. We'll probably do the Friday spot where we typically do for the Super Bowl. But again, I'm sure we'll find a way to make that bad boy an hour or two between all the questions that we have from listeners and things of that nature. So as always, fire off in the chat. If you're hanging out with us on YouTube, let us know of any questions that you have. I know we have a bunch on Twitter today to get to, which is great. Again,

we love that part of the show. And again, we need to fill the backend because we only have a couple of games. So I want to remind you that we now flip the switch. If you want to get our sub over at four for four, our betting subscription is going to take you through all the next year. It's going to take you through today through next football season. So it's going to get you all the sports that we have.

They actually get you everything on the site too. Even if you're a non-better, you're playing DFS, season long, best ball, all that stuff. And then all the sports. We have Alex writing NBA for us. We have an NBA article up on the site every day. The subscriber only discord itself is 100% worth the value of our subscription.

So definitely want to check that out in the show notes, 444.com slash plans. You can also find out more about PropSwap there as well. Hit us up if you have any questions. Again, we'll be doing this show next week and then no typical move the line, but Connor and I will be back with Evan Silva, John Daigle, and Joey Knish for our Super Bowl extravaganza the Wednesday before the Super Bowl.

So we're on a bye week next year for the Standard Move the Line show. And then we will be back for the madness that is sure to ensue on the hour slash two hours that comes of that show every year. So definitely a fun one for us. But for now, let's get to the props uh we each have two we have some other stuff we'll talk about and then obviously we'll get to your questions here uh but connor you can kick us off my friend what is the first prop for you uh for the uh championship week it's a one that i've been waiting on actually for a little bit now uh elijah mitchell over over 69.5 rushing yards I took.

This actually opened above 75. It opened at 77 in a lot of spots. It's been bet down throughout the week. Now I think it's actually at a pretty good spot to bet the over. Mitchell's received 10 or more carries in 11 games this season. In those 11 games, he has more than 69.5 rushing yards in eight of them, a solid 72% hit rate. He now draws the Rams, who he has 85 and 91 rushing yards in two games against them this season. I understand that their run defense is fairly strong, but at the same time,

he's consistently played well. He's consistently gotten work. He was limited in practice today, which is an improvement over not practicing yesterday. So it looks like he's going to be good to go. And people have already talked about, or people we've seen throughout the year that, you know, when Mitchell is healthy, basically gets the lion's share of the workload.

It doesn't really matter if he's battling him. He came back at one point in the season from a broken finger, you know, and like people weren't even sure if he was going to play. And then he wound up with like 20 carries that same week. So I think that if he plays, he's going to see, you know,

17 plus carries pretty easily. And yeah, I think that if he plays, he's going to see, you know, 17-plus carries pretty easily. And, yeah, I think that in this spot we have him projected for, like, nearly 90 yards. So at 69 rushing yards, I think that it's a little bit too low. I think that the right line was probably closer to in the high 70s. Yeah, it's hard to argue with the volume. I mean, even last week with the limited workload, like you said, he has just been the guy that they seem to trust there.

Debo's eating into that a little bit but uh you know doesn't mean that he still can't get there in a nice nice matchup so no problem with uh no problem with that one and that is actually my first one here this week is a combined number on uh debo samuel combines uh 95 and a half rushing excuse me 95 and a half rushing and receiving yards. This guy just continues to ball out. And similar to what my motto was last week, where it was like play the best plays and just kind of lean on the guys that continue to eat.

I think we're going to kind of stay with that tune here this week. A couple of things that jump out. So I don't think Elijah Mitchell is in trouble of missing the game at all or whatsoever, but obviously there's something there with the knee. He was limited today, didn't practice yesterday, and I think he can still comfortably cover the over that Connor gave out. But Debo continues to kind of eat into that workload,

double-digit carries the last two weeks, and I don't think he's going to fall below eight carries in this game. I think his floor continues to stay really high, but more so on the passing game here, 95 and 97 yards in the two regular season matchups against the Rams. And the thing that here is the splits against zone. So the Rams ran more zone snaps on defense than anyone in the league this season. In those scenarios, actually against man coverage, Brandon Ayuk is the team leader in target share against man.

Debo is second there at 19%. But his target share jumps up to 25% when they are against zone coverage. And his yards per route run jumps from 1.87 to 3.45, which is massive, massive. Which makes sense when you think about how Debo plays and his ability to create after the catch and stuff. So, again, I think the floor is high for him from a rushing standpoint to get 35 to 40, minimal. I just think it opened up around 40 this week. And, again, I think that he's got there almost both times in just receiving alone in the two matchups.

So I love the Debo combined rushing and receiving this week. I think it's 97 at some spots uh 95 and a half at points bet i would take it comfortably anywhere under 100 i think he's a massive factor this week i'm not super concerned about his injury status here and i think he is a if they have any chance they need to get the ball to debo at least 15 times and i think they do so uh love love love debo in this spot uh Alex, what's your first one? Yeah, you can always sell me on a Debo prop. If you've been following me, I've been riding this guy as well, especially of late. I want to give a shout out to my guy Debo.

The past two weeks, he's cashed two tickets for me. Opening week was on a receiving prop that he hit on the very last drive. And then last week's rushing prop, he also hit on the very last drive and then last week's rushing prop he also hit on the very last drive so this guy is rushing tickets yep we got his rushing lineup 33 and a half last week uh cash that with i believe it was a 12 yard rush on his final play of the game in the final two minutes of the game love that love debo play, Ryan. My first play sticking in this game is OBJ over 50 and a half receiving yards. Saw this on FanDuel at this number. I definitely look around because he is 51 and a half on some other sites. Yeah, Beckham has firmly established himself as the number two option in the Rams passing game. He's also looked very good in the playoffs, in my opinion,

10 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown also gone over in both playoff games as well. Van Jefferson, as most of you probably know, is banged up. He's been practicing this week on a limited basis while he hasn't actually practiced. I believe he logged a limited practice this week. Didn't look fairly fully healthy to me last week at all either. I actually think that Odell offers some nice points bet opportunity, which I will talk about a little bit later this week. He's yet to have a ceiling game or a spike game as a member of the Rams.

And the average depth of target is there. The target share is there. So he's just kind of been playing a lot closer to his floor than his ceiling. I think this matchup is super juicy. Could be one where he finally gets into the triple digits as a Ram. We know San Francisco, they're second in rushing DVOA compared to 16th in passing DVOA. So the path of least resistance, as we like to say, as far as exploiting this matchup from Los Angeles' standpoint, offensively is going to be through the air.

I mean, that's how they've been winning football games all year and especially in the playoffs. So, yeah, I just anticipate Beckham being a large part of that. Just all these reports about Odell as well have been glowing. He continues to make his presence felt. I just think he's going to have another big impact game as well. Just the reports about him have been absolutely glowing since he's joined the Rams. McVay is gushing about him. All of his teammates are gushing.

I just like the way they're using him. I think he's firmly established himself as the second option in the passing game as well. I think he's going to cruise over this 50 and a half receiving yards. Wouldn't surprise me to see him have a big game as well. If he can hook up on a couple of deep passes with Stafford. So I do think if you have points bet, he offers some nice value there. If you can,

you know, potentially get like a crazy number as an alt line or something like him over 70 or 80 yards as well. Interesting. Interesting. I like it. I like uh like where your head's at i wanted to ask you a question because um it's a little concerning to me the other day i was wondering if you noticed any trespassers in the garden um because the other day connor went on a 15 minute rant on decibel levels at stadiums. So he was breaking down basically Joe Burrow's junior high, game by game, game by game, all the way to the pros,

what's the loudest stadium he's ever played in. And I was just curious if he seemed like at some point that maybe there was some gardening that had happened. It's funny you ask me that. I haven't noticed any trespassers per se. But I do go out there on a daily basis and have a long meditation session. And what I did notice is that I thought it was actually an animal potentially. My crops had been broken into.

Okay. My crops had been broken into and a reduction in my crop, which I just chalked up to maybe a deer or a coyote or something like that getting into the garden. But now that you do bring this up, I do think that there is a definite chance that Connor could have been responsible for these missing crops. So I do think it is something we need to explore further. I'm going to check the tapes after we go off air and see if I can spot a wild conner in the garden. Yeah. And if I do, I'm definitely going to post that online and that'll be tweeted out this

evening. Oh man. Check for droppings too. You never know. You know? Yeah. I just got, you know,

I went to the garden and like did some decibel research, you know, it was like not quite Aaron Rogers ask, but you know, I did my own research, you know, I went to the garden and like did some decibel research. You know, it was like not quite Aaron Rodgers-esque, but, you know, I did my own research, you know, did some critical thinking and thought about, you know, decibels and how they could impact the game. So, I mean, I feel like I got to give the quick stats here now. Let's hear them. All right. All right. So, okay. Loudest stadium in the nfl arrowhead stadium um at 142 decibels was the highest reported ever joe burrow was talking a little bit of shit about how you know oh the sec is louder so i was like you know what

i don't know maybe it is because they fit more like more people in a lot of these kids are generally rowdier too yeah exactly you think like oh man these kids are probably wild so the loudest stadium in the college in college football you know according to most websites and decibel you know ratings i don't i don't really know i couldn't find anything like very you know math sounds like a niche content niche for next year yeah i mean yeah like decibel readings at stadiums peak decibel readings i think are big but But anyways, the highest was LSU. The highest recorded was 120. But my thing was like, okay, well, Joe Burrow was probably on offense

when that happened. So, like, it wasn't – or, like, not when that happened, but, like, they probably weren't as loud when he was on offense, is my point. So, I think that, you know, at 120 and now in 140, you know, like that's a pretty big leap here. And the only other team that he could have played on the road was Alabama at Alabama in that crazy. It was like 46, 43 game. But they do not even have a top 10 loudest stadium in college football.

So there you have it, folks. I think that it could be a little bit noisier um in this game than joe burrow has ever experienced can i just say that the garden and rabbit holes the figurative type go hand in hand like a hell of a point i'm in the garden you just end up in a rabbit hole it really seems like that is the case with our guy connor here though i do think that points to the evidence checking out. And, yeah, I really enjoyed that take on decibel levels. I would be curious to get your take on Seattle's crowd because they've always been talking about like a little tinfoil theory is that they pump extra noise into the crowd. Like the Colts.

Yeah, to, you know, disrupt the opposing offenses. And apparently that's not organic noise, Connor. Yeah, I don't really understand what the – Sadie was like play loud music anyways, right? So, like, I mean, I don't know. You can't artificially pump in crowd noise when the opposition has the ball. Like, that's – Yeah, but, like, I mean, you kind of can, though.

I mean, just like – I mean, the Colts did, and they got fined for it. They've been doing it for years. No one wants to talk about it, though. We could talk about deflated footballs forever. And even talk about, like, interfering with, you know, like visiting teams' headsets and stuff. Like, not being able to have the line of communication between coach and

player and guys in the booth and stuff like that being in i know it's slimy but like i'm just a big fan of you know doing what it takes to win so you know i think you get the job done right like that's that famous quote like that might be the least surprising thing i've ever said to noon in here uh because he knows that i like to you know play things a little close to the chest and I like to get things done. Connor lives life in the gray. The margins. The margins. There's always another side for it

and he can do a good job of explaining why he's in the margin. I think he was in the garden thinking about am I being quiet enough? And then he's like, am I actually being too loud wait a second football stadiums are loud that's what happens

how loud is that football stadium am I louder than a football stadium which football stadium am I louder than is it making any sound this is a great question so next thing you know we have this diatribe on decibel levels and it'll be a piece of content on the site next year, every week. And, you know, he got his weather article revoked a couple of years ago from Roto World and he needs something, you know, in niche space.

So it was a fucking awful article. It was so bad. I mean, I just like I mean, I was hung over. I mean, it was due at like 7am on Saturday mornings and I was like, what else do they expect? I was just hung over as piss just grinding out like, oh, it's going to be 70 and sunny here.

What the fuck? I mean, what are you going to say? I miss reading it, I'll be honest. Go ahead. I got nothing else to say. say well hit us with your problem hit us with problem number two my friend all right so um despite you know that long uh thoughts on decibels uh i don't really think that it matters too much for joe burrow and i like a lot of his

overs uh you know for a lot of the reasons that I'm about to dig into here. Like with this game, I think that the Bengals are going to have to go pass heavy. They're seven point underdogs. And I think they have some success here against the Chiefs team. Seventh worst in adjusted sack rate, 30th in overall sack rate. Tyron Matthews still in concussion protocol. There were some pictures that came out saying he was back at practice.

He still has not cleared the NFL's protocol. So, you know, I think that he's still probably about a 50-50 bet to play. I mean, that still has to get done here in the next couple of days. So, I mean, that would obviously be a big loss, but even with him, I think that they're in a good spot here. Burrow threw for 446 passing yards last time against them. And then Burrow has 300 or more passing yards in five of his last seven games. Kind of like as soon as the Bengals weren't like dominating wins and they weren't doing that run heavy crap with Joe Mixon, like they kind of got away from that.

So I like, I don't think the burrow here is in a great spot for them to throw, throw the ball a lot. And looking at how he's performed in games where he's thrown the ball a lot, like with games with 41 plus attempts, he's gone way over 300 yards in the only game. 37 plus attempts, he's gone over 300 yards in five of seven games. And 32 or more attempts, he's gone over in 711 games.

So I think that here you not only have a good play on the over at like 285 passing yards, which is available in a lot of spots. I think he does also play like a plus 115 for over 300 yards of points bet. I also think that another way to angle to look at this is Burrow and Mahomes combined for 600 plus passing yards, which is available at plus 150 on FanDuel and drafting. So if you're limited one or the other, which, you know, I am on draftings right now pretty heavily. I was not able to get down a full unit there. Go over to FanDuel and you're able to get down a decent amount as well. So you're kind of able to get down a full unit.

That's why I don't mind kind of touting it here. I think that kind of we talked about this on the Wednesday show, high tide raises the ship here for both sides. If either team falls behind at all, I think that Patrick Mahomes falls behind. We've seen what happens like they have catch-up ability they have explosive ability both sides are able to really just throw their way back into games and so at this point i think that if either team is down at like you know any point by seven to ten points like it's basically just going to be like we're not running the ball we're

just going to throw the ball every single play until they catch up and then from there it's going to be like the reverse so i think that at at this point, like, I think that there's, if there's an all line for like 700 combined yards, I would consider taking that as well. Yeah. I like it. I took the burrow over 24 and a half completions. And I would take it at 25 and a half, to be honest, we can get like, you know, plus odds or something even close to that too. And shout out to our guy, Travis in Discord, who did some good research here.

And his thought was basically that either the completion number or the attempt number on Burrow was off based off of what his typical standard completion percentage is. And, you know, he's typically one of the most accurate in the league. Basically, it was an implied completion percentage of like 64%, which he has topped in eight of nine games. So really, when we've seen this pass rate over expectation spike for them, which is up like 13% flat over the last five weeks, like they were just throwing the ball a lot more.

And it's obviously not something that you start to back off of when you've had this success that's going to get you to the afc championship game you don't all of a sudden go oh let's bury the ball in you know joe mixon's stomach all over you know over and over again so yeah i like the over on the yards i like the alt combination that connor's talking about and i think the burrow number 24 and a half 25 and a half on the completion side i think is a is a really nice look too. So. Yeah. I mean, even if you look at two, like the, with the chiefs, like,

I mean, some, some people have theorized over the past, like two few years, like, Oh, like the way to beat the chiefs or like really good offenses in general is like, Oh, keep the ball out of the opposing team's hands. Right. But like the chief score so quick and so like fast and like, this is such a good matchup for them that, and they've been rolling as of late like you can't really do that like you can't because they're just gonna score so quick that you're just like wasting time and you're running inefficiently and like it's just not it's not the way to beat them i mean you just gotta you gotta

like out you know outpace them to the end like basically like you know it's gonna be a boat race but you're gonna you basically gotta just like outrun them even doing that though your best way to do it efficiently is through completions right versus inefficient first and second down runs so like even if they are theoretically attempting to maintain pace control the ball they still need to do it on the joe burrows arm versus you know handing the ball to joe mix it over and over again so uh that brings me to my second prop, actually, because we're going to lean heavy on the pass game here, and that is Joe Mixon over 27 and a half receiving yard.

I saw this in the chat. Someone had a question about it. So perfect. We are answering one of your questions here. This is out there, I believe, minus 111 at MGM. I think it's 115 in some other places. But even though he's giving up third down, long down and distance stuff to Samadji Pirine, that pass rate expectation spike on early downs is kind of floating mix in here.

Regardless, he can still lose those snaps and get there. He has topped this number in four straight games, 23 receptions, averaging basically 47 and a half receiving yards per game over the last four, which is really nice. He saw eight targets the last time they met back in Week 17, caught seven of them for 40 yards. And I think, again, they're going to continue to give attention and probably even more so based off of how last game went back in Week 17, where Jamar Chase absolutely torched them um where they're going to be able to get a little bit more mixing in the flat on early downs and that's just going to create more opportunity for him to run after the catch and get some yards here so also nice spot chiefs

26th in past ddva against the running back position this season so just on paper a naturally good matchup here so uh mixing over 27 and a half receiving is my second play i'll love it quite a bit correlates nicely with the uh the borough stuff uh alex take us home man what is your uh your number two yeah i like that mixing prop quite a bit as well uh yeah it's hard to ignore his involvement in the uh receiving game especially recently like you mentioned over the past four to five game very high target floor floor. So yeah, very encouraging stuff. So I'm with you on that. I like that quite a bit. And my final prop is Travis Kelsey over 75 and a half receiving yards caught

this on fan duel as well. I would check their first 76 and a half on other books. I don't know about you guys, but Kelsey has dispelled any notions that he has lost a step over the last two playoff games. In my opinion, having gone over this in both playoff games is averaging over a hundred receiving yards per game in the playoffs dating back to last year. He's also gone over this in five straight playoff games.

This guy is a big game player. Certainly appears to have Mahomes' trust as well. There was a pivotal play last week that I'm sure you guys saw where he called an audible – Kelsey called an audible at the line of scrimmage, decided to run a go-route where Mahomes downed him for a huge gain. You don't see that often, that kind of trust between receiver, tight end, and the quarterback finding a mismatch like that. And coverage is clearly Mahomes' security blanket.

I don't think there's any argument about that. Cincinnati has also been very vulnerable through the air all year. They ranked 24th in passing TVA. Also, they ranked 24th in DVOA to the tight end position. Furthermore, the Bengals have given up the fifth most yards to opposing tight ends this season, fourth most receptions. Great matchup on paper um i also love the fact that this game just has a high total pretty much checks every single

box that you're looking for in what projects to be a high scoring shootout between two elite offenses give me a piece of the best pass catching tight end of all time love it three prop donkeys giving you six overs championship weekend absolutely i feel good about all of them though i'll be honest so it's all right over set too baby it's okay you know we got some built-in outs on under we've been so balanced all season we're just doing you know like what feels right i think they we've earned the trust of the viewers uh to you know be fair be diplomatic be reasonable if we felt like there was you know overwhelming value on the unders that's where we would be we're just going with what makes sense and thus far you know like uh the overs appear to have some value so we're kind of just going with what the market dictates.

Agreed. Yeah. We were talking pre-show that some of the good unders that maybe caught our eye got steamed so fast. There's a little less margin in them at this point if you didn't get on them right away. Yeah. I mean, as our good friend, you know, Evan Walter Silva says, you know, we don't just play overs. We hit overs. I also want to point out that these lines are very efficient as well.

I believe they're quite a bit more efficient comparatively to the regular season. So, yeah, I just think kind of by nature, too, we're dealing with just kind of more fragile numbers. And yeah, I just think that one thing you can sort of bank on in the playoffs is the targets are condensed amongst the best players. And that is kind of one of the things that you can count on. So I do find that there is a lot of value on overs this week, just looking at the landscape. Yeah, there's just not a lot of value to be had in general i agree buddy i'm with you yeah let's uh recap what we had i'll remind you if

you're hanging out with us i'll continue to hit us up in the chat let us know what questions you have we'll get to those after we have a fair amount from twitter we'll get to first and then we will tackle anything here in the chat as well in reca recapping, Connor on Joe Burrow over 285 and a half passing yards. Elijah Mitchell over 69 and a half rushing yards. I'm on Debo over 95 and a half combined rushing and receiving. Joe Mixon over 27 and a half receiving. Alex on Odell over 50 and a half receiving yards. Talking about big big big games

looking at alt lines there too maybe some points bet sprinkles and then travis kelsey over 75 and a half receiving yards uh love it nice little card also we talked about this on uh wednesday show but i also want to tell you i know this is props but if you are out there in betting and you are in the sides and total markets and you dabble there a little bit or even money lines, I want to tell you a little bit about our friends over at Prop Exchange. Prop Exchange is a brand new sports betting exchange where you're the bookmaker. Users set prices. You can bet on things out there that other people have set, things that are already out there in the marketplace. And for even odds, you're basically not paying the juice that you're

going to have to pay at a sports book. You're giving up a very small commission, significantly less than the 10%, which we both know, we all know, which is like 15%, 20% basically in most spots now with the way we're trending to 115s, 120s out there in the marketplace. And Profit Exchange eliminates that. It is a two-way market, peer-to-peer betting where the juice is gone. You cannot get limited because they're not a sports book. It's an exchange. You're betting against someone else. So you will never get limited at Profit Exchange. It is going live soon in New Jersey. It is coming shortly thereafter to Indiana. It is legal.

It is tied to the license with Caesars in those states. So any states that currently have Caesars should be looking for Profit Exchange to come to them very shortly. So join the waiting list today at ProfitExchange.com. That is P-R-O-P-H-E-T Exchange.com. Check it out. Some information here in the show notes as well. This is really the future. We talked about it again on the Wednesday show that exchanges, peer-to-peer betting is just the way to go. You can dictate the market. Currently not doing props over there, but like Alex said, if there was interest on Odell over 80 and a half receiving yards, he could put whatever price on

that he wants. And then if someone wants to short it and take the under on it, someone could take the other side of the market. They're not doing props currently, but from a size and total standpoint, that's still very interesting. You can dictate. You don't have to go off of what the books are. You are the bookmaker there. So, again, it's not an actual bet that's placed until someone takes the other side of the bet. But, again, I think it's really exciting.

I can't wait for it to come to Illinois and we can mess around with it. But New Jersey folks, be on the lookout. Indiana, shortly thereafter. So, Profitxchange.com all right uh let's get to the listener questions you guys have been fantastic we got a lot of them here and we'll fire off uh alfred longfellow wants to know how concerned are you with the lingering injuries for kiddo debo trent williams um and then more importantly how much sleep will you get once football ends uh the sleep thing man

i cannot wait for the sleep thing um a nap during the day because i have a eight month old who is amazing and just absolutely sucks at sleeping still. So nights are still absolutely brutal. That's supposed to get better by like five or six months and we're not there yet. So I am definitely looking forward to sleep. I don't know about you guys and O'Connor has been burning it on both ends for quite a while here. And I know Propy is up in the lab late at nights too. So yeah, football ending is good for the sleep game. I'll kick it to you, Alex, first.

Any thoughts on the Niners injuries and then your sleep schedule for the offseason? Yeah, minimal level of concern regarding the Niners injuries. I do expect these guys to be out there. I mean, I think everybody's dinged up at this point in the season, you know, like week 20. These guys haven't had a bye week for a long time. I don't think it's overly concerning if these guys are, you know, still practicing on a limited basis, still fully expected to suit up. I think once the adrenaline gets pumping, you know, they're going to play,

you know, I don't expect them to be limited, I guess, is what I'm trying to trying to say. And regarding, yeah, the sleeping schedule is a concern. I sleep very little, so I am looking forward to having somewhat of a lighter schedule. But I've actually never really been good at sleeping, and I love being in the lab late at night. I love burning the midnight oil. I like feeling like I'm the only person awake, especially on Twitter. So I enjoy that sort of thing. So I don't know how much more I'm going to be sleeping, but I am.

Yeah, it's bittersweet. I'm going to be missing the NFL. How about you, Connor? Your thoughts on the injuries? I know you won't be sleeping. You're up early. Yeah, I don't sleep anymore. So it's okay.

I just think about donuts all night. And decibel levels. Yeah, decibel levels. I mean, it's the whole works. Garden crops equal decibel levels plus donuts. I'm working on getting my citizenship in Indiana since it's essentially like its own country, you know, and a different place. I'd like you to get an ownership stake in the hotel you're at. I'd like that to become like your official like an embassy or something, like Conor's Embassy Suite.

Yeah, no, that's a good idea. I'm a couple episodes in This isn't spoiling anything Ruth buys the Lazy O It's not a spoil She buys a motel So I think Connor should follow in Ruth's footsteps This hotel is a little bit more expensive

Than that one But I would love to I actually asked them about it I got bored and so I asked the front people Who owned it and everything How like how they how that works. And like I didn't know that hotel companies contract out people like different companies, like hospitality companies to work in the hotel. So like I'm at a Hyatt place and they hire some other company to like hire people to work in the hotel. Like it's like front office,

like it's like the receptionist and like everything. So they don't even like do anything. They just own it. Interesting. Yeah. That's cushy. Yeah. So they're basically just like a real estate company that hires out like

property management people. All right. Yeah. Look at you, you know, new stuff this week, all this free time in your hands in Indiana. You got a little sun kissed as well, Connor. You notice that, Ryan?

It's probably a reflection of the snow. There's no sun in Indiana right now. It's true. You're working the drive-thru window, getting that reflection up. Maybe one of those solo hikes. The solo hikes the solo hikes yeah yeah i've done a lot of hiking a lot of hiking yeah indiana known for its hiking for sure as

well like beautiful uh beautiful trail very scenic yeah really good vistas when you look at you know it's like places people move to every year it's always top of the list and they mostly cite hiking as the reason why so uh all right uh main focus has a question for us he's hanging out in the chat as well uh hit us up on twitter as well uh doesn't pringle look kind of uh kind of low at 37 and a half yards he's gotten seven plus targets in four of his last five averaging 13 and a half per catch during the season. Obviously on an uptick here, Alex, what are your thoughts? Yeah, so I've been, you know,

obviously we've been studying these games very closely. One thing I did want to point out that with the Chiefs, it's interesting, like outside of Kelsey and Tyreek Hill, the target distribution has just kind of been all over the place. We're seeing Demarcus Robinson. We're seeing McColl Hardman. We're seeing Byron Pringle. He has a higher floor, a slightly higher floor than those guys.

We're even seeing like Blake Bell. McKinnon now is in the mix. Wouldn't surprise me, you know, like Clyde Edward Hilaire gets X amount of targets. So we're kind of seeing Mahomes, know outside of Kelsey and Hill who probably combined for roughly 20 targets the other targets are sort of just being spread out so it's hard for me personally to trust one of those ancillary receivers or pass catchers on the Chiefs outside of those two main guys. So I do feel that Pringle's line at 37.5 is very efficient. I do too. He is definitely the next guy when you just look at the trends

of the last couple of months of routes run, targets per route run. He's definitely ahead of McCole Hardman in that standpoint. Though it does feel like when they bring Hardman in, it does feel like he's almost schemed a target here and there occasionally. Like last week he only ran a route on 34% of the snaps, but he got a big play out of it. So it seems like he is someone that they try to get the ball to occasionally. So it is hard to take non-Kelsey, non-Hill guys.

So I looked at it. I looked at his longest catch. I looked at his yards too, and I kind of landed what you did, and I just said, don't feel like there's an edge there. It would have to be strictly a hunch play, and I'd probably rather have him in a hunch spot where I thought they were going to be maybe trailing or something like that. Little known fact, fellas.

McCole Hardman was ninth in the NFL in yards after the catch this season. Wow. That's pretty wild. Can't think of McCole Hardman without thinking of certain gentlemen in the industry who can't not comment every time you use McCole Hardman's name. I mean, we, okay. So last, I feel like though in the playoffs, so with the chiefs, like we always try and like guess who the next guy is in the Super Bowl or bigger games.

And last time we certainly got it wrong. It was like – I think everyone mushed McCole Hardman. He was like – his routes run were rising and all that stuff. And then now I think Brian Pringle has a pretty firm hold on that spot. But watch – I mean, they win here, and Nicole Hardman's going to be, like, the Super Bowl MVP. After Marcus Robinson. Yeah, after Marcus Robinson.

After both of them running, like, ten routes this game. You know what I mean? And then they'll have, like, six for 150 next week. So just wait on it. I feel it's very hard to project outside of Kelsey and Hill where those targets are going. Yeah. I mean,

focus says to hear in chat that McCall Harmon looks incredible last week. He caught one ball. He looked good doing it. It was like a huge play, but like, that's, that's it. So it's,

that's, it's just hard to, it's hard to do anything. I guess you could take him on a longest reception, but I don't even know that that's out there currently. Maybe it is pre-kick on Sunday, but yeah, I'm with Alex here. It's kind of a tough market. All right.

AP picks. Any thoughts on Jamar Chase over 82 and a half receiving yards? And then also talked about Odell, which is something that Alex already gained. But obviously, you know, the Chase thing is we went for 266 against them last time i mean again it's a pretty efficient number i would lean over because how could you not but it's not a bettable number for me currently uh either of you have a thought on jamar chase at 82 and a half? I actually think it's even up further North than that. If I'm not,

I think it's like 88. Yeah. So yeah, I've just to kind of piggyback on what he said, Ryan, I think these numbers are efficient. I think they're efficient across the board, frankly,

not a lot of value to be had, especially at this stage, you know, having 48 hours of these lines being released. I think this stage, you know, having 48 hours of these lines being released. I think things have, you know, the slight inefficiencies have sort of, you know, kind of naturally corrected since these props came out. So, yeah, I would lean over on it. To me, it's an over or nothing.

I would, you know, wish you the best of luck taking this guy's under after seeing this guy just go thermonuclear you know over the course of the playoffs and obviously against the chiefs in that uh he single-handedly won the offensive rookie of the year award in that game against kansas city so yeah i do anticipate the chiefs though not wanting that to happen at times too so i do anticipate you know, a kind of a more spirited effort from Kansas City and certainly going to face some bracket coverage. And he will command quite a bit of attention. I would be shocked if Jamar Chase pops off for over 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns in this game if i'm kansas city i'm gonna make t higgins tyler boyd cj uzama beat me before i let this guy just you know go crazy for 266 and three touchdowns again

yeah i agree uh jason brown wants to know what are our thoughts on cam acres rushing yards at 61 and a half um sites obviously san francisco being very stingy rush defense second in success rate second in ep EPA in the season. They are a terrific rush defense. Held both guys last week on Green Bay comfortably under their number, which I wish I would have had the stones to take. They just came out a little too low. Alex, any thoughts here?

I do lean under on this as well. I'm just wondering how Sonny Mischel has just been completely put out the pasture. He was so effective. Not the flashiest guy, not the most explosive. But as far as production is concerned, he was running the ball very well. I anticipated at least having somewhat of a 50-50 split. I do recognize that Akers is a more explosive option. But yeah, looking at those two very significant fumbles last week as well to close the half and then at the end of the game, those could have been absolutely crucial.

I mean, they let Tampa Bay back in the game, almost cost them a game that they were up 21 points and going into the fourth quarter. So, yeah, I would imagine, I mean, conventional wisdom would tell me that Michelle should be involved. But yeah, McVay seems to be fully comfortable with Cam Akers. So if he's going to be getting 20 to 25 carries, then I don't like this. If, you know, Michelle's going to mix in for five to seven carries and Akers somehow stays within that like 12 to 14 range, I do think the under provides some nice value, but it is a little speculative not knowing if, you know, Akers is just going to have a stranglehold on the backfield touches once again. But I do agree it is a very difficult matchup. And those were very costly fumbles last

week as well. Yeah, that hurts too. Sports savant, two questions that are kind of similar. Connor, what are your thoughts here around how do the books adjust prop numbers in the playoffs? Are the elite star players all higher due to possible increased usage? And is the prop market more or less volatile due to a higher concentration of bets and money? We've kind of talked a little bit about the efficiency of the market here, obviously, with just two games. But what are your thoughts on these questions here? There's a lot in those questions. I would start by saying the prop markets, you know, they always, the star players always get steamed up pretty much,

like almost guaranteed. Like, you know, Burrow opened at like 782, Chase opened like in the high seventies, you know, like all these guys, Mahomes, you know, opening at a certain point, like they're all getting, they you know, like all these guys, Mahomes, you know, opened at a certain point. Like they're all getting, they all get steamed up because, I mean, they just, a lot of their markets and a lot of their stuff moves with action in props versus like in sides and totals. It's only moves with like respected money.

So, you know, like to some extent that's true in props, obviously, like, you know, a max bet from someone respected can move a line as well. But most of it has to do with just like action and kind of like, you know, moving the line accordingly. So I would say that because of that lines do get sharper, and that like, smart people and money are generally sharpening sharpening lines to sell. But on the other hand, I think there are some points where like, you know, I don't want to be betting like a closing line on a quarterback over like a big star over like at the end like that's probably not where i want to be um but at the same time for like unders as long as you mentioned like there's not really much value in unders because most of those have

already been kind of like picked apart by the pros and you know kind of handpicked so yeah like again like it's kind of like you got to get in early or don't get in at all uh if you're really going to be like trying to find something super beatable, but you know, our margins are going to be a little bit thinner probably for this week and next week and trying to pick out our favorite bets. And I'm, I think you should be okay with that.

I still believe that, you know, over the course of the sample of whatever the entire game, especially next week, we're probably gonna have a couple of bets each on one game, which is, you know, aggressive,

but you know, like it's a Superbowl one, two, you know aggressive but sure you know like it's the super bowl one two you know there's enough props out there that i think we can find edges on at least a couple of things that we think are worth it yep it's part of why we're doing the show early in the week versus uh you know closer to the actual kickoff because we're assuming that the lines are going to come out fairly early and if we can get to them and get them to you um early in the week too you know more than a week out from kickoff i think it is get to them and get them to you early in the week to, you know, more than a week out from kickoff, I think it is going to be the best way to get it. And we'll

hopefully have some nice closing line value come kickoff on, on Superbowl Sunday. So yeah. The important question though, from Cody, if you were a rapper, what would your rapper name be? Alex, give me some thoughts. I did have a brief tenure as a rapper okay did you i can verify this you got the sound so you sound clouded this was back in the days of my space boys okay it was on my face as a rapper uh i did have a rap name it was lil geppetto i was little geppetto for those of you unfamiliar with pinocchio geppetto i believe created pinocchio yeah childhood classic favorite of mine so yeah i was none other than lil geppetto i had a brief rap career uh it's a little NSFW, though, what ended up happening as a rapper. Long story short, I made a diss track about someone,

and that someone took it very personally and, I'm not joking, filed a police report against, like, literally cited my song as like being threatening when it was like completely made in jest. And you know, totally. Did you grow up in Portland? I did not. I grew up outside of Philadelphia. Oh man. You were in the streets, huh? I was mixing it up in the streets. I was rapping little Geppetto.

I was like a mean rapper before meme rappers were a thing. If you want to hear one of these tracks, just DM me. I will play you some Lil Geppetto tracks. Lil Geppetto. We need that next week.

We need to switch our intro music to Lil Geppetto. We can do it. It goes hard. Just forewarning. That's okay. That's okay. It's the last one of the season. If YouTube wants to take it down after a little bit, we'll mix it in. Maybe we don't go intro. Maybe we just throw it in the middle here.

Yeah. You've got to wait and see the unveiling of Little Geppetto. That is truly incredible. I can't lie. That's amazing. And I expected Dunant actually to be kind of like one of those like low key, you know, rappers, like, you know, yeah, definitely. Like you were for sure hitting the garden and just be like, yo,

let's like freestyle and like, you know, playing some, some beats in the back, like sitting there freestyling. Dunant looked like a low key freestyler for sure. He's like, for sure we did. Right. Yeah. You, you know, playing some beats in the back, like sitting there freestyling. You didn't look like a low-key freestyler, for sure. He's like, for sure we did, right? Yeah, you and your boys, 100%. You know, from a different generation, fellas, you know? We're talking like Cool Mo D. Like, you know, like some of that rap that wasn't even rap.

That was like the pioneer. Were you just like talking over beats? Or is that like you're just speaking words? Like there's no. So no one really knows, you know, that Southern New Hampshire is a hotbed for, you know, an underground rap scene and freestyling and obviously yeah i mean i grew up in you know a tough a tough neighborhood obviously um which again is southern new hampshire is littered with and uh you know it's hardened me but i think it's made me who i am today and i'm proud of it connor and i don't really appreciate you you know um yeah actually my

first concert ever. This doesn't really count. I went to go see the Fugees. Fugees were hot back in, you know, 94. Oh, man. It was, you know, it was like. Were you rapping there, Ryan? Oh, for sure.

You like mouthing the lyrics. I still do. Okay. Yeah. You know, my Spotify liked song list is a very eclectic mix, which will, you know, you catch a little,

you know, little day Matthews. The next thing you know, red man's hitting you upside the head, you know, who knows what happens. You don't know. You need a little Nas,

a little, you know, no, no, Nas, actual. So, you know, it's an eclectic eclectic mix yeah it happened in my first concert ever was the fujis love the fujis they were opening for culio um for culio for culio it was a gangster's paradise it was hot at the time so like this is fuji's coolio 1997 oh yeah this is 94 95 maybe yeah damn i was in the fucking

womb yeah the university of new hampshire yeah um you know really excited to uh you have frosted tips i never frosted my tips it's a fair question totally fair question i did have a month stint stint with a puka shell necklace that is the secondary step to the to the frosted tips less permanent um yeah that did happen so um hey what you do but uh tupac biggie still you know my third my son's 13 i'm trying to get him a little bit exposed to it without getting too deep into it because then you listen back and you're like damn i should not have been listening to this at his age like do i really want to share do i really want to open pandora's box on you know tupac with him um but you know i do but you know an appropriate time

but yeah um i think connor would be dj donut dj dj donut dj donut would be appropriate that's a good one you know i i was just thinking about this? I love Lil Dicky. He's like an awesome rapper. That's what I was trying to do as Lil Geppetto. I was like trying to like... I'm too old. I don't know who Lil Dicky is. He's like a white dude that like... You gotta watch that show called Dave. Dave.

Awesome show. I love it. It's on like I think HBO. It's like awesome. I mean it's just like a very well done show. It's really stupid but it's good. You guys remember like lonely island those guys like yeah i was trying to do something like that before it was like i mean little geppetto probably spits i feel like you could probably he held it down i can't wait for this i'm not waiting for this yeah we need the links uh neuro guy wants to know do you think my Niners win on Sunday? I do think your Niners win on Sunday. Connor does not, I believe.

I'm kind of like in between. No, I don't really know. You didn't have a strong – yeah, you weren't strong on the Rams per se. Alex, any thoughts? My Venmo was cleaned out. I've been like betting Connor multiple times. Yeah, you didn't even send me my Hundo from last week. I sent you tonight.

I forgot about that. I've been just – the guys at Sportsline have taken off like an obscene amount of money off me. So I'm done messing with spreads and totals. My days in the spread streets are over. Oh, my God. A bunch of people are tweeting at us about Lil' Geppetto right now. There's a lot of Lil' Geppetto stuff coming in. Look at this. Oh my god. A bunch of people are tweeting at us about Lil Geppetto right now. There's a lot of Lil Geppetto stuff coming in.

Look at this. This is amazing. This is from Chill. That's hilarious. That's great. Absolutely love it. All right. Some questions in the chats.

Some of the ones that we've already tackled. Kenny wants to know. Burrow, we kind of touched on these. I like the completions more than the attempts, but I also think the attempts number is low. We kind of talked about that one. Let's see. I had started these earlier.

Mixon, I gave you that play. Terrific. Agreed. Mixon over 27 and a half receiving yards. Bazooka Shark, enjoyed riding with you guys for my first year of gambling. We enjoyed your company. Thanks for hanging out with us. We will be back next week and we'll be back next year.

So continue to ride with us. Meg been riding with us all year burrow over eight and a half rushing yards burrow, a little tougher to swallow on the rushing you know play that we've talked about a lot with the quarterbacks to the spot anyone have a thought on burrow eight and a half rushing yards not really his his game per se i mean it could be and it was before he's like whatever like injuries for sure like i mean he's very capable of rushing but he's only rushing in like you know two times. Last time against Kansas City, ran the ball five times for 10 yards.

I mean, I don't know. I mean, I think that the over is definitely the lean, but I'm not sure. Yeah, it's tough. I would kind of agree the over is the lean. Did you draw me a picture on this Venmo that you sent me? I did. What is this? I had to see you in the garden.

Oh, my God. Stealing the crops. People cannot believe that Alex was a rapper. We're going to get to it, Kevin. We're going to bring it out. I promise next week we will have some samples of it. We'll get it on here. And that's FW.

Just remember. Internet sleuthing. Yep. Beautiful girls. You don't want to have them far away from the computer. we'll get it on here um i'm do some internet just remember internet sleuthing yep uh beautiful girls you want to have them far away from the computer when we when we tackle this so definitely make sure that they they stay away here uh some other ones uh let's see chill who just made that amazing little geppetto says that probably looks like Caveman from the Geico ads. You know, hey, 20 weeks in, you know, life is hard, comes at you fast. This is true.

We'll shave and shower in the offseason. In the meantime, we've got to dig on the props. Maiden talking about Mahomes rushing yards, probably a good play. Probably, yeah. You know, Connor and I touched base on this a little bit on the wednesday show this was something we were on big the last couple of weeks again like last week we got it at 19 and a half he obviously has like a 30 yard scramble in the first quarter and we cash but then it opens up at like 29 and a half this week so yeah i would probably still lean over and you could sell me on it but it's definitely there there's no real value to Alex's point.

Like it's a very efficient number, basically like the rest of the market is. So anyone have a thought currently on the Mahomes rushing play? I agree, I'd lean over. I like it to go over as well. But yeah, I do think a lot of the value has been siphoned out of the play at this stage.

Like you kind of mentioned, having a strong hunch or inclination, I think the number is efficient where it's at. I'm hoping that he runs two times for 10 yards this week and then we catch a 20 next week or a 22 next week in the Super Bowl and just bang the over

early in the week. Edward, really good question. Alex, have you ever visited the Garden and then come in to wrestle the bear? I've wrestled the bear in the garden before. Oh, my God. You know, you got to protect your cross. You do not disappoint.

Every week there's something that's a true story that we couldn't, you know, manufacture or make up that is, uh, never, never failed to deliver. You guys watch that movie, uh, semi-pro with Will Ferrell. Yeah. Yes. Yeah. That's like what I imagine you wrestling Dewey the bear, you know, and just having like having some, somebody else, Spumoni, you know, the safe word. Uh, chill. Another great question. Uh, once you you pop you can't stop where the pringle props at um again we kind of touched on this here 37 and a half receiving yards y'all like i mean we lean

that way but again it's it's an efficient number and um not for me but again i would probably if i was going to take pringle hope that maybe you get a little bit of yards after the catch juice and maybe you get a longest yard, you know, longest reception number versus the, you know, 37 and a half that's out there currently. So, yeah, a lot of people want to know about Lil Geppetto. He's going to lock up the IG, Twitter handles, make sure it's out there. Do some digging. There's some stuff out there already., make sure it's out there. Do some digging. There's some stuff out there already.

So there are some competition out there. There are some imposter little Geppettos. I mean, I think we need a wrap-off between all the Geppettos. I was the first Geppetto, I can tell you that much. There were no little Geppettos when I was Geppettoing. Oh, man. Well, because the market's so efficient and we have kind of touched base on some of the stuff that producer sal was looking to touch base on from a prop tool play of the week um

instead of anything that he has this week we're just going to celebrate how awesome his gabe davis play was last week you know gave gabe davis out and he goes out and has uh you know two bills in change breaks ankles uh on his way to attempting to, to take the bills to the next day. I mean, that was an incredible two minutes of football, which I've watched multiple times because I can't believe how awesome it was. So hopefully we get anything that even somewhat resembles that this

weekend. I'm excited for it. You guys have anything else for the people before we wrap it up? Yeah. I just hope we have a great championship week. I think these are at least four of the five or six best teams left. Maybe the four best teams left should be a great weekend of football. Very much looking forward to it.

And, yeah, I hope we smash all these overs. Yeah, smash it. Don't forget, find a little Geppetto on SoundCloud. Hit up those links and uh maybe let's make some money yep also reminding the show notes uh prop swap being you know get out there and buy and trade some tickets prop exchange is coming shortly as well which is exciting and again our betting subscription is open for next season. Basically starting now until the end of next football season and beyond. It gets you everything at the site, which we're really excited about,

obviously including NBA stuff, which Alex is involved in. Golf products we are very proud of, continuing to push out some winners round by round. Lots of good stuff there. New sports coming. Another sport that we can announce shortly, coming very, very soon, a little bit after the Super Bowl. We'll continue to kind of grow the product.

We're going to have some exciting college basketball stuff when the tournaments and even conference games are starting to come in. So definitely want to check that out. Hang with us. That is in the show notes, 444.com slash plans for Alex and Connor. I am Ryan. We will see for Alex and Connor. I'm Ryan. We will see you all next week.