Move The Line - Prop Drop: Divisional Round Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: January 22, 2022

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick.  On this week's episode, Connor, Ryan and Alex discuss their top Divisional Round NFL player prop bets.  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Use Promo Code 4FOR4 on Prop Swap for a first-time deposit match up to $500 + a FREE Move the Line shirt (Minimum $5 deposit) 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3r2JF04  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Divisional Round Prop Drop Intro 5:27 Connor Prop No. 1 8:16 Ryan Prop No. 1 11:40 Alex Prop No. 1 13:27 Connor Prop No. 2 14:42 Ryan Prop No. 2 19:29 Alex Prop No. 2 23:25 Prop Swap Ad 24:25 Connor Prop No. 3 29:06 Ryan Prop No. 3 30:45 Alex Prop No. 3 33:31 Props Betting Cards Recap 34:23 Viewer Props Q + A 53:34 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 58:26 Divisional Round Prop Drop Outro

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by PropSwap. Head over to PropSwap.com or download the app today. Enter our promo code four for four when you make your first deposit find folks over at propswap will match it up to five hundred dollars i am ryan noonan joined here as always by my two favorite fellow prop degenerates connor allen what is going on my friends uh you know another day another dollar you know just out here grinding them prop streets uh got some good bets for today, I think. I mean, we actually, I felt pretty good that we had some good early stuff, you know, like a bunch of great early line movement and some of our props. Yeah. Stuff we can't talk about tonight because it's dead. oh, I got like one or two left. I got, I had nothing. So I had, you know, dig deep,

got a play that I haven't posted anywhere. And, you know, the other ones are fresh. So we're ready to go. Man of the people, Connor Allen, putting in work, grinding the prop streets after he's already got CLV to the moon. So yeah, we had some rushing props on the quarterbacks that those numbers have dissipated in quick, short order there. So, yeah, we hit some rushing props on the quarterbacks. Those numbers have dissipated in quick, short order there.

Also joining us, as always, our buddy Propy, Propstars. Alex, what's going on, my man? Ryan, what's good? Brother Connor, good to see you. Is that a new backdrop, Connor? Nope, nope. Still stuck in the high place in Bloomington. I think the lighting is a little different. Yeah, the fixture, I think, was behind your other shoulder in the last week.

Yeah, I wasn't sure. Are you sure? I think you've been in the garden. You've been in the garden before? I'm pretty sure, guys. I mean, I'm almost positive it's the same i mean connor would know because he probably does it the same but i mean good for you though alex i mean no judgment here i mean i mean high place has not yet given me the authority to move stuff around

in the room yet even though i like basically live here i am able to walk around and do whatever i want in the rest of the hotel, but no furniture movements yet. Do you wear shoes when you leave your room? Almost all the time. I actually went down to get food shoeless yesterday, and I felt really gross about it. That's when you know you're right at home. Yeah. I mean, I just got out of the shower. I was like, whatever, fuck it. I mean, I just walked down there and, you know, what are they going to say? Did you get a cranberry juice in a yogurt container?

Yeah, let's talk. What's going on down there? How are we doing? Oh, it's, I mean, it's not bad. They got like those, like, you know, nice dispensers of like orange juice and like hot tea all the time and hot coffee. Oh, fresh tap. Yeah, yeah, it's good stuff. I mean, it's, I mean, all things considered. Yeah, all things considered.

Well, we appreciate the updates. It's always good to find out what you're going, what's going on with you out there in the woods in Indiana. We miss you here in the Chicagoland area. We are going to do what we typically do in this space. Alex, get this out. Get your people in here. Get them fired up.

Let's get your Twitter questions. Let's get some questions in the chat. We're going to go around the horn here. We each have three props for you, then uh we will answer your questions and then we will also dive into producer sal's prop tool player bet of the week as we always do in the space obviously the pickings are getting a little thin because we only have four games uh but we are doing our best to uh to tackle all these and again hit us up with a chat that way we get any angles that you're looking at we want to make sure that we take care of those for you.

Things that you're considering. But this is, in my opinion, the best football weekend of the year. I think that's kind of the general consensus too. I mean, we have eight teams. I think Connor pointed this out on our Wednesday show.

We got eight teams that really belong. We don't feel like we have any of the hanger honors, the Steelers, no condolences to the Steelers and the Eagles. It was great that you made the playoffs and everything, but like we feel like these teams all kind of are live at this point to win the Superbowl and good football makes for good content. And hopefully we have some of that here for you.

Also want to remind you, we have set the clock forward. We talked about it last week. You can go over now, 444.com slash plans. You can get a betting sub. It's going to get you access to everything on our site, everything betting-wise, tools, content, subscriber-only Discord. If you still do DFS, you get that. Season-long, Dynasty, Best Ball, Redraft, everything. And then all the sports that we do too that's always on

the betting side so 444.com slash plans betting stuff is going to take you from now until next february february of 2023 so it is a great deal short-term temporary discount to get started you can find that out over there check it out if you have any questions let us know we're happy to help and let's get it started conor, your first prop of the division round, my friend. All right. My first prop is Allen Lazard over 38 and a half receiving yards. It has been a tradition of mine to take Allen Lazard unders. But the reality is now we're looking at Marquez Valdez-Scantling out, and you're looking at the 49ers in Packers game. We talked about the handicap in general,

but I've played a lot of prop bets in this game based on how I expect this game to go. I expect the 49ers to go very run heavy. I expect them to lean on the running attack, and I expect them to have success doing so. On the same hand, the 49ers run defense is very strong. And I expect the, you know, second in EPA and I expect the Packers to go a little bit pass heavier than

normal. I know that you're on some of the pass passing overs as well for the Packers, Noonan. And so, you know, with those things considered here, now we're looking at like the number two option here, Aaron Rodgers, probably going to go passively against a relatively average 49er secondary. I think that over 38 is a good look here. I also think the over three and a half receptions at plus money, I think that that's interesting as well. He's hit that in each of his past two games.

As he sees a bigger role, I think that this is another good spot for him to continue that ascendance. Also, 38 yards is basically, I mean, it's like nothing for, you know, for that, for a guy like that that can, you know, really, really pop one off at any time. I've, you know, been on the tail end of losing one of those on a pretty similar number on one catch. My only concern, Randall Cobb comes back. I'm sure that'll draw a little bit.

He'll probably get a little bit of attention. But at the same time, like, I mean, there's enough to go around where, you know, four or five targets, you know, five, six targets, and whatever 10 to 12 Devonta Adams, I think that's very much in the range of outcomes. Yeah. And Randall Cobb's coming fresh off of, you know, core surgery and has missed, you know, eight weeks. So sure. He's probably fine,

but he steps into a role that has been Lazar does in a, in a role that's kind of been ascending anyway. So I tailed it. As soon as you pop that one up, I think it makes a lot of sense. As soon as that MVS news broke, and I think when we get confirmation, we don't typically see doubtful to active. But I think when we get that confirmation, we probably see even a little bit more steam on it quite a bit. So I like that one a lot.

I have a theme this week. We've had themes this season. Connor is the bad quarterback theme, right? Bad quarterback unders, and he's crushed all season. I believe I had an exclusively, multiply exclusive like wide receiver overs week. I had a tight ends week that I think I had like four tight end props on the show. This is a play the best plays week.

I am leaning into studs and i'm leaning into teams not wanting to go home get on the plane after the playoff game ended with their tail between the legs going i didn't get my stud the ball so we're gonna go studs only my first one debo samuel over 38 and a half rushing yards i took took this in our Discord on Wednesday at 35 and a half, but I'm going to give it tonight as well at 38 because I still think it's in play. What Debo has been doing this season is, I mean, it's reported, but I feel like it's still underrated how awesome he has been as a runner. You think through the first nine weeks of the season, we didn't think anything of it.

He had six carries for 22 yards and was dominating as a receiver he's just rolling out of bed eight nine ten targets crushing there getting close to a thousand receiving yards but then through poor performance at the position injuries at the position kyle shanahan just has unleashed this stud and we have just seen this multi- multifaceted dude take over football games and i was basically getting 13 interactions a game at least over the last month or two between carries and uh and targets and it's really been leaning on the carries and the congress point this is the there's a mismatch on both sides of the ball the niners going to be able to run the football and they're not going to want to pass the ball in the cold. Jimmy G's beat up. They're going to lean on Elijah Mitchell and they were

going to go heavy on Debo as well. I love this play. I would play it up to 40. Just some of the actual stats. There's some stuff from an EPA standpoint, some stuff from PFF too. So he's had, Samuel has had 80 backfield snaps this season. the epa for the the niners offense on those snaps is 0.337 we don't have great context of what that means yet but the the 0.337 is more than double of what the bucks offense is which is 0.143 that's the leader in epa from an offensive standpoint per play so like he is more than double the most efficient offense in the league from an epa standpoint when he is taking a backfield snap he has the highest broken tackle rate that pff has ever tracked with guys had that have more

than 50 touches the dude is insane with the ball in his hands there there's no way they're not going to give him eight carries in this game. He's super efficient in doing so. 38.5 is not a high threshold. I mean, I'm telling you 40 because, again, I got it at 35.5. I put a sprinkle on him for the leading rusher this weekend at 35-1 earlier. I think that he has a massive game. He has massive big playability.

Love Debo in this spot. Alex, what do you got, buddy buddy i love this play as well i also gave this out to my slack group at 35 and a half yards actually the only play i've given out so far to my slack group that is how much i love this prop um yeah i've uh love it at 35 i think it's absolutely in play at 38 and a half. I second your take regarding Debo. It is not talked about enough just how dynamic this guy is. His ability to seamlessly transition from running back to wide receiver is something I've never seen before. In my opinion, he should be the front runner for offensive player of the year.

As well, I know Cooper Cup had a historically great season. I know Jonathan Taylor obviously had an the year as well i know cooper cup had a historically great season i know jonathan taylor obviously uh had an excellent season as well but yeah just uh debo's ability to play both positions even when he plays quarterback he looks like the best quarterback on san francisco so yeah this guy is absolutely phenomenal just electric with the ball on his hands and yeah something i've never seen before so absolutely love that play ryan my first play i'm to stick with something that is somewhat correlated and is in this game and that is going to be Brandon Ayuk under four and a half receptions I got this at minus 135 at Caesars Ayuk has only caught five

passes in five of 17 games this season despite the uptick in recent production the 49ers like you had briefly touched on are still a slow pace run first offense Jimmy G is also dealing with a variety of injuries and ailments the weather in Green Bay is supposed to be frigid sub 10 degrees not conducive to a lot of passing 49ers also have a negative six percent pass rate over expected only the titans are more tilted towards the run uh playing the packers who are as you mentioned a lot easier to run against than they are to attack through the air as well similar to the 49ers they also play very very slowly they led the nfl in time of possession this season that was certainly by design in my opinion as well uh you catch just 1.44 yards per route run just a risky bet in my opinion, as well. Iuke has just 1.44 yards per route run.

Just a risky bet, in my opinion, in a low-volume environment. Between the frigid temperatures, Garoppolo's injuries, both teams looking to chew up a ton of clock. I think this is a great spot to fade Iuke this week. Yeah, like you said, it's going to be path to the least resistance for them is going to be running the football. Jimmy G's all dinged up with the shoulder, with the thumb, with you said, it's going to be path to the least resistance for them is going to be running the football. Jimmy G's all dinged up with the shoulder, with the thumb, with the weather, all those variables.

And we just haven't seen ceiling games really from Ayuk. He's been, like, steady for a while, but, like, there just hasn't been these massive, massive games. I don't think this is a spot for him to do it to. Jerry Alexander coming back, all these different things. So, yeah, I like that one quite a bit. Three plays from the Saturday night cap there. connor what is uh play number two for you well i'm actually you know doubling down here my play number two is also on brandon iukes under

i took the under 53 and a half yards uh i think kind of same analysis there you know i just don't think that they're really gonna pass enough and if when he does he's gonna see gyro alexander a bunch and you know there's just so many ways for him to go under here so i think that the under receptions i looked at too i wasn't able to grab the minus 135 most other outs are like minus 140 minus 145 i even see some minus 160s at that point i mean it's a lot of juice to pay but same time i mean five receptions is a lot. So I leaned under on the yard just because of the juice, but I think that both are good plays to be able to find, you know, anything below minus one 40. Only juice when you lose Connor.

That's true. I mean, that's what our good friend George says, you know, something, something, something, right? I mean, I'm going to walk away from anything like that but yeah well i think that that's a a solid look uh alex gave good analysis on that too for sure so uh yeah it's only juice when you lose all right um again play the best place jamar chase over 76 and a half receiving yards again you want to get in our discord this is a little bit lighter on wednesday i took it i still feel good with it at 76 and a half it's a big number but this is a big boy football player and uh the bangles have

been skewing more pass centric of late over the past four weeks. Their pass rate over expectation is up 8% when the game is within three points and it's up 14% when they're leading by more than a field goal. So kind of against what you would think when they would start to go run heavy, they are just finding that they are more efficient and more successful passing the football. We've been kind of clamoring for this team to go pass heavy and they've started to do so.

The numbers are starting to back that out in a neutral script. So, and Jamar Chase has really solidified himself as the alpha here. We have three straight roles or weeks where he is in that dominant role, 10 targets, 12 targets, 12 targets in the last three games where the starters are played. We've got a target share North of 30%. We have an air yard share North of 52%. He's just an absolute beast. And then we have a Titan secondary that is 28th in explosive pass rate allowed over the last eight weeks. Jack Rabbit Jenkins, which is, again, I talked about this on the DFS show. What a boss move to change your name from Janoris to Jack Rabbit. Like, it is very much an alpha move.

He's probably not going to play. So we have a weak secondary that's going to be even more decimated for the Titans. Again, there's no shot that Joe Burrow is going to be standing on the sideline in the fourth quarter, holding his helmet, getting the absolute, you know, his ass kicked in going, I wish I would have thrown to Jamar Chase more. They're going to throw to Jamar Chase. The matchup here to win is vertical on the outside jamar chase explodes our projections have them like 104 yards which we typically do sometimes we have these spots where like remember last year connor like

dk medcalf every week was like 105 yards like projected wise like oh yeah this is where jamar chase is now and we have to kind of acknowledge that that's who he is that's kind of the chemistry that they have and uh play the best plays. Love it. Love it. I mean, I was, I thought about taking Higgins too. And I think that, I mean, it's kind of like fishy, but I feel like, you know, burrow overs are also in play, you know, just because, I mean, the only concern there is volume. It's just, but even then, like does it matter? Like, I mean, they should just pass all game and pass all over this Titansan's team so it's gonna be fun yeah what do you guys think if i change the name to

jackrabbit selznick i think you should like really well i'm so curious i probably could do a little bit of digging and find out why but like i mean first of all change your name as an adult anyway is kind of an alpha move. Agreed. To go from Janoris to Jackrabbit is so strong that I have just a ton of respect for him. I hope he takes the week off because we want to catch some props. But, like, man, Jackrabbit. What did you think about the whole, like, meta world peace thing? You know, I thought that that's – I loved it.

I loved it as well. Yeah. I mean, if you're not – I loved it. I loved it as well. I agree with Ryan. Anytime you change your name legally as an adult, it is an alpha strong move. Commands of automatic respect for me. I'm looking for a name change. I'm in the market. I'm going over some options right now.

If anyone wants to submit some, even right now, feel free to. Imagine hating world peace. You can't even say you hate world peace because then you're hating world peace. So like all of the good ones, too. So back in the day, even before my time in the NBA is world be free. Love world be free.

Oh, yeah. World be free. Recently, we've had Enos Cantor become Enos Freedom, which boss move. Ochocinco. Ochocinco. Yeah. I mean, so like there's it's a hundred percent boss move ratio like there's no there's no week maybe i'm missing one but i can't think of a time

where it was like ultimate warrior changed his name to ultimate warrior as well like his actual legal name was ultimate warrior oh man i mean you have to be so secure with yourself that you don't have to explain shit to anyone you know what i mean like imagine something like oh like nice to meet you i'm you know alex the guy i'm ultimate warrior he actually did that because the i believe this is true don't quote me on this but the wwe or wF at the time wanted to trademark his character because they own the rights to the characters after you leave. So in order to maintain his name, he legally changed it to Ultimate Warrior because he couldn't use the name Ultimate Warrior if he was wrestling outside of WWF. So it's actually a pretty genius move on this. It actually is.

Yeah. I wonder if uh i wonder if coco beware give that consideration you know good segue into my next prop which i actually think this the theme of the night has been uh correlated props i think this one correlates beautifully with the jamar chase one that ryan just gave out is joe mixing under 60 and a half rushing yards found this at minus 115 on DraftKings. Also available on FanDuel. This number is available on every book that I saw.

Yes, Mixon's been held under in five of six games. Five of the last six games, excuse me. Averaging right around three yards per carry. Pretty ineffective over that span as well. Ryan talked about it. The Bengals have become a much more pass-centric, pass-heavy offense as well. The Titans are also very solid against the run. They rank 11th in EPA allowed per rush.

The Titans have actually allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, 1,087. Only four yards more allowed than the Bucs, who were first in this category. I don't typically associate the Titans with a dominant rush defense, but they've been excellent this season. Titans have not allowed a running back to eclipse this total since week eight when Jonathan Taylor did it. They've only allowed three running backs all season.

I was blown away when I saw this. Two eclipsed 60 yards rushing. Jonathan Taylor, I was blown away when I saw this. Two Eclipse 60 yards rushing. Jonathan Taylor, I mentioned in week eight. James Robinson back, I believe, in week five. And then in week one, Chase Edmonds. Only three running backs all season. And it came in the first half of the season.

So, yeah, I think this is just a great spot to fade Joe Mixon. I think the Bengals are going to throw the ball quite a bit. And Tennessee has a very, very, very stout rush defense. So taking Joe Mixon under 16 and a half, I feel like it should have opened at like 53 or 54 yards. Yeah, I think that's a good look. Again, correlates with the chase playing, again, more so the pass rate over expectation stuff where they're starting to be a little bit more aggressive on first down, second down. We have Eric Eager on our show on Wednesday from PFF. Eric is there in Cincinnati. He's attended multiple games.

Of course, some of the recent games too. And he said, nothing takes the air out of that stadium, like early carry or, you know, early down Joe Mixon carry. So they're starting to understand. The Bengals led the NFL in rushing attempts on first down. I know that was like a big point of contention because of how effective Joe Burrow has been and how ineffective Mixon has been and just how predictable the play calling us was. So it's nice to see them transition away from that a bit and become a more pass-heavy offense

when you have Jamar Chase, Tyler Boyd, T. Higgins. Yeah, it's hard. And Joe Burrow. it's hard not to air the ball out a ton. I think early in the season, they were reluctant to really test him with his knee. They were a massive pass-heavy offense last year. We were expecting them, too, to come back and do it this year, and then they were a little reluctant to. But I think we're kind of in the spot now where Zach Taylor knows

he can't put the Ferrari back in the garage. It's already out. We're going. It's warmed warmed up so we need to continue to lean on it and yeah mixon's probably you know he's an above average rusher he's a talented three down back but he is not going to be able to get you you just look at what basic standard league average epa ever play even the top uh elite rushing offenses aren't even close to like some of the bottom of the league passing offenses. It just is such a better way to move the football. And sometimes it takes these teams a little bit to recognize that. But here we are and wheels up for Bengals passing game.

So, all right. We have each shared two. We each have one more to go and then we're going to get to your questions. So, again, continue to fill up questions in the chat. We will highlight those and make our way through and tackle anything that you have. What's on your card. What is on your mind?

What do you have in your cart at the sports book that you haven't clicked by yet that you want to run by us first. Want to help all those for you. Also want to tell you again, a little bit more about our sponsor prop swap again, prop swap.com, or you can download the app, use our promo code 444,

and they will match your initial deposit up to $500. Fantastic features like filtering based off best value. They have a free activity feed where you can stay in the know with all the big sales, a new hot ticket for sale thing that's up there too. And then if you start to get into a little bit, loyalty rewards with extra bonus cash, much, much more. Um, I was digging around today. There are still some great stuff. If you're looking to get something, if you're still in

the bangles, like we are, there are some bangles numbers that are still in like the 17s or 18 to one to win the super bowl where the market has them around 12. Uh, there's a Niners ticket out there that is like seven and a half to one to win the NFC, whereas the market has them at five to one. So again, a good spot to take advantage of futures. If you had something, you have your ticket that you want to sell, then maybe you want to cash out. It's a great place to do that too for buying and selling. So again, propswap.com, promo code 444, and it will match your first deposit up to 500 bucks. Connor, take us home. Prop number three. Prop number three.

Something that, you know, we've actually been hitting a lot of the Saturday games, it looks like, right? Just basically, you know, almost Saturday exclusive here, I think. Yeah, almost. Yeah, you know, this is not on purpose. I just think that, you know, we are where we are. There's still a few things that need to be dropped in the Sunday game.

So we'll kind of take that for what it's worth. But here I like C.J. Uzoma under 32.5 receiving yards. He's available at DK, also 31.5 at FanDuel, PointsBet, most other legal shops. I think this line's a little bit inflated due to his recent performance. He's obviously played better as of late, but now draws the toughest matchup amongst all the pass catchers. Safety, Kevin Byard, will probably cover him for a good chunk of the game.

The rest of the tight end secondaries you guys mentioned, pretty weak. So, you know, if you have the option to throw to CJ Ozoma or Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, Tyler Boyd, I think that, you know, he kind of falls to that fourth, you know, maybe even fifth in the pecking order behind, you know, like Joe Mixon potentially even in the passing game, and his lines closer to 20. So I think that at that point, like, we're really going to see, you know, Uzoma struggle.

I mean, he has gone under 40 yards in 13 of his 17 games. He's gone under 32.5 in 10 of 17 games. So, you know, obviously the recent usage has kind of propped up his line a little bit, but I think that, you know, all things considered in the matchup, I really think that he should probably be closer to like 28, 29, and he'll probably end up in the 20s when it's all said and done. Yeah, Titans are third in DVOA against the tight end position this season. They already talked about the secondary on the outside being weak.

The safeties are really strong. So that's kind of what's going to match up against the tight end like Azoma. So, yeah, I like that look quite a bit. Again, this all correlates really well. It's like we did this together. I mean, we're doing this together. We did do this together. We do this together, but our plays

happened organically. Yeah, I think they grew. Did you prune them this morning? It was like three chefs that entered the kitchen together we didn't talk about what dish we were making we all brought the same or different ingredients and then we just cooked something up that was just a great prop stew you know just fucking yeah a beautiful prop porridge i had some connor special ingredients i threw some some stuff from the garden in there as well.

Let's spice it up. It's coming out well so far. We're eating well. It's coming out well so far. You're going to absolutely love it. Happy Ozark Day to anyone out there who celebrates. Don't talk to Alex about it. He is willing

and able to spoil anything for you. I just couldn't believe that died. If you haven't watched Ozark... I just said something and I think it was muted. I'm going to say it again. I couldn't believe that... If you don't watch Ozark, you missing out it's a great show um yeah we don't need to do another

10-15 minute show on tv but uh watch Ozark people like that episode I mean I don't know that's our highest rated episode on rtb actually they love their game of thrones discussions uh Ozark discussions are are equally tremendous so Definitely check that out. We'll be having a Twitter Spaces episode about that. All I've got to say is that if after watching Narcos and Ozark, if you don't want to be a drug lord, I think you're just like,

you didn't really watch. You didn't pay attention. I don't know that I really want to after watching Ozark. Maybe not. He's beenering money in this hotel. That's why he's in that hotel. He's like Ruth. He's laundering money in that crusty old hotel. You better check behind the Bible and check the floorboards at that hotel. I love Ruth.

I don't know about – that's the best Ruth line ever. I'm a big Darlene fan. You would be. You would be. When you say fan... Yeah, I think she's a fan. Those are your favorite scenes? Those are my favorite scenes.

I love Jacob as well. Yeah? You want to be Jacob for Halloween? I love his little, like, saying as well. You want to be Jacob for Halloween? I love his little sayings as well. The sayings he would come up with, the stories. It was such a great introduction

to Jacob where he told that hillbilly story and Darlene just comes and stabs that dude in the neck. That was great. Everyone watch Ozark. it's it's fantastic uh all right i'm last of my play the best plays picks this week and a little different i'm gonna give you because we're talking about this in our discord having some good discussions around

you know the again packers passing game connor's on alan lazard i tail that we think that they're going to struggle to run i really wanted to take some unders on the packers rushing game but some of those numbers are a little too light uh both from a carry standpoint in the yards like because again we liked it with zeke last week against this niners defense but like both jones and dylan have a little bit more juice in the tank than what zeke has so stayed away from those so far we'll kind of watch and see if they get steamed at all. But I like the Packers passing game. And again, 18 targets in the first game that they played back in week three. Devontae Adams is going to be a massive part of this game. The Niners do not have anyone in the back half to slow him down.

And Rodgers is going to be forced to throw. So I'm doing a plus 167 on FanDuel. Same game parlay. Aaron Rodgers over 2644.5 passing yards. Devontae Adams, over 94.5 is what it is now, 94.5 receiving yards. Got a 91.5, I think, a couple days ago in our Discord. Sign up for a sub, get in our Discord,

get the best of the number. Again, for all those points, they're going to struggle to run the ball. They will attempt to run the ball. I think they will have an efficient passing game. Again, they are not going to be deterred by the weather, and Devontae Adams, there's no one stopping him. Again, 18 targets in the first game.

There's no way he's leaving without 10 to 12 here. Has big playability. Love this one. Plus 167 on FanDuel. All right. That'll bring me to our final play, my third and final play. It is Devin Singletary over 82.5 combined rushing and receiving yards. I saw this line actually on FanDuel.

I believe it's 84 on other books. So if you have access to FanDuel, there's my guy, Ultimate Warrior, and me combined love that thank you but uh yeah i would be the fan of course if you do have access to this um yeah single theory he's had at least 80 rushing yards alone in four of the last five games double digit carries in five straight games he's averaged 18 and a half rushing attempts per game over that sample he's cleared this number in five of six games. His only miss was that funky snow game against the Patriots.

Still came up very close. He was only five yards short in that game. He's completely dominating backfield touches for Buffalo. Zach Moss had just one rushing attempt last week in the Buffalo's most important game versus New England while Matt Breida was inactive. So that should give you an indication that they fully trust Singletary in this backfield. He is their guy. Bills have been a lot more balanced. It's clearly working for them.

I read an article. I think I actually talked about this last week. The bills have been deploying a six offensive lineman a lot more recently. They did a season high 16 times and week 18 versus the jets. I wasn't able to find out actually how many times they did last week versus in a lot more recently. They did a season high 16 times in week 18 versus the Jets. I wasn't able to find out actually how many times they did last week versus the Patriots, but there has clearly been a concerted effort and an emphasis to become a much more balanced team, multidimensional, just running the ball a lot more.

I think Kansas City is a good matchup as well, ranked 20th in rushing BBOA. They're giving up an average of 143 combined rushing and receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. That is the sixth most in the NFL. Chiefs have allowed a back-to-eclipses number in five of the last seven games as well. So I absolutely love Devin Singletary over 82.5 combined rushing and receiving yards. I like it, man. I like it.

This is a good show. I feel like there's some good juju happening here. Again, that one's not correlated with all the rest of our stuff, but again, it fits. I think you did a good job laying it out. Producer Sal, as always, fantastic job with the Ultimate Warrior. Again, if you're listening on the podcast, we appreciate that very much. Rate and review. Subscribe.

That way you don't miss a show. Let's other people find us. Keep the lights on. Keeps it free. We also do it on YouTube as well. You can watch and hang out with us. It gets a little bit more interactive. Sal on the ones and twos behind the scene here is always putting up some cool stuff for us to keep it light and keep it fresh.

So, all right, let's touch on some of the questions here from our listeners. Again, we're going to hang out with you and, you know, answer some of your stuff. So, before, let's recap what we have here. I'll run down if you were joining late or if you were listening. First, from Connor, Alan Lazard, over 30.5 receiving yards. He also has a Brandon Ayuk, under 53.5 receiving yards, and CJ Uzoma, under 32.5 receiving yards and C.J. Uzoma under 32.5 receiving yards. So no bad quarterbacks left in the playoffs.

Forces Conner to take wide receiver in tight end plays. I hit on Debo Samuel over 38.5 rushing yards. Jamar Chase over 76.5 receiving yards. And the same game parlay at plus 167 on Rogers and Adams over their numbers, play the best plays week here on move the line. And then Alex wraps us up with the Devon Singletary over 82 and a half rushing and receiving combines Joe Mixon under 60 and a half Brandon Iuke

under four and a half receptions. All right, folks, your turn time to get into some stuff here brian has a question on our thoughts on jamar chase top wide receiver from a receiving yard standpoint for the divisional round at 10 to 1 and then elijah mitchell as the rushing leader at plus 450 i know that our boy dalton Slack, Dalton's been absolutely killing these special markets all season long. And I know we got the Mitchell down at 475. I know that he gave Chase out. Let me see what the Chase number is. Cause I know that that one was given out too. Cause again, he waits for these and then pops them, pops the ones he likes right away. And he's been all over the, I'll say a case is held at 10 to one.

So yeah. Yeah. I mean, I have a sprinkle of both. You guys have any opinions here? I think both are worth a sprinkle. Obviously there's going to be some excellent wide receivers still playing today, looking across the board, Stefan Diggs, Cooper Cup, Mike Evans. Yeah, just Devontae Adams, obviously, just a lot of excellent. I think most of the leagues of lead wide receivers are still left. So, yeah, I think definitely worth a sprinkle.

Seems to me like it's priced fairly appropriately. I do like the Elijah Mitchell one a bit more. If I had to pick between the two, I do think there's a great case. He may end up leading the slate in rushing attempts, which obviously correlates well to yardage. And if they get rolling, I could see him being in the triple digits. So, yeah, if you also look at the projected rushing total, I believe he's first as well,

which would obviously indicate that he's projected to rush for quite a few yards as well. So, yeah, that looks good too. Yeah. I think that another one play that he liked as well was T. Higgins, 20-1 to have most receiving yards. I think that's – I'm more inclined to do that, I think, just because of the odds.

Because I think that he, in that range, I think he's the only one capable – I mean, he had, what, 194 a couple weeks ago. Soft matchup. Like, you know, everyone is down on him after he did nothing last week. You know, I think that this is a good bounce back spot. Like, you know, I'm not saying there's odds to be that much more than 20-1 on FanDuel. But, I mean, you're looking at, like, maybe he should be in the tier above, like right now he's,

he's tiered with like, like Gronk and like, you know, Debo. Tyler Boyd. Tyler Higby, you know, like,

like that's like too low, you know, like he shouldn't, he should be above that. But obviously as Alex mentioned, I mean, there's like, you know,

seven or eight guys were capable of putting up like 150, 200 yards here. Yeah. No one at those odds possesses the ceiling that T Higgins though. Exactly. So I think that if you want to play this market for me, it's, it's the T Higgins play. His ceiling is as good as any receiver. In my opinion, I got down on three in this market.

I took both Bengals guys and I got Tyreek Hill at 14 to one. Just egregious for him to be... Again, there's a laundry list of dudes that are alphas, and again, that's why they're in the playoffs, not by accident. I know he hasn't been great of late, but we're talking about Tyreek Hill and the best game environment of the slate. So yeah, that one was a mistake too. But yeah, we have a question here from Zach around T. Higgins as well.

We can touch on him. He's variable, isn't stupid. Why wouldn't he double? I'm assuming he means chase. Teams just don't – they just don't double often. It's just not like – you don't play a lot of man where you'd be doubling two guys on one. It just isn't something that – it's just not something you could do

against a Bengals team like this. It's just not how things make sense. You would think that every team would just double Devontae Adams all the time. Why can we ever throw him the ball 18 times? Why wouldn't you just double him? It's just not how you play defense. They do bracket, though.

They bracket. And that's what the Ravens did against Adams. They either doubled or bracketed on every play. But, I mean, I think he's – like, Rodgers still should have hit him for – like, he missed him on, like, what would have been, like, a 50-yard pass. So, like, I mean, he ended up with, like, 50 still. Yeah. And it should have been, like, 100.

But the bracket gets harder when you run crossers through a zone. It gets harder to track. Oh, yeah. Things get out of position so yeah the they have you know there's no there's nothing like that duo in green bay they have they've been dealing with this for years now they're very efficient in understanding how to work around those things so yeah and i think they might not have that chemistry yet in cincinnati but they have more guys that i think it's harder to account for than what the the packers run out so it is even harder to do that because yeah we love jamar chase and he has been kind of separating himself but it's hard to argue with t hagen ceiling here as well so yeah

very much like that play and um didn't take him in just the normal prop market but i think sprinkling him here in the in the futures and the specials, I think makes a lot of sense. SC wants to know about Jawan Jennings. Over two and a half receptions at plus money. Seems to be the third look for Jimmy G here. Yeah, I think he's been pretty consistently the third guy. Anyone have any thoughts on even money for Jawan Jennings? Yeah, I mean, so I was on the under last time but the thing is like as

that guy was mentioning he's saying he's like his third down like uh guy so like you know every single time on third down it looked like he was just gonna pass to jennings and he looked for him immediately so even though he was barely seeing any work on first down second down you know none of that like no early down work anytime there was a third down like a any like short and intermediate even like it was like just like automatic targetogenic. So I think that the over is probably the play there. It's just that you're going to have to run hot on them getting a third down and there being like, you know, that play.

I mean, that's for me, and that's a little bit too thin to take an over on, but I would definitely lean over. I mean, it's enough for me to stay away from the under for sure. Yeah, 38% of the team's targets on third down last week, which is pretty significant. But his overall routes run dropped quite a bit. He went from 84% down to 59% last week. And again, in a run-heavy game script, that's going to happen.

So if they do get in the lead or they stay neutral here, it makes it pretty hard for, for Jennings. So you have to kind of think about how you expect the game script to go here. All right. Next, we have a question on Derek Henry under 80 and a half,

essentially being priced. Like he will be at at least 80% effectiveness. Again, talking about the issues with the foot injury shades Shades of Edelman in 2013, re-breaking his foot in the championship game. Yeah, I mean, a running back coming off of a foot injury is not great. There are definitely outs here. The problem I had with 80.5, which I do think is probably still a little too high,

was that I missed the initial pop on Henry, which opened up even higher. So I still would lean under. Not a play that I'm making officially, though. Alex, do you have any thoughts on Derek Henry in this spot? I pretty much agree. Just not knowing what he's going to look like. Tough for me. But yeah, I think that getting it when it was it opened at 83, you said, right?

I think that was a good move. But yeah, I tend to stay off when things sort of adjust. I feel like this seems pretty efficient, all things considered. I do anticipate him having a significant workload if he's healthy at this stage or relatively. He's suiting up at this stage of the season. It's not to split backfield work with Dante Foreman. He's going to get 15 to 18 carries at minimum, in my opinion. So yeah, I'm personally staying away.

I think if you like the Bengals, Connor, it's hard to swallow the Derrick Henry stuff. Yeah, I can't go over. But at the same time, like, this is one of those plays where I think either side you pick, like, if you were on the wrong side, you're going to feel dumb because it's going to be like, how could I fade Derrick Henry in a relatively good matchup, you know, coming back and he looks good in practice, like, if he goes way he looks good in practice. Like if he goes way over, you know,

and then you take the over, you're like, how could I bet on the over on an injured player that like, you know, it's just seeing work and like, you know, we knew the Bengals had a chance to like to win or at least we liked them. I liked them to win. So, you know, like, I feel like either way, like you can talk yourself in, you want to double down here, probably or what? Let's do it, baby. I mean, yeah, I'm, I yeah i'm i'm down um maybe not double down but we can run it back you know uh let's run it back yeah what happened what where are we let me tell you guys exactly what happened i tweaked i

tweaked yeah he got scared what happened was we came to an agreement on a bet we came to agreement on the monetary mountain look at connor blushing right now we then on air discussed we were going to come up with an additional kind of uh yeah agreement or wager that was going to be really fun like connor staying in a hotel or i'm staying in a cd hotel tattoos like tattoos wearing a wig a dress etc i came up with multiple ideas, submitted them to Connor that evening. Nothing, not a word, not a peep, zip, nothing. Connor always gets back to me right away. So I knew something was up. No, I fell asleep and then I woke up. I knew he was shook. I got to you at like seven o'clock, Connor. It was like 7.30, maybe 8.00. I'm going to pull up the MFN receipts. I'm going to pull up the receipts. So not a word from Connor.

Then, of course, he starts chirping when the Bengals end up winning. I get a new day message from him. But it's like, dude, if you were that confident, you'd have me in a dress right now or staying in a fleabag motel, stepping on a needle if he had been as confident as he seems. So I want to not only do a monetary bet, I want to also do something

extracurricular as well. So if you have any ideas, Ryan, I'm all ears and I'm game. Neck tattoos. Neck tattoos, yeah, no regrets. Yeah. You remember forever. this is a memorable season this is a memorable show and i think the only way to really culminate all of those things is with

the loser getting a neck tattoo i mean i i mean i just don't see any holes in the argument okay i'll be honest with you so connor a couple months ago or about you know maybe two months ago at this point he left for indiana and he's changed he's a different person he is i've noticed changing as well we have other friends that used to get back to me he's just different man he's different he's always moral set of values sells money he cashes this you know rashad penny ticket go to indiana is printing money in Indiana. Looking like Eric Weddle. He's a different person.

So I apologize. Hopefully he works through this in the offseason and then we can come back together strong with the Conor Allen that we love for the first 10 weeks of the season on shows that he appeared on. And then we can start to dial it back next year and start to do your environment that has a great effect and influence on your personality and your behavioral traits so yeah yeah just getting out of indiana is it bloomington that connor's that yeah it's the water here it's like it's like it turned me into like venom you know like sometimes

i just get like voices you know and like i can myself. You know, it's a lot of parasites. He's used to go into bed, fall asleep with his lovely fiance. And now it's having to put his shoes on to go outside the bedroom. Yeah. Now it's a box of Kleenex and a bottle of Juergens and things are rough. You know, things are, things are rough. I. The tension that's coming from that, I think, is starting to ooze into the show and permeate our relationships. I see some staff infection

on the wall there. There's some staff. There's some MRSA back there too, so be careful. It's kind of eating away at his brain a little bit. Oh my god. We're done with this. No, you need to settle. I need to know what you guys are betting on. Again, I'm open.

Okay, quick receipts. I did respond actually 10 minutes after I said I like all of those. He said, do you want to contribute any? I said, no, those are all awesome. I forgot to tweet it out, though. When did you send that one, Connor? Nine in the morning before the game. You know I stay up all night in the lab.

This is like when I get my one or two hours. I am working from 9am until all day, actually until like right until game time. And I forgot. And then I sent you the taunting message after I watched my victorious Bengals team. Boom. Who day?

Because really the bragging rights was more important to me than watching you stay in a hotel. So we're going to bet $100. What's the nine? What are we taking? What's the official number here? I don't even know right now. Three and a half.

Three and a half? Three and a half everywhere. So you got the Bengals at three and a half? Yep. Easy dubs. Done. Done, done, done. All right, and then we'll do whoever loses has to like shotgun a beer we'll

do that how about that okay okay i actually don't drink well i mean not because of like an a thing i just don't drink so that that'll be a big deal for me actually i mean we can do something else i don't want to make you like uncomfortable why did i'm not i like i can drink i I'm not drinking because I had a problem. I just don't drink. Oh, okay. So Alex needs a shotgun and beer, and Connor needs to spend some time in the garden before the show. Exactly.

Because those are obvious. Connor can drink for sports, and Alex spends time in the garden. So we need to work out the details. We do. That's fine. We'll work out the details. We do. That's fine. We'll work out the details. We have two more.

We have – oh, man, this is great. I believe this is Patrick. That is Patrick McGriner. Patrick, you're off. Elite question. First of all, elite use of your YouTube subscription. Jack Rabbit McGriner wants to know about Julio Jones under 47 and a half receiving yards on points bet. That is a big number.

Connor and I love Julio. We took Julio week 18, cashed those tickets at 29 and a half yards. Coming off of his best game, well, second best game of the season, but he had nine targets. That was a season high. I actually like Julio Jones quite a bit this week. Yeah, I just think having that extra week of rest, no injury designation, he looked really good in week 18 as well. I'm expecting, I think that Henry coming back is also a plus for him as well. You have A.J. Brown opposite of him.

Furthermore, the Bengals actually, according to Football Outsiders, give up, I believe it's the third most production to opposing number two wide receivers. And they actually do a very good job covering opposing number one wide receivers. So just something to consider there, just if you're looking at A.J. Brown props. So yeah, I think that's just everything kind of matches up well for Julio. Obviously this opened, I want to say at 38 and a half, where it's since themed up quite a bit, but I like the three and a half receptions. You can get that mine. I might've put that out on a different platform, but yeah, I I'm not looking at Julio unders,

although I will say 47 and a half is probably where I would pass. I probably play it up to probably 43, 44 and a half, but yeah, to me it's over nothing personally. Connor, any thoughts there buddy? I almost, yeah, it's, I mean, it's just like it's about right now. It opened at 37, 38, and someone added us about it, and I was like, I don't know. You know, like I'm still not really sure.

Like I feel like we got like a better number before, and now I'm feeling foolish. We probably should have just played it. Chasing it, yeah. Brandon is in Bloomington and says there ain't much to do but to drink. Brandon, you need to go over to the local Duncan slash Baskin. Get yourself a cappuccino blast from our buddy, Connor Allen. Cause he is, that is his store. He is you know,

the owner over there and runs the ship. So you can go over and what's to do, but drink, drink some coffee, drink, drink a cappuccino blast with. And that's what I do all day. And then you just gotta drink your your pain away at night you know with actual stuff that's some dark stuff it's funny you know because i ask people what's a different person i asked him what to do in boomington and they're like oh like you can go hiking all stuff all that stuff. And I'm like, oh, that's cool. There are some nice trails and stuff.

And I'm like, okay, but what is there to do at night? And they're just like, well, drink. Connor, can I ask a question? College town. How many hikes have you been on since you've been in Bloomington? A grand total of one with my fiance and dog when she visited. So, yeah, I don't generally go hiking by myself. I like to imagine you hiking by yourself.

Fred wants to know about OBJ. OBJ, 46 and a half receiving yards. He has no lean here. That's so good. I can picture Connor like the camelback just out for a hike. After work, he's sad.

Just sad. I'm going to look at the quarter mile and be like, why the fuck am I doing this? Go sit in my bar and have a beer. Cor is light in his camelback just wasting the day away. and be like, why the fuck am I doing this? You know, like fucking go sit in my ass out in the bar and have a beer. Core is light in his camelback, just wasting the day away. Sad.

Sunsetting on Connor. Looking for points, but opportunities. Anyone have a thought on Fred's OBJ thoughts? I think that OBJ is in a, I mean, relatively decent spot here just in terms of his usage. But I think the matchup is a little bit tough. I have a tough time handicapping this game. I think that the under – we talked about this on Wednesday's show. I think the under – I like a lot of like – I thought about taking Brady under.

I'm not going to lie. I came really close. It was at 293. It's down to like 290. I think if it stayed at 293, I was probably going to do it. I mean, he has, like, all of his weapons banged up. Well, not all of them. A bunch of them banged up.

And, like, the interior pressure should be a lot for him. And he's not going to have those quick options. Like, I don't know. I think that it's – I think that some unders here are going to be in play. So, I think – I got to dig a little bit deeper and find out what it is. But for OBJ and the Rams, again, I'm just not really sure how they attack it. Like, you know, I think that there also could be an under team too, to be honest. I think this game could be like a, you know, 17, 14 game out of nowhere, even though this team has put up like 60 to 70,

I think last time they played. Yeah. I wanted the cam makers under, and I was driving when it dropped by the time I got to the ability. What did it come out at? Like 56 or 50, yeah, 56 and a half. Yeah, too high. And now it's down to like 50. Still think that that's a little too high considering all that's going on there.

But yeah, so still some stuff to kind of parse out in some of the Sunday games. So, again, we will be unpacking that all in our Discord over at 444.com. So check out that if you are in there. We'll be busy as always. Now it is time for Producer Sal's NFL Prop Tool Bet of the Week. Sal has been crushing. I forget what the number is. I'll tell you, put that in the chat.

I want to let everyone know you've been profitable for the season. I think he's up like seven, eight units here. But Sal, let's see what you got. Gabe Davis. All right. Gabe Davis over 35 and a half receiving yards here. Projections around 53 on Gabe with nice value here on this one. Obviously, again, something that's tied to Josh Allen is a place we probably want to be this weekend. You know, Gabe has really kind of solidified himself as the number two there,

even with, you know, Manny Sanders coming back. Big targets, you know, lots sanders coming back big big targets uh you know lots of a dot there on gabe davis uh prop stars giving it the thumbs up i'm guessing you uh have some thoughts here i do indeed i gave this out it was my favorite play that i gave out this morning on a uh different stream appearance absolutely love this prop had at least 30 receiving yards in seven straight games. It's cleared this total in eight of the last nine games overall. I am missing my notes, but, yeah, I absolutely love this spot for Gabe Davis.

35 targets over the last five games. Second on the team, only to Stephon Diggs. I believe this game is going to be high scoring as well. He's the most explosive receiver outside of Diggs. He leads all non-Diggs receivers with a 1.8 yards per route run. He can deliver a big week on a few

plays with a 14.0 average depth of target. Chiefs 23rd in passing give you away. Love the spot for Gabe Davis. He has my complete seal of approval as I gave this play out earlier. I love that you also write stuff down do you also do you write handwritten letters to people i do i do i love it you know no no need for technology you know you're prepared

for you could have lived in the you know in the medieval times and you're ready to live in the post-apocalyptic times you know i'm prepared for everything you're ready to go is it pencil or a pen i use pen okay sometimes i use mechanical pencils yeah i love i love that i mean you know the world could have a nuclear winter and all that would be left is alex's profits you know the sheets yeah we can't log in or power up our computers, but Alex has takes still because he wrote them all down. We need a journal, a big

binder with them all together. I bought a big journal thinking I would use it for that very reason, but I ended up trying to think of just loose paper. Proppy's Archaic library of prop bets. I should have a whole library behind me every season.

I do still write stuff out a little bit too. I have a little notebook that I use like for multiple sports. Like for golf, for instance, I'll write all the guys down that I'm interested in and then I'll write down, you know, where I want to bet them at. So I have that captured. So same thing, like I, when, before on Sunday morning, before games kick,

I actually write down all of my bets that I have from all the books in one spot. So I don't have to open. I can kind of try to remember what am I sweating? What do I need? What am I looking for? So I do still write stuff down too. So I feel like I retain information a lot better as well when I write it. I mean, everybody learns differently but um yeah for for doing all this streaming it actually really helps me if i write things down uh ahead of time because then i'm able to recall it when i'm on stream at a later time so it also kind of uh works and works for me in that uh aspect as well yep check some again reminder

the prop tool you're looking at here, if you're watching on YouTube, this is one of the many tools we have here at 444. We have this on the MBA side as well. We can basically look at what's out there in the marketplace. You can select by state, by book, by prop type. You can adjust props if you get something on an offshore book or something like that, it is uh related and ties into our projections here at four for four to get an understanding of where there is value our projections at four for four are um i would put toe-to-toe with anyone in the industry uh john paulson uh the man behind these competes year in and year out with hundreds of other people

on fantasy pros from an accuracy standpoint. And he rolls out of bed and finishes in the top 10 and has won multiple times over the last decade or so. So we feel very confident that our props and the process behind the projections are really solid. So this tool is, again, part of a subscription, part of the betting sub, 444.com slash plans. In the show notes, you can find all that information. So Sal, thanks again.

And continue to crush it. We will be back again, as always, two shows next week. We will do a short show, I'm guessing. We'll only have two games to break down on Wednesday, and we'll only have two games to break down on Thursday. We're going to do the prop show on Thursday next week, so keep a lookout for that. And again,

as always, for Connor, for Alex, I'm Ryan. Head over to propswap.com. Deposit some money. 444 is the promo code there. Check it out. Lots of cool stuff. New way to get into some bets, so we'll see you guys next time.