Move The Line - Prop Drop: Super Bowl Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: February 8, 2022

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, Connor, Ryan and Alex discuss their favorite Super Bowl player prop bets.  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Use Promo Code 4FOR4 on Prop Swap for a first-time deposit match up to $500 + a FREE Move the Line shirt (Minimum $5 deposit) 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3r2JF04  Prophet Exchange is a sports betting exchange where users set prices. Join the waitlist to secure a $200 deposit match. 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/35Ln416  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  __________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Super Bowl Prop Drop Intro 7:40 Best Super Bowl 56 Props 1:00:10 Viewer Props Q + A1:15:10 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 1:18:05 Super Bowl Prop Drop Outro 

Hello and welcome to Move Alive Prop Drop Show. Prop Drop presented by our sponsor PropSwap. Head over to PropSwap.com. Download the app today. And in our promo code, 444, when you make your first deposit, Prop Swap will match it up to $500. This is good stuff out here, Sal. This is our final Prop Drop show of the season.

Of the season. Important delineage of the season. We're back. We're going to run this bad boy back. We had too much fun not to do this again next season. Of the season. Important delineage of the season. We're back. We're going to run this bad boy back. We had too much fun not to do this again next season. Joining me as always, my two favorite fellow Prop D gens, DJ Decibel in the house.

Connor Allen. Connor, what's going on, buddy? Oh, man, not much. I'm just excited to be sitting next to the legend himself, you know, also known as b rabbit the king of the garden lil geppetto hey hey what's up fellas it is a pleasure an honor i have had just the the best time with you guys i'm so grateful to have been a part of this i am also very much looking forward to uh future seasons plural with you guys

and seeing where this thing goes love it we're just djing out here before we got started just betting on some crazy derivatives in the in the prop markets uh golf football blending it all together trying to teach these two youngins how to operate an app, which is, you know, really not something I thought that I would have to do in the year 2022. But here we are, you know, taught Connor how to use the app. He's just getting limited out here. You know, Connor's big swinging out here, cashing these 80 to 1 tickets. And now he can't get more than $40 on a bet because he's, you know, the fine folks over at DraftKings are, you know, they got, they got reports,

they got meetings, you know, they got earnings calls and Connor Allen's over here draining these guys and forcing their hands. So excited to unpack our Superbowl week. We have pushed this down the road as far as we can. It's, it's actually kind of fun because new things have popped up. So we're going to do it on Friday. New things have kind of come into the market where we can talk today. So we're just going to share a couple of props and then just share some of the things that

have caught our attention in the marketplace. Maybe not official plays per se. We haven't maybe dabbled on these yet, but just some interesting ways to get down and to make this as enjoyable of a watching experience as possible. I think it's also really smart to not overextend yourself on a day like this, on an event like this where we preach bankroll management all the time and to be really good and smart and get down on the best of the number and all these different things. Don't go blow it all on minus 110 heads or tails.

Don't put your fiancé in an uncomfortable position during a national anthem all those whoa whoa we want to advise against unless you have really good intel uh so we are uh which connor did right he had some good intel that day yeah i mean demi loovato became my first true love, you know, my second true love. I mean, I had some great intel. She went way under the anthem. All the alt-unders cashed. I mean, my fiance got a new pair of shoes.

I mean, it was a win-win scenario all around. You mean shoes? You mean shoes, Connor? I got literally bullied into buying her new shoes, prop stars. After I was at Noonan's house and was going nuts over Demi Lovato, like I had my timer out and everything was like cheering and going nuts over her, like speeding through that anthem, just like a straight up rocket ship just flew through it.

And, you know, after I won, you know, they're all like, Oh, how much money did you win? Blah, blah, blah. And then they're like, Oh, you got to buy Maggie something. Now she's sitting right there obviously so i bought her shoes during the game it does not even finish and i already knew that i was up money on the game so that's a very very sweet of you connor what do you think the odds are or the possibility that i could possibly audition or submit a tape to sing the national anthem next season

the odds of you submitting one i think is pretty high i mean i think you need to do that now or submit a tape to sing the national anthem next season. The odds of you submitting one, I think, is pretty high. I mean, I think you need to do that. Now we can send in a little mixtape from the show and, you know, tag all the NFL folk in it. The odds of you getting up there, I mean, is probably about the same as, you know, Lovie Smith having a winning season next year, is what I would say.

Oh, man, just the visuals. You know, all the pomp and circumstance, like the Super Bowl. Whatever, someone comes out and sings America the Beautiful, gets everyone riled up, and then, you know, they cut to Alex. Special performance from the garden. Oh, man. He doesn't even go. He's just at home. Simulcast from the garden. Oh, man. He doesn't even go. He's just at home.

Simulcast from the garden. Bear in the background. He moves the bear into the garden. It would be great. It's amazing. We'll have our own Super Bowl. The only way to do it, my friend, is the only way.

Connor, are we getting you back here? What are you doing? No. Apparently, Valentine's Day is back here? What are you doing? No. Apparently Valentine's Day is actually the busiest day of the year. It is a terrible, really, really busy day. And that also falls on the day after the Super Bowl.

Connor, stuck in the cornfields of Indiana. Disappointing. For Valentine's Day? For the Super Bowl. Yeah, and Valentineentine's where will you be uh watching the super bowl i don't know i think there's a bar next door called crazy horse it's been my local watering hole so you know i'm uh you're gonna go hang with the locals you know yeah set up shop there their food's actually really good so and they have like a bunch of

good whiskey they have like a whiskey book. Do you make any steaks there? They do, yeah. A little cowboy ribeye? Yeah. Imagine I'll probably get a nice steak. All we need to do is hit the national anthem again and I'll just be good. You'll be getting rounds for everybody.

All four people. At the Crazy Horse. Then retire to the old Hyatt. Is it walking distance? It is. Right literally across the street. You can throw a few back and then

stumble on over to room 313. Oh, man. I've got to get you out of there soon. It's sad. It's sad. It's bad. The lighting just gets more and more depressing every time. It's a little bit different. If I move the light like this, it makes it look even worse.

I'm in a trapped room. It does. I'm stuck in a cage. You're on like saw yeah there you go i can move back it's a little scary yeah all right my friends let's uh let's dig into this let's talk a little bit about uh well some of our favorite props here and then we can hopefully answer your questions if you are hanging out with us here on youtube uh hit us up in the chat let us know what are you looking at? What have you got down on?

Looks like there's some site-specific boosts that are going to be running for limited times all throughout the week. So we can talk about what's out there currently, lots of different stuff out there in the marketplace. But Connor, kick us off. What is your first bet here for the Super Bowl? So my first bet for the Super Bowl, I took Cam Akers under. I took it at 65 and a half. I'd play it probably down to like 63, which is where it's pretty widely available here. I mean, this comes down to a lot of different things with kind of this matchup and everything. So Sonny Michel, you know, actually out snapped Cam Akers in the last game, partly due to injury. But even in the fourth quarter when Cam Akers was back, you know,

they leaned on Michel a little bit more. And I think his, you know, his return is like a really – it's like a feel-good story. Like everyone's like, oh, my God, he's the fastest player ever to return from an Achilles injury. You know, like Cam Akers is a god. You know, there's always those priors too that like Cam Akers was, you know, destined to be, you know, the next Steven Jackson or whatever or whatever you know whatever great player that they wanted to label him um you know he's

averaged 2.8 yards per carry uh since his return he's gone under this number in every single playoff game so far um i think that beyond like matchup concerns the bangles run defense has been playing you know a little bit better as of late. I think that, you know, there's also workload concerns. Like really do they, with two weeks off to analyze their own personnel, like do they really think that Cam Akers gives them the best chance to win, you know, and to feed him the rock after he's just been like, I mean, legit bad. So I think that they're just not in a great spot here in general.

So I think that it's kind of tough for me to bank on the over there. I think the under is a good play. Even if he gets 15-inch carry, 16 carry, 17 carry, I think that there's still a good chance of him going under, which is, I think, pretty incredible to say the least. I like the under there. I'd probably play down to 60, probably 60. I like it too.

It's taking a lot of movement, I think pretty early. It fluctuated a little bit. But I'm with you. There's some different ways to look at the rushing markets and that's the Super Bowl, right? Like there are so many different ways. And I think that's probably maybe the best edge in Super Bowl betting is finding out maybe a better way to bet something that's very similar um so some of that work is you know there's just so many it's so much stuff out here so yeah i'm i'm with you on i think the story is great but there's a lot of uh a lot of unknowns there alex let you go next what is uh what's your first one uh for the week yeah my first one is uh the favorite prop I've come across so far. That is Joe Mixon under 93 and a half combined rushing and receiving yards.

This number is widely available. I first put it out when it was 95 and a half. It is now 93 and a half. I still think it has plenty of value at that number. Prior to the AFC Championship versus the chiefs uh week ago mixon had failed to eclipse four yards per carry and 65 rushing yards in a game since all the way back in week 12 versus the steelers he's also seeding passing down work to samajay p ryan who out targeted mixon in the afc championship game four to three He also turned one of those targets into the longest play from scrimmage

for the Bengals, a 41-yard touchdown reception. This is just a tough matchup on paper. Very stout Rams defense. They finished the regular season 6th in rushing DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. They were fantastic also last week versus the 49ers. Limited Eli Mitchell to just 20 rushing yards on 11 carries.

That was his lowest total of the entire season. Also held Debo to just 26 rushing yards. We've been averaging 45 yards on the ground over his previous 10 appearances. Yeah. Just this Rams defense for as good as their secondary and coverage unit is they are every bit as good up front as well. We know this Bengals offensive line is dismal, especially the interior of that line. I think the Rams defense is going to just wreak havoc, especially guys like Aaron Donald up front are just going to be in the

backfield. I think Mixon is going to just really struggle. This is an inflated number, in my opinion. I just think for him to go over this total, it's either going to just really struggle. This is an inflated number, in my opinion. I just think for him to go over this total, it's either going to take him breaking off a huge chunk play or just a significant uptick in usage, which just seems unlikely. Despite, you know, he's been more involved as a receiver we've seen lately, but he, like I mentioned previously, has been seeding a lot of routes to Samadji Pirine, which will factor into the next

prop that I like. But yeah, I think this is a great spot to fade Mixon. I'd probably play this one down to 90 or 91.5 combined rushing and receiving yards. Nice. I like that too. Some other ways to fade Mixon we'll get to when we get a little crazier later

in the show. I'm going to go with Cooper Cupp. I like Cooper Cupp over. It looks like the best number out there now is 105.5 at points bets. There's 106s out there. They're all pretty much similar juice-wise. No way Cooper Cupp's not an integral part of this game. He has gone over on his prop bets 15 out of 20 times, 16 out of 4,

you know, 16 and 4, depending on what your closing line was. Bengals have struggled pretty significantly against slot receivers all season long as well. They've allowed just over 70% completion percentage. Cooper Cup plays probably around 60 60 on average of his slot snaps per week so that's a pretty good matchup 8.6 yards per target on the slot here which is the basically bottom five in the league according to sports info solution so cooper cup uh is going to have a big day uh he is available now on draft kings at plus 100 to score a touchdown which is a boost which is insane to me that that's even a boosted score

because I didn't realize that he was minus 190 to score a touchdown, which is just insane. That's like Derrick Henry level almost. Benenis. Yeah. Yeah. Like Derrick Henry against Jacksonville. So, yeah, Cooper Cup is going to have a big day,

over 105.5 receiving yards. Feeling pretty good about that one. What do you got to say there, Alex? I love it as well. I was actually just going to point out that that boost was available. I believe it expires tonight at 9 p.m. as well. So I would definitely encourage everybody, if you do like that, I think it provides some great value to jump on that one quickly

because it will not be available for much longer. This gets into like a bigger picture topic. And we've had some of this discussion in our Discord this season. And I think it's a pretty good discussion specifically around these boosts and how the perception of the boost itself. And it's undeniable, right? The market is currently pre-boost minus 190. but i think an argument can be made that even at plus 100 it's boosted and it's boosted significantly that's a huge boost is that still a really good price for a wide receiver touchdown um maybe i mean cooper cup has obviously been a beast all season but it's it's it feels closer to where it should be to me versus like this insane value it's a value versus the market but is it actually a value in expected outcomes from

a percentage standpoint it feels feels crazy to me i feel like it's a slight value at the plus 100 number i mean just judging we're looking at usage that is unprecedented a four of like 12 to 15 targets i mean he is the entire offense. The way they utilize him is unlike I've seen any wide receiver, just some of the plays that they're calling. They're so creative, the way they're kind of lining him up and just using him in just very unconventional ways where you have three guys just ready to block in front of him,

catching passes at the line of scrimmage. His yak ability is really impressive. Just his ability to put his head down and just pick up tough yards. So, yeah, just the way he's utilized, in my opinion, gives him a higher floor when it comes to, frankly, touchdowns. So I do think it is a good value at plus 100, personally. Yeah, go ahead connor i mean yeah he's also i mean if we just assume it's whatever like a 50 you know plus 100 right you know again like 50 of the time he's scored touchdown for you to you know have positive expected value he does so far this season he

scored touchdown i think in his 14 of 20 games um so and you got to expect, you know, them to continue to feature him. You know, like, I think that he's, it's tough for me to say that I don't like it, but at the same time, am I really that excited about it? You know, like, um, I think you're right that it's, it's like massively boosted. Um, and undeniable. It's a huge boost. Yeah. And I, I mean, I'm not going to say, I, like, don't really bet that many touchdown props just because –

but, again, if you're looking for something fun to bet, like, I think that that's actually, like – I mean, this is the time to bet it. Like, and the Super Bowl is a lot of fun. So, I think this is, like – It's a $50 max bet as well. Is it? Okay.

I thought it wasn't. I thought it wasn't. No, it's a $50 max bet. So, it's not, you know. Oh, okay. Well, then max it and have a good day. I mean – Yeah, exactly.

It's just a fun little way to get a little extra value. And he has scored in every playoff game. I believe he's scored in six straight appearances as well, 16 regular season touchdowns. It's fun. He's going to get Nianto a very good chance. Yeah, I hope so. On his way to 130-something yards, it clears it comfortably,

and we don't have to worry about it, and we're good to go. But, yeah, everyone's saying little G's correct. $50 max bet until 9 p.m. Eastern. So hop in there. Yeah, he scored in eight of nine games. All that stuff is all very descriptive. It's all very descriptive. That all happens.

Yeah, but, again, to Connor's point, it's the Super Bowl. Let's have fun. Let it go. So, Connor, prop number two. all happens yeah but again to connor's point it's a super bowl let's have fun um let it go so um connor problem number two and mine uh also goes along with alex's i you know didn't realize that we had the exact same play but i'm here you know to tell you that i agree with everything alex said i like joe mixon under 65 and f rushing yards available at points bet right now the only thing i would like to add to what Alex said essentially was,

you know, I think that the Rams run defense has even tightened up more in the playoffs, like kind of looking at their last three games. Basically the last three games this season in the playoffs, the 49ers have 50 rushing yards on 19 carries, averaging 2.6 yards per carry. The Bucs had 51 yards on 14 carries, 3.6 yards per carry. And the Cardinals had 61 rushing yards on 18 carries, 3.38 yards per carry. As Alex mentioned, you know, they're a lead run defense. I mean, just top 10 in basically every defensive run defensive metric.

So now you're getting like this kind of matchup here. Cincy's offensive line is really not that good. So I think that, you know, it's just a really bad matchup for him. And not to mention, too, some of the research that I did for my Super Bowl article tends me to believe that I think the Bengals should start to skew a little bit pass heavy here. We kind of look at how the Rams defense has played this year. So they lead the league in the amount of zone coverage and they play the highest amount of two high shells in the league. So essentially they, you know, don't stack the box. They use their dominant front to kind of control the running game, but they almost have like deceptively light fronts. They kind of dare teams to run and are still efficient at stopping

the run. And so in those scenarios, like, you know, the Bengals cannot be tricked into running the ball. And if they are tricked into running the ball, they're probably going to lose. But if they go pass heavy or at least skew a little pass heavy, I'm not saying like, you know, 90-10 or any of that crap. You know what I'm talking about? Like maybe like 65-35.

Joe Burrow is going to have success. I mean, looking at that exact scenario against two high shells and zone defense, Joe Burrow ranks number one in the league, 70% completion rate, 89% catchable pass rate, 8.6 yards per attempt. I mean, just, yeah. Top. Yeah, so I think he's in a good spot. But the biggest question to me is, does Zach Taylor, like, let him do that?

Or do they have to kind of figure that out after they're down 10 points? And so I don't know the answer to that. I don't think anyone does. So I think that it could create some great live betting opportunities, though, that if they go down 10, like, I'm probably gonna be smashing some some bangles live bets i am very interested in uh first team to score and lose uh you can get the rams like just shy of five to one um for the ramps you're basically betting on the ramps to score first and the bangles to win so it's kind of an ulterior like a pre-game play on the live expectation of what connor's talking about if the rams jump out and's kind of an ulterior, like a pregame play on the live expectation of what Connor's talking about.

It's the Rams jump out and we kind of have the Bengals forced to do what they've done probably their best. And they've been forced to be in, in past heavy game scripts and lean on Joe Joe Burrow and basically take Zach Taylor in, you know, first down runs out off the table. Those are some interesting ways to attack it. So it's a good look. Alex, number two, buddy. Yeah, my next one is Samaj P. Ryan, over eight and a half receiving yards,

six targets over the last two weeks, out-targeted Mixon last week, four to three, had the biggest play of the game on either side of the ball as well. I mentioned he actually ran more routes last week than Mixon as well. Looking back at the course of the regular season, he's gone over this in 10 of 17 regular season games. I know CJ Uzama said he's going to play. I believe he's yet to practice. If he is out for this game, this could open up some additional targets underneath for P. Ryan. Even if he is active, I still think he's very likely to receive a minimum of two to three targets,

with the Begles likely trailing in this game. He kind of just laid out a few different scenarios where that happens. The Rams also ranked 24th in DVOA, two receiving running backs. This is the most important part of this play, in my opinion, is I believe that P. Ryan is going to be on the field a bunch in this game because he is simply better at pass protection compared to Joe Mixon, which is a big reason why Mixon has been seeding routes and seeding touches to P. Ryan. With how good this Rams pass rush is, I think they will need P. Ryan on the field

just to help protect Joe Burrow. So I do anticipate him getting that hurry up work getting that two minute drill work and yeah this rams uh defense is just getting after burrow i just think they're gonna have to have p ryan to help pass protect a bunch and just at eight and a half yards he just needs one or two targets for this or just one reception so i am biting and i like this prop quite a bit like it yeah he definitely you You definitely, you know, game script wise, especially last week came in there and handled more of that too. So yeah, he's got good, I think he's a decent back.

I think he's decent big playability and yeah, nothing wrong with that. Wrong with that one whatsoever. My last one is more kind of the narrative that we've been on so far this season is is looking at quarterback rushes. And from a mean-median projection, I think Joe Burrow at 10.5 yards is probably a pretty good number. But again, thinking about how this game could be played with the pressure we're anticipating the Rams getting,

because I don't think we're going to get a lot of Burrow design runs. It's not necessarily his space. But I'm taking Burrow over 10.5. I think there's still some 10.5s out there. 11.5 is still fine for me. I just think he's forced to scramble here a little bit and is an athletic guy still. Every game we're further removed from last year's knee injury. We saw five carries for 25 yards last week in a heavy drop-back scenario

against the Chiefs. I think we've got another heavy drop-back scenario one way or the other here this week. Going to get a lot of pressure, force his way to extend plays. Ten and a half, I think, is a pretty low threshold for him. So I like Burrow over ten and a half. It's still available out there. So that is it that's it those are

our official plays for now but we have a bunch that we want to talk about and hopefully you do too so continue to hang out with us fire off in the chat uh some plays that you are looking at there's a lot a lot has popped up today and uh some definitely interesting ways to get down and make this one uh fun here i want to tell you real quick before. Oh, go ahead. No, no, keep going. Tell everyone about Profit Exchange. Profit Exchange is a brand new sports betting exchange where it's coming soon in New Jersey, coming soon in Indiana.

Basically, anywhere that has Caesars, we're expecting it to come sooner than later. It is tied to the sports betting licenses in those States. Basically the users set the price. You can set the price on, on anything in, as far as spreads, totals, money lines. You're basically eliminating the juice,

basically getting things priced at plus 100 on both sides. Private exchange takes like 2% off of winners. So obviously very different than minus ones, minus 120s we're seeing oftentimes now at Sportsbook. Join the waiting list today, ProfitExchange.com. That is P-R-O-P-E-E-T, exchange.com. Again, hit it up in the show notes. You can get that link. Definitely want you to check that out. We're excited for it. I know I am. I'd be hoping maybe at that point Connor's still in Indiana and we can leverage some Profit Exchange while he's there because it's going to be a good way to get down on some stuff. Now you're going to say something. um yeah i said a few more like uh two more bets that i liked uh where uh this is a fun one uh that i guess i haven't double checked the price here but um depending on where you can get it at bangles first play to be a pass um this is at plus money um and i think it's still like a pretty good value

if you're able to even find it a minus 110 so I think it's a little bit of surprise because so last year um in the Super Bowl I I kind of found an edge with the Chiefs it was like they had like passed on first down or the first player of the game like 70 percent of the time something like that so I was like okay you know I'm gonna look into that this year for the Bengals just because I think the common you know theme is that everyone's like oh Zach Taylor's a coward like All he does is run the ball. They ran the ball a ton. But this is around, I think, on a bunch of sites prior.

If you do see a plus money or a minus 110, I think it's worth playing. So basically this year the Bengals have either passed or tried to pass, meaning like a drop back that resulted in a sack or like a scramble by Joe Burrow in 15 of their 19 games. So I thought that, I mean, that's a pretty significant edge. And I think that that means like, you know, you can kind of chalk some things up to like, oh, it's probably just randomness. It's probably just variance. But I mean, coaches script the first like 15 to 20 plays of their game. So if they're consistently passing first, you know, I think that that's, it might be just like a rhythm thing. It might just be like a, you know,

calm the nerves by completing an easy pass or make, you know, some kind of thing like that. I could also very well seeing them just like, be like, okay, we're just going to hand the ball off no matter what, just to kind of calm the crowd down. But, you know, I mean, it's a Superbowl. You got to kind of like go for it a little bit. And if they've been, if that's been their rhythm all year, like I don't see why they go away from that. So I think that they're in a good spot here and are able to, you know,

kind of, they're, they're able to pass the ball first. I mean, that's, that's probably the play here. So I, if you find even money, I mean, 15 of 19 games is pretty, pretty solid rate. That's a pretty solid rate. I thought that was going to be one of your official plays because I know you like that one. Yeah, I probably should put that as an official play. What category is that under?

Just game props? Yeah, I mean, they choose like all these games are just like all over the place. It's half the battle. It's finding the bets. Yeah, it was under game props and it was under play props. Yeah, here we go. It's on FDuel right here. So Pass the Time plus 104 still.

So you've got to go to Super Bowl on FanDuel, and then you scroll over to Game Props up top there, and you're able to kind of find it and scroll down to Play Props. So you don't actually click on the game itself for some reason. They're not all in the same place. But, yeah. Yeah, that's the struggle. As we learned before trying to bet golf before the show starts. You got to talk about that bet.

That's a good bet. Yeah, if people want it, Ryan, come on. This is a special, exclusive golf waste management open from Ryan Noonan, expert golf capper. He convinced me. It didn't take much convincing to place my first golf bet ever on air before we went on air. It was a shame we didn't have the cameras rolling

and you guys weren't a part of this experience. Connor and I struggled to find said bet. I ended up placing a different bet on a major championship, I believe, instead of the waste management open. I was trying to convince Ryan that I placed the correct bet. He was very insistent that it was not the correct bet. So I was able to cash out Without a penalty And did place the right bet So this is available to you on DraftKings

Connor might have to provide a tutorial On how to find it But without further ado, Ryan Here is a special golf bet From my guy, Ryan So Alex bet a winner for this week's event Which is what we're talking about He didn't get down on the Masters

But he did bet southern hills uh pga championship which is not the bet we're looking to make this week um but majors are out there already but he got down on uh i like justin thomas as far as plays at the top of the board this week so we get down to justin thomas to win but there is a bet out there that is uh just first round birdies versus Joe Mixon receptions. I thought you guys were kidding when you were talking about that. No, no, no, no. This is real. This is on DraftKings.

I showed you. I got limited. Oh, I didn't know this actual bet is on DraftKings. This actual bet is on DraftKings. So look at the scorecard. I sent the scorecard to you guys in the chat. Last year year first round justin thomas four birdies round two nine birdies round three seven birdies

round four wasn't great three birdies but mixing can still have two receptions here but again like nine birdies seven birdies firmly in play for jt here and of course that he rolls out of bed and finishes in the top 10 he leads the league in birdie or better or the tour in birdie or better better percentage he's been top five in birdie or better percentage every year he's been a pro so he is a birdie machine the same smash what category is this on there? Cross sports specials. Okay. And then you can scroll over to NFL slash golf. And then it's, I think like the fourth or fifth one, something like that.

Yeah. It's minus one 30. I've not looked at this, but I, I'm now going to have to get in here and see what else we can get down on some cross sports ones. Yeah. But like, like the Justin Thomas one quite a bit here. Where's cross sports located?

Scott Dobish found it in the chat. Darn it. That's my boy. I'll just have you guys tell me afterwards. I don't want to. Super Bowl. No, it's okay. I don't want to take up your time. No, it's okay. This is what we're doing.

Super Bowl. People are probably doing the same thing. I'm drafting the mobile app. Yeah, you click the top little bubble thing here that says Super Bowl LVI. And then you scroll over. I'm going to hide my bag up there. Okay, I got that. And then you scroll over there.'m going to hide my balance here. And then you scroll over there to – All sports specials.

Yep. And then you go to NFL – Even Tatum made threes versus the Rams total touchdowns. Wow. Alex's world is – Jarr Chase receiving yards against Trey Young jason tatum jalen brown combined points yep see this is the super bowl man we get we get really wonky here uh where is it on desktop i do not see it is it oh there's mma ones too

novelty props here's the n NFL golf one there we go John Ramberti's Jordan Spice Justin Thomas Berti's in round one just slight botch of of Spieth's name there Ram and Spice Ram and Spice

Will DiPetto spitting bars over there. That's all right. This is why we're doing it. This is a good value at minus 130, Ryan? I love it. JT. Birdie or better basically measures the percentage of time where on

a hole you get a birdie or better. Birdie or eagle. JT is constantly one of the best on tour. Top five player in the world. Probably wins this week. Yeah, the folks are struggling here too. We'll be rich if JT wins this tournament.

That's a bunch of birdies. Coming off of last week, had Tom Hoagie. 65-1. We've got to get in here. 65-1. We've got to get in our slack. If you're just watching the show for free, not subbing, you've got to get in here. 65 to 1. We've got to get in our slack. If you're just watching the show for free, not subbing, you've got to get in here. Look in the show notes, 444.com slash plans.

Betting is fire. Betting and golf is rocking. Or Bettsports Golf. Do that too. That's coming out soon. All right. What else? Let me see.

I've got a couple that I want to get your guys' thoughts on. This is, you know, parlaying overs. All right. What else? Let me see. I got a couple that I want to get your guys' thoughts on. This is, you know, parlaying overs. Our buddy, Mr. Underfull, Sam Hoppen, would not approve of this, I don't think. But there is a DraftKings special where Jamar Chase, Cooper Cup, Odell Beckham, T. Higgins, each over 49.5 receiving yards. So not a huge threshold. It's plus 160 on DraftKings. Who was it? Chase?

Big Higgins? Top two for Big Four. Yep. Chase O'Dell and Kup and Higgins, over 49.5, plus 160. I mean, that's a lot to sweat for, plus 160. But, I mean, it's probably going to happen. Cup hasn't been below 50 all season. Odell has been over 50 in three straight playoff games.

Three straights. Higgins has gone over 50 in 10 of his last 13. And Chase, he's only gone under once in like the last seven or eight weeks um other than the game like week 18 he barely played so that doesn't even really count technically he played like part of the first quarter to get over the rookie threshold and then you know pretty low so yeah again 50 just 50 yards all four of the big receivers need to get 50 yards, pretty low thresholds, plus money. So, again, we're having fun here in the Super Bowl. So I think that one's pretty interesting.

Another one on DraftKings that I think is interesting too is even money. Well, minus 110. Super Bowl winning margin over under 8.5. So, like, depending on how you feel about the spread, like if you think we got a close game eight and a half is on the interesting side of a key number if you are thinking this game is going to be fairly close um so it's out there in draft kings i was interested in what your guys thoughts were just kind of straightforward but also kind of like i think do you think we have a close game

or not it's kind of what this comes down to con Connor did an incredible write-up on the site it is free you should check that out um he's given us a little bit of that uh today in his analysis his prediction is within four points so this would be another nice way to uh basically take advantage and you would get a little bit of leeway on the line which is four four and a half depending on the book so thoughts on that Alex yeah I like that quite a bit I mean I spend very little time as far as sides and totals are concerned, but everything that I, you know, personally subscribe to, I believe this game is going to be competitive. And it's hard for me to imagine Joe Burrow playing as well as he is, you know, not this game being decided by more than a touchdown either way. So yeah, I would be

pretty surprised. I think at eight and a half. Yeah. I think that's a touchdown either way. So, yeah, I would be pretty surprised. I think at eight and a half, yeah, I think that's a pretty good number. I would definitely be inclined to take the under there. Yeah, I thought it was interesting. Anything else, Alex, that you have noted that you want to share that you think is – because I got a handful. I want to get your guys' take on it. I am interested in Tyler Boyd props.

I do think that he could have some uh value at his present numbers if cj uzama ends up being inactive i know that uzama has gone on record stating that you know would take his leg getting cut off for him to miss this game but uh you hear that kind of hyperbole going into the Super Bowl very often. And if he's not practicing, I do feel that it's obviously a significant injury, probably a high ankle sprain. I'm not sure how the injury has been diagnosed or classified, but yeah, it's just hard to imagine him playing, in my opinion. If he does play, it does seem like he's going to be less than 100%.

Boyd has kind of uh had a minimal impact so far throughout the playoffs I think he's kind of the forgotten man in that offense he's very very good slot receiver in my opinion and yeah if Uzama is not there to soak up a lot of those targets underneath in the middle of the field uh where there is a little bit of a cushion as far as the Rams defense is concerned as well that you give up some yards underneath so yeah I definitely think Boyd could end up being a guy that gets eight targets goes over 50 receiving yards and like I said has some value at his present numbers if Uzama does not end up playing or even if Uzama does play and is less than 100 percent so that is something

I'm going to keep a very close eye on yeah I like that I mean there's also a few other things too that the Bengals actually lead the league in short drop back rate it's like 70 something percent in terms of their drop backs there's like deep drop back play action they lead the league in like short drop back rate they also against what I talked about earlier with the Rams, playing a light box, zone defense, that two-eye shell, in those scenarios among the Bengals, when the Bengals

have played against that defense, I think it's like they've had 70 pass attempts or something against that defense. Boyd actually leads the team in targets with 16, Higgins at 14, Chase at 11. Very interesting. So very interesting. I like it. Yeah.

Worth a look for sure. I'm definitely, I'm waiting on that too. I think that there's some, some good, good Boyd lines out there that are pretty ripe. I mean, I know some people are a little bit scared of him matching up with Ramsey,

but at the same time, like because Ramsey has been playing some slot lately as well. But I mean, they play so much zone. I just don't think it matters that much. And, you know, all these guys move all over. So it's not just like – they're not just set. So I think that it's – you can't really look too much into that.

Yeah. Good takes there if they wait and see. What happens there from a news standpoint? Obviously it's the Super Bowl. You don't know what's going on. You're gonna get a shot to come back here i know obviously he's he looks like he's trending better than higby is at this point to play so um you know obviously he's gonna do everything he can to to get in for that one so uh one thing that i wanted to talk about that was going on it in detail on friday was ready to unpack this. And then over the weekend, I heard Warren

Sharpe talk about it. And then today I saw Adam Levitan tweet about it. So I think it's still a good idea. It's just not a new idea necessarily. When Warren Sharpe and Levitan are talking about it, then I feel like I was onto something, which I thought was interesting. It was a different way to approach the MVPvp market so the mvp market is similar to touchdown props is something that people have a lot of fun with they want to you know sprinkle on the mvp but and it is easier in the sense that it is a binary yes no market where you are saying is this person going to be the mvp versus an alternative which is leveraging same game parlays and thinking about what does it take for said player from a pure statistical output to get to MVP caliber. Obviously the threshold from a quarterback standpoint is a little bit lower because it typically is an MVP or quarterback

driven award. But for instance, when you look in the marketplace, we look at Matthew Stafford is my, or plus one 20 today, I saw on points bet to win the MVP. Um, but if you put together a little same game parlay where you include the Rams to win, uh, and then just do a couple of things where like Stafford over two and a half touchdown passes, we have to assume again, in this instance, he could very well throw two touchdown passes and still win the MVP. So again, you're bringing risk into play. But in this instance, we're going to drive it to five to one instead of plus 120. So Stafford over two and a half touchdown passes, Stafford over his yardage prop, which is like 280 and a half in most spots. And then Stafford over completions, attempts, whatever you want to do, you know, you can get

a same game parlay up until like the, a little bit over five to one, which is tripling your plus one, 20 odds of just, is he the MVP? So do we think there's going to be a scenario where he's throwing for 260 and two scores, right? Falling under his total yardage under on touchdowns, really kind of a middling performance and then wins the MVP. It can happen, but it seems unlikely to me. You would think that he would probably need to have a pretty good day. It gets a little bit more fun with receivers. Dalton, our boy Dalton Case and I were talking about this in our discord today.

You know, obviously the thresholds for receivers is a little bit cleaner. Like you don't have to have as many things to have happened. But again, it's harder naturally to win at the receiver position because it is such a driven award for quarterbacks. But if you want to look at like, you know, Cooper Cup is an interesting way to do it. The two guys on Cincinnati with Chase and T. Higgins. If you go Higgins, for instance, you go a longer shot off the board. He's out there at 60-1, 55-1 to win the MVP.

But if you just go Higgins scores twice, gets 125 yards or more, and the Bengals win, that's an 82-1 same-game parlay. There are not many scenarios where T. Higgins is the MVP without catching multiple touchdowns and going over 125 yards, right? Because it's harder. So, again, yes, you're bringing in variance, but you're getting kind of the reward of the bump from same-game parlay. So, again, just another way to sprinkle some action that is different than just the plain old MVP market,

I think is a worthwhile look. So I'm probably going to have a couple of those same game parlays on, you know, some of the top dogs versus taking shots at the, at the MVP market. So I'm going to build one for Samadji Piran. There you go. Oh my God.

I mean, that's going to be like 300 to one. I mean, Samadji Piran over like 20 go. Oh, my God. I mean, that's going to be like 300 to 1. I mean, Samadji Pirine over like 20 receiving yards. I mean, hey, Joe Mixon gets injured on the first play. You're cooking with gas. I mean, that's like a serious like, you know, two tutties. Yeah. Bangles, 17, 14 bangles.

17, 10 game. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Yeah. Samadji gets two receiving touchdowns. Six receptions, 89 yards, two tutties. I like it. Recovers an onside kick. Yeah.

I mean, you might be retiring. Special teams tackles. Special teams tackles, yeah. You might have to retire. Like, that's just like your career you've peaked. Yeah. That's it. I'm running back MVP through a same-game parlay leveraged.

Yeah, didn't even take him in the straight, Marky. You a same-game parlay leveraged. Yeah, didn't even take him in the straight market. You went same-game parlay to boost the odds. Your accounts might get flagged. You'll have enjoyed DraftKings for all of like four weeks, and you will be able to get down a whopping $0.35 on every single prop after that. Well, good things have happened if we get to that point, so I'll take it. That's true. That is true.

Let's see. Another that I had. I shared this first to score and lose. I thought that that was interesting. Bengals are plus 285. Rams plus 475. I think those are both interesting. Both teams to make 35-yard field goals.

Yes is plus 100 even odds we know money mac is hitting one so mac is attempted a field goal in every game this season he went over two back in week five against green bay but he's made at least one in 18 of 19 games he's made at least a 35 yarder in 16 of 18 including 10 straights matt gave very very very similar um 18 of 19 he went over one against baltimore week 17 his top 35 in 16 of 18 games and we know these coaches have been kind of tight at times this year to be a little conservative taking field goals. So both of them getting one over 35 yards is, it's pretty interesting to me for, for even money. So I thought that that was a good,

like that's on Caesars at plus a hundred. I like that quite a bit. Yeah. I like that too. Interesting. I made my first kicker prop last week, lifetime. And my first quarterback interception prop went to,0 on them, by the way, fellas.

So, yeah, happy to get involved in the mix with some of these more obscure props. Our local kicker expert, Sam Hoppin, has been just banging some overs. I mean, he loves nothing more than just hitting overs and kicker props. So, I mean, he's basically an expert, honestly, on overs and kicker props. So I think it's – He had a way. Yeah, yeah. He had a great play on McPherson.

You were able to get him a plus money over one and a half field goals, even though his total points is seven and a half with minus 145. So I think – Taking extra field goals. Yeah. A lot of extra points i mean yeah like they have to score like five touchdowns in one field goal for him like you know what i mean for him to hit the over and not hit two field goals so i think that that's kind of important too like nuna talked about like kind of finding different derivatives of the same prop because books price them differently yeah um even though it doesn't really make sense, but they do.

I don't know if they're just like, they like to have fun and like try and fool you. I think, you know, like they basically priced these, the ones that are easier to understand, like kind of like shittier, I think, or like, you know, so I don't know. I just think it's something that the book's trying to have fun with. So, but it's important to pay attention. Yep.

Agreed. Talked about team rushing yards um you know we're talking about with we had unders on both sides here and i think those are probably the right plays and there is on points bets um any player to rush for 100 plus yards no is minus 150 on points bet so a little juicy but i don't think any of us think we're getting to a hundred yard rusher right we feel pretty good that that the backfield with the rams is going to be probably not split but there's a pretty good chance that maybe we see a little bit more sony michelle again he came in with you know some of the injury issues with acres last game and p ryan has not

been a guy that's handled a ton of of carries he could still be the MVP based off of his prolific work in the special teams game and receiving game, as Alex astutely pointed out. But he's not necessarily a big carries guy. So minus 150, I typically don't love to get into that juice, but I feel like that's a pretty good look also in points bet. I like that, actually. I mean, the issue is if

one of these teams gets like way up and they just feed the ball the rock into one of these guys like 25 times you know that's like my only concern even then i think they fall under like both these they have such like tough matchups and or like aren't equipped team-wise to really get there so yeah uh yes is plus 120 if you were interested um so definitely not but yeah uh both teams to score 20 points is also even money on the yes side plus 100 um team total for the bangles 22 and a half team total for the rams 26 and a half i think if you have any interest in the Bengals, I think this is an interesting look. Again, to Connor's point, this is a way to play the Bengals as the underdog without necessarily taking the points,

laying the juice, minus 110. You're basically saying, I think the Bengals win in a game that's not 17-14 or 20-17 or something like that. So both teams to get to 20 is plus 100 on Fandle. So that was another fairly interesting look. Not too crazy, but yeah. I kind of like this game to go under. I don't know.

I do too. I mean, it got steamed right away. I got caught waiting because I thought maybe we'd get a bounce back. But I think it's probably the right number right now. I don't know if there's a ton of value, but I'd probably lean under. But I think there's a pretty close game to your point, even in your article, right? It's 24-20.

We're getting a fairly close game that goes under, but keeps the bowl teams getting to 20. Within the eight and a half number you know i think that's very much a good score so uh and good job your article is terrific so everyone should definitely check that on the site i appreciate you um i i think actually one one prop that i've not hit yet but i was curious on your guys takes any sack props you guys are interested in uh i'm interested i ran this last week unfortunately i didn't hit i'm running it back again considered to making an official play uh for this show uh but i'm definitely playing it

privately on the fence about if it's going to become an official play but that's aaron donald over four and a half combined tackles and assists uh prior to last week he had gone over that total, I believe, in eight games in a row. Yeah, I just think that this is a huge mismatch. Probably the biggest mismatch in this game is going to be the Rams defensive line versus specifically the interior of Cincinnati's offensive line. I just think Donald's going to recag. I know you asked about sacks, but kind of incorporate Sacks into that prop. So yeah, I think Aaron Donald

is going to have a massive impact on this game. Definitely make his presence felt. I'd like him to go over four and a half combined tackles and assists. Who's singing first? Halftime. Halftime. Who's singing first? I don't even know who the halftime show is. Oh my goodness. All right. Yeah, I don't know know who the halftime show is. Oh, my goodness.

All right. Yeah, I don't know yet. I'll wait until my intel comes in, and then we'll – Yeah. All right. So we got Mary J. Blige. I'm familiar with her. Snoop Dogg.

Very familiar with him. Dr. Dre. Very familiar with him. Eminem. Of course. And Kendrick Lamar. Wow, this is like actually a good halftime show. Yeah.

I mean, all the- I was hoping it would be some like cruddy, you know, like generic, like what's that guy's name? The little guy. It's tiny. There's so many things I want to say. He's a performer. I think he did a little –

Little Geppetto? Not Little Geppetto. He did the halftime show like a couple – he's like a pop singer. He's very tiny. Justin Timberlake? No. You're not going to say Prince, are you? No, no, no.

He's like a newer guy. Okay, because Prince passed away. No, he's not. I mean, I guess he's kind of a legend now, but... Bruno Mars. That's what I was expecting, some Bruno Mars type act, but that's actually an awesome

halftime show. The boomers are going to be mad online. I mean, everyone... Oh, yeah. The boomers are going to be pissed. It's rap music. I mean, this is, you know, like... gonna be pissed because it's rap music i mean this is you know like anti-rap music that's true it is good it is a good how can you not like some dr dre and

snoop dogg i mean i would say ask anyone over the age of 50 if they like snoop dogg and they'll probably give you a hard no but maybe 55 depends on what part of america 55 yeah yeah you know snoop came is you came we're looking at late 80s, early 90s. Early 90s, yeah. Us olds, we don't mind Snoop. Snoop was our high school years.

What a career for this guy. He's been incredible. Still going. Dr. Dre, that's an all-time classic album. It's not out yet. And again, we'll wait for the intel. But National Anthem, we touched on earlier. So Offshore hung a 95.5 second number for this.

I think her last name is Guyton. I don't know her first name. She's a country singer. 95 and a half was the number they hung offshore. She sang one national anthem that is currently on YouTube at the Capitol Music event or something in Washington, D.C., clocked in at a crisp 84. Didn't seem like she rushed it, per se, but a pretty big difference between 84 and a 95.5 number. Now, again, the Super Bowl, a little bit bigger of an audience, obviously.

You can hold on to a note here or there. Interested to see what happens. Again, this will all be when we start to get a little info hopefully in the next 48 hours uh maybe in time for our wednesday show but uh again i know that's a market we want to want to hit i'm interested to see what happens stateside again last year was up and then pulled because the guy thought he was being a hero to everyone and then just crushed the market so um Connor, any thoughts? Yeah, I would say that it's tougher because the Superbowl, like 90 seconds is already a really low line.

I mean, most of the time it's in like, like all above two minutes. I mean, that's usually the line is above two minutes of national anthem. When my girl Demi sang it, it opened at like 203, closed around like 158, 159. And I think she hit 155, 154, if I remember correctly. But yeah, I mean, I would just say that those last 30 seconds are just, I mean. Wild card. Yeah. Like you have no idea what notes are going to hit.

So I like to wait. I think the rehearsal is actually on Thursday, unfortunately. So, you know, I think we're probably not going to get in until around that, unfortunately. Are these decks capped? You can only like put a couple hundred bucks on them? I mean, I have a bunch of offshores that I'll just max, just put everything on it. So like, you know, like whatever.

Do you bet the National Anthem heavily? I mean, I put 10X what I do on the Super bowl on the national anthem really yeah i mean that's i mean that's what we're talking about earlier but he joking are you pulling my no i'm being 100 i mean basically what happened is that i i have a friend who has people who like are at the rehearsal at the national anthem and it's going to be this year as well i mean yeah they know people are at the rehearsals every year so they like time it and then they send you the info and then you bet it and but what happened last year is that some guy like was standing outside the stadium and recorded it and timed it and then tweeted it out and so collapsed the market so that everyone was like okay well you know we can't bet this anymore but most books didn't even post it i don't even think a lot of like domestics are going to post

i think it's going to be mostly offshores and like locals so you might not be able to bet on draftings unfortunately or any of those shops if you are uh the market is just going to be like get hit really hard because i'm not going to i'm not the only guy with this intel anymore. Other people are too. Those markets move quick. We'll see. I didn't know this was your claim to fame. You should have seen me at Newton's house. I had already won back all of the

money that I had bet on the Super Bowl. No, no, no. Information markets are the best markets. I couldn't agree more. I'm not disputing that. NFL draft, NHL awards, NBA draft. I know about your famous NBA draft. Easily all the three of my

biggest, most bet events. Not even close. Yeah. What did we get last year? We got, again, another bet that we couldn't bet, but we were tipped on that the Pringles commercial would happen before the mayonnaise commercial.

Was that a line that was available in Offsports? Yeah, BetOnline had it, and a bunch of other places had it. Wow. Yeah, information. But the National Anthem was funny because everyone's settling in, you get your food, you get your seats, where are you going to sit, because everyone's settling in. You get your food.

You get your seats where you're going to sit. And everyone's mingling. The game's about to start. And it just always speaks up on you. Connor's sweating his balls off. And his girlfriend at the time, now fiance, wants to know why must you watch this so intently? Are you a big Demi Lovato fan?

Is there something I need to know about? And he's like, he's just, you know, MFing up and down, like locked in. Can you send me a numerical amount on how much you made after the show? Yeah, sure. But he was in a great mood. It didn't matter what happened in the game. That's awesome. I lost like a lot of my bets during the game.

Chiefs Niners two years ago. That's so funny. It didn't matter. He was in the barn at that point. Okay, I forgot to talk about this. I do have a sack prop, though, that I wouldn't get back on track. I haven't taken it yet, but the Bengals this year, the offensive line, we know is just really, really bad.

I believe they're 31st in adjusted sack rate allowed, and they played against six teams who rank top 10 in adjusted sack rate. So those games, week one versus Minnesota, they allowed five sacks. Week two versus Chicago, they allowed five sacks. Week three and 12 versus Pittsburgh, Joe Burrow only had 18 and 24 pass attempts. So in those games, he had zero and two sacks. But he only threw the ball – he only tried to throw the ball like, I mean, 25, 26 times in a game, like super low volume.

One of those games Burrow – or excuse me, Mixon had like 35 rushing attempts. Exactly. Week 14 against San Francisco, five sacks allowed. Week – divisional round versus Tennessee, nine sacks. And even then last week against the chiefs, they allowed, I think 13 pressures. He was getting pressured a ton.

I know it didn't translate to sacks, but they were definitely disruptive. I mean, the line, I think it just is pretty well adjusted for this. It's at three and a half with plus money on the over. I think it plus money. It's kind of where the stab.

I think it's interesting. Aaron Donald could have three sacks alone. I mean, yeah. My biggest question, though, is do the Bengals have to throw the ball or do they try and throw the ball? Because even if they wait until they're down 10, getting three sacks in the second half is not really super easy. So that's kind of my concern.

I don't know if that's even a live betting thing, if they're going to offer that live in-game, but that is something that I will definitely be looking at too if the Bengals fall behind. And if they're ahead, then I'm glad I didn't bet it in the first place because Joe Burrow is probably very likely going to throw the ball like 30 times or less. Yeah.

Yeah, again, it's taken a good amount of action already. But, yeah, now that it's a plus number, I think it's taking a good amount of action already but yeah now that it's a plus number i think it's not a bad it's not a bad look for sure let's get to some of the ones you guys have uh shared with us any thoughts here before we found somehow found a way to go an hour um on one game with not really with two props each and not a whole lot to say so uh the important question chill wants to know proppy you got that Lil G single for us tonight. The people want Lil Geppetto. They want it in action. What do you got?

You guys will get Lil Geppetto. I am sorry to do this to you. It's going to be next season, though. I do promise you that there will be some Lil Geppetto featured on the Prop Drop show. Move the line. It will be here, but we're going to, we're going to tease it. Going to make you guys wait a full season, but you will hear it.

String it up. It's going to be worth the wait people. It's going to be worth the wait. We touched on this DK boost as well. Cooper cup anytime touchdown at the plus a hundred again. He's been scoring touchdowns it's boosted significantly um don't hate it get it in because it is uh expiring literally right now so hopefully you got down right now if you wanted it yeah right now uh dalton also talking about bangles under 95 and a half combined rushing yards uh yeah because that's a again we talked about p ryan to all the plays we have exactly

yeah p ryan's play is more in the passing game than than anything else um she wants to know about p ryan over one and a half receptions at plus 100 on dk alex do you also like that oh i don't mind that i prefer the yards i think under 10 just needs one reception for that but yeah i don't mind i do think he's gonna end up with three targets very likely uh catching two passes so yeah have plus money i think it's decent brian asking about p ryan points bet over receiving yards at 14 is that a thing i mean i don't see that that would be, yeah. Because you're looking at low risk. That's the wheelhouse.

Yeah. Yeah, I love that. Oh, I think it's rushing yards. There you go. That's why. It's rushing yards. He's low risk, high reward. Yeah.

But, I mean, receiving yards. Oh, no, receiving yards, 14. There you go. What does that pay? Well, it's like it's points betting. It's a piece of one. Yeah. So it's like if you bet over 14, every yard under 14 that he gets,

you lose 14 times – you lose 1X your money that you risk. Every yard over 14, you win 1X your money. I love that. If you put $10 down on the over and he ends up with like 30 receiving yards, you win 16X your money, so plus $1,600. Love that. Love that. And it's pretty pretty it's low risk

i mean that's like these are the type of thing that we're definitely looking for yes because in worst case you lose i mean you get he has no catches you lose like 14 times your money i mean you're not risking that much anyway so it's not the end of the world but best case i mean if he breaks a screen for 50 yards i mean last week yeah print bam yeah yeah those teens the high teens high teens low 20s kind of sweet spots sweet spots i think for for yards for yardage no matter really what it is on points but um yeah you know quarterback rushing we got into some fun ones i mean that's a nice i don't think there's a play on the super bowl board for that per se. But, yeah, yardage. Because, again, like if you do something with Cooper Cup or Jamar Chase,

like you are – and they go down in the first quarter with like a sprained ankle. You are holding the bag. You're like 100X loss. Yeah, you're in trouble. Yeah. I mean, I've been on the wrong side of that too. So I learned this somewhat the hard way. Yeah.

And again, like they have to get through such a number to get to anything over. It's like, you know, you're not really going to get the reward. Whereas the low risk, high ceiling numbers are massive. So yeah. Another point about here, Sony, Michelle rushing her, it's 24. I mean, what if acres is just like, they just like, fuck, say, screw it and go with Michelle? Totally possible. You're talking about like 40, 50x upside as like a pretty median outcome.

Yeah. Good luck. So I'm going to hit – I'm actually going to bet both of those. So I don't know who shouted that out, but – Brian. Brian. Shout out, Brian. I appreciate you because those are both –

I wish I had access to points bet. Soon enough. I mean, you know,ggars can't be choosers though You get draft kings now It's better than your lottery bullshit That they gave you before Boy DJ Wee's always up in discord So you're saying my man

Mixon under three and a half receptions is decent yeah you like uh you like mixin from the three and a half receptions because p ryan's gonna be the superbowl mvp and uh pass protection though in all honesty i do think that they're gonna need p ryan on the field to help protect burrow yeah and we know we like the justin thomas birdies over the mix in receptions um scott wants to know about odell catches versus patrick cantley birdies i'm guessing i'll have to dig into that and some of the cross sports stuff too um i love it this is super bowl is the best shout out scott uh interesting prop on caesars says candors uh either starting quarterback to finish with negative rushing yards no minus 145 i stacy thinks burl will be fined and you get a safety

net for stafford uh zero would be a win any thoughts on that yeah i mean stafford's had some zeros for sure he's not a not a big rushing guy per se. I don't know that I like the minus 145 on it though. What do you guys think? Yeah, I think that's a bit juiced for me. Yeah, I mean my issue too is that I think Stafford's pretty likely to scramble

for like two to three yards. My issue is that if they win I would actually surprise how fast he was when he scrambled last week. Sorry. No, no, no. I agree. He is sneaky athletic because – He was running fast.

I was like, man, why doesn't this guy scramble more? Yeah. No, I mean he's – I think it's the whole thing that Noonan talked about where like, you know, quarterbacks do or die in the playoffs are just, you know, like this is their time. I mean,

this is willing to extend the play for six 40. What you said? Yes. You think, or he does. I bet you he does do no shot for six. I bet you he runs a sub four, six.

I bet you that he runs four, six, four, six, nine. I bet you he does. I bet you he runs a sub 4.6. I bet you that he runs a – Sub 4.6? Under 4.6, no. Under 4.6, no. Under 4.7. Under 4.7. Oh, it's changing. Sorry, I misspoke. I meant to say under – I said I bet you he's under 4.7, like 4.6, 9, and down.

Okay. I bet that he runs like a 4.9 at this point in his career. Dude, you should watch him on that scramble. Okay, he ran a 4.81 at the combine. I mean, you think he's gotten faster now at age like 33 or whatever? How old is he, 35? Dude, he was running for

his life. I think he just got to get like a good pass rush shot or something or have like Chris Jones chasing him. Cause that was under four, seven. A few years ago, I went to the Superbowl in Indy when it was in, in Connor's fine state of, of Indiana went to the,

you know, festivities and went heads up. Cause they had a little spot. I ran, I was one of the friends, they had a little spot where they measure you for your 40, put it up there, clock. Everyone's up. We're in line. There's like 10-year-olds

with their parents. Everyone's in line. There's spots for eight people. We waved everyone off. No, we're doing this heads up. We get everyone off. I was 35 at the time. 35. I clocked in at uh 479 so i felt good about that that was still sub five now connor is adamant that he is still again he's significantly younger than

i am though he doesn't look like he is um that he is still comfortably probably what would you say connor you're you're you're four seven still four six yeah i mean yeah i think what's your best time you ever caught i mean i i ran like a four or five like a pepsi combine um what like uh and yeah during my my playing days wow this is pre-injury so you're in a four or five. I mean, yeah, it was as fast as you. You're almost as fast as Matt Stafford. That's fast as you Conrad. It's break it to you. I put that effort in the favor.

Either way. Dagle was also in on this. I would, if he is listening, which I'm sure he's not, I would dust both him and Newton's old asses, you know, so bad.

I've never seen Connor more confident in anything in his life when we had this discussion. That is impressive that he ran a four-five. I'll give you that, Conor. I tip my hat to you. I was once not chubby and doing a podcast in a high place. So it's like – This is a good question. This is a good question.

It's gotten dark. On the European model? What are we talking about here? I don't know what that means. Like the metric system? Are you talking about meters or yards? I mean, they're kind of close. I was happy to be at my age at the time and still be sub five.

So I'm probably not sub five anymore with COVID, which stole my weekend basketball games. But, you know, I'll still beat Connor's ass after a few more years of podcasting for Connor and munchkins and coffee culottes, whatever he's drinking over there. It's wedding season, bro. I'm cutting right now.

Are you cutting? Are you sick? You just don't want to eat the food in boonington uh logan wants to be like the bangles money line logan i'm gonna have some bangles money line i just i don't know i keep going back and forth in this game there are a lot of things that make me think the rams are just to play i think they are kind of a better team i think any model point like any modeling system is going to tell you that the Rams are the play. They have significantly more experience.

There's just all of it. I just, I don't know. Mangles would be fun. Yeah, I agree. This is a great follow-up question. If I had a hundred dollars to bet,

where am I putting all that on? We should all go around and say real quick. That's a good one. Justin Thomas to win the trash open. Aaron Wise at 100 to 1. Call yourself a day. Can we call that the trash open? It's the trash open.

Wastepair has been open. First, Dalton, speak up because Dalton is going to be there. This is like one of the better. Is the trash open? Waste management open. Dalton, speak up because Dalton's going to be there. This is like one of the best sporting events to go to. It gets crazy. Waste management open. It's unlike any other golf tournament where it sometimes can be a little stuffy. It's like there's a lot going on at the waste management especially on the working in waste management

it's a good tournament so uh hundred dollars yeah i don't know um what do you think alex besides obviously p ryan went to win the mvp uh hundred dollar bet what do you get i i mean i hate to say it but i go i fade my guy or not my guy but i fade joe mixon i think his numbers are inflated i think there's still value on his rushing and his combo prop under uh that would be where i would go with my hundred bucks connor what do you think um so i had uh so i lost my thousand dollar000 free bet initially on Caesars, which sucked because I was – Oh, now he's free betting too. Well, I forgot like an idiot that we live in the most corrupt state in America and that mobile registration is not a thing.

So I tried registering my beautiful fiancee mobily. And when we go to deposit, they're like, Hey, you actually can't even be fully registered because you're not East St. Louis where you have to drive to register because Pritzker wants to line the pockets of his buddies at Rivers. So God, it's the worst thing in the world and is's so dumb i mean imagine making people drive to a casino during a pandemic i mean this is like literally the like months after covid hit he's like yep gotta register in person and everyone was like still freaking out about everything march in during covid like when like march of 2020 we had rivers for like a week and then it was like in-person registration it's just that's terrible it's insane yeah yeah i told my

wife the other day i'm like hey i gotta get you she's got draft kings i'm like i gotta get you fanduel fanduel's got a great offer this week it's cash it's five dollar free bets for 280 dollars in cash it's not even 280 dollars in free bets and then i was like oh wait no we have to drive down to st louis because that's where the racetrack is for the actual fan duel so yeah we don't have mobile registration coming back up uh until well i think middle of march early march it's coming back so yes anyways long story short i put my thousand dollar free bet because it expires in a week so i was freaking freaking out and I panicked. So I just put it all on Cam Akers under. So.

Oh, this week? I mean, yeah, it expired within seven days. So, you know. Go Cam Akers under. Yeah. But yeah, this is what I'm doing for the Super Bowl. Mobile registration here is for my wife. So I will be registering her for everything while I'm in Indiana.

Congrats, Maggie. Good play. $100 on anything. I kind of like the both teams to make a 35-plus yard field goal at plus 100. There's just been a lot of field goal attempts from both these teams in the playoffs consistently all season long. I kind of laid out that number. You've seen this in like 16 of 18, 18 of 19 in different instances. So, yeah, there's going to be some field goals here.

So it kind of leads to our play where we think the under is on the board. So, yeah, I think that that's an interesting look. So good question. Good question. Uh, all right. Uh, Logan, yeah, Logan hitting this up. Um, I'm going to be buying a house soon too, Logan. So you never know, you know, find yourself some, uh, some customers as well as, uh, some prop bets. So hopefully everyone's it's a win-win for everyone. All right, you guys, that's it. We've got to get Sal with his last one, his player prop tool bet of the week,

bet of the Super Bowl. We didn't have one last week for Sal. Missed it. Think of anything else you've got for the people. Sal, hit us. What is your prop tool bit of the week? All right. Nope.

Alex doesn't like it. Sorry, Tolis. Joe Burrow. Passing yards over 273 and a half. Our projection is a tick over 300. Connor, any thoughts on Burrow in this spot? If I felt comfortable that he was going to pass at like a 70% rate, I think it would be the best play on the board.

But I'm not, so I can't take this in good faith. I kind of agree. Yeah, I think Connor nailed it. It's just been so frustrating to watch them run on first down. We're guaranteed like a 65-35 pass-to-run ratio, fully on board. I think it would be a great spot. But just Zach Taylor just being so conservative is maddening. So hard for me to uh back it but i do hopefully with two weeks to prepare and so much data you know supporting um them being successful when they

opt to go past heavy uh yeah what more uh information do you need so yeah this is a uh one of the many tools we have on the site uh again this is part of our betting subscription at four for four we have this same tool for the nba uh we are going to have this tool for college basketball for the tournament prop tool for college hoops um connor demanded it and we are delivering um excited to turn the lights on for our ncaa stuff here soon for conference tournaments and then into march madness but we are going to do what we do and typically focus on prop bets versus uh sides in total so we will have some guys with some thoughts uh mike randall leading that uh doing a terrific job driving that train um but then the

prop tool hopefully can support some of that as well. So we have this as one of the many tools in our toolbox here at 444. Again, betting sub will take you through now, through the end of next Super Bowl, through next year's Waste Management Open. All the golf, all of the NCAA, all the NBA, NASCAR started last week on the sites. We have hockey bets coming into our Discord all the time.

We got some MMA chatter going on. We are constantly bringing you stuff to make the betting sub the best community in the space. We are proud of it and really, really appreciative of all of you who have hung out with us this season hung out with us in the discord hung out with us here whether it's on uh youtube channel twitter asking questions uh making this really one of our favorite hours of the week uh and really getting to do this with you guys every week so we're going to miss it but we will be back uh move the line will continue in the off season we're going going to really – we talk about information markets. I think it is the best way to leverage the space to beat the books.

So we will be here for draft season. We're going to do a couple shows. We're going to continue to do this in the offseason, maybe with different sports. Connor and I will be more frequent even. We'll definitely have to bring Alex on when we're doing some futures, starting to get into the NFL streets. We're going to continue to tap on Alex as much as he will

lend us his big old brain, his big beautiful mane, and his garden to continue to make this the best show that it can be. So, gentlemen, anything for the folks as we say goodbye? I just appreciate everybody hanging with us. I think it's

been a really fun season. So grateful for this platform. Thankful to both you guys. Special shout out to Sal as well. Our phenomenal producer behind the scenes does an incredible job. Shout out to Luis. The whole 444 family is incredible. And yeah, I'm just happy to be a part of it.

I'm looking forward to next year. Love it. Yep. Couldn't, couldn't agree more. It's been, it's been a pleasure doing it with you guys and that's been awesome. You know,

kind of seeing how the show has grown and hanging out with the listeners every week. You know, it's been a told Nunu before it's, you know, one of my favorite times of the week and you know, one of my favorite shows to do every week, just good casual conversation about props,

you know, nothing much better than that yep so shout out to sal behind the scenes sal's been fantastic um all season long editing every piece of written betting content that's gone up on the site we'll continue to do so for the foreseeable future uh crushing social crushing everything here for us producing the show and really taking us up a notch this year so big big shout out to Sal. Thank you very much. Connor and I will be back on Wednesday in our typical game by game preview with our breakdown of the game joined by a trio of degenerates.

It's going to go off the rails. Evan Silva, John Daigle, Joey Kanish. It will be football talk. It'll be an hour and a half or two hours of nonsense uh less professional than i think even this was today and uh you know this got off the rails uh as it typically does so hang out with us 48 hours from now again uh move the line youtube subscribe

rate review podcast form as well i will continue to uh fall on your feet occasionally so for little jepetto for dj decibel i'm ryan we'll see everyone soon