Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 1 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: September 11, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus introducing third co-host Alex Selesnick. In this week's episode, the trio discusses their top Week 1 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Edition presented by WinBets. New users, download the WinBet app today. Use promo code 444. Get a risk-free $1,000 bet at win. Take advantage of all that free money out there. We always want to scoop up the free offers that the books are offering us. We are excited for our week one prop show. Again, don't forget to hit subscribe wherever you're listening to this, whether it is here on YouTube or if you're listening in podcast form, definitely appreciate

all that. It's going to help you make sure you don't miss any episodes. This is our Friday prop show. This is new to you. We also do a Wednesday night game by game breakdown. We're getting into a little bit more granular football stuff, looking at sides and totals, projecting how the market's going to play out over the course of the week. But today, Friday, is typically going to be the day when props get really heavy and they start to drop more often. Now, we're dealing with week one here, so they started to come out a little early. We've been ahead of the game. We have lots of written content discussing some of our early prop numbers that we like over at 444. So definitely go check that out.

Joining me, as always, Connor Allen. What's going on, buddy? Not too much. Stoked for this show and really excited to have Propstars on over here. And I think that he is a great player prop betting guy and has really made a huge name for himself in the space. And we're pumped to have him on every week here by going forward, talk about some of our favorite bets. So, Alex, how are you doing, man? I'm awesome, Connor. Yeah, I appreciate being here, guys.

I'm super excited as well. Week one is essentially like my Super Bowl week as far as props are concerned. So, yeah, I'm ready to get into it. Yeah, I'm really excited about this. Again, our goal every Friday is to be in this window when things start to get real heavy before the lines move a lot, right? Before we're paying an extra 50 cents a juice, before we're buying an extra six, seven yards on a receiving yards prop, for instance. We're trying to get them for you as soon as possible. So these markets move pretty quick and we want to help you beat them. I want to make sure that if you have any questions, there are any props specific that are jumping out to you that

you would love our input on. We would love for you to shoot us a message here in the chat. We can get around to that towards the tail end too. Also, again, want to remind you, you need to take advantage of these tools, guys. We have some really sick tools, props to, no pun intended, Sam Hoppin made some really great tools. Our prop explorer tool basically allows

you to select a prop and get an understanding of how frequently that prop hits over the last couple of years. And then obviously just pulling in John Paulson's projections in our player prop tool allows you to shop books. You bet right off of there, take your right to the bet. Just incredible stuff. Really, really excited about that. Again, go over to 444.com slash plans and find that out. All right, Connor, let's get it started. First bet, what do we like here? All right, so I'm going to go with Elijah Moore over 3.5 receptions, which is minus 120.

You can find that at William Hill right now. I like that a lot. I know that plenty of people have also hit Corey Davis But I think Moore is in a great spot here We have him projected for 55.7 receiving yards 4.2 receptions And prior to his minor training camp injury

The reports about Moore were just insanely good The B reports were talking about How he was making play after play Literally every single day in training camp prior to his injury. So now I think with Jamison Crowder out, it's going to be he and Corey Davis dominating targets in a game that we both like to go over. So I think we're going to see a ton of points in this one,

a ton of different scoring opportunities. So, yeah, I'm big on the over for Elijah Moore, and I also don't mind his over in the receiving yards as well if you can't find the receptions. Like it. Like the game environment. We've talked about that one a lot. We had some good leans on our Wednesday show with John Daigle

talking about how we think that game total is too low. So I think that that's a nice play, a good call to start. I'm going to start with Alvin Kamara. I think his receiving yards prop is way too soft, 46.5 receiving yards and minus 114 on FanDuel. Outside of the, hopefully we can forget, Taysom Hill era, this is something that Kamara did in all but one game last year. We had the Traquan Smith news today.

Again, just decimated weapons going on in New Orleans. I think there's going to be some negative game script that's going to continue to force them into more passing heavy situations. And Kamara is really the lone assets offensively on that team. I think we would probably see a nice week, you know, an early start of the season for, for Marquez Calloway, but you know, Jair Alexander could give him a handful. I think Kamara is prominently involved.

We have him closer to 70 receiving yards, and we have him for about six and a half receptions. So I feel pretty confident of him going over 46 and a half, and I think we're not really paying too much juice at minus 114. So that is one of my favorites. Alex, welcome to the show. Kick us off. Give us your first bet.

Yeah, so Ryan, i am sticking in the saints backfield i'm going tony jones jr over 21 and a half rushing yards i found it at minus 120 on draft kings um look he looked incredible in the preseason he had a just a shade under nine yard per carry average on 12 touches um played so well the saints cut latavius murray who was actually coming off a career high in yards per carry um saints just seem to have a ton of confidence in faith and jones murray was averaging just under 10 touches per game last season i could see jones taking on a similar role i also think they want to protect kamara who is coming off i think around a thousand touches over the past four season um even if jones just absorbs around like 80% of Latavius' touches,

that still gets him to around eight carries per game. The Saints are also without Michael Thomas. I saw just before we went on air that Traquan Smith landed on IR, so they have a very unproven group of wide receivers. Obviously, James Winston playing quarterback. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see them lean on the running backs a little bit more. As far as the matchup's concerned, the Pack Packers rush defense was middle of the pack last year Green Bay being only a three and a half point favorite the game projects to be close and

competitive and yeah I love this prop love it good in-depth analysis to feel really good about that obviously nice emerging role I think there's the books are a little bit delayed on on really reacting to what that role looks like. So good start. Connor, what is next? Yeah, so I'm actually going to go with an under over here. So I'm going to take Jack Doyle under two and a half receptions. You can find this at minus 130 right now at FanDuel. We even projected for less than one reception at 0.9 receptions.

He went under this number 62% of the time last season. The Colts also went on record this week saying that they may need Doyle to be blocking more with Eric Fisher out with an Achilles injury. And the Colts also drafted pass-catching tight end Kylan Granson, who's expected to play a big role off the bat. So you have Mo Alley-Cox, you have Jack Doyle, Kylan Granson. For him to get over three receptions I think requires a lot. And then in this game script as well, I do expect the Colts largely run heavy just out of necessity due to carson wentz coming back from

injury getting essentially no practice time but the first team after his covid sin as well so yeah i'm on the under there for sure thank you like that call a lot um yeah a lot of things i like in that game i'll wait for some more props to come. Next one for me is taking an over on Patrick Mahomes' rushing yards, actually. We have him projected for 20. The line is 12.5. We know, again, Mahomes, when he's healthy, can extend plays with his legs and isn't afraid to rush for a first down here and there. 12.5 is a very attainable number.

If you look over at our prop stat explorer you can get a value of about 15 on this prop and he's hit it two-thirds of the time i was only a handful of times really twice all of last year that he did not top this number at 12 and a half so if you're really good about that especially considering that you i know there's some improvements along the offensive line for the chiefs maybe some continuity issues as they kind of work their way through the start of the season but i expect a really nice pass rush for the browns those little things too could help flush him out of the pocket and again we only really need him to to tuck and carry probably two times to top this number so feel good about that and again another situation we're really not paying

a ton of juice actually minus 105 uh mgm is a really great number so i like that one quite a bit uh alex what's next yeah so next i've got michael pitman over 47 and a half receiving yards uh minus 115 on draftings uh yeah i love michael pitman he is one of my real like breakout candidates coming into this season i just thought he really looked phenomenal week one of the playoffs um yeah ty hilton's on injured reserve and set to miss the first three games. I expect Pittman to just step in right away to a large target share. Colts have a very unproven and banged up group of wide receivers behind Pittman Jr. J.J. Nelson's on IR. Paris Campbell and Zach Paschal are expected to join Pittman in three wide receiver sets.

Get to play the Seahawks. Their pass defense last year was just abysmal. I think they ranked 30th out of 32 teams in yards allowed. Yeah, Pittman just had a real coming out party in the playoffs. We saw just a glimpse of his potential. Five catches for 90 yards. He just was a man amongst boys. Some real yak ability.

I think him and Carson Wentz are going to click right away. He just can go up and get the ball. Game has a 52-point total, so I expect both offenses to move the ball. Colts will throw the ball some. So, yeah, I love Michael Pittman this weekend. Michael Pittman is my love language, man. That's it. That's all I need.

I love your fantasy, too, is what I've been trying to get them every draft. Right here. Someone wants to just say it real soft. And we're good. We're instantly friends. I love Pittman. I've been waiting for that number. I saw that you had it on the sheet.

And I was mad and happy at the same time because I thought it's a great number. So I'll definitely be tailing that for sure. Connor, where do you got next? Last one. All right. So my last want to be tailing that for sure. Connor, what do you got next? Last one. All right. So my last one is probably one of my favorites here and something that we talked about Rondale more over two and a half receptions. And I mean, you know, this got steamed up quickly. So, you know, when we originally wrote it on the sheet,

it was at minus one 30. Now we're looking at minus one 50. I still think it's too short. This should be a three and a half or higher. This is just a guy that we saw in the preseason is schemed three to four targets, you know, like just right off the bat, like a lot of short intermediate targets here. So I think that he's gonna play a big role like right off the bat. And then in a game against his Tennessee secondary, which figures to be like a bottom five,

bottom 10 unit, this game total is a 52, one of the highest of the week. So it's gonna be a back and forth affair. And Rondell Moore is a player that profiles as someone that could have been a you know even higher draft pick and he had a more successful college career down the road really came on as a freshman and then struggled as the offense struggled but you know he profiles as a guy who can you know with that yard after catch ability and being able to make plays in space which i think is a perfect fit in this type of offense um so i'm i get it's a rookie. I get that it's his first time. But two and a half receptions to me seems ridiculous. I think he sees five, six targets easily and racks up four to five receptions. And if you don't want to lay the juice on the minus 150, I also like the

over 31 and a half receiving yards on Rondell Moore as well. You're muted. Uh-oh. uh-oh uh-oh uh-oh there you go we're back passing me i pulled the connor yeah no we talked we talked a lot about that game on wednesday night and we just kind of love that game environment there's so many so many reasons to to be in on that and in on Rondé Moore. Last one for me, Mike Davis, over 44 and a half rushing yards. It is minus 111 at MGM. Philadelphia's run defense is pretty middle of the pack. I'm not a team that I necessarily want to avoid. I really like the game environment, though, there. I'm worried about really the performances of both defenses. I think there could be some pace on both sides.

I'm really bullish on Arthur Smith and what he brings to an offense. And there's really nothing behind Davis right now. Really, the way the cutdowns really went for him, the quadrioles left, it's basically they added Wayne Gallman, who's just kind of you know getting used to the team i think there's a really clear path to a really strong workload similar to what we saw last year with davis when he was in carolina and mccaffrey went out i just think that there are a nice opportunity for him and again our number is

uh stronger on that we like him let me see what our uh our number is for rushing yards um we have him uh 56 and a half so over 44 and a half i feel good about again he did this 64 of the time last year and again there's just there's nothing going on behind him so i'm pretty bullish about the uh that game environment in general any piece i can get so alex wrap it up what is your last one yeah so the last one is my favorite prop of the week so far. It's a favorite prop I've come across. It's Raheem Mostert. Under 16.5 carries.

It's presently at minus 130 on Caesars. I called this a few days ago. I found it at 17.5. He had to move down to 16.5, where I still think it has plenty of value. Mostert did not eclipse his total even once last season in eight games. He's only received 18 18 carries one time in his five-year career he has been held under 47 of 48 games that is correct i triple checked that um he's simply just never been a workhorse back he's shown

durability concerns throughout his career it's hard for me to imagine a range of outcomes where the 49ers coaching staff hands him his essentially his career high It's hard for me to imagine a range of outcomes where the 49ers coaching staff hands him his essentially his career high and carries week one versus the hopeless lions. I also think Trey Sermon's also going to be heavily involved with the game plan. 49ers are the biggest favorite of the weekend. I think they're going to be up likely double digits in the second half.

I think Trey Sermon gets heavily involved at that point, and we see a big dose of him. And, yeah, I think this prop's incredible. Yeah. I wrote it up on our site yesterday. It's one of my favorites too. Same thing. Has never topped it,

and they're not going to start just wasting bullets on the Lions with Mostert. They know his injury history. They have four backs that can handle the workload. They're not going to need to do it. So, yeah, seems like a great one and even worth paying a little bit of juice on that. So, love it. I want to give you a little taste of our player prop tool here.

And our producer, Sal, is going to give us a little bit of a tidbit. He's going to pick his player prop tool of the week, one that he likes and wants to get our opinion on so we can kind of talk about it. And then you can also get a little bit of the vibe with the player prop tool and how that all works. So, flying blind here. We've got to get a feel for what

Mattie Ice. Mattie Ice. Okay. So, Matt Ryan under 292.5 yards, getting plus odds, plus 105 at MGM. Our projection has him closer to 272. So we're pretty significantly under on this number, just talking about this game environment. Initial thoughts, Connor.

I know that we are really bullish on anything that has to do with kyle pitts um which feels like it doesn't correlate well with this um so you kick us off and then we'll get alex's take yeah i mean i i understand that maybe our projection is lower on this but this game is scary like i think that this this both of these teams defenses are not good and this uh falcons offense i think has the capability to really turn on the Jets here. But again, from a raw projection standpoint, from a yes, no, and getting plus 105 odds over there at MGM, I mean, the tool is probably right here. Although for me, it's something that I'm a little scared of

because I know that both of these, at least the Atlanta offense specifically and their defense just kind of have explosive tendencies in terms of how good they can be and how bad the Atlanta defense can be. So I think this is a scary game for me that I think we've talked about liking the over a little bit. And so I'm not personally betting it, but I think that you could definitely make a case to do it as the tool of them. Alex, initial impressions on Matt Ryan here. Yeah, so I actually have to disagree with Connor a little bit. I actually think the Eagles defensive unit is going to improve this year. I really like what they did in the offseason. They added Steven Nelson, a cornerback from previously played on Pittsburgh. Prior to that, he was on Kansas City. I'm pretty sure he's graded as a top 30 quarter

corner on PFF for at least the last three to four seasons. They also added Anthony Harris, safety from the Vikings, who at one point he led the NFL in receptions two seasons ago and was also graded out as a top corner. They also still have Darius Slay on the roster, who's been a great corner for a long time. I could see the Eagles defensive unit being sneaky this year, and I think they're going to be tough. So yeah, I would definitely lean under on this prop personally as well so this kind of fits right when i think about the process of how we're coming to this too i know it's going to be obviously adjusted for what we think the game environment is going to go and you know game

scripts and things like that but matt ryan was a somewhat of a unicorn in our projections this season he was one of the only quarterbacks that we had a fairly strong lean on the under for his season-long prop. We have a lot of overs as far as quarterback goes. So the fact that Ryan just kind of extrapolating that into the first game of the season is popping as an under is not super surprising. So I think you both make good points. It's an avoid for me.

Following the tool blindly is going to tell you that this is a clear-cut winner here so i think it'd be interesting sal if we try to capture this so we can touch base on it last year to get a sense of you know are you smarter than the tool um because uh you know i think that's a good way to get a grasp for this too and just before we take this down too this just gets you a sense of what the player prop tool is um at the very top, too, you can see you can get a betting subscription for 444. Basically, if you're paying full price, $179. Still legit.

Think that that is untouched in the marketplace. You get literally everything on the site. All the stuff. I have another quick tidbit, if I could have one. Yeah. Looking at Ryan's splits without julio in the lineup i know they obviously added kyle pitts i'm super high on him i think he's going to be tremendous but without julio um ryan struggled i know his yardage numbers were way down and i'm just not expecting

pits to step in and you know all of a sudden um replicate you know the sort of impact that julio had so yeah i also think that further kind of bolsters the under here. Yeah, good point. Good point for sure. Yeah, so you can pay the full $179 or if you can get prize picks, you're in a state and you need a new prize picks account, you deposit $35 in your prize picks account, you can get a betting sub for free.

It's just an insane deal. So basically you can get our full sub for $35 if you just deposit a price pick. So go over to 444.com slash plans, find out more about that. Again, you can just select your states depending on where you live. You can pick the book, look for any specific stat that you want to target. You can get really granular like we did here looking at Atlanta. So we filtered by that you can filter by player you can adjust as well and kind of create create your own prop essentially if you're looking at offshores some things that we don't have here in the states you know different create your own stuff i think that

that's really cool too so you can use a slider to do that so i'm really excited about it sal thanks for sharing that again don't forget to subscribe we We will be back on Wednesday with our game by game breakdown for week two. So great job, Alex, in your debut. Really excited to have you again. Don't forget to find Alex on Twitter at PropStars with a Z instead of the S. Connor Allen at Connor Allen NFL. And I'm there as well at Ryan Noonan. So for Connor and Alex, I'm Ryan. We'll see you next week.