Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 12 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: November 27, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, Connor was traveling, so it's just Ryan and Alex discussing their top Week 12 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET Get 4for4's  Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 12 Prop Drop Intro 3:55 Alex Prop No. 1 6:38 Ryan Prop No. 1 11:35 Alex Prop No. 2 14:50 Ryan Prop No. 2 18:12 Alex Prop No. 3 20:49 Ryan Prop No. 3 24:02 Alex Prop No. 4 27:03 Ryan Prop No. 4 30:52 Prop Betting Cards Recap 34:05 Viewer Props Q + A 1:02:42 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 1:06:20 Week 12 Prop Drop Outro

yeah hello and welcome to move the line prop drop show hoodies up edition prop drop presented by win bets don't forget to download the win bet app today enter our promo code four for four receive a risk-free thousand dollar bets i am ryan noonan joined by just one of my favorite prop d gens this week uh alex prop stars what's going on buddy what's up ryan we've got the uh two-man band show tonight you're gonna be holding down the drums and doing lead vocals i'll be providing as much support as possible. Shout out to Connor. Couldn't make it tonight, but I miss you, buddy, Connor, and hope he's back with us next week. Absolutely. Connor traveling, as we

know this time of year, it can be challenging for folks. He has one bet in. We'll throw that out to the folks a little bit later today, but traveling and and make it hard for him to get in do the sufficient amount of work that he requires for himself he wants to be able to you know we like community wins i know this is a big piece for alex too you know it's part of why alex has really been so successful in this game is that he takes care of his people no out we want winners for ourselves it's great we're not here to fund a bunch of losers but like, we feels really good. Right. When you, like, you throw out a play and you know,

you had a hundred people backing it and winning with you. So again, Connor feels the same way as do I. So he's not here, but again, if you can, it's a great opportunity to plug what we got going on. Black Friday deal in the space is not uncommon. We have an incredible deal right now at 444. We have slashed all of our subscriptions. You can get a betting sub for $24. Take you to the end of February. So that's going to get you all the rest of the NFL season. $24. We're talking a quarter of a unit, right? Or a half a unit, whatever your unit size is. $24, not a lot.

It's going to take you through the end of the NFL season. It's going to get you NBA, which is starting in about a month. We're starting right around Christmas time for NBA. We're actually going to have a PropStars article at 4 for 4 for the NBA season. So I mean, these folks love, right? We want, we want the property cash property is going to have NBA cash for us. That is going to be included in the subscription again, $24 that gets you everything else on our site. So it's going to get you golf, which starts back up from a betting standpoint early in January that gets you DFS through the end of the year.

That gets you everything. So we're working on it. Eventually, it's going to be able to flip, and you'll have a year schedule. That will, again, unfortunately, only take you to the end of February. So you want to continue reading the Prop E NBA article. We'll have to re-up come March. But again, that's a great $24 is a massive, massive deal. So 444.com slash plans you can find

the link in our show notes to take advantage of that again move the line here's a two show per week piece this is again prop show uh connor and i bring in some folks from around the industry on wednesdays to go game by game uh getting into a little bit more sides and totals so uh we're gonna do it as normal even though we we don't have Connor's stuff, we're going to go back and forth with Alex and I, giving you some of our plays. Alex and I are aligned on a few this week, which is fantastic. We feel really good about that.

And then, again, your participation is really our favorite part of the show, my favorite part of the week out of all my pieces of content. I absolutely love doing this show because we get to chat with you guys, and that is really what keeps the lights on here. And it really motivates us every week to show up with our best because we want to help give you guys winners. So Alex, I'm actually going to kick it off with you first. I hope that's okay, Producer Sal. We'll go with Alex first. I feel like I've been talking too much. Alex, what's your first bet? Yeah. Hello, Ryan. So yeah, my first bet is Jonathan Taylor over two and a half receptions.

Yeah, Taylor has had at least three receptions in six of the last eight games. Taylor has been absolutely phenomenal, as we all probably know. He ranks second in NFL Next Generation's success attempt metric, second in PFF breakaway percentage, fifth in elusive rating, ninth in yards per route run. He is just a big play waiting to happen in every sense of the world. The Colts are going to look to get the ball into his hands as much as possible. I expect them to do that through the passing game as well. The Bucs have been pretty vulnerable to receiving running backs as well.

They've given up 71 receptions to the position in 10 games. It's an average of 7.1 receptions per game. That's third most of the NFL to the position. I also like this prop. It offers some safety in the event the Bucs force the Colts to possibly abandon their run or just potentially shut down the Colts running game. I'm not necessarily expecting that, but I do foresee that as a potential, you know, range of outcome.

Yeah. Carson Wentz also just loves targeting his running backs in the passing game. We've seen Marlon Mack inactive since the trade deadline passed. Naheem Hines' role has shrunk as well. They're keeping Jonathan Taylor on the field as much as possible. Makes perfect sense. I expect him to be involved as a check down option and some screen passes against an aggressive Bucs defense as well. Love this prop.

Jonathan Taylor over two and a half receptions. I saw this pretty low juice as well. It was at minus 118 the last I checked on FanDuel. Yeah, that's what's surprising me about it alex is i i would think that this when they would come out would be one of those ones that would start to get some steam because they're increasingly looking for ways to get in the ball and knowing that tampa bay is a really stout rush defense they're gonna have to get creative and um you know yeah heinz will be involved a little bit more than you know in this game scenario we would think but like two and a half is a really low bar.

I kind of like that too. The yards are such a bugaboo that we've run into a few times this year where he's getting some of the touches, he's getting some of the looks, he's running the routes, but the yards threshold can be so hit and miss because your range in a mean-median projection way with receiving yardage for running backs. There's just so much variance in it. So two and a half on the reception side, I think, again,

even if he gets stood up, is a pretty nice number. So, yeah, nice. Not a lot of juice. I like it. This is one of two, my first two. So I'll give you a little behind the scenes. We have a show sheet that we share for this very reason. So that way we don't come prepared with a thought and have to realize that someone else also has that play. So unfortunately for Alex in this scenario, as the host, kind of

the ruler of the sheets, I turned the sheet on this week, fired off a couple of bets. Alex is ready to go. He wasn't in there much later than I was, but I had thrown two in, and Alex wanted those two. So this is a group play, which I feel really good about. And when Alex and I let him give his thoughts on it after I go, Javante Williams, over 48 and a half rushing yards, minus 114 on FanDuel. I feel like there's a little bit of a speculative lean to this, right? Because there's not a lot in there that you would feel like this is just a broken

number per se, but obviously the matchup off the top is great. Chargers are terrible rushing defensively. They are dead last in run D DVOA. They are dead last in rushing success rate allowed. We know that Williams is an incredible talent and we also have the rookie coming out of a buy. We know this works for quarterbacks. This works for running backs as well. We just feel like there could be a shift where he starts to take a little bit more of a lean. But if you look back at what happened last, last time we saw the Broncos play, after about three quarters, Melvinordon and williams were evenly split from a snap share standpoint and that game flipped against philadelphia when gordon fumbled and dairy slave picked it up and ran it back for a touchdown after that point williams handled 79 of the backfield

snaps um which is massive right for that's all we need for this guy we need 60 right 60 65 percent um so if there's a scenario here where he even again we probably don't see 79 to 20 split but even if he has a 60 40 split on Melvin Gordon in this matchup in a game that I really like the Broncos to be honest to control and have some success running the ball I took the Broncos plus three uh in the market earlier in the week. I absolutely love this number for Williams. He is an incredible talent. He, I think, leads all running backs in missed tackles force per attempt. He just is, that's just like a, one of the skills that actually you can predict for running back success is forcing missed tackles. So I'm buying Javante Williams. Prop Stars is buying Javante Williams. What do you have to add to that, my friend?

Yeah, I absolutely love this play, Ryan. Just to piggyback on some of the points you brought up, yeah, I just think this is a perfect spot for him given the Chargers are the biggest run funnel in the league. Yeah, Williams has been absolutely just the epitome of an explosive runner. He ranks sixth in success attempt rate, number one in breakaway percentage, which is incredible. You're talking about Jonathan Taylor, who ranks second. He's the running back to an elusive rating.

He's just been absolutely phenomenal. This guy has earned more touches in this offense. He is playing as well as any running back in football. He had a 57% snap rate in week 10, which is a season high. I expect his role to continue to grow. I mean, he has earned it. Melvin Gordon hasn't been particularly bad, but yeah, Williams has played that well. His ceiling needs to get unlocked here for this Broncos offense to take the next step, in my opinion. I think he's going to handle 65 to 70 percent of the snaps especially a week or two off of the bye week. I mean what do you have a bye week for if it's not

to get this guy more involved in this offense. Yeah every single metric is just phenomenal. I absolutely love this prop as well hence why I'm making this an official play of mine. So yeah absolutely love it. Love it. Let me see just to make sure. Cause I had looked just a little bit ago. Okay. So we're moved up from 48 and a half, 50 and a half on points bet. I'm seeing, I'm seeing 51 now on FanDuel still a play.

You agree? Absolutely. Yeah. I'm comfortable. I think playing this up to like 53, 54 and a half. Yeah, I agree.

And I think if you, depending on when you're listening to this and maybe if you miss it and we start to climb here, which is very possible with how things typically work when Alex gives out a play, this kind of goes away. I think a number that hasn't emerged, there's not a market for it yet. His longest rush market. I was going to be really nice. I was literally about to tell people the same exact thing, Ryan.

If you don't have access to this number or it comes in at 54, 55 at that point, I've been waiting for that number all day as well. Yeah. It hasn't come out yet. I would a hundred percent pivot to that. If you see that under 15 and a half, 16 and a half, I even think it's playable. So yeah, he is going to break off big plays versus this Chargers defense that Ryan mentioned is just, you know, 32nd and a rush DVOA, an absolute rush funnel. So yeah, perfect matchup for one of the league's best young players. Love it. Yeah. I think 16 and a half is probably where we see it.

And that's absolutely fire away confidently. All right, my friend, number two. Yeah. Number two is Jamar Chase over 64 and a half receiving yards. I have been staring at this prop since it opened. It was one of the first props to come out, I think, around 24 to 36 hours ago. We saw it open at 67.5. I've been considering it as a play there. Then when it came down to 64.5, I just had to bite at this number. Yeah, as we know, some of the raw stuff. He's averaging 87 receiving yards per game.

He's also coming off of three relatively down games by his standard still had 28 targets though, over the past three games, the Steelers ranked 26 and passing DVOA. So they're a friendly matchup. The combination of poor coverage and a lack of pressure, which the Steelers have not really been able to put on opponents is the type of recipe, in my opinion, that should result in one of these Jamar Chase spike weeks. Yeah, he is a true outside deep threat as well. He has a 15.3 ADOT, average depth of target.

What is really interesting about Chase is that despite a very deep ADOT, he has a massive target rate and target share that you don't see commonly linked with receivers. Typically, if I have really deep a dots, they're not getting double digit targets. Every game chase is one of those rare exceptions. Yeah, 45% air yard share. That's the highest in the NFL. Yeah, like I mentioned, these guys with a dots as deep as chase are not targeted as frequently as he is.

This has all the makings of one of those spike performances, in my opinion. I love catching a stud coming off of a couple down games as well. Yeah, I really like Jamar Chase. I think he's worth a shot at over 64 and a half yards. Yeah, I love it. Again, like you said, the way he's used is incredible and helps in a massive way in this. We don't see that, like you said, many guys, like even Devontae Adams because of the way he's used

as a relatively, and not a low ADOT, but like kind of what happened last year when they decided that Tyreek Hill was going to go from five to six targets to like nine to 10 targets. And it's like, well, damn, you're using this guy in that kind of way. Like this is, that's crazy. And it that kind of way. Like this is that's crazy. And it's kind of why he pops in the big way.

Josh Hermsmeyer over at ETR has a by low air yards model. I believe Jamar Chase is the cover boy and number one in the air yards model this week. So there is a lot of potential to be had in Jamar Chase in this matchup where I don't think Joe Hayden is playing for Pittsburgh still. So that also helps. I know too, Ryan, we were often asked this and you brought this up in the past. I think I've looked at it. Is it points bet that offers the big potential for, yeah, if he has a massive game, this would be one of those spots where one of the ranges of outcomes for Jamar Chase, because of the stuff that Ryan and I mentioned. He has potential to have 150 or 150 plus yard receiving games. Yeah, this would be one of those spots I'd look into a points bet scenario as well for him. Love it. Yeah, definitely take a look at that.

And if you don't, the other cool thing about points bet is that if there's a bet on the board somewhere else or a bet that you want, you can actually message them and they will get back to you and give you a line and a price on it so that's amazing that's pretty cool too so definitely worth checking out uh again another one of my bets that is a shared bet here with alex we are both on christian mccaffrey over 48 and a half receiving yards this is minus 114 on fan duel this is another one of those plays but again this was available an hour ago I stopped and I ate dinner I'm sure it's not maybe not anymore I would still take this up into the low 50s depending on when you're listening just to give you a sense

but again he was eased back into that alpha roll back in week 10 only saw 59% of the snaps but last week was very different played on 90% of the week 11 snaps he ran a route on 90% of the snaps, but last week was very different. Played on 90% of the week, 11 snaps. He ran a route on 90% of the drop backs. In those two games since he's been back, 17 catches on 18 targets, averaging 63 yards per game, which is exactly what we have projected for him here in this spot. So we're feeling very comfortable here in the upper 40s, low 50s for him. Really outside of the game in Houston when he got injured, he is top 54 yards in every game this season. So

bet this pretty confidently. Again, coin flip game, so I don't feel like we're going to have any scenario where game script gets out of hand and Carolina is not going to be dropping back and passing. He is essentially their wide receiver one, which is wild considering that they do have a ton of talent at the receiver position. Someone like DJ Moore is an incredible, incredible skilled player. But the usage when McCaffrey is on the field is really unparalleled. We don't have to worry.

Again, what we saw last week, 90% snap share and routes run. We don't have to worry about Chuba Hubbard or anything like that coming in and cucking him. This is going to be the Christian McCaffrey show again. Alex, back me up. Yeah, absolutely. Agree with everything you said. Love this prop as well. I was waiting for it to drop all day.

I know some other very sharp people are also on this, and it's for good reason. Yeah, McCaffrey, we've seen him back in that every snap role like ryan mentioned uh 90 of snaps in week 11 handled 91 of the backfield attempts uh ryan mentioned this this is just phenomenal stuff he ran around on 90 of the drop backs he is functionally serving as the panthers you know alpha wide receiver one or wide receiver two at worst in my opinion i mean i think the targets suggest that he is the wide receiver one even over dj moore uh yeah in terms of uh yeah yards per route run he is their wide receiver one uh yeah uh 2.98 yards per route run uh just the guy is absolute phenomenally such a versatile weapon out of the backfield uh we're seeing the targets everything

so yeah i love this prop i as soon as i saw in the 40s it was just like a mad dash to this unfortunately we had to wait to the show i'm sure we would have both gotten this out earlier but yeah i'm comfortable playing this into the low 50s which i'm anticipating it's going to be if it's not now it will be shortly so yeah absolutely love this prop obviously it's making an official play as well. Yeah, I love it. Let me see if there's any update on. Again, low 50s is absolutely fine. 52, there's still 48 and a half at Fandle. Love it.

Yeah, that's all day. Yeah, you're painted anywhere between 48 and a half and 52 and a half as we record here on Friday night. So, yeah, again, 52 and a half at the top is still a play for me if you are listening late. So fire away confidently. Alex, your third bet is a nice pairing with what your previous bet was. There's a little bit of a correlation there too.

Also want to remind you too, if you're listening and hanging out with us, this is the time to fire off some questions in the chat for us too, or the halfway point. But Alex, your third bet, my friend. Yeah, we love answering questions. So we will get to all your questions tonight as well uh the more the merrier so please fire away with those questions yeah that brings me to my third play like ryan mentioned this does correlate uh with the jamar chase over had to sneak one on under in

here uh shout out to our guy connor we know he he loves the unders. This one's for you, buddy. It's Tyler Boyd under four and a half receptions. I have given this out actually earlier today, but this number is still available. So yeah, I saw this as low as minus 110 on MGM, which I think is more than playable. Yeah, this four and a half reception line, in my opinion, is an overreaction to last week's target share and volume that Boyd just hasn't been receiving consistently throughout this season as the third option in the passing game behind two pretty dominant alpha wide receiver ones. Yeah, he is in trouble if this offense ends up being low volume variety, which we have seen at times with the Cincinnati Bengals. Yeah, 7.2, a dot 1.47 yards per route run. That is in line with his underlying volume. Not very good. He needs a high volume passing in order to eclipse this.

He has failed to catch five passes in six of 10 games this season. I mentioned there are lots of mouths to feed on Cincinnati's offense. I would not surprise me whatsoever either if the Bengals look to lean on Joe Mixon again this week. We saw last week he had 30 rushing attempts. We've seen the Bengals kind of seesaw between a high-volume passing attack and a rushing offense as well. So, yeah, I think there are just a lot of ways for this under to hit. Yeah, I also think it should have probably been three and a half four and a half is an overreaction in my opinion so yeah i'll take that under all day yeah nice call there's been just really clear delineation of how these receivers are used when they're all three on

the field and when t higgins is out there like you mentioned like boyd's usage is just a little different so yeah nice nice number good price there fits really well with uh with your jamar chase play and t higgins also has been subject to – like he's performing below expectations. A lot of the metrics really shine very favorably on how he's playing. I think he's in line for some positive regression. Also seeing Chase coming off of some bad games, it's just going to really surprise me not to see either of these guys, likely both of them featured in the passing attack as well.

Good call, buddy. My next one is a over on Debo Samuel, 66 and a half receiving yards available at minus 115 on DraftKings still. And you look outside of last week, which is kind of a weird game because they blew the doors off of the Jags early and they had running back issues with Elisha Mitchell. They really just used Debo as a running back and even like he only caught one ball and it was out of the backfield as a running back basically. That game was like 17 zip early. I completely skewed really how the usage has been used.

But outside of that, he is top this number in six and nine spots this season. Only the Packers and Cardinals, both teams that are top five in explosive pass rate allowed, have held Debo below 93 yards on the season. So this is kind of another one of those points bet scenarios. Debo doesn't mess around with the mid-60s. When he goes off, we're up into the hundreds often. So this is a really, really nice spot. Vikings are one of the softest landing spots for wide receiver ones on the season.

They are allowing 83.8 yards per game to a team's wide receiver one. That is the second highest rate in the league. We have a game here with a 50-point total that's approaching. We got a field goal spread. So basically anticipating a back and forth matchup that lends itself really well to elite production at the receiver position. I like this game in a lot of ways. I took a team total over on the Vikings. Like I expect points to be had here. We're not going to get a scenario where the Niners run away and hide and, you know, use Debo again as

a running back. He is going to be involved as a pass catcher in a mismatch against a really bad viking secondary so debo comfortably over 66 and a half i think it's widely available i don't think it's moved very much this afternoon so i like that quite a bit yeah i like that too ryan like you said this game has pretty much every single recipe you look for in a potential track meet going to be a lot of offense uh yeah this is a very good overcentric game debo is you know been serving as a 49ers engine uh in addition to the raw numbers the advanced stuff he is one of the best players in football this season he's actually just been phenomenal he's so versatile it wouldn't surprise me to see combination props come out for a wide

receiver right uh yeah but the guy is absolutely. I like this prop a lot as well. Such a stud. Yeah. Amazing that you can just be like, all right, this is what my team needs me to do today. I'm just going to be the dude that carries the ball a bunch of times. And just chunk over and over and over again. Just seamlessly become one of the best running backs in football.

And just mind-blowing. Stud. As a Patriots fan, knowing that the Patriots took Nikhil Harry and left D.O. Samuel and D.K. Metcalf on the board is a very painful, painful reminder. Terry McLaurin, a bunch of them. It's rough.

I'm in the same boat, Ryan, as an Eagles fan, having half of Justin Jefferson for Jalen Rager. The year prior, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside for D.K. Metcalf. Yeah, both guys drafted. Justin Jefferson drafted right after Rager, and then D.K. Metcalf won a couple picks after J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. I feel your pain, buddy. Yeah, it's rough, my friend.

All right, bring us on, number four. Yeah, number four, Mike Williams, over 50.5 receiving yards. Yeah, I was encouraged by last week's 97-yard performance against the Steelers. As we know, Mike Williams, he's averaging 70 receiving yards per game. He has cleared this line in six of 10 games this season. What was most encouraging to me is, especially early in the game, we finally saw Mike Williams run some of those intermediate routes that resulted

in so much success, both for him statistically and for the Chargers offense early in the season. That was pretty much has been the difference between Mike Williams, you know, being super productive or kind of being just, he's been used primarily as just a deep play threat over the past three to four weeks and that's when we saw a dip in production i also think that dip in production can somewhat be correlated to he's had a nagging knee injury that he's been on and off the injury report for the last three four weeks he's been practicing in full this week and practicing full last week was did not have an injury designation we saw him go off. Denver ranked 17th in passing DVOA.

We've also really seen their defense tail off in recent weeks after getting off to a really hot start. They ranked 21st in EPA allowed per dropback, 29th in pass rush grade, 20th in coverage grade. They've had an extremely soft schedule as well. That all bodes very well for Mike Williams, in my opinion. So yeah, I do expect him to continue to run some of those intermediate routes. When Herbert was at his best, it was when Williams was also feasting in addition to

Keenan Allen, obviously. So yeah, I do think he is going to be a focus, get this guy in some of those intermediate spots where, yeah, he's proven to be, he has a diverse route tree. It doesn't make sense for a guy as talented as him, in my opinion, just to be used as a downfield threat. Yeah. He has the versatility to, to run a wide array of routes. I expect that to continue. We saw just a dominant first five weeks where he was averaging close to a

hundred receiving yards per game coupled with the chargersgers having that was the best stretch of their season. So to me, those two things are aligned with each other. I expect them to continue to go back to that. I expect Herbert to have a big game. This is an exploitable matchup, which I liked as well. So yeah, I like Mike Williams. I think the number was just a little bit too low, 50 and a half yards. Yeah, because he still is getting that downfield usage, but to your point,

like they, they were doing the thing that was different for him this year. He was getting some of that intermediate stuff. It wasn't just him running go routes like in prayer yards where they're just, you know, shout out to Daigle. They just chucked down the field. And if, you know, it looks great after every week, it's like, Oh, Mike Williams had all these intended air yards and they were useless. This year, they worked him in to some catchable balls. His catchable target rate was spiking, coincided with wins for the Chargers.

Like you said, there's a lot here where there's the meat on the bone to still get the big plays to get them over 50 and a half. But he still should get some of that intermediate volume, too. So good call there, my friend. I like it. Another one that is a spot where I think there is a potential to blow up Brandon cooks, 57 and a half receiving yards. This is on FanDuel at minus one 14. The last three weeks cooks prop line has been 69,

70 and 70. And now we're getting him at 57 and a half at home, right? Controlled weather against the jets. And I think that that's a big, big, big deal, right? So the box door does not look box score does not look good after last

week, right? Because it was like a monsoon against the Titans and they were up big late, which was wild. So he didn't have a great game, but the jets are the worst past defense in the league. 32nd and past D D VOA.

They've allowed the highest rate of explosive pass plays down the season. Cooks has topped this number despite all the quarterback play issues he's had and half his games a season, but the utilization numbers are through the roof. He's running route on 95% of the dropbacks has a 29% target share and has a 44% share of the team's air yards on the season. So again, knowing that how this prop is 13 and a half yards lower than what it's been closing at for the past month, we're getting a massive discount on Brandon Cooks against the league's

worst pass defense at home where weather's not an issue. So I like Cooks quite a bit. Yeah, I like this. I like this play as well. Yeah, Houston's offensive line has really struggled this season. I believe their 30th and pass block win rate. The lack of time is really affecting, or I heard this has been affecting Cooks, just, yeah, not providing the quarterback the type of time necessary to find him for some of those intermediate and deep routes which he really thrives in uh against this jets defense they're unable to pressure anybody and including this houston team in my opinion so yeah this this spot is very favorable for cooks coupled with just obviously ryan mentioned just a elite usage as well which is what you look for and ty Tyrod Taylor is an upgrade at quarterback.

Yeah. So yeah, this is a really good spot. Wouldn't surprise me whatsoever to see one of these spike games for Cooks get back into the triple digits. Yeah, he's got a perfect matchup. He's still playing at a really high level, just unfortunately just has not had a consistent quarterback play, but this is a spot that he should. So yeah, I like this as well. Yeah. A couple of questions here in the chat. 63 and a half is what some people are seeing in the moment. Yeah. That's probably the ceiling. I'm probably not going to go much higher than that. Our projections are in the low seventies. So we feel like there's a little wiggle there. The nice thing here too, is again, not only the controlled environment, but we're also dealing with another coin flip game as far as the books go, right? We have a two and a half, three point spread.

Don't expect either of these clubs to run away with it per se. So I think 63 and a half keeps us nice. We're not going to, I mean, the Texans are the worst running team in the league. They're not going to all of a sudden be in a run heavy situation, grinding out with, you know, David Johnson carries. We're going to see, to have to sustain drives and move the ball, we're still going to need to see passing games. So with Cooks' share and utilization here, it's going to still have to be Cooks.

One of those big 18-carry, 38-yard performances by Rex Burkhead coming. Insane Rex Burkhead usage last week, which is just absolutely wild. Five and a half receptions on Cooks. Yeah, I can get there too. Again, probably the cap. I think we have like 6.2 is our projection. So that's fine. Not a lot of wiggle there, but I like getting the plus number. I'm fine with those Cooks. I brought those up just because they are Cooks questions. So we're going to jump over to our Twitter questions. Again, if you're in the chat, fire away. Let us know before we do so uh we have a i believe

we have a summary here in case you were just joining us if you want to see what our props are first our mind here we have giovante williams uh over 48 and a half rushing yards on fanduel uh there's also got alex's stamp of approval as does the christ McCaffrey receiving yards number again uh over up until the low 50s over at FanDuel as well minus 114 also backing Debo Samuel 66 and a half receiving yards on DraftKings and Brandon Cook's number I got 57 and a half we're seeing the low 60s now good up until around 63 64 and a half is a play for me. To recap, Alex's plays here. Jonathan Taylor, love this play, two and a half receptions over on FanDuel. Jamar Chase over in a big, big way at 64 and a half receiving yards. You find that across the board.

He's got it at DraftKings. Shorting Tyler Boyd at under four and a half receptions, minus 110 at MGM, which is beautiful. And over on Big Mike Williams, 50 and a half receiving yards on FanDuel. So those are all that we have on the board. I'm going to give you a Connor Allen play. Connor did not go long in the description of why he likes this play before it wraps up. It's the only Connor play I have on the board that's available for us right now.

He likes big Mike Guseckii over 39 and a half receiving yards um so let me take a look and just see if this is actually even a play right now it is I actually saw this recently yeah I was really surprised uh at how low this number is I know obviously Carolina is a difficult matchup. They do cover tight ends very well. But, yeah, just Mike Gusecki is serving as, you know, at worst 1B in this high-volume passing offense. The Miami throws the ball a ton. There's this weird stigma because of Tua last year where people still have like this perception that they're a run-first team,

but they do not have the personnel. And we have seen Tua in the high 30s, low 40s in passing attempts and passing as much as almost any team in the NFL. So, yeah, this is a high-volume passing team. Yeah, it's not creating a ton of gaudy production. But, yeah, Gusecki is functioning at worst as the second target in this offense. So, yeah, even though it is a tough matchup, he's very likely to still receive seven to nine targets.

This number, in my opinion, was just too low. I like this as well. Yeah, I took it as well at 39.5. It's still out there. Points bet has a 40.5. I'm seeing the highest is 42.5 at Caesars, at DraftKings, a 41.5 if you're over on FanDuel. So, yeah, 39.5 is gone, but still very, very much in play.

As Alex said, it's, again, too low. We thought it would be into the upper 40s, not the high 30s or low 40s. He's topped us in nine of 11 games this season. So, a nice spot, and Alex did a good job laying out why this is – perception of this offense is probably a little bit different than what we're actually seeing on the field. We're talking about Myles Gaskin, and they just brought in Philip Lindsay. They're not going run heavy in the spot against Carolina,

so Gusecki is still in a good spot to get a bunch of work. All right, folks, jump into the chat. Let us know what you're thinking. I'm going to go into our Twitter. Great job. We appreciate you guys throwing all these things in here. Alex did a good job tossing this out here for me. Let me go in.

Usually put this in the sheet, but again, my wife made the first of all, my wife is an incredible cook. She made such a good meal yesterday. I had to run it back. She made these sweet potatoes, the sweet potato mash that I don't even like. It was I didn't have dessert.

It was like it had like this cinnamon crumble on top of like really crushed up like walnut walnuts and pecans. I don't even love nuts like that it was so good the gravy the stuffing the mashed potatoes are insane my wife's an insane cook she went to culinary school she's like a world-class baker i'm totally spoiled i hang on to her right dude no joke she knocked it out of the park yesterday her mom's an incredible cook too so they tag team it and i i just ran it back with yesterday's meal. And yeah, so I usually put those in the show sheet for us, but I'm going to go onto Twitter and we're going to walk through. I think Thanksgiving provides the best leftovers.

Dude, I love the meal. Yeah. It's hard not to just continue dipping into that. Making turkey sandwiches, you know, a couple of days after after the fact everything just pairs so well love it as well yeah absolutely love it so all right let's see here we got uh thoughts on this ap picks uh thoughts on evan ingram looking at uh over 39 and a half receiving yards um he also wants to know about davante adams receiving yards as well. Let's tackle Ingram first. Obviously, the path to work or spike in work for Ingram is nice here. Alex, looks like Kadarius Toney is out, Sterling Shepard another week away still.

We like targeting tight ends against the Eagles. They are, if not the worst, I think they are either 31st or 32nd in DVOA against the position, giving up a ton of yards too, as well as the position. Any thoughts on Evan Ingram? Yeah, this is an interesting one. I also want to shout out AP Pix. He's one of my boys. He's an excellent follow on Twitter as well. We collabed on a play earlier that we can talk about a little bit later. But yeah, this is a really interesting one uh Evan Ingram at one point was a top six fantasy tight end and was at one point a very productive player uh he is still he still profiles as very athletic uh yeah the Giants are lacking pass catchers uh Kenny Galladay and Darius Slayton are their only two really healthy options in the offense we also know how much Daniel Jones

loves to target the slot and yeah without Kadarius Tony and Sterling Shepard I'm assuming Evan Ingram is going to run some of those high percentage routes over the middle of the field where the Eagles have been extremely vulnerable they have allowed a ton of tight end production yeah he Daniel Jones is not on the same page whatsoever with Kenny Galladay uh that just looks like a disastrous signing so yeah the production has to come from somewhere I'm also expecting these Eagles to run all over literally and figuratively on this overmatched Giants team so yeah I do like it uh it is hard to back ingram just having seen him he's just you know whether it's drops mental errors uh just inconsistent play but if there was ever a spot

to back him we're also getting a discount on on the number i mean it is higher than it has been lately but he's been underperforming but yeah i see no reason why he shouldn't get eight or at least a minimum of six to eight targets and about as soft as a matchup two opposing tight ends so i definitely lean over on it i unfortunately i have been fading him recently i'm not going to be able to fade him in this spot but he still is evan ingram so it's a little hard for me to make this you know something that i would adore strongly how do you feel ryan yeah ro Robert makes a good point here. He has serious issues catching and holding on to the ball. Like, yeah, Evan Ingram can't catch a cold.

But, again, the matchup is nice. And, again, the target competition is really light too. So our target projections for him at 35, and that is with Tony and Sterling Shepard out. So we haven't made a big move on ingram but i understand why someone would like it again i don't follow our projections blindly they are a you know sometimes a backboard to your own thoughts um you know we don't have we're not projecting much more than 48 and a half for giovante williams and it's my first play today

because i absolutely love the crap out of the play. So I don't follow them blindly, but again, it's good to check the math and make sure that you can get validation for him too. So in the spot, if you feel convicted in it, it's a great matchup. I expect them to trail again, you know, new coaching staff, or at least the new offensive coordinator, new play caller, maybe that helps him there too. So I understand if you're feeling good about it, go for it.

Also, Devontae Adams, 89.5 receiving yards. I mean, you can – anytime that number is below 100 and you feel like it's a strong play, it's Devontae Adams. Go for it. I'm not worried about Jalen Ramsey. He's not going to tail or shadow him per se all game. And even if he does, you know know he is one of the cornerbacks that matters but we're talking about Devontae Adams here again in a spot where you probably don't

have Aaron Jones you probably don't have Alan Lazard again just a minimal target tree in a game that's going to be close you need Devontae Adams to move the ball and I think he eats so again not a play for me currently our projections at 106 yards on Adams I get it he is absolute stud what do you think yeah no I agree completely right I mean this guy is one of the best if not the best uh pure wide receivers in the NFL his floor seems like it's you know high 70s low 80s and that takes you know the Packers being up three touchdowns and grinding clock in the second half uh for one of those floor games so yeah absolutely he's over or no play as far as I'm concerned especially when you find him under 100 yards and yeah this does project or profile to be

a competitive game I could see it being high scoring and those are when he has those spike games or those ceiling games so yeah this does seem like a favorable spot. Also, like you mentioned, Jalen Ramsey doesn't shadow. He plays one side of the field. Even Devontae can eat against Jalen Ramsey as well. So while it isn't the most advantageous matchup, more than capable of triple-digit receiving yards versus any defense in the NFL. So, yeah, if this is one of those games where it is going to be high scoring,

absolutely want to get a piece of him because he's going to be a reason why. He's so good, man. He's so good to watch. Matt at Fuel Rider wants to know about Cordero Patterson, play fade or stay away. Don't Cordero Patterson props in the marketplace currently? We're looking just from a I guess a fantasy start question um I mean we have him projected as the 14th best running back for

the week uh seeing about 10 carries for 35 yards catching another four balls for 46 yards obviously the matchup is nice I think game environment is just worrisome and coming off of an injury so again i don't know what else you're dealing with as far as you know who you're choosing between with cordial patterson you probably need him if he's active you probably start him but probably not with confidence and there's a reason there's no props on him in the marketplace right now so uh we'll keep the ball moving here. GGG Props. Phoenix Suns out. Suns out, guns out.

Has a couple of questions for us here. First, Tevin Coleman, over 35 and a half rushing yards. I've seen a couple of Coleman questions in the chat as well. Situation here in New York with Michael Carter out of the mix. You're going to have some Ty Johnson here. We're going to be dealing with some Coleman stuff here. Do you have any early thoughts on Coleman, 35 and a half yards as a number in the prop market? Yeah, it's an interesting one.

Looking across the Jets, you know, offensive skill players, I thought there were a lot of interesting numbers or potentially enticing numbers. They're all low, and we obviously know they have a plus matchup. But what was working against us is we have Zach Wilson at quarterback who had been absolutely putrid early in the season. I see no reason why that's going to change even in a plus matchup. A couple with just some level of uncertainty having not played

for the past four or five weeks. Tevin Coleman has been ineffective all season, running behind a terrible offensive line. So, yeah, it is hard to back anyone. I was interested to see, and I know they haven't come out yet, what Elijah Moore's props were at. Hoping they come in low. Obviously the guy has been phenomenal lately.

But, yeah, he did not play well with Zach Wilson either. It was pretty much like Corey Davis was the only guy who had any semblance of production with Wilson at quarterback. Wilson also didn't really even target running backs as often. We saw the Michael Carter receiving explosion and Ty Johnson as soon as Mike White came in at quarterback. We saw them utilize their receiving skill sets. So, yeah, it's really hard to back anyone, in my opinion,

in this Jets offense. I know the number is low. The matchup is good, but yeah, it's still Kevin Colvin playing behind an absolutely terrible offensive line. I believe the Jets are underdogs in this game as well. Ryan, is that correct? They are. It would not surprise me to see them trailing and not really, I mean, they abandoned the run pretty much anyway, always. So, yeah, it's hard to find enough contextual support to really back any member of this offense, in my opinion,

outside of really Elijah Moore, maybe Corey Davis if he was active. I think Ty Johnson is actually good, to be honest. If you look at some of his size, speed stuff, he's a talented dude. Again, I think carries and targets are earned and there's a reason that coleman has struggled even with the coaching staff that's familiar with them this is a coaching staff that has come over even on the offensive side of the football from the niners that are familiar with him in the last few years and he's struggled to stay healthy and struggled to really separate from these other guys. I think you laid it out nicely.

I took an under on the Jets team total in this spot. I don't expect a lot from their offense. I've been perfect on the season on Jets team total unders, and it's typically been at like 17 and a half. This week, they're 21 and a half. Again, I know the matchup against the Texans is why we're there, but again, you laid it out. there are 39 quarterbacks that have taken over 100 uh snaps so far this season 39 zach wilson is 39th in epa per play he's 39th in completion percentage over expectation he's 39th in uh success rate he wasn't good and you can't think that he wasn't just benched and like taking volume in practice. He's probably not getting better by attrition watching Mike White and Joe Flacco, right? He is probably going to still come in and struggle a little bit. And now you're taking out,

you got a banged up Corey Davis and you lost Michael Carter. Your offensive line still sucks. The Texans actually do a decent job of getting pressure. I think they're top 10 in pressure rate, believe it or not. So one of the only things they do well as a team, there's just enough on the board to avoid Coleman. It's not this like clean replacement because Carter's out and that he's going to slide right into it. Again, he could top it, but I would feel fine leaving it on the board and playing another day.

This is one of those I'm fine with with waiting to see it first agree 100 i think you stated that perfectly yeah there's uh let's see tom brady excuse me over 30 uh 315 and a half passing yards good spot for brady in the box against a colts defense that is stout against the run alex but struggles mightily against the pass. What are your thoughts on Brady? It seems like a pretty good number to me, but you should have a good day. Yeah, no, you absolutely should have a good day. That is reflected in the projection, though, in my opinion,

is 315 yards is a sizable number. I believe that is the highest of any quarterback's passing prop in this category. But, yeah, I lean over on it for sure. Obviously more than capable. They throw the ball a ton. We've seen Fournette been somewhat ineffective in the kind of Bucs struggle to really get the ground game moving. Yeah, the Colts are a friendly matchup in that respect too.

I also do like how the Bucs play fast. Yeah, they play faster. I think they rank sixth in that category. So yeah, they play fast. They run a lot of plays. However, on the other side, the Colts play as slow as any team in football. Would not surprise me whatsoever if they are keeping Tom Brady off the field as much as possible obviously if they get they're going to implement a game plan where they're going to try to use the ground game run as much clock as possible keep Brady off the field so while it is a good matchup in some respect in the fact that the Colts are somewhat of a pass funnel due to the strength of their run defense I think it does offer some reasons at least to hesitate with a number that

high. I agree. I mean, our, our projection is right there. 317. It's just not enough meat on the bone to, to chase it at that point. It's a, it's a pretty good line and I think he has a good day, but he's, again, you can have a good day at 315 and, you know, fall short. So I would, I just kind of hold off on that one. The other one he wants to know about Tyrod Taylor over 224 passing yards. This is climbing up.

I think I saw it in the low 200s earlier today. I already took a position as I shared earlier on Brandon Cook's over. We know the Jets defense is terrible, but again, like the projection is pretty nice or the line i think is pretty nice we have tyrod uh right around there at 234 alex any lean on tyrod yeah i'd lean over on this one for sure obviously you mentioned this is as good as a matchup as you can get uh we saw tyrod play poorly i do think he will play better. He's played pretty well outside of the off performance that we saw. Yeah, Jets rank literally at the bottom of every single defensive passing category

that there is, 32nd and passing DVOA. And I do expect Houston to have to throw the ball, which is why I like Cooks, to stay in this game. They have no semblance of a running game whatsoever with the corpse of Davidid johnson and rex burkhead who is just waiting to get injured so yeah i do think tyrod's gonna have to throw the ball uh so yeah i'd lean over on this uh i don't love it but i like it and yeah my feelings are definitely over or no play jay at bet the over wants to know about tannahill eight and a half rushing yards gotta take the over right he says and i get it i mean do the dudes that the titans are rolling out this week

are gosh i mean this is rough dude right i mean this is a rough assemblance of talent here uh they are dogs and that number continues to go up. We have him at 12. Again, not enough of a margin for me to bet it, but this is a guy that, you know, you could have some big plays here, doing 20 yards for tuck and runs for Tannehill. Pats are getting pressure at a good rate. I get it.

These are fun, but what do you think? Yeah, no, I typically kind of avoid these props i do think they're subject to a lot of volatility i will use this time to talk about the prop i did give out with my buddy ap picks was a don trail hillard uh rushing prop over 25 and a half rushing yards i do think it's up into the low 30s now. I would avoid it at that number, but yeah, I mean, looking at this Titans offense, it is a ghost of what it was coming into the season. Westbrook as their number one receiver, potentially Dante Foreman and Hillard as their top two running backs. This is going to be ugly against a Patriots defense that has frankly played as well

as any defense in the NFL over the past four to five weeks. This is a tough spot for Tannehill. I would think from a speculative standpoint that he's going to be running for his life or at least trying to initiate offense. He's shown the capability of being a mobile quarterback. He can run. He is athletic. So, yeah, I would imagine he would go over this number. I just don't. It's hard for me to find a ton of additional contextual support for the prop to go over outside of it just being somewhat speculative in nature. But, yeah, I do like it. Yeah, I'd imagine that he has to be creative because they're going to struggle to generate offense

versus an absolutely elite defense, or at least elite of late. Yeah, it's rough. This is another under I took from a team total standpoint. It took under 17 and a half on the Titans. Again, 17 being a key number. We got that extra hook, which is beautiful. You're talking about three to four scoring drives from the Titans here,

and I just really don't see it happening. So, yeah, it's a stay away. Like you said, they're fun. These are actually nice points bet opportunities because if you happen to not hit, your threshold of punishment for falling under is not as expensive. But, man, even if you go, you take an eight and a half number and it gets to 20, you know, you're, you're 12 X-ing your number there. That's a very nice play. So those are kind of the perfect points, but opportunities. All right. Um,

we've got a new listener. This is great. First time listener for the show. Uh, this is such an awesome show. Can't believe I'm listening for the first time. A young man by the name of Connor Allen. Thank you, Connor. Nice to meet you, guy. Thank you,

buddy. Subscribe. So, you know, Mr. Show Connor, maybe we can find it in podcast form in our YouTube page, buddy.

So I appreciate you hanging out with us tonight. Next time, feel free to drop some questions and we can help you out and help you make some plus EV decisions. I think you did have a jared patterson question this is actually perfect yeah jmd uh wants to know are there any jared patterson props please and thank you uh great question uh currently currently not which is unfortunate again this is where you need to go over to points bets talk to our friends over there get a jared patterson

line posted for you. You know, nice spot against home game against Seattle this week. I'm thinking five and a half yards for Jarrett Patterson. We did see that week nine explosion. I do think he handled career high double digit carries. Yeah, potentially he could get in there for two to three carries versus Seattle. Wouldn't surprise me whatsoever to see him eclipse eight rushing yards. Yeah, hoping we can find the number under 10. Jarrett Patterson getting a lot of hype, a lot of buzz behind him.

Potentially a dark horse for MVP at this point. I think he's at least knocking on the door. So, yeah, it's Jarrett Patterson season all the time on this show. Connor Allen has been driving the Jarrett Patterson train. He was first in line to really get behind this guy. We like him. For some reason, they don't put his jersey in the NFL Pro Shop yet, but Connor is making customized jerseys in all the different iterations of,

of colors. So he does though, have a, an actual prop here for us, I guess. It looks like it is a Mike Davis not to be confused with, you know, Jared Patterson's running mates. This is a under 30 and a half rushing yards for Mike Davis over on points. But this is an actual play. Connor's probably driving and typing this. This is very dangerous, Connor,

but this is how much he cares about you. The listeners, he's texting and driving and, and giving us props still somehow. So Connor Allen, official play 30 and a half rushing yards under on mike davis let's see we got oh my gosh this guy next level he's seen three and four carries the past two weeks even with oh we got two lines even with guerrero patterson out and ran behind quadriolus in last

week while wayne goldman remains in the mix for carries he now squares off against a stout Jacksonville run defense that's fresh off stifling a hyped-up Jeff Wilson Jr. and currently ranks fifth in run D DVOA on the season. Oh, my gosh. Amazing, Connor. Incredible listener question. Thank you. That's not just a question.

That is a, like, strong statement. So, man, that is't get any better than that so thank you connor really really appreciate uh yeah this is uh producer sal has a comment he thinks you type better on your phone in your car than you do when you're submitting articles so uh i think that's a fantastic point high praise yeah high praise absolutely love it the sky connor is very informative great job con, Connor. Thank you for using again. Get a four, four sub. Hit me up in the DMs.

See if I can find you some work. I am hiring. So let me know. This is great. This is absolutely great. All right. A few more in the comments here, and then we're going to get to Sal's question or prop bed of

the day here. Just played Javante a hundred yards plus at plus six 50. Yeah, I can get there. Plus six 50 is a nice number. It's our boy grants like that play grant. So frankly, yeah.

Fandubits sprinkle. Let's see what else we got here. You guys are light today. That's we went long anyway uh wentz over this is wentz but then corrected it wentz over uh one and a half touchdowns thoughts i shared my thoughts on these plays i don't love him be honest um he can play really well and still fall short of one and a half touchdowns you know and he could suck and throw for, you know, Jonathan Taylor can mash and get down to the five and they could throw a couple of fades to Pittman. What are your thoughts, Alex? Yeah, no, I completely agree with you, Ryan. I avoid these.

I primarily avoid this category of props. I just think it's very hard to project. As you mentioned, it's just a subject to just a lot of variables that you can't predict and difficult to project. So, yeah, unless it's just like completely skewed or the value is just so great in one side or the other. I just typically avoid them. So, yeah, I'm with you. I stay away from them as well. Agreed. We talk about it a lot here. We're talking about receptions, carries, yards on both sides. Those are way less noisy and subject to variance. We're touchdown props. Again, you can find good numbers, and sometimes I understand it,

and they're fun to cheer for. But, again, you can just – they're coin flip things, and you just – there are just better ways to do it, in my opinion. But, again, teach their own. Mark wants to know about Jacoby Myers under 52.5 receiving yards. We have him at 51. I get it. This could be a very run-heavy game for the Patriots.

Alex, any thoughts on their own Jacoby? Yeah, I looked at this line closely. I do think the line is fairly efficient jacoby is still in a really uh advantageous position as the patriot slot receiver with an accurate quarterback like mac jones is playing phenomenally uh jacoby's been very efficient even though we've seen uh his target share kind of skew or dip a little bit we've seen kentrick bourne get a little more involved recently. So I don't love it.

But at the same time, if the Patriots find themselves in a spot where they need to move the ball, he is a chain mover and he's been very good this season. So yeah, I lean under on it. But I think that outside of game script, it's hard to make a really compelling argument to support the under on it. So for that reason, yeah, I don't love it as a play. I would lean under on it. But, yeah, in a scenario where the Patriots have to move the ball, he is going to be a big reason why, in my opinion. Yeah, I agree with that.

Also from Grant. big reason why in my opinion yeah i agree with that uh also from grant uh hey guys looking at gronk over three and a half receptions gone over every full fitness uh yeah you know every time he is healthy yeah i saw this earlier it's juiced up a little bit so i didn't take it i think he is uh in a really good spot and was obviously massively involved last week but i think we're looking at like minus 170 type juice at this point on gronk let me verify that because i did consider this a play i had this on my watch list yeah we're looking at caesars has a minus 150 and then it's minus 175 on draft kings so that's a little more juice than i like to pay um it is a good matchup, so I get it. Again, there's the old adage that it's only juice when

you lose. Sure, but not a profitable way to sustain bankroll. Also mentioned James Robinson's rushing yards just dropped at 68 and a half. Some nice numbers, a nice matchup against a pretty bad Falcons defense. Our projections for Robinson are just a tick under 80. So this is right on that cusp of playable. Again, really didn't share much work last week with the Carlos Hydes of the world. There's been some discussion of a LaVisca Chenault stealing some carries this week in a very Debo Samuel-like way with Jamal Agnew out. Again, I don't mind that number for James Robinson. I know that it's a play for me, though.

What do you think, Alex? Yeah, I don't mind that number for James Robinson. I know that it's a play for me, though. What do you think, Alex? Yeah, I'm with you. It's just looking at this Jags offense, how anemic they've been, how broken the offense is. I'm a big James Robinson truther. I think he is an above-average talent. I think he is a three-down running back. There's not a lot of those guys. I do like him a lot. He possesses a very interesting skill set. I think in the right team and situation, he is a guy that could be a workhorse running back, but just this Jags team, they're cratering from the outside in right now. It's just hard to get behind any player in this offense. Yeah, there's just too many variables and too many things that could go wrong for this number. We've also seen Robinson have some injury or durability issues this season. When you're playing running back overs, that's already a position and a category that's sketchy.

So you need a significant edge just due to the nature of that position. How many different ways can an under occur compared to an over with a running back prop, especially over on rushing yards, especially when you're getting into these higher numbers, there are very few guys. Nick Chubb is one of them, that I'm comfortable playing. Just because we talk about this, Connor talks about this, there are so many ways that this can go south, whether it's game script, injury. You know, this guy gets 15 touches, he's going to get crushed, you know, over the course of those 15 touches.

Durability issues, offensive line, Urban Meyer, you know, there's just so many things that can go wrong for this prop that, yeah, I just really feel you need a huge edge to play it. So for that reason, it's hard to endorse. That's a great point. Yeah, that is the advantage and the reasoning that often unders our play. The game starts and you're winning. You need to be proven wrong, whereas you're already, as an over, you're chasing right you're you're need to be proven wrong whereas you know you're already as an over you're chasing you're chasing all game right so uh great job by alex explaining that

jacks i want to listen to connor's podcast this is i don't think this is my son uh jacks who uh i spell it the same way i don't think he he's only six months old i don't think he has a youtube account yet um but i still a Connor fan? Big Connor fan. He does like Uncle Connor, so I get it. So let him know that Connor has a podcast and where he can find that. It is time for Sal's, Producer Sal's, Prop Tool Bet of the Week. Sal continues to print here, folks.

You need to be on this. This is easy money. Sal, hit us with the prop tool bet of the week, my friend. Hit the music. All righty here. Let's see. We're back here in Patriot land. Mack Jones, that sexy son of a gun over 227 and a half passing yards.

That is minus 114 over on FanDuel. Our projections for Mack, very, very healthy, 272.7 yards. This gives us basically a 20% clearing on the projection and a 14% value when you incorporate the odds here. I mean, Mac's been awesome. We talk about it all day. The coaching staff is coaching out of their mind. I think McDaniels is coaching well. They're starting to get a bunch of dudes integrated they do not have a like number one receiver but they are second league in explosive pass rate on the year they're getting it done somehow so uh mac jones what do

you think alex yeah that is some impressive stuff you mentioned ryan uh yeah i the i have high quality projections as well and i also noticed that they loved Mac Jones this week. Yeah, in addition to his passing yards, it liked his attempts over. It liked his completions over. Just looking at it from the outside a little bit, from a game flow perspective, I have a hard time seeing Tennessee being competitive in this matchup with the problems that they're facing or the injuries

that they're dealing with offensively and having watched this offense operate the last few weeks even with a healthy A.J. Brown who's obviously already declared out in this game if this were a scenario where I think the Patriots could be pushed a little bit absolutely exploitable favorable matchup Mack has been incredibly efficient. He's just been just excellent this season. But yeah, from the outside, I'm anticipating New England just continuing to kind of limit his passing attempts, run the ball a lot.

But yeah, I get the intrigue and the appeal of it. If Tennessee can push New England a little bit, I think it'd be great. Yeah, I lean there too. So I get it. I saw it too. It jumps out. It's one of the,

it's popping massively in the player prop tool here. Again, this is a resource that comes with a betting subscription for us at four for four guys, $24 for a betting sub. As I mentioned at the top, you cannot beat that. It takes you through the end of February. This is a tool that we have there. It runs off of the books. You can see in the drop-down menu, you can pick your state,

you can pick your sports book, choose whatever stats you like. If you're kind of like me and Alex here, you can filter out passing touchdowns and not mess with receiving touchdowns or anything like that. It can give you the ones you want. You can filter by player or team and all sorts of different things to adjust to whatever else is out there in the market. So we also have the membership also gets you access to the Discord, yes?

Discord, yes. That's another huge value as well. Yeah. Selling itself. So, yeah, and the prop explorer tool is a piece too where you can actually pop in the player's name and then you can see how often they have crossed that number so far this year. So you can go back to last year too and get,

you know, over the last 20 plus games, how frequently are they going over under that number? So again, find that in the show notes, four for four.com slash paint plans. Again, that's going to get you NBA stuff that takes you through the end of the

season through the end of the season, through the end of February. And again, Alex is going to have an NBA article for us at 444. That's only going to be at 444 that day. You're going to want Alex's NBA picks. He is as good in the NBA as he is in the NFL. He is going to make us money, $24. That's going to get you what?

10 articles. Like that itself, you're paying two 50 for a property NBA article guys. I mean, you get quality projections. You get my articles, you get access to a phenomenal discord where Ryan and Connor constantly giving out their picks, a ton of value, multi-sport coverage. It is honestly just a tremendous value. You cannot beat the price. Highly recommend everybody do.

Like you said, it's like a quarter unit bet. It will pay itself off many times over. It's good through Monday. So you, you know, that game is ending on Monday night. Do not go to bed. If you kicked it down the can and didn't do this right away, make sure you do not wake up Tuesday morning and have to pay full price. Even then it's still ridiculous where it's only $179 for the entire year at full price. So take advantage of the deal. Again, we're going to have a prop tool just like that for the NBA as well. So again, it's going to be an incredible season and we want you to be a part of it

because we appreciate all of the community and all the stuff that you guys bring to make Connor, Alex, and I's jobs fun. So Alex, I enjoy doing this with you as always, man. Connor, thank you for hanging out and jumping in, buddy. We will be back with our full Nirvana ensemble next week. Connor back on the drums, full Dave Grohl style to bring us home and play the hits. Producer Sal again, giving us winners on the back end.

So for Alex, I am Ryan. We will see you next week. Yeah! Outro Music