Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 13 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: December 4, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick. In this week's episode, Connor is gone again, so it's just Ryan and Alex discussing their top Week 13 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 13 Prop Drop Intro 3:42 Alex Prop No. 1 6:28 Ryan Prop No. 1 9:14 Alex Prop No. 2 12:29 Ryan Prop No. 2 15:45 Alex Prop No. 3 19:10 Ryan Prop No. 3 21:39 Alex Prop No. 4 23:04 Ryan Prop No. 4 28:32 Prop Betting Cards Recap 29:40 Viewer Props Q + A 49:56 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 54:34 Week 13 Prop Drop Outro

Hello and welcome to Move Align, the Prop Drop show. Prop Drop presented by WinBets. Download the WinBet app today. Take advantage of our promo code 444. Receive a risk-free $1,000 bet at win. I am Ryan Noonan, again joined by just one of my favorite fellow Prop DGens, Prop Stars himself. Alex, what is going on, buddy? Just you and me again, dancing. Just a two-man dance, you know? Just another two-man show. Connor picking up another DNP. This wasn't Coach's decision, however.

Seems like he's dealing with a little injury bug or something like that. So, yeah, we're going to hold it down. We did great last week, Ryan. I'm expecting us to do great again. Connor's out there grinding the real man work streets for us while we sit here in our cushy homes and talk about player props and you know connor's out there pounding pavement getting things done um you know work emergency for connor hopefully we can get him to jump in as an active listener like he did last week if not so be it

connor will likely be back next week i know this is killing him to miss this because this is uh his favorite time of the week. So we'll try to hold it down for him. I don't really have any plays from last week. We had a little bit, some stuff in the Discord chat. But it's all right. Probably not going to hold this down. We'll do our best to do so.

I agree, Ryan. Those biceps on Connor did not grow organically. So, yeah, you got to put in the work. Sometimes that involves some extracurricular stuff. So he's out there flexing on everybody. It's good that, you know, he stays fit. That's true. Creatine donuts, I think are his thing. So I'm not sure how that works, but it's, it's working for him.

So we appreciate wherever you're listening. If you are watching on YouTube or listening in podcast form, wherever you are, we appreciate if you would subscribe. So you don't miss a show again, Move the Line has two episodes every week. Again, props here on Friday nights. On Wednesday, Connor and I go game by game from a betting perspective with folks from around the industry. Again, more sides and totals, getting into a little bit more of the granular football stuff.

We want to also remind you, if you head down into the show notes, you can find information on how to access our betting subscription over at 4444. Again, ending the year. But again, we have NBA stuff coming up, including our boy Alex here, starting up in a couple of weeks, just before Christmas. I think we have almost all those ducks in a row. Really excited. We're going to have prop tools as well. Our prop explorer tool.

We're going to have college hoops as well. We're going to have prop tools as well. Our prop explorer tool. We're going to have college hoops as well. We're going to have college hoops prop tool. So we are, we got things moving and shaking. Again, check the show notes, how you can access our subscription over at 444.com. Again, this part of the show is going to be where Alex and I go around. We're going to take turns sharing props. And then the end is your turn where you get in, fire off in the chat. We have some questions from Twitter.

If you are watching live on YouTube, we super appreciate it. Let us know if there's something you're considering. Is there a question that you want to bounce off of us? Get our take on the number. And then we're going to bring producer Sal at the end to just continue running as pure as a baby's bottom with the player prop tool pick of the week. Sal continues to absolutely crush his ROI and winning percentage through the roof on the season. So should be blindly following producer Sal when we get there to the end. So, Alex, it is that time, my friends, the first bet of the week. Kick us off. Get us started here. What is your first bet?

Yeah, I'm going to pull a little pivot here and just go with my favorite play of the week. Kick us off. Get us started here. What is your first bet? Yeah, I'm going to pull a little pivot here and just go with my favorite play of the week. Typically, I save that for my final play. I'm going to get this one out first. I'm feeling extra generous tonight. Hey, buddy. Yeah, and that is James O'Shaughnessy over two and a half receptions. Yeah, I saw this at minus 130 prior to coming on the show on draft Kings draft Kings only,

by the way, as of right now, I was shocked at this number. I've been waiting for this number all week, fully anticipating an opening at three Oh five or excuse me, 3.5 receptions. So to get it at 2.5 and not even be that heavily juice. This is incredible.

In my opinion. Yeah. i'm making this a one and a half unit play for the record as well uh we know no dan arnold on the offense for uh jacksonville that is going to elevate james o'shaughnessy to the starting tight end honestly that makes him the wide receiver one of this passing offense. If you're curious about the other wide receiver options on this team, Laquan Treadwell tied for the lead in targets last week. To give you an idea of what else is happening as far as the skill position players on Jacksonville are concerned, O'Shaughnessy ran a route on 82% of

dropbacks. He's very likely to once again have an 80% route rate, which is obviously very valuable at the tight end position, even in a bad offense. Yeah, like I mentioned, 82% of Jacksonville's dropbacks. He had four targets. I think he's going to have a very good game. Saw eight targets in his only game as the starter.

That came in week one. He suffered an injury in week two. The Rams have also been somewhat of a tight end funnel this season. only game as the starter that was came in week one he suffered injury in week two the rams have also been somewhat of a tight end funnel this season they've given up 62 receptions to the tight end position that's the seventh most receptions allowed in the nfl we saw dan arnold essentially function as the wide receiver one or the you know the main the focal point of this aerial attack if you can even call it that in jacksonville. Shaughnessy's going to do the same thing. I'm anticipating him getting six to eight targets.

Yeah, just again, I'm shocked this didn't open at 3.5. I was going to make it a play there, so getting it at 2.5 is just icing on the cake. Yeah, this is interesting because I saw this probably about a half an hour ago too and was back and forth between this and then also the the yardage i think the yardage is like 25 and a half which is also very low uh yeah i mean you did a great job laying it out i think they're both probably in play and now that i have the uh prop stars stamp of approval i'll definitely go back because this is a late addition to your to your card here so yeah i i like it quite a bit you did a great job laying

it out and yeah i think the yardage is in play too if that hasn't been steamed too much my first one has been hit a little bit and i know that this is one that also you're on so again always feels good when we have we're aligned on these ones antonio gibson over 89 and a half combined rushing and receiving yards i think it's up a little bit. I'd play it comfortably into the mid nineties. I haven't seen exactly where it is as of like, as we record here, but obviously it was nice to see him in an alpha role on Monday nights. And then JD McKissick leaves with a concussion late in that one. And this just clears the slate here for Antonio Gibson.

We have Wendell Smallwood, Connor's boy, Jarrett Patterson mixing in. Maybe we see some Patterson props for real here this week. That'd be so funny. And we'd have to just auto bet those. But yeah, I mean, I think we see 75 to 80% of the snaps for Gibson. And he's coming off of a 29 carry seven target game against Seattle. Even if that, what is that? That, you know, 36 opportunities, even if he's down to 25 opportunities here, I think we're very in good shape here. Anywhere really below a hundred yards. This is a nice matchup. We have

a 49 and a half game totally here. I think Washington is very much live to win outright in this game. It's one and a half, you know, two point total. So very much, we're not worried about game script. And again, seven targets for Gibson. And that's where this really helps too. If McKissick is out of play, then it kind of, you know, wheels up for Gibson in the passing game, which is something we have been dying for all season anyway,

because he's very much, he was a receiver in college, throw him the damn ball. So a really nice spot here for gibson again i play comfortably into the mid 90s and i know alex is on it as well yeah i absolutely love this play ryan i actually got on his rushing attempt obviously it's highly correlated there the number came in at 16 and a half not sure what it's at now but yeah we've seen some monster workloads recently from gibson he's looked really good especially over the last few weeks. Seems like he's over that shin injury that was kind of hobbling him midway through the season. Washington football team is not afraid to give him large workloads either.

You mentioned, you know, J.D. McKissick should, you know, give him a big boost in snaps. Even with McKissick on the field, he was getting a ton of work. Yeah, I think the game script is positive here as well. We also know that the Raiders have an elite pass rush. One of the best ways to mitigate said pass rush is by running the ball. So, yeah, they're somewhat of a run funnel because that's a good way to counter, you know, Yannick Ngakwe and Max Crosby on the edges. So, yeah, I absolutely love Antonio Gibson this week. I think he's going to get as much work as he can handle, and he's proven recently he can handle quite a bit of work. So yeah, I think this nine under 100 yards is a slam dunk, so

absolutely has my stamp of approval. That'll lead me into my next play, and we will go with Byron Pringle, over 19.5 receiving yards. We've seen recently McColl Hardman get demoted to a part-time player in Kansas City's offense. Yeah, he had caught two of his three targets for 25 yards against the Cowboys last week, dropped a pass along the way. We saw Byron Pringle, on the other hand, run 66.

He ran a route, excuse me, on 66% of Patrick Mahomes' dropbacks. He is fully operating right now as the Chiefs' number two wide receiver. Furthermore, even when Byron Pingle was a part-time player, he still cleared 20 receiving yards in six of 11 games, including the previous two games, which is where we've seen him kind of elevated into these two wide receiver formations. And besides Travis Kelsey and Tyreek Hill, he's essentially on the field more than any other skill position player on the Chiefs. Yeah, he's played 86 snaps the last two weeks combined compared to McCole Hardman, who's played 36. Demarcus Robinson played 54. So, yeah, he's the guy. Yeah, I'll just take a piece of, frankly, any player on this Kansas City offense who's on the field as much as he is with a receiving line under 20 yards. Yeah, he's not the most game-breaking player in the league,

but you don't have to be when you have Patty Mahomes throwing the ball and the amount of attention that Tyreek and Kelsey command. Brian, you were on this, I think the first week you kind of took that jump from part-time player into a more full-time player in this Kansas City offense. It hit then, I just think this number is too low, should have opened, you know, the mid to high 20s. I haven't penciled in or projected for low 30s. So yeah, I like this prop quite a bit. Yeah, I wrote this up at 4 for 4 in my prop article today. Yeah, I absolutely love it. We were on it two weeks ago because they had a bye last week, so there wasn't a Pringle

prop to that. But yeah, you light it up. And the Holman or the McColl-Hardman snap rate, it's gone from 73% to 33%. It was 18% last week. So the thesis behind why we were backing Pringle to begin with was he's on the field more than anyone else. And his, his snap is they're holding steady. 60, 67, 67 last couple of weeks, Gordon and Robinson, as you laid out, aren't really sniffing that.

They're all kind of sharing ancillary pieces around wide receiver three, wide receiver four. That happens. Pringle's the dude on the field. He took us there last week at one catch at 37 yards. He has a 14 yard average depth of target. Like we don't even have a high threshold here. So like the way he is used, he does have kind of game breaking after the catch ability. So he really needs to just catch one, maybe two balls. And we are cooking at this point.

So this is one of those ones that like, if there's a point sped opportunity here, this is one of those ones that like, if there's a points bet opportunity here, this is a fantastic play because again, the threshold is so low at 19. We're not, we're mitigating the risk of really bottoming, bottoming out if he doesn't catch a ball, you know, which I guess is in the range of outcomes, but he's on the field for two thirds of the snaps. That's just not happening. So yeah, our projections are in the low 30s too. So yeah, absolutely game breaker. Love it.

Again, love when we're aligned. Next one I'll go with here, Hollywood Brown, over four and a half receptions. This is minus 125 on DraftKings. I tried to bet this this morning and it moved to minus 150 while i was placing it so i stopped i was like i just don't love paying that much juice i kind of want to get the full unit back on it so i i stopped but i it didn't make any sense to me because if you look at the usage and how he's been used lately four and it should be five and a half but then later for some reason it's taken some action on the other side because

it went back to minus 125 and fire it up i know you know lamar's looks not great of late and there sometimes we worry about the pittsburgh defense i don't think we worry about the situation of the pittsburgh defense very much and if you look at browndigit targets and four straight. He's got eight balls on 10 targets, six balls on 13, nine on 12, and then just five, but on 14 targets. He is Lamar's first look. And, you know, just massive, massive target share, massive targets per route run numbers, the area yards numbers, all the things that we want in here.

Four and a half is way too low. And I think this should be five and a half. And if you can get anywhere at minus 125, minus 130, I think you play it. Agreed. I think I have some inside information on why you saw that jump from minus to minus 150 this morning. That is because I am also backing this play, Ryan. I gave this out earlier on a stream appearance this morning. So I think you probably caught it around that same time. Yeah, absolutely love this play, Ryan. I gave this out earlier on a stream appearance this morning,

so I think you probably caught it around that same time. Yeah, absolutely love this play. Yeah, text me first, man. You got to let me know. I don't want to be getting steamed by the Profstars team, you know? You got the Profstars team. I got to be on the front end of the Profstars team, man. Yeah, but absolutely love this, just to piggyback on what you said.

Yeah, he's getting just the huge target shares that, you know, alpha one wide receivers get, especially recently, you mentioned 11 targets over the last four games. That is elite by any standards, especially, you know, normally associate Baltimore with a high volume passing attack. But yeah, he has been fantastic. I was also equally as surprised as you that this number didn't open at five and a half, or I even think it's a decent value there as well. Furthermore, it's a good matchup against Pittsburgh 26 and passing DVOA. Reagan's also not really able to run the ball very effectively. So yeah, I think they're going to have to air the ball out. That's what's been working for them all season. And yeah,

the offense is going to run through Hollywood Brown. So yeah, absolutely love that one as well. Great to see that we are aligned. Love being aligned as well, Ryan. All right, we're at the turn.. Great to see that we're aligned. Love being aligned with the problem starters. Love being aligned as well, Ryan. All right, we're at the turn. We're halfway point.

So if you're watching and hanging out with us, start firing some questions in the chats because we both have two more to go. We have a few on Twitter, but then we want to get into anything that you have that you're considering. Again, confirmation bias. What have you already fired off at? Is there anything that you're considering?

Is there anything that you're waiting that hasn't been posted yet that you want to get our thoughts on to kind of give you a range of where we think that's a buy, depending on where it pops. So any of those reasons, jump in the chat, let us know. We will take it. We are turning on the back nine. We got a beer and a dog at the turn. Who knows what else is going on at the turn with probably maybe out in the garden real quick, ready to hit the third one here what do you got buddy yeah i was also going to say we field all in any questions as well so yeah it doesn't even have to be prop related questions you want to know we're reading for dinner what we're doing this weekend the last movie ryan and i saw we're happy to talk

to you guys so just fire as many questions as you possibly can we'd love them that brings me to my third prop uh also really really like this one as well. I was surprised this number didn't open higher. I actually caught this at 75 yards. That's Alexander Madison over 75-and-a-half rushing yards. I would play this up to about 80-and-a-half yards. I know it's at 77-and-a-half on most books, but I did see it at 75-and-a-half on points bet.

Do you want to point that out? They do have that option there as well. Yeah, like I mentioned, comfortable playing this up to 80.5. We saw Madison with a full-time role against the same Lions team earlier this season. He went 25 carries, 113 yards on the ground, also seven catches, 40 yards, and touchdown. Yeah, so absolutely huge, 32-touch performance. Yeah, this is a great matchup as well. This is also going to be another massive workload if he stays healthy, which we hopefully he will because the Vikings don't have another talented running back behind Madison. Obviously

with Cook, you have Madison, so he can kind of siphon some of those carries. Madison's going to be the guy and he's going to get a ton of work. In the two games that Cook has missed this season, Madison has touch counts of 36 and 36. That is absolutely huge. Then we have Detroit just being an incredible matchup. They rank 28th in DVOA, 21st in rushing DVOA. They've given up the fifth most yards to the running back position, roughly 109 per game. They've given up a total of 133.9 rushing yards per game overall.

They're allowing teams to run the ball 31.4 times per game. That is the second most in the NFL, only behind Seattle. So teams are just running the ball down the Lions' throats. Not a surprise there whatsoever. We know Mike Zimmer, what does he love to do he loves to hand the ball off he's going to hand the ball off to alexander madison 20 plus times if the game script is you know favorable which all indications point to it being considering that they are touchdown favorites yeah so i'm expecting them to get plenty of work was expecting this line to be in the mid 80s i think he's an absolutely just locked in play at 77 and a half yards you there right i'm muted sorry i was coughing there we go amateur hour i was like did we freeze for a second wait what happened oh my gosh i keep going i'm gonna piggyback here and uh different

look but also an alexander madison play again, this is fan duel specific. Unfortunately, we don't like to typically be locking in on a particular book, but shout out to my boy MJ three in our discord. Our discord at four for four is awesome. So shout out to all of our guys in there. They, at this point, like oftentimes I'm busy doing so many things during the course of a week, I'll do prep. And then I'll give them a list of like, here's some guys that I'm looking at as far as overs go. And like guys will literally just message me stuff. It's fantastic. Community is awesome. There are people that can keep it

afloat when we're not in there too. It's a really, really sharp group. So love it. Love it. Love it. MJ3 found this first. There's a prop specific on again fan duel most rushing yards in that game vikings lions madison opened it plus 105 to be the leading rusher in that game i think it's moved now to minus 115 absolutely still play madison leading rusher in that game is basically a normal prop number for us to uh this was obviously a fire you know the guns added a plus 105 number but again we have madison projected for 87 and a half yards jamal williams the next closest at 53.6 and as you kind of laid out this is a scenario where we have both backup running backs and these are the situations when these happen,

there's the path for them having like a huge workload is even better than normal because there's a large gap between the second and the third guy. You know, sometimes that gap between the alpha number one and the number two guy isn't as big, but that Delta between two and three, like it is astronomical. So again, these guys both have the clear workload here and again as you laid out all the reasons we like madison like absolutely love

this play and now we have a 34 yard difference in projections at basically even odds so again fan duel specific offering i know some other books do things like this and sometimes they don't post to the weekend if you have fan duel i would probably play this up until maybe like 135 or so. Like that's kind of the appetite that I have for it. I still think it's a great bet, like minus 200 to be honest. We're thinking about actual probabilities of this one hitting. So I absolutely love this Madison to be the leading rusher in that game. If you have FanDuel, these leak out slowly. So take a look. There are some different opportunities in the passing market,

in the receiving market. This is my favorite of the week. So MJ3, thanks for that one, buddy. One more. Oh, go ahead. Yeah, no. When I saw this play on the sheet, I was blown away. It's fantastic value, in my opinion.

Props to you, MJ3, for finding an absolute gem. Yeah, if you have FanDuel, I mean, this is an absolutely must play. Just hammer this right away. Ryan mentioned the edge is huge. Yeah, it would take probably an injury is the only way that this prop doesn't clear when you just factor in everything, you know, from talent, game flow, opportunity, et cetera. So, yeah, absolutely love that play. So, yeah, for my fourth and final play, I am going with Old Faithful, Mr. Keenan Allen, over six and a half.

Reception saw this at minus 140. I mean, listen, we know Keenan is the firmly entrenched as the Chargers wide receiver, won 28% target share, also 32% in air yard share. He's running more routes than any wide receiver on the field on the Chargers. Double-digit targets in eight of 11 games, including five straight games. Over the last five games, his lowest target was eight. He's having one of the best seasons in the nfl any wide receiver he's caught at least seven passes in four straight games and seven of 11 games overall bengals ranked 19th in passing dvoa we've seen cincinnati

they're very susceptible to short and intermediate routes which is where keenan does a lot of his damage he is one of the league's elite route runners. Should find plenty of soft spots in the middle of that Bengals defense where they give up a lot of production. Also, this game projects to be high scoring, has all the makings of a track meet, has the highest total on Sunday's slate, 50.5 points, should feature plenty of offense. Generally that correlates well with props like this.

I expect Herbert to lean heavily on keenan allen this weekend love it can always get behind a keenan allen volume prop like there's just nothing wrong with those ever good spot for sure uh nice in the slot good breakdown there too i'm gonna bring it home with uh jonathan taylor over 105 and5 rushing yards. This is minus 115, minus 114, I'm sorry, on FanDuel. Again, I know a lot of people don't have an appetite for an over 105 yards. So I get it. I had some smart, sharp, respectful pushback in Discord, and I think I understand it.

But we have to at some point need to acknowledge statistical outliers, and I think a case can be made for how Taylor is being used right now and how well he's playing, that he is a statistical outlier, and this is a fantastic matchup against the Texans. He is top this in five of seven. He nearly got there last week against one of the league's best rushing defenses in the Bucs in a game where the coach was dragged for not using him enough. And I think they come out this week, and even though I think Frank Wright did an excellent job at stating why, and he said we should have abandoned the run even earlier given game setting and how they were playing,

I think he comes out this week and absolutely hammers Jonathan Taylor. And if we're getting even close to 20 carries in this spot for him which he's been doing more frequently of late he absolutely crushes on the turf against a bad bad defense I absolutely love this spot he got there he had 145 yards against them back in week six on just 14 carries like I think I know it's a big number of guys, but I absolutely love Jonathan Taylor here. I think 105 is still, again, I understand why it hasn't moved. It bounced up, I think, to like 109 for a bit and then came back down because it's such a big number. So I understand why people would be reluctant to do so.

But again, outlier spots, outlier back. He is a machine. So over 105 and a half on JT for me. What is not to love with jonathan taylor i agree with your theory regarding the outlier synopsis he is the new derrick henry obviously profiles totally different different style runner but yeah he is one of these guys that even in the triple digits to me he offers value especially in a matchup like this when you look at the historical splits and just how bad houston has been uh yeah i'm bullish on this prop i'm bullish on the colt and i'm bullish on jonathan taylor being the offensive player of the year so yeah i think he's gonna have

an absolutely monster day break off plenty of big runs so yeah like this as well let's go yeah offensive player of the year like we know nowadays like don't waste your money on running back MVP votes if you're getting into futures or anything like that. Like that's a quarterback award. Like you would need historical. And even then, like it's dicey. Right. If Aaron Rodgers has his typical season, then, yeah,

it's even difficult to overcome that, even if you set the rushing record or something like that. So, yeah, it requires totally ladanian tomlinson 30 touchdowns and 2500 all-purpose yards and yeah even like the did he win mvp that season yeah you know i think we've moved i think we've moved into um quarterbacks only nowadays again i think we we know that that's the case but uh yeah you if tom brady leads the league in passing touchdowns and the bucks are a number one seed like no beating that for a running back yeah he needs 2,500 yards and you know in 25 touchdowns so chip is probably sailing it's jared patterson style production it's jared patterson style production. It's Jared Patterson style. All right. Let's jump into some of our

Twitter questions here. Let me see where Prop Stars tweet was. Again, we appreciate all of these. Sorry, my video is laggy and weird. You know, I'm down here in the dungeon. So sometimes things get wonky. Working on it. JMD, do you have a target yards for elijah moore i think he's spectacular obviously the qb play is leaving something to be desired i'd say it lightly yeah any thoughts on elijah moore obviously they were pretty disappointing um in a big big way there last week um yeah elijah mo, anything off the top for you? Yeah, I love Elijah Moore as well. I know a lot of you guys have been following me all season,

been riding the guy quite a bit. Yeah, so obviously very high, very bullish on him. But you obviously have to be concerned with the quarterback play. Zach Wilson also isn't the easiest matchup. But, yeah, I don't think the Eagles secondary. They do struggle. If Moore is going to get snaps out of the slot, he should be able to produce. However, if they do decide to use him outside and they give a lot of those snaps to Crowder, it's a little bit different of a story. The Eagles tend to cover the boundaries a lot better than they cover the middle of the

field. So yeah, that would be something I'd pay attention to. But yeah, I would imagine he'd be in the low 50s to high 40s, Ryan. Is that what you would envision as well? Yeah, probably high 40s. We have a projection at 58s. I don't know that there's enough of an edge there to bet it. I mean, if he comes in at like 40, obviously that would be.

Yeah. But, yeah, chances are he's going to be, I would guess, like 48 and a half between that and 52 and a half, somewhere in that. Yeah. No, good call. Sal, I skipped us too. Let's do our recap before we move on to the rest of the questions here. I hope I didn't skip us.

Sounds like a man, professional. So if you're just joining, these are all of Alex's props so far. James O'Shaughnessy, over 2.5 receptions. Alexander Madison, over 77.5 rushing yards. He's got Keenan Allen, over 6.5 receptions. And then Byron Pringle, 19 and a half receiving yards uh you can again go back to the beginning listen to all of alex's fantastic breakdowns as to why uh as far as my props go here uh antonio gibson combined rushing and receiving over 89 and a half Take that comfortably into the mid-90s.

Most rushing yards in the Minnesota and Detroit game, Alexander Madison is the guy there. That's plus 105 on FanDuel. Again, comfortably up into minus 130 range, if you could still get that. Hollywood Brown over 4.5 receptions. Again, on DraftKings at minus 125. And then Jonathan Taylor over 105 and a half rushing

yards that is out there pretty much painted across the board so definitely like those Sal you're the man we will move back to the people's props JMD with another one Denzel Mims he's just slamming us with Jets receiver questions Mims over if it's reasonable. No Cole, no Davis. Somebody theoretically has to catch the ball, you would assume. Yeah, you would think, but it's the Jets, so not necessarily. Let's see where we have any Mims. I mean, you can get Braxton Berrios catching balls here. I would actually look at Ryan Griffin if we get a somewhat generous line for him, especially in this matchup.

I think the Eagles are the worst, if not the worst, one of the three worst teams when it comes to defending opposing tight ends. We've seen Griffin. He's played. He's on the field a ton. He is their primary pass catching tight end. Ryan, you just mentioned a lot of injuries with the Jets receiving options. So, yeah, there's not going to be a lot of injuries with the Jets receiving options. So, yeah, there's not going to be a lot of viable options for Wilson to throw to. And, yeah, it's a good matchup in a game that should be likely to be trailing with or without Hurts at quarterback for the Eagles. So, yeah, I'd pay attention to Ryan Griffin, especially if he's under 20 yards, which I would anticipate him being in that range.

I think he would have some nice value there. I like that a lot more than anything with Mims. Mims is prop number, or our projection is Mims catching 1.9 balls for 28 yards. So just so high variance with limited snaps, even in this setting here. So again, like I said, we know the injuries are i like i like alex's take there quite a bit um bet the over kittle over 52 and a half receiving yards hammer that right i did love it uh what do you think about kittle alex yeah i love it as well i want to say too that it was tough this week i know we didn't have enough overs between us both. Ryan, hopefully next week we can play a few less unders, get some more overs on our card.

But, yeah, no, I absolutely love this play. Yeah, I think I had him projected in the low 70s, I want to say. I actually strongly considered Kittle as a play for this show. Yeah, Seattle, I believe, is 31st in DVOA to the tight end position. We know Nodebo Samuel as well. It kind of comes down to, in my opinion, if or at least I would like to know, I feel better about this prop, if I thought Seattle could push San Francisco. I do have some reservations about that. I do think San Francisco is obviously their first, second, and third focus is generally running the ball. That's what they like to do, and they do it well.

So if Seattle can give them a little bit of resistance, score some points, make this a game, yeah, this is an amazing spot. But that's what ultimately led me from making it a play on this was just, you know, one of the ranges of outcome to me, one of the more likely range of outcomes is a game where San Francisco just controls this game from start to finish, running the ball a ton with Elijah Mitchell, and, yeah, just not getting the sort of, you know, 30-plus passing attempts that we want to see for Kato to get 6 to 10 targets, which he'd need in most scenarios to eclipse this number.

But, yeah, absolutely phenomenal matchup. It's an over or no play, absolutely, as far as I'm concerned. But, yeah, that's my reservation. No, that's a good way to sum it up. I hit it. You know, his number had been posted like 62 and a half, 59 and a half, really, you know, for the majority of the season. And now we got him dipping down at 52 and a half with no Debo with no Debo in a

game, just because he's coming off of kind of a clunker because they ran so much against Minnesota. So I think you're just kind of buying the, you know, it's almost a pure price play for me. Our projections have him at 73.2. So we have a nice little edge there. Yeah, I mean, I think that they could probably run away with it and it becomes a run heavy game. And then all of a sudden it's a little different, but I like the price enough based off our projections on them.

So I thought it was a fire, but yeah, I agree. It's over or nothing as far as he goes. All right, we'll jump into your questions here on YouTube. Again, we appreciate everyone. Good evening. How you doing? Natalia, what's up? You're the best.

Brandon Cooks, over 55.5 receiving yards for Cooks. I think that that is a fine number. Cooks, I believe, saw a crap ton of action last time they played back in week six. I want to say he had 13 or 14 targets. Because of the way that Matt Eberflus plays defense or calls defense for the Colts, they play a lot of Tampa 2. They play a lot of deep cover 2 stuff. They do not give up a lot of big plays.

They give up a lot of stuff underneath. We typically like tight ends against the Colts, running back pass catchers against the Colts. That's why you're going to see that type of volume and not a ton of yards. So I get why you're going to see that type of volume again for Cooks here. Let me give you a projection number for him. We have him at 68.7 yards so i would say that that is a lean over for him for sure again fell short of this last week nice deep touchdown pass but couldn't really get anything going but not a play for me but if you have an inkling that you like it again i would to echo alex's standpoint i would say probably over or nothing what do you think about cooks at 55 and a half money yeah Yeah, no, I would agree.

Taking a little closer look at Cooks too, he's actually running a bit cold from a yards per target standpoint. So, yeah, kind of similar to actually Marquise Brown. Obviously, Marquise Brown's had close to elite production. But, yeah, Cooks is performing below expectations. There's a good chance that he should be performing better if you look at some of the metrics like yards per target one so yeah i can see some bigger games in the future considering his target share and how well he is playing obviously some inconsistent quarterback

play there but yeah this is this seems like a pretty good spot to target him against indianapolis in a game that they're going to be absolutely trailing uh yeah elite target share and yeah he's certainly getting the look. So also not the worst matchup either. The way to beat the Colts is through the air. So I do expect him. This is a pretty good spot for him, I would say. Yep, agree with that for sure.

All right. Dan wants to know about Jalen Waddell. Waddell overs, receptions, or yards. Let me see. I haven't seen what he is in the market um maybe 65 60 yeah 63 and a half on fandle 65 posted on points bets it's right about where our projection has and we have been projected for 67 yards six balls not enough of an edge i think there's obviously i haven't seen this in the last hour or so again,

if Devontae Parker is going to be back. I know there was some discussion about him and his shoulder possibly coming back. That could impact that a little bit, but yeah, thoughts on Waddle? Yeah, I mean, it's over, no play as far as I'm concerned i agree with you the guy's been phenomenal like coming off of his first triple digit game last week yeah he's he's dynamic fast they're creative getting the ball in his hands i actually like the fact that they get the ball in his hands a lot close to the line of scrimmage uh from an efficiency standpoint you might not see um you know the greatest numbers but yeah he he's their best offensive player get the ball in his hands he's an absolutely dynamic playmaker uh yeah so i'd lean over and i would be a little cause for concern um if uh parker is back uh could eat into his target share we have

seen parker has been on the field minimal amount amount this season, but when he is, he still gets targeted a lot. So there are other mouths to feed on that offense. And the Giants actually do play the pass somewhat well. I believe they're top 10, actually, in passing DVOA, if I'm not mistaken, or at least top 15. I think you're mistaken, but I'll pull it up here. No, they passed the DVOA. They're seventh. They're 22nd and passing success rate allowed

so that's a pretty big discrepancy in in how those metrics measure depending on uh dvoa is taking into consideration uh turnovers and things of that nature a lot more success rate is going to be more play-by-play executing expectations so you know they're middle of the pack i think middle of the pack they're not terrible yeah uh but yeah nothing to be more play-by-play executing expectations. So, you know, they're middle of the pack. Middle of the pack. They're not terrible. But, yeah, nothing to be obviously too scared of. So, yeah, but, yeah, with Parker back, this is a high number for him. So that would probably be a little bit of cause for concern

or at least not an automatic play like he has been at some of the lower numbers. I agree. Waddle has a job to do this weekend. He needs to lead Connor and I's FFPC team for the next round so we can take home the 50K to win that money. Waddle is Dan's new Michael Pittman, I've noticed. Yeah. Dan's got some, you know, he's forcing his like our brand guys onto us like you know

wants me to bet michael pittman every week i love michael pittman don't be mad at me when i don't bet michael pittman it's the same he's expecting connor to jump in here watch the show back and and uh blindly chase waddle props so we love dan dan's the man he is the man small little baby calves but the rest of it is fantastic uh patrick wants to know about jared goff over 21 and a half completions we have golf at 21.8 patrick that is not a bettable edge i probably best off taking the under in that instance uh alex you have any appetite for jared go props? I don't. It's tough for me. This is a pretty solid matchup with the amount of injuries with Minnesota this week. I think he'll actually

I think Detroit will be in the game. No DeAndre Swift hurts them a bit. We've also seen them sort of shift To more of a run heavy team They're not letting Goff kind of Take on the same volume That he was earlier in the season Obviously no Swift

Means they may Pass the ball a little bit more but obviously he's a great receiving Option as well so yeah just to me with Goff it's not a clear spot So don't have a great appetite For it, kind of like you mentioned, right? Yeah. All right, JL, thank you so much for all the research. Thank you for hanging out with us.

We genuinely, genuinely appreciate it. This is literally our pleasure. We get to hang out and talk football with other like-minded degenerates. I love this as much as I love anything on my schedule yeah it's the best that's the best connor not our corner but connor also wants to know about damien harris over 48 and a half rushing yards in the snow monday night yeah projected wind i don't think it's going to snow during game time there's a chance to get some snow before the game there you know obviously there's a little bit of a backfield duo there now

with the Patriots with Ramondre Stevenson. Patriots do have a fairly large advantage in the trenches there as far as running the football. That's probably something they're going to lean on trying to leverage. Let me find our number here. Yeah, we have these guys right next to each other in projections here. We have Damian Harris at 54 yards. So again, slightly over what this number is not a bettable edge or my vantage points

again, considering that we're basically splitting 24 rushes between the two of these guys here. So Stevenson's right there, right behind him. Any thoughts there, Alex? Yeah, I think you summed it up really well. I'm not too terrified of this matchup, despite what some of the numbers suggest with the Bills. The Patriots will be able to run the ball effectively

versus them. In my opinion, they can probably run the ball effectively against almost any team. So, yeah, I'm not afraid from a matchup point, but you brought up the great point in that Ramondre Stevenson has really ascended into nearly a 50-50 split in the backfield. He's looked very good.

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me whatsoever to see close to a split in touches. So, yeah, you're probably going to get a discounted rate on Stevenson, who, in my opinion, probably offers a little more upside right now from an explosiveness standpoint. They're still bullish on Damian Harris, but, yeah, I'd probably be looking more at Stevenson if the number's 10 or 12 yards lower. Yeah, I agree. be looking more at Stevenson if the number's, you know, 10 or 12 yards lower. Yeah, I agree.

Not a, not a bettable edge. And maybe again, it's, we're Monday night. Maybe we have a better feel for weather come Monday afternoon and maybe something happens there and, you know, there's a better, a better line that pops out. So don't be, don't hesitate to wait a little bit on those, especially when there's weather. It's something that we need to, you know to be worried about now that we're in December, taking action too, too early when weather could very much get in the way. Andy just spent some time in the garden as well, cutting down a Christmas tree.

Love it. Good for you, Andy. Happy holidays to you and your family. Get that nice natural smell of the tree. Fake trees, I can't do the fake trees. Love having a nice real tree in the yard. We have different trees in my garden, but we cut them down as well. Those you burn, you don't want to burn the Christmas tree.

You just want to be very careful. But, yeah, either way, it's a win-win. Ideally, you cut them both down. You burn one, you don't burn the other. But you enjoy the twinkle on the one after burning the other uh patrick wants to know about cole commets uh 38 and a half receiving yards he has a lean here it looks like on the over we have cole commit at 38 yards uh that would be a no for me patrick uh any action here for you alex yeah i tend to agree as well ryan uh yeah just i think that's an efficient number for him yeah and again i think he's playing i haven't seen i know he missed

practice earlier in the week um kind of a depleted club there you can make the case that i guess andy dalton helps him more than fields does i don't know i mean we haven't really seen that actually though i think he's been equally as productive with fields. So I was anticipating that he'd have a little bit – obviously we're dealing with very small samples here. Sure. So that could easily change. But, yeah, I was anticipating his target share to increase with Dalton,

which hasn't been the case. So I'm not necessarily sure that Dalton is uh better quarterback for him so yeah thinking about the you know arizona they have really athletic linebackers in great uh safeties isaiah simmons yeah guys that could end up on commit in that situation it's not a great you know hand in the dirt take there for you but yeah it's it's it's a tough matchup i think antonio gives an over three and a half receptions this came out at two and a half i got crushed really quickly three and a half is probably plus money in most spots again caught seven balls and seven targets last week that is really a one game sample and i'm encouraged by it but there's so much variance in these

running back receiving prop numbers both in terms of volume of catches and yards but any thoughts on Gibson I know we're obviously both bullish on him yeah both bullish on him a little more as a rusher but yeah I do expect a healthy workload it's an over or no play as far as I'm concerned I can't imagine betting that under I would watch out a little bit for Wendell Smallwood. Obviously, he's not going to play anywhere close to the amount of snaps as JD McKissick does, but he does have some receiving chops. I could see him eating a little bit into some of the passing work

because I do anticipate just a monster workload, at least especially in early downs for Gibson. They're going to have to mix in another back here and there. So yeah, Smallwood could get some of that hurry up offense third down work. So yeah, lean over three and a half seems pretty efficient though. Yeah, we're projecting 1.2 receptions for Smallwood. So again, that's probably at least two targets. So, again, that's enough to be concerned that he has an impact there. Jared Patterson we're projecting for 17.5 rushing yards.

So, again, if you can find a Patterson number anywhere out there, like 12.5 or something, get down on it for Connor, okay? In memory of Connor. Our fallen soul. God rest his soul. Take it as if you can. A loadmeister wants to know, Madison, most rushing yards moved to minus 140 after he placed it.

He's out here moving lines. So, all right. Podcast listeners, I'm sorry. You lost it. It's dead. This is a lesson learned. First of all, watch the show. Second, and more importantly,

subscribe and get in our Discord. You would have got this at plus 105 today, and now it's probably dead. I still like it at minus 140. I do too, but come on. It's hard to swallow when you know that it was plus 105 two hours ago.

So I get that, but I'd still play it there. Yeah. And again, maybe people will continue to watch it later tonight. By the time you listen on Sunday afternoon. Minus 40 could be a great value. It could be minus 200. It should have probably been minus 200, honestly. It probably should have been minus 200.

Really, it should. Justin wants to know about Ole Miss Zachchius over 23.5 receiving yards. Alex, anything on the top there while I dig up his projection? No. It's hard to get behind, yeah, just tertiary options in the Atlanta offense that struggle, to say the least to me it's just hard to look anywhere outside of kind of you know uh Pitts Patterson uh and then fading some players like Russell Gage here or there but yeah I don't have a strong take on it yeah we have his projection

at 33 but again when we're dealing with such small numbers, those projections can get really skewed. And the one thing we've been talking about for months is that Tama Bay has this really stout run defense, and if you're going to attack them, it is through the air. The reality is that they are turning the corner as far as some of the passing defensive metrics as well. Made a massive, massive improvement in the secondary as far as some of the passing defensive metrics as well and they're starting made a massive massive improvement in the secondary huge they were like at the bottom three and pretty much every single defensive pass metric now they're like top 10 and everything the turnaround has been incredible actually yep and they're getting healthy they got bodies coming

back so yeah i mean i just would be this is not a matchup to target whatsoever if you're looking at like wide receivers and quarterbacks this is a matchup to avoid if anything or earlier in the season we were trying to get every piece of overaction from pretty much any wide receiver that was facing off against Tampa Bay not the case whatsoever yeah and if you haven't already listened to our Wednesday show I highly recommend it we had Ben Solek from the Ringer on the show, and the guy just knows football. It was talking really about this matchup, about how the Falcons offensive line is built. And they're built small and athletic for speed. And it was part of the design of Thomas Dimitrov, the previous general manager, and they're a little undersized.

And when they go up against fronts like Tampa, they are in big, big trouble. They get manhandled. We saw it in a very similar way with the Patriots who kind of run a very uncommon nowadays, heavy front with big bodies. And they're just undersized when you're dealing with, you know, you're losing 25, 30 pounds across the board up front, that becomes a problem. So you're going to start to see the pocket collapse. This is not a great passing offense. Like it's just going to be a bad spot for, for the Falcons. And, you know, you don't want to be hoping that a dude catches a, you know,

prayer yards in the fourth quarter, they get you over the hump of 23 and a half yards. All right. That wraps us up for the questions here. It's time to move on to producer Sal's time. Again, Sal has been absolutely crushing with the player prop tool bet of the week. This is, again, using our prop tool that is part of a subscription. If you have a betting sub with us at 444. So, Sal, it is your time, my man.

Let's get to the bet of the week. All right here. Absolutely. Love it. Tom Brady. Oh, this is great. Sal's dying here.

We got the emojis uh on fan duel we got a half a yard projection for tom brady uh for rushing yards our projections at five and a half so we are very bullish on this half yard number for tom brady again this is this is something that people get down on every week they love this br Brady number. You see Twitter explode every single time. Alex, thoughts on Tom Brady? I'm ready to make this a 10-unit play. Just blindly tail Sal because he's winning. Yep.

So, yeah, you see the emojis. I think those are worth a couple units. Yeah. You don't want to die. You need a Brady. There we go. 44.4 unit play. I would agree.

Yeah, you want to empty the clip for this. We see the emojis. We've got four emojis, so the synergy there is real with four emojis. Four letters and rolling on the floor laughing that's you know more reason to be behind this uh the threshold is four yards some people might say so yeah he gets four yards he could go over this four rushing attempts you know there's just so many different fours so i think that to me this is a 44.4 unit play this is getting really deep here. I love it. You want to make sure you get a Brady rush at some point, a scramble.

Otherwise, you're going to die to the kneel down at the end of the game. He also runs a 44.440 as well. Yes, he does. He does. And I am fairly certain he is 44. 44 years old. So just put it out there. All right, that was Sal.

He's still messaging me today. He's like, I got a prop. I cannot stop laughing at this prop. I cannot believe that this is like popping at the top of our model. So we wanted to share that one with us. But again, that is not Sal's official play. Sal has an official play. We want to tail the official play because this one always hits.

This one was for the lulls. This is all for the S&Gs. Sal hit us with the real prop bet of the week. Okay. Derek Carr. We got passing yards on Carr.

What do we think about Derek Carr here? Projections at 290. The line here is 268.5. This is minus 115 on DraftKings. Yeah, I looked at this as well. My projections also had a significant edge, had him in the 290s. I think our projections share some similar traits. I was a little reluctant without Darren Waller in the lineup.

Just, you know, obviously we know there's no Henry Ruggs. Is there quite enough there? But, yeah, he's been really good, actually, over the last few weeks. He's throwing the ball a ton. So, yeah, I'd lean over on it. Or yeah, I like it as a play. Still, I've been waiting for it to not be the case. They still lead the league in explosive pass rate on the season.

Again, to your point, like I feel the same way without Waller. That's a little dicey, but to Sal's point, we were reluctant on Mac Jones last week and that bad boy hit uh very easily so again sal is uh onto something here he's got uh if it's not cordial patterson he seems to be leaning on a quarterback props so sal hit last week mac jones as well if i'm not mistaken yep i was just saying yeah we and we were like oh i don't know and uh yeah he cashed that uh gleefully with a text probably around you know midway through the third quarter he was all you know printing there so we need to we need to get in here and uh and tail sal blindly until we

need to give sal some kudos because yeah he has been on fire yeah Yeah. This is a good one, folks. So, all right. That wraps us up this week. Again, we greatly appreciate this time that we share together. Again, don't forget to check out all of Alex's stuff. You guys all do already at PropStars on Twitter. Again, sign up for a betting sub. Alex is going to be doing an NBA article for us. And you're going to want to take advantage of that because he doesn't miss in the

NBA either. So want to get in those streets. We are coming with that soon. So Connor, we miss you. Hopefully we will have you back. We will be a, you know, get back to a dirty threesome next week. So for Alex, I'm Ryan. Enjoy your weekend. Good luck, everybody.