Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 14 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: December 11, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick. In this week's episode, Connor, Ryan, and Alex discuss their top Week 14 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 14 Prop Drop Intro 5:20 Connor Prop No. 1 7:00 Ryan Prop No. 1 8:03 Alex Prop No. 1 12:52 Connor Prop No. 2 14:51 Ryan Prop No. 2 17:24 Alex Prop No. 2 19:42 Connor Prop No. 3 21:52 Ryan Prop No. 3 24:11 Alex Prop No. 3 27:11 Connor Prop No. 4 29:43 Ryan Prop No. 4 31:14 Alex Prop No. 4 33:51 Props Betting Cards Recap 35:21 Viewer Props Q + A 1:12:18 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 1:15:55 Week 14 Prop Drop Outro 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, the Prop Drop show. Absolutely love it. Prop Drop presented by Winbet. Download the WinBet app today. Enter our promo code 444 to receive a risk-free $1,000 bet. I am Ryan Noonan, joined by two of my favorite fellow Prop D gens. First, a big welcome back to my boy, Connor Allen. Connor, we've missed you the last few weeks. It did not feel the same without you. We continue to crush without you, but it feels whole. Alex knows, like, you know, we have the set list.

We want to play all the songs. The folks want to hear the hits. And sometimes we're limited. We can only play the acoustics. You know, maybe we're a little light on the vocals. We got the whole band back together. We can play everything today, buddy. Welcome back.

Thanks, man. It was like a void, you know, in my life for the last two weeks i felt like a little bit empty inside but i like how you're you're playing nice now for the people but you know pre-show you're like god i've been crushing it without you like stay the stay the hell away from our show you know that so that's what i got pre-show now for the people you're playing nice you know i like it i you know i like the vibes dude and appreciate the welcome back though well i won 4-0 last week. That's a fact. But, I mean, one of my biggest character flaws is that I actually enjoy you as a person. I enjoy doing this with you. This is our fourth year doing this together.

So it does feel strange when you're not here. So, yeah, I don't know if there's correlation or causation around your absence, but I'll take the 4-0 week. Hopefully we do it again. Hopefully we all do it. Also joined, as always, by our boy Propstars, Alex, my friend. What is going on? What is up, Ryan Connor?

I sorely missed you, buddy. It is great to see you back. Ryan and I held it down without you. We had to get a little bit creative. Ryan was on drums, also providing vocals. I was playing bass and guitar, one hand on each. So we held it down. We are back.

We are happy to have you as the third cog and very important part of this holy trinity that is the Prop Drop Show. So I am elated to see you. I missed you. I know the viewers all missed you as well. We miss those Davis Mills unders. We miss all the unders. So, yeah, we are happy to have you back in the fold, buddy. Much love.

Much love, guys. Well, just a reminder, wherever you are listening or watching, we ask that you do us a favor, subscribe so you don't miss a show. We have two shows here for Move the Line each week, both available in podcast form and then also on our youtube page over at four for four football uh those links are below in the show notes no matter where you are consuming this again uh props tonight on wednesday connor and i bring on someone from the industry we go game by game get a little bit more hand in the dirt, football wise, breaking down the angles from a betting perspective, more sides and totals. We're going to go around the horn here, share four props each. And then at the end,

we are going to take your questions. We have a handful from Twitter from this afternoon. Thanks as always for those. And then also in the chat, we hope you guys continue to fill it up and we will handle anything that you have, things that you're considering. You want to get our thoughts on things you've already fired at, whatever that may be. And then we will round it out as always

with Producer Sal's player prop tool of the week. Also want to remind you to take advantage of our subscription. Again, you can find this in the show notes as well. Betting sub at four for four right now is $44, which is insane. $44. We can make that money for you back tonight in a big, big way, regardless of what your unit size is. That's going to take you through the end of February. It's wonky. I'm sorry. I wish it was better.

I wish we had this nailed. We don't yet, but we're going to have a rolling year annual subscription thing eventually connor and i are pushing for it as of now uh it will take you through the end of february you'll have to start back up in in march that could take you through the end of the year but even from now until the end of february that's going to get you the rest of the nfl season we are launching our nba stuff very soon The prop tool you're going to see here at the end of the show. We have live for our Discord right now for the NBA. Prop Explorer tool. We got lots of great stuff. We're going live with that and content on the NBA side here on the 20th.

So next week that is going to include a Wednesday NBA article from your boy Alex. If you want props from Alex on Wednesdays, the actual busiest day of the NBA slate every week, Wednesdays, Alex can only get them at 4-4-4. I mean, that's enough, right? You want props, Wednesday picks, 4-4-4. Jump on the show notes

to take advantage of that. We've got golf coming back in January. So yeah, there's worthwhile. Again, that gets you access to everything on the site too so you want dfs dude you want to play you know early best ball stuff get in there let's dance let's get back at it props week 14 connor we wouldn't do it any other way man you're back in the fold give us your first pick of the week you Yeah, let's ride. Derek Carr kicking it off. I mean, what better way to start it off with a quarterback under? Derek Carr under 260 and a half passing yards is available at BetMGM. I think it's a 258 and a half now on draft games,

which is still more than playable. This Chiefs defense is a new unit at this point. They're now playing at home at Arrowhead in the second matchup of a divisional game this season. So they've already played against the Raiders once. They held Derek Carter. I think it was exactly 261 passing yards. But at this point, the Chiefs defense, the last few weeks, I mean, has been outstanding. So in weeks one through seven, they were 31st in EPA, you know, like really struggling. They were one of the worst defenses in the league. Now weeks eight through 13, they've been third in defensive EPA.

And now they're at home. You know, the weather's starting to get colder. It's kind of becoming a little bit difficult for offenses to take advantage of this team at Arrowhead. And now you're drawing a Raiders team without Darren Waller, who was just announced out today. So meaning their top receiving options are Hunter Renfro, Zay Jones, Brian Edwards, Deshaun Jackson. I mean, this is just a really bad spot, I think, for Derek Carr,

considering all the moving factors here. I think he ends up closer to 200 yards than 260, to be entirely honest. I think that he'll probably end up closer to that 220, 230 range. I like this under here down to 250, and I just think it's a great spot to take a QB under. Yeah, I tailed it. Really outside of that Thanksgiving blimp where they kind of showed up against the cowboys you know they've been really struggling and you take waller out again

uh absolutely love that play so that is right on brand only way for connor to come back would be for a uh for under on a quarterback so let's get it my first is in the same game i'm gonna go with a uh travis kel Kelsey over five and a half receptions still out there on draft Kings. I think at minus one 35 in some places, it's been obviously a down year for Kelsey a little bit in relations, you know, the seasons past of course, but I mean, he's still a massive, massive part of this offense. I think we're going to buy the dip here. We typically see Kelsey hung at like six and a half, seven and a half at times. He has topped this number at a 70% clip over the past two seasons against the

Raiders specifically a very nice spot for tight ends. Kelsey has three straight games with eight receptions, including back in week 10 last time they met. And that kind of was a turning point. I think for the Casey offense to Raiders are 30th in Football Outsiders DVOA metric against the tight end position. They are allowing, we've seen 8.2 targets per game, allowing 71.8 yards to the position.

I think we're going to go back to the well. I think we've got another 7-8 balls here for Kelsey, and we're getting at a little bit of a discounted price. So give me Kelsey over 5.5 catches. Alex, what is your first bet yeah i'm gonna actually stick in this game as well and i am gonna go on the raiders side of things and that will be josh jacobs over 86 and a half rushing plus receiving yards i saw those at minus 115 on draft kings uh yeah i agree with a lot of what Connor is talking about regarding kind of Carr and the struggles that the Raiders passing game has been having.

But one silver lining has been that of Josh Jacobs. He has long, pretty much his career, he's been kind of absent from the passing game. But he now appears to be turning into a receiving weapon for this Las Vegas team. That may be partly due to the fact that we don't have Darren Waller in the lineup. Obviously, Henry Ruggs has not been with the team for five-plus weeks now. And it was always strange to me, having watched Jacobs in college, he was a very, very, very good receiving running back at Alabama. I expected that to translate into the NFL. He's kind of been used

as a first and second down kind of, you know, workhorse grinder, not really utilized as a pass catching back. But that has changed. His college stats, looking closely at them, were absolutely phenomenal at Alabama's, particularly receiving. So yeah, it's good to see him kind of getting more work. I think it's obviously helping him quite a bit. John Gruden just did not view him as the receiving back that it was expected to be. But this coaching staff appears to be more interested in using him as a receiver.

Also Kenyon Drake is now out for the season. Jalen Richard is possibly out for this week with COVID. I'm not sure exactly on his status, but I believe he's out. So, yeah, Jacobs has upside to deliver as a three-down workhorse this week. He handled a season-high 86% snap share against Washington. Peyton Barber will be active, but that's only to mix in really on early downs. So I expect Jacobs to, again, receive a 70- plus percent snap rate with a dedicated receiving role as well, which is why I like the combo prop also kind of protects you a bit against game script or game flow in the event that Kansas

City, you know, kind of piles on a big lead. So either way, I do expect him to be heavily involved with the game plan. Furthermore, looking at the Chiefs' defense in this matchup, we saw Javante Williams go for nearly 200 combined scrimmage yards last week versus the Chiefs. So, yeah, the Chiefs also, you guys mentioned, they're a lot better at stopping opposing passing attacks. They struggle on the ground against ground games. So, yeah, I believe they rank 26th in rushing DVOA. I'm very bullish on the way that ground games. So yeah, I believe they rank 26 in rushing DVOA. I'm very bullish on the way that they've been incorporating Jacobs into the pass and gave

us 20 targets over the last three weeks. I also have him projected at 109 yards, which is a really nice edge looking at an 86 and a half yard combined rushing and receiving number. So yeah, I really like this prop quite a bit. I talked about this on our wednesday show to connor before the number was out it was something that i want to look for this week and then was bummed when it came out at like 94 and a half and then i think some groups took some pretty strong positions on the under and now we're back into like where i thought it

would be so um i actually haven't even looked at it i didn't even know that it had moved this much but to see it back into the the mid eighties makes a lot of sense. Season routes run on the sea are for, for him this year, Jacob's 40% last week, 80%. He's targeted on 11% of his routes run on the season last week, 24%. So again, like that, that's part of the appeal here. James in chat wants to know our thoughts on the rushing yard line. I think Alex did a good job at the end there.

So part of why there's the appeal here is that the passing work, if it stays even somewhere in that same spot is we're kind of game script proof where if we get into a spot where they absolutely curb stomp the Raiders, we don't have to worry about Jacobs grinding out rushes here. We can get that yards through the passing game, which again seems like an increase in work with all the injuries there, especially with Drake out. So I would lean there on the combined yards, like Alex said,

than the 57 and a half on the rushing. So good play. Interesting. There's opportunities here where smart groups take an under position and drive a number down and then unfortunately people want to get in on that and they come in late and they continue to tail it because they think the under is the play and they're betting the pick not necessarily the number and like people keep hammering it at like 89 88 when the play was really trying to short it five six yards higher and now we can buy back at you know 84 and a half we're seeing out there

on fan duel so interesting play uh connor what is your second one yeah my second one is actually i think i'm a little bit of a surprise because i um you know i'm tailing our you know i'm going the opposite way here so brandon cook's over four.5 receptions, minus 130 right now in DK, and our under king, my king himself, Davis Mills, is back at quarterback. But I am taking one of the receiver's overs. And it felt a little weird, but when Mills is in and Cooks is playing, he is just constantly targeted. If we look at his game so far with Mills at quarterback,

week three, he had nine for 112 on 11 targets. Week four, he had five for 47 on seven targets against a great, very good Buffalo secondary. And then week five, three for 23 on five targets against also another strong New England secondary. Week six, nine for 89 on 13 targets against Indy. Week seven, five for 21 on seven targets against Arizona. Week eight, five or 21 on seven targets. It's Arizona week eight, six for 83 on six targets against the Rams. I mean, those are some awesome secondaries that Davis Mills has played against. And it actually almost makes me like reconsider like my position because I know the Davis Mills are really bad, but like we were cashing unders, you know, pretty much that entire,

you know, time against any reasonably good secondary. But now he's playing against a secondary in the Seahawks who are 26 and past even CBOA, dead last and passing success rate allowed. I think that this number should personally be at like five and a half even money. So four and a half at minus 130, I think is a good bit short. I would also consider playing Davis Mills over.

I can't do it, hashtag know, hashtag for the brand. But, you know, I think that that's probably actually the right side here. But I think Cook's receptions here is just like the most short. So I like the over here on four and a half. So weird to see you taking not only, you know, a receiver over, but a Texans receiver over is like it feels. I got another gross one coming up after. So just just wait.

I've seen the sheet. I'm where I know what's coming. We have, we had a heads up here. So I'm going to stay on brand and I'm going to go, it's tight end week for me. I'm going to go with the absolute alpha at the position, Rob Gronkowski over 50 and a half receiving yards. This is minus one Oh five at points bets. This is available in some spots earlier at 49 and a half receiving yards. This is minus one Oh five at points bets. Uh, this is available in some spots earlier at 49 and a half, but with a like juice around one 21, 25, um, our boy Travis in discord, shout out to Travis, uh, did some work on like the value of it. And you're

better off taking the extra yard, uh, at minus one Oh five, then taking it for a yard shorter at the current juice so if that's still out there points bet definitely take a look at that i think you can make a case that outside of brady no one really means more of the bucks than gronkowski actually according to the athletic the epa per play rate with gronk in the lineup which is 12.2 per 100 snaps which is insane um 4.8 without him. That's basically the difference between the number one offense in the league and the 13th ranked offense in the league. He has been a – dude took a year off and did some CBD

and just chilled the hell out. And he's like basically 85% of the dude that retired or before he retired, like he's back. He's been an absolute stud. 62.3 yards per game so far this year. He's actually top this number in six of the seven games that he's played. The Bucs run a ton of split safety looks. Very similar to what the Colts do.

And Gronk torched the Colts for 123 back in week 12. So again, we got a really close game. High total. We're expecting, you know expecting a ton of points here. I love the show. Actually, ESPN does an NFL matchup show. They put it on at like 4 a.m. It's like Matt Bowden and Greg Cosell.

It's fantastic. After I put this out there, they had a clip on Twitter about how they thought that Gronk was a massive part, major mismatch in this play this week. So confirmation bias for me, give me all the Gronk in the spot over 50 and a half. He's going to have a nice, nice day. That show is awesome.

I love that show. Watch it. It's just like so good. I mean, I don't know. I'm a big fan. I don't really watch it enough, but yeah, I don't even have cable. I'm, you know, a zoomer.

I cut the cable. Yeah. I'm old. I have, you know, a DV it's on at 4 a.m. and I don't even have cable. I'm a Zoomer. I cut the cable. Yeah, I'm old. I have a DVR box still, so I record it. And even my wife likes it because she finds it interesting because they're little X and Os. They stop and they show different things, and you learn more about football with those dudes. And Matt Bowden, he lives in Elmhurst.

He lives right here by us. Does he? Yeah. Anyway, Alex, bring us home here in number two. Matt Bowden's like he lives in Elmhurst he lives right here by us which is does he yeah anyway uh Alex uh bring us home here in uh number two yeah there is a rumor too that Gronkowski may or may not have been seen in my garden a few times during that year off I do believe that has some uh you know Lazarus pit effects where it can bring you back to life a little bit so yeah yeah I'm not gonna confirm or deny but a very good chance that he was in the garden receiving potential treatment,

which has definitely contributed to this reclamation project, if that's what you want to call it. So I'm going to stick with tight ends as well. Not only am I sticking with tight ends, I am running back a play that we played last week. Couldn't help myself. The value's there. Had to go it.

It is a bit juiced, though, but I'm sticking with it. It's my only juiced play of the week, and that is James O'Shaughnessy over 2.5 receptions. Saw this at minus 145. Listen, this guy ran around on 70% of dropbacks in Week 13. He had a 26% target rate. That type of usage makes him a very attractive play despite operating in an offense that is pretty much broken. It is a small sample, but he has a 19% target rate this year.

That is precisely the same as Dan Arnold, who is routinely seeing a four and a half reception line week in and week out. So this Jaguars offense, it doesn't matter who is playing tight end. Their tight end is essentially functioning as their wide receiver one in the offense. So it's more of a bet on the tight end position in the Jaguars offense than it is kind of player dependent. Yeah, he also led the team in targets last week with six. This is just, yeah, Jacksonville's offense is a tight end funnel. We saw it with Dan Arnold. Now it's O'Shaughnessy. It just creates a ton of targets for the tight ends.

He's likely to have an 80% route rate. So, yeah, I just think this number probably should be three and a half. He's sticking with it at two and a half. He was lucky not to hit this last week, in my opinion. I hate to use the word luck, but it did factor in, in my opinion. So, yeah yeah i'm going back to the well with o'shaughnessy over two and a half receptions i like it i like it's tight end week here man connor you gotta get a tight end play here you know i know i missed the memo i don't know i was i was you know i i took gross receiver overs and quarterback unders i'm saving my favorite quarterback under for last though so i'm going

to go with russell gage over four and a half receptions. Another one minus one 30 here at draft Kings. So Gage has played in five games without Calvin Ridley's this season. He has more than four and a half receptions in four of those five, all except for the week 10 dud from the Falcons where they, you know, Matt Ryan had 20, whatever, 21 pass attempts. Josh Rosen came in and they were just absolutely dismantled by the Cowboys. He's gone over that in every single other game with, you know, nine, eight, seven, and 13 targets in those games. And now they're playing against a Carolina team that is specifically good

against the tight end position. And so I think that they were able to lock up Kyle Pitts and kind of force Matt Ryan until checking down to his, you know, safety blanket, which is Russell Gage. So I think that in this spot here lock up Kyle Pitts and kind of force Matt Ryan into checking down to his safety blanket, which is Russell Gage. So I think that in this spot here, I think the number, again, is just it's a full reception too short. That should be like probably five and a half and even money or maybe a little bit juice towards the under. I think that that is a better line. So I think at four and a half, you're getting plenty of value in that. Like he more often than not, he's going to hit five or six receptions that you know four or three so i like the over here a good bit yeah i like this

play as well uh i'm fading kyle pitts this week i think there's a very good chance that we see stefan gilmore uh shadowing kyle pitts this week uh which again would kind of boost gauge even further uh gilmore has been phenomenally as close to a 90 grade on PFF this season. He'd be in the defensive player of the year mix had he not missed the first six weeks of the season. He's playing some phenomenal football. A couple of the fact Carolina is exceptional defending tight ends. Yeah, I think Gage is an excellent play this week. We've also seen him routinely smash this number recently serving as Matt Ryan's security blanket. So, yeah, I love that, Connor.

Yeah, when we saw Gilmore, that was his first game active, and he asked for pits. He asked for that assignment in that first game. So I'd imagine they go right back to the well, take him out, and make Ole Miss, Zaccheaus, and Gage beat them, which is going to be an interesting watch. I like the under in that game it's continuing to get juice it's a little it's dropping a little too much now but you know 42 and a half 43 earlier in the week made a lot of sense so uh i got one more tight

end play i'm gonna leave it i got three out of four tight end plays this week i'm gonna stay in the same game as connor i got chuba hubbard under 76 and a half combined rushing and receiving yards. I know prop stars is on this one as well. This is currently minus 115 on DraftKings. I think it's out there still right in that mix for the most part. Basically when McCaffrey hurt his hammy back in September, Hubbard slid right into basically an every down roll. There was really no one else. He really wasn't great.

I mean, he was solid, but not really spectacular. It opened the door for Amir Abdullah to kind of eat into Hubbard's role, especially on passing downs. And then McCaffrey came back in week nine. They both really were, you know, regular, you know, back to the bench where they belong. Now, McCaffrey out again. And the books basically hung a line that's assuming that we're going to have like 80% snap share of Hubbard again and I just don't think that's going to be the case back in week 12 when we saw the Panthers last when McCaffrey went down we saw a split down the middle with Hubbard and Abdullah as far as the rushing work goes and Abdullah dominated the passing game work we didn't see anything in the passing game for Hubbard so I imagine he sees a little bit here moving forward. But again, he was out snapped 48 to 21% in that game. Again, the negative game script, but still like,

this is probably more of a 50-50 split, even if it's a 60-40 split. In that scenario, Hubbard's still losing a little bit of like rushing work to Cam, right? He's going to get cucked at the goal line. There's going to be some of that stuff. So like Hubbard's best case scenario is a game script where the panthers get up and are running

heavily and even then he's kind of losing to cam too so there's just so many outs for this here no passing game work cam eating him up so i know this got up into like the low 80s earlier some you know sharp places got it i still think it's a play in the mid-70s. So 76 and a half under for Chuba Hubbard. Yeah, I think both of you took it too. Yeah, we both tailed this, right, Alex? Yes, I did as well. So, yeah, I love that the Holy Trinity are all backing this Chuba Hubbard under. So, yeah, this is a great spot, in my opinion, to fade him.

It's a place to be, you know, whole crew back together playing the hits. Chuba's going to end up with like 40 combined and we're just going to party. I can't wait. Points back together playing the hits we're gonna end up with like 40 combined and we're just gonna party i can't wait points back in the garden in the garden uh alex number three yeah so i'm going with a bit of a chalky one this number has been interesting i've seen it kind of uh move in all directions today but i couldn't lay off once i uh kind of looked in a little bit closer at it and that is alvin Kamara over 66 and a half rushing yards. Saw this at minus 115 at DraftKings. No Mark Ingram, no Ty Montgomery.

There's a very good chance that we're going to see Kamara get back to that 20 plus carry of role that he was consistently receiving early on in the season. He was also close to playing last week. I saw some very encouraging comments from Sean Payton saying that, yeah, had that been a playoff game, a very good chance that Kamara would have been active. He practiced in full this week coming into the game as a full participant, I believe at least today, which is also a very encouraging sign.

We get the tastiest of matchups against a Jets defense that ranks 31st in EPA allowed per rush, 32nd in run defense grade. The Jets schedule has also been easy in terms of rushing matchups. So this is just by any metric, an absolutely terrible rushing defense, just overall defense from the Jets. Yeah, this is just a great spot versus Kamara versus the Jets. I think Taysom Hill's also going to help. I think he's going to open up some additional running lanes for him, similar kind of way that Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson do in those offenses where we see, you know, Miles Sanders and, you know, whatever backs Baltimore decides to deploy. So yeah, I think Kamara is very likely to get between 18, 23, or even possibly

more. The depth behind him is pretty much non-existent, like I mentioned, with no Mark Ingram, no Ty Montgomery. So yeah, I think he's getting a very big workload versus a terrible, terrible Jets rushing defense. This number at 66 and a half was just too low in my opinion. So yeah, I'm riding with it. I think it's a great a great spot yeah we went back and forth in the discord about this one uh this week just you know concerned about just there's so many reasons that you want to take the over so like i'm i'm sold there too there are the matchup is great there's some offensive line issues up front of the saints but like it's the jets you know that's what like it keeps coming down to like it's the jets. They know that's what, like it keeps coming down to like, it's the jets and there's no one else there. And his quarterback has a bad foot and he's got mallet finger.

And like, it could just be handoff after handoff. Apparently Kamara was close last week. So yeah. Good, you know, good job selling us there. I mean,

I will take my chances. If you're telling me that Kamara is, you know, X percent, very, very strong percent to get 20 plus touches versus 20 plus carries, excuse me, versus the Jets. The line is at 66 and a half yards. If he loses on that scenario, I'll live with it personally.

So, yeah. Yeah, it makes sense. All right. We have one more each. You guys are awesome. Keep firing off in the comment section. I promise we will make our way through all of it. So we will go through.

We each have one more to give. And, again, we are bringing it home. Connor with the most on-brands pick to wrap us up. And, again, keep firing off here in the Discord. I'm sorry, in the messages here. Connor, number four. Yeah, I mean, you guys thought that Davis Mills had a big neck. We're talking about Mike Glennon, the giraffe himself.

I'm taking the under 212 and a half passing yards. He threw for 187 last week against the Dolphins, now draws the Chargers. The Chargers are run funnel defense. They've struggled against the run, but a lot better against the pass. Ninth in pass defense DVOA. Seventh in pass rush win rate. Sixth in adjusted sack rate. I think that they're going to make Mike Lennon's life miserable. They're also, you know, I think that Chris Harris is

training towards playing after hitting the COVID list early in the week. So I think that he's in a good spot there for that defense. And the Giants, I mean, they're not going to be with their rookie wide receiver. I don't know why I'm blanking on his name, but he's going to be out. There he is, Tony. There he is, Tony. There you go. Darius Toney. And Kenny Galladay and Sterling Shepard are both listed as questionable. I think that they play, but they're probably going to be banged up, not at 100%.

So you're looking at a terrible offensive line, a banged up wide receiver in court with Mike Glennon against a good Chargers defense. I think that he is going to be way under 200. I think he's going to be at 150. Potential point spending opportunity here. I think that this under is to be way under 200. I think he's going to be at 150. Potential point spending opportunity here. I think that this under is a great, great look. I just don't think that Mike Lennon at this point in his career

is not a starting caliber quarterback in the NFL. He's done nothing to suggest otherwise in the last two years. So I'm very comfortable with this under here in this spot. It's a good one. It's one I'm going to have to get on there too. So could be a points bet. I don't know. Are they going to put that out there for us?

They typically will by the time Sunday morning. They will, but it depends on how much they adjust the numbers. Sometimes they're like, oh, the number is 212. Chase Claypool's longest reception prop was like 21, and their points bet thing was like 38 was the over. I'm like, that's not even – I mean, we're not that fishy. Yeah, come on, points bet. They took away team totals, like the actual, like projected team total that

every other book has out there. Points by just skips it. They don't even give you that option. They give you like the somewhat insignificant next number at like minus one 25 or something like that. It's like, I can't, I can't find the 17 and a half. You just want to give me 16 and a half and 18 and a half. Like I don't want to pay for the 18 and a half.

Like, yeah, they know what they're doing. Points bet has been anti-fun lately. And we're going to change that, you know, hopefully bring points back. Yeah.

Make points back. Great. Again, I wasn't going to go there, but I appreciate you making the comment. All right. I'm going to bring home the tight end week here. Unofficials, I didn't know it was tight end week.

I thought national tight end week was a couple weeks ago, but it is week 14 here on the Prop Drop Show Move the Line edition. Austin Hooper, over three and a half receptions. This is still out there at plus money. So absolutely love this here. Njoko has been ruled out. He's accounted for 16% of the targets for the past two weeks. A large percent of his route runs he's been targeted.

Harrison Bryant also out with a high ankle sprain. This is a team that loves to run two tight end sets. They are down to just one tight end. So you're basically looking at a spot where Austin Hooper is looking at 90, 95% snap rate here. He is between 54 and 70 in the past three weeks. He's just not going to be able to come off the field here. And Baltimore is as friendly as it gets against the tight ends. They are allowing the fifth most yards and fifth most targets per game to the position.

So at plus money in a spot where I kind of like the Ravens on the road here to win. I definitely think we're going to have a game where it's at least back and forth and close. I don't expect the Browns to get in a spot where they're up big and running heavy. So I think they're going to need to pass a little bit. And what are we dealing with here? Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, the ghost of Jarvis Landry. Like I'm not really concerned about really anything that Cleveland has from a passing standpoint so Hooper plus money over three and a half receptions is one of my favorites of the week so Alex bring us home and number four for you yeah last but not least

I've been going running backs pretty much besides my tight ends I'm going to stick with that theme as well I'm going with Monty David Montgomery over 58 and a half rushing yards. I'll just say minus one 15 on draft Kings. Yeah. Monty's gone over in five of eight games that he's played this season. He's averaging 70 rushing yards per game coming off of a 21 carry 90 yard, 90 rushing yard performance last week against the Cardinals. I handled 29 touches.

You only seated four carries to Cleo herbert uh he is clearly the guy that the bears really trust in this backfield i also like the fact that justin field is going to be behind center i can see the bears really running the ball even more than usual um the bears are also one of those rare teams that run the ball when they're down or when defenses are playing her bench you just terrible offense terrible offense the titans do this as well you know as a combination to protect fields uh prevent him from making turnovers and yeah just pick up some positive uh yards they'll take them any way they can get them so yeah i'm confident that in any scenario even when you know the bears are trailing 20 points potentially to the Packers,

they will continue to run the ball in the third and fourth quarters. The Packers aren't necessarily a run funnel, but they are somewhat vulnerable. They rank 23rd in EPA allowed per rush, 14th in run defense grade. They rank 27th in rushing DVOA. Yeah, the Bears, on the other hand, rank 23rd in pass rate over expected. They're likely to go run heavy this week, as long as they can get away with it. So yeah, I'm really loving Montgomery. Yeah, mentioned how committed they are to running the ball in addition to protecting

Justin Fields. So yeah, I think Monty over 58 and a half rushing yards is a great bet this week. Bears bus driver never lets the bus get cold like they just they never they never turn off the engine uh bears are trying to get out of there as fast as possible uh yeah so run that season i think that with fields back too like they clearly showed that they didn't really know what to do with them so they just like ran the ball and i think that they go right back to that um i think that this is like a big i've been looking like find the best way to attack this um i think that the number is probably playable like 65 70 honestly just because he's going to see like 15 and 20 carries um i think there was a if there's a 14 and a half or 13 and a half rushing attempts for monty i'm

definitely smashing that too i think that that was available but i didn't you know i didn't look into it enough to really feel comfortable playing it but i think that that that's a great angle thank you all right uh we will give you the rundown here in summary here we'll start with uh what do we got here connor first connor's props derrick carr under 260 and a half passing yards uh there's minus 115 at mgm brandon cooks over four and a half receptions on draftraftKings at minus 130. Also Russell Gage over at four and a half receptions as well. Same price on DraftKings. And then of course, Mike Glennon under 212 passing yards. That is available in multiple spots, minus 110 on Caesars.

My props for you here, Travis Kelsey over five and a half receptions on DraftKings, minus 135 rob gronkowski also over 50 and a half receiving yards minus 105 on points bets there are some 49 and a halves out there uh chuba hubbard under 76 and a half combined rushing and receiving is across the board at minus 115 on draft kings both the propy and connor stamp of approval there. And then Austin Hooper as well, over 3.5 receptions, plus money out there on DraftKings. And then Alex's final props as well.

Alvin Kamara, over 66.5 rushing yards, minus 115 at MGM. Montgomery as well, over 58.5 rushing yards, minus 115 on DraftKings. James O'Shaughnessy, we're going back to the well. We're going to hit it this time over two and a half receptions, a little bit of juice on draft Kings.

And then Josh Jacobs combined rushing and receiving over 86 and a half on draft Kings. The chat is telling us there are some 84 and a half out there on FanDuel. So jump into those. We have some Twitter questions we're going to run through. And then again, we continue to see these ones pop up in the chat. You guys are awesome. We will get to you there as well. So first Twitter question is from JMD. Can you discuss in-game prop betting strategies? I had a little success in small sample, betting a player who I liked, but I thought there was no value in the line. If he had no catches in the first drive, they get lucky.

He wants to know, is there any sound strategy or tips? I know Connor, we've touched on this a little bit. Like the live market itself is really soft. Like, you know, there's just a lot of volatility from book to book who shut stuff off.

When, I mean, if you have the means and the ability to watch games with books open i highly highly recommend doing so there are definitely opportunities some of my bigger plays this year have been in the live market based off of overreactions to a total on the first drive even a spread that can shift drastically just with you know a team getting into scoring position in the first drive and all of a sudden they go for a field goal, they missed a field goal. And, you know, all of a sudden you got two and a half points that, you know, differed 30 minutes ago.

So Connor, any thoughts here? Yeah. So you mentioned, I mean, you, you made great points there. I think that one of the biggest things that I noticed actually now is that, so DraftKings and FanDuel keep it pretty tight. They're pretty similar in terms of their uh whatever they're offering like their live algorithms are pretty much the same but uh the other night I was kind of looking I was like you know switching through all my tabs and phones like through the different books to look at live lines points bets lines are just like way off like they're like you know three to four pass attempts off of the live lines of DraftKings and FanD duel and you know like two like 10 to 15 yards at times like of certain players that are just like they're not even like adjusting and i don't know

what's going on there um and it's just something that you should be taking advantage of so if you if you have points bet definitely look into that but otherwise i think that the live lines as you mentioned yeah like being able to take like quarterbacks so they go down a little bit like you know that like certain teams kind of need to be like pushed into like game scripts, you know, like a team like the Bengals right now, they're going to go run heavy, like a team, you know, like the Eagles, you know, like they're going to want to go run heavy until they're forced to pass. And so if, but if you can guarantee that game script, like, you know, I think you can take receivers over, you can take passing overs, depending on what those numbers are at. So just like, those are things that I like to pay attention

to that, you know, like teams that something needs to happen that makes it not a bet pre-game but could make it a bet in game yeah and i find the same points bet to be really bad i bet sides and totals more than connor does they're also bad there too like that is they are um the slowest to move um and they will hang out numbers around key numbers more often than, than DraftKings or Fandu do as well. Chat's telling us that BetRivers is the same. Yeah. I mean, I have a hard time loading BetRivers up cause it's so painful. Can't use that app dude. Yeah. It's, but you know.

Or website. I don't even know if they have an app. Yeah. Both. It's basically mobile the same. I have money there cause I like to bet their golf a golf product. But yeah, that's about it. But Alex, any live betting action for you or any thoughts around this? Yeah, I think you guys summed it up well. Unfortunately, Oregon does not allow live betting on props. So yeah, it's not a market that I've been fortunate to really attack or explore very much.

You just fire your props and chill in the garden for the 12 o'clock games. You don't even have to be like, I'm sweating the entire time scrolling through all my apps. Very meditative process here in Oregon. We keep it as chill as possible. I'm looking forward to, in the future however, getting a little bit of that action.

For the time being, no live prop betting in Oregon. Team smell the roses. Team smell the flower this is rose city right that's right yep the rose garden back in the day another question from the awful gambler uh when you finally decide on a bet and you define your edge how do you then decide on what your bet to number is examples devante adams over 83 and a half receiving yards. Your projection would be X and you would play it to Y. Alex, any thoughts around how you determine that? Yeah, I think it's somewhat of a touch and go process. Obviously, I'm looking at my projections

coupled with just trying to figure out how big the edge is generally speaking i want to say there's something of like a five percent threshold that i sort of lean on um but yeah i think each individual case has its own uh unique sort of process or properties so yeah i don't really have a uh strict guideline that i follow as far as like, what number I will play something to, which is kind of a combination of various factors. Do you guys kind of lean on any specific strategy with that? I agree with that. I think our prop tool bakes in some of that too, to give you an understanding of the value, you know, depending on how you think the projection is, you know, bumping up. If you

think there's a massive edge in the projection where you would take it to. I think looking at our prop explorer tool as well, we can see how often a guy is going over that number and carrying it comfortably. I think to your point, I don't think there's a magic bean to take with it. I think that there are some differing factors depending on the player and the prop too. Connor, any thoughts here? Yeah, I think you just need to ree re-evaluate uh like what you consider taking it so like I just you know said that I'd play Derek Carr down to 250 like I would definitely still take Derek Carr under 250 passing yards but

like would I take it in 245 or 240 you know like probably not I think that's we're kind of pushing the edge and it's eliminating our edge so I think you have to kind of like constantly re-evaluate uh your prop at different numbers and like kind of think, you know, in a range of outcomes type of thing, type of mindset. Yeah, that's the same thing where, you know, Alex and I went on this a little bit last week where you get into this situation where there maybe a book doesn't move the line on the prop, but they start to move the juice. And then you have to start having the conversations where, OK, I like this at minus 120. Do I like it at 145? Do I like it at 150? I'd much rather have them give me another yard or two, and then I'll pay down a little bit more juice because I feel better in the projection versus what I'm going to have to lay to get the

return I want. So those are all, I don't know that there's a perfect way, but I think having a process, sticking to it and tracking it, I is really important to you know being able to understand you know what that looked like when you made the decision where your bet to number was that's something that's going to be really important to us in the nba like we're going to be actually requiring that as far as like our posted bets because the nba numbers move even like there's an nfl slate every day in the nba and those numbers move drastically when someone like Alex comes in and makes a strong position on a play. You could get it two hours later, and it looks very, very, very different. So we want to make that accessible to all of our readers and users.

So, yeah, I think tracking that process and laying it out beforehand will help you be smarter, better, and that's really the goal. AP Picks wants to uh what are our thoughts around laquan treadwell over 33 and a half receiving yards um he has has some interest in his reception prop which is not currently posted yeah i mean it's jacksonville they are giving meaningful snaps to laquan treadwell in the year of our Lord 2021. I mean, I thought he was going to be decent as coming out as a prospect. It never happens.

33 and a half. Anyone have a lean on Treadwell there? I believe he leads all Jacksonville receivers in a snap share over at least the past three or four weeks. Yeah. So he's on the field a lot he seems to be chemistry may not be the correct term but there is some relationship between him and trevor lawrence uh so yeah i have everybody on that offense besides you know we talked a lot about tight end whether it's a shaughnessy or Dan Arnold, Treadwell seems to kind of have somewhat of a defined role.

I've had the mispleasure of watching Jacksonville a lot recently because I've been playing a lot of these Dan Arnold and O'Shaughnessy props and also fading guys like Marvin Jones and stuff. And, yeah, Treadwell is honestly the one guy that kind of seems to play okay with Lauren. So, yeah, I don't hate it by any stretch of the imagination. I probably have a little more of a lean towards the receptions, depending on what the number is, just because I think the yardage is a little bit hard to account for in that offense. But, yeah, they are trying to make a concerted effort to get him the ball.

So, yeah, if you feel like you have an edge or like it, I don't hate it by any stretch of the imagination. I prefer it much to playing the over on, you know, someone like Marvin Jones or the viscous Chanel at this point. 92% routes run for Treadwell last week. 87 the week before our projections haven't been 43 yards. So there's an edge there. I would say.

Yeah. I, I don't have an appetite for it, but I understand like there's an edge and he's on the field. I don't have an appetite for it, but I understand like there's an edge and he's on the field. Um, I don't love like, you know, 17% targets per outrun is not something that really moves the needle for me, but, um, I I'm with you. Like, you know, Marvy Jones is just out there running wind sprints at this point. And, uh, LaVisca's usage is just up and down every week.

So, uh, as producer Sal called it is a blossoming romance for uh laquan treadwell and uh in lawrence there so uh he also wants to know about james robertson man ab picks the jags man what are we what are we doing um i mean i don't i don't really trust that either let me give you a projection number for us here um while the two of you massive stay away from me uh i mean, just like, I don't know. I have no faith in Urban Meyer. I mean, like he didn't even, his comments are like, he didn't even know that James Robinson wasn't getting touches.

Like, I don't know. What is he doing? I mean, is he just like, you know, clocking out right after the meetings, you know, like whatever his meetings and like, is he even going? Like, I don't even know. Like, what is he doing all day? Yeah, that team is. I have some guesses. I have some guesses. Yeah. even going? I don't even know. What is he doing all day? Yeah, that team is in shambles. I have some guesses.

I have some guesses. Yeah, I do too. Yeah, the team is in shambles from the front office down to the field. This is just a disaster of a franchise right now. It's hard to really support much, in my opinion. The tight end or the Shoshana season strictly volume um yeah i think the volume merits a play in that respect but yeah backing much or supporting much from an offensive standpoint is a very very tough sell i am bullish on james robinson i think he is uh you know an above

average starting running back in the nfl i think on other teams you know he would be a very serviceable player but yeah with this offensive line, I mean, the one thing the Jags have done somewhat competently this season is they've run the ball okay when they have decided to commit to running the ball. But those instances are few and far in between. And, yeah, the head coach just is out in la-la land, spending way too much time in someone's garden. So yeah,

hard to support him. Yeah. I don't know. Gardens. I mean, that's probably the PC way to, I'm going to stay away from that, but yeah,

this team is giving Carl's high touches. So our projections are right around the number. It's not a bettable edge from where we stand here. J four wants to know our thoughts on Alvin Kamara rushing touchdown against the Jets. Listeners of the show know my thoughts. Do you guys have thoughts on Alvin Kamara rushing touchdown? Do we know the juice on it? Not enough to bet it.

Okay. Yeah, without knowing the number, it's hard to – I mean, he seems like a tremendous – Sure. Very strong likelihood to make it into the end zone, but if it's at to i mean he seems like a tremendous uh sure very strong likelihood to make it into the end zone but if it's at minus 200 or something i it's probably only touchdown props for fun that's my take you know yeah i personally don't plan on winning money for it but if you want to do it definitely not a bad you know i mean if that's what you're into then do it you know you can get tired with the one yard line four times and Taysom Hill could just, you know, stick his arm over the goal line.

So, yeah, I don't bet these props either. Yeah. Without knowing the juice, it's hard to. To Connor's point, throw those bad boys in the same game parlay because you're already losing EV to the house anyway. Right. You just want to get really, really crazy with it, pants off. You want to get a, you know, a Darren Revell retweets cause you threw five bucks down on a, you know, plus $10,000 same game parlay. You know, then you should toss in all your, your touchdown props. But otherwise it is. I've always said like, we joke about this. There's a reason that draft when you open up draft Kings,

that touchdown props are on the top first page right there. They want you, they're begging for you to all books too. Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, some people as, uh, you know, uh, Kelsey right now in the chat said, you know, I've been making big money on touchdown scores last few weeks. You can definitely make big money. I just have not found a way to do it myself. Uh, and so, you know, if it's, if it's your thing and you can do it, do it. Otherwise I, I stay away. Same. I just think that we run into like, where it's, if it's your thing and you can do it, do it. Otherwise I, I stay away. Same. I just think that we run into like, where it's the math part,

the actual number that it's set at is not the actual probability, right? When you think actual, the juice is a implied probability of the event happening. They never actually are equals. Like there's, it's so in favor of the book so kelsey run hot uh we're here to cheer for you i am never going to poopoo anyone for making their money however they got to make it you're running hot on touchdown props you got an edge go get it um it is just not going to be something that we're going to typically recommend in the congress points just be careful with them especially like first touchdown props or like last touchdown like i don't even understand some of those i i will say is that the touchdown um like the like if they get like a tight end starting or like a new guy starting you can hit the touchdown props before those lines

move that's actually something i like um like there was two weeks ago we lost on it but tony jones jr had some like you know like eight to one or ten to one props anytime touchdown score yeah that's different yeah but yeah anyways but i do i do think that is a way before they post because they post touchdown props before they post actual props yeah um so that's a different way to like kind of get some uh you know arbitrage or you know some it's a way to attack props that haven't been released yet. Yeah, no, I agree with that. That's a different scenario, but that was sharp. I had that too. JMD again, Darrell Williams wants to know about the mentor.

Over 17 and a half receiving yards and over 10 and a half as a longest reception. Yeah, I mean, he's been involved more in the passing game as of late, trying to get you a projection number on him here. Either of you have a feel for this I will say I was a little bit surprised to see his combined rushing and receiving yard line at 50.5 I thought that was a bit high considering what some of Clyde's numbers are yeah so that was probably the only really kick I had was just kind of going to spend some time later on looking a little bit closer at that number. But yeah, 55, 50.5 seemed like a high total for the mentor. I know it's obviously a pretty friendly matchup, but yeah.

Yeah, I agree. We combined as 53 in our projections. We have him for 32 in the passing game, but you know, passing yardage numbers to running backs are so volatile. And O'Connor and I have been on the wrong end of those numerous times early in the season. And then we just try to stay away from them. Cause you know, our projections seem to love them and my wallet does not. Same, same boat here. I played these a lot in the past and yeah, I'm just largely avoiding them unless I think there's just a massive edge on

them. But yeah, I couldn't agree more. It's highly subject to volatility. I encourage everybody to track all of their results, including what category of props you're betting. The more information that you track and record, it will tell you more and more about where your edges are as a better. You can learn a lot about, you know, where your strengths and weaknesses are. And for me personally, I was losing the most on running back reception props. So as a result, I've adjusted and I'm, you know, like I mentioned before, I'm only really betting these spots unless I think I have a significant edge on them. Yeah. Sharp. Everyone needs a Dan Rivera in their life. Track all your props, all your different edges. Shout out, Dan. Great job with the Excel work, Dan. Awesome. Dalton, our boy Dalton wants to know if you could only bet one type of bet for

the rest of your life, QB unders look ahead lines etc what would it be and why uh alex if you can only bet one thing i'm guessing it's not touchdown props and i'm guessing it's not uh receiving yards for running backs yeah that would be the last that would be the last quarterback uh so yeah this season my biggest edge has actually been on um running back uh running back rushing attempts lines i've had a really good win rate with and i've also done really well with quarterback attempts um as well so yeah just i'm going where the money is so uh i probably between yeah rushing uh running back attempts lines and quarterback attempts lines as well has been really generous to me. Connor, I think I know your answer, but what would it be to you?

I mean, it has to be bad QB unders. That's just like my – bad QB unders against good defenses. That's just like my – that's like a system play for me. But according to the numbers, I'm better at wide receiver unders hitting a very nice 69% of those bets right now. So, I mean, by the numbers that Dan Rivera is, he divides it all into

like different categories for us. So, yeah, I mean, I guess that's probably what I have to go with, even though it feels wrong. Love that number. Oh, yeah, that's that makes a lot of sense. So you look at my thing from Dan charting. This is actually good news.

I didn't even know this. I'm 10-4 on tight end props this year. Well, that is an omen for this week if I've ever seen one, Mr. Nathan. I gave you three, so let's go. So we're going to be 13-4 after week 14, gentlemen. Yep. But I'm also hitting about almost 68% on team totals this year. Wow, that's impressive, right?

That's something I've done for years. You know, my totals article is almost exclusively team totals. I just think that there's a massive edge on playing around key numbers. I talk about it all the time. And a pretty large sample of, of team total unders. Yeah. 20 and 10 so far this year. If that's not enough reason to get the four for four subscription,

but I don't know what is, because you will get access to Mr. Noonan's team totals articles that comes out once a week. And that is a very impressive winning percentage. Thank you, buddy. I got one squad. I am five and O on their team under. I'm going for six and O this week.

And you can find that out when you buy a sub. You got, oh, you have a sub. What a tease. You have a sub. Yeah, we are just going to continue to print on team total so i would probably leave something in the prop field because i love props but like if i'm betting something that's a more traditional actually i don't even think team totals are traditional because i've been i've done multiple podcast appearances on other shows this year and i

like talk about team totals and like the host is always like i never really think about team totals or we never talk about team totals on the show. And yeah, I think it's probably a more traditional market, but yeah, I think it's definitely, there's edges to be had. Yeah. Because we're betting like insane derivatives, whether or not,

you know, like a quarterback will, you know, have a first pass attempt at, you know, X smart, you know, we talk about those things where it's like people,

they don't even understand those exists. So that's true. All right. For the sake of the show, we are, we've been, I don't even believe that exist so no it's true all right for the sake of the show we are uh we've been i don't even believe that we are 55 minutes in we're going to try to bust through we usually stay around an hour um we're going to try to bust through these as much as we can um i'm going to pick one of you so stretch out uh if the other has a thought just raise your hand i

will call on you and you can jump in as well so um you guys are awesome you guys buried us with questions as well so um i think we got to get to this one this one was the first one patrick wants to know again this is probably going to take 10 minutes uh patrick wants to know who would win in a 1v1 v1 fight between myself connor and alex um alex i'm going to kick it to you i know connor's thoughts um i had you know connor and alex um alex i'm gonna kick it to you i know connor's thoughts um i had you know connor and i had an argument with some other people about who would win races like i know connor is um i know his thoughts here alex what do you think yeah i think this is a fantastic question i'm down to spend as much time as it possibly takes to get to the root of this answer. So, yeah, it does depend on if, you know,

Ryan and Connor make some type of agreement before we step into, you know, the squared circle or octagon. Do they decide to take me out first and then settle their differences? But in a scenario where it's like to the death and there can be no, there can be no alliances made ahead of time. I want to back myself. I do have a background in Greco-Roman

wrestling, which I do think will benefit me. I also took some jiu-jitsu classes in the past. I do think that will help me. I do think that Ryan and Connor may have a cardio edge, so I'd probably have to dispose of them quickly or else I might gas because it's been a long time since I've wrestled or done jiu-jitsu.

But, yeah, that's my campaign. How tall are you, Alex? I'm 6'1". Okay, so I'm the shortest out of all of you then. Noonan is a damn giant. I mean, Noonan is like 6'4". Like, you know, he's a big dude. Okay, Noonan, we've talked about this before.

I would definitely beat you in a race. I don't think I would beat you in a fight. I mean, you have like six inches of reach on me. Like, I mean, I'm not short. I'm like six foot. But like, I mean, you're like, I mean, you're just, I mean, you're a lot taller than I am. So like, I don't know.

Alex has a bear on his wall. That's true too. I mean, did you kill that thing? Like, honestly, did you kill that thing like i did not i did not definitely did i yeah i mean you and your asthmatic cat when took that motherfucker down i also have 15 years on you at least connor so you know you're that's true that's some old man strength that's also that's the thing is i have dad strength that the two of you don't really fully have. You know, these dad hands. I'm in that sweet spot, though, because I'm 34.

So that's like right when the old man strength comes. I still have some of that, like, you know, youthful athleticness still kind of teetering around. So, yeah, I think it'd be really interesting. I think we should do it at some point. I think we should do it next year point. I mean, next year, week one, we have a cage fight. I'm in,

I will be there anyways. Alex, you're welcome. I'm coming. Hey, purview, you know, it'll be,

it'll be awesome. It would be awesome. Please type in chat. I would like to see everybody type in chat who they think will win this three-way Royal rumble as well, please. You know, or if you're listening later, tag us on Twitter.

We definitely would like to get the community involved. And more questions like that. It's a fantastic question. Agreed. Thank you, Patrick. These are the questions we want. Yeah, shout out, Patrick. Yeah.

Actually, Cody called it out. Alex is a damn bear on his wall. I mean, hard to get there. I think it's also a good point. Vinny said Alex, because the other two would just be paralyzed by the beauty of his mane. And I think that that is something we didn't actually really consider. The hair would be down in the combat scenario. Be blinded by the beauty.

Cody called us earlier. He wanted to know which quarterback Connor was fading. Mike Glennon was the answer. Dan, I left your calves alone. Minus 10,000 that I would take a shot at Dan's baby calves. I did not in this episode. I left your baby calves alone. Stop skipping

legs day and hit those calves. They're important. You don't want to look weird. Let's see here. What else we got here? Everyone is calling Connor's shot early, which I absolutely love to see. No Jared Patterson props yet. No, no Jarrett Patterson.

A hockey prop. A hockey prop. Okay. All right. Shot props. Dropping a – I'm not even going to try to say that name, but over three and a half shots. Yeah, okay.

I'm into it. Is that the Vegas Knights? Yeah, the Vegas Knights. Over three and a half shots on goal. Minus 160. Only played eight games this year. Average 5.63 shots on goal per game. Hit the over 87%.

100% at home. Five last. Five last five. I mean, this is a great bet. I know. He is a sharp hockey better. So I'm riding for the squad. I'm about to bet this right now.

Me too. I'm going to get in on it. I love people for the squad. I'm about to bet this right now. Me too. I'm going to get in on it. I love people that are sharp. I tied up my entire points bet account for like five days on a random like Davis Cup tennis bet a couple of weeks ago because some dude

that I really trust on tennis put it out and it hits. So I love people that are like super sharp in these really niche sports. So thanks, Chop Props. Podcast listeners, i'm sorry you missed it you got to join us in the chat uh shout out to dt uh connor got the dt jersey on connor big fan of uh of dt is his you know favorite player growing up which was like

last year um when connor you know legitimately like my favorite player growing up which is sad because he like wasn't even playing till 2010 but like when i was in in like i was a huge broncos fan growing up and then like he came into the picture and the whole tebow thing you know and peyton manning era like i mean it was just awesome he was an incredible player and and from most accounts you know an incredible you know, and someone who took the time to teach, you know, other younger wide receivers played with the kids, you know, was a nice guy from all I've heard. So, you know, rest in peace.

Tragic. This is why I couldn't do a, you know, a fight bet with my boys here. You know, hug the people you love. Life is, tomorrow's not promised. Take care of your people. Always these reminders slap you in the face in a hard, hard way. And I'm sure that's happening to him and his community this week in a big, big way.

Shop props, new sub. Thanks, man. So we need to tailor even more. New account yet and subbed yet. Shout outs again. Again, Propstar is coming with some NBA stuff here starting next week. So you guys want to get on that, get it going for sure.

Edward also best subscription out there. You guys are awesome. Great job guys. Dalton getting the shout out to Connor with his wine. Super. I finished another glass, but I don't want to get up in Joe thoughts on Connor under 30 and a half attempts at minus one 30. Yeah.

I fired back. I like that. I think that's good. That's a big number. Deshaun Jackson, over 19 yards, minus 120. Yeah, that seems solid.

Again, the way he's used is that makes a ton of sense. Shot Prop's excited. I think he has the Josh Jacobs number um he got that live that is not typically what happens with prop stars you're typically trying to find um you know variations of the number that you need to see if they're still yep the shrapnel that is left behind from a prop stars pick um ceh has come up there's apparently a apparently a boost on DraftKings. CEH over 58.5 rushing yards on DraftKings at a plus number here. Anyone have a thought on CEH here?

I'm going to dig up his. Yeah, it doesn't seem like a bad number. I think his actual number, I want to say, is between 60 and 63.5. The Raiders are somewhat of a run funnel as well they have a very aggressive pass rush with ngakwe and max crosby i believe that ranked first in a pass rush grade as well so you know a good way to counter that is by running the ball taking advantage of an overly aggressive uh defensive line uh the chiefs however don't tend to do that even when teams are inviting them, which would be an argument against the spot. The mentor is also in the backfield.

I don't think CEH has had some durability concerns. I'd lean over on it slightly, but with the involvement of the mentor coupled with the Chiefs still wanting to pass the ball as much as they do i don't personally love it yeah um everyone well mentioning that uh you look like you're ready for a nap what just happened on the show before yeah i am tired i am tired hanging in the garden they're in the lab it's a combination of both the garden is very uh fruitful yes very it is uh adjacent to the lab it's literally right there you can go out that door and you are in in the garden of gardens kelsey coming to hang out with us appreciate it move over from twitter to hang out and support proppy in the show thanks for hanging out with us kelsey love you kelsey continue to cash those touchdown props um you were awesome uh she had a question about ceh as well which we already

answered uh multiple ceh questions you guys are all over this one maybe this is a prop offering a boost or something that you're i mean plus 125 i actually don't really like mind it i think a plus one plus money i think it's fine uh did you guys i didn't mean to cut you off cutter did you guys see the boost that was on fan duel last night that was uh it was uh big ben and kirk cousins who each throw for 200 passing yards at plus 200 i did not i i missed that one that sucks that's amazing right free money yeah that was free we could bet up to 200 bucks as well oh wow, wow. They never let you do that. I know. It was amazing.

Congrats. Connor Olson, love, love, love Josh Allen. Over 39.5 pass attempts against – I think that's interesting too, right? Pass funnel, Bucs defense. Bucs defense is good against the pass. We need to kind of move past that. Again, they are good against the run still. So the best way to approach them is to throw.

But they are top 10 unit defensively. They've also shown some chinks in the armor too on the ground too. So I do think having a more balanced approach is the way to go versus the Bucs, especially recently. And yeah, their secondary and their pass coverage has made just absolutely massive strides over the past handful of weeks. They are no longer the, we talked about this last week at length, right? The exploitable matchup that you look for to attack, you know, if you're searching for wide receiver or quarterback overs, they are an excellent coverage unit at this stage of the season and if anything they're a match to avoid in my opinion so yeah especially if you look at like recent trends as well uh they have been

extremely stingy both to wide receivers tight ends and quarterbacks so i'm actually looking under um on kind of inflated numbers and that even maybe one of them there i haven't taken that close of a look at it but yeah yeah, I, I, I just air cautiously. This is not the same bucks defense that it was the first five weeks of the season. They've had a drastic turnaround. So just want to put that out there. Yeah, we have a projection at 36 and a half.

So we, our number is under this number. So definitely not a bettable edge and probably if anything, the edge would be towards the under um fred wants to know about gibson over 66 and a half yards we have gibson at 68 against dallas again not a bettable edge in my opinion kelsey with a shout out on claypool uh over under 10 seconds on a celebration not a great look for for claypool there for sure let's see what else we got um tight end week hell yeah dalton let's get it uh people want to know about connor's wine and about how you get an asthmatic cat um it's a long story i can tell you uh let's see if there are any uh thoughts on

jarvis landry based on the game script and last game how depleted the Ravens are yeah I mean receptions you can get me but it's juiced up at this point uh he's not a dude that I want to attack yards with how he's played so he's pretty much a stay away from me either of you have any feelings on Jarvis Landry yeah I think you summed it up well personally Ryan what about you Connor yeah I'm coming around on the the Browns passing game and the over on that game, but I think it could be a little bit more spread out. Maybe Hooper gets you some, maybe a long Donovan Peoples-Jones. I don't know. Do you guys have a take on getting a Nick Chubb line under 70 yards? I know obviously we're eight for 16 two weeks ago. Coming off of the bye,

obviously no Tyler Conklin is going to be a significant loss for this Browns offense. But yeah, this is maybe the first time I can remember, at least in the past 20 to 30, Nick Chubb starts that we've seen his rushing line under 70 yards. Just curious what your guys' take on that is. He's got such big playability where it's like it's – I'm sure that there – this is sometimes maybe a leak in my process where I can, I can easily envision a big play like that, crushing an under on yardage and someone like that. I'd,

I'd rather play if I'm going to play an under on Chubb, it's probably going to be on like an attempts situation versus yardage. Cause he's so talented against any defense. He can just house one. So I bet that the lean is probably under, but it's not a play for me. Yeah. Market is efficient there.

I think. Alex is going to have a props article in 4-4 on Wednesdays. So again, you want to subscribe and take advantage of that. Do not miss that. Let's see. Patrick wants to know, Mike Williams over 67 and a half yards. Yeah, obviously all the injuries and COVID issues going on there. Any thoughts here on Mike Williams?

Yeah, I mean, set up favorably without Keenan Allen in the lineup. Yeah, hopefully he's getting double-digit targets that you'd look for. So, yeah, I think it's an over or no play. The ADOT, though, well, it's very deep. So I'm hoping that they kind of allow him to have a more diverse route tree and kind of pick up some of those high percentage routes that Keenan was running, you know, closer to the line of scrimmage, get the ball in his hands. If they're going to just kind of lean on him as the big play guy,

which we've seen, you know, with Keenan in the lineup, I'm a little more concerned with it because, you know, that's subject to a lot of volatility. Those are the lowest percentage passes to complete when they're down the field. You also have to, you know, worry about pass interference calls on both sides. So, yeah, I'd lean over. It's a little bit tough because we haven't really seen Mike Williams in this offense without Keenan very much.

But yeah, for me, it's an over or nothing, but don't have a strong take. Totally depends on his role. I think that's what it comes down to what, what they kind of routes are having run. So you said it well, but that's, I think something, that could be a great in-game live betting opportunity. He also wants to know about Zach Wilson's attempts over 34.5. We have him at 35.5.

Not a bettable edge, in my opinion. Chill. You're correct. It is the Jets. My team total under run is on the Jets. This is an avid subscriber of yours, right? Take advantage of the jets unders anytime we can get them uh this week against uh saints team that we don't trust

offensively but the defense is still pretty stout and jets are not getting to 20 so we got alvin kamara yep all right uh that about does it you guys are awesome uh went a little longer this week really want to continue to do our best to get to all your questions so that is super helpful um without going you know making this a two-hour show but we um are nothing without you hanging out with us and firing off uh these like we said every week this is you know the favorite piece of content for each of us that we do so we are super duper grateful we do want to get to producer sal's uh prop tool bet of the week so sal break us home what's prop tool bet of the week. So Sal, bring us home. What is our bet of the week?

All right, Sal, hit us with it. The big drop for uh oh my god oh look at that oh my god plus 110 look at that sal just whipped this up oh i love a slight favorite baby let's go i am. I'm the biggest dog here? Yeah, let's go, Alex. Oh, my gosh. Bet on me. Sal thinks you've been in the garden too much, bro.

I guess so. I mean, look at those guns, baby. Of course I'm the favorite. I think Connor is the undertaker. If I'm not mistaken, that looks like the undertaker is the outfielder. You got Noonan filling in as Hulk Hogan. And I'm not quite sure who. Is this Virgil over here?

Virgil's been headlocked. It might be Virgil over there. Ric Flair. I'm Ric Flair. Okay, so the chest slaps were just happening. Where's Alex's cat? I think if Alex is going to be the dad, his cat has got to be in there.

I'll have three cats on my shoulders just ready to... I absolutely love this, Al. Thank you again for the event. If you guys are listening on podcasts, thank you. We super appreciate it. The YouTube stream is the way the show is intended to work. There's a wonderful graphic up right now if you're listening super appreciate it. The YouTube stream is the way the show is intended.

There's a wonderful graphic up right now. If you're listening via audio only. All right. Take us home. What are your props? All right. We got Davis Mills under four and a half rushing yards. This is minus one Oh five on draft Kings. kings the snail i love him laying on the ground what are some jordan one spikes he's wearing too those are fresh it looks good yeah this is a nice value play uh under four and a half rushing yards i imagine um that neither of you have a strong

lean but we probably think it's a good play i mean he runs like a young a prime jay cutler dude yeah i mean he's gone over that twice all season i'm in i'm fully in i needed a way to bet on davis mills so there you go some extra action it's great sound you made a little sloth action too you got another one for us you got two this week oh he's got two this week again he keeps giving us two with a rushing prop on the quarterback. Ty Johnson. Yeah, Ty Johnson. Over 20 and a half. I looked at this, actually. All right, I like it.

This line opened at 39 and a half, apparently. I saw it. Yeah. I took some under on that. I took a little piece, but wasn't able to get it out. But 20 and a half. I mean, this guy's going to get – I know it's the Saints, but, I mean, there's no Tavon Coleman and obviously no Michael Carter.

Is it Austin Williams is the other running back in the Jets backfield? Austin Walter. Austin Walter. So, I mean, he's going to get 10 to 12 touches most likely, or 12 to 10 carries. So, I mean, at 20 and a half yards, my model had an edge on it as well. So, I like this. I love it. Yeah, this is another one of those examples where a group probably moved on it

on an under in a big, big way. Everyone and their brother comes in, tails it, just keeps pounding it down regardless of what the number is, and all of a sudden we've lost 50% of the line. How often do you see a 50%? Yeah, so what happened was it opened at FanDuel on 39.5. A group hit the under hard. It was still at 35.5 points, but that's where it originally opened.

Then DraftKings didn't open it at all. Then DraftKings and Caesars opened it at 20. So I think it's still 35.5 points, but 20, I mean, decent middle still. That's a great middle. Yeah, so if you're into it, I mean, I think that's actually fine. I consider taking some over 20 just to get a little middle there as well. I think. Yeah. Yeah. That's wild. So, all right. So back on the, on the horse this week, we're going to get some wins.

We're going to go 14 and others. We can feel it in my bones. It's a good thing. So you guys are awesome. Again, check out the show notes and get all the information. You can go the show notes. You can get all the information. You can go prop by prop. You can get understanding of how you want to get access to our tools. The tools that we just showed you here on YouTube are part of our betting sub. Again, 444.com slash plans. That's going to include NFL to the end of the season and then NBA through the end of February.

And you can jump right back in and do it with us through the end of the NBA season. Buy your annual subscription in March, take you home all the way to next March. So you guys are the best. We appreciate it. So for Connor and Alex, I am Ryan. We will see you next week. Thanks, everyone.

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