Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 15 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: December 18, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, Connor, Ryan and Alex discuss their top Week 15 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  __________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 15 Prop Drop Intro 11:36 Top Week 15 Prop Bets 55:38 Viewer Props Q + A 1:17:30 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 1:20:06 Week 15 Prop Drop Outro

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by Winbet. Download the Winbet app today. Enter promo code four for four receive a risk-free thousand dollar bet i am ryan noonan joined as always by my two favorite fellow property gents first connor allen connor beautiful hat what's going on buddy yeah i mean just rocking the same hat here no sticker uh i mean i know that's a big big thing for you for you guys i mean we should we should discuss that but i think that i know that's a big big thing for you for you guys i mean that we should we should discuss that but i think that you know it's nice to finally have gotten some gear without

having to drive uh multiple hours to sign up for win bet uh you know shout out our boss reed thank you for finally hooking up i appreciate that are those win bet hats gentlemen these are bets hats these are uh yep the um we are now, four is part of the Betzberts media group. And Betzberts is a great app, uh, for tracking picks, which you guys should download. Company,

man. Yeah, absolutely love it. Yep. Uh, Betzberts is our parent company. Um, we had a little,

little Christmas party action a little bit last night. So a few cocktails, some, uh, live sweats of the Thursday night football game and yeah, good stuff here in the Chicagoland area is also the velvety voice of our other prop D Jen, our boy prop stars, Alex, what is going on my friend? What is good, Ryan Connor. Great to see you both.

Shout out to Betts birds. They're keeping the lights on. So yeah, they're doing, they're doing great things by backing this show yeah this is the weirdest week guys i know that we've all been struggling with it and you know from i mean it is like the most first world problem situation that you could ever possibly have. But from a content producing standpoint, it is a absolute disaster. There are books that won't even post team totals right now. Like you, like it's just,

it's very, very limited. There are situations where we don't think that we have any COVID issues or outbreaks. And like those props aren't even posted because I think the books are so worried about getting their ass handed to them with, you know know something happening and things getting cut at the last minute or whatnot so we are limited we want to keep it light we want to have some fun we want to answer your questions that is our favorite part of the show anyway so we're going to do a little bit of all of it so we have some props for you not as many as we typically have because again i hope you appreciate the authenticity of that typically we give for a piece uh it is not i think in our best interest or yours

to just give you 12 props just to give you 12 props because we haven't bet 12 props uh at this point so you know we're not here to to fill space. We're here to help give you winners. So I want to just say I want to commend 444 Ryan and Connor as well, because being in this space for as long as I have, I'm sure you guys can attest to this. Haven't been in this space for a long time as well. I have worked for other platforms where they sort of feel like a pick factory and uh yeah they wouldn't really be very sensitive to a situation uh like this weekend which is pretty much unprecedented where you know there's very few props available obviously all these covet issues are making things uh extremely wonky where you just have to force out picks even when you don't have the full level of confidence in them not the case here which is something i just admire and respect so much about

444 and being a part of this phenomenal team. So just wanted to say thank you guys. And yeah, it's a great thing. Dude, yeah. I mean, for sure. There's like, I mean, there's like half of the games have like half of the props. Like this is like, it's nothing because like you said, books are waiting to get hit. We've had so much COVID news. I mean, if you haven't like reassessed everything that you knew by like Wednesday already, like it's just like, it's constantly turning on its head. So yeah, I'm very comfortable just like give out a few props here and there,

talk about a lot of questions. I think that we can still give a lot of good analysis and hopefully we're able to, through the show and through our listeners, actually find more props that we do like because I feel that going through with you guys and like kind of breaking down props, like I'm actually able to find more props that I like because I don't always

go through this, you know, very granular thought process of every prop, you know, all the time, because I mean, it's got, it's like thousands of props every week,

you know, like it's, I mean, impossible to do every single one, but yeah, so I'm excited. We can jump in though. Yeah.

So again, a reminder, we'll house cameing at the top this is the prop drop show we have two shows per week here at move the line again wherever you're listening whether that is uh via youtube hanging out with us live we love you and appreciate that more than you know um we also again have podcasts as well so i know not everyone can hang out with us live um so wherever you are hanging out, subscribe. Let us know.

Rate and review. We appreciate that too. But subscribe lets you make sure that you get notifications so you don't miss a single episode. In our show notes, no matter where you are, there are some details of how to access our betting subscription at 444, which you need to do. We have, again, this is going to take you through the end of February. And NBA is live on Monday.

NBA is live in our Discord currently. We already have, we're like less than an hour into tip. We have winners in our Discord for NBA tonight already. So you are missing out by not taking advantage of that. 444.com slash plans. Again, that's going to get you through the end of all of our football stuff. That'll take you NBA through the end of February. Golf comes back in two weeks, which is wild to think that we're that close to, you know, golf every week, which is a big part of what we do. A great sport to bet. If you are,

you know, even somewhat interested in the game of golf we have some really great exciting stuff coming out uh sooner than later in the golf space so we are really excited about that so i am prop stars again is going to be a piece of our nba process uh he is going to be writing a prop article on wednesdays and he's going to be hanging out in the discord occasionally as well i want to just touch on that very briefly i cannot going to be hanging out in the Discord occasionally as well. I want to just touch on that very briefly. I cannot wait to be producing weekly NBA content. I will have an article every Wednesday, as Ryan mentioned. That will be exclusively with 444.

I also want to point out, I don't even think Connor and Ryan are aware of this. I've already been hanging out in the Discord under a pseudonym. So, yeah, if you guys can figure out what that pseudonym is, it's related to something very special in my life. But yeah, I am an active member in the Discord. I don't even think Connor and Ryan are aware of that yet. Oh no, I did not know

that. I did not know that you were an active member. I mean, now I'm going to have to go look and find out because I'm curious. Yeah, I just went to G. There's no garden. Do a little digging. G is a good track. I will say that much. I'll tip my hat off to that.

The people that know me really well will be able to connect what the G means. Snap. Okay. I'll probably just release it by the end of. Oh, snap. All right. Okay. Okay. All right. I'll probably just release it by the end of the show as well. I kind of like it.

I like it on the download. I'm not going to lie. So I'm scrolling furiously through our discord right now. Just look for the most troll stuff. No, just kidding. The most antagonistic, aggressive stuff that you've seen in the discord room

you might be a boomer you know like me an old and you might be like discord it's an app do i have to download this app and put it like listen i'm telling you it is first of all it's really easy to use and um you're absolutely missing out by not being in the discord the way that these props move uh you know sides and totals are going to move to the way that these props move so quickly and with the you know thirst that uh alex's following has you know when alex puts a number out it is gone very very quickly and you know, Connor and I know we're very grateful that we've built a nice little thing at four for four, and we're noticing that that's happening as well. And you really want to get in because, uh, yeah, like the three of us all want to make

these bets and all make money. That's why we do this. That's how we got into the spot in the first place. We're not out here to not make money ourselves, but I cannot begin to tell you how much we appreciate what's happened in the last few weeks. You know, we've had some really strong weeks and we're starting to get a little bit more feedback from the discord kind of letting us know that that's happening. And I, you know, Connor and I have talked offline about it a lot. It's like, we're just very, very grateful that, you know, shout out Benny. Thank you. Best subscription ever. We appreciate it. We were very, very grateful that, you know, shout out Benny. Thank you. Best subscription ever.

We appreciate it. We were very, very grateful when you guys are making money too. We want to help you make that cash. That's why we're doing it. The community wins are the best. So I cannot reiterate that enough. The discord is going to help you do that the best. If you're waiting for the article, the articles, just, we need them from an SEO standpoint.

Sometimes just for like clicks in the way that the business works. Sometimes we make sure that those aren't dead numbers too, just like our job is here to make sure that they're not dead numbers. But you're going to get that number immediately. I will bet it and I will put it in there within 90 seconds of when I hit it myself. So hopefully our subscribers can get it quickly. I know Connor is the same. I'm sure Alex too. I started release actually putting the props in the Discord before I even hit it myself. So hopefully our subscribers can get it quickly. I know Connor is the same. I'm sure Alex too.

I started release actually putting the props in the discord before I even bet on myself because I'm a man of the people. And that I admire that greatly. I will do the same thing. I also want to say what I've found at least so far this season with NBA props, there are a little less subject to some of the extreme movement that happens with NFL props.

This may be a limited sample size, and, you know, I haven't gone like kind of full blast yet with NBA. But personally, I've noticed when I've given out the few NBA props I have, what's nice is that the numbers will actually kind of stay available for a little bit longer than NFL props, which, yeah, if you're having trouble kind of, you know, getting the same numbers and lines as us, uh, NBA, you might have a little more luck with that. This is an advantage to our current discord members only at this point, uh, we'll run a little promo here. Whoever can guess properties discord username,

we're going to give them a free four for four t-shirt. So hit us up in the comment section. Again, if you're already in the discord you have the ability to scroll down and find some uh some answers if you're not get real creative uh if you can get it and you're not in this discord we'll get you a hoodie okay like we'll make it we'll make it happen so uh get get real creative you know maybe he said he kind of hung and carried out there maybe there's you have some intel even if you're not currently a full four subscriber uh based on following and hanging out with prop stars in other spots so Maybe he said he kind of hung a carrot out there. Maybe you have some intel, even if you're not currently a full subscriber,

based on following and hanging out with prop stars in other spots. So, all right, gentlemen. Oh, also, NBA, the tools. The tools that we have for the NFL, have them for the NBA tool. Prop tool explorer, the prop tool finder itself. Lots of great stuff. We're excited about it. Prop article every day.

Discord firing stuff off. Let's get to it prop article every day discord firing stuff off let's get to it so uh connor start us off my man uh what is a uh prop that you have that you're confident in so far this week yeah so i really like um and i'll kind of go off go off on two of my props here so i double down on the mormon wonder himself tasem hill uh over eight and a half rushing temps uh for what it's worth i don't know if he's a mormon or not can you say that on the The Mormon wonder himself, Taysom Hill, over 8.5 rushing attempts. For what it's worth, I don't know if he's a Mormon or not. Can you say that on the show? Is he a BYU alum?

Yeah, he is a BYU alum. Good chance he's a Mormon then, right? Yeah. Well, I mean – I think it's required. It's not required. I mean, like, there's no way that they're, like, form a legitimate football team with only Mormons.

I mean, that just seems like – I mean, you don't go to BC or Notre Dame if you're not Catholic. Dude, that is not true. Dude, I promise. I bet there's so many people that are not Catholic that go to those schools. Anyways, I like the over 8.5 rush attempts for him. I also like over 43 rushing yards. So his rush attempts I just took lately, this was minus 140 at open,

so I stayed off, but now minus 115 at draft games. He started and finished six games in the past two seasons. He has 10, 10, 14, 5, 11, and 11 rush attempts in those games. They're now 10.00 dogs against the Bucs, a team that was just torched by Josh Allen for 100 rushing yards on 12 attempts. I think this line should be 9.5, so I'm very comfortable playing this over. And then his rushing yards, same kind of premise, but

in two games this year, he has 111 and 73 rushing yards. And just basically when he backs up, one of his first looks is to run. He's got no one to throw to. I just think at this point, he's almost guaranteed to rush for 10 times for

whatever, not to mention any goal line packages is usually good for, like, one to two times a game. So I think that I'm doubling down on it. I'm not scared. It definitely could come to bite me. It's essentially a two-unit play, but I really like both of those. I actually love both of those as well. I'm going to call this right now. I'm going to make his yardage an official play as mine as well.

Yeah, I have been eyeing Taysom Hill. Yeah, that is an awesome spot. I've been eyeing Taysom Hill as well. I also think this matchup will invite him to run, as Connor mentioned, just watching him. He is a first read through his progression, and then he takes off, coupled with the fact that New Orleans does not have any really viable receiving options.

These guys are terribly miscast in their current roles. We've also seen this Bucs secondary improve drastically in the back end, specifically in their secondary. So, yeah, I do think he's going to have to run the ball a lot. I think the Bucs will also allow them to in a scenario where they get up double digits and they're kind of, you know, backing off a little bit. So yeah, I absolutely love this prop as well. It's something I've been eyeing.

So yeah, I'm going to make that an official play as mine. Love it. I, yeah, I tailed, I did not tail the attempts. I gave it a long look actually was looking at our prop Explorer tool when Connor posted the eight and a half. So that was interesting and kind of looked like he basically is going over this every time he starts um i didn't want to double down because i also did take the uh the yardage number earlier but i do like both plays one other interesting point here is something that i've heard talked about a lot so we've kind of seen when you look at some of like the you know season

long numbers for the bucks defense as far as you know rushing yards allowed if started to dip a little bit you know they're not necessarily like the top unit in the league anymore and that's a little bit intentional and Bruce Arians has been really adamant about game plan wise in the second half and particularly and I know this is going to sound like it makes sense but like it sounds like they're doing it to even more of an aggressive degree. They, especially with a lead, are overplaying the pass in the second half. They are inviting you to run. So last week, everyone was complaining about the Bills not running in the first half.

And then they start running in the second half, and they have some success. And everyone's like, well, look. Look at how they're running. They should have done it earlier. But the reality is they were facing a very different defensive front that was inviting them to run and they were like wisely checking out of runs and we saw a ton of josh allen runs in the second half because they were playing with so much nickel defense they were dropping linebackers in the coverage i think we're gonna have a same spot where we're gonna have tasem

hill in the second half this might be a you know at halftime and you're like, oh, he's got three attempts in 20, you know, 20 yards. And he's going to just go ahead and take off in the second half. So I like it quite a bit. And it kind of just fits how Tampa Bay is playing right now. So that's why I tailed it. So we talked about it on the Wednesday show, too. That's a great, I think, a great point there. Because, like, I mean, like, they're 10-'re 10 point favorites they're probably gonna be up by a good mid

like as long as they're not up by 40 or the Saints are winning by 10 you know Taysom Hill is going to be dropping back a ton and probably likely scrambling what is your guys take on uh Jonathan Taylor's yards and his combo prop this week, I know it's hovering around 116 yards. Kind of speaking, I know we're somewhat off subject here, but yeah, just looking at New England's defense, the one area that they have been vulnerable this season has been on the ground. There is also a wide array of people who Bill Belichick likes to, or there's a narrative that he likes to take away the opposing team's biggest strength, which obviously in this scenario you would think that he could potentially, you know, play the run more aggressively considering that is what Indianapolis' bread and butter has been.

So, yeah, I'm curious what your guys' take on Jonathan Taylor is this week. Yeah, I mean, so, so we actually have, someone asked that question that Chad here made in focus. So right now, 115 and a half combined rushing receiving yards, I believe is rushing total is around, you know, in the nineties, like high nineties, low one hundreds. And we haven't projected for 118 combined 90 rushing yards. And then the receiving yards.

So I think that for me, I guess my only concern, something we talked about on the Wednesday show, is that if you're New England, like, so we saw, actually saw this happen. The Colts, you know, dominated the Bills largely through the running game against a better by the numbers Bills defense than the Patriots. Like the Bills defense, run defense is, you know, better by DBOA and by some metrics than the Patriots run defense. However, I kind of trust Bill Belichick's game planning more so to stack the box

and force the Colts to beat them through the passing game rather than the running game. Like, I think that there's two very clear paths here in this game. So, like, I think that the Patriots stack the box and make force Carson Wentz to throw, which is definitely not guaranteed to stop Jonathan Taylor, who's an elite talent, but I think certainly has a better chance than the Bills, who were very reluctant even last week in a game where we knew Mac Jones wasn't throwing to stack the box at all. And then I also think the Patriots on the other side of the ball

are going to throw the ball a lot more compared to last week when they didn't with a win game and now are facing a Colts team that's good at run defense and the Patriots without Damian Harris, like their kind of bully ball type of back. I mean, Stevenson kind of can play that role, but I think that, I think it just doesn't lend towards him getting 20 carries, like if they don't have both of them.

So that's kind of how I see that game playing out. Noonan, do you have any, any takes there beyond that? I think it's perfect, Connor, to be honest. I mean, I think that there's the narrative in New England, like the, you know, the Mac Jones stuff is like, oh, they don't trust the rookie quarterback. They took the ball out of his hands and it's like, well, no, they, they just were able to run. Can you imagine? Like do you see how ornery the bills were after that game?

You knew what was coming and you could not stop them. Why would you deviate from that and risk throwing the ball in that scenario? So you mentioned at the top, like no one is, and that's sometimes why i think you have to take some of the patriots season-long big picture metrics from again you know with a grain of salt because of how they will scheme up and i think that's what you see here i think you see a ton of man coverage you see jc jackson man up on michael pittman you see man across the board on dusty ty hilton uh zach pascal who we love to go under on. The Pats can do that, you know, with no problem.

They're healthy in the back end. And you see run blitzes to stop Jonathan Taylor, stack boxes and run blitzes to stop him. Doesn't mean that they do, but I think they make a deliberate attempt to do so. So, again, you know, main focus also calling out, he's always been great at taking away the best option. Yeah, I mean, that's what they're going to do here,

knowing that part of the success that we've seen from Carson Wentz in the last few weeks has been a more dominant Jonathan Taylor, right? We've seen Naheem Hines be regulated to backup duty at best. And then you see the spike in play action rate off of the handoffs. And I think belichick thinks that they can win that way i think they're able to pass the ball more too so i kind of like the over in this game i didn't take it but i think you see more points because i think we're reacting to what we saw with the run heavy game in buffalo but yeah i mean here's the thing with jonathan

taylor though he is one of those dudes that is really hard to kind of contextualize right they couldn't do all these things and he can still win he just needs one yep so definitely not taking the under don't get me wrong i mean but i'm i'm not as excited about the over as like the numbers might seem yeah in fairness to him he's been averaging close to 150 scrimmage yards over the past 10 games i think he's also cleared this number in at least nine of those 10 games this guy has been phenomenal and the opponents obviously are keying in on him he is the focal point of the opposing team's game plan week in week out and despite that he is still running all over everyone so oh yeah there's a great scheme and system in indianapolis very good run blocking

line coupled with you know probably the most explosive running back in the nfl right now at the peak of his power so i'm very interested to see this match also taking the receiving yards too like you've seen like those like whatever screens that he houses like 60 70 yards like that can easily get over the top it doesn't matter what schemes you run like that's just like something that could very easily counteract a lot of pressure from the patriot so i would say it's combo prop or nothing with him this week considering that yeah he's likely to be very involved if they do sell out to stop the run you just mentioned connor is his ability as a receiver is yeah he's just capable of snapping off a 50 60 70 yard play anytime the ball's in his hands and

you know they'll make him a focal point on the screen plays on the passes to the flouts and by the line of scrimmage uh yeah if they do take away the run a bit i agree uh prop for me here davante parker over 54 and a half receiving yards says minus 115 on draft kings um our projections have parker at 75 and a half a really really nice edge in projections obviously with jaylen wattle out con Connor's boy, the path gets a lot clearer for Parker. Again, Jets dead last in yards per reception, dead last in completion percentage allowed, dead last in passer rating allowed. They are awful against the pass.

They have no talent really anywhere on the field right now, which is unfortunately you'll love to see that for the Jets. I'm sorry. But, you know, Parker's just kind of an alpha he's been fed a massive workload in every game that he's been healthy this season now we get him in this spot against the jets without waddle in 54 and a half i really thought this was going to open in the mid 60s so uh and it sat out there i posted it a little bit ago this one has not been steamed up very much so i think it is active for listeners currently um haven't checked in the last hour or so but i saw it hanging out there i posted it a little bit ago this one has not been steamed up very much so i think it is active for listeners currently um haven't checked in the last hour so but i saw it hanging out there at 54 and a half so i would play this probably anywhere under 60 i think he's able to

get there pretty comfortably i like this quite a bit as well we've seen even with waddle in the lineup uh when davante has been on the field there's been at times where he is getting uh the lion's share of the targets in the offense so yeah without waddle against just an inc i mean it doesn't get much better of a matchup than against the jets i think this is a great spot to back parker uh the path to beating the jets as well is going to be through the air i feel like that even miami cannot really muster much of a run game, even against the Jets. I know Myles Gaskin is likely to be back. But, yeah, the running game has just been putrid.

We've also seen Miami, from a philosophical standpoint, shift to primarily a high-volume passing offense. The Bucs have been behind that pretty much all season. I know that's something that I think we've all collectively taken advantage of at times. So yeah, Miami's going to throw the ball a ton. Waddle has just

been receiving massive target shares. So yeah, without him on the field, I think Parker is just almost close to a lock for 10-plus targets. As healthy as he's been all season, I'm making this an official play as well. Let's go. Love it.

I can't get Connor's Dolphins. We've got to get Connor in there. These overs, though, they scare our young friend Connor here. I know. I was all in on the Jalen Waddell overs for a couple weeks, and he's awesome. I mean, dude, Jalen Waddle, you know, as much as John, our friend,

John Diggle will not want to admit it. Uh, Jalen Waddle is awesome. The real deal. He's great. And I think too, it's getting a little better too. I think he's starting to trust Devante Parker more,

which is awesome. Cause Devante Parker is not like a big guy who separates. He's a guy who wins, you know, through in the air or just kind of like, you know, creating separation of the last minute. Um, and like two has to kind of trust him. Like he can't like he has to throw him open essentially.

And that's not something that Tua was very good at as a rookie coming off of his, you know, crazy hip injury. And like, you know, basically the scheme was not planned for him at all. Now it's a ton of RPOs. Our friend Ben Solak wrote a great piece about, you know, the RPOs and like how Tua's having actually one of the best in the league at throwing RPOs, but he's not as good as everything else, but that's fine. I think as long as you can get it done through that, I think that that's okay. I will bring up one here, so a little bit break. I think that this one's interesting. It's something that Noonan and I talked about prior. I'm curious to hear your thoughts, Alex. Another group got down on on Devante Adams under 97 yards.

This is now down to 90 and a half receiving yards, but I'm very interested now because the over is plus money. It's very rare that you see plus money on a receiving prop. It's not let alone a Devante Adams prop. Now it's plus one Oh five. I kind of think I'm in, I mean, like I think that's almost better to take a plus money profit 90, like on the over then like even like 88 and a half or 89 and a half at minus 115 because uh our buddy in the

discord travis can probably plug it into the monte carlo simulator but uh i mean i think that that like personally i'd rather do that like i think the long-term expected value is a lot higher for those two yards getting plus money so i don't Yeah, I do have thoughts on that. And I couldn't agree more. I think you have certain instances where, you know, based on some really sharp action, the market will often overreact. That happens a lot. We even talked about that on a prop. We're on, we can talk about this later where we're on opposite sides, but there's a large gap on each side. And to me, you know, both the over and under at the points that we got them both have value. So yeah, when you're talking about Devontae Adams at 90

yards in a matchup that to me on paper looks like it is at the very minimum a plus matchup. Yeah, I know obviously the Ravens are still an elite defense, but the majority of the talent, in my opinion right now, is in that front and it's, you know, going to be slowing down potentially the Packers running game. I do think that, you know, the path to beating the Ravens is going to likely be through the air. Also looking at Aaron Rodgers, one of the props I was looking at is his yardage total was surprisingly higher than it has been. It's up to 280 yards. It's hard to imagine 200-plus yards going elsewhere with Devontae Adams potentially getting shut down or getting at least somewhat contained to the point where Rodgers is having a big day

without Adams heavily involved in that. To me, they likely correlate. So, yeah, I think davante adams is going to have a good game uh i do think he can get off on this raven secondary he can get off on any secondary obviously um but yeah at 90 yards and at plus odds i think it's a great spot to back him yeah i already told the discord it was a play we haven't made it i haven't booked it as an official play because i wanted to let this other group continue to steam it down because they – I think it's starting to settle.

I think we're pretty much there. Yeah, because I thought we were going to get to the 80s, but you made a great point. I haven't seen that, Connor. But a 90.5 for sure, 90.5 plus money is outstanding. We want to take advantage of that for sure. So, yeah, I mean Baltimore, 31st in explosive pass rate allowed in the season that was with marlon humphrey they have now lost marlon humphrey for the year all pro corner they

played one game without him it was against the browns last week and the browns just don't have anyone that's going to make you pay for not having marlon humphrey so that's very very different than going up against rogers and adams so yeah i, firing away at that at some point and it feels like now is the time to do so. So yeah, over 90 at plus one Oh five is what I'm seeing there. Connor and DK like that's, that's a play. So absolutely love that one. Let's jump into a question here. You guys keep firing some questions in the chat questions about whatever. I don't care. Let's, we have some weird questions from twitter uh do whatever take advantage of this time you know we don't have a ton of props for you so we want to get to anything that you

want to get to so uh we had a question from our boy dalton guru ff dalton is a uh contributor for us at four four four does some specials, gets his hands deep into the, you know, best receiving yards leader for the week running backs. He continues to find some plus Evie stuff and moves markets as well. You have the opportunity to put Tom Brady on the Houston Texans or Nathan Peterman coached by Matt Nagy on the Buccaneers. Who are you betting on?

Choose your fighter, Alex. What do you think here? I'm going to go with – I'm going to go with – We don't know what the line is. Yeah, we don't know what the line is. Are these teams playing each other? Yeah. I think for the scenario, we're playing each other.

And we'll just assume it's a pick-em? Sure. Yeah, we'll go Bucs minus three. And the current rosters are intact? Like everybody who's like no AB? Yeah, I think we'll go AB, assuming full health. So AB's on the field. Okay, so the Texans are at full health as well?

Yeah, Texans are full health, whatever that means. Man, it's hard to fade Tom Brady. I actually think the Texans are a little bit better than – well, I guess maybe they're not a little bit better than the narrative is about them. But, yeah, Brady has a little rapport with Brandon Cooks, so there's some familiarity there. The Texans secondary has been okay. Yeah. I just feel like in those crucial moments, Matt Nagy would kind of be the deciding factor.

I just feel like a blunder would occur, you know, in the final two minutes. Like he'd figure out of the bucks just from a talent standpoint would get up 10 points with two minutes and 30 seconds left. And then we'd have, you know, Tom, you know, seemingly dead in the water. He would, you know, stage a last second or, you know, he'd score a touchdown with a minute left. They'd have one timeout. You would think the game would be locked up and then now you would call like a fullback handoff or something and it'd be a

strip fumble and then brady would just make him pay so yeah i think brady just crushes their souls in a game where the nathan peterman leds just dominate for three quarters and 10 minutes, and then Brady just gets it at the end. I mean, yeah. Like, for me, as soon as I heard a Peterman-Nagy combo, like, I'm out. I mean, that's like – we've already seen, like, Nagy lead a team with a Trubisky, who's probably better than Nathan Peterman, and an elite defense, which was better than the Bucs events currently.

And I mean, sure. They ended up being okay, but like, you know, I don't know. I, they crumbled very fast.

So you're telling me that Nagy, the guy now that everyone in the league has figured out with Nathan Peterman. And I mean, a good Bucs sporting cast, but no, I'm on, I'm on the Texans three point win last second field goal because the Bears

missed a double or not the Bears, the Bucks missed a double going. That's how I predicted that. Imagine not taking Tom Brady in the points, you know, you've been on the wrong side of history for 20 years. You take there'll be a costly Rojo fumble or two in there as well. That's a good call. I can get behind that for sure. We don't have a lot of props, but we have the most on-brand prop still. Connor?

Oh, yeah, I guess this is my prop still. Okay, so, I mean, it would be – I can't go a week the rest of the season now without listing a prop that is not a QB under, a bad QB under. So I'm going to go with Mike Glennon under 197 and a half passing yards. I mean, again, like this last week, we were a little bit over 200, but he couldn't get to this number last week, despite putting together, you know, two and a half, essentially full drives and garbage time in the fourth quarter,

the game's over charters just sitting back. Don't even care letting them dig and dunk through the defense. Glennon, they also covered an outside kick with like over a minute left. And at that point, I can't even lie to you guys, I was a little bit scared. I mean, I was like, because Glennon had just, I mean, marched down the field by digging and dunking it because they don't care. I mean, the game's over.

So, like, you know, I was a little scared. But, again, if we see any sign of a competent game here, Glennon's going to end up with like 100 yards or less. He also completed a 60-yard pass to Kyle Rudolph that still didn't get him to this number. He had a 60-yard pass, had like over 100 yards at halftime, and did not get to over 200 passing yards in a game they were playing for Biden the entire year, not our entire game.

Now they're playing against the Cowboys, fourth in pass defense, DVOA, a top-five pass defense, and like a great pass rush. I think that this is an easy under. I'd play it's DVOA, a top five pass defense, and like a great pass rush. I think that this is an easy under. I'd play it to under 190. I get that, you know, maybe you get there, but Mike Lennon has just been so, so bad. I mean, he has like 40-something pass attempts and then 38 in the last two games and can't pass for 200 yards in either game.

Like he was like at 100 yards, 180 yards in both of them. So in a tougher matchup, doesn't matter if he throws the ball 40 times, he's not going to get there. Love it. I also just wanted to point out i know we were off topic or a little bit here but that i've got devante adams prop looks really good uh just looking at baltimore's defense too the amount of injuries in the secondary they're also without chuck clark obviously marcus peters down as well no marlon humphrey no Deshaun Elliott so their entire secondary to start the season is now injured and you're telling me that we can get Devontae Adams who I also I know we mentioned just to just re-emphasize this is playing the best football of the season right now he's

kind of got off to a somewhat shaky start obviously Rodgers did as well they are both just like killing it right now uh so yeah this is a great spot to back davante adams you know i know if you're about to fire this off on twitter you know give me a minute here i'm about to put this in our discord because let's make this an official play fellas i think this is a spot we have to give me 45 seconds here and i'll put this as a noon and i play in our discord and prop stars and then you can tweet this out just need to give uh ourselves a chance here too because otherwise i know you're gonna just that's gonna be from plus money to minus money at 92 yeah i've been waiting all day i've literally you know okay well i will tell i will tell them there are

people who are watching this show who relay my picks to the slack uh let's give connor and ryan a minute but make this an official play for me as well. Devontae Adams over 90 and a half receiving yards at plus 20. Yeah, this is an amazing spot. Yeah, let's get it. Pause the show. Sorry, this is not great podcast form. What we can do is this will be the portion of the show where I give you guys a tour of my garden. All right, I'm in.

I'm good. I got it in. We're good. we're good we're good again if you are hanging out with us and you are in our discord currently uh alex told us at the top of the show he's in there under a pseudonym we have to figure it out so if you can guess what alex uh his username is in our discord we'll get you a four for four t-shirt so uh scroll down try to find uh Alex is. He's in there.

And again, he's going to be in there because he's going to be firing off NBA props for us exclusively coming up very shortly. So check that out. I will give you another prop that I have while we wait for Connor to do that. I took this earlier at over 65 and a half. I think it's still a play at 67 and a half.

I'm going to go with Ramondre Stevenson, 67 and a half i think it's still a play at 67 and a half i'm going to go with ramondre stevenson 67 and a half rushing yards again i kind of agree with connor i do think we see a more pass heavy game plan from the patriots but no damian harris out with a hamstring injury we saw a increased workload just kind of gradually over the last month from stevenson anyway and again like i don't want to get into like tape watching stuff, but like there's no way you watch this dude and don't think that he is a better than average ball carrier. He consistently runs through the first guy.

His, you know, yards after carry or yards after first touches is impressive. He is going to be in a nice spot here. They are going to have no JJ Taylor as well. I think you'll see Brandon Bolden mix in, but obviously more on long down and distance stuff, more on passing game stuff. So I think this is a really nice spot for Stevenson to kind of get 80% of the rushing yards or rushing carries here, which we really haven't seen. And 67 and a half is not a high threshold to get to even in a game where I think they're going to be passing more. So love this spot again. I think this game goes over the total, more conducive to possessions and scoring opportunities. So Ramondre gets his

first time as the bell of the ball. 67 and a half, I think is an attainable number. Alex, what do you got? Yeah, I like the spot as well. I'm very bullish on Ramond Dre as a talent. I think it's hard not to be, having watched the guy play. Yeah, he's massive, nimble on his feet, very explosive as well. He's also the type of runner, in my opinion, and I think this is the sort of scenario that is going to be optimal for him to kind of have a spike game, is the more touches he gets, and I know this is common with a lot of running backs, but yeah,

just some of the limited sample size we have of him, the more touches he gets, he he's a grinder. He wears a defense down in my opinion. So yeah, I think him coming in with a pretty much a floor of 12 to 14 carries is going to do wonders for him. Yeah. It is not fun tackling that guy in the third and fourth quarter so yeah i really like the spot as well uh yeah i think it's going to be a fun one to watch and yeah again just kind of a bet on talent too and him kind of maximizing that first opportunity and you know i know the jj taylor stuff actually does kind of matter he has impacted a little bit

when he's been active as far as how Brandon Bolden mixes in and those things too. He is not going to be there. So just Stevenson and Bolden here. And I think Stevenson, another guy that can break a long run here in a big, big way, was instrumental in that game that we saw before the bye against Buffalo. So let's dig into another question. We got our boy, Dan Rivera,

shout out to baby calves. Dan is the man. Thanks for all that you do, buddy. You and your tiny calves hanging out with us. This is a question about movie franchises. Who is the worst bad guy? For example, Lord Vandermort. Alex, am I saying that correctly? You are. Just a bad villain. He talks about him getting punked by a baby and a teenager. Voldemort, yeah. What did you say?

Vandermort. Have you ever never watched Harry Potter? I've never seen any Harry Potter movies. Harry Potty? What is wrong with you? What's going on? I love you, dude. What the hell? I have never seen any Harry Potter? What is wrong with you? What is going on? I have never seen any Harry Potter movies. I have never seen...

That's actually not true. But I have seen, I think, one Marvel movie. Dude. So I want to... This is an interesting question. I do want to mention, though, I believe the second part of the question, does Dan mention Hans Gruber? He doesn't mention hans gruber i know who hans gruber is that is a

fantastic movie and doesn't fit into this category of harry potter and okay so he's asking for the best villain in a franchise or a trilogy so that makes this question uh on the surface a lot more difficult because you know you can look at I consider my I'm a self-proclaimed cinephile so yeah looking at films we're looking at films where there has been a villain you know over at least a sequel or a trilogy there's not a lot of great trilogies that even exist in my opinion therefore having you know a villain that has lasted the duration of two to three films and yeah there's just slim picking so i was a little bit more hoping for maybe like a top three greatest villains uh in cinematic history uh looking at trilogies or franchises

though i think darth vader is obviously probably the most obvious answer um considering you know he's a phenomenal villain he's been a villain in multiple films uh so yeah i think his story uh is great so yeah hard to argue there i I also considered the Terminator. However, as we know, he was a villain in the first film. And then in Terminator 2, he becomes the hero of the story. So I wasn't sure that he is necessarily applicable. And then oftentimes when you look at great trilogy films, there'll be just a single villain in one of those films. And then they die off.

And then like a Die Hard series, for instance, they have a different villain you know in one of those films and then they die off and then like a diehard series for instance they have a a different villain in every film so yeah if we're looking for a villain that has appeared throughout the entire uh you know trilogy there's just really not many uh to choose from yeah so first of all producer sal i resent the photo here of tom brady um being labeled a villain i think it's very fair very fair i mean um it's disrespectful so i will say i'm just so i'm not i'm not a big i just not a big movie guy part of it connor first of all i'm older than you so like i was on the i was getting on the team when you were like you know like going with your buddies and having runts and watching Harry Potter movies. Marvel is just not my thing.

This is kind of what I do, but I also am a big sports guy. I do like TV, so I want to get into the mix here from a TV franchise standpoint and throw out Cersei Lannister as one of the best villains ever. Incredible performance.

The show, unfortunately, had one of the most unceremonious endings to a television in television history. So I don't disagree, but I also think that in itself is still also a little over. I think we overreacted because I think we had such high expectations and like we had these long layoffs between six and seven and seven and eight and we had all kind of started to think about what we wanted it to be and how we thought it was going to end and i totally agree that it was rushed i totally think it could have been better but i still think it was terrific television and i still think the first six seasons and you know into even part of the seven were so good that it makes it that it's kind of okay if you re-watch it and without any expectations i think you're still really

enjoying what you watched i have to respectfully disagree here i think the ending just completely tarnished the legacy i'm a massive fan of game of thrones as well i thought the first four seasons were arguably the best four seasons in television history. So as a result of these expectations, I will concede that where they set the bar so high that yes, from just a pure entertainment standpoint, the final season was visually stunning. The score was exceptional. The action sequences were cool. I'm not debating any of that. But yeah, when you have a show that is so rich in dialogue, so faithful to the novels, and just this incredible adaptation of George R.R. Martin's work, and then just, to me, it just fell off a complete cliff from a narrative storytelling standpoint. All of the things that i loved about the show went out the window whether it was teary and being clever he was just relegated to cock jokes at the end of the show to cersei just drank wine and just watched everything happen she was no longer this like

you know incredibly villainous person that was so cunning or yeah just to me like all the greatest aspects that were prevalent in the early part of the show just were gone and then danny's turn to a villain was so incredibly rushed and just did not feel like genuine or authentic it was just not good in my opinion so i will concede that Cersei is certainly a great villain. Game of Thrones' first four seasons, in my opinion, some of the greatest finest television ever made. I did want to point out an answer

that I do think I need to mention. That is Hannibal Lecter, who has appeared in multiple films. I will say, obviously Silence of the Lambs being a phenomenal job by Sal right there. Silence of the Lambs being an excellent film.

Red Dragon, not so much. Hannibal, not so much either. But yeah, Hannibal, Lecter, and Anthony Hopkins' portrayal uh is phenomenal for fans of the character there is a film made by michael mann the filmmaker who made uh films like heat and last of the mohicans he made a film um called manhunter in the early 1980s and brian cox who is the lead on succession Succession who plays the patriarch of the family

actually is Hannibal Lecter so for fans yeah so for fans of Silence of the Lambs or Brian Cox obviously a lot of new fans from Succession McDonald's commercial fan you can watch Brian Cox

who's a phenomenal actor portray Hannibal Lecter in the 1980s. William Peterson, he's also a famous actor from like CSI and SVU and stuff like that, directed by Michael Mann in the earlier mid-80s. Really cool film. Alex, I didn't know that we needed a cinematic section of 4x4, but we do. I think that you need to head up our cinematography division of 4x4, and we i think that you need to head up our you know cinematography division of 4 for 4 and we're just going to start our own content off of that because i mean you are clearly passionate about this when you're citing the score of a show you haven't seen in a year i mean

that is a lot on the winds of winter episode 10 the score in that there's like a solid five minutes of silence it is incredible it is incredible and i know that that's late and it's post books and like no but that was just drinking wine and she watches the scepter explode and like she gets hit with the face with the candle underneath the septum bear yeah it was incredible incredible television so that was incredible television that was like one of the best endings to a to a show that was phenomenal i'll quickly add favorite my favorite villains here oh my god oh that's me as buffalo bill in the baskets oh man uh there i feel

like there's some low-hanging fruit you guys missed the joker awesome villain i mean just well only one though that was a problem connor yeah that's true heath ledger i think the best one of the best acting performances of all time in my opinion um and then also i think just like over the course darth vader is a great iconic villain that is one of the tops and very low hanging fruit. But again, I think it's, I think Palpatine deserves some mention as well.

The emperor Palpatine, he was also like just the most evil foil. So like Darth Vader, obviously as Anakin Skywalker had some redeemable qualities and we watched his fall from, you know, this person with eternal hope into, you know into one of the most villainous characters ever. Here's a cool piece of trivia.

So that fight between Darth Maul, right, and Obi-Wan Kenobi and Qui-Gon Jinn, so that is a great score. That score is called Duel of the Fates, and the reason it's called D duel of the fates and the reason it's called duel of the fates is because that whoever won that fight would ultimately uh like good or evil was going to prevail so obviously if qui-gon jinn had beaten darth maul then anakin skywalker would have not developed into Darth Vader.

And then with Qui-Gon Jinn dying, who was Anakin's father figure at that time, that led to Anakin making ultimately the transition to the dark side and becoming Darth Vader. So I always wondered why that was called Duel of the Fates, and that is why I was really happy to learn that recently. I love it. Back to our regularly scheduled programming. programming yeah sound makes a good point the uh comments are conflicted you know we have you know um people are coming people are going they're not sure what to do but we appreciate you hanging out with us um i'll have another problem toss out there. Connor and I tag teamed on a Debo Samuel under 46 and a half receiving yards on Debo.

And that's painful. We've been on some Debo overs of late. But the last three games, Debo has an 8% target share. He has three catches on seven targets in the last three games, combining for 49 total yards, which is basically what this number is. And now we have them and a 10 point favorite at home, Elijah Mitchell likely sitting here. And then we got Debo who's handled six,

eight and six carries the last three games as well. So I feel like this is a spot where if they're going to get Debo the ball with his groin, probably not being a hundred percent. It's probably a little bit mixed in on the ground. Probably a pretty limited passing game look for Debo here, and that's minus 115 on DraftKings. So I know that we have been on some overs on Debo, but we have to shift with how things are going,

and this is just not how he's being used right now, and this is not the week to go with them chasing passing overs. So Debo under 46.5, widely available connor and i both on that so yeah i think you have a russian prop uh we know what no but okay that's a good look i think that that'll probably come out i think in like the low 20s maybe even or like like high teens uh that could be a smash uh because as soon as elijah mitchell out i think that entirely shifts his role like that's like massively shifts what he's going to do so that's why like as soon as you hit that new elijah mitchell's out um definitely i thought it was a great play yeah just you know we talked about on the wednesday show too just like hey look this eight percent target share

three games three games played so that's again he missed one in the middle there's last three played games he has an eight percent target share that That's like – we're talking like Chris Conley numbers here. We're talking like Freddie Swain type of target share numbers. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's a good look. I also have another prop here that we got down on that I think is still around in some spots.

It might be 21.5 now here. But I took Mac Jones over 20.5 completions completions as soon as Damian Harris was ruled out. I kind of explained that earlier. But I also like it at 21 and a half. That's totally fine there if you can find it at regular juice. He's gone over that number. It doesn't even matter. Eight of 12 games this season, excluding last week's win game,

which I just don't even think that really counts towards our sample size. We knew that it was like 25 to 30 mile per hour wins the entire game. They had a very clear strategy. They just weren't going to throw the ball so like i don't think that that is relevant to our sample of what we're going to see here uh and then so considering that now you have indy fourth and run ddboa i mean they're like 15th and past the ddoa but like bill belichick has made it clear throughout you know basically his entire tenure that like he doesn't he tries to go to the path of least resistance and, like, will specifically focus on attacking weaknesses,

at least relative weaknesses, which I think the Colts has passed the event. So especially without his lead back, I think that, like, completions is probably the way to go. I think they're still going to run the ball at the Nunes point. I think they're still going to have plenty of success. But I like the completions here. And I think they actually could go, like, a ton of quick short passes i think that could actually be like people are too focused on what they saw previously and that the recency bias is like

overwhelming uh but i'm willing to go back and totally you know revert that and go the overall mac jones completions i took it too i love it i think it makes a lot of sense we've kind of danced around and i think this is a good time to go into a spot where we maybe have the middle situation based off of how some stuff has moved i took uh earlier in the week shout out by our guy travis um we've been kind of tracking kendrick bourne uh overs of late and it's worked out pretty well and again i think we're kind of getting hung low numbers still especially after the buffalo game i I jumped on Kendrick Bourne over minus 115 on points, but I got over 35 and a half. It was 36 and a half at the time on points bets.

And again, like he's topped this in eight of his last 10 and is running a route on about 80% of the drawbacks of late. So that's a really nice spike for him. And, you know, kind of relegating, you know, Nelson Aguilar to, you know, mixing in instead of being, you know, an alpha in two receiver sets. So Bourne got steamed up a little bit. And Alex, you took Bourne on the other side. I did.

Yeah, it was all the way up to 44 and a half yards as the members of my Slack who are viewing this right now. this is the only play I've actually called this week so yeah I felt at 44 and a half offered some value for the under there yeah I was surprised that it moved all the way from 34 and a half up to 44 and a half yeah as far as Bourne's involvement in the offense we obviously yeah he's played well absolutely um mac jones does spread the ball out a ton as we know lots of receiving options on new england also going to run the ball some so yeah i did felt that it offered some value at 44 and a half but yeah this is a decent spot in my opinion where uh i feel like there's quite a few range of

outcomes where it lands somewhere between 34 and 45 yards. So I can see us both catching this one. I think that's an actionable middle almost too. Like if it's still out there, like I feel pretty confident that he's, he's kind of in that range. Decent a dots again, you can do it on maybe,

you know, three catches, but yeah, that's it. That's interesting. This is kind of, again, this is how we handled the Devante Adams thing too.

Like I had Devante Adams in my notes as an overlook for me this week because of this the situation without marla humphrey and then to see uh you know uh influential book or you know influential sites you know steam his under it was a beautiful spot where you know maybe we both win at the end of the day i don't know but i definitely like getting in on the plus money where we got to vante adams uh earlier in the show so good stuff there let's jump into some of our questions we are flying through here it's crazy how like how are we gonna be able to fill an hour and then we get to and it's like oh we're 56 minutes in i'm talking about game of thrones for like 15 minutes so that's probably game of thrones deserves 15 minutes of talk.

We could have gone a half an hour. I had a lot more to say. I had a lot more to say too, frankly. Well, let's do it. We'll do it next week. Shot Props. First of all, Shot Props gave us a hockey winner last week. Was that him?

Shout out to Shot Props. I want to give a massive shout out to Shot Props. He is an awesome guy. Gotten to know him through my DMS. He is helping me out with some graphics that I'm really excited to unveil coming up in the next few weeks and some other stuff. But yeah, you will see some fresh prop stars graphics when you see my schedule,

when my four for four basketball article is going to come out and all of my remaining NFL content as well. So yeah, shout out to shop props. He's the man. Any betting tips for beginners, the things that you wish you knew earlier, Connor. I mean, that's a lot. I think that you kind of have to learn by making your own mistakes, to be honest. So like, I can tell you whatever, you know, you know whatever i've learned but like i think just even like in life generally like

it's it's really hard to like you know it takes a lot it takes like someone to be really really wise to like learn from other people like truly learn from other people's mistakes until you make the mistake yourself like you know i i don't know i mean just generally i don't learn by you know making the mistake myself so or until i make the mistake myself. So it's just one of those things like that low limits, you know, bet like small, start your bankroll small, small and test your theories. Like if you think that, you know, play players coming off of whatever, like running a certain amount of routes or like whatever being phased out of the offense, like, you know, throw five bucks on it, throw 10 bucks on it. You know, I think that those things kind of matter. Like just like start small and test your theories because I see too many people lose way too much money too fast. Thinking like the Dunning-Kruger, like they think that they know more than they actually do. And like, so that's what I would say.

Start small, work your way up, find people you can trust. I think that's really important. And also as Maiden Focus mentioned, be aware of juice. I mean, avoid as much as you can, like be very careful because that can make a huge difference in your long haul because you're betting minus 125s every week instead of minus 110s every week. That difference can actually be the difference between you having a profitable season

and not profitable season, which can obviously alter your confidence, change your entire approach when maybe it doesn't need to be. I think that's phenomenal advice. I also subscribe to the idea that experience is ultimately the best teacher as well. I would also say to track as much and record your results as much as possible. The more information or data that you collect about yourself, you will learn a lot about yourself as a better, where your strengths are, when your weaknesses are.

Record the closing line value of bets that you're placing as well. That will be a good indicator whether or not you were on the right side or not. You can also kind of figure out where your leaks are, your strengths are, whether it's certain specific categories. So, yeah, the more data that you compile and record as far as your results are concerned, I feel like are very, very beneficial. Connor also talked about experience. I feel like, yeah, it requires a ton of experience. I will also say having mentors in the space, very helpful. I've always tried to seek out people who are smarter than me, pick their brains as much as possible. That was very beneficial. Furthermore, I feel like market instincts is a very underrated aspect to being a successful sports better. And there's a lot of different directions you can go

with that. I could go on and on about that. But yeah, even just studying sometimes other markets, I feel like can give you a leg up as well. I know some sports betters that know very little about sports themselves, but they have a lot of deep fundamental understanding of how markets work. And as a result, they're really successful. So, yeah, there's a lot of things you can be doing. And I think Connor laid out a bunch. But, yeah, record your results. Just talk to people who are smart and who have more experience.

And, yeah, don't be afraid to research other markets, even traditional financial markets. You can learn a lot. Great advice, fellas. I agree with those. Nothing to add that is better than that stuff too. So also he wants to know why doesn't glue stick to the inside of the bottle? I think that's a great question. It does, I feel, when it gets to the like, at least with Elmer's.

I always found that like at the end of an Elmer's or if the Elmer's had been uncapped for a bit, like it's very crucial for the Elmer's or even like super glue to stay like perfectly airtight and sealed because you have a lot of problems otherwise. Yeah. I mean how does it stick to the inside of the bottle i mean there's a i'm like you know i could guess that there's some certain you know lining that allows it not to be uh but like gorilla glue or like you know yeah like you know how that works i don't know i mean someone a lot smarter than he thought of it did you guys ever glue your fingers together i would say you get super glue you get super glue on your fingers, and it is literally the worst two hours of your life. I find that fun.

You're a psychopath. You do that and watch TV and watch movies, Alex? It's like, oh, this scores. I play the score with my blue fingers. That's great. Nero guy wants to know what makes the awful gambler such a great dude. Hashtag man of the people. Alex, you said you wanted to get to this one.

I do. Shout out to the awful gambler. He's epic. His name is Scott. For those of you who aren't aware, he's a frequent listener, longtime supporter. He's also a those of you who aren't aware, he's a frequent listener, long-time supporter. He's also a supporter of you guys as well. He is in my Slack.

Shout out to Scott. Yeah, he had a very, very short-lived, brief capping career. I believe his one and only bet that he gave out was on a Mitchell Trubisky rushing prop. Unfortunately, Trubisky finished with zero rushing yards in that game. That also signaled the end of the awful gambler's capping career. But, yeah, shout-out to him. He's a great guy. Shout-out Scott.

Scott, let's go. There he is. There he is. Love it. All right, what else? Let's go see. We're running out of time and we'll get to producer Sal's. Give me a minute here.

My computer is about to die. So you're going to have to field the questions here, Alex. Classic Connor. All right. Here. I'm game for that. Yeah. He forgets that we did this for multiple weeks without him.

We did hold this down like it was nothing. Shut up, Matt. uh stoked for this podcast had a lot to do with a plus 37 unit prop cash last weekend that's awesome hell yeah matt uh congratulations on that that's a nice that's an amazing season i was gonna say some some cappers are like they have they finished the season up 37 units and that's a unbelievable you should be proud of it that's that yeah that's like historic yeah that is fantastic so um let's see this is this vinny wants to know is this the right place for combat calves anonymous yeah uh your little calves are welcome here you don't mind if you skip legs day you're welcome here regardless uh shout out dan dance san dan actually gets in here and says he has nice big calves.

So Dan, integrity is important to us. We talked about at the top of the show. Don't fill the chat with lies. Otherwise we need to relegate you to podcast only. There are multiple narratives regarding Dan's calves. I'll just leave it at that. Yeah. People talking about they appreciate the uh quality over quantity that is

where we're at too we appreciate that too we have uh ryan p wants to know bolden uh over 20 and a half receiving yards with harris out should get most of the receiving work out of the backfields excuse me i would say that receiving yards are from the running back standpoint something that we've talked about most weeks is something that i from the running back standpoint something that we've talked about most weeks is something that i wouldn't say a blanket statement that we try to avoid there just is a lot of variance in projections in those uh you can have these instances where taylor himself the other week caught six balls for like 10 yards and that happens he does have obvious breakaway ability but uh that's not a play for me. And I would just be careful with the market.

We had his receptions that week as well. So we'll take that. We cast him. We'll take it wherever we can get it. Ryan also wants to know about James Robinson, anytime touchdown plus 105, a lot of narratives swirling around Robinson this week with Urban Meyer out to dry.

Any thoughts on Robinson at plus money, plus 105? I typically avoid touchdown props unless there is some just overwhelming value on it, which I don't really tend to find. Yeah, I think they're kind of high variance props. Personally, I know some people have success with them, but yeah, just not something I have a large foray into. So I feel like that number is somewhat reasonable or efficient as far as I'm concerned. So don't have a strong take.

I agree. We'll get a team total, you know, in like the high teens. And I know it's a nice matchup against the Texans. But again, we're that's you're projecting them for roughly a little fewer than two touchdowns, right around two touchdowns, and there are a lot of instances where he does not get that, and those implied odds are telling you that it's basically 50-50. Ryan, I know you spend a lot of time with sides, totals, team totals and stuff. I'm curious what your take. I was actually kind of surprised.

I mean, I understand the narrative of Jacksonville's first game without Urban Meyer at the helm. You know, teams typically rally in those spots for being an emotional spot. But four-point favorites for this Jags team seemed like a lot of points to me on paper or on the surface. Is that a spot you like, or are you back in the number? Connor and I talked about a Jags team under on our Wednesday show pre urban news. It's kind of been a stay away for me at this point,

but it does feel like maybe something I get back into. Cause it's, we're continuing to see that get pounded and I'm just interested to see where that settles. And if that's a number, who are the Jags four point favorites over, how are they four point favorites over anybody? Like up to five and a half at one point today.

That is absurd. I would take the Texans all all day and yeah five and a half point dogs it's insane to me sometimes like that's one of those spots where it's like gosh i know it's probably the right play but like i just don't have especially in a week like this without what's going on i just i don't have an appetite for texans even at plus money either so it's like fair another one of those points where it's like there are so many options on the board and I feel like that's probably the right play and it's like a track it and look back and see if it's maybe something I need to pull the trigger on moving forward.

But it's an easy cross off and you move on. I actually parlayed a bunch of team total unders. We talked about it on our Wednesday show and I decided to pull the trigger. I took the under on like Jags team. Jags team total under was one of mine um and i'll share this live parlay here um okay so i took under so there was a parlay here where you get a little bit of juice on these with a points bet because they like kind of like juice

their team totals but i hate it still worse it's trash but i probably had all of them so i think it ended up being all right so i took giants under 18 and a half, Panthers under 18 and a half, Lions under 18 and a half, Texans under, or Jags under 22 and a half, and Jets under 18 and a half. So I took them all over, like they were above the 17 and a half threshold because PointsBet doesn't offer 17 and a half.

I would have parlayed that. But yeah, I thought all all those are good plays individually don't parlay all of them uh unless you're ready for pain i'm sure that's gonna lose but i thought it was fun and i did it for the brand because i talked about on the wednesday show and i think that's important to be genuine and yeah so here we are with a parlay of all those that warms the cuckolds of my heart. A parlay with the team total unders? Like that is like – I mean, dude, it's going to hit. I mean, it's going to hit.

It is going to hit, dude. I mean, yeah, Panthers under 18.5. I mean, that money is already spent. Points bet, you suck by the way. Like first of all, give us the actual number. Like don't get dumb here and like take away the key numbers and make us pay extra money for you know 18 and a half when that's not you know it's just not a give me a 17 and a

half don't charge me the extra 20 cents for a number that is not really uh in the range of outcomes so we're not getting sponsored by points bet uh next year yeah well not after the alex alex len bet the other day either prof did you see that the points bet five or ten was it like five and a half assists or five and a half assists i did you are you are in the discord okay i'm in the discord i told you i wasn't kidding yet yep we hammered that and uh he got zero assists so thank you points bets uh beauty yep all right uh how and why did the broncos go back to featuring melvin gordon So thank you, PointsBets. Beauty. Yeah. All right. How and why did the Broncos go back to featuring Melvin Gordon?

Assumption of rational coaching. The opposite of that here. I have no idea what's going on. The season's shot, and they're trying to preserve the future of their franchise. This is the only reasonable explanation, because if they're interested in winning football games this season, that is not the move. Yep. Shot props, good joke.

Taysom involved with the Church of Jesus Christ in the Latter-day Saints. Well played. Jordan wants to know, Jordan, the DFS guy for us here at 444, if you guys had to describe this betting week as a movie, what movie would that be? I would say maybe like Eternal sunshine of the spotless mind dazed and confused it's a it's a rough it's a rough week um okay what about uh what about uh shawshank redemption just really long and painful the entire time and there's just no happiness the

entire i'm the prison warden. Yeah. He gave his money ball. He can't determine who's Jonah Hill. That's fair, I guess. I love Jonah Hill, actually. Low-key thing. He's one of my favorites. I mean, it's definitely a weakness.

I'm a big fan. He's hilarious. He's a great actor. Yeah, he does multiple different kinds of roles. Nothing wrong with Jonah Hill. He's awesome. Lead into it buddy you're okay he's amazing well okay my my fiance is not a fan and you know i think we have a big difference in opinions there and i'm i'm uh you know low jonah hill stand does she not have a sense of humor dude that's what i'm saying i mean just so many good movies don't answer that i know'm sorry, I didn't mean to put you on the spot Super bad, right?

You won't listen this far on the show, don't worry Ryan P, what about Hines Over 16.5 receiving yards? Pass for me, again, he has not been really involved much 16.5 is not a high threshold But again, like This is going to be a Jonathan Taylor week And you're going to sweat that Hines went out.

I think again, watch him get, you know, a 17 yard catch in the first quarter now. But like, I still don't think it's a good play. And I think that's also probably some good advice, too, is, you know, try to have a process and lean into the reasons why you make yes or no decisions on bets. Don't be results oriented in chase. That is great advice. Yeah. Cause just because he has one reception for 17 yards and finishes with one target does not mean it was a good bet. And the inverse of that is true as well. You know, say you have his over and he ends up with six targets and, you know, fails to reach 16 yards. And so, yeah, yeah.

It's always good to not be results oriented and look at things without bias. And yeah, just be honest with yourself. It'll go a long way. Justin wants to know our thoughts on Aaron Rodgers passing yards and touchdowns combination. We had 270 and a half passing yards, two and a half touchdowns. It's a lot of touchdowns. I'm not sure if this question is a parlayed question or individually. Two and a half touchdowns is an over bet i am not going to make

very very often um they do have a team total around 25 and a half 26 i think that's an over bet um and then you guys are talking about the rogers passing yards as well any thoughts there i initially just looking at it thought it was i mean it's higher than it's been i want to say uh over the least the last 10 weeks or so he's been in the kind of the 240 to 260 range so yeah seeing him in the mid 280s kind of just caught my attention knowing that this baltimore secondary is literally without you know marlon humphrey, Chuck Clark, Deshaun Elliott, obviously Marcus Peters. They are as banged up as a unit can be,

coupled with the fact the strength of the Ravens' defense is their front seven. They have a very formidable run defense. It does seem like a clear path or something that Rodgers would take advantage of is an undermanned secondary that hasn't been great already. So yeah, that does seem like a stay away, even though it was a high number. Looking closer at why it is a high number then kind of makes sense to me. Yeah. All right. My flowers aren't blooming and the weekend is coming. I need to go to the Home Depot flower section here in 54 minutes. So we're going to fly through the next is coming. I need to go to the Home Depot flower section here in 54 minutes. So we're going to fly through the next few questions.

You know, I don't have the backyard like Alex does. Doesn't look like there's any lines yet, but what do you think of Darnell Mooney this week? Connor? Yeah, I mean, should be a good spot. I think it just depends on – like, I feel like Fields and him have always had kind of a good connection since day one. So I think that there's – it's an good spot. I think it just depends on – like, I feel like Fields and him have always had kind of a good connection since day one. So I think that there's – it's an interesting spot.

But the issue is that, like, I think the market already kind of, like, reacts to that accordingly. Like, they probably put him in, like, the mid-50s. I mean, so I don't know. Probably just depends on what the number's at. If you can get, like, a high 40s, I'm interested. Nate wants to know about Devontae Adams' longest reception, over 27. a half yards

yeah but at the same time like i can get plus money on his full game scope so give me that's right where this is kind of a singular event this kind of feels almost like a touchdown prop bet which is fine i don't think that these are are bad plays per se um i think you can find some edges there if you do a little bit of homework but in this instance i'd much rather take the plus money on davante adams uh where we talked about that earlier in the show matt wants to know about uh cordero patterson over 40 and a half rushing yards this week in santa clara against the niners they've talked about dialing back his workload a little bit which i'm interested to see what that looks like at cordell patterson also a guy that can get there on very few carries Alex any

thoughts on Cordell yeah it was very bizarre to see him healthy on the during the entire fourth quarter I think even into the third quarter he was on the sidelines after having a pretty productive day last week I know I took his over he ended up going over 55 and a half rushing yards I believe he finished with 16 carries, which he had midway through the third quarter. And then he just wasn't on the field anymore afterwards, which was puzzling. And then, yeah, looking afterwards, he didn't suffer an injury.

It was said that, you know, there was just some veteran rest, but the game was close and he was running well. So, yeah, it was kind of a little bit of cause for concern i wouldn't surprise me i guess if the falcons are kind of capping uh his weekly touches probably they don't want him to exceed 18 to 20 touches on a weekly basis so yeah that's just something you have to factor in when you're looking at his uh week-to-week projections. I agree with that. Let's see. You guys continue to fire off here. So we appreciate it. Lots of game of Thrones takes in here.

If you haven't gone back and watched it, I recommend going back and rewatch it folks. It is again, I understand Alex's pain, but it is, it's terrific television show and shame on yourself for disrespecting. It's the novels are great as well. but it's a terrific television show. And shame on you, Sal, for disrespecting it. The novels are great as well.

Imagine reading. I mean, if you haven't read the Harry Potter books, you haven't lived, so you know. Shop Props, greatest TV villain, Toby from The Office. Great call-out. I would go Tony Soprano. I like that. I like that.

Interesting. Tony is one of those. He's kind of that, you know, kind of started that lovable hero and an anti-hero role. That's like Walter White. Yes. Uh, Villanelle,

if you are, if you've never watched, um, that I'm killing Eve, killing Eve is a terrific television show. Villanelle is terrific. Uh, highly recommend that if you haven't,

she is also that, uh, anti-hero role where she's a bad person, but, it is hard not to love Villanelle is terrific highly recommend that if you haven't she is also that anti-hero role where she's a bad person but it is hard not to love Villanelle Brian Cox is an amazing villain on Succession as well he is also shout out to Villanelle very easy

on the eyes which also makes it easy to watch Sticky Bandits also good call from Vinny shout out Home Alone Sticky Bandits Also good call from Vinny Shout out Home Alone Sticky Bandits Alright Let's see other actual questions for us

We can move on to our Our picks of the week here Sal We're going to push the hour and a half On a show that I thought I told my wife 45 minutes And we're going to actually have our longest show of the season If we remember our first show was 22 minutes. Yeah.

We were in Vegas. We didn't know what we were doing with this show yet. I was really nervous. I hadn't been on stream very much. I was afraid to straight to talk. We didn't know what to do. And you know, here we are and you guys just want to hang out with us and we super duper

appreciate it. All right. Sal, your turn. Producer Sal's player prop tool bet of the week. Hit us. All right. We'll wait for it. Oh, my God. He did it.

Davis Mills. Davis Mills. Bash over. Over. Connor, we have been, you know, Davis Mills unders over and over again. Slight edge. This is plus odds, though. Even money, basically.

222.5 against the Jags. Not showing a ton of value here in our player prop tool. Again, this is available with a subscription. We have the same tool for NBA props. Again, allows you to select the sports book. You can filter by team or player specifically adjust props as well. If they move or you have some offshores,

but Connor, I'll go to you. What are your thoughts here on Davis mills? I mean, dude, I mean, we talked about someone that Wednesday show. I kind of like the over.

I think that this is actually a decent play. I've banged the drum on Davis mills i mean dude actually i mean we talked about someone that wednesday show i kind of like the over i think that this is actually a decent play i've banged the drum on uh davis mills under throughout the season but those were against awesome awesome defenses now you're looking at you know he threw for 330 yards last week in seattle 26 and past the dvoa like jacksonville's bottom five in most past defense metrics um i mean, I think that he just, like, had a really rough run of schedule because he had to face against, like, you know, the Cardinals, the Patriots, the Bills, the, you know, Panthers. Like, those are really, really tough matchups. So, I think the over actually is a legitimate play.

I know another – again, another sharp group played down to, like, 240. I think 220 is more than reasonable to take the over, especially at even money. I think that's fine. I'm not trying to get myself to actually tout it and tell our subscribers that they should put their own hard-earned money on Davis Mills, but I'm pretty close. I mean, 215, 217, I would do it.

Can I tell you guys what just happened? What? My cat just threw up on my foot. I'm not kidding i'd show you it's gross yeah my asthmatic cat who always likes to enter the room when i'm streaming making like really loud audible sounds just threw up on my foot oh that's so gross we're gonna have to wrap this up dude that's that's awful're going to wrap it up anyway. We're going to have moccasins too. I mean, your asthmatic cat heard about us betting a Davis Mills over

and proceeded to throw up all over your foot. I think if you were listening loud enough, you could have gone. It was loud. You guys are the best. We did not get to your questions. We apologize. Hit us up on Twitter, at MoveTheLineNFL or you can hit us anywhere uh individually too we really appreciate it so uh again we appreciate hanging out with us even though we didn't have as many props as we typically do

but hopefully we can win you some money again this week so again for connor and alex i'm ryan we'll see you again next time.