Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 17 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: January 2, 2022

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, Connor, Ryan and Alex discuss their top Week 17 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  ________________________________________________________________________________________0:00 Week 17 Prop Drop Intro 4:50 Connor Prop No. 1 8:11 Ryan Prop No. 1 10:42 Alex Prop No. 1 14:52 Ryan Prop No. 2 16:52 Connor Prop No. 2 and No. 3 19:34 Alex Prop No. 2 24:03 Ryan Prop No. 3 36:49 Props Betting Cards Recap 38:03 Viewer Props Q + A 1:18:05 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 1:24:35 Week 17 Prop Drop Outro

Hello and welcome to Moving Line, the Prop Drop show. Prop Drop presented by BetSperts. Download the BetSperts app today. You can track your bets there. Lots of great stuff coming in 2022. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined by two of my favorite fellow Prop D gens, as always. First is my man, Connor Allen. Connor, what's going on, buddy? Not too much. I'm not rocking the backdrop still. I am, you know, on the road right now and maybe for the foreseeable future. But according to our listener here, you know on the road right now and maybe for the foreseeable future but

uh according to our listener here you know daniel rivera uh i was not the one having issues leading up to the show we were having a deep heart-to-heart conversation about uh how great the show is so you know what uh suck it dan you know people plucking our bets that's okay people plucking our bets that's part of the business uh it you flattered that groups out there are using our picks for their content. I think that's good for them. and save yourself some time. Again, as always, hitting in the third spot, ready to drive us in when we get on. Connor leads off. He bunts his way on to first. I'll take a pitch here and there.

Not afraid to walk my way on to second so that Propstars can drive us home. What's going on, buddy? What's up, Ryan, Connor? Great to see you. My mom always told me that imitation is the highest form of flattery. So yeah, to me

that is a good sign if that is the case. Furthermore, what would you guys say if I told you that my backdrop was actually a backdrop and that bear was digital or was not real? Would you guys be freaked out? Also, typically in the digital backgrounds you can see

a little bit of like moving um if it was something animated where that bear came to life that'd be pretty badass um yeah that happens after hours okay i'm sure it does i'm sure a lot of things happen after hours uh out there in the garden so oh man should be we'll have to have that as a you know an after-hour show after dark prop drop after dark for some uh some you know in the playoff so you get close to the super bowl so all right uh wherever you are listening or watching we appreciate it hopefully you're watching here on youtube live uh this is again our second show of the week we do the wednesday game by game stuff we're rounding into here. I cannot believe we're in week 17 that we are almost done with this, this grind and we'll miss NFL props. But again,

we're still in the NBA streets. So you can check that out at four for four. I hit our show notes for four.com slash plans. You can access our NBA stuff here through the end of February, and then we'll flip it again. All right. Now we're massively discounted because of the way that our calendar works is that we stop, you we stop February 28th, pick back up with our new year in March. So you can start up again on March 1st, get a sub at 444. That's going to take you again through the next February.

So I'll be looking out for that. We'll start to hit you with some of that stuff to remind you that it's coming. If your subscription is dying, we want to make sure that you are up and running because we are in the NBA streets. Prop drop or prop stars himself is in our discord, firing off props a couple of times a week. So you want to check that out as well. So we are still dealing with a little bit of the COVID stuff, right? Like it's a little limited and we're getting a little bit, that's kind of why we pushed this to today where we're on a Saturday instead of on a Friday. We typically are because books are very hesitant. We still have all this new loophole where there's the five-day rule instead of the 10-day rule. So we have some guys that maybe popped up on COVID lists on Monday

and Tuesday and Carson Wentz, for instance, and now they're activated and they're going to be ready to go. So the books are waiting until we have all that information, probably till Sunday morning, uh, where we get like the full release of stuff. So I know that I have a couple of spots that I want to share that aren't even things that we've made, you know, bets yet. Cause they're not out there. Um, but we do have a few each. And then as always, our favorite part is getting to your listener questions as well. Producer Sal is a couple from the prop drop tool, Tool, which is rolling our prop tool on 4-4. Sal has just been picking winners off of that bad boy for 16 weeks. So I'm sure he's going to keep it going for 17 here. So again, in limited fashion, we typically have been

doing four each. I think we kind of have three, you know, two or three, and then we'll just do our best handling your questions. So Connor, kick us off. What is the first prop for you on brand and one that I tailed as well? Yeah. So one quick thing here that I thought was interesting about the COVID thing with the new five-day rule and something I mentioned on our Wednesday show and has actually panned out here in this instance and something that worked out. And so basically with the new five-day rule, regardless of your vaccination status, as soon as you test positive, you have five days and you can be activated from the COVID list without another test. And all you have to do is self-report your

symptoms. So my first play here, Zach Wilson under 203 and a half passing yards. We played this at 210 kind of midweek, but now we're looking like Jamison Crowder is doubtful. Elijah Moore was not activated off the list. Corey Davis is not there. So he's basically throwing to no one. We've seen how it's performed the last few weeks. Now he gets a pretty strong Tampa Bay secondary.

And where I say this panned out in terms of the COVID list, Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy Bunting were both added to the COVID list early in the week. But with the way the rule works, my take is basically like none of these guys, unless they're truly, truly sick, like they're not going to say that they're feeling anything. So like they're always going to play for better or worse.

So I think at this point, they're good to go. And I think that's kind of my rule going forward is if they can play, unless they're like hospitalized, they're like going to play. It's a good point, though. You mentioned it on Wednesday. I talked about how I took an early spot where I got tipped off on the Carson Wentz news about a half an hour before it went out there. We took a position on the Raiders at Raiders plus seven.

Wentz got announced out, or COVID. It dropped quickly and then came off the board. plus seven Wentz got announced out or, you know, COVID it, it dropped quickly and then came off the board. And then maybe an hour later, they came out with a new protocol saying that it'd be the five days self reporting instead of the 10 and then ballooned right back up quickly. And, you know, here I was thinking we've got some early action. We're feeling pretty good about ourselves. You know, the group moved on the raiders

plus seven and then within 24 hours it's back up at minus seven because everyone knows the connor's point you'd have to be really really really sick at this point to like kind of tap yourself out and be like well i can't make it so i mean there's something you said for just like like broken bones and like torn acls like you're telling me that they feel like said like, like broken bones and like torn ACLs. Like you're telling me that they feel like a little sick, like the flu and they're not going to play. Like, I mean. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Cantor's with us to hammered Vegas after the wind. I mean, that was so quick.

You know, our group got it ahead of time and yeah, like you said, it's new world, the root, the goalposts are moving in, in live time. So yeah, it's new world. The goalposts are moving in live time. So that's Connor's point. Like, yeah, there might be something to be said for these guys not practicing. Right. So like they have been maybe especially someone maybe unvaccinated that has maybe feeling the symptoms a little bit more is going to come in. We saw it last week, like with Tyreek. Right.

Like he played, but then admitted like he's fatigued as he could possibly be. He wasn't himself. And like, so you maybe see some performance things. Those might be some stuff to be looking at as we kind of see some late things pop here. Maybe some guys that are late actives that we thought maybe weren't going to be coming up. Maybe we are reluctant on them kind of meeting their ceiling performance. So we'll go from there. We'll take it. But I think that that's a good point. You know, this, this, this news news is just we're having to always adjust and change. So we'll do the best that we can here. My first prop of the week is, you know, a little perfect combination, I think, of matchup and narrative and then skill. Cooper Cup over one hundred and six and a half receiving yards. Uh,

this is readily available out there. I got minus one 15 on draft Kings. I know it's wild. We've, I think maybe one other time advised taking a receiving prop over a hundred yards because there are so many outs for this to go poorly, but it's kind of all of those things at once. Right? so we know the narrative is around cooper cup 18 catches 231 yards shy of the single season record and he's 266 yards away from 2000 which has obviously never been done and everyone on the team knows it they seem to be motivated to help him get there um he is top this in eight of 10, which is incredible. Like we know that he has a streak of 14 straight 90 plus yard receiving

games, which is absolutely wild. And now it's this perfect spot against a Raven secondary that has allowed the highest rate of explosive pass plays on the season, 12%, which is 2%, two and a half percent higher than anyone else, which is significant. And then just raw number of explosive plays as well 68 they've allowed so i know it's tough you know there are a lot of outs for how 106 yards can go wrong but absolutely love cooper cup here and think it's a great spot against they're really bad and the game that they need to win too so we don't have to worry about any of those things yeah and the

whole team's talking about like odell was talking about talking about it. He's like, I'm excited for him. You know, like, I mean, they're going to try. Like even, especially if the game gets like in that like 7 to 10 point range, I think they're like, he's going to be like designing plays for Cup just to get him the ball like every play. When someone in your position group is talking about trying to get you there, like that is an extra thing, right? There's like, especially a guy like Odell, who we think has a little ego.

Like this is, he's like, no, we need to get to get this dude not just 231 we need to get him 266 we need to set a new record at 2000 yards so pretty cool and i think you know again like i think there's some of it they'd love to be able to get in there at 16 so that they you know again that's obviously a crazy number but uh i think that they're going to feed cooper cup and i think that the ravens are in trouble trying to stop them they were without you know we know all the injuries they have covet issues now too like one of their only guys that's been a starter at any point this season went on covet yesterday so like they are literally rolling out like the backup of the backup so feel pretty good about that one uh alex what is your first one yeah my first one is DeAndre Swift over 24.5 receiving yards.

I caught this about an hour this came out before we came on air. You can get this at minus 115 on DraftKings. I was really surprised to see a receiving prop for Swift under 30 yards. In my opinion, this number is just way too low for him. Swift is making his return after a two-week absence. He has been practicing in full all week. I also read a quote from Dan Campbell who said he plans to cut Swift loose. So I fully anticipate him receiving a full workload.

I've talked about this at length. I don't typically play running back receptions prop. I feel like there's a lot of inherent volatility in them. But Swift, in my opinion, is one of those rare running backs that has a fairly high floor and is one of the more dynamic receiving backs in the NFL. In his first seven games, he had at least 41 receiving yards in all of them. He eclipsed this total in his first seven games as well. He was averaging 55 receiving yards per game. Then Jamal Williams suffered an injury. Swift kind of transitioned to more of a traditional running back role. He started carrying the ball a lot between the tackles. He had that one outlier

game where he had like 30-something carries as well. Jamal Williams is back healthy in the mix, so I'm banking on Swift kind of assuming that role of a pass catching back, playing on third downs, two-minute drill, passing downs, etc. This is also an excellent matchup on paper. The Seahawks have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing running backs by a gigantic margin as well. They've given up a thousand yards to the position. That's 66 yards per game. The next worst team is the Jets who've surrendered 832 yards. So the Seahawks are obviously very, very vulnerable to opposing receiving running backs. I just feel like this line is honestly a gift for a player of Swiss talent and skill set, an A-plus matchup.

I know Tim Boyle is behind center, but I feel like he's going to check the ball down a ton. I talked about last week with Cortland Sutton how I could just kind of blindfold myself with a player of his skill and talent level at a number this low. I feel the same way with DeAndre Swift, with his receiving line at this number. I will live and I will live and die with the result at 25 yards. When this guy's like average over 40 throughout his career, he's one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL.

So yeah, I just think this is a great number for him uh confession i know dan's watching it in the chat i bet this but i didn't make an official play i didn't want to get i bet it i saw it was too i got 23 and a half it seemed like again very marginal to your point because there's so much variance in these spots but i feel like all the reasons you said it's a great matchup they also talked about like they're gonna rest him next week which is kind of strange so like they're gonna go all in on like getting him some touches and and back in this week and yeah it's

i think weather's gonna be an issue up there too and yeah so good spots uh i bet it but i didn't uh make it a play because yeah they've just been they've been rough this season so and yeah so like shop it out there i know like right it a play because, yeah, they've been rough this season. And, yeah, so shop it out there. I know right there Alex puts it out there, and then it can move instantaneously. It's out there at a few different spots with some varying juice that I'm seeing right now. So depending on your books that you have available, take a look. So, yeah, Will Hill went up to 29.5 as you were talking. Who's the mole?

Who's the mole in the chat? The show's called Move the Line, guys You find the mole in the chat You get free Fork Swag How about that? Yeah, you signed up for Move the Line I heard his name's PootieCon in the Discord Noonan, you want to go next? Because my next two are correlated

So I'll fire off both of mine together If you want to go next? My next two are correlated. Sure. I'll fire off both of mine together if you want to go next. Yeah. Reminder too, again, we'll get to the point when we're done sharing where we're going to handle some of your stuff in the chat and questions. So fire off any questions that you have, things that you're considering, guys that maybe aren't even up there because I'm going to have a list of a couple that I'm interested in sharing as well that I want you to keep an eye on. And so if you have any of those situations too, put them in the chat and we will circle back and get to that. My other one, another one that I have is in the same

game as the previous one that I gave is Sony Michelle. Sony Michelle over 60, I think it's 69 and a half now, 69 and a half rushing yards. I got a 60 and a half at Caesars earlier yesterday. So take a look and shop your books. I think it's just rare that we see a spot where it's probably pretty reasonable, honestly, to project a back to handle 100% of the snaps or at least touches. And I think that's what we have here with with sony we have gerald henderson on the ir we got jake funk and buddy howell who are basically like special teams guys they're going to be the only active backs behind them the care makers thing is a great story

and pretty cool but i don't think he's going to be active this week i don't think he starts eating into sony michelle's role here again they need this game you know we're still playing for the division and proceeding and he's been kind of the man of late last four games since he's taken over as the lead back 22 and a half carries per game 106 yards per game um they're near touchdown favorites we talked about earlier and so we're looking at a floor i think of like 18 to 20 carries here in what should be positive game scripts they're five and a half six point favorites on the road i know as we talked about earlier with cooper cup this is a pass funnel defense but i think with the sheer volume that

he's going to make up for by not coming off the fields if he does get 18 to 20 carries 60 and a half threshold is not very high for him to, to top here. So I like Sony Michelle quite a bit here. And again, I don't think the juice is, is, is a problem anywhere under 70 yards. I feel very, very confident in this play.

Any Sony love. No, I like that. I've looked at this a bunch. I think that it's, I think it's a good play. I don't know. I I've been debating on hugging it in our discord.

So I think it's still there. Yeah. It's good out there. I don't know. I've been debating on hugging it in our Discord. So I think I might. Yeah, it's still there. Yeah. It's still out there. Yeah. Connor, hit us with your next two that are correlated. Yeah, so this kind of sucks. But I just looked at Fandle again, and both of them have moved a good bit. I posted both of these five minutes ago in our Discord,

and now they just got posted on F our Discord, and now they just got posted on FanDuel, and now they're both a couple yards off here. But I'll fire them anyway. I think they're both still playable at the current price. So I like Aaron Rodgers under 258 and a half passing yards on FanDuel right now. A.J. Dillon over. Looks like it's up to 49 and a half rushing yards right now. Again, these two are correlated.

This game is expected to be in the negative degrees right now, or at least in the low single digits. Sean Mannion is in a QB for Kirk Cousins. The Packers are double-digit favorites at home. The Vikings can't stop the run. I just don't see a way where the Packers decide to go pass heavy here and really emphasize that. So I think that both of these actually have a good chance of hitting and they're also not mutually exclusive. So like, you know, even if Aaron Rogers somehow throws three 80 yard bombs, like AJ Dillon could still hit and even out here. But again, I think that they're both kind of set up that they're in a good spot to both

hit here with AJ Dillon and Aaron Rogers under looking at Chris Allen actually does a great four, four weather breakdown where he looks at, you know he looks at how similar situations have panned out in the past. So there's been 25 different quarterbacks who've played in games where it's been negative degrees. And just seven of those 25 have cracked 250 passing yards. So I like the under there a good bit. And I just don't think that the volume is going to be there. Rodgers could realistically attempt maybe like 20 passes the entire game so um again the viking secondary isn't good but like i mean that's just so he has to be so so efficient for that to happen and i really think that they lean on the run here

with aj dylan and samaritan jones as well yeah absolutely love it one of the ones that i am dying for is sean manion props i like absolutely cannot wait to get my hands on some Sean Mannion props. This is, this will be his third career start. Ironically all in week 17, which I guess kind of makes sense. His career high is 169 yards. And now we have the spot where like,

it's going to be slow. Like you said, the weather is going to be an issue. You know, we're getting pounded right now in Chicago. I know green Bay is getting the same thing, but just probably a little bit worse. And it's supposed to be like a high of nine degrees with like negative wind

chills. It is going to be a rough spot for, for Sean Mannion. So I love all the reasons that you love those plays. And it was my hunch when you were putting them in there. Cause I started refreshing and like FanDuel what popped on FanDuel and I i was ready to go so good stuff um what else you got for us alex oh there you go sorry okay yeah my next play is i want to preface by stating that i actually think that this can uh it's it's a little crazy that we're all in on all these rams props but i'll explain why i think this one can actually hit, even if Cooper Cup and Sonny Michel, which are Ryan's plays as well, go over.

But, yeah, it's Odell Beckham over 49.5 receiving yards. Ryan laid it out, but I'm going to elaborate on it a little more. Baltimore is extremely vulnerable through the air right now. They are dead last in EPA allowed per rush, 18th in pass rush grade, 27th in coverage grade as well. We saw Joe Burrows just explosion against them last week. The Ravens have now allowed as many 15-yard-plus passes as the Jets, which is tying them for most in the NFL. We talked about the injuries that they are facing in their secondary. I believe their top 11 defensive backs to start the season,

10 of them are injured on injury reserve or on the COVID list. So, yeah, I really feel like this could be potentially a spike week for Odell Beckham. So he has a 7.3 yards per target since joining the Rams, which is not great for a 14.1 average depth of target, but that is mostly an indicator of target depth. His target per route run is more stable. He's earning targets on 20% of his routes, which is really good for a 14.1 ADOT. What that means basically is he is running routes down the field and he is

being targeted at a fairly high rate now he's going to face a defense that just cannot stop downfield targets so this is just the perfect recipe for him to have a spike week and he does not need a bump in volume to do so he can be efficient with five or six targets and easily eclipse this number in what is just an ideal matchup. He's averaging 6.6 targets and is joining the team. He's had at least seven targets in three of five games. Yeah, just after seeing what Joe Burrow did to this Baltimore secondary, who might even be in worse shape this week. Yeah, Stafford's going to have similar success, in my opinion. Baltimore 30th in passing DVOA. They're giving up over almost 190 yards per game to the wide

receiver position as well. Also, looking at Stafford's targets, they're fairly condensed as well. Outside of Cooper Cupp, who's like the 1A, 1B, 1C, it's pretty much Odell Beckham, a little bit of Van Jefferson, and that's pretty much it. A little bit of Tyler Higby mixed up there. So yeah, there's a lot of targets that are still available for Odell, even with Cooper Cupp getting these monster target shares. So yeah, I just really feel like this has Spike Week written all over. I've been encouraged by most of what I've seen from Odell since joining the Rams. I think he's still got a lot of juice left in the tank. I think he's going got a lot of juice left in the tank.

I think he's going to feast in this matchup. And I previously mentioned it's not going to require a bump or a spike in targets for him to do so. He can do so basically getting his floor, which is, you know, five to six targets. He can easily turn those into 50-plus yards in this matchup. So, yeah, I really love Odell Beckham this weekend. Yeah.

Not going to take much even though you're going to see double teams. They did it last week where they were trying to double team and take guys away. Cooper Cup will be seeing double teams at times. But Baltimore runs a ton of man. You're going to leave single coverage man on Odell

who doesn't need a lot of targets to get there. So I think it's still very, very, very much at play. And I don't think it correlates poorly necessarily with what Cooper Cup has going on. We also saw every single Cincinnati skilled position player, whether it was C.J. Uzma down to obviously T. Higgins, Tyler Boyd. Yeah, Jamar Chase all went over their totals in this matchup versus his Baltimore

secondary. So yeah, easily the same thing can transpire. Even if Cooper Cup has a 150-yard receiving game, there is plenty of feasting for Odell Beckham to have. So yeah, I love this spot for him. We were talking about the weather in Green Bay as a concern and why Connors plays make so much sense. There's going to be like, it's going to be like 60 in Baltimore. Like it's going to be like fine, even though it's an outdoor game in December, like we don't have any weather concerns there. So that's not something that we need to,

it's something we need to start to consider at this time of year. That's not going to be an issue in this spot. So I think that that is worth noting as well. My last one. So we talk about it because it's's moved a little bit that's kind of why we were late we're talking about this is you know it um you maybe got steamed elsewhere a little bit right after was chuba hubbard uh i took it at under 40 and a half rushing yards on chuba um so it is out there right now there's a 38 on dk right now okay caesars caesars has a 37 and a half um yeah so

i think that's still i would try to take the the least amount of juice as possible um so like a 38 and a half i think is still in play it's we're getting close though but um the play makes sense to me because it's just it's it's a bad matchup against a really good run D, right? So the Saints are the top-ranked run D in the league according to EPA per play, according to success rate, according to Football Outsiders run D DVOA. And NextGenStats has a rushing yards over expectation metric that measures running back efficiency and poor Chuba is dead last no one has done less with more opportunities than Chuba Hubbard has this season so he has four games in a row since CMC went down that he has been the lead back and he has averaged

22 yards per game in those contests so again like if Chuba, a bull case for Chuba would be probably at home as a favorites, which I don't know how many teams that works right now for the Panthers. They are like seven point road dogs, you know, in New Orleans, who's terrific against the run. It's just a really bad spot. Their offensive line is beat up, injuries and COVID. It just is a really bad spot, which I'm okay still going down to, say, 37.5, 38.5 on Chuba, even though the 40.5s are dead. I wouldn't do a 40.5 with massive juice.

I'd much rather you take maybe a yard or two under. He's not topped 40 even in a game since week eight. There's been a lot of, like, he had six carries for nine yards last week. He very much could have, you know, close to 10 be high 20s here so not a good spot for chuba i've been waiting for that one to drop and that dropped about an hour before we went live so uh and thank you to the other groups that are taking it uh in steaming it we appreciate it i'm gonna i'm telling this by the way i like it never never hard to sell me on fading a running back playing the Saints. That has been a plus EV spot all season.

Their rush defense is just for real. We see it on a weekly basis. The only team I feel like that's really had success on the ground against them has been the Eagles. Obviously, they have a very mobile quarterback leading the rushing. So, yeah, I think this is a great spot as well to fade Chuba, who, like you said, has been awfully inefficient right there with Myles Gaskin, in my opinion, for one of the worst starting running backs,

or at least when he's been starting, just completely ineffective. So, yeah, I think this is a great spot too, Ryan. Sweet. A couple others that I want. I don't know if you guys have anything that you want to share, a couple other spots that I want. I have a few listed as well. I have a couple spots too.

Oh, cool. Go ahead, Alex. What do you got? So, yeah, I'm very much looking forward to some Mark Andrews props. One of the big kind of narratives we've heard all week has been, you know, all the various incentives that are being, you know, discussed, whether it's Antonio Brown. I gave out a touchdown prop of his. Obviously, he's looking iffy if he's going to play. All the various incentives that are being discussed, whether it's Antonio Brown.

I gave out a touchdown prop of his. Obviously, he's looking iffy if he's going to play. But I do feel like if he suits up, very likely to get a full complement of snaps. In that scenario, Tom Brady is going to be looking for him in the end zone. There's lots of incentives built in. We've got guys going for personal records. Cooper Cup, I feel like that factors into Ryan's play as well. So yeah, one of the ones that hasn't been discussed is Mark Andrews. So he needs 15 yards to break the Ravens' single-season yardage record for a tight end. He needs 11 catches to set the Ravens'

season record as well. He only needs 230 yards to break the NFL record for most yards by a tight end in a season. He needs 24 catches to set the NFL single season tight end record. So Mark Andrews is having quietly, in my opinion, a historically great season. I mean, I mean, when he was like a Ravens fan or fantasy football player would obviously attest to this, but yeah, you're not, you know, typically hear him when you think of, like, the Travis Kelseys and the George Kittles of the world. But, yeah, this guy has been absolutely dominant this year. He is going to break quite a few records, obviously,

some Ravens single-season records. So, yeah, there are a lot of things in play for him. I also feel like watching Tyler Huntley, if he ends up starting, look to really, really favor Mark Andrews as well. So, yeah, I am really looking forward to seeing what we get. If we're getting a five-and-a-half reception line, which I'm expecting, I don't think it would be quite six-and-a-half, considering I don't think Mark Andrews ever had that line. I think five, he's only maybe a couple times he's ever had five-and-a-half or maybe never has had five-and-a-half.

I usually think it's between four-and-a-half and three-and-a-half. It's four-and-a-half right now? No, usually it's four-and-a-half. Usually it's four-and-a-. I usually think it's between 4.5 and 3.5. It's 4.5 right now? No, usually it's 4.5. Usually it's 4.5. Yeah, it's always 4.5. I've seen it as low as 3.5 just a couple of times. But, yeah, I think 5.5 is definitely a great play when that line does drop,

especially if you can get it relatively not used to potentially plus odds on it. So, yeah, I'm going to look at the yards too if we're getting it between 55, 60 as well. So, yeah, I'm very much looking forward to some Mark Andrews props. Love it. Yeah, Connor and I would like some Mark Andrews this week too. We got him on our FFPC team. We're live. We're live. Sitting in like the 20s and, you know, Mark Andrews has been an anchor, you know.

Yeah. And same with Jalen Waddell. When you can get that production at tight end, it's such an advantage in fantasy as well when you have a steady floor as high as Mark Andrews and spike weeks like he's had. Yeah, he's a baller. But, yeah, I have like 10 written down. How many do you have?

I can go rattle them off real quick if you want. Yeah, I got a handful too. I probably have like six or seven. I bet my guess is we have at least two or three that are overlapping. Yeah. Okay. So Russell Wilson under and pass attempts. Anything above 30, I think under on that. I don't trust the yards. It's a 235 because I think that frankly, the Detroit secondary is so, so bad that he could easily crush it. But with the weather concerns and Tim Boyle starting and all that, I think they go massively run heavy. So I like the under on the yards, but I'm really waiting for the attempts.

I just don't think he attempts more than 30 passes. I think Darre Agumawale receiving overs are interesting as the primary pass catcher playing from behind against the Patriots is interesting. David Montgomery rushing overs, I looked at. They're probably not. They're probably a little too high. They're like 70 right now. A little high on Samuel, yeah.

Rushing attempts, though, I think are very much in play there. Gabriel Davis overs, looking at those potentially as with Emmanuel Sanders likely out. You're looking at Gabriel Davis being like the clear number two. Devin Singletary carries just dominated rushing work the past few weeks. Again, I don't know any of these numbers. I'm just listing you things that you had. The number has to be right, but these are all things that I'm looking for. Daryl Williams receiving yards as well.

You know, as the, with a CEH out, I think that that could be interesting. Moelle Cox overs Jack Doyle missed last week towards the end of the game, and Mo'Ally Cox ran a season high in routes and saw four targets. I think Doyle came back to practice on Friday. Did he come back? Okay. Yeah, I was looking at Mo'Ally for DFS purposes.

So we'll wait and see. We don't know yet, but that's when we have to wait for tomorrow. Yeah, and then I got two more Philly rushing overs. Those are a good one. I'm waiting for that on points bet for Philly and San Francisco of rushing attempts overs. I mean, those are going to just annihilate.

So Trey Lance props too on rushing attempts I think are awesome. And then maybe Mac Jones unders. I'm seeing 222 right now. I don't know. It's close. I mean, the Jags D is so bad, but they're 17-point favorites.

Like he could throw for 200 passing yards in the first half and not throw a single attempt the entire second half so uh i don't know i have mac unders written down um attempts maybe yeah maybe that's the better play similar to russ um definitely lance rushing attempts over. Attempts are more appealing to me than yards even on Trey Lance, but I probably have interest in both. But I love the team overplay on points bet. We could do that. We've done that with the Eagles. Regardless of who gets the carries, it's just a team over yards that you could points bet. I think that's a terrific play.

Foster Moreau has been pretty solid, and they're playing the Colts, nice controlled environment, and the Colts give up a ton. League high, 9.5 passing attempts per game to the tight end position. They just play a lot of soft cover two zone that allows things over the middle. So receptions probably more so than yards. If I could find that on Foster Moreau would probably be a play. I hit this last week. I'm going to go again, Braxton Berrios receptions.

You know, I had no interest in Braxton Berrios yards because last week it was five catches for 37 yards, but the reception number was three and a half. It's probably three and a half again again there's a four and a half on fandle right now uh various yeah i'm buried i don't know what the juice is let me see it dropped this morning no i just took all the props off not in our tool yeah i got nothing it's gone okay it was like minus 110 when i saw it. I'd hit that, to be honest. It's nothing else.

They might have both their tight ends on the COVID list. Right. No Tyler Croft. No Ryan Griffiths. Like Keelan Cole and Denzel Mims and Braxton Berrios. He's obviously soaking up all those slot snaps. That's like the only success that Zach Wilson has has is throwing to the slot so yeah he's probably going to get double digit targets and very low a dot so correct he might make you wait

till the fourth quarter to get it but that's okay like i can wait till he did last week too at three and a half and then you know caught like three in absolute garbage time so you know we can we can do that again on on various um chase edmunds you know i i don't know we're waiting on james connor status but like chase edmonds you know combined yards he he crushed um as a receiver last week for kyler um so edmonds could be really nice if james connor is out and zach earth's receptions as well zach earth is is basically being funneled targets um. I'm not super interested. I know his yards are out there. It's like 54 and a half or something.

That's a little high for me. It's too dusty. Yeah, it's too dusty for big plays, but I think there's just going to be enough volume where a three and a half or even a four and a half, if maybe plus money, I wouldn't mind sprinkling on. Yeah, and Sean Mannion, like I said, Sean Mannion is one i'm ready to go for yeah i just want to touch on connor mentioned uh devin singletary props i had singletary as a play

actually i pivoted out of it just because his prop was released like 45 minutes before he came on air i just wanted a little bit more time uh for this one in the lab but just looking at what singletary or what's happened in Buffalo's backfield over the last three weeks, he has completely taken over as the lead back in Buffalo, pretty much playing every single snap, every single down. He's also eclipsed his number at 73 and a half, his combined rushing and receiving. He's been really involved as a pass catcher. He's had double-digit carries in three state weeks. He's been effective.

He's got a good matchup versus Atlanta. Buffalo has two touchdown favorites as well. So I do think he'll be dealing with some positive game script there. So, yeah, Zach Moss was activated for the first time. He had been inactive the two previous weeks. I think he finished with between six and eight carries eight into singletary's work a little bit previously with when he was inactive matt brita was active who just wasn't even on the field i think singletary played like 97 of the snaps

when brita was active and moss was inactive so if moss is going to once again be inactive, where I think there's a good chance of that happening, I absolutely love Singletary's combo props. Also waiting for his rushing attempt. I imagine it's going to come out anywhere between 11.5 to 13.5. Without Zach Moss, those are both numbers that I'm absolutely going to be looking to play over on. I like that.

All right, so now we can recap what we did submit as picks here for the show. Connor had, of course, layup in Connor land. Zach Wilson under 203 passing yards. And then kind of a correlated prop with that game environment in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers under 265.5, and A.J. Dillon over 47.5. I had a couple of Rams props. Cooper Cup over 106.5.

Sonny Michel over 68.5. Again, he's not coming off the field. He's going to get fed there. Chuba Hubbard under 40.5. Again, that's moved a little bit. We're seeing like some 38s, 30.5, 37.5s on Chuba, and I think that's still fine. I wouldn't go much below that, though,

and I'm not really interested in 40.5 or like minus 150 or anything. Just not personally the style that I prefer to play. Alex had a couple with DeAndre Swift coming back and apparently getting fed in his last game of the season because they were going to bench him for Week 18 over 24. a half receiving yards and then a really nice play i like on odell over 49 and a half uh there as well in that rams game so all right uh continue to fire off questions do our best here to run through them and then get to uh the prop tool picks of the week as well uh let's see here adam wants to know uh hey boys it's been a

while hope all is well thank you adam you as well happy new year cole beasley over 40 and a half yards so i'll say this like josh allen's gonna have a clean pocket like the falcons have the worst pass rush in the league It is non-existent. Last week against Tim Boyle, they got zero pressures. Zero pressures, zero sacks against Tim Boyle and the Lions. It's going to be clean pickings for whatever Josh Allen wants to do tomorrow. Very well could be Cole Beasley. Cole Beasley, though, to me, might be one of these guys that I was referencing earlier who tested positive and maybe he's, even though he's going to play, maybe he's not 100%. Again,

I have no way of knowing that. Our projections have him at 45. Do either of you have a lean on Cole Beasley? For a lot of the things you outlined personally, Ryan, I feel like this is going to be a Stefan Diggs sort of week. So, yeah, looking at Buffalo pass catchers, I have a lot more. Obviously, we're dealing with much different numbers regarding Diggs and Beasley. But, yeah, I think that for a lot of the things that you suggested, the lack of the pass rush, sort of allowing, you know, Josh Allen as much time as he wants in the pocket, that's going to allow some of those intermediate to deeper routes to develop. So yeah, I am kind of more inclined to look towards

basically Stephon Diggs or Gabriel Davis if he ends up playing as well. Yeah, the only really good thing going on in the Falcons defense is A.J. Terrell and he doesn't shadow or anything. You guys said it well. All right. People want a live show from the Garden. When's the broadcast coming from the Garden? They want to see the cat after hours.

I would love to join you for a live show from the Garden at some point. We'll have to like a super bowl special like next season where we uh we all we all get together and do a show from the garden line from the garden i can put dueling stools right next to me here we just all jam in right next to each other have the cats with headphones as well they can uh i'm not sure about four for four is hr rules but i know that most of the people are very supportive of these tactics. It's a very pro-Garden organization. Well, when you're in Rome, you do as the Romans, right? You're coming to Rome.

Yes, we are. We're fake corporate. We do our best. Dan, thank you, man. Yeah, it's been a good NBA season. Join us. Get in the streets. Prop Stars is hanging out with us as well.

We're off to a pretty good start on the NBA side. So definitely want to check that out. The Discord is a ton of fun as well. I just want to say I've been hanging out in there. It's a lot of fun. You can interact with me. You can interact with Connor. You can interact with Ryan, some other really sharp people.

I was also really surprised by how sharp just the subscribers are, like lots of really awesome information being shared You know people just recommending plays. I think that's always really healthy environment Just getting different opinions and viewpoints and yeah Just a really great place to learn a lot even for people like us Ryan Connor and I so yeah I would definitely encourage you if you're not a subscriber to get a subscription or if you are a subscriber and you haven't yet, you know, gotten into the discord, get into the discord. It's really awesome. Yeah. It's, it's crazy because we actually hired, uh, Dalton Cates from the discord, um, because he was posting these weekly specials for NFL where I'm like, man, that's like so smart. I'm like, I'm, I'm following this. And then, you know, the first few weeks I

was like, wow, we won like a few of them. And then after a while, it was just like he was posting like constantly posting smart stuff. And I say with some of our other subscribers, you know, like Travis and, you know, some of the other guys in there are always posting smart stuff. And I'm like, this is like they teach me like, you know, or they're alerting us. Like we we're about to actually release, you know, something in our discord where subscribers are allowed to alert everyone that subscribes like a bad lines or different things where the markets are off because we just really want to build a community where I'm not

going to be looking at lines, scrolling through them every single second, whereas someone might catch something that's just way off. Because it happens every week. Somebody's totally off, but you only have a few minutes to act. And so that's the kind of community we're trying to build. And I think that as you guys mentioned, it's going well so far.

We brought on some people for the NBA side that are doing content. One of them messaged me yesterday asking me about someone like, does this guy write for us? I'm like, no, that's just a subscriber. And he's like, man, he's killing in the NBA. He was killing in the NBA Discord before we even went live with our NBA products. So like, that is exactly what we want to have because, you know, we don't have a bunch of people that are, you know, just waiting for us.

And I even, this list that I kind of rattled off, like there've been multiple times this year where I knew that I was going to be out of pocket for a little bit. And I just kind of said, Hey, these are some of the things that I'm looking for these spots. And then all of a sudden, like I get tagged in a notification like, hey, it's up here at this. And then we can make the decision on if we want to make a move on it or not. Like that's invaluable. Right. Where it's like a it takes a village kind of thing where we're trying to collectively beat the books,

where it's not just falling on, and I who wear a number of hats. And so it's difficult to just be constantly waiting for things to drop. So our Discord is awesome. Especially in a prop market that moves as quickly as it does. It's subject to so much line movement due to lack of liquidity. So just being on top of things, having information, having people kind of with a pulse or on a pulse, just being ready is just super invaluable. So, yeah, I feel like that community just kind of just breeds success and is just so vital for, you know, just having an edge and maintaining an edge in a prop market.

And shout out to Dan. I mean, Dan makes life easier for all of us by tracking all of our stuff and helping us understand what's working and what isn't working. He is an invaluable piece behind the scenes. Shout out to Baby Calfs and all that he does for us. In the public, if you guys want to know who we are, why we matter, or if we suck or not, come see all of our pics on our Google Sheet. It's free. Anyone can look at it.

We have nothing to hide. If we're having a bad few weeks, it doesn't feel good, but it's part of the biz. Connor's having a great season, but he has stuck 20 units on Jarrett Patterson props, so just ignore that portion of the

results and everything else checks out great. Connor's been, you know, he had a little lull to start, but, man, he has been, like, just printing for weeks. He's been crushing. So I'm going to do my best to catch him because my future car looks better than his, but he just keeps pulling away. So, again, that's good.

Like, it's, like, a healthy competition, but I could not be cheering harder for Connor to just continue to kick ass down the stretch and run away from me and make it hard for me to catch him. So it's good stuff. All right. What do we got here? You guys are watching the Rose bowl live. We appreciate it.

We're multitasking, hanging out with us. People locking in on Swift. Morning. No, sorry to me. If we run out of questions i know there was a bunch or at least a handful on twitter as well okay yeah i'll go find

those two how about swift what would we play the swift number two do you have a preference uh swift is a little speculative just because you know i am banking on a lot of things i outline regarding jamal williams uh you know we haven't seen a sample with Tim Boyle and Swift. So, Tim, this number is a gift in my opinion, absolutely, but there isn't a large kind of threshold. So I wouldn't play it probably past, I want to say, maybe 27, 28.5. To me, that's a cutoff. Pretty much anything under 30 I think is a pretty good value.

But just because it's a little bit more speculative in nature, yeah, I'd hold off kind of anything under 30, I think is a pretty good value, but yeah, just because it's a little bit more speculative in nature. Yeah. I'd hold off kind of anything under 30 plus obviously numbers this low. That's a significant amount of, you know, difference between 24 and a half and even, you know, 28 and a half. So yeah, I'd stick under 30. Okay. Yeah. I think that's probably a pretty good number there. I would agree with that. Oh, let's see's probably a pretty good number there. I would agree with that. Let's see here. What else we got there?

Ricky, what show are you watching, man? Ricky, good for you. Full PPR. Michael Carter, Tony Pollard, or Keyshawn Vaughn. Hopefully you're in the Super Bowl of your fantasy league. I don't know. Michael Carter for me. I don't know. That's a tough spot. Like it's a gross game.

Like, you know, like again, we talked about how there's no one left on that team. Like Tevin Coleman's on, you know, IR. I don't know. The bucks are flirting with talking about how they think that maybe

Keyshawn Vaughn can handle more, which they have eyes. They know Ronald Jones sucks at football. So I don't know. can handle more, which they have eyes. They know Ronald Jones sucks at football. So I don't know. Either of you have a lean on Carter, Paul, or Devon? Probably Carter. But I think receiving work is going to be key.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I would agree. He's not going to have it on the ground. So he's basically got to catch like four or five passes to really. Oh, for sure. And there's just so few passing options for the Jets that you'd think that hopefully Zach Wilson can utilize some of Carter's strengths as a receiver the way White was able to earlier in the season. Side note here, we're watching the Rose Bowl here. I just looked up the game to see what was going on. This Jay Smith guy has 15 receptions for 346 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Decent day. I think that's the most I've ever – That's a Jared Patterson day if I've ever seen one. He's the Jared Patterson of college receivers. I don't even – I've never even heard of this guy. I don't watch much college football, but still. What are we doing with Jared Patterson this week, by the way? I think he's actually going to be like I have a prop line this week.

You always have to see Jared Patterson. Max bet the overs. Like literally take everything you've won this entire season, just max it, the entire count. He has slated to get a start, I believe, right? He has. Antonio Gibson is going to be active. I mean, imagine not betting Jared Patterson over

when he has a chance. I mean, dude's an MF and baller, you know? Should be interesting. For the record, our rankings have Carter comfortably ahead, actually. Pollard and Vaughn are a little bit behind, but Carter is the play according to our rankings and projections. And our rankings and projections are really good over like, I don't know, a decade plus. So trust those pretty strongly.

Jason wants to know thoughts on side props in the Dallas-Arizona game. Got to come for the Wednesday show. We dig into sides a little bit more. I lean Dallas in that. I feel that the, um, you know, even though I think that line's probably a pick a couple of weeks ago,

I think kind of the, it's a little bit of an overreaction line, but I almost feel like it's just based off of what's going on with Arizona. They've been really struggling. Um, you know, and they have some offensive line issues going into this one as well, which isn't great.

So, um, I would lean Dallas. I liked it more at a five and a half. Now that it's a six, I don't have a ton of appetite for that. Props, I mentioned Ertz. Zach Ertz receptions is something that I'm looking at, and then mentioned Chase Edmonds if James Conner gets ruled out.

But as far as some of the other stuff that's out there, I don't currently have any interest. How about you, Alex? Any thoughts here? In Dallas, Arizona? Yeah. Props? Yeah, I personally love CeeDee Lamb this week.

So CeeDee Lamb has actually been, since Michael Gallup has returned to Dallas' lineup and they've had their receiver core fully healthy receiver core fully healthy cd lamb has actually been the odd man out he's been a part-time player i know this like this sounds crazy but if you look at um snap count routes run uh michael gallup and amari cooper are on the field a lot more than cd lamb and for the first time this season that changed last week versus the washington football team while his stat line may be mediocre just because it was, you know, they just rolled on Washington and didn't really need CeeDee Lamb

or they weren't really throwing the ball a lot in the second half. And obviously Dak, you know, sat the majority of the fourth quarter. I do feel in a game that's going to be potentially competitive versus Arizona, has the highest total on the slate, that we're going to see a lot of CeeDee Lamb. He is just a matchup nightmare for opposing slot cornerbacks. So, yeah, I think CeeDee Lamb, if you get him in the low 60s, which he was this morning, I may or may not have written about it in my column, I think he's a phenomenal play this week, especially if that trend continues where he ran as many routes as he did last week

and he actually played more than Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup for the first time with all of them healthy. So if that continues, getting a slight discount on him when he is just a matchup nightmare playing out of the slot where he's just been phenomenal, I think is a great spot to back him. Love it. I'm going to buzz through some of these because we got a good amount. And if you guys have a take or, you know,

want me to stop so that you can share, just let me know. How high would you play cup two? You know, our projection is covered like one 21. I play it till probably right around maybe one 15 or so. Again, I know that's not necessarily a bettable edge typically against our projection, but again, it's just a spot where I think he's, you know, we're looking at like 150 yards in this spot.

Like they could easily feed him a dozen targets, a dozen efficient targets and you know, he probably crushes. So easily feed him a dozen targets a dozen efficient targets and uh you know he probably crushes so he could have a dozen catches he could have a dozen he's been getting like nine and like nine or ten every game he talked about last week last week his number for receptions nine and a half and he went over we didn't blink it like talking about taking it under so uh c-pat under 42 and a half rushing yards. Our projections have CPAT at 44. They have obviously lessened the load of late on CPATs. Not a bettable edge for me, but either of you have an interest there?

No, his usage is all over the place, you know? Yeah. Kelsey wants to know about Patrick Mahomes rushing yards, 14 and a half um yeah you can tell me on that again those are kind of like the you know the volatility of the running back receptions where you know they he could crush this in a massive way um Mahomes rushing yards in the playoffs like Connor and I have touched on this the last couple years like Mahomes runs a little bit more when it matters a little bit more um The nose are a little bit light sometimes to start. We've had some success with that

in years past. Anyone interested at 14.5 on Mahomes? Maybe in this game. It's a big game. I think that's if you're going to play it in the regular season, it has to be a big game. If you're playing it in a game that's not quite as big, I think that's a mistake.

Cat time. Are we g gassy how are we feeling no this is my uh non-asmatic cat this is goose he's my homie he's my what you got there what is that a little dab pen or something or what no it says you did pen pen an actual pen pen pen pen okay uh let's see here uh we're talking about the giants quarterbacks yeah the giants i would love to take a giants quarterback under but they're going to probably use multiple quarterbacks which is not fantastic how about cole commit over 30 and a half receiving yards i mean he's been in the mix pretty often of late. You know, he gets cut to the goal line for Jimmy Graham, you know, touchdowns. But either of you have any interest in Cole Komet? We have been 35 yards.

Yeah, I was going to say I think 30 is a fairly efficient number for him. It's just minimal upside with his role. It's the way the targets profile in that offense but uh yeah i mean you could sell me on it but uh don't have i think the number is fairly efficient yeah and yeah he's still waiting to catch his first career touchdown as well like you mentioned jimmy graham getting all that work uh all of it he's into his second season and he's a tight end that's on the field every single down every single snap and has not scored a touchdown with the amount of targets he has that's like kind of approaching into jacoby myers i know he's a

receiver but uh yeah jacoby myers scored his first career touchdown in what 48 games with the amount of targets and receptions he's had so cole commits not far behind these these do these do yeah um this is interesting uh bazooka sharks uh cooper and and Andrews over 14.5 combined receptions. So this is available on DraftKings and plus 115. I think that that's – Yeah, I've heard about this prop. I like this quite a bit. I do think, yeah, that Cooper Cup is as close to a lock as you'll see a player with a 10 reception line.

Like, again, that is a monumental number, but if there is a game or a spot and a matchup with kind of every checkbox, box you're looking to check for Cooper Cup, this is it. So yeah, it's very hard to say a guy is a lock for 10 catches, but if there was a game or a spot where that was the case, it is Cooper Cup.

And then Mark Andrews has just been phenomenal. All the additional reasons I laid out where I'm very eager and anticipating playing his props because he's also going after some historic record-breaking tight end records. So, yeah, I like them both. They're both going to be heavily targeted, heavily involved, and they have great matchups. They're going to have great games.

Nine and six for each guy. Plus money. I think that that's pretty interesting. Let's see here. Any thoughts on Damian Harris or Rashad Penny? PPR running back championship game. Good luck. Lonemeister.

Man, I would love to tell you confidently Damian Harris, but it looks like Ramondre is back in the mix possibly. Should be a nice spot for Rashad Penny. Can give you a look at what our projections here. You guys have any thoughts here? No, I think that they're just going to run the ball a bunch. I think that's like. Both teams are.

Yeah. So, I mean, I think that both Ramondre and Damian have a good chance of, like, having a great, great day. But I think the line's pretty efficient. So. Yeah, we have a Damien Harris, a tad over Rashad Penny. Um, he sure wanted to know. So again, 17 point favorites at home against Jacksonville. They are going to be pounding the rock there. Uh,

Edward Gale wants to know about Tyler Lockett, over 56 and a half at MGM, Alex. Yeah. Have you guys read the report that he lost eight pounds? I'm aware. He weighs like 160-what? I know. Anyway.

I read that like very shortly before coming on here, actually right when I had seen that line drop. So I had only a few minutes just preparing, looking at all the lines, because a bunch of lines came out, you know, within the last few hours. That was one of them. I'm interested in Tyra Lockett, obviously. But, yeah, I read one of the first things I read about him was that he lost eight pounds over the past week or due to COVID.

So I am very curious if that is, in true, because if it is, fatigue could be a factor, conditioning. So yeah, I'm curious if that's true. That's definitely going to be a spot that I research tonight. And yeah, looking forward to learning a little bit more about. Yeah. I even know you and I were both on that last week and- Tough. Tough. Yeah. It just never really even kind of materialized no you know those are typically spots i don't mind going back to but like the weather makes me a little nervous here i know the matchup is nice again like i just think that there could be a lot of

running in this game i think our projections are way over on lockett's um and i know edward shout out to edward i believe he is a subscriber with us too so um he's probably seeing that projection or seeing that in the prop tool and thinking that that's a viable play um i'm a little hesitant on it though so do some research do some research on him just to yeah yeah yeah i just think that easily him or mecca fit easily at the over um without you know without a bad kind of like game script or like you know yeah like like rust with those for 150 yards, but one of them goes over. Well, we dispelled, we crossed DK off the list last week. We talked about, you know, the-

Oh, our theory, yeah. Yeah, the only fans. I love that story. Yeah. So Russ doesn't like that very much. So it's lock it or nothing. You know, DK is, DK unders are where we should be looking. So CPAT, Matt wants to know about cpats combo uh russian receiving yeah we talked about him a little bit earlier like again he's he's getting used a little bit less than the

stretch so it makes me a little bit worried there alex is nodding his head like he agrees yeah i do just uh looking at i'm a huge CPAP truther, but just looking at the usage, it's been down, down the stretch, as Ryan mentioned, which doesn't make sense to me, just considering the state of the team. You'd think that they'd want to kind of

give this guy all the work he can handle, but yeah, they seem to be kind of limiting him, using him as more of a traditional running back, which also does not make a ton of sense to me, considering his skill set and his receiving chops out of the backfield. He's just a very, very difficult matchup to cover for opposing linebackers and even safeties. But, yeah, he's not getting the target.

He's not getting the work in the passing game. It doesn't make sense to me. But, yeah, it's just hard to trust him right now so unfortunately uh yeah i just can't trust um the workload and the volume and the targets so it's a pass for me yeah i agree um i just wanted to plug in my laptop and realize that my son unplugged me from the wall so he can charge like you know kids you know don't all right where were you i charge us. Kids, you know? Where were you? Don't have unprotected sex, people. Shot drops.

My boy, shot drops again. I love shot drops. We got some NHL stuff. Cam Atkinson on the Flyers. Under two and a half. We got a little bit of take. He gave us a winner last week. He gave us a winner and I tailed and I'm tailing again. I'm guessing this is – oh, we got a little bit of take. He gave us a winner last week.

He gave us a winner and I tailed and I'm tailing again. I'm in. Kings allowed the ninth fewest shots against per game and the sixth fewest PIM per game. I'm trying to think what that might be. Fewest points. I don't know. Pucks?

Penalty in minutes. Penalty in minutes. Penalty in minutes. Okay. No, I don't know. He's hit this in four of his last five and six of ten. So that, again, is Cam Atkinson on the Flyers. Plus 100 on DK right now.

I'm a Flyers fan, i like uh penalty infraction minutes yeah i have no idea um says penalty infraction minutes i'm into that uh i don't understand it but i'm into it um we lose noonan yes no no he's plugging in his computer. Shot props. We're going to make an NHL channel just for you. That way you can... I've seen shot props his results. His season long

results and they are quite impressive. Alright, sounds like shot props is looking for... Would not be a bad idea to get him an NHL channel. Sliding the DMs, brother. All right, we got Mike Gusecki under four and a half receptions, minus 166. I don't know. I mean, there's been some times

where Tua's fed Gusecki, I feel like. I don't know. I mean, this is probably, this is almost certainly a waddle game. At least, I hope it is. They're starting to design more and more for him and actually get him more involved in the offense, I think, week to week. So, I don it is. But they're starting to design more and more for him and actually getting more involved in the offense, I think, week to week. So I don't know. Yeah, I don't want to pay the juice.

Titans are actually pretty good at covering tight ends too, especially if Bayard gets stuck on him as well, then that will be a difficult matchup for him. But, yeah. Yeah. Fred wants to know about ab over 69 and a half receiving yards alex i i strong take on this just because i did put out uh on twitter a play which was antonio brown's touchdown i would have been all over this line had the report about his

ankle not surfaced i put that play out with his anytime touchdown, largely based on the notion that he was going to be healthy coming into this game. I do feel that if he does play, then he is likely to receive a full complement of snaps. But just kind of knowing that with this guy as broke as he is and wanting to play so badly, if there's a chance that he's not going to play, that ankle must be bothering him significantly. So unfortunately, I am staying away from A, B as much as I was just couldn't wait for this spot

because unbelievable matchup on paper versus the Jets. We all know about the incentives, one touchdown, two touchdowns, like just down the line, receptions and yards. Plus, there's just no one really to throw to, especially Mike Evans, questionable. Obviously, no Chris Godwin. So, yeah, everything sets up beautifully for AB, matchupup incentives etc etc but uh just the ankle is you know a little bit scary so i would just hold off and wait to see but yeah if the ankle is potentially going

to keep him off the field it must be pretty significant yeah i'm interested to see what happens there he's uh he's a very interesting play he's on my list originally he's uh he's very interesting in dfs this week there are a lot of things where i want to see what happens there. He's a, he's a very interesting play. He's on my list. Originally. He's a, he's very interesting in DFS this week. There are a lot of things where I want to see what's going on with AB. So a community is riding with shop props as well. Also. Troy.

Parley. That's a great name, by the way. Like that is like a fantastic handle. Troy. So shout out there. Absolutely love it. Love to see it. I'm going to have to get on that as well here. So shout out there. Absolutely love it. Love to see it.

I'm gonna have to get on that as well here. And look at this. Shop props is joined the discord. This is just, you know, all the, all the warm fuzzies going on right now. You know,

we got the community tailing shop, prop shop props, joining the thriving community, feeding the thriving community. It's a circle of love. It's January 1st. This is the way to set yourself up for a nice, just healthy, profitable new year. There is a disclosure, though, Shop Props.

If that Atkinson prop misses, Ryan said he will remove you from the Discord. Yeah, no, we'll kick you out. But, I mean, welcome. But, you know. Yeah. It'll be a fun sweat for you i mean we only accept winners so uh i mean yeah winner gtfo that's kind of our motto thomas wants to know what team total touchdown props do you like um

not a market that i dabble in in uh the team props but um again you probably i don't know i don't know like i'm curious how these are probably priced in relation to like what the total of the game is uh you know what the actual probability would be of the touchdown numbers like um maybe it's something i'll look into in the off season uh i know that these are offered in books but it's in that kind of touchdown prop genre and i just i don't dabble in it much from a team total standpoint i get it because it correlates more with team totals in general and game overs but uh you guys have any thoughts here no i agree i like the team totals rather than this because i mean i just think that you can

be on the right side of the team total and then not score over the touchdowns you know like if say you take over 21 points and they score two touchdowns and the line touchdown line for that would probably be about two and a half but your team total line is 21 and a half whatever 20 and a half so it's like you're going to be if they hit three field goals you'd still win the team total but you wouldn't win the touchdown prop um or something like that like and they're kind of set like accordingly with some juice so i don't know. I just think that sometimes you can have the right handicap. They don't finish in the red zone. It seems a little bit more fluky in that sense. Edward wants to know

about Patterson. Our projection is 47.5 Connor. Wheels up for Jared. We've got to watch out for that. It's Connor's boy. He's been eyeballing this. He's been continuing to email PointsBet

every week to create a prop, and they won't respond to his emails. Yeah, because I'm harassing them currently on Twitter. We have some major beef because I drove to Indiana and I'm in Indiana right now. They do not transfer my balance from Illinois to Indiana. They told me that I need to withdraw my money from Illinois

to redeposit it in Indiana. Are you serious? That's exactly what they told me. I need to withdraw my money from Illinois to redeposit it in Indiana. Are you serious? That's exactly what they told me. I was like, obviously, fuck off. I'm not going to do that. That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. You're telling me that I've got to drive back to Illinois, which I'm going to in a week, that I have to do the same thing? That's unbelievable. Just to bet on their

platform, which doesn't offer much besides points betting? Soft. I had an instance of a points bet the other day and they actually handled it well so i had a free bet a hundred dollar free bet that was set to expire on the 30th it expired at like 1201 a.m on the 30th when something expires on the 30th wouldn't have like 31st on the 30th in the 30th so like you expires on the 30th, wouldn't that like- On the 31st, on the 30th? In the 30th. So you would think that it would end when the clock turns to the 31st, because then the 30th is over. So the bet disappeared. I happened to be online at the

time and emailed them instantly because I knew that it was expiring that day. So I was starting to think about, okay, what am I going to use this $100 bet for? And luckily they took care of it. But I did have to have a conversation of logic where I'm like, if something expires on that day, it's when the day goes away, not when the day starts. And luckily the rep handled it well. Hopefully, Connor, that happens with you. To the good people at PointsBet.

I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. You're muted. You're muted. You're passionately muted. You might need a sponsor next year, Connor. That was awesome. That was awesome.

I don't know how you did that, but congrats. I mean, Sal, good stuff. That was awesome. That was amazing. We need a sponsor, but I doubt it's going to's gonna be i mean they're not listening to this who cares thank you for handling my situation properly hopefully you uh make right by connor and uh and take care of things so i should just be able to use my money wherever i am right like i mean that's like it's mine like why why do i it doesn't matter what state I'm in. That's insane.

David, a half-point PPR flex, Amon Ra, the Sun God, Eli Mitchell, or Antonio Brown if he plays. I mean, that's tough. I think Amon Ra is probably impacted negatively, surprisingly, by DeAndre Swift returning because, like, he's literally taking running back snaps for targets. So, I mean, Elijah Mitchell is obviously in a really nice spot. Antonio Brown as well. I'd probably go Elijah Mitchell, but just because we have questions around AB.

You guys don't disagree, I'm going to keep it moving. In the prop world, Matt wants to know, is there a desired unit number in volume per month or i'm listening for roi example if i bet a total of 441 and make it 444 matt for the brand uh last month and um it could have been more i could so like i think i saw i read this i think that you should just be upping your unit size like if that's if you're betting 400 units in a month. So like just looking at our prop numbers, I bet like 15 to 20 ish props a week at about a unit each. So like, you know, I'm ending up with like around 100 units a month. So like, I don't know. I mean, I think that's a normal amount for me, I guess.

But like you're doing 400 a month, you're doing four times that, you're doing whatever, way more than that a week. So I think that some people thrive off volume, some people don't. I think it depends on where you're kind of getting at. But I personally would rather raise my unit size, kind of shrink down to that 15 to 20 range bets per week, and then be able to cash on that. Obviously, your plays should range in like you know level of confidence

at least in some aspects so i agree with that i would probably do a solid unit bump versus volume bump but again if you are betting things at a certain edge like if you have you know an edge percent that you were looking to dictate whether that's a bettable line for you or not like maybe you increase what that threshold is from a bettable line so like say if you're betting things where you have a 10 edge maybe you move that down to an eight percent edge and that just also increases the volume as well so it could be twofold where you're kind of moving you know the target range for yourself and increasing the volume so um do it responsibly do it for what uh is not going to ruin your livelihood or even really ruin your day. Obviously, your day gets ruined because you don't want to ever have a losing day,

but you don't necessarily want to be put in a spot where you are chasing the dragon the next day because things went poorly the night before. Yeah. I mean, gamble responsibly. I mean, I see people talking about how they paid for their Christmas with gambling or like their Christmas with gambling or they paid for like this, which is like good. But it's like you shouldn't be gambling money that you needed for those things. Like just, you know, like scale it down a little bit if that's the case. You know, like we want we don't want it to ruin anyone's lives because as good as we think we are and, you know, as good as our record has been, we're going to lose sometimes. And, you know, we don't want any issues there.

So, yep. Couldn't agree more. Beast Mode, Michael Carter under 43 and a half rushing yards. Yeah, I get it. And the Tampa Bay rush defense is strong. Our projection is 46. So it's kind of a stay away for me just because there's really no one else there. And even though it's a nice, tough matchup, again,

he just could get enough volume where that's a problem. And I think Carter's actually pretty good. Be honest. Like I think he's legit good at the game. And, you know, sometimes those guys pop in against bad matchups too. So kind of a stay away from me there.

More people happily tailing shots, props, shout out to him to a under under 247.5 passing yards. Connor, any thoughts on Tua under? Off the weather projected in Nashville. Never fading the Dolphins, but I do think that that's actually probably a sharp take. My only concern would be that they're playing from behind and have to throw a bunch, but still, I don't know.

I think that the under is probably the right move if you're going to bet it. Yeah. We might need a nice week from Tua, so I can't do it responsibly. Alright, what else? I think that is about it there in the chat. Trying to find any of our listener questions

from... Oh, Ed had a question there on Twitter. Last two weeks of the season, do you guys find different approaches when finding props? For example, I have to believe some players have just given up. And he said, thanks for being awesome. Thanks, Ed. Yeah, I mean, it's really hard to like quantify giving up.

Like these guys are still trying to put out good tape, you know, even if they're, like think about the Texansans i mean the texans and like the lions and the jags have been playing out the string since september but like these guys are still either trying to increase their playing time for the next year or get a contract somewhere else or like so there are definitely guys that are you know always hustling regardless of the situation. So it's really hard to quantify that to have a bettable edge. Alex, do you have any thoughts there? Yeah, no, I would agree. I also think this is kind of unprecedented to what we're dealing with as far as COVID is concerned. seasons, just with the, you know, nature of how delicate things are, players being deactivated,

you know, with a moment's notice, that is a new concept that, you know, never happened in the past, or was far more rare at the very least. So, you know, in the past, I would often kind of try to, you know, pounce right away. As soon as lines came out, I would look for, you know, inefficiencies, try to kind of be, there was a lot of value in being first. Now I'm, I'm finding myself being a lot more cautious, kind of waiting until, you know, we have more sort of clarity on the lineup, who's going to be active, who's going to be inactive just because of, yeah, just how delicate things are right now. So, yeah, I would just say it's unprecedented right now.

It just pays to be cautious as well. I don't think there's anything wrong with, you know, kind of jumping on something that you find to be overly inefficient. But, yeah, I would also say to be careful, proceed cautiously. Lots of things happening that you can't control for or account for. And, yeah, just to tread carefully. Yeah, I don't remember who made it. Someone made a great point on Twitter.

It was like in the COVID age, and this more applied to NBA, but also applies somewhat to some position, like mostly the position skill, like a certain skill position in the NFL. You should be betting in this age, be betting overs early and unders later. Because if you bet an over early and someone gets announced out, it only helps your over besides the quarterback, obviously. And if you bet an under later or you bet an under like early, you get screwed if someone else like someone else is announced out.

And then that player is like boosted up the totem pole, basically. So like betting an under late actually helps. the with the steam it usually like especially on big players it kind of like rises up so you're able to get under later on that so i couldn't agree with that but shout out them yeah i couldn't agree more with that i also noticed that i was doing that organically before i heard that take as well like just kind of observing um you know my betting habits as well so yeah i think that's very, very sound advice. And in the current climate, yeah, just like an excellent sort of rule of thumb, or guideline just to, you know, kind of use. So yeah, I 100% support that take. Organically, did you find it in the garden behind you? It was listed as organic in the

garden. So anytime you know, there are organic substances, I tend to meditate heavily on them. On them. Stew on them in the lab a little bit. A lot of, yeah, they get put under a microscope and a lot of experimentation. Direct light under the sun too in the microscope. Correct. That's good.

Yeah. No, I've definitely found that in the NBA,ba car i think it's a good point because you know from a content standpoint having to produce like written content early in the day like i'm looking for overs for that very reason because it's like i don't want to be dead to an under and then three guys get ruled out and all of a sudden the guy who's going to be getting 21 minutes is going to get 32 minutes and then we're dead in the water. My chance to buy out of that or hedge with any middles is gone before I ever get the chance. So, yeah, it is definitely really good organic advice. Pro organic. Stamp that, Sal.

All right, Sal, it is your turn. It is time for Producer Sal's NFL Prop Tool Pick of the Week. Again, this prop tool is available with a subscription to 444. It leverages our projections against the markets, allows you to search and manipulate if you're looking at different offshores or creating different lines that you have available. But it pulls into one spot and is a terrific resource and sal likes to uh get our opinion on something that pops up to him while he was looking at it so sal bring us the oh it is a two-headed Debo Samuel monster.

We have thoughts here. Debo Samuel, first one is receiving yards. Receiving yards over 44.5. Our projection is at 70 yards. We are very bullish on Trey Lance and Debo Samuel, apparently. Also, he is looking at a combined over of 70.5 that is on points bets and minus 120. Connor, I know your thoughts. Start us off on some Debo thoughts.

Yeah, so, I mean, my take was that originally I actually texted this to you, was that because Elijah Mitchell is back and very, very likely going to play, I would say, like, at this point, 99%. And he's going to see the majority of the work, according to Kyle Shannon, basically handle as much as he can. Jeff Wilson is also healthy. So, you know, Debo didn't really start seeing, like, a rushing role until, like, one of them was kind of banged up. And they didn't really feel like they had a good, you know, other guy. You know, they drafted Trey Sermon, and it was handpicked by Kyle Shanahan, whatever that means.

Like, he wasn't really used at all in the rushing game until then, like later in the season. So I'm kind of expecting him to be more in, like, that 3-4 carry range. So when we took a position on the under at 37.5, but now I think it's a little bit different because the receiving yardage, I do think he's going to be more utilized as a receiver as he was early in the season where he was crushing, I mean like annihilating.

And so you're getting like 70.5 on combined. I think he's still going to see some carries. I think it looks like the difference here is we have projected for 21.6 rushing yards. And we have projected for 70 receiving yards. So I think that the receiving yardage is over. I love it. Rushing receiving, not as much of a fan on because I think that he could legit see like only like three ish carries. So, but again, I think that it's,

it's a great play either way. Yeah. Alex, what do you think here? Yeah, I actually think Connor hit the nail on the head. I love the receiving prop. I bet the receiving prop myself privately. I also was interested in a position in the under and potentially putting out. And then I did see that Connor beat me to the punch, was the first person to put out, got the best line and number on the rushing under. So while I love the receiving line, I think that the combo prop will hit because the receiving part aspect is built in.

But yeah, I think fading is rushing is the move this week. The number has adjusted though. So I don't think there's a lot of value left in it, but I couldn't agree more. I love the receiving line. I do think the other one will also go over just kind of as a by-product of including the receiving line.

Yeah. To Sal's point, if he gets 71 receiving yards, then it's a moot point, and you're cooking with gas, and it goes over on both, which is again, possible with how Debo's played this year. Again, like, Trey Lance has been legit

bad as a passer so far, and maybe that's maybe getting a little taste of it and then watching has helped him, and maybe he's prepared in a different way here against the Texans. But Debo again is an after-the-catch beast. But I think, again, the Trey Lance thing also negatively impacts the Debo rushing yards too because Jimmy G's not stealing carries.

Trey Lance is going to tuck and run. I mean, what are we waiting on, Connor? Eight and a half, nine and a half attempts on Trey Lance and smash. smash the canyons yeah so like anything less than 10 i think is a good bet right i totally agree so you again that impacts debo as well there are only so many to go around alex yeah just one more point just as far as trade lance is concerned just in fairness to him that first start did come in week five um obviously he had a lot more time to prepare um the reports obviously have been very positive you would expect that though from the team that was also a very difficult matchup it was against the cardinals i believe his

first start and at the time they were playing some terrific football especially defensively um now he gets a you know much easier matchup versus the Texans. The reviews of him with the scout team have been all really positive, has a lot of healthy weapons. So I do anticipate we'll see a better version of Trey Lance, which may help some of the receiving things for Debo. I also like George Kittle a lot this week personally, but yeah. Yeah, so interesting look there sally appreciate it

uh as always sal's been crushing those so they are definitely worth your attention um matt had a good question here uh when you know about an nba show uh yeah we have some discussions we might have an nba show coming soon it's gonna look different though because nba props are so hard like they are like i don't know, they move so quickly. It's almost impossible to do it right now, which is kind of why things are stalled as far as us going live with anything there because the COVID news, you literally have to be, the show would have to start 30 minutes before the first tip of the first game.

We've had guys getting pulled from layup line testing positive this week. It is just an absolute mess. I really genuinely think the best way to attack and like NBA props right now is something like a discord chat where there's the ability to actively notify you when we're on something immediately. And then we can kind of react to news as a community. It's just really hard to, to do a show like that and have it be timely and relevant

for you. We do a show in the middle of the day and then you listen to it an hour before tip on your ride home or something like that. It very much could be dead information and that's not something that we want to put out there for you. So we're working on it. We definitely want to. We want to continue to invest and grow our MBA product. That is why we brought Alex on the team to continue to do that. So we're figuring it out the best way to do it, to get you guys actionable bets that you can make and make money. So join the discord telling you it is worth it right now. It is like $44 until the end of February, which is super cheap. But then again, if you want to hold off and wait until March 1st, you get the new subscription for an entire year.

That is definitely the way to take advantage of it. So, all right. That wraps it up. Enjoy doing this. As always, ladies and gentlemen, thanks for being flexible and hanging out with us on a Saturday night instead of a Friday. We'll be back to do it again for Week 18. we'll be doing this up to the super bowl so uh hopefully maybe we get back to our friday spots we'll see what the world holds as far as covid news and all that stuff but uh we're going to continue to do our best to make

it a show that is actionable for you to my point we want to make sure that we have stuff that we're betting and stuff that is actionable for you to take in the moment so for alex and connor producer i'm ryan we'll see you next week