Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 18 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: January 8, 2022

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, Connor, Ryan and Alex discuss their top Week 18 NFL player prop bets.  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Get $200 free from New York Sports Betting Pre-Launch Promos 👉🏻 https://4for4.co/3EYGKuk  Use Promo Code BETSPERTS on PropSwap.com for a first-time deposit match up to $500 Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 18 Prop Drop Intro 14:21 Connor Prop No. 1 15:36 Ryan Prop No. 1 18:03 Alex Prop No. 1 19:53 Connor Prop No. 2 21:33 Ryan Prop No. 2 23:21 Alex Prop No. 2 27:24 Connor Prop No. 3 29:35 Ryan Prop No. 3 32:00 Props Betting Cards Recap 32:47 Viewer Props Q + A 49:22 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 52:32 Week 18 Prop Drop Outro 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show. Prop Drop Show presented by BetSperts. Download the BetSperts app today using the tracker plays you can share plays and more i am ryan noonan joined as always by my two favorite fellow prop d gents first connor allen in some random hotel still hopefully back to his own cave here shortly connor what's going on buddy yeah much. I think that my stay at the Hyatt place is coming to an end. I'm getting to the point where I know the receptionists. I know the people there.

It's a little strange, but kind of cool to walk around like we own the place. It's nice, but I'm living in a hotel room, so pros and cons. And it is time for a flu game. We did MJ back in the 98 finals uh you know bad pizza maybe out a little bit too long at the casino depends on who you ask depends on who you believe

but powered through big win for the uh for the bulls in the finals there and that's what we have going on with alex tonight prop stars under the weather but here for the people for the bulls and the finals there and that's what we have going on with alex tonight prof stars under the weather but here for the people for the bets alex what's going on brother what is up ryan connor great to see you both i wouldn't miss this for the world i do apologize if my voice is a little bit hoarse but i will gut it out connor i am curious how is the continental breakfast at the Hyatt? Well, I get free breakfast every day at Dunkin', so I don't need to eat the breakfast here. But the reviews are great.

Let me just tell you that. The reviews are outstanding. What's the Dunkin' breakfast for you? Do you have a go-to? Do you mix it up? It's kind of ridiculous, but I actually don't eat breakfast. They have these new egg white bites, though. They're pretty good.

I'll have maybe one of those. They have a veggie egg white bite, and then they got a bacon and cheddar one. It's not bad. Okay. It's worth trying. I don't know. I mean, they're a little expensive, but that's obviously free for me. So there's much on those.

It's yours. It's not free. You're paying for it somehow. Yeah, exactly. I'm team no breakfast too. I've been team no breakfast for about five and a half, six years. Um, I, I live the, the intermittent fasting life. I'm my eating window is like 1 PM to eight 30 or so. So, uh, your body gets used to it.

I literally have a few ounces of coffee, drink one of these bad boys, and then just have a big-ass salad at 1 o'clock. You get used to it. It's good. I'm old. The calories. If I started eating those breakfast every day,

my wife loves donuts. If I had donuts in the house all the time or all the baking things that she does, then, you know... Plus, it's not fun to have a donuts in the house all the time or all the baking things that she does, then you know. Plus it's not fun to have like a big gut bomb to start the day, you know, like eating heavy foods early and just kind of feel lethargic all day. It's never fun to start your day that way. No, it is. It's not. It's not for me.

So I do it in place of exercise at this point. Just, you know, some people do it with exercise or to support exercise. I do it in place of exercise at this point. Just, you know, some people do it with exercise or to support exercise. I do it in place of exercise. So, you know, just got to do it when you can. You know, whatever works. So we're going to do our best.

We are still obviously in the COVID fog. Things are actually a little bit better than I thought today. We have had numerous drops from games. So we do have some stuff out there in the marketplace. We all have a few bets. And then we will ideally get to your questions. So as you are joining and listening here in the YouTube streets, we appreciate that. Feel free to fire away, enter in the chat.

Let us know what you are looking at this week. We can share our thoughts on some of those and some spots that we're going to look for over the next 48 hours before games kick. And then we can start to talk about those things as well. I know that is our favorite part of the show. We're going to continue. So obviously this is week 18, the end of the regular season, which is incredible that that grind is over. But again, the playoffs are still here.

So we will still be here to bring props for you for the playoffs. That market should, I would think, form pretty fully by Friday nights. So our plan will be to continue to be here in this spot on Friday evenings, live for you. If you want to hang out with us on YouTube, always on podcasts, you know, shortly a couple hours after. So again, we will continue the third or the Wednesday night, move the line game by game breakdowns as well.

So I also want to tell you if you happen to be hanging out with us and maybe taking advantage of prize picks or something like that, or maybe you're on the New York, New Jersey border, and you've been, you know, having to drive over the bridge to make bets. It is your time, New York, New York sports betting goes live tomorrow morning. Really exciting time in the space. Again, something like this is just another one of those dominoes to fall that makes it a lot easier for some other states, smaller states to start to justify. And that is really exciting for all of us, whether you are in the industry like we are,

or if you're just looking into bets, anytime we start to have a full market, we can start to have different offerings. It keeps competition alive for books. There's just a lot going on that is good for the ecosystem and New York getting in the game is fantastic. Head over to the site, four for four.com slash betting.

We have some New York content. We are coming live. New York is coming with DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, and BetRivers to start. Caesars has some great offerings, so we kind of recommend Caesars off the top. But DraftKings has a double your money if the Knicks score a point. I cannot tell you guys how lucrative it can be early. Connor, you can speak to this. When, you know, we first got inundated in Illinois, these books are dying.

Customer acquisition is the game. And while we always advise you to be able to get the best of the number, you have optionality and have a little bit in all your accounts, whatever can work for you. That way you can always, you know, hamstrung by, I only bet on DraftKings. Take advantage of all of these promotions, all of them. Even if you do not intend to bet long-term on BetRivers, because the app is not very good. Sorry, BetRivers, improve your app. You check here on the banner here, four, four, four.com slash betting slash New York for all of the information,

all the links that you're going to want. Sign up on those links to take advantage of our promos. And there's lots of great stuff in there. There is New York specific content. You know, if producer Sal is telling you how to bet the giants and the Washington football team this weekend and producer Sal doesn't miss. So you want to get in and check out that article football team this weekend. And Producer Sal doesn't miss. So you want to get in and check out that article for sure.

There's a bunch more in there too. So congratulations, New York. This is your time. Again, check out all of our links. There's some great stuff going on over at BetSports too on the app. So after you download the BetSports app, there's some great links there too. But yeah, Connor, anything to share here as far as your experience on being inundated with the new stuff yeah i mean i know that like you know it's not exciting to deposit everywhere but at the same time like you know you're missing out on free money and like you

like i think if you're watching this show you're kind of like us and you treat this like kind of almost like an investment right and like you're basically like investing and making free money and then you can withdraw the money like there's no like playthroughs like there used to be with draft games or any of that really it's like most of the time it's deposit bet whatever make a bet and then you're usually able to withdraw the money like most of the money so um yeah i mean that's kind of like like it's like a one-time playthrough basically on most of the money so i would say that take advantage of every single free money offer that you can whatever you're willing to do even it's a couple hundred bucks here and there,

you know, just put it all together. And, I mean, I like to leave it all in there so that way you can shop lines. But, again, like, BetRivers, like, admittedly, I don't bet on BetRivers. I put my money in there, bet a promo, bet a few times, realized that scrolling through their app for every single player prop and, you know, it was hurting my fingers and my brain. So I decided to, you know, remove my money from there and call it a day. So yeah, I mean, again, find what you like best. Like personally, I only use, I use like the ones that I think are within reason and have different

lines. That's my biggest rationale. So yeah, I would say that just put as much money as you're willing to invest and go from there. Yeah. It is just take advantage of these things i did the same went over to uh riverboat casino that's maybe 25 minutes away that had william hill all of a sudden william hill caesars downloaded the app it's just william hill and it was awful but i took advantage of the three like risk-free 300 bets one and withdrew and you know i know, I don't bet they're almost at all anymore because it's a terrible product. But again, it was a, it was a free $300 bet. Like we got to be careful because we're, we have, you know, in the last month of the show,

we've eliminated half of our potential sponsors. I think we need to be better. Like I don't know how watching this, we can just, you know, it's all right. We'll figure out how we get there. We're for the people. We're not for the big business connor okay we're we're small business promotions and our our people and their accounts are their small business we want to help promote them so that's fair that's fair uh yeah so take advantage of the new york stuff um it's yeah it's the wild wild west goes live tomorrow morning congratulations uh there are lots of great ways to bet on like the national championship game. They're going to be throwing you lots of freebies.

You know, again, I'm not going to encourage multi-accounting, but you know, if you've got a spouse, they should probably bet a little bit too. And you know, that is advantageous to do the best that you can to take advantage of the promos within your house. My cats even will, would have multiple accounts potentially as well. So yeah, I've got other members in the family. Definitely. I'm not going to discourage you from creating multiple accounts. So welcome New York, shout out to all

the new New York people. Also, even if you're not from New York, this is great to potentially have some additional liquidity enter this space and this this market and if anything that could maybe reduce a little bit of the line volatility so i think this is a win for everybody yep absolutely getting a big player like new york in there is is fantastic so welcome no offense to prize picks if you're in new york and you keep firing off a prize picks it's great it's fine we are friendly um but now you just have again optionality which is the whole point here so uh another thing i want to tell you about before we dig in to the prop sorry about house keeming at the top we have a couple new things to share the new york stuff is big i want to tell you about prop swap as well if you're not familiar prop swap.com you're can enter promo code BetSperts. That's B-E-T-S-P-E-R-T-S in our first deposit match up to $500 on BetSperts or on PropSwap.

Real live tickets. If you go and say this is great for futures, it's legal. It's basically an opportunity to hedge out in a easier, more seamless way. Right. So say you take, for instance, like a 50 to one long shots on. I don't even know. Again, I make stuff up, but say, you know, you took the Cowboys 50 to one to win the Super Bowl preseason and now that's moved significantly. But you don't think they're going to win. But that ticket is very valuable to someone who maybe wants some of that action. Instead of them buying in at 10 to 1, they have the opportunity. They can buy in and buy your tickets for a much cheaper cost. And obviously, they have your odds, your physical ticket.

When you buy a ticket in a casino or actual ticket, you cannot transfer anything. That's a digital slip. The physical ticket is yours to do whatever you want with. And PropSwap basically is the middleman that helps you sell it. And it's a pretty cool way. Obviously, if you were to hedge out of that, you would need significant funds to do so. And this allows you to do it in a cheaper, cheaper way. So definitely head over to PropSwap.com, check it out. I know Alex and Connor, Connor has a little experience here too, but Alex, what do you got to say? Yeah, I actually have a ticket that is quite valuable i've talked about

it on twitter before i've gotten some offers in my dms that is the calves to make the playoffs at plus 2 000 which is looking really good so yeah i'm interested in checking it out as well yeah take advantage of that promo code for sure. Connor, we met the owner in Vegas, a passionate guy. I'm excited to partner with them moving forward. And I think it's a great thing because like you said, if you were trying to buy out of that market to get the actual money where you can still get a profit, like you're needing thousands of dollars and that's really hard for a lot of people. And this gives them the opportunity to do so. Plus this is also like, so people always talk about like, you know, cashing out like, oh, should I cash out or should I hedge? I mean, sports books straight up. I mean, they screw you on your cash out.

Like, I mean, every time they're screwing the cash out. This kind of is like almost the equivalent of, you know, being able to have like a market where, you know, like like just like trading, essentially, where someone's going to offer you a price that they think is a fair and equilibrium, like kind of like, you know, you're going to, you're going to be at more bang for your buck is my, you know, my take on it. So I think it's a smarter way to do it. And, you know, like I, you know, I don't have that many paper tickets, but I mean, there are plenty of people who do. And for big futures, like, you know, with PropSwap, I would consider, you know, putting more like on or like putting you getting a paper ticket because it's I have the ability to use PropSwap versus cash out, which limits your optionality, as you mentioned. So I think that's a good way to go.

Yeah. Check it out, everyone. Again, New York stuff, PropSwap stuff in their show notes. So if you were, again, watching on YouTube, you can click down and get all those links. If you are listening in a podcast, click down on more, scroll down a little bit, all that's in there. So check it out. Now it is go time. It is time for props. Thank you for hanging out with us with the housekeeping stuff, the stuff that pays the bills at the top. So we appreciate it. Again, if you're hanging out in the chat, fire off questions. We're going to go around, share some of ours, and then we'd love to get your thoughts on week 18. Connor, get us started. What is your first prop of the week?

It's my first one of the week, and I don't even understand how this is still around, actually. So Zach Pascal, I took under two and a half receptions. Right now, minus 136 on points bet. I believe it's off the board everywhere else. The Colts right now, 15-point favorites. Expect to just run all over their opponent. Expect to see a really low-volume passing attack from them.

Not to mention Pascal has been under this number in six straight games. And now you're looking at the return potentially of Paris Campbell. He had a great week of practice according to coaches. So he could also take away from this kind of target share here. Like, I don't really understand it. I would play this up to, maybe one minus 150 minus 160 even um because i just think that this is like really like it's just the wrong land i think there should be you know one and a half at even money or maybe like you know two and a half and minus 200 basically yeah i stayed awake because i thought

it moved i remember i thought we saw some info in the chat and I thought it was gone or it moved. So I didn't get it, but I love, I love Pascal Lunders. It's back. It's back at a points bet. Okay. So look at points bet out here, redeeming themselves, you know, you're saying not nice things about him the other day. So good. I like that quite a bit. My first one, Gabe Davis over 39 and a half receiving yards. This is minus one 10 on Caesesars i think it's out there minus 115 or so on draft kings uh i mean he barely got there last week he got 40 yards um but again

like the underlying stuff is great he ran a route on 92 of the dropbacks again we have emmanuel sanders out here and i know that the bills don't need this all the way right there's a chance that they don't need to play their starters late but we had an instance last year where they didn't need week 17 against miami and they absolutely clobbered them and they do need it they do need to win because they need to lock up the afc east so in that scenario where you're going to have to actually still play even theoretically just the first half with your starters like you only have 53 active roster spots so like if you are keeping all your guys active you only have so many guys that you can then like pull for your

starters and so like gabe davis is probably not affected by starters being pulled uh in a scenario where um you know, with Emmanuel Sanders out. Like, sure, Stephon Diggs probably comes out after he hits milestones that he needs to hit, if that's a thing. But like, Gabe Davis is probably playing this whole game 39 and a half against a really bad Jets secondary. Weather looks okay there, which is always something to be concerned about.

I mean, it's not great. It's Buffalo in January, but it's still, it's not something that's making me reluctant to do this. He smashed them for like 127 yards, I think the first time they met. So love this number under 40. I mean, under 45, I think Gabe Davis is an absolute smash. Again, minus 110 on Caesar. So love this one.

I like that a lot. I mean, I didn't even think about it like that because if the Bills do get up enough and they've kind of bench their starters in the third quarter, there's a realistic chance that Gabe Davis becomes wide receiver one, you know what I mean, and is like the guy with Trubisky. I mean, I don't really know how valuable that is, but, I mean, he could certainly get an extra, like, whatever, 10, 15 yards in the fourth quarter

if he really needs it. Yeah, if he needs it to that point. If they're going to be in a spot where they've got to bench these guys, they needed Gabe Davis and Stevon Diggs to get there. So I feel pretty confident in that one. Again, they need to win the game to win the division and to host a playoff game, which I know that they want to do. So basically it's them going to New England

or New England going to them for the most part. So they want that one. Alex, what's your first one? My first one is, and this pains me a little bit, fellas, but it's Cordero Patterson under 35 and a half rushing yards. Saw this at minus 115. Yeah. CPAT, he's been ineffective the last three weeks. He's been held under in three straight games. He only had double digit carries one time over that three-game sample as well really appears to be on a strict kind of 12 to 14 touch count um mike davis is also running a good a bit bit more effectively he's pretty much

in a 50 50 timeshare split with c pat in the backfield this is also a brutal matchup versus the saints defense their first and in rushing DBOA. They've given up the third fewest rushing yards, two opposing running backs. Also, I like the fact that this is a must-win game for the Saints. They'll be returning a ton of players to their defense. Stud linebacker Demario Davis, he is one of the best run-stuffing linebackers in all of football. They also have a lot of D-line depth returning as well. New Orleans held him to nine

rushing attempts for 10 yards back in week nine, and it just seems like they've been managing his touches all year. I have to imagine in a meaningless week 18 game for Atlanta, they may even be quicker to pull the plug on him or to limit him to a touch count. So I really like fading Cordell Patterson under 35 and a half rushing yards in a very difficult matchup. Sorry, Sal. Cover your earmuffs. I know you're a big CPAT fan, but I like it. Yeah, the usage is just down.

I think there's enough there to take it under there. It's just kind of a pattern. So I like that one quite a bit. And again, late in that game, they very well could go their other way too and manage him. So I think he's obviously carved out a nice role for them moving forward. So Connor, number two. So my second one here, Derek Carr, under 25 and a half completions. This is minus 130 at DK. Pretty aggressive line, I thought here. The Chargers allowing their top five in completions allowed per game at just 21 per game to opposing passers. And Carr has gone

under this number in six of the last eight games. I think Darren Waller returns. It's basically saying that he comes back, but I highly doubt he's at 100%, but he'll be out there. So I think it's kind of like, I mean, almost a good scenario where like he's going to be running and playing at less than a hundred percent, which is, I don't think conducive to actual like, you know, plays here. So we have him projected for 23.8 completions here. There's a lot of wiggle room. I'd play this at, I would consider playing this up to like, you know,

I guess minus one 30 is my limit on 25 and a half, but I would consider it a 24 and a half as well, to be honest, at like even money. So yeah, I have my next place from that game as well but we'll get there in a bit okay yeah and that's a good look too i mean if you think about it like waller's awesome but like he's not had that many move the needle type games this year so and again like combination of coming off of the injury and covid we've seen some of that like COVID lamaze stick around for guys for a little bit so yeah I think that that's a good a good good play

really they haven't scored they have like six games in a row where they haven't scored like more than 23 points like they've been they've been I know they won three in a row but like it has not been because this offense has been like on all cylinders. Yeah, I mean, it would take the Chargers scoring four long touchdowns, basically very fast. Yeah. And have like 40 pass attempts, basically, like 40, 45. Yeah. My next one, Tyler Huntley, under 226 passing yards.

This is a Connor Allen special, you know, below average quarterback under in the passing game he's only taught this once that was that cleveland game where they had to come from behind and basically chuck non-stop in the second half and this is a game that theoretically matters to both teams they both have very very very slim shots to make the playoffs, but they have won nonetheless going into the game. And both coaches have stated that they are trying to win. So I don't think we have a scenario where, you know, the game script gets out of hands really actually,

this is a five point favorite or so depending on your book for the, the Ravens. So, you know, Huntley prefers to do his damage on the grounds. I think he runs a little bit. You know, I think he's going to feed Mark Andrews. I took a Mark Andrews over, but I think that that's not, you know, that number's gone, but I don't think that that's a problem here with the Huntley piece. It's the other guys that really haven't been doing very much. You know, Bateman's been up and down. There's issues with Sammy Watkins. I think Hollywood Brown mispracticed on Thursday. I didn't see his Friday report.

He probably plays, but Steelers are still going all out. Like TJ Watts going for defensive player of the year stuff. The Ravens have offensive line issues up front. So Huntley over 225 or under 225, I think is a really nice look. I like it. Yeah. I mean, he's been like just all over the place but like you said like you know he's only got there if they're playing from behind so yeah i just we saw big ben

like what was that like 46 attempts and 120 something yards they're not running away from the ravens here and making them go into comeback mode So I feel pretty good about that. Alex, number three or number two for you, buddy. Yeah, I am going Julio Jones over 29 and a half receiving yards. I don't know if you guys recall this, but I went on a tangent a few weeks ago when Cortland Sutton was around like 24 and a half receiving yards versus the Raiders. I talked about how I will live and die by the sword with my chances at him at that number, the amount of routes he runs, the talent situation, et cetera. That applies to Julio, in my opinion, at 29.5 receiving yards, especially when the Titans also have something to hypothetically play for,

trying to lock up the first seed and a first round bye in the playoffs furthermore you can always sell me when i see a practice in full next to julio um yeah he's just dealt with a plethora of injuries all season obviously it's been a really terrible season but despite that he's eclipsed this in six of nine games this season and that's with him like not even being able to finish four or five games uh healthy just being on the sidelines so back when he was like had his like most healthy stretch of the season he was just automatically routinely over this number and i think like six straight games uh so yeah it's the fact that he practiced in full this week i may be a sucker but i just can't help but bite at him sub 30 yards also Also, the Texans are a great matchup.

They're ranked 24th in EPA allowed per dropback, 31st in coverage grade. Titans offense also looked as good as they have all season, in my opinion, last week. And that was without Julio on the field. I think they'd love nothing more than him to get involved in the offense ahead of the playoffs, potentially lock up a first-round bye, and, yeah, just get things all systems go for a potential Super Bowl run. He may not be the dominant alpha wide receiver that he once was, but he is still plenty capable of going for over 30 yards against this Texans secondary.

So give me Julio Jones over 29.5 receiving yards. Connor, you have some thoughts here? I took it as well. I did take this earlier. You just beat him on the sheet. Yeah, he beat me on the sheet. It was going to be one of my plays. That makes me feel great, Connor.

Yeah, I just think it's like he's healthy. He got into full practice. He's gone over this number in three or four games where he's played more than 50% of the snaps. I mean, if he's going to play and he's going to be out there i mean barring a mid game injury which for him is a lot more likely than any other wide receiver but still like you know i think that there's a pretty good chance of playing more than 50 of the snaps against tech secondary is not good in you know muslim game for the titans i think that it's you know i think i think he's in a good spot here to get, we're not asking for much.

Like I thought this would be like 40 or something like that. You know, like I thought 30, like 29 is just like borderline disrespectful. But I get it because, you know, he's been really bad and injured and banged up this year, but. But he hasn't quite been 30 yards bad. Yeah. Like, I mean, that's like, that's aggressive. Yeah. He's, I saw it and I was like, what? I was really confused.

And then I was doing some research. I'm like, is he even playing? He's coming back. And yeah, I was surprised that of all things posted early in the week was like Julio Jones was up early. I mean, it is like Laquan Treadwell's lines are higher than Julio Jones. I mean, this is like, you know, what does the world come to? Laquan Treadwell starts and finishes football games yeah that's true but we're talking about literally the all-time leader in yards per game so like you know i get i get it it's julio jones

uh 29 is disrespectful is a low bar so he can play play 50% of the snaps and, you know, leave with the hammy and you could probably still get there. So no problem with that. Again, we are we each have one more and then we'll get to your questions. So again, feel free to hang out, send some stuff to us.

We'll probably also talk about a couple of different spots as well that we like that we're going to look for in the, you know, 48 hours leading up to kick and go from there. So Connor, number three for you. Yeah. So my last one here and one that, you know, I just stumbled onto right before the show, I took Zay Jones under three and a half receptions at plus 105,

kind of along the same reasoning as before, but now we're looking at Darren Waller, you know, probably coming back and at least like playing. So, you know, if he's playing, if you kind of look at the splits with Zay Jones and like how his usage has kind of like changed. So, you know, for most people, I think, assume like, oh, Henry Ruggs went on, Zay Jones kind of ascended, but that didn't happen. Henry Ruggs went on week seven. So Zay Jones' stats after week seven were like one catch in week nine, one catch in week 10, one catch in week 10, one catch in week 11. You know, like he was doing basically nothing in those games. And then

Darren Waller got injured like mid week 12 against Dallas and Zay Jones erupted. Like, I mean, like, you know, he's gone, been crushing this number consistently. So now we have Zay, or we have now Darren Waller coming back. I think that now we're in a position where taking the under a plus money on three and a half receptions could be pretty beneficial, um, to, you know, being able to like kind of take advantage of the books looking at like, oh, well he's done really well lately, but like kind of looking at that usage there. If Darren Waller is able to play, I mean, even 75% of the normal compliment of snaps, you're looking at Zay Jones probably in the two, three reception range rather than like

the four to five range. So I think a plus money, it's a good look. Also 45 and some yards is an interesting look as well. But even then there were some times, you know, earlier on in the season where he was able to, you know, randomly capitalize on, you know, a bomb here or there, like, you know, 30 yard catch. So I think that the receptions and the volume play is probably the way to go

for me. Yeah, it's a good point. I think it's a good look. I think there's some – it's an interesting call-out that it wasn't necessarily Henry Ruggs and it was more Waller stuff. So, yeah, I think that that's a good call. It's Zay Jones. He's not a horribly, like, overly efficient receiver.

So, you know, betting against that type of player. Deeper ADOT stuff too, like that's just on the reception side. You're taking out some of the variants that would come with a yardage prop, for instance, you're focusing in on the volume. I think that's probably smart. That's actually what I did with my last bet too, because I took Stoney and Michelle over 14 and a half carries.

Got it at minus 130 on DraftKings. I was really considering this morning a play on Sonny Michel on his rushing yards over again. It was 65 and a half. I thought it was probably a pretty sharp line, to be honest. But again, a little lower than last week. We hit it last week. He went over. Tougher matchup.

The Niners are second in in rushing success rate third in rushing epa on the season so it's a definitely a more difficult matchup than it was last week the last week's matchup wasn't great either but this number from a carry standpoint is is way way off uh 14 and a half just doesn't make a lot of sense he has five weeks here as a starter 24 20 18 27 and 19 um it's just not really sniffing the low teens here so over 14 and a half again it's just cam acres and i know that cam acres the story is awesome and i hope he comes back i hope he plays it's insane that a dude from like we talked about it on the wednesday show like this was used to be a career ending injury you blow out your achilles you are done so if you come back you're

coming back in like a year and a half and you are a shell of yourself so for this dude to come back in a couple of months is wild it's awesome he's not coming back and taking 50 of sony michelle's workload in week 18 he's just not so this is a play where you don't have to worry about Sony being efficient. I don't have to worry about Sony breaking a big run. I just have to assume he continues to get at least 75%, 80% of the carries, and I just don't understand why Jake Funk or Cam Akers are going to start to eat into that. So I like this in a spot where they need the game to win the division

uh and get their number two seed in the playoffs so sony over 14 and a half on draft kings is a really strong look um i'd probably go up to 15 and a half if that is moved i haven't looked in the last half hour 45 minutes or so that's probably where we top it out at uh and probably 130 is about as high as i'd go in the juice too so So yeah, that's a, that's a mispriced line. Yeah. Same premise. So, all right. Alex has been kind of like us.

Like we've been having a hard time trying to find props. So that is, that is what we have for now. Again, we will hit you with the recap here. Let you know all that we have run down gabe davis from me over 39 and a half receiving yards also tyler huntley under 226 passing yards is on draft kinks uh sony michelle over 14 and a half carries connor has three here zach pascal under two and a half receptions derrick carr under 25 and a half completions, which I think is an aggressive line that correlates well with Zay Jones under three and a half receptions as well.

And our boy prop stars under on Cordero Patterson, 35 and a half rush yards, rest in peace Cordero and Julio Jones over 29 and a half with a Connor Allen stamp of approval on that one as well. So good stuff there. It is time for any questions that you guys have. So could be a light week. Hey, my wife would love it if I got up a little bit early tonight. Sometimes these run a little bit longer. So happy to do so.

Let's see here. Brian rivers is uh yeah he's talking about taking promos take advantage of promos whenever you can um we want to do our best to not say bad things about books anymore but uh yeah bet rivers is not super mobile friendly in comparison to some of the other things out there. But take advantage in New York. All the promos, if you missed it at the top of the show, head into the show notes. There's links on how to take advantage of our offers. All the New York books that you can take advantage to get all that free money that they give. I'm telling you, it is literally free money.

You know, bet $1 on this, win $100. Bet $5 on the national championship game. Either side, if you win, you win $150. Depending on the the book it's all in there i'll find the link take advantage of that justin wants to know do you guys play more live unders during the last week of the season compared to other weeks uh connor any thoughts on live bets live unders anything like that well so like live prop betting hasn't really been that much of a thing, to be honest. Like it's pretty new. I mean, like there was, it was available last year, but I didn't dabble too much till this year. So I mean, and even then before I was, you know, shuffling through, you know, my shady outs, which I definitely would take bet, but you know, I mean,

those were also trash. And then, you know, bet online, which I didn't really like to use that much. So it was kind of like live, you know, live prop betting wasn't really a thing for me until this year. And even then, like, it's something where I have to be very much dialed in. I feel like, I don't know how you guys feel about live prop betting, but it's one of those things where I do good, but I have to be like focusing like on what's going on a lot. And I feel like that's the only time I do well. If I'm like lazily betting things, I end up in trouble. So. Yeah. Alex, do you dabble in the live prop market? I'm interested in it. Unfortunately, live prop betting is not available in the great state of Oregon. I also, you know, I think Ryan and Connor, you guys can both attest to us. On average,

I'll have sometimes, you know, between 20 and 40 props over the course of the weekend that I'm, you know, monitoring and invested in that it's kind of overwhelming in and of itself that, uh, yeah, I just, uh, I agree. Do you want to be locked in laser focus? In my opinion, if you are going to dabble in something like live betting. So yeah, just, uh, with the amount of kind of, uh, coverage that I have with so many props going and, you know, also watching the game and compiling data, et cetera, et cetera.

It's just, I feel like I don't have the time required to kind of give to it. So perhaps in the future. I'll live bet sides and totals. I haven't got into live betting props as much, it, I find that if you are dialed in and I typically do, I'd be honest. Like I treat Sunday for as much as I can, uh, like a work day and, you know, try to take advantage of those things, you know, games, you know, with every game on the TV, um, you know, keep multiple monitors up. I keep all the books up because you will find discrepancies and tendencies from certain books. Again, this goes back to having optionality to be able to take

advantage. Certain books and bookmakers move things faster. They will suspend things faster. So there are some opportunities in particular, one book in particular that i like to do live sides and totals on because um it's just off compared to the rest of the market and typically in a way that i find to be advantageous so yeah i mean it is something to not do casually you know passively on your phone if you were like watching via like a scoring app and be like oh i'm gonna take it like you gotta be dialed in and uh otherwise there's you're just kind of firing off points bet right points bets softer for live betting i mean it's like baby soft you know it is like really so there's sometimes like you know as far as like

we're talking about totals they could be three three and a half points off of where draft kings and fan duel are um you know on a side one and a half points off of where DraftKings and FanDuel are. You know, on a side, one and a half points or, you know, like those things matter massively. We're talking about key numbers just based off of like the first drive, you know, the first possession after halftime. Certain things like that where you're like, that shouldn't just move as much as it did. And there's just massive advantages. So, yeah, their live algorithm is by far the worst. Would you guys say that PointsBet is as soft as Dan Rivera's calves?

I would say that the book is more fully formed than poor Danny's willow calves. Dan's going to be in the gym tomorrow all day just because of your guys bullying. I'm not over the emoji that he left me on 4 for 4's Discord.

He did. Shots were fired. He came at me. I'm a member of 4 for 4's Discord. I highly recommend anybody watching to join this Discord. It is excellent. I'm providing NBA picks there every Wednesday. Said Wednesday, I went 3-0, by the way.

I put out a play. I thought it was a brilliant, fantastic play, and I get a clown emoji from Dan. It was the emoji heard around the world. I am not joking. I had like three or four separate DMs, people asking me, yo, is there beef between you and Dan? What's going on? Like why did Dan clown emoji you?

And, yeah, so I mean I did the play. It was. We almost had to get our HR department involved. I mean it was – now that we're a big corporate company, like Noonan would take off his his one hat, put on another one and have to sit you guys down for a little bit of meeting. Yeah. Peer mediation, you know, I could add another conference call to my day. I don't have enough calls. So I'd love to get on a call with you and Dan and just talk about emoji.

Yeah. You know, you get the kangaroo. Don't be offended by the kangaroo. I don't understand it necessarily, but Dan is. I know the you get the kangaroo. Don't be offended by the kangaroo. I don't understand it necessarily, but Dan is. I know the origin of the kangaroo, actually. Okay. I'll keep that between Dan and I, though, unless another clown appears and I put his business out there. I think that's a nice bridge to you repairing.

You know, you taking on the kangaroo, not sharing him with the group, not kissing and telling. I think that's, uh, that's appropriate. So, uh, yeah, but again, prop stars in the discord guys, discord is popping off. Um, we're just, we're banging out NBA winners along with all of our NFL stuff. Golf is back. Uh, we have the best golf writer in the space. I feel, that's not even hyperbole to be honest. I mean, we have the best golf writer in the space. I feel that's not even hyperbole, to be honest. I mean, we have the best golf writer in the space if you're betting golf.

He is a massive, massive, massive data nerd. So, you know, it blends well with what we have going on. So, again, football ends, golf ramps up. Even if you're not necessarily a golf fan fan you are a betting fan and you do like winning so uh join us take advantage of the discord uh all right what else we got here um some love for trubisky trubisky is going to rush for 176 yards and three scores yeah i don't know man trubisky maybe. Trubisky, I think it's more Matt Nagy than

Trubisky. I'm just putting that out there. Trubisky, let's give him another chance with a non-Cloud head coach. He's really bad. He's not great. He can't throw to one side of the field. I mean, yeah, he just misses so many open throws. Connor, you look like

you could be Trubisky's brother. Yeah? Don't you think, Brian? I'll take that. I'm pretty sure I saw Trubisky at least once in Chicago, like at a bar. Did you guys look at each other? I looked at him. I stared at him.

It was one dude in a nicer, upscale restaurant with five women, and he looked exactly like Trubisky. It has to be him. Sounds like something Mitch Trubisky would do. Classic Mitch. I was thinking Connor.

Connor's got a little bit of Stewie from Succession. I can see that for sure. A little bit of Stewie. Like, oh, it's Connor. Oh, man. Stewie's a great character. Our boy Shaw Props. We got to get some hockey props

from you. You guys have been killing it on the hockey side here. Just football news, since we got some fellow football heads here. How disappointing is all this AB news? Duke could have been one of the greatest without all the drama. I think despite all the drama, he's one of the greatest. I mean, he had had a six i think seven year run of just being absolutely dominant

and crushing you know as kind of a second tier prospect to be able to like blow up and do what he did his desire to burn bridges uh and things that matter as far as like hall of fame goes is questionable, but like the dude's still one of the best of all time sucks for the box from a big picture football standpoint. Cause they definitely need him with Chris Godwin outs. I still balling out on the field when he's out there and healthy. So I don't know why you think it's beneficial to throw the goat under the bus and pretend that your relationship should be anything similar to what his relationship with Rob Gronkowski should be when they've been like friends for a decade. Yeah, it's bizarre.

It's sad. And I hope that he figures it out for himself moving forward. But he's still one of the best. He is. And if you look at like the greatest wide receivers all time, and it's like honestly rare when some of these guys like don't have sort of the off-field issues or like kind of personality traits uh that ab has shown like i grew up you know like an eagles fan with tarrell owens and just watched him like kind of have a similar effect to the eagles locker room

and they were bidding for a super bowl and just completely kind of destroyed the chemistry from within there. I remember Randy Moss as well. And just like, yeah, outside of like Calvin Johnson and like, you know, maybe Andre Johnson. If you look at like a lot of like the great wide receivers, it kind of comes with the territory. Just kind of having some, I don't know if screws loose is the right word, but just personality quirks and stuff like that. So I just kind of think it's par for the course with a lot of these guys. Yeah, I mean, a lot of I mean, admittedly, my experience with even like, you know, Division One football players. And, you know, it's like like these are some of the most arrogant people on Earth.

And like so him saying like, you know, I'm the best player on the team, blah, blah, blah. Like that's not really like that different than what 80% of the players would say. It's just that oftentimes they're not given like a platform to do that. Or they also know, they also like have that some kind of understanding like, hey, maybe I shouldn't trash my teammates or the greatest quarterback of all time or, you know, anything like that. And his argument was like complete garbage in that. And then we're talking about the interview after for those who don't

understand. But yeah, it's that interview after he's like, you know, Tom Brady makes this, Gronk got paid a nice contract, but I'm the best player in the field. So why did I get a prove it deal? You know, like just a total straw man, nonsensical argument that like any reasonable person would be like, shut the fuck up.

Like you're, you're an idiot. Like you play one season, you'll get a good contract i do think though that like uh part of that attitude is why he's so great like obviously you kind of have to take the good with the bad but yeah just that mentality of you know you above everything else is you know kind of contributes to him being one of the great players in nfl history at his position but yeah that seems to be a reoccurring kind of theme amongst a lot of wide receivers. They're not selfish.

It's an inherently very selfish position. There's nothing like – I mean, I think that arrogance can feed into success in a lot of scenarios. But it's also very much on display right now in a bad way. Not a great look, but yeah, still one of the best of all time. And,

you know, hopefully he can, hopefully he can figure it out. So Brian talked about the Julio thing. Julio has moved up on FanDuel. DraftKings has it at 29 still. So viable out there for you folks. Looks like Dizzle69 also tailing the zay jones uh number uh dizzle love it thanks

for hanging out uh sam wants to know does alex ever have nightmares about the bear i do i don't even sleep with a bear on on our last uh broadcast of this, I will go into depth about the origin of the bear and how he ended up on the wall. So that is a reason to stay tuned. But we need to ask, did you kill it? That will be revealed. Oh, my God. Leave it as hanging. All right.

Producer Sal with the incredible artwork, as always. Yeah, that's uh i like a little cliffhanger i appreciate it um sammy also talked about taking advantage of live betting he wants live bets uncle lenny under 10 and a half receptions which is i i think i had his uh under in that game at six and a. He had like six receptions on the first drive. So I think that was like three weeks ago, actually, where I called Lenny under five and a half. It was either five and a half receptions, and he literally had either five or six receptions on the first drive.

I think it was the Saints game. I think he had a bunch. Yeah, it was the Saints game. It was the Saints game. Right away, just like. Yep. Shot props. We're giving PointsBet a lot of free advice tonight. Yeah, I mean,

whatever. They're not listening. If they are, thanks. Hit us up. Ryan at BetsBirdsGroup.com if you want to talk about sponsorship options for next year. It's just their book. It's them and who does their stuff. It's, it's them. And you know,

who does their stuff? So it's, it's, they're going to continue to be slow. We'll continue to take advantage of them in the, in the live markets. Shop props is going to hit us with maybe some, some stuff tomorrow in the four for four discord.

All right. Little hockey props on a Saturday night. Shop props, shout outs. He is in there and hanging out. Meg, this is good. If Connor is Stewie, then props is Roman. Yeah, I don't know if there's an old lady in your life that you are sending pictures to or.

My wife's an older lady, so. Okay. There you go. It's similar. She's four years older lady. Okay. There you go. It's similar. She's four years older. We got a similar dynamic. It's very, very similar. At one point, she was 14

while I was 10. Okay. Is that a Portland thing that's legal up there? Yeah. Can't celebrate Thanksgiving, but 8, 10 is the age of consent okay all right hopefully we get flagged on youtube for talking about uh is that real already so we'll see i heard a rumor that uh i don't i don't know if it's like we shouldn't mention who but some uh

another similar show or youtube channel got struck or taken down because they discussed the whole DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Russell. Is that why? I think they talked about other things that are, yeah. Like a more explicit explanation or. They've been pushing the limits on that for a while, you know, like optimal penetration points and positions yeah adops instead of you know average depth of of target it's who knew it could get so edgy in these uh fantasy football and prop streets the bit the bit is hilarious but yeah they they

got banned like permabanned no it was quick this is a quick little little like hey you can't do this they wear that like a badge of honor yeah i'm sure they do it is a great bit so it is uh it's fantastic so uh all right um that wraps us up which is great 50 minutes in beautiful we can move on to producer sal's winners i have i have a feeling that I know what Producer Sal's picks are today. I don't know if there are multiple. I think maybe there's just one. But I gave it a long look. And if it's not, then I'll tell you what it is.

But Producer Sal, prop tool bet of the week. Oh, Elijah Mitchell. oh elijah mitchell i was close uh i looked at this too yeah over 17 and a half uh rushing attempts this is uh even odds on draft kings and we are projecting him for 20 we took an early position on elijah mitchell's rushing yards over which is a dead number now but um i don't hate this whatsoever uh connor you were considering this yeah i mean i might i i think i just think it's going to end up at 16 and a half like based on what it's currently at so you know i mean like it's the juices towards the under um i think that we're going to get a 16 and a half we got a 16 and a half like based on what it's currently at so you know i mean like it's the juices towards the under um i think that we're gonna get a 16 and a half we got a 16 and a half on playing the over um i mean he's basically seeing almost all the work you know um he's hit over this and i mean essentially almost every game that he started and finished you know at this point um i can pull up

the exact uh you know stats here but especially as of late like basically when he's been even remotely healthy like the last four games hit it straight he got um you know week nine he didn't hit it but then after that week eight and seven he hit it again you know like it's literally been uh almost every week that he started and finished has been like automatic on this number so i think that we get to 16 and a half i like it even more alex any thoughts yeah it makes sense to me i was uh looking at his props as well they interested me just when he's on the field and like you guys said relatively healthy he gets absolutely monster workloads i think he's as close to a lock as it gets uh if he gets 20 carries in this game so yeah i think it makes a lot of sense yeah it's a good

look uh connor makes a good point kind of where the juice is. There may be a chance for this to move and take advantage of that. So I don't hate that at all. I thought we were going to get Juszczyk bets here. This is a prop tool favorite, typically. Our projections on Juszczyk are always on the favorable side. It is a brand guy for number 44. Sal absolutely loves him. So, you know, I kind of looked at Juszczyk's trends.

I've looked at his tendencies in these games against the Rams. I've been looking at his snap rates. You know, Juszczyk's receiving number is a little interesting. So I thought we were going to get a Juszczyk look today. But do not hate the Elijah Mitchell thing. Again, bodes well for us where we have that lean on the on the rushing yards number so again player prop tool part of the betting sub at four for four uh again you can check that out in the show notes as well how to find more

information uh how to take advantage of the discounts here through the end of february and then mid-january we are opening it back up for the annual sub. So in a couple weeks, or really in a week or so, I think you're going to be able to secure your sub for all of next season instantly, which is good because that'll keep you in the NBA streets, keeps you in the golf streets. We have some other new sports that we are flirting with to, again, help you scratch that itch once football goes away and you want to continue to get some action down.

So absolutely love it. You guys have any other thoughts? Any spots that you want to, I guess, we'll go around real quick. Connor, do you have any thoughts around some guys that you were looking at and considering here in the prop market before the numbers come out? Admittedly, I had probably the fewest spots that i had circled like ever um and you know part of that was due to you know i guess just like lack of motivation to prep for this week because so much is going to change uh i mean we already saw like dallas

and philly at the beginning of the week we're like oh they're probably gonna play i mean they might play most of their starters and just play it out. And then now it's kind of like, I don't know if they're going to play any of their starters. And so now it's like, why would I even really bother handicapping the game because we don't even know who's going to play. So I think that the biggest edge here is going to be waiting until like an hour before kick. And there's going to be tons of reports.

They're going to be like, you know, Oh, this guy's only going to play like a half or a quarter. And like, you know, we're going to be able to get some really, really good bets down. We did last year we took whatever, like it was like Josh Allen's over under was like 250. He only, we only knew he was going to play like a half. He still threw for 220. He made it close, but I mean, 250 on a half is an egregious line against Miami.

And then, you know, there was Jalen Hurts' props last year where, you know, Silva kind of tipped us off that, you know, Jalen Hurts was going to be benched at some point. He threw for 97 yards, I believe, and, you know, his over-under was like 200. People got big mad about that. Yeah. I mean mean they openly tanked i mean i'm willing to say that they tanked i mean they started night south but i don't know

i mean maybe maybe they disguised it well enough that they didn't like it wasn't that bad but like it was pretty blatant i thought yeah um so yeah i think that those scenarios are just things that the next few days we're going to kind of figure it out be ready unload the clip like these are like some of the highest you know expected value bets you're going to kind of figure it out, be ready, unload the clip. Like these are like some of the highest, you know, expected value bets you're going to make, in my opinion. It's a great point because, yeah, right now we don't have a ton. And people talk about how there is so much variance in a week like this because of the unknown. Well, that's the advantage. That's the advantage that we want to bring to you and then we bring to ourselves is grinding those little edges and news and being on you know alert ready to fire off at some of

that stuff so that way we can take advantage of massively mispriced numbers and have an understanding of where the baseline is and what should be for what we're going to see out there is uh you know taking advantage of the information so highly highly recommend the fantasy life app again like it comes out fast those those alerts are quick you get push notifications they come to your phone you don't have to worry about like being on twitter non-stop it i'm telling you and it beats twitter uh you know you'll get stuff that'll come out there before someone else tweets it out. So highly recommend Fantasy Life app. It's fantastic for that. So Alex, any thoughts on how to approach the week here in 48 hours before kick or any particular leans that you want to kind of highlight that we should be looking out

for? Yeah, I love what Connor said regarding his strategy, kind of waiting until, you know, a lot of those reports come out within like an hour, hour and a half prior to kickoff. I think you'll find a lot of really good spots that way. I was kind of looking at some of the incentives that, you know, players had. You hear that tossed around a lot for the last two weeks. You know, guys like Kyle Pitts, he's 63 yards away from the all-time record for yards by a rookie tight end. You've got Gronk with some contract incentives, I believe Mike Evans, you know, needing, I think it's 60 yards or 58 yards to have his eighth straight 1K season. So, yeah, looking at all those stuff, unfortunately, you know, the books already have built those into the prop.

So not a lot of value as far as, you know, some of those incentives are concerned. Books are a little bit sharper with that. So, yeah, I think the strategy is to kind of uh ignore those because they already seem to be properly adjusted and you have to kind of do a connor outline regarding just uh you know kind of grinding out an hour 90 minutes before kickoff looking for all those pieces of news you know where guys are going to be on snap counts or potentially not playing the second half and stuff. And yeah, just taking advantage of that. Yep. Keep that free. Keep that time and take advantage of it. Be ready to go and ready to fire.

If you are a subscriber at 4 for 4, please be in our Discord. I imagine a lot of you are if you're a subscriber. If you're not, subscribe and get in our Discord. And get in the Discord and turn on the push notifications. You can go to roll a sign, click on the little emoji, whatever. Reach out to us individually to help you out with that. But that, again, is the best way to live your life if you have obligations or things that you can't necessarily set aside that time. We are setting aside that time to be able to do that. That way we can fire off.

And that way you can just get the notification on your phone that you need to take action and go do it. Take advantage of that time. We are setting aside that time to be able to do that. That way we can fire off. And that way you can just get the notification on your phone that you need to take action and go do it. Take advantage of that number. So that's why we have it and have it set up that way. So the discord is the best way to get advantage ahead of the market move. So do it. All right, everyone that wraps us up for week 18. Love it. Appreciate you guys hanging out with us. We will be back to do it next week for the wildcard round. So for Connor and Alex and producers Al and Ryan, we'll see you next week. Yeah! Outro Music