Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 2 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: September 18, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus introducing third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, the trio discusses their top Week 2 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 1 Prop Drop Intro 3:30 Connor Prop No. 1 4:53 Ryan Prop No. 1 6:56 Alex Prop No. 1 8:55 Connor Prop No. 2 10:28 Ryan Prop No. 2 11:40 Alex Prop No. 2 14:11 Connor Prop No. 3 16:06 Ryan Prop No. 3 17:00 Alex Prop No. 3 18:50 Connor Prop No. 4 19:58 Ryan Prop No. 4 21:06 Alex Prop No. 4 23:48 Twitter Questions 32:25 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 35:37 Week 2 Prop Drop Outro

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by WinBet. Download the WinBet app today and use promo code 444 and receive a risk-free $1,000 bet over at win cannot beat that we love free money want to take advantage of all the things the books have out there joining me as always is my partner in crime here at 444 it's connor allen what's going on buddy friday we've been waiting for this all week yeah man this is this is a great day a good day to discuss props uh books are starting to drop props a little bit earlier so we're kind of trying to mix in uh which is like great and you know it has some downfalls because it seems like draft kings is dominating the market right now uh and sb tech just in general and like

fan duel and stuff that were normally like at least competitive or have just decided like we're not even going to compete for like a day or so in terms of dropping props so it's kind of good to have props early but it's almost like they have a monopoly. So I don't know. I think it's interesting. It's exciting. And I think we're working through it here, but we have a ton of props we're going to get to today that I'm excited to break down.

Yeah, we're always trying to adjust. Again, the plan is to make sure that we are focusing on things tonight that are actionable currently at books that you can still hammer down as well. So joining us every week in this spot is our friend PropStars. It is Alex. What's going on, buddy? What's up, gentlemen? It's week two. I'm super excited. I look forward to being here all week

with you guys, chopping it up about props. It's my favorite thing to discuss. So yeah, I'm ready. Let's do it. Yeah, I think we had a profitable week one. So feel like Connor and I, at least I don't speak out of turn, but I feel like it's the case. Like we have our bearings a little bit more this week. We are home. We're not in Vegas. We're not scrambling after, you know,

playing a very warm round of golf last week. I kind of feel a little bit more plugged into the process. Yeah, that was the best. I don't need to relive that again. I'm sorry. But we're plugged in and ready to go. I felt like last week's show, all things considered, went pretty well. So we're excited.

You're watching now. We're listening now to our prop show. We also have a Wednesday night game-by-game breakdown. Those are both available on YouTube and in podcast form as well. Don't forget to subscribe. Rate and review. Reviews are going to enter you into a drawing that's going to um get you a chance to win a free four for four betting sub it's a 179 value you can get that for

free by just giving us 60 seconds of your time um and giving us a little bit of review really appreciate that um also if you don't want to take the time to get uh leave a review you just go over to four for four dot com slash plans and scoop up that betting sub, take advantage of all the projections that we have, all the really great tools. The betting sub gives you access to everything on the site. So we're excited about it. Let's get it started, Connor. We'll just start firing off.

We're going to go through. Three of us will take turns giving you bets that we love, and then we will jump back in. I think, Connor, you got a little feedback on your mic. We'll jump back in and then we'll take some listener questions that we have. Jump into the chat now if you're watching live. We absolutely love that. We've already got some from Twitter earlier. And then we will take a look at the prop betting tool that we have on the site. And we will kind of talk about what Sal loves behind the scenes. So, Connor, kick us off.

Give us your first bet. Yeah, so my first bet is David Johnson under 13.5 rushing yards. You can find that at DraftKings. I saw it actually open at 114.5, or 14.5, but I wasn't able to, you know, get onto it quick enough. And obviously with the show airing now, I think that this is still more than playable. So last week, the Texans, I mean, they both raced the Jaguars, ran the ball 41 times. Of the 41 carries, David Johnson had just three of them, which is 7%. Marking room at 26, Phillip Lindsay at eight, and Tyrod Taylor had four.

I mean, it seems like at this point, David Johnson's very clearly the third running back in terms of pecking order for early down carries and just carries in general. So now you have them playing the Cleveland Browns as 13-point underdogs. I mean, this puts a massive wrench in them trying to run the ball 40 times again and I think puts them into a negative game script most likely as two touchdown underdogs. So you're looking at a team that probably isn't going to be running the ball

very much. Our projection is actually having for half a carry. I mean, I think that he probably ends with one or two, but still at 13 and a half yards, I mean, he's got to rip off like a 10 plus yard run for that to happen. So I know that the line is tiny, but really the outs here, like I think there's a legitimate chance also that he doesn't even see a carry if they go down early. So I'm on the under there and I think that it's a solid play. Yeah, it's a solid play. Some of those backfield carries in Houston or some of the numbers this week

are so skewed because i think the usage last week was kind of wild so um i like that one to start i'm going to start with a justin jefferson prop i like jefferson um over 71 and a half receiving yards i think i saw in some spots it's maybe moved to 73 still okay with that um i think he actually has a chance to lead um the league in receiving yards this week. FanDuel actually has a little sprinkle out there that you can take advantage of that's like to lead the league in receiving yards for the week at 24-1. This is a little bit of a Kirk Cousins play. I think that there are so few edges nowadays.

I feel like the content is so much better than it used to be. I feel like there are just in general, there are so few things that are really not tackled in, you know, coverage, whether it's, you know, articles or analysis,

I just feel like in general, the average player is sharper nowadays. I think there's one thing that doesn't really get tackled so much. And that is looking at scheme fits and players versus scheme fits. And when you look over the last three years, only the Saints have played man coverage at a higher rate than the Arizona Cardinals have. During that same time frame, Kirk Cousins has dominated against man coverage in sportso Solutions, points above average per play metric, points earned per play. He is by far the top quarterback in the league against man coverage.

Also, if you look at PFF's grades last year, Jefferson was second in the league in man coverage in PFF's grade last year. It's a little bit of double counting. Obviously, he's going to do well because Cousins is doing well. But we know the secondary for Arizona is something that part of why we were attacking Julio Jones and stacking the Titans last week in DFS. The secondary is weak. They have to get pressure with their front seven.

They probably will. This is a game where the Cardinals are going to push the pace. I think the Vikings are going to have to keep up. And 71.5, 73. half, 73 and a half, anywhere in that range. I'm very comfortable on Jefferson over. So love that on DK took about an hour or two ago and minus one 15. Uh, Alex, what do you got for us, buddy? So, yeah, my first prop is, uh, sticking in that Houston backfield. I've got Mark Ingram over nine and a half rushing attempts. It's currently minus 130 at MGM.

Connor mentioned the Texans ran the ball 41 times in week one. Ingram ended up with 26 carries. Yeah, I agree there's going to be some negative game script issues here, but the Texans only have five wide receivers on their entire roster. They just lack the personnel, in my opinion, to run a high volume passing offense. I think they're going to run the ball a lot, even in negative game scripts. Their offensive philosophy seems to be just to grind clock and play in slower-paced games. I think the Texans are just trying to run the clock out on the season, honestly, and start the rebuild.

I went back and watched this game, and Ingram ended up with, I think, 86 yards and a 3.3 yards per carry, but he actually looked like he still had some juice left. A lot of his carries came against stack boxes that were on obvious running situations. When I digged a little deeper on it, I saw that Texans head coach, David Cully was the assistant head coach in Baltimore for two years.

He was a big reason why Ingram signed in the off season. In addition to having, you know, some opportunity, they have a special relationship. I read a quote where Cully referred to Ingram as an extension of himself. Bottom line, I just think Ingram looked good, and he's going to handle 10 carries on Sunday,

even if they're playing from behind. Yeah, I like that too. That one's popping in our model, but it was one of those things where it's like, do I want to? But it's jumping as a big bright red value, so I totally get it. Some of that coach speak with a guy like Cully. It feels like something I would buy into as well. So kind of in a hold it period for me, but I totally get it.

It's something that our projections like quite as well, as is Connor's next bets. And I left it for you. I got to the sheet early. But again, I know that you were on this. This kind of is slipped into a bit of a brand guy for you. But I piggyback this one right away. Absolutely love this. And obviously we had some breaking news today that made this even more actionable.

What do you got, buddy? Yeah, no, for real. I mean, Jalen Waddle now has become literally part of my brand after the whole main event debacle where we drafted him in the eighth round, like well above ADP. Drafted him over Raheem Mostert. about it was a mostard or waddle discussion i mean results over process what do you got to say i think it played itself out um yeah so i mean at this point uh i mean now full will fuller's out that's the news you alluded to uh i mean last week uh we talked with you know brett coleman in vegas about waddle basically being the focal point of the offense. And I don't think it could have been more true.

Like he literally was in motion every play. They're looking for him, you know, so many different times. He actually had a 22 percent target share last week. And that was and his stats weren't that like Gowdy because, you know, he they only threw the ball like 27, 28 times. So, like, of course, you know, he's even like a 22 percent target share, which is great. Of course, the season is probably not going to be too good in just one single game, still ended up with 60 yards and a touchdown. And so in this spot here against the Bills,

where I think they're going to have to throw a lot more, we have 5.4 receptions and 60 yards projected again. So I took the over on his, on his props here. I took over three and a half receptions, which is now up to minus 145. And we also took it at 40 originally over a four for four, but I think it's now hovering around the 45, 46 range in most spots. I'm still on the over there. I think that, you know, he is the number one option and will be schemed open in addition to just being a good player and getting open himself. So that combination is something that I really like. And at three and

a half receptions, I think it's a bit too low. Yeah, absolutely love that one. My next one is Chris Carson. I'm taking over on Carson at 16 and a half receiving yards. This is out there in multiple spots. The minus 115 I got earlier today is at DraftKings. I believe that's still sitting out there. There's really no one left. I mean, again, we have another Rashad Penny injury.

Last week, DJ Dallas sprinkled in for an entire snap. And Carson ran 19 routes last week, ran a route on 64% of the dropbacks. Combined, Penny and Dallas ran five. So even if Dallas slides into more of a clear third down roll, it just doesn't seem like they really want Penny to leave the field. Again, it's 16 and a half. He doesn't have to do that on volume. Again, with running a route on 60 plus percent of the snaps, you can get there in one or two catches.

I feel pretty confident about this against a really bad Tennessee defense that I don't expect to be good all season. I don't think that that was fluky last week. I think that was going to be a problem. We saw Chase Edmonds really kind of dominate in the air against them last week too. Again, I feel like that's a pretty easy one and a game that I think is going to be

probably up in pace with a lot of points as well. Give me Carson over 16 and a half receiving yards. Alex, what is next with you, buddy? I like that prop, Ryan. I want to also point out that I'm on Waddle's yards and reception as well. I love both those props.

Love it. Let's ride. I am a little nervous, though. One of my favorite futures was Fuller under 875 yards. So I'm worried about not getting on the field. Yeah, he might not play. Yeah, I'm a little nervous. And, yeah, initially I was like, oh, sweet, we got two games.

But after hearing, like, Fuller say that, like, he doesn't even know if he's going to return, I'm sweating out a little nervous. And yeah, initially I was like, Oh sweet. We got two games, but after hearing like Flores say that like he doesn't even know if he's going to return, I'm sweating out a little bit, but yeah. So my next one sticking with electric rookie wide receivers is Devante Smith over three and a half catches. I was super impressed week one seeing the Raymond Heisman winner. I, I feel like the Eagles, you know, traded up for him. I saw why he had, I think, eight targets. He turned into six catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. It was a game the Eagles were up the

whole game. He operated as the clear number one receiver in Philly. He displayed great chemistry with his former college teammate, Jalen Hurts. I expect the volume to be there again against a 49ers pass defense that will be without Jason Ferret, suffered an ACL tear in week one I could also see some game script working on in our favor with the Eagles being three and a half point dogs to the 49ers I could see them having to throw the ball a lot more to keep up so yeah I like Devante Smith over three and a half catches and I think I missed the price it is currently at minus 145 so a little bit juicy but yeah I like is to go over this total. That's a great bet. I think we have an objective for actually 4.8 receptions for 60-something yards, so

I think that's spot on, man. Yeah, it's juicy, but it's not too juicy to hit. It's a good number. I like that game total to go over. Yeah, I think that Jason Verrett injury is massive, and the Eagles offensive line is healthy if they're able to protect Hurts, who they did a good job scheming him like low ADOT, high expected completion throws, which is very different than what they did last year

where they basically just let him throw deep down the field or tuck and run. And he was by far the worst in the league at completion percentage over expectation because he was just de-gaffing at 30 yards down the field or running. So yeah, I like seeing them do those things with, with Jalen Rager and Devonta Smith.

Like it a lot. Connor, your next bet. This is another one. Like you were on this early and these are way, these are off. These are, I don't understand.

I think you're, you're going to go one way, but I think the yards are another way too. What's your next bet? Yeah, so I took Jonathan Taylor over two and a half receptions. You're able to still find this at Plus Money at William Hill and some other shops. I think even DK, you're able to find this still at Plus Money. So Taylor last week saw eight targets from Wentz, while Hines saw nine. But, I mean, Taylor only ran four fewer routes, and he turned that into 60 receiving yards.

And they played most of the game from behind, but Wentz still only threw the ball 38 times. So all things considered, I think that, you know, that's not too extreme considering they were literally playing from behind the entire game. So, you know, Taylor's target share is something that I think that could be consistent from week to week. They have essentially no threats to go deep outside of Michael Pittman,

who really doesn't necessarily profile as a deep threat. And this offense is the way it's functioning. Like right now we're going to see a ton of dump offs of the running backs. And Wentz was constantly under pressure. And now they're going to be square up against the Rams. A lot of their offensive line is banged up. They're four point underdogs. And I think Taylor's also,

you know, explosive enough that you can also get on as receiving yards. I think it opened at 12 and a half. We hit that, but now it's a 16 and a half. I'm still interested in putting like a half unit on that. Probably if you're late to the game, but two and a half receptions,

I think for me is, is easy money as I also, I guess that I also expect the Rams to win this game and to probably cover and kind of at least keep it in neutral game script enough to the point where the Colts are throwing. So, yeah, I'm on the over there. Two and a half receptions, a plus 115. Yeah, I love it.

I love the receiving yards over. I think it is still way too low being in the teens. Yeah, if he's going to run even somewhere in the vicinity of the same amount of routes that Naheem Hines is, that's just a massive, massive number. And again, like you said, you're not going to run into the teeth of that Rams defense. So absolutely love it. Next for me is kind of building on what I was talking about with Alex's bets. I'm taking over on Miles Sanders at 18.5 receiving yards.

He's topped his number in every Jalen Hurts start, and pretty comfortably too. He's actually been pretty good on the ground as well. Kenny Gainwell mixed in on passing downs a bit last week and did well. But again, 18.5 is not a big ask here. Again, in a situation where if they're trying to get the ball out of Hertz's hand quickly and avoid that pass rush from the Niners, I think getting the ball out quickly to the running backs makes a ton of sense.

So I imagine both are in play. But again, we're going to see more snaps in a significant way for Sanders than we are for Gainwell. So I like that quite a bit. I think we'll see some screens there. 18 and a half is very attainable and flat juice. It's a minus one 14 on FanDuel. So absolutely love that.

And kind of building on some of the points that Alex had there. So Alex, next one for you. Yeah. So my next one is another juicy one that I just absolutely love though. It's Hunter Renfro over three and a half catches. It was at minus one 45. The last I checked before we came on together,

Renfro served as the security blanket for Derek Carr. Since he got drafted out of Clemson, he had a solid debut to the season, reeled in six catches from his nine targets. He was second on the Raiders and targets behind Waller. Pittsburgh's defense loves to blitz as a result, opposing quarterbacks are forced to get rid of the ball quickly. We saw week one with Josh Allen having to throw a ton, very shallow passes as well, very low.

ADOT, the Steelers front seven, was just in his grill all day. Yeah, I think he had one completion over 20 yards despite tossing 51 pass attempts. Cole Beasley ended up with 13 targets. Renfro and Beasley have similar A dots. Yeah, they kind of work in a similar role in the offense. The Steelers' defense was also really great last year covering opposing tight ends. I think they gave up the second fewest yards to the position.

I expect a ton of defensive attention to go towards Darren Waller. And, yeah, I think Renfro is going to benefit a lot. So I think he's a lock to catch at least four passes. Love it. I like the breakdown there too. Darren Waller, the best player John Gruden's ever coached. So, Connor, have you been working on the Gruden? Or what do you got, buddy?

I haven't worked on the Gruden. I didn't retweet that clip for a reason. I was hoping that that would get edited out, but instead Sal turned it into a full-on bit and tweeted it out. And I was slightly embarrassed. I actually rewatched it, and I think that it wasn't good, but it wasn't as bad as I remember. I was pretty horrified after.

And so, yeah, but I'll work on it. I'll get back to it. I do like that run it. Work on it. I do like that run for a bet, though. All right. So for me, yeah, my last bet here, I took David Montgomery under two and a half receptions. If we kind of look at how last week turned out, last season we had, you know, Tariq Cohen go down and then Montgomery basically soaked up all of the pass catching work that Tariq Cohen left behind. Now this season, Damian Williams came over and they both ran about the same amount of routes.

It was like 20 routes each in the passing game. So, you know, essentially Montgomery's went back to the role that he played when Cohen was healthy. And I don't think that's being talked about enough because he looked really good running the ball. And like he was he looks like a legit good player now, which, you know, I've always thought he was a good player, you know, bowing and hat tipping,

patting myself on the back there. But, you know, I think he has gotten better. He's gotten faster. I mean, that's like literally been tracked. But in this specific instance,

I just don't think the volume is going to be there. I mean, we haven't projected for, you know, a little bit less. We haven't projected for around two receptions, but I think there's a good chance that he only sees two to three targets, has to catch all of them.

And so in this specific game, I think that it's more than likely not, especially at plus money, which is what you're getting. DeAndre here is a good play. I like it. My last one is Javante Williams over 35 and a half rushing yards. I mean, we're already there. He is already out snapping and out touching Melvin Gordon. I know Melvin Gordon had the splash play last week with the big 80 yard touchdown run, but he's not

going away. But 35 and a half is not a high bar to cross here against the Jags defense that was absolutely dominated by the likes of Mark Ingram last weekend. So I think that he can top 35.5 on 8 to 10 carries. We haven't projected for 14. So I feel pretty confident here in what I expect to be positive game scripts that they're going to want to control the ball late. They played really slow late and ran it when they got up, and I imagine they do the same here. So Javante over 35.5 is a guy that I think projects more of the splash play guy anyway.

I think he's more likely to get that big run. So I think he is a very safe bet at this number. I like his over on his carries as well. That's got juiced up a little bit, so I'm leaning on the over on the yards because that's still pretty flat out there. So Alex, take us home. Yeah, I absolutely love that play, by the way, Ryan. I think that's a great one.

Confirmation bias. My final play is C-Mac Christian McCaffrey over 44 and a half receiving yards. C-Mac looked back to his 2019 dominant form, combining for nearly 200 rushing and receiving yards in week one. I think he finished with 89 receiving yards, hauled in nine of his targets for nine catches. He'll face a Saints defense who has completely shut, or excuse me, who completely shut down Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones in week one.

They look great. The Saints had some success. The Saints have also had historical success containing McCaffrey on the ground. I think he's held them to a 3.1 career yard per carry average, over 193 totes in six games played. However, McCaffrey has done really well and done a lot of the damage through the air, having gone over this total in four of the six games that he's faced New Orleans.

He's averaged around 60 receiving yards per game versus the Saints. One of those games was in Week 17 when he played a handful of snaps. Yeah, so I think the Saints defense is just really good, super legit. I think Sam Darnold's going to have to be forced to get rid of the ball quickly and lean on a security blanket, who just happens to be the best pass catching back in the NFL. I think it also benefits McCaffrey that the Panthers don't really have a quality short area target tight end. They don't really have a slot receiver who, you know, handles a lot of volume. So I think McCaffrey is just going to continue to run a lot of high percentage routes. And, yeah, I think he's a great bet to go over 44 and a half receiving yards.

I wrote up three props on the site today, three that I did not talk about today. One of them, Christian McCaffrey over 44 receiving yards. I think he's an absolute great play. I think he's 2019. Obviously, 2020 was a rough year. We really don't count it. He went over it like 70, like seven straight games. Two of those were against the Saints.

I think that this number is like 15 to 20 yards too low. yeah we projected for like 56 57 20 yeah which even that is yeah it feels low so absolutely absolutely love it alex so it could be a good points bet opportunity you can go back to the well um yeah a little more spicy than the daniel jones points bet but uh that works last night and maybe you just want to be aggressive because the, the bankroll looks nice all of a sudden over on, on points bet. So, but again,

take advantage of the wind numbers. See what a wind has out there and download that app using our promo code four for four. So now we're going to move on to a little bit more of an interactive point. We did ask for some questions and we appreciated those on Twitter earlier today. You can follow the show. As you can see here in the corner at move the line nfl

or you can shoot any of us questions as well um let's see what we got here we had a couple questions uh hayden hurst uh 22 and a half receiving yards uh from uh adam rick camp um guys any thoughts here connor i'll start with you. Yeah, I guess for me, this one is right around our number. We haven't projected 23. He had four for 28 last week, but they were mostly dump outs. His average depth of target was 2.5 yards. So they were basically just, it seemed like whenever they were in trouble, Matt Reynolds was dumping it off. And obviously, he's the second tight end option technically. But I think that for me it's just a stay away. But, you know, if I had to lean, I would say lean over, I guess.

But, you know, it's really like the margin is thin on that, I think. Yeah. Negative game script. I get why you would think that. Alex, any thoughts on that one? Yeah, I agree with everything Connor said. I know the Falcons ran a lot of 12 personnel last week. So he was on the field a good amount more than I anticipated him being. He's likely to be on the field a bunch versus the Bucs.

So, yeah, if I were to choose, I'd lean over as well. But I think the line's pretty fairly accurate, so not something I would go out of my way to play. But if I were to choose, I'd lean over. We've got one on Big Mike Will as well, 58.5 receiving yards. I know Alex tackled this one in the moment because he's, you know, just serving his people. Respect to Connor.

Do you have thoughts on Big Mike Will? Obviously, you know, 54.5, 55 is the total here. We're expecting, you know, a shootout here. And Mike Will was very much involved in kind of a different way last week too. It wasn't just the deeper shots downfield. He had a little bit more of a diverse target tree. What do you think about 58.5? Yeah, I'll actually let Alex tackle this one since he basically wrote it up

and demolished most of the value on it. But I think that it's a good bet. I don't know. I still thought we have 70 yards projected back and forth game. Like you said, I'm kind of in on it. Maybe double that I don't think about it. Yeah, I think it's solid as well. I was personally just hoping for a lower number, I think,

which is why I didn't end up jumping on it. Yeah, I was really curious what his number was going to open up after week one. It was super promising performance versus the Redskins. He had a huge target share. One thing I mentioned when I responded on Twitter was that Austin Eckler did not receive a single target, which, you know, yeah, it's pretty freaky, obviously, considering, you know, his role in the offense and his target share, his historical target share. So I'm curious to see, you know, if Eckler's going to be more involved,

but obviously it's a great matchup versus Dallas. Mike Williams looked great. The Chargers need someone, a second-right receiver, to step up in that offense. There's a role for him there to be really productive. I'm expecting him to have finally a breakout season. So, yeah, I like it. I would go over.

Interesting. One point I want to make, too, is so I would lean over. I think it's interesting to look at how Dallas used Trayvon Diggs, who's really the only noteworthy cornerback in the secondary for Dallas. And they locked him up on Mike Evans in week one against Tampa. He was basically the only one on the box that didn't do anything last week. You know, we really, Godwin went off and, you know, Antonio Brown went off. Even the tight ends got involved.

So do they do that again? Is Trayvon Diggs that dude where he can, you know, do that? And I think those are questions that are worth asking. That would make me only a little hesitant, but again, like I'm more apt to believe that the Chargers don't have that deep of a tree to go to, that Tampa hat, and they'd have to force things a little bit more,

probably to Mike Will. I'm also not necessarily a buyer, just because Trayvon Diggs is the best corner on the Cowboys doesn't necessarily mean that he is an elite corner that can shut down someone like Mike Williams. So I would lean over. It's not one that I would play. With alex i kind of want a little bit softer line before jumping into it how about james robinson um alex to start with you here we got a combined rushing receiving number at 60 and a half not really involved last week on the grounds he handled

what they had to give as far as passing game work. But again, he did not go to Ohio State University, so he was not super featured in carries. But what are your thoughts on 60 and a half? Yeah, I think it's okay. I think I recall that Hyde primarily got most of his work in the last two series of the game. So I think in a negative game script or one where they're not – one where they're not – excuse me.

Yeah, I think in a different game script he could play more. I still think it's his backfield. I still think that he's going to get more touches than Hyde ultimately. So, yeah, I'm staying away, but if I were to choose again, I would probably lean over here. But yeah, I still want to kind of see how the backfield unravels this week. Any thoughts there, Connor? Yeah, I think he's a good long-term play.

But for me in this one, I mean, we actually haven't projected under for the rushing yards and over for the receiving yards, I think technically, but it's very marginally on both. So I think the number is about right. I think he's the better yards, I think, technically, but it's very marginally on both. So I think the number is about right. You know, I think he's the better talent, but unfortunately, you know, I don't think that we can assume rational coaching, especially after we saw in week one from the Jaguars, because that was brutal.

So, yeah, for me, it's a stay away until I think we have a little bit more definitive, you know, definition of his role and, I guess, just the offense as a whole because I have no idea what to expect, especially against a Denver defense, which looked stellar last week. I think they're legit, legit. Yeah, I mean, that same Giants team just went on and put up 29 on the Washington football team, which is supposed to have a good defense.

Yeah. Then Noah Fantz was our last Twitter question. 45.5 receiving yards. Do you guys have any thoughts on that one? I'll start with you, Alex. have a good defense so yeah um then no offense uh it was our last twitter question 45 and a half receiving yards you guys have any thoughts on that one i'll start with you alex yeah i like this uh quite a bit um again judy played for most of the game so we didn't get to see um a very clear picture on what it's going to look like without judy there's a lot of options there um you obviously got kj hamler um courtland sutland think, only had one target or one catch in the game, so I could see his role expanding.

He may be still recovering from the ACL. But, yeah, I thought Fant looked really good. He looked healthy. You know, he was dealing with a troublesome ankle all last year. Yeah, he looked finally healthy. Yeah, I think I like this a decent amount. I would lean over here. I think it's right around where it should be. But, yeah, I think I like this a decent amount. I would lean over here. I think it's right around where it should be.

But, yeah, I like it. Again, with Judy out, it could be a little bit more mean in the bone for the rest of the Broncos pass catchers. Connor, do you have any thoughts on Fant? Not too much. I think that the line is about right. We have five for 52 projected.

So, I mean, again, I lean over, but I do think that the line is about right. So I'm probably not rushing to take it here. Yeah yeah let's take one more from the chat before we go Dalton Cates Dalton good questions uh we are smashing um Nico Collins overs technically um we have yeah uh we have well it's juiced up three and a half is our projection on his receptions um it's minus 149 over at william hill and we have him at just a shade under 40 receiving yards and the number there is uh 19 and a half so like those are massive bright green values in our player prop tool so yeah i don't know i'm just like but he only saw like three targets and you know like i don't know. I'm just like – but he only saw like three targets. And, you know, like I don't know. Maybe – I think that maybe there's just a lot less definition to the role

behind Cook's roles, you know. And so that, you know, whatever was slotted into the projections, you know, I think it's a little bit more fluid in terms of who that guy is. Sure. I think with the juice – I mean, I probably lean over still. I think it's still a good bet. But I think some of these ancillary guys we've got to be careful about with the juice, I mean, I probably lean over still. I think it's still a good bet, but I think some of these ancillary guys we got to be careful about with, with the projection. So I do like the tool and I do think that, that, you know,

it's right, but I'm a little bit cautious of it. This is what happens. Sometimes you, you know, you got to check the tool and make sure you don't go jumping headfirst into a little Jordan Humphries numbers early in the week. Like I almost did. I was like, wait a second, this does not make sense. Reached out to find out that there's something off with the tool and the numbers and felt better about

not firing blindly into it. At this point, the Nico Collins number feels it's correct as far as the projection goes. It doesn't mean that that's what he's going to do, but our number is actually correct. Speaking of the tool, we are going to take a look at it. Sal is going to bring up a prop that he was interested in and wanted to get our take in.

Also gives you, if you're watching live, a sense of what the tool is, what it looks like, and how you can utilize it. So let's see what the player prop tool bet of the week is here. What you got for us today, Sal? That's hilarious. I didn't know you were doing that. Absolutely love it. CPAT. Oh, man. CPAT over 10.5 receiving yards. This is minus 110 on DraftKings.

Our projection comfortably over basically doubled. We have him projected for just a shade under 21 yards. I mean, he was kind of the next guy in the backfield last week for the Falcons. We, again, know that they will be in negative game scripts as they are likely to get absolutely curb stomped by the buccaneers um connor initial thoughts c-pat uh receiving yards i mean i guess it's a little bit short um you're making you're throwing me off here this is this is a hilarious one i mean you saw two targets last week uh went two for 13 like you said i mean he was used more than i thought he played 33 percent of the snaps uh so i mean i guess that's good um and i think that he he looks about the same as

mike davis you know in terms of like skill wise so i think that that that situation at this point is probably pretty fluid so yeah i mean negative game script i can get on board with it alex what are your reactions here yeah i think it looks solid. I'm personally fading Mike Davis' rush attempts this week. I thought Patterson ran the ball more effectively than Mike Davis did. I would also say, you know, when you're playing Tampa Bay, not only obviously we all know they just totally clamp and shut down the run, but teams don't even run a lot against them. Like they come in with a game plan where you just don't see a lot of rushing attempts so yeah i could see um patterson getting some work

in the passing game and yeah i think this is solid yeah these are the ones that are so dicey where like our over under percentage is like just through the roof but because we're dealing with such a low number it's really hard to not uh not be caught off guard because this can you can literally get volatility yeah um yeah so this is uh this is an interesting one i don't hate it i would like to see some of how we've kind of taken that spot on whether it was an eagle collins pick a couple minutes ago or um some of the other ones we kind of want to see how the texans backfield we want to see how these things kind of emerge a little bit before taking super hard stances so this is one of those for me where i want to see a little bit is is c-bat the clear guy behind davis um they start

to use him with more of a clearly defined role um otherwise um sal he cashed last week uh he was on matt ryan under passing yards that was the bet of the week here in the tool and um cash comfortably as they wave the white flag in the tool and cash comfortably as they wave the white flag in the fourth quarter and just, you know, hand the ball off over and over again and went home with a big L. So we'll see if Sal and the tool can go to, you know,

this week. So good stuff, fellas. That wraps us up. So for Connor and Alex, I'm Ryan. Don't forget to subscribe. We'll be here on Wednesday to do it all again for week three.

And thanks for listening. And thanks for listening. you Thank you.