Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 3 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: September 25, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus introducing third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, the trio discusses their top Week 3 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000).  👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools  👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans Follow 4for4 on Twitter  👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football Follow Move the Line on Twitter  👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter  👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL Follow Ryan on Twitter  👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Follow Alex on Twitter  👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz Visit our Website  👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/ Join our Discord  👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4 Subscribe to our YouTube Channel  👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw 4for4 Betting Picks  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX 4for4 Player Prop Tool  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx 4for4 Prop Stat Explorer  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u #fantasyfootball #sportsbetting #props ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 3 Prop Drop Intro 3:17 Connor Prop No. 1 4:33 Ryan Prop No. 1 6:07 Alex Prop No. 1 7:57 Connor Prop No. 2 9:14 Ryan Prop No. 2 11:51 Alex Prop No. 2 13:14 Connor Prop No. 3 14:19 Ryan Prop No. 3 15:49 Alex Prop No. 3 18:05 Connor Prop No. 4 19:19 Ryan Prop No. 4 20:25 Alex Prop No. 4 23:28 Twitter Questions 41:00 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 43:14 Week 3 Prop Drop Outro

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show. I'm Ryan Noonan, brought to you here by our friends over at WinBet. Download the Win app today, enter that promo code 444, and receive a risk-free $1,000 bet. Joining me as always, Connor Allen. Connor, what's going on, buddy? Not much. Pumped for another week of props here. The market, they started releasing them a little bit later this week. I was kind of excited, you know, and I've talked about this with you a little bit offline here but the release of these props uh especially from draft kings has been kind of weird and i think it's actually been destroying the

value a little bit because before on fridays they used to like release a bunch and then they would release a bunch more on saturdays now um they're releasing some on wednesdays for sunday games then some on thursdays and like it's a lot easier to find value, I think, but then it shapes the market quicker. So now at this point, they're releasing a little bit later. I hope they keep pushing more towards Thursday even, and kind of condensing everything.

So there's a lot more value all at once. And those that are able to, you know, find value, it doesn't like, it doesn't shape the market as quickly. So that's my hope. Will it happen?

No idea. Yeah. It's been, it's been frustrating. We actually designed the entire premise of the show to be on friday afternoon as the props come out and here we are they're starting to come out you know wednesday morning it's it's bizarre but uh also joining us as always in this spot is our buddy of prop stars alex s nick what's going on alex what's up gentlemen

i'm super excited i look forward to this show all week. Props is my specialty. So yeah, I'm ready to chop it up. Hopefully we have another big week and yeah, let's get down to business. Good to what you do. Tweet that out. Send it out. Let's get our people in here. Let's get them in the chat. Let's get them firing off some questions.

We want this to be a little bit more of a user participation show as well. At the end, we're going to fire off four of our favorite props. And then we also want to get a feel for what are you betting other things out there in the marketplace that you're considering or that you've already bet and you want to get our sense on it and we can help you kind of design your card as we head into the weekend this is again prop show we also do a wednesday night game by game preview those are both available in podcast form along with our youtube page go ahead and take the time, subscribe, leave a review. If you have time, we really appreciate that.

Again, it helps us keep the lights on here, lets other people find us. And then in the comment section, again, like I said, let us know what you're thinking. What do you like this week? And then get in there a little bit early and let us know what you want us to talk about because we want to have a little bit more interaction. It's always awesome. We also want to let you know about our promo this week over at 444.com slash plans. You can scoop up our betting sub using the promo code Kelsey87. It's going to get you 25% off for new subscribers or if you're

upgrading as well, 25% off and a 444 t-shirt. So take advantage. That's going to run through Sunday. So let's just jump right into it, Connor. I know we've got a pretty full card in our Discord chat. But again, we want to keep us fresh. If you are a subscriber already, we want to try to get you some fresh stuff as much as we can. But I know stuff's been rolling in this afternoon. What's your first one? Yeah, so this one is still definitely on the board.

I like Tony Poll uh over 14 and a half receiving yards uh i mean this line to me i think is a little bit puzzling so in his first two games this season he has 29 and 31 on three and four targets uh his usage this year is just like way up like he's being i know he's still only playing 30 of the snaps but when he's on the field he's being used frequently he's shown nothing but being an explosive player uh and in this spot particularly we haven't projected for 24 receiving yards so at 14 i think felt like it was way too low i mean you're looking at one long catch or you know maybe even two to three catches and i think that his usage actually probably keeps continuing to grow at least in the receiving game maybe not in the

early downs he's not going to supplant zeke you know i think that that's a little bit of a fantasy but in the receiving game and kind of being used simultaneously i like the over there a lot particularly here i like it i feel like all of his props are a little bit off they're a little short and maybe we're getting ahead of ourselves from a usage standpoint but like some of the coach speed that came out of there feels encouraging too like they want to start to get him involved a little bit more and he seems like he's earned it and in this instance i think it makes a lot of sense because where it seems like he has the clearest path to carve out more of a consistent role would probably be on passing downs so i think

this number is a little short i tailed you on that one as well um my first bet here is tom brady uh taking the goat over two and a half touchdown passes this for some reason is plus money which i think is is. I know touchdown props are hard. So I understand two and a half, we're asking for three touchdowns here to hit, but the Bucs are passing a ton, 75% in neutral situations, which is wildly high, like league average is 58%. So you'd love to see that. And then even more in the red zone, whereas league average inside the red zone is about 55%. They're also right around 75% in the red zone too. They're really not even messing with any of the backs there. I don't know that I buy into the narrative

that they're trying to drum up the record here per se, but I think that they know that put the decision in their hands of their best decision maker, taking advantage of their best weapons, which again, even if it's not Antonio Brown this week, you're still with this rejuvenated Gronk. I don't know what's going on there. But with Godwin and Evans, like, that's their best bet. And let Brady make decisions and find ways to take care of the ball and throw for touchdowns.

So two and a half in a game with a 55-point total where I'm leaning Bucs and I'm leaning over on the Bucs team total makes all the sense. Give me that one. Did Gronk get 10 years younger or something in the offseason? Is he doing roids or something? CBD, bro. CBD. Yeah, he's mainline CBD and he's...

It's like vintage Gronk right now. I know. It is awesome. Yeah. A lot of yoga. Yeah, he's crushing, man. It's been, it's been wild to see. So, uh, Alex, what do you got, buddy? Yeah. So my first prop gentlemen is Saquon over 61 and a half rushing yards. I saw this at minus one 15 on MGM. Um, I've been really apprehensive regarding Saquon props all season. I've avoided them. I actually played his under in the first week, but yeah, he's finally off of the injury report. Didn't play great last

week versus the Washington football team, but he did have that 140 plus yard carry. To me, he looks like close enough to where I'm comfortable with this number to being vintage Saquon or pre-injury Saquon. He had 10 days off. They basically had a mini bye week. Love the fact that he had 13 carries week two, 10 carries week one. I'm expecting somewhere in the 15, 18 carry range. He gets to play an absolutely dismal, horrendous Falcon defense. That is the perfect spot to give him a healthy workload. Let him do his thing um yeah i

think this is a low number for him i think you could rip it off in one play obviously i think they're going to make him the focal point of the game plan so yeah i love saquon this weekend versus the falcons at over 61 and a half rushing yards you gotta love to see that connor you've been chasing some uh some season-long prop bets with, uh, Saquon. So, yeah, I love it. I was looking at that number for a while there. I mean, last week he played, uh, it was a 58 of 69 snaps. So they're, they brought the, the usages coming back. And I think that, you know, I mean, we talked about this, but like every snap that Saquon's not on the field is a borderline fireable offense. And for at this point, uh, with, you know, the giants actually struggling, uh, I mean, he needs to be playing pretty much every snap.

And he looks good. Like you said, I think that he's he's close enough back to the point where he should be good. And so, yeah, 60 is probably a little bit short. I was looking at that heavy. I think I might play a little like half unit on it, too, because I do like that. What's your next one, Connor? So we will go into that. This one's actually a little bit interesting here. So James Connor under three and a half receiving yards. I mean, it seems ridiculous. But if you kind of dive into the numbers here, he has zero targets through two games. And he's just run seven routes total in those two games combined.

Seven routes. So, I mean, this is more of like a does he catch a pass type of bet rather than like the three and a half yards. But you have multiple layers to this. Like I don't even think he's going to see a target. He doesn't even have a target through through two weeks if he does see a target is he going to catch that target if he does catch the target is he going to get four yards you know like that's like there's multiple things like he could easily catch like a little swing pass and tackle behind the line of scrimmage because he's a little bit dusty you know like there's a lot of

different layers to that bet and so the under there i like a good bit it opened at five and a half missed that it's still a three and a half though. It opened at 5.5, missed that. It's still a 3.5, though, on DraftKings, minus 110. So I like that. I mean, basically, I just don't think he's going to catch a pass or even see a target. So I like the under there a lot. Yeah, it really is kind of a binary one. Alex, you have something to add there too?

Yeah, I love that prop as well. I expect Chase Edmonds to continue getting the lion's share of the workload there. He looks a lot better. He's obviously a much better third down back and pass catching back than Connor. Yeah, he's been super productive. I think they're going to continue to ride him and expand his role a little bit.

So yeah, that's a great play. Love it. My next one is Allen Robinson. I hit earlier in our Discord over on his four and a half receptions. We have it projected at six. I also think the number is light on his four and a half receptions uh we have it projected at six i also think the number is light on his receiving yards we have 50 uh numbers 59 and a half our projection is closer to 81 uh yeah i get the little trepidation as far as how it relates to justin

fields and him being maybe a little bit of an unknown commodity we know that he's going to bring a layer of athleticism in the position to be able to extend plays and do all sorts of those things that can help buy time. But I don't necessarily think that the Browns secondary is as poor as they performed so far, but through two weeks, their 31st in EPA per dropback allowed. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is going to have a massive impact, but they were pretty awful, especially the first half with Tyron Taylor last week. It allowed them to do really whatever they wanted. Again, I think there's some positive regression there,

but again, it's obviously not an elite back half. The front half of that defense is better than it is, but when you look at this number, he's topped this. Robinson has. He's topped 59.5%, 60%, 60 67 of the time in the last 18 games um kind of coming off of a dud so a little bit buying low after an air ball against the bangles but i think buying into a rob again if you think of anything like i know a lot of times we think of rookie quarterbacks and like maybe they look for their tight ends they're going to want to dump the

ball off to you know easier spots like you would think his first read hopefully would be their best player um so you know i feel like robinson catching five six balls here for over 60 yards is well within the range of outcomes for him today and or this weekend so like that a lot like both of those same game parlay that bad boy if you can somehow right if you want to get a little full dgen if you can on i i feel like that there's like some good there's definitely some games or some way to play that because i think fields is like really volatile you know like i think there's there's some ways to play it like just to the extremes like all of the unders like alt unders like combined or like all of the alt overs i just you know i don't know what we're gonna see i have no idea um but i think that he's an intriguing talent in a lot of ways. So I think it could be – I think that's probably how I'll play some of the actions,

just like find some exotic ways to bet on him either crushing or just like being way below expectation. Yeah. No, there's some volatility to it for sure. But it feels when we have those projections so strong, I feel pretty confident in him getting there. I love the four and a half. I feel like he's going to catch five balls pretty confidently with any sort of a dots i'd imagine

he should be able to to carry that home so all right alex what you got next buddy yeah so my next one guys is lavisca chennault over four and a half catches i last saw this at minus 138 at fanduel a little bit of a similar uh process or idea here regarding buying low like you were mentioning with a Rob Ryan he had a um poor performance last week versus in my opinion probably the best or one of the best secondaries in the league in Denver um he did still end up with seven targets had two catches I don't think he even mustered I think he was two receiving yards but yeah it was a really poor performance coming off of a great week one where he had 10 targets, I think he turned that into seven catches, I believe.

Yeah, I'm expecting a big bounce pack performance. I think the opponent obviously is really friendly. They're playing the Cardinals. This projects to probably be the fastest paced game on the slate on Sunday. I expect a ton of throwing on both sides. I expect Chenault to continue running high percentage routes and continue to kind of serve as a safety blanket for Trevor Lawrence. So, yeah, I like him to go over four and a half catches,

even though it's a bit juicy. I think he's a great bet to go over. I like it, too. I like the overnight game. The Jags are playing at the league's fastest pace right now. They don't have many situation-neutral snaps because they basically have been getting blown out all season. But you like to see that they're at least playing fast when they're getting boat raced every week.

So I think there's going to be a lot of plays in that game. And, you know, counting stats like that, I think, make a lot of sense. So good call there. Connor, next one. I think this one might still be popping as, if not our best or one of our best plays in the model. Yeah, I don't think it's the best but it was one of the best so it's alan lazard under 27 and a half receiving yards um we haven't projected for 1.2 receptions and 10 receiving yards uh fourth among packers wide receivers actually behind adams

cobb and mbs so last week you didn't see a single target on 27 past temps from rogers he was still playing but i mean even the week prior he went two for 16 on four targets. He's averaging 9.2 yards per target over his career. So, I mean, he would need a relatively efficient outing on three to four targets at his career average to hit the over there. And so, I mean, given everything here, I know that the 49er secondary is a little bit weak, but just given his role, and I think that Cobb continues to ascend, I think the Rogers and him start to get a little bit more rapport, get back into their groove, and that Lazard kind of takes a backseat to him. And kind of with how that's going, I like the under there.

I mean, it opened to like 30, still at 27 and a half. I'd probably consider playing it down to like 25 and a half, to be honest. Yeah, good call there. Next one for me is DeAndre Swift, over 29.5 receiving yards, minus 114 over on FanDuel. I took this earlier in the week at 31.5. Now there's 29.5, so I think it's worth mentioning again. Comfortably topped his number in both starts so far this season.

He's averaging six catches on eight targets and 53 receiving yards through the first two weeks. Again, negative game script expected there. They're eight-point dogs at home. Again, really no threats on the outside. So it's been a lot of running backs and tight ends there. And I think that probably continues here against Baltimore. And yeah, I think just kind of the easiest way to get the ball out of Goff's hands

and to be safe is to get it into Swift. And he has obvious after-the-catch skills as a running back to be able to hit get it into swift and he has obvious after the catch skills as a running back to be able to hit this 29 and a half pretty easily so um our projection is in the mid 40s here so confident in swift getting a pretty nice workload i wish that like there was a clear cut like the lineage between how swift and jamal are being used they're just overlapping but like swift is getting like 65 of of what you know is out there so i still think that he's he's the guy to go to i mean this has been the this is the exact same thing as we saw in green bay it's literally he just does he can do everything that swift does

except the worst for sure and like same thing what he did with aaron jones he can catch the ball you know he can run the ball fine he's not bad he just like doesn't do anything particularly well outside of make jokes in a press conference. That's it. Yeah, he's good at that, though. Again, great clubhouse guy. It matters, yeah. It matters.

Alex, what's next, bud? Yeah, so my next one, guys, is Najee Harris, under 68 and a half rushing yards. I've been fading Najee the first two weeks of the season. I'm going to continue to, in spite of Deontay Johnson not playing on Sunday. He has had just a terrible start to the season. In addition to Pittsburgh's offensive line has performed about as poorly as advertised through two games. Harris has 83 rushing yards on 26 attempts, good for a 3.2 yards per carry.

In addition to the line struggling to open up holes, his performance has also left a lot to be desired. He currently ranks 35th out of 36 running backs who qualify in defense-adjusted yards above replacement, which compares the performance of each player in terms of DVOA to a replacement-level baseline, rather than the league average for that position. That translates into total yardage. So yeah, basically, put into layman's terms, outside of the offensive line, he's not playing well. He looks slow to me.

On the other side of the ball, the Bengals have actually been a pleasant surprise. They held both Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery to identical stat lines of 20 carries for 61 yards. I expect this game to be low-scoring, ugly. And, yeah, I just don't think many holes are going to open up for harris ben looks washed i just think the line's not going to push anyone around and yeah i think he's going to have a hard time going over even an event where they increase his workload if you think that ben's going to

throw the ball left i just have not seen it and yeah i'm going to fade him i like it uh it's tough when you're not coming off the field and there really isn't any competition there. But, yeah, they've been kind of victims of that offensive line so far. So it'll be interesting to see kind of how that evolves and how injured is Ben because Ben does this every year. Like, he is such a drama queen. Like, we always have to know about every bump and bruise that Ben has.

And, like, it's just's always so serious and he's always questionable to play like he's i make a dated reference like he's always going for the willis reed thing like he wants to be the hero that comes out and just saves the day sorry oh i digress i'm not a not a huge steelers or ben backer but uh it's just yeah it's tired the packers or the the steelers fans in my life are tired of this as well so just put that out there um connor where do you get next one uh so i'm gonna go with uh alvin camara under 15 and a half carries um and so in this particular spot uh like the line i just don't think reflects kind of his historical uh you know carries wise he had 20 carries in week one so i think that's kind of why the line is so high, and they obviously got rid of Latavius Murray.

But if you go back to last season, he's gone under this number in 14 of his 17 games, 82%. We've been projected for 11.2 carries. Now they're playing against the New England Patriots. I mean, on the road, it's like the Saints' third straight road game, as Noonan has mentioned multiple times, after playing in Jacksonville week one due to the relocation. And then the offense as a whole has put up 128 total yards. They project to play at the seventh slowest pace so far. And this game projects to be just like one of the slowest pace games of the week.

Pat Thorman does some great research on that over at Establish the Run. And, like, this game right now I think is going to be slow, boring, kind of grinded out. it out um but again like i don't think that the volume that doesn't add up to enough volume for kamara there so i like the under on his 15 and a half carries you find that right now minus 105 on drafting he's actually went down from it's being juiced up a little bit more i still like that uh you know definitely there nice i like it uh next for me last one keenan allen over six and a half receptions this is minus 135 on points bet today. I want to attack this Chiefs secondary whenever possible. Keenan Allen, I think, is really the best way to do it efficiently,

especially from a target standpoint. It's nice to see Mike Williams kind of emerging, taking some of the deeper shots there. But there's just a lot of room, a lot of meat on the bone, I think, for Keenan Allen here. He's seen double-digit targets and caught at least seven balls in the past four matchups against the Chiefs. They don't have an answer for him. We've talked about this.

This Chiefs defense is – we know the offense is like a Super Bowl-caliber unit, but the defense is a problem. And they have all these reclamation projects at corner. They're hoping that something sticks. I just don't think that any of them are going to be able to stick to Keenan Allen. Again, 55, 55 and a half point total here. We expect this one to go back and forth. I think it's a pretty nice play for Keenan. I'm willing to pay a little bit of juice here because I kind of think that the Chargers are live outright here. So I think that Keenan Allen's going to have a massive, massive part of that.

So Alex, take us home. Yeah. I like that one a lot, Ryan. But yeah, my final prop is Justin Fields under 212 passing yards. Talk a little bit about a Rob earlier and we touched on fields,

but yeah, in about two and a half quarters of play fields had 60 rushing, or excuse me, 60 passing yards last week versus the Bengals in almost three quarters. He almost had the same amount of rushing attempts that he had passing attempts. Yeah, I think he's going to take off a lot. We mentioned how rookie quarterbacks tend to lock on to their first read and then take off if they're covered. I anticipate that happening a lot, but that's also kind of why I do like Allen Robinson, even though it doesn't necessarily correlate to this play. I expect

him to look a lot towards Allen Robinson. I also think this Browns defense is a bit better than advertised. They obviously got shredded by Mahomes. They didn't look great against the Texans, but yeah, I expect the Browns defense to perform pretty well against the rookie quarterback in this spot, making his first start. Yeah, and I also expect the Browns to run the ball a ton, which is kind of, they have a run-centric offense. That's what they do every week. They grind clock. I expect it to be an ugly game, low scoring, lots of rushing attempts.

I also expect the Bears to also implement a run-centric, excuse me, offensive attack as well, get the ball in Montgomery's hands, limit the amount of throws or mistakes that Fields could potentially make. So yeah, I like his under at 212 and a half passing yards. Alex, you don't live in Chicago, but let me tell you, there are a lot of excited bears fans uh you know they're like i have friends coming out of the woodwork sending me you know justin field's hype videos uh you know and i'm like dude like you know you guys just don't know i think he could be good but like i'm on board with what you're saying alex i think that uh the under is probably my play here but uh i i think he could be a very good player uh so yeah i'm high on his long-term outlook.

I think he's going to be a phenomenal quarterback eventually, but this is a tough spot for any rookie quarterback making his first career start versus at least above-average defense. I just think this is – For sure. He's going to be a mobile quarterback or run first quarterback, so yeah. I'm mad that some of the groups got down on that over 40 rushing yards for fields within seconds.

That was decimated. I couldn't even post it in our Discord fast enough. Same with his rushing attempts. Now it's like 55, something like that. That's about right. I'm not hitting that. Such is life. It was so nice to get them all on fridays and here we are trying to trying to grind it so yeah well those are all actionable

that was a plethora of current bettable props for you so we can complain that they're some of the good ones are taken but we just gave you good ones still. And you're also generous with your questions. We have a few that we can run through here. We'll start with Alfred on Twitter. Great question here. Alfred says, something I often find myself thinking about, is there a limit to the amount of bets you'll place in a game, even if you feel that each individual one is plus EV?

Generally, how concerned should one be with bankroll management and several different bets are correlated thanks thank you alfred good question uh alex what do you think there yeah so i i think that's a great question um typically speaking i i'm not really comfortable putting more than maybe uh like i do go high volume on props early in the season, but I can't, I can't envision a scenario where I'm going to risk more than a quarter of my bankroll.

Like, so yeah, I think that you need to kind of air somewhat cautiously. Yeah. And as far as correlated plays are concerned, I tend to, yeah. For instance, I like, there were two plays in

Seattle's game. It was Chris Carson under 17 and a half rushing attempts, and then I believe Russell Wilson's passing attempts was 37 and a half. I liked both of those unders. Kind of found myself in a predicament where, you know, leaning towards one, am I, you know, kind of neg myself in a predicament where, you know, leaning towards one and, like, you know, kind of negating the other probability of happening. Sure. Yeah, I liked both of those plays.

I ended up playing both of those plays privately. It makes sense, though. Like, they just could be off on total snaps, and especially in that matchup. Like, that's a – I just – I hate betting unders. I know that, like, especially in totals. Like, I know that unders especially in in prop market unders are always there's so many outs for unders but they're just

so painful to sweat but there are that total jumps out is really high for me i haven't pulled the trigger but like both those teams at their core of who they are they want to run the football like they both want to just grind it and it was painful to watch like having sweating out kurt cousins and justin jefferson props last weekend knowing that they're just chucking the want to just grind it. And it was painful to watch, like, sweating out Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson props last weekend, knowing that they're just chucking the ball around the field whenever they want to. But, like, they insisted on grinding the clock down to one second

and running first and second down all the time. It was painful. So I could see that happening again in that game. So they could both hit. So, Connor, how many is too many in one game? I could they could both hit so Connor how many is too many in one game um I I would say that it depends on how confident you are and then a lot of it depends on the game state so like you guys said so you guys expect all you know a really slow paced game and then we've talked about it on Wednesday we probably expect whatever team gets

ahead is just going to want to run the ball so like I think that that game is a little bit scary lean towards the under so I think that playing multiple unders there is actually okay. And especially if you have a big advantage in the projection wise, I think that's fine. I think the same goes for overs though, too. We saw in the Bucks Cowboys home opener, pretty sure every player hit the over on their receiving props. Like it was like just a bonanza. And so if you literally bet every single over,

you would have been just fine. And I think that obviously those games are tough to predict, but I mean, the total was like in the mid 50s. So, you know, it wasn't that surprising. So I think that, you know, understanding game state along with that kind of plays into my process as well in terms of correlating plays and things of that sort. Yeah, there's a lot of contextual things that I feel like you need to weigh in that process when you're looking at things like totals are obviously a good indicator of if you're wanting to

lean over under looking at like historical splits as well how it pertains to the total so yeah i fully agree love it next question is um from bears fan on twitter thoughts on Sunday night football props. Pull up our thing here. I know that I'm interested in Devontae Adams props always. And I know that our projections are always going to be bullish on Devontae Adams props. Again, especially with Jason Verrett out of the lineup. I think that Niner secondary is fraudulent. If they don't get pressure, they're in trouble.

It was really disappointing last week that the eagles weren't able to take care of it we actually gave them credit for how they schemed philadelphia how they schemed week one against atlanta how they didn't put hertz in these situations where he's either just running or chucking it down the field that is exactly what they did against the niners last week he was either running or they were taking shots down the field whereas i think they probably running or they were taking shots down the field, whereas I think they probably could have managed and drove down the field more efficiently a bunch of times.

They had Jalen Rager touchdown callback because he stepped out of bounds. But anyway, I feel like this Niner secondary is something that we can exploit. I think there's some name brand value there. And even though the Packers are slow offensively, like pace-wise, they were last year too, and they still led the league in points per drive and yards per drive this is a massive mismatch for davante i'm trying to find his number here um his catches are eight and a half eight and a half a ton of catches but you can sell me on an over you can sell me on an over 85 and a half receiving or receiving yards but the eight and a half catches i can't i can't play it now i can play over 85 though eight and a half is a lot on the other side of things i like

debo i think debo is being slept on he's looked phenomenal obviously coming into this week he was the leading receiver and receiving yards yards after the catch yards per game as well um yeah i love the way that his route tree has kind of evolved. They're using him down the field. They're targeting him down the field. They also manufacture touches for him. He's one of the best yards after the catch receivers in the NFL. As long as he's healthy, I think he's going to be very productive. And I think we're going to continue to see Kyle Shanahan scheme him the ball, get the ball in his hands because he is electric when he has the ball his uh receiving line is around 63 and a half i think that's too low i haven't projected in the mid 70s so yeah i'm playing debo's over yeah my only i just wonder when they're going to kind of

work brandon are you in like what he did to get in the doghouse or like you know it's injury related because he looked like a legit alpha wide receiver one last year and i know debo is a little banged up as well so it's kind of like those two have switched um i'm excited when they have both of those two healthy slash in good form and lance on the field i mean it's going to be uh wheels up for that offense you know that's going to be fun for sure a couple uh two-part questions although it also to own like connor gave us one he gave us a sunday night prop on lazard so that. So that's a freebie from earlier too. This is kind of a two-part question. I could do it quickly.

KJ on Twitter. Are there any players that you have a good read that you continually cash with? Yeah, Devontae Adams. Devontae Adams yardage props have been pretty fruitful. And he's actually the only guy that I think I've ever... I don't bet touchdown props. Last year, he was money.

They used him so frequently inside the five. But now they're like minus 200. You're telling me that probability is insane. It's just not the right way to do it. And I just continue to preach that there's a reason that the sportsbooks post those bad boys at the top when you open the app.

They are there on purpose. They want you to bet the touchdown props. And I know that they're fun. And like the first touchdown props, those are even dumber people. I'm sorry. I understand the appeal of them, but just leave them alone. There are other ways to bet. Did you guys see a fan duel today?

They posted a same game parlay at the top. When you log in, it's like this many people have bet this same-game parlay, and it's like five different player pops over. I'm like, this is the biggest sucker bet I've ever seen in my life. Oh, man. It's like the barstool thing. They're just feeding you losers, literally feeding you losers. The other part of the question,

were there any specific players that have burned you too many times that you've blacklisted them and don't bet? Personally, no. part of the question where there's any specific players that have burned you too many times that you've blacklisted them and don't bet um personally no but you know i feel like that would be you'd be missing opportunities but i don't want to speak for the group alex what do you think yeah i agree i'm you know even if it's a guy that i've had poor results with over you know significant sample size i'm never going to just neglect him you know because if he provides value or he offers value or the projections you know offer uh something that i think is a strong play then i'm going to go for it um but i do have guys that i like like for instance like rookie receivers that i think are being underlooked undervalued i think all of us have been on jaylen

waddle to start the season rondale moore i'm waiting for his props to drop um yeah i've been on Jalen Waddle to start the season. Rondell Moore, I'm waiting for his props to drop. Yeah, I've been riding both of those guys. Devontae Smith, even though he missed his receptions prop last week, I still think that these really talented, explosive young rookies, the books are a little bit behind on projecting just how productive they can potentially be or their roles in the offense. So, yeah, I tend to look and kind of ride those types of situations. And the flip side of that, I've been fading Najee Harris for the first two weeks and fading him again this week as I brought his play up earlier.

Yeah. How about you, Connor? Anything real quick? Yeah, I think I bet David Johnson under receiving props like seven times last year because you would only get two to three targets a game and under two and a half receptions was plus money literally every week and on the flip side uh you know i'll never not bet something if there's value but you know watching a player like like leonard fournette rent turned into christian mccaffrey at halftime of the first thursday night game was uh tilting to say the least and you know but i mean it was that like he was being used in the receiving games like i'm not going to bet the under the next week even though i don't i thought that there was value in week one definitely wasn't value in week two and the overhead again and now i think you know with

ronald jones permanently the doghouse there's no value going forward on those receiving props because you know uncle lenny's uh rb1 so not touching it yeah i mean i it's not that i stay away from ronald jones props but i think he's terrible at football. So I just don't bet on him anyway. So like I don't blacklist him per se. I just don't want, I wouldn't feel good about cashing a Ronald Jones ticket. I wouldn't even tell anyone I bet it. I wouldn't put it in the discord. I definitely wouldn't tell Connor about it. So just as something I stay away from. Another good one here. Curious of your thoughts on the Deontay Johnson fallout. Do you think Juju will be the main beneficiary? Do we like his over 56 and a half?

It's Adam on Twitter. I actually already bet on Chase Claypool over receiving ours today. I took that as a speculative play for us in our Discord chat this afternoon, thinking that there was a chance that Deontay was out. Our projections had him a yard short of his prop number, but our projections also had Deontay for five and 57. And if you look at like snaps and routes run, there's really not a lot of room for Juju to see an increase.

It doesn't mean that he can't see some of those targets, but he is probably going to play a similar amount of snaps and run a similar amount of targets where last week, I think Claypool ran 13 fewer routes um and then had a handful less targets and there's room for him to grow here i think also there's just kind of some air yards by low stuff and on him too with kind of the way they use him and trey waynes is out for uh the bangles again not a great secondary to begin with but my play there reactionary to dontay would be on Claypool. What do you think, Alex?

I absolutely 100% fully agree. We've seen Juju. His role is going to remain the same. We've seen Claypool, like you mentioned. He's had minimal volume in the first week and the second week. I think he's a phenomenal breakout player. I think he's extremely talented. I think he can get the ball in his hands more, and he sees higher volume. He's going to be a major breakout player. I think he's extremely talented. I think he can get the ball in his hands more and he sees higher volume. He's going to be a major

breakout receiver. So yeah, I think he is by far the biggest beneficiary. And if I was looking at anyone in that offense that was going to soak up some of those targets, it would absolutely be Claypool. So yeah, I love his over. I have a couple more. Next one to you, Connor. When analyzing a game or prop, how much is game theory versus breakdown and statistics? That's from Scott on Twitter. You're grinding film. I would say it's a mixture of both,

and I think it depends on kind of what – yeah, I would say it's a mixture of both. Obviously, I take into consideration what I've seen. I take into consideration our projections, game flow, over-unders, match-up to some extent volume uh injuries are big too like it's just some blend of all of that uh and so that's how i would mostly say i mean there's there is a more defined process to it than that but those are all the things that i i personally consider alex how about you yeah connor i think that's spot on i when

people ask me like what do you weigh or do you look at this? I tend to tell them it's like a giant puzzle and there's, you know, various puzzle pieces that I'm using, projections. There's contextual data, historical data. Yeah, there's a lot that goes into it. I'm looking at, yeah, pretty much all the information and data that I can possibly get my hands on and then some. So, yeah, it's quite it can be as, you know, complicated as a process as you want it to be. Or you can try to simplify things and just, you know, compare it to projections or, you know, statistical analysis or modeling that you look at. But, yeah, I tend to look at every bit of data and information that I can get my hands on.

I agree. I think leaning data makes the most sense. I'm a psychopath. I know probably, you know, these two are as well. And if you're listening, you probably are. But, you know, game pass is an amazing feature. You know, you can like knock out a game in 40, 45 minutes. The only thing I would say with that is that we, you know, you're, you aren't in the play call. You aren't in the huddle.

You aren't in the coach's ear. So we don't necessarily know what the ask was. So like, it's hard to get in there as far as like being a real tape grinder per se without really knowing exactly what you're looking for. Obviously there are some things to any eye that's watched enough football to know, you know, what's good and not and not good in moments

but also i would say just be careful on relying too much on your scout eye and giving yourself too much credit for what you think you're seeing because we just don't always know you know especially when it comes to like blown coverages defensively like we just we weren't on we weren't on the play call we have no idea who who blew what. Tips for mindset hunting for unders more naturally. I feel like for every four overs, I have one under and I'd like to switch that. I can relate to that, but I think it's a little bit, I find it easier to bet unders in the season-long market. I find I enjoy finding an edge in an over. I feel like there are opportunities where we're always talking about, like the old adage I go back to all the time is like DFS.

Everyone uses DFS. They're always using totals to think about how do I want to build stacks? What are the highest total games? I feel like one of the weaknesses there is that you want to look at games that you have an edge or lean on it going over the total. It's not necessarily baked into the projection. It's not going to drive ownership, but you feel like this one's way off. And if this was four and a half, five points higher,

they'd be driving a ton of ownership there. Then I have an edge. So for me, I lean overs often, even though I know it's a donkey play. And there are so many more outs for unders. Alex, how do you balance that? Yeah, so it's counterintuitive, right. To like look at something and then suddenly feel like,

you know, this should go under. I totally understand the mindset of kind of being overwhelmed with things that over is making a lot more sense. I guess just repetition for me. I just, you know, basically have figured out that unders historically hit somewhere between

55 and 58%. So yeah, I tend to analyze things or I've kind of trained myself to analyze things. So look under before I even consider an over. So yeah, basically it's just was a process that evolved over time. Connor, what do you think there, buddy? Yeah, it takes time for sure. So I yeah, basically it just was a process that evolved over time. Connor, what do you think there, buddy? Yeah, it takes time for sure. So, I mean, even last year for me, so Dan Rivera does a sheet for us and tracks all of our picks and stuff. So, I mean, at the end of the year I was hitting 63% of my unders

and like 55% of my overs. And I played twice as many overs as unders. And so that's something this year and just like as I've evolved, I've continually as many overs as unders. And so that's something this year. And just like, as I've evolved, I've continually tried to play more unders and just focus on like our projections versus, you know, like that. Cause I mean, everyone wants to bet over. So like numbers are always inflated to some extent.

And so for me, like it is, has been like Alex said, like, you know, is the under needs to be the first consideration. And then it's like, if you're only should be betting an over, unless you have like a 20 to 30% edge on a number generally, if not more. And so,

because there's so many outs for an under a player, you know, pulls a hammy or something like that, or even if they have a few plays McCaffrey. Yeah. And then like, you know, you just don't know all the time,

like with the over. So it's really, really tough. There's a lot of variants, but I would say, you know, using projections helps a lot for unders. I would say that's like the biggest thing is like to keep you grounded, like use, you

know, our projections of 4x4, use the odds makers projections over at Action Network. Like there's fantastic resources that do projections that are better than sports books. So like that's kind of should be your basis for betting unders. Yeah, no, it's a great, that's a great point. So great questions in the chat. There's some more we couldn't get to, but we can save these for next time. Again, don't forget to pepper it early. Put them on YouTube, or if they're already on the YouTube channel,

this translates. I'm not sure how it works. We'll find them. We'll go over there and answer them too because we want to make sure we answer all those questions. So you guys are awesome. Again, don't forget, use our projections, 444.com slash plans. Take advantage of that Kelsey 87 promo, Good Through Sunday,

that is going to get you 25% off if you are a new subscriber. The betting sub gets you everything on the site. We have to give you a taste of that real quick with our prop tool pick of the week. Sal is 2-0, and this gives you a little bit of a look at what this tool does. We actually merge our props with the books out there. Sal, you can pop that up there for everyone to see. Let's see what your prop is. We can get our take on it before we wrap up the show.

Did you change it this time? All right, let's see what it is. All right, Tyson Williams receiving yards over 10.5. Is that all it is right now? I didn't even know that. That is juicy. As you can see, the prop tool here likes that quite a bit. Our projection is comfortably higher, 23.6 yards there. A nice 17.7, screaming bright green value.

Alex, first impressions. Yeah, I like that a lot. I'm actually shocked it's not 15 or 16. Yeah, I think he's earned the lion's share of the backfield touches. He's looked great the first two weeks. Yeah, I think that's a great prop. I'm shocked that I haven't seen it, and I'd like to play it personally. Connor, your initial reaction tells me that I need to know.

Yeah, that was my thought. I thought it opened at like 15, 16. I didn't know that it was available at 10. I'm in on that. I'm going to better right it was available at 10. I'm in on that. I'm going to bet it right now, actually, Sal. I'm in on it. Nice. Well, Sal's 2-0 here with this one.

Again, if this is new to you and you're watching the first time, this is available through our betting sub. It's incredible. Again, you can see you can pick your states, you can pick your book, whatever stats you want to display. You can get real granular if you want to look at team only or player only. You can adjust props all the way to the far right column. If maybe you have an offshore or a credit book and you get a different number, you want to still see where that lines up and what the value is.

This is really user-friendly and yeah, we're pretty proud of it. And it is helping us make some good decisions and kind of check our instant reactions to the prop tool to kind of gauge where we should put our money. So good stuff, Sal. I think you're going to end up being 3-0 here. It sounds like the guys are pretty convicted on that one. All right. Well, that wraps this up. Again, don't forget to subscribe, rate, and review.

Leave us a comment. We really appreciate it. Again, if you have any other questions, I will make sure I will circle back here either Sunday or probably later today or Saturday. Make sure we get these answered for you so you can chase any numbers that are out there currently before they die. So for Connor and Alex, I'm Ryan. We will see you next week. Thanks, everyone. Outro Music