Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 4 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: October 2, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus introducing third co-host Alex Selesnick. In this week's episode, the trio discusses their top Week 4 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 4 Prop Drop Intro 2:28 Connor Prop No. 1 3:30 Ryan Prop No. 1 4:28 Alex Prop No. 1 6:02 Connor Prop No. 2 8:55 Ryan Prop No. 2 11:01 Alex Prop No. 2 13:25 Connor Prop No. 3 14:32 Ryan Prop No. 3 17:07 Alex Prop No. 3 21:57 Connor Prop No. 4 23:25 Ryan Prop No. 4 24:38 Alex Prop No. 4 26:07 Twitter Questions 41:21 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 46:00 Week 4 Prop Drop OutroSHOW LESS 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by WinBets. Download the WinBet app today enter promo code four for four and receive a risk-free thousand dollar bets joining me as always connor allen what's going on buddy not too much uh just another week out here and you know excited to talk props on a friday night man nothing better hoping the internet on my end holds up okay a little technical glitches here and there uh back with us again in the spot as always our friend prop stars alex what's going on buddy what's up gentlemen yeah i'm excited it's friday night it's week four been an awesome season so far i'm ready to get down the business you got

the full portland vibe going on right now brother we just crawled in from the woods to fire off some props to the people. Love it. Let's tweet that out. Let's get people in the lab. Yeah, he's in the lab. We got we got some good, some good discussion questions for later in the show, which is awesome. And we want to make sure we get to those. We want to make this as interactive as possible. So anything out there that you're thinking about firing at or you want some confirmation bias one way or the other, we'd love to have your questions here. I can hop in over on our 4 for 4 YouTube page, firing some questions over there as well. Suddenly StreamYard and Twitter

aren't playing quite as nice as they used to, so I'll try to make it work. This is our Prop Drop Show, props only. We also do a Wednesday game-by-game preview. Subscribe. You can make sure you can check out both shows, both available in podcast and, again, on YouTube as well. So also head over to 444.com slash plans. You can get some of the cool tools, all the access to all the things we have over at 444.com. You can get all of that in our show notes.

So let's jump into it, gentlemen. We kind of had another week, like two weeks ago, I think we got a pretty good amount of props on Wednesday, not so much on Thursday, but then a good amount again today. And really our focus is wanting to get props out to you today as a listener that are actionable and current right now. You can be on your phone, you know, listening to this, and then also firing off of these as well. So Connor, kick us off. What's your first prop? Yeah, so I'm going to start us off with Jalen Waddell over three and a half receptions. You're

able to find this right now, minus 149 at Caesars or four and a half at Plus Money and a bunch of other spots, I believe. That's where we grabbed, initially. But I think that this is just a great spot for Waddle right now as a 22% target share from Brissette. Uh, and you're looking at 30 to 35 past attempts for him. So probably you're looking at six, six to seven, maybe even eight targets for,

uh, Waddle. And so based on that number, like, I think that there's no way that he should be, uh, this should be a three and a half right now. And I think that he'll be ended up with like five to six receptions in this one we haven't projected for that many we're

projected for six receptions not to mention the matchup here is really easy against the decimated colts defense uh so i i really like that and i think that that's a play at three and a half a play at four and a half even even money so uh depending on what you have access to i like that one a lot yeah he got peppered heavy last week. And you imagine that continues to happen there with Jacoby Brissett there is a good one. I think it's still, like you said, still actionable. First one for me, I'm in on, I was actually going a little bit against our tool. I'm in on Odell Beckham this week, and I got some confirmation from Alex because he was in on it too. I think we're just a little light.

He caught five balls on nine targets last week, 77 yards in his debut. Looks really healthy and nice solid 16.3 ADOT. Again, 33% of the target share is massive. And he was on the field for basically every snap in the first three quarters when that game, I guess you could say it was still up for grabs. I mean, it was obviously just a curb stomping in a bad way. So like his snaps and routes run don't look great. But again, when the game was undecided, he was on the field. So I like the over in this game as well. So I think that correlates well here. Only the Jets, Dolphins, Chiefs, and Lions have given up a higher rate of explosive pass plays so far than the Vikings have.

So give me over on Odell at 65 and a half. Alex, what do you got, buddy? Yeah, just to touch on what you were saying, Ryan, I absolutely love that prop as well. It's one of my favorite plays of the week. Yeah, the Vikings are about as soft as a matchup as you can get. They've been playing at a super fast pace. They've been throwing the ball a ton. Kirk Cousins has been spinning it. They've been scoring like 30 points a game. I don't think I mean, I do think this game is going to be a shootout. I think the Browns are going to have to keep up. The Browns have very few viable receiving options outside of Odell.

So, yeah, I love this prop. I think it's at least seven, eight yards too low. So, yeah, I'm all about it. Yeah, my first prop of the week is Jonathan Taylor over 71.5 rushing yards. I got this at minus 115 at DraftKings. Taylor has had a slow start to the season, especially after watching him come on like gangbusters in the second half of last season.

He's still waiting for his true breakout game. He's gone for 64, 51, and 56 rushing yards so far. The Colts are 0 of 3 and have been trailing in all three games. And as a result, they've had to abandon the run in the second half of all these games. So he's been dealing with a lot of negative game script he finally has a potentially positive game script against a miami defense that has not been able to stop anyone last week they allowed uh 111 yards from the corpse of caton barber to ran wild on them uh devin singletary went for 13

for 82 the week prior to that and damian har Harris had a 100-yard game in week one against New England. So, yeah, I think we're going to see a lot of Jonathan Taylor this week. I think they're going to lean on him. He's their workhorse. I know the line is a little bit banged up. But, yeah, I think he's too good. And I think Miami's defense is not good. So, yeah, I love Jonathan Taylor over 71-and-a-half rushing yards this week.

I like that, too. I like that one quite a bit. Connor, your second one you're going on a little get a little narrative play here a little revenge action i feel brilliant you just you just like that one because he was dogging on miami and i think anything anti-miami is uh good for you i did i like to actually back in the dolphins this week i took him i took wow i took him in the look heads you don't even know because i sent you the bets last week and you just ignore all my texts.

Yeah, you might want to start to listen to a little bit of them. But yeah, I'm backing the Dolphins this week, which is shocking. But those are two teams we've been, well, I've been actively fading both. I know you've been on the Colts fade, but I still think that we can fade them and the Jonathan Taylor stuff hits too. So I have a Colts prop as well, even though I'm fading them. We'll get to that later. But what's your second one, Connor?

Yeah, so I like Corey Davis over 53 and a half receiving yards. So we haven't projected for 66 in this spot. Elijah Moore has already been ruled out. I mean, if you kind of look at who the Jets have played so far, I get that they've looked just absolutely awful. They haven't been able to move the ball. But so far they've played against the Panthers, who ranked number one in EPA. They've played against the Panthers, who rank number one in EPA.

They've played against the Broncos, who are third in EPA. They've played against the Patriots, who are seventh in EPA. So you're looking at three elite-slash-top-ten defenses that they've played so far. Now they're going to face the Titans, who are 26 in EPA so far. And I don't think that it's necessarily the Jets are going to be an awesome offense, but given who they played and, you know, kind of that bounce back there, and then you get a little bit of the revenge narrative for Corey Davis,

I think that 53 yards is a little bit too short, and we're going to see a big bounce back week from Davis. I think that the Jets are alive a little bit, too. We talked about that. I think that at this point, I mean, the line moved from 7.5 to 6. And so, yeah, I like this Corey Davis prop over though, for sure. Yeah. That's a big move. Yeah. What do you got Alex? I love this prop as well. I gave it out in my column. Yeah.

I think it's awesome. You know, Corey Davis has been the number one receiver on the jets. They're banged up the receiving corpses. Then Elijah Moore and Jameson Crowder are both questionable. I think, I don't know if they've been ruled out yet. I haven't checked their status recently, but yeah. More for sure. I haven't heard if they've been ruled out yet. I haven't checked their status recently. Moore, for sure. I haven't heard about Crowder, but Moore, yeah.

Moore's out. He's going to continue to get a lot of targets. I also think this matchup is, obviously, there's the revenge narrative, but Tennessee is not stopping anyone. I believe they've allowed at least eight or it's either nine or eight receivers to go over this total. So, yeah. Furthermore, the large target share is obviously really encouraging.

And Zach Wilson has not been good, but they can move the ball between the 20s against Tennessee. I have no doubt about that. And, yeah, Corey Davis' first three games have been against really good secondaries. So, you know, I think that obviously has something to do with his lack of production. But, yeah, everything I've seen is really encouraging. This number is too low, and I'm expecting him to have a good game as well this is good stuff connor right we're just we're just firing off our props and then we just got like alley-oop and alex to come behind and just like

dunk it home a little bit extra analysis i'm gonna do it again here because i know that this is one that he was wanting um but again i got to the sheet first today so i got to put him in before anyone else did uh jacoby my Myers over 61 and a half receiving yards. It's minus 115 on DraftKings. I think the Pats are going to have to focus on quick, short passes against the Bucs. Sean Murphy Bunting is out. We saw kind of the impact that he has on that defense.

Obviously, Cooper Cup just smashed and dominated on the slot last week. We know that obviously, you know,ers is the cup and uh you know mac isn't stafford per se but massive workload so far for jacobi uh nine of 14 balls hauled in last week against the saints again in a you know catch-up situation 94 yards in that negative game script i think they're gonna have to do it again here did the loss of james white only helps they don't really have that short yardage back where they like to dump guys off so some of that low a dot stuff for myers i think you could have another situation where he's in that you know 12 target range um i think you can get there pretty easily if he's going to get a dozen targets alex so um bring me home what else you got absolutely love this

prop ryan i gave it on twitter earlier um yeah it's one of my favorite plays of the week um yeah just touching on what you said he's he's been number one on targets each every single game so far new england james white being out you know could even boost him even further the bucks rank 32nd out of 32nd and passing yards allowed per game they're giving that 338.3 i also believe uh jamel dean is going to be missing as well so the secondary is just ravaged from injuries. You mentioned Murphy Bunting. And, yeah, the Tampa Bay's rush defense is elite.

Teams don't even attempt to run the ball against them. I think opposing teams rank fourth in opponent rushing attempts per game versus Tampa Bay. I think, obviously, on the other side, Tampa Bay is going to spin it, score a lot. They're going to be forced to keep up and throw. So, yeah, I love Myers. I love how that position on the Patriots just historically is always super productive.

And I just think he's the next line of receivers like Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, to be another really productive New England slot receiver. So, yeah, I love Myers this week. Love it. Let's cash it. Let's cash it this week. What else you got? You got another one for us, number two?

I do. I do. I do. So my next one is Saquon under 56 and a half. I'm not upset. Last week I gave him out, I think, as one of my plays as an over. But, yeah, I'm fading him this week. I was encouraged by what I saw, but there's more to do with it. I think this matchup is very difficult.

The Saints' defense has been extremely stout up front. They limited Christian McCaffrey to 24 carries and 72 yards. Damian Harris to six carries for 14 yards and Aaron Jones to five carries and nine yards. I just don't think Saquon's going to be given the type of workload like C-Mac had, for instance, where he had 24 carries, you know, to have inefficient 70 yards. I just don't see Saquon going over 12 or maybe, I don't know, 14 to 15 touches. The Saints are also a large favorite in the game. I think they're going to be, I think the Giants are going to be trailing. I think they're going to utilize Saquon in the passing game where he looked

extremely effective, extremely explosive last week. He was getting a lot of targets. He was getting loose. That Giant, that Giant's offensive line is dismal. Their receiver core is obviously banged up too. So I think they're going to lean on saquon more as a receiver and yeah i think they're going to be playing from behind and yeah i'm fading saquon under 56 and a half rushing yards and it was at minus 115 the last i checked on draft kings like it i was really surprised the last week that how well that saints front is holding up without marcus davenport who's really like the you know the most impactful player i think in their front seven and they are still just dominant against the run they really is holding up without Marcus Davenport, who's really like the most impactful player, I think, in their front seven. And they are still just dominant against the run. They really didn't

let Damian Harris do anything last week, which was disappointing. But I mean, it seems like scheme-wise, it's still something that they're elite at. And yeah, I like that fade. I think that's a really good call. I think he probably has more of a workload in the passing game. So Connor, I like the one that you have next for us. What's number three for you? Yeah, before we get to that, I do think that we need to mention that the chat is just absolutely loving Propstar's hair right now. Prop Daddy, your hair looks amazing from Brett Ross. And Jonathan Cosby, the main is out.

Yeah, I mean, I mentioned that pre-show and so did Noonan. We love it. We're big fans. I said that Alex could be like a Trevor Lawrence doppelganger down there. Yeah, man, just let the Portland shine. I love it. We're big fans. I said that, you know, Alex could be like a Trevor Lawrence doppelganger down there. Yeah, man. Just let the Portland shine. You know? I love it.

Just lean into it a little bit, you know? Amazing. I'll show you my organic garden after this show. I think we might be talking the same language. Yeah, I was about to say, Noonan would probably be very interested in that. All right. Anyways, into my, into my prop here,

Jalen hurts over 235 and a half passing. It's actually open to two 50 and now it's been bet down to two 35. I have, you know, pretty much no idea why I thought two 50, even like two 60 was about right. He's, we have a projector for two over 260 passing yards.

Chiefs rank dead last in yards per play and EPA so far defensively. And so now you're looking at a matchup where they're probably going to be playing from behind. And the matchup is good. And if you look at Jalen Hurts' history, in games that he started and finished, he's hit this in four or six games. In games that they've lost and that he's started and finished, he's hit this in three or four games in his career. So I like the over here a lot.

And I think that with the matchup here and kind of the game script, I think the over here a lot. And I think that, you know, with the matchup here and, you know, kind of the game script, I think that this is a good play here. And I think that there's also some other ways you can attack it too through Devonta Smith and some other ones as well that I think I'm going to be digging into. And I think they're good bets too.

Yeah, good call. Seems like such a catch-up space for them. You can't imagine that we're going to have, we talked about it on the Wednesday show, like it just seems unlikely that we have a one and three chiefs team here right so like you know you can imagine they're having to play catch up and that makes a ton of sense so like it uh next for me i was gonna do i had a diami brown that thing was gone in a flash so um that one's not useful to you anymore i think that it got cut half. I went from like 27 and a half yards to like 12,

which is probably still an underplay for Diami Brown, but I can't recommend it. Michael Pittman, over 47 and a half yards. That's minus 115 on DraftKings. Again, more Colts love here. Not a lot to be excited about if you're a Colts fan, but you know, a little JT, a little Michael Pittman. I think you should be fired up.

Last two weeks for Pittman have been all that I've hoped they would be over the last two years is really one of my favorite guys here upcoming in the league. He's running around on 100% of the dropbacks, 30% target share against the Rams. He saw 45% of the air yards in that game. And then last week against the titans they increased 35 of the team targets 60 of the team's air yards he is targeted 71 of the time on third and fourth down like he is there he is it there is not a lot else going on they have a bunch of tight ends but they don't seem to want to use them a lot it's kind of very little paris campbell very little zach pascal um i'm not super worried about like Sabian Howard trailing.

He hasn't really been doing that a ton so far this year. Really nice highlight of him getting absolutely cooked by Hunter Renfro last week. So I don't know that we necessarily need to be worried about cornerback receiver matchups. I don't really think that that's, at least I know for Connor, I don't think that's a really big part of our analysis. I don't know that Alex gets into that too much. It's very noisy. I think that those are – there's very rare outliers where I'm going to make a start-sit

or a yes-no decision on a prop based on a cornerback when they really don't play that much, you know, 100% on one dude. So, yeah, we have him projected for 69 yards which is a very nice number uh feels pretty comfortable over the 47 and a half on pitman so i like that one quite a bit um alex what's your next one buddy yeah i like that one as well ryan um i actually believe that he may be the most popular uh player so far and move the line i think we've called him i know i've called him twice and i think you called him once so I think three of the four weeks we've been on Pittman. We might need to change

a segment, the Michael Pittman segment of the week, where we only hit overs on Michael Pittman. We find one, whether it's receptions. Worst case, we just bet a touchdown prop. I mean, at least you get some plus odds there. So I actually have a bet on the guy. So I'm going to

dunk on this one after you do, because I bet a different way on your number three guy. Yeah, so my number three guy is Tim Patrick over three and a half catches. It's juicy, but I think the juice is worth a squeeze in this case. It was last I checked, it was a minus 145 on Caesars. You mentioned how much you like Pittman. I have a similar man crush on Tim Patrick. I think he's one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL. The guy, I don't even understand how he's buried on the depth chart. To me, he could start on most teams and be super productive. He's six foot four. He wins with incredible body control. The way he moves on the sidelines and just makes these incredible toe touching grabs is just amazing. I believe he's been targeted

three times this season. He's been hyper efficient, turned those, or excuse me, 13 targets. He's turned 13 targets into 12 catches for over 135 yards. He has a deep A dot too. So it's not like he's getting these targets close to the line of scrimmage. So that sort of efficiency and he's running his routes deep down the field is super impressive. Denver has also played three poor opponents that they have been whooping in coming to the second half, and they're just running Javante Williams and Melvin Gordon. So Teddy Bridgewater's not even throwing the ball much in any of these

second halves, so he's dealt with negative game strips. They're playing Baltimore. Baltimore's secondary has just been absolutely ravished with injuries. They're playing terribly. They're allowing at least a third most passing yards in the NFL this season per game. And, yeah, I just love Tim Patrick. I think his receptions and his yards are both awesome. I actually was on his yards, and it moved enough that I pivoted to his catches.

So, yeah, I love both plays. I think you like his yards as well, Ryan. Yeah, I took the over on the 42.5 this morning on the yards. Yeah, the Ravens are giving up the sixth highest rate of explosive pass plays. You mentioned the A-dot really fits into his game. He benefits from the attrition of the position,

which, to your point, probably shouldn't happen to begin with, but Jerry Judy's out, KJ Hamler's out. It only narrows the targetry there, and like you said, in a game where we expect it to be a little bit more back and forth than what we've seen so far you know i think that 42 and a half is very very very comfortable we haven't been 65 yards in our projections um it's like smells of a points bet connor even uh points but i think the the bottom is 52 on on patrick like i think he i think he could have a nice day if he comes home with four or five balls

with that type of a dot i think he was like sixth in day if he comes home with four or five balls with that type of ADOT. I think he was sixth in the league and averaged at the target last week. He should have opened at 50 yards in my opinion. I think getting 42 is a tremendous value. I do like that

points but opportunity too because the upside there is pretty interesting. He could very easily go for 100 yards. All he's got you know he's the the upside there is pretty interesting like he very easily go for 100 yards all he's got to do is catch all like one long ball and continue his you know intermediate usage as well um so yeah i think maybe i'll put a little bit on that too i don't know you know for those who aren't familiar with points betting uh every yard under the points bet you lose whatever you put your stake and then for every yard over the points bet you win your stake so if it's at 52 and you put down you stake a dollar uh if you end up with 100 receiving yards

you uh win 48 dollars if you end up with zero you lose 52 dollars so it's kind of like you know you're really gambling when your points bet like you know we talk about gambling like you're really uh things can get dicey quick um but they are uh it's a crack. So once you start, you're not going to want to stop. We have a group in our 4-for-4 Discord that literally will hit us up every island game and be like, what are we points betting tonight? Because it's so addicting. But anyways. I'm an action junkie.

That sounds like right up my alley. Oh, yeah. I'm upset I haven't heard this before. No, it is incredible. I found out about it last year when it was legalized in Illinois, and it's just shoot it right into the veins. It is incredible. Yeah, they start the threshold of the points bet higher than what the normal

binary prop is. So they're trying to cover themselves and give themselves a little bit of leeway. But there are certain ways to do it. Connor's honed in on it. I always bounce it off of him because he has a lot more reps in that area than I do. But, you know, things like we had a Daniel Jones rushing yards one. Again, something like that where if you miss, like the number itself is also still pretty low. So, you know, in itself is built in a little bit less risk.

But, you know, in that game against Washington, Jones ran for, I think, 90-something yards. And, you know, you're just cooking with gas at that point. It seems like mean, medium players like Valdez Scantling, for instance, would be like a super-plus EV player. You know, because he was around 35, but obviously he has like 100-yard upside in every game. He's going to catch a couple bombs. He was one of my favorites.

Like him, Jalen Guyton, then Daniel Jones, rushing yardage, like low numbers. Actually, I took a little points bet on Ertz this week because it was only like 25. favorites like him jalen guyton then daniel jones rushing yardage like low numbers uh i actually i took a little points bet on on urts this week because it was only like 25 so uh i mean you could easily end up with like 60 70 anyways we can get back on script here sorry guys no we're good um tim patrick back to you connor for your last one okay um last one here davis mills under 20 205.5 passing yards at FanDuel. I mean, this one, for me, like Davis Mills, you know, looked cooked last week. They tried running the ball, and they will try running the ball consistently.

And then when they did start opening it up, they looked okay, but a lot of it was because J.C. Horn went down, and like Cooks was able to kind of, you know, capitalize on that. Now they're going to have Tredavious White shadowing him. They're playing against the Bills, the Bills defense, second in EPA, third in yards per play allowed so far. So, I mean, I think that if they can lock up Cooks, like, you know, Mills is really, really in trouble.

I mean, not to mention he went under this last week when he started. You know, I really think that this, like he's going to end up with like, this might be a points put opportunity too, because I think that there's a good chance he ends up with like 100, 150 yards in this one, rather than like 250 to 300 and really burn us. I wanted to take a team total under on the Texans, but it's like 13, 13 and a half. It's like, oh man, really? I mean, there's so much anything over 14 i think is fine i know that's what i was kind of looking for but even that's just you know it's just so light but

yeah i i get it i mean this is a it's a tough spot they have the trudeaus white that can that can lock down cooks who's their only guy yeah like you said he's their best player i mean that's like embarrassing that brandon significant margin yeah like top to bottom your team their best player. I mean, that's like embarrassing. That Brandon Cook is like top to bottom of your team's best player. Not a place you want to be. My last one is Chase Edmonds, over four and a half receptions. This is plus 100 at Caesars. You can get it at minus 105 at DraftKings. I still think that that's a great number.

Only McCaffrey and James White have a higher target share from the running back position than Chase Edmonds does. So basically this week in the NFL, no one has a higher target share at the running back position than Chase Edmonds because the other two guys are out. So he's topped this in every game so far this season. He's run a route on 66% of Kyler's dropbacks. I'm expecting neutral to negative game script. I really like the Rams to win here. So I think worst case scenario, maybe the Cardinals are up a little bit, but I expect them to be trailing a little bit in the second half. I think it's going to be a nice week for

the Rams. But even in week one, where they dominated the Titans from the jump, Edmonds still saw a 14% target share. He still caught five balls in that one um and we're getting even odds on edmunds here so uh absolutely love this one love the price and uh yeah i think this is a really good play i might go back to it and hit it again because the more i've dug into it the more i really like it uh alex take us home buddy what is your uh number five for you yeah i'm saving my best for last and speaking of running backs with large target shares i've got austin eckler looking ahead to monday night football over 34 and a half receiving yards i last saw those at negative 115 on fan duel i have no idea why this number is this low i mean we saw the season opener where eckler inexplicably had zero targets zero receptions in

the passing game but since then he's gone 15 catches, 113 yards, and one touchdown over his last two games. Yeah, to me, he's one of the best dual threat running backs in the league. He's gone over in 10 of his last 13 regular season games, good for a 77% hit rate. He'll face a Raiders team that ranks in the middle of the pack in most defensive categories, but have really struggled defending the middle of the field, where obviously Eckler thrives,

and he's a major mismatch for linebackers to handle. The Chargers currently rank fifth in passing attempts per game. Vegas checks in at second. I think this matchup is destined to feature a ton of passing. I'm banking on Eckler being a focal point of the Chargers passing attack. I expect Herbert to check down on him a bit. And yeah, this number is so low, it doesn't even require a large target share. Yeah, I know Eckler, even his injury plague last season was averaging over 40 receiving yards per game the season before that when he was

fully healthy he was averaging 65 receiving yards per game so yeah to me this number should have opened at 45 and a half i have no idea why it opened this low and i absolutely love it love it absolutely love it too good call on eckler It's a great matchup. What do we got? We got some questions in the chat. I know we got some questions too on Twitter earlier. Let me see here. What do we think of Tom Brady over two and a half touchdowns and Antonio Brown over 44 and a half yards?

Anyone jump in on thoughts on those? Obviously, narrative is strong. I don't know if you guys heard, but, yeah, apparently Tom Brady is going back to New England this week. Lightly covered story, but barely on ESPN. I don't even know. But thoughts on those, guys? Yeah, I gave out Antonio Brown in my free play for Sportsline,

my column that I wrote today. So, yeah, I love that prop. Not only is this somewhat of a reunion for Gronk and Brady, obviously, Antonio Brown is making his long awaited return to New England. He never played a game there. He's a lust for one game.

In Miami. He never actually played in the Patriots. Making his return to Foxborough. He's obviously going to be up for this revenge narrative. No, but yeah, after a huge week one versus Dallas, where he had over 100 receiving yards in the first half, came back down to earth versus the Falcons. Didn't really need him, obviously, to beat the Falcons.

They were winning for most of that, or I think from wire to wire in that game. Last week he was out because of COVID. I was just very encouraged with what I saw from AB in week one. Yeah, I think he is Brady's little special pet reclamation project. I totally think that he just feels compelled to get this guy five to six targets. He's running a lot of deep routes on the field. He looks super explosive to me. He looks close to that AB that was one of the more dominant receivers in NFL history for nearly a decade plus. But, yeah, I think he looks good. I think this number's too low.

I think Brady's going to get him the ball. I would definitely go over. No way Brady doesn't throw for three scores. Right, Connor? Yeah. I mean, I don't know. I mean, if I'm watching the game, I want to bet the over. But, you know, like I think that that's – I like your points there on AB.

I mean, like especially him being the pet. I mean, he lived in Brady's basement I'm pretty sure for a little while. So, yeah, it's a pretty good call. He can't have hard around the kids. He's campaigned to bring them to New England. He campaigns to bring them to Tampa Bay. It's like through all that turmoil and controversy he's stuck with them. If you're willing to house like a legitimate psychopath like AB,

I think that you're probably going to be throwing them the ball on Sundays. So, yeah, I definitely like that one as well. I think the over're probably going to be throwing him the ball on Sundays. I definitely like that one as well. I think the over there is a good play. We got another one here. Cordell Patterson, 26 and a half receiving yards after the show last week. Was that our prop tool of the bet? Our prop tool of the week?

Tyson Williams receiving, wasn't it? Cordell was two weeks ago. Cordell was two weeks ago. Okay. I think we have him as a pretty nice number again. Tyson Williams receiving, wasn't it? Yeah, yeah. Cordell was two weeks ago. Cordell was two weeks ago. Okay. Yeah, I think we have him as a pretty nice number again. Let me see if I can find. Yeah, we do.

Our projection is nice because I considered it as well. He looked super explosive in the passing game. I mean, yeah, to me, he's much more explosive back compared to Mike Davis. Just getting the guy touches. He's actually like. Oh, my God. We even projected for 50. Wow. Yeah, he seemed to me like to pick up the nuances of playing the position.

Like, obviously, transitioning from like a punt-to-turner slash receiver hybrid, it was like very awkward to see him in the backfield for like the first few seasons. But to me, he actually looks like an actual NFL running back. And when he's on the field, they generate explosive plays and they move the ball. I think it's honestly like he should be out touching mike davis on a weekly basis so yeah i like this prop a lot personally we're getting there as far as like routes around and targets they're pretty they're pretty close um yeah i mean 50 is a is a pretty solid lean to the over uh you know basically you know double

what the what the number is so uh we feel pretty good about that one, Jonathan, if you want to jump on that one. We have a couple from Twitter as well. Sam Darnold over under 11.5 rushing yards. These are tough, right? These are the ones that are like, you know, Connor got bit with these a little bit the last week plus, right? Last night with the Samaj P. Ryan, the James Connor one last week,

where it basically comes down to a yes, no. Do they get the target? Do they get the ball? Darnold very easily could tuck and run to extend the play. The Dallas pass rush is better than we thought it would be with Micah Parsons and the way that he's playing, especially considering that they've lost their top three or three of their top four pass rushers before they transitioned their rookie linebacker to a

defensive end basically. But it's so hard to feel like really strong in your projection to be like, yes, he is going over this, you know, 11 and a half number. Our projection is pretty close. He's probably done it more times than not this year without bringing up our tool. But anyone have a lean on this one? Nope.

Yeah, I mean, what's funny is, friend of the show, Rahul, was all on the Sammy sleeves rushing over last week when it was at 6.5. Now, it's like the number's nearly doubled in, you know, a week. So, yeah, that's probably a bit steep for me. We haven't projected for nine rushing yards.

I think that it's just about right, like, you know, and I don't really have too strong of a lean here. We got a question about Jalen Hurts' passing yards, which we answered. Connor had that one. How about, Connor, your boy David Montgomery, over 17 and a half receiving yards? It was obviously a nice spot against the Lions. I know you'll be there with your Montgomery lower back tattoo and jersey. What do you think about this one?

Yeah, I actually don't mind that. He's been seeing, like, workhorse usage. So, like, after week one, like, where they kind of, like, played him in a lesser role and played Damian Williams in that passing role, he's been seeing, like like a lot bigger usage. So at 17 and a half, I think that's certainly viable. I'm a little bit scared at how anemic the Bears offense looked, you know, last week with fields at the helm. But and I think that there's, I think there's a real chance he starts this week again. And I kind of hope he does just because I want to watch something different than Andy Dalton in person. But, you know, if again, I think that, you know, Lafayette and then the show brought up a good point on our Wednesday show.

Like if you're the Bears and you just needed to win one game against the Lions today, who would you start a quarterback? And for me, the answer is probably Dalton, just because I think that there's less like downside and that he could at least turn in like competent play. Whereas Fields, I think it's way more upside, but like, I mean, last week was pure rock bottom. That was, it was rough.

Are you more inclined to lean over with Dalton behind center or fields? Yeah, I think, I think I'm more in class. The overs are set. Like fields is playing. It seems like, cause they're all like really low on all the receivers.

I think that I'm looking at maybe yards and yeah, I'm looking looking to bet some robinson if if dalton's a starter i'm definitely yeah that looks like an amazing number of dalton that's the nod so i think that's gonna be something to pay attention to uh you know like like asap like have the fantasy life app notifications or chef c push notifications on um because i know the people watching this are probably also the sickos who have those on as well um you know and just be ready to fire because i think that that number should is like a good 10 to 15 yards off what it should be if dalton's a starter yeah fantasy life app is actually really fast it's the best it is really really good like even if you're not into like you're not using it for fantasy news we're using it for we're using it for football news those push notifications come

really quickly so they beat schefter they do i mean outside of the ones they use Schefter for they beat they beat him and like all the other people by like sometimes minutes uh it's pretty wild it's worth a download for sure so um yeah our prop or our projection on Montgomery is 22 yards so we're kind of within the range for sure but yeah I mean I got bit – I had the double Robinson last week. I had receptions and yards, and those were just dunzo right away. But like you said, like if we get Dalton against this Lions secondary, like empty the clip, fire the cannons, you'd think he's – you know, his floor is probably 60 yards, I'd imagine, against the secondary.

So they have to do something to move the ball here. Mack Jones rushing yards, same conversation as Darnold's. We just flip faces. He ran a little bit yet last week, I suppose. I could see that. Any thoughts on J.D. McKissick over 20 and a half rushing and receiving yards with Gibson sitting out this week. Is Gibson sitting out?

I don't think he's sitting out. I don't think he's sitting out. Patrick McGrinder, I mean, I think he's not sitting out. At least I think he is limited, but I think he's going to play. Yeah, to me this is not a potentially McKissick-type game. I expect the Washington football team to dominate the line of scrimmage versus Atlanta. And, yeah, I don't expect them to be trailing,

which is obviously the type of game scripts that you see McKissick get more and more involved in. So, yeah, much like week one where he didn't really play much and you saw Gibson handle over 20 touches. If he's healthy, I expect Gibson to be a workhorse and have a lot of carries. So yeah, I would actually look the other way on this one. I took an L on JD McKissick receiving yards last week. I would make that play again every single time. Game went exactly as I would want it to go.

He had topped it every time. It just didn't happen. He just didn't see the targets that he typically sees for whatever reason. And that's my point earlier that I made about Connor. Sometimes we deal with these receiving yard numbers for running backs, and it's like there are some – A lot of variance. Yeah, a lot of variance. It's proof of concept maybe for a couple of weeks.

We saw the week one for Jonathan Taylor, right? Eight catches on nine targets 60 something yards they hang out like 18 and a half for him in week two and he doesn't even get to like I don't even think it was 12 it was 12 oh now he likes to he like had the huge week one usage as well in the receiving game and then neither back was like barely combined it's like they wanted to showcase Marlon Mack for trades. They went back and like watched the tape and were just like, yeah, we can't do this ever again. Like they're like, we can't throw the running back 15 times.

50% of the time, yeah. Like half of the attempts were to Taylor and Heinz. And then, yeah, they barely got targeted in the second game. We touched briefly on the Robinson number over 52 and a half contingent on the quarterback situation there. How about Diggs, 83 and a half? There's a lot of underlying metrics that make you feel good about digs we saw a kind of a coming out party this year for josh allen last week there's a lot to like there even last week and again positive game script they were up big they're still just chucking like beasley was

pepper with targets we saw deep targets to Emmanuel Sanders it feels like it's only a matter of time for for Diggs um Alex do you have any any thoughts on this one yeah obviously a great matchup yeah great matchup Husions is the type of secondary that he can just uh destroy their zone defense yeah I would expect Allen to continue throwing a lot Diggs hasn't had a Diggs game yet and I I know that's just on the cusp of happening, I would say, if it's going to happen this week. So, yeah, I would definitely look over on that. I expect to have a huge week.

Yeah, they just continue throwing. They keep on stepping on your neck, and I love that. When you're playing their overs and you have their receiving props, it's obviously very positive when they're in the second, late into the third quarter, early fourth quarter with a three-touchdown league, and they're not even rushing the ball. Connor, I was told Diggs was going to have a good year. Yeah, I don't know who told you that.

It might have been some false information. I don't know. I think that in this spot, though, that number is about right. I mean, it's like 85. I think that that's very easily going to go either way. He'll definitely have a good game. It's more so like what if Buffalo is winning like 30-6, you know, I think that that's very easily could go either way. You know, he'll definitely have a good game. It's more so like, what if Buffalo is winning like 30 to six, you know what I mean?

Like in the third quarter, which I think is very much a reasonable outcome. You know, like Diggs probably won't even be playing. And so, you know, those are my only my concerns is that like he could rack up like 85 or 80 yards in the first half, you know, easily. And I just don't know if that like that's a little bit concerning to me um i think that i would be looking for something a little bit more volatile

with a higher payout maybe if you can get like a digs over 100 receiving yards of plus money something like that um but yeah i agree with everything you said though i think that this is this is a good matchup for him and he he will have some better game sam hoppin over at four four has done some great research on why septic is actually a good buy low in fantasy. And I think in the prop market too, maybe if he has another slower game this week and we can start to see his prop strip drop into the 70s, I think there's going to be some great buying opportunities here coming up.

Yeah, good call there for sure. We touched briefly on Jacoby Myers' receiving yards, over five and a half catches. And that's about where I think our projection is. It'll take over six, which I think is probably a little light, to be honest. So I can understand if someone wanted to back Myers here. Again, 14 targets last week, caught nine of them. Negative game script. We kind of expect this very similar spot there.

So I get behind that. And Dawson Knox over 23 23.5 receiving yards. We have a 39.6 projection for Knox there, so we feel pretty good about that one. You guys have a lean on either of those. I think, Alex, I'm guessing you probably like the Myers one. Yeah, I back the Myers one for sure. I think he's going to have double-digit targets.

He's running a lot of high-percentage routes, closest line of scrimmage. So, yeah, I expect him to be featured in the passing game. And, yeah, as far as Knox is concerned, I don't have a strong lean one way or the other on him. Do you, Connor? So, actually, so this is interesting. I just looked it up on our player prop explorer tool here,

which looks at the frequency. So, from week 13 on, he has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in every game except for week 2 against Miami. Now, we have projected for 40 receiving yards this week. Pretty substantial sample

there, at least. That's 6, 7, 8. We've got the dog chiming in the background too. He's a fan. Yeah, exactly. She's all the dog chiming in the background too. He's a fan. Yeah, exactly. She's all about the Dawson knocks over. So I might have to put a little play on that on the dog narrative alone. You can get behind that.

Kadarius Tony. Going to get some run this week, right? Everyone else is out. Slayton's out. Shepard's out. Tough matchup against the Saints. But let me see if i can find our projection what do you i would say so he actually followed the same guy follow up isn't he a clear wide receiver too now i would say that evan ingram will be the wide receiver too um if well you know technically the the second targeted

pass catcher with maybe even saquon being the third most targeted pass catcher beyond that. And then he'll probably be like fourth. So, yeah, I wouldn't say that 28 and a half looks nice. And hypothetically, you know, he's definitely the second wide receiver at this point. But in terms of target share, I think that the other two guys that I mentioned might, you know, outperform him. So I think that's kind of my scare.

Yeah, we're under on that projection. We actually have a bigger number for Colin Johnson. I was impressed with Colin Johnson last week. Yeah. We grabbed a bunch of Colin Johnson in best ball. I thought he was going to have a role in Jacksonville. So if he wants to get it together with the Giants, I'll take some of those late Colin Johnson sprinkles.

All right. Time for the prop tool, prop of the week. We've been rolling here so far. This is something that you should be tailing. I know that to take you behind the scenes a little bit, we had one lined up, and then unbeknownst to producer Sal, that was one of Connor's, it was a Jalen Waddle prop, which has a 100% hit rate.

But Sal is leaning on the tool to leverage us and get us to where we want to be. So let's see what we got this week. Let's go, Sal. Vibing. All right, what do we got here? Ooh, Alvin Kamara. Alvin Kamara under 76.5 rushing yards. We have a projection at 62.5.

This is showing a really nice value when you consider the price here. Yeah, I mean, we talked about this a little bit on the wednesday show with laffey where we're talking about usage for kamara but um alex what are your initial thoughts on this one i love this actually this correlates to a play i wrote about in my column i'm actually backing tony jones jr this. I think that he is going to have a larger workload than he has in the previous two games. We saw in week one where he had double-digit carries, and he's, I think, had three carries

and then two carries over the last two weeks. So, yeah, with the Saints being significant favorites over a touchdown, I believe the spread is 7.5, 7.5-point favorites. So, yeah, I think that Kamara's coming off a 27-touch game last week. In his career, Kamara's average, I want to say, 12 touches per game. This season he's up to, I believe, it's close to 19 touches per game. Massive workload last week.

They just cannot – Kamara, they're not going to be able to ride him to that degree there's going to have to be just Tony Jones Jr. is you know obviously correlates you but yeah there's just going to have to be other options and I just don't think it's a long-term viable plan to give Kamara or any back for that matter and rely on someone for 25 plus touches a game so yeah I like this a lot I I like it, Connor. And Leans here? Yeah, I mean, I would lean under, like it says, but I guess my concern is kind of like what, you know, we did mention on the Wednesday show is that it looks like Kamara

and this offense as a whole has basically changed from what we've seen in the past. So, like, last year, you know, Kamara was kind of used as, like, I mean, it got its name, like the Kamara role, which is, you know, 10 to 12 early down touches with a lot of pass-catching work. And that was kind of been his role for the last few years. Now it looks like with James at the helm, like they're scared to kind of let him like free and they want to run the ball. So whether it be with Kamara or Tony Jones, I agree with Alex that, you know, it should probably be more of a mix and be like, you know, 15 ish touches for

carries for Kamara and, you know, seven to tony jones um and that i think makes a little bit more sense but again that's like one of those do they do that uh like is this the week is this something they start to pivot towards that um those are questions that i don't really have the answer to or have too strong of a feel on uh but i do think that it's not a long-term feasible solution like alex said um i'm just not sure when it happens and it once it will start to happen because there's no way that Alvin Kamara holds up like 25 carries a week for the rest of the season. But right now, I mean, they're winning and they're playing pretty well. And I think that it's tough for them to change their game plan right now

immediately. So I think that for me, lean under but tentative. Yeah, I agree. I agree. I think he also is one of those dudes he's so dynamic with the ball his hands with his ability to break tackles and stuff like he can he can blow this up with unlimited carries against the giants team that we think is fraudulent um does not have blake martinez a linebacker anymore he's out for the year with the torn acl so i would i would lean under two,

but it's not one that I hate. It does scream at you. This is our player prop tool. If this is the first time you've seen this, this is available with a betting subscription at 444.com. Again, the betting sub gets you access to everything on the site, including our projections and all of our tools. This big, bright green screaming value just kind of stares at you when you open it for sure. But again, Connor and I sound like I've been reluctant when we saw that staring at us for these very reasons. But hey, Sal has been on a roll. So far be it for me to say we need to start fading the tool at this point. This could be another spot for the tool to get on the board.

So good one, Sal. Well done. All right, Sal. Well done. All right, fellas, that does it for another prop drop episode. Again, don't forget to find Alex on Twitter at prop stars, uh,

firing off just winners all the time. Again, you can find us as well at move the line NFL. Uh, we will be back for week five on Wednesday, uh, on Thursday in your podcast feed, going game by game breakdown, and then the three of us will be back

here in the same spot a week from today. So for Alex and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you next week. ... ... ...... you