Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 5 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: October 9, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus introducing third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, the trio discusses their top Week 5 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 5 Prop Drop Intro 2:54 Connor Prop No. 1 3:50 Ryan Prop No. 1 5:15 Alex Prop No. 1 9:46 Connor Prop No. 2 11:45 Ryan Prop No. 2 13:26 Alex Prop No. 2 14:48 Connor Prop No. 3 17:00 Ryan Prop No. 3 18:04 Alex Prop No. 3 20:06 Connor Prop No. 4 22:09 Ryan Prop No. 4 24:00 Alex Prop No. 4 26:24 Twitter Questions 52:17 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 55:06 Week 4 Prop Drop Outro 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show presented by WinBets. Don't forget, download the WinBet app today and a promo code four for four receive a risk-free thousand dollar bets i am ryan noonan joining me as always in this space connor allen what's going on buddy uh not much man excited to get back at it i think we had a pretty good week last week uh on the show and just in general i mean it was solid to get back back to it and our winning ways it felt good good we had some good winners uh prop stars here as well continuing to kill it what's going on alex what's up ryan what's up connor i'm stoked to be here do you guys get hype when you hear the intro music i love that dude yeah it gets me ready i love the

intro music we have some uh we have some haters detractor we have one loud detractor out there he's the only hater um but he's you know he uh would like us to mix it up he doesn't like the laugh but he needs to get with the program because i hear it i'm like yeah it's time for business we're ready to cash some tickets and win some bets he's old you know he's a grumpy old man who uh yeah he gets mad about the laugh in the intro you know he gets mad about the he's he's like man you guys just got to do better he's like you're bigger than that i'm like no you know what we're sticking to our roots. This is, it gets people hyped. It gets the people going, you know?

This is year four for us doing Move the Line. This is our first year doing the prop show. But, you know, that's been our intro beats from the jump. And, you know, got to stay on brand. If it's not broken, right? We don't fix it. Exactly. We can't change it because one dude wants it changed.

One boomer. One thing is a boomer. He is definitely a boomer. Fast forward 20 seconds in and we start talking and you don't even have to worry about it. As mentioned, we do have a Wednesday show. We have our game-by-game breakdowns midweek. Connor and I bring on some folks around the industry to basically talk more sides and totals. This with Alex and Propstars in his zone of genius.

We don't share it with anybody. We just keep Alex on in his space. And we talk about props. We talk about props that hopefully while you're listening, you can actually be in your app, on your tab, whatever your book is, on the phone with your guy, however you do it. You can be placing these bets while we're talking about it. So you can find both shows on our YouTube page along with podcast form,

wherever you can find podcasts as well, rate and review. If you have the time, we really appreciate that. It helps other people find us as well. You can also find some details in our show notes, 444.com slash plans, how to get access to some of the tools we're going to talk about today and getting our betting sub over at 444 so let's jump into it gentlemen connor get us started let me know what's your first bet yeah so my first one uh trevor lawrence over 243 and a half passing yards i think this is at draft kings right now minus 115 we talked about on the wednesday show a little bit here but um i think that the Jaguars are a little bit live here. And, you know, after coming off their, you know,

game against Cincinnati where they looked a lot better, I think Trevor Lawrence is finally starting to get it together. Averaged nearly over eight and a half yards per attempt. Completed 70% of his passes last time against the Cincinnati defense, which I think we're coming around on to be pretty good. And right now the Titans that he plays this week, 26 in EPA overall, 28th in explosive pass rate allowed. And, you know, they have not looked good so far this season.

So I'm on the over there and I like Lawrence to kind of continue his upward, you know, upward trajectory here. And I think that, you know, like 250, 260 yards is no problem for him in this spot. That's a good call. I like it. I have something later that correlates with that, so it makes me feel good that you're back in the Lawrence play there.

I'm going to go with the quarterback under. I'm on Matt Ryan under 265.5 passing yards. That's available at points bet at minus 115. This feels like about 20, 25 yards too high. Obviously, obviously calvin ridley out we've really seen the splits i know connor's talked about it often like the even the julio splits that we've seen with matt ryan it's just it's a different quarterback and now we're going overseas kind of out of their norm as far as you know structure of a week and you're taking out, really hasn't been dynamic like we've seen in the past, but he's still seeing wide receiver, one alpha type work,

and now we're pulling him out of there. And surprisingly, the Jets' defense has been actually decent against the pass so far this season. Matt Ryan waited until last week to attempt and complete a pass 20 yards more down the field. It was kind of a broken play, really, even to Cordell Patterson. It's not even necessarily something that they're scheming up. So now you're looking at Olamide Zaccheaus

and hopefully the ghost of Kyle Pitts. I don't know really what they're rolling out there, but 265 for Matt Ryan feels way too high. Yeah, I like that a lot. I think our projections have been like 220. 220 change, yeah. Insane. Yeah, it's gross so anytime we can uh find an under especially we have that much of a margin in the projection field pretty strongly about that one so alex what's your first one yeah i totally like that one as well i think it traveling overseas and the atlanta offensive line ryan has

not looked good yeah it just seems like a perfect storm to fade him right now. So, yeah, I'm totally with that one, Ryan. So, yeah, my first prop is James Conner over 33.5 rushing yards. I actually put this one in when we pre-put our picks in before the show goes on, and this was at 37.5. Obviously, I saved this prop for the show, and then I checked it a few minutes prior to us going on air, and it's down to 33.5, which is absolutely awesome news.

So, yeah, James Conner over 33.5 rushing yards at minus 115 at DraftKings. The ex-Steeler has taken on, obviously, almost near a 50-50 roll as far as early down work is concerned, next to Chase Edmonds in the Cardinals' backfield to start the season through four games. He's looked really solid. He's gone over in three of those four games. He's averaging 57 rushing yards per game. He matches up pretty well against a 49ers defense. That's allowing four and a half yards per carry. Connor's averaging 30, excuse me, 13.25 carries per game.

I expect him to see a lot of involvement on the game on Sunday. Yeah, I have him projected in the high 50s. I also like this play because Chase Edmonds is dinged up. A lot of involvement on the game on Sunday. Yeah, I have him projected in the high 50s. I also like this play because Chase Edmonds is dinged up. We don't know if he's actually going to play. There's a chance he doesn't. I know he's going to be listed as questionable. If he does suit up, it appears like he's not going to be 100%.

So I do think there's also a chance that the game plan could involve some more James Conner this week. And he looks to me like vintage James Conner, like the running back that the Steelers had and was very productive. Furthermore, I think we had official confirmation that Trey Lance is starting for the 49ers on Sunday, which tells me the Cardinals are five-point favorites. There could be some positive game script here. I think the Cardinals are a better team. I could see them leading in this game, potentially going up double digits, leaning on their run game, who seems to be the preferred option is Connor in that situation compared to Edmonds, who handles most of the receiving duties. So yeah, I also want to point out six different running backs have gone over this total against San Francisco. Six different players, excuse me, five running

backs have gone over this total against San Francisco. One of those players was Jalen Hurts, but yeah, I think this number is way too low. 33 and a half yards, I think is a steal. Yeah. I mean, I like that one a lot too, especially like adding onto that right now, San Francisco's run defense, 28th in explosive run rate and just 21st in success rate allowed. So it's not like they're, you know, the stout unit that their brand name gets. You know, they're a little bit more susceptible than we think. And correlates well, like you said, Alex, with the game script, right? Because we've seen a pretty clear delineation of how those two backs are being used. Obviously, it's clear if something happens with Edmonds here and he's not involved,

but in a game where they're five, five and a half point favorites at home, sets up for a more of a Connor spot as well. I gave this actually a long look yesterday because I wanted to double down. I took a small piece of the Cardinals at four early in the week when it was kind of moving around. So yeah, I think 33 is a really nice number. I think we have a pretty strong lean on that over too.

Yeah. Also another note to the listeners, this is one of those situations where if James Connor does, or if a chase Edmonds does sit, like it should be a multi-unit play on James Connors overs like immediately. Absolutely. You know,

and a lot of like services, including ourselves, it's really tough to be like that fast. Cause you usually have like about two to two minutes. And I recommend downloading the fantasy life app or having a Schefter's push notifications on and that'll keep you updated as fast as possible because that'll beat DraftKings

and you'll have about a minute to two minutes to bet the over there and that should be like, you know, a couple unit play in my opinion. Yeah, no, that's a good call. Same thing if you're, you know, a subscriber with us at 444, like be in the Discord.

Like if you are, we have a disproportionate number of subscribers and Discord members like there's there are people that are subscribing to our betting sub that aren't involved in the discord i know it's not for everyone but you can set it up where like connor's made it really easy where you can get those push notifications and we've actually even started letting our subscribers know hey we're about to make a bet. It's coming. Here's the book.

So that way, before we push it, you can be ready on the book. And when it hits, you can take action. It's the best that we can do because we're trying to get to the number as well. But we want to try to make sure, like we like to have a community wins whenever that's possible. So yeah, the Fantasy Life app,

I highly recommend because to Connor's point, it is faster than a lot of things out there. So Connor, your second bet, bat buddy yeah so my second one uh i know it's a little bit low here already but i miles gaskin under 20 and a half rushing yards is at draft games i was kind of surprised to see this even drop like at all um you know after last week he saw a major dip in playing time relatively you know inexplicably. Played just 23% of the snaps, saw two carries. Now the Dolphins are 10-point underdogs against Tampa Bay run defense, which is top five in DVOA and EPA and adjusted line yards allowed,

who is matching up against the Miami offensive line, which is not very good at all. So the game script is going to be going against them. They're not motivated to run the ball given the situation. And Gaskin saw a major dip in playing time. I don't know if that's necessarily going to be going against them. They're not motivated to run the ball, given the situation and Gaskin saw a major different playing time. You know, I don't know if that's necessarily going to stick, but even if he ends up in the five to six carry range,

getting over 20 yards is a lot like that's a struggle for him. So unless he be, you know, reverts back to being like the, you know, lead back there all of a sudden and, you know, Tampa Bay lets up a little bit in the run defense.

I really liked this under here. Talked about this one on the Wednesday show. Basically, if we were to get any Miami running back props to jump on the unders, it makes a lot of sense. Malcolm Brown out there as well. That is, I think, pretty viable as well. You got that, Alex? Yeah, I actually called in my weekly column that I read for Sportsline

was I think the number's down to as low as 6.5 now, but I called Malcolm Brown under 8.5 rushing attempts. I'm also, same line of thought. I agree, all those unders look... I'm debating on playing the under on both rushing yards, to be honest, just because I think that there's a chance that one of them has a better day, but I don't know. Maybe that

kind of just probably screams push. I think that, for me, Gaskin just saw the most decrease recently, and we don't really know what's going on. Maybe's in the doghouse maybe something happened i don't know but i'm probably riding that one to be honest air ball in the passing game too is this really weird usage strange for him last week so yeah no i i get it i take the dolphins team under like there's lots of unders wherever you can get on Miami, I think. Next for me, Devontae Adams, over 88.5 receiving yards, minus 114 on FanDuel.

I mean, dude just doesn't go back-to-back games with less than 100 yards. It hasn't happened. Going back to last year, week six, when he came back after the ankle injury, he more times than not, he's topping this number. But anytime he dips below 100, he comes back with a big one as well the next week. Really, if you kind of think about how this game is going to go, there's a chance that Jair Alexander is out for Green Bay. That's a problem. We're pretty bullish on what we've seen from the Bengals so far,

and they could be without Joe Mixon. So even though we've been a little disappointed, they've been efficient, but we haven't liked necessarily the pass rate over expectation. They've been throwing more on early downs than what we would expect. I think the combination of Mixon likely out, Alexander likely out, I feel like the path to least resistance for the Green Bay offense is probably through the air. And the target share

and market share of air yards that davante adams sees is obviously astronomical um this is one of those numbers where it seems high but like the dude can get there in the half um he just absolutely dominates um mvs probably out again as well so we're really not having to worry about like big plays from randall cobb or anything like that you So, you know, so we'll, we'll see Adams be massively featured in this game. That's could be a slow pace game, but in totals have been just steamed up throughout the week. It's up into the, you know, the low fifties now after being, you know, starting in the upper 40. So like Adams, anytime we can get them, I took plus money on his receptions as well, but love this number. That's still out there on FanDuel right now at minus 114.

All right, Alex, your next one, buddy. Stay with the Packers. Yep, sticking with the Packers, Ryan. So my next one is A.J. Dillon over six and a half rushing attempts. This one's a little bit juicy. It's minus 145. I checked on MGM, but I'm riding with it. Yeah, Dillon is coming off of a breakout performance last week against the Steelers.

He handled 15 carries. He looked really good doing so, finishing with 81 yards on the ground. Aaron Jones has been banged up for the last two weeks. He's been on the injury report. He's been questionable. I do expect him to play, but he's obviously playing through an ankle injury. He's been limited in practice, like I mentioned. I just expect the Packers definitely want to manage his touches,

not overwork him this early in the season. He handled a lot of touches early on in the first few weeks. We also know that Aaron Jones handles all of the receiving work in Green Bay's backfield, so it does make sense for them to, for me at least, to continue to feature Dylan Moore in the early down rolls. Yeah, I'm also expecting Green Bay to take care of business versus Cincinnati. I know Ryan had mentioned this could be a slower-paced game, but they're only three-point favorites.

I just like Green Bay to get up in this game. I don't think it makes sense to overwork Aaron Jones. And, yeah, I think A.J. Dillon is a very good bet to have at least seven carries. Yeah, if it's garbage time, he ate last week in garbage time. They definitely were conservative with Jones in that role. Connor, number three. Yeah, so my third bet is Zach Ertz over two and a half receptions. We played this a little bit earlier in the week.

I did at least at minus 105, but now all the way up to minus 130. I think this should be even three, three and a half, to be honest, at this point, so it's more than playable still. So Ertz has seen his target share increase every week this season, and his routes run have nearly doubled last week. So, so far, his target share each week, 7%, 9%, 17%, then 19% last week. Routes run 15, 14, 23, and then 30 last week. He has seven and eight targets each of the last two weeks as well. I mean, the Eagles right now second and pass right over expectation.

The Panthers are 10th. So I expect this game to be, you know, a little bit faster paced and a little bit more plays run than normal. And so Ertz in this point just seems to kind of be building on his role rather than what we thought, which is, you know, him kind of turning to dust and fading away. Like he kind of just seems to be going the other way here and is playing more and more and is trusted by Jalen Hurts.

For me, if he's getting even in the 5-6 target range, looking at over 2.5 receptions is more than comfortable for me. I like the over there a lot. I mean, he's playing more than Goddard. His targets per outrun are higher. Just raw target

percentage is higher. Average depth of target is higher. Air yards share like you know like you said we you thought he was going to be traded or kicked to the curb and it was going to be dallas goddard's team and now it's you know goddard's still involved but urts is like still still heavily involved too so it's a good call it's one of those things where i don't think the sports books have like adjusted yet to like his actual role you know what i mean like i think that it's coming and they're going to keep adjusting but like he should probably have three to four catches every week for the next you know handful of weeks and until they adjust the line to like three and a half or four

i'm going to probably just keep hitting the overs last week it was like 20 receiving us we points about the over in our in our group chat it was a nice like 40 something x cash right there so that was great yeah do you want to add to that alex no i yeah i love that as well you guys mentioned um snap count and when he's on the field they are just passing the ball pretty much primarily so yeah i these this role is expanded every week um yeah i think that's a great play i agree it should be between three and a half or up to four so yeah i love it as well my next one is Manny Sanders, over 51.5 receiving yards. This is also on FanDuel at minus 114. Consistently strong role, even though he really wasn't showing up in the box score

in the first week or two, running around at 88% of the snaps so far. 17.5 averaged at the target, leads the team. So does his 30% target or air yard share as well, which you've got to love to see in a game like this it's 56 and a half total on sunday night against kansas city which has the worst defense in the league right now they are just um across the board giving it up um really slowing no one down and uh want to be buying sanders anywhere we can he's been targeted on 17 of the routes which is you know they kind of

balance it out, but really only Arizona is running four receivers more than Buffalo is, but Sanders is involved in two receiver sets there as well. So we'd love to see it take advantage of anything that we can get on Kansas city side. Our projections have him at 72. So we're getting a basically 20 yard bump here. Feel pretty good about that one. Alex, what's your next one? Love that one, Ryan. Yeah, so my next one is Sammy Watkins over three and a half catches. This is currently plus 100 after DraftKings. Yeah, I'm buying in on this new high-volume passing attack via Lamar Jackson. They have all the backfield injuries we know about. They're relying more on their passing game more than ever. Watkins leads

the team in targets and target share. He has four catches in all four games. He looks really comfortable in the offense to me. He's healthy. He's had at least seven targets in each individual game. Rashad Bateman on the shelf. He's playing a full-time role in two wide receiver sets. Yeah, I just love what I look. I've seen from him. He just looks like a natural fit in the offense with the amount of attention. Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews commands. It puts Watkins in this really favorable, advantageous situation. So, yeah, I just love that we're getting plus money on this.

I'm all in on Watkins over three and a half catches. I'm on anything that gets a win for the Ravens on Monday night. We need that one. Yeah, big time. I tailed your look at it there, minus six and a half. My man, look at you. Yeah, let's go. Me and J.D. actually. I tailed your look at it there. Minus six and a half. My man! Look at you! Me and JD, I actually put some in for Daigle as well. My FanDuel account's

looking a little thin because we went so heavy on it. It's alright. I think it'll be worth it. It'll all come back. It'll all come back Monday night. Maybe Tuesday morning with FanDuel. It'll come back. The more I think about that game, honestly, the more I think that the Ravens are just going to steamroll them. Third straight road game for the Colts.

Yeah, and, I mean, we're pretty down on them as a team in general. Like, I think the Ravens win by, like, 21. You know, like, I think it could be a massive win. Could be a massive win. All right, before we – we have one more to go. Before we do, if you're watching, jump in the chat. Let us know if you have anything after we get through this next round of props. We want to handle any questions that you have.

So if there's something that you're considering out there right now, let us know. We're going to take some questions at the end, fire off our thoughts, and let you know if that's something that you should be firing at or something we want to tail or any thoughts on it. We're happy to give you some confirmation bias on stuff you've already been as well. So, Connor, bring us home with your last one. Yeah, so this one, I didn't realize that we were going to have so many Packers ones. I guess I did.

I just wasn't paying too much attention to the show sheet. But Alan Lazard, under two and a half receptions. So in four games this season, and you find this a plus money, by the way, DraftKings, it's available like plus 130, I think, at this point. So in four games this season, he has a combined five receptions, despite playing 65% of the snaps. He's yet to record more than two receptions in a game. And I get that, you know,

MBS is sidelined and people anticipate the Lazard's role to increase, but really we saw the biggest role increase from Randall Cobb. You know, Lazard only saw three targets on 36 pass attempts from Aaron Rodgers last week, despite playing 79% of the snaps. I think this kind of goes back to the whole theory behind like why players are targeted. And I think a lot of it said like players are targeted because they earn targets, like because they get open or because they have trust with the quarterback. And that's like targets are

generally or oftentimes a barometer of skill, especially in the longterm. And right now we're just not seeing it from Lazard. And so I think in this spot here, I like the under at plus money. We haven't projected for 1.4 reception. So for him to get to three, I think he only sees four targets max and probably two to three. So there's a chance he isn't even targeted three times. So I like the under there

a lot as well. That son of a gun owes you too. I was going to say I have massive respect for you, Connor, not being afraid to go back to the well, not being deterred after we had Lazar under, obviously, a cash. I loved the play at the time. I love this play, but yeah, I have massive respect for

that. Watch now, he's going to catch like five two-yard passes or something like that, you know what I mean? I saw he was over under 33 yards, but I was like, can't do that. Can't do that. Yeah, Cobb's going to get hurt, and I saw he's over under 33 yards, but I was like, can't do that. Can't do that. Yeah, Cobb's going to get hurt, and then Lazard's going to come in and get peppered on one drive and then barely play any more shots.

Oh, man, we don't need to bring that up again. Yeah. It's a running thing right now on my bets. Yeah, he's due. He's due to give you some money back. We're going to get some Lazard cash back into Conor's wallet this week, and you can double down on that Baltimore Monday nighttimore monday night one get it all back at one fell swoop uh my last one here liviska chanel over 57 and a half receiving yards

available still minus 115 at mgm i took a 50 or i took a 56 and a half on tuesday there's some 58 and a halves out there depending depending on your book. I would take that anywhere really under 60 confidently. Obviously DJ Shark out of the picture, target tree condensing around Visca and Marvin Jones. We're going to see a little mix of basically Tavon Austin and Jamal Agnew, probably in what had been in the past, the Chenault role. Because if you look at how chanel was used on thursday night when shark went down it was basically in the shark role um his target share has gone from 21 to 12 all the way up to 33 on that game averaged up the target of the same went from 5.6 6.3 all the way to4. So again, being used massively and being used down the field as a field stretcher

more than this like Athelina Strimmets guy, which we'd love to see. Lots of good coach speak coming out from Daryl Bevel and Urban Meyer, which we'd love to see. Again, even if the ADOT kind of falls back into like the 7.5, 8 range, and he's going to see a target share north of 20 or even at 20, he should get there comfortably against the Titans. Past defense at 28th and past success rate allowed. There's really nothing there that scares us.

Could be negative game script, 48-point total. Love Visca anywhere you can get him. I took his overruns receptions at four and a half. That's gone. But I think he's a big, big part of the game plan this week. Alex, bring us home, buddy. Yeah, so my last one might not be the most popular selection of the night, but

I'm riding with it. It's Jacoby Brissett, over 237 and a half passing yards. Playing Tampa Bay, we saw Dak throw for over 400. Matt Ryan had 300. Stafford went for 343. And last week, Mac Jones, 275.

Brissette has not been great this season. But if there was ever a matchup to back him, I feel it's this one. Tampa Bay is giving up the most receiving yards per game. First and passing attempts per opposing passing attempts per game. Opponent completions per game. Some of the projections that I really trust has him projected in the mid-270s, so this is obviously a huge edge and partially why I'm backing him. Miami's a 10-point dog.

The game projects to be a perfect game script for Brissette to air the ball out of the ton. The only scenario I see Miami competitive in this game is if they're throwing the ball a lot. We know how stout the Bucs are up front. Connor mentioned first in DVOA and rushing. I don't even think they're throwing the ball a lot, we know how stout the Bucs are up front. Connor mentioned first in DVOA and rushing. I don't even think they're going to attempt. We're also backing all these under rushing attempts and rushing yards for various Dolphin running backs.

But yeah, I don't even expect Miami to attempt to run the ball very much against this Tampa Bay front. So yeah, I'm going with Brissette over 237 and a half passing yards. That was a minus 115. Yeah, I don't hate that. I got a piece of Devontae Parker over 52 and a half. I know there's some questions on if he plays. I feel like he probably will. I think they have to have him out there,

so managing him in practice makes sense because otherwise it's Walla and Gusecki. I don't know what they're going to be rolling out there so making managing him in practice makes sense because otherwise it's wall and gasecki like i don't know what they're going to be rolling out there um little preston williams for the first time preston williams to dust him off because you know yeah i don't know what's left maybe gaskins in the slot so we don't want to use uh any of those under they might put you in the slot runner and if uh you take it man you I got the size. These hands are pretty solid. You know, I played flag for a few years. I'm ready to go. My cleats are upstairs.

And Connor always makes me play soccer. I've been trying to get the guys to play flag football for a while. So I'm glad you could see it, Alex. I'm going to play some flag football as well. I still got it. Yeah, I'm into it too. Probably not tackle. I have too many recreational injuries at this point in my life for being my age. Yeah.

No, not enough recreational drugs for that. That's why you guys have to come to Portland. Exactly. I mean, if that's an invitation, I'll be there in a couple of weeks, so don't worry. Love to see it. All right. A couple of questions that we have from Twitter earlier.

We have Matt Ryan from Sableyezer. Love to see it. All right. A couple questions that we had from Twitter earlier. We have Matt Ryan from Sableizer. I'm not sure what that is. Matt Ryan, over a half of an interception. I know it's not a sexy play, but I like it. What are your thoughts? These binary plays are not necessarily my favorite thing per se. Connor, do you have a thought on Matt Ryan over a half of an interruption?

I mean, yeah, I guess kind of what you're saying makes sense. So far this year he has three in week two and then none in the rest. So, I mean, if that's your thing, you know, go for it. But I don't really think that it's like there's much of a lean. I'd love to hear the reasoning behind why. But I don't know. It's just not something that I could really get behind. Yeah. Alex, any leans here, buddy?

Yeah, I agree with both of what you guys said. Furthermore, I did see someone mention in regards to interceptions in both of these games. I don't think the Falcons or the Jets' defense have yet to record an interception. So I saw that as a reason why someone was backing this play earlier. So, again, that's not enough data for me to get behind something. But, yeah. Yeah. Again, bad secondary for New York.

Like, you know, the corners aren't good. You know, it's just not a place where I feel like we're kind of trying to short Matt Ryan passing ours too. Maybe they're less aggressive with pass plays here too. So again, unless you feel you got like a really strong lean there, I'd probably stay away from something like that. Leonardo, what are your thoughts on Winston under 17 and a half completions? Two-part question. So we'll start with that. Jameis under 17 and a half completions doesn't feel like a lot, Connor.

Let me look and see real quick where we have our projections at for Jameis. So we have him actually projected at 18.8, but the last four weeks he's been under that number by a decent amount. I think last week he was right at 17. So, I mean, he's gone under four straight weeks, and now given the matchup, I mean, I don't know, probably a lean under, but not something I would jump to play. Yeah, Alex, you had a lean? Yeah, I would lean under as well. Yeah, I don't think this matchup necessarily is a friendly

one for him. I expect more of the same from the Saints. Just a heavy Camaro-based game script. Lots of rushing. I think they're going to continue to minimize Winston. I would lean under, but not a strong play either way

or feeling either way. Also, he's got a question on Pittman, over four and a half receptions on Pittman. Alex, we failed. We didn't get Pittman props this week. Where are the Pittman props? The one we take off, I'm worried about Marlon Humphrey. I think he's going to see a lot of him in coverage. To me, Marlon Humphrey is the best cover corner in the NFL.

If he's not, he's one of the three or four guys. He's criminally underrated or probably not underrated in sharp circles. But, yeah, I think he's going to be following Pittman around all over the NFL. If he's not, he's one of the three or four guys. He's criminally underrated or probably not underrated in sharp circles. But, yeah, I think he's going to be following Pittman around all over the field. I think he's a tremendous cover corner. I think this is a spot where one of the only spots with Pittman at this number, well, I do think it's a friendly number. I'm personally avoiding it. He probably just gets five and then calls it a day because he's Pittman

and he knows he's out here to cash overs. But, yeah, I think it's a light day with the Colts. Again, part of it was I stayed away, I had said earlier in our chat, because someone asked me where is the MF and Pittman bets, and I said I emotionally want to hedge anything that has to do with backing the Colts in that spot because if things go well on Sunday,'m going to really need the uh need the Ravens in a big way and I don't want to be cheering for anything Colts related we're saving Pittman for next week well yeah we'll put him in our pocket and uh yeah wait till he gets back home on the fast turf um another question from

Twitter before we jump into some of these YouTube ones uh LaVisca rushing prop over one and a half yards. Again, some of these are just – it basically doesn't get a handoff. It happens often. Similar to like Bob Boyd's. These are tough. But, again, knowing that there's just fewer mouths to feed in Jacksonville, I could see the case for it. Alex, do you have a thought on this one?

I personally would look the other way, Ryan, just because you had mentioned how he is going to be taking on more of Chark's role. True. From that standpoint, I would expect him to be used less closer to the line of scrimmage. I know the manufacturer touches a lot for him when he was playing in the slot. But, yeah, he's probably going to be running his routes deeper down the field. I expect a deeper A-dot. So, yeah, I don't think they're going to need to necessarily be creative with him

like they have been in the past to get the ball in his hands. If he is, and it does, like after seeing, it was very encouraging after seeing after Tark went down how he kind of assumed his role to a T. So, yeah, I'd actually think that this would be a week to avoid that prop unless you had a, you know, strong lean on it. But, yeah, I'd look to no or under. Yeah. It's hard to have a strong lean on it.

I think that's probably the point, too. But I think you make a really good case. So, all right, we'll jump into some of these here. We've got Brandon Ayuk over on three and a half receptions. Interesting, obviously, now with George Kittle out of the lineup here. We can see we actually, our projections are updated without Kittle. Again, he's just been limited. He's really sharing work with like Trenton Shurfield,

which is just really bizarre. Alex, do you have a lean on Ayuk getting more of a role? Yeah, it's tough because if we had some more insight into his snap or target distribution or, yeah, snap distribution, I would have a stronger play. He looked really promising in that primetime game. Was that two weeks ago against Green Bay where he had five catches? But, yeah, not knowing he's still splitting work.

Obviously, without Kittleittle you have to think that some targets would be up for grabs but yeah it still seems like he's not fully out of the dog house or at least Shanahan isn't fully trusting him yet so it's hard to back him in my opinion in this spot I'm concerned taking any like volume receiving overs for the 49ers right now because you're looking at a team that is probably going to run the ball as much as they can and then when they're not running the ball you know they're going to be Lance has been pretty you know not he's not been very accurate so far but he's been explosive so you know it's like if you're going to take something I'd probably take the yards um if you're not going to take

that like the receptions like I mean Lance could complete like you know 15-16 passes all game uh and so for him to catch you know four of those passes i think he's asking a lot given his current role right now which is pretty unknown so totally i mean not even coming into the year i think that we're going to see if the 49ers can get the running game going we're going to see a run heavy approach with lance throwing the ball like 25 to 30 times yeah no i agree with that that thought process too um we got a bunch of them here do our best brandon cooks over 64 and a half yards um man again backing anything texans related in davis mills is really hard to the patriots defense even without stefan gilmore they are second and past the dvoa there's a reason that they kind of played this game with Gilmore. There's a reason

they were comfortable releasing him and letting him go. You know, they do have a strong secondary without him. And I think the offensive line for the Texans is going to be a problem. I think New England's going to get a lot of pressure. It would be a long, painful watch, I think, with Cooks. Anyone have a lean on this one? Yeah, I fully agree with your line of thinking, Ryan. I think it would be a very painful one that would likely require the Patriots going up multiple scores and playing some prevent defense in the fourth quarter and some garbage time. And, yeah, it's very hard right now to back anything Davis Mills related. And, yeah, as you mentioned, New England has a terrific secondary, fantastic defensive scheme.

J.C. Jackson is one of the best kind of unknown, unheralded cornerbacks in the NFL. I expect him to be stuck on Cooks for this game. So, yeah, I have a really hard time backing him. Yeah. Derrick Henry, big dog, over two and a half receptions, plus money at plus 120. I was interested to see,

he really didn't get a ton of work in the passing game last week after really being a prominent member of the passing game. And last week you thought he would, considering that we didn't have A.J. Brown or Julio Jones. Connor, any thoughts on the big dog eating this week against Jacksonville? No, I think that I would lean towards receiving yards rather than receptions. Right now his receiving yards over-under is just like 15.5. He can get there in one play easily, one screen.

But he's been seeing a decent amount of work as you mentioned he's gone over that number actually in every game so far and then we rejected for 27 receiving yards so i think that that's probably the way that i would play this if anything connor do you think aj brown status in the game um has a positive or negative effect on henry's receiving prop um i would say actually positive i know that generally um, like, it's better to have less competition, but I think it's only to a certain extent. You know, like, it's important to have other threats of receiving that, you know, can just alleviate pressure on certain things that kind of open up the field a little bit more

because right now, like, who's opening up the field with the Titans? Like, why would you respect the Titans passing attack at all without A.J. Brown and Julio Jones? You shouldn't. And so, you know, if you're looking at even like Henry catching a swing pass or a screen, like it's just a lot more, I think, predictable for the defense and a lot harder to respect.

We'll stay with the Titans thoughts on Tannehill over 11 and a half rushing yards. These are, I love these. These are the ones I try to like, I actually every week try not to bet some of these that i really want to tan hill is one that i always look for because he does have you know low-key scrambling ability um again i sometimes i would like to maybe dial back and look at the ones i pick i try to pick these in scenarios where a the quarterback is a willing runner on his own and b where the opposing defense gets a higher-than-league average pressure rate

because then you're forced to have some more of those unscripted tuck-and-runs. I don't think Jacksonville kind of fits that bill. Alex, what are your thoughts on that? Yeah, I totally agree. I look at that as where I try to look for defenses that are primarily playing man defense as well. And, yeah, like you said, high pressure rate. And, yeah, Jacksonville doesn't really check those boxes.

So this would be actually one spot that I do like a lot of QB rushing props as well. But, yeah, this is kind of one of them. I don't think I'm not playing the under, obviously, or not playing the under. But, yeah, I'm not looking over either or just kind of a stay away. Connor, Darnell Mooney, over 49 and a half yards. Mooney is really, if you kind of look at how he's being used, he's being used as aggressively, if not more, than how they're using, you know, Allen Robinson.

Deep down the field, you know, similar target share. Nice spot against the Raiders. We saw a little bit more encouraging use last week with the way that Bill Lazor's calling plays. Thoughts on Mooney in the spot against the Raiders at 49.5? Yeah, I like that, actually. I think that that's very much in play. I also think that a longest completion prop actually might be better for Mooney. I'm not really sure what that's at, but probably in the 20-ish range, 25 range.

I think that's just as good because I'm not sure that Fields is going to be as consistent as he was last week. But the one thing that stood out to me from being at the game was just that how accurate he was in deep spaces and how he was just dropping the ball in perfectly. And we know there's going to be at least one or two deep shots to Darnell Mooney. They've limited Fields' attempts so far to whatever you know whatever 20 ish a game you know 25 like max and they're really trying to keep him like in a low volume kind of role right now um

and i think that we're going to see those attempts i just don't know when it's going to come so for me it's the longest completion prop rather than uh receiving. Sorry, just to jump on. I fully agree with your take as well, Connor. I like this prop as well. We have limited sample size regarding fields, but just based on the data that we do have, his favorite target is Mooney. He's looking at his way as a much higher target share than Allen Robinson. So yeah, he seems to be the preferred target. He has good chemistry with fields.

Yeah, so I think he is, yeah, I prefer him, especially if you get him in a lower number than Allen Robinson. And, yeah, I would back him in the spot. Our projection there on Mooney is about 56.5 yards. So light lean over, but, again, just medium projection. The way that Mooney's being used, there are some deeper ADOT stuff too, so he can, you know, when he goes over, he can go over in a nice way. JetSide from James.

Any interest in Jameson Crowder over 52.5 or Corey Davis over 59.5? Jameson Crowder came in last week and saw alpha work from targets per rouse run. Really kind of insane usage. usage again Elijah Moore was in the concussion protocol he's back this week so I would proceed with caution on any Crowder overs because we really don't know how that's going to play itself out Corey Davis though isolated he somewhat has a insulated role Alex Devaney leans on Davis here on the road in London against the Falcons. I prefer Crowder in this spot, but actually looking more towards receptions.

I do understand that Elijah Moore coming back, he could potentially be stealing some snaps in the slot from Crowder. I do think Crowder is the more trusted option. I do think he's going to primarily play in the slot. And we've seen Zach Wilson just going to primarily play in the slot and we've seen um zach wilson just has a complete affinity for the slot i think in the three previous games he had targeted braxton barrios who was playing the slot role for the jets 21 times so yeah he is just heavily leaning and looking towards whoever is soaking up those snaps from the snap a slot i do expect

it to be crowder i know he had nine targets, seven catches, 60 yards, and a touchdown. But I personally, I do actually like Crowder in this spot as sort of a security blanket for Wilson, who has just shown a proclivity to spam the slot. Yeah. Well, good call. We don't really know what's going to happen there. So I think there could be some buying opportunities for sure.

Let's see. Quinta Sevis, been doing well lately, playing Minnesota. Negative game script expected. I think there could be some buying opportunities for sure. Let's see. Quintus Cephas, been doing well lately, playing Minnesota. Negative game script expected. 39.5 minus 114 on Quintus Cephas. That does not get me out of bed in the morning, but I don't know if someone else has a lean on Quintus Cephas. He's been all over the place. I mean, he's gone over this number twice and, like, way under this number twice.

My projections are right there, too, 41.5. Yeah, he has been playing well, and I think that there should be volume. But, yeah, it's not something I'm stoked to take. Take more fun players. You know, like, if you're going to grind out a Quintus Sevis prop, like, there's a lot on the board coming off, right? There's the khalif raymond love yeah you gotta you gotta have something like this to be honest like um you gotta

have a massive edge i would think like you would have to define like that there was a a massive discrepancy of whatever projection you have or think that the book made a blatant error or something like that you know something like that where we just have a two yard edge um it's not something that i'm gonna jump on unless it's someone like a davante adams where we just have a two-yard edge. It's not something that I'm going to jump on unless it's someone like a Devontae Adams where I feel like, okay, I can reverse engineer how I think the game's going to play out and we know what

his target share is. There's just a lot of moving parts to a Quintus Sevis projection in this type of spot. So I would find somewhere else on the board to go. Davis Mills, under 207.5 passing yards. Man. I don't know if it changed while he was typing.

This is now down to 188.9. No, no, no. I looked at this actually when it started the week and it opened at 207. And I was like, oh, that seems perfect. I'm going to bet this. And then like got off work and it was down to like 198. And I was like, oh, that sucks. I was like, okay, well, it'll probably go back up to like 200 at other shops.

Wait until Fandle opens it. Since then, it'll have gone down another 12 yards. So, you know, I'm sitting here, you know, holding nothing, holding the bag. But I was definitely in on that 200, under 200. Still think under 198 is fine, actually, to be honest, too. Given the past defense has been really strong. Davis Mills has been, I mean, beyond bad in most scenarios. He's shown signs of success against a depleted Carolina defense after,

you know, mid-game, J.C. Horn went down. And then last week he had like three passing yards at halftime against the Bills. And so, yeah, I mean, I'm on the under, he's not a starting NFL quarterback. Like, you know, 188 yards is a big ask for him, I think. I agree. This one's fun.

We were waiting for this one. Trey Lance, over 41.5 rushing yards, minus 115 on DK. I think he dropped it 40.5. It's a tick higher than our projection. I think we have him projected for 36 rushing yards. But what I will say, Arizona is giving up the highest rate of explosive runs in the league so far this year. That's runs 15 yards or more down the field.

Again, I'm trying to temper expectations. Like we didn't see a great display of Lance as a passer last week, but I think there is something to the effect that they didn't have the Lance package dialed up last week. I don't think that they, I think that they have a group of plays that weren didn't have the Lance package dialed up last week. I don't think that they, I think that they have a group of plays that weren't necessarily in the game plan last week. That's that will be this week.

So it'd be some design runs and some spots that are going to make him, you know, play 11 on 11 and then make things a little bit easier for him. So you see a lot of RPOs, a lot of options. So again, even though our number's a little bit lower, this is the anti-Quintus Cephas play. You're watching this game and you are cheering for him to go off and just to tuck and run a couple times.

This would be a fun one to get on the right side of. It's a little high. We kind of got caught in the spot a couple weeks ago with the Justin Fields stuff where everyone was waiting for that number. They got absolutely steamed to like mid fifties, which I could see happening here with Lance. We're not there yet, but Alex,

what are your thoughts on 41 and a half? Yeah, I'm with you. I was hoping this would be somewhere in the mid to high thirties did open a little higher than I anticipated, but I agree. They're going to have to, for the 49ers,

in my opinion, to be competitive in this game, there's going to have to be designed running plays. Lance is going to have to use his legs.ers, in my opinion, to be competitive in this game. There's going to have to be designed running plays. Lance is going to have to use his legs. I'm anticipating him using his legs. Yeah, there's going to be, I think Arizona obviously can provide the necessary pressure to get him outside of the pocket as well. And so, yeah, I do think the game plan is going to involve Lance running. There's going to be designed runs, RPOs, like you'd mentioned, Ryan. So, yeah, I'm definitely looking over at this. I could also see a scenario where it continues to steam up like you mentioned

as well so yeah i like it i don't know what your thoughts here buddy yeah i think the question is are we going to see trey lance be justin fields level usage where they're you know are they going to design those runs right now the bears are designing like no runs for fields uh which sucks or are we going to see like a jalen Jalen Hurts type of player, you know, where he's just dropping back and running anytime he can and just, like, is so much faster than everyone else, like especially the linebacking core. I mean, he looked good in some of his runs last week.

He looked just electric. So, for me, probably a stay away, maybe like a live bet in game, kind of just, like, watch and see how he's been playing because I don't really know. I think it could be one of the two options. Like, Justin Fields is certainly plenty athletic, probably a stay away, maybe like a live bet in game, kind of just like watch and see how he's been playing. Because I don't really know. I think it could be one of the two options. Like Justin Fields is certainly plenty athletic, but he just hasn't really, you know, been running as much the last two games.

So that overrun result, by the way, all the way down to 28 and a half, I think that we're pretty close to a buying opportunity here as he becomes more comfortable. Interesting. It'll be a fun one to watch for sure. We'll do another one. one mahomes 16 and a half rushing yards against the bills same situation you could always get me on the homes rushing yards

he is not afraid to run it um runs first downs extends plays again there's we should be expecting a high level of play volume in this game 56 and a is the total. There's not going to be a spot where really – I'd be really surprised if either of these offenses aren't still in go mode come late fourth quarter. So it's not going to be a scenario where Mahomes is going to be cautious. They're going to be in like this run-heavy game script or anything like that. So, again, this is one of those – I don't have a massive lean on it. But, again, if you want something fun to bet

when you're watching Sunday night football that kind of has a low threshold, it can go over nicely. These are the ones that we like to points bet sometimes too, Connor. These quarterback rushing yards when they have a little bit of a ceiling, and Mahomes does, outside of really when he had the injury last year in the playoffs. Alex, any thoughts here? Yeah, I like this as well. This just projects to be a highly competitive game where you're not having to worry about necessarily the Chiefs

taking their foot off the neck of the Bills because this game looks like it's going to be like four quarters from two very competitive teams. And yeah, Mahomes is not afraid to use his legs. He gets out of the side of the pocket a lot. And yeah, I agree this is a good spot to buy in on it. And yeah, I personally like this play. I don't know why I've always thought that taking, of the pocket a lot and yeah i agree this is a good spot to uh buy in on it and yeah i personally like this play i don't know why i've always thought that uh taking like rushing yards over

from like quarterbacks and like more fragile players in games where it's going to be competitive or playoff games it's just like way smarter because rather than throwing the ball away like they'll grind that extra like two yards or three yards and or at least like try and scramble and i don't know maybe you know i haven't backtested that officially but i i feel like they're rushing yards like my homes always rushes for so many more yards in the playoffs and he's like putting his legs to work whereas in the regular season sometimes he does but only if it's open you know what i mean he'll try his arms at all costs which it makes sense try and save his health you know what i mean uh in this game though i like it i think the over is definitely in play. I think that logic checks out.

I mean, without, again, having back-tested it, I know we've talked about it in the past, because I think we went pretty heavy last year on Mahomes' rushing number in the playoffs. I think maybe it was the Browns game when he went down. But, yeah, I think it makes sense. Two more real quick. This one's been in here. Pat's O-line issues with COVID.

Any angles there? Pat's actually got a pretty deep offensive line bench. They are going to be able to fill in with guys that are probably NFL starting caliber. It is one of the strengths of the team. With that said, I believe Connor and I have over on Damian Williams rushing yards. I like it obviously a little bit less than I did yesterday in the morning, but I still think against this front for Houston, that he could be able to bounce back and eat.

Any thoughts here, Alex? Yeah, I'm also backing Damian Harris, rushing yards, rushing attempts as well. Yeah, I'm actually not – do we know how many starters are potentially affected with COVID for New England's line? Possibly four. Possibly four? Yeah. So, yeah, Ryan mentioned they do have depth. This does kind of seem like the type of system that's predicated

on having guys that can step in right away that are familiar with a very specific scheme. So, yeah, I wouldn't worry too much. Unfortunately, we have a very soft Texans front that is very much vulnerable. And, yeah, I think we could probably play offensive line for the Patriots against the Texans front and Damian Harris could probably rush for over 70 yards.

So I'm not too overly concerned over it. Yeah, I think he's still, if he's getting 16 carries here, I think we're still getting to 60 without any real concerns, I'd imagine. So last one before we jump into the prop pick, prop tool bets. Zeke over 75 and a half against the Giants. Our projection has it a little bit under, but I like this. I think the Giants are going to get their kicks, their teeth kicked through the back of their head this week. I think the Cowboys just destroy them. This Giants defense is not good.

They're really not good anywhere in particular if you really look at some of the metrics. And, you know, Blake Martinez is out. Like, there's just not a lot there. I think we really haven't seen the top shelf stuff that we could see from the Cowboys. And I think we see it this week. I think they absolutely roll in a big, big, big way.

Any thoughts there on Zeke? I have to eat a little bit of crow here. I was not bullish on Zeke coming into the season. To me, I just felt like he had kind of been on this downward trajectory each and every season, and he kind of looks zapped, like a lot of explosiveness. I know you've kind of had various things happen off the field. He hasn't always played. But, yeah, I've been very impressed with how he's looked. He looks

explosive. I think having Pollard in the backfield has kind of motivated him to some extent, but yeah, he looks great. He looks explosive. This is something I would definitely lean over. And yeah, the Giants defense, while it's solid, not spectacular, um yeah they're missing pieces and then nothing really to fear as far as the matchup's concerned um yeah i agree all right one last prop here that i'm bringing up before uh you know before we go to the prop tool trey lance rushing attempts prop just kind of dropped like about an hour ago uh seven and a half He had seven and one half last week. Yeah, what's the price? Minus 110 right now on draft games.

I think I'm playing it right now. Seven and one half last week has shown tendency to run. As you said, I can't imagine doing anything outside of just drawing up RPOs and everything imaginable to get him going. So I think that, but, you know,

when it comes down to this, it'll look silly at the end of the day. Yeah, that's pretty low. I got to be honest. I thought. I expect closer to nine and a half, eight and a half. I would have thought it had been set up, but yeah, I'd back that as well. Yeah, I think we're light projection wise on it, Connor. I would trust your instincts.

I think I'll fire at that one with you too. I'll hug that one if you toss it in there. I will. Because I, yeah, I think our projections are light. So it's one of those times where our tool on the site, which we're going to show you now, is fantastic. But sometimes, you know, there are times when you have to trust your own research and process as well.

So, yeah, last week the prop tool took an L in this spot, but I got to be fair. We forced it mid-show to call an audible because we took a listener question that was actually designed to be the question of the show. So this week we came out unscathed here in the listener portion of the show. So now we can turn it over to Sal for the prop tool bet of the week my friend all right here we are okay derrick carr passing attempts over 33.5. That is available at minus 120 on DraftKings. Our projections to have him about five attempts over at 38.5.

Against the Bears, initial reaction there, Alex. Yeah, I love this. I'm fairly certain he's been over in all four of the Raider games to start the season. He's having to throw a ton. I know we've got Jacobs back in the backfield, but it hasn't really mattered. The Raiders have just not been able to really generate much of a ground game. They've had to rely on Carr a lot. I know they are favorites in this game. Some of the previous games, he did work with some game script that was beneficial to him. But, yeah, I just expect them to have to throw the ball

and have to lean on the Raiders' passing attack to generate offense on them. So, yeah, I think this is good. Yeah, he has gone over this total in every one so far this year. Maybe he was flat last week against the Chargers. Connor, any thoughts on the Prop Tool Bed of the Week? Yeah, it seems light. I like the chargers. Connor, any thoughts on the prop tool bed of the week? Yeah, it seems light. I like the over there. It probably should be like 35, something like that.

Yeah, that makes sense. Again, if this is new to you, this is a part of our suite of tools over at 444. Again, you can see up top, it tells you how you can get access to this. Again, you can pick your states. You can pick your book. You can pick any of the props here available. This is updating every 10 to 15 minutes. You can adjust here on the

far right side where it says adjust prop. Maybe if you have a guy or a credit book or you're getting a different number or you can get a feel for running that against our projections, which are really flat out some of the best in the business over the last decade plus. So yeah, definitely check it out. Again, 444.com slash plans. You can get our projections and this tool. And another tool that's awesome too, which is basically a prop tool explorer, which I pulled up while we were looking at it. And that's how I knew how often he has hit this so far this year. So good stuff, Sal. Hopefully we can keep the money train rolling for everyone. Thank you so much for the listener questions.

We really appreciate it. We will do our best to get to as many as we can every week. Try and keep this show right around here tucked under an hour. But we appreciate you guys firing them at us. And good stuff, guys. As always, let's make some money. We'll be back to do it again next week. So for Connor and Alex I'm Ryan thanks everyone