Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 6 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: October 16, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, Ryan and Alex discuss their top Week 6 NFL player prop bets while Connor is partying at a wedding.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 6 Prop Drop Intro 4:16 Alex Prop No. 1 8:38 Ryan Prop No. 1 10:40 Alex Prop No. 2 13:58 Ryan Prop No. 2 17:01 Alex Prop No. 3 19:40 Ryan Prop No. 3 22:41 Alex Prop No. 4 24:41 Ryan Prop No. 4 26:20 Twitter Questions 56:27 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 59:31 MOAR Week 6 Props 1:03:30 Week 6 Prop Drop Outro

oh and welcome to move the line prop drop edition presented by win bet download the win bet app today enter promo code 444. Receive a risk-free $1,000 bet. It's a two-man show this week. No three-man weave. Just, you know, just oops. Just alley-oops. No three-mans. Connor is out. He's standing up for a friend in a wedding. Me and my boy Propstar is holding down the fort. Alex, what's going on, brother?

What is up, Ryan? I'm stoked to be here. We've got the tag team, me and you. I'm excited. I'm going to miss Connor, but I'm confident that me and you can hold it down in the meantime. I like that. You know what I'll do is, I haven't talked to Connor about it. I'm sure he's fine. Connor put a prop article up on our site late last night. I'll give a Connor prop out once you and I roll through ours. I'll pull up his article when we're sharing stuff here and we'll give out one. I'll make sure it's still live

for the brand of the show. We want to keep this interactive. Again, if you are just tuning in for the first time, Move the Line is two shows a week. We have a Wednesday game by game breakdown where Connor and I team up and bring on

different folks from around the industry it's more size and totals we talk kind of 50 000 foot view of props because we don't have a ton out at that point but alex this is your zone of genius we don't share this with anybody we just keep alex here because alex crushes props um so absolutely love having him be a part of this with Connor and I every week this season. So again, this is available both in podcast form and on YouTube as well. Jump in the chat over on YouTube. If you're seeing a link on Twitter, come join us.

We want your questions. The tail end of the show, basically the last half of the show are your questions. We want to know what you're looking at this week. What are you considering? Do you have questions for anything that we've shared? And then how can we basically help you make plus EV bets heading into this weekend? So love your time to rate and review. If you have the time, head over for four.com slash plans. All that's in the show notes. You can find out

how to get our betting sub. Alex, let's jump into a little weird. We have buys for the first time this week. So we have four teams off the slate. And then there's just been a ton of injury news that is taking things off the board. There's some stale numbers out there. And then the books have actually been a little slow, at least in relation to the last few weeks of getting some stuff out there. Has that changed your process at all coming into today? I know for me, it was a little harder to get four bets out here to talk about. Yeah, it absolutely has. I've been, yeah, I just start grinding, generally speaking. You know, the moment Tuesday rolls around and we start getting some early props, you know, starting for Thursday night football.

And yeah, it's just been very slow to trickle down. And yeah, I've been just kind of waiting for the you know things to drop and they're not coming and there's been so much unexpected injury news and like you mentioned the buys so yeah I've been kind of at the edge of my seat and yeah having to produce a certain amount of picks has been challenged but yeah I live for this so this is the type of challenges I enjoy so yeah I'm ready and yeah it's been a little interesting for sure. We could have worse problems for sure. It's a little different. So I feel like we've done a good job, at least on our side at 444 of training our discord. It's actually really quiet come like

Saturday night and Sunday, which we love. We just want to make sure that we are not pounding books prop wise or definitely sides and totals on Sundays or even Saturdays really unless there are different things but I feel like this might be one of those weekends for the first time where we get maybe some stuff that starts to come out tonight after we're done recording or stuff that comes out on Saturday or Sunday so um but let's tackle what we know now um we're never going to just fire anything just for the sake of firing so these are all things that I know Alex and I are on and these are things that are still out there for you now. If you are watching and listening, that way we can still go out and get the best of the number

right now. So Alex, you're going to start us off today. What is your first bet, my brother? Yeah. So I'm going back to a faithful man that we both have enjoyed very much on this show. I believe we have called him, I want to say, four out of the five weeks or at least three. He's a brand guy for sure. He's a brand guy, and you're repping him, I see, with your cap. So, yeah, it's Michael Pittman, Jr., over 60.5 receiving yards. I saw this at minus 115 on DraftKings right before we jumped on.

So yeah, after a week one dud in which the entire Colts offense just really struggled across the board, Pittman has come alive. He's at 123, 68, 59, and 89 receiving yards in his last four games. He's firmly established himself as the number one receiving option in the Colts passing attack. He's seen a whopping 39 targets in his past four games. That's good for just a hair under 10 targets per game. Love that sort of volume. Yeah, we've been talking about all year how he's just a breakout candidate. I felt that way.

I know you did, too. Coming into the season, we're seeing, you know, it happened before our very eyes. He's winning down the field. He's ripping off big gains on screen passes. you did too coming into the season we're seeing you know it happened before our very eyes uh he's winning down the field he's ripping off big gains on screen passes he's averaging a ton of air yards and yeah the route tree has expanded and yeah we're just firmly witnessing a second year breakout from him uh on the wet wince looks healthy too which is obviously super encouraging yeah uh knock on wood obviously because you know he's been very brittle. But yeah, he had the best game of the season last week against Baltimore in prime time, threw for over

400 yards. I love the fact that Pittman has a 25% target share. If you're looking at outside wide receivers that have played against this Houston secondary that profiles similarly to Pittman, they've also had a ton of success dating back to Marvin Jones, went five for 77. DJ Chark, three for 83. We saw DJ Moore hang eight for 126 on Thursday night football. Stephon Diggs had seven, 114. Manny Sanders went five for 74. I'm also not at all convinced, Ryan, that Indy is 10 points better than this Houston team. While I could see a scenario where maybe it gets out of hand in the fourth quarter, I'm actually anticipating somewhat of a competitive game script. I'm expecting Wentz to throw the ball into the second half.

I also like Wentz's passing prop that has moved throughout the course of the last 48 hours. But, yeah, that's been a lot of sharp action. I know it's gone towards that. But, yeah, I expect Wentz to be throwing in the second half, and Pittman Jr. is just, you know, he's the horse. So I expect him to get a ton of volume, and he's going to just rip off big gains in this Texans zone scheme. So, yeah, I'm loving Michael Pittman this week.

This is such a safe landing spot for any pro Michael Pittman tanks. So, yeah, I mean, I was on him. Connor, you speak to it, too. He actually for a little bit there told me that I had to shut up about it because it was probably becoming a little too much. But like pre-draft process, I loved him coming in. I thought he was underrated in where he was ranking in that class. And it was a great class. I thought that he had like true alpha difference maker skills.

I was always comparing him to a better Mike Williams, which maybe is not holding well right now with the way Mike Williams is playing. But I like that big body receiver that has a lot of after the skill catch. He led the league last year as a rookie in yards after completion plus, which is like an advanced metric that Football Outsiders puts out.

And he was injured. Like he wasn't even really healthy last year. And the point that I always go back to is the Colts didn't have a first-round pick that year. They had two second-round picks. They took Pittman first. They then traded back into the early part of the second round to take Jonathan Taylor.

So as much as they like Taylor, and we love Taylor, he's an incredibly talented running back, they said when they were on the clock at like 33 or 34 in the second round, we can't let Pittman get by. We'll take a chance. Hopefully we can come back and we like Jonathan Taylor, but we can't let Pittman come by. So the organization is one that's we consider sharp. And yeah. So again,

just to reiterate, Pittman's the man he's ascending. This is not, you know, just kind of a flash in the, in the pan. He is going to continue to pop. So my first one for the week,

Austin Eckler over 37 and a half receiving yards is available on FanDuel at minus 114. I took this yesterday at 36.5. I'll still take it at 37.5 if I was listening now. Running back receiver props have kind of been my kryptonite of the season. They have not gone so well, but I feel like this is one that we're going to get back on the board here. The Chargers play the league's fastest situation neutral pace. They have – Charger games have combined for the second most total plays on the season, just a tad under 131.

It's going to be a lot of plays. We know that the Ravens can play it a little slow, but when they get dragged into an up-and-pace spot, they're going to play with some pace here. Game environment is going to be awesome. Match was nice too. Ravens 29th in defensive DVOA against pass catching running back so far this year. They have also allowed a league high 67 and a half receiving yards to the position. Eckler's top 50 receiving yards in four of his past five. He's going to make a

five or six this week. I think this is a nice play anywhere below 40. Again, he's just having massive, massive usage in a game that we think is going to go into the mid-50s. Eckler over 37.5 on Fandle. Yeah, I absolutely love that play, Ryan. I've been supporting Eckler. Every week I've been backing him outside of the first week against Dallas. Yeah, I think any time he's under 40 yards, he offers tremendous value. He's just a massive mismatch for opposing linebackers and even safeties. To me, he's one of the most fluid route runners at running back.

And yeah, I love the spot. I also love the matchup against Baltimore. You mentioned how they've been really generous to opposing running backs as far as giving up receiving yards and furthermore they blitz as much as any defense in the league and i feel like he is someone that the chargers can take advantage of in those spots so yeah i absolutely love this play i'm on this it was in my weekly column so yeah i love seeing that you're on this as well ryan love it buddy what's next for you so next up we've got excuse me for a second um we have mark andrews over four and a half receptions this is a chalky one but to me

the juice is worth the squeeze it was at minus 160 i believe the last time i checked on mgm but i really think this offers a very safe floor and Andrews has had at least five receptions in four straight games. He's coming off a monster 11-catch performance on primetime Monday night against the Colts. He caught two touchdowns. He piled up 147 receiving yards in that game. This is also the first time I can remember, and probably in Mark Andrews' career, that he has not been on the injury report.

The Chargers just gave up a seven catch 149 yard performance of david nojoku one touchdown i just think the usage is going to continue for andrews in this offense he's operating as the number one option in the passing game lamar is also throwing the ball more than ever we've talked about the ravens offense a lot on this show how they're they're passing more than they've ever passed. I don't think that's something that's going to stop. I just think with the personnel they have, with the injuries to the backfield, and also with the defense, they're going to continue throwing the ball.

Yeah, so yeah, I absolutely love Mark Andrews over four and a half receptions. I think it offers a really safe floor. Yeah, their situation neutral passing rates up like 9%, which is drastic. You know, they're still not like an elite passing, but again, they've been so run heavy for the last few years. They just don't have the dogs to do it now. They don't. They're not going to lean on Latavius Murray and, you know,

Devonta Freeman and, you know, the ghost of Le'Veon Bell. The only guy that we thought maybe had a little bit of juice there is tyson and they're not even really giving him a chance to do it so the interesting thing is the staley matchup like they are daring you to run that's why nick chubb was a play for me last week um but again like they don't really have the guys to do it running back carries are very different than how we're going to profile a running quarterback so i think they're going to have to take it um through the air here a little bit. And Andrews is obviously a great way to do so. So I like that quite a bit.

Next for me is Chase Claypool, over 60 and a half receiving yards. This is also minus 114 on FanDuel. Claypool typically is drawing the short end of the stick in two receiver sets. But now with Juju out, it's going to be wheels up for Claypool for a couple of weeks. And I think we're going to be begging for numbers close to 60 for the next couple of weeks. I think his numbers are going to be consistently in the upper 60s or maybe even low 70s here. He has basically the week three when Devante or Deontay Johnson sat, we saw a 91% routes run output for

Claypool. On the season, he's at 67%. So we're going to see something in the upper 80s here to 90s. And it's a great matchup. Seattle's past D, DVOA is 28th in the league. They are 31st in success rate allowed. They have a couple of undersized corners that are going to be a massive problem for Claypool. And I think he's going to absolutely eat in this game. Again, we know that we all the holes that we want to punch in Big Ben. This is a nice spot for them against Seattle. They're going to have some, I think it's still going to be neutral game script. I don't think the Steelers are a runaway team right now, but I think there's going to be enough meat on the bone here. That's why I went with yards on Claypool versus receptions,

because the way that he hits is a little bit more downfield. And I think he's going to get there pretty comfortably. He is top 70 yards in his last three games. So now we got him at 60 and a half for basically even juice in the prop market. So absolutely love Claypool. Yeah, I absolutely love that prop as well. Yeah, Claypool to me is right there with Pittman Jr. As far as second year breakouts concerned, he is so physical.

He's just a matchup nightmare. He's huge. He wins a variety of ways. He has been ultra productive too. It's just been a matter of volume with him. He's been extremely productive on a per target basis. As soon as you saw the volume ramp up a little bit, he's just exploded. Yeah, so I absolutely love this play.

I think he's one of the most dominant physical receivers in the league, and I expect him to just tear apart Seattle's secondary. So, yeah, I love that as well. Sticking in that game. Real quick before you get to your next one, I want to circle back before we lose this because we'll get buried in some comments. Folks are seeing Andrews out there at 5.5 at plus 120. Any thoughts on that? That's been asked a couple of times.

Yeah, I'm comfortable with it at that number. Yeah, I haven't projected at six receptions. I think he's going to continue to be leaned on. I mentioned Sammy Watkins is missing in this game. I know Bateman is making a season debut, but I don't expect him to be leading Baltimore in targets anytime soon. Hollywood Brown has never been a high volume guy. I expect Andrews to continue to be the focal point of the Ravens passing game. And yeah, I'm comfortable with him at that number as well. Our projections at four to four have Andrews at six on the dot for a tad over 70 yards. So getting, we would consider that a nice buy because you're getting plus number.

Yeah, I think I prefer it actually a little bit. Yeah, yep, so still in the play. Sorry to interrupt your next one. Your third prop, brother. Yeah, so sticking in the Steelers-Seattle game, very interesting game, by the way, is Alex Collins under 65 and a half rushing yards. I put this out when Ryan and I put our plays together.

We put these out a few hours prior to going on stream, and I have watched this one just, I think it's down as low as 55, I heard, on a few books. I did see it around 60 to 61. I'm comfortable playing it down to, I want to say, around 57.5. I believe it still is somewhere close to 60 on FanDuel. This number is just simply way too high for Collins, who hasn't topped 47 yards. Once this season, you have to go back to 2018 was the last time that the ghost of Alex Collins has eclipsed this number and that was an 18 carry performance for 68 yards versus Denver like I mentioned in 2018 Steelers defense is banged up

but this is still a stout unit schematically that front seven is just even though they're missing some of their key pieces to me they can handle a Seattle offensive line and Alex Collins no Russell Wilson Seattle's traveling across the country for a primetime matchup on the road with Geno Smith. That's just a very tough spot. Pittsburgh are five and a half point favorites. I think it's entirely possible. Seattle's offense just nosedives against Pittsburgh, whose scheme and personnel just, I think by default kind of gives weaker opponents a lot of problems.

I'm also expecting DJ Dallas and Travis Homer to mix in some. And Collins only played in the last game against the Rams 71% of the snaps. It's a decent number, but I could even see that number coming down a bit, especially if he's somewhat ineffective, especially if DJ Dallas and Travis Homer show a little bit of burst, because I just don't think Alex Collins has it anymore at this stage of his career. There's a reason he was out of the league for a year. And, yeah, to me, I just think this number came in way too high.

So, yeah, I'm comfortable playing it down around 57.5, 58.5. You can find it there. Yeah, it looks like 57.5 is the – on FanDuel is the best place to go right now. It's the highest number. It's the only one at 57.5 still, and it's minus 114, so it's priced pretty well too. Everything else out there right now, at least that I'm seeing, is 55.5. So Collins, FanDuel, if you got it, 57.5, still a good play.

Yeah, I mean, Pittsburgh D, still sixth in run D DVOA on the season. They're still getting it done. And, yeah, obviously a tough matchup in a game where you think they're going to, at least in the second half be, you know, playing from behind a little bit. So like that this was popped in the chat a little bit earlier to answer your question. My next one is Terry McLaurin, over 73 and a half receiving yards and minus one 15 on Caesars. I know that there's some concerns about his availability.

I think I've read from a couple of different people today where they think he just came in sore and it was a rest management day. They don't have a lot else besides Terry McLaurin right now as a receiver position. They've been dealing with a lot of injuries with Diami Brown. Morgan Thomas is done. Curtis Samuel is working his way back. They have to protect Terry McLaurin. So I think today was, even though it's a Friday,

I think it was a little bit of a management day for McLaurin. I took this earlier in the week at 77.5. I will gladly take it or pass it to you now at 73.5. I think it is still very, very much in play. McLaurin's had some up and down box score performances, but he's still seeing absolute wide receiver one alpha usage. He's run around on 97% of the team's dropbacks, been targeted 31% of the time on his routes,

dominant 44% of the team's air yards. This is an up and base game, high projected score. We know the holes in the Charmin soft Colts defense. We're looking at 10 to 12 targets here for McLaurin in a game where they're going to be chasing the Colts, who are also going to have their way up and down the field here. So, again, we're not having to chase volume here as far as the receptions go. McLaurin taking big shots deep down the field, I think, is going to be something they're going to have to do here. Again, Kansas City is giving up 89.6 yards per game to wide receiver ones. We just need to clear 73 and a half here. Minus 115 on Caesars. No problem firing

on McLaurin. If you want to wait, I think this number probably holds because everyone's going to be just as nervous as they are today, which is why it's down a couple yards. Wait. Wait till you hear he's active. But man,. Wait till you hear he's active. But, man, as soon as you hear he's active, you better be ready to go and fire that off because I think it'll get steamed up a little bit if he's – before it's come out that he's clear to go. So, Lane McLaurin. I like Ricky Seals-Jones as well. This is not an official play for the show.

I got it at 31-and-a-half. It's back out there at 38-and-a-half. Fire at that bad boy too he got 41 yards last week in a slow spot against uh the saints who are really good at defending tight ends chiefs much softer landing spot so um hopefully that's not stealing one of yours right alex no it's not but i'm actually really happy to hear that you're on that as well ryan because it was in my column so okay yeah absolutely absolutely love hearing that we're both supporting or backing the same play. So, yeah, as far as McLaurin is concerned, totally with you.

Just to piggyback off what you said, I mean, it's the best possible matchup. We're going to see 10 to 12 targets against this Kansas City defense that has just been an absolute funnel to opposing wide receivers. And, yeah, they're going to just have to air the ball out a ton in what is likely to be a fast-paced game. And Washington has actually been playing fast as well. So, yeah, that's not going to slow down versus Kansas City. So, yeah, I absolutely love that as well.

And then my fourth and final prop is Hunter Henry over three and a half receptions. I last saw this at, I believe, minus 135 on MGM. This is one of my favorite props of the week. Henry has quietly racked up 19 targets over the last three games. He's become a big part of New England's aerial attack. He's coming off a season-best 75-yard performance, one touchdown. He reeled in six of eight targets. Over half of Mac Jones' targets go to his tight ends and running backs,

with James White now recently on injured reserve. I expect Henry to continue to see a minimum of six day targets weekly. I expect the former charger to take advantage of the Cowboys cover three scheme. It's vulnerable to quick and underneath passes, something the Patriots offense and Mac Jones has leaned on a lot this season. Dallas has given up 27 receptions, 5.4 receptions per game, 330 yards, 66 yards per game to the tight end position.

Takes time for players to acclimate to New England's offense. To me, Henry is getting better and more comfortable each and every week. I expect him to continue to serve as Mac Jones' safety valve. Yeah, I have him projected for four targets easily. I could see a bigger day if Dallas forces New England to have to abandon the run in the second half as well. So yeah, I absolutely love this prop. I like it.

I like it. He's been trending up and up and up. So I like that one quite a bit. And they should be playing more 12. They're not playing enough 12, but it's coming at the expense of Jonu Smith, who's barely on the field as of late. So I'm not sure if he's still dealing with an injury or what's going on there, but currently definitely ascending with Hunter Henry and feeling that he's still dealing with an injury or what's going on there. But currently definitely ascending with Hunter Henry

and feeling that he's a safety blanket outside of Jacoby Myers there. So for sure, I like that one. Next one for me, I like by itself. This is another one that actually I'm going to give you the, again, we talked about at the top. It's kind of a wonky week. Rashard Higgins, under 24 and a half receiving yards. It's minus 114 on FanDuel.

I like this by itself. I like it standalone. If we find out that not only is Landry active, because they pulled him off of the IR list, that doesn't mean that he's active for the game on Sunday. If he is active for the game on Sunday, fire at this very comfortably. Under 24 and a half on Rashard Higgins. Higgins has basically exclusively been the slot receiver

since Landry went out. He barely played in week one. He ran like four routes. Barely played in week two while Landry got hurt and then has slid into a basically slot-exclusive role. Doesn't play much on the outside. This is a run-heavy team who's playing at home in a game where I think they're, even without Nick Chubb, are going to be able to run the football

a ton against Arizona. Arizona's 32nd in explosive rush rate allowed. They are bottom five in rushing success rate. I think that they are in for a heavy dose of Kareem Hunt. And there's a lot of wind projected here in the forecast. It looks like anywhere between 15 to 20 mile per hour winds for this game. And it's weird because even though he's a slot receiver, Higgins has a really deep A dot. Like they use him on shots deep down the field. That's not conducive to a game where we're expecting a lot of wind. So I feel pretty confident. We have him projected for 14 yards. That probably drops down even more if we start to build in Landry being active in our projections.

So again, this one you can fire at now, but I also think that you can get this number when we find out that Landry's active and have a little bit more conviction in it, because I know I will. I'm going to wait. This is what I wanted to give you and put on your radar and say, hey, let's wait and see what happens with the active news on Landry. Then we could fire at the Higgins under. All right, man, this is the next best part. I love it. We got some Twitter questions. And then this is a great time for you in the chat. If you were hanging out with

us, fire away. Let us know what you're looking at. I'm not Connor Allen. That reminds me. I'm going to find a Connor one. I'm going to find a Connor one for people. Maybe that's why it was Sal's subtle message to tell me to find a Connor prop. Alex, you are muted in case I'm losing you. While you do that, Ryan, I did want to point out, I wanted

to mention this when we were discussing the Eckler prop. Mike Williams has not practiced this week either, and he is shaped up to be a true game time call. It's very rare for a player not to practice all week and suit up and play. If he does not end up playing, that is a ton of targets that are going to be available in that Charger offense. So, yeah, that to me just kind of gives a little extra layer of EV value to this play. So, yeah, I love the Eckler prop. All right, Eckler. So, actually, that's funny because Connor's props actually kind of all fit with our props.

He's also in the Mark Andrews prop. He did write up Mike Williams over 72 and a half receiving yards. So obviously no need to jump on that now. Let's wait and see what happens. I might even not be on the board anymore compared to when he wrote this. So the one I will give you that Conor's on is Nelson Aguilar under three and a half receptions. So that works because we want those receptions to go to Hunter Henry.

So under three and a half minus one 15 So that works because we want those receptions to go to Hunter Henry. So under three and a half, minus 115 at William Hill. Note from Connor is Algalor has gone under this number in four or five games to start the year. They have not connected downfield very often. He leads the team in ADOT. Jacoby Myers and the tight ends are gobbling up targets underneath. And we're seeing a dip in snaps run.

85% of the snaps run for seven targets in week one, down all the way to 67% of the snaps last week against the Texans. So tough matchup against Dallas, who's seventh in past DVOA and has really kind of limited explosive plays on the season. So we have Aguilar projected to just 2.7 receptions. So Connor likes under three and a half on Aguilar. So Connor, even though he's gone, representing the show. I love that play.

And Connor is here in spirit with us. I think that's phenomenal. Aguilar is running all of his routes deep down the field. We mentioned how Jones is not pushing the ball down the field. And that's by design he's targeting short intermediate routes um yeah i think aguilar is at best fourth or fifth um option in this passing attack i think even kendrick bourne um has ascended or has uh eclipsed him um as far as target share is concerned recently obviously we mentioned, we mentioned Jacoby Myers, Hunter Henry.

So, yeah, I think this is a great spot to fade Aguilar. Love it. All right, let's get to some of the Twitter questions first, and then folks can start firing them off in the chat here. Let me see here. Let me go to my trusty sheets that I had that I don't have. It's like I'm prepared for this. All right. From Twitter, Rematch 727 what are some things that books have consistently been misunderstanding this year that you've been

capitalizing on and why haven't they adjusted so what are some buying opportunities alex that you've been you've been hammering uh rushing attempts actually i do track obviously every single um you know prop that i play and i look obviously every single, um, you know, prop that I play and I look at every single category and I try to find where I'm finding the most value. I tend to find, uh, quarterback, uh, completion props, um, rushing, uh, attempts have been the most profitable for me this season. Um, yeah, I think, you you know just to provide an example for instance

just using a lot of data that i feel like is somewhat outdated if you look at someone like aaron rogers for instance he had a historically great efficient season last year where he connected on well over 70 of his passes passes. And these are not numbers. 9% touchdown rate. Exactly. These are not numbers that are normal whatsoever, even for a quarterback of his caliber. So you're seeing as a result of that this year, those numbers are still mimicking some of those trends from last year.

And you're getting these very, very high totals that, yeah, it's just he's naturally anyone is going to regress from some of those things. So, yeah, that's some stuff I look at. I've taken advantage of. I also just think, yeah, the rushing attempts have been just grossly inaccurate for the most part, especially when it is players who are potentially getting a bump in their usage or it is an example of young players or like Javante Williams early in the season could be cited as a good example of this where, yeah,

the books are just behind on predicting usage for a lot of running backs. So yeah, those are two categories. I feel like I've been taking advantage of and finding a lot of value in. I like that call. I like that. Yeah, I got a – in that same note, I got a Darrell Williams 9.5. I jumped out real quick. 9.5 carries. It disappeared in a big, big way. I think it's – where are we at now?

I don't even know if it's back out there. Rushing attempts. It's 11.5. Back out some other places. In my column again, Ryan. Man. rushing attempts it's 11 and a half um back out some other places in my column again ryan man dude we're either gonna be poor or printing this week you know at least we're in it together right so the shit goes down i can throw a life jacket at you right team flower printing in week six yes sir absolutely gotta love it you know i would say i i don't know that i have a great use case for this question as far as props but i will say uh you know i don't know what the percent of our

listeners that are that get down on sides or totals but for me it continues to be team totals team totals i think are a really inefficient market if you're looking to bet anything in the traditional betting market because a lot of books so they don't set the team total specifically and what i mean by that is they're setting a spread and a game total and the team totals move with the spread and total so when we see some action on this on a number that can move the spread up or down or something that moves the total up and down there ends up being some trickle down effect of how that relates to the team total and oftentimes those can move around key numbers which are really really important anytime you're betting sides or totals key numbers are really valuable right so like for sides we're looking at three and seven and ten you know totals or there's a handful team totals are, you know, we're looking at 21, we're

looking at 24, 27, 28. So sometimes you'll see something move to 23 and a half. That's something that you like an over on a team total. That's really nice. I like having a 23 and a half on an over a lot more than I like having 24. I like having a, you know having a 28 and a half on and under a lot more than I like having a 28. So oftentimes the books aren't moving those specifically. They're moving them because they're moving the side and the total. And I'm always on the hunt for getting on the right side of those numbers. So on the season, I'm 10 and one on team six and try and try not to force them. But I'm also always looking for opportunities where there's a buying opportunity on a number that I like and just waiting for one of the books to

move it on the wrong side of the number. So I imagine a percentage of our listenership is dabbling a little bit into some of the other traditional markets. So I think that's a great application for that. That is. That's great information. All right. What is next?

The awful gambler had two questions for us. First looming injury news on Mike Williams. great application for that that is that's great information all right what is next the awful gambler had two questions for us first uh looming injury news on mike williams do you model teammate over unders to hit when the official news breaks it's a good question yeah so shout out to the awful gambler that's a buddy of mine named scott so what's up scott great question so so it is i'm sorry the question was, how does it affect other props? Yeah, I guess the question was, do you model teammate over-unders to hit when the official news breaks? Yeah, I mean, sure. I'm already kind of building those projections into, or I guess building the potential of Mike Williams being questionable into a play.

A good example would be James Conner last week. As I mentioned, I believe it was a play for this show. Unfortunately, it didn't end up hitting, but I love the play. It was Chase Edmonds was not practicing all week. He was a game time decision. We had Conner's number essentially would have been the same number had Edmonds played or not played. So when you have X percent chance, if he's questionable, I believe that's somewhere in the 40 to 60 percent chance

he's not playing. I feel like that adds extra EV to the play because you're somewhat free rolling. If he's not playing, you're obviously getting a number that you would never be able to get in a scenario where he is inactive so yeah I factor all that into my projections so yeah it doesn't necessarily have a big effect like when Mike Williams is already ruled out because I've already kind of accounted for it ahead of time unless it's obviously something that's completely out of nowhere and a complete surprise but yeah if there's you know reports along the way that he's injured and potentially questionable for the game i've already factored that into the process throughout the week yeah the challenge is that when what we typically see in these scenarios is that all the numbers come

down right so it's really hard to, there's such a short buying window for you to take advantage of the speculative buy in a situation like this. So like understanding how targets get distributed when you remove a player like Williams and is like 22, 25% target share, what percent of that gets allocated to Keenan Allen? And then where are the ancillary guys

coming in? How does that impact the tight ends? So you have to start to dabble a little bit and share it with everyone else. But then obviously you'd imagine that someone like Keenan Allen is going to slide into a little bit heavier of a workload. So it's really, yes, you can project it out, but it's really hard to leverage that until the books repost the number. I think that's a great point that you touched on too, Ryan, was that naturally a lot of people are going to be inclined to think that it just directly benefits the player who is then stepping in to assume that role. How you mentioned it affects tight ends, it affects running back. So i think it's important to look beyond just that um backup player how it trickles down elsewhere to other positions and yeah i think that's something that gets overlooked a lot of times in situations where

you know mike williams could be ruled out yeah you're right when you're modeling out projections you're looking right it's high level team stuff first, right? How many, what's the pace of play? How many plays are they going to run? Now what's everyone's target share? Those target scenarios, with this current version of Mike Williams, here's what happens. We have old Mike Williams. Sure. We don't know, like, how does that change with how dynamic he is now. And then how this coaching staff, right? So, like, all those things change. We have all these different variables that are really hard to speak to until we have enough data points. And we'll legitimately never have enough data points to say that it's a, you know, an actual actionable,

you know, projection that you can feel confident in. It's just the nature of the beast and what we're working in. So obviously again, Keenan Allen gets a bump. If Mike Williams is out, right. I'll feel probably even better about a Ross and Eckler play.

Like I said, if Keenan Allen's out. Another one from awful gambler. I know Dallas has rushed the ball. The last two games has loaded set of wide receivers, to play like absolutely if keaton allen's out another one from awful gambler i know dallas has rushed the ball the last two games has loaded set of wide receivers but a mobile qb like dac and davis loving the qb draw play especially in the red zone do we feel good about dac over seven and a half rushing yards um i think we talked about it last week i love these these are like you know there's a low point of entry here.

They're obviously just, they're tough to predict because, again, they are such a low variance play. Like he could easily get this and he can get 25 rushing yards on two or three scrambles, or he could just have a clean pocket all day, not be forced to run. They probably aren't calling any design runs for him per se but what are your thoughts on Dak yeah it makes me think of two things uh one somewhat off topic but I think are relatable to the subject is um when you have a low number like this Brady being a great example his rushing prop was a one and a half yards on um last night right and I think there was something like 96% action on the over.

And this is something I actually cautioned when I was asked about it on stream yesterday. When you're dealing with numbers this low and someone who, you know, it's basically coming down to whether or not they're going to escape the pocket and use their legs. That can easily be negated at the end of the game when he's kneeling and you're going to lose two to three yards in that scenario. And that is what caused Brady,

who was over, going into that final possession and then ultimately landed under. And that was obviously a brutal beat for a lot of people, but I think that is applicable here when talking about Dak. I know this number is a little bit higher, but I think that is applicable here when talking about Dak. I know this number is a little bit higher, but it's kind of the same sort of concept, and that basically comes down to if he's going to rush once or twice throughout the game, and to me, when a team is a favorite, that is something you can account for, and yeah, there is a pretty decent chance that he's going to be kneeling at the end of the game. You're losing three yards. Yeah, when the numbers are this low, I tend to just err pretty cautiously. So, yeah, I don't know how you feel about that, Ryan.

One thing I also found interesting and I feel like it's one of the more interesting plays I've come across this week is Justin Fields' rushing prop opened at 12.5 yards, Ryan. We have it as a significant overplay. Did you play it? I did. Okay. Maybe I'll have to get in on it.

It's somewhat speculative to me, but he is such a dynamic, mobile player where he is capable of getting that on one attempt. You have to think that at some point they're going to turn him loose even if they don't turn him loose he's going to face a scenario or two where he is going to escape the pocket use his legs to me that number is just criminally low even though it is speculative even though naggy is keeping him in the pocket eventually they're going to call some rpos eventually they're going to call some rpos eventually they're going to use the fact this guy is a dual threat very mobile quarterback to

their advantage i don't know if it'll be this week but with a number this low i feel like it's just a must play because of the fact that he's capable of getting it on one play and then there is a range of outcomes where he gets 10 rushing attempts as well so yeah to me to me it's just a must must play we have him at 33.2 yards which is i think very generous it jumped out i'm like whoa you know that's a you know 24 value in our play hopefully sal hopefully i'm not taking producer sal's uh player prop tool pick of the week that's coming up here in a moment. But, yeah, it's a lot. When you look at what's happened so far this year,

he has one design run in each of the last two games, and he scrambled once in week four, no scrambles last week. Like, I don't know. Like, I don't know how severe the knee injury is i wonder if there's something to it like you'd also think that they wouldn't put him out there if it was bad but like this doesn't add up to what he is skilled to do this is one of those opportunities where for like this is connor's specialty this is a points bet if you have points bet in your market this is a nice place this is these are the perfect points bet opportunities, running quarterbacks.

We hit a big Daniel Jones one in week two. Basically, points bet takes the prop, if you're not familiar with it. They juice it up a little bit, cover themselves. And basically, for every yard over, you get paid whatever your bet was. So in this scenario, or the Daniel Jones one, it was 20 and a half yards. So if you bet $5 for every yard, he goes over that number. You get five more dollars.

Now you're also on the hook for a $5 bet at 20 yards. You're holding a hundred dollars to start the bet. Because if he doesn't do anything, your $5 bet costs you a hundred dollars, right? So there's, there's some risk reward to it, but there are situations like this, where if he hits on our projection at 33, that's basically, you know, what, 20 something yards time, that's a hundred dollars on top of your five dollar bet so like there's a lot of range of outcomes for these but they're they're fun if you're right you're really right you're gonna cash big for it would you be surprised whatsoever if he ends up with 75

rushing yards as i personally would and i'm not saying that's the most likely outcome but clearly he's capable of doing that we saw a glimpse of it when he had 10 carries in one half i believe it was in week three so yeah to me this is just a no-brainer the number was so low where even if they don't design a run for him which i'm expecting them to um just to open the offense up plus this game also projects to me a little more friendly or at least a little more advantageous for him to use his legs versus green bay they've been leading the last two weeks or at least yeah they uh yeah right so they've been up the game spring the game uh the game script has been in their favor as far as you know running clock not needing his legs so yeah i can

see a scenario where he's going to revert to running if they're trailing, which I expect them to do against Aaron Rogers, who obviously career 20 and five record versus Chicago. So, yeah. Yeah, no, they absolutely should be. So like, you know, it's, it's something that I imagine I talk myself into in the next 48 hours, especially with you being on it and pretty convicted. So let's fire through rapidly through some of the listener questions and then get to Sal's pick of the day here at the prop tool.

Let me go back. Just make sure. Yeah. A friend's wedding. What a terrible escape. Patrick, I agree, man.

You know, like this, this is the best gig in the business you know we we make a living doing this and this guy decides to be a friend yeah first of all what kind of friend gets married during football season how dare him unbelievable right i don't know who's worse the friend or connor it's a good it's a good connor was almost the worst friend because he's like are you standing up in the wedding and he considered like maybe i could still be a part of the show like don't don't be that guy he's in the limo on the way home

streaming thing yeah the bachelor party paulie peppers great name paulie how high would you play aaron jones rushing first the bears let me give you real quick our projection really nice 69 rushing yards for aaron jones. What are your thoughts here? I don't know what the number is. Yeah, I believe it's in the 58 to 60.5 range. I think that is an efficient number personally. Yeah, I think there's enough of an argument or support that it does make sense to play. I've just been very encouraged by A.J. Dillon.

I'm expecting his role to continue to increase. I think it was a play that we had on here last week was his rushing attempts over that I made. I've absolutely been very impressed with Dillon. He's mixing in more and more. I've heard Rodgers gush about him. The team seems to really like him, obviously. They invested a lot of draft equity in him. His role has increased.

They're using him in the passing game to me it doesn't make sense to grind aaron jones down right now we're talking week six of the season um it's a very long season very that position obviously is the hardest position to uh stay healthy i think they're going to continue i think it almost would be ideal similar when jamal williams and j Jones were somewhat of close to like a 60-40, 55-45 split. I'm anticipating something similar with A.J. Dillon. That's what they want. It makes all the sense to me. So as far as that number of concern, I feel like it's efficient. I would lean over on it, but yeah, I'm not running to play it for that reason. I think there's some more value to be found elsewhere in the backfield. The place to get the over is points bet.

In my market, at least 54 and a half. If you like the under, FanDuel has a 61 and a half. So there's a nice middle there if you're on the fence on Aaron Jones. Let's see, what do we got here? You guys are awesome too. We appreciate you being here. This is awesome. Yeah, the questions make it so much better.

What do we got here? Thoughts on Kadarius Tony over 49 and a half. I've not seen that anywhere. But maybe that's starting to pop now that we have a little bit more answer on what's going on. Do we have some clarity on the, uh, draft Kings have this. I'm sorry.

Oh, it's fine. Um, yeah. Do we have clarity on, um, the health of the other giants receivers? I think it would kind of hinge on that.

Um, Galladay is out for the, uh, Shepard is in Shepard is in Ingramepard is in. Ingram is playing as well. Yeah, I mean, obviously you have to be really encouraged by what we've seen so far. Yeah, he looks like the real deal. Yeah, this number seems attainable.

Playing against secondary, I'm not afraid of. Obviously, there is one side of that that I am afraid of, but he's going to be on his own a ton away from Jalen Ramsey. Darius Williams is out, who is one of the better cover corners in the league. So, yeah, I think that's a pretty friendly number. I would definitely lean over on that. Yeah, that is a nice number. I'm trying to see what we have. We have 67 in the

projection which is nice so the interesting thing here is he's done a lot of work he did it was awesome in the slot what do they do with shepherd and tony and i think that that's why even though our projection is really high i might might be a wait and see for me this week because that matters a lot like we kind of got burned with that last week on lavisca chanel's he got on he got over on the receiving yards on the one catch but i loved i also had over four and a half receptions but he had a massive role change too so not only did he start running deeper routes he actually moved to the outside which isn't something he did in the cincinnati game the week before so i want to see the role change here before I fire up on Tony

because I think that matters a lot. I don't think we've ever seen Shepard really play much outside either. Even in college. Yeah, exactly. So it's hard for me to imagine that role for him to change. I think the way more likely scenario is Tony to be the one who moves outside. Yeah, like Ryan mentioned, the production from the slot, especially in that offense, especially with Daniel Jones,

very, very friendly relative to playing out of the slot. So that's where the money happens from that passing offense. Got some breaking news too with the Cardinals coaching staff. It looks like Cliff Kingsbury out with COVID QB coach, D line coach, a bunch of coaches are out. Vance Joseph going to be calling the shots for the Cardinals this week. Do you think that'll affect the spread?

Cause I know I was somewhat surprised, not too terribly surprised, but I don't put in pretty much next to no work into spreads and totals. Ryan, I know that is an interest or area that you have expertise in. I was a little bit surprised to see the Browns open as three-point favorites. Do you think

that is going to have a significant or even partial effect on the betting line? Probably. At least perception. My first bet of the week, I bet some stuff in the look at market. I always bet Thursday, Friday. I always bet for the next week. Seems like a lot of the sharper action is typically then, right? Yeah. You can get massive closing line value every week. I know that there's some risk in

that. You can have some injury issues that could change it. At the end of the long game, I'm going to come out with more closing line value than i am going to be on the wrong side of the number and um my first actual week six bet that was a week six bet was browns minus two and a half um it was three everywhere at first two and a half two and a half i got i took the browns i just like the matchup with them being able to run here. And again, the weather issues, it just been some things that I think are, that's not a perfect undefeated team. They are currently, but I don't know that I, you know, coming into the season, I think that the Browns or it should be more than a field goal favorites. Browns haven't done anything that made me think that they're not that team. Whereas there's a little bit of noise, I think on the Cardinal side. So yeah, I think

that that probably moves perception a little bit and probably shouldn't get crazy. I wouldn't go chasing it very high. I love the two and a half that I have. I don't know that I would love anything more than three. I think I'm going to probably move to three and a half if it's not already there. Yeah, my numbers there are dead. I got the Kareem Hunt at 46 and a half, which I am just bathing in closing line value on the Kareem Hunt number. I went to get a Nick Chubb number, but he was at 90.5 rushing yards. Hunt was at 46.5, which was insane. Better value.

Is the majority of public money coming in on Arizona prior to this news? Yeah, I don't think so because it had moved back. Oh, from 2.5 to – Yeah, and some of that's tough, right? Because we don't think so because it had moved back. Oh, from two and a half to... Yeah. And some of that's tough, right? So because we don't get... That's a good point. Again, we're kind of going off props a little bit for people today, but those things are hard because you don't get an idea of what the percentage of the number was at three, what percentage of the number was at two and a half. Same thing as markets move. We don't really know when people bought in at large chunks to move numbers.

So take some of that data with a grain of salt. It's interesting, but it's hard to know when people got down on it, if that makes sense. I also just, based on things that I hear repeated frequently, it seems to me that when a team is undefeated at this stage of the season, their numbers tend to be just inflated as a result. And yeah, just the reaction of them is going to be, yeah, just air on the high side. Look how well the Browns played last week, right?

They lost. They gave up a ton of points against a team that we all think is really, really good. But they also hung 42 on them with really limited passing game and nothing from Odell, and they didn't have Landry. But they still hung 42 on them. They win that game. It opens four and a half.

And Arizona, on the other hand, really struggled against a rookie quarterback making his debut start. So perceptions sometimes are win-loss based and not always really what we look at matchup based. I mean, you can run the football on Arizona in a big, big way. Cleveland will even without Chubb. Yeah, of course. I mean, they do it better than anyone and have the best line in the league.

Yeah. I actually got a piece of this next one. Lamar over 230 passing yards he's done this in all five games so far this season um when i saw the new eckler number pop um even though it was a the price was nice um i made a little same game parlay with lamar and eckler um because i think that they kind of play well together what are are your thoughts on Lamar here? I think this fits. It does, yeah. It correlates to the Mark Andrews as well.

I'm buying into this Ravens. I hate to call it a high-volume passing attack, but, yeah, they're throwing the ball more than Lamar has at any stage of his career. Obviously, again, we're talking minimal sample sizes, but the Ravens historically since Lamar has entered the league have been just a run first, run second, run third, pass last option. We're seeing total opposite side of that. Lamar has been over in all games, I think, looking at his passing props, his completions, attempts.

I faded him one week, regretted it, haven't done it since then. Yeah, he's just been routinely going over. He's passing the ball a ton. They're just not set up to run the ball. They don't have the personnel. We're looking at Latavius Murray, who is on his last legs, and that might even be a generous statement. Devontae Freeman, these are guys that are like castaways that are not going to be playing in the NFL next season. Tyson Williams, who showed us somewhat of a glimpse, doesn't even

appear to be in the plans whatsoever. So, yeah, they don't have the personnel. And then further on the other side, this is probably the worst Ravens defense, at least the worst Ravens secondary that we have seen in recent years for quite a long time, actually. So they're giving up a lot of points on the other side of the ball. So I think this team is going to continue to do what works, and that has been airing the ball out, and they've done it well.

So, yeah, I like this over a lot. Love it. You guys are great. I wish we had time to get to all of them. We want to keep this in an hour, but we want to get to the prop tool pick of the day. We have an awesome prop tool on the site at 444.com. It's part of our gambling or betting sub.

Really useful tool that we are really proud of. And producer Sal is going to pick a prop he's been crushing, just picking off of the tool here. So let's see it. Sal, what is our week six prop of the week? Oh, daddy. Darnell Mooney, over 45.5 receiving yards. This is available on FanDuel at minus 114.

Our projection is at 56.5, so we're showing a little value on this one, but a nice little bump up 23% over on the projection. Mooney, what are your thoughts, buddy? I'm buying it. To me, this is a clear case of an example of where we mentioned this a little bit earlier when we were talking about Aaron Rodgers and kind of how where I found value in specific categories. We're looking at recent trends or historical data that simply is not true anymore. And to me, Darnell Mooney is the primary option

in this passing attack. And until I see a scenario where Allen Robinson gets a bigger target share and gets higher volume, to me, there's no reason why Mooney should be placed lower than Robinson on a weekly basis I think it's now the fifth or sixth week in a row Mooney continues to outperform him out target him he looks to be Fields first option so yeah I think this is a really sharp play I like the number and yeah I can I think he's going to continue to serve as the number one option in the passing attack take some shots downfield.

They don't have J.R. Alexander out there. Like, let's go. Let's unleash some Justin Fields. Let him run. Let him throw the football. Let him create plays. Like, take frigging chains off of this guy and let him play football. Yeah, I don't understand what they're doing here.

I would love to see Mooney. We can get, like, deep shots from Fields and Fields running in the same game. Like, Yahtzee. Like, I don't understand what they're doing here. I would love to see Mooney. We can get deep shots from fields and fields running in the same game. Like, Yahtzee. I don't know what we're doing. Is it not the most Matt Nagy thing ever to take a guy who possesses some of the best dual threat abilities, some of the best sheer athleticism at the position? He's so dynamic and just literally make him the second coming of Drew Bledsoe. Yeah, just wet blanket on all of the fields potential.

I don't, I don't get it. This is available again as the, the betting sub, we dropped the price one 34 for the rest of the season. That takes you through the NFL season that gets you our, all of our golf content. Golf is slowing down,

but we do a lot of golf betting content. NBA starts in a couple of days. Rumor has it, someone that's really popular, that's really sharp, might be involved in some of our MBA stuff this year. We're going to have an MBA tool as well. More information on that to come as well. You guys are awesome. We got a couple, we got a minute or two. We're going to rapid fire some of the other ones that are out there. People don't want us to stop. We don't want to stop. We kind of do, we kind of do, but we kind of don't.

um, Anderson over 40 and a half receiving yards. I think that's, I'm guessing that's Robbie. Uh, Robbie. Yeah. I haven't seen it.

I I'm personally leaning under on Robbie. Uh, I know they're trying to make a concerted effort to get him more involved, but yeah, the connection does not seem to be there with Darnold. Obviously DJ more is the preferred option in that passing attack. We do have McCaffrey returning this week. Um but yeah, the connection does not seem to be there with Darnold. Obviously, DJ Moore is the preferred option in that passing attack. We do have McCaffrey returning this week.

I expect his target share to be immense. So yeah, I'm not looking over for Robbie. McCaffrey's ruled out, right? He's done. I'm still not looking at Robbie. I just haven't seen it yet until I do see it. Yeah, Robbie is a wait-and-see. It's just not happening. I like the player, I like the talent, but yeah, it's just not happening i like the player like the talent

but yeah it's just not happening yet when's under 280 uh i don't know that the number is 280 yeah i don't i don't believe it is i know it opened in the high 220s i've seen it as high as 245 five so that might be passing and now kidding me be passing and rushing but yeah let me see what i see when it's at um 264 wow he's moved up quite a bit that's a lot you've let it go yeah i liked it in the 230s liked it in the two low 40s but now it's let it go thoughts on chase edmunds receiving role this week yeah i mean we both have like been on some of this as well. They have a really clear delineage of how they use these running backs in positive and negative game scripts.

And, again, in a spot where weather might be a problem, at least the high winds, you would think maybe lower ADOT passes to someone like Edmonds. He has gone over this, I think, in like four of the five games of the season, so even in some like positive game script so you can tell me on admins at three and a half if that comes out at that number i think that's a really good one agreed um we see davis mills over 199 and a half passing yards um i don't hate it uh we saw a little something from him last week.

Everyone was fading him. I actually thought he looked better. I mean, the bar was set about as low as it could possibly be. Yeah, I'm not expecting a significant leap, but he's been in this offense now for multiple weeks. He's starting. He's obviously somewhat comfortable. It's not the worst skill. Obviously, the running game is

somewhat non-existent. You have game scripts. You have garbage time. I don't hate that, personally. Last one, patiently, Patrick. Ian Thomas, over one and a half receptions or over 13 and a half receiving yards. Obviously, you know, the roles opened up a little bit with Dan Arnold gone. Let me pull and see what our projections are at four for four. We have him for 1.7 catches and 19.4 receiving yards.

So I obviously feel a little bit better about the receiving yards there. Receptions are pretty hit or miss. I took an under on this game at 46 and a half. It's dropped. I think it's going to close probably even closer to 44. There's been one Panthers game all season that's even got into the 40s. That was when they got crushed by the Cowboys. Minnesota would love to do nothing except stuff the ball into Dalvin Cook's belly all day, run that play clock down. This is just a game where it's not conducive to overs.

I think there's going to be pretty low play volume. That doesn't mean that someone can't go over the total. I've been really tempted by a Justin Jefferson over because Carolina's giving up a ton of yards to wide receiver ones, so that's what I'm considering. But it's still just not a game environment for ancillary pieces like Ian Thomas. Agreed. Yeah.

Especially when we're looking at, I don't think he's exceeded three targets in a game. Like you said, he's at best fourth or fifth in the passing attack. It's just a bit volatile and yeah, I'm just avoiding a play at that low of a number. All right. You guys are awesome.

Again, don't forget to follow up. are follow PropStars already. That's why you're here. Follow PropStars on Twitter at PropStars with a Z. Find the show at Move the Line NFL. Again, available anywhere you listen to podcasts. Available here as well on our 4 for 4 football YouTube page. We will be back on Wednesday, Connor and I,

to break down the week 7 slate, game previews, and then Alex, Connor, and I will be back in the same spot, same time, next Friday to talk props. So, for Alex, I'm Ryan. We'll see you next week. Thank you. Yeah!