Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 7 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: October 23, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, Connor, Ryan and Alex discuss their top Week 7 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/ Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4 Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw 4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX 4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx 4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 7 Prop Drop Intro 3:04 Connor Prop No. 1 4:23 Alex Prop No. 1 5:46 Ryan Prop No. 1 7:07 Connor Prop No. 2 8:25 Ryan Prop No. 2 10:04 Alex Prop No. 2 12:53 Connor Prop No. 3 15:00 Ryan Prop No. 3 16:36 Alex Prop No. 3 20:00 Connor Prop No. 4 21:15 Ryan Prop No. 4 23:28 Alex Prop No. 4 24:44 Twitter Questions 55:55 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 58:17 Week 7 Prop Drop Outro

and welcome to move the line prop drop show prop drop sponsored by win bet download the app today enter promo code four for four receive a risk-free $1,000 bet. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined by my two favorite fellow Prop D Gens returning this week after his week six hiatus. It's Connor Allen. Connor, welcome back. Thanks, man. It felt wrong last

week not being on the show. There were some serious moments. I was in a wedding last week. I was one of the groomsmen where I considered trying to delay some things like work some things around so I could do this show. Um, I realized that that would be, you know, ultimate shitty move and I couldn't pull it off, but, uh, you know, I had to smell the roses, make some life decisions and, you know, pull it off. I figured one week of props, you guys could hold it down and it seems like you guys did. So, um, I'm, I'm happy to be back. Yeah. I strongly advised against that.

Someone who recently got married a couple of years ago, you know did. So I'm happy to be back. Yeah, I strongly advise against that. Someone who recently got married a couple years ago, I guess I'm still fresh. And you'll know too, Connor, you're getting married in a matter of months at this point. You're not going to want one of your guys that's like part of everything somewhere else mentally. Even physically, as you would probably have to do to record the show.

So you did the right thing. You're a good friend. Prof Stars and I held it down. Also joining us always in this space is Alex. What's going on, buddy? What's up, Ryan? What's up, Connor? We definitely held it down.

I had a ton of fun last week. I definitely missed Connor, though. We were wondering what you were doing. I mean, we knew you were at the wedding, but we were wondering if you were live streaming at the ceremony or at the reception or the rehearsal dinner. Don't worry. I would be still grinding props at the rehearsal, everything. I think we even gave out a prop in your honor, if I'm not mistaken, as well.

Isn't that right, Ryan? We did. I actually read one of your props from your article. I think I read Mike Williams. Did it? Oh, no. Well, so I think what happened was the other ones were either dead or it was the only one that was playable still in the moment.

Gotcha. So I think I read through them, but Mike Williams won, who has been very, you know, hit or miss. It was a good week, and that was not – that was my worst play. It's all right. Yeah, it's all good. We just – hopefully if you're joining us, jumping in on Twitter, we just fire that out to you guys. Um, jump in the chat. The last half of the show, after we go around the horn is going to be us handling your questions.

Um, so we absolutely love that. Um, also wherever you're listening or watching, you can subscribe so you don't miss a show. We have two shows a week, both in podcast form, also available on our YouTube page. Those links are below no matter where you are for show notes. This is PropDrop, but also on Wednesdays, Connor and I bring on people from around the industry, top analysts in the space, talk game by game, more of a sides and totals betting perspective. So again, fill up the chat. We're going to get started.

Connor, kick us off. What's your first bet of week seven, my brother? All right. First bet is Davis Mills under 220 and a half passing yards. I know that Davis Mills has been playing well the last few weeks. But if you kind of look at the level of competition, right now, New England's pass defense, which started off the year hot against poor competition, just 16th in pass defense DVOA, and the Colts 29th in pass DVOA. Now they draw the Cardinals pass defense, just 16th in past events dvoa and the colds 29th to

pass the dvoa now they draw the cardinals uh past events which is second in dvoa seventh the pressure rate eighth and adjusted sack rate um i am very very certain that davis mills is not good uh and so i'm very comfortable playing this number on anything below anything above 200 we talked about this on our move along wednesday show um you know Davis Mills struggle multiple games to start the season against teams like the Bills and the other game that he played. He barely threw for 100 yards and was struggling so bad against good defenses. Now he plays against another good defense. So for me, I think he ends up with less than 200 yards. I'm considering points betting the under. I know we had a question about that. I just don't see the upside

here at all. And I think that this is a great spot uh to get down on betting against davis mills yeah you've been railing on davis mills unders uh this will probably be your last shot it looks like tyrod is slated to return possibly next week so yeah i can i can get behind that for sure uh next alex we are going to essentially tag team this one. I'll let you go first. We are double dipping on an over here. Yeah, Ryan and I both love Dallas Goddard. I've got his receptions.

Ryan's into the yards. But, yeah, I'm playing over three and a half receptions. This one is a bit juicy. I think I last saw it at minus 150. But, yeah, as we know, there's a lot of things to like. For instance, no more Zach Ertz in this Eagles offense. This leaves Goddard as the primary pass-catching tight end. While Goddard was on the COVID list, Ertz was playing 88% of the team's snaps. He was running routes on 73.6% of Ertz's dropbacks. I'm obviously anticipating, I think we're both

anticipating Goddard assuming that role, basically running around on almost all of Hurts' dropbacks. In games that Goddard has played without Hurts in the lineups, he's eclipsed this total in four out of five games. He's averaging nearly 7.1 targets in those games. The Raiders have also been very generous to opposing tight ends. They've allowed the second most receptions, fifth most yards to the position on the season. Both Denzel Perryman, Nick Kwiatkowski both really struggle in coverage. Yeah, Hurts loves to target his tight ends. I think Goddard's in line for a really solid day versus a pretty soft middle of an Oakland defense.

There is very little meat left on the bone after that breakdown from Alex. So I echo all those statements I'm on. Goddard over 43 and a half. It's minus 110. At Caesars, it's the same number, 43 and a half, at a bunch of books, I think all the way up to like 120. Still bettable. You know, FanDuel, DraftKings, win depending on where you're at.

Yeah, I mean, Alex said it all. Great, great spot against a team that gives it up to the tight end position. They faced really good tight ends, but I think obviously Goddard fits that mold, especially without Ertz as you know, Alex did a good job highlighting there as far as how the routes run targets per route run all spiking in a big way, historically when Ertz is out of the lineup.

So Connor, keep us moving, buddy. What is next for you? Yeah, just real quick on that. That was one of the few, I take notes every week on props that I'm waiting to drop. and that was one of the biggest ones for me and something that i got

excited about i hug emoji that and you're in the discord and i'm definitely on that as well uh big fan of goddard i mean just going forward too like i'm curious to see how the market reacts here i hope that he just like barely beats his number this week and then continuing to keep hitting it just like for like two three three weeks as he continues like his role you know escalation in this offense so yeah i thought 48 and a half would be probably where we came out at i hit no offense over 44 and a half in the same spot last week against the raiders and i think it's as good of a matchup i think actually the game state is even better here this week you know you're in a indoor environment against you know, faster-paced teams.

So even more, let's hit that Goddard number in a big, big way. Yeah. Staying on tight ends here, my second one, Mike Gusecki over 39-and-a-half receiving yards. I don't really understand this one at all. We've been projected for 63. He's gone over this number in five of six games to start the year. The Falcons' defense is not very good. And, I i mean the game state should keep both teams passing the ball uh two and giseki you've

shown plenty of chemistry in passing he's coming off a monster game i think this number is at least 10 yards too low uh it just doesn't really make sense i guess you know potentially some of the receivers are getting a little bit healthier but you know i don't really think that that dilutes his target share too much i mean maybe one target two targets a game but you know realistically looking at this game situation i think that they'reutes his target share too much. I mean, maybe one target, two targets a game, but, you know, realistically looking at this game situation, I think that they're going to be throwing the ball plenty and that, you know, two and him have a good connection. So I'm more than fine playing over 39. I would play up to like 45, 46, to be honest.

I'm surprised they haven't posted without the Devontae Parker news. Yeah, this is a fan duel, by the way. I don't think, well, this is a draft transaction. I think it's everywhere at this point. Yeah. This is interesting. I mean, obviously, if Parker is ruled out, I mean, just Yahtzee on this. I mean, you made a good case anyway.

It's a great play. But, I mean, Parker out for – it's just such a narrow target share. So, good point. All right. Now, my next one, James Conner, over 53 and a half rushing yards. This is minus 115 at DraftKings, Caesars, and MGM. I think this is ideal game situation for James Conner. Cardinals have shown that they are going to run when they are up.

They actually are a little bit higher than average, both with a three-point lead or anything more than a seven-point lead. They actually are running the ball about 4% five percent higher than league average which is interesting and they've shown a real clear pattern on how they're going to use the backs Edmonds is not on the injury report but he's been dinged up a little bit he's really kind of slid into a really clear long down and distance role his rushing a share is like nosedive over the last couple of weeks maybe that's because of the injury but i mean connor is the grinded out clock killer when the cardinals are up we saw it last week we didn't think that would be the game state when they went to cleveland but it was he out touched

edmunds 17 to 7 that resulted in 50 or 71 rushing yards on the ground browns are top three in run defense both epa and dva now we're talking about a game at home against the Texans, 31st and adjusted line yard defensively. Really, really nice spot for Connor. Our projection has him around 68 yards. So I think we're still at least five, six yards. I'm surprised this hasn't moved in the last few hours. So big on Connor.

It should probably be like low 60s, I think, to be honest. I guess the only devil's advocate concern is just that maybe they get so far ahead that even Connor isn't playing. That's the only concern. But, again, that's going to be like mid-fourth quarter probably. That's what means good things happen for them to get there, right? Exactly, yeah. So Connor's probably heavily involved.

Great, great matchup. Yeah, what's your next one, Alex? Yeah, so sticking with running backs, gentlemen, I'm going Josh Jacobs over 57 and a half rushing yards. Saw that's a minus 115 on a fan duel. Yeah, Josh Jacobs is finally healthy in this, excuse me, Las Vegas offense. He's handled 44 rushing attempts over the last three games. It was really encouraging to see that Peyton Barber was a healthy scratch last week.

I was really curious how the backfield touches would shake out after Gruden obviously is no longer coaching. Yeah, it's a great sign that Raiders are comfortable with Jacobs as their lead back. They're going to continue to lean on him. Eagles' rush defense has been downright terrible. Five running backs in the last four weeks have gone over this total. They've all had a minimum of 10-plus carries. Brandon Graham is on injured reserve. He is their best run defender, arguably the best defensive player on the Eagles for the past five or six years, probably. They are really missing his presence. He plays well the run as well as any 4-3 defensive end in football.

I also like the game script potential of the Raiders being home favorites versus just a really struggling Eagles defense, giving up the fifth most yards to opposing running backs, 119 yards per game to the position. It's also encouraged by Jacob's health. He's practiced in full, I believe, the last two weeks. He's been dinged up all season. He's kind of been somewhat ineffective.

But, yeah, I think this is a low number. He hasn't actually eclipsed 60 yards yet this season, but I think this is the time he does it. Yeah, I'm expecting him to see another really healthy workload and just take advantage of a really, really soft middle of the Eagles interior defense. Yeah, you made a good case there. I looked at this one early because I liked it too. Again, I looked at the game state, as we talked about earlier,

and was surprised that he hasn't hit it yet. Could be fluky. I mean, last week they had a nice lead too against Denver, but there's no denying the talent there. Just a matter of opportunity if you still, again, have Barber or something like that out. Clear a path could be a really good spot for him to hit it uh we uh we also have him projected for 77 yards so yeah good good bit over that that total as well yeah i think that's what caught my attention and why i jumped right to it and i was surprised to see like alex

highlighted that he hadn't hit it yet but he i think he doesn't mean he's not gonna hit it this week yeah no i totally agree i have him projected in the mid 70s as well i think he doesn't mean he's not gonna hit it this week yeah no i totally agree i had him projected in the mid 70s as well i think he's actually finished between like 53 and 55 yards and i want to say like four of the games was obviously like right at the door it's just a question of you know this is just ideal matchup for him i just yeah i think he had some fluky kenyan drake stuff last week too where he you know he had a couple big runs he broke a long touchdown run you know that they grind that out you're going to see probably four to five more jacobs carries on that drive and you know boom he's over and we're not even talking about this so uh connor third bet

my third bet is uh ryan tannell over 249 and a half passing yards i mean he started off the season a little bit slow the blowout loss of the Cardinals, but as we discussed, they're actually good defense. You know, since then, you know, he's been playing a lot better. And if you look at this matchup here against the Chiefs, they've allowed the third highest yards per attempt in the league at 8.4, and most opposing passers have more than exceeded expectations this year. Week one, 321 passing yards from Baker Mayfield, 240 from Lamar Jackson,

but only on 26 passing attempts. So his yards per attempt was crazy. 281 to Herbert, 387 to Jalen Hurts, 315 to Josh Allen, and then last week only 182, but it was against Taylor Heineken. So I think that Tannehill falls more into the range of the guys who are successful than not. And so as long as he's getting any kind of volume here, I think that he's going to easily breeze past this.

Also, Julio Jones looks like he's going to play as of right now. Even though he's a little bit hobbled, he said that he's going to be good to go. I mean, Julio does this all the time. He's banged up. He's old. He literally just, you know, toughs it out and will maybe have three catches for, you know, 25 yards or seven for a hundred.

You know, we don't really know what Julio we're going to get get but either way him being on the field is good news for aj brown um but in reality i expect this game game say too to be really back and forth you know this titans defense is not good at all either the chiefs are you know desperate to keep winning they need to keep turning the pressure up and so you know putting the edge on the titans there to kind of keep this game back and forth i like the over in this game and I like that Brian Tannehill to throw for 250, maybe even 300-plus yards, honestly. I'll take some alt overs there as well. Yeah, I was really impressed. I like to play a lot, yeah, but I was really impressed

by A.J. Brown last week as well. To me, he looked about as healthy as he's looked all season. He was explosive in that second half. He really came alive. Yeah, I also was looking at him as a play in this game. I think he's positioned well. I think he's going to be a big option for Tannehill. I love the spot. I think the passing game is going to look a lot better this week. Excellent call. Good job laying it out there. My next one is

Alvin Kamara under 22.5 carries. This is minus 125 on DraftKings. I believe the prop tool that we have in part of our betting sub at 444.com slash plans. Check it out. I think this has it as the biggest value of the week. I know that there's been a propensity to lean on him a little bit more on the ground than we've seen in seasons past. But if you look back over the last 20 games, he's only topped 20 carries three times. He's gone under 22.5 90% of the time. It just doesn't happen very often. And we had it again last week or two weeks ago when they played Washington.

They were up big. I think he got to 16. This is 22.5. This is not a good game environment. I think you're going to have just slow-paced slog with Jameis and, you know, Gino. I think you want to bet over on the punts in this game. I don't think it's going to be a spot where we're going to see a ton of offense. This is going to be low 20s, high teens. Seattle's actually really bad at defending the pass in the running back position.

And I know that that's, you know's a point of contention often in, whether it's prop bettors or the fantasy space, we want to get Kamara those high value touches. They're more valuable than the passing game. I think the road and path to least resistance to get Kamara the ball here is going to be through the air and hopefully coming off the bye, the Sean Payton and company think that's the case too.

I think we see under 20, so 22 and a half. I feel like we're working with a little bit of house money here. I absolutely love this play. Yeah, I do as well. That also feels like an enormous number as well, Ryan. So yeah, I totally am down with backing it as well. So yeah, my next play is Debo Samuel

over 57 and a half receiving yards. This has been a really interesting number to watch today. I believe it opened, I want to say at 64 and a half receiving yards. This has been a really interesting number to watch today. I believe it opened, I want to say, at 64 and a half. I saw it move up to 67 and a half at one point. And then, yeah, right before we went live, it was 57 and a half, which was very head-scratching. Yeah, he's averaging 109 receiving yards per game. With Jimmy G under center, he's averaging 122 and a half receiving yards per game with Jimmy G under center. He's averaging 122.5 receiving yards per game.

I have him projected in the high 70s. Obviously, we know George Kittle is not in the lineup. He's averaging 6.2 receptions per game, a really hefty 17.5 yards per catch. Yeah, he just seems to be Jimmy G's favorite target. Obviously, we know he's returning to the lineup the colts have struggled with opposing number one receivers this year they're also going to be playing without safety just julian blackman uh tyler lockett went over 100 yards cooper cup went for a buck 63 davante parker 77 marquise brown 125 brennan cooks went for 89 yards. Just looking at Debo's game logs with Jimmy G under center this year,

he went nine for 189 on 12 targets, six catches, 93 on eight targets. Week two, week three, five catches, 52, but still had double-digit targets, 10 targets. And then week four versus Seattle, eight catches for 156 yards on 13 targets. Yeah, this does not make sense to me why this number is so low. I know Ryan was looking at this as well. Yeah, it just seems like a really good spot coupled with, yeah, having Garofalo back in the lineup seems to really benefit Debo.

I'm eating a bad number here, but I don't even care. I love the number that I took earlier in the week. Maybe it was yesterday, I think, at, I think, 66. 66. that I took earlier in the week. I want it. Maybe it was yesterday. I think at, I think 66, 66 and a half. I took, we haven't projected for 85 and a half. You know, you did a great job breaking it down.

The culture, a massive, massive pass funnel right now. They are first and run DD VOA second and rushing success rate allowed. And you can pick them apart. And again, like you said, without Kittle,

I think it's the weather concerns here. We're looking at a good amount of rain, possibly some winds, but again, the way that they use debo that makes me less nervous and he's such a yak machine they can still get him the ball as an extension of the run game because they're not going to be able to run and he can still get there even in sloppy conditions i don't uh it just doesn't worry me with the way that he's used connor do you have anything that you want to add to that the yeah, the biggest concern is the weather. Our local weatherman, Chris Allen at 4 for 4, wrote about this. He said basically that the amount of rain could rival the 2019 Mud Bowl,

but there also could be nothing. It's one of those things that I'm very, very much OK with betting, you know, closer to game time. And I already, I think, bet it a little bit with you at the bad number. But, yeah, I think it's something that right now I'm personally just like waiting probably to double down on if it's closer to game time. It's clear because the number we have been projected for 85 receiving yards. So in all things considered, you know, without that, like 85 is normal. But, you know, with the weather, I could see this game turning sloppy pretty fast. Yeah. Yeah. And I don't think it's the bad bet still, but yeah, you can probably wait

because it's fluctuating again. If we have nice conditions, then you're, you're in the high fifties and you're, you're loving life, loving life. Connor, last one, buddy. Yeah. My last prop of the day is something that I actually just played here. So golf, I took Jared golf under 267 and a half passing yards. He's gone under this number in four of six games this season. Now draws one of his toughest matchups to date against a strong Rams defense fourth and passing with Stevie away. You know, Hockinson and Swift banged up. So, You know, Hawkinson and Swift banged up.

So, I mean, I like this one down to about 260. I know that there's a negative game script concern that they're going to be playing from behind probably the entire game. But, like, the Lions have been playing from behind the entire game, the entire season, and that hasn't seemed to matter really at all. Now they draw one of their tougher matchups. And not to mention the Lions, like, when they're in neutral, even like slightly negative game script,

they still are fine with running the ball plenty. You know, they rely on that run to, you know, open up play action, at least in their minds. So, you know, I'm fine with taking the under there at 267. I'd probably play it down to about 260. We have 250 projected. I know the margin is a little bit narrow there, but I just think the floor for golf is really,

really low here in a spot that, you know, should largely be very dominated by the Rams. We want to see Goff do a little bit of something this week, right? It's going to take an L, but we want to see a little bit of, a little bit of things breaking Goff's way. It's going to be a long, long couple hours for him. All right. My last one is Justin Fields over 18 and a half rushing yards.

I got it at 15 and a half, but I'm still going to give it to you because I think it's playable at 18 and a half. This is minus 114 on FanDuel. I don't have a ton here. I mean, no one blitzes more than the Bucs do. That's really nice to see. 39% of the season. It's about 15% higher than your league average team. We saw a season high 14% scramble rate from Justin Fields last week, which is encouraging, maybe feeling a little bit better, maybe a little bit more confident, understanding that his legs are an asset. Running dead on into the Buccaneers front is not a plus EV way to move the football. So I think we're going to see a lot of dropbacks regardless, whether it's him trying to make

passing attempts or not. But again, with that pressure, he, I think he's going to be forced out of the pocket and to use his legs to extend plays. Six attempts last week for 43 yards in a slow game script. I think if we see three to four attempts here, he gets there pretty comfortably. This could be possibly a points bet situation too if you have the stones for that. These are, I think, the ideal spot.

And I think Connor agrees with me. We've talked about that before. You know, rushing yards for quarterbacks when the threshold is low like that, just the range of outcomes of distribution, like 43 yards last week, you know, that's a really nice points-bet opportunity. I know that that was a question.

And maybe we'll circle back to that in a minute. But over 18 and a half for fields, I like quite a bit. Yeah, I was personally shocked when this number came in under 20, Ryan. If you recall last week, we were talking about, I believe it opened at 12 and a half. I played it personally. I made it my column, my weekly column play at 14 and a half. I watched the game, obviously, in full.

It was very encouraged by his legs. He was scrambling. He was effective running the ball. It was finally nice to see that part of the offense open up. Also, we've got some really good game script opportunities versus the Bucs. You mentioned it's just going to be really tough to run against that incredibly front stout traditionally with running backs at the middle. So yeah, I'm expecting his legs to be a very important part of the game plan. I absolutely love that play. And my final prop of the night is geo bernard under 23 and a

half rushing and receiving yard geo has been completely phased out of the offense he only played 12 snaps total last week he really hasn't done much since returning from an lc excuse me mcl injury he is obviously third on the depth chart um he handled two touches last week he's playing a very stingy Chicago defense. They've allowed the 12th fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs. I have him projected at 17 combined rushing and receiving yards. Geo's had four carries on the season total, and that came in one game. Bucks are obviously double-digit favorites. I think it's going to require a negative game script for Geo to get on the field.

Obviously, the Bucs are very unlikely to be trailing in this game. The Bucs also seem very comfortable with Leonard Fournette as their lead back, and they obviously spell him with a healthy dose of Rojo whenever he needs a breather. Outside of one game, which was the Rams game, where the Bucs happen to be trailing, Bernard has maxed out at six touches in any single game. He's averaging 23 combined total yards, but he can help under in three of five. And yeah, four carries this season, Bucs being 12-point favorites. I just think this is a great spot to fade him. Love it. Yep. Very clear how they're using him. So, all right. Well done, folks. This is your time. This is time to fire off some Twitter questions. We have some from earlier in the day.

You're in the chat now on YouTube. Fire away. What are you looking at? What do you want to get? Confirmation bias one way or the other. Anything you're considering, anything you've already hit, let us know. So we're going to cycle back through some of these. I know there were some questions while we were going on the Dallas Goddard

situation. Uh, Justin wants to know what juice would you need for Goddard over four and a half? So I know that Alex bet it at three and a half. If we're in that plus one 20, I think there was another one from Ryan here, minus one Oh two good on four and a half thoughts on that,

Alex. Yeah. I personally would play it at the plus 120 at minus 102. I'm going to lay off it there. I think that's fairly efficient, probably around what it should have opened at. Yeah, I think if plus 120, it's fine. It's like a half unit play. But yeah, I wouldn't play the minus 102.

If you're not getting at least plus 120 i'd lay off yeah we're at uh 3.8 in our projections connor any thoughts on that you're muted i'm not sure if you tailed any of the goddard stuff anyway yeah i did so i'm i'm uh yeah i uh we're yeah i think our projections are a little bit too low. But I also – I think that Goddard's just in a great spot potentially. Like I think that depending on what his points bet number comes out at, if you're able to find like mid to high 40s, I think it's worth it because the floor is not – you know, it's not super bad.

Like, you know, you're looking at – like he's going to see four to five targets, you know, at the worst case. And so I think in that scenario, like you're still looking at like 30, 40 yards worst case. But the upside is like, you know at the worst case um and so i think in that scenario like you're still looking at like 30 40 yards worst case but the upside is like you know 100 yards and you know on seven eight catches if things are clicking for him so yeah i think that's a point spending opportunity as well and that's a first question from twitter from the awful gambler uh can us degenerates have point spending prop of the week. His suggestion was maybe Hopkins receiving yards. Not sure what his lean is on that, which I think is interesting in itself. I thought Fields was a good one.

Connor's mentioned a couple. Alex, is there something that you have in mind, or do you have a thought on, I guess, in general, Hopkins receiving yards? I'm not sure if the awful gambler. Yeah, I think the awful gambler is looking at his over for that line. Yeah, I personally am buying in somewhat to the revenge narrative with Hopkins returning to play his old team. Typically, I caution and suggest people kind of,

I just think it's an overrated concept. But yeah, I actually think in this scenario, I think he is looking to get back at his team. He obviously had a long history, didn't leave on the best terms. He's been an extremely productive player. Yeah, I could see him being the focal point of the offense. I could see Kyler Murray just peppering him with a ton of targets. So, yeah, I think that's a good candidate.

I personally think the fields rushing prop, though, offers the most value as far as the potential for the play and how low the number is. And yeah, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him finish with 60 to 70 rushing yards in that game. So that would be my first choice for a potential opportunity. Scott, stopping by, getting his answer. Yeah, I mean, Connor, what are your thoughts? I mean, I think we've echoed the same sentiment. I know that you've been, you know, you're an experienced points better, Connor. Do you feel typically that when you go after something like this,

you know, a number that's, say, in the 80s or, you know, upper 70s as far as a points bet, is not typically what we would advise? Yeah, so that kind of stuff uh i've done it before and i learned a lot of this the hard way um just don't like you know the floor is a lot lower than you think you know and that like even for like guys like you know dk metcalf and like you know lead receivers it's like you know their point spending is like ends up being like you have to get over 80 and it's like sure they could pop off for 180 or 200 yards they also finish like 40 or 50 or you know and then you're holding the bag on a 30 to 40 x loss and it doesn't really feel too good so i try and you know point out like like what you guys are

talking about like justin fields over under 15 rushing yards the thing is uh is that points bet is getting smarter and they're not posting those anymore for points betting they're allowing you to like bet on them in the binary like you know whatever yes no they're not allowing you to like get the every yard you win your wager back you know type of thing uh so i would be surprised if they post it if they do post it i'm definitely on it the type of guys i i uh thought more about who i would you know potentially look at who i think you know offer a wide range of outcomes and have very high ceilings are guys like McCall Hardman, Henry rugs, Quez Watkins, um,

guys with lower yardage totals that may not see a lot of volume, but they're obviously capable of, you know, scoring a 70 yard touchdown. It's not inconceivable. You'll see them have lines where they have three targets and end up, you know, with a couple of games where they have 150 plus receiving yards.

So those would be the type of players that I would look at for points betting. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Good point. Even Ruggs is getting away from us a little bit, but yeah, historically it's like an MVS. Those have been opportunities in the past with the way that he's used for sure. RP on Twitter, huge Mahomes game, Mahomes game, passing yards over completions, over 39 and a half 39.5 yards.

Maybe that's rushing. I don't know. On a sprinkle of 55-plus yard completions, so like a deep pass, plus 280 on points bet. I'm not sure exactly what he's talking about as far as all of those specific bets it's a little busy but conceptually yes uh big big chiefs output here big mahomes game i think the i'm taking it over on the chief team total this week i wrote about it on the site here at four for four i think the burial here is a little bit premature they're still leading the league in touchdowns per drive 41.8 percent of their possessions that is significantly higher than league average which is 25.3 it's above all the

other elite teams too so like the rams are in second at 35 percent um baltimore whose 10th is closer to the rams than the rams are to the chiefs like that's how much uh how frequently they're scoring above league average they just turn the over, and that'll eventually start to slow down. There'll be some regression there, and this offense will still be incredibly elite. Titans defense is terrible, 28th in DVOA, and they have a ton of issues in the back half with injuries. So this is a massive, massive spot for the Chiefs. I think the game total is crazy high, but I think it's still probably a play, even though you're on the wrong side of a key number. It's technically 57 in this new NFL is a key number

in totals. But yeah, I hammered the Chiefs team total. I love the spot. So yeah, I mean, you can sell me on all the overs. Alex, what do you think? Yeah, no, I'm in full agreement. Just to piggyback on what you said, this just matchup just sets up beautifully for Mahomes and this whole Chiefs offense. I think this is just a great spot. Obviously, you have a team on the other side, too, that can provide a little bit of push. And, you know, I think the game will be competitive enough that it'll keep Mahomes throwing the ball throughout the game. Christian Fulton was obviously placed on injured reserve recently. I think the Titans are starting two rookie corners and obviously against this passing attack

and Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey and Mahomes. That's just going to be an unbelievably tough spot. Yep, but now next one, early value NFL. Next question I thought here, what do you factor more into your decision on a bet? Game script, number, which I'm assuming like price um or you know and number and opportunity so um connor thoughts here i mean obviously it's a little bit of everything to a degree but what i guess how do you approach this um yeah i think that i for me i have just

like different mindsets when i'm looking to bet props so like um you know i'll use our player prop tool which like solely focuses on the value of the number, basically, of like our projections versus that versus like the lines. But then I'll also go through and just like scroll through the lines myself and look for just specific numbers on players. That's how the Gusecki line popped out to me and that, you know, a few of those different things. When breaking down a bet, though, you know, like opportunity like opportunity I think is more important to me than game script, especially when looking at things like receptions, receiving yards, touches. And I think those are the most predictable actually week to week too. So, you know, betting on those types of things is probably better.

You know, it's like, like opportunity. So, I mean, for those who aren't in the fantasy space and just in the betting space, like opportunity is king and those are like, that's, it's very highly correlated with, you know, success't in the fantasy space and just in the betting space, like opportunity is king. And those are like, that's, it's very highly correlated with, you know, success just in general. So that's something that we harp on and that's something that I've, you know, tried to make an effort to translate it into the prop betting space. So for me, and then the game script is just like a bonus because I think

Bet the Prop actually did some good research, you know, last year, the year before, basically saying that books largely adjust for game script. And, you know, that, you know, betting on running backs with, you know, that are supposed to be favored by a lot of betting their overs on closing numbers, at least, you know, is not necessarily a profitable endeavor. But I personally think that the game script, you know, adds in a certain floor. So like, you know, the Cardinals very likely are not going to be losing to the Texans.

So, you know, the floor for James Conner to get whatever, 10 plus carries is very, very high. And I'd say the odds of that are, like, super likely. So while it may not increase his total touch count compared to what it would have been, I think that, you know, the floor there is much higher. Yeah, and just to piggyback on what Conner said, if you have any doubts that books don't account or build in a projection for game script, just all you need to do is just look at the opposing running backs that the Bucs are playing on a week-to-week basis. You will see the lowest rushing totals that you'll see all year.

So yeah, I think that obviously is built in. So it's not something really that you're going to have to factor in nearly as much as some of the other things that Connor discussed and listed listed yeah to echo connor's point too like um you know we do our wednesday show wednesday you know the preparation for that show i think is probably what i would consider the heavy lifting meat and potatoes research part of my week that starts to structure this show for me as far as my process goes. And through that process, because I am a square donkey, I'm always thinking about overs. Who do I think is going to exceed projections first? Who do I think is set up to be in a really good spot? So I make some notes on some guys that I really want to get on as soon as I possibly can.

I try to set my own number or a range that I think they're going to be at. That way I can react in the moment when I see that number pop. I tie that into our projections, kind of, again, get some confirmation bias to see if, you know, I really respect John Paulson, who does our projections. I really want to see if I'm way off or if there's something that I'm missing here. And if it's even higher than my number is, there we go. And then as far as unders, I'm using our prop tool on site to see if there's anything that those projections think or buys, massive buys the opportunity.

Because again, my brain just naturally goes to overs. And I think, I know we want to lean unders. I think there's more outs for unders historically, but I also know that I want to lean on what I'm comfortable betting first, find that, kind of flush that out, and then see what's out there as far as the under market goes. It made sense to me intuitively that Camaro over 22.5 is too many this week,

and then it's validated in our projections. So find what you do well or what you're comfortable doing, and then make it work. So, all right. Some other questions that we have here in the chat. Appreciate it, guys. Keep firing them off. We really, really appreciate this.

There's a lot of stuff in here. Just want to make sure I didn't miss anything too far up. Yeah, one quick note here. Overs are way more fun. Life's too short to bet the under. I mean, yeah, absolutely. I mean, way more fun. If you're just going to watch a game, I mean,

just take an over that you think is sharp, you know, whatever like follow i mean if you're looking for pure entertainment that's taking over but taking over on the player prop even more so than a game right like don't don't give yourself a heart attack worrying about a side you know grab a prop on a guy that you like so yeah way more fun way more fun uh dan no pitman or Waddle props. You know, no, Dan. Currently, no. We love Michael Pittman. Don't force us into defending our Pittman love here. And I don't know that there's anyone in Connor's life that he loves more than Jalen Waddle.

Jalen Waddle, man. He is entrenched in the – he kind of divorced himself from the Dolphins takes, but he's just – he's hugging on to that wall take so hard, and he's getting paid off for it. So, so far, so good. Gino Smith from Jason, nine and a half rushing yards. Seems like a lot more realistic as last week he was higher and he didn't even attempt to run.

We talked about a few of these last week, Alex. What are your thoughts here? Yeah. Yeah, it was tough watching Geno Smith last week. He didn't seem to really use his legs whatsoever, not even just as far as rushing attempts were concerned. He wasn't even escaping pressure with his legs. He seemed pretty content just being pretty statuesque in the pocket.

There wasn't a lot to go by that I would personally look for. Not saying this obviously can't go over, but just based on the very minimal data we have from this season, very small sample. I'm just hard pressed to make a strong case either way. Connor, any thoughts? I mean, our projections have him at like 13. But yeah, I mean, not something that I'm super stoked about. I think that, like, just in general, too, like betting on bad players to do like random things, I think is just a tough like ask for me. So you know, I'm a big fan of betting on bad quarterbacks to be bad. And you know, it sounds very simplistic. But you know, I'm a big fan of betting on bad quarterbacks to be bad. And, you know, it sounds very simplistic. But, you know, I think that the floor on these guys is just super low.

So unless, like, I personally don't have too good of a read into Geno or what the hell he's going to do, you know, every Sunday. And so I think that for me, like, pretty much all of his props is either just an under or, you know, stay away. Yeah, I can get behind that for sure. All right, what do we got here? Kyler Murray, under 266 passing yards. And then Tua here. Any opinions that jump out to you there, Connor?

I know that you love Tua. Yeah, I actually almost played the two over. I think it's just, I mean, it's another great matchup. They're passing plenty, you know, despite him. He's just very, very inconsistent right now. You know, he had some of, like, probably the worst interception of the season in maybe the last few years where he threw to no one against the Jaguars. And, I mean, that was just pathetic.

But, you know, he also makes great plays from time to time. He threw for over 300 passing yards. You know, he's,. He's largely very accurate. I think that there's plenty of potential for them. I think the number is still a little bit too low. We have him projected for 260 plus. If they get into a shootout, I think that he could easily throw for

300 again. I think the ceiling is pretty high there. I would probably lean over on 251. I really like... Sorry, Red. No, I'm sorry. 262 is our projection for Tua. 284, obviously with 285, Alex, for Kyler.

I really like Tua this week, personally. I gave out his completions, actually, to my Slack earlier in the day. Yeah, I was really encouraged last week. The Dolphins are on pace to be potentially the worst rushing team or one of the worst rushing teams in NFL history, even just from a straight attempt standpoint. They are

just not running the ball whatsoever. Tua has this perception just based on last year, which I don't feel like is accurate presently, that he's a low volume passer and that yeah because of these kind of weird wonky game scripts last year where the defense and special teams was scoring at an abnormal rate and Tua's they were also running the ball a lot more effectively the Dolphins last season so yeah now we're seeing a lot more volume out of Tua I think that's going to continue to be a trend I think he's a very accurate passer when it comes to the short and intermediate routes. The matchup is obviously positive

too, and you're just getting really good value, in my opinion, on his completions, on his attempts, just based on the historical split. So yeah, I really like supporting or backing Tua this week. Alright. Jack, what show do you think this is, man?

Come on, man. If he's still tuned in, I mean, we got to, I mean. I'm just busting balls. You want to answer it? This is quite the question. Should I trade Dallas Goddard and McLaurin for Kelsey? I already have Diggs and Debo. I'll have to start Devante Parker this week,

but after Diggs and Debo already passed their bye weeks. Connor, thoughts here? I don't even know who he's trading. He's trading his Goddard and McLaurin for Kelsey. I don't know. I mean, do whatever makes you happy, dude. Yeah, with these types of questions, it's like hard to answer without knowing the scoring settings, without seeing your roster, without kind of knowing what your record is,

if you're in a position where you're fighting for your playoff life or you have to win out or you have a comfortable lead or you're playing for a buy. So there's just so many factors that make it very difficult to answer a lot of questions pertaining to fantasy trades and stuff without seeing it. I got to see your 12-man full-point PPR. I am a big fan of trading away two of your own players for one player. To get an elite upgrade, of course. Yeah, exactly.

Especially, like you said, that he already has other players in that position. So he's fine. He should probably make the trade. But for me, like, you know, just in your league, like unless you're playing for nosebleed stakes, just do what is going to make you have the most fun and most enjoyable, especially if the trade is close. Like, you know, if you love Kelsey, just trade for him.

I mean, I'm not going to shame you. But I agree with Connor. Yeah, the chat is great. I advocate always for being on the receiving end if you're trading two players for one and obviously the one the reason you're trading two for one is to get a significant upgrade so yeah i think that's a plus ev the chat betting on whether he'll make the trade is great oh it's so good laying Laying odds on it too. Thank you guys. You guys are the real MVPs here. That's awesome.

Ramondre, any thoughts on Ramondre Stevenson's role in New England? His receiving line is at 11.5. The Ramondre stuff is interesting. So he ran a higher rate of routes last week than Brandon Bolden did, which is kind of what Brandon Bolden has kind of taken over in that pass catcher role. The interesting part is Brandon Bolden played 71% of the long down and distance snaps, and Ramondre did not play any of those. So Ramondre was targeted and used in the passing game,

but not necessarily in the prototypical third down, you know, pass catching role, I guess that you would say. But again, Ramondre, his skill set is really good, probably the most talented all around back on that roster. I think that there's been a lot of encouraging coach speak coming out of New England about how they want to continue to incorporate him into the game plan. So I think he probably continues to wedge into that Brandon Bolden role. So you can sell me on 11 and a half. I don't know that it's a play for me currently, but Alex,

you seem to agree a little bit. Yeah, I do. Absolutely. I've also been very encouraged by Ramondre and his role in the offense seems to be growing and expanding. We've also seen Damian Harris struggle a little bit with efficiency. He's been dinged up a bit too. He obviously had a crucial fumble

and stuff. So he's one bad play away from seeding that job to Ramondre. So yeah, there's a lot to like. Some of his numbers did entice me. I didn't make them official plays or play them privately. But yeah, I did think he did offer some value today. One thing I was looking at was his rushing attempts at six and a half. I do think that is a solid bet to go over this week. I also think it presents the sort of game script required being big favorites, obviously, versus a porous team. So yeah, I am keeping a very close eye on this backfield. It would not surprise me whatsoever within a week or two if he's, you know,

splitting work almost 50-50 with Harris. Yeah. Connor, thoughts, buddy? I know you've been on the Bolden thing a couple times. I know, yeah. I kind of, like, unfortunately got burned by it a little bit last week just because they did switch up the roles a little bit. Like, Bolden had, like, pretty much all the passing down, like, work locked up.

And then last week, as you mentioned, you know, Stevenson started eating into it a little bit. I'm personally just kind of, you know, staying away until there's a little bit more definitiveness about Stevenson started eating into it a little bit. I'm personally just kind of, you know, staying away until we there's a little bit more definitiveness about Stevenson. Cause for a while I just thought it was bullshit about like, you know, they were talking about Stevenson and then he didn't even, it wasn't even active and then talk of Stevenson and then he'd play a

little bit more and now it's just like all over the place. So I think eventually it'll get there. And so there will be value. But I just don't know if the markets will react to it accordingly and they probably will, but I just don't know if the markets will react to it accordingly. They probably will, but I just don't know yet. If you hear the coaching staff like McDaniels and Belichick talk about him, he gets heaped with praise. So they're not like giving out like empty compliments to players just to like hype guys up. I feel like when they back someone, especially publicly, it carries some some weight and uh yeah so i've heard growing things about him i was also kind of on the shelf where

he was at i wasn't really seeing it until yeah i just saw him uh just role expand more and more i do think he's positioned really well and something to definitely pay close attention to next we hear from jonathan uh two uh 24 and a half completions uh we lean under projection wise at 23.3 but again that's not necessarily a bettable projection for me uh this is line jumbo to either of you uh connor you first i think alex bet the over we talked about the two overs i'm in on the over i like i think that uh two is always an over um but you know just i think in this spot specifically for reasons that a Alex laid out earlier, I'm into it. Yeah, I bet it at 22.5. That's a number I had for my slack.

I wouldn't personally bet it at 24.5. I'd definitely lean over on it personally. But, yeah, I don't think it's a play at 24.5. If you can still find it at 23.5 for plus money, I'd look at that. But, yeah, 24.5, I'd personally advise staying off of it. But I do really like the over and I anticipate him having quite a few completions. This one jumped out to me. Question here from Jason Mixon, 58.5.

We have a really hefty projection on Mixon this week. It kind of surprised me a little bit because this was popping in our model this week in our betting tool. Our Mixon rushing yard number 83.4, which is rich in a projected negative game script against Baltimore, who has been, you know, pretty good against the run, I think. Let me validate that with some stuff here. Decent, not great.

I'm ninth in the success rate. They've given up some big plays, but fifth in adjusted line yards. Alex, what are your thoughts on Mixon? This number really interests me, too. I was really curious to get both of your thoughts on it. It also opened 58.5, and then I think it was on DraftKings it was 66.5, so there was a big range between um draft kings and fan duel at one point i'm not sure if um they caught up to

each other but yeah this is a really interesting number the one area the ravens have played well defensively there for the front seven is still um very stout i don't think they've allowed a running back to eclipse 60 yards yet this season. So, yeah, Mixon has been one of the last true workhorse backs. He's on a short list of not very many guys who just plays a massive role for the team's running back position. I do think the volume will be there, the game script. I expect the game to be competitive. So, yeah, I've been kind of seesawing back and forth. I don't want to spoil my column,

but I do like Mixon's receptions yards a lot this week. But check my column out if you want more take on that. Nice. I like the teaser. Look at this guy. Professional, you know? I'm watching him become a man in front of my own eyes. I love it.

You guys said it all. I don't have much else. Good stuff. Matt wants to know, DK Metcalf over 58 and a half receiving yards. It just looks so funky because we're so used to seeing DK 85 and a half, right? So, yeah. Obviously, different scenario with Genoith in a matchup against a you know saints defense that's been i don't know i think they're a little fraudulent but they've

been pretty darn good so far if you look at some of the metrics uh connor any thoughts on on dk um i'm not betting on anything tied to geno smith and uh dk is a you, MF an animal and just, you know, an absolute men among boys. But, you know, he just I can't do that right now. I agree. Alex, you too? Yes. Same thing. Just like you guys summed it up perfectly. Just being tied to Gino Smith. The number is obviously enticing. And, you know, at first glance, you're like, man, this looks like tremendous value. But, yeah, just having to rely on Go Smith delivering the football is just bad news.

Producer Sal also mentioned that he did not practice today with a foot injury. Yeah, I'm projecting the right line there, too. Running back in Seattle. Oh, it was DK that didn't practice today? Sorry, I thought it was Geno that didn't. Okay. Yeah. Oh, man, can you imagine? I don't even know what that answer is.

Yeah, I didn't either. That's a rough scene. Antonio Gibson catches at least one pass per game over 9.5 I assume receiving yards here. Yeah, I mean he's obviously dinged up as well. Nice game script considering they're 7.5, 8-point dogs against Green Bay. Alex, any thoughts on Gibson here? Yeah, I can get behind this. Obviously, it's low enough of a number where it just requires one catch.

We all know the fact that he is a converted wide receiver. We haven't necessarily seen it translate the way that I think a lot of people who are Gibson backers or truthers including myself expected we he's kind of you know been more of a traditional running back running between the tackles you know I anticipated him being kind of closer to like Marshall Falk as far as his pass catching ability or his dual threat ability is concerned so yeah we haven't really seen them kind of unleash him in the passing game in the way that we want to but yeah we've seen glimpses of it he's obviously more than capable um it is a little bit scary versus green bay the way they grind clock and just keep the

opposing offenses off the field but yeah i'm expecting green bay to basically move the ball at will versus this washington football, potentially positioning Washington to have to deploy him or abandon the run and use him more as a receiver. So, yeah, I like it. Hunter Henry, any thoughts on Henry plus three catches parlayed with scoring a touchdown at plus 290? You lose me on the touchdown a little bit. And by a little bit, I mean don't do this.

Just because, I mean, like I've railed on touchdown props. They're fun, right? So to Connor's point earlier, if you're going to bet it over, if you're going to bet it over, if you want to bet a touchdown prop, like, just don't. You've never lived if you've never parlayed first touchdown props. That's true. It is an exciting experience.

You hit one leg and you just feel like you could be a millionaire in like 20 minutes. You know what I mean? And it never happens, but you know what? It's, it's a little bit of, you know,

if you need a little adrenaline boost, if the unders aren't, you know, you know, calling your name anymore, just go for it. But yeah, it's a thrilling experience.

Generally, I would say plus two 90 is not nearly enough. I wouldn't even bet on under Emory at plus two 90 to score a touchdown outright, let alone three plus catches. Totally. Generally, I would say plus 290 is not nearly enough. I wouldn't even bet on Hunter Henry at plus 290 to score a touchdown outright, let alone three plus catches. Totally. So, you know, yeah, I mean, I'd probably need closer to like five to one for that. But I don't know. I mean, I think that Hunter Henry's role is up, you know, is interesting, though.

But, yeah, I think that there's different ways to play it. If you like them both, Edward, bet them separately. Just, you know Just being honest. You're not going to get a good price. If you're paying $290 for that to be parlayed, I can't imagine what the touchdown number is for Henry, plus $185 or something ridiculous like that, that it shouldn't be that.

Side note about same-game parlays. DraftKings same-game parlay thing is just the biggest load of bullshit I've ever seen in my life. They don't even list the odds there. You're just clicking random things, looking at the odds at the bottom and most of it doesn't even make sense. You'll add a leg that's not even correlated and it'll add plus 200 or whatever on the sixth leg of your

parlay, which is normally a massive leap. After the first two legs, it just continuously jumps higher and higher. At least FanDuel is kind of honest about it. They tell you what the odds are and you know you're getting like shitty, you know, suit out of it. DraftKings is just letting you, you know, whatever, poke around and guess on the random legs.

And I mean, yes, if you're going to do same game parlays, I mean, I can't prove to you that they're worse odds, but I've tried to do the same bets on different websites and it's almost, it is always worse on DraftKings. So, yeah. I think I just saw either Caesars or MGM just roll out same-game parlays as well. I haven't checked to see if the setup is better than FanDuel or DraftKings, but, yeah, worth checking out.

Hey, WinBet, there's an edge for you here. Get into the same-game parlay market and do it better than anyone else. Just give it a shot. People love them. Yeah, try being better than everyone else for a little nice little spot. Maybe you'll make it on Bleacher Report betting. That's the life goal. That's the goal,

right? Alright, I'm going to fly through a couple of these real quick and then we're going to get to the prop tool bet of the week. Jacoby Myers, over a half a completion. I want more than four to one. Kyle Ustchek, over 15 and a half yards receiving. I mean, this is a no sex play if I've ever seen one.

We talked about the weather conditions there. Fine. You can sell me on that. The rest of the backfield is getting healthy, though. I understand that maybe he has a better role without Kittle, but I'm staying away from Juszczyk. We have 24 and a half projected. We love Kyle Juszczyk every week.

Every week. We also love Cordell Patterson every week. Me too. I love Cordell Patterson every week, gentlemen.. I love Cordell Patterson every week, gentlemen. I'm a Cordell truther. It's worse, so no problem with that at all. All right, Producer Sal, let's do our prompt tool bet of the week. Sal. All right. What do we got here, Sal?

We have Jalen Hurts. Connor's already moist. Rushing yards over 42.5. Minus 115. 58.1 is our projection. Really nice number here. Connor, you are, I'm sure, lathered up and ready to go. Talk to us about Jalen Hurts.

Yep, all in, all in. No, I don't know. I haven't really looked at that one, but I like it. I think that, you know, it's a good matchup. The game should be back and forth. This is – I like the over in this game in general, so playing overs in games you like to go over the total it's generally a good idea um and 42 and a half it's been about the same line most of the time and he was going over that way more like

early and then last last year just kind of slowed down a little bit but um yeah i think that this could be a good over spot yeah listeners if you were new to the show you don't know that connor has a um jalen hurts onesie that he sleeps in every night. Alex, what are your thoughts on Jalen Hurts? Yeah, I actually like this quite a bit, too, having watched Hurts play every snap this season. Yeah, I think this is a good spot for him, for sure. recall correctly too we saw lamar um eclipse 100 yards rushing versus the same uh raiders defense on monday night or sunday night football whenever that was week one or two um yeah i think this is really solid yeah i like it too so i think we got another winner here buddy which has

been a theme for you in this spot again this is our prop tool which is available with a betting subscription at four for. We have sliced the price there. Definitely worth checking it out. Again, you can find that at 444.com slash plans. It's going to include some NBA stuff, which is coming soon. We're also really still betting and firing off at golf tournaments, which is fantastic. So very active Discord.

You're getting all of our prop bets basically right as we bet them and getting a little heads up even before we hit the books, that way you're ready to go too. So very active Discord with some really smart people engaged in good conversations even when Connor and I and the rest of the crew aren't there as well. So last question before we wrap it up, Matt and Under the Wire, where are we at this week on Julio?

Obviously a great game setting for julio uh i know that we've been dealing with some injury question marks trying to find where we have his projection i think we're buried and we maybe don't even have him playing currently anyone have a lean on julio it's just you know we see him gut out so many injuries not questioning his toughness but at this stage in his career i'm not sure that he's able to be that effective um as as playing hurt essentially um yeah i think he's more of a decoy i think he kind of helps aj brown more than he necessarily will make an impact obviously that's not to say if the number is discounted enough or provides enough value i will bite i bit last week got a little bit lucky with that circus catch i'll take it but yeah he

does not seem like he's 100 healthy i know he didn't practice today and yeah he's just not a guy that plays he plays through injuries but he doesn't look like the julio we're used to seeing when he's playing through injuries so he's clearly operating at less than 100%. So, yeah, just not a spot I'm looking for necessarily. Yeah, I think I agree with that, Connor. You too? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Tough to bet on him.

Tough to bet against him just for me. Maybe a live bet. I don't know. See how he's doing. Yeah, no, I agree with that. You guys are awesome. Thanks for hanging out and keeping us company here. Again,

don't forget to subscribe, rate and review. We really, really appreciate that. It helps other people find us. That way we can continue to help as many people as possible.

We'll be back on Wednesday, Connor and I, and then we'll be back in the same spot next week. So for Alex and Connor, I'm Ryan. Thanks for hanging out. Yeah! next week so for alex and connor i'm ryan thanks for hanging out