Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 8 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: October 30, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, Connor, Ryan and Alex discuss their top Week 8 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u  ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 8 Prop Drop Intro 3:00 Connor Prop No. 1 4:22 Ryan Prop No. 1 5:43 Alex Prop No. 1 7:37 Connor Prop No. 2 9:41 Ryan Prop No. 2 11:13 Alex Prop No. 2 13:10 Connor Prop No. 3 15:48 Ryan Prop No. 3 17:47 Alex Prop No. 3 19:55 Connor Prop No. 421:24 Ryan Prop No. 4 23:03 Alex Prop No. 4 24:45 Viewer Props Q + A 1:05:48 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 1:08:34 Week 8 Prop Drop Outro

yeah hello and welcome to move the line prop drop show prop drops brought to you by win bets download the win bet app today and a promo code four for four receive a risk-free thousand dollar bets i'm ryan noonan joined by two of my favorite fellow prop d gens coming off an excellent week seven first connor allen connor what's good buddy uh everything is good after last week let me just tell you that i felt like everything we talked about turned to gold uh you know we went uh you know nine and three on the show particularly, but including our prop tool bet, 10 and three. I mean, not to mention that we lost the Jared Goff under by half a yard. We lost Dallas Goddard's reception by one reception or half a reception.

I mean, we were very close to just a clean sweep. We were touching it. So, yeah, pumped to get back at it, man. It was good stuff. Let's replicate that again. And joining us, of course, as always in this spot is our man PropStars. Alex, how are we feeling today? Gentlemen, what's good?

Ryan, Connor, great to see both of you. I'm stoked. We went 10-3. I'm ready to go undefeated this week, though. That's what I'm talking about. Love it. Well, we appreciate you joining. Wherever you're listening or watching, subscribe so you don't miss a show.

We have two shows a week here from Move the Line, both available in podcast form and available to watch on our YouTube page at 444. Those links are all available in the show notes. If you happen to be listening to the podcast on, say, Saturday morning, join us on Friday night next time in the chat. We really enjoy that part a lot. This is the Prop Drop, as you know. On Wednesdays, Connor and I bring on some of the best analysts in the space

to go game by game. We break down basically a matchup show, looking at all the angles to bet every week. So after we go around here, I'm going to share our favorite plays of the week. We're going to try to take as many questions as we can. So please fill up the chat. Fire away, as always.

You can join us while we're talking about ours. You can start to fire off questions now. We have some Twitter questions as well. And then we'll also hit on our player prop tool, bet of the week that producer Sal has been rolling and crushing as well. That was part of our 10 and three mix last week. So good stuff. I also want to note,

we have drastically reduced the betting sub at four for four. Good through Sunday only. The betting subscription is $44. I don't know whose decision this was. We were supposed to be in charge of some of this stuff. We were not consulted on this. It's a great deal. That's going to get you access to literally every single piece of content on our site from now until the end of February. Literally everything. Incredible offer. I think access to our Discord chat alone is worth more than that. So 444.com slash plans. Again, get with us today. It's also in the show notes. Check it out. Connor, get us started, buddy. What is your first prop here in week eight? Yeah, so my first one is Jalen Hurts, over 252.5 passing yards.

I get that he's been really volatile, but now draws Detroit secondary, 27th to pass the DVOA, dead last in EPA per dropback, and allowing nearly nine yards per pass attempt. I mean, I think that this team really, like a lot of people will talk about, oh, well, they haven't allowed that many passing yards. They haven't allowed that many passing yards because no one has been able to have to – they don't have to throw on them because they're winning by so much because this team is so bad in general.

Now you have a game with the Eagles where they're only three-point favorites. It should be back and forth. If you look at how Hurts has done against similar defenses that are, you know, in the bottom five of most metrics, which so far is the Chiefs and Falcons that he's played. He threw for.387 against the Chiefs,.267 against the Falcons. Now Miles Sanders is on IR, so you're looking at a place where they're probably not going to establish the run anytime soon. So I think that the volume alone should get him there and that he should be able to hit

the over on that one. Man, you love yourself some Jalen Hurts props. I mean, Jalen Hurts is another guy we talk about in a little bit here. It's just like almost every week, if they're in a matchup, it's just like, I mean, I don't lose with them. That's the thing is that if you keep winning, just keep hitting them. Keep going back to the well. I'm going to jump in here and tag team it.

My first one I'm going to give is Devontae Smith, over 61 and a half receiving yards. Kind of pairs well, obviously, here. Available on Draft available on draft kings minus 115 you know the box scores have been up and down a little bit obviously you know as connor mentioned you know jaylen's been a little bit erratic but i think wheels up for the slim reaper this weekend in detroit it's halloween right slim reaper like it's just kind of all coming together uh lions have given up 85.1 yards per game so far this season to number one receivers.

Excuse me. They're trotting out a – it's just the worst coverage unit in the league. Their top corner ranks 103 out of 113 in PFF's coverage metrics. They have multiple other undrafted dudes that are getting starter snaps. They're so beat up that they have a 4.740-undrafted safety in the slot. Dean Marleau, it's just not good. I think it's going to be just destruction there. I think it's going to be a back-and-forth game. And the usage that we're seeing for Smith,

even though the box scores haven't been great, 94% of the team's passing attempts. He's run a route on. He's got 24% target share, 32% of the air yards. I mean, that is way out in front on that Eagles roster. So I'll absolutely love him this week. Big playability. He can do it on limited touches.

So Devontae over 61.5. All right, Alex, first one for you, bud. I don't know if you guys noticed, but I actually had the Jalen Hurts prop in there as well Alex, first one for you, bud. I don't know if you guys noticed, but I actually had the Jalen Hurts prop in there as well as my first one. I was going to go with his rushing yards, but I was just scanning the board for a while and I pivoted out after I found another prop that I really like. It's just funny that we're all on Jalen Hurts this week or we're going to be. But yeah, my first one is Antonio Gibson over 50.5 rushing

yards. I saw those at minus 110 on MGM. Gibson's been over in five of seven games so far this season. He's not listed on the injury report. He practiced in full. I know he's got a shin issue, but he seems to be playing through it and he's been somewhat effective. He's had double digit carries in all seven games so far this season. No Curtis Samuels, no Diami Brown. The Washington football team is going to have to run the ball, in my opinion, in order to stay in this game. The Washington football team's offensive line is also fully healthy for, I believe, the first time this season. On the other side, the Broncos are just getting torched on the ground, especially recently we saw Dernis Brown go for 146 yards last week. Najee Harris had 122 the week prior.

Latavius Murray even went for 60. Josh Jacobs had 54. They've allowed an opposing running back to eclipses in their last four games. Also on the Broncos side, Mike Purcell, who is arguably Denver's best run defender, has been ruled out for this game. Vaughn Miller is also highly questionable, and 50-50 to play in this game. The game projects to be close as well and competitive.

I think it's going to produce the type of game script necessary to get Gibson in that 12 to 15 carries range. My opinion, that's all he needs to hit this over. The number's low. I'm buying it. 50.5, Antonio Gibson. I love it. Love it. Yeah, make low. I'm buying it. 50.5. Antonio Gibson. I love it. Love it.

Yeah, make some good cases for that one for sure. Connor, what's your number two, bud? Mute. Yeah. Oh, I got caught on the mute. I got caught on the mute. This is the other guy I was talking about. Davis Mills under 22 and a half

passing yards. It's like a, you know, like a checklist for me. It's like, is Davis Mills starting, you know, yes or no. Yes.

If he playing against the top five defense, yes or no. Is the over under somehow over 200 passing yards. Yes or no. If so, bet the under right now we're at 222 and a half passing yards. I don't understand what the books are doing. Like I understand he had success against two defenses that,

which are, you know, good or average, you know, in the Colts and the, the, the Patriots, you know,

he threw for plenty of yards against them. But then when you look against teams that, you know, actually have good secondaries, the Cardinals second in DVOA, the Bills first in DVOA, now playing against the Rams fourth in DVOA. I also get some Panthers at the time with JC Horn,

who were, you know, an elite defense through those first few weeks. He didn't throw for more than 168 yards in any of those games. They still clearly like to rely on the run. I think this should be closer to like 205, 200 in general. So, yeah, I like the under here for sure, and I think that I'm just going to keep taking bad quarterback unders,

which will lead me to one of my next picks as well. So I definitely like that play here. On the prop sheet, we just leave Jalen Hurts and Davis Mills in Connor's section. And then he just edits out the, like the yardage and then the price. And then he just fills them in for the next week. So he really only has to come up with two new plays every week. Alex and I have to, we come up with four. Conor just, you know.

But at this point, you know, he's cashing checks with them. So, like, he's not going back to the well and getting drains. That was Alan Lazard. You know, we stopped doing that. You know, these are cashing for him. Sorry, you seem disappointed

with the Alan Lazard reference. I apologize. Yeah, I think I'm one in two on the Alan Lazard props this year. Yeah, both. The first one was on one catch for 30 yards the second one he caught all three of his only three targets on like 18 aaron rogers pass attempts in that game or something like that it was just yeah bad it was rough uh next one for me deontay johnson over 68 and a half receiving yards uh this is also on DraftKings minus 115. I've seen this at other books as well.

I think the price is pretty comparable. Obviously with Juju out, Ebron out today, we just have kind of a condensed target share in Pittsburgh. And Deontay is like the first look. He's been targeted on 28.9% of his routes this season. That's the fourth highest rate in the league. Got to love to see that. In games when he's played more than 25% of the snaps in the last couple years.

We've had a couple games where he's left early due to injury. He's eclipsed this rate 67% of the time. You got to love that. It's a nice little hit right there. Browns are also basically one of the best run stuffing units in the league. They are among the leaders in dvoa epa per play explosive run rates i think they're gonna have a tough time on the ground here they're gonna have to use that short to intermediate passing game basically basically as an extension of the

running game and i think you see dionte absolutely feasting here i also took uh plus money at him on six and a half receptions as well um i think that this is a really nice spot for him. Our projections have him in the low eights, eight and change. Yeah, and I think that's like plus 105. But I love the 68 and a half yards. As someone who had a big play on Chase Claypool a couple weeks ago, it's really frustrating to see Claypool like not even on the field basically, and they just pepper Deontay.

I absolutely love the spot for him. Yeah, good call. For sure like that. I'm thinking about hugging that, you know, on our Discord. Hug that bad boy. Get in there. It's not too late. Alex, what's next for you, bud?

Yeah, I like that play as well. The following prop I'm going to do pairs with that nicely, but before that I'll get to one of my – Saw that. I like that a lot. Yes, indeed. Yeah, so one of my favorite props of the week, just came across it, Cortland Sutton over 58.5 receiving yards. Sutton leads all wide receivers in air yards, 948 on the season.

The Washington football team has given up the second most yards to opposing wide receivers this season, 1,443 through seven games. Jerry Judy has not yet been activated, nor did he practice today, which puts his status in serious doubt for this weekend. Sutton has 30 targets over his last three games. He's cleared the total in all three games. He's averaging 94 yards over that same span. He looks all the way back from that ACL tear

he suffered last season. He's operating at full health. He gets an absolutely pitiful Washington secondary. William Jackson III, Washington's top corner, is questionable. He missed last week's game. His absence would obviously be an even bigger boost. I have Sutton projected at 70 yards, and that's with Judy playing. I could see an even larger game in the event that Judy's unable to suit up.

Sutton right now just appears to be one of the most physically dominant wide receivers in football. I was just shocked that this number was in the high 50s. I totally anticipated in the mid to high 60s. I love this spot for him with or without Judy against a very vulnerable and suspect Washington secondary. I think the Judy thing is probably holding the line down, right? I mean, that's – yeah.

We're also looking at, like at he might not even play. It sounds like today they were really unsure. They're hoping he does, but you're going to get some really nice closing line value if we get a scratch on Judy here come Sunday. I might be telling that. Also, Producer Sal added Corlin Sutton leads the league in air yards.

135 a game. 948 on the season. Insane. Love it. Connor, you the season. Insane. Love it. All right, Connor, you have a type this week. We're going to keep it going with your third bet. Yeah, okay. I didn't take all unders, which is pretty good,

but I did take, I guess, all the same position. So Mike White, under 223 and a half passing yards. You know, it's just that type taking bad quarterback unders here. But the former fifth-round pick out of western kentucky now making his first nfl start against the bangles defense which has been you know pretty strong so far eighth and past the dvoa 14th and adjusted sack rate i think they proved to us last week that they are in fact an actual good defense uh and that you know i think we were a little concerned about some of their matchups prior, but now they're also playing an offense that's going to be one of the worst in the league, most likely with Mike White at the helm.

Corey Davis is also on the wrong side of, you know, questionable. I think that he probably doesn't even play in this one. So you're looking at a guy like Mike White, you know, making his first career start against a tough team without his top receiver. Again, this is another one where 223, I mean, it seems short in terms of the spectrum of quarterbacks, but in terms of, you know, him as a player, I have no idea why it's this high. Besides the fact that, oh, people are like, oh,

we threw for 200 yards last week and a half. Well, that was coming in, you know, it gets a Patriots team, which is already up like 30. And, you know, there're just checking the ball down. Of course, they're just going to sit back and let them take five, 10-yard checkdowns the entire game. Like, that doesn't even matter to them because they've already won the game. They were just – they were getting out of there. I mean, they benched their starters like in the – like, you know,

at the start of the fourth quarter. So, for me, I think I put like almost zero stock into that. You have an entire week to game plan, specifically for Mike White. Even Zach Wilson only cleared the summer two of five starts a season. So, I mean, Mike White is an inferior talent, I would suggest, to number two overall pick, Zach Wilson, who even though he's looked pretty bad, I can't imagine that Mike White is much better, if better at all.

I mean, I would say he's almost certainly a downgrade. So I think he'll end up with fewer than 200. If you can take any alt-unders would i would definitely be into that as well i might points bet the under on this as well that's what i was gonna ask you uh cory davis was in fact ruled out for this game too was he all right perfect there you go yeah i saw doubtful just before we started but yeah i'm uh only more reason to like that one quite a bit i just realized that we are almost completely siloed off by position. Connor has four quarterback props today.

I have four receiver props. Alex has three running back props. And then he just gave us the Portland Sutton one. So we're like almost very specific. It's like niche down even more. It's not intentional. I definitely have a type this week for sure. And it's funny that Connor is too and we're on the same trend but uh next one for me is uh aj brown over 69 and a half receiving yards minus 115 on

draft kings um actually i played this at 69 and a half earlier before the julio news i think this is in like the low 70s right now fine like you know, anything under 80, 85, like, you know, I think I'm fine with that. I saw, I think, 73 and a half earlier. I'm sure it's going to continue to spike. You know, historically, these matchups, the Colts have really tried to take away Derrick Henry as much as one team can try to take away Derrick Henry. But stopping the run is actually the strength of the Colts defense. Top D in run D DVOA, a second in rushing success rate is basically a quintessential funnel for

the pass here. So A.J. Brown is absolutely balling right now. He is playing some of the best football of his career. He was not active the first time they played back in week three, but last couple of weeks in nice matchups against Buffalo and Kansas City, hauled in 15 balls for 224 tan hill's playing better it looks like offensive coordinator todd downing has started to find his groove a little bit like we're seeing a little bit more of the play action some of the stuff that worked for tennessee in years past we're starting to see again uh just has a double digit target day for brown all over it we know his efficiency and after the you know after the

catch skills are through the roof. So anything over mid-70s here for Brown, absolutely love that play for him. Yeah. I mean, he is fully cleansed of his Chipotle issues. Just say that. That happens pretty quickly, the actual cleansing. It's the recovery, I think, post-cleanse is the issue

that needs to get you back on the field. I love the play as well. Just watching A.J. Brown over the last few weeks, he is over that little early season slump that he was experiencing. He looks like he's just set to have an absolutely monster second half of the season. Been extremely encouraged by everything I've seen from him. I'm absolutely going to tail that play. I love it as well. Yeah, so my next prop leads me to Najee Harris under 105.5 rushing and receiving yards as a combo prop. Harris has been held under in three of six games to start the season. He's looked a lot better of late, but I think the Browns are going to make life very difficult for him

and dominate the line of scrimmage versus a pretty putrid Pittsburgh offensive line. Browns have surrendered the sixth fewest rushing yards and the seventh fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs. Ryan was talking about how they rank first in DVOA versus opposing running backs. The Browns have only allowed one running back this season to even eclipse this total. That was Austin Eckler in that huge, crazy shootout versus the Chargers a few weeks ago. Cleveland also ranks first in time of possession. Nick Chubb is due back. I expect

Cleveland to dominate clock as usual, keep the Steelers and Najee off the field. Also noteworthy, Anthony McFarlane was activated from injury reserve, the fourth-round rookie from last year. He's a second-year player this year. Steelers really like him. I don't expect him to put a significant dent into Najee's workload, but he could get a series or two, which would obviously strengthen this play a little bit further.

Yeah, Harris leads all running backs with an 86% snap share. I have to imagine the Steelers want to bring that number down a little bit. So, yeah, I'm fading Najee under 105.5 rushing and receiving yards versus a very, very stout Browns front seven. Yeah, I like that call, buddy. I mean, it makes a lot of sense. I think they're going to have to get him the ball in the passing game a lot. But, again, like I think he's going to really struggle on the ground.

So you still have such a nice bandwidth to work with when you're kind of splitting it up between, you know, rushing and, you know, receiving work. So, all right. We each have one more before we do. Just a reminder. There's a bunch of you in the chat, a bunch of you watching. Fill up the chat. Let us know your questions, anything that you have questions about, things that we've shared, any feelings on those. And again, things that you've bet that you want us to tell you awesome job or,

you know, you want some, you know, some feedback on something that you're eyeballing. We're going to get to that right after we go around the horn one more time. Bring us home Connor. All right.

My last one, it is the last bad quarterback under of the week. Justin Fields under 17 and a half completions. He's gone under this in four or five starts so far. And now they're going to be playing a game where if you kind of look at what the 49ers are going to do, which is going to be running the ball. And I think that they'll be able to run the ball pretty successfully without

Khalil Mack. And definitely with, I think a key mix is probably going to play this week, but he's going to be a less than a hundred percent. And now, and a bears team that in one score games right now, they're running the ball at the highest rate in the league, 57% once we're games, the, they're running the ball at the highest rate in the league, 57% one-score games.

The next closest team is Jacksonville at 50%. So they're 7% higher than the next closest team running the ball in one-score games. It's just crazy at what they're doing. They're just entirely taking the ball out of Fields' hands. And in this one here where it's not like the 49ers offense is going to put them into some negative game state like we saw last week where they basically just let Fields do whatever towards the end of the game.

And even then, even when they were losing by 21, 28, didn't matter, is going to put them into some negative game state like we saw last week where they basically just let Fields do whatever towards the end of the game. And even then, even when they were losing by 21, 28, it didn't matter, they were still running the ball to get the ball downfield. And so for me, I think that this one, especially with it being close, it's just going to be a lot of running back and forth. This might be the shortest game of the week just because the clock is running the entire time. So I think volume is just going to be low in general, and I think that

fields is probably going to be a lot closer like 15 14 completions than uh you know 18 or 19 seems like the bears goal is to get back on the bus do they have goals i mean yeah i guess that that would be it yeah it's not uh it's not pretty it's not pretty at all but uh i'm gonna stay in the same game and i am going to take an over. I'm going to take an over on Debo Samuel, 69.5 receiving yards as well, 115 on DraftKings. This dude went out in an actual real-life monsoon last week and balled out for 7-100.

Like, I know that the clock is going to be ticking here, but he's a yak machine. His usage is through the roof right now. Only magnified with kid, a lot of lineup. He's going to be out again. Last week, he saw 40% of the team's targets,

35% of the area yards, which is weird considering how they typically use him. And a lot of, you know, low a dot stuff around the line of scrimmage. But again, he's a massive yards after the catch guy. They manage his practice reps a little bit this week. Like he up on the wednesday injury report uh but he was no diagnosis

on friday like he is completely clean he is ready to rock and roll uh bear surprisingly ranked dead last in dvoa against wide receiver ones this season um you just look at like pure yards per game they're not getting crushed but they've just been really inefficient against it. Again, that's going to factor in things more than just raw yards, kind of why DVOA is, again, not super predictive, but it's really descriptive of what's happened in the past and why we use it quite often. Yeah, I mean, he's averaging 108 yards per game so far this season.

I think he gets really close to that mark, so 69.5. We have him, I think, projected into the mid-80s again. Again, really clean game without Kittle. Debo is absolutely the man. So I gave you four wide receiver overs all in like the 69 range. Want to have a real nice show for everybody. So Alex, bring us on, bud. Yeah, so this is my last one.

It's Nikeem Hines over 11 and a half receiving yards this number just jumped off the page to me uh the colts have been leading the majority of their last four games they haven't been playing from behind or really needed hines in his usual typical role as the two minute back or their primary pass catching back. The last time these teams played, Hines went for five catches for 54 yards. If you're into, like, historical things, Hines has cleared his total in 40 of his career 55 regular season games. This number is just severely suppressed and discounted, in my opinion, just too low considering the potential game script in this game versus the Titans. Hines' role in the offense as the primary pass catching back and to be a drill back as i mentioned he

needs one catch to eclipse this number in my opinion he's due for some positive regression this is a great spot for him to cash in on a really no number i'm buying this discount i just think this number is way too low i think we're going to see the colts trailing in this game which they haven't done very much over their past four games and yeah i think we we're going to see the Colts trailing in this game, which they haven't done very much over their past four games. I think we're just going to see some positive regression from Heinz. We got a game pick in there a little bit from ProfStars as well. Talking about

game state here. I think we're going to have a negative game script for the Colts. Titans backing in there. I won't tell anybody. I know they're not here for that, but they get a little extra play from you. All right. Let's jump into, I guess, some Twitter questions. We'll dig into those first.

Again, this gives you time to continue to keep firing off in the chat. I promise we will make it. We went through that a little quicker than last week, so we have a little extra room, and we'll get to your question. I promise. All right. On Twitter, Mark wants to know. People's props uh love itself uh justin jefferson 87 and a half receiving yards he didn't tell us if he's leaning one way or the

other he's not giving us a lean here but uh does this jump out to either of you seems like a high number to me he's probably going to deal with a lot of digs. Yeah, the number seems high. Obviously, he's been really productive, really consistent this season. I do expect him to be potentially chased around by Trevon Diggs throughout the game, which could make the matchup a little bit more difficult for him. Also, without Dak being in the game,

I'm not sure how much Minnesota is going to need to throw the ball. I'm expecting them to have a pretty run-heavy offensive game plan. On the other side, I expect the Cowboys to also run the ball as well. I could see this game playing pretty fast. So, if anything, I think the number's a little bit high. Pretty efficient, though. Don't really have a strong lean one way or the other. Connor, any leans here?

Yeah, I was projected for 94 yards, but, again, I think the game stayed. And, like, everything with – I mean, if Dak doesn't play, I mean, God, this is going to be – like, they're just going to run the ball 30 times with Dalvin Cook and get out of there. Like, you know, I think the game's pretty much over before it starts so i'm banking on dac playing i do have dalvin over 17 and a half carries so i'll take that either way definitely definitely on that as well um i was i would have shared it but that's there's nowhere to be found today same thing with the zeke i have a zeke over as well that's off the board completely but uh i don't know i feel like i think i feel like dac's gonna

play um just my lean based on some of the things that they're saying um that would obviously change this game in a massive massive way the thing i'll say about digs he is a risk taker um so he's giving up some big plays and they play a lot of man and kurt cousins historically has been fantastic against man coverage. So with a number like this, like we're a little bit over it, not a margin that I would typically bet, but like Jefferson's a dude that has like his range of outcomes is massive.

And, you know, with a big play like this, he could blow way through it. So if you have a lean, trust your gut, go with it. I don't want to talk you off of it.

It's not a play that I'm going to make as you know, we record this now, but I get why you would be on it because I think that there's some wide range of outcomes and some upside volatility there that could definitely benefit you. All right, next, Eric Bassner. What do you think of Carson Wentz over one and a half touchdowns? That is minus 105. Alex, thoughts on Wentz and touchdowns here? I know it sounds like we're shorting the Colts a little bit. Yeah, I think this is pretty good. Obviously, Tennessee has not been good versus opposing wide receivers.

I think they've given up as many passing yards as any defense in the league. They're starting two rookie corners. Yeah, Wentz has obviously looked a lot better in recent weeks. I can see the Colts having to throw the ball and trail in this game. T.Y. Hilton being back certainly helps things on the Colts' side a bit as well. Yeah, I think this is pretty solid. Wentz touchdowns, Connor? I think that there's so much variance. is pretty solid. Wentz touchdowns, Connor? I just think that there's so much variance.

Jonathan Taylor could have three touchdowns here. Even if Wentz gets them down to the one every time and they score a lot, it's just... Unless I think this game is going to be in the 60 to 70 points range, I probably just wouldn't touch something like this. Big same. I would need plus money on something like this.

I just don't. Sorry, folks. I don't love touchdown bets we just don't we just don't love them like they're just uh there's to connor's point like he could be balling out and then there's it's a singular event it is we have another question that i think we'll get to in a second they're just very they're very hard to predict in that for it was just easier to predict usage for me especially too like when i handicap something like like if I'm right, I want to win the bet. Like there's chances with touchdown bets that you can handicap something entirely perfectly and be wrong and still lose, I guess, you know,

if that makes sense. Like you could be like, oh, Wentz is going to crush, you know what I mean? And then he crushes, but he only throws one touchdown somehow. You know, like those types of things happen. And that's what I hate that. And it's happened before, and I've learned that the the hard way but that's just my take on it uh next eric wants to know i'm sorry this is uh this is mark again at mo alley cox 21 and a half receiving yards yeah i mean this usage of the tight end position for the colts has been pretty maddening um i mean mo alley coox is a guy that I wish was getting

more, but it is a low threshold. Let me see what our projections for Mo Alley. We have him at 36.4, so that's a healthy lean over for us. But again, we're dealing with such a low threshold here. The variance at three receptions

is pretty massive. Since nothing that I would tell, Alex, do you have any feel for that one? No, I think the number is pretty efficient. I'd lean over on it. I like what I've seen out of Mologa like Cox. I echo your sentiments. He should be more involved. But, yeah, the volume is low.

It's hard to really bank on that. So, yeah, I'd lean over but don't have a strong take on it. I mean, he ran 11 routes last week. Like, you know, he – Seems not good. Yeah, yeah, I lean over but don't have a strong take on it. I mean, he ran 11 routes last week. Like, you know, he – Not good. Yeah, it's just not enough. Not conducive to large receiving games. Exactly.

At BetTheOver on Twitter, can you talk about any time touchdown odds in general? For example, Mixon is minus 105 on FanDuel. So it's like 51-ish percent probability. He scored in five of seven games, which would be 71%. He wants to know, is FanDuel baking in regression or is he a sucker for taking minus 105? Make it make sense, he said. So five of seven he scored in in is definitely again, descriptive. It is what has happened.

You think in a game against as 10 and a half point favorites against the jets, he is in a position to score touchdown. Um, while that is definitely true, um, I think that part of the reason that touchdown props are so bad is because they aren't prop, they aren't properly priced based on the actual probability for them to happen. So just because he's hit a five of seven doesn't really dictate anything moving forward. Do I think he probably scores a touchdown here? Yes. Is this a bet that I'll ever make?

No. Connor? I'm trying to think. Yeah. No, I think you did a good job laying out most of it here. It's just... You okay over there? Me?

Yeah, dude. I have an asthmatic cat that makes, like, a lot of really loud sounds. That's what you're hearing. I'm like dying. I'm like, is Alex like, you know... It's my cat. Alright, well, again, Alex may be on a long day.

Maybe he had Chipotle for lunch. I don't know. I'd put her on the mic, but it'd be kind of hard. She's on the mic. You can hear her well? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Come here, sweetie.

Come here. Yeah, yeah. I mean, bring her up if she's going to be, you know, so vocal, you know. There we go. Someone's talking about a catapult. What's up? Yeah, she's got really bad asthma, so she breathes really audibly through her mouth.

I saw you laughing. I was like, oh man, let's beat Delilah. Alex is getting really comfortable on the show. Just letting it go. Alright, well, we'll get back this i'm sorry i i couldn't i just couldn't ignore that um so for um all right next question you got it you got it

uh touchdown don't don't mess with touchdown don't mess with touchdown props. Don't mess with touchdown props. Uh, early, early value NFL. Um, uh, do you feel that your best bets come from opening lines, uh, early in the week, Thursday, Friday-ish when some of the players don't get featured as much come up later in the week, like Saturday or Sunday, are we able to take advantage of mistakes on them? Um, yeah. Alex thoughts on this. Yeah, Alex, thoughts on this? Yeah, so I do think that there is a lot of value to be had right when the lines are dropped, obviously. So yeah, I do find a lot of value early in the week. You can pounce on a lot of numbers that I feel like aren't necessarily efficient. Then conversely, there are a lot of lines that come out late Saturday, early Sunday, the same thing where there's just props that are being held.

So I think the two sweet spots are generally very early in the week, or at least for me, at least this season, early in the week, and then late Saturday, early Sunday tend to be the two sweet spots that I've found. I think both is, like, such a good answer. Like, I don't know. I mean, I think, yeah, there is some great value early on. But this year it's less and less, honestly. I think that there's, like, you know, two or three that I think are usually pretty ripe for the picking.

And then a lot of them are just based on, like, I guess whenever they release. And then I think that the injury edge of just like on Sundays is going to always exist because there's nothing sportsbooks can do about that. And that's like probably one of the biggest edges still. It's just being able to hammer, you know, overs or unders on props based on a backup, you know, playing or not playing and kind of how the projected usage changes there. But I think you have to understand the scope of, like, you know, the usage in general prior to firing on that because, you know, like, how does Jerry Judy impact Sutton or how does he not? So, like, for me, you know, like, I don't know if he's going to play or not, but, you know, 58, I think 58 and a half, 59 and a half right now is a great play. You know, it's a good play.

But, like, it becomes, like, a must play if Judy, like, for sure is out. So, I mean, even up to, like, 65, you know it's a good play but like it becomes like a must play if judy like for sure is out so uh i mean even up to like 65 you know probably in that range so i think that that's like those are the types of things that you know understanding that is important yeah that's a good point for sure i think the one thing is is that we're so used to and connor and i spoke about this on our wednesday show this week. The sides and total market's uber efficient. We know that. Especially as we get, even on a Friday, really betting into it is just

the death of you long term. The pro market is not. You can get a bad number. We had it last week with Debo Samuel. I had Debo nine yards higher than Alex gave it out on the show because I took it like a day before. But because of all the weather news, that line plummeted. And yeah, Alex got the best number.

And we always want the best number. It's the intent of the show. We're trying to get you the best number. We're trying to always get the best numbers. But just because I didn't have the best number didn't mean I had a bad line. He crushed it. He cleared it by 30 yards. So like you can get a bad number in this market and it doesn't mean that it's a

deadline because these are not efficient markets to begin with. That's why we are spending time doing a prop show and not, you know, going as long here on sides and totals on a Friday afternoon because those are really efficient markets. So I think you can always want to be plugged in whatever your system is it makes you know find it and make it work for you um that's why i love communities like our discord because we have a community that's kind

of shopping together we kind of share some stuff like i dropped a list this week on wednesday and said hey at me when any of these pop if any of you see any of these at me, because these are things based on the work I've done already in the week that I like these spots to be over typically based on, you know, like I like these matchups. I want to see what the number is and maybe I'll chase them. So those things really help to have a community to help kind of do that. Um, because you have to find a system that makes your work. You can get a dead number and it can still be good, whether that's Saturday night or Sunday morning just before kick. So let us do the grinding for you because I know it's hard,

and that's kind of why we're here and what we are actually paid to do. And we do it for ourselves. We have more fun when we have community wins like we did last week than when we're hoarding wins. I love that Connor kicked ass last week. That feels way better. Um, just community wise to have us all printing.

So, uh, let's do it all again this week. Are those at the end of the Twitter questions? You guys are kicking butt here in chat. And let me get back to the top and let me see what I can find here. There's plenty. So there's a lot.

You guys are awesome. Oh, keep the prop stars stars stay for the free food you got a little bit more than the free food there too oh man uh dan listen dan like this is my guy i we know this you're pushing it on us okay don't be a pitman pusher i've got to take on pitman we all know i do too yeah the splits with ty hilton on and off are extremely alarming i posted this in my slack earlier i think in 11 of 13 games that pitman and ty have played together pitman's been held under, I want to say, 44 yards. Obviously, he's ascended as a player. He's gotten a lot better. He's only had one game sample so far with T.Y. this season.

But yeah, T.Y. seems to be the preferred target in the offense. I just think the number, well, I would play it in a heartbeat if there was no T.Y. Just with the Colts not being a high-volume passing attack, it's just hard to take this over this week for Pittman as far as I'm concerned. Imagine saying something bad about Michael Pittman on this show. I love the guy. It's tough. I'm just joking.

Connor, contrarian take. Yeah, I kind of lean the other way. I just said I don't think that Hilton at this point, especially when he's banged up, maybe he's fully healthy, I think, that you certainly lean the other way. Just that I don't think that like Hilton at this point, especially when he's banged up, like, you know, maybe he's fully healthy. I think that you certainly make a great point. But now like kind of banged up, he's still only questionable. I think he's shaping up to play. But, you know, what kind of role does he play?

Now he draws, you know, a Titans defense, which has allowed the most yards to opposing wide receivers so far. I think that it should be, you know, decently back and forth here. And he leads the team in, you know, air yards, leads the team in target share. And so some of that probably takes a hit with T.Y. there, but I don't think that he's healthy enough to make it too big of a difference.

So that's my take. I still, I think, I mean, the number is like 62. I think that I still like the over there. Shout out to PropStars. Hashtag GOAT. Hard to argue with that. We love this. Up 1 a.m. in the UK.

Thank you, GF. Appreciate you very much. Thanks for hanging out. All right. My man, one man, one chance gave us a big one here with lots of little details. He's writing an article for us, which I love to see. Jonathan Taylor, combine rushing receiving number of 99.5 minus 115. Any thoughts on the over here? He's got some other little tidbits. Hitting 5 of 7. He just passed 4. Gave us a little game state here. Good stuff here. Listen, I've been on the wrong end of multiple Jonathan Taylor receiving yards numbers this year

where it's just like it always pops in our prop tool as like a buy. Even last week, he got three targets. He caught three balls, three yards. Sometimes they just don't throw to him at all, and it's just really weird. It has been turning up. He has been splitting long down the distance stuff with Heinz a little bit he has been you know taking a little bit more of that passing game work but I know Alex you're already on a Heinz over any thoughts on JT here yeah I'm high on JT I do like the player quite a bit uh the number does seem efficient to me I

would caution with JT if you look at previous games, a lot of these numbers, like when he's gone over, have included like a very large carry or a very large reception where he's just busted off like a 40 plus yard gain. That's difficult to account for, difficult to project, and difficult to count on. So yeah, that's why I would caution somewhat or err cautiously regarding some of his numbers just because, yeah, it's just hard to predict a 50-yard-plus game every season – or excuse me, every game. Yeah, it's tough. Any leans there, Connor?

Our projections have him like way over, but we also have him projected at 30-something receiving yards just because he's so explosive. But, yeah, I think like you said, like betting, running back, receiving overs is something that I've started to shy away from after we just got, you know, buried in them early on and uh i felt like i had the right side of you know a lot of them and just didn't pan out there i think they're just a little bit too volatile um so yeah for me i think that the 99 and a half is fine uh i would definitely lean over but it's you

know tough for me to play i agree i also agree $44 is a steal. $44 if you missed the top of the show. You can get a betting sub at 4 for 4 for the rest of the season through the end of February. You're going to get some NBA content in there. You're going to get some golf content in there. You're going to get us all the way through the Super Bowl. It gives you every piece of content on the site. If you're a DFS player, all those tools, projections, the prop tool that we're going to show you in a little bit, $44. That's like half a bet. I mean, come on.

What are we doing here? Get in the Discord. Let's dance. Worth its weight in gold. Absolutely. I'm kind of creeped out that Alex sleeps next to me. Okay. I don't know if you guys noticed.

I've got Jonathan Coachman, the host of Sportsline. Yeah, that's the picture right there, right? That's the picture right there. This is my guest room, so actually I don't sleep with Coach in my room, but any guests that come to the PropStars residence. They're sleeping with Coach? They're sleeping with Coach. Love it.

Absolutely love it. All right. What else we got here? Dean? What's up, buddy? Eagles seem like a tough team to figure out. Outside of Hertz, as a fan, what do you think? Prop stars.

Yeah, I'm from Philadelphia area. I have a rooting interest in the Eagles, so I do monitor them closely. This season has been difficult. I think Hurts has played a little bit above expectations, a little bit better than people expected, just well enough to keep them out of a top five pick, which I think will ultimately hurt them. I haven't looked a lot ahead towards this draft class, but I do believe there aren't any premier quarterback prospects, or at least like there have been in recent years. If I were somehow in control or the general manager of the Eagles, I'd personally gut the roster. I'd hold on to some of the young talent, obviously, but I think I'd get rid of all the aging veterans and just look to rebuild for

the future, probably tank for a season, acquire as many assets as possible. Yeah, I just don't think – I think they're a bottom five team as far as talent is concerned. They're lacking on both sides of the football. I don't think Hurts is a long-term answer. I'd probably see what I have with Minshew, give him a couple starts just to see if he's a viable backup. But, yeah, I'm not high on the Eagles, both short and long terms.

Future. I get it. DFS, Jalen and Devonta, yeah, I'm not high on the Eagles, both short and long terms future. I get it. DFS, Jalen and Devontae. Yeah, I mean, if you don't build a Jalen, Devontae, DeAndre Swift team this week, what are you even doing? Are you even living life? I feel like those are going to be really popular and make a lot of sense in the DFS streets.

Crazy to be under on Josh Allen, 283.5. He's only hit this once in the last five games against Miami. I mean, not crazy. Anyone have thoughts on that one? I mean, you're kind of banking on the game getting out of hand to the point where Buffalo is going to like, you know, step off the neck a little bit, so to speak, um,

of Miami and probably lean on Singletary and Zach Mosswell, more Moss and Singletary, which they haven't really done, uh, much, you know, they obviously are super as aggressive as any team in the league. They continue to throw up multiple scores.

So yeah, that is, even though historically it may seem like a plus ev play i just can't uh it's hard to make a solid argument outside of just the potential of buffalo smoking them and backing off a little bit for that under to hit yeah and for me when like i look at you know i think that looking at how often a player hits a number is important but more specifically in a sample that i think is most relevant to what you're trying to project so you know like how often is josh allen hitting that number this year first like how often is josh allen or like how often is josh allen hitting it versus

defenses that rank similarly in terms of stats you know what i mean like or a spot where he's a double digit favorite exactly like those types of things like comparable rather than like just you know player versus team over x amount of years because you know miami's defense last year was a lot better than they are this year um and you know well maybe you know i mean they're definitely better you know they're definitely better i mean regardless of the output you know but their efficiency was a lot better so it's like those types of things that i think that you know some of the players three years ago weren't even the same like you know play like they didn't even have the same guys. So, I think that's just, like, not as relevant as, like, other factors. Couldn't agree more.

I think you nailed the – hit the nail on the head with that. Have fun when you're watching these games. No one wants you to watch that game and have an under on Josh Allen. Yeah, that's why I like betting against bad quarterbacks. It's fun to root against those guys. They're suckers. You know, like, they just stink. There's a million bets on the board.

Yeah. Yeah, go grab something other than the Josh Allen under. root against those guys. They're suckers. They just stink. There's a million bets on the board. Go grab something other than a Josh Allen under. Unless there's a large discrepancy and if you have a projection that you trust and there's a lean there, we're over. We're at 298 on Josh Allen. He is our number one

quarterback in our rankings for the week. All right. Deontay. You got a Deontay at 67 and a half at about 365 dance let's go uh cole commits 26 and a half receiving yards i mean we're we're not banking on a whole lot of completions we're not banking on a whole lot of plays there uh anyone have a lean on cole commit i know j know Jimmy Graham probably out again, I believe, so I get why there could be some buying opportunity.

Yeah, I mean, outside of Mooney, Komet seems to be his preferred target, but we're talking about a very low volume, and, yeah, it's hard to trust any pass catcher in Chicago's offense. They're just, like we mentioned been mentioning earlier in the show, they're just going to run the ball. They run the ball when they're down. Yeah, this game projects to be competitive as well. So, yeah, I just, it's hard to envision Komet receiving the sort of target share

or volume necessary to have a big edge on the over. Yeah. CPAT. I don't want to put CPAT out there just in case producer Sal, I don't know what his prop tool thing is. I've been CPAT sometimes, so I'm just going to take that off the board. Maybe we can circle back to that. I want to make sure that I'm not stepping on producer Sal's toes here. Sal says we can talk about CPAT. Any CPAT thoughts?

I'm super high on CPAT. CPAT, to me, is the MVP of the Falcons, at least this season. He's got six touchdowns. He has been the Falcons' most consistent player we've seen. Finally, the Falcons' coaching staff has made the shift from Mike Davis to CPAT. He out-touched them 16-4 last week. I expect that trend to continue. It was a little curious to see him.

I guess, you know, they're not trying to give him 20-plus touches, so I do think that the receiving work may fall off a little bit. We did see an example of that. I think he only ended up with four targets. Previously, it had at least six targets, I believe, in every game. So, yeah, I do think he has earned the role that he is going to be featured in this Atlanta offense. He's been their best offensive player so far.

Very versatile. I'm a huge fan of the guy. Probably too big of a fan of him, all things considered. He is still CPAP. But, yeah, I like his over a lot this week for rushing yards. And, yeah, I'm expecting him to have another big week. Connor, you in there too? Yeah.

Well, the explanation here on his name from that guy is very nice. And, yeah, I'm expecting to have another big week. Connor, you in there too? Yeah. Well, the explanation here on his name from that guy is very nice. C.D.A. Patterson, Cordelein Patterson. So I think that it was interesting last week. So they came out of a bye and they gave him 16 touches to Mike Davis' four. So, like, you know, to me that signals that they planned to give him the ball a little bit more, at least use him in positions where he could get the ball more. But Mike Davis still played 60% of the snaps. I think that probably a little bit noisy, but still I think that they want Patterson

to be the lead guy going forward. So, yeah, I think you would probably still take some overs on him. I'm just, like, not super bullish on anyone on this Falcons team in general, to be honest. I think that a little bit of the edge is gone I will caution too that Carolina has been unbelievable at covering opposing running backs out of the backfield through seven games I believe they have allowed 80 yards receiving to opposing running backs and the next best team is the chargers who have given up 160 yards to the position so yeah they are blanketing opposing running backs so i would look at his russian prop before i'd look at

his receiving prop they're also getting shack thompson back who's a very good coverage linebacker so yeah i caution against any running back receiving props in that atlanta carolina game just based on how well and how well the panthers have covered backs out of the backfield. 13.9 yards per game to the position. Number one in DVOA against running back passes. So good transition. Professional show right here. Kenny Gainwell receiving prop.

Lions, the other side of the coin, dead last in pass-catching DVOA running backs. They are absolutely giving it up. Gainwell got some nice work last week. Obviously, he is set to have a little bit more longer runway this week with Miles Sanders out. He is likely going to be featured more in the passing game than he is in the uh backfield as far as carries are concerned he kind of gave up a lot to boston scott but he ran a route on 56 of the drop backs last week and was targeted on 30 of his routes run which is a really nice number for a running back again that game uh was they were playing from behind and um yeah, I know Connor and I,

we talked about this the other night on the other show, like Lions are kind of live here. At least we think this is kind of neutral setting. Gainwell is the more explosive back. I hadn't seen this number, but seeing it out there now at most spots, receiving is anywhere from 32 and a half to 33 and a half. His combined number at 64 and a half is pretty nice.

I kind of like the over, but I'm with Connor. I'm just shying away from these running back receiving yards because they've burned me a little bit. Connor, any thoughts on this? We have a rejection actually right at 30 for 3.8 receptions. So I think that it might be a no play. I thought it would be a little bit less. I don't know why I anticipated that.

Maybe a receptions prop, I think, if you want to take it. I don't know. Like, you know, if you could probably find like a two and a half or a three, you know, three and a half maybe. So I don't know. I lean over there, but it's tough. Yeah. No receptions currently on the board anywhere. Alex, any thoughts? Yeah. I would say that Boston Scott got a lot more run last week than I anticipated after Miles Sanders was ruled out of the game. I was expecting Gainwell to be featured more in the Philadelphia offense. Yeah, I do expect Boston Scott to continue to have a pretty significant role in the Eagles offense. So, yeah, I do love Gainwell as a receiver.

I think he is a very fluid route runner. Nick Sirianni loves him. Obviously, he's played in some crucial moments. He seems to be the preferred back in two-minute drill as well and the hurry-up offense. But, yeah, I do think Boston Scott is going to mix in for a healthy amount of touches. And they did activate Jordan Howard to the roster,

and I did read that he ran with the ones all week in practice. So just something to be aware of. I don't think it's necessarily going to be the shift that we expected, or I think some people are expecting, to gain well. I do think that Howard's going to obviously have an early down roll, and Scott will mix in as well. So I don't really see gain well receiving necessarily a big bump in touches. All right, we're going to go lightning mode here to, to wrap up,

try and knock some of these out. Devante over 22 and a half is a longer reception. Sure. I don't love that as much, but no problem with that white. I think we're over. If you can get two 20 and a half or still go with an under Connor. Definitely down to two 50,

200. I don't even care. He's going to end up like one 40. Any thoughts on Jamison Crowder working out of the slot? Obviously target competition is minimal with the lack of Corey Davis there. I know we're trying to short that passing game. Three and a half receptions, 44 and a half yards. Alex, any thoughts on Jamison?

I buy that receptions all day. I did have the displeasure of watching the Jets last week. Mike White looked comfortable throwing to the slot, and I do think the Bengals are very stout up front. They're going to just allow him to dink and dunk, and yeah, I think Crowder's going to run a lot of routes close to the line of scrimmage, high percentage routes. The yards are a little scary for me, but I do think the over three and a half completions should be a pretty strong bet. I like the Camaro play, receiving yards over 46 and a half on repeat

since Winston can't seem to hit anyone else. Yeah, you don't run against the Bucs. The Bucs are also another team that we like to target running backs against. They are giving it up at a pretty high rate. That's also they are seeing a lot of volume because teams choose to not run against them too. So there's a little bit in there. Any thoughts on Kamara?

No, you laid it out. That was good. I like to go over. Looks like everyone is getting Najee's line at 108.5 on all sites. Propstars doesn't even need the best number. He gave the books the three yards back and said, I'll take this at 105. You can keep your juice, keep your three yards.

We're good. That's how good he is so um waiting on this drop uh for jerry goff completions leads the league's attempts under 10 yards eagles are giving it up at a pretty high rate under 10 yards here uh interesting it makes sense i mean they're not really chucking the downfield they don't have a lot of deep threats it is a lot of swift and Hawkinson. So you can sell me on that. The Eagles also play like just the most bland,

too deep defense. They do really nothing dynamic. Sorry, Alex, to beat up on your team. They don't disguise a lot of looks. They're pretty vanilla defensively. I can see this. That makes a lot of sense. Let's see. Kirk Cousins, over two and a half rushing yards.

I love these. He's hitting in three of five with one miss being at two yards against Cleveland. Sure. We talked about Dallas playing a lot of man and how Cousins tears up man. We like man when we want rushing quarterbacks because the defense turns their back to the quarterback and they can run. I don't think that that's Kirk Cousins first look, but it could be,

you could sell me on that one. Daryl Henderson over 16 and a half rushing attempts, minus one 14, a concern that they may sit him against the Texans after some time. You would have thought that last week at home against Detroit, it didn't happen. And I think because they had a tight game against Detroit, they're maybe less likely to kind of go to Houston and take their foot off the

gas. I think you see a pretty healthy dose. It's probably a good number. I think our prop or our projections right around there. So it's not anything that I love, but I think he's probably pretty efficient with those. Anyone have a lean strong on D'Ando? We haven't. Yeah, go for it. We rejected over,

but last week, Damian Harris played a similar game. He needed one carry in the final quarter and didn't get there. That's one of those things where if they're winning by a lot, it wasn't against the Texans, but still, it's one of those things.

It can happen, but I think that 16.5 is still fair if you want to take a stab on the over because he's put the clear lead back. Yeah, David Johnson, over 25.5 receiving yards, waiting for his reception number to drop. But any interest here? I mean, obviously the backfield gets a little less dicey with Mark Ingram moving on to New Orleans. Just such an anemic offense and again the kind

of the tune that we're playing here is we're unless we feel that we have a massive edge on a receiving yard number with a with a running back we're trying to stay away from it david johnson is not a dude that is like creating yards anymore by himself um not something that I love. Over one and a half receptions for Neem Hines. Really juicy, minus 165. Pretty juicy for me, but I don't know what your thoughts are, Alex. Yeah, I'd hold off. I think the yards offer better value, especially at that low of a number. If it moves up a yard or two, I think it's still fine.

12 or 13 is still very playable there. Yeah. Dallas Goddard over four and a half receptions at plus 120. Fell short of this last week in negative game script. Doesn't mean that he's going to again. But I like that you're getting plus money, but I don't love the number. Anyone have a thought here? Yeah, I don't love the number either.

I was expecting a larger target share, especially in the negative game script that we got. Yeah, I just don't know. I think he's running a lot of routes pretty deep down the field as well. I would prefer to see him running routes closer to the line of scrimmage and just been targeted more. We didn't see it. They're using him deep down the field. I don't think that necessarily translates to a large target share in this eagles passing

offense yeah i do not love it uh let's see here what else we got uh you guys are awesome we love uh you guys are filling it up um gino does he throw to metcalf this week as he should i don't want any props tied to gino smith personally um dk obviously in the range of outcomes for him to go deep we saw last week but again as he should. I don't want any props tied to Geno Smith personally. DK obviously in the range of outcomes for him to go deep. We saw it last week, but again, Marshawn Lattimore fell in that play. It's a little bit noisy and then

didn't see the ball for basically the next 40 minutes. He's also been very busy this week. I don't know if you've seen what DK's been up to. So he's tired, man. He's tired. His only model is like foursome or whatever. I don't know if it's something like that. Yeah so he's tired man he's uh his only model is like four some or whatever he's he's he's tired so i don't know that i want to chase dk brock dude good for him though you know uh yeah i don't know why people are hating on him i mean whatever like just let him do him

uh you got an aaron jones touchdown prop suite uh don't do it next week um let's see here pitman under then um i mean there's we're split here we're split i don't necessarily like his under i just don't love the over we've been on pitman i think in like five or seven shows i've been playing is over multiple times this year i'm just not as high on it as i have been in previous weeks despite the great matchup i just got burnt with T.Y. I was back in the lineup, and I just am erring a little bit cautiously. Until I see Pittman produce with T.Y. in the lineup,

I'm going to personally stay away. I would still 100% lean over on the play, though. Makes sense. It's really tough to take unders on guys like Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman, who are just grown-ass men. They're just – Jam set.

One take or one catch, they can just break off and just yak their way to the end zone. This is a great question from Matt. Given props go under 60% of the time, should my picks reflect that? I think that's a fantastic question. I think no. Really? Well, so what I was saying earlier is I think that's a fantastic question. I think no. Really? Well, so what I was saying earlier is I think that you should find something that works for you that you're

comfortable with. I don't think that you should blindly bet one way or the other. I think that you should look for unders because knowing that naturally we're inflated and our minds are set to want to chase positivity and good things and guys going over. But I also don't think that your portfolio and how you bet should like mirror the market perfectly. I think you need to be aware that they're typically leaning over and they kind of juiced up at times and look for inefficiencies, but I don't think that you necessarily should have your portfolio reflect that. But what are your thoughts, Connor? Yeah yeah i think that's fair um uh i think that you come from like a different position than someone than a lot of other people though because

you know you come from like a dfs background and like you know we're going game by game breaking down every player of every position of every game and every game from a batting standpoint whereas most people probably aren't doing that work you know like that type of work so i think for for us like it's a little bit easier to pinpoint certain overs or like, you know, like certain situations and spots. Whereas I think that just coming on to, you know, being a better, and I'm not saying that he's new or anything, but just like, if you're not doing all that type of work I just think that it's easier to be more successful if you're betting more unders. And, and it's also just betting against,

you're betting against like human achievements and like, you know, you're, you're winning until you're losing rather than losing until you're winning. And that's, I think that that's plays a big part. There's a lot more outs on unders. I get that. So yeah, you shouldn't only bet unders.

You shouldn't like have your bets only skew towards that. You should do what works best for you. If you're good over better bet overs. But I would say that, you know, betting unders has been valuable to increasing me personally, just my total output. I think that's a good point.

For me, season-long props, I want to go like 80%, 85% under whenever I can. I definitely want to lean under because there's even more outs in that. You're not baking in injury risk and things like that. And over the course of a season, I think I want to lean very heavy under on season long props week by week. To your point, I think I can find some better matchups in exploiting overs at times, but I think you make a good point.

And that's why there's options on both sides and you can really find what works for you. And if you're more comfortable doing that, you know, part of being on our team here is you can choose to tail the unders that you like if you feel that that's really where you want to, you know, make your mark and get your money in. Let's see. We're a little bit over our show time here.

I'm going to see if there's anything else before we get to the prop of the day. Game ball we touched on. See if how we touched on. Hasty over 11.5 receiving yards. Basically, Elijah Mitchell is a, you know, early down work guy. You can tell me on Hasty. Anyone have any strong plays there?

No one has strong plays on Hasty. AB out, questionable. Evans, 65.5 receiving yards. Evans has had some tough battles with marshawn latimore over the years um godwin would be my lean there um if i had to pick one of those what do you guys think uh this wasn't listed but i don't mind fading four nets uh rushing yards this week i was incredibly i've been incredibly impressed with the Saints' front. That run defense to me is spectacular. I was actually hoping that Fournette, based on his past results

or recent results, would open in the 60s and I comfortably play his under. I do think, obviously, the number is accounting for how good the Saints' front is. But, yeah, that's the prop that I've got my eye on. 54.5 is tough. I mean, the issue is he's going to see like 15, 16 carries probably. Agreed. TJ Hawkinson. TJ Hawkinson, 52.5 receiving yards.

That kind of fits the narrative that we heard earlier around the golf stuff being short and intermediate. I would lean over on Hawk. Anyone have a feel? Yeah, I'd lean over as well. The Eagles do struggle with short to intermediate routes. They have given up a lot of short completions. Hawk is running a lot of high-percentage routes near the line of scrimmage.

Obviously, Goff does not drive the ball down the field. The Eagles' defense has done a decent job of taking away deep down the field. So, yeah, I do like Hawk this week. I'd probably look more towards his receptions than yards though. Awesome. You can find us on Twitter at MoveTheLineNFL or any of us individually. If you're watching late,

say you're watching this later on Friday night or Saturday or even Sunday morning, hit us up on Twitter. We'll be happy to help you with anything that you're looking at as the market continues to shape and develop. Let's jump into our player prop tool of the week producer sal let's see what you got maybe so producer sal he's muted today. All right.

Oh, man. Kyle Juszczyk receiving yards over 12 and a half. This is a minus 110 bet over 12.5. This is a minus 110 bet over at William Hill. The 4-for-4 projections have us at 22.7 yards for Kyle Juszczyk. No one loves Kyle Juszczyk more than John Paulson, our genius behind the props. Kyle Juszczyk is a buy, a value in the prop tool every week.

Connor, any thoughts on the juice man here? So I think he's gone over this season in four games. So, I mean, but my issue with just like betting any of these overs outside of Debo is like I just don't think they're going to pass

very much because they won't have to and so I just like I could see Jimmy passing the ball like 25 times

and like that do they feature juice you know in that in the one of those 25 that's the question

or two probably it's probably two catches. Well, you know what juice, it just takes one, you know? Dynamic, dynamic. Any thoughts here, Alex, on the juice? Nothing. I do, in my projections as well, I do notice that when I, like, enter him in, he always is trending over every single time.

So, yeah, I don't know what it is that just translates to him being very projection-friendly. But, yeah, I don't have a strong lean on Juice one way or the other. Well, PropTool's been good this year, and we'll see what happens this week. Again, this is part of our betting subscription over at 444, the player prop tool. You can customize based on your state, based on the books you have available. If you have offshores or maybe you even have a points or a prize pick situation,

you can put in and make a custom bet, and it can tell you if there's any value on that. Again, that is super useful for no matter what you're doing. Again, that is massively reduced in price, $44 to the end of February, gets you everything on our site. So check out that in the show notes if you haven't. So you guys are awesome. We appreciate this. I know this is something we all look forward to every week, continue to hopefully fire some winners, have some community wins. When you're winning some stuff, tag us on Twitter. Let us know that you're winning too. We want to celebrate those wins with you again as i mentioned earlier

like that's the best part of this like we enjoy winning too uh but i know like we've been doing this for a long time and you know in the content space it's a lot of fun when you guys win too and when we can help you you know maybe steer you away that you were leaning and we can help drive that home for you that's why we're here so uh for connor and Alex, I'm Ryan. We'll be back to do it all again next week. Thanks for listening, everyone.