Move The Line - Prop Drop: Week 9 Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: November 6, 2021

Move the Line Presents: Prop Drop ... The newest sports betting show from 4for4's Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen, plus third co-host Alex Selesnick. On this week's episode, Connor, Ryan and Alex discuss their top Week 9 NFL player prop bets.  Move The Line Prop Drop is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000). 👉🏼 4for4.com/WynnBET Get 4for4's  Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Follow Alex on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/PropStarz  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3A2UKBx  4for4 Prop Stat Explorer 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Ab3c1u #fantasyfootball #sportsbetting #props ________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Week 9 Prop Drop Intro 3:00 Connor Prop No. 1 4:16 Ryan Prop No. 1 5:33 Alex Prop No. 1 8:14 Connor Prop No. 2 9:16 Ryan Prop No. 2 11:25 Alex Prop No. 2 13:04 Connor Prop No. 3 15:05 Ryan Prop No. 3 16:30 Alex Prop No. 3 18:48 Connor Prop No. 4 19:52 Ryan Prop No. 4 21:20 Alex Prop No. 4 26:41 Viewer Props Q + A 1:00:37 Prop Tool Bet of the Week 1:03:45 Week 9 Prop Drop Outro

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show. Prop Drop is brought to you by WinBets. Download the WinBet app today. Use our promo code 444. Take advantage of the risk-free $1,000 bet. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined by two of my favorite fellow Propty Gens. First of all, Connor Allen, what's going on, buddy? Not much. Spent a good portion of this week trying to forget about last week,

at least in terms of some of our picks on the show. But you know what? We're back better than ever. And what goes up, what goes down must go up, right? Isn't that how the saying goes? I like the attitude. Also, always in the space is our man, PropStars. How are we feeling, Alex? What's going on today?

What's up, Ryan? What's up, Connor? How are you guys doing? Yeah, last week was a doozy for me as well. It was actually my first losing week of the season, so I am motivated to get back on track. I have been with the old grindstone, as they say. Yeah, I'm ready to get down to business.

Love it. Folks recognizing in chat, you know, the hair is done up today. We got a new mic. You know, he's looking fresh to death, so hopefully the cat pumped up,. He's looking fresh to death. Hopefully the cat pumped up, ready to go, ready to contribute. I was 3-1 last week, guys.

Let's go. We got to step it up. We crushed the other week. Feeling good about the process here. I know Connor's got some good ones. I've seen some of that stuff too. I got an early peak of Alex's I haven't dug in. So feeling good about what we have for the listeners this week.

So if you are just tuning in two shows a week here from move the line, this is our prop show. We're going to go around the horn, share some of our props and then handle your questions. And then on Wednesdays, Connor and I bring on some different folks from around the industry to break down the games from a betting perspective, you know, more sides and totals,

kind of more big picture football stuff. So we appreciate you joining us here. Subscribe so you don't miss a show. Also deep in the show notes, you can find some information on how to take advantage of a four for four subscription. Our betting sub gets you premium access to literally everything on the sites. We have slash prices now at this point, basically being halfway through the season. So please take advantage of that. It's going to get you access again, DFS, you know,

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All that's down in the show notes. All gentlemen, winners. we're ready for it folks if you're in the chat uh let's fire up some questions like i said when we're done here we're gonna get to the questions and go around the horn connor my man kick us off with uh bet number one you're muted right off the gate um kicking it off starting off strong this is why we were late a little bit rushed here um jalen rager under 27 i think that might be two weeks in a row by the way uh 27 and a half uh receiving yards um i think that this line was a little bit interesting he's gone over this number in just two of eight games this season now facing a like a tough

charter secondary uh he's banged up last week hardly practiced until today uh i think it's very unlikely that he's 100 or anywhere near 100 and then not to mention the eagles just entirely shifted their their offense in the last like two weeks um they're going way run heavy like they're just skewing massively jaylen has had 14 pass attempts last week part of that was due to game script but i think even when that wasn't like in their game script, they were still running the ball heavily. And against a Chargers team that's one of the worst at run defense, I think that they're probably going to continue to do that with some success. So I think there's going to be a low

volume passing game here, and Rager hasn't really been all that efficient regardless. So I like the under 27 and a half receiving yards. I lean under on the two and a half receptions as well. Yeah, interesting call. Obviously if he gets out there in a limited fashion, you're, you're in really good shape. You know, he's obviously not set for probably a full workload. Like that, like that quite a bit. First one for me, Jarvis Landry over four and a half receptions. This is minus 135 on Caesars. Pretty straightforward, obviously. You know, Landry's actually topped this mark in every game that he has played from start to finish this season. Target competition, obviously a bit thinner with the news this week

with Odell out. I think Donovan Peoples-Jones plays, but I think he's dinged up a little bit. This is just a really nice spot for Landry. This is a Bengals team that is stout against the run, fourth in rushing success rate allowed. So I think that defensive line is really good. I think really the only path here for the Browns is to at least mix in some of that short passing stuff as an extension of the run game.

And I think that's going to work for Landry quite a bit. I think a nice spot for like eight to maybe a dozen targets for him. Low ADOT stuff too. So I always feel good about you know receptions for a dude like landry versus yard so over four and a half for landry for me feels like a really nice play that i'm willing to pay a little extra juice on because i think it's a pretty low threshold for for him to top there i like that one i was looking at that earlier i'll probably i'll probably tail that one for sure yeah i thought we'd get five

and a half there with the odell news so four four and a half with, you know, fairly minimal juice, I think is, is worth it. So, uh, Alex, my man, kick us off, buddy. What's your first one? I've got some good news, Ryan. We are once again, overlapping with Jarvis Landry. Um, that seemed to has worked very well for us throughout the season. So yeah, I was absolutely ecstatic when I saw that you were on Landry. So, yeah, absolutely love that. Love your play as well. Connor, yeah, so my first play,

kicking things off with a running back going A.J. Dillon over 35.5 rushing yards. I have been very encouraged and impressed by A.J. Dillon so far, especially recently. He has had at least eight carries in four of his last five games. He's topped this rushing total in three of his past five games. He's averaging 10.5 carries over his last five games. Obviously, there's going to be a seismic shift in offensive philosophy with no Aaron Rodgers, but if I'm the Packers, I think they're going to lean heavily on the two-headed backfield

with A.J. Dillon and obviously Aaron Jones. So, yeah, I'm anticipating a game plan centered around Dillon. The Chiefs are not playing good football on offense or defense, but not surprised me at all if the Packers were even competitive, even with Jordan Lovett quarterback. KC ranks 29th in rushing DVOA. They've allowed seven running backs on the season so far to eclipse this number, including every single running back that they faced that has had double-digit carries as well.

Just watching Dylan week to week on a weekly basis, he just looks more and more comfortable. He's fighting for extra yards. The Packers' line is playing well. I've just been really, really, really encouraged with what I've seen from him. I just think he's going to get between 10 to 12 carries. I think this is a low number for him. Yeah, that's a good call. I looked at potentially some A.J. Dillon unders on his carries as well

because that was open at 14.5. Sorry, Aaron Jones under on his carries at 14.5 because because of how much work a.j dylan has been taking and if you look at like the last few games it's been like like a.j dylan had uh you know 16 i did believe of our 15 of 31 carries for aaron jones a.j dylan 16 and then aaron jones has only been having around 50 of the workload but as you mentioned i think they're probably gonna go really around heavy and could have some some against a terrible Kansas City Chiefs defense. So, yeah, I think that your play there with A.J. Dillon over is probably the move. Yeah, it makes a lot of sense there for sure.

I thought the number would be higher too. So, yeah, out-carried him last week. It makes a lot of sense with, again, just all the moving parts there. Nice matchup. You want to make it a little easier on Jordanordan love all those things kind of set up for that one uh connor next for you yeah so my next bet is uh tyler boyd under 40 48 and a half receiving yards uh i know that you know boyd was a staple last year of a lot of you know my plays and our plays in general but he's gone on to the summer in five of eight games this season

and four of six when T. Higgins is healthy. If you've got to look at the splits here, looking at our market share splits app over at 444, in the games that Higgins has been active, I mean, it massively limits Boyd's upside. So in the six games with Higgins, Boyd averages just 35.5 receiving air yards, 49 receiving yards, and six targets per game compared to eight targets, close to 100 air yards a game.

His role is just way different without T. Higgins in the lineup. Obviously, we know T. Higgins is healthy, so we haven't projected for right around here, but I think the 48.5, all things considered, is a little bit too high. I like the under there, and just as a low ADOT slot kind of guy, in a game that's probably going to be slow-paced and kind of grinded out back and forth. I like that quite a bit. Also, because I'm on his teammate here with my next pick is Jamar Chase over 73.5 receiving yards. DraftKings minus 115.

The way that they use Chase and Higgins is all that Connor just laid out here like um pretty quiet week so we're kind of buying the dip a little bit on chase we have him projected for 109.7 receiving yards on the week which is higher than 73 um this is the second highest rate of the week you know so we are very bullish on the spot. And it kind of makes sense. Cleveland profiles as a team that doesn't – they like to run the ball and they stop you from running the ball up front.

They are very stout against the run. So I think this is a great spot for Chase. Obviously, the big playability is absolutely huge. I like the Higgins spot too, but the chase number, they're way too close. I think Higgins is like 61 and a half. So there should be a little bit of a larger delta, I think, between these two with the way that chase for the season, his ADOT is just so significantly higher.

Last week it was kind of weird. Like they flip-flop rolls in a way. I just don't think that that's sustainable here. So Chase can do this on minimal catches with his big playability. And we've seen dudes against Cleveland go off. Tyreek, Justin Jefferson, Mike Williams, Brandon Cooks, Deontay Johnson last week. We've all seen these guys go for upwards of 100 plus against this defense. So I love Jamar at 73 and a half in a big, big way. Feel really good about our projections having him up into the hundreds. Love it.

Do you guys know, is Jamar the odds-on favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year? I believe so. I think he is. It would just be interesting to see if he's not. Yeah, I agree. He has just been absolutely phenomenal. It seems like a lifetime ago that the reports at a training camp that he was playing terribly and all those whispers throughout preseason it's just so funny to see

just this seismic shift and obviously he's been as good as any rookie wide receiver frankly in nfl history since probably odell beckham jr had that fantastic rookie year so which brings me to my next play which is brandon Cooks over 4.5 reception. This one is a bit steamed up. It is minus 150. However, I do like this one a lot. I was shocked this line did not open at 5.5 personally. Cooks has had at least five catches in seven of eight games this season.

He's averaging 6.3 catches per game. He's getting just a hair under nine targets per game. He's had 14 catches in the first two games of the season where tyrod taylor appeared in who will obviously be playing quarterback this week for houston um yeah i just could not believe this was not at five and a half the dolphins have given up the fourth most receiving yards and the fifth most receptions to opposing wide receivers on the season there is is very minimal depth behind Cooks on this Texans receiver group. We've got Chris Conley, Nico Collins, Danny Amendola, Jordan Aikens at tight end.

None of these guys has had more than six targets in a game this season. The Dolphins on paper, obviously they have a good secondary, but they have not performed well at all this season. They rank 26th in past DVOA. Cooks is really the only viable receiving options. I think he's going to get absolutely peppered with targets. I like the spot quite a bit for him. What projects to be a competitive game.

I think he's a really good bet to go over five catches. Yeah, he should crush Connor's Dolphins here pretty easily. Yeah, we're on a bunch of Dolphins props. We'll get to that later. But, I mean, I think that this dolphin sprouts. We'll get to that later. But, I mean, I think that this game, I like the over in that game. I think that there's some interesting sneaky shootout potential with just the offenses being underrated and the defenses both being bad. Yeah, I felt better about it with Parker, Devontae Parker in there.

But you can still make the case for that for sure. Connor, number three. Yeah, so my next one keeps moving on me so i've adjusted my sheet like three times um i bet it at 232 it's not on the 224 playable i think it says it's labeled on the 220 to be honest trevor lawrence under 220 passing yards it's probably my favorite part of the week actually one of my first uh one and a half unit plays of the season. So Trevor Lawrence matching up against the Bills this week. Their defense has played so well, ranking first in both pass defense DBOA and explosive pass right allowed.

The Jags, who want to run the ball but probably won't be able to, now are going to be facing the toughest defense that they've played by far. If we look at the Bills and how they perform against other quarterbacks this season, they've actually allowed fewer than 220 passing yards in every game except for a game against Patrick Mahomes, which is incredible to believe. But if you go through it, 188 to Ben Roethlisberger, 169 to Brissette, 212 to Heineke, 87 to Mills, 270 to Patrick Mahomes, then 216 to Tannehill, 205 to Tua.

I think that Lawrence is much more in that category of guys that, you know, we're allowing close to 200 to than Patrick Mahomes. So given, you know, the weapons and given the lack of, you know, the dysfunction in the Jaguars right now, I'm very confident taking this under. I think that when it opened to 230, I thought it was ridiculous. 225, I think it's still too high i play this on the 220 i think that he finishes with less than 200 as the bills dominate and control this game start to finish we highlighted this with silva on the wednesday show how last week it was with jamal agnew carlos hyde and dan arnold combining for

60 percent of the target share like they're like you dudes like Jamal Agnew, who is like a – like, he was a corner who went to play special teams that's now playing, like, receiver. You know, just a mess. So not a bunch of dudes that scare you after the catch, which probably makes you feel pretty good about that one, too, for sure. Next for me, Tyler Conklin, over 32 and a half receiving yards. I think this is 33 at some spots too.

Fine with that. We have him projected at 45.9. I think the Vikings are going to be forced to go a little bit more pass heavy. Those good things happen when they do that. They are pretty efficient in the passing game. They just would love to run the ball over and over again. i don't think they're going to be able to do that against baltimore and conklin's i think a better pass catching tight end than i think we thought coming into the seasons really actually emerged as the clear third receiving option there they're

not using dalvin cook as much as i would like to see in the passing game and like the kj osborne thing has died down a little bit we've seen back-to-back weeks with 71 yards and 57 yards for Conklin. And the Ravens are a sneaky great spot for tight ends. They are allowing a league high 79.7 receiving yards per game to the position. In our schedule adjusted fantasy points metric that we have at 4-4-4, I think it's really cool. It takes into consideration who they're playing and things like that. Baltimore's 31st against the tight end position.

So that kind of validates the raw numbers there, too. It's a really nice matchup. 32-1-1 is way too light for Conklin with how he's being used right now. Yeah, I like that for sure. All right, my man. Alex, I like this one. Consider this, and I think this is kind of a sneaky spot for your guy here. What's number three?

Yeah, I just want to state this would not be the Prop Drop show if Connor did not fade at least one quarterback. So it was comforting. It was comforting, yeah. I feel a sense of relief after seeing that play. So, yeah, this play, I was surprised by this number as well. This is Nick Chubb, over 83 and a half rushing yards. Chubb has had at least 83 yards in five of six appearances this season. He is averaging 97 rushing yards per game. He's obviously playing

behind, if not the best, one of the best run blocking lines in all of football. No Kareem Hunt, who's obviously on injured reserve. We saw Dearness Johnson only handle four rushing attempts last week, so I don't think his role is going to be that big. I think he's just going to be there to spell Chubb. I don't think he's going to carve out the sort of role that Kareem Hunt had in the offense prior to getting hurt. Chubb has gone over this total every time he's had at least 20 carries this season.

That's out of three out of three games. He's gone over this total in 16 of 17 career games where he's had at least 20 rushing attempts. His rushing attempts, by the way, is set at 19 and a half, which is encouraging. In games, he's had at least 19 rushing attempts in his career. He's gone over in 21 of 22 career games. Yeah, the Bengals D has been stout. They have been solid, but they did not look great at all last week versus the Jets and Michael Carter.

Bengals are currently 10th in rushing DVOA. Yeah, I just think it's not going to be a surprise or whatsoever that the Browns are playing a feed chub early and often. I think this number should have been set in the low nineties. I was shocked to find it at 83 and a half where I think it presents some really nice value. Yeah. It's interesting.

It's not like a great matchup, but he's almost like matchup proof. Agreed. Yeah. I think it's an interesting one for sure. Reminder, we're going to wrap it up. We each got one more again,

continue to fill the chat with questions. We will take them after we're going to wrap it up. We each got one more. Again, continue to fill the chat with questions. We will take them after we get done going around the horn. Capit help, anything you're thinking about in the marketplace, anything that you've considered, anything that you want validation, confirmation bias that you've bet, any questions that you have for Alex's cat, whatever we need to get done, we want to take care of with the last half of the show. So, Connor, take us home, buddy. Last one for you. Yeah, so my last play here is Mike Gusecki over 49 and a half receiving yards. You know, you're able to find this at 50 more widely now, I guess, at this point.

I think it's still very much playable here. I mean, our current projection has him at 70 or 68 receiving yards. He draws a great matchup against Houston, as we mentioned earlier. I mean, should be a back-and-forth game. He has gone over this number in two of the last three starts with Tua, and the third missed by one yard in a tough matchup against Buffalo, as I also previously mentioned. So with Devontae Parker out here, I think it's just going to mostly be Jalen Waddell

and Mike Gusecki as the focal points of this offense in a passing game, which has continued to pass even when they're leading. Currently, Miami installed as five-and-a-half-point point favorites so you expect them to have some kind of a lead but they're probably not going to blow out the Texans here so I think this game's gonna be back and forth and then we're gonna see plenty of Yosaki here against a bad Houston defense I like it consider that we talked about that one in our discord earlier it's a nice matchup for him obviously things open up without you know parker like you said so yeah good good call um i like that one quite a bit i'm gonna go wrap it up go back to

the well with uh dionte johnson over 73 and a half receiving yards uh minus 115 on draft kings this is wheels up again back-to-back weeks for for your dionte he is just getting like dominant work i'm surprised to be honest like i thought that things opening up with juju out i thought we would start to see you know claypool really ascend and get into like and he is from a snap share standpoint but like his targets are stalled like he's still in like the high teens and we're seeing like these astronomical target shares area shares for dionte that are up it's like the mid 30s close to 40 every week he is just he's been big ben's first look and uh sneaky spot the bears are actually dead last in football outsiders dvoa against wide receiver

ones on the season this worked last week in this spot where i went to uh the well with debo and debo went off for 171 uh absolutely crushed so i think again with a heavy workload for dionte again we're paying what four yards more than we did last week absolutely fine with that again back-to-back weeks of 13 targets he is going to crush again in the spot and uh you take us home on a nice monday night one that's going to be ugly to watch i think otherwise but uh we can cheer for our dante over and uh and go from there uh all right alex i like your this is the last one is interesting this is a uh hot button fantasy topic um bring us home yeah my cat assisted with this one this is a bit of a mean pick. I absolutely love it, though. It is Adrian Peterson over 32 and a half rushing yards. It's hard for me to say that with a straight face. I cannot believe I'm

making him an official play, but I actually like it. Yeah, I want to also preface by saying this play is a little bit speculative, obviously, but I mean, if you look at it, you really couldn't have found a better situation for Adrian Peterson to land in. Todd Downing loves to run the football. The Titans are built to run the football. I expect them, obviously, to start passing the ball more. But this number just feels too low for a guy that is very likely to get double-digit carries. The Rams also are a middle-of-the-pack rushing defense.

We know Peterson obviously keeps himself in fantastic shape. It was also telling that he was promoted to the active roster in his first game. The Rams actually rank 18th in rushing DBOA. We've got Julio Jones playing. We've seen A.J. Brown just be absolutely dominant recently. He's putting together some of the best football of his career. I think that ultimately takes some of the pressure off of the running game, off of Peterson, the defense.

We're going to have to respect the wide receivers. I also took a closer look at Jeremy McNichols. He hasn't had more than two rushing attempts this season in his career. He's had double-digit carries one time in his five years, 25 games played. I just think Peterson is a very strong bet to get 10 to 12 carries. There's just no one else that they're going to really hand the ball to on first and second down. And we know the Titans love to run the ball.

I'm not expecting a workload like Derrick Henry, but obviously this line is not reflective of that sort of volume. So yeah, I think 32 and a half is totally a feasible in his range of outcomes. And yeah, he's going to fall forward for two or three yards, 10 to 12 times and hopefully go over. I like it.

I like it. It's going to be interesting to see. It's one of those ones where he said speculative more than, than, you know, based in data because we're making a season debut. So it doesn't mean that, that he's not going to slide right into that role.

I think they are going to be comfortable with a big body dude like that. He looked good last year too. He was in shape. He keeps himself in obviously unbelievable shape. He's taking some incredibly high-end vitamins and supplements, the best stuff GMC has to offer. You know that stuff is top shelf for sure. He's getting all the tough stuff at the very top that you have to go

into the back room for, all that sort of stuff. Any homeopathic stuff? I know homeopathic stuff. The homeopathic, he's on that Portland diet as well. He's raw. He's vegan. He's hanging out in my garden as we speak right now, getting prepped for the game. You know he's

ready. He doesn't have to pee in a cup before the game, does he? He doesn't. He's passed. We've made sure he brought the wizinator we're all good he's cleared he's ready to go who was that that got caught with a wizinator like five ten years ago ryan you gotta remember that yeah i remember it happened was it pac-man i think it might have been pac-man do you remember that story con Connor? No, but I know Pac-Man. About a decade ago, I want to say between like 10 and 15 years ago, I think it was Pac-Man.

There was some kind of controversial NFL player at the time who I think he was caught at an airport, and they checked his luggage, and he had a a Wizinator, if you're familiar with the device. Oh, man. So shout out, Wizinator. That's amazing. Yeah. Shout out GNC, too. I mean, that was a great plug, you know. Yeah, no, the Wizinator was Pac-Man, it looks like.

Oh, no, Ontario Smith? Hmm. Oh. All right. I remember it happening, for sure. I remember it being a big story. Ontario Smith. Yeah. All right. I remember it happening for sure. I remember it being a big story. Yeah.

Very interesting. You can get the drinks too at GNC while you're there, you know? So if you're in Alex's garden, we want to make sure you're not peeing in a cup before the game day. Just to make sure everyone's, everyone's good. Oh yeah. Sal's on it too. Ontario Smith.

Thanks Sal. Producer Sal and Jakers. You guys are the best. All right. We're a little little out of schedule we don't have a ton of questions you guys are slacking today um so i'm going to toss it back to you guys i know you're not prepared for a fifth does anyone have a fifth before we hop into questions i've been trying to look at this like right now so jordan love um just popped off. 8.5 rushing yards. I mean, it feels low. I don't know. Yeah, another one similar to Alex's. It's speculative because we don't have a great sense. And I know those

QB rushing yards are super skewed. Interesting. What do you got, Alex? I was just going to say I wanted to update you on the Wizinator. It was recently auctioned off in 2009 the wizinator that was um seized by tsa in case anyone wondered uh where the wizinator is and the the full story so yeah so good that's awesome um all right i think we got we got a decent amount of questions in here i know one question

um i was asked before we jumped in here, and I'll piggyback after you guys, but a buddy of mine was very curious about Lamar's passing props, his yards, completions, and attempts. Yeah, I think we had a question actually in here. Let's see, Lamar over his combo prop. I believe it's 3-11.5, also like Hollywood Browns matchup. So yeah, let's talk about Lamar as a whole here. Any thoughts on Lamar here, Alex?

Yeah. So I have been obviously, you know, study all these props, but this is Lamar's highest passing total, his highest passing yards prop that he's had this season. You're starting to see the numbers catch up a bit. I've been on, I've been riding him and backing Lamar quite a few times early in the season because we've seen somewhat of a shift in offensive philosophy for this Baltimore team. They simply don't have the running personnel outside of Lamar, frankly. And yeah, there's just, we know about all the injuries in the backfield and they just haven't been able to run the ball effectively with all these aging veterans. So yeah, Lamar is throwing the ball more.

He's throwing the ball more than he has in his entire career. The Ravens offense is, frankly, moving the ball through the air very effectively. But I do think this number projects, or excuse me, this game projects to be potentially high scoring potentially attract me but i do think the number is starting to get into that neighborhood where the edge as far as i'm concerned is frankly starting to get minimized a bit i do not think that um i think it's an efficient line long way long-winded way of stating that um yeah i don't find a lot of value in his yardage prop uh i do think his completions, I believe it's set at 19

and a half. If I were to choose between one of his three passing yards completions and attempts, I believe it's at 30.5, I would go with completions over 19 and a half. But I do think we're seeing the first week where his lines are looking more efficient than they have in previous weeks. Yeah, our numbers are over on both the completions and attempts, but we feel like I agree that the combine 311 and change for his yardage is probably a pretty efficient number. But we have to be encouraging that just too, because we're seeing a different mindset, you know, philosophy offensivelyly they have a super dusty running back core and they actually have really nice passing weapons obviously with bateman coming in hollywood

brown has been healthy and a surprise and been balling out mark andrews is looking good still so like leaning to the strengths and lamar's been incredible like first and second down like uber efficient so yeah i mean i think it's a decent matchup but minnesota's actually been pretty decent against the pass which is surprising because i don't feel super good pat pete's out uh you know you can take advantage of so i don't i don't think it's a bad spot at all for their passing but it feels pretty efficient sammy watkins might play as well, which obviously is somewhat of a boost. That receiving core is pretty deep and pretty talented with healthy Bateman.

Obviously, you mentioned Marquise, Mark Andrews. But, yeah, there are a lot of weapons in Baltimore, and I think that they're a very explosive offense. All right, we'll go to the questions. Sad week from Dan, no Pittman talk. Pittman's already crushed on Pittman props on Thursday. Pittman hit for us at the highest receiving yards for the game with an asterisk because the guys that had more receiving yards for him were not available in the offer.

So good on you, FanDuel, for paying that out still because the field was not an option. Elijah Moore wasn't. Nope. Keelan Cole was not an option elijah moore wasn't uh nope keelan cole was not in there yep we woke up with like a christmas present literally i actually i was told like the the word traveled all the way to me about your call guys so yeah i was uh very happy to hear that you guys won that it must have been uh adrian peterson in your garden you know whispering to you We do a lot of whispering back and forth while we exchange plants and supplements. Yeah, well, he fell a half-yard short of his, like, normal prop, which was just a kick in the groin.

But it really softened the blow to wake up to the special there. So we'll take it. Let's see. What are your favorite hours of the week time to eat boys we agree this is one of our favorite times too you guys are awesome um technical difficulties dan no connor's just slow man i've been late i don't know what to say connor's on that grind man we're you know he's connor's been in my backyard too much i wish man i've in a while i'll change that this weekend teddy two gloves over 261 and a half uh minus 110 jerry judy over four and a half receptions uh in this matchup against dallas

here yeah so like the receivers they're just they're almost all healthy and now you have no fans out so it's gonna be albert o season. But they're just cannibalizing each other a little bit. So it's really hard to feel super convicted on any of these Denver receivers. I feel good about getting a plus number there, but not a bet that I'm chasing. I'm going to give you a quick line, and then I'll go to you, Alex, see where we have Teddy. Our number on Teddy is 265.7. So I would call that an efficient number.

Yeah, I echo those same sentiments. I bit last week on Judy, who did look good. But yeah, after watching the game closely, even without Fant, you mentioned Albert. There are so many receiving options. Suddenly, Tim Patrick had his best game of the season, which was a bit of a kick in the gut. But yeah, I was on Sutton actually on this show, who finished, I think, just 15 yards or so short. And then Judy finished half a yard short for me. So yeah, there's a lot of options in this offense.

Bridgewater throws to both Melvin Gordon and Javante as well. This Cowboys defense is playing a lot better than I think most people realize. Furthermore, I was actually taken aback by Teddy's props, specifically his passing attempts and completions. I believe it came out at like 37 or 38 and a half. I'm not sure on the exact number. I mean, I know the number came there. I'm not sure how many times Teddy has done that in his career, but it has not been very many times.

He has not thrown the ball 38 times, I think maybe more than one or two times in his career, but it has not been very many times. He has not thrown the ball 38 times. I think maybe more than one or two times in his career. Yeah. So I thought his numbers were inflated. I did not see very much value personally in backing any of Bridgewater's plays. If anything, I'd be looking to fade some of the spots.

Agree with that for sure. Let's see what else we got here. Connor, did he hit any points bets last week? No, but we had some FanDuel specials. Yes, we did. We did. We bet our new weekly specials guy, Dalton Cates, in our Discord, was talking up Elijah Mitchell 37-1 to lead the week in rushing.

And both Ryan and I tailed that, and we made that an official play. And for like half of a unit – I did a quarter of a unit. I chickened out. I was going to do a half and I actually bet a half unit on it. So it ended up being great. But I mean, 37 to one, Elijah Mitchell crushed. It wasn't really even that much of a sweat. Like it was it saved our week. I would say my week. And, you know, it was awesome. That's amazing. Where was that on points bet on fando yeah yeah their weekly specials are really interesting because we had elijah mitchell projected for the

second most rushing yards in the slate but he was 37 to 1 on uh fando so we wow what a value value um i'll share one of dalton's favorites now which i thought was good um it was like i thought joe burrow it was like joe burrow's listed as like the seventh or eighth highest odds. We projected for the second most passing yards here, interestingly enough, just because since our Cleveland secondary has been getting burnt deep plenty. So I think that, you know, like, I mean, I think he's like 17, 18 to one right now. We projected for 309 passing yards, second most on the slate. So I think that that's an interesting value there.

I think you can also do the same thing. The other guys that make a ton of sense you can't obviously parlay them or anything but chase uh jamar chase i talked about already he's 15 to 1 to lead the slate and receiving yards we have him second behind cooper cup because it's all day sunday and uh t higgins is 37 to 1 which is also a really nice price. Like that works really well. If you think that the borough thing is happening too, because one of those two, one of those two is probably going off.

We, I think we all kind of agree. It's not, you know, Boyd, it's not Tyler Boyd here. So kind of the way he's used, I think those ones make a lot of sense.

The one I really liked that he threw out there too, which is interesting. If Kenny Galladay sits 85 to 1 for Kadarius Tony is interesting again we haven't really seen much since the Dallas game and he was hurt but and Oakland has actually done a pretty decent job at limiting big plays but like there starts to be nothing left if Galladay is not in that lineup. And then you also have no Shepard. Some of the dip that's happened with Tony happened when Shepard came back.

So I think Tony at 85 makes a lot of sense for just a little sprinkle. Not too aggressive, but a little sprinkle makes some sense. Travis. Our guy Travis. Travis Sharp, dude. This is the Travis. This is the Travis. Always in our chat firing. Travis Sharp, dude. This is the Travis. This is the Travis, always in our chat, firing off good stuff, dude. Love it.

Over 7.5 receiving yards for Chubb, which I think is really interesting. He was talking about this one this week. Bengals got destroyed by Jets receiving yardage last week, obviously. So last week, Chubb ran a route on 35% of the dropbacks and saw 3% of the targets, 8% target per route run. This is basically, this is very like, this is a binary, does he see a target kind of a prop? Because his ability with the ball in his hands is in the open field, you feel pretty good about seven and a half.

So Alex, any leans on that? My lean is over. I haven't taken it, but I've been thinking about it since Travis threw it onto the Discord a couple days ago. Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head. It basically comes down to whether or not he sees one reception. I was encouraged by the snap count. He really didn't leave the field that much.

I was personally expecting Dearness Johnson to mix in more, to spell him more, but it appears to be he's just an actual backup. He's obviously not, or not obviously, but he doesn't appear, Dearness Johnson does not appear to be assuming the Kareem Hunt role in the offense. I wasn't anticipating him necessarily taking on that full sort of workload, but I did anticipate him playing more than he did, being on the field more than

he did. It appears to be just a straight backup only when Chubb needs a breather, needs a rest. So yeah, I do think that I would lean over on this certainly. And I do think, yeah, I think Chubb's going to have a large workload and be on the field quite a

bit. And there's good chance he gets one target or one catch. See any leads on that? No, I like it a lot but i i think didn't his i know that a lot of the analysis is like without cream hunt like he would assume a lot of the receiving work but like didn't that not happen uh i don't remember the exact stats but like you know i think that he did not assume as much receiving work as we had anticipated so uh dararius Johnson played 90% of the long down and distance stuff. Okay. And 100% of the two-minute stuff.

Yeah. So you would kind of default to those being more of the passing. So, like, Chubb, this is basically getting Chubb a target on first or second down probably. And the Bengals have been very susceptible to running backs out of the back, pass-catching running backs, and they've given up a lot of receptions and yards to running backs out of the backfield. I like it, and I think it's worth a play, like maybe half a unit,

but I don't love it, if that makes sense. Agreed. I think it's subject to a lot of volatility. This was one that was a winner for us last week, a rescue dog. Thoughts on Dalvin Cook? Over 17.5 carries. He made us sweat it out to the very end. We got 18, just crossed the line barely there.

I don't love it at this price, minus 130. Our projections are high on him. We like him for like a little in the low 20s, like 21, 22, I believe. This is just a little too risky again kind of thinking of how this game is going to go i i kind of like baltimore here i think that forces the hand of minnesota to get a little bit more pass heavy so i think it's probably a pretty good number like he probably falls in the same range as he did last week just probably the high teens and uh it's a little close and not worth the juice for me on this one. Connor, any thoughts on Dalvin at 17 at minus 130?

No, you laid it out well. If they're going to be – I like to bet on the Vikings in spots that they're like three-point – within three-point favorites, you know, or like heavy favorites to three-point dogs. Because if things get out of hand, you know, they're just going to be passing the ball and not really establishing with Cook where that's where his like 20 carry upside comes from. So, yeah, just not my favorite spot for it.

Two, also I would add to that, this Ravens defense is not the same Ravens defense that we're accustomed to seeing, but they are stout up front. They are still an elite run rush defense. So, yeah, I also think that that's going to potentially play into it. I think if they minimize Cook and he's somewhat ineffective, I could see his role being scaled back a little bit in the second half. And like you said, they are, I think, were they seven-point underdogs, seven-and-a-half-point underdogs in the game?

Yeah, I could totally foresee Minnesota having to just air the ball out a lot. Next one is Dallas Goddard. Thoughts on Dallas Goddard over receiving yards um trying to pull that number here real quick I believe it's 58 yeah 58 and a half is Fandul is the best number I'm seeing 59 and a half everywhere else charges have been really bad against tight ends like really bad I think bottom three in DVOA um It's been a target all season. Alex, any leans on that? It's a big number, even for Goddard, even for him in a plus matchup.

Obviously, we've been high on him, Ryan and I. We've been backing him a few of the last few weeks, especially with Earths out of the picture. However, I just think this number is efficient. I'm not playing it's under the chargers have been uh very poor defending opposing tight ends but yeah this is just a big number and this game projects to be competitive i don't know that hurts is going to have to air the ball out a ton we've also we've talked about both connor and ryan mentioned how the eagles philosophy has shifted in recent weeks

they are running the ball more than ever personally Hurst only had 14 passing attempts last week. We've seen Boston Scott, Jordan Howard, Kenny Gamewell be a lot more involved. The Chargers are very bad versus opposing running backs, as bad as any defense in the league. So it would not surprise me whatsoever to see the Eagles deploy a similar offensive game plan, be very run-heavy. And if that works with them, I anticipate them sticking with it. So, yeah, I don't love Goddard in this spot in a scenario where they're going to be trailing.

Yeah, I would. Obviously, the Chargers are very vulnerable to the position, and Goddard is a very talented person, talented tight end. But, yeah, I just think the number is efficient at 59 or 58.5. Yeah, 65 is the number so not enough of a margin for me connor any uh leans initially on on dallas goddard no you guys you guys laid it out well it's just the floor is really really low uh we haven't projected for 64 but just it's the floor is really low in the game that you know i mean he can see like four or five targets so he

has to catch all of them for a good amount yeah He hasn't gotten the sort of target share that I think we all anticipated, too, after Ertz departed. He's been making the most of his targets, and he's been extremely efficient with his targets. But yeah, I was expecting to see a big bump in volume, and it just hasn't happened. And that is partly because the Eagles have been in more competitive game scripts. But even when they weren't in the couple game sample size we had, he just didn't get the sort of target share that I think we

and most people in the prop community were anticipating. I think this is a spot, though. Like I said, I think the number is probably efficient. Conrad made a good point. Like, you got to be probably perfect. Having receiving overs tied to Jalen Hurts has been tricky at times. And last week, obviously, they just kind of boat raced the Lions. So really all the pass catchers were kind of drawing dead there.

So as someone who had a Devonta Smith, who was my only L last week, he just never got off the schneid there because it was 24-0 real, real, real quick. Back to Dalvin Cook, over 99 and a half combo yards, rushing and receiving minus 130. I had this kind of pegged as something I wanted to watch for this week. And again, the more I dug into Dalvin's usage in the passing game lately, it's been a little frustrating.

I think that's probably a little noisy in small sample size theater to get back to him a little bit. I kind of like this. I don't like the juice. I don't know if that's the best number to get on him, but our projections have it pretty nicely over here. We have him closer to like, you know, 118 or so.

But, I mean, we kind of touched on it. You would need him to have a nice game in the passing game because we kind of touched on the rushing yard piece earlier. So you really need him to get three to four, you know, receptions here and then do something with them. So, yeah. Let's see. JB, in front of the show, in the chat, Boston Scott,

over 43.5 rushing yards. I can get there. I mean, again, depends on how you think this game is going to go, I think is really important because we saw Boston Scott be the guy in a positive game script last week as they got up. Still way too much Jordan Howard. If you're holding on this ticket, you're going to be watching this game, tilting your balls off as Jordan Howard runs for two yards like 10 times.

It's going to be rough. So, again, now you're also dealing with three backs in there too. So if the game gets kind of close or the Chargers get up, Scott is really – now he's fighting with gainwell as well for snaps so uh alex any thoughts on uh boston scott yeah so i i would personally be very careful of this one i am a boston scott truther i do really like him i think he is the eagles best running back besides miles uh miles sanders but however i would caution just to piggyback on what you said ryan there are a lot of scenarios where this goes south,

where the Eagles are going to abandon the run. Just because we saw them have a run-heavy approach and it be effective last week, to me, we're still dealing with Nick Sirianni here, who has shown very little. He has had very little confidence in the running game. As soon as the running game is somewhat ineffective, he abandons it and abandons it in a hurry and is not afraid to just completely omit it from the game plan.

So in a scenario where the Chargers get up, where the Eagles are trailing, yeah, I think this, personally, I would stay away from this. Scott is certainly capable and the Chargers are not a good rush defense. If he gets 12 to 15 carries, I do think he will easily eclipse the number. I just think there are a lot of ways where it can go south, so that's why I'm staying away from it. Yeah, we're bullish on it. We have a nice 57.5 is the number.

Yeah, because we have nine carries for 57.5 yards because of the matchup and because of his prior efficiency. So, yeah, stay away from me too. Yeah. Let's see. Another one that's down the line here a little bit. Boss has got any time touchdown plus 190. Not for me.

Anybody? Nope. No. We've got Jordan Howard, who's potentially going to be siphoning goal line touches. If there was no Jordan Howard in the mix, I'd like it more. But, yeah, just the fact that Howard seems to be the preferred red zone back, yeah, I don't think it's a great value.

Yeah, I'm with you there. All right, let's see here. Let's go back up to the top. We touched on that one. Appreciate all the research, guys. We appreciate you. DJ Moore, under one. Appreciate all the research, guys. Appreciate you. DJ Moore, under against the Pats, 71-and-a-half. Yeah, I mean, we don't know what's going on at the quarterback position

for the Panthers, and that's obviously a pretty major – Where's that at? Yeah, I haven't seen that either. Let me see if I can find it. Must have just come out while we've been on air. I'm finding a 64.5 at FanDuel. The only thing I see. A little less exciting.

A little less exciting. Stay away from me at 64.5. If you're still with us, let us know if you're getting 71.5. Maybe it's a local guy you're shaking down. Oh, here we go. This was prize picks. That's why. Prize picks.

Good old prize picks. I would definitely take the under there if you can get it. But, yeah, 64 is probably about right. Yeah, I agree with that. Next, Brian Edwards under 42.5 receiving yards. Obviously, unfortunately, his path to work has increased in a big big way this week 56.8 is what we have him in luck for which is pretty healthy um anyone have any leans on uh brian edwards work week here uh not a strong one i think it's easier to um

kind of anticipate how the usage is going to trickle down to, you know, potentially Hunter Renfro, Darren Waller. I kind of want to see Edwards in the offense, sans rugs, before I have a strong take on the play. So, yeah, I'm going to be watching closely, but don't have a strong lean on it. Our resident meathead, gym head, Dan, dropping GMC recommendations. Get in there on Cyber Monday. Load up. Dan,

get out of the gym, man. Dan's probably watching this from the gym. Get off the juice, Dan. I'm worried about you. It lowers your sperm count if you use too much of that stuff. I know you want to be a dab one day. So be careful, buddy.

Good advice, Alex. Thank you. Keenan Allen, over five and a half receptions, minus 150. I really like the spot for Keenan. I felt like it came out and it was like already minus 150. And I didn't take it. Yeah, it's like, yeah yeah give me at least let me consider give me the chance to get it minus 110 let me get a shot at it right yeah yeah so just

again big mike probably locked up with darius slay i took an over on austin eckler receiving yards i know a big player in the space took an under on Austin Eckler when it opened up late last night, but I think it was like 48 and a half that got steamed all the way down to 40 and a half. So I got a 40 and a half plus money on Austin Eckler. The same premise that I think that Keenan Allen's a good play. Very soft vanilla defense from Philly. Just a lot of basic two deep looks that allows for a lot of stuff

in the short and intermediate game. Darius Slay locks up Big Mike, and Keenan and Eckler eats in a big, big way. So I like the Eckler play. It's kind of why I liked Keenan, but again, minus 150 is just tough, man. You've still got to catch six balls, and you're really paying all the tax there. Connor, any leans on that? No, I like the Ackler one. I think that's good.

The Keenan one though. So what I've noticed with the books, like last year and the years prior, they would just line it. Almost everything would be a minus 115 and then they'd let the market, you know, steam it one way or another. But now they're almost like, like the over on Keenan at five and a half is the right play. Like don't get me wrong.

I think it is a hundred percent the right play. We were projected for 6.6. This is pretty universal among a lot of other props. They like, but then they shade the, the over, like with like minus one 50, minus one 60 juice. And I'd see it. I noticed that with a lot of unders too, like minus one 70, minus one 80, where the point it's like, can't really bet that.

So for me, I think that minus 150 is a stay away. If you're able to find minus 140 or minus 130 even, I'd consider it. But minus 150, I mean, it's a one-and-a-half unit play basically. So if you're that confident, then go for it. But I'm not. Agreed. Yeah, I would want to test something a little bit more flat there. This is a PBR season.

Do you know what show you're on? Second week in a row. Come on, TS. We can answer it, but just want to know if you're boss. Sanders. Yeah. If Hopkins is out, should I flex Julio, Emmanuel Sanders, Christian Kirk, or Melvin Gordon?

I get the Christian Kirk thing. He's probably bumped outside, but I think that probably opens it up more for a, you know, Rondell Moore. But again, A.J. Green's out too, so I can understand. But again, we also are dealing with Kyler maybe being out. So that seems even more likely than Hopkins. So I would go Sanders in a game where, surprisingly, Jacksonville's been decent against the run this year,

just by sheer volume. Like the raw numbers aren't great because they're always in negative game script and teams run all over them. But Buffalo will throw down your throats, and Sanders is a guy that's a nice big splash place. Any Cowboys props? I looked at some. Amari Cooper opened at 60.5 on FanDuel, and I looked at that.

But it looks like both him and CD are going to play, which is fine. I still think it's a little bit too low, but it wasn't enough of a margin for me to consider. I think we have them at 70 receiving yards. Yeah. I took a close look at Dalton Schultz, both his yards and his receptions. Blake Jarwin is out of the game. Prior to last week where we saw Dak miss the game and Cooper Rush play,

Schultz had been absolutely phenomenal with Dak behind center. I believe he had at least five or six catches in four straight games and eclipsed 60 yards in all of those games. So he had been really coming on strong with Dak under center, who was obviously expected to play this week. And yeah, his role should probably even expand further with no Blake Jarwin in the lineup. I was somewhat hesitant just becausever has been solid versus opposing tight ends this season that's what prevented me from making it official play but i did like it quite a bit yeah i wanted to look at zeke and then the number came out and it was ridiculous

and really considered a zeke under to be honest like 95 and a half rushing yards for zeke is a massive number uh as connor's eyes bulge out of his head. 95.5? How about 77? Yeah. Maybe combined. I'm sorry. I'm looking at combined.

That's my bad. I was about to say. 75.5. I'm going to go bet that on you right now. Yeah, my bad. No, because I was looking at it again. I'm like, that seems really high. Yeah, 75.5.

95.5 is his combined number. Still a little high because I feel like Denver's actually been not great against the run, surprisingly, mostly because they've had a ton of injuries. Linebacker core has been eaten up, but too much for Dak or for Zeke here. I think Dak has a nice field day. They're going to have to struggle getting any pressure on him, so I think he comes in, even though it's his first game back. I think he was probably pretty close to playing last week,

so not really worried about that. Dan wants to know, how do we handle the Kittle situation? Yeah, we've talked about this a lot in Slack. I thought it was going to be a nice spot. Again, Debo, his workload right now is insane. But he's a little dinged up, like dealing with a calf injury, limited practicing. And Brandon Ayuk took a massive

jump in work last week uh massive jump in in uh snaps routes run targets per routes run all those things that just is a little bit of a wet blanket on him with Kittle coming back so for me it's just kind of a stay away in a game again where they can run the football Arizona, who is struggling to stop the run this year and a game again, Kyler might be out in this game. So there's just, there's too many variables here and this becomes a really run heavy game for San Francisco with Kyler out. I don't want to be holding any receiving tickets on the San Fran side. Yep. You guys are shaking your head and agreeing with me. So I agree.

Yeah. Awesome. It is a good question. You guys are starting to see less volume each week as the season goes. Books are getting really sharp. I agree, probably a little bit, but not a ton overall. Again, it's mostly because it buys too. We just have fewer games to choose from. Yeah, my volume is down a bit this week, but I also think that there's more of an edge now kind of waiting for injury news and reacting to that

rather than their opening lines are getting sharper at your point. So whereas in years past, as we mentioned, the opening lines were not very sharp and some of them are still not. But, you know, I think now at this point, a lot of them are way more sharp than they were. And the ones that are not get steamed and moved by sharp groups within an hour. All right, we're going to rapid fire. I'm going to list them off.

If you have something to say, just give me a little bit of raise your hand. Otherwise, we'll keep it moving here. We don't get a lot of these. TJ Watt, over two and a half tackles against the Bears. It's a poor line. We don't have projections for tackles. I don't really have a way to measure this, but if it feels like a good line to you, let us know how it goes next week. Maybe we need to be getting into this market.

Maybe it's a leak in our game. Tanny, over 14.5 rushing yards. That's on Sunday night there against the Rams. We always love some low-bar rushing quarterback overs. I don't know what our number is for Tannehill, but it feels like a little high. I probably would want that to be in the single digits for me. 13.9.

13.9. Yeah. I don't know what the odds are on that. Stafford most passing yards on Sunday plus 650. Should be a high scoring game. Yeah. I mean, I don't know. I know that Derrick Henry matters.

I don't know how much overall a lot of running backs impact the overall offense. I think that Tennessee gets a nice bump if Julio is back offensively. So you can sell me on this game being a nice high-scoring game. I think there are better prices on the board. I'd rather get three times the number on Joe Burrow. Yeah, he's plus 650 for a reason. But we do have him projected for the most passing yards. Dylan said this Landry number is updated, 5.5.

Yeah, I mean, again, I think we're seeing 8 to 10 low A-dot targets for Landry there. I don't hate 5.5 whatsoever, so you can tell me on that. Let's see. Tyreek. Hit Tyreek in moments to leave the slate in receiving a passing yards last year versus Tampa. Yeah, get in these.

Correlate those. Make some money. You guys are awesome. We appreciate it. Thoughts on Quez Watkins over two and a half catches at minus 120. Again, Quez tied to Jalen Hurts. That is a tough place to be sometimes in the passing game. A lot of variance there.

Some other questions here. Thoughts on Cordero Patterson this week? Any prop thoughts on Cordero? Receiving yards maybe? I like the over on the receiving yards. It was like 33.5, I think, and we rejected for like 50 again. I mean, he's been going way over that, but his usage has been just strange lately after the bye.

It's just like all over the place in terms of him getting more carries. Yeah, super tough matchup. Pick two, Emmanuel Sanders. Did we do this? We did this. Kind of. Sanders, Kirk, Judy, Patrick, Van Jefferson is a little different. I'm still going Emmanuel Sanders.

You get two. I'm going Judy and Emmanuel Sanders. Yeah. I'm trying to move. I'm trying to move, Connor. All right, all right, all right. Yeah, going Judy and Emmanuel Sanders. Yeah. Yeah. I'm trying to move. I'm trying to move, Connor. All right, all right, all right. Yeah, that's fine.

Excellent. Kelsey, under 76 and a half. Yeah, I mean, Kelsey didn't look good the other night, but he got James Bradbury treatment. Like, they were using their best corner to slow him down and bracketing Tyreek. That might happen to Darren Waller this week, I think is pretty interesting.

But, yeah, definitely people are talking about Kelsey possibly being washed. I think probably if you are a DFS player, I suggest maybe approaching Kelsey in DFS tournaments versus a binary prop market. Let's see. Jared Cook over 27 and a half receiving yards against the Eagles there. That seems okay to me. We have 40 projected.

That's a good bit different. Good over. Stafford over two and a half passing touchdowns. I don't really have an appetite for passing touchdown props, but again, they love the throw. I'm hoping you get plus money on that. Austin Eckler, over 41.5 rushing yards. It's okay to me.

I consider it. I liked his receiving yards a lot, lot more. 41.5 rushing. I think it's rushing instead of 60. I'll say, yeah, wait a second. Yeah, because we have 65 rushing. Yeah, 40 and a half is what I got the receiving number at. So this is probably a receiving question.

Yeah, that's probably what he's talking about. Yeah. Over 41 and a half receiving, yes. I took 40 and a half and go for it. Dan can't skip the gym. Son of a bitch. Higgins over four and a half receptions. It's probably a pretty efficient number.'d rather go with his his yards yeah batia bets checks in uh he wants knish

all my golf clubs what i want uh let's see last one gaskin most rushing yards uh 33 to 1 against the worst defense in the league yeah I mean I think his box scores look different last week because of the way that that game went things worked out well for him the week prior from a rushing standpoint because Malcolm Brown is out and they weren't using Salve Nachman as much so I can get behind a Gaskin's number there um, I think we're either boring Alex or he's sleeping on us. Sorry.

Oh, it's the best. All right. Let's get to the favorite portion of the show. The player prop tool bet of the week from Sal. All right, Sal. Timmy G, over 204.5 passing yards. Okay. Minus 115.5 passing yards. Okay. Minus 115.

Our projections are 246. Very interesting here. I mean, I would want to know that Debo is good to go personally. Yeah. I think if Kittle is, you know, with Kittle in too, I think it could be good. Yeah, because I think Kittle is With Kittle in too I think it could be good Yeah because I think Kittle is active Yeah I mean 200 passing yards is nothing but again But if Kyler is not in like I don't think That the Niners are going to throw the ball more than 25 times

So I'm with you Alex any leans here? Yeah I mean it is obviously a very Low number certainly capable Of going over if the volume is there. But I'm with Connor that it's just unlikely that they're going to throw the ball a lot. Plus, there are just a lot of unknown variables in the game,

just not even knowing Kyler's status and things on San Francisco's side as well. So, yeah, I would lean over but don't have a strong take. I mean, Sal's't have a strong take. I mean, Sal's been rolling on these still. So we just got my, my favorite question here. Who is Sal? So producer Sal.

Shout out Sal. Yeah. Sal is our producer. He's the guy behind the scenes doing all this, putting up the prop tool, the one who decides the prop tool better the week. And we don't know what it is prior to coming on. That's why I,

I'm staring at it so intently. So trying to read it and figure out what it is prior to coming on that's why i i'm staring at it so intently to try and read it and figure out what it is do we know what the season long uh record on the prop tool is uh no it's definitely positive i think he won it the first three or four weeks in a row yeah i think he's only missed one or two and i think he missed one because we answered a question and then he had to pivot yeah yeah we yeah someone in the chat asked the question that he wanted so so we pivoted. So we give him credit for that one.

So, yeah, I think he just had the one loss. So, yeah, Producer Sal has been on it. The prop tool is really cool. Again, it's part of our package here at 444. If you get a betting subscription, it runs off of our projections, allows you to pick your state, whatever books you want. You can customize things. Really is Ryan?

I'm Ryan now. So the 4 for 4 package, it's phenomenal. It's a great value. Customize stuff, the player prop tool. I exited myself in the chat. I was scrolling over, and I'm like'm like oh i love the studio yeah alex just rolled with it i mean he did not miss a beat it was just like all right i'm ryan let's keep going four and then just give us a little plug there you're the man yeah so it's an awesome tool

if you're watching on video before i exited the video take a look at the tool it's awesome again part of our betting sub at four for four So Alex is a professional, man. You know, like brought the bear in here. We had a little bit of Profstars after dark. We got a full car wash of the Profstars experience this week. So got to do a meme play with Hank Peterson. Love that. Doesn't get any better than that. Can't wait to catch that.

Fellas, let's get some winners this week everyone again we super appreciate you hanging out with us we'll be back to do this in the same spot next week again don't forget to subscribe so you don't miss a show connor and i will be back on wednesday breaking down the games for week 10 from a betting perspective and then again friday right here with our boy prop star so for connor and alex I'm Ryan. We will see you next week.