Move The Line - PROVEN Strategies for DOMINATING In-Season and Futures Player Prop Bets

Episode Date: June 1, 2023

Looking to gain an edge in the world of sports betting? Join us as we unveil the ultimate guide to in-season and futures player prop bets. In this comprehensive video, we dive deep into the strategies and insights that will revolutionize your approach to betting. Discover how to identify lucrative opportunities, leverage key statistics, and make informed predictions like a seasoned pro. Whether you're a beginner or a seasoned bettor, this evergreen advice will equip you with the tools to elevate your game and maximize your winnings. Don't miss out on this must-watch video that will change the way you bet on player props forever! Subscribe now to our betting channel for more exclusive content and become a master of the game.Timestamps:0:00 Intro2:28 What is EDGE Boost?5:58 Leveraging Trends7:14 Why Unders Are Appealing11:21 When Would You Take An Over?24:51 Bookmakers To Take Notice Of27:46 Is Line Shipping Still Worth Chasing?31:42 Value of Pick’em Sites & Parlays45:30 Early 2023 NFL Player Props54:58 OutroShow Notes:Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansDouble Your Next Bet with EDGE Boost 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3N4MVnI Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Jack on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/JackMiller02Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Player props have never been more popular. They're at the heart of what we do here at 4 for 4 Bets, but we've never really devoted an entire episode to the process, and we're going to do that today. How do we identify a bad line? Is there a sharp bookmaker for player props? And how do we avoid getting limited? Plus, we're going to touch on some of the early looks

in the season-long prop market that have caught our attention. So let's dig in. Yeah! in the season-long prop market that have caught our attention. So let's dig in. Hello and welcome to Move the Line. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by Connor Allen. Connor, are you home today? I feel like you've been traveling or you have a bunch of upcoming travel going on. It looks like maybe you're at the home office today. Yeah, I'm at home, but I'm heading to Vegas in like two hours so uh yeah it's gonna be like a show and then like you know take a lift out of here uh yeah and start gambling faster party so it should be a good time nice I absolutely love that and we'll continue to live vicariously through you as along with our guests we were

talking about before the show I brought on a special one for you today, a former teammate of ours here at 4 for 4, now part of the props team, wears many hats over at Establish the Run. It is Jack Miller. Jack, welcome to the show, bud. Thank you guys for having me on. Excited to be here, excited to talk props. I always like talking about betting stuff, and good to see, I feel like, the fantasy space transitioning a little bit more toward betting which I I like a lot yeah love that we'll talk specifically about that here today I'll let folks know that we will continue to have an episode every week leading up to the start of the season which is fast

approaching uh we're in double digits now in terms of countdown today's the opening day um lots of lots of other original content here on the 444 bets youtube YouTube page. Subscribe so you don't miss a show. If you'd like to support the free content, thumbs up, comments on the video, all those things go a really long way. And jump in the chat. Let us know how you attack the prop market. Perhaps there's a favorite season-long look that you have out there right now. We'd love to hear from you.

Still available as well in podcast form wherever you download podcasts. Subscribe there so you don't miss a show. Five stars, all those all those things again go a long way in supporting all the free content and we really really appreciate that Connor we have a new partnership something I know that you're excited about and have been working on uh behind the scenes of late um before we jump into today's topic uh let folks know about what's going on yeah so. So we have a new partner called Edge Boost, and I'm kind of excited about it because it kind of matches betting with credit, except on legal books. And I think that that's a pretty cool concept here. So this company called Edge Boost, they will double your next bet on any sports book for free up to $250. And it connects directly to your sports book, no fees, no interest. You can pay them back over a

couple of weeks. So for those of you like me, who have already basically used directly to your sportsbook. No fees, no interest. You can pay them back over a couple of weeks. So for those of you like me, who have already basically used all of your sportsbook deposit bonuses and matches, I think this is a great way to maximize your winnings responsibly. So if you've used credit books in the past, again, it's basically the same thing, except on a legal purpose. So I think that this is a great, great way to kind of gain leverage if you have a lot of conviction on a play or something like that.

I think it's really, really useful specifically. And then if you guys want to listen to that in this episode, I actually did a short 10 minute interview with the CEO and founder, Sonny Thomas, super sharp guy, explains it significantly better than I do. But yeah, I would definitely check it out. I'm already signed up. So. Yeah. I'm interested in hearing more. This is brand new for us. Definitely hang out and check out the end of the interview. You can get probably a lot of your questions answered through that interview with Connor there. So good stuff.

Always want to remind folks before we jump into, great time to scoop up a betting subscription at 444. It's going to secure access to everything on the site, everything you're going to need to be profitable this season. Articles, tools, rankings, projections, DFS, high stakes, redraft, all the best ball stuff you could possibly imagine. There's also the subscriber-only Discord, obviously, which is, I think, really the crown jewel of the subscription. It's essential to the betting sub. It's where all of the plays are pushed through. Great, growing, like-minded community. So even if Connor, Clark, and I aren't in there all the time, there are lots of other folks that are very sharp to kind of bounce stuff off of. So great place to be.

If you dabble in any of the Pick'em sites, like PrizePix, Underdog, No House Advantage, VividPix, we have channels and posted plays in there as well. You can head over to 444.com slash plans. If you are looking to grab a subscription for cheap, you just want to kind of dip your toes in the water, we have partnered with both No House Advantage or VividPix. Whichever you like, you can do both.

Really, really easy. Just go download those apps. Use promo code 444BET when you sign up. Minimum deposit of $5. It's going to get you three months of a betting subscription at four for four. Now it's not going to cover obviously the entire season, but it gets you just an access, a little bit of what's going on now with the futures, get you the start of the NFL season, which is pretty exciting too, or pretty close there too.

So again, great way to do it. If you go over to like vivid, they'll match your deposit bonus up to 200 bucks. But if you're just looking to take advantage of the betting subscription, $5 deposit. So super cheap way to get access to all that we have going on. Insanely good deal. Take advantage of it. So all right, gentlemen, props. It's been, like I said at the top, just kind of growing year over year. I think we've seen, as Jack even mentioned briefly, we've seen the transition to maybe even old school fantasy players, people that were just maybe sides and totals. Because back in the day, literally I've been betting NFL longer than Jack has been alive. We didn't have broad menus, really. It was just sides and totals for the most part, like very, very small limits, very small menus. And now it's just a

crazy world out there in terms of what we can do. Connor, I know you've done a lot of work in terms of trying to scrape data to get an understanding of how we can leverage anything that's happened out there trend-wise. Do you want to share some of that stuff before we get into it? Yeah, we'll talk about that. So this is a season-long prop market specifically. So I think that this is important to clarify there. So I went through the last two years of data, shout out to Sam Hoppin for getting that all together for me. But if we look at, break it down by category, we break it down by year. So unders specifically in 2021, and we're talking about probably, I think we're at 650 prop sample size over two years. So not super small, like pretty significant. We're looking at 63%

of the time it went under in 2021, 60% went under in 2020. If we're looking at the specific categories, passing yardage unders went under at the highest rate, 74% over the past two seasons, 43 and 15 towards the under. Rushing touchdowns was the second highest at 66%, 39 and 20 towards the under. And this includes most domestic books, you know, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, you know, I think PointsBet as well, but most of the best lines were not there. And that was assuming you got the best line. So, you know, I think that for me, it's kind of like almost an under nothing at this point. And I was 75% unders last year. And I think this year I'm probably probably just gonna be 100% unders Jack,

is that kind of how you approach it as well? Yeah, pretty much. I think like, like you said, there's just so many ways for a player to go under, he can get injured, he can lose his job, I think, under nothing is basically the way I'm going to be moving forward. And the way we're going to be at ETR, I think last year, on season long unders, we were like 22 and five. So, I mean, you're talking about numbers where if you just blindly fire on the under, and if you take a moment and kind of look at projections or think through, you can hit even higher than the numbers you just threw out there.

So yeah, I think for season long props at this point, it's pretty easy just to not take overs at all really yeah you have to have like a situation change where like you're kind of somewhat beating you know the market in terms of news or something like that where there's a really clear role change or something that's happening that makes the the overplay in the season-long market because as you said like you know we try to go back and forth in terms of what we do here at four for four with season long projections and how that like relates to, you know, games played, you know, how, what's our projection number in terms of, you know,

games played. Are you reusing a full seven? Are we assuming full health, which I think is, you know, somewhat flawed to do, but I think obviously getting into the space where you're projecting injuries is also really a slippery slope, right? Where, you know, it's just a really, really hard thing to do. We see that in fantasy football for years where it's like, oh no, this guy's injured.

You can't take this guy or he's injury prone. We saw CMC last year. You can't take CMC one-on-one. He gets hurt all the time. And right. And then he just doesn't, it's just, it's a really hard thing to, to predict. But to Jack's point, there's so many outs, right?

Just on top of bad performance, there's, you can lose a job. And then just sometimes even the way some of these things are booked in, it's like, he, it's like a ceiling outcome. And yeah, like I think we're predisposed to, at least I know I am right. This is something that like, I've had to kind of step back and in terms of like looking at a matchup or looking at a player going into a season. I really like that guy this year. I think he is set up for a really nice year.

We're less likely to lean on, I just don't like this guy this year. There's nothing really analytically driving that. But even in a week-to-week situation, and we'll get into that more too,'s like i really like this matchup for player x well does that mean that that number is already accounting for the fact that they expect you to like it this matchup is terrific well yeah they're probably baking in some of that into the number um connor how do we like handle some of that like nuance in terms of situational change player you know matching like oh look he's in comparatively it's like his adp in underdog their numbers are 200 yards off in the point like some of the stuff that we see out there in the space yeah i think it's tough and it's something we've talked about

occasionally but it's like finding ways to pick like get exposure to players that you like versus don't like and i think that the binary proud market is just not a way to get good exposure to like up to an over or like if you like a player i think that fantasy binary prob market is just not a way to get good exposure to like up to an over, or like, if you like a player, I think that fantasy just generally, like if you like a player, you probably think that there's significant upside to said player, at least if you're playing fantasy. Right. And so like drafting that player or being aggressive with drafting them in fantasy leagues, I think is probably a better way to get exposure to a player than betting an over.

Because like you said, there's just so many outs for an under, I mean, like even last year, like, you know, I liked Alan Robinson. Like I alan robinson was going to be good and we could talk about this later but like i adjusted off my prior very fast it was like halftime i think of the thursday night game i'm watching at in vegas i'm like dude this guy's cooked i'm like he's got nothing left he's like barely getting open not getting targeted i was like this is sunk uh so obviously i was holding on hope but like i kind of knew right away so it's one of those things where i just think that for now on like i look back at the overs because obviously we track everything in four four i look back at everything and i'm like what was i thinking on some of these you know it looks so dumb in hindsight and there's just so many outs for unders

season long right jack like we're betting into this market now right and the books are slowly kind of leaking some stuff out we've had you know kind of a little bit of a dump from caesars we could talk about some of those plays later at the end. You know, what are the situations in which you would take an over? There are very few, to be honest. I think it would really have to be a scenario in which a guy could get there in 12-ish games just to bake in any possibility of injury or losing his job. I think it would really have to be an egregiously bad number or an egregious difference from our projections, I should say,

for me to actually be interested in betting real money on and over. And I do think what Connor said about the fantasy market, which is ADP, that's attempting to price in a whole range of outcomes, whereas we're only looking at like the binary, yes or no, does he have this many yards. So I do think it's kind of like a different discussion there. And I agree with what Connor said about if I like a guy, I'm much more likely to get my exposure to him in fantasy rather than taking it over just because there's so many ways for it to lose. Jack, this applies to both futures bets or season-long props. But considering that you're going to make a bet now into the future market,

that's not going to pay you out probably until February or late January. How do you, in terms of bankroll management, in terms of exposure, how do you handle the futures market in general? Yeah, I think that's one of the most interesting questions that a lot of maybe new bettors don't think as much about. Me personally, I'm fine betting a lot of my bankroll into futures because at this point, I've hit limits on in-season props't, I don't bet sides and totals as much. So I'm not really, you know, looking to bet like the super nosebleed stakes. I'm just doing props and I've hit the limits on props.

And so I'd rather have my money invested in the futures rather than have it just sitting there. But I think if you have a smaller bankroll, it does make a lot of sense to consider like, if I put this amount into futures, then I can only bet this amount into futures, then I can only bet this amount on in season props because you lose that compounding weekly edge. If you don't have the bankroll because it's all tied up for six months. Yeah. I think if you, I mean, there's definitely a way to calculate this actually. So it's,

if you consider like your expected value of your futures prop, your expected value of your in season props, and then compare it to like the time value of money, essentially like the, you know, the opportunity costs of what you're forgoing basically with like tying it up. Honestly, it's just too much math for me to consider. And like, it's more probably marginal. Uh, so like, it's just kind of one of those things where for me it's opportunity based. And I would say like, if, you know, if I see something, I'm like, Oh, this is like, you know, again, like you're looking for unders or something that you're thinking. Probably for me, and honestly, in season long, it's kind of like a 70% plus range of outcomes,

or they're just not factoring in certain factors where there's an extra one or two outs. I think a good example for me was the Jimmy Garoppolo stuff. Those were hanging out there. I think it was probably a little overblown by the media, to be entirely honest, but it looks like he might not be ready for the season. He's got a surgery that no one knew about. He failed his physical, you know, like he could be cut technically again. I really don't think that's going to happen, but like all of those factors combined, it's like, okay, well his number probably shouldn't be sitting exactly where it

opened two months ago. And like our projections have him right around there. But I was like, look, if he misses any games, like it's going gonna be an uphill battle all year plus it's not like he's had a good bill of health like his entire career basically even if he does so um i don't know jack did you think about that one at all did you guys look at that i thought about it we project over on grappolo um by a few hundred yards so i didn't end up taking it but I definitely get the logic there um and then just to add on on like the whole like theory behind tying up money for for months I do think another thing to consider um and we're like really getting into the weeds here is like some of these like super high hold markets that aren't gonna pay out for like a year, whatever, like the edge on Super Bowl odds right now,

like is probably not super high. So if you're thinking about betting something like that, even if you think you have a positive edge, which I'd say like most of the time, you probably don't. You could probably like make more money like in like stocks or bonds or something. Like there's other options to do do stuff with your money besides betting and i think like when you're placing a bet um eight months in the future uh you you also have to consider like could i make more with

my money doing something else besides betting on sports yeah all great points and i know uh we talked about it a little bit early this offseason with Clark, and we'll probably do so here in terms of futures and his thought process there too, because I think there is math, like Connor said, it's definitely probably a little long and not a great lesson for this podcast, but I do think it is important to understand the opportunity cost of what's going on in terms of letting a number that you think is bad just kind of go because you don't want that money to sit there. I think it's also you're missing an opportunity to take advantage of bad lines, especially if you've proven... Ideally, first of all, you should be

tracking everything. You should be tracking this to be able to see, okay, is this something that I should be allocating more budget to every year because my ROI is pretty solid. And even though it does sit out there for a little bit, I do feel like I have an edge here. So I think some folks do shy away from futures because of that, but there's probably a missed opportunity there as well. We are seeing, as we've talked about already, a little of the fantasy move to betting. And I think we've saw where there was an introduction for years for a lot of people with dfs um we get into dfs sites similar to ours right betting is relatively new connor and i have essentially brought betting to four for four which is just kind of an og

um season-long fantasy site that started to do dfs when dfs blew up and um taking DFS projections and attempting to use them as the end all be all into the prop space, especially when you're getting into like not understanding are those projections mean or median is going to leave you in a really dangerous spot, Connor, in terms of overs or unders based off of off or using mean or median. Yeah, I think it's a good point here. And I think just like if you're looking at projections across the industry, I know that other sites have median projections, they have mean projections, and that's something that we're going to offer front-facing

on our player prop tool this year specifically. But it's just important differentiation because with fantasy, kind of like Joe and Jack said, you're looking at a whole range of outcomes, like ceiling outcomes in fantasy matter infinitely more than in betting. Uh, because unless you're taking ladders, which I will say, I think that's probably another good way to capture upside. If you are going to bet an over is to bet some ladders.

Um, instead of explain to folks that don't know what that is just in case. Yeah, absolutely. So ladders are, you know, you know, say me like a donkey, but you know, Alan Robertson over, you know, 50 is over under 56 and a half receiving yards in week one. You can bet 70 plus instead of at minus one 15, you can get it like plus one 25 plus one 30 80 plus receiving yards at like plus 200 90 plus, you know, and it goes up and up. So that way, basically it's just like, if you have conviction on a player, if you think that he's in a good position, good matchup, whatever, however you analyze the game, you're kind of maximizing, um, you know, your expected value, I think, as long as the player's range of outcomes are volatile. So yeah, I think that like understanding which projections you're using and like,

I guess the understanding of how good they are for each aspect is really, really important. Yeah. Something that you said we're working on and consider, you know, what we do is one of the best in the space, etr as well um how jack do you go about determining other than obviously putting it to the test but like you're tuning in new no idea who four is who etr is it's not like a four versus etr but how do you determine like what's a good projection site what are good numbers what are some of the um you know kind of the things that go into feeding some of that stuff to make sure that you guys are getting down on on good numbers as soon as they come out well for us we basically just use like our numbers and then we all we're also um comparing to other sites i think we use

four for four we use awesomeo or scotastic now um so so we're kind of take we're mostly using our projections but then we're also using like a wisdom of the crowds approach because in the industry have pretty reliable projections, whether it be ETR, 444, Fantasy Labs, like there's a bunch out there. The issue though would be that for all of these projections, if they're publicly available, which ours are, I think 444s are like other people are using those too. So I guess that's just something I'd keep in mind. But yeah, I think there's a ton of good, good projection sources out there at this point. It's just a question of which are, which spots can you find to beat the market? Yeah. We have a lot of tools set up Connor that are hopefully tying that in to make it easier for people where you can like look our projection next to all the numbers that are out there in Sportsbook to kind of get you an understanding of where the best line is. Trying to continue to make it as we can come in, you can get picks, you can get into Discord, you can find out what Connor and I are firing at.

But we really do want to lean on the teach a man to fish scenario where partially it's accountability, right? Like this is talked about at the other show. It's a very slippery slope in terms of sports betting. In this space too, where you're essentially buying picks, we don't want to be necessarily a pick selling service, right? We want to give you tools that help you educate, community that helps educate you in terms of the best way to do so versus just, I don't have any time. I'm just going to tail whatever these two guys are doing.

And then you just crush us when we have a bad week and we don't want that at all either. Yeah. I think it's funny because I think it's interesting. We see different people have different approach and I think that it makes sense in some aspects to not include any reasoning. I believe it's like hit hit man does it, I believe ETR, you guys don't generally provide any reasoning unless asked or like talked about it. And a lot of it's like, we don't want to give our edge away. RAS does it as well. And that's kind of the reason on everything is they say they don't want to give their edge away at all. And so if we kind of like factor that in, you know, like, I think we've taken a different approach,

you know, for better or worse, a lot of it, because it is kind of a teaching man to fish. But at the same time, like, you know, I can definitely like, if you have the track record to back it up, like, you know, like ETR does, like Hitman does. And like, you know, like all these people are like, well, well, you know, fuck you. Like, I don't need to give you anything, you know, like you pay, you're going to pay for it anyways. We're going to win.

So just bet it, you know, like, and I think that's a total reasonable approach as long as you can back it up. Now that's the biggest factor. If you can't, if you're going through a ton of swings, like it's not quite as easy to kind of do that. So yeah, I don't know. I think that the problem market specifically though, you talked about projections and like whether people have that information with how much it's steamed based, like at this

point with like Twitter cappers, with, you know, random people who maybe aren't using projections or just like, you know, pulling up the graphs and saying like, oh, this player in seven of the last eight, and I don't care about anything else. Just going to bet the over, you know, like that stuff to a large amount of followers can move markets pretty significantly. And so, I mean, it's something that I'm going to be paying attention more to try and like bet opposite opposites of like, honestly, at this point, because like, it's something that I'm going to be paying attention more to try and like bet opposite opposites of like, honestly, at this point, because like that's something where they're not factoring information. They're moving the marketing correctly, which is just moving off steam and there could be value on the other side. It's a good point. size and totals because we have what we've heard Clark talk about, basically like the top-down

approach that is really prominent, the top-down method in size and totals where you have these books that are known to be sharp lines. They are originators, the pinnacle bookmaker, even the circa model, which is kind of unique, where basically their line is considered, especially as you get closer to kick on a Sunday, it's like the truth, right? We know that there's so much liquidity into that line at that point where you feel like it's shaped. They've been able to leverage, instead of limits,

they're able to leverage the information from their database to just kind of make sure that the line is cultivated the right way we don't really have that in in prop markets because first of all we don't really have a clear like sharp book um in terms of like a line originator you know we just don't really have it as much and because limits are lower and because steam is such a thing um it makes it a little bit harder to kind of make sure that you're getting the right line. Now there's closing line value in terms of like, did I beat the opening number or the

closing number? But we don't know that it makes as much sense in terms of like sides or totals. And, you know, I beat the closing line value in terms of sides and totals. Typically you're going to be profitable. That isn't always the case, Jack, in terms of, and totals, typically you're going to be profitable. That isn't always the case, Jack, in terms of prop bets. Is there a book that you respect a little bit more in terms of their opening lines or where they close on a Sunday versus others, knowing that they're steamed more than pretty much anything else out there? Yeah, I think it's interesting because I don't think a lot of people really think about this, but I think it's something that if you're

betting these, it's really helpful to know. for props I definitely think like the pinnacles and bookmakers of the world that are you know known for sides and totals are not the best source here I'd say Caesars is probably the best because they take the biggest limits um they like they were taking like thousands of dollars on props last nfl season which is kind of ridiculous compared to what everyone else is doing um so like and um they would open it like the same lines as draft king so like if if you saw something was minus 150 at caesars but minus 115 at draft kings that doesn't mean like there's value on the Caesars' opposite side. It means someone smart hit the Caesars' line.

The second sharpest, I think, would be FanDuel. Sometimes they go a little bit crazy on their openers because they don't have the same source as a DraftKings Caesars. But their closing lines, I think they take the second biggest limits. I could be wrong there, but I'd say Caesars and FanDuel would be the best, but it's not like the same as a pinnacle for sides and totals where it's a source of truth. Yeah. I kind of agree with that too, Connor. Would you say, I mean, like they're not necessarily the best originators, but they let us get down, which is really part of the game at this point. It becomes really, really critical

over a long period of time if you are showing that you were winning better. Yeah, I mean, I don't even think, like Caesars taking thousands on props is pretty crazy, I think to me, to be honest. Like I completely understand not wanting to take a lot on props, but like FanDuel usually, yeah,

like closing lines, you're able to get down like a couple hundred at least, usually even my accounts, you know, pretty much cooked at this point on FanDuel on any future, like any long shot futures is usually like in the 20 to $30 range. Whereas like props, openers, you know, obviously are a lot less, but, you know, closing ones, you can get down a decent amount. Yeah. I mean, so actually Caesars that's I'm now, you know, making my reward status pretty high based on lately, because it's the only place that'll take, you know, any action, but in terms of limits overall,

something I've been thinking about is like, obviously I think that betting on every, like just having access to multiple sports books is so important and like spreading your action around and getting down what you can, because usually like drafting Caesars and MGM are kind of like pretty close to each other. FanDuel has been opening on like Saturday mornings, a lot of their props, which kind of sucks. But at the same time, if they're willing to take more, it's okay. And then, yeah, I mean like PointsBet, I don't even know if they're worth talking about because they won't take more than like 25, 50 bucks on anything. Yeah. I think people talk about having multiple sportsbooks a lot in terms of finding the best line. But I think for props, like when we're talking about sides and totals, we're talking about like a 2-3% edge. Props could be a 10% edge. So there's a little bit more leeway there in terms of like finding something that is plus ev period so i definitely agree with using your outs not just in terms of using the right line but in terms of like if you can get you know patrick mahomes over

284 yards minus 110 on draft kings and you think that's like a 11 percentage then you could also bet that on fanduel like 285 and a half minus 115 and like it's still probably plus ev and you're maximizing uh how much you can get down yeah Yeah. That's a great point. Cause it's like kind of gone in the days of like, Oh, you need to shop around. You need to find the best number. It's like, if you have an edge, you have an edge. And like, cause getting down is such a problem for anyone trying to get down. I would say in the, I don't know, two to $500 unit range, I would say per prop and obviously way more, um, you know, like, but I think in that kind of range, like, it's not necessarily easy to get down on.

So yeah, honestly, line shopping is obviously important. Get the best number if you can. But I would say almost like I was eating some shittier lines just because I couldn't get down enough on the better ones just because of what it is. And also, I mean, I think that... I think we're probably allowed to talk about this because I brought it up at the top. But price per head shops, I think are really good. So those are local bookies for those who don't know, you know, people who just use a website, they take action off of that. They have a thing called prop builder. Um, and usually that'll take usually 200 to 250 bucks, like just, and the lines usually drop like Fridays. Um, the lines are, I would say actually pretty sharp for

the most part. Um, they update quickly quickly. They are done by one service. So using that is usually fine. But obviously, having one or two extra books that will give you $200 a click on those, $250 on those, can obviously help as well getting down on props for those looking to kind of spread some action. Yeah. And the one caveat here is that if we're talking about like betting the same prop on like five to 10 books, you kind of have to originate your own stuff because if you're following an ETR or a hitman or four for four at the prop or whoever, the lines move like, like ETR takes

lines down in like five seconds. Like it's, it's kind of ridiculous. So if you're, you know, if we put out some type of prop and you're trying to bet it on 10 different sports books like it's just not going to happen because it's not going to be there unless you have like a paperhead book um that that you know has some stale line out still but in general for for that i think it's a very smart strategy um just to eat a little bit worse lines just to get more down if you think you have an edge but you do have to be originating your own players as opposed to following someone else this is actually another one of those spots where the pick'em sites have actually you know maybe I've warmed up to more

over the years right because the natural reason that you want to stay away from these spots is that they force you to parlay right and it's for the most part you know it could be uncorrelated parlays meaning like if you're betting you know nick chubb uh under 88 rushing yards and you know patrick mahomes over two and a half touchdowns and they don't play each other like they really have nothing to do with each other but because they are typically just slower to react i know again they don't have the menu of every, you know, a lot of these sports books, but you know, some of the like bigger markets that, you know, more general markets, they're slower to react and those numbers are out there. So at times it's like, well, I'm willing to, if I feel like I have a massive edge, now you're not moving quickly on

this. I'm willing to maybe eat a little bit of this Connor and get in and make a, you know, a smart two or three leg. And again, we've done some of the math in terms of like, what's the best way to, to, you know, build those, you know, plays out to make sure that you're maximizing the return on them. But, uh, that's kind of been some of the appeal to me of those over the last couple of years. Yeah. Noonan, I don't know if you know, but we are in the presence of a pick'em master. I mean, Jack has gotten kicked off of multiple pick'em sites, I believe.

So I'm going to let him take this question because I have not been kicked off of any so i'll kick it to jack here to be fair i deserve my prize pick then because i i was uh doing the college basketball and then they limited me and i multi-counted um and it was like i did it like extremely obviously like i made very little effort to hide what i was doing and they caught on quick um so i can't be mad at that one but super draft i was doing a lot of wmba pick them last year and they did just straight up ban me and i've tried to get it back but they said no um but yeah i think the pick them sites this is like the place where i think i'm like most in opposition to like what i see a lot on twitter um i think parlays and the forest pick'em sites are super valuable

because they allow you to get down more and i think for like 98 of twitter or people the blanket advice that parlays are bad works because most people are like losing betters. But if you're winning better, the edge compounds positively in the same way it does negatively. So you can get more down by parlaying something and your edges compounding. So I'm a big pro parlay advocate. Same idea with the forced parlay sites. Yeah, absolutely. And I think also we've mentioned it a couple of times on this show that like getting down on situational things, uh, you know, on these sites is so much easier. So like week one last year, uh, Niners bears play Chicago. It's pouring rain the entire time. You're able to do a five leg parlay of every single passing

and receiving under like fields under Lance, under every receiver under. And I mean, they were taken like a couple hundred bucks to win. You know, I mean, I was able to win thousands on that easily just by getting down a couple hundred because it was just like such a good situational edge that like draft Kings was like fields prop was like, went from like two Oh five to like close, like one 70 or something like that by kickoff, maybe even lower. Whereas like, you know, prize picks, other ones were like floating still like 190, 195, you know, something like that. And like all the receivers were still up, whereas like the legals were just like pulling everything down as fast as possible. And then same with later in the season with like the Vikings last year, like, you know, vivid was posting lines on the Vikings and like, we knew they're

only gonna play a half. So like, it was a little bit too close for comfort. We, but we won and like, you know, you could bet the under like blindly there. So like they'll post things that other books don't have, they'll take higher limits. So yeah, like I definitely understand that you're losing some EV on like, you could get this parlay at DraftKings, but you also only get $2 and 30 cents on DraftKings, you know, whereas you can get $230 on one of the other sites. Yeah. And underdog, um, their their pick them if you do the three legs, it's minus 122 average. I think five legs is like minus 121, so it might be a little bit better.

And they don't limit individual users. So I think that's super valuable. And then for situations like that Bears-Niners game, the big one that I remember is the Browns-Saints win game last year. Even on the sportsbooks, they were pricing correlation wrong because they were assuming it was a normal game. So Deshaun Watson passed yards under and Andy Dalton passed yards under. Usually it would be negatively correlated because you think like one of them's losing or whatever so they're more likely to pass more but this was a situation in which um they're just going to run

the whole game because they can't throw in 40 mile an hour wins so i think situations like those are another spot where parlays are valuable where like the book or same game parlays are valuable i should say where the books are pricing correlation normally or in any situation just incorrectly, and you can kind of take advantage of that some of the time. Yeah, so remember the top, five bucks, no house advantage, vivid picks, four for four bet, get the betting sub, get in there.

I'm excited. I did not take advantage of vivid last season and i definitely uh will be this year because i completely nuked my draft kings accounts so um and i they're typically pretty quick and early in the the tackle streets which is something that i like to get down on um how you know jack you talked about basically you know you're not doing anything side to totals. You are doing other sports. I'm assuming for the most part, those are also props. But you can tell me if I'm wrong.

How do we mix in some other stuff, right? Well, you kind of keep them off the scent. Connor and I have talked about this a lot where, you know, you don't want to necessarily make a negative EV bet. Maybe you'll bet a side or a total here or there. You'll mix it in a little bit. So that way you're trying to like, you know, wet the beak a little bit of the sports book, let them know, Hey, I'm not just going to beat you on closing lines all the time. I'm not just going to destroy you in the prop market. I'm willing to get you a little bit of something else. Is that part of your process at all to kind of balance, not balance your portfolio, but just kind of sometimes throw them off the scent a little bit.

Yeah, this is something I think i could be better at and it's part of the reason why like 90 of the bets i'm making are at caesars nowadays um but i i do think there's some value in betting sides and totals if you can find one that is zero ev like in if you're betting mostly props a zero ev side is like positive ev because it's good for account longevity. Another one, and I don't totally know if this is true, so I can't like really go out and say like this will help preserve your accounts. But I do think maybe sportsbooks just see like prop parlays and think like, oh, this guy doesn't know what he's doing or like same game parlays maybe because that looks like pretty square action

because they love same game parlays and they love parlays in general so if you're making plus ev parlays maybe that could preserve your account a little bit longer but that's kind of just a theory as opposed to something that i like heard from someone working at a sports book um that they actually do look at um i i do think like also if you get a new account i don't know if we can get into that at all. And it's like a long-term loser. And all of a sudden you're like max betting WNBA props, like you're probably going to be found out pretty fast. So just kind of thinking through like from the book perspective, like what does this action look like is pretty helpful. But that's definitely

an area in which I'm like looking to improve still. Yeah. It's not something that I've done particularly well either, to be honest. And has resulted in, you know, obviously a lot of issues to given where we're currently at, but Illinois will be getting, I believe mobile casino pretty soon. That's something that I've heard is actually very successful in preserving accounts is like people are, you know, doing slots and, you know, like blackjack, you you know things like that helps a lot and you sit on the couch ripping slots on your phone i'm just gonna get like uh like just like a bot to like just press the button you know like 100 bucks a day you know whatever just like however long it takes to burn through 100 bucks

a day you know like i don't even want to win just donate it um i tried to do that uh with college basketball during the tournament i was betting like last minute sides still got banned uh like i don't think i won any money like i think i was like even i was betting like last minute like just laying the points with yukon every time i mean that that ended up working but everything else was like not that good so yeah they're they're probably like wow this guy's like super sharp just i mean yukon's crushing the line every game yeah man i just liked i like their style and i guess that turned out pretty well but like i think the same game parlay thing i've heard a lot of people have success with that specifically like just do like a lot of same game parlays and if you can get down on that like so

mgm actually um i'm you know i'm cooked on that but they were letting me get down 200 uh on same game parlays so you're able to do so what i was able to do later in the season was you can bet like you know and they have like alternate so you bet your regular prop and then throw in like the quarterback over like 20 pass attempts or like the running back over like you know the bare minimum like rush attempts and i know again like i know you're losing ev but like you're able to get down a little bit more um and i think that that like especially on a side like mgm where i would say the lines are fairly soft in a lot of areas like that's a really good way to get down a little bit more that's something that i started playing with last year now again could be different this year

but i mean it was like most of the playoffs i was able to get down you know usually to win 2000 total uh on a lot of that stuff yeah the problem i'm running into like so i don't bet a lot of sides but when i do bet sides it's almost exclusively the look ahead window um with the sole purpose that i'm going to beat the closing line so that's not great um i used to tell myself a story that betting golf outrights would help preserve my accounts. That did not work either. Just theoretically, I mean, it's 156 guy golf tournament. I'm picking, you know, three or four guys to win. You know, you would think that like, Hey, this guy doesn't really know what he's doing. So that is just kind of a trick too, that doesn't really work. So yeah,

I think these are all really good uh good tips try i think try to spread yourself out you know get in a spot last year where obviously we had a lot of success with the tackles um it felt like we were moving the market in a pretty massive way in an untapped market uh but there's no way that that did not put me uh even more so on radars very very quickly and now i mean literally cannot get down more than 50 cents on anything on draft Kings, which is very, very frustrating. So, well, my wife is suddenly very much into tackles. We'll see how that works. But again, that's kind of speaks to Jack's point.

Like that's kind of a dormant account that's been there for three years. It's about like a total of maybe five or six times. And then all of a sudden we come hammering, you know, $300 tackle props. We're probably in some trouble there too so it's a slippery slippery slope yeah i mean have you thought thought at all about like how you're going to approach that because i mean like prayer props niche tackle props are even more like i know so yeah i mean that's something too that was interesting tonight it was going to bring it up and i know jack brought it up already because i know he bets wmba and some stuff like that where

it's like yeah you're betting the niche stuff. And then, yeah, it's not getting bet into as much as some of the other stuff, but I feel like that flags you even quicker because like, well, why all of a sudden is this guy betting massive amounts of money into a, you know, very much a niche market and is hammering us. That's going to very much set off some alarms. So Caesars does offer tackle props. So that's pretty massive. I need to do a better job taking advantage of the pick'em sites uh i would love to see fandle i don't have really any problems with fandle um but i would love for for fandle to get into to that street but really it's probably just going to be a lot of uh action over at caesars for the most part so yeah it's it's uh

i'm not looking forward to to figuring it because DraftKings is usually first and sometimes a little bit better. But yeah, that's long gone. Yeah, as someone who is not really in the accounts game that much, Caesars, PropBuilder, and then the Pick'Em sites are basically like almost all of where I'm betting these days. Yeah, it's tricky. It is definitely, you know,

we hear Levitan and ETR talking all the time about clean accounts and, you know, doing your best to make sure that you are not doing what we did basically on DraftKings and destroying accounts. But at the same time, like sometimes you got an edge, it's unique, you got to push a little bit and, you know, figure it out after the fact.

And that's kind of where we are now, figuring out after fact. So, yeah, some, uh, I mean, I'm sure there's plenty of people in our same boat here too. I had a bunch of subscribers like reach out to me because I was like, I mean, there are some ways around, not even necessarily around it, but like just like ways to get down. And I think that we've done a pretty good job explaining that. And I was listening to some, I remember where it was with some like pro betters are talking about like being a pro better is like less about like like even like having an edge and more about just like finding accounts to get down on and like where you can have liquidity at because it's like otherwise, you know, even if you have an edge, like if you can't get down on it, like it

basically doesn't even exist. Like it doesn't even matter. That's kind of how I felt. I feel like being in some chats and some group chats with Jack, I kind of felt like that with the NFL draft, especially early in draft season where, you know, books were so slow to put stuff out and it was almost exclusively draft Kings. And it's like, am I even betting the NFL draft this year?

Because like, they're the only place that takes anything. And I, you know, I remember trying to get down on Bijan and like, you know, early March, Bijan and the Falcons. And it's like, I saved a screenshot. It's hilarious. I did it last night where I was like trying to find some speculative stuff on deshaun watson like or uh deandre hopkins where is he gonna play i'm like oh 25 to 1 for him to go back to houston that's interesting draft kings has that like 39 cents like i don't even know what to do with that like where's that number even like born out of? So that becomes very, very frustrating, frustrating, especially when they do offer a sizable pool of options. You're trying to navigate that is,

is pretty frustrating. It just takes you out. You can't even really, it doesn't even exist because you can't really get down on it. Yeah. I forgot who tweeted it, but like someone was tweeting about how Caesars on NFL props I think it's like minus 117 on college basketball props they're charging minus 121 um and someone tweeted like the juice doesn't matter and I it kind of reminded me of like the meme with like the bell curve and like the guys on opposite end and then the guy like this doesn't it won't apply for like 99% of people but like on what like with the Caesars charging higher juice, but also taking higher limits.

It's like, like, you know, I'm just going to bet this and Caesars. And then the middle guy's like, no Caesars is charging like 0.5% extra hole. And then on the far right side, you've got again,

like the juice doesn't matter. It's kind of, it's kind of where we're at. Good. Anything else? I guess kind of, you know, 50,000 foot view in terms

of props that you guys wanted to share we can get into some other any early looks that you like that are kind of out there in the prop market again mostly over at caesar's so we'll jump into some of those if you guys don't have anything else for the people no i'm good i think that's right yeah uh connor you've dug in and you've uh fired at a few things and i know some other stuff danced around, I have some notes too, some stuff that I like. Again, utilizing some tools. We have a lot of this on the site that you can be able to,

if you have access to all these books and you can get down, we have tools out there where you can compare lines. We even have tools in season where it is factoring the price as well so that you understand really what the EV is on the bets and not just the binary over-under number. I think that's really important too, as Jack has kind of spoke of. It might be minus 150 at one place and minus 115 at another. We have some of the tools on site that can do that for you as well.

Connor, I'll let you get kicked off. Share something that you like that's out there, ideally over at Caesars. Yeah, I thought one that was fun was DJ Chark under – well, it's not fun. It's an under. But DJ Chark under 725. I mean, it opened at 750. I mean, I think there's a legit chance he gets out-targeted by Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo.

I mean, I think that the tight end could end up playing a role as well. It's way too much confidence in a guy who literally only runs like nines like i mean he literally doesn't do anything else if you look at his routes so yeah i mean like bryce young i think it'll be good it'll be an upgrade we haven't projected for like around i think like mid 600s it just seems like one of those things where if mingo steps up at all like he could legit be third in targets on a team that i mean we have just don't really know much about their passing game like bryce's passing yardage right now is like mid three thousands. Like I, I just don't think that they're going to be all that good, like right away. So I thought that one was pretty interesting. Um, I don't know how many you want me to give. I got like, I got like two that I

really like two or three that I really like set them all the Jack, but like, other than that, like we can't, I can't release them officially because they'll get, they'll like see the Caesars lines move off of like a couple hundred bucks a pop. So I don't think that, I mean, we'll see. I mean, I don't know. Do you think the listeners will move the line? Like, you know, pun intended there like that much or no? I've seen it happen. I mean, look, I, again, we're not the only ones that were doing content around the awards market.

But we talked about, I think, like Rishi Rice, that number was like 66 to 1. When we did the show, I went to write up an article about it a couple of days later and it was 35. So again, these things do move. I do think that there are other people out there doing that content and have probably noticed that line line as well but that's what we're here for right we are all right then i'm giving one that's it that's why that's my one i got i got three more because i'm hoping that other books release these because i mean i got down on a little bit on it but like i don't want to like destroy the market so like we'll do we'll do one each time we don't want to kill it all right i'm not going to do this one but another one that's interesting and maybe we could talk about it too

because as we get into these situations, we've done this in the win total streets where we have some leans under on multiple teams in the division, and that gets a little bit tricky too. I also think it's not mine. I'll come back. But Adam Thielen under is also pretty interesting to me too. Fairly dusty. The number is, I think, 575 and a half.

Now we're banking on two unders on the same team. Maybe we should just be betting Bryce Young unders. But I also think that Thielen is maybe on the wrong side of it at 32 and not being able to get any separation. All that stuff is kind of turning in the wrong direction. So I like the Shark play too. But what's one for you, Jack? We'll let you give out.

You can give out more if you want to, but you don't have to. I'll stick with one if everyone's doing one. I do like the feel and play. 700 yards in 17 games last year, and his yards per outrun has gone down in five straight seasons. So I think he's pretty much washed kind of. He's dust. And on a way worse passing offense.

I'll give out – this one was like 25 or 50 yards higher when it came out. But I like Marquez Valdez Scantling under 625 he had around 675 if I'm remembering last year and he played all 17 games there's uh some possibility that Kadarius Toney does well although you know I'm not super optimistic on that maybe Sky Morrison's uh the big one obviously would be maybe they signed DeAndre Hopkins. But I think like, even in the current state where he is right now, he has not proven the ability to gain to earn targets even with a pretty terrible depth chart at wide receiver. And he had 675 in 17 games he played every game last year. He could get hurt and go under that number. Maybe Sky or

Kadarius Tony ascends. Maybe they sign Hopkins. I think there's just a lot of ways for him to go under that number. I think we're all kind of touching on some of the key things that I think we should be looking at too. And that's ambiguity in the situation. We have some unknowns in terms of like, where is Shark in the pecking order of Carolina receivers. Jack just listed a bunch of Chiefs wide receivers that could really emerge in terms of like second year in the system, second year in the league. They can go out and add a Danjari Hopkins and change the dynamic of that entire offense. So leaning on those situations, I think, are really good to attack and that's kind of where i am too and i'd love to get you guys thoughts is um jeff wilson's rushing yards uh six hundred and a half i think is the number on caesars where we have three running backs there right they drafted

uh devon hane they only had four picks in the entire draft they use one on hane like you saw the clip of mike mcdaniel like fist pumping when they drafted him, like he's super fired up there. They obviously have Raheem Mostert back. This is a team that, you know, with Tua, I think will continue as long as he's upright, continue to skew a little bit pass heavy. And there's just a lot of unknowns in terms of what the balance is there. We know it's really tricky to kind of pinpoint what a Mike McDaniel, Kyle Shanahan,

49er backfield is going to look like. So lean under. Our projections are way short of this. I want to talk to Paulson about it too. It was really kind of the first in line in terms of what those look like, but I think we have them at 388. So we are comfortably under 600 yards right now in our stages of projections. But again, just to the point of the same thing that the other guys did here too, is just, there's a lot of unknown in terms of usage. And I think that that's pretty bad number at 600 and a half. Jack,

Jack better, right? We have a, yeah, I did like that one. Someone sent it to me like Ray, when it opened, and I also sent mustard,

mustard, which I also like as an under it is kind of like that feel and shark where if one goes under maybe the other goes over but i i think generally that's not something i worry about too much of i think in a vacuum two bets are plus ev um and with this dolphins backfield there there's also a little bit of like Dalvin Cook potential, which would immediately like tank these numbers by like 300. So I like the Wilson under Mostert. We project slightly over his number. I think I don't remember what it is, but he's 31 or around there. He has an injury history. Maybe A-Train comes in and does something. Maybe they

sign Dalvin, although that's probably less likely. So I do like the Wilson. I do like the Mostert. Yeah, he's just a lot of questions and also not a pitcher of health in his career either. I mean, none of them are. We're also comfortably over on Mostert, but I don't necessarily agree with that as well. And maybe i'm overrating the rookie coming in i just think he's uh you know going to be a pretty exciting option there and uh you know some highlight reel runs could be uh pretty exciting but connor yeah if one of them uh if if they sign dalvin i mean one of them's gonna get cut then right like i mean i would assume i haven't looked at any of the cap stuff i don't know who's more expensive off the top of my

head but like i would assume they're not going to carry four backs. I mean, usually it's only three. So most are covering kicks again. Yeah, like A-chain's not like going to get cut. Obviously, they just drafted him and they love him. So, you know, it would be one of those two would get the boot. And so obviously them landing in like another situation. I mean, there's no way they're rushing for 600 yards as like a backup

or maybe even third string to wherever they'd land. So it's an interesting look. Something that Jack talked about to offline was like kind of be like waiting for the DeAndre Hopkins and Dalvin Cook news to happen in terms of like, wherever they sign betting the ancillary players like unders. So like, you know, if he goes to the Chiefs, like you talked about, like MBS unders or like, you know, an auto smash Dalvin, obviously, again, if he goes to the dolphins, like, I mean, just hit both Raheem Ostrand and Wilson unders as much as you can. I mean, again, you're probably going to have, I don't know, 30 seconds, maybe a minute, like really less. So, I mean, download the fantasy life app fastest slurts in the industry, you know, shout out to them. But I really think that that's like an, I mean, again, if you can find props like this on a PPA, it's just the best place to get it.

Most of them don't have it at this point. So like, you know, Caesars right now, if you got it open, just like fire away. Cause those are like, I mean, I'm not going to say free money, but pretty close. Yeah. You should be circling some of the situations that make sense too. Right? Like, so like I lean under on Gabe Davis, for instance, already. But he goes to Buffalo and that Gabe Davis number is gone. So, you know, there maybe makes some sense even to get on the Gabe Davis number early because I kind of lean that way anyway. And there's a chance that it's 200 yards shorter, you know,

in a matter of minutes after he signs. So those are some of the situations. That's a good call on the Dalvin stuff too. So good stuff as always, Jack, really appreciate it. Let the folks know where they can find all your content. Yeah.

You can find me doing content at established around. I'm also involved in the projections and props processes there. And then on Twitter, you can find me at Jack Miller zero two. Thank you guys for having me on. I always love coming on and talking betting um so this was fun oh two is the year that you were born right that's why it is no it was uh i was born in 2001 but that was that was taken so i just like bumped it up a number oh man helps him younger already huh yeah but i mean as people saw

on the show like it's you know like i know a lot of old people that don't know shit. So like, just because Jack's young doesn't mean that he doesn't know what he's doing. He's very sharp in the space. I appreciate you greatly. I'll check out all the content that Jack does over at Establish the Run. We appreciate it as always. Connor and I will be back with Clark next week when he gets back from his vacation. So again, take advantage of those

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we will actually match it. So it's basically, you know, you get 2X leverage, just like on Robinhood or kind of, you know, on the stock trading app. We want people to be able to kind of have the opportunity to double down when they're extra confident about a certain outcome. It's 100% zero interest. There's no fees whatsoever. And just like, you know, Afterpay and Firm, all you do is you pay back, you know, the principal.

So basically what we gave you over four weeks, four equal installments, but there's no interest and there's no fees. Awesome. Yeah. I mean, it seems incredible. And that's one of the many reasons I'm excited to use it personally. And so I think that the, would you say that the most useful part for the better is the ability to double down, to kind of have credit? I mean, all the above, I guess. Yeah. I think that, especially from a responsible betting standpoint, I think it's really important to be able to offer something in the market that takes away the competitive advantage from a lot of the bookies. I mean, the number one reason

why people still call their bookies, I call them on a Tuesday for a Friday game. He fronts me all the cash. I don't really have to worry about to the following week. Of course, if I lose, I need to figure it out. Right. So I think for us, you know, we just want to be your cheapest form of capital. You know, if you still want to use credit cards, payday loans, don't recommend it, but you know, that's up to everyone individually. But you should basically tap us out first, you know, be worked to completely agnostic of whether you win or lose. And we're just a, you know, a great source of capital for smart bettors. Yeah, absolutely. And I think that you hit on it there specifically, but so how do you ensure that users like use your product responsibly? Because I believe that you have some kind of like specific payment plan to kind of pay the pay it back, right? Or start with lower limits, I believe.

Yeah. So we've, you know, we've really thought about this from the beginning. I think our whole business model is based on giving money to smart people and obviously having them pay us money back, especially since we're not charging interest on it. So we do a lot of things both for decreasing the risk on our side, but simultaneously that essentially kind of builds in a lot of responsibility features. We're actually a partner with the National Council of Problem Gaming as well, and BetBlocker, self-exclusion list, kind of all the basic stuff. But once you sign up, and this is a full banking product, so you do have to go through KYC and we have to validate you, you know, you actually do have a fully FDIC insured

deposit account at a bank, right? So we have to jump through those hoops for money laundering. But then you can set limits on your card, you can set up a kind of transparent transaction. So if you want to send all the transactions for a week to your friend or a spouse, I don't know how many people want to send it to the spouse, but again, up to you. And then also when you take out money, we actually do a real time check on your bank balance as well. We don't store any of this information, but you have to have four times the amount of cash versus what we're extending out to you. So, again, that mitigates risk for us.

But we also want basically people to have cheap capital access, but we also don't want anyone to kind of get in over their heads. Right. So we have that. And also you start with a collateral holds on your car at fifty dollars that can scale up to two hundred or twenty five hundred. But if you want to take out that full amount where you have to have 10,000 in cash available in your bank account, so the idea here is just like, you know, on Robin hood, right? If you, um, want to get to kind of, uh, uh, get leverage on the stock buy. It's like when you just feel confident or thing is it's cheap capital.

If you win, you keep all the winnings, right? That's just free money for you. And the downside risk is there's no interest and you have four weeks. So you have two paychecks to pay us back. Yeah, no, that's, uh, I think that's such a good fit with our audience specifically. And a lot of things that we talk about in here is just, you know, we talk about betting on credit, uh, you know, the, how that can work and how that's advantageous in certain aspects when betting.

And I think that that's important. You're now bringing that into like a legal sportsbook aspect, I think is a massive game changer just for the industry as a whole, especially, you know, from a completely legal product. But otherwise I would say, I would ask the question,

like which type of bettors do you think that this is designed for specifically? Because it seems like, you know, I think most of our audience is like intermediate, advanced, rec, rec plus bettors. And I feel like that's exactly what this product is designed for.

A hundred percent. I mean, that's why we called you guys. I I mean I think this is a great fit in terms of audience and you know that our you know our business model is not going after some crazy whales you know who need 50 100 grand or something like that um so yeah it's again it's kind of that the average better that we're seeing in America you know kind of in that you know intermediate range it's about maybe three six hundred seven hundred a month you know per know kind of in that you know intermediate range it's about maybe three six hundred seven hundred a month you know per user kind of during like their favorite sporting season obviously the nfl kind of you know boost those stats a little bit um so that's i think where

we're a great fit you know that i've we have some investors who like who cares about an extra thousand bucks i was like well you know you're a little bit richer than the average guy right you know that's absolutely and one thing you you brought up a couple minutes ago here was kind of the signup process specifically. I would compare it similar to like sign up for a sports book. So, you know, I think we talked about a lot of terms there, but I would say it's pretty similar to that. Obviously maybe a little bit more sophisticated in terms of the checks about what's going on in terms of the bank, but otherwise I think it's similar. It's pretty straightforward. And actually I think that think that you know as we're kind of doing our user

testing and everything on the ux if this was a normal consumer product man we'd be dead in the water you know you have to ask a lot of questions but to your point i think people are very used to this right in the betting world there are a lot of regulations so we have you know we're not regulated as a gaming company but we have all the banking regulations you know, we're not regulated as a gaming company, but we have all the banking regulations, you know, that we need to adhere to. So it's just a name, date, a date of birth, address. And then we do ask for social security, but we don't store any of that. So all of this is encrypted. It gets sent to a company called Alloy, which within two minutes can fully verify you as a user. We also check you against, you know, politically exposed people and office support asset controls.

Make sure you're not an oligarch, right? So anyways, we do all that, but that's pretty straightforward. Once you've kind of been approved, you then need to link a bank account so you can move money into the deposit account. That's all goes in via Plaid. It's super easy. Just type in Chase. Again, we don't store any of this information.

And then you need to link up a credit or debit card. So that's for the repayments. And also we do collateral holds. The collateral hold starts at 100% for tier one, just so we can weed out some of the spam accounts. Tier two, it drops to 50%. And after that, we always hold one installment is collateral, but it drops down pretty quickly.

Yeah, definitely. And so when I was thinking about this product and one thing that I asked you specifically was, you know, no interest, no fees. It almost seems like too good to be true in a sense. And so that was like my biggest question when we first met was, you know, how do you guys make money? You're like, what's the business model? You don't have to tell us specifically, but it's just, yeah, I know. Actually, this is something that I want to actually be dive little bit deeper into because I want this to be very clear. No more buy now, pay later. I mean, they have egregious late fees, right? Same as payday loans.

I think afterpay makes like 267% APR or something when you mix in all these late fees. And then obviously there's just normal interest, right? Normal interest actually compounds on a credit card and that that's where, you know, people can get out of hand pretty quickly. So for us, you know, also we had to be regulated, you know, we didn't want to be regulated as a lender. So, again, we have no financing fees. We actually even pay for the ACH fees, you know, the 10 cents here and there. So there's not a penny that you ever lose so that, you know, we don't trigger some of these regulations. But the main way that we make money is uh it's what's called interchange fees so every time you use your visa card uh the merchant so the

sportsbook has to pay a fee that fee goes to visa then it goes to our bank and then basically you know we get a percentage of those transaction fees so that fee you know ends up being you know close to two percent per transaction uh but again that's basically being paid by the book not the user so what you end up with is if you know if you see the user gives me a hundred dollars then i have a hundred bucks right there's not two hundred dollars on that card and we get two percent on the full two hundred dollars when you move so we're actually making four percent per transaction uh and then at minimum right our full um our advances are only four weeks that means at minimum, right, our full, our advances are only four weeks. That means at minimum, we can

cycle our money about 12 times a year. So four times 12, we're actually making 48% return on capital a year, which is, you know, a pretty solid business model. And we can do all of this without having to gouge our users. Love that. Yeah, I think that's probably the biggest point there is people always wondering, like, well, free money, you know, it sounds too good to be true. But, you know, kind of after I heard that bit, you know, from you and kind of explaining more in depth, it just makes so much more sense about how this is actually such a viable option for people looking to bet, you know, with a little bit of a waiting list right now so people should probably get in asap so that way they're good to go for you know maybe later in the summer but definitely good to go by football season right yeah 100 i mean so it's kind of like

a first now uh first come first served you know model right now uh so you know we're working with our bank we kind of have to we do batches of uh account releases if you were to sign up today you would probably get an account around in July. But then what we're doing is we have, it's kind of this two months where we kind of, have to turn on batches, but by kind of end of August heading into the NFL season, we'll be able to turn on about 20 or 30,000 users,

kind of get psyched for that. But yeah, we've had a lot of demand right now. So actually our wait list is already about a month long. Uh, so yeah, uh, come on by sign up and, uh, yeah,

get in line. Absolutely love it. Sunny. Uh, you know, I appreciate you taking the time to come on here because I'm personally very excited. I know that our users will be as well.

Um, yeah. So you, if you guys want to sign up now, you can find the link in the bio, find it in the description of the podcast, depending on where you're listening to this, but you know,

appreciate you guys all listening and Sunny, uh, will talk soon thank you so much this is a perfect format for this and uh a great way to kind of dig in so thank you so much connor appreciate it you you