Move The Line - Re-Evaluating 2023 NFL Draft Best Bets AFTER Free Agency

Episode Date: March 16, 2023

Connor, Ryan & Scott breaks down how NFL betting lines for the NFL Draft may have shifted now that 2023 NFL free agency is behind us. Talking about their 2023 NFL Draft Best Bets, Carolina Panthers draft odds, and more! Plus a focus on how betting markets such as the first defensive player taken have shifted with guest Mike Luchene of NFL Rough Draft.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro5:03 Inside The Mind Of An NFL Draft Expert8:39 Reaction to Bears Trading 1.01 Pick13:02 What’s Up With Bryce Young16:46 Will The Panthers Trade Down?19:33 How Does Will Levis Fit Into The 1.01 Discussion?21:37 What Are The Bears Going To Do at 1.09?29:43 Jalen Carter Outlook32:55 First Defensive Player Drafted Betting Market39:53 Free Agents That Shifted NFL Draft Betting Markets41:43 Joey Porter Jr. To The Steelers?44:05 Where Is Bijan Robinson Going To Be Drafted?50:01 What Are The Raiders’ Draft Plans?56:47 How Many Tight Ends Will Be Drafted In Round 1?58:33 Under-The-Rader Potential First-Rounders1:01:30 How Mock Drafts Were Impacted By Free Agency1:05:14 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansDeposit $15 With Promo Code 4FOR4 On Vivid Picks To Get A 3-Month 4for4 Subscription 👉🏼https://4for4.co/3ZScKvsFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Scott on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/scottsmithffFollow Mike on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/roughdraftmikeVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaRead Scott’s Mock Draft 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3IuTxbsRead Connor's Mock Draft 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3JvZwP5 

you well the bears and the panthers waited for us to finish last week's show before making a deal for the top spot in april's draft the market reacted very quickly but is that information or speculation plus a slew of free agent signings have come out over the past 48 hours or so safe to assume that a few of those will impact the market and the first round of the draft we will get to that and more on this week's move line cue the music, Connor. Hello and welcome to Move the Line. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here, as always, in this spot to talk NFL draft betting by Connor Allen and Scott Smith.

But we have a guest for you today. It is probably one of the best in the business. Really excited to get the co-creator of NFLRoughDraft.com. He is the three-time champion in terms of accuracy on mock drafts over at the Huller Report, which is one of the best in the business in terms of getting the top quality mock drafters in the space. It is Mike Lucene. Mike, welcome to the show. Thanks for joining us. Hey, thank you for having me. I'm looking forward to talking about the draft and I'm glad it's that time of the year again.

Cannot wait. Mike is his hands. You can't see it. He has dirt up to his elbows. He is in the weeds on undrafted free agents, guys that you definitely aren't going to hear about, probably will be selling insurance in a couple of years. But Mike knows their chances to make an NFL roster or to make a practice squad. He is like ready to go for us today. We probably won't get to those guys, but kick it back to you, Connor. A lot of market movement. We talked about how free agency was going to shape some stuff,

and we'll get to that here. How are we doing? Good. I mean, for those of you who listened to our last show, I mean, we recorded that about two hours before the Panthers traded up to the number one overall pick. And so that was an unfortunate timing, but Scott left us with an absolute bomb saying,

I think the Panthers are going to trade up to number one. That happened right after. So for those of you who still listen to the show, there's still plenty of other good nuggets, but obviously the conversation along the number one that happened right after. So for those of you who still listen to the show, there's still plenty of other good nuggets, but obviously the conversation along the number one overall pick lasted a little bit too long for, you know, draft pods normally do. Scott with the receipts. How are we doing today, buddy? Doing good, man. I'm pumped up about this episode.

You know, I've corresponded with Mike over the years, and he is one of the top guys as far as evaluation and putting players together. And I use some of his work as a big part of my process, putting out my final mock. And last week we were a little bit early on the trigger. We talked about there maybe being a 24-hour window to get on Stroud in between some of the pro days that were going on.

But the Panthers went ahead and pulled that trigger early, and we're sitting there with Stroud as the new favorite coming out the gate to be the top overall pick. Yeah, talked about free agency shaping that as well we've had obviously a ton of information that's come and i think we'll talk about how those things have been impacted here we haven't really had a lot of markets emerge since we last met too which is interesting but you know i think part of that is also just us chomping at the bit to get you know into it and maybe the books want to get a little bit knowing that they're probably going to take a bath uh they

probably want to get a little bit more of that free agent stuff out there in the space as well so before we jump into any of the news or anything like that i want to remind folks that um all the official plays that connor scott and i are going to be pushing through are available for our subscribers at four for four you go to 444.com slash plans. Get a betting subscription. Takes you through this time, basically, the end of February next year, all the way through the Super Bowl. Gets you access to every sport that we cover. Scott is grinding the MMA streets and crushing their MMA college hoops.

Obviously, we are on the eve of the March Madness and NCAA tournament. By the time you're watching this, things are up and running. Doesn't mean it's too late to get involved. Connor has been grinding that pretty hard over the last couple of weeks with conference attorneys, stuff like that, continuing to make sure that we are ready to go. And that's where all the official plays on the draft are pushed through our subscriber discord as well.

So 444.com slash plans gets you everything on the site. If you're doing best ball drafts, season long DFS, whatever it is, that's how you want to get it. We've also partnered with Vivid, Vivid Picks. I mentioned last week, you probably know Vivid Seats, you know, a secondary market to go out there and get your, you know, last minute seats for concerts and sporting events. They also have a pick'em game.

You could partner with them. $15, new depositors, use promo code 444BETS, and you get a three-month betting subscription to 444. So it's going to get you all the NFL stuff. It'll probably take you up until the start of NFL or NBA draft as well, which is pretty cool. We slayed that market as well. So definitely a great way to kind of dip your toes into what we have

and offer before really jumping in for the full slate for the football season So I definitely want you to check that out. Now let's get into it. Mike, I really want to get an understanding of your process. Cause again, like you've probably been ready for the top prospects since January, if not before that. But talk to us a little bit about your process. Obviously you have had a slew of success here in the last handful of years. How does it come to be that? And how do you attack the betting markets in it as well? Yeah. Well, so the site is me and my buddy, Ray Mencio. And the two of us, it's kind of crazy how it happened. We've been doing this for so long that when it comes to the NFL draft we kind of have the same mind at this point um and we just cross-check each other's work so we really ramp up right before the all-star games after the college season ends um and you know that's when we're you know focusing on the top 150 players or so um who are in any given draft class. And now we take the time that we're in now is just, you know,

basically checking things like medicals and bizarre situations that pop up with the top guys. And we're really focused on, as you mentioned earlier, the next 150 to 200 or 250 prospects that they they'll close out the draft you know the the day three and undrafted priority free agents um but it is a lot of work and it's funny because we probably only publish about i don't know a thousandth of the amount of work that we do on our website but it's a lot of fun um you know to go and compete against you know some of the big writers of course rick goslin was like the godfather of top 100 boards that that guy was amazing but you know bob mcginn you know the legendary packers writer is always up there and then um you know we even have you

know scott over here is is terrific at mock drafts i don't know how he does it you know i've been submitting my mock draft every year for for the last 15 years and i think he's beaten me every single year so uh yeah it's just a lot of work and it's also a lot of fun um but yeah we just got it right at this point we're just basically dotting the i's and crossing the t's that's why scott's here he's pretty damn good at what he does. So not an accident. So yeah, so let's jump into it, right? We talked and still a lot of speculation. Again, like I said this last time,

I don't want to be a wet blanket. Very excited. We love this time of year. Connor and I have been doing this together for six years now. We love firing at the NFL draft. It is definitely my favorite betting event. I know speaking, I could speak confidently for Connor here. It's his as well. Information markets are

totally different than, you know, betting size totals, player props. Like you can have fantastic projections. I could feel really good about Nick Bolton over eight and a half tackles, but he's still got to blow out and play the game, right? This is a very different beast where this is, you know, information. And if you stay plugged in to relevant mockers like Mike, like Scott, and then, you know, have some occasional plugged in sources that have the ability to take that a next step further, you know,

we do have the answers to the tests for a handful of these first round picks and, you know, we're thirsty for markets right now. They will be coming uh so yeah right now i feel like firing at almost anything is speculation um doesn't mean you shouldn't do it or you can't do it and just we're going to continue to hopefully get you ready so that when you know we feel like it's okay to turn on the hose uh we're going to be ready to do it so uh connor i'm going to kick it to you bears made the move that we all thought they would make. The Panthers had been rumored.

Obviously, Scott solidified that last week. What are your thoughts on the Bears' haul? Was it more or less than you expected? And then kind of kick off, what do you think the Panthers are going to do? Yeah, it's about right. So they got two first-round picks, essentially, plus DJ Moore, plus two second-round picks. And so if we look at that kind of overall hall, they had the option actually of getting a third first round

pick or DJ Moore. And, uh, you know, from what we understand, they prefer DJ Moore and some people might think that that's a little bit crazy. I think that actually makes sense given the current free agent market, given what wide receivers are out there kind of looking at like they needed to make a splash for a true number one wide receiver. I don't think in this draft, I mean, maybe some of the guys you could can turn into number one wide receivers, but there's not like a guy who's a lock to go top 10. There's no Jamar chase. There's not a guy where you're looking at like, okay, he can step in and be a true number one right away. I think DJ more can be that guy for them. So I think it was a really good trade for the bears all around Panthers. Again, we talked about this in the

last episode. There are two teams that are the most desperate teams right now in sports to trade up and get a quarterback or get a quarterback in general. It's the Carolina Panthers and the Indianapolis Colts, I think, are the other one. And so I'm not sure whether they'll trade up, but they just that this rotation of veterans that they've had going on for a while now has not worked out for them. So we saw that happen with the Panthers here. And personally, just looking at the number one pick right now, CJ Stroud reopened as a favorite minus one 15, as soon as the trade happened or like 10 minutes after he's not, he got all the way up to minus 400 at one point now down to minus two 20 on FanDuel as the lowest point. Honestly, I think that you could see the odds continue to come down a little bit. There has been like a, an uncomfortable buzz, I would say about Anthony

Richardson and them trading up to hit that, that home run swing. And it's not just some guy saying it. It's Daniel Jeremiah. It's big name media analysts who are saying, I think that this could happen. And so personally, I would never take Anthony Richardson number one. But again, I'm not the one making the decision here. So I played a pretty big hand on CJ Stroud, you know, minus one 10, minus one 20, all the way up to minus 200. Today, I did take a small chunk of Anthony Richardson plus 400 to kind of cover my, my basis there at number one, because it is, it's an uncomfortable buzz right now for me, given what I'm holding with CJ Stroud to be number one. I like it. Scott, talk to me about your reaction to that and then how you think the Bears and Panthers trade kind of falls through. And then I want to get Mike's reaction on the

fact that we're talking about everyone except Bryce Young, who seemed to be the shoe-in quarterback to be number one just probably a week or so ago. Yeah, we talked about it last week. And look, we hit on a little bit early. They could have gave us a little bit of heads up and maybe we could have recorded a couple hours later. uh i i think it's a good haul and i think the dj more aspect of it is is kind of the the key piece in there i think he's a player that is going to provide immediate help in the development that they're they're looking looking for there um you know he adds to offense, kind of rounds out that receiving core with Darnell Moody and Chase Claypool.

I think there's a lot you can do with that offense now. And then with that ninth pick, there's some other things that they can do as well, and it gives them a little bit of flexibility of how they want to attack the draft and go ahead and look at things. The interesting part of it, the fallout from it, with the mock drafts that I've tracked since the trade went through, 64% of the mock drafts have CJ Stroud as the top overall pick. We started talking a little bit about the uncomfortableness of Anthony Richardson lying there.

Connor got him at plus 400. I'm looking at our app, and he's looking at a plus 350 right there for Anthony Richardson. And I think there's a case for that uneasy feeling, especially since the Carolina Panthers went ahead and signed Andy Dalton. You know, Andy Dalton has a bridge quarterback written all over him. He's a guy that could be a stop gap if they want to go ahead and make Richardson that top overall pick. So I think there's a little bit of discomfort there. If you're holding heavy tickets on Stroud, I got in on Stroud early when I didn't think he was going to be the top overall pick, but he had a plus 240 on him. I'm

pretty comfortable with some of the holdings I had when they initially came out with the odds for number one overall pick. He's a heavy on favorite now. I think there is some discomfort for Anthony Richardson and some of the buzz that you're getting there, especially with this Dalton signing. Bryce Young,

what happened? First of all, I think Bryce Young is still in the mix. I personally, I can see the case for Richardson. I think that's a lot to give up. Just looking at it from that regime, okay, they're new. They have a couple of years of leeway. But Richardson might not be good until his third or fourth year i mean he's really raw that's a lot to give up to get all the way up there and get him so i think he could

be in play he certainly got a very high ceiling and that's what it's all about for quarterbacks um i i also think that there's a chance that they might have signed more mobile uh sort of bridge quarterback than andy dalton if they were thinking richardson so you know again i wouldn't certainly would not surprise me if they took richardson but i personally think it's between uh young and stroud right now and i think really what that comes down to is just stroud is a little bit bigger or a lot bigger um and with bryce young you know of course on twitter everybody's looking at that photo of him standing next to kyler murray and kyler murray makes him look you know or bryce young makes tyler murray look like he's you know josh allen basically um but there certainly are durability concerns with with bryce young because he is so small. He probably played last year at about 185,

which is unheard of and unprecedented for quarterbacks. And fans out there have heard it because this comes up every now and then from year to year. They say, oh, durability. It's not like he plays a position where he's running into people every play as a quarterback. There are all these rules designed to protect quarterbacks. But if you go back and look at some of the other quarterbacks

that come into the league with durability concerns, it really has become an issue for them. Like, you know, obviously Tua Tungabaiola had durability concerns coming in. He had the injury, you know, in Alabama right as he was entering the draft. Teddy Bridgewater is going back. But if you remember, a lot of people around this time and Teddy Bridgewater's year, I think that was 2014, they were thinking Teddy Bridgewater might be, you know,

the first quarterback picked in that draft. And everybody said, well, yeah, he fell because of durability concerns. And in April, that seemed extreme. Oh, he fell all the way just because of durability concerns. And in April, that seemed extreme. Oh, he fell all the way just because of that. Teddy Bridgewater is hurt stepping off the bus. You know, even Deshaun Watson had durability concerns when he was in the draft. And he tore his ACL in practice his first year. So it's a big deal.

I mean, injuries are a part of the game. But you really need to depend on your starting quarterback playing when, you know, after his rookie deal, he's making 40, $45 million a year. So I think that it's still between young and Stroud personally, but yeah, I think that the reason Stroud has probably overtaken him as the favorite is just because people are worried about whether or not Young is going to hold up long term. Yeah. And I think something worth talking, a couple of things we're talking about here as well. So I think, you know, both Ryan and I heard from multiple people that they were trading up

for CJ Stroud. So that was, you know, an encouraging sign. But David Tepper is an absolute madman. He's, you know, a hedge fund background, just a total wild card, has already made moves in the past during his tenure that haven't really been talked about that much, but have basically been flying out to see a coach or some guy and signing him before talking to anyone else. Just does not care about anyone else and is just going to do his own thing. And so that type of volatility, it scares me a little bit when you're considering these prospects

and you're signing a guy like Andy Dalton. But I will say one rumor that I would love to get your thoughts on Scott here, because we're looking at people talking about the Panthers now potentially trading down. To me, I think that is the biggest load of shit I've ever heard. But I'm open to other opinions here because people are like, oh, well, they can recoup draft capital or redo this. Why would they trade up to number one if they're just going to trade down? It just doesn't make sense. And the only viable trade partner is the Texans at two. And why would they bet against themselves half the time? They thought they were between Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. Why would they bet against themselves? So do you have a contrarian opinion

here or are you in line with me, Scott? No, I'm completely in line for multiple reasons. I just look at it, and I think it's a bunch of smoke. And if that was the case, why would Houston wait if they were that interested in moving up? Why would Houston wait until after Carolina made the move that they did? Because they're going to have to give up more than what Carolina did to move up into that spot, in a sense. I mean, Carolina did move up from 9 to 1, and they would only be moving up from two to one, but I think Carolina, it just doesn't make sense. And if with the, with the heavy rumors out there that it is Stroud, why would, would Carolina move out from the number one pick where they have their choice of who they want to move down to number two? Because the only

reason that Houston would be moving up is to get their player, which would be Stroud. So logically, it just makes no sense for, for what you would do from a strategical standpoint, if you were a GM and less, and I, this is, you know, far down the road and less Carolina just decided to go ahead and punt to

next year and, you know, get into, you know, to some of that, but you know, that that's a long ways away. I don't see this happening.

I think Carolina is absolutely staying at the top overall pick. I agree. I mean, I think it's, I think it's okay. And I think there are some people that were like, you don't trade up unless you have a clear idea who you're taking at one. And I don't necessarily buy that either. Like, I think it's, it's okay. To just be like, Hey, we've identified enough to know that we want to have control of the situation to select our guy, whoever that is.

So if they narrow it down to two or three guys, that's okay. Get up there, make your pick, go through the selections, bring him in. You're able to kind of control things there. I don't think that that has to be, you know, ironed out for sure. So the interesting thing to me here in this market, as it currently stands is this is what happens the last couple of years. This happened even again, I'll reference the NBA draft or the NBA draft a couple of months ago was a clear three man race. But then you looked at the betting markets and it was a two man race. Ended up being the guy that was the third man in the race.

What ended up going number one and Paulo Banker, if you happen to be an NBA fan or drafter. So it seems really clear. A lot of smart people a lot of smart mockers are having all four of these quarterbacks go inside the top five and inside the top seven enough there's enough love in this scenario for will levis who apparently david tepper at one point loves is on tape uh loving will levis so interesting to note but now will levis is 45 to 1 basically telling you that he is not in play whatsoever so not only is bryce young a forgotten man

comparatively because i think the anthony richardson smoke is is probably real to connor's point like there's enough signal there that there's there's probably enough dialogue going on in carolina uh will levis at 45 feels insanely off market. Now again, it's speculation. You're firing into a complete unknown, but I still feel like we're firing into a little bit of a complete unknown if we were to fire at Anthony Richardson or Bryce Young at this point. So again, I'm not suggesting anyone bets Will Levis, but if he's so good that he's a really clear top five, top seven pick, I think he should be still in play until we hear he's not at number one. So again, this is kind of what happens. This is like a match in a forest, right?

So the books are very, very, very sensitive right now. We get this trade. Boom, we got the underdog video of Josh McCown raving about CJ Stroud. Like that starts to get smoke. All of a sudden that comes back up minus 110. They start to get hit. They panic and they move it to minus 150, minus 200.

All of a sudden the aggregators out there on Twitter tell you that it's moved from plus 300 to minus 200. Everyone's got FOMO. They want to get on a minus 200 before it gets to minus 300. So like nothing really happens other than just market steam in a very hungry, thirsty information market with really no information. So all my takeaway is, and that is don't bet CJ Stroud right now at minus 260 and minus 220. If you jumped in earlier, I jumped in in the middle of that steam as well. I feel okay with where I got in, but I'm not chasing where it is now.

We're going to get more information. I just think the plus money guys are more interesting right now because we still don't know anything that we knew pre-trade. So we'll shift to the Bears, Mike, and I'd love to get your thoughts on the Bears at nine. I love the haul for the Bears. I don't love what they've done in free agency in the last 48 hours. We'll save that for a different show. But I really like how they position themselves to add talent into the building, putting themselves at nine, knowing that they didn't have to get into the market at quarterback. Still being able to trade to a spot where they can add a top tier talent.

What are your thoughts on the Bears at nine and what they got in the hall here in the trade? Yeah. So I thought it was a pretty even trade. You know, we've talked about the Panthers just to wrap up, you know, what you guys were saying with the Panthers, you have to have a quarterback in the NFL. You have to have an elite one. So, you know, you have to give up whatever it takes and if Stroud or Young or whoever they

pick ends up being a franchise quarterback, it's going to be a good trade for them. However, I do like the Bears Hall a lot. And I'm really big on not usually being too high on the value of current players after they're done with their rookie deals. I think it's something that a lot of fans don't really understand in the NFL. I think, you know, like yesterday you saw Darren Waller get traded. People say, well, Darren Waller got traded for the 100th pick in the draft. He's better than the 100th pick in the draft. Well, yeah, he is, but he's 31 and he's signed to a deal where he's making over $10 million a year for the next four years.

So that's value. It's not just Waller for the 100th pick. It's, you know, Waller for the next four years so that's value it's not just waller for the hundredth pick it's you know um waller for the hundredth pick and 10 million over 10 million dollars in cap space to go sign someone else that said i really really like the dj more um acquisition by the bears because although he's not on his rookie deal, he was very young when he entered the draft. I think he's only like 25, 26 right now. And his deals for the next three years, I think he's about $20 million this year, which

sounds like a lot, but he's a top plate receiver. That's really not too bad. And then his cap number comes down to 16 for the next two years. Now that third year, I don't, I don't even think there's any dead money on that deal. You know, if something extreme happens, they don't even have to worry about it. So DJ Moore is a terrific contract, even though he's passed his rookie deal. And, of course, getting all those other picks in return makes it worth it for them, too, as long as Fields is the answer. I think at nine, now, I also always, always contend that if you think you have your quarterback, then you need to take the best player available and forget about we happen to need this position at this current point in time.

Because a few years later, when you look back at who was picked in that spot, you're not going to say, oh, well, they picked a pro bowler, but they really needed an offensive tackle. But I think the ninth spot matches up really well with their needs. So they need to fix their offensive line, and they need to fix their offensive line and they need to fix their defensive line uh it at nine there's a chance they could have their choice of of the offensive lineman I think skaransky is probably a guard his his arms are you know under 32 and a half inches usually teams are looking for at least 33 ideally 34 or or above um and I I think that puts Broderick Jones um into that mix for them um of course Paris Johnson as well I think those three

guys would be who you'd be looking at if uh you're looking for an offensive lineman there and then on the defensive line you know Jalen Carter could potentially be there. We'll see what happens in, I think, about a week before the draft. We should be getting some more information about that. And if it's not great information or if it's sort of still an ambiguous situation like it is right now, there's a possibility he could fall to them. And even if he doesn't, you know, you've got some really good edge rushers in this draft.

Will Anderson will be gone, but, you know, you've got Luke Spann-Ness, who could probably be an inside-outside type defensive lineman, kick inside on third downs. And, you know, Tyree Wilson is basically a Chandler Jones clone. So any of those guys would be, I think, terrific options for the Bears, and they might even have their choice between all but one or two of those guys. Connor, when you don't need a quarterback, you can draft best available.

Convenient for the Bears, they need literally everything else. So maybe not a guard, right? They signed and gave Nate Davis Pro Bowl guard type money yesterday. Again, do a free agent show in the coming weeks. At the end of the day, it seems like they'd probably be more in line for a tackle than a guard. And some folks do seem to think that Skronsky coming out is going to at least maybe start as a guard, depending on the team. But you know, what are your thoughts on what the bears do here at nine, knowing that they can probably go anywhere?

Yeah, I was, I was told that they don't really like Skronsky for a lot of the reasons you talked about. And I think their moves in free agency reflect that a little bit. So I think they could go with, I don't know, maybe one of the other tackles. I mean, there's three or four that in that kind of that range, you know, Darnell Wright, Broderick Jones, Paris I don't know, maybe one of the other tackles. I mean, there's three or four in that kind of that range. You know, Darnell Wright, Broderick Jones, Paris Johnson. You know, I think all of those guys are certainly in play there. But I wanted to ask Mike one other quick question, because you brought up at the top here about now is the time you start diving into medicals.

A guy who's been flying and going up and down draft boards here, and a guy who, if his medicals don't come back great, he could follow the Bears or pass the bears at nine is tyree wilson who has two jones fractures in both of his feet like so my kind of like issue with this reporting about around this is that daniel jeremiah and other people were talking about him as the next trayvon walker like but this was already known right like joe the jones fractures were already known it's not a new thing um but and but that you know reporting, other people pumping up Tyree Wilson, like came after this.

Like it was like more recent. So like, do you think that's already factoring that in? Do you think he's like going to go top five? I mean, like, where are you at with his medicals? Or have you heard anything about that? Like, is it a worry at all in the league? Yeah, I think that's definitely a worry. You have to be really careful drafting a player with medical issues, you know, in the top 10. And, you know, we saw that a number of years back. Remember Dean Milner? Up until he was a cornerback out of Alabama. Sorry, I keep referencing guys from like 12 years ago.

I'm old, Mike, so you can do it. I can ride with you. Connor, you know, Connor's a young pup you might not know them all well that year during the process up until maybe the second week of april everybody had him in the top five everyone and then it came out that you know he had medical issues and he fell pretty far um but the the combine rechecks i believe they're like the first week of april um so that's when we should probably start to hear a little bit more information about what's going on there and the medicals are always so tough you know ray and i are usually digging through some of the you wouldn't even believe we're putting our top 100 board together and you know we're looking at the likelihood of blood clots and lungs coming back for trace smith and spinal stenosis and if you could play for more than three years the linebacker from penn state last year so brandon smith i think um ended up being a day

three pick but he was another guy who was like an early second round pick until we got to april and got more information so yeah i i um you know this point, everything's still sort of written in pencil, as you guys were talking about with the odds for the first overall pick. I'd wait till we get a little bit closer on Wilson. Yeah, it's interesting. Obviously, a lot of news here with Jalen Carter here today, specifically as we record on Wednesday. Look, I don't know that there's any way to cut it. It looks like a pretty poor showing at the pro day, gassed, unable to make it through, drills, some, again, nine-second video clips that I always think you take with a grain of salt.

The guy looked like he's not going full speed. But you can make the case that this is his job interview. The biggest job interview his entire life. He's got to show up for that in a major, major way. And it seems like pretty clearly that he did not. Obviously, we know the off the field stuff. Looks like we talked about last week, their misdemeanors currently. Again, we're talking about this in the context of betting on the NFL draft.

So I don't mean to sound, I'm taking light of lost lives and all that happened there, for sure. We've got to move forward in terms of projecting where Jalen Carter is going to get drafted. And for that, I just think that there's a certain point where teams are going to get these guys in the building. They have one-on-one visits. And they're going to think that once they get a part of their culture and then coach them up and you know they get their you know positional coach in there feel like hey this kid's got talent to the max you know there's a reason i think that he opened as the first defensive player in the draft like minus 250 minus 300 in some spots like he was clearly you know a top viable non-quarterback in this draft and now you hear people reacting to the

pro day and like you can't even take him the first round now is he gonna sign to the mid-20s and i think that that's ludicrous but again like we have a lot of time to be able to tell and i you know as i've argued today with uh you know replies in twitter you'll be able to bet that if you think i'm crazy uh you'll be able to bet the other side of what my opinion is here. So, um, Connor, what's your initial reaction to Carter? Um, what's the floor again, knowing what we know now we're six weeks out. Um, we don't have, you know, pro days. We, you know, we don't have one-on-one visits. Um, you know, we don't have legal news. What do you think about Carter and where he ends up? Yeah. I mean, he was loafing it for sure. I mean, he could, you could tell like, if you watch like, you know, don't have legal news what do you think about carter and where he ends up yeah i mean he was loafing it for sure i mean you could you could tell like if you watch like you know again i'm not like a expert on you know guys diving through bags here but like you know

if you watch some of the other guys you know they were moving a lot faster you could see in his eyes like he was just kind of you know going through the motions there and i'm sure a lot of this stuff is getting to him and i do i worry about how you know, we've seen multiple things. So there was reports about character issues before this stuff came out and then this happened. And now you're talking about him gaining 10 pounds at his pro day and then loafing it. So like all of that on the surface is pretty bad. Uh, and so I think the bears would take him at nine if he fell there. So I, again, but I don't know, maybe, maybe he falls further, but I do think your point that they probably get him in the building and he's, I mean, he's very talented. You know, I mean, there are plenty of examples of athletes who don't need to be the hardest

working guy in the building to be a standout player in your team. So, you know, just because they're not a great character guy, like sure, maybe the lions won't draft them. You know what I mean? Like, but there are plenty of other teams who are willing to take players with far, far more concerning issues than a guy like Jalen Carter. So, Scott, any thoughts on this market, though, in general right now? Because right now we have Will Anderson. I mean, I don't want to lay this minus 250

right now at Caesars on anyone just because there's so much uncertainty. But when we kind of more look at it, Tyree Wilson has medical red flags. Jalen Carter has, I don't know, what do you want to call these flags, but a lot of them coming up. I mean, is this short on, you know, will Anderson be the first defensive player or what are we looking at here?

Look, I think when it comes to Jalen Carter in particular, because he's really the other competition for Will Anderson, I think he's done a lot to make his stock fall. In the sports industry, I deal with some professional athletes, and when it comes to drug testing, they say if you know the date of the drug test, it's not a drug test, it's an IQ test at that point. And that's kind of where it falls into with Jalen Carter right here

with being out of shape and in some of that. You look at a team like Philadelphia that's sitting there right after the Bears. And last year they drafted Jordan Davis, who everybody said was going to be a part-time player and kind of was for the first year. They put him in in spots, but it would be an interesting spot for Jalen Carter there, you know, with the team that has overlooked some things because it was said last year with Jordan Davis, they were wondering about his effort and him being in shape, but the talent they thought they could go ahead and deal with. And that's an interesting spot between nine and 10.

The other particular thing that we're talking about is who's going to be the top overall defensive player. And that's where I kind of want to hit with Mike, because if it's not Will Anderson, I think we start getting back into that defensive back conversation that we've been having over the last few weeks. You know, is it Christian Gonzalez? Is it Devin Witherspoon?

And I think those are kind of the other two guys that can kind of come into play, especially when we start talking about Tyree Wilson having some medical concerns. I think you do have to wait until you get some of those medicals, like kind of in that April standpoint. But I'm interested to get Mike's opinion on the conversation that we've been having. How do you feel about those two guys, Christian Gonzalez, who killed the combine and Devin Witherspoon, who, when you look at his tape, I mean, I mean, he's making some hits that you don't see a lot of cornerbacks making, you know, played a little bit underside.

I think he only weighed in at like 181 at the combine, but that's the big argument. And that's two players that play a little bit differently with Witherspoon being a lot more of a man person and then Christian Gonzalez being a little bit smoother of an athlete with the measurables. So I'm interested to see how Mike feels, if there is another defensive player that he would consider as the top one coming off the board and out of those two cornerbacks, which one he has ranked higher. Yeah, so I think the first defensive player is going to be will anderson unless something you know happens between now and april with you know with him specifically um just

real quick on carter before i get to the cornerbacks you know there's a little bit of precedent for this uh you know you had warren sapp who's supposed to be a top five pick fell a little bit um i don't remember exact 12 13 it was like somewhere between 10 and 15 where sap got you know obviously it worked out great for tampa bay you also had daryl russell um same type issues he didn't fall at all it was second pick in the draft and some of those issues kind of came back to hurt him unfortunately but you could make the case he had a you got a solid five-year career out of him um before that happened um as far as the cornerbacks i i've got gonzalez uh clear in a way that i had witherspoon personally at this

point i think the combine was really the difference i know witherspoon talked about the injury and then you know he didn't run at his pro day because he said he was still coming back from it. But I think you have to at least wonder if that's the truth. So you've got Gonzalez with the measurables. So just again, 32 inch arms. He's he's so he's got longer arms than, than Witherspoon who came in at 31 and a quarter. That's a big deal with defensive backs. You know, you see guys get pushed inside

when they're underneath 30. He's taller, he's bigger, and he's more athletic, even though he is a little bit more raw. But the 40-yard dash is just, for cornerbacks, it's still the one position where it matters. And so I just want to see Witherspoon run before I could even put him in the same conversation as Gonzalez. Right now, I've actually got Joey Porter Jr. as my second cornerback. And, you know, this is probably, it's probably crazy, but I've got Deontay Banks and Witherspoon pretty close. Now, if Witherspoon shows up, I think he's supposed to run April 6th, I believe,

somewhere in that first week of April. And he's running the 4-4s, then I'm fine with that. But if he runs, you know, mid-4-5s or 4-6s, we've just seen it time and time again where it doesn't work out for cornerbacks who can't run. So I personally think Gonzalez is going to be the higher pick, even though he played in the same quality of cornerback, both first-round picks, and Witherspoon obviously had a much more productive year. Yeah, I've been caping up for Witherspoon in a big way for, you know,

since this process started. I do think what's happened in the last, you know, 48 hours or so in the free agent market, I think has impacted that too. I think Connor did a great job last episode kind of laying out why Detroit made a lot of sense for Witherspoon, because they do tend to run a little bit man, whereas that was really what Witherspoon did in college, where Gonzalez does profile as more of your typical cover two zone on the outside. With the additions of Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Mosley, both additions to the Lions and free agency. Again, they still have Jeffrey Okuda. You can make the case that they still need depth

and they should probably still address the position somewhere. But we do know it's one of the deeper positions in the draft. So I think that probably takes them out of corner at six. Again, we don't know yet, but I feel like that that probably makes sense that they're not in position there. And then really that would be the argument for me with Witherspoon over Gonzalez

was that I think he's a better fit for the Lions who need the position. That doesn't feel to be the case since the last time we recorded. So I do think that the Gonzalez first cornerback number is probably pretty interesting. Now, again, I think we have time. It's probably not going to take a lot of action between now and then. We still need to see Witherspoon run. We saw Banks run at the combine. I think he made himself some money there,

got himself into the first round. We know Joey Porter Jr. is still in there. If there's another cornerback still to make it, I think those are the top four probably right now in terms of trying to project what that number will be because that's one of the favorite markets too is number of positional players in the first round as well. I think that's one of the bigger free agent impacts, Connor, in terms of what happened that impacts the first round as well. I think that's one of the bigger free agent impacts

Connor, in terms of what happened that impacts the first round. Was there anything else that stood out to you, whether that's either franchise tags or things that have kind of gone down here in the last 48 hours in terms of free agent signing that I think maybe shifts what we think were happening with first round picks? I mean, I think that was a major one and it kind of like leaves me scratching my head a little bit about like, what are the lions going to do? Because they need to beef up their defensive line a little bit, but like, I think they've kind of like pseudo solved their cornerback issue, you know, in some senses. So I would assume they look to defensive line, but again, with like how much volatility there is with Carter Tyree Wilson

coming in the couple of weeks here? Like, I don't know. I mean, it's, it's just like, for me, it's kind of up in the air of like, would they take another offensive lineman here? They probably wouldn't take a guard this early. You know what I mean? Like, it just doesn't really make sense. So I think the Lions would personally probably prefer to trade back. But you know, we'll see another tag that something that I think kind of happened pretty

early that we knew about further down the board was the chargers. Um, they were pretty, you know, commonly mocked a wide receiver early on, uh, but they kept Keenan Allen. Uh, and so, you know, I think they're in a good spot here where to just like not draft a wide receiver. I think they're in play for a tight end. Um, so I think that's a spot to look for, um, you know, potentially something else there, but I mean, another team that I think will take a wide receiver could be a team like the Ravens, where they don't necessarily have much at wide out and they hired Todd Munkin to run their system, who has run an air raid in the past,

who also came from Georgia where they ran plenty. I mean, he's not going to run an air raid right now. We don't know anything about Lamar. There's a lot of volatility with this situation, but if Lamar is not there, I mean, what are they going like you know who's going to play quarterback like they need wide receivers they just have like so few playmakers outside of rashad bateman mark andrews like they just need more there so i would say those are probably my top ones right now and one last note you brought up joey porter a guy that i personally like a lot to the steelers at 17 because he tested well he has

a connection with his dad who played there um you know like I think there's a kind of and they need corner like bad they also again they I believe they lost one or two of their corners in free agency so I think that amplified that need and then he's like a I think a perfect fit so I know the local to team stuff doesn't always work out here but it's one of those things where it's checking a lot of boxes right now in early stages I think Scott you pointed out last week that we'll know the Steelers pick. Like we just know, we always know the Steelers pick a couple of weeks out. It's not one that we need to be scratching our head at.

I think the Lions question is interesting. They did add a couple edge rushers last year, three edge rushers in last draft. I mean, obviously Aiden Hutchinson at the top, but James Houston came on late in the season, was very interesting. I think they're probably pretty excited about him. And also Josh Pascal, the kid from Kentucky, I think they, you know, was making his way and getting a little bit of steam into like early, you know, late first, early second last year. And I think landed in the middle of the second round. So, yeah, some of the things that's been interesting to me with this free agency was specifically some of these running back movements.

We're talking about Detroit and David Montgomery lands over there. You start looking at some of the other things. Rashad Penny lands at the 10 spot right there with Philadelphia. It really brings in some of these movements start to make me wonder, where does B. John Robinson fall? He's the guy I'm still trying to get my hands on as far as like just matching up a team need or one of these teams that are going to go ahead and take the chance with Rashad Penny going to Philadelphia and talking about Miles Sanders is going to be

out. We still have to find out where he lands. You know, David Montgomery leaving Chicago, or are they going to go ahead and go with Herbert? So there's some interesting moves out there. I did see him kind of linked with Detroit, but I just don't see that as a fit. He's the guy that I'm kind of looking at with some of these free agent moves and some of these guys and specifically the running backs to see where they land so that I can kind of go ahead and place. The other interesting thing is you're hearing that Derrick Henry

is on the market now, that he can be had. So is Tennessee another team? And so I'd kind of like to hear Mike's opinion as far as B. John Robinson and some of these running back moves that have been going. With the player that he is and the other running backs that are in his class, where does he see him going? What range do you see Mike, B. John Robinson going in the draft based upon the way things are falling so far?

Yeah, I mean, without getting too team specific, I think he's going to go a little bit higher than where a lot of people think. I see a lot of people putting him toward the end of the first round. I think he could go in that 10 to 15 range. Of course, you're looking at the Eagles at 10, even with Penny. It's a one-year deal. And, you know, that's sort15 range. Of course, you're looking at the Eagles at 10, even with Penny. It's a one-year deal. That's sort of similar to what you guys were talking about with the Lions before, too, with the cornerbacks. I know they signed Mosley, but he's coming off the ACL. That's a one-year deal. Will Harris

might play safety or corner, but that's a one-year deal, too. That sort of actually screams at me that they are going to draft a cornerback, just maybe not necessarily in the first round. With Robinson, though, I mean, obviously the Eagles make sense. The Titans make sense. You know, as you said, Scott, you know, we saw even with Derrick Henry, I know he was a second-round pick, but everybody was a little bit surprised when they took him

because they had DeMarco Murray. And, you know, they kind of saved a little bit of tread on the tires with Henry for his first few years. So that certainly makes a lot of sense. The one team I think I personally would cross out is Buffalo. I really think that they're going to look at one of those linebackers in the first round. This is a really weak linebacker class. And, you know, you've got Drew Sanders,

you've got Jack Campbell as sort of Tremaine Edmonds replacements. And if you don't take one of those guys, you're probably not getting anybody else to replace him. It's not a great year for third round linebackers at this point. So I know a lot of people have robinson in buffalo i personally don't see him there and i think he'll actually be gone before they pick we also got some breaking

news here during the show uh the saints just signed jamal williams to a uh deal so i think we can uh i mean with alvin kamara's looming suspension maybe not cross them off the board but uh you know i think that that's definitely something to consider if they're signing Jamal Williams. Like you said, the landing spots for Bijan Robinson is just becoming, I would say, I don't even know, tougher. Maybe are the Cowboys in play after letting go of Zeke? I mean, it would not surprise me one bit that if he's still on the board, you know, Jera's pounding the table again, like he did at pick four, picking, you know, Ezekiel Elliott over Jalen Ramsey, like we already saw, and him just going back and getting his new Ezekiel Elliott, B. John Robinson. Like, that would not surprise me at all. But to Mike's point, like, there's the constant buzz has been, this guy is a top five prospect in the draft, and he's going to go top 10 to top 15. But, like, I don't know who

that's going to be. You know, I just don't know which player or which team that is like Scott. So that's something I'm really struggling with. Um, I could see a team, but like team trading up, but like, can you really trade up for a running back? I don't know. That's in today's day and age. I mean, you might as well just not have a, an analytics department if you're going to do that. Um, so I don't know, like his over under is going to come out like Newton, where would you put his over under right now? I mean, like 15, I don't know. Is that too high?

Like 14 and a half? I don't know. I think someone, they're going to stick it in the middle and I would take the under because I think it's all going to feel uneasy. But to your point, like the nature of the position now, he's not going to go to any place that doesn't have a guy because everyone has multiple guys. So he's going to go to a spot that has someone already.

It's just how the position is. We've seen it in free 80. We see kind of just how the position has slowly been devalued. And, you know, rightfully so. I do think that there are outliers at any position. I think Saquon was an outlier at the time. Now, should he have gone where he did? I think obviously you can make an argument

that that was too early, but everyone seems to be like, hey, this Bijan Robinson is an outlier again, but no one wants to take the spot. The wild card, I wouldn't call it that we got word or rumor, but there was some discussion yesterday that there seems to be some interest out of Atlanta.

Atlanta's talked about wanting to add to the position. We've seen some quotes that they don't, they like Tyler Algier. They don't think that he necessarily can do it alone. We know that they like to run the football. Again, it takes very, very little to move a market nowadays. So if a couple of people try to bet the Falcons at the same time, it goes from 30 to one to 15 to one. As we saw yesterday,

pretty quickly find folks over at DraftKings. Let me get down 40 cents on that bet. So thank you very much, DraftKings. But like Atlanta, Connor and I were talking about earlier today, like Atlanta can do anything. They're kind of like the bears where they have a ton of needs.

They could go offensive line. They still need edge help. They need corner in a big big way i think they're in play for either witherspoon or gonzalez if they happen to fall but that wouldn't feel like a weird spot for bjohn robinson either so that would probably be where i could see them inside the top 10 landing because that does make a lot of sense but like theoretically he seems like a great cowboy i just feel like it's really tough to trade up for one but does someone let him fall all the way there as well that gets really tricky so yeah connor i mean to answer i think it's probably in the middle of the first round 14 and a half 15 and a half i probably lean under but i don't feel really confident in it and that's

probably why the books would just pop in the middle there as well what would you line it line it at? Yeah. So I'd probably line it around there, but I think the, something that you brought up here, when you go through the top 10, like I think the lions, I mean, they signed David Montgomery. They still have Deandre Swift, you know, like, I think that they are probably out on Bijan Robinson at six. I mean, I don't know, again, like they have every team has guys, but like given them then like spending 11 million guaranteed on David Montgomery and having Swift still, I don't really think that they're still in there in guys, but given them spending $11 million guaranteed on David Montgomery and having Swift still, I don't really think that they're in play. But a team that now I'm thinking about more, this guy got swept under the rug a little bit. So in contention to trade up to the number one overall pick was the Panthers, the Colts briefly,

but a team that was talked about a lot was the Raiders. The Raiders were talked about a good bit, and that kind of was swept under the rug because people were so excited about the Panthers trading up. Scott, I mean, what do you do with the Raiders at this point? We, I had them penciled in for an offensive line, but like, it seems like they're very interested in moving up to maybe three to take a quarterback. Maybe, I don't know, just standing Pat, if they're there, if the quarterback is there when the top four taking quarterback, any thoughts about this market and just what the Raiders do yeah when we talk about the Raiders uh the Jimmy Garoppolo sign and it's not a big contract especially when you look at what some of these other guys are getting so I think it's a it's a situation where they can definitely get out of it

and the weird thing with with the coach there is that he drafted Tim Tebow. So if he can fall in love with Tim Tebow, his first go around as a head coach, can he fall in love with Anthony Richardson the same way around from another quarterback from Florida? I think there could be a little bit of smoke there. They're going to be a team that can go ahead. But the other thing is,

is you start looking at some of the free agency moves. I've not been a fan of their free agency moves that they've really made, you know, here recently. And I just don't know what they're going to do there. And I think they are very much in play to move up. But then you start looking at where are they going to move up. And, you know, the Cardinals, you know,

three to get in front of the Colts right there. I think that's going to be the prime position because if a team wants a quarterback, they are not waiting, you know, to waiting around for Indianapolis to go ahead and make a move. So you could see another move come here in the next week or so with one of these teams. And especially if Houston had their eyes on Straub and they're not happy with Bryce Young, are they going to be willing to move down and punt till next season? Especially with the roster that they have to go ahead. They're a team that can definitely lose next year and end up back in this draft position and be in a run for one of those other two quarterbacks.

So I think you could possibly, if one of these teams like, you know, the Raiders are desperate and want in on some of this quarterback action, you know, with Garoppolo's injury history, I don't think you can depend on him for a full season. I can definitely see those guys being willing to move up. Right now, Will Levis has been mocked to the Raiders at a 75% clip in most mock drafts since the trades going down, which I think is very high. But are they going to wait at seven to to get them especially if you think three other quarterbacks are going to going off the board I don't think so so they're definitely a team I could also see moving up and I think that number three spot with the Cardinals would be the the point the Garoppolo deal was fantastically done by the Raiders I think like they can get out of it

and make it a fairly league average one-year deal for like 33 million guaranteed I think there's a roster bonus that kicks in I think it makes it from like 28 to 33 or like they're prepared to like have him for the two three years you know to bridge things out very well done by the raiders to make you know still put them in position to to compete a little bit while they figure out what they do in the position so um mike any other nuggets uh before we wrap up any of the things that you thought from free agency or anything in your work here that, you know, you can bullet point us, whatever you want to share with us. And now we'll go around the horn. I'll do with you, Scott, and you, Connor, as well. Yeah, well, I guess just to sort of talk about what you guys

were saying with the Raiders real quick, you know, I worry that they're in McDaniels and Ziegler and job preservation mode right now. I would have thought they would be looking at a quarterback as well. We've never had a draft where four quarterbacks have gone in the top seven overall picks. Certainly, it looks like that's a very strong possibility this year, but they've completely neglected

that defense through free agency. Robert Spillane, he just made starter money, but he's really a real quality backup inside linebacker, and they need help on the line. That's a spot where you could see Tyree Wilson. Again, I compared him to Chandler Jones. Chandler Jones, that's where he is, and he's, I think, going to be 34 next year. So they could use another edge rusher.

They could take Lucas Van Ness. You know, they could even take Kalijah Kansey at that spot. You know, of course, he's going to be compared to Aaron Donald. I don't know if he's going to quite be that good. But you could see him be a surprise top 10 pick, and that would be a spot for him. And then, of course course you know all those cornerbacks that we talked about are going to be in play at seven as well you know as that regime

potentially tries to win seven or eight games and so they can keep their jobs for another year um but no i know i think just in in general moving on you know in terms of putting guys in in specific spots um that's tough to do in march um but we're just going to continue to keep an eye on on the pro days and we'll continue to tweak our top 100 rankings which are actually like a top 350 rankings um up until april um and such a tough spot seven eight nine with the raiders the falcons and the bears because they're going to have optionality positional wise and they all need everything um so i think when you get into a spot like what scott's talking about looking at mocks we're seeing a 75 will levis to a team there's just so much yeah coffee and pace isn't the right

word there's just a lot of group think and mock drafts early in the season so uh yeah it feels more like noise i think it's okay to be open to that not being you know written in pen as mike has referenced earlier some of that stuff written in pencil i think makes sense having will levis go to the raiders makes sense they they need a long-term solution at the position. But there's just a lot that can happen between now and then. Scott, any other nuggets from you over the last week since we talked last or any takeaways from free agency or any maybe spots that you think that maybe make a little bit more sense to you in terms of mocking out the first round?

Look, I really want to get a little bit more time from Mike. I want two quick questions. We're good, man. I'm fine. Look, I adore the encyclopedia draft analysis he is when it comes to some of these players, and I think he's got some good nuggets to get into. But for me particularly, and this is where I kind of want to bring Mike in, who are one or two players that aren't necessarily being talked about there in that first round that you think would rise that could go ahead and make it into that first round that maybe aren't on everybody's radar?

And then, you know, to piggyback off of that question, last week we kind of talked about the tight end position with some of these tight ends. How many tight ends do you see going in the first round? Great questions. So I'll start with the tight end question. It's tough to take a tight end in the first round just because of the way rookie deals are structured with first round picks. It's really, really difficult to return value when you take a tight end in the first round because once you get to the second round, you're paying these guys about a million dollars a little bit under that and they're great values for four years but if you look at the the history of of first round tight ends they just you know they take three years to develop or longer and so you get a guy like noah fan who

is a perfectly fine tight end but he doesn't really have much value during that rookie deal when he's making you know a few million dollars million dollars. So, you know, I think Michael Mayer is certainly in that first round. And then there are a bunch of guys who are certainly deserving skill-wise. If you take the aspect of roster building out of it, you know, Musgraves got a chance. A lot of people like Dalton Kincaid. He could slide in there. I think Darnell Washington is more of a second round pick. I think, you know, the appeal with him, yeah, he's athletic and has some great upside as a receiver. But I think the appeal with him is really just that he's such an elite blocker that you're going to plug him in as one of the, it's

very rare to find an inline tight end block like him especially you know within the last 10 years or so so i think he's more of a second round pick but i i guess to answer that i think mayor will be a first round pick maybe we'll see one more but i think there's a higher likelihood that just because of the way rookie deals are structured, you see a run on those guys in the early second round. As far as players who maybe aren't talked about a lot, who could jump up into the first round, be surprise picks, I really like Jack Campbell. And again, you heard me mention earlier that this is a really poor linebacker class.

There aren't any linebackers i would take in the third round trenton simpson is a 4-3 will linebacker you know 3-4 he's an off the ball linebacker and that's fine but um aside from him you've got drew sanders and you've got jack campbell and that's it and if you're a 4-3 team that needs a Mike Backer, you need to get one of those guys. You're just not going to fill that need. You know, I mentioned the Bills earlier. They need to replace Edmonds. Well, there are their two options and they don't have any others. So I think Campbell's a guy who could possibly surprise Steve Avila, the guard. He's from TCU. He's had, he's very quietly had a very, a very strong pre-draft process. And he's the guy who could kind of speak into the back half of the,

the first round, you know, and I guess if you, if you want to, if I, if I'm going to throw one guy out there, that's like way off the board. Okay. Like like a new England Patriots, you know. Do it. I'm going to give you Darius Rush, okay, the quarterback who just absolutely was fantastic at the Senior Bowl. I think he had the fastest GPS time in practice, killed the weigh-ins, okay. He's got ideal measurables.

And then he just went to the combine and picked right up where he left off. So certainly I'm not saying he's going to go in the first round. And cornerback is such a stacked position that it's going to be difficult because you've got the four guys we talked about. You've got D.J. Turner. You've got Cam Smith. So there's six guys right there but that's just one sort of way off the radar guy who i i could see some teams

being higher on um than you know than the consensus i love it because we get like in the betting space we're gonna get over-unders on a bunch of these guys you know even as second round picks so like you know yeah they might not be first round guys but uh it's good information for the audience because if the guy pops up and there's an over-under play you know we can you know we have a little bit of info from mike there so uh absolutely love it i was leaning a little bit last week to do under two and a half tight ends in the first round because i don't think that washington is that guy uh scott and connor took the other side glad we can bring on a smart mind like mike to uh agree with me there so

good stuff feeling good about it uh scott now we maximize mike here i'm just gonna invite you back on later in the season we'll do it as we get a little bit closer so we can make sure we you know we can squeeze a little bit more juice out of the lemon but you know scott did you have any takeaways from free agency anything that's maybe shaped your you know rough draft mock board for round one yeah i think you start looking at some of these teams in the in the back half of the draft and and when you start talking about some of them you know you know we're talking about what's going to shape the top 10 and for me particularly when i'm looking at mock drafts look i'm trying to get seven to eight picks correct in the top ten

and trying to lean with another three to four in the back half of the draft. And I think we hit on the Chargers a little bit with what they're doing. But some of these other teams, you start looking at some of the trades that just went down and some of the players. We talked about tight ends, and you just saw Hayden Hurst get signed by Carolina. So the Bengals are going to be kind of leaning there. You just start looking at some of these teams and some of the team needs, and I think especially with the news that Connor just broke,

the Saints getting a running back that makes a lot of sense for what they're doing. I think you're going to see some movement here on the back half, and I think the picture for the back half of the draft is coming a little bit forward. And Deontay Banks, that's a guy that I'm looking at that is moving up a lot of draft boards, especially what he did at the combine. And you start pegging some of these players in. And look, we're still a little bit early on the market.

We haven't had a lot of our player props come. I expect this next week to kind of start opening up some of our betting chances for what we're going to look at. And a lot of this free agent movement is going to be able to give us a better view of the market and make things, the picture become more clear. So that's just kind of, I'm still a little bit in a waiting game here for some of this stuff. But I'm pretty pumped for this next week. And I think we're going to be able to get a lot more action going especially with a lot of these pro days going off the board the bangles losing both of their safeties to free agency makes brian branch pairing there feel pretty natural if he happens

to last again we know it's not a really deep safety draft um you know on the other side like mike talked about you know linebacker not very strong um i thought sanders to to the cowboys made a ton of sense he had like the you know arkansas jera tie um you know vander esch was a free agent they just brought him back so that makes yeah and just uh just to break another little bit of news while we're here miles sanders to the panthers there we go oh oh all right okay interesting so yeah they were moving on from foreman they still have chuba hubbard there There we go. Oh, all right. Interesting. So, yeah, they were moving on from Foreman. They still have Chuba Hubbard there.

So, you know, I'm sure he'll still be involved. And Miles Sanders will tease fantasy owners and managers again in front of their season. But it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. But, yeah, I mean, back half, I think it's really, really interesting and lots of different cases to make for different players. So it's really really interesting and lots of different uh different cases to make for different players so it's going to be uh it's going to be interesting i just want over unders i think over unders or something that i'm comfortable firing at before maybe positional number in the first round type of stuff because i think that gets a little bit more dicey but uh

yeah anyone get any other notes before we uh wrap it up the color show i do want to get any other notes before we wrap it up and call it a show i do want to add one last thing here that if the panthers draft anthony richardson and he starts like over half the season the bears will have the number one pick next year and then that's why i love the bears trade is because they position themselves in a spot where they got another year to decide if justin fields is the guy or not right so if he, your window is pretty tight. Anyway, you only got two more years, two more years left on the rookie deal. If he's not the guy and you're sitting in a really nice spot with a very nice prize at the top of the board next year in Caleb Williams.

So a great job by the bears and putting themselves in a spot, went ahead and spent all your phrase of money on guards and middle linebackers for some odd reason. But, you know, you need talent, and supposedly you got something to the building. So, again, to remind folks, 444.com slash plans. Get the betting sub. You get all the access, all the picks. Discord, I think, pays its weight for the entire season

over the next two months, to be honest. And then you get the entirety of the 2023 NFL season with us as well. Again, Scott's grinding MMA, betting picks there, college hoops, NBA, people throwing out hockey props in there. Very like-minded community, betting on anything that we possibly can get down on. Definitely worth your time. So check that out.

And again, get it for cheap, 15 bucks over at Vivid. Use promo code 444BETS. We check that out. And again, get it for cheap 15 bucks over at vivid use promo code four for four bets. Uh, and we appreciate that a lot. This is available on YouTube four for four bets, YouTube channel, subscribe, lots of unique content coming out over there. Also available in podcast form, wherever you consume podcasts, uh, thumbs up, uh, reviews, all those things, five stars, all the bells and whistles helps us a ton. So, uh, Mike, appreciate your time very much. You can check out NFL rough draft.com. We'll do our best to get Mike on again later in the draft season.

We'll tighten that up. So for Connor, Scott and Mike, I'm Ryan. We'll see you next time. Thanks everyone. you