Move The Line - Strength of Schedule Winners & Losers! | 2024 NFL Schedule Release

Episode Date: May 16, 2024

Get ready for the ultimate fantasy football playbook! Join us as we dissect the newly released 2024 NFL schedule and uncover the key matchups, bye weeks, and prime opportunities that will shape your fantasy season. From favorable matchups to potential pitfalls, we'll provide expert analysis to help you draft and manage your team like a pro. Don't miss out on the essential insights you need to dominate your league – subscribe now and level up your fantasy football game!Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU  #NFL #nflbetting #BettingGuide #BestBets #SportsBetting #Football

hello and welcome to move the line presented by four for four bets i'm ryan newton joints here as always by my friend connor allen we're going to talk a little bit of reaction here to the nfl schedule see how it turns out in terms of wins over unders divisional wins rest advantages absolutely brutal opening stretches finishing stretches all that and more here i know connor is uh in the lab doing lots of work right now trying to figure out how often team x is favored uh how often team y is not favored at all in any games what's going on connor yeah not much it's uh everyone was freaking out over the schedule release uh you know last night i went to joey molinaro the comedian show so i kind of a little smell the roses action uh there um but you know came back

got in the lab this morning been grinding it out i probably have a couple threads you know today tomorrow i've been compiling some of the player prop data as well from last season. Some of those were popular about unders hitting a bunch. But yeah, these look ahead lines are really interesting. I like going through, seeing how often a team is favored, how often they're not. Some certain scheduling quirks. It's not that indicative of what's going to happen. But if a team is not favored in a single game and you're sitting there week six,

why did I bet the over on this team at 4.5? 4.5 seems like nothing, but they're literally not going to win a single game and you're sitting there week six you know why did i bet the over on this team a four and a half four and a half seems like nothing but they're literally not going to win a single game because they're terrible so it's those every year we have a team on this show that we are like this team sucks and they're under over under is like five and a half or six and a half and we bet under and it still hits like by at least a game or two so hoping to find that team this year and i think we might have it yeah there's some out there for sure i think there's some interesting little schedule nuggets in terms of you know rest and and where that happens and travel and all those things one of the frustrating things again and um you know shout out to warren sharp sharp football is lots of good schedule based content

and i had a tweet that is absolutely infuriating around the just, can we just split the games up a little bit better? Why do we have to jam in? Like week two, we get 10 in the early window. 10 is a shit ton of games. Like 10. Can't fit the Octobox. Can't fit the Octobox. Yeah.

I mean, I got double TVs and you do the quad box. I can't get all the, like, I can't get all the games. It's so stupid. It's insane. And then three in the late window, you know, when you know one of them is going to be garbage. So then you get these just to,

to gain. It's just, it's terrible. Give us seven and four, six and four, uh, some other unique quirks to Connor, probably more relevant to our friends that are in the fantasy streets.

It's obviously something that we dabble in as well. A massive part of all the things that we do here at four for four week, 14 by six teams with a week, 14 by last year, there were two teams typically week, 14 by that's your first round of fantasy football playoffs. So that's kind of a tough stretch and then you look at these teams like there's some impactful teams ravens texans colts uh commanders patriots broncos

all six of those teams not playing week 14 which is interesting too it's also just weird like you're gonna go that long without having a a bye week that's that's really tough and you have some teams having like a week six by, it's just kind of crazy. So yeah, I don't know how you want to kind of fold this into talking about it today. Obviously we touched on some of this last week a little bit with some easy schedules and some harder schedules.

Falcons have an incredibly easy schedule. They are mowing the lawn right outside my window. I'm not sure if you hear that, but no, you're good. Falcons have an insane insanely easy schedule we touched on it last week too some of their like their first three or their unique three games are incredibly easy as well and that's something that

i think is kind of an advantage and you see divisionally you're going to play all the same teams as your as your divisional foes now where it is in terms of in the schedule, home or road, in some of these instances, it does matter a little bit, but Falcons playing Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Minnesota comparatively. Pittsburgh, I think, solid team. I think we'd all kind of agree. Maybe the fourth team in that AFC North division. Seattle's a team that's kind of up in the air in terms of what the expectations are for them this year. And Minnesota, again, decent squad, similar to Pittsburgh, but probably the fourth team in that division as well. That's the unique three for

the Falcons and their schedule is massively front-loaded. Touch on the Falcons or anything else that you like in terms of schedules that jump out to you as easy? Yeah. The Falcons, the way their schedule is set up. So they have the Steelers and then at home, which I think is pretty winnable, but it's like one of their tougher games. And then they go on the road against the Eagles and then at home against the chief. So maybe they start one and two, maybe they start on three. That is the time to buy on the Falcons from there on out. They play one game projected to have a winning record the rest of the season, which is the Dallas Cowboys, which, you know, like 10 and a half wins. The chargers are at like, you know, eight and a half win total. So it's like, that's the fringe one.

Everyone else, eight wins or fewer. They're projected to have, including the Panthers twice, the Broncos, the Raiders, the commanders, the giants, the Vikings. Like, I mean, they're just going to go nuts down the stretch and so i wouldn't panic sell any you know falcon stuff early and maybe it could be a good time for uh falcons future after week three might set a reminder in my phone just like you know buy the dip uh on the falcon right not overreact anything we see in the first weeks because like i mean they're gonna win 9 10 11 games and but they it just might all come after week three. Yeah, it's definitely an interesting start.

It'll be interesting to see, too, obviously, with all the dynamics going on in the quarterback room there, too, if they get out to a slow start. Not that people are going to be calling for Michael Penix. It's just going to be a thing, right? You're going to be like, oh, this could have been so much easier if they would have added a contributing player in the first round and not a possible know possible uh you know future quarterback and a backup quarterback definitely just keeps that narrative uh fresh

and flowing there as well um some of the teams with some of the easier schedules that same division stays with some of the easier schedules which is interesting too again part of that is you get to play the other teams in your division right right? Saints, again, fairly easy schedule, although I think you made the case that their unique three is significantly easier. You touched on the Chargers as a team that you were interested in on last week's show. Just, you know, obviously massive upgrade and coaching change and the things that can happen there.

Their unique three, Tennessee at New England, at Arizona. So definitely softer comparatively. You know, if you get the AFC East and you have New England as Arizona. So definitely softer comparatively. If you get the AFC East and you have New England as your draw there, that is a massive bonus. I think you could say the same for Tennessee in the AFC South. Again, Titans are okay, not a terrible team. And same thing with Arizona. You're avoiding San Francisco and such.

Chargers are a team, again, you're laying some juice at this point to take the over on the 8.5. I don't think you're going to make a case for them to win the division, but anything that came out on the Chargers with the second easiest schedule interests you. Yeah. And I think it just kind of plays into more of what I was talking about last week, which is like the style of football that the Chargers want to play, I think will be strengthened by their schedule. And like, we've seen it, I mean, years, I mean, basically every year, we'll see a team that maybe they're not an awesome team on paper and maybe they're not, you know, perfect,

but they play a certain style of football and then they get an easy schedule. They can just run the ball, play, you know, good air quotes, defense, and against teams that are not that good. But again, their defense looks better because they're playing bad teams and they're able to win a lot of games. And it it's like even if they do fall behind i think they have the capability with justin herbert um and even with you know fewer weapons i think they'll still be able to find a way to do that but again if you're able to run the ball and then just have him be more of a game manager like they're just gonna be really efficient and boring and win a lot of games

uh so you know i think that's pretty interesting And then I think we have touched on the bears too, who have the number one easiest schedule, the first 10 weeks of the season. And that includes games against the Titans, the Panthers, the commanders, the Cardinals, the Patriots, and the Vikings in week 12. And like their, their tough games obviously are the AFC South. But like, I mean, in my mind, those are kind of like coin flip games of the Texans, the Colts, uh, and the Jags. Like, I think they'll probably win one or two of those games. I highly doubt they win all three, but they're definitely going to win one or two of them. I think the Colts are no slouch.

I've seen a lot of Bears analysts writing, oh, Colts W, they're going to win for sure against them. I think the Colts are pretty good. I think that game is going to be pretty close, and I think you're a Colts guy as well. But if you look at even their hardest games, it's mostly in division stuff. It's like the Packers, the Lions, and then they put the Niners who are obviously the best team they play. And I think the Packers and Lions

are good, but they're going to win one or two of those games. Like they're going to, I would bet that they probably split or at least win one of those. And so, you know, like really they're, they're tough games, like are really very winnable in my mind. So I think that it's a pretty interesting schedule draw for them and Caleb. And I just don't think that people are ready to and can fully comprehend like how different the bears are going to look this year versus previous seasons yeah do you think that's the biggest point right is the fact that whatever you need to do to operate and learn to equip yourself to play nfl football to get everything calibrated in this new bear system, right? You know, two new receivers and all that's going on,

hopefully continuity and along the offensive line, you kind of get to figure it out. Not that it's an easy opening schedule, but like the meat of it comes later. And the fact that you can kind of take on some of the lumps and navigate what that looks like early in the season with a softer schedule is massive. It's a massive advantage that you hopefully you're getting to a point in the season where you're playing your best football you got a little bit of you know experience under your

belts and now bring on the toughest part of the schedule and it's a tough end of the schedule right just two of those final six games are at home uh which is you know kind of you think maybe a home field advantage you'd want to have some of those uh you know detroit in particular you'd love to get them late in the season they get them at home late in the season outside the dome which is you know week 16 cold hand golf game we like we like that for sure on the bear side um but yeah definitely just a great way for this to break for the bears knowing that again just comparatively to the rest of their uh their division rivals a significantly softer schedule uh whereas the you know vikings have a

pretty tough slate uh packers lions more towards the middle of the pack but on the harder side in terms of schedule whereas the bears have a top three schedule in terms of uh you know opponents win total so really nice unique three patriots panthers at commanders uh so the unique thing too like they play read a start uh against the afc south which is weird titans texans colts all the start uh and backloading in the division steelers another team absolutely the other end of it uh backloaded in the division but their their end of the season gauntlet is absolutely uh brutal so whatever that reminder is you want to put in for uh you know taking some action late on the falcons we gotta maybe do the opposite on the steelers you know some people are

like interested in the steelers and bullish on the steelers and i think the roster is improved the quarterback room is obviously going to be an interesting discussion for them but man that end of the season schedule for Pittsburgh is is absolutely brutal any thoughts on the Steelers or any really tough schedules you want to highlight yeah it's crazy too because that their end of their season so they have a week nine by their first game out of the buys their easiest but it's on the road against Washington I mean it's not like a shoo- you know, win by any means, because especially if Washington shows life, like I just think they're a little bit volatile given Jane Daniels.

I think they could be terrible again if Jane Daniels sucks. But if he shows any kind of life, I mean, I mean, it'll be close game. And then from there it's Baltimore twice Browns, twice Bengals, twice Eagles and chiefs.

I mean, just disaster end of the season. I mean, they could be four and four, five and three heading into their buy. They get the Broncos, the Colts, the Raiders, the Giants, then they play some other kind of coin flippy games with the Chargers and the Falcons. And then their tough ones are like Jets and Cowboys, but they could easily be four and four, five and three heading into the buy and just win one game, one or two games out after the buy. So I think that's just incredibly tough. And it's going to be another test of how good of a coach is Mike Tomlin. And he's consistently,

I think, answered the question, uh, with a resounding yes, at least being an average to above average team. And I think they have a little more talent than what they haven't had in previous years. And it could create like, you know know the way that they play and are going to play it's going to create more volatility with game results because they're going to like kind of shorten the game play try and play good defense run the ball a ton with arthur smith like just play like these like ugly nasty games that they're going to be some teams they should and lose some teams that they shouldn't so um i don't know It's certainly going to be an interesting year for them. It feels like whoever wins that quarterback battle in the summer here, leading into the start of the season,

probably has a fairly good chance to hold onto it for a little bit too, right? I mean, we have Russell Wilson, apparently the leader in the clubhouse, probably gets the first shot. Having a softer start of the schedule probably gives him the ability to gain a little bit of a longer leash against some of the softer opponents whereas um you know if it was reversed you'd have to a really slow start against the meat of your schedule you know all of a sudden you could have had maybe a justin fields come in and clean up against the back half which is easier and it's it did not play out that way and it's it's similar to like the falcons when you look at like easier schedules is where

you're at in the back end of that stealer schedule it is like significantly harder than than everyone else so it's not even like it's 32nd but it's like miles away from everyone else so uh really really really tough end of the slate season there for uh for the stealers um a couple other tidbits there's some you know interesting stuff some interesting stuff on who starts early. The Dolphins have a really soft start, and they're another team with a brutal back end of the schedule. The Jags have kind of a front-end loaded schedule, and they have back-to-back games on the road in London.

The Patriots are an interesting one, Connor. They get the second of those two Jags-London games, which has to be – I think it happened last year, right? Didn't we have that where there was back-to-back London games? That's just – in your mind, it makes so much sense that, you know, having already adjusted and been there for a week, which should give you an advantage versus the team that's traveling there. But, like, let's just talk Pats real quick.

That schedule is find the win uh it's where's waldo i i don't know uh waldo is actually on the page though which insinuates that there's actually a win to be found for the patriots i can't find it i know that's like sounds crazy he's like all right they're not gonna not win a game they probably will win a football game uh are they gonna win five or six connor and that's what we need in terms of backing the patriots to go over their win total i sure as hell can't find six i promise you that yeah so there's two teams so far that are underdogs in every single game and look at headlines so like you know draft kings posted lines for all uh 18 weeks so far and I like to go through and put them all in a little grid.

And I'll tweet this out later. But the Patriots are not only underdogs in every single game. They are not underdogs by fewer than three points, which I consider to be kind of coin flip games. There's only four of them all season. So we're talking about four coin flip games. And then just the rest are not coin flip games. Like they're outside looking in from the get go from the first snap.

And so, yeah, I mean, we're looking at a five and a half win total at FanDuel minus 142 on the under four and a half and other spots. That might be a play. I don't know. I'm going to dive in more and kind of go game by game here. But it's it's really tough because they don because they don't have great weapons for Drake May. Drake May is already, we knew, is kind of a project as is. He's not even probably going to start week one. Jacoby Brissett's minus 250 to start week one, which I guess that's fine, but the Patriots almost need a little bit of hero ball right now.

If they're not getting a hero, then they're just going to be losing games and it's going to be ugly and probably not great, to be honest. I mean, really tough opening stretch, too, for whatever you want to make of that. And if that's going to be Jacoby Resetz, throw him to the fire with the opening stretch at Cincinnati, home to Seattle, which is maybe one of the winnable games on the schedule. I think Seattle's a better football team for sure.

But again, trying to find where the wins are coming from, that maybe is one of the winnable games on the schedule. I think Seattle's a better football team for sure. But again, trying to find where the winds are coming from. That maybe is one of your better chances. Then you're back out on the road at the jets at the Niners before welcoming in Miami and Houston, and then taking that second in a row for Jacksonville in London. So just a really brutal stretch. Come back from London, play three or four on the road.

It just is daunting, daunting stretch for the Pats. Four and a half under plus 140 on Caesars feels pretty nice to get that plus money at plus 140. I, you know, laying 140 juice on a five and a half in, in May is not necessarily the best way to utilize your bank accounts. But great bet. If that's your thing and maybe bank account budget and how you allocate funds is you're fine. Tying up some money there. Yeah. You got a credit book.

That is a six wins, man. They need multiple injuries in their opponents and to stay very healthy. So again, pretty good defense. We saw last year Christian Gonzalez played really well before he went down. Matthew Judon went down early in that season, and they still were a top five, top 10 defense based on most statistical measurements down the stretch, which I think was impressive. I think there should be some continuity with Mayo staying on

and being the head coach with that defense and all those things but i don't know i think bill belichick is a pretty good coach uh pretty good defensive line and i would like to think that he had something to do with the fact that the patriots were pretty good defensively last year uh he is uh you know on the comedy circuit these days and out on his boat and doing some other stuff so uh i don't think we're gonna to get any Belichick insight. So yeah, going to be a very interesting season in new England and kind of a tough

one there too. Who else jumped out to you? What else do you want to kind of highlight here? Another fun one. Carolina Panthers, the other team that are not favored in a single game. And I guess not that surprising, but their games are all close.

So they only have one game where they're not, where they're fit, where they're underdogs of more than seven all season, every other game, their dogs between, you know, less than seven. And I don't know. I mean, a lot of them are between three and six, three and six and a half, but it's kind of interesting because they're one of those teams that I think like, I don't want to say could take a leap, but I think could be better if Dave can always brings in some of the stuff that they did from the bucks.

Like we were definitely down in the bucks as well. And he put lipstick on a pig, you know, he made Baker look good. He, you know, ended up getting a contract. The offensive line was terrible heading into the year. And we were like, and he made it look all right. I think the Panthers offensive line has as much talent, if not more than what Tampa Bay dealt with. The question though is like the weapons because like Baker got bailed,

you know, was able to be bailed out by Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Panthers have Xavier Leggett, Adam Thielen and Deontay Johnson. I mean, that's Deontay looked cooked at times last year. Maybe he was dealing with an injury,

but he didn't look that good. Thielen just like died. Like the second half of the season just couldn't do anything. And then I think I've already voiced my concerns about Leggett, who was kind of like a change of pace, who can be like a change of pace gadget guy, but I don't really have too high of expectations for one of the worst route runners in Matt Harmon's reception perception this year against man coverage, just 19th percentile. So yeah, I don't really see it. I'm not sure that they should be underdogs in every game.

I think I'm a little bit more bullish on them than like the Patriots, but it's not by much. Yeah, it's again, all hinges on the quarterback. And if he takes a step forward to your point, we don't love what they've gone ahead and done around him. Not that it's enough, but at a certain point in the one Oh one, there's going to be a talent elevator. So that's going to fall on him. I think to see what happens with this,

with defense. And yeah, maybe there's something with, with Dave Canales and maybe is a talent maximizer and can get more, definitely got more out of the Tampa Bay team and Baker Mayfield than we expected last year to jets. Very interesting jets, very soft front of the

schedule tough opening one obviously on the road in san francisco uh then it opens up with um again some soft opponents the possibility of facing rookie quarterbacks uh weeks three through five which could be interesting depending on what's going on in new england uh denver and minnesota uh but then it kind of maintains an easy schedule. Again, they have obviously some difficult opponents, but mixed in comparatively, this is what we touched on last week a little bit with their unique three, just significantly easier than the rest of their division. The Bills have one of the hardest schedules in the league. Dolphins is pretty easy, just touched on the Pats, but but the jets is significantly easier than all of them.

And it looks like the league would like the jets to be a interesting story. At least as the season kind of gets off to a start again, you know, Tennessee, new England, Denver, Minnesota weeks, two through five,

all very winnable games. Again, the pats not too far back with another week, eight game there too. Any thoughts on the jets? Yeah. The jets are only underdogs in three games this year. Their win total is nine and a half only dogs in three games.

Like you mentioned, they have a super soft start of the season outside of, you know, the week one game where they're five and a half point underdogs thing. After that, it's just like smooth sailing for most of the rest of the season. The other two games with their underdogs in two point dogs, two and a half point dogs in week 14 and 17.

Like it's nothing that they can't possibly overcome. It's kind of just like a coin flip game. So I don't know. I think we've talked about jets to win the division jets. Win total. I think is interesting in nine and a half. Like they're just, I mean, their roster is great. Like if Rogers can just not tears Achilles on the first day and play the game.

I mean, like season, like they could easily Rogers can just not tears Achilles on the first day and play the game, I mean like season, like they could easily win 11, 12 games and flirt with winning the division here, especially if they win a couple of like in division games. So yeah, I, I don't know. I'm not sure how to play it, but it's definitely on my radar of finding ways to play maybe some jets, alts overs,

maybe it's wind total because I think the upside here is just massive in the schedule is so easy. And again, the end of the season that matters, those two tough division games against Buffalo and Miami in 17 and 18, they're both at home. So a nice little, you know, break for them in terms of where those games have popped up for them too. So nice spot for them.

I mean, you know, getting Miami at home in Week 18, that's a warm other team coming to uh to new york there in early january so yeah tough one uh ravens tough start to the schedule as well um you know open at kansas city uh host the raiders in week two but then cowboys bills uh bangles to get started there that is. Now it softens up quite a bit, but interesting to see how the Ravens kind of shape up with, you know, lots of turnover, you know,

defensive turnover, bringing in Derek Henry on the offensive side, losing, you know, your defensive defensive coordinator. So some interesting stuff there with the Ravens. I'm going to continue to be on the Bengals. The more I look at that division,

the more I look at that team. I really like what's going on with the Bengals. I like their schedule compared to the rest of their opponents. Again, we touched on this too. The look, you look at the hardest schedules, Ravens 29th.

So fourth hardest schedule Browns 30th, third hardest schedule Steelers, the toughest schedule in the league Bengals sixth, easiest schedule. So all of their divisional foes have a top five, more difficult schedule the unique three for cincinnati is new england carolina and tennessee um you know like look at the ravens buffalo houston tampa bay uh the steelers have the jets the colts and the falcons so new england

tennessee carolina is a huge edge for the bang So again, they've been off to a slow start. Obviously, we're having to work another year coming off of an injury for Joe Burrow. Plus 170 to win the division. Win total is kind of juiced up. I'd probably prefer to play division on the Bengals. I just think they're, again, it's a tough division. I just think that's the best team there. And they also have the softest path.

So I want to find ways to fade the Ravens. I just kind of find myself in the spot every year. I'm kind of a Ravens hater, but I don't mean to take up as a Ravens hater. But yeah, I think the slow start for the Ravens makes that number early in the season for the Bengals make a lot of sense. Yeah, I think you could almost play this

in an interesting way. So the Bengals in the first nine weeks of the season are underdogs just once and it's four point dogs uh they're eight point uh eight point favorites seven point favorites five seven again and then there's some closer games in there as well but i would expect a hot start from the bangles on the flip side the ravens uh you already mentioned the first five games they're underdogs in three of them uh and so i mean again like we're just projecting out two and three start three and two, somewhere in that range. You could probably, if you buy the Bengals early and

then buy in on the Ravens to win the division as well, then that's very much live because the odds there are going to be inflated. The Ravens after week five are not underdogs in a single game. They are favored in every single game after that. So I that's kind of the you know the ebbs and flows of these schedules here are worth noting because there's certain buying opportunities on teams that way i think we can not easily project but at least more easily visualize uh throughout the season yeah it's a good point definitely ways to you know these are notes to make and obviously things ebb and flow and you know there's injuries and all these different things can happen and you know where we project these teams to be versus how good they end up being ends up changing obviously i mean great example last year's we i mean i know i thought pretty poorly of the rams uh and the

uh buccaneers and those two teams made the playoffs in and won playoff games so like this is these things definitely have an ebb and flow to them. But obviously you want to find based off of what we know now, these are markets that shape these things. We can bet into these, these markets that we think wrong, but as currently stands, this is what we know about these teams and it looks a little bit softer and lighter for them to what you want to highlight. Yeah.

I have two more notes. We got to talk about the Broncos. The Broncos win totals at six flat on Caesars still. I mean, they're favored in two games. And I just, I mean, I just don't get it. Like, I feel like this win total is probably too high. I mean, the defense is fine. The offense is also fine.

If you project even average quarterback play, there's a good chance that they're not getting even average quarterback play. I don't know. It just seems like something that the schedule is not lined up for them. I mean, there's a lot of games that, you know, four and a half, three, three and a half, six, like all those underdogs in all those games. But then there's, you know, there are 10, nine, seven, half one underdogs and plenty of games as well throughout the season.

Like this is, there's not many games on their schedule that you're like oh that's winnable and the games that they are favored in one points two and a half i mean that's it i mean it's two games it's just two games all season with their favorite so um i don't know getting to seven wins for this team would require either the defense greatly outperforming like patrick sirtan winning defensive player of the year which is possible or uh bo nicks just being you know drew breeze as a rookie uh which i don't really see happening and the thing you like to see for the broncos is to have that edge early in the season with those september games at home because that has historically been a pretty nice edge for them early in the season and they play three of the first four on the road so they don't even really have you know they just get the Steelers in week two uh where they host them so most of that stuff

is coming and they'll have to do most of that work early with the rookie quarterback who I feel like they probably throw to the wolves right I mean this is even the reports coming out like how he wowed them in their first you know rookie camp and looking like we're gonna see bonics with the ball under center in uh in week one so that'd be an interesting one too uh they're interesting they have uh there's some like cardinals love i think early in the season the start of the season uh is really really tough mean, playoff teams to start with five of the first six, Buffalo, Chargers, I'm sorry, Buffalo, the Rams, the Lions, then they get the Commanders at home,

then on the road back-to-back weeks in San Francisco, in Green Bay. That is a tough, and it doesn't get softer, really. The Chargers, the Dolphins, Bears, Jets heading into the week 10 by the toughest schedule in the league through the first 10 weeks of the season. Now, softer coming out of the bye, but at that point, the damage might be done. Now, I think the offense could be more interesting if you get Kyler playing towards the ceiling, obviously with Marvin Harrison Jr. there, some upgrades.

Defense, I think Jonathan Gagnon did a good job coaching that unit up last year i think it probably has some success doing it again this year still one of the worst units in the league the secondary is poor i mean they're playing some teams i can chuck it around here i still think you know cardinals games if they're interesting we're going to be overs so maybe that's the the way to play it uh if we're bullish on the cardinals whatsoever because i still think the defense is going to be able to give up points and punches yeah i mean that's that's tough like maybe their schedule lightens up a little bit after the bye but they're still only favored in half their games it's like one point three points one points i mean it's like literally yeah i mean they're it's not great like they're not really they're not favored

in a single game this season by more than three points. Um, and they're underdogs in the way, like the heavy majority of them. So I don't know. It's just, it's going to be tough for anything. The Cardinals to pull out like an awesome season. That being said, like, I think Gannon and crew, you know, greatly overperformed last year, given what they had. Like, I mean, they just had a terrible, terrible roster last year. Still found a way to win some games, kind of just played some, some ugly football.

So I don't know. I think they're an interesting team and you probably the right angle there with the overs being the look yeah it probably just is a team that's you know that can score some points there too i said you have one more note what else do you want to share yeah the the niners are favored in every game the chiefs um are favored in all but two games which is interesting because i don't really think the chiefs got better um i mean i think they're fine like i mean they're obviously a really good team because they have patrick holmes but like their surrounding pieces i don't really think got much better if anything um with rishi rice potentially suspended i would expect like half the season at this point what are you thinking i think yeah six Yeah. Six to eight. Right. Probably. Yep.

Yep. Yeah. So I don't know. I thought that was kind of interesting here. I'm not necessarily looking to bet against the chiefs, but they're favored in every single game leading up to their buy in week six. And then another team that is favored as, as a robo 35 or in the chest of lines schedule set up easy.

I believe it's not super easy, but they are favored in all their games leading up to the week five by, I think the addition of the bears kind of getting better. Um, and the Vikings are going to be, I don't know, I wouldn't say good, but like kind of frisky, I would say some from game to game, especially if they get anything out of JJ McCarthy or Sam Donald, I, my expectations for Donald are pretty low, but I think JJ it's a little bit more volatile, you know? So I just don't really know what to expect with him. Yeah. I mean, look, so all of the NFC North teams play the NFC West, which is outside of the Niners. You know, I think all winnable games for everyone else in that division.

And then the AFC South. So, you know, a decent division, all kind of middling teams. I think we're all, I mean, I think the Texans are a little bit better than that. I think there's some playoff teams in there there but not like a super hard division to pull but then the lions when you look again you have to do this in comparison to their opponents in the division whereas they play a random team in the nfc east i'm sorry the afc east um in the nfc east the lions play the bills uh the bears play the patriots so that's an advantage of the patriots uh the lions in the NFC East. The Lions play the Bills. The Bears play the Patriots. So that's an advantage of the Patriots.

The Lions in the NFC South, the Lions play the Bucks. The Bears play the Panthers. It's a little bit easier. The Lions play at Dallas and the Bears play at Washington. So yeah, the Lions are okay, but they're not playing anyone that

the rest of their opponents in the division don't have on their schedule as well. And then when you kind of look at the big three that they play, it's a little bit harder than everyone else. So I could, they're a great football team. They have a fantastic roster. There just aren't many holes on the roster. So the line is going to be good, but not because they have an easy schedule. Yeah, that's a great point.

And I think this year is something that I've noticed with doing the whole, like, you know, what games are favored in with look ahead lines this year is like, specifically, it's a lot of like the haves and have nots. So the lines are only underdogs in four games, but again, you have two teams that are not favored to single game. Uh, and then you have the Broncos were favored in like two games. Like, whereas last year, I think there was one team that was favored in zero games. And then like maybe one that was like two or three, you know, like it's like way more skewed to the outliers here, which I don't know, I guess is interesting because I think it's created, I mean, some teams who have, you know, inflated totals with these, this

kind of stuff, maybe Detroit and then vice versa, like new England. But I mean, again, like new England, like they're going to win a couple of games. It's just like on paper right now, it's very tough to see what those games are right now. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know where they're coming from. Yeah. All right, man. That's all I got. Is there anything else for the people? No, I think that's basically it. I mean mean it's looking forward to the thread right yeah thread content this is uh compiling and just getting a sense of where they are in the

marketplace um again like i think there's an edge to be had with kind of looking at the pats aren't favored in any games why is there when total five and a half like here's like these things obviously change they have to still play the game but like there's information to be gleaned from the tweets and content Connor will have here over the next week or so. For sure. Yeah. It should be,

it should be fun. And then, you know, if there's any questions, feel free to slide into the DMS and we'll probably talk about it more on the shows to come. Perfect. Subscribe before you leave.

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