Move The Line - Super Bowl 57 Prop Bets | EXPERT Props, Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: February 10, 2023

Super Bowl 57 Prop Bets from Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan & Pat Mayo. The trio shares their top Super Bowl 57 player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro3:08 Traditional Bets & Leans11:42 Travis Kelce Prop Bet 15:02 Patrick Mahomes Prop Bet 16:28 Jerick McKinnon Prop Bet 20:39 Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts Prop Special22:16 Tackle Props24:20 Dallas Goedert Prop Bet26:42 Boston Scott Prop Bet31:38 Tackle+Assists Prop Bet34:54 Kadarius Toney Prop Bet37:58 Miles Sanders Prop Bet40:50 More Tackle Props43:15 Producer Sal’s Super Bowl 57 Prop Betting Card47:43 Jackson Mahomes Tik Tok Prop Bet48:24 Novelty Super Bowl 57 Props55:24 Audience Q+A 1:09:20 OutroGet 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TbYo4XSubscribe to our Betting YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to the final move the line prop drop show of the year Ryan Noon back for Super Bowl 57 to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. And obviously it is now the Super Bowl. We're not just dealing with player props. We're dealing with all sorts of novelty props and all the things and nonsense that comes along with it.

Excited to unpack this here with my friends, Connor Allen and Pat Mayo. We'll start with Pat, the man behind the Mayo Media Network and the Pat Mayo Experience. What's going on, buddy? Doing well. Connor, we missed Ryan two weeks ago when we did the NFC Championship and AFC Championship. But I think we, did we sweep? Did we sweep the board?

Yeah, I think we did pretty well. And we also had a show a couple of days ago where Noonan's internet went out. And I think we're going to sweep the board again. So you might be kicked off or cursed. I don't know. One of the two, Noonan. I'm fine with it. I have a ton of other stuff to do.

Although I did miss it. I hate missing any shows. My life has been busy for a couple of weeks here. And it's just the internet the other day was really wild. I mean, you're on this all day in the dungeon dungeon it functions perfectly until you go to start the show and then it feels like i'm uh you know dealing with you know 1998 aol dial-up and uh it was very very sporadic we had you know knish laying down placing his bets while we talk is always a different element to the show as well but uh yeah we'll try to cross over some of that stuff.

Let's try to save some of the actual player prop stuff for this show. We got into more of, I think, Super Bowl novelty type things in that. We'll talk about a little bit of that as well. We'd love to get some of the off the board, bizarre stuff that Pat is looking at here, because I know some thoughts that Connor has. And obviously get some thoughts around the game in general, because I find this game to be very, very difficult to handicap.

And I guess we could start there, Pat. Connor and I have talked about this a lot. You and I have not had the chance to do so. Obviously, we have two number one seeds. We have a one and a half point spread, total kind of sitting on a key number. We have a team that, I mean, again, we're two weeks in so no no one hasn't heard these narratives yet right um but like i think the eagles are really tough to cap because

they are really good and have genuinely played no one they have no signature wins they've had an insane run to be able to get here uh but i do think everyone thinks that they are good and they got a quarterback that's also kind of dealing with an injury issue that I think is okay, but maybe not hasn't really been as accurate. Maybe he's not willing to run as much. And then we have Chiefs who are here again. We know the Chiefs story. Mahomes, obviously not a hundred percent two weeks to kind of get it right. It's probably pretty good. Another very common theme that we've heard a lot this week is like the Chiefs probably have the three best players, right? They got Mahomes,

they got Kelsey, Chris Jones, and then the Eagles probably have like four to 20, right? Like they definitely have the best roster overall. How do you cap this, Pat? What are your thoughts on it? Do you have any side, total, or anything like that? Traditional bets? I have a total lean. I don't really have a lean in this game. Like, forced to pick, I'm picking the Eagles, minus one and a half. And I would go with what we've seen from the Eagles so far. Sometimes this becomes a great value situation where, yeah, they haven't played anyone. I mean, that's not true.

They've played a bunch of NFL teams. And we saw at different points of the season, the Texans take the Chiefs to overtime the colts beat the chiefs so the chiefs so let's say the eagles aren't good that doesn't mean the game's not going to be close because the chiefs play close games with almost everyone exclusively and we have the signature wins for the chiefs as well although both in the regular season they lost the bills and the bangles the eagles just made mincemeat out of everyone when jalen hurts has been the quarterback so you could just kind of ride the narrative of the Eagles are just really good and no one's seeing it. So I think there are three potential outcomes in this game. I'm going to cross one of them off. And that's why I'm leaning with the Eagles. I think it's a coin flip either

way. It's within the spread. It's within three points. Chiefs win, Eagles win by three, four, whatever it might be. I think that all makes perfect sense. I could see the Eagles blowing out the chiefs. I don't see it the other way around though. I kind of don't disagree with that Connor. I mean, um, we just haven't seen enough. I feel like either way, you're going to sit there very easy to be like, Oh, you're a fool. You went against Patrick Mahomes, right? We're going to be sitting here. Um, you know, I'll have you down here in the basement, in the dungeon on Sunday, looking forward to that. Like, we? We could be sitting here, you know, I'll have you down here in the basement in the dungeon on Sunday, looking forward to that. Like, we'll be looking like, hey,

why did we not take Patrick Mahomes getting points? Or the Eagles just absolutely boat raced them. We're like, man, this team is so good. We knew they were good. Like the Chiefs had questions. We tried to fade under 10 and a half wins in the preseason because the roster is not as good. They're relying on a ton of, you know, rookies, unproven guys, especially in the secondary. Like, I don't know. I feel like hindsight is going to be

out there for anyone, uh, come Sunday evening. Connor, actually, let me ask you this. If I told you the final score of this game is 33, 13, who do you think wins? Probably the Eagles, but, uh, I, yeah, I think that's probably the main, I guess a good way to frame it. Yeah. But I guess for me, like there's two questions that need to be answered and that they'll decide basically the game. So it's do, can the chiefs stop the Eagles running game? I'm pretty confident that they cannot. And so like, I, I just really struggled to see a way that they load the box. If they load the box, like they're just multiple enough, like Hertz can run enough. They can do enough, you know, like sweeps with walk-ins or whoever they want to get involved enough that like, or get the ball out quick enough. I don't think that

they can just stop the run. Like, I don't think that that's a thing. And I think that's a massive issue because this chiefs run defense has played against the easiest schedule in the league. And then in the four games that they played that have mattered against good running defenses or running offenses, they've gotten wrecked. And so that's a big issue. Um, on the other hand though, I think that like you said, if the Eagles pass defense can, you know, give some issues to Patrick Holmes, if the pass rush can get home, like it'll be an Eagles blowout, but I don't really think that that's going to happen. And for, because we've seen this Eagles defense play against five playing five games against teams who rank in the top half of offense in the league. In those games, they've allowed 30 points per game,

their EPA per play against the pass drops from first to 20th. So I think they're still good. I'm just, I think that Mahomes will get theirs. I like the over, but I know, Pat, you said you had a total, but I get to give it, if it's an Eagles game script, like the game's going under, like, you know, the Eagles will win 27 to 13 or whatever, 17 the game will go under but i think that if it's i expect it to be a close either way coin flip like you said um but i think there's gonna be a

lot of points because i do think that the chiefs have their way offensively in addition to the eagles being able to get their own see i like the under of the 51 right now and the main reason is i think what the the optimal Philly game plan here is, listen, you're not going to be, you're not going to score a touchdown every single time you touch the ball. But what you want to do is every time you touch the ball, take as much time as possible on the ground, short passes. Just don't let Patrick Mahomes touch the ball.

Because at that point, let's say you can limit the Chiefs to eight drives. If you stop, if you limit no field goal, no touchdown on three of those drives. And you can limit half of them to field goals and the other half to touchdowns. You have two touchdowns, three field goals and three stops. You're going to win this game. So and with the way that the Chiefs passing game looks like now with no like true vertical downfield threats, a lot of dink and dunk stuff, just lot of long drive short yardage plays i think the time of possession for both these teams is going to be a key factor in just limiting the overall score of the game i expect to see a lot

of extended drives potentially a lot of field goals and if that's going to be the case then i just don't think that the over is going to get there yeah no that's definitely definitely fair um i i personally i just think that there's a little bit, a little more faith in them being consistently efficient on those drives. So, you know, like, like you said, there will be a lot of longer drives, but chiefs, I believe are one of the worst teams in the red zone at this point at the moment. And I think the Eagles are able to capitalize on that and vice versa. I really think there's an advantage for this chief scene playing a lot of like 12 and 13

personnel with like two to three tight ends against an Eagles team that doesn't necessarily match up too well against that. And we've saw that against Dallas where, you know, they were able to, I think capitalize on that. Now they were missing CJ Gardner Johnson in that game, but that was really their only game that their only player they were missing from that game, if I remember correctly. So yeah, I don't know. I think it can go either way, but I'm glad there's a little disagreement because I like the over a good bit. But I haven't,

I mean, I played way more on props. Like, you know what I mean? I put like, I bet Chiefs team total over 23 and a half. I bet over 49 and a half. I bet Eagles team total first half over 12 and a half. And I know Noonan, you play that too. I mean, that's for me, that was probably one of my favorites actually, to be honest. Yeah. Part of it's just been such a print fest this season is Eagles over one and a half touchdowns in the first half, Eagles over 12 and a half, 13 and a half at times. It's just been so consistent, especially with Jamie Hurts in the lineup. So it's been something that our subscriber base has had a lot of success with.

It's just kind of been like a subscriber bet um that people take a victory lap shot typically uh you know man uh manuel manny out there mj3 has been leading that for us so um yeah so we're gonna do our best here this is our last prop drop of the season if you were hanging out with us in the chat fire away some questions we'll have some time we'll get to anything that you have out there obviously the board as as deep as ever and you can bet on some wild stuff especially if you have offshore there. Obviously the board is as deep as ever, and you can bet on some wild stuff, especially if you have offshore access. We can try to parse through that. We're going to have producer Sal share his prop card for the week.

We can try to poke holes in that for him and encourage him and see where he can parlay things or wish he could parlay some more things and see if we can get some good action for Sal. So we want to let you know, we're going to, again, we're going to take some time off because we have no football to talk about, but we're going to be doing a lot of content all off season here on the football side. Draft is our favorite thing to bet on. We just got out of a draft planning meeting for draft content. So like we are ready to hit the ground running. It is a very profitable market. I do think information markets are just different than

anything else. And if you have some sources and you are doing some work, you can find some advantageous lines over the next couple of months. And I am encouraged, and I know Connor, you are as well. We're seeing more from the books early, even in terms of last year, we were concerned that books are maybe going to pull back a little bit, but they're putting some markets out a little bit earlier, even than they did last year. And again, we have less information. We were pre-combine, you know, pre-pro day and all that stuff, but at least encouraged to see that the books are getting out there and at least giving us a little bit to wet our beak. Yeah. They've, they put out a first wide receiver prop for his

quarterback prop and the first overall pick. I mean, we're in February, like that's if something come out to like late February, early March last year. And that's when we started making our first bets. I mean, there's a ton of really sharp mock drafters, guys who were plugged in, following that, following the information, taking our own personal bias out of it for the most part about whether a player is good, player is not good. I know we talked about multiple times last year, Trayvon Walker, and whether he even deserved to be in the top five conversation. And he wound up going number one overall. So I think we played last year really well, wound up plus 40 units on the NFL draft and excited to bring on Scott Smith from the Action Network,

one of the best mock drafters in the industry for next year. But excited for that. But let's get into the Super Bowl here. We'll start with ours. We'll do it traditionally like we do. We'll go around the horn. We'll share four each and we'll get into some of the wonky stuff. Again, get your questions. I get Sal's card and Connor, let's get started with your first one. Yeah, my first one is Travis Kelsey over. I know it's not something I normally chase, but I think it's a good one. Juju, Mikko Hardman's out.

Juju Smith-Schuster banged up. Kedarious Tony, you know, a little bit banged up here. And I think it's unlikely all of them roll into this game a hundred percent. I think Kelsey will be the focal point of the passing game if he wasn't already. And DVOA says the Eagles are about sixth to defending the position, but they haven't really played any tight ends of substance. I mean, they allowed about average lines to Pat Fryer, Moots, Zach Ertz, Dalton Schultz. And then George Kittle's performance last week where, you know, the Niners didn't have a throw, have a quarterback who could throw the ball to me, doesn't mean a whole lot.

Allowing 17, their 17th yards per game, a lot of the position. But for me, I think when kind of looking at this Eagle secondary, I'm just not really sure how they, how they're going to stop Kelsey here, whether they try and cover him with a linebacker. I mean, James Bradbury and Darius Slay tend to lock up the outside pretty good. Avante Maddox is in the slot, but I mean, he's 5'9", 184 pounds. So that's not going to work. If we look at Kelsey in the playoffs, there's just like a next level of what we've seen from him. The last eight games, he has 78 or more receiving yards in every single one of them, 95 or more

receiving yards in every single one except for last week. And what we thought, or at least what I mentioned in the Discord was a reasonably tough matchup with how the Bengals have played the Chiefs as of late. So I just think he's going to see a ton of volume. It's a reasonably decent matchup. I think he has the best matchup instead of like kind of the outsides against the Eagles. I think like the middle of the field is probably something more to target. So I like the over 70 and a half. I know it's a super square bet, but for me, I just see him getting in that 80 to a hundred range pretty easily. Would you play a ladder on him? Yeah.

I, I mean, I think so, but like his, it's funny because his range of outcomes, once he gets past that, it was pretty tight. It was like 95 to like one,

you know, whatever, one 20. And most of those, I think like a ladder, like a hundred plus, but it was like plus one 80. So I felt like there wasn't a ton of meat left on the bone for the ladders.

But I mean, I, I think he's going to be like their primary guy for basically the entire game. I'm not sure how the Eagles are going to necessarily have an answer for him without like, I don't know. Can you really like double cover a tight end with where they line him up?

I don't even know if that's possible, Noonan. No, it is why he consistently eats me at the bracket. Him, uh, Kaiser white. One of their linebackers is an absolute like disaster in coverage. Uh, so I'm sure they'll try to pick on him whenever he's out there on the fields. Azir White, one of their linebackers, is an absolute disaster in coverage. So I'm sure they'll try to pick on him whenever he's out there on the field. It looks like 76.5 is the best number out there currently.

Caesars, you can get down at 76.5. A little juice extra on DraftKings there as well. FanDuel's moved out to 79.5. It's a big number, like Connor said off brand a little bit pat any initial leans on kelsey or how do you think the the chiefs get there i agree with what connor said like you you might as well just parlay it with and do a same game parlay with the reception over as well if he's going to get to this yardage he's going to beat the six and a half which is pretty juiced up right now anyway but outside of after kelsey who would you guess leads the chiefs in receptions yeah

jerry mckinnon yeah we talked about this actually before because like mahomes prop is 295 it's kelsey at 76 and then like a bunch of dudes in the 30s like someone's gonna get there but who is it or he's or mahomes is gonna be like 100 yards off of his line well I mean that leads me to my first one and that's Patrick Mahomes under 294 and a half passing I haven't projected for 25 less than this and if it's going to be a dink and dunk fest like he might throw the ball 45 times but I just don't see them going down the field maybe I'm just way off on that take but anyone who can get down the field against him is noon and pointed out that the, that Philly has the corners to be able to shut that down,

that if it's going to be Jarek and Kelsey, like these are low a dot throws. These aren't 50 yard bangers. These are eight yard gains, 13 yard gains. If that's what you're doing all the way down the field, it's going to be hard to get there unless they're an extreme catch-up mode the entire time yep i kind of agree i mean i think of patrick mahomes under in a big game is probably as soon as the game starts you're like son of a

bitch i do it you know i gotta like cheer for this all game but i do think it's an inflated number that we've seen you know public wanting to back patrick mahomes and cheer for him to do patrick mahomes things in the Super Bowl and yeah it's uh I think the number is a little too high I don't have the stomach for it but I totally think that it's it's under or nothing um I don't think we're seeing Mahomes go for you know three and a quarter 350 here especially in this in the spots I think some of the spots that caught or that Mayo was kind of pointing out to in terms of game scripts and maybe pace and some things around, you know,

ball control. I think that that actually plays into an under on my homes there as well. So I'm going to kind of stay in the same vein here and I'm going to stay with Jerry McKinnon. So this is actually I'm taking McKinnon. You do it a couple of ways. I think the best way you can still get 20 and a half receiving yards out there pretty much across the board varying juice depending on where you're shopping this is

actually again shout out to pat he mentioned it a couple weeks ago in a pod and i didn't really dig into it until uh last week when this uh prop dropped there was some splits that are pretty significant when micole hardmanman is out of the lineup. And Pat mentioned it in passing. I made a note of it, went back and looked. They played 29 games together in Kansas City. Hardman has missed nine of those games. Pretty significant splits. When they're both in the lineup, McKinnon sees about 2.3 targets per game with one and a half receptions and 13 receiving yards. When he is off the field, Harmon is out, which he has been ruled out for this game. McKinnon sees 5.1 targets, has four receptions per game and 39.6 receiving yards. Those are, I think, pretty drastic and

actionable splits. They're going to poke a hole in McKinnon and say, maybe he's not healthy. Maybe he's got dead legs. We've seen that in the past. I think, you know, Dagle made a good point of that on our Wednesday show. We saw an increased role for Isaiah Pacheco in the passing game. I think all those things are viable. I think Pacheco can get there as well, because I think part of it is for me to neutralize the Eagles pass rush.

I think especially even early, you see a lot of screens from the Chiefs to get them to back out, bring the rush. We're trying to bait you into the rush, and we're going to take advantage with our running backs. Because again, we know that there's really not a secondary option outside of Kelsey. So I like Pacheco there as well, but I think McKinnon sees an increased role here, 20 and a half over. I think three and a half receptions again that's less than what he has here in the split 4.1 you can get uh plus 140 on over three and a half receptions uh you know plus 130 that's out there some other spots more readily available so yeah i like i like mckinnon i i'm on this one with you too and this was going to be my next one but it's

jerek over two and a half receptions at DK right now. It's minus 145, but that's still good juice. That's still good juice. Yeah. Yeah, I like it. So shout out to you. And then that was your call. I went digging.

People can think maybe that there's something where maybe Kadarius Toney is in the layer to that that maybe changes the calculus. I don't know. I think they need Toney, but I don't think that necessarily impacts what we're going to see from mckinnon here so uh connor any thoughts on the running backs how they're using the passing game and anything like that no i think we've talked about a little bit but it's it's just weird like for me there's something that's not adding up something that we're missing probably six straight weeks jerek mckinnon out snapped isaiah pacheco conference championship game rolls entirely flip isaiah pacheco runs a season high in routes uh you, you know, plays a lot more in the passing game. Maybe it was because of the matchup. Maybe it was because of what they wanted to do. I, I don't know. It just seemed very

strange for us to not see as much McKinnon when they had literally trusted him in every other game that had mattered for six weeks straight had played awesome in those games. And it'd been like, you know, like electric, you know, one of their, their best players. So for me, that was weird. Uh, maybe he was just banged up, maybe it was dead legs, but two weeks off, like, you know, like electric, you know, one of their, their best players. So for me, that was weird. Uh, maybe he was just banged up, maybe it was dead legs, but two weeks off, like, how does that factor? And, you know, like, I think that just saying like, Oh, we saw Isaiah Pacheco get there last. And so he's for sure going to have that role again, just kind of misses like what we've seen for, you know, six, seven weeks. So I think both can get there. Like you said, I think we do see a lot of screens, but that's kind of my only concern is like, if that was signal and not

noise, then it's just going to be a little bit thin relative to, you know, what it will be. If he gets his old roller back, I mean, he's going to like go way over all of his numbers. That's kind of why I played at least here too. I do think that the yardage is the best because you can do that on literally one. But I do think he has a role that's worth kind of chasing in terms of volume as well. So I don't mind the minus 145 on two and a half. I'll take a shot at three and a half based off of the split. I think there's something there.

I'm going to go with there was a scheme breaker, a tendency breaker a little bit against the Bengals. And we'll see what happens here. But I think we'll have a pretty good feel for that in the first quarter, depending on how much he's out there. But back to you, Connor, for number two. Yeah, my second one, Pat already hit on a little bit here, but I like Patrick Mahomes at a higher completion rate than Jalen Hurts. This is minus 128 FanDuel. He has a higher completion rate on the year. He had a 2% higher median completion rate. We have projected for, I think, 2.5%, 3% higher at this point. And I think that the Chiefs focus on a lot of shorter, lower average depth of target throws against a Philly D that does generally a pretty good job

stopping deep plays. I'm looking at the Eagles game plan. I think if they get their way, it's probably going to be, you know, run, run like intermediate shot or deep shot. And if the chiefs decide to bring the house, you know, and decide to just be like, we're not going to let them run. Like, you know, no matter what we do, I think that's going to create some more volatile opportunities. I think that the Eagles will still be able to take advantage of that, but it just might be like a, you know, 70 yard touchdown to AJ Brown in the slot. And then three incompletions on the next three times that they try it, you know, like one of those types of just a little bit more volatile type of outcome.

So for me, I think that I'm more confident in my homes, just being able to kind of dink and dunk his way and have a higher completion rate than Jalen Hurts, who, frankly, I mean, since the injury against Chicago, you know, his completion rate has been like 57, 59, 60. And then he had a 66% completion rate while Mahomes is at, you know, six straight games over a hundred passer rating. And basically his worst game was better than Hurts' worst, you know, Hurts' best game. So like, I think in this spot here, I'd probably play it to 130, but it's a good look here at minus 120. Yeah. I like thoughts there pat yeah no i think that makes a lot of logical sense my next one is obviously the one i just kind of agreed with you on it's jerek over two and a half receptions minus 145 at draft kings yep love that uh we're in there i'm gonna

go to where i'm most comfortable we We're going to do some tackles. I am going to see what we got here. Make sure I get the best number that's out there for folks right now. Let me see. You can go on FanDuel or Rivers at plus 105. We're going to take Justin Reed, safety for the Chiefs, over five and a half tackles and assist this is also i think minus 105 um draft kings bet mgm that's out there too so a really good matchup best individual matchup on paper uh is for the chiefs uh safeties in the spot against

the eagles um at the team level safeties are averaging 16.2 tackles and assists per game when facing the Eagles. That is the highest rate in the league. An opposing safety has at least six tackles in every game so far against the Eagles. 26 tackles total have topped this mark. Again, we've had multiple safeties top this mark against the Eagles. They give up a ton just based off of what they do run support in the box and that's kind of why justin reed gets the edge over juan thornhill his teammates is because basically the same price um reed plays significantly more in the slot um in the in the box than we see from thornhill plays more deep safety stuff so um i expect probably 35%, 40% in the box here for Justin Reed.

Again, he has six or more in three straight, five out of the past six contests, plus money for Justin Reed here is a great look, over five and a half tackles and assists. I like it. Noonan, people have asked me, what's the strangest props you've been betting on. So occasionally on a radio spot here and there,

I've been shilling your props and giving you credit of course. But you know, I'm like, I got some, you know, my strange friend over here has been diving into tackle and assist props. So the people have loved it. The people have loved it.

So strange friend or strange props both apply. So maybe both. All right. Number three, Connor back to you. Yeah. My third one is a new one. And one that I'm really interested to hear your guys' opinions on. I like Dallas Goddard over 47 and a half receiving yards. So if you look at his whole schedule, he's gone over this at only eight of 14 games, but this matchup in particular, I really like for him. So Dallas

Goddard against teams who play middle of the field, open coverage. So it's like cover two, cover four. Kansas City plays that at the second highest rate in the league. Against those teams that play a lot of coverages like that, 90% catch rate, two yards per outrun, 12.2 yards per reception, literally one of the best in the league. This is better than A.J. Brown against the coverage, better than Devonta Smith against this coverage. And if we look at the games where Dallas Goddard hasn't gone over 47 and a half, four of the

six games against Dallas, Washington, and new orleans those teams rank second third and fourth in dvoa against the tight end the other game was against san francisco where he had five catches 23 yards i mean the game didn't matter by halftime and the other one he had 46 so he was right up right around this number against the giants so i think in a good matchup in a number where when you contextualize it he's been basically right around there in average matchups and neutral matchups, and if not over, and then in the tough matchups, he's gone predictably under. So for me, it makes a lot of sense here.

I think that it's a good matchup, and I'm having trouble with the A.J. Brown-DeVonta-Smith split. I think that either one of those could get there, but I'm just more confident in Goddard getting 50-plus receiving yards fairly easily. Two of the games you pointed out, too, was with Gardner Minshew starting and not Hurts.u starting and not her yep that's a good point love it even better yeah it's a good look um i'm sure there's some crazy alt exotic that ties in bull tight ends uh who there has

to be somebody you have to hopefully not caesar's we have to like you know unbox every prop to actually see what's behind the the number that's posted for him but uh i mean that's the worst prop menu i think i've ever seen if you go to like their novelty props it's just like maybe 200 props that you have to like click and every single one be able to drop down i don't know what the guys at caesar were doing like drafting is a very nicely organized most other sites do as well but caesar's for some reason just dropped the ball and was like yeah they won't care we'll just put it all in one single menu and they can figure it out from there drafting is by far everyone should just have the draft kings model in terms of how they lay it out it's just i can instead of having to click into all the stuff and yeah it's just by far the best um so all right like it tight ends uh

pat number three number three that's the one I've been talking about all week. It was the first one that I bet on. I got it seven and a half. It's now eight and a half. Don't really care. I like Boston Scott over eight and a half rushing yards. He has hit this number in six or seven games. A lot of those have been blowouts. Sure. In that game against the Saints, he only ended up with two carries the game that they lost. And, you know, that's one of the better, at least at that point of the season, one of the better defenses in football. And he actually had a long of eight in that game and then went backwards. So if you can get to three carries in this game, got to think he's there.

Yeah, it looks like his carry number is basically two and a half plus 130, 135. So books are telling you probably around two, but again, it's a pretty low threshold at seven and a half, but I can see him getting three carries here too. So maybe even plus money on the over two and a half is not a bad look too, especially if you are in the mindset where 35 to 13, that's probably a one-way ticket on the Eagle side that bodes well for Boston Scott. Any thoughts there, Connor on a low threshold for, for B Scott? I think I'd rather play Boston Scott's over than Kenneth Gainwell's over. And that's because like, I think that the Boston Scott has basically kind of been a little bit involved, no matter what, you know, like one, two carries around the goal line and maybe he gets

a third or fourth. Uh, whereas, you know, Gain well has basically been like non-existent until, you know, like the second quarter ish. And then they get him involved a little bit and then the game has been out of hand. So then he gets like 10 more carries. Um, so we have four weeks now of mile Sanders against New Orleans. He was in a knee brace. And so like, you know, it was barely used Dallas and week or the final game against the giants week 18 was also on the injury report, really limited and then the last two games were blowouts so i mean he started the game um you know had the majority of charity carries and then the game was just over and they stopped using him i think his

last touch in the conference championships was with like 13 minutes left or something or maybe it was 11 minutes left in the third quarter like he really was just not used after that so i worry a little bit about like the ancillary guys on the eagles but i think that like scott prop is so low. Like, I just don't think it matters. Like literally like Pat said, you can get there one carry given the matchup two, three carries. I think you're in a really good spot to get this over. If you remember when we did the conference championship games, I had miles Sanders under everything and not playing past that point really helped. Oh yeah. I was nervous. I was very nervous. I'm not going to lie. I think we're on a good streak though with Miles Sanders I think we're like three or four in a row where where we've hit and agreed on at this point so just one of those guys that I got a good vibe

on it's not an official play for me on the show because it's been kind of blasted but I did play over 55 and a half two at open uh now it's like 61 62. um which is still fine but I mean that's like an extra two carries probably. So I just, it was looking on an odd screen and I saw a number that's way off market. And now I'm actually in the book and verifying that this is the case. And it won't let me bet it. Cause I'm probably streaming, but I'm going to,

I'm going to do it for the people. I'm going to mush the line for the people. Cause a points bet. If you happen to have points bet, the Boston Scott number is 5.5. Whoa. Minus 130. Still not bad. No, it's fine.

It's 8.5 minus 110 at other places. Yeah. I mean, like Caesar's, a significantly sharper book, which would be hesitant to move it as quick, is up to 10.5 on Boston Scott. Now, again, it's plus 112, so it's chasing the over there. You're definitely paying the tax, but points bet at 5.5 is very much off market relative to other spots.

So have at it, folks. I'll see if it's there in 35 minutes or so when we're off. But if you happen to be watching live and you have points bet, Boston Scott, 5.5 minus 130. I'm happen to be watching live and you have points bet, Boston Scott, five and a half minus 130. I'm pretty sure $10 moves the line at points bet. So we'll see. I'm sure- So what's going to happen is you're going to click it.

You're going to go to bet it. They're going to spin you and then it's going to be available at eight and a half. But actually they pushed it through. So they took your bet at eight and a half. Didn't tell you that they moved the line. And even if you have that option opted out, that is uh you

know at least my experience with points bet happens multiple times last year during the draft in particular actually ironically where you just you get to put on the hamster wheel and you're just looking at it like what is going on and then oh he accepted it but we changed the number and the price and your stakes uh thanks for playing and points bet, always verify your own wagers. Don't allow them to grade without checking it yourself. Multiple emails, multiple times where you have to be like, Hey, this one actually, please give me my money. So, all right. Boston Scott, number three for Mayo. I like it. I'm going to give another one that I have not given out yet. I've been trying to get some information here specifically,

but either way, I kind of like this number. And if we're wrong on a situation, we're going to have a nice live betting opportunity. I'm going to take, again, I have not pushed this out to subscribers yet either. Trent McDuffie, cornerback for the Chiefs. We're going to take over four and a half tackles and assists. This is plus 116 on Caesars.

This is plus 118 on Rivers, minus 105 MGM DraftKings. So readily available at a good number. So it's been back and forth between LeJarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie in terms of who's playing the slot for Kansas City. Sneed got injured early in the game against Cincinnati, but all of his snaps were on the outside.

And we've seen how this has played out. And it makes sense, too, if you think about it. Just the slot corner is closer to the line of scrimmage, is naturally in the box more, can support the run better versus being out wide. They give themselves more opportunities. And we saw this all season. We crushed LeJarrius Sneed consistently.

He was always five and a half and he's always getting six or seven. There was not a huge ceiling to ladder him, but he was never falling below six tackles. Then all of a sudden he had back-to-back games, like two tackles and then had three tackles. And the more I dug in looking at it, he had moved and he was outside.

Trent McDuffie all of a sudden was having six and seven tackles. And McDuffie was playing the slot. So it looks like based off of what they were trying to do last week against or two weeks ago against the Bengals is that they were going to have him out wide or him against as more often or not because he doesn't shadow. They're going to have him on some of the better receivers. I think you're going to have that with whether it's A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, with Jerry Sneed as their top corner. And they're going to have McDuffie, who's been really good for them as a rookie, in the slot. And four and a half,

especially at plus money, is a really bad number. If we're wrong and McDuffie's out wide, it's Sneed's in the slot. We're going to have a great live opportunity to bet on Sneed at four and a half or five and a half in the first quarter of that game. So at plus money pregame, I'm taking McDuffie over four and a half. Again, Chiefs cornerback there readily available at plus money. So that'll be pushed out to subscribers here after I try to get Boston Scott's number, and then I'll try to put that out for subscribers. So that is number three for me, Connor back to you for your uh last one and and then we can get into some nonsense so give me one and then we'll get into the rest of the

craziness i'm excited for the nonsense because pat lives in canada and they actually have a lot of the stuff that we are their fan is better than our fan duel oh yeah oh yeah i don't even know what that is oh it's true that's true i've never heard about it yeah i don't know if it's ready they offered the national anthem there and i I was reaching out to some Canadian friends to get me some money on that because the answers to the test have been revealed. Oh, have they? We are not allowed to.

Is it over or under? Well, over. I mean, it depends what the number is. It was 119 at like minus, it was like minus 280, but I mean, it was like, you know, seven seconds off. So it was like not even close. I don't know. This is what it was yesterday. Someone in our Discord pinged me who lives in Canada it was like, you know, seven seconds off. So it was like not even close. I don't know.

This is what it was yesterday. Someone in our Discord pinged me who lives in Canada and was like, hey, like, what do you think about these? And I was like, wow, this is incredible. Like, I mean, Bovada or I guess we don't even want to say that on the show. But, you know, another offshores have it at 127. And that's about right. So or like two minutes and seven seconds.

And I was seeing one 19 on FanDuel. Um, anyways, we'll go to my next prop here. Not nearly as fun, but actually maybe a little bit crazier than, than the national Anthem. I'm taking Kedarious Tony's over rushing and receiving yards, only 34 and a half. He hit this in three straight games before playing just four snaps at the conference championship. Honestly, I view this more as like, can he not get injured in the first half of the game? Like, that's like,

I think he hits this as if he doesn't get injured in the first half. And part of that is because we've been hearing, you know, Andy Reed saying he was running around yesterday doing really well. James Palmer came out, said that there was going to be a lot of plays designed, said that the chemistry with him and my homes has been there. You know,

all the, all the nonsense there, even if all that's like wrong. Like, I think that it doesn't like, it doesn't matter because he's so explosive. Like this number is just so low. Like you saw him get involved in handoffs a couple of weeks before when he gets even, you know, a couple of targets here and there, he's in a great spot to capitalize. And it's not like, like Juju's a little bit banged up. Meikle Hardman's out, you know, like

they, they have a lot of volatility on this position where it's not like there's, he's buried on the depth chart anymore. And in the last game where people were really worried about his role, I think after only playing what I think was like what 12, 15 snaps two weeks before, and he was still getting over this number. He played, you know, the first four snaps,

like he started to play the first four snaps, something we hadn't necessarily seen in previous weeks. So I lean towards the, I like the over at 34 and a half rushing and receiving because I do not want to get cucked again by getting the receiving over and to having him have three handoffs for 30 yards and us losing because that did happen against the raiders and didn't feel like a good spot to be and i feel like we were right but we didn't end up getting paid for being right i'm looking on one of these like silly canadian books and trying to find this now and they don't have Super Bowl listed on their front page.

Oh, wow. You could probably bet on youth like hockey matchups. Oh, yeah. Like Scandinavian hockey in. I don't want to go to popular. I want to go to stupid bets, stupid special bets. Come on.

Yeah, that's tough. These bastards out there are moving the Boston Scott line on me., that's tough. These bastards out there are moving the Boston Scott line on me. It's all right. It's all good. But, you know. Is it out? Is it blasted or what?

It's not blasted. But it just jumped up a little bit. But that's okay. There are some. Yeah, that's all right. We appreciate it. We want to give the people the good stuff. So I'll let Pat find his national anthem. We have some other stuff too.

I don't know. Maybe Pat has access to, you know, some of the halftime first song, last song stuff. You don't want to blow that up in case we ever get access to it. Connor, I don't know if we're going to, but we're not going to, we won't get access to that. We might get national anthem, but it'll be, it's priced appropriately at like a lot of other places.

So I don't think it even matters. We get it. Like you can't really bet two minutes and seven seconds either way i don't think but the halftime stuff i don't think we'll ever get but they have in canada i think or at least in some spots um i don't know you know if we want to give that out but you know i think a lot of other people have talked about it so rihanna is is doing the halftime show and um you know the last song will be nice and shiny you know i, I think that's about as far as we'll go. Yeah. And you probably don't want your kids around for the start of the first song.

So we'll, you know, we'll leave it at that. Pat, how about the last one for you? So Miles Sanders under one and a half receptions is probably, I'm guessing, the biggest lopsided juice prop of the week. It's minus 235 now. So I can't in good conscience give that out as a play although it is playable up to by my numbers up to minus 220 which is kind of hilarious uh that it opened at one and a half again but it's a nice piece for a

same game parlay like i've played a few same game parlays and just keep chucking that one in so obviously it's going to go over now and screw up the rest of them i'll somehow get the rest of them right and that's the way that it's going to be two minutes and seven seconds by the way is this all i can find now yeah it's dead with the with the under being plus 125 yeah it's i mean that's just about right there's i don't think there's not an edge on that there was like you know whatever 70 seconds off on fan duel or the other book you know before so um yeah two minutes to seven i don't think is really bettable, unfortunately. Yeah, I missed it. So I'm going to take a page out of my guy Rob Pizzola's book.

He gave this one to me. It's at DraftKings Sportsbook. It's down from 145 to plus 120, I think. But it's Ducks and Golden Knights total goals more than total punts in the Super Bowl. Okay. I bet earlier actually the first bet I made um we have a mutual friend that uh tracks punts and penalties and he was all about under seven and a half punts which is now dead it's like I think it's juiced out to like minus 175 180. um so I took that one so yeah so you're looking at probably what eight goals in that game or so it's not gonna be seven it's probably like over under six i'd guess i don't know what a six

and a half that's probably yeah that makes sense i'm going to a hockey game tonight pat you got you got any other hockey game hockey takes i'm going to the blackhawks game tonight you got you you won't follow hockey at all i i don't know a single player in the team so uh you know about as much as i do about this so i i just trust rob this is rob's thing i can't even find first song now it's just what color is gonna be her first outfit i mean maybe we can get that eventually too i don't know oh boy if you find it you can dm me i'll let you know what uh what i know so what was the hockey game that you bet on there's a cross sport prop it was it was knights and who yeah it was anaheim and vegas total goals over total punts in the game oh i'm into it i like that a lot that's probably on caesars and you probably just have to click through all that crap it's actually on draft

king sportsbook oh nice oh let's go yeah if you go to where is it it's under jesus there's a lot of stuff cross sports specials then go to the drop down you can go by sport so it's nhl nfl goals over punts i got a cross sport special for you pat i'd love to get your thoughts on it i'll give it to you after i'm going to do my, uh, a different last one. So, um, all right, let's see a couple of ways you can bet it. So, well, two guys I really like, uh, in the tackle market here, um, TJ Edwards linebacker for the Eagles under eight and a half tackles, pretty readily available. And at the same time, Nick Bolton, the main linebacker for the chiefs, um, over 10 and a half tackles, you can get some pretty good juice on that. There's some

nine and as out there, but I like Bolton at 10.5. Now, if you have MGM, MGM will let you bet on most tackles in the game, and Bolton is minus 145, which is a great way to get down on that, because really Edwards is his, definitely the closest competition, unless, you knowin reed or someone else who i gave out earlier just goes berserk um and bolton that you know to lead the game in tackles is minus 145 on mgm so if you have that book and you can get anything down there that's a great look but i like bolton over 10 and a half and edwards under eight and a half chiefs have just been a place where middle linebackers have underperformed all season long. 29th in tackles per game against the position. Just a lot of really good linebackers have had six, seven tackles. Just the way that the

Chiefs play, they throw a lot. They play even short stuff a lot of times is to the boundaries. They're another team that gives up a lot of tackles to safeties more than their middle linebackers. Edwards has disappointed numerous times in the last couple of months. So eight and a half is a nice spot. I haven't projected for 7.6. Bolton has showed like insane ceiling with like, you know, upside of getting to like 15 here. Great matchup against the Eagles.

They've allowed the sixth highest rate of linebacker tackles. Bolton won't come off the field. And we know that Philly is going to run a good amount and run successfully. That kind of bodes well with why we see a lot of tackles for linebackers against them. So Bolton over, Edwards under. And if you have MGM, you can take Bolton to lead the game in tackles. It's a great look. So that is the full tackle card as of now. So you all get that. And I think those are all still pretty actionable in terms of where the prices are at. So, all right, well, we'll break up the nonsense with us for a minute. Then we'll come back and wrap up with some of the crazies. And then we'll give producer Sal

a moment to share his card. Let us know what his thoughts are. And then we'll see if we could poke any holes in there and see what Sal's up to. to share your screen all right so all right this is fancy so all right so i got uh i got six picks here longest rush jalen hurts uh over 13 and a half i like this quite a bit um i was i had it on my card to do a little bit of work i haven't got a chance to do so yet but i i like it um just off the top of my head. I think he is, I think I looked at it. He's had a lot of games, like right around that number, a lot of like 10 11s. Um, but I have no problem with that. Maybe there's a better price than one 18 out there, but, uh, off the top corner, any thoughts on Hertz over 13 and a half longest rush? No, I think you'll get there. I mean, I, I just don't know it's with him. I,

I feel like it's one of those spots where we saw the 49ers just like read him every single play and so i don't think the chiefs are going to do that so i think there's a little bit of bias there and they were still i think he had 10 combined designed runs the past two weeks so not like they're not running him at all i think it's a decent amount so all it takes is one for a chiefs defense that has played well against some mobile quarterbacks not as well against others. So, yeah, I think it's a good look.

Penn, any thoughts on Hertz longest rush? I think that's the right one. I obviously, it's almost like the Boston Scott thing. This one just takes one, a little bit of a breakdown and you're there. Yeah.

The other next two we've talked about Kelsey paying a little bit of the Kelsey taxes moved a little bit on Sal there, 81 and a half, but I think Connor laid that out for us. Nick Bolton, 10 and a half. We're goodsey taxes moved a little bit on sal they're 81 and a half but uh i think connor laid that out for us nick bolton 10 and a half we're good it's a nice little number minus 105 kenneth gainwell uh let's see over one and a half receptions at minus 130 i bet gainwell uh in the uh last time uh against the the niners because we kind of saw gainwell have a spike in work against really stout run defenses i don't know that the chiefs applied to that but they last time against the Niners, because we kind of saw Gainwell have a spike in work

against really stout run defenses. I don't know that the Chiefs apply to that, but they definitely like getting Gainwell on the field. We just kind of talked about how even late in the games, like you guys kind of luck boxed out a little bit with Sanders just not playing for most of the fourth quarter there. Any thoughts on Gainwell, Pat, over one and a half receptions, minus 130? I don't like Gainwell at all in this game game and not because i think he's going to go under it's just i have no real read on what

he is going to be doing and that just kind of throws me for a loop whether it's over under his usage whatever it may be so i just he's a stay away player for me yeah makes sense connor how about you bud i think that there if you want to play Gainwell over, this is probably the right place to do it. Kansas City is allowing, I believe, seven and a half targets per game for the running back position. We saw Samaji Pirine catch four passes for zero yards,

but he caught a bunch of them. And then Joe Mixon caught a couple as well. So I think if one of the two backs is going to catch anything, it will be Gainwell. But yeah, I think I would lean over on Gainwell here at the receptions if you are going to play it, because I will never be playing the yards again on one of those things again, especially on some bum like Piran. I think that if you're going to play Gainwell, I think this is probably the one to go to

that or some sort of rushing yards ladder. Yeah, right. If he goes over, he's going really over. Oh, yeah. Isaiah Pacheco over two and a half receptions at plus 120 we kind of spoke about that a little bit i um i wouldn't be surprised i like i love this under okay yeah the under you're probably looking at minus 160 170 or so here um connor i kind of have your thoughts in terms of i think both running backs are involved

in the passing game but uh three receptions is a pretty high, but again, it's juicing up the parlay nicely. And then Boston Scott to have a touchdown, four to one. Pat gave out a pro Boston Scott take earlier. We've seen him get some of that work in and around the goal line. That's actually the only thing that would concern me around Boston Scott is like even the seven and a half rushing yards eight and a half rushing yards is like his three carries come inside the five and he gets three carries for five yards and scores twice

um you know something like that i could see him getting some work around the goal line so don't hate that and again yeah 117 to one five to win 592 i mean mean, 117 to 1. Pat and I bet on guys to win golf tournaments. I bet on Garrick Higo to win the waste management at 250 to 1. So I have no judgment in someone sprinkling in some long shots at decent numbers to enjoy your Super Bowl. Again, just because you can bet on everything doesn't mean you have to, but it is the Super Bowl and be responsible but have fun.

So this will be a fun sweat for Sal. Yeah. Speaking of Sal, I also brought up another one. Jackson Holmes over under one and a half TikToks during the Super Bowl. Hammer the under. It's minus 180. Only posted one TikTok each of the past two games. I went into it.

Sal and I did a little novelty prop episode. So bring the hammer out. Smash the under. Jackson Holmes doesn't have time to make two TikToks during the Super Bowl. So yeah, I like under. You spend time on Jackson Mahomes' TikTok, which is... I mean, whatever pays the bills, grinding that rent money.

Dark, dark corner of the web. So, all right, let's get into some of the wonkier stuff. Again, novelty props. We talked about some of this stuff on the Wednesday show, but share some of it and see what Pat's thoughts are and see if he's got any crazy stuff. I'll start with the one that talked about a cross sport one to get some of Pat's thoughts

because this is definitely in his lane here. Again, on Caesars, you have a crazy dropdown menu. This is number 45. They are not in numerical order either so i'm doing you a favor by telling you it's 45 but you cannot just scroll down and get to that you just have to find number 45 you can control f that you can control f it there you go scotty scheffler fourth round score or kansas city chiefs offensive plays in the game. Scottie minus 105 and minus 130. This is a what will be more prop.

So I think Scottie's score will be higher. Again, part of what I talked about on the show the other day, a lot of what I do on the tackle side is projecting plays. It starts with how many plays are going to be in the game because everything's kind of derived off of that. I have the Chiefs, I think, pretty comfortably at like 61, 62. In this spot, Scheffler's only giving up one and a half here. Again, Scottie's scoring average in the fourth round last year was like 67 and change. Scoring average overall is like 68 and a half last year. Again, he won this event last year, was four under,

which is a 67 here in the fourth round. He was 16 under for the tournament. So basically on average, 67 each round. So I just don't think we're going to have a ton of plays in this game from Kansas City side. And to the point that Pat made at the top, if there's anyone that's kind of controlling this game from a play standpoint, I do think it's probably Philly.

And we've seen that against their opponents the last couple of games. I think over the last three games, their opponents are averaging 53 plays per game. We would need Scottie to go absolutely nuclear. Maybe he can. We'd like to think that pin placements on Sunday are a little bit tougher. We did see fewer birdies per round here last year at the waste management in the fourth round than another spot so on caesars give me scotty uh minus one and a half to have a higher strokes than kansas city chiefs plays

i like that a lot i only have the chiefs projected for 58 plays so unless scotty goes super crazy you're probably pretty good there yeah again you're always minus one and a half and i don't mind that juice so is that even possible like what i mean like can somebody shoot a 58 58 once yeah wow doesn't happen often you know it does not happen often so but you're you're all right so yeah i'm i like i like the 58 i think that that's kind of 58 62 is probably a safe range for chief's place so find that on caesars good number uh connor any wonky ones that you want to share with the crowd? I took a fun one that I

thought was interesting was I so I think the Chiefs are going to win, but that's just my guess. I had Philly first half Chiefs second half. That's plus 625 Philly. Best first half team in the league. Best first half team with Jalen Hurts

since the 2007 New England Patriots. Actually, 19.1 points per game or points per game in the league, best first half team with Jalen hurts since the 2007 New England Patriots, actually 19.1 points per game, uh, or points per game in the first half. And I think part of that is actually because they just haven't even been tested in the second half. They've just been taking their feet off foot off the gas. But if you think that the chiefs win, I think there's still a good chance the Eagles win the first half. So it's like plus 600 something. Um, and there's still a way that, you know, if the Eagles win the first half and go up and the chiefs can win the second half without winning the game so um i don't know just kind of a fun one you know it's like plus 600 yeah i don't hate that at all uh pat you any uh wonky novelty props i don't weirdly enough it's just not really unless like it's usually the

anthem but i missed the tweet i guess that came out and usually allocate like $3,000 every year to bet on the anthem, and it just pays for all my losses throughout the course of the year. I've never lost betting it. So I was asleep at the wheel this year. So this kind of sucks. Yeah, it's unfortunate because like three years ago, whatever, Demi Lovato, it's like I had like 5X action on the anthem than I had in the rest of the game combined. And I was at your house, right?

Yeah, I witnessed his girlfriend at the time now wife um just like really concerned that connor did not care did not seem to care about the game but like needed to like be in front of the tv when the anthem started and uh you know i think she got a nice purse out of it right yeah it was shoes because you guys shamed me into buying or something because they're like oh you want a lot of money right and i was like oh like a little bit you know and and then they're like she's like oh well how much you know and i was like oh fuck you know like i'm i'm so so you and you and silva shamed me into buying her some shoes but it was worth it it was you were really intense i mean you were like i was excited focused yeah it was uh it was fun because i at the time this

is again this is before the guy tweeted out the recording this is before a guy like you know a prominent sports better gave it out to all of his thousands of subscribers last year uh that ruined the market as well there were ladders under and over on the anthem so like i had plus 200 plus 400 plus 500 on all the ladders down because i bet the under and like that stuff doesn't even we can't even find us we found one time after like 10 minutes of searching for pat it's not even the u.s it's a canadian so it is it's brutal yeah different different world now uh this dries up um another one in the same vein that i gave uh in terms of like plays you can bet on caesars as well

team to have the most offensive plays to be the eagles uh minus 150 so a little bit of juice there pat you mentioned 58 for the chiefs what's your eagle play projection i have them at 62 i'm gonna lay that i i think i have them at 65 um yeah i'm okay with the minus 150 there so uh and then last one i think is is interesting that I kind of talked about the other night. I like the punts angle, the under seven and a half punts. But again, like minus 175 is the best way to do that. On DraftKings, you can bet under 338 and a half total yards on punts for minus 130.

And you would need like, I don't know, you need some monster monster kicks here and even at eight if it happens to get you know over um I still think you can get there on like seven punts you'd be like 48 and a half net yards which is just would be like second or third in the league um this like Kern the Eagles putter is not very good um So even if you, I think you have a little bit of coverage here in terms of even if the, the punt number goes over, I think the yardage is baked in a little too high on the, on the yards there. So I like that on DraftKings under 338 and a half total punt yards. Again, I think eight is like 46 and change per punt. So no problem with that. I think we, again,

I have a piece of under seven and a half i can think it's live even if it gets to eight so again if we get into a punt fest and you know nine ten punts you know we're in trouble but i don't think we're gonna get there with these two teams so that's readily available connor any other ones before we get to some of the listener questions and wrap it up no let's hop into the listener questions here a couple minutes left here sam shout out to sam uh question of the day pressing news um tiger looks like a tiger thoughts taking tiger at riv what's the what's the number knowing that there's no chance that we're going to get a decent number pat uh where you would take uh tiger next week at Riv. No, I'm serious.

No, I get it. Even when Tiger was Tiger, he was bad at Riviera. It's Tiger's events. It's going to be like 40, 45. It's just really funny that this is his event, but this is statistically the course where he's performed the worst in his career. It's just mind boggling better than almost everyone else in the field. What does that mean?

His event? Like he like sponsors it or like he started it or something or. Yeah. He is the, the host. Like there's the Arnold Palmer invitational. That's a memorial is Jack Nicholas's tournament. Obviously the Byron Nelson was Byron Nelson's tournament for ages, but he long gone.

Still called the Byron Nelson, though. But this is Tiger's tournament. Morikawa's going to win it, so hopefully we get a good number if he implodes today. Can we get a Morikawa rally today? That would be nice. I would love a Morikawa rally. I'd love to bet him to go back-to-back.

I know that's your guy, too, so even though you have no problem cheering on morikawa so yeah uh all right now same thing or if morikawa or max can't get it done i hope they implode a little bit so we can get a decent number on them uh next week but yeah riv is uh is a great golf tournament excited to uh to watch that one fun guy wants to know what's the most fun prop to bet? I don't know. The ones that you can win money on.

I don't know what constitutes as fun. Fun for me is more money in my accounts when the game ends than when the game started. But I don't know. Tackles are fun for me. Connor, what's fun for you? I mean, well, see, he puts in there, if you don't care to lose a few bucks.

So go over to the option that says same game parlay, take every single prop that we talked about and go to the ladders and just max all of them and put them all in there. And it'll be like five bucks to win like 10 grand, you know, 20 grand. So there you go.

You know, you want the best way to win it. All of our props are going to hit. They're all going to max the ladders and you'll be rich. So come, come back to us, comment, subscribe,

and let us know how that goes. I'm looking at Genesis right now. And like tiger over the course of his career he like didn't play it for eight years because he was so bad at the course i mean really i do think he's going to be like 50 or shorter that's impossible and people will we get you don't think so i know i don't i mean i don't think it's a good number maybe you're right i've had such a bad idea of how tiger woods is priced in any market since like the comebacks first started that i just i found that they're all just terrible just terrible odds even when he won the masters those are terrible odds oh no i agree i totally agree that's why i think that's why he's

going to be priced there i don't think it's completely unbettable. I'm with you. Like there's just no way if he opens up at, you know, 100, which he should be like longer than, that he lasts. It's just good. People are just going to hammer, you know, maybe the casual is not betting Monday morning opening odds, but he'll be boosted in a bunch of spots.

And I can't imagine that he's he's uh he's out there at longer than 50 or 60 um what stupid one did i use a free bet on oh will there be a fake punt or fake field goal um that's a singular event where like you don't need a bunch of things to happen i found a 34 to 1 i had a free bet on uh a site to not be named and just decided if it happened to be like oh yeah i bet on that and uh you know 34 to 1 why not we'll see what about the octopus that's gotten a lot of uh of uh traction this year on the super bowl i don't really know why that means for those of you don't know it means a player scores a touchdown and then scores the ensuing two-point conversion uh i don't know it's like i've seen like 14 to 1 on some places i mean it seems like it's

definitely not priced correctly like it should probably be like 30 to 1 but uh i don't know any thoughts yeah well it sounds a lot like that oh both kelsey's to score a touchdown in the game 100 to 1 it's like really 100 to 1 that's it why don't we make it 10 000 to one and maybe maybe we can have some interest here none of this stuff you gotta know too like it is the super bowl is fun if there's not another side if it is a one-way market meaning you can only bet yes or no you just have to know that you're you're getting in bad and that's okay that doesn't mean that you can't do it just you know there's uh there's you're paying the tax basically you are the rake um mary shout out to mary uh subscriber four four uh three plus rushing touchdowns overall in the game um i don't know what the number is on that but i don't

see some rushing touchdowns i mean made the case for boston scott's going a couple times you know we've seen the chiefs be willing to run at the goal line any thoughts on that connor i mean i don't know i probably need the odds like in terms of like you know i mean i don't even know how this would be priced probably about even i would guess i don't know at this point like i mean three plus rushing touchdowns maybe it should be plus money i would guess i don't know i mean i think it's fine i don't really have too much of a take there touchdowns are really volatile but hey you want something to root for i mean i've certainly been on on dumber shit so there was a prop earlier this week on draft kings it is now gone it was philadelphia eagles over under one and a half rushing touchdowns and the over was plus money and then it disappeared oh

yeah i like the over there yeah of course these were 39 touchdowns on the ground yeah yeah i bet they're gonna have a good package too for her it's like a couple designed runs you know this year it's a super bowl i mean let it let it all go they don't gotta save them for anything besides got enough time to heal up any any other injuries so it'll be fine yeah it's it's exhausting to kind of just scroll through these menus and the different offerings because they're all done different it's uh who's going to attempt to find the price on the three touchdowns and i'll we'll be here for another hour so um sam what's no thoughts on hertz over 10 and a half rushing attempts uh pat any thoughts on that i i have it at 10 on the dot so that it's

no specific lean to me either way. Yeah. Connor, same. I think it's the right number. Nine and a half, 10 is probably where he's at. Scott. What the hell is fastest ball carrier mean? I saw that.

How do you handicap that? I was considering that. I just couldn't find any of the data. It's like an NGS thing, right? It's an NGS thing. So wouldn't Sky Moore be the guy then? Oh, oh man because he's going to return these punts and if he gets up to a good top speed then boom he gone is he he is he is going to return the punts isn't he i think so right yeah uh i i for some reason just have a sky more bias at this point. I'm not really sure entirely why, but I just,

you know, I'm a little worried about this guy. I thought he was going to be good and I'm not really, I think he kind of sucks. So, but he can run fast. He's very fast. See if none of the,

uh, there's no Eagles or chiefs on the top 20 list of fastest ball carries of the year. I don't know. You have to, I mean, sky morally toss the ball 10 times a whole year. I don't know. You have to – I mean, Sky Moore only tosses the ball 10 times all year, so that's why he's not on there. They also don't give you like – let's see.

Conference. This might be a best bet. Yeah, Sky Moore had a 29-yard punt return where he reached 19.92, which was the fastest. Josh Williams, cornerback for the Chiefs, got an interception. He reached 20. Boston Scott reached 19.4. Miles Sanders, 18.9.

Yeah. Yeah. Those are your highest. But you have to remember, in order for that to happen for them, they need some sort of, like, is Sky Morgan return kickoffs? Looks like it. I mean, punt return. So kickoff has been Pacheco.

So the answer might be Pacheco because he'll have the best chance to get up to full speed without anyone touching him. So he had 18.8 in the conference championships. Let's see if there's anything on the divisional round. Try to get ourselves a larger sample yeah so pacheco he had a 39 yard rush in the divisional round where he got to 20.97 okay listen to this in 2021 who do you think that had the fastest ball carry speed i remember looking at this it was someone totally random like it was someone not expected it was like uh it's someone i've always perceived as slow which shows how much I know was it Daniel Jones or something like that it's Melvin Gordon oh my gosh no way really yeah what Melvin Gordon

is it right 21.52 miles per hour no if you if you go to all regular season 2021, Jonathan Taylor got 22.13. I see the Melvin Gordon one, but he's down. He's 16th. Him being on the list is very surprising though at 21.5. I always thought he was super slow. That's strange. Where are you finding all this?

I'm on next gen stats and I can't find anything. I just Googled it on next gen stats and i can't find anything i just googled it next gen stats uh there's a stat uh tab and uh actually first thing i did when i was in here it's top plays it uh it tells you you pick the stat and it tells you the fastest ball carrier so that makes sense pacheco's plus 400 in this market then sky more plus 750 those are probably both good to get down on a little bit because they feel like the best options yeah and then it's just a bunch of deep threat guys who if they get open they might be if they're hitting stride then they'll they'll they'll catch a ball maybe i'll throw a little bit on pacheco and sky more just for fun

i don't even know when that's graded like probably like a week later when they process all the chip information you know like for sure so ridiculous yeah let's see where where the eagles uh yeah jalen hurts 19 and change uh hurts so we're not seeing like big aj brown or devonta smith numbers which again like sample so small and you just didn't have a, a chance in one of these games is tough. Yeah. All right. Yeah. I think Pacheco is probably the best, best way to attack that one. So Miles Sanders over four and a half receiving yards. I mean, he's been an air ball in the passing game. I, I, this is an under for me.

Yeah. That that's really low. I, cause I even have, I even have adjusted that, you know, he has one for me. Yeah. That's really low. It is. I even have adjusted that he has one catch somewhere. Yeah. Was he got like one or two in the last six weeks or something like that? He's been- Yeah, I think the last time he had more than two receptions was against Tennessee in the first week of December. Yeah.

Sam wants to know the Eagles number on DraftKings still. The total rushing touchdowns over one and a half is plus 105 on DraftKings. Can you ask him where he found that? Like I found it earlier in the week. Now I can't remember where I found it. Sam, if you're hanging out with us still, let us know what sub menu and drop down menu those are in. Yeah, that's a nice number actually.

Plus one to five. That's a really good number. That's a, that's a, that's the best bet on the board. It really is over one and a half rushing touchdowns. How did the Eagles score? No,

I like it. I like it. Yeah. They always run the ball. They have more rushing touchdowns than any team in the history of the NFL this year. Super Bowl specials rush. Oh, yep, yep, yep. Yeah, there it is.

Plus 105. Found it. You have to go to the game, then click Superbowl specials and then scroll all the way down. Scroll over. That's what I, I failed to do. I didn't see the little arrow there. Okay.

There we are. Boom. Let's get it. Best bet on the board. It's a really good bet. I like it. Yeah. I'm into it.

I would love to know if it's anyone else finds it anywhere other than Josh Kings. I can get more than $2 and30 on it, it would be fantastic. So this is under Rush Props, right? It's under Super Bowl Specials and Rush Props. It's not here for me. You'll see players with rush attempts, Eagles with total rushing touchdowns, team with most rushing yards rush attempts yeah

that that's all here i i think in the canadian version of draft king sports book this is not on the board oh sam uh responded not bad finding that for a guy from indiana uh sam appreciate you listening all year and uh sorry you live in indiana but we do appreciate you listening yeah and i'd love to get down on it for you i can't i would like to buy some meth can you find that for me as well i assume that's very easy to find in indiana i think his cousin probably sells it slash his brother yeah it'd be nice to sam sam is is a good loyal. He found it, so I'm sorry, Sam. Yes. Sam has been an OG tackle guy with me.

You know, he sweats the golf bets with me too. Sam's a good dude, even though he's from Indiana. So perfect way to wrap up the Prop Drop Show for the season. So appreciate you hanging with us all season. Greatly, greatly appreciate it. Again, find all pat stuff there is going to be lots of good content on all the mayo media network what did fiber called the other day the uh mayo media experience the mayo media experience pretty pretty great uh

what are the off-season plans another three putt from Justin Thomas. I can't do two things at once. I'm just doing the show. He's killing me. No, I just looked. I was like, oh, he made another bogey. How did that happen? So he has two three putts in his last four holes.

It's outrageous. Outrageous. Yeah. This is what I'll be doing during the offseason. If you like Swimming Golf, Mayo Media Network, Pet Mayo Experience, YouTube, podcast, subscribe, rate and review, thumbs up, show Pat some love for showing us love and hanging out with us all season. Like I said, Connor and I will be back after a little bit off,

hopefully some vacation time, and we're back doing some draft stuff sooner than later. We'll do some other off-season stuff. We'll get into futures. We'll break down some divisions. We'll break down coaching matchups. We will be here. So anytime you want to find stuff,

make sure that you're finding us in the podcast forum. You can also, again, subscribe to the 444 YouTube page. You get all the other great content that we have going on as well. So good luck. Be responsible. Retail and parlay everything we gave you today and make lots of money. We're Pat and Connor. I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks everyone.