Move The Line - The Best NFL Futures Bets to Make RIGHT NOW

Episode Date: September 2, 2021

Connor Allen and Ryan Noonan share their top NFL futures bets still on the board and they make an exciting announcement about the show's future! Move The Line is sponsored by WynnBET. New users who sign up for a WynnBET account will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000).  Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans  Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4football  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan  Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/  Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football  4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw  4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hJTtqX  #fantasyfootball #sportsbetting __________________________________________________________________________________________ 0:00 Move the Line Intro 1:57 Big 4for4 Announcement 7:20 Best Futures Bets Intro 7:40 Best Bet No. 1 14:58 Best Bet No. 2 22:15 Best Bet No. 3 28:57 Best Bet No. 4 34:10 Move the Line Outro

hello and welcome to move the line presented by win bet download the app today. They're giving away a risk-free bet for $1,000. That's insane. Lots of great numbers going on over at WinBet. They're going to be part of the NFL package that was just announced the other day too. So you're going to want to check that out. Joining me as always, partner in crime here at 444.com. Connor Allen, what's going on, buddy? Not too much. I'm pretty stoked to use that $1,000 risk-free bet, to be honest. I don't know, you know, if you guys are like us, I try and maximize pretty much all the bonuses possible across all the books. And I think that there's a Caesars one that's $5,000 risk-free bet.

And I'm considering it. Honestly, I think that, you know, I mean, max that baby out. I think it could, you know,

could pay for a nice trip to Vegas. Now we're going there. We will be there for week one. I'm pretty stoked. And I think that it could be a nice trip to Vegas. We're going there. We'll be there for week one. I'm pretty stoked. I think that it could be a plus EV decision. You never know. Pat's money line week one? Absolutely not.

I'm not putting that. But we'll get to that in the week one show. Well, looking forward to it. We had just wrapped up our divisional preview series last week. So go ahead and check those out if you haven't yet. We had fantastic guests all throughout. And now that those are somewhat evergreen, things have changed, right? Training camps have happened, injuries have evolved, some certain situations have changed

some numbers out there in the book. And Connor and I wanted to take a moment to kind of tap back into the market. What's out there right now for you as a better, that is still something that we believe is actionable as it currently stands in the bets. So we're going to tackle some of those futures over at Wynn. We're going to stay away from props because our prop show launches on Friday. Connor, you want to tell everyone a little bit more about that? We just had an announcement about an hour before the show. Yeah, I'm really excited. So basically every Friday NFL props drop and we will be streaming every Friday night with me, Ryan and Alex,

also known as prop stars on Twitter to bring you some of our favorite bets, like player prop bets. Every Friday we'll be each going through our favorite bets and, you know, kind of just diving in. It's going to be quick, actionable, really trying to bring you some of our best early bets. And those won't all, those won't be the ones that we're talking about in the 4x4 Discord and subscriber chat all the time, you know, but some of them may be. So we're going to have probably a couple there and then Newton and I will be releasing another 10 to 12, maybe up to 15 to 20

props a week in the subscriber only Discord and on 4x4's website. So it's going to be a nice mix of everything, but I really do, I'm excited for that show. And I think it's something that you and I have talked about for a while and something that I've been thinking about for a really long time. For years, really. I mean, this has kind of been a nice spot for us to do the show on Wednesday Night Record, typically dropping in your podcast feeds on Thursday mornings. But the only problem with that is that most of the books, especially back in the day when we first started doing this show,

we were still all offshore. There was nothing out there in the prop market by the time we were going live. And we know that we have a lot of listeners that are also active in the fantasy space, whether that's DFS or season long best ball. And there's such a strong correlation between player analysis and fantasy and player props. You're getting really granular, you know, looking at matchups and trying to find out where am I stacking in DFS this week. And that fits so much better with player props than it does when you're trying to bet sides and totals. So we're really excited to hit those on Friday afternoon, like Connor said,

early evening when those first start to drop. If you have a new state and you're just getting used to it, there's kind of a Friday prop dump, you know, kind of around the midday central time. You never know. Yeah, like it's staggered depending on the book. Some books are really early. You even start to see some on Thursday nights at times. We want to make sure that we can get them to you as quick as possible.

Because if you wait even Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning before games start, it's very similar to betting sides and totals. It's just really hard to beat the book by the time the number's been sharpened. And you have folks like us, like prop stars who are waiting to pound these. So you'll either be losing seven, eight yards on a receiving prop, or you'll be paying an extra 50 cents a juice or whatever it is. We want to help you get it when it drops, when it's completely actionable. So look for that. Again, stay subscribed here to Move the Line. Anywhere that you listen to podcasts, you will find it. Same thing if you are viewing with us over on

YouTube, that'll be done the same way as our Wednesday show is too. So we're super stoked. We've been waiting for that for a few weeks and kind of a pet project that we're finally excited to get off the ground. I want to say thanks again to our sponsor here, Wynn. We'll be using Wynn odds here on Move the Line all season. Props is a little harder to do. We will talk about the odds that are available on Wynn. But again, shopping odds is the best way to get the best of the number down. There are variations as we get into the week. So looking at size and totals, there's not a huge discrepancy between book to book.

Props are different, and we will present the win odds to you as well. We want to make sure we are setting you up to get the best number, depending on where you live and what books you have available to you as well. We're going to continue to give away a betting subscription every week.

All we're doing to ask is this show will stay free. We would like you to rate and review it whenever you get the chance. It takes all of 30 seconds. Again, it goes a long way in the algorithm. Leave a comment in YouTube. If you're watching on YouTube, we would love to know what your favorite season-long prop is. Hit subscribe there too. The comments, again, help us pop up for more people. And again, helps us continue to do this week in and week out. Winner this week, again, all you need to do is review the pod and we're going to give you a free betting sub, which gives you access to everything at 444.com. Nate Fitz. Nate, appreciate the review.

Hit us up. Let us know what email address you were using for that. We'll set you up. Or again, if you were already a 444 subscriber, we'll just upgrade your current accounts to the betting sub as well. So if you are a listener that has maybe the pro sub or the DFS only sub,

hit us up and we will be able to upgrade you there as well. There's also some other great ways to get access to that uh going over to 444.com slash plans you can find out how to pair up with prop uh prize picks and uh and then find out a nice way to get that deal for just 35 bucks So, all right, Connor, we've been firing our take cannon for a solid two months now. And some of the numbers that we've bet are dead. I want to give you props, no pun intended. You got to the sheet here early and you really took some of the cream of the crop here for the show. So it's a good thing.

There's really nothing in your four selections. It's four for four. We're both giving you four picks tonight. So there's nothing on your board that I disagree with. So kick us off. What is your first bet that people can still get today courtesy of Winbet? Yeah, if you've been following me on Twitter, you know that this is my

absolute favorite season-long bet. I am, you know, I don't know how many units at this point deep on the Lions under, but the Lions under five wins, still minus 120 right now on Winbet. I mean, look at everything and zoom out on this Lions team of what has happened in this offseason from last year. You know, Matt Patricia and his regime are gone. Now you have former Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn, an offensive coordinator, and Saints assistant head coach Dan Campbell at head coach. Now he's going to be – this guy has literally just been talking about biting kneecaps, building a culture.

I mean, I'm pretty sure that they just cut their number one wide receiver in Rashad Perriman. And Campbell's last stint as a head coach was the interim in Miami, was 5-7 at that time, which just sounds fine as an interim. But then we found out Adam Gase the next season took this exact same team to a 10-6 record. We know that Adam Gase is the devil. And this guy literally cannot, you know, everything he touches has basically turned to dust since then so uh you know i'm pretty much down i'm very much down on dan campbell i think that you know he's a fun culture guys you know ted lasso of the lions in a lot of a lot of ways um but i'm i don't think the coaching staff is good at all they went from matthew stafford to jared golf which is a massive

downgrade from pure talent perspective i think golf is also his also, his hand was held by Sean McVay. I mean, for the first year or so of his career, like they were reading the defenses for him and feeding it into his microphone or his headset. I mean, I think that that is just, I mean, that's comical. And it was very clear that once that stopped, like he wasn't as good. And not to mention also the downgrade in play action for him. I mentioned the receiving core, Kenny Galladay, Marvin Jones, and Danny Amendola all gone. They replaced him with who we thought, Prashad Perriman,

but now it's just going to be Tyrell Williams and likely Khalif Raymond or Amon Ross St. Brown rounding out their trio. And TJ Hawkinson, that's your starting wide receiver core for a Lions team. Not to mention, everyone is like, oh, their draft is really good. They addressed the offensive line. They're going to have an elite offensive line. Penny Sewell looks like dust. He is literally getting routinely thrashed in the preseason by above average,

you know, don't get me wrong, pass rushers. But, I mean, he is getting babied. And, I mean, this guy came out of college at 19. He hasn't played in a year and a half. I mean, there's definitely – I'm not saying he's going to be a bust, but there's going to be some dust to shake off for him, and that was shown in a big, big way preseason. Not to mention

they're making him change positions. That's a big thing, too. I mean, their defense last year, third to last to run the EPA, 27th adjusted sack rate, dead last in past defense EPA, and they didn't add much at all. You're looking at a bad defense, an offense that got substantially worse,

and a coaching staff which is unproven, to say the least. So how they win six games, beyond me, I am very much on the under. Yeah, defense is terrible. Like you said, they did not do anything to address it. Back half is pretty bad. Like it's Jeff Rakuta, the rookie that they took in the early first round last year. Did not have a great year, but they're still really banking on him to be like an anchor, cornerback one to solidify that back half.

And there's not a lot behind him. So they're going to be a mess. So I'm with you. Six wins here. Five is a push. I don't see five wins there either. I'm going to stay in the division. I'm going to take under on the Bears, seven and a half, minus 110 on win.

But this is just not a good team. It's not a good roster. I like Justin Fields as much as the next guy. I'm really excited for Bears fans that they finally have a quarterback that they can believe in and hope that maybe they can build something around. There's a price to pay for trading up in the first round a couple times in four years to address a quarterback position. We know how it was a massive failure with Mitchell Trubisky, but they did it again here in this spot for justin fields and we start to see that

there is just a lack of depth on this roster and it trickles down and the offensive line is atrocious um they drafted um you know jenkins in the second round expecting to be the starting left tackle uh he's already out he's having back surgery. There's no depth there. There is no depth on the secondary. I know that the defense was, you know, maybe historically maybe over performed a little bit. And the front seven has some pieces that are nice. But outside of Jalen Johnson, who was a second round rookie last year out of Utah, the pieces in the back half are really bad. This is an equally bad passing defense. If Khalil Mack and some of those guys up front can not get a ton of pressure, teams are going to feast on this Bears secondary.

This could be an over team in a big, big way in the second half. Once we get Justin Fields unlocked, he starts to get his sea legs under him a little bit because what he can do with his legs, maybe they start to become a little bit more exciting. In the interim under Andy Dalton, who is going to be the week one starter, I don't see a lot offensively they added rashad perriman today maybe he can add a layer of uh no i'm just joking there's nothing there you know it's alan robinson and not a lot else uh tarik cohen again massive injury last year with his ankle he's not doing anything yet the damian will and your boy David Montgomery, they're not going to have much to run behind.

It's just going to be kind of a mess. So under on the Bears, again, if you look at the schedule, try to find seven wins. We need eight to lose the bet, but try to find seven. It's really, really hard to do. They have the 27th strength of schedule. So, again, a bottom six strength of schedule. So I'm under on the Bears.

Yeah, I think that they – okay, so I hate to say this. I just, like, took a dump on the Lions. But I think that the Lions might beat them once. Like, I think that that's, like, you know, if – depending on – like, because this Bears defense, I think, is a little, like, underrated bad. Like you said in the secondary, you know, friend of the show and fellow 4-4 writer, Amar, was texting me literally today about the Bears-Rams game. Bears starting quarters week one, Jalen Johnson, Kendall Vildor, Duke Shelley,

and Xavier Crawford. Yeah. Not great. Not good. So, yeah. I think that they have this connotation of being a great defense and, like, kind of coming off last year, last few seasons. But their secondary took a big, big hit, I think,

with, you know, their offseason transactions and everything. So I'm not really not – I'm not in them either. I think that they are going to be a fun team, though, once field takes over. Spoiler, Rams minus seven week one. I'm big on that. I think that they're going to win by a touchdown or more. I agree. I agree.

I want to kind of watching that bears team total to see if we can get on the right side of the number on and under. Because Dalton's starting to, I think that makes it even better. I mean, that's just, that is going to be a clown show. He might get pulled at half.

Yeah. We're not going to give you those bets today, but again, if you are a subscriber and you are in our subscriber-only Discord, we're already firing off week one bets, props, totals, some sides already that we've been hitting on. No props yet, I mean, but, yeah, sides and totals. So definitely want to check that out.

Let's move on to your second bet. So the second bet for me would be the Washington football team to win the division. We actually got down on this at much better odds. You know, we're looking at like plus 275, even up to plus 300, I think, at one point in the offseason. And now down to plus 200, a win bet. I still like it. I think they're pretty close to 50-50 to win this division. They're really the only one that's going to be competitive with Dallas, in my opinion.

And if you look at Dallas, like Dak might never be 100% this season. I was pretty high on the Cowboys offense rebounding, but really I'm not as sold as I once was. Now with the injury a little bit, I think it's kind of scary and leaves their floor dangerously low. And so compare that to this Washington team who finished last year fourth in passing EPA allowed, upgraded their secondary a little bit, their pass rush, ninth adjusted sack rate, ninth pressure rate last season. And then their offensive line heading into the year was supposed to be a bottom dwelling unit, finished top 10 by most analysts' grades.

And then they only added to that, traded for Eric Flowers, signed Charles Leno, drafted Sam Cosme in the second round, and they added that to Brandon Scherf, Chase Rullier. So obviously the biggest addition here, though, Ryan Fitzpatrick providing them, I would suggest even league average quarterback play, pairing that with Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, and then they draft an exciting rookie, De'Ami Brown. So I'm bullish on the offense, you know, especially with Antonio Gibson, too, being in kind of a more of a pass-catching role, hopefully on early downs, maybe not on third downs. But I think this offense could be, you know, a top 15-ish unit, top 10 unit, potentially fringe.

And while their defense is still also going to be a top 10, potentially top five unit here. So comparing that with the Cowboys, whose offense might be elite, but their defense still leaves a lot to desire. Like I think that this Washington football team is, you know, would bet them over eight wins we like them over eight and a half wins we also like them to win the division here at anything better than i would say plus 200 or better would probably be my line for what i would consider betting that sorry sal to imply that they had below average quarterback play last year um the alex smith story is an amazing one they were 30 seconds in um offensive dvoa last year again it wasn't just smith they had some other guys moving in and out and dwayne haskins certainly added to that number or subtracted from that number he's not adding much of anything

um he was adding singles to strippers uh panty lines um but, man. But I'm with you. I don't understand why, especially early in the market, that there was such a discrepancy in the odds between – I know Dallas is as public of a team as they get, but getting 2-1 on that team makes a lot of sense. They can have a really nice season, and it'll be a good one. It was one of the ones I wanted to get, and I'm happy to see that you put it up there too and i know that you're gonna talk about here

one of the other teams in the division and why you're on the opposite side uh as well so we'll discuss more of that later but i think that you know the rest of the division there is uh pretty rough to say the least it is i mean again they won the division last year at seven and nine we're we're not gonna have uh that happen again, I imagine this year, but outside of massive injuries, but they should, both Dallas and Washington should be much better. My second bet is the New England Patriots to make the playoffs at plus 125. I don't think that they win the division. I think this Buffalo team is legit, really, really good. I think their defense is going to be markedly better, but I think New England's a playoff team. They are going to have a top five defense

in the league. They are getting a bunch of guys back from COVID. They spent a ton of money in the offseason, we know. But I think, especially on the defensive side, some of it's really wisely spent. Matthew Judon, Kyle Vannoy comes back over. They added Sean Wade and Jalen Mills to depth in the secondary, knowing that they might start the year without Stephon Gilmore. But they still have JC Jackson, who was a terrific corner last year. John Jones is one of the better slot corners in the league. So they still have a ton of depth in the secondary, even without Stephon Gilmore.

Kyle Duggar is a safety that they love, really profiles as like a Derwin James kind of guy. They can bring him down into the box. They can blitz with him. They can do a lot of different things with him. I'm really excited about what the Patriots defense is going to bring to the table. And now the Mac Jones thing, I think, makes it really interesting. I think that it kind of opens up the offense, makes them a little bit harder to defend. I know that Cam was, I can make all the excuses in the world for Cam last year with coming off of the shoulder injury and COVID, there was no preseason. And he started out really nicely early in the season, but it just wasn't pretty. And I think Mac is a, all these kind of been cracked up to be not really uh

an elite athlete but a better athlete than you would think though he's not necessarily a a weapon to run but in a similar way to a young tom brady that you can buy more time by stepping up in the pocket um it makes a lot easier for josh mcdaniels to kind of run a very similar offense again if you separate and remove nine super Bowls, six Super Bowls wins, a lot of the profile fits from a decision-making standpoint in what they want to do there. Those are huge shoes for him to fill, but they're the reality of his life. He is filling in for Tom Brady at this point, and I think that he is going to do a fairly decent job. They have enough weapons. New England has historically zigged when

others are zagging, right? Teams want to play a bunch of nickel and dime, and they want to run out a lot of 11 on offense. And New England's like, okay, we're going to go with a bunch of 12. We're going to hold two tight ends out here. And if you give us a light front we're gonna run and if you don't we have the ability to use both of these uh tight ends as pass catchers and i think allowing them to be able to do that type of stuff where they really weren't able to do anything like that last year and they still as bad as they were last year we're still seven and nine um new england's going to the playoffs this year we're getting plus money yeah i i get it um i do think the defense is gonna be better um i think the mac jones thing is a little scary um you know i don't know i think he looks great in preseason there's no

no denying that but again a lot of that was against you know second third stringers so i'm not really sure how much stock to put in that fully um but he did look at his advertised especially kind of you know playing style like you're saying I'm interested to see what we get out of them. I think that we just like don't really know what kind of football they're going to play, but I think you're probably right. I don't know. I'm interested. I'm intrigued.

The Dolphins are still going to beat them week one, but I think that they have a good chance to make a playoffs. And it could be an under team, right? If they decide that they really want to run the football and play great defense, like they could do what they did a little bit last year and take their foot off the gas. But I think if they decide they want to do a little bit more we really have heard nothing but really great things coming out of camp there and again the expectations are high

for mac but because they have a great running game it's an elite offensive line they're really strong and they have depth they have eight offensive line starters, and the defense is good. So the fact that they don't need Mack to go out and be a world beater from day one I think helps them quite a bit. So who won the third back, Connor? What do you think here? All right, bet number three, another bad team's under. This one won't be as long-winded here, but the Texans, I think,

have arguably a historically bad roster. I think that this team rivals the defeated Lions of a couple of years ago. I mean, they lost Will Fuller, lost J.J. Watt. They have a bottom three defense, and they added literally their free agency. They didn't add a single player that was even above average. Watson almost certainly does not play this year. He's either getting traded or they already said that he's going to be a healthy scratch.

And then beyond that, I mean, they're going to be rolling out Davis Mills or Tyrod Taylor with Brandon Cooks as their number one wide receiver, who, you know, is a player that can't beat man coverage as we talked about in past episodes. He's just not a guy who separates well enough in press man. And that's something that has been shown by a lot of the film grinders out there and something that I think matters in the situation where he's just not a guy who separates well enough uh impressed man and that's something that has been shown by a lot of the the film grinders out there and something that i think matters in the situation where he's the only receiver with any kind of legitimate talent um and then there are their offensive line isn't that good they also just um traded away shack watson and beyond that

like their their uh running game i mean this might be something that they try and lean on here like i mean it seems like this texans team just wants to run the ball 35 team, 35 times a game and like, just get out of there. That's going to be their, their motto because they're going to be bow race on defense and their offense is going to be, it's going to be hilarious to watch them try and catch up.

And they're just not good enough to compete with anyone. I mean, I just, I, I just dogged on the lions, uh, for a long time, but at least the lions offensive line should be like average.

The Lions are better than the Texans. They are. They are. And I would say by a little bit, you know, by a good bit, because Jared Goff, while I don't think he's good, he's better than Tyra Taylor. And the offensive line is at least average. And, I mean, the weapons are similarly bad.

But, you know, like just in general, I think that those two differentiation right there, at least give the lions probably one to two wins. Whereas the Texans, I mean, they're not gonna be favored in a single game. And so for them to win five games would be, I mean,

astounding. The fact that we're still getting four wins on this, I get that people just don't, don't like, they're scared of betting unders on low teams, but like, there is no team that is even like close outside of the outside of like 75 or something lions to houston yeah they are they're

bad maybe historically bad i think it's 16 to 1 still for them to go oh and 17 i think there were some like 22s 20s out there for a while, but 16 is still worth a sprinkle. So I haven't priced that over a win, but I think it's probably out there somewhere. It's worth a look. It's a bad, bad, bad football team, and they have the second-hardest schedule in the league. So on top of everything, they also play a brutal schedule.

Yeah, I mean, even when the Colts are rolling out, like Jacob Beeson or Sam Ellinger, when the colts are rolling out like jacob beason or you know sam ellinger like still just you know culture favored by probably four and a half to six on the road yeah it's true uh i'm also down i don't think we have any overs um we have like playoff teams but i don't think we have any win total overs i'm taking an under on the giants at seven and a half i'm willing to pay a little bit of the juice here minus 130 at win i don't know where the perception was i think they had a run of like really bad teams in the second half where people think that like they have an above average like maybe even a good defense um i just i don't really see it they're middle of the pack and basically

every metric they were dead last in pass rush win rate uh they don't get see it. They're middle of the pack in basically every metric. They were dead last in pass rush win rate. They don't get any pressure. They drafted Aziz Ojolari in the second round out of Georgia. Unless he comes in and he's a world beater right away, they didn't really add anything else that makes you think that that's going to change. The secondary is not great. It's James Bradbury who was terrific last year. But we know if there's no pressure, those things can't hold up. We see some guys have these great years and they play a lot of zone. He did really well in that.

But the other guys around him aren't really great. Dory Jackson can't really stay on the field. They have all these other guys. And we're not even getting to the offense and the offensive line. The offensive line is terrible. Daniel Jones has fumbled 29 times in 27 NFL games. We're not even talking about interceptions. He's fumbled more than once per game, which is just an incredible rate. He was pressured on 41% of his dropbacks last year. That's really hard to do. I don't care who you are.

And he's shown that he struggles. And I know that they went out and added weapons, but Kenny Galladay can't stay healthy. Kadarius Toney is like my age who like popped one year as a senior. And he's like, you know, he can run a 4-2-5 or whatever, but like he can't stay on the field. There isn't a lot of historical precedent for guys of that size to come in and make a real impact in the league.

Saquon Barkley, hopefully for his sake, he's a lot of fun to watch. I hope Saquon stays healthy and does his best behind that offensive line, but there's just not a lot of encouraging things here. We typically see and we hear all the time, like there's a lot of punching bags in New York with Gettleman and Jason Garrett, but like they're for, they happen for a reason. Like they kind of do it to themselves. Like the Giants have one of the lowest completion rates over expectation last year.

That means they don't scheme easy things for Daniel Jones. So I can't see eight wins on this roster. Everyone thinks they had a nice year last year because they almost won the playoffs here. They were 6-10. They had that one surprise win in Seattle, which I think cost us some money. But other than that, this is not a really great team. The defense isn't good, and the offense is pretty awful so uh give me that i'll pay the yeah i mean that it's not to mention too evan ingram michael and ir they just talked

about today so you know daniel jones with the worst offensive line in the league and or one of the worst and no weapons is a recipe for disaster yeah nate sold his back he opted out for covid but he's been really rough since he left New England and went there and is a free agent. He's been just kind of a money pit. I think this actually could be pretty similar to a Trubisky third year situation where

some people think he's good and then he just sucks. He gets benched. I think Daniel Jones can have some usable weeks in fantasy, but he's not leading an eight-win team, and he's not good. Those can be concurrent. So what do you got next?

We will move on to the Bucs minus 220 to win the division. I mean, just top to bottom, elite talent everywhere. I mean, they were saying, retained essentially all of their top players from last season. They were fifth in both offensive and defensive EPA last year, and they went 11 and five, but that was with their division mate, the Saints going 12 and four. The Saints, I think should take a step back.

James Winston's their starter, you know, obviously very turnover prone as he's shown throughout his career. It would take, I think should take a step back. Jameis Winston's their starter. Obviously very turnover prone, as he's shown throughout his career. It would take, I think, a lot, maybe more than LASIK to just fix that. And their defense also lost a couple of key players, Trey Hendrickson, Malcolm Brown, Sheldon Rankins, after finishing fourth in EPA last season. So you imagine that probably takes a tumble down to middle of the pack, and you probably also imagine that J that James Winston does not make them as

efficient on offense, or if they are as efficient, he's still gonna be turning the ball over plenty and turnover, the turnover margin decides, you know, up to 80% of games. So that's basically, I think that that's for the saints, like we're looking at probably closer to like eight to nine wins this year. Whereas the bucks, there is no reason for them not to win, you know, 12-plus games and win this division.

I think that it's still even short of minus 220. Like, they're just very, very clearly the best team in this division. And then you look at some of their other competition, Falcons defense I think could be one of the worst in the league with PFF's worst grade at secondary, ETR's second worst pass rush. And their offense is obviously good, but you're not going to compete with a team that can't rush the passer or play pass defense uh and then the panthers defense looks improved as is their offense but again we're talking about a team that's going from like you know bottom 10

to like maybe i don't know average uh you know maybe maybe 10 to 15 range if they have a good year so like that's not enough to knock off a bucks team which is you know a top five team overall if not top three or two you made my case for for mine i should talk about yours uh because yeah the bucks are are bringing back not just all 22 starters but like the top they have 31 guys play over 200 snaps last year they're all back um they added geo they they're gonna you know add oj howard that you know the bucks minus 220 i think you could have got i think they added Gio, they're going to add OJ Howard, the Bucks. Minus 220, I think you could have got minus 170. But still minus 220 is a little under 70% implied probability.

That's still – there's these scenarios where you're like, we know we missed the best of the number. It doesn't mean that you missed a bettable number. This is still a bettable number. It's a little higher than I typically like to go. But this is, man, there has to be a massive just cluster of injuries or COVID outbreak. Something would have to happen in a big, big way here for Tampa Bay to not take this division.

So my bet is the Saints to miss the playoffs, which Connor just made the case for. I didn't even notice that that was it. I'm not going to lie. So sorry for busting on the Saints so much. No, that was at least on the same page. I mean, you mentioned the change of quarterback, a lack of efficiency changes.

They've had some stinker years, even with Drew Brees, and now we're dealing with Michael Thomas. The offensive line is really solid, but the defense is a problem. The defense was really good last year, but they've been in this rotating salary cap hell for a while, and I think it kind of came to roost a little bit last year. Emmanuel Sanders is gone. Jerry Cook is gone.

And they lost a bunch of really key contributors defensively. You mentioned Janoris Jenkins, Sheldon Rankings, Malcolm Brown. Trey Hendrickson is one of the better edge rushers in the league. I think he had like 14 sacks last year. So a lot of really key guys on the defensive side of the ball are gone. For them to miss their the playoffs i think is in play i think their win total is at nine and you know i can see them getting to nine and still missing the playoffs i don't think they get there i think this is maybe like an

eight win team i can see an eight nine i don't think they fall off the face of the earth and become this four or five win team you know that again offensive line is still too good but you know paint still sharp enough to scheme stuff up and there's some wins in the division but yeah this is not a team that i expect to compete with the bucks and you know make the playoffs in the you know an increasingly good consider look at that nfc west i mean there could easily be three playoff teams there we think both dallas and washington are feistyisty. Maybe they don't get two, maybe they only get one, but I can make the case for whoever doesn't win that division being better

than New Orleans. So I think the Saints missed the playoffs. Yeah, I'm definitely on board with that as well. This whole division seems fairly easy to project outside of James Winston becoming Drew Brees. I mean, that's essentially what it would take, I think. And then not to mention, James Winston is throwing to Marquez Calloway. Michael Thomas is out half the season. So if not more, we don't even know. Yeah, if not more. So, like, literally he's throwing to a bunch of bums outside of Alvin Kamara.

Yep, so all eight of those bets, four from me and four from Connor, are all available currently at WinBet. That's really important to us. We know you can go back and listen to those divisional preview pods. Again, us breaking those down, we had terrific guests, but some of those numbers have moved. You can still get

the analysis. I think they're worthy of a listen if you haven't done so. Again, these are live as of now. You can go and hit those right now on WinBet. So again, don't forget to rate and review the pod. You will enter yourself in a drawing for a free betting sub. Let us know if you're watching on YouTube. Leave a comment. Give us a like and also let us know what your favorite prop is right now or sorry, future is right now. Don't forget to tune in starting Friday, two days from now, we will be here with our season long prop show.

We will have prop stars on for week one. I believe it'll just be you and I, right Connor for our season long show. Yep. Just you and I next week. And then every week thereafter will be me, you and a prop stars going forward. It's going to be awesome.

So that wraps us up for today so for connor i'm ryan we'll see you on friday