Move The Line - The BIGGEST Lessons We Learned From Our WORST NFL Bets of 2022

Episode Date: June 8, 2023

Join us as we reflect on the highs and lows of the 2022 NFL season and dive into our most disastrous betting experiences. In this eye-opening episode, we unveil our biggest mistakes and the valuable lessons we learned from our worst NFL bets. From misguided predictions to unexpected upsets, we share the behind-the-scenes stories that shaped our understanding of the game. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, this video is packed with actionable insights and strategies to help you make smarter decisions for the 2023 NFL season. Don't miss out on this candid discussion that will transform your approach to NFL betting. Watch now and gain the knowledge you need to rise above the rest!Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansWIN $2,500 With EDGE Boost 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3Nj1SmvFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

I believe it was the great Michael Scott that said you miss 100% of the shots that you don't take. When you get into the futures market aggressively, you're going to miss some times. It's easy to play Monday morning quarterback in January once the results come in. But taking time to look back on the how and the why of each of the plays are really important. So on today's Move the Line, we're going to look back and see what we can learn from some of our biggest misses in 2022. Let's dig in welcome to move the line i'm ryan noonan joined here as always by conor allen and sharp clark clark start with you missed you last week uh how are things my friend good other than a back injury getting old sucks uh also doing deadlifts incorrectly sucks but i'll recover i will be okay i know how getting older sucks i got a little bit

older this week uh but was joined by my good friend connor allen for some delicious uh dinner and shenanigans connor how we doing yeah that night got off the rails pretty fast there uh it was a lot of fun but i'm glad that we went home when we did, to be honest. It was, I mean, it was like a Tuesday. So, you know, I can't, I just came back from Vegas right into a birthday on Tuesday. People were asking me to go out for the finals on Wednesday. I was like, dude, I need a break. My body is in shambles right now.

And you're young. You should be able to hang still. So I know I can't hang. I know my limits at this point in life. I did not continue on in the evening. You, you had the easy L built in dad life. I had my wife and my oldest child with us. So it was a very easy exit for me before things went super haywire. But, uh, you know, again, good times had by all, but yeah, getting old, it sucks.

It's not great. Uh, yeah, we're going to be here every week leading up to the start of the season uh lots of other original great content here we've spawned off from our four for four fantasy football page we have a new youtube channel four for four bets uh where we are now so subscribe so you don't miss a show um we love the support of the free content so thumbs up comments in the video go a long way in helping us do that jump in the chat let us know what your favorites or maybe your worst swing and miss, your favorite one that we had this year. Love to hear from you there as well. Still available in podcast form wherever you download and listen to podcasts. So subscribe there as well. Five stars, thumbs up. Again,

all those things go a long way in helping us and supporting the free content. Connor, we have a new partnership. You talked about it a little bit last week. I'm excited about it. The more I've learned here about this and we have a really exciting promotion here as well. You want to tell the people a little bit about this? Yeah. Our friends over at Edge Boost are giving away $2,500 in the next week in just a straight up $2,500 gift card. It's like a Visa gift card. We were going to do a $200 gift giveaway, and then they came in and said, hey, you know what? We're going to make that $2,500. So all you got to do is click the link in the bio, sign up for Edge Boost.

It's free. If you want to know more about what Edge Boost is, basically, they just will provide you credit on legal books. They obviously go through a lot of checks, balances, make sure that it's all good. It's important. Gamble responsibly. That's obviously the key there, but they have a lot of stops in place for that. They're not just going to give you like a $10,000 credit limit or anything. It starts at like 200 bucks. So you

work your way up, you build credit. I think it's really useful for people who kind of want to use credit in a legal space. So yeah, check the link in the bio. Definitely worth it. And if you haven't signed up again, I mean, it's 2,500 bucks. There's not very many people signed up, so I would do it now. Yeah. It's like when we had signed up. So I would do it now. Yeah. It's like when we, you know, had promotions in the past, like Thrive Fantasy, we were doing these Thrive contests, you know, and like they were GPP payouts, guaranteed payouts. No one was in there. Like right now, like you have a chance, you know, we just launched this as brand new.

Not a lot of people are in. So, you know, the pool is pretty small for a shot at free $2,500 and a pretty exciting way to get funded. And sometimes that's actually a nice piece when we're talking about futures at this time of year, where you don't want to get too far out in front in terms of leveraging bankroll to get into the future market, knowing that you have to wait eight, nine months to get paid out. Leveraging credit in that spot is not a bad place to do so. So check it out. Again, links in details in the show notes. Also can find out more about getting a betting subscription at 444. Betting sub gets you access to everything that we have on the site. If you dabble in any of the Pick'em sites like No House Advantage or Vivid Picks,

we have channels and plays in there as well. And we've partnered with both of those sites for you to get a very, very, very, very significantly discounted three-month betting subscription with, again, details in the show notes, with No House Advantage or VividPix. I'm sorry, you can use promo code 444BET. They're going to match your deposit up to $200. But again, it's five bucks, minimum deposit of $5 gets you three months of a betting subscription. So you can stack these bad boys on top of each other, get you six months. It's going to take you through most of the season. Pretty interesting way to get access to our betting subscription.

And again, that's everything on 444. So best ball, DFS, season long rankings, projections, all the tools that we have on the site available for just $5. Take advantage. It's in the show notes. So Clark, this is an idea that you had, I think is a really great idea. I'll let you get it started. Again, it's very interesting to look back and just be like, oh yeah, variance ran poor there, missed it. I'll be better next year.

Being able to step back. And I know it's a big part of your process is to really dive in to try to learn some stuff here, right right instead of just being like hey I missed a little bit on you know X team things happen talked about your process and how you evaluate what happened last year how you can move forward and make that process better for 2023. I think it's really important to if you care about winning if your goal is to be a long-term winner I think it's really important to constantly evaluate your process. And the easiest way to do that is to, when you make a bet, write down the reasoning for the bet, right? You want to write down the current price, what the bet is, how much you risk, and then the reasoning. And then when the bet settles, well, when the game starts or when the

season starts, look to see if you got closing line value. That's a good way to evaluate whether or not you're beating the market. And then once the event is over, look at your reasons for making the bet and then see how they played out versus reality. I think that can be a really good process. And so my first one I want to talk about was I bet the Falcons under five and a half wins at plus 100. This was a very early in the offseason bet and actually did get significant closing line value because the line closed at four and a half and you could get plus 100 to the over at four and a half. So I could have completely closed out my position with a guaranteed middle at five wins or no loss, or I could have just played the ultimate line and guaranteed a profit, but I didn't. And that was a big mistake because I was too bullish on the

Falcons. And there's a major reason why. And that is because I thought that surely Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota was a significant drop-off. And the Falcons were not good with Matt Ryan, therefore they're going to be even worse with Mariota. And the thing that that take completely missed was that it wasn't a drop from Matt Ryan. It was a drop from an aging shell of Matt Ryan who had no mobility behind a mediocre offensive line to a mobile quarterback who can actually make things happen when things don't necessarily go 100% correctly and a quarterback where they're going to lean on the run more because when you have Matt Ryan, you don't want to run the ball. You want to use your quarterback. And so the team looked completely different. The offense was completely structured differently and it was a completely new team. And so that, that sort of thought process was basically incorrect. I bet into uncertainty

at a very low number going under, and I was wrong. Yeah. You're on mute, Ryan. Amateur hour. I say kudos to Arthurith for acknowledging what he had in being able to adapt to the new offense too right it was as you mentioned kind of a shift in philosophy too so it ended up being less of a one-for-one trade because they really shifted the entirety of what they did um again i this is a 2022 look back we're back in the same spot of you being very very bullish on the Falcons for 2023, different purposes. And we'll talk about more of that in different shows.

But I think that that's definitely a great way to start the show. Connor, back to you for your first one. And I'm hand in hand with you here. This was a very popular one in the preseason. And that in itself should probably be alarming. Yeah, not great here. And I think that Matt Ryan was a good segue. I mean, we were pretty interested in Colts to win the division there. And I think that a lot of that is, I mean, a lot went wrong. I mean, they finished

with four wins guys. Like they were, they didn't even finish last in their division, but in any other division, they basically do only because they had the Texans in their division. But if we look at this team, you know, we were projecting an upgrade from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan. Again, I still really don't think Carson Wentz is very good, but Matt Ryan was really bad. Wasn't mobile. Uh, and you know, they weren't really able to do a whole lot offensively. And then you look at defensively, we were expecting an upgrade there. Um, and that just never happened. I mean, the guys that they signed in Gawkway, Stefan Gilmore, just like really never, you know, ended up kind of like helping the defense progress. And I think that goes into some of the volatility that we see year over year with

defensive, uh, with defenses, you know, it's like, even if you think that they're going to be a little bit better, I think like, it's just really tough to predict project there. My overall takeaway though, on this one specifically was like, a lot of our reasoning was like, okay, the division sucks and they're the best team, but we don't like love them. And I think that that kind of, and I think there's a common theme after going through my biggest misses is that changes at the division and i project them to take a step forward because of these changes isn't necessarily a good one because like there if there's no continuity like it's just a lot less stable and so for me that was kind of my biggest takeaway like okay we probably shouldn't have laid any juice on the colts to win the division even though we thought on paper they were probably the best team there was just like too many changing pieces there to account for i went back and read some of the stuff that I wrote too, because I had written an article about basically the best bet for every team

and the best bet that I wrote for the Colts was for them to win the division. Even in the piece, I'm talking about the flawed perception of the offensive line being elite and they have an elite talent in Quentin Nelson, but the rest of the offensive line had a lot of question marks. And again, when you're talking about a guard being this elite talent and you have, you're bringing in this immobile quarterback, we began bashing Matt Ryan quite a bit here to

start the show. It was a really poor mix. And also talked about how the secondary pieces in terms of skill position players outside of Michael Pittman were pretty weak. It is Michael, I'm a Michael Pittman Stan, but as Michael Pittman really a, like a one, you know, one a wide receiver in this league, probably not. Right. He's pretty, he's probably in a, if we're a really good team,

he's probably an elite too. So that was also flawed too. We didn't have any secondary pieces come up and then you have, you know, resting on the laurels of a running back from the year before jonathan taylor goes down and it just was an absolute mess you know shack lawson goes down it's just there were a lot of things that went poorly uh that kind of collapsed really quickly against just trying to draw a straight line from carson wins to matt ryan was was really flawed so i like how you laid that out there, Connor. Yeah, I also think that there's a deeper parallel to be made here, which is basically don't underestimate the negative impact of a

immobile quarterback behind a bad offensive line. Like there needs to be a baseline level of just maneuverability, whether it's within the pocket, just, you know, just outside the pocket. We don't need every team to have Lamar Jackson, but your quarterback behind a weak offensive line needs to be able to move. And so we saw the Colts struggle. We saw the Falcons do better than expected. And I think we can project this forward to this year and look at a team like the Bucks and say, you guys are going to disagree with me on this because I know you love the

under, but the Bucks offense last year, we're going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield, maybe. And Tom Brady was, you know, he didn't move a lot last year. And so that put too much pressure on a bad offensive line, and their offense struggled as a result of it. So there's a chance that they may not be as awful, if Baker Mayfield has any mobility, which, you know, you can debate on that. And then the other one is the Packers, right? So Aaron Rodgers was more refusing to be mobile. And now they're going to Jordan Love, who might have a little bit more dynamic,

you know, running around the pocket or running outside the pocket. So those are two teams where I'm hesitating to have a strong opinion to the negative on because of that dynamic. Yeah, Baker, I don't know about Baker's mobility. I know that Baker fails to read the second and third read and then runs out to the right often.

So that looks like mobility, but I don't know that it's necessarily, but again, that's also better to your point, to be fair, better than what Tom Brady could do in that situation, right? He would drill it down to someone's ankles, you know, just to kind of, you know, move down. So it's a, it's a fair point. I wonder how many times someone needs to make a compilation of the Baker Mayfield rollout to his right unnecessarily, and then just chucks the ball away. Like, I don't, I mean, 25, 30 times a season. If he plays the whole year, I mean,

it's like, he can throw it so far out of bounds. He does. But yeah, to your point, he is certainly more mobile than, you know, 45 year old Tom Brady.

So it's definitely something they look for. Also, Patrick chiming in here. Good luck topping my Matt rule coach of the year futures. Uh, may those rest in peace. Matt rule is a donkey. That's an unfortunate one. You were a Panthers guyures. May those rest in peace. Matt Rule is a donkey. That's an unfortunate one.

You were a Panthers guy, though, Noonan. Yeah. You know, I like the Panthers over. And that almost hit, you know, that hit came in. It was a pretty decent year. So I'll be honest. Like, you know, I did pretty well in this market. But that's not going to sound like the case when I lead with this one. And I just got to get it out to start because it's worse than Patrick's Matt rule coach

of the year. Even the guy lost his job, but it turns out that when you have Andy Reid and you have Patrick Mahomes, it really doesn't matter what else is going on there. Uh, chiefs under 10 and a half wins, uh, is not a good look. Uh, I wasn't alone. I was some leans on the team. We wins is not a good look. I wasn't alone. There were some leans on the team. We did the AFC West podcast. It was a lean of some of my peers on the show.

Though I was more strong in it, I thought that the defense was going to be a real issue. Turns out they absolutely nailed the draft as well. They had massive contributions from first-year guys last year. Often the secondary secondary too. I'm really excited about the Chiefs this year. Those guys can perform that way in year one. What's going to happen in year two?

Again, the loss of Tyreek Hill, this kind of like band and misfit toys at the wide receiver position, it was enough. Patrick Mahomes is a talent elevator. We were worried to also the tail end of 2021, the performance of Travis Kelsey looked like maybe he was falling off a little bit, not the case whatsoever. And they absolutely, you know, again, Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the league and quarterback matters more than anything.

And he elevated everyone around him and will probably continue to do so this year. And the defense is actually now pretty good. And they added some more talent in this draft. And I'm actually really bullish. I think even 11 and a half on the Chiefs over this year is probably the right way to play it. And even though you're laying some juice there, that would be my lean. But yeah, go ahead, Clark.

Chiefs under 10 and a half. I mean, I'm a Chiefs fan and I am you know the biggest mahomes stand in the world right um so last last season was very satisfying for me i i think you just don't bet against mahomes like if you don't like the over then don't play it you know that's that's the philosophy and i i've actually adopted that philosophy for years it's like if my bet is betting against the chiefs in any significant way in a meaningful game uh then i just don't i just don't play it yeah part of it too connor was being a little bit bullish in some of the other pieces and we'll get there here as well uh thinking the broncos are making a step forward

you know being bullish on the chargers um and that was part of the handicap on the chiefs yeah i mean the broncos wound up being a disaster the raiders ended up not being very good the chargers justin herbert kind of a little rib injury, and they never really kind of hit their, I think, peak of what we thought was possible. So you combine all those three factors, like coming into the year, they had like one of the hardest strength of schedules for sure. And I think Clark illuminated that in some of his research as well.

But then when six of your games tend to not be against who you thought you were going to play, basically, I mean, that's a massive shift. You know, like that's, that's significant. So I don't fully blame you. I think that, you know, had those teams panned out, we probably would have been a little bit closer,

but still like, I think the Clark's point, it's kind of one of the reasons that I hate betting against them just on a week to week basis too. It's like, I think Clark, you bet you bet lions plus seven, right?

Week one is that, that was an official, like I, I lean with you but man this is uh i don't know if that's something i want in my pocket right now and that's the thing i feel like that's the the inflated we hear that like they've been they've been poor week to week against the number and part of it i do think that there's a little bit of a public bump on the chiefs because they know the we want to lean towards mahomes because holding a ticket

against him is rather terrifying and uh it just it became pretty clear really quick that he just uh is a difference maker and it just doesn't matter so clark's point's correct it's it's it's no uh no is just a no ticket um or an over basically at this point is my lesson learned on on mahomes with andy reed here uh while travis kelsey is still in that lineup as well so uh clark back to you for your second one this is my most embarrassing one because i bet the green bay packers to win the division laying minus 170 uh which is which is not a futures bet you make unless you are extremely confident in the results and the packers weren't even close I think they were four games behind the Vikings five games it was it was ugly um I you know my theory on both the Packers and the Chiefs was that elite quarterbacks

don't drop off significantly when they lose their stud number one wide receiver it turns out it was true for Patrick Mahomes Aaron Rodgers was a completely different story. And I mean, there's not really a huge takeaway from this one other than I was just wrong. This was just a bad read on team. I mean, injuries didn't help, you know, sure the Vikings vastly outperformed their actual ability with their record. You know, the Packers, if the Vikings hadn't have had all those miraculous wins, the Packers would have been right there. But I think the lesson here is that when there's uncertainty and a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers with his sort of weird quirks and, you know, insistence on passing to certain guys is going into a season with a bunch of rookies at receiver. That is uncertainty. And when you have uncertainty, you don't want to be betting into high VIG lines. You don't want to be overly confident because this game involves so much

variance. It's very, very fragile. So you want to be making anti-fragile bets. And this was the opposite of that. And so that was my mistake. And that was something that I'm going to be taking with me in the future is laying a lot of juice is something I'm rarely ever going to do. And if I do, it's got to be a situation with much less uncertainty than was presented here. Connor, any thoughts on the Packers? Yeah, I think that's a great takeaway though. Just in general, like as a blind, like futures, you know, mantra there, if you're going to lay juice, like you have to feel like, you know, minus 170 needs to be like minus 300 in your book. You know what I mean? Like, and the, and there needs to be stability. Like, so even if like your, your handicap is like, okay, well, assuming everything is correct, you know, like which should be minus 300. I think

that assumption that everything, you know, is going to stay the same is not always correct. So that's like the thing that we're, like you said, there's a lot of volatility, a lot of variance to that. So that's, it's a tough one. I mean, I, I would have thought so too, but I think that I was a little bit more bullish on the Vikings, you know, coming into last year. I think we played some over eight and a half early in the off season, something like that closed around nine and a half. But you know,

a lot of that, I didn't think that they'd ever win like 13 games, 14 games, something like that. So yeah, I laid minus one Oh five on Vikings to make the playoffs, but it didn't really have a play on Packers. Cause we felt that there

was you know more volatility in the range of outcomes and yeah that's definitely how it played out i do we were kind of anti this lion's push a little bit thought that kind of was getting away from us um and thought that the vikings became a little bit underrated but yeah they obviously were a unique case in terms of of how that plane landed uh connor again i will echo the sentiments i was piggybacking your second play as well i took a different iteration of it uh it was very evident very quickly that this was not going to work yeah this i think this actually might be my worst bet in the last like three or four years so i bet like occasionally closer to the year i'll bet a couple teams over points so like generally i talk about how you don't want to bet a player's over

because they can get injured. Obviously like a team, you know, can suffer an injury at the quarterback position, but like, you know, you're still getting the full amount of games. You're not missing an entire game. So I took the Denver Broncos over 425 total points. My rationale because in 2020 and 2021, 20, it averages out to be 25 points a game. That that's like, you out to be 25 points a game. That's like you need to be above average.

So it's like usually like 15 teams, 14 teams a year are averaging 25 points or more. 2021 or 2022, only eight teams averaged that many times. And not only did the Broncos not hit that, they scored the fewest amount of points in the league. So they weren't even average. They weren't even below average. Literally the lowest points in the league. So they weren't even average. They weren't even below average, literally the lowest points in the league. This ended up with 287. So they were like, not even close. Like in the, yeah, I was looking at this and I was doing more research and I was like, holy shit, this is the worst bet ever. It wasn't even right away. You kind of knew you're like, this is not clicking. Something's not going right here. And it never got better.

And, and not to mention this, like a lot of teams you see who finish at the bottom it's like oh their quarterback got injured no one big got injured like the quarterback was still there i mean like yeah the receiver is a little banged up but like it was just the court it was just everything was fine so they played one game with ripon they russell wilson could have scored 150 points in that game you never know they actually led the league in adjusted games lost due to injury so they did have substantial injury issues uh but like to your point the pieces that we thought were going to drive the result that you bet on were weren't really affected for the most part right like there were some on the defensive side as well some offensive line stuff uh wide receivers but yeah i mean it was russell wilson and it became evident in week one even

partially because like and i'll piggyback a slide into, I took over nine and a half wins on, on the Broncos there. I also, my next one that I'm going to take was under six wins on the Seahawks and they met in week one. And partially my issue was a Seahawks defense is awful. And we see Russell Wilson who were expecting to maybe lead an offense that could lead the league in points, couldn't do anything against Seattle right out of the gates. And it became very evident that both of those things might be a problem. And again, going back to

similar with Kansas City, turns out Seattle absolutely nailed their draft last year to be able to land bookend tackles. One of the first round one of the third rounds just doesn't happen uh they landed both you know abe lucas and charles cross like that's a fantastic draft they had some home runs on the defensive side of the ball and we were like geno smith drew lock we had no idea what it was going to be just a mess you know thinking this offensive line has kind of been garbage yeah a change at you know position or defensive coordinator like the year before they gave up a like 52 percent success rate uh against past like just awful like historically bad numbers defensively and it looked

like they added no talent their best player jamal adams is essentially like a fake linebacker that they bring into the box like They had nothing in the secondary. So, yeah, that was wrong. They're going to be good again this year. And, yeah, it's kind of like, again, I don't know what the lesson there is other than like good drafts can happen. You know, guys can, you know, get called and non-answer essentially whatever Geno Smith had said that his tagline there about

taking the job by the horns and made things happen there, but I was ready to bury Pete Carroll as being an NFL coach in this league and good for him. He got him back up off the schneid and they were a really good football team and they're going to be good again. Yeah, it's tough to predict them nailing that draft. I mean, those

guys contributed materially, even deep in like the fifth round and stuff uh but if you believe in gina then you stayed away yeah i did not and i did not say i leaned in aggressively and uh yeah that did not that did not work well it's amazing because not only were where was gino good like he did things that russell couldn't like you know like there was like just because of his size and like what they were able to do. Like he saw the middle of the field better. Like he was like in the big,

what was the first half of the season? He was like amazing. And basically every match metric, you know, it was like, he was crushing it. And so, yeah,

I don't know. It's just like one of those things that not only did I not expect him to be as good, but he was like better in some ways. Well, this showed up in my research that I did related to the Falcons bet in, in that when a team has a long time starting quarterback and they leave, we tend to think of there being a huge drop-off,

right? So Russell Wilson leaves Seattle, you know, the rebuilding, they're going to, you know, they're a total mess. Ben Roethlisberger leaves the Steelers.

They're rebuilding. They're a total mess. You know, Matt Ryan leaves the Falcons and all all those teams exceeded their win total uh because the they weren't downgrading from peak russell wilson like he had a rough year in his final year in seattle so when you're making those team adjustments from one year to the next you can't just downgrade massively you have to say well the downgrade already started. So to Geno Smith from here, and also we had a couple of games with Geno Smith in that year, and the offense by my numbers

didn't actually drop off from Russell Wilson to Geno, which is one of the reasons why I like that. And I think we just need to not overplay those downgrades when the guy that's leaving has already declined. And that happened a bunch of times last year. Yeah. That's a great call. What's your last one here, Clark? My last one isn't, I didn't actually bet it because I was afraid, but I was super bearish on the Giants. I didn't bet it because their schedule looked super easy and there was some uncertainty, but this,

this is a mistake I made with both the Vikings and the Giants. And that is underestimating what good a new coach can do for a team. In this case, I watched all of Daniel Jones' film. And he does not possess the qualities that Josh Allen possesses. And so I saw Brian Dayball going to the Giants. And I saw Mike Kafka from the Chiefs going to the Giants. And it's like, we've got a guy who worked with Patrick Mahomes and a guy who worked with Josh Allen, who's going to try to turn

Daniel Jones into that kind of quarterback, where, you know, pass heavy offenses, relying on creation by the quarterback, playing out of structure, all things that I thought would be a complete disaster for the Giants. And it turns out that they didn't do that at all. They designed a completely different offense that was tailored specifically to what Daniel Jones did well and did poorly. Giants. And it turns out that they didn't do that at all. They designed a completely different offense that was tailored specifically to what Daniel Jones did well and did poorly. They limited the opportunities where he had to create. They limited the number of options he had on each play. It was very contained, very designed, run-heavy offense. I did bet myself, I didn't post it publicly, but I did bet that Daniel Jones under rushing yards, season-long myself, I didn't post it publicly, but I did bet the Daniel Jones under rushing yards

season long prop. I don't know what the number was, but it was over by about week nine. It was a terrible bet. I thought I had injury outs. I had performance outs. Maybe he gets benched for Kyra Taylor. I had, you know, he's just not that good of a runner outs. None of that mattered, right? It basically was, unless he gets hurt, he's hitting this every time. And so my entire read on that offense was wrong. My narrow conception of what I thought Brian Dable could do with that team was wrong. And I think that's a lesson I want to take forward is like coaching changes can materially impact the way an offense runs. And you should wait to see how that plays out before you make any long-term futures projections and bets based on that i mean there was some legitimate talk though i mean i guess not legitimate but you know it was july it seemed legitimate about tyrod taylor potentially starting because daniel

jones was having some like rough days like there was like a week straight where it was like you know daniel jones playing terrible from like every beat reporter and then the giants were kind of like oh well you know we're not committed to daniel. If Tyrod's playing better, we'll play him. So obviously the bet at that point, you're thinking, okay, well, I have an out for maybe he doesn't even start, you know, like all he does do is play a snap. And I think that something switched. And from then on out, like the reports became, I think, average or like, you know, pretty much normal. So it's I don't necessarily blame you for that one. But yeah, I think his line was was like 350, 375.

And he wound up with around 700 on the year. So his line this year is five 50. And so literally every time I opened my like open bets, it was like the first one, it was like under 370 rushing yards. And he was already at like 600. I'm like, just get rid of this thing, please. Hopefully you made up for it a little bit in season. There were some opportunities there for you to capture some, uh, Danielones overs once it became clear that he was the guy and was a willing and able runner um i was happy that it worked out he was like my most owned quarterback

in best ball i was drinking a little bit of the early season kool-aid uh and that worked out pretty well connor we're also staying in the prop streets for some of yours as well here what do you got for us yeah it's time to pour one out for the hom streets for some of yours as well here. What do you got for us? Yeah, it's time to pour one out for the homies. You know, got a couple here that are really rough. So obviously, Allen Robinson, I bet some alternate overs on him. And I'm glad that I did take alternate. My theory was right that he had a pretty wide range of outcomes, but that wide range of outcomes was that he was horrible.

We pretty much knew by halftime of the first game when he saw like one target wasn't getting open. We knew it was horrible. We pretty much knew by halftime of the first game when he saw like one target wasn't getting open. We knew it was over. So that was kind of dust pretty much right away. Finished with a pretty terrible season. He looks just to be cooked at this point. I don't know. I wasn't really impressed with him.

Chase Edmonds, we took a couple of – we didn't take any season-long props on him, but I was pretty bullish on him in fantasy. Thought that he had a good chance of playing a lot. The offense would be good, which we were correct about. We knew that one of the running backs would be okay on a week-to-week basis. Also correct. Turns out Chase Edmonds was the worst running back in the league by most metrics. So that sucks. I thought that he was a little bit better than that. That hurt. And then my last one here, bet Brian Robinson 80-1 to win rookie of the Year.

Next week, got jumped, got shot. I mean, that's tough. Then he comes back and plays, and it turns out he's just a guy. They love him because he gets a lot of carries. He's able to kind of take the workload, but I don't think anyone thinks he's really good. He's just kind of there, sees a lot of work.

I'd say he's fine. 80-1, I don't think it was terrible, but obviously the run out on that with literally the next week of him getting shot was an unbelievable beat i would say and thank god he's okay clear clarify thank god yeah yeah that's uh that was that was tough you get in the mix though towards the tail end of the year like it was it was it came back we had uh heartbeats in that one a little bit. Yeah, I mean, definition of losing closing line value right there. I think he closed like 20 to 1. So I got like, what, 60 points of closing line value, baby.

Let's go. Feed your wife a nice steak dinner with that, hopefully. Line to finish kind of goes back to a little bit what we talked about last week when we had jack miller on is just like even if you feel like you have a massive edge or are picking off a bad line it's really hard to go over in a season-long prop there are so many outs and i took an over on cooper cup 1300 and a half receiving yards uh he's coming off of a 1900 and change receiving yard season the year before he had 813 receiving yards through eight games so we are trending nicely here but it's a season-long prop and part of the out is not performance-based it's injury-based uh the offensive line collapsed

they had cluster injuries and he went down with an injury and there were talk that he could come back. There were no rush to rush him back for a team that, you know, wasn't even rushing the quarterback back. They, you know, brought Baker Mayfield in. There was no use in bringing Cooper cut back to salvage whatever was left of that season. So again, we were on pace to crush it. You know, that pace again, we were, they'd had a winner in week 14,

but because of injuries, you know, the handicap could have been correct. Our projection was trending to be the right number. But again, this is kind of the nature of season long props and why you should really, really, really lean heavy. You know, I'm guilty of it. I will lean definitely more so than Connor on overs in season. Cause I feel like you could find matchups and advantages and I should probably continue to find ways to lean under even more so in season man season-long props it's really hard in a very tough cell to buy overs um again knowing that you need full health and you know instances like this

peak performance as well the there was such a sweaty over that we hit on Adam Thielen we've had over 700 receiving yards he played every single game and went over by like 50 yards. It was like the last two weeks he got the over. I mean, in hindsight, like that's not even a good, it was a bad bet. Like in hindsight, like we won, but I'm like thinking about it. I'm like, dude, terrible, terrible decision. He was just washed. He can't get open.

I mean, like, oh yeah. If you grossed me out, but I'm glad we cashed it at least. Yeah. It's just, there's just so many ways it can out, but I'm glad we cashed it at least. Yeah. It's just, there's just so many ways it can go. And like I said, we had the right process here. Again, I think our projection was 1600. So we were looking for building in some regression off of a historic season. But again, like the, knowing the competition was garbage Clark, it was, it seemed like

a really good spot and it seemed like it was happening. But again, I don't know that you don't dial too much into the prop uh market in in preseason or in season but again i feel like this is driving this home for me on the underside i don't know about you yeah yeah i mean it's tough right because the the sort of injury risk is baked into the price so it's always going to be a little bit lower than your full game projection um and so that kind of has to be for me it's like there has to be a performance-based angle as well as the other angles otherwise you get what i got with daniel jones where it's like yeah he's going over every time he doesn't get hurt um also i want to shout out to patrick in the chat he he mentioned that the when we were talking about the packers not not laying a bunch

of juice uh they're actually a good bet this year because of the uncertainty with love. And I totally agree with that. I think that division is wide open. There was a five to one on DraftKings available, you know, as recently as last week. I haven't checked it this week, but yeah, I think that's a good look. Yeah. We're running into that a little bit here with like the Jaguars, where I feel like the Jaguars are now the Colts of last year,

where there's this massive consensus that the Jaguars are the best team in that division. The other three teams are all kind of middling. They're dealing with multiple rookie quarterbacks. And, um, you know, I think the Jaguars are the right side, but now like the wind total number is chasing out to a number that's a little bit difficult to swallow in terms of laying the juice. Um, yeah, your schedule is brutal. It yeah there's this is you got to look for these in moving forward right taking these lessons and pushing them through the 2023 yeah if you got the minus 120 on the jags division when it opened then i think that's a great bet yeah now it's it's it's too it's too steep yeah yeah i mean they're gonna lose some

games they shouldn't like there's enough holes on their roster that i mean trevor i think trevor lawrence is awesome he's the i would say the the biggest differentiator between like kind of like the colts of like just being what we thought to be a good team of last year versus like this year where the jacks are basically just trevor lawrence and then i mean they have some guys but like you know they still have plenty of holes so i think that's the difference but i mean it still lends to like you can't just rely on him to win every single game you know what i mean like but they can beat anyone too i I think that they can, they are very capable of beating almost anyone in the league on a one game

basis. Yeah. Just like they beat the Colts when the Colts were a playoff team and they were a three win team. Like things can reverse, right? Yeah. Good lessons.

So again, you know, we didn't listen last week's episode again, YouTube or the podcast feed. You can check out what we've talked about uh jack miller there vcr last week we each gave out a lean for a prop and we mostly talked about the process of props uh both in season and season long i think that's a good uh evergreen listen for folks to go back to so good stuff here gentlemen appreciate that as always again you want to you know got to look back in the the process and be able to really evaluate.

And I think that that's something that Clark's really, I think, at least personally, it helped me with moving forward and hopefully can help you as listeners to make notes, track everything, understand the why, you know, Connor and I've talked about this offline a lot. You know, there are other sites out here that are in the pick giving space and don't do anything in terms of letting you know the why behind the pick. That's okay. If you can win and prove that model over time,

I think that that's fine. And it's up to you as the consumer, if that's something that you're comfortable with. I think part of what we do, and I take pride in it of what we do as a team, whether it's a prop or a team level bet, we're sharing the why in great detail as to why we are landing on that number. And that gives you the option as the customer to tail or to add your own insight and be like, I disagree with that there. And I'm not going to

blindly tail that line. So hopefully that is something that you find valuable and something that I think that our current subscribers do find valuable and something that I think that our current subscribers do find valuable and that we'll continue to do because I think it's really important to understand the why and how we landed there versus just like, hey, it's a hunch. I like this number. You know, everyone else sucks. So, I gotta bet the Jags like take it. Uh like just not not gonna be how we do business here at four for four. So, subscribe, rate

review, all those things. We'll be back again in this space next week. So, for Connor and Clark, I'm Ryan. Thanks, everyone. Yeah!