Move The Line - The Ultimate Championship Round Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: January 22, 2025

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Championship Round! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Championship Round betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. Ryan Noonan joins here for conference championship weekend as always by my friend Connor Allen. What's going on buddy? Yeah, not too much. Got a couple of things pretty right. I think in the last round got a couple of things very, very wrong in the last round. So yeah, it was it was an interesting week uh i think roughly broke even maybe it was down like a unit or so um but it's

okay we got some room to give back after how good of a season it was so excited for this week though two pretty awesome games and uh should be fun yeah crazy we i mean think about last time we and met to do shows even, even Friday. Since then, one of the teams we definitely, I think we expected to be here, has lost both of their coordinators. And they've now taken head coaching jobs. How much things can change so quickly in this world. But shout out to the Commanders.

Insane, insane game. I feel like that first half was just like i don't know maybe one of the most entertaining hassle football that we've had all season it was whatever that like i forget what the exact phrase is like the why like so you could snort cocaine and jump on an airplane in the back whatever that is that was that first half of that football game was wild. It reminded me of like, uh, the like Falcons first half before, when they had Kyle Shannon, his offensive coordinator, um, you know, like back in the Matt Ryan MVP days, you know, all that stuff, they would just like light up the board.

It was like, there was like 20 something points in the first half, um, every week. And it was just like wild. Um, I mean, it detroit's attrition on defense just came to finally came to fruition we're like how are they going to put it together each week and they kept finding a way to do it and we talked about on the show we're like you know there's going to be a lot of big plays i'm just not sure they can be consistent they were consistent and there was big plays so um shout out to jayden daniels definitely did not expect

him to be this good right off the bat. And he's, he's awesome. Awesome. They were 150 to one in preseason to doing the title. And here they are alive down to the final four, which is absolutely bonkers. I think the other three teams still alive. If you were to make a really short list to start the year, these three are all probably in your, like your top five or top six.

So not super surprising there. But again, all probably in your top five or top six. So not super surprising there. But again, it's just getting hot at the right time. And we'll talk through some of those here. Before we do, I want to remind folks, be a pal. Subscribe. Take 30 seconds. Review the show as well. Those things help us keep these shows free.

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Really cheap right now. Check it out. If you have any questions, let us know a great place for you to do any of your football speculation next season. We kind of continue though. So, you know, we'll take a little bit of break a week or two typically after the Superbowl, but then we'll jump right into some of the off season stuff. I mean,

obviously the coaching carousel is already moving in place, start looking at the draft and all those different things. So jump in and come hang out with us is best way to do it. We appreciate all the support um move line episode one there are two every week prop drop still coming all the way through two more episodes gets a little bit thinner at this time of year but we'll get a little bit uh you know maybe we'll go off the board you need into some different props not obviously just player props we get into some of these divisional matchups and super bowl Bowl because obviously the board gets a little thin,

especially if we're keeping stuff live for the Friday shows. But come back. It is 3 p.m. Eastern on Friday. Prop drop, Connor, myself, and Hyslop. So, all right, buddy. Let's jump into the first one here. We have, again, a couple of rematches. One, obviously, a divisional match.

They played twice. Both these teams actually met in Week 11, which is interesting. Commanders on the road in Philly. You've had some movement here. Obviously, some questions around the health and, I guess, not whether he's going to play or not, but really how healthy Jalen Hurts is. We're looking basically right now at six, some six-and-a-halves out there in the marketplace, 47 and a half as well.

What are your thoughts on Commanders and Eagles? Yeah, it's opened up at four and a half, now up to six, six and a half in some spots, which is pretty interesting. My initial inclination was kind of some of the same in the market. I thought four and a half, wow, it's pretty short. You know, this Commander's run just kind of has to come to an end here sooner than later. They just don't have enough pieces. They're not well-rounded enough, but then I kind of dove a little further and I'm like, well, you know, Jalen hurts is a bit banged up. He's not probably not going to be quite as mobile. Um, and I mean, they did a decent job selling out to stop the run for pieces of, of their last two meetings. Now say one ended up

with 146, 150 rushing yards. But again, those two came on like two just like are mostly massive runs. And so I think it's going to be really interesting. I think we're going to see the commanders try and load the box. They did periodically. That doesn't always work. We saw the Rams try and load the box last week. I mean, Saquon ran for 200 because it's if you don't fill the holes or if Saquon,

you know, cuts one back, you know, there's no one in the second level basically to stop him. So like, you know, yeah, there might be more three yard runs, two yard runs, four yard runs, and then he might just hit you for 75 or 60. I like, I really struggle with this game because I think that the Eagles, interestingly enough, came out passing the ball against them last time, which was kind of weird. It was with before Jalen Hurts got injured. And I think it was week 16 or so five of their first six first downs. They were,

were dropbacks before he got injured. So I like, I wouldn't be surprised to see the commanders, like kind of the chess match that we see from these coaches of like, okay, well, if you're going to load the box, we're just going to come out and do like quick hitters to like aj brown vance smith goddard has played

incredibly well since returning from injury so on the offense there like that's kind of i expect them to do it like come out and try and like go against them unless washington's letting them run which i i just can't fathom them like not trying to have at least seven to eight in the box every single snap any any thoughts on the eagles like offense versus commander's defense from from you yeah i think that's kind of how they approached last week too it felt like a little bit of you know the first 15 scripted felt more pass heavy early at least heavier than i was expecting them to be um that's probably to just want to soften up that front a little bit show a willingness to pass it is something they can do it just has been just kind of neutered of late you know these really low passing numbers and aj brown and devonta smith

basically doing nothing and getting by because uh it just was this insane efficiency from from saquon to your point these home runs from saquon uh just really hard to to kind of game plan against because like you said just takes one and all of and all of a sudden it's a game breaker. So it's the pressure. I'm interested to see what happens here from a pressure standpoint. Obviously the Rams have done a great job all season getting home with their young front. And, you know, the offensive line for Philadelphia is one of the best

in the league that had a ton of trouble. Like each of the starting offensive linemen gave up at least four pressures and a sack last week against the Rams. And that's kind of bonkers. Like it's, you know, not something that the commanders do super well, but Quinn does a really good job at like scheming things up. They do blitz a lot from the second level. I believe both Frankie Louvu and Bobby Wagner are like one in two in linebacker

blitz rate. Like Levante David is right there too from, you know, from Tampa Bay, but like they, they love to send from the second level. So, you know, we've seen Hertz take a ton of sacks this year as pressure to sacrate is way up. Part of that is I think is not super healthy, you know, ind've seen Hurts take a ton of sacks this year. His pressure to sack rate is way up. Part of that is, I think, is not super healthy, you know, indecisive. So what do they do in getting the ball out quickly? That's going to have a massive impact for this game as well. I think the same thing can be said on the other side. It's really how do, you know, how does Jane Daniels, who's been fantastic against pressure this season, great against the Blitz,

low pressure to sack rate, which has been, I think, the one thing that I've been the most surprised at him coming in this year because it was such a problem for him last year. Again, just see that sometimes these really athletic college guys that just hold on to the ball a little bit too long because hero ball can work. And, you know, you have talented receivers on the outside like you had with neighbors. And BTJ holding on the ball a little bit longer is a pretty good option.

So he's been able to get the ball out really quick in that first meeting. He had his lowest ADOT of the year in that meeting against Philadelphia, really trying to get the ball out quickly. So is that another part of their game plan? How do they handle it? So I think the pressure part is, is massive for both these teams. So yeah, it's, I mean, how healthy do you think hurts is, do you think it's just a matter of struggling?

He's been dinged up a little bit or you think it's really going to impact play? Yeah, I would think maybe it just impacts like the amount of designed runs. Like, you know, it's like, that's probably what it mostly impacts. Maybe he's not scrambling as much a little bit either, but like, again, the game's on the line I think that he's gonna if he needs a scoot he'll scoot I just don't think it's gonna be like maybe their first option to do um you know so I don't know I think that's kind of interesting also you

brought up a good point with Jaden Daniels under pressure and like his ADOT against the Eagles in two games 5.9 against all other teams it was 7.9 and I noticed that too I went back and watched some of the game especially the fourth quarter when they kind of had that, it was 7.9. And I noticed that too. I went back and watched some of the game, especially the fourth quarter when they kind of had that comeback. It was a lot of like, I mean, his eyes just didn't go outside that much. It was like the only time it was outside is if he saw a certain type of coverage pre-snap where he was just like, oh, I'm going to just bomb it basically. It was a lot of like over the middle stuff.

So I think it's probably a lot of, you know, checkdowns, a lot of dump offs, which is okay. I mean, he was moving the sticks. That's fine. It's just like, you know, styldowns, a lot of dump offs, which is okay. I mean, he was moving the sticks. That's fine. It's just like, you know, stylistically, it's just going to be lower a dot stuff. A pretty interesting note here as well. Three quarters, first three quarters in both matchups, 56% completion rate, six yards per attempt, two touchdowns and a pick fourth quarter.

Those matchups 73 and a half percent completion rate, 6.7 yards per attempt with four touchdowns, two picks, like just first three quarters look terrible look terrible fourth quarter turn it up in both matchups second one they obviously won first one they got a touchdown at the end like kind of make the score look better but it was i mean eagles dominated them in the end um you know by the end of the game so it's for me it's like if i don't know like i I, I, and again, initially I almost wanted the Philly minus four and a half. And I was like, you know what, they're going to blow them out. Um, now I almost think like commanders plus six and a half is kind of interesting. Like I there's also the other factor of like, what if something crazy happens? Like we talk about every week with Lamar. I mean,

like, what if, I don't know, the commanders get a kick return touchdown or like hit an 80 yard bomb first play and the Eagles like are down 10, zero, you know, the Commanders get a kick return touchdown or, like, hit an 80-yard bomb first play, and the Eagles, like, are down 10-0, you know, and then in the first quarter? I mean, it's not likely, but it's certainly possible. Like, can Jalen Hurts just man up and pass their way back or they just keep running the ball? Like, I don't know. I have serious questions about that, but I don't know.

TBD. Yeah, that's the thing is, like, we don't know what the game plan is going to be, but I think from the commander's point of view, they've kind of seen both extremes from how Philly is going to scheme against them. Because in the first time that they met, they only blitzed Daniels on 12% of his drawbacks. It was the lowest blitz rate that they faced all season long. The second they blitzed at 36%, it was the second highest blitz rate that the Eagles dialed up all season

long. So they definitely were intentional in the second game about doing something than they did the first game. So what did they decide was the best format? You'd have to think the first one seemed to work better. They didn't get, you know, part of that too, that first game, we're still dealing with a little bit of i think injury

from his ribs actually didn't have a lot of success running didn't run quite as much so it's really hard to kind of figure out was that scheme and how philly played him or was he still not really 100 because i think we've just seen a very different looking jane daniels here once we've got kind of out of the middle of the season so scheme or health that's kind of it too it makes it really hard so now that we've kind of clicked out to six six and a half i'm kind of with you you know four and a half probably did feel a little bit light even though chances of it landing in the middle there is pretty small right that's not a typical spot for where scores come into play so yeah i mean i think just sometimes just want something different i would love to this story to continue um so not a you

know a great way to handicap football games but this continues to cook out i think it probably does too i don't know if we touch seven but i think you probably see six six and a half as kind of you know holding steady if we get better jalen hurts news as this gets closer to kick yeah also last note for me sam cosby right guard out um obviously matters against the eagles interior you know pass rush and just in general like running the ball like i it's i'm really just see what happens there i think that could be a major problem for them as well um and i think could be a potential driving factor if for some reason the commanders get blown out just like they can't like he's just under pressure basically every play so shaylen carter was awesome yeah

so good um you know just for him to finally yeah he just he was awesome so yeah that could be a problem obviously um you could see more flush outs for for daniels too so maybe it's a an attempts thing on jane daniels here so all right the next one another rematch from week 11 bills won the first one 30 to 21 uh we are out here now kansas city between one and a half and two total basically 47 and a half across the board. I'm so sick and tired of the, the ref nonsense, Connor. I,

it drives me absolutely insane. I, there might be something to it. I have no idea, but I, as a Patriots fan, I felt like going through that myself, I feel like it massively discredits what we're actually watching.

And I just, I, part of me is just like, I hate that part of it for, for what we're watching the greatness. Now, this is a, you know, Bill's team that defense is struggling. They're, I think, you know, healthier than they were healthier than even they were last time that these two teams met. Kansas City also talked about it last week week just kind of a different team now whether they kind of have fallen into peace with some of the receivers defense back with you know jaylen watson coming back there too uh it's going to be a great matchup i don't have a great handicap lean uh i kind of agree with the sentiment that we're kind of tired of the chiefs and we want something new i just don't think like the league is in on rigging the

chiefs winning games but i don't know what do you think yeah i get uh every week i get texts from my father-in-law about like these random things but mostly about the bears but then i got one this week or last week is like i'm done watching this shit like the refs are just throwing flags every time homes get touched which i think i think there's a little bit of truth to it but it's like obviously it's just when when they're when you're so good and you have a target on your back, everything that goes your way is, you know, dramatized and, you know, like blown up into upper portion. So like, I don't know. I mean, I think maybe a little bit, but like, you know, I'm not definitely not conspiracy theorists or anything. Like it's probably not any more than normal. It's just

because of our biases of like, why does this team always good you know like and anytime he gets pushed out of bounds which is illegal like he gets a flag so it's like you know that's that makes sense but i'm gonna go with a pretty gross player i mean you know shocker for me i like the under in this game it sounds crazy under 47 and a half i thought this was going to be like 45 40 45 and a half kind of made more sense to me bill's main weakness defensively is their run defense kansas city just like can't run the ball i mean isaiah pacheco is terrible he is has not recovered from his injury he's like playing less and less kareem hundas has been steady steadily bad like he's like averaging you know 3.8 3.9 yards per carry pacheco is like like 3.5, 3.25.

He can't do anything. Neither of them can do much, but they've reduced Pacheco's role each week and increased Kareem Hunt's, but they just know at least what they're going to get, which is four yards of cloud of dust from Kareem Hunt. With Pacheco, it's even less. So I don't think they can really exploit that weakness. And on the other side here, this Kansas City defense,

Jalen Watson back, as you mentioned, like basically fully healthy. The Bills, I think can exploit them a little bit over the middle, but like they just keep rotating like Matt Collins, Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper on the outside. And like those guys are just going to do nothing basically when they're on the outside. So it's just going to be all over the middle. It's basically going to be up to Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Curtis Samuel to exploit the chiefs defense. And the chiefs run defense has been awesome all year, but they have played not as well lately.

So I think that's kind of an interesting point. Something I've been struggling with. I don't know if you have a, like a leaner handicap on that because they let up a lot of yards and we're not that good against Pittsburgh. They were not that good last week against Joe Mixon either. And then now they get James Cook and the Bills, who have been running the ball really, really well.

I don't know. Any thoughts on that? Like, I've been struggling with that a lot because I think that there's some value on either an over and under on James Cook or that whole thing, but I just don't know where to go with it. I think it bodes well for your lean on the total, right, as well. Just the pace of play, them running the ball a lot, all those different things.

Yeah. I haven't dug into it. I will, though, now because I think you make a good point. But they have struggled at least definitely where they were at the beginning of the year. It was really, really, really difficult to run on them. So, yeah, they're going to have to be – it's going to be bully ball over the middle.

It's going to be a lot of Josh, as it was last week, as it is every week that Buffalo takes the field. Because I do agree with you, the rotation of just kind of jags on the outside isn't really enough for anyone to kind of separate there. So, yeah, Patrick won rushing touchdown each quarter. All right, 36-1. I mean, worse bets. Yeah one I mean I mean worse bets Yeah

That bad like I mean you get You're good for one from Josh at least In one quarter You know you well I don't know Mahomes I mean I don't Mahomes anytime Touchdown was always live in the playoffs So I don't know Yeah cream cream and you know James

Cook can easily get one in there too so I don't know it's not Kareem, Kareem and, you know, James Cook can easily get one in there too. So I don't know. It's not that bad. 36 to one. I've definitely made worse bets. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I'll be interested to see if we get some, like, you know, if the weather's okay, the day of, and we get some good reports, people like to cheer for points the day of, you know, we're sitting really on some key numbers total wise. So we start to cook out a little bit. I'm with you.

I think we're probably under as probably a pretty good look here. So just with the expected run, short, efficient passing game from the Chiefs. Christian Benford injury on Buffalo's side is something we really need to watch. Late concussion in that game. I mean, he's been fantastic this year. Without him on the outside is going to be interesting um taylor rapp dinged up as well with a hip injury i think rap probably plays uh they have a cole bishop rookie from utah they drafted to i think they probably wanted him

and expected him to start the season but um tamar hamlin's been pretty good. And, but coverage has not been a strong suit for Cole Bishop yet in his early career. Don't necessarily want him playing, uh, you know, a hundred percent of the snaps against Patrick Mahomes in a playoff game in the back half of that defense. So we have to kind of monitor those two injuries. I think they matter for the handicap of the game for, especially to your point, if the chiefs are going to have to be pass heavy, well, what does Buffalo's defense look like without rap without benford that's that's totally a different question so yeah worth monitoring it's interesting for sure um it's we got a couple of questions here too um i guess we we talked about this uh rush one rushing touchdown and then

would you rather talk politics a little more with my father-in-law, I'll trade in a heartbeat. No, I'll pass on that. Let's get that to you, Patrick. I mean, not an easy one. Yeah, it's a package deal. I was just talking about the bad football takes. That's all I get.

But no, this game, yeah, I think under is interesting. Buffalo in a teaser above seven. All of these games have been, I think it was like four out of the five have been within four points basically. Like they just play each other close. I mean, I expect nothing less in this instance. It's going to be a close kind of, I think more of a grinded out game and just a lot of stops, you know, but I don't know. I mean, we will, we'll see.

It's I'll probably have a lot of props. I already have two that I released on the game. Hopefully more to come. Yeah. A few things I definitely will release that I'm waiting for some other outs for that. I'm excited on the defensive side. I think could be interesting.

Patrick talking about running it back with Eagles rushing total over this week. So, you know, play that we had last week with Detroit rushing team total over this week so you know play that we had last week with detroit rushing team total over i think it's also pretty viable here for for guess what the number is that yeah i looked well because after you said that 158 and a half 180 178 sorry i mean it's because of Hertz. That's why. So they're adding 30, which I actually don't like.

I don't like it because I don't think Hertz is that mobile. So I'm almost more interested in taking Hertz rushing attempts unders or rushing yards unders, which is, I don't know, but the yards are tough. I mean, it's only at 30. So I don't know if I want to bite that. But attempts maybe. If he was full health, I think the over would be a smash. But because we don't know, it's not.

I mean, the ran for over, it was like 220 and 210, I think, in their two games combined against him. Yeah. I think when I had like 99 in the first quarter last game. I want to go back to the well if we can get hopefully another book to get involved in the uh total punts in the game because i'll take under six and a half under five and a half plus money we only had two punts in that uh lions you know we got one in the first drive from the lions uh that was two for the entire game so i i got a text from steve you know, a friend of the show.

He was at DraftKings on Saturday and he's like, dude, I'm just loading the kiosk with, you know, a thousand dollars to bet under six and a half punts. He's like, I love this reasoning or whatever. First drive three and out punt. He's like sweating. He's like, what's going on here? He's like, holy shit.

Like I fucked up. Of course, one other punt the rest of the game. It was like, you know, got home easily. But he said people were looking at him like what is this guy doing like why is he betting under six and a half punts for as much as the kiosk will give him uh so uh that i mean that's the way to do it because no one else was taking more than you know 20 bucks on it but um that's why the kiosk exists for people like us you know yeah yeah i have not found them yet and again like i said i hope they become available some some place other than draft kings um you know yeah yeah i have not found them yet and again like i said i hope they become available some of some place other than draft kings um you know we see unique markets like that emerge

more as we get closer to uh the super bowl and they try to get some stuff out there so yeah we're looking for that but uh you have the you know you're on the eagles i had a chiefs lions super bowl chiefs are still involved. I had the lions winning. I think you had an Eagles chiefs Superbowl, so you could still land the plane here, I think. Yeah, I think so actually. Yeah, I did. I had a rematch of before. I mean, it'd be pretty awesome. I feel like, I think I have a ticket somewhere of the exact matchup.

I bet everything that I talk about on the show somewhere, I i just gotta figure out which book or which out i bet it on um but i i don't know like i i feel less good about this this eagles team than i think that i did initially because almost all my handicap was based around oh like they're gonna just clean their schedule up and play better defense their Their defense is better, but like their passing game just hasn't looked good. And I don't even know months like there, I don't think there's ever been a point where I'm like, Oh, this team can easily just pass their way.

If some shit goes sideways or, you know, a team just puts eight in the box, nine in the box the entire time, like they can do it. No problem. Jalen hurts. Doesn't look that good.

AJ Brown's, you know, not like has been not playing all that well either he should have caught that one in the end i thought that was on him people were saying was on hurts i thought it was on him he just kind of dropped it get you the hands you're gonna catch it i kind of agree and and devonta smith has just been like a five yard a dot merchant like literally just catching like little the only one who's been good has been dallas goddard like he's like he's like you's a man amongst boys out there.

Everyone else is playing like a bunch of losers. I don't know. I don't have much confidence in him right now as much as I should, but I'm excited for him. Yeah. Brian in the chat, commies, bills, money line parlay. I mean, not super stoked about that, but I would love to watch that game.

I would love to watch that game i would love to watch that game so um i don't hate uh putting a couple bucks on you want to root for so i'm gonna be in vegas this weekend lewis our you know our friend lewis is loves the bills he wants to bet the bills i don't really have too much to take on the side i might just bet the bills because i want them to win just because like i think they're fun I would love to see Josh Allen in the Super Bowl. The Eagles-Bills Super Bowl would be awesome. I mean, if you had to choose one, are you choosing the Chiefs or the Bills?

It's so hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes. Coming into the playoffs, I thought we were looking at, unfortunately, another Chiefs win. Nothing really makes me think that that's changed. I think we saw it, what you were calling last week, the unveiling of Travis Kelsey, de-bubble-wrapped and sent out to go close.

So, yeah, I mean, I think it's probably the Chiefs, man. And I want to be wrong. I really do. Bills, like Josh Allen, is so fun to watch so easy to root for yeah i really wanted those two fan bases of detroit and buffalo to get a shot uh they've been really tough for one of them to lose but i would love to see the opportunity for that to happen i mean washington has got a great history you know multiple super world championships uh you know most right before you were born. But other than that, that's the last time they were in the playoffs or have done anything.

So it's also a fan base for most of the last 30 years has been suffering as well. So it'd be interesting to see. I mean, actually, the last time that the Washington football team was in the Super Bowl, it was against the Bills, I'm pretty sure. So we'll love to see that come back and get the rematch. But I definitely don't want to put money down against Patrick Mahomes. That's for sure.

Yeah, that's fair. So, all right, buddy. Enjoy Vegas. We'll be back from Vegas on Friday for Prop Drop. Again, come back on Friday, 3 p.m. Eastern. We'll be joined by High Slot to talk props and some more shenanigans that I'm sure will follow. So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time.

Thanks, everybody.