Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Championship Week NFL BETTING GUIDE: Best BETS, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: January 24, 2024

Unleash your betting potential with our ULTIMATE Championship Week NFL BETTING GUIDE! Dive into expert insights on the best BETS, latest Odds, and accurate Predictions for an exciting NFL Divisional Round week. Featuring a special focus on the San Francisco 49ers, this is your go-to source for smart, informed NFL betting picks and strategies. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the game, get ready to amplify your NFL betting experience. Don't miss out on valuable tips and analysis.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan  Follow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  / sharpclarkenfl  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome move the line presented by fanduel sportsbook i'm ryan newton joined here as always by my friends to talk size and totals for Championship Sunday. Connor Allen, what's going on, bud? Yeah, it's an exciting week of games here. I'm one of the last few ones with multiple games. So I don't know. It's one of those things where the more I break these games down, the less exciting I think they'll be, which is kind of sad. But I mean, I'm excited to watch them from a pure football standpoint. I just think that some people might be disappointed exciting i think they'll be which is kind of sad um but you know i i mean i'm excited to watch them from a pure football standpoint i just think some people might be disappointed uh with the style of gameplay so we'll get into that more later yeah i mean from a betting standpoint it is obviously we

are talking about size of totals they're very efficient markets when you only have two uh you know i think even when you only have like you know say 14 or 15 this is obviously one of the most efficient markets in the world. We are a couple of days into these lines, so they are very efficient. But I'm super excited to get your guys' thoughts here. And obviously donning a Chiefs jersey, Patty Mahomes here. Clark is fired up and ready to go. Joining us as always, Sharp Clark. What's up, bud?

Yeah, you're exactly right. These markets matured faster than in a typical week. And that's partly because there's only two games to analyze and partly because limits started higher and raised more aggressively quicker. I mean, I don't know what Circa is at now, but yesterday on a Tuesday, they were taking $75,000 on sides. And so that's what dictates how mature the market is. And so typically when we do this show on a Wednesday, I still feel pretty good about some of the size and totals and how, you know, we might be able

to get ahead of line movement. This is not one of those shows. These lines are very, very sharp. And so to the extent that you're betting at this point in the week on those major markets, you're doing so because either for fun or you think you have an edge that's not captured by the market, which is rare.

But I just didn't want to throw that caveat out there as we get diving into these games. Yeah, it's an important point for sure. They are is rare, but I just didn't want to throw that caveat out there as we get diving into these games. Yeah, it's an important point for sure. They are mature markets, but hey, we'll give our thoughts here. As we've been doing all season here on Wednesdays on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel, we'll still have a Super Bowl show to be determined or to figure out what that looks like and different iterations over the years in terms of the Super Bowl show. So again, subscribe to the

channel four for four bets on youtube podcast in your podcast feed wherever you listen as well typically on wednesday evening come back on friday it'll be a prop drop show uh that gets a little bit harder i think the conference championship prop drop show uh is one of the hardest ones to do because also props come out way earlier so like we're waiting for lines typically on a prop show or like, you know, some stuff that like just pop before the show. No, that will not be the case on Friday.

We'll do our best to give you some, uh, good, uh, no stale bread lines, some stuff that we are interested in there as well. Superbowl prop show obviously takes on a different look because they're, the menu is very extensive.

We typically get a little bit more here for conference championships. We just don't get like the off the wall, uhwall type of menu that we'll have for Super Bowl, but we'll be there. Again, 3 p.m. Eastern Friday, 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel as well. The betting subscription, massively discounted, $9.99 right now, 4for4.com slash plans gets you access to all that we do, again, to the end of February. So that'll get you a little bit of

mma they'll get you some nba on top of the football stuff that remains but again just to get you get your foot in the door let you see what that subscription looks like in terms of all the season-long stuff that you could possibly want all the tools i think the tools uh are a massive ad as well if you play you know season-long articles projections rankings all that stuff as well and then gets you into our discord which is where we push all the official plays as well so you can check that out on the site four four four dot com slash plants all right before we jump into the conference championship season ended last week for the texans packers bucks and bills uh we're gonna touch in depth on the teams that knock them out but before we do i want to get your guys's thoughts on whether

it's those games or i think more so in terms of like team building because like look we're we're coming up to the end of the season and i think last year connor we were looking at this the other day we took like a week or so off and then we like jumped right into uh you know off season stuff draft team building type stuff so like yeah we'll probably take a one week hiatus but like we will be back here doing shows all season long we'll start to get into more of like what are the cap situations what does the draft look like um let's you know start there i'll start with you connor in terms of any of the teams you want to touch on obviously uh you know texans and packers i think have a similar build in terms of like and maybe they found long-term answers at quarterback like there go the packers again finding another long-term answer quarterback.

Bucks are kind of maybe in a spot where they're going to do something with the quarterback and then the Bills are, what do they do? Do they kind of continue on or do they rebuild? What are your thoughts on before they got eliminated? Yeah, the Texans are a fun one because they had so much success without a very good offensive line. They were partially injured, partially just didn't have much talent. Like if they have a better offensive line and can establish a running game,

I think that unlocks a whole new level to what they want to do. Whereas like, you know, it's kind of been what they did this year was, you know, run on first down way too frequently, not have that much success. And then CJ Stroud bailed them out in second and third down. If he's not forced to bail them out on, you know, the later downs and bad situations, the cap for this offense is like, I mean, TJ Stroud, I would assume will be a very popular MVP vet next season. So I'm really excited to see what his number comes in at. And then Jordan Love in this Packers offense, I mean, they had a great streak.

They had an awesome end of the season. Count me as someone who know excited and cautiously optimistic about jordan love next season but i certainly will not be betting his mvp numbers are like chalky numbers if they're super high um it's just you know like i could see one of those things being massively inflated there and then uh the bills are bills are a tough one i mean i think they were just mostly really injured i think their defense is still fine like i you know obviously it sucks because they're losing in their win now window it becomes tougher with the cap situation but at the end of the day they still have an awesome quarterback josh allen they still have a lot of good players like you know obviously it feels like the sky is falling now but i don't think it's the end of

the world uh for the next few years yeah no i think those are all good points uh hard to not be optimistic about all things texans they have a good ton of cap space as well uh but again like part of that is like on the defensive side, they had a lot of like small deals. Like, so they're going to have to replenish the defensive side of the ball. They have a coach that I think we all buy into in terms of, you know,

being able to schematically get that team to maybe overperform again. Cause I think that's kind of what happened here down the stretch. We know the Packers, a whole narrative around and part of our optimism was around them being a young football team and the continuity that could come as they grow and mature the cap situation is a little bit different so let's see what happens there but uh you know they extended jordan love at the start of the season so they have one extra year there on his deal which i think is interesting buck's kind of in purgatory clark i'd love to get your thoughts connor kind

of skip them because i i don't know what to do with him either because it's like the division is kind of still like a weird spot we're going to be in the same spot like the magic that the saints are going to have to do to move cap money again that they do every year you're just like how do they end up fielding a team is going to be weird but now i think with what happened with baker they're probably like they probably end up signing him uh to you know some sort of hopefully team friendly deal for a year or two but that's really interesting because that might be enough to win the division but does that really pull you forward so thoughts on the bucks and any of the other teams that have left us here yeah bucks are in a tough spot team building wise because like you said the division is winnable for the foreseeable future they have a quarterback who's capable and

Baker Mayfield but he's just not ever going to be the guy that that takes you over the top the way that you know if Jordan Love hits his upside he could do it CJ Stroud I think we've already seen can do it you know Mahomes all those kind of guys Mayfield's not that guy so I think if I'm the Bucks I'm I'm thinking of team rebuilding the same way the Chiefs did where they kind of remained competitive with Alex Smith while they knew that their ceiling was capped. And then they brought in Mahomes as a project to try to, you know, eventually take over Alex Smith. And so after a year, they were comfortable putting him in there and it worked and it, you know, it's great and all that kind of stuff. I think if you, if you go the hard, the hard tank, I think there's a lot, it's like harder to dig yourself out of

that. We're seeing that with Carolina right now. You miss on the number one quarterback. You set yourself back. You're dealing with different coaches. I think the Bucs need to try to keep winning with Baker Mayfield while they under the surface build for the future. I don't know if that's drafting a quarterback late in the first round or in the second round maybe that you think is a good prospect that can develop or something like that. I think Baker is probably gonna be the starter for the bucks next year he did enough to earn it and i think the bucks are good enough of a roster even if mike evans leaves that they can continue to compete in that division they did a great job this offseason getting their cap in a manageable situation moving forward too so that was probably the best thing the bucks did and part

of why it looked like i thought coming into the season they were definitely in like proactive tank mode to kind of build for the future, but they, the division was so poor that they were able to stumble into being competitive because no one really wanted to go out and win that one. I would love to see, I'd love to see T Higgins in Houston. He's going to get the back from someone that just, that would be really nice to just kind of lean into like, Hey, look,

you did a great job last year. We all kind of questioned it on draft day with the move that they made to go two and three to give up all that equity to lock up CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. They were both fantastic. But now you're in that win now window with a rookie quarterback, like just kind of push in, figure it out.

You know, I think you can make a splash defensively, but man, T Higgins is maybe one of the better offensive weapons. That's going to be out there. That would be a fun landing spot for him. So yeah, I mean, the cautious, the optimistic, I think that division to the South is interesting with Anthony Richardson coming back, what happens to Jacksonville bouncing back. So that's maybe not going to be the you

know the crap division that we thought maybe coming into the season there's you know maybe some potential there for multiple playoff teams so all right let's get into the goods real goods all right kansas city on the road kicking off this weekend in baltimore uh it's open to three and a half in most spots was juiced towards the Chiefs, down to three briefly. Then it was bounced all the way back up to four a bit yesterday. And we're basically holding right now three and a half minus 110 in most spots. Totals held steady the entire time, basically 44 and a half. This is Lamar's first AFC title game.

Six straight for Patrick Mahomes, as we know, first on the road. I find this market to be absolutely fascinating I want to get your thoughts here first Clark um I'm not originating um but I have to think if you're relying on in-season data specifically what we saw this year on the field to build your lines and you build your model this line has to be more than three and a half right like the Ravens were a significantly better team in every aspect all season long the other side has Patrick Mahomes that's clearly baked into the market clearly why we're at this spot is it baked in enough or am I completely off base and this is three and a half based off of like uh numbers only

it's a good question and i you know i grade my teams at this point they're 100 based on this season's ratings i'm not using past year's data to inform my numbers and based on this season's ratings i still make it 3.1 for the ravens so i still i think the number is too high which i think is probably a minority position among people that do model because the difference between my data and I think what a lot of people use is sort of philosophically, most data is based on outcomes, binary outcomes, right? And so one really obvious example of this is when MVS drops that touchdown pass against Philadelphia. You know, in reality, there's no way of knowing exactly what the percentage chances of him catching that ball. You know, you can run all

kinds of models of like velocity of the ball and separation and how close it was to his chest and how likely MVS is to catch passes in certain different, whatever, all that kind of stuff. But I do know that I can get closer by guessing than I can by using the result of that play because the result of that play was 0%. There was zero for one on that play. And I think it was probably closer to about 85, 90%. But you know, whatever, whatever the percent is, my my grading system is built around trying to take the predictive elements of plays and spit that out into numbers. And based on that, over the course of the whole season, that was only one play, there's plenty of other examples. The chiefs have the most drops,

I think in the NFL, depending on what data source you use again, you know, how do you quantify a drop? There's a difference between a wide open drop and he catches it in the defender's helmet, you know, jostles it out,

or, you know, he is kind of out of his reach, but sort of within his reach, he drops all that kind of stuff. But chiefs have the most drops. They had, you know,

that obviously that offsides by Tony was huge against the Bills. They had those drops against Detroit. It's been all year. And so based on my numbers, the Chiefs actually are the number two offense in the NFL based on this year's numbers. And so I think the whole sky is falling. Chiefs offense is terrible this year. I think all that's been overblown.

And some of it was recency bias, right? Their worst offensive performance was against the Raiders late in the season. And they also had a bad game against Denver kind of in the middle of the season. But I think when, when betters are kind of skeptical about the chiefs and they have that complete dud that everyone was watching late in the season, and then they never really had a chance to kind of rectify it. They, they did, you know, they did what they could against the Bengals. They had bad red zone performance in that game, but they still covered the spread. They beat the Dolphins, but the Dolphins were banged up at linebacker and secondary. They beat the Bills, but they were

banged up at linebacker. But what I've seen is an offense that knows what it's doing and knows how to capitalize on mistakes. And so based on the entire season, based on all my metrics, I think the Chiefs offense is underrated. And that's a crazy thing to say with Patrick Mahomes, but it's true based on the market rating. So on that side of the ball, I think I have confidence in the chiefs offense, but this will be the toughest test of the entire season because the Ravens

defense is obviously very, very good. And last week I talked about how I liked the Texans prospects because the Ravens defense had thus far had its best games against well-schemed offenses, but not elite quarterbacks. And then they really shut down CJ Stroud, which is very impressive. But the thing that I noticed in watching that film was that CJ Stroud was not anticipating pressure pre-snap. He was reacting to it really, really well. Like his, his re like when the blitz comes in, he was getting rid of the ball. He was avoiding negative plays. That is a very, very difficult thing thing to do but he always seemed a little bit surprised at where the pressure was coming from and i think patrick mahomes's experience and just incredible

understanding and field vision of what's happening on every play i think that will help him against this ravens defense uh to be more successful than cj stradwell so it will be a struggle it won't be the bills game where the chiefs just roll up and down the field pretty much every drive. It's going to be tough. But I think Mahomes, you know, in that playoff level focus with an offense that I think is pretty good overall, I think has a chance. The last thing I want to point out is that while the Ravens defense

is very, very good, their run defense hasn't been all that effective. And the Chiefs have been capitalizing on the ground game with Isaiah Pacheco when he's been healthy in a way that has really helped their offense and take some of the pressure off of Mahomes. It's had a visibly noticeable impact on Mahomes' calmness in the pocket when they can run the ball. So I think that's going to be something to look out for.

If Joe Tooney doesn't play, that obviously hurts the Chiefs. But overall, I think this will be a game where the Chiefs do have some offensive success, just not quite as much as they had last week. Yes. Still waiting on the news. Torn pec sounds like a painful injury to play through, especially in the interior of the offensive line. But yeah, Connor, how about for you when the Chiefs have the ball?

Have they found something offensively? Like we've seen, like, so Clark's ratings are very generous, you know, and I would say you and he's acknowledging off market comparatively to like what a lot of mainstream like originators are making in terms of like yards per drive, points per drive, drive efficiency stuff. They're still top 10. They're like barely, they're like ninth and 10th in those metrics. They have not been like the dominant team that we've seen previously.

Mike McDonald has been awesome this season. They've dealt with a ton of injuries as well defensively like we don't know what's going on with marlon humphrey in this game for instance i think piece together a ton of like pressure from no-name guys like i've joked uh here about like kyle van nooye was doing spots on mcafee for like the first month of the. And then it's like all of a sudden getting like 70% snap rate in like playing awesome for the Ravens. So like McDonald does a lot there and they do a really good job at like piecing it together. And they're really pliable based off of whatever their opponent's doing.

But again, the other side is also Patrick Mahomes. So what are your thoughts on, you know, chiefs having the ball here and match up against the Ravens? Yeah, I think Clark brought up a good point here, specifically with the Chiefs running game

against this Ravens run defense here. So on the season, they are 15th in success rate, 13th in EPA per play, allowing 4.47 yards per carry to opposing running backs. And I think that was part of the handicap last week, but we ran into issues because one, the Texans were running the ball in the loaded boxes. So basically it was like,

they would go under center. They would do heavier sets against those sets. The Ravens are like elite allowing 3.4 yards per carry. They're 10th in success rate against out of shotgun or low, like lighter boxes. They're allowing over five yards per carry. And I think that's something that the chiefs are going to be able to do here.

So the chiefs have been running mostly in heavier sets. You know, they had a lot of success running at Buffalo with two tight ends, but that came against again, Buffalo team that had literally was starting third string linebackers by the end of the game and Miami team that had a bunch of injuries all over as well. And so I think when they're looking at it this week, they need to be spreading it out and then running against that, those looks and lighter boxes instead. And so I think that's how the chiefs will have success here because frankly, I have a lot of concerns about this passing game here. Uh, you know, at least a reasonable amount

of concerns because this Ravens defense is like an amoeba. Like they're not really high in man or zone or cover two or cover three. Like they just do a lot of different stuff schematically based on what the opponents do. And I would say if Patrick Mahomes had Tyree kill, like you can just overcome anything. Like it doesn't really matter, but you have Travis Kelsey who's been, you know, reignited to some extent again against literally the worst linebacker court

that you'll play all year in two consecutive games. And then now you're playing against good linebackers, like legit, you know, awesome linebackers at the Ravens have. And so I think that's a big step up. So I have a little bit concerns about Kelsey just magically being open and Kelsey just magically being open and looking as rejuvenated as possible. And then Rasheed Rice, I mean, he's good, don't get me wrong, but I'm just not sure he's quite

like alpha wide receiver one, breakthrough, anything that they're throwing at him good. And the rest of the guys, I mean, are, I would say arguably the worst ancillary options in the league. Like I've been down on MBS, he had his best game of the season last year or last week. Mikko Hardman played atrocious. I mean, he doesn't even belong in the field. Sky Moore is terrible and may come back. I mean, literally some of the worst options there, they just need to be their field stretchers. They run cardio. That's it. And so I'm sure they'll be able to get it done. I'm sure they'll find a way to scheme up, you know, consistent, relatively consistent chain moving stuff. But if they fall behind, you know, I worry about them like consistently catching up in that scenario offensively.

And so if they're able to stay on schedule with the run, if they're able to run consistently, I think that they'll have probably a reasonable amount of success. But I just worry that if the Ravens are able to work against that, they won't. So that's kind of my like, you know, pushback on the offense. But I think that I think they're in a reason reasonably good situation because the ravens have shown that you know teams can run the ball against them from time to time oh i like that stuff i mean the patriots want to uh to get involved here they definitely in terms of uh ancillary receivers they like to be in the team picture as far as we're seeing it's a league but i think the

monken spags matchup on the other side of the ball i think is probably one of the more interesting ones here as well the chiefs will blitz or they will not blitz necessarily in the same way or the same amount that the texans did last week they've on the season blitzed at the 12th highest rate in the league but they also send their corners um in slot corners at a top five rate. So I think we're going to see pressure for Lamar in a very different way, faster athletic blitzers, blitzers that make scrambling a little bit harder, which is obviously impactful in terms of Lamar. I want to circle back to the Texans game too,

because I feel like we had a fairly good handicap as it pertains to Houston disguising their coverage pre and post snap I think the shift that we saw from the Texans down the stretch once um Stingley returned a corner I think again we talked about how that was able to kind of stifle the Browns and there's a little bit different here last week but it worked early like at the half the score was tied Lamar did not look sharp he did not look comfortable the numbers bear that out as well i think uh like in the first half the ravens average 3.9 seconds to throw it's a lot 83.3 percent of his dropbacks took longer than 2.6 seconds he averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt

and again like i felt really encouraged like it's 10 10 where we were at in terms of like what we thought was going to happen, was going to happen. Lamar was flushed out. He had to run. Second half, 9.1 yards per attempt. The time to throw dropped from 3.9 to 2.5. Just 34% of those dropbacks had a seconds to throw longer than two and a half. So like kudos to Todd Munkin neutralizing the blitz.

They got the ball out really quick the playmakers just quick in the flat um it didn't it took the pressure off lamar he didn't have to drop back and diagnose what houston was doing in the back end um just run or get the ball out and that's been how they've handled pressure all season uh lamar this season career high in completion percentage against the blitz career low and averaged at the target so he's not taking you know deep chances he's just trying to get the ball out so how they kind of handle that here clark i think is going to be very interesting i can lamar still be a massive weapon with his life which i think he will be yeah i think there's two ways the ravens can really take hold of this game and the first is if they can run the ball

consistently well if they can get six seven eight yards on first down consistently, Lamar Jackson is just too good and too elusive to not be able to convert on second and three, third and three. Those are like downs where they just have so many options. The way their offense is schemed up, it gives them options in the flat, gives them options to take the ball himself, gives them options to hand the ball off if there's an opening up the middle. So I think the Chiefs are going to have to defend the run well on early downs. And then the second way that I think the Ravens can win this game is if they don't contain him, you know, scrambling.

We saw a lot of him getting downfield against the Texans in a way that hasn't been a priority during the regular season. So I was impressed with the Ravens coaching and Lamar Jackson's decision making in that game. If he's able to consistently get through the backfield, right? The more Lamar's in the backfield, the better it is for the Chiefs. The more he can get out of that backfield

and escape the linebackers, the better it's going to be for the Ravens. And I think Willie Gay's health really matters for that reason. He was spying Josh Allen early in that game and then he got hurt. And then Josh Allen just kind of ran wild for a little while.

And it was kind of jarring to see the difference so uh Willie game makes a big difference if the Chiefs linebackers are all healthy then I think that they can at least prevent those big plays on the ground game but I haven't been as impressed with the Ravens offense I think uh as most people have they they did have three really dominant offensive performances in the Miami game which was their best offense performance of the year, the Detroit game and the Seattle game. Those games were absolute dominant offensive performances. Very impressive.

But other than that, they haven't been consistently grading all that well for me. They're pretty inconsistent. You know, Lamar Jackson takes a lot of sacks when he's under pressure. You know, when their run game isn't working and it becomes down to the past game, they've been pretty inconsistent.

His he's been a little bit reliant on big plays downfield. And so I think people have rewritten what happened in the 49ers game because it was such a high-profile game. And going in, it was, is Brock Purdy the MVP or is Lamar the MVP? And then the Ravens won by so much that Lamar became the MVP overnight. But he didn't even actually play that well in that game. The offense wasn't that great. I'm going to recap every drive they had in that game. They had a three and out. They had a negative drive for a safety, a field goal that was aided by a defensive pass interference on third down, a 53-yard touchdown drive that needed a fourth down conversion, a negative three-yard

drive for a field goal because they got the ball so far in San Francisco territory, another field goal drive, a 44-yard touchdown drive because of a penalty on the punt, a nine-yard touchdown off of an interception, and then a field goal drive and two punts. And so it wasn't this kind of offensive performance where they worked the 49ers' defense. It was mostly just the Ravens' defense putting them in good positions and then the Ravens doing enough to capitalize.

And the Chiefs' defense this year has been very, very good. And I'm not sure that like, I know that people know that, but for some reason there's this expectation, the Ravens are just going to do whatever they want. And I think the Chiefs are pretty well structured with, with Spagnuolo to stymie Lamar, you know, every other drive, probably. I think they'll be able to force the Ravens into either a turnover or a punt. So I think that gives the chiefs offense enough chances to eventually cover

the spread and hopefully went out right. Because I have both spread and money line on the chiefs, but closing argument is closing argument is that it, this is Patrick Mahomes. Okay. This is Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. He's an underdog. He is a unique player. And I don't mean, I don't mean that he's like the best player. He is the best player. I mean, he's unique in that his performances, his performance splits against good defenses are vastly different than any other quarterback

to ever play the game. He excels, he lifts up his game in the toughest spots. His performance when trailing is better than his performance with the lead, which is different from every other quarterback in the history of the NFL. He is a unique player that rises to the occasion in these spots against these tough defenses. And I don't care who his weapons are. You're giving him four points. I don't care that it's on the road. I don't care that his lineman can't hear his voice. This is Patrick fucking Mahomes getting points in the playoffs,

and he's going to win this game. Oh, man. Yeah, I love it. I love it so much. And that's kind of kind of where I was at in the sense that, like, and I joked we were talking a little bit before the show. Like, I feel like this is one of those very clear spots post-game where you're just going to be able to say to yourself well of course baltimore won they were the best team all season in comparison

to the chiefs um you know they had some dominant performances like clark just highlighted against really good teams and the chiefs like just stumbled even in the division against the raiders and broncos and like just looked very mediocre at times. Or you're going to be like, well, of course, Mahomes won and covered. He's fucking Patrick Mahomes. He wins and covers. He doesn't, this is just what he does. Why would we, we were getting more than three on Pat Mahomes. Why in the world am I holding a Ravens ticket? So I just feel like there's like, it's so easy in the middle or end of that game to be like, oh, yeah, hindsight.

This makes all the sense in the world. Of course, either way. I'm with Clark. I have no appetite for a non-Patrick Mahomes betting opportunity on Sunday. I want Mahomes. I want more than three if I can get it. Right now it's available three and a half. We're kind of monitored, but I feel like there's a pretty good appetite for the Ravens in the marketplace. And we've seen some fours. Man, if we're going to get four, I don't know

where we're going. I don't think we get to four and a half because I think you get a little bit of buyback, but I don't know. I don't know that we're done per se. I know you're maybe a little bit on the other side. I know you got some earlier action in three versus a three and a half but uh you know any additions to what's going on with the uh monken versus uh spags side of uh of this handicap yeah i did play some ravens minus three at open just to be transparent um just tailing off of a you know some sharp action that i knew you know some pretty well respected betters and they were just like hey this is going to close probably three and a half, four. So I'm like, you know what, I'll get, I'll get in here and I can always buy out at a better number if I want to. I saw it and I ignored it. I know it's one of those things where, uh, when my initial handicap, I was like, yeah,

that makes sense. And then the more that I did the research, I was kind of like, yeah, I don't really know how much I like this anymore and so you know i i don't really know i think if i had to play it now it would probably be uh it would probably be a chiefs plus four chiefs plus three and a half but like personally based on my personal handicap but i do think that there's an edge here for this ravens offense here against the chiefs but i think that they're it's counterable so the more that i was you know reading into it so like obviously the ravens rushing offense has been pretty solid here chiefs run defense, not that good. 23rd in rushing success rate allowed, 28th in EPA per play.

And what's interesting to me is that the Ravens have the second most runs out of the gun. They're averaging over five yards per carry. Chiefs are bottom five in success rate allowed and yards per carry out of the gun. It's like over five yards per carry as well. Lamar accounts for around 128 of those of the 340 carries out of the gun. It's like over five yards per carry as well. Lamar accounts for around 128 of those of the 340 carries out of the gun. The Chiefs have really struggled to guard mobile quarterbacks this year. But then every year we say this against the Chiefs, we say Chiefs defense stinks. And we've had way worse units. I mean, the Chiefs defense is legit good this year, but we've had way worse units before. Their run defense was bottom five and basically every metric coming into last year's super bowl and what did they do they

came out and stopped the run miles sanders didn't do shit like i mean they and they forced the eagles into like a pass first offense almost and that was kind of the eagles counterpunch was like they came out and started doing these quick passes to aj brown and devonta smith things like that and that was like okay well they're gonna like we're to like, we're going to do that. And then we're going to try and run. And the running just didn't work. So they had to pass basically the whole game. And I think personally, that was one of their downfalls and why they didn't end up winning. But I don't think the Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are really capable of that. And I think that's kind of the difference here. And the issue is that like the Ravens can't do that. If they come out in a pass

first offense, I mean, they're toast. Like that's like, they have no shot of winning. Like they're going to lose by 30 points. But if they are able to successfully run the ball as we've seen teams successfully run the ball in Chiefs almost all year, then I think that that sets up the pass. That sets up the pass a lot.

So Clark mentioned that too. Like that's the Ravens path to winning. It's a dominant running game, setting up the pass and, you know, being really successful that way. Like I think Lamar can execute that. My issue with this game is that if either team, in my opinion, is forced to become like a drop back quarterback, goes down 10 points, fourth quarter, 10 minutes left, you have to drop back every play. I think they're losing by more than 10. Like it's just not, they're not set up for success in those situations just because of how good the Ravens secondary is and defenses and how good the chief secondary is. So like, especially Lamar, I think that's a complete disaster situation. So for me, I think the most

likely outcome for me is that the Ravens are able to run the ball well and have some success. And they kind of cause enough turmoil that it'll be like a three point game. So that's kind of tough for me. Like, it's just like, I go back and forth on it. Um, but yeah, played Ravens minus three. If I had to play it now, probably Chiefs plus four, probably just going to sit on my Ravens minus three position. I don't know. It might be LCLV, but I don't know. That's kind of where I'm at with it. I think it'll be a good game. But what I alluded to at the beginning, like the, the days of teams just like dropping back 50 times and throwing the ball and slinging it against like shitty defenses. Like that's just not, not existing, especially in this game. So, you know you know it's just i think both the key to both team was

winning is running the ball and moving the moving the ball on third downs and like chain moving situations honestly which is kind of lame but i think that's what we're going to see yeah i mean elite football the playoffs third down conversions red zone conversion rate like very basic stuff that's not super predictive ahead of time, but very descriptive in the end when we look back and like, Oh, were you able to execute on third down? Were you able to convert your red zone opportunities? Boom. So yeah.

I think the hard thing is going to be the difficulty level for the chiefs offense is going to be way higher. The way the crowd got into the Texans game and affected it, like how many false start penalties they had, they were so loud. And Patrick Mahomes said the other day that Baltimore is one of the few places he's played where it's so loud that he can't speak to his tackles. So there are some things that I think if the Ravens get some momentum and make it tough on the Chiefs early, we've seen games where Mahomes starts to press. And I think that's the way the Ravens cover is they have to kind of get to Mahomes early, get the crowd involved and kind of lean on that

and then use that advantage to kind of crush them in the run game late. I think that's the script for the Ravens cover. That's what I'm most afraid of. Yeah. Well, it makes sense. I think that's a good transition to the afternoon NFC games.

We have the Lions, a team has benefited uh greatly i think from having a raucous crowd for two games on the road now in san francisco this line opened san francisco minus seven uh spent some time out at six and a half is now basically seven minus 110 across the board totals dipped a little bit we opened around 51 and a half uh most spots 51 flat which is a key number which is important fanduel down to 50 and a half minus 115 to the over here uh you know injuries i think are massive here in particular one injury in particular the debo samuel injury i think matters a lot the niners they survived it they lost him early had that in combination but not even combination like these things are correlated is the worst performance of brock purdy's young career Survived it. They lost him early. Had that in combination, but not even combination.

Like, these things are correlated. It was the worst performance of Brock Purdy's young career in a spot where, you know, everyone was really struggling to kind of process what they were seeing. I do think weather was a problem there as well. That should not be an issue here. Again, Debo status in the air, not practicing as of today, on Wednesday as we record.

Splits with Debo on and off the field. We've talked about it earlier this season. We kind of had one Niners. That was the Niners when they were healthy. And then we had that Niners little patch where there was no Trent Williams and no Debo, and they lost their straight. They were completely beatable. But from a yards per play standpoint, Debo's on the field,

7.3 yards per play. Debo's off the field, 5.9 yards per play. Debo's off the field, 5.9 yards per play. We're talking about very league average, mediocre offense. EPA takes a nosedive as well. Success rate, 52.3%, all the way down to 44.3%. So I think his status matters greatly. I want to know it personally before I engage in anything here in this market, Connor. I have not yet, but I guess we can talk Niners offense first. What are your thoughts on this matchup? Yeah, I played some Niners minus six.

Our buddy, you know, Silva said drop the anvil on Niners minus six and a half. And I was like, you know what? I'm not dropping the anvil, but I'll probably play a little bit here because I do think this probably should be seven. And that's where we're about at right now. You know, we'll get into the other side of the handicap later, but I really, I do still would probably lean Niners here. I mean, this Lions run D has been really good, but they've shown leaks at time

down to just 10th in success rate, fourth in EPA per run. But what is interesting though, 49ers are like a Shanahan scheme. So they run a super high rate of zone runs, like top three in the league. Lions against zone runs, just allowing 3.6 yards per carry, um, allowing a 46% success rate though, which is 13. So it's like the run D is good, but not completely infallible. And I think that that kind of matters here in this spot, especially if the Niners don't have Debo, but I mean, the biggest key here is like this line secondary. I mean, I think it's pretty bad and pretty exposable here. I mean, allowing since they're by 303 passing yards per game, 8.7 yards per attempt. I mean, they, the, the Niners still have George Kittle. They still have Brandon Ayuk. I mean, I don't think Juwan Jennings is awesome, but he's like a fine chain

moving slot guy. You know, like they have other weapons that like they can at least utilize here outside of Debo. Now Debo, I think would, you know, raise this to another level and make me probably bet more at Niners minus seven, but I do think that the offense has success. And it wouldn't surprise me to see them skew pass heavy again, even without Debo just being like, Hey, we don't want to establish the run specifically here in this spot against the Lions. We're just going to try and pass it a little bit more, but I think either way, they have reasonable success and score, you know, a good amount of points here. So I don't have too much on this side of the handicap outside of just like an on-par Niners game, I would say,

if not a little bit above against this Lions defense. Clark, are we getting a little bit of a discount here in the Niners, or at least maybe the perception of what the Niners offense is based off of what we saw last from Brock Purdy? Now, again, he led them to a win and a drive at the end to get there on the back of Christian McCaffrey a lot. But, I mean, obviously the performance is pretty poor. Do you think that that performance has impacted, like,

maybe what you thought this from a look-ahead line was going to be and where we've opened up? I don't think we're getting much of a discount at all. I was looking forward to getting a discount, and I just don't think it happened. You know, I think the Debo thing is potentially a little bit overplayed. I really think Debo matters. I think he's a fantastic player.

But when you're looking at those splits, there's a couple of nuances you have to add in. One is that two of those games were weather games, and we know that Purdy just can't throw the ball in the rain, like twice now, terrible. Trent Williams was out for some of those Debo games. The overlap of Trent Williams being out was massive. He's a huge, huge part of what they do offensively.

And then third, two of those games were games where Debo started and got injured early on. And in both of those games, it looked like he was going to be a big part of the game plan from the get-go. I mean, last week he touched the ball twice, I think, on the opening drive and then got hurt. It was clear that he was part of there. And because of the way that he plays, his element in the offensive game plan can't be replaced by guys like Juwan Jennings. He's a unique player. So I think that context pushes me a little bit off

over-weighting the difference between Debo. But the markets are indicating that Debo is probably going to play because it's minus seven pushing even higher in some spots. That's a lot of points to give a team that has not looked all that impressive the last couple of weeks. They struggled to beat Green Bay, legitimately struggled.

That wasn't variance or bad luck. That was a dogfight that the Packers easily could have won. So I think the seven is just like a lot of other people feel the same way I do, which is I was looking forward to betting the Niners on a discount and then it just never happened.

But I do think the Niners offense will have some success here. The Lions have been exploitable downfield, and the 49ers are the type of team that capitalize against defensive mistakes. And there will be plenty of defensive mistakes to capitalize against. Their run game has been pretty sort of doesn't really matter who they're playing. They're pretty successful on the ground. Christian McCaffrey is a big part of that. Their run scheme is a big part of that. The run scheme is a big part of that. And I think even if Debo doesn't play,

going into the game knowing that you don't have Debo, I think is different than missing him early in the game when you've built a game plan around him. So I do think the 49ers are going to have a lot of success here, especially if they can get the lead and hold the lead. And then they've got everything at their disposal and the Lions are going to be on their heels and in a different environment than they've been in a while.

So I think this is a good spot to kind of see a bounce back performance from the 49ers offense. It's interesting because the prop market does not expect Debo to play. So the prop market has Iuke at like 80 receiving yards, which is by far his highest line of the season, and has Kittle at like 60, whereas like Kittle's normal lines is like low 50s. Iuke's normal line is like low 50s. Ayuk's normal line is like mid 60s.

Like, you know, that's maybe even low 60s sometimes. So that's what I think is interesting there is like they're like 80 to 90% of the way of like Debo not playing, I would say. Interesting. Yeah, it is interesting and impactful. I mean, it is also a soft matchup because that's part of it too, right?

Like, so even in that game last week, we kind of all agreed like, hey great job this season none of us really think baker is fantastic they still carved out the lion secondary and like kind of came back at the end uh in a spot where like they were able to make chunk plays and i just can't see a scenario where they're not like the San Francisco offense without any rain being able to not make chunk plays offensively. Now, again, the lions can score as well. And, you know, especially it's seven, you know, the backdoor ability is, you know, a little bit terrifying with that,

that large of a number if they can stay within it though. I think like, it's very simple here. Like I think that Jared golf is, I think he's maybe a little bit, I think he's underrated. Um, right. In a sense,

underrated or overrated, underrated in the, in this instance, right. Cause the quarterback position, hold on. The quarterback position is, is the,

the ask is vast, right. But in the one scenario, which happens more times than not, and then that is a quarterback drops back and is not pressured. And he is kept clean. Jared Goff is fantastic. Now, again, that is not all that entails playing quarterback,

but that happens more frequently than any other scenario when you drop back. Now, can he do that here? Can he do that against the Niners who like to sit back in a lot of zone, who don't have necessarily scheme pressure in a way where, like, they bring a bunch of different, like, exotic looks. They can kind of beat you straight up with their guys up front. I think that, again, especially there's some offensive line injuries through the middle there.

Again, like, Goff is not going to be clean all game. But when he's clean, man, he takes care of the ball. He is accurate. And I think he puts the ball on these's clean, man, he, he takes care of the ball. He is accurate. And I think he puts the ball on these guys in a way that allows them to get yards after the catch. So now again, he folds like a cheap shirt if someone gets near his legs or like in his pocket or he's having to move off his pocket, he doesn't do it. So Connor, what are your thoughts there on, on golf and the offense,

back to oring seven or any other thoughts you have on the matchup? Yeah, I really think that we see the Lions come out and just run the ball as much as possible until the game is, unless the game gets out of hand. I mean, we saw the Packers go in and have success doing so for at least a good chunk of the game. And we have this Lions rushing offense, which is, you know, as good, if not better at full strength of their offensive line.

Now it's a little banged up. Maybe they're not quite as good, but I think schematically, and given their personnel, they still should be able to run the ball against the Niners team. 27th rushing success rate now in the year, 28th in EPA per play. Compare that to past defense, 7th in dropback success rate, 5th in dropback EPA per play. And you brought it up here specifically because,

and we talked about it last week too against the Bucs, like Jared Goff versus the Blitz is fine because he doesn't always get pressured on the Blitz. Like it's not that there's multiple people coming at him that scares him. It's Jared Goff under pressure, no matter the circumstances that causes him to have like a, I think it's like a 45% completion rate. He is, you know, amongst the worst in CPOE completion percentage over expectation. It's like negative 11%. And so I dug up the stats today when teams pressure him without blitzing, he's like negative 11%. And so I dug up the stats today. When teams pressure him without blitzing, he's like among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. And that is literally what the Niners defense is built on.

It's like getting pressure without blitzing. And since they got Chase Young, Dagle dug up the stat for over 40% pressure rate, you know, among that team. And they blitz at one of the lowest rates of the league. I mean, we're talking about like 18%, you know, 20%. So I think that is massively, massively impactful here because Jared Goff against, you know, against pressure has just not really been all that good. Um, and on top of this, we have another factor that Jared Goff's best section of the field is the middle of

the field between the hash marks. And Ben Johnson has done a really good job of pushing the ball downfield in that 10 to 19 mark. Eric Eager tweeted that out. It was like 70% completion rate, like averaging over 10 yards per attempt. 49ers are number one in defending it in the 10 to 19 middle of the field. They are allowing like a 40% completion rate. They're top three in basically every single metric in that range. I mean, for me, in my opinion, like if the Lions have to go to that drop back and pass game and are

not able to successfully run the ball or they fall behind, they're just in a really dangerous situation where if they're getting pressure and they're dropping back a ton of guys, they're confusing golf a little bit, it's not going to be very easy for them to move the ball. And so I really struggle to see a way that the Lions, if they fall behind, are like, I mean, again, it's one of those things where I think they're in really, really big trouble. Whereas if they can keep the game close, if they're running the ball successfully all game, like it has to be like, kind of like the Packers game.

It has to be like a three and a half plus quarters of running the ball and being able to play off of that run. I think they'll be able to move the ball at least somewhat well, but I just have concerns on a play to play basis that they're gonna be able to do that. So I already played the Jared Goff under um you know passing yards but um I don't know I do think they have success running the ball so that's what kind of leads me like I think the Niners score plenty and I think the Lions have success running the ball but I have concerns about the passing in there yeah play volume could be a problem in this game here Clark with uh me with the Niners very

comfortable bringing the clock, being slow. It's a hefty total. But again, there's chunk plays all over here too. What are your thoughts on the Lions' side when they have the football? Yeah, I think the Lions might not find it too easy going here. I think we can all agree when Jared Goff is standing upright with no pressure and his guys are wide open and low to the field, he can throw the ball to them. Like, good job.

You can play him. When you look at some of the other quarterbacks in this league, actually all of them, when you look at like highly accurate throws, I forget what the account was, football, and so they were using some data from fantasy points. Highly accurate throws versus like PFFs, turnover-worthy play rate. Goff is in a tier completely by himself. Yeah.

He is in both of them. No, again, like he's in one of the best schemed offenses in the NFL behind one of the best offenses in the NFL guys are wide. Yeah. That's his job though. His job is to execute it when it happens.

Right. So you're right. You're right. I'm just saying, I'm saying Jared Goff, if they get to, if they get to Jared Goff, it's going to be a long day

that that's that's the bottom line that i agree with too for sure i think i think the 49ers defense has struggled because of the way that it's structured like really really good up front excellent linebackers they close on tackles very quickly um because of the way they're structured they have done a good job of shutting down offenses that rely on good offensive line play so teams that maybe don't have an elite quarterback, but they just consistently get good gains because they're setting up good plays and winning up front. So they crushed Dallas, right? They really crushed Philadelphia. They did well against, I'm kind of looking at my numbers right now.

Oh, the teams they struggled with, Joe Burrow when he was healthy in the Bengals, Kirk Cousins and the Vikings and Matthew Stafford and the Rams quarterbacks that are capable of overcoming bad offensive line play. And I think the Lions kind of fit that first category category much more, which is relying on good offensive line play and things being easy. They're not going to be easy. You know, Jerry Goffin is going to have open guys over the middle of the field because Fred Warner is a monster. Dre Greenlaw is a monster. So I think it's going to be a little bit of a struggle for Detroit. And I think if they get behind, if the run game gets taken off the table from the Lions, that is sort of a downhill, you know, they're not going to recover from that. In my opinion, Jared Goff is just not good enough to say, Hey, you know,

you're down seven against this 49ers defense and you have two minutes. You don't, you can't run the ball. You got to pass it. Like that's not a situation I want to be in if I'm Detroit. So I think it sort of depends on how well the 49ers offense does, right? It's like a balancing act. Both of these teams are, when it rains, it pours. We saw what happened to Detroit when they lost the edge against Baltimore. It just went completely, you know, tits up. And the 49ers the same way they sort of established the edge against the Cowboys absolutely crushed him. Couldn't get that edge against Baltimore.

It struggled. Right. And so I think this is a game that kind of tilts. We should probably have a sense of who's going to win this game pretty early on. I think it's going to be, you know, either a 49ers blowout or the Lions keep the game within a field goal or a touchdown the whole way and have their whole arsenal on display. But if I had to pick one, I would think the 49ers are being

a little bit undervalued here. I'm not betting it because I think the line is sharp. My numbers make it under seven, but my angles make it 49ers. And so when that happens, I'm just sort of like hands off. I would like the over because I think both offenses will have some success. But one, I'm not convinced the Lions are going to have success, right? This could easily be a 38-10 kind of game, which wouldn't clear the total. And then the other thing is both of these teams

are capable of really slowing the game down if they want to. And so whichever team has the lead at the end, I could see them bleeding the clock successfully. You know, we've seen the Lions play very, very quickly. I wonder if they'll slow down in this one, knowing that, you know, creating variance by reducing the number of plays might actually be better for them. Whereas in the past, they've been the better team and they wanted to go the other way on that. So I think there's plenty of reasons to caution me off the over. This is a no play.

I have futures on 49ers and I'm, I'm riding with those. So, so go 49ers. Connor, you want to do a Niners team total and alts, right? I mean, I might be in an alt. I don't know. I mean, maybe some like, you know, minus 19 and a half or something like that. Who knows? I mean, it's kind of, it's kind of fun. I don't know about the team totals top. I mean, what is it even at this week? I got,

you know, sick after betting them last week and, you know, they were just looked terrible. I mean, it's not good. Yeah. I mean,

we're, we're probably right around 29 and a half 30 based off of this. I'm looking at the, you know, I've been writing the, the score first and when lose bets this off season, I'm looking at the you know i've been writing the the score first and win lose bets this offseason i'm like i'm defeated on this i'm sort of interested in so so the lions took the ball first against tampa bay um and i think they would do the same thing against san

francisco so i think whoever wins the toss the lines get the ball first um but i think that's been priced into the markets now because the last couple weeks they've been getting steamed people have identified these props like i have i actually think there might be value on the other side because if the Lions are going to get the ball first and the 49ers score first, that's really bad for the Lions, right? Because that means they got the ball, they didn't score, the 49ers got the ball, they did score. And so you might be able to get, I'm looking at the values now, but 49ers to score first and Moneyline is plus 115. That's not a great price, but it's just, i'm looking at the values now but you know 49ers to score first and money line is plus 115 that's not a great price but but it's just i'm looking at ways to sort of capitalize

on the idea that uh the lions start slow and finish slow right so i don't know if that's 49ers win both half those kinds of props i'm probably gonna have a little bit of money scattered around those but but nothing too serious when the uh the texans got the ball and then just went straight three and out i was like oh boy this might be a long one i was like this is not good i didn't have it on texans i had it on uh i had packers to score first and lose oh it's packers okay yeah i tried to get the texans one oh yeah the pack oh you had the texans the packers exactly how i scripted it up they went down kicked the field goal i was like all right packers scored first now i have a big plus money money line on the San Francisco 49ers.

And then they almost blew it. I live at the Niners like five times during that game. I was like at some party and I'm like sitting there. I'm just like smashing the button. I'm like, they got to do better. I'm like, next drive. It's got to happen. They just kept playing like shit. It was ugly. I mean, Brock Birdie played legitimately

the worst three quarters of football that I've seen in a while and then played fine at the end. I mean, but it was so bad. His lows are a lot lower than I would like, to be honest. I mean, he was missing badly. Like, I wish you could give him negative accuracy scores for some of those throws. Like, it weren't 0% throws. They were like negative 40% throws.

Yeah, so bad. That's completion percentage over expectation right is well i mean that's a binary uh yes or no but yeah it was it was it was pretty rough so yeah all right so we're all kind of you know niners more than than anything there was really no pro lions stuff in there which i think would it if it got to seven and a half clark like say debo plays we've got the seven half would you play the lions or no no no because you're you're just like you know after doing this show with you for a year and you know understanding how you bet for two years you're like you know totally fine taking the maybe somewhat gross value uh you know based

if your model is showing and that seems like something that would pop but i guess i'm sure you just have the niners very yeah so i'm, so it depends on the maturity of the market, right? So we're at the point where the amount of money it would take to move the line to San Francisco minus seven and a half is, is a meaningful amount of money from winning bettors. Right. So, so if my model is off at that point in the week, I'm not going to be like, Oh, well look, there's value on, you know, on my model now. Right. That's different than, than you know openers are off and i see a difference between my model and the opener i'm gonna i'm gonna bet it no matter what the number is just because like you know the openers aren't that sharp but so so it matters a little bit in context if it had opened seven and a half i

probably would have put some on the lines just because you know that's what my model said um i wouldn't feel great about it but uh because I really like the Niners in this game. But yeah, I would have done that. But not getting pushed that way from money. I mean, after you bet the Jets a couple times with whatever bums, I feel like you're willing to take anyone. That's some true respect right there, honestly.

Yeah, yeah, the Jets. That does hurt, actually. It's so bad. We don't mean any ill will to the Lions or their fan base. Oh, yeah. Restoring the roar. We're really excited for you. This is – don't take this out of context.

I'm not saying you – Jericho is very intelligent. Very good. You need to cow. I mean, he has good school. Yeah, I'm sure he did excellent there. But, yeah, it's going to be tough. It would be a rematch, we'd have a rematch

Against the Lions on either side But yeah, Niners Either get a rematch there or we get that Chiefs game Super Bowl rematch Alright gentlemen, good stuff As always, I don't know what our Super Bowl show looks like

But just subscribe to the channel before you leave Subscribe to the YouTube channel. Find us, move the line wherever you listen to podcasts. Subscribe there. We'll be back to do a Super Bowl show, but again, the prop show will be on Friday. And again, the off-season content starts sooner than you know it. So we appreciate you hanging out

with us all season long. For Connor and Clark, I'm Ryan. We'll see you'all next time. Thanks, everybody.