Move The Line - The Ultimate Divisional Round Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: January 16, 2025

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Divisional Round! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Divisional Round betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan Follow Ed on Twitter 👉🏼    / thepowerrank Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move the line presented by draft king sportsbook ryan noonan back for the divisional rounds arguably the best weekend of football all season long joined here as always by connor allen what's going on buddy yeah not a whole lot already released a couple props for this week we got a nice juicy under on one of the olds, one of the geriatrics in the league, and then we got an over on another guy. So I'm excited to dive in, though.

I think there's a couple of sides and totals I like this week as well, and it should be a great week of football. Yeah, it could be. Good weeks to have a guest on and a guest back. One of our favorites, one of the people I appreciate and respect the most in the space. I was grinding the college football scene as well. Lots of different ways to take in this gentleman's content.

Just go over to Twitter, at The Power Rank. You can find his newsletter, his podcast on Spotify, all the stuff you need to. Ed Fang, what's going on, bud? Nothing much, man. Thank you guys so much for having me on. It's always so much for having me on it's always uh it's always so much fun i think we had you in like week four which i believe was the first ravens bills matchup so we're coming back to the bell the ball of the vision around is uh the bills and ravens again so

i'm excited to talk shop and uh get our thoughts there is One of my folks, two episodes of Move the Line each week. We would appreciate it if you take the time, subscribe to the show. Again, 444-BETS on the YouTube channel, Move the Line wherever you listen to podcasts. You can go over to 444.com slash plans right now to scoop up a betting subscription. I know the season's almost over, but it gets you in for really cheap. Right now, you can get that geriatric prop that Connor pushed out.

I already put out two props this week, too, one tackle, one on the offensive side. We'll have a lot more this week. Continue to have a really, really good season here. Again, just right now coming in for a really small time and a really small dollar amount. Just get you a sample of what a full year of 4-4 betting would look like. Again, if you're playing fantasy or anything in the dfs space typically you're going to get everything

that we have at four for four obviously that's not all encompassing right now because uh you know dfs is still alive but you know you're not playing fantasy anymore but the betting side still pushing out props again four for four dot com slash plans to scoop that up. I come back on Friday, 3 p.m. Eastern for Prop Drop. Myself, Connor John Hyslop, continuing to build out big old million dollar tickets. Closer last week. Feel really good about it. Again, some obvious friends of the show plays, I feel, coming up on the card this week. It's going to be a fun one too. So again, subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts or take this stuff in. Don't miss that show. And I know you have spent a ton of time on the college football side too. We don't here on this show, but obviously National Championship coming up on Monday.

And we get on the other side of these playoff games. Give us a little bit of insight on what you expect to see from Notre Dame and Ohio State's side total matchups. Anything for the people on the college football national championship game. It's been fun with the first college football playoff, the 12 team playoff this year. Right. So like last week was kind of an unprecedented weekend where you had football Thursday, Thursday through Monday and like some huge sem games thursday and friday night on the college football side um just just an amazing weekend of football i hope you guys enjoyed it as much as i did yeah all those conversations with the wife go ahead because you know that's sometimes a challenge yeah in a primer ahead of time let her know like yeah i mean i don't know how long you guys have

been in the industry but like i think of establishing the family that like January, I'm not around much. It's just, yeah, there's a lot of football to be watching, you know, and they join in quite a bit. So I'm pretty lucky. I get the double dip though too. And I got it last night. I, you know, telling her the other day, I'm like, Hey,

no football on Thursday. This is the last Monday night game. And then, you know, last night's TGL. She's like, now I got to watch simulator golf. I thought it was going to be a lighter week. The golf tournament is always on the weekends too, on multiple TVs. So yeah, she knew what she was getting into, but it's definitely a challenging time. So Connor doesn't have kids like we do, but he's, you know, he also wisely primed his wife to, to be used to this lifestyle. I also compromise on Sunday nights and Monday nights. If they're like bad games, uh, then I just like, I mute it and then we'll watch a movie. So I was like,

put on my computer, like right in front of me. And then I can like, you know, kind of do a watch. I don't really care what the announcers have to say, like 90% of the time. Anyways, it's like very rarely useful insight. So it's just like, um just like um yeah i mean the only time that i really miss it is like if i pick up a tidbit of like oh this guy's actually in the sideline for the next few drives or whatever um i mean that's about it so yeah otherwise it's it's not a whole lot here um and jbc you're chiming in need to know who the pick on notre dame osu is is from Connor's wife. My wife won a $1,500 parlay a couple of months ago at DK on $50 because she just put together a bunch of random guys that she loves, including Mark Andrews.

But shout out JBC. JBC just won a Millie in the Millie Maker. So shout out JBC, crushing it over at Run Pure. Dang. Sorry, I took the wind out of your sails. Thoughts on the game? I think it's an interesting one because we saw Ohio State kind of yo-yo really down after the Michigan game

and then just crushed Tennessee and Oregon. Not quite as dominant against Texas in that semifinal game, but did what they had to do. And, you know, if you didn't see it, you know, Texas had a chance to tie late in the game. But Ohio State got a turnover, ran it back for a touchdown. And look, this is the best team in my numbers and a lot of people's numbers. Had a nugget from Chris Andrews in my newsletter. He was talking about how he's got Ohio State as the top team,

and nothing's really changed. It's just the magnitude of the spread. And, you know, Notre Dame is a team, on the other hand, that you could argue has kind of gotten a little bit lucky over the last two games. They have, you know, kind of had some, you know, some good turnover luck against Georgia in the quarterfinal and obviously a little bit of luck in getting the backup quarterback in that game. And then against Penn State, who I thought was a really, you know, really even matchup, had some luck in terms of Penn State's turnovers. But probably even more importantly, like Penn state defender just fell down on a on

a long touchdown play uh that that's the kind of luck that really doesn't show up in the the box score at all so but despite that you know when you look at the underlying numbers like notre dame played really well in that game and you know i i think it's going to be uh you know i have uh ohio state by about seven a little bit less than seven. So I think it should be about a touchdown. Little bum that I missed, you know, betting Notre Dame plus nine, plus nine and a half, which is where it opened. I think there was maybe some tens. But it's come down where it's supposed to be.

I mean, Ohio State should win this game. And I expect them to do that. I hope they don't, being here in Ann Arbor. But not that. I hope they don't being here in Ann Arbor, but not exactly like we're rooting for Notre Dame here in Ann Arbor either, but I'll be rooting for Notre Dame. I do think Ohio State kind of gets it done. And can Notre Dame slow down the Ohio State passing attack?

I think that's the key matchup there. They weren't great in that regard against Georgia. They were much better against Penn State, but Ohio state's receivers gives you problems that no one else in the country really does. And, and that's the main matchup there. And, uh, yeah, so I expect Ohio state to win, um, props for college football. I've kind of, kind of been interesting. Um, you know, I had, I had Riley Leonard over, I think 49 and a half rushing

yards in the semifinal. I usually send that out to members. And then by the time I got it, it was like 54 and a half. And so I still think it was a good bet. He certainly had plenty of opportunities, but if you want to stop one guy from running, and I think this is true in both college and the pros, if you want to stop one guy from running you can probably do it you can devote enough resources to that uh and and to make that happen and you know i'm thinking about a jayden daniels bet that almost won this past weekend yes that didn't want to talk about it look if you're gonna if you're gonna if you're gonna put a spy right like put two you might as well put two two they did two sometimes or two um but you know i mean i think there's a lot of similarities with jane daniels and and riley leonard like riley

leonard a really good game throwing the football against a pretty good penn state secondary and um you know so you know how is ohio state gonna play them are they just gonna be like oh we're ohio state we can deal with them. The market is... I haven't decided on Riley Leonard yet, but I think the market was in the 30s, which is a lot of respect for Ohio State's defense. But I think it's kind of more the scheme. And that's what makes it pretty interesting. I think in some games, you can just kind of say, hey, it's a running quarterback. It's a high leverage game, take the over. And I think that does work sometimes, but it's a little bit more tricky, especially as we get towards the end. And there's a lot of eyes on all this. like the turnover variance thing on the Notre Dame side has kind of been part of their bread and butter all year right they they really lived on opportunistic you know situations where they

could turn the other team over uh I actually don't know off the top of my head uh they certainly didn't play the toughest of schedules did lose the to Northern Illinois who ended up not being a very good foot Mac football team uh and then kind of took care of business for the rest of the year, made the playoff. And I mean, man, is Notre Dame just looking so good in the 12-team playoff era where they don't have to share any of that revenue with the conference? Just kind of unbelievable.

Sick. The situation they're in. So yes, some good turnover luck the last two games. I don't know what it's been this season, but we'll see if it continues. The Drew Aller pick at the end of the game was just, I mean, he could be, he could have been going to the NFL. That announcement, I think, could have been a little bit different this week. Maybe it wouldn't have been, but that was just like one of the worst decisions I've seen in recent memory. And I think that's saying a lot, you know,

yeah, it was pretty rough yeah i think i think it was interesting right because yes it was a bad decision but you also see quarterbacks make that bad decision throw across the field under pressure and just harmlessly falls to the turf too or or receiver makes a great play um but to be fair i think you look kind of deer in headlights in most of the last yeah two two three games no no i mean i mean not the smu game because that was over before they cooked yeah yeah i mean there was there was there was a couple times against boise state i'm like what are you doing like it didn't matter because it was boise state right but um there were there were there were a

couple plays there where where i thought he could have been better. So, you know, I mean, I think he is headed back, and that's probably the right decision for him. Yeah, for sure. Last other bits I'm looking for in the college football playoff. Jeremiah Love versus Jadarian Price. Love battling a knee injury and then kind of still just being awesome. Had like 11 yards in the first half. Of course, I had his under at 40-something. Ran for like 11 yards in the first half of course i had his under at 40

something ran for like 40 yards in the second half um you know yeah he's just a really really good player so i i wrote down in my notes app it's like a you know never bet against jeremiah love because i bet against him multiple times i just lose every single time so i'm just you know i've swore him off um just a great football player and then obviously uh amazing NFL prospect Jeremiah Smith 80 and a half receiving yards I think maybe not a big decision point but just where it could be a fun prop if you're like interested in you know betting on someone that's really good at football I think that's you know a viable path if you're looking for just pure entertainment for sure uh so love closed 33 and a half so yeah you got an insane amount. Yeah, I think I got 37 and a half or something like that.

Yeah. So you're certainly on the right side of that. And if I'm not mistaken, he's been priced in the 90s all year. So it was all about the injury situation, right? Yeah, it was. So a note for the final, like he's not even listed as injured. So I would expect after another week he is full go, which means if you see a prop for the third running back, you probably don't know which way to go on that one.

And then Jeremiah Smith is also interesting. I'm glad you bring that up because some of the cover three guys were talking about it before the quarterfinal against Oregon. And they were like, oh, should we go under? It was 70 and a half. And they were actually talking about the under and it just kind of made me look into it. And I was like, no, the unders, no, it's like the over, right? That was, that was the play there. I bet it myself. I didn't send it to my members on my site. And then of course, you know, as soon as the market's open for the semifinals,

I will Jeremiah Smith over 79 and a half makes, makes a lot of sense, get a ton of movement. And, you know, I mean, I, I presume that Texas kind of devoted a lot of resources to shutting him down. And, um, so he didn't even come close, which, which happens. Um, but he is a talent. Uh, you said it's at 88 right now that's probably where I'd make it you know let's that's probably where I made the number I think I've I think I made the number in the in the in the semis at 86. so um but if you had to bed and over I think that's a fun one to do for sure because you know like it went over in the first quarter against oregon that's always it was unbelievable yeah uber talented young guys just wild that you know obviously we have a couple of them in this class but uh he seems just absolutely ready to to go i mean there's there's no way to make that two more years away he's not an 18 year old he doesn't have an 18

year old body that's like he looks like a grown-ass man who's out there just absolutely ready to continue to dominate the next level. I've heard a few people that originate their own numbers kind of feel the same, Edward. Ohio State's aside, but it's maybe got cooked out at some point. Maybe some agree that it maybe is still a little too long, but then you start to walk in a tight line between a definite, I haven't heard many people feel that Notre Dame is alive on the money line,

which is wild. It's a national championship game. Obviously anything can happen, but you know, it's also just in the two of the most bizarre, interesting, fascinating upsets in college football this season. We're both these two teams but obviously that michigan game uh you know and then the northern illinois game yeah it in ann arbor it's not a great spot either way you know not cheering for ohio state or notre dame in uh the michigan country so it's very interesting for you there oh i'll still be watching it doesn't

matter i'll be sure for sure for sure all right let's talk nfl um i'm excited for this weekend it is i think pretty normal discourse that we have this happens every time where you get a couple of buzzy wildcard teams that come in and catch these teams that are coming off of a buy and just we haven't seen some of these teams especially in the instance of like kansas city has really been mia for three weeks at this point from uh you know normal football schedule so we'll start there first game as always uh is going to be the texans and the chiefs poor texans can't get off the early spot no matter where they are here uh for the most part we are eight eight and a half across the board connor i don't know if you want to bring up any profit x we can kind of shop some of uh the opportunities that they have they're available

for the most part 41 and a half is the total across the board here um look this is a we saw this game just a couple of weeks ago uh was not particularly close though we know it's just kind of a how the chiefs have run all season They have not really pulled away from a lot of teams. Obviously, the Texans, also driven off of a ton of turnover luck, hung a pretty big number on the Chargers last week there. Ed, I'll let you get started on Texans-Chiefs. I really have my doubts about the Houston pass offense. I really don't know about the change from what happened from a remarkable rookie year for CJ Stroud to this season where it just really hasn't been good. My numbers liked Houston at home plus three, plus two and a half. I didn't really bet it because the most predictable thing in the

NFL is your pass offense. And when the numbers say you're significantly below average, that kind of gives me pause. They did perform pretty well. They had a success rate of 41.7% against a very good Chargers defense, 7.25 yards per pass attempt. And then you come to the Chiefs and they're a team that just doesn't really, you know, blow you out, right? I mean, when I look at their passing numbers, I have them really high in terms of success rate. I think, you know, top five after I make my opponent adjustments, but actually below average when you look at yards per pass attempt. And that's a stat that includes sacks but it's patrick holmes it's it's not the stats that are they're hurting that number uh that are making them below average uh when i when i do my calculations so uh you know i think with a number at like eight i would definitely

lean uh towards houston plus eight uh simply simply because i i just don't see kansas city generating enough explosive plays to pull away from this team. And Houston's defense is also really good. I think Kansas City squeaks by. Not too dissimilar from last time. I think last time was a little bit deceiving because they probably could have scored on that last drive.

But I think it was Hunt that actually just slid and said the game's over and, and can, you know, it was almost like Kansas city was trying to burnish their record in one score games this year by him sliding. So, so, you know, that score could have been a little bit more, but you know, it's actually disappointing guys. Like I actually don't love any spread in these four games. Just kind of leans. I'll tell you which side I would lean if I had to bet

these. But so I would lean if I had to bet these. So I would lean Houston plus eight, but not seeing a ton of value. Yeah. In teaser zone there for sure, Connor. You can see we're looking at eight minus 106. You want to get the eight on Houston on ProfitX right there at minus 102. So definitely some liquidity out there too if you want to lean into that as well. Connor, any thoughts on the match? Yeah, it's, it's pretty interesting because chiefs are just like so healthy now. It seems like

they're, you know, really getting, I guess, like, I guess just coming together, like Chris Jones back, Jalen Watson potentially back. I think that's still a little bit up in the air um but their you know chief secondary kind of went downhill a little bit when they lost him um and offensively they played a lot more a lot less 12 personnel with Hollywood Brown back because you have you know just I mean you have more versatility with Hollywood with DeAndre Hopkins Xavier Worthy's playing a little bit more out of the slot um so it requires a little bit less Noah Gray and we have you, Travis Kelsey in the playoffs who, again, even last season, he didn't have an awesome season. And then the playoffs came in, I mean,

70 plus yards in every single game was looked like the Travis Kelsey of old. And I kind of buy into the fact that Travis Kelsey, like we saw from Robert Gronkowski late in his career, like didn't do much in the regular season. And then the playoffs, it was kind of like nothing changed. Just like was back to his old self, vintage, vintage Gronk. So I think we could see that from Kelsey as well, which makes the Kansas city a little bit scarier.

Now I think to our Ted's point, like, I'm not really sure they still haven't really been stretching the field as much. Like they haven't really been throwing it as much downfield. So it kind of been a lot of underneath stuff. So I worry a little bit there, but I do think on the Texan side here, it was pretty interesting. The last time they played the chiefs, they went past heavy on early downs. Actually it was like 71%. And then last week they did 73% on early downs, which is like a massive shift from where they normally are at, which is generally more run heavy on first, first and second down. So I think that could be

an interesting angle in this spot here. CJ Stroud, you try and avoid this run defense of the chiefs, which are amongst the best in the league, basically no matter what metric you use. So for me, it's tough on the spread specifically. Like I almost kind of want to buy Kansas city a little bit, just because again, they're getting healthy. Like we saw Stroud and the Texans play really well for one game, but I'm not sure I'm really ready there yet after we have like an entire season basically essentially worth of them not really playing all that well and you had the big pick six and then basically the next possession was almost back-to-back pick sixes uh working with a short field basically took them back inside the 20 again so i think we are dealing with

in my opinion a little bit of an overinflated texans team off of some recency bias i still really struggle to see secondary pass catching options against a defense that okay just the the numbers with watson are night and day um we might not see a full load of jaylen watson here for kansas city but it sounds like he's back um you know some of the math behind or the data behind what Connor's calling out there too. One of the best third down conversion rates when Watson was on the field for the first seven weeks, they held

opponents to under 33% third down conversion rate. That jumped up to almost 46% in weeks 8-14 with Watson off. EPA per play, they were bottom six in the league defensively. They were top seven with him on the field. QB rating, there's just a ton of metrics with Watson on and off that are so

different. Still, Pacheco back, totally different. You're starting to see a very different version of what Xavier Worthy was early in the season. Getting him involved in the running game has been something they're doing more consistently. And then Hollywood Brown hasn't played a ton, but it's just getting absolutely peppered with targets since he's been out there. I think the dynamic that better worthy brings Hollywood being back Connor. I know you've touched on it too. Basically having Kelsey and bubble wrap the old,

you know, late Gronk type of mentality where just let's get into the playoffs and then see if there's a light to be switched here a little bit just very bullish on kansas city right now so eight and a half does feel a little rich but for me it's chiefs or nothing because i do think that some other season-long metrics are skewed because we're playing large chunks of the season without hollywood without pacheco without watson um they don't need you know jeff in the chat is asking about d hop is d hop washed i don't even know if it matters like i don't even know that they really need much on a d hop right like we had so much chiefs sample this season with

jalen watts or uh what's this what's the big white guy running you know wind sprints out there yeah just talking about jalen watson's justin watson out there running wind sprints a bunch of juju dusted off like so there's just so much of the chief sample of season-long data that is i think very very noisy so um i hate it but i think we're in for another uh chief's run here as they kind of get healthy like and the problem for stroud this season in terms of taking sacks at a huge rate, it's almost not all, but a lot of it's been up the middle. It's been center guard play that have been problematic. That's a problem.

That's a problem with Chris Jones and Dan in the middle that are really good. So, yeah, it's, again, great teaser-like, I think. And it's Chiefs for nothing for me so it's annoying but you know i'd love for them to go away i'd love to not have to watch them on super bowl sunday i just feel like i'm gonna be watching the chiefs again guys i hate it so crazy the difference i mean you have tech the chiefs playing the texans as eight point favorites and then we get ravens against the bills and basically like what could be like i mean one of the best games of the season you know again like between two of the best teams in the league.

So it's real tough run out for those teams and per usual Chiefs, you know, win a lot in the regular season and, you know, get a great run out in the playoffs. So, you know, I guess can't blame them for being awesome, but certainly the way things are looking right now, it's a significantly easier path with the buy than the Texans, then the Ravens or Bills, you know, having to play multiple games in a row. Yeah. No, that,

that buy was so big for them because, you know, I feel like they probably be lined similarly, right. Against both these teams where we know the bills can handle them. Yeah. You know, that Ravens game early in the season,

whereas that other matchup is, is totally different. So yeah, they are not for sure. They're going to be for sure uh they're gonna be a problem they're gonna be a tough out all right late saturday game commanders on the road in detroit uh nine and a half has been cooked out to for the most part uh hefty total 55 and a half uh 50s available on profit x you can see some of the stuff on the screen you want to shop around there as well which is really interesting this is again the commander's

team that i think we had probably pretty low expectations coming into the season connor but jane daniels hit the ground running it's kind of that dude i just don't see a scenario where they can get by here without him being just an insane problem, right? This has to be like an all-time Jane Daniels game for him to go on the road in Detroit. A team that's defensively held up, I think, better than we expected, especially post-Aiden Hutchinson. What are your thoughts on this line, 9.5? Yeah, this is a real interesting game

because you all landed well in terms of like jay daniels has to play play amazing i think that this detroit defense is going to once again play really aggressive we saw them against minnesota play like 55 man um they blitz a lot more like they're just playing like tight man and saying like all right we might get beat we're gonna just try and play aggressive get you behind the sticks do what you can and i think that's kind of going to be a really interesting battle here because Jaden Daniels this season, just 59% completion rate against man, 6.5 yards per attempt, which is significantly lower than his numbers against zone. Also sacked on 12% of his dropbacks against man coverage compared to 6% against zone. So like, and I mean, it matches up like who separates against man, basically just Terry McLaurin.

I mean, Zach is a key is and Deami Brown, Zach Ertz can't separate against anyone. I mean, like, this is like, like that's it. And so, I mean, accordingly, McLaurin has by far the highest target right there. And it's just been very boom or bust because he can obviously create a big play, but he's on a play to play basis. I'm not sure that you want him to be your like 30 plus percent target share guy against man. So I don't think that Detroit's going to be consistent, but I do think that their defense is going to create some havoc in that sense. And Jane Daniels can obviously beat Detroit with their legs where, I mean, under Aaron Glenn, the last couple of

years, like Detroit's defense has allowed rushing yards, quarterbacks like through the wazoo. And now we have again, like one of the best running quarterbacks in the league um and he tried to run as much as possible last week i mean we're talking about what 12 13 attempts only finished with 36 yards but was basically first second read scramble like that was like there was no going through other reads it was just sometimes even just first read and scramble tons of designed runs um which wouldn't be surprised either if they try and kind of offset some of the aggressiveness from Detroit in, you know, running that way.

So to be honest, on the other side, I don't have too much of a handicap other than I'm pretty sure the lines are going to drop around 30. You know, I, I don't really have any match of specific notes on why I think Washington can slow down the Detroit offense because I don't think that they do,

but I'm interested to hear otherwise, if you guys have any, anything to the contrary. Yeah. To Connor's point, the Lions on the season second highest blitz rate in the league post Hutchinson, just about just a tad under 35% post Hutchinson, 42 and a half percent.

And they've generated a ton of pressure. So even though it was like, what are they going to be able to do pressure wise? Cause Hutchinson was a one man band. they've been able to kind of figure it out here so to Connor's point like either way both of those Jane Daniels sack numbers are great uh 12% sack rate uh is against man still exceptional uh he's been really surprising because you know he took a ton of sacks last year in college thought that was going to translate and be a problem because it typically is but uh what are your thoughts on this matchup yeah i mean i i think detroit's pass offense against washington's past defenses is is heavily

heavily in favor of detroit um you know when you look at this offense with ben johnson and jared golf i mean they've they've been one of the elite in the NFL since the middle of the 2022 season. So we have almost two and a half years of data on this. With their performance against a very good Minnesota defense, they're actually first when I look at adjusted passing success rate with Goff. You look at Washington's defense, and yes, I think they got the three games with Marshawn Latimer that they traded for,

and despite the fact that he looked awful against Mike Evans, it is an upgrade. It is a good thing for that team. But, I mean, Detroit's offense is just too multifaceted for, I think, a below average – I mean, and that's probably putting it kind of just below average. But for a Washington pass defense that does not look good, a below average what i mean and that's probably putting it kind of like just below average but for for watching past defense that that does not look good i think they i think they get a lot of

this done and obviously having david montgomery probably back can only help even i don't think even though i don't think that's particularly necessary um you know with what jameer gibbs has been been doing uh on the other side uh yeah i mean mean, it's going to be interesting. I think Detroit's, the thing about Detroit's defense is you really got to dig in and figure out, like, do they have enough warm NFL average plus bodies to get them where they want to go, right? So many injuries, Aiden Hutchinson, Aleem McNeil, and Carlton Davis doesn't look like he's coming back in the secondary. I did a pretty deep dive and I don't want to get into every single detail about it, but they're very thin at defensive tackle. Otherwise, I think they're going to be good.

They got some good news. Terry and Arnold left the Minnesota game with a foot injury, but he doesn't even have an injury designation. It looks like the rookie's going to play. I wouldn't say that he's been good this year, but they trust him. He's an aggressive young corner. He's made his mistakes, but I do think he's probably a better player than he was at the beginning of the season. They're going to throw him out there. I think with the personnel that they have, they're at least above NFL average. And I think that gets them to the Super Bowl, if not win the Super Bowl with the power that the offense has.

In this game, I would, you know, my number is that, you know, my model says Detroit by about nine. I mean, it's very close to the market, right? The thing about this number is that, like, I usually still have a preseason prior for most of these teams, except for Washington. I threw that out, A, because I didn't think it was appropriate given what Jaden Daniels was doing, and B, to not look too ridiculously off market. I still think that's the right thing to do. However, I do think there's a little bit of

signal in that I would have made this two touchdowns if they would have played week one in detroit so i would lean a little bit that way um if you had to make a bet i i mean i think i think detroit's the right side here yeah yeah i agree with that too i mean again this is kind of when i was touching on the top i just i think the commanders have had a great season i'm excited for their fan base to be out from the snyder, to get a quarterback, to get on the other side of this thing. But I feel like this is a spot where you've got to get to test yourself and see, great, you've made tremendous strides, but in terms of being in the upper echelon elite elite, you still have a little bit of a hill to climb.

So a nugget on some of the stuff I think they're going to have trouble with defensively against under center design runs per next-gen stats, commander's defense has allowed the most yards before contact in the league. They've allowed the highest success rate in the league. They've allowed the second highest explosive rate in the league. The Lions have gained 1,800 yards, 400 more than anyone else in under the center design runs so it is a terrible matchup either way because i agree with ed uh who started with i think the secondary is in a problem in a problem matchup wise yeah i mean i think i'm on rock and eat i

think you know jameson williams can have some big time splash plays here against the secondary so and then defensively yeah i mean I think defensive tackle is going to be hard for them to hide as they move on to the next level. But the best safety group in the league for sure, Mel Fonweback is huge for them. He allows Brian Branch to do a ton of stuff defensively. They can keep Kirby back and do a ton of stuff. So I really like the secondary that they have here. So if they can show up and hold down against and do a ton of stuff so i really like uh the secondary that

they have here so if they can show up and hold down against the run they'll be fine again anzalone's back so they have got some guys back who are out for an extended period of time so this is eight and a half earlier i took the layup guys like i did last week though there was a very easy uh long teaser with the ravens and the bills at eight and a half i took an early chiefs uh lions two and a half here which i think is uh you know getting kind of a layup side too A long teaser with the Ravens and the Bills at 8.5. I took an early Chiefs Lions at 2.5 here, which I think is, again, kind of a layup side too. So, hey, you want to get a third leg? It sounds like maybe you could splash Ohio State there minus 2.5 as well.

That's your thing. What do you got, Connor? There you go. You got my juices flowing here with maybe this is not going to be a golf pass-heavy game here like the lions at their core and like they want to run the ball and they want to run the ball successfully. When you have David Montgomery back, we've seen Dan Campbell just like, if they're like full in practice, they're just like thrown back in there. I mean, I know that David Montgomery's injury was like potentially

really bad or what we thought. And now he's kind of playing early. I mean, he was a full participant in practice. So if he's still hurting, uh, the team doesn't really seem to know slash care about that at this point, um, based on their practice report. So I wouldn't be surprised. I don't think he's gonna be a hundred percent workload, but like I could still see him starting like they did early in the season. Like he starts the game and then Gibbs comes in, uh, you know, kind of as the one B, but then maybe plays a little bit more in the middle of the season as well. So, yeah, I don't know.

I think that this Detroit team is probably going to run the ball a ton, maybe play some unders in the passing game, maybe attempts under from golf. Who knows? We'll see. TBD there. Yeah, I like that spot for sure. So next game, first game on Sunday, we have the Rams on the road in Philly. This has been on the move a little bit. Six and a half, sixes, so shop around.

Totals kind of sitting around some key numbers too. 44, 44 and a half. This is going to be another very interesting matchup. And again, another repeat from a not too long ago matchup, I believe week 12. Yeah, these teams played 37-20 Philadelphia win. Saquon had a decent day went for 255 on the ground uh multiple explosives of 70 plus yards uh i it's not that i think he's going for 255 again uh connor but i think is going to be another spot where saquon absolutely crushes again rams third highest missed tackle rate in the league uh bottom five yards

before contact per attempt you just can't give saquon a head start and then tell me you're going to miss tackles at an above average rate and hang yeah i like i like the eagles here um the rams pass rush i thought was really really impressive their defense is so impressive relative to the talent that they have. But I think that comes, just comes to a head here. The Eagles are too, too talented in the running game. And when that, when that's working, like the pass rush is just going to be mitigated. Like it's, it's, it's going to be really tough for them to consistently pin their ears back and, and get to them. So yeah, I like Philly here and their defense too, the turnaround they made mid season.

You know, the Rams had some success against them but uh you know overall they've been playing pretty well so give me the eagles here at five and a half yeah and the you know they're gonna be very different than what we saw the other night where the vikings blitzed stafford a ton and he absolutely cooked them uh eagles well no neither of these teams actually blitz very often um but on the season philly fourth lowest blitz rate they blitzed even less than that their baseline, the first time in this meeting, which slowed them down a little bit. And again, because they have the dogs in the back end to kind of match up and play with this Rams receiver core. What are your thoughts on this one? Yeah, so probably.

So I actually looked at Stafford with Nakua and Cup versus without. And, you know, so for the season, I have I would expect him to have about a 46 percent passing success rate against an average NFL defense. That's after my opponent adjustments. It's higher than the NFL average of 43. It's kind of where we expect, you know, I think this Rams offense is certainly above average and probably top 10, right? But I wanted to see, you know, look, Cup and Nakua came back in week eight and they've been pretty good since then. And I think they have an upside that not a lot of teams have. So I went back and I looked at it and, you know, the success rate was better with Cup and Nakua, but it wasn't crazy. I have it at 47.6 percent. Right. So, yes.

Are they better with with those two guys? Certainly. And so my my number is probably underestimating the Rams a little bit, but not a ton. Not not as much as the one I want to talk about with with in the Baltimore Buffalo game. So. You know, my number is – let's see, where do I have this? I have Philly by about five. Probably if you did a little more careful analysis with both their top end receivers, it would probably be Philly by four. Obviously, you've got to stop Barkley.

And if you're the Rams defense, you know, again, it comes back to this thing. this things like if you really want to stop Saquon Barkley, you can probably do it. It's just the consequences on the back end. Yeah, for doing that. Right. So I'm really interested to see what the Ram scheme is, you know, can can are they just gonna be like, I don't think well, AJ Brown and Devonta Smith can certainly hurt you, right? It's just a matter of whether Hurts can get it to them because his past numbers haven't been particularly good by my metrics this year, especially given the receivers that he's working with, right? He's below NFL average, and I actually have Drake May at NFL average based on his performance this year. And if you compare the receiving cores that he's working with, you got, you got to give Drake may a big nod there. Anyway, let's go.

I love it's working. Some random drink may stop here, buddy. Well, no, it's just something I'm looking at. I was like this kid, this,

this rookie is NFL average, which is remarkable as is right. Because Caleb Williams came in and we're talking about like the best receiving core a rookie has ever had right he doesn't even come close to that and drake may comes in who i had a ton of doubts about i wasn't excited about drake may going to the patriots and he and nfl average is absolutely respectable with the sample size that he has put out and then you look at what he's working with. Hunter Henry is his best target. It's just crazy. It's just crazy what's going on there.

Let's give him T. Higgins. Let's give him Chris Godwin. Let's give him some, what is it, T. McMillan draft. He can run a little bit too, right? Yeah. I love this. I love how this anyway, get back to getting back to the division game.

I haven't made a final decision. I may, I would at least tell you now I'd probably leave lean Rams plus six, knowing that that could obviously blow up on my face and say, gone goes for 405 touchdowns. But I think it'll be different than the first time and we'll see how it goes yeah Puka's cooking um I think he's obviously you know in play to hang crooked numbers just like Saquon is too so I could have some some uh advantageous matchups on the outside yeah I just think it's going to be different for you know that offensive line

they're facing here this Philly offensive line is just significantly different than what minnesota is rolling out there uh obviously sam donald was getting a little bit of that old go see and bag a little bit and uh kind of a little problematic so it'll be interesting to see how that plays itself out all right bell of the ball ravens are on the road in buffalo this flipped open one and a half on the bill side, and we got a lot of Ravens money right away. We are now basically one, one and a half on the Ravens side. Shop around out there. You can see some numbers on the screen for ProfitX, too. If you're watching on the YouTube channel,

some liquidity across the board there, too. Total 51 and a half. Again, right side of a key number. Obviously, another matchup. We touched on this back in week four. This is a blowout win at home. Island game for the Ravens. Different spot.

Road game. Buffalo in that game. Just haven't heard this enough. Again, really important to know. No Terrell Bernard. No Matt Milano. Rolling out B-teamers at linebacker against Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. Baylon Spector is not the answer.

He was not the answer in week four. He would not be the answer again. Teron Johnson also out of the lineup. He's a massive piece to what they like to do, how they can be multiple, what they like to do in dime, all those different things. So different matchup here, Ed. Talk to me about Ravenvens and bills uh connor was mentioning earlier about how this could be the best game of the season uh i think this could be one of the best games of all time honestly you look at this match

up between lamar jackson and josh allen and uh you know i mean you have a point spread of one that's that's gone across gone across who is actually favored. I think it's got the potential to just be incredible. The one thing I wanted to look at for this game was whether there was any improvement in Baltimore's defense over the course of the year. If you just kind of look at game by game, it certainly looks like there had been a little bit. This defense was amazing last year under mike mcdonald he's obviously gone you have a new coordinator didn't look good at the beginning of the season and when i do this i don't really want to i i didn't want to bias it right i didn't want to be like oh it looked like they started playing good

looks like they started playing better week 10 let's look at there right so i just took it uh first eight games versus the remaining 10. And the results were remarkable. They were, when I look at passing success rate of Justin Verponent, they were 26th over that first eight games. They've actually been the best in the NFL the past 10 games. And I don't want to make too much about this because defensive performance is very volatile. But there is certainly some signal there.

I think this Baltimore defense is playing a lot better. I think that I look, I actually for the year have I actually have Baltimore. Excuse me. I have Buffalo favorite at home in this. I give a little extra home field during the playoffs. And, you know, it's a big deal playing at home for Josh Allen and Buffalo. I do think this Ravens defense is really good. I think that's what's pushing it that way, despite everything that Lamar has done this season. It's been a drastic difference for the Ravens defense in the beginning versus the later part of the season. I want

nothing to do with the spread. I just want to enjoy, hopefully get a great game between, you know, the top two MVP candidates. And I just want to sit back and enjoy. I'm in the same boat, kind of feel that too.

I do lean Buffalo though. Partially that is just me wanting to see Josh Allen, this team kind of take the next steps. I understand why the line moved. I think it makes some sense. Your points on the defensive stuff, Connorson, we've touched on often. I think there are a couple of key trigger points schematically, personnel wise in particular, that are driving that results. You decided to formulate a tweet today around those things. And everyone wants to tell you that it is solely schedule based i think all these things are kind of coalescing at the same time whereas the early

season schedule was a problem but i also think that um you know eddie jackson was a problem uh in the back half you know we see the change with having a really box heavy role for kyle hamilton hamilton moving him back darius was there moving Humphreys into the slot giving Nate Wiggins the keys on the outside and just kind of got all their ducks in a row and that coincided with an easier schedule but you know you noted some stats on that today yep yeah weeks one through ten they made these adjustments in week 11 so exactly I'm a little bit pickier with than Ed is um you know um but they they did make legitimate defensive adjustments in week 11 uh only 183 passing yards per game 39 first and

drop back success rate first in epa weeks 1 through 10 dead last pass yards per game allowed like nearly 300 23rd success rate 30th in epa like significant changes the schedule yes was way way easier but they still played really well so I think that that's like it's worth noting uh people on Twitter will tell me otherwise but whatever they can piss off so um yeah I for me though I like Baltimore I just can't get around this feels like a fool me once fool me twice thing I liked Buffalo a lot last time uh Baltimore's defense has gotten way better than last time. Their offense still, I think, has schematic advantages. I love Buffalo as a team, but give me

Baltimore here. Ed, we appreciate you greatly and your time. Let folks know where they can find all your stuff here because I know you've got to run. Guys, thank you so much for having me on. The best place to check out my stuff is my newsletter newsletter so check

that out at powerrank.com uh five nuggets saturday is my promise that i'll get you something sharp to bet that weekend often it uh requires texting one of these two gentlemen and uh seeing what they're on over the weekend um yeah and guys i mean i i try to i try to listen to the Friday show as much as possible. Sometimes I do it for Nugget, sometimes not. So, I mean, anyone who's listening to the show, know that you guys know what you guys are doing, but I follow you guys' stuff closely, and it doesn't end up in my stuff. We appreciate that.

As always, we're going to be joining Ed here, coming up for the Super Bowl on Ed's channel, doing some prop discussions for the Super Bowl. I cannot wait for that. Can't wait. Yeah, thank you guys. At the Power Rank on Twitter. Ed, appreciate it, buddy.

Thank you guys so much. All right, Connor, anything else for the people before we wrap it up? No, let's get it. Let's win some money this weekend and let's get rich. Absolutely love it. Again, don't forget to come back on friday uh prop drop show again 3 p.m eastern wherever you listen to the podcast move the line four four four youtube uh four four bets on the youtube channel and again four four dot com slash plans again less than 20 bucks 16.99 for you to come and get some bets with us this week uh connor

just continues to push out these just disgustingly gross unders that are hitting at like 66 percent rate this year 67 percent rate i mean bonkers absolutely love to see it so um again super duper cheap you're gonna get that paid for very quickly in returns even you know we have three more weeks of a football you know We'll have a pretty extensive Super Bowl menu. Obviously, we've got the four games this week, the two next week. Again, low bar to join and jump in and get a sense of what that looks like. Great community as well.

Those guys are grinding all sorts of... You want all your sick hour, two minutes before the game starts, parlays. We've got all those guys in there pumping out lots of good stuff too. So a great community that we highly suggest you check out. Hit that subscribe. Hit that thumbs up

before you take off. So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks Ed.