Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Divisional Round NFL BETTING GUIDE: Best BETS, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: January 17, 2024

Unleash your betting potential with our ULTIMATE Wild Card NFL BETTING GUIDE! Dive into expert insights on the best BETS, latest Odds, and accurate Predictions for an exciting NFL Divisional Round week. Featuring a special focus on the Houston Texans, this is your go-to source for smart, informed NFL betting picks and strategies. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the game, get ready to amplify your NFL betting experience. Don't miss out on valuable tips and analysis.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan  Follow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  / sharpclarkenfl  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by my friends to talk sides and totals for the divisional round here of the playoffs. Joining me as always, Connor Allen. Connor, what's going on, buddy? Not a whole lot. It was an interesting week last week. I sent you guys a screenshot, but usually what I like to do is I obviously play all the sides and totals and leans that we talk about on the show. And I had two left for Monday and I hit all the rest of them. And of course, both those two lost. So it was one of those where I got excited. I was like, oh, because I parlayed them all too, just for fun for a couple of bucks. And that would have obviously had some reasonable winnings in the end and the last two lost. So it

was still a profitable week on the sides and totals end, but not quite as big as I'd hoped. It's a good week overall i know uh gentleman who had a good week too is uh sharp clark what's going on bud speaking of which i forget there we go not much i yeah it was a great week i mean like i don't have any spicy takes like packers money line this week but um you know that was my biggest bet of the year and big spot in my life actually and so that was very satisfying to have a wire to wire winner. And then the other games went really well as well. So it was just I really enjoyed Wild Card Weekend, not just for winning bets, but also just watching good quarterback play from primarily CJ Stroud, Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, even Baker Mayfield played fairly well.

And Jared Goff played pretty well too. So I think just the quality of quarterback play was more exciting than we've seen in the regular season. That was good. You had your biggest bad of your life. The gatekeepers must be in shambles. No, they're never in shambles. Oh man. You're not supposed to have good weeks, man. You're a fraud and a terrible person for being

nice you're a terrible person for being nice damn it i hate that about you i know and i gotta be meaner yeah it's all just this big just facade i'm tired of it tired of it clark uh no people need to log off and get a life but anyway the three of us are going to continue to be here every wednesday this is uh 4 p.m eastern on our 444 bats youtube channel whether you're watching us because you like us or you hate us we appreciate it subscribe like all the things before you leave uh we appreciate it the podcast is available uh later on in the evening wherever you listen to podcasts free content supporting it goes a long way in helping us do the things that we want to do here at 444.

In terms of tools, content, all those things, the likes and all those things go a long way in helping us. So please do that. If you like props, Connor, myself, John Hyslop on Fridays, same YouTube channel, same podcast feed, Fridays at 3 p.m. Eastern. Come back. We will have props for you there as well. If you want to get the official plays, you want to get access to all that we do you need the betting subscription at four for four it is obviously massively discounted because we are coming up to the end of the season uh the subscription takes you to the end of february so you will get some nba you'll get some mma from us as well along with obviously the rest of the nfl season uh but next season you want to maybe check us out this

will give you a little bit of an idea of what it looks like. It gets you access to all the articles, tools, rankings, projections, like I said, covering all the sports. And really the subscriber Discord is the crown jewel of the sub. That's where all the official plays are pushed out. Great conversations all the time. Very like-minded community who's always looking to get down and find an edge. Definitely, I think, worth your time. You can go to 444.com slash plans to check it out.

It is just $19.99 for the rest of the season. Super cheap. Gets you access and get a sense of what we are doing over there. And I think you will enjoy it. All right, guys. We had a good football last weekend. Season ended for a bunch of teams, though. Browns, Dolphins, Cowboys, Ramsams steelers eagles all packed it up uh we're

going to touch on the teams here shortly that knocked them out but before we do i want to see if you guys have any thoughts or any takeaways about those teams that were eliminated whether it was game specific that we saw things that we should see moving forward because i think some of these teams have some pretty massive uh conversations have, whether it's coaching changes, quarterback changes. Again, anything you saw in the field or looking ahead into in the offseason here, Clark, I'll start with you. Yeah, I mean, let's talk about the Eagles. I mean, I obviously was not as high on them last year as most people. So maybe that colors my perception of them.

But I think their season this year was simply a result of heightened expectations that were not justified in the first place. You know, if a team goes 11 and 6, and granted they had an embarrassing playoff loss, but even in that playoff loss, they were banged up. A.J. Brown matters a ton. But a season like that is typically considered a fairly good season by most standards.

But because of how good they were last year, at least in the record, against a really easy schedule, and then they had two easy playoff games, and then they played their best game of the year in the Super Bowl, it led them to think that they were the quality of team that will be perennial Super Bowl contenders. They paid Jalen Hurts as if he was an elite quarterback, and then they tried to run it back and then they started out doing well, and then they failed down the stretch. And that is the ultimate example of a team that just fails to meet expectations. They have a lot to fix. Their play calling was terrible. Their defensive effort was terrible. And I don't think that they're close. I don't think that this was a minor blip that where, well, they just got to get healthy, get A.J. Brown back, and they'll

get it all together. I think Jason Kelsey retiring is massive. It might even take away the strength of the brotherly shove. Jalen Hurts' inability to run this year, whether it was injury or just stylistic or whatever, their offense was not working. Their defense was terrible. And I think they're much further away from being a contender than they thought they were to start the year. And I'm not sure what the solution is for them. So I I'd be fine if I was an Eagles fan, if they fired Sirianni and started over, I don't think that this is a patch the holes and,

and kind of move on kind of situation. I think this is a serious deficiency that they have on that team. Yeah. It's interesting. I mean, the Jalen hurts thing is, is, and I think you made a good point,

you know, in a, in a tweet around, like we just see in terms of quarterbacks on the second, second contracts, kind of conversation I've had with a lot of bears fans, you and Connor and I are here locally in Chicago, though not bears fans and taking the temperature of people. And Dan in the chat is the season of lies already starting with the bears

trading the first pick. The conversation is, do you think that, you know, for me, Hey, do you think that fields is a guy that can win on a second contract because that's really where you're going to have to be and you build a winner around him uh on the second deal it's just really hard historically you just have a few outliers um tom brady who just consistently took less than market uh you know average to be able to allow the team to do that and exceeded expectations all the time. There just are a handful that have done in the last 20, 25 years. Hurts thing, he was clearly hurt.

They had cluster injuries at times at receiver, and I think that that mattered too. You make some points that I think are interesting. I mean, defensively, we knew that they weren't going to be able to hold up to this insane sack rate that they had the year before because their pressure rate didn't even really match it. So that came crashing back down to earth. They were picked apart. You look in hindsight, linebackers devalue position across the league,

but they had a couple of good ones last year. They didn't this year. Had massive injuries where they were rotating fourth and fifth linebackers out. were so excited that they signed Shaq Leonard couldn't even get on the field uh was really kind of a liability when he did uh you know so maybe they address some things in the middle of the field differently um I think they're probably closer than you do I do think that the hurts obviously couldn't I just think he couldn't run like we didn't see the stuff outside the tackle box uh that we saw last year where he would like extend plays uh and extend yards put his shoulder down and run like he just didn't have it and he would slide you know quicker than normal i think that was an element that they were severely missing but yeah i mean

it's the question about roster construction outside of the second contract that i think is going to be interesting to them connor what what are your takeaways with some of the six that were eliminated here? Yeah, it's interesting because most of the teams left that we haven't talked about are significant underperformers. You talked about the Dolphins, I think the Cowboys, the Eagles, but an overperformer, the Rams are really interesting. I think they were a great litmus test this year for how much star players matter. And then how much, if one or two ancillary guys can step up, like you have a good team all of a sudden,

man, you know, Matthew Stafford is, you know, basically a King maker, Puka Nakua stepped up in a big way and, you know, broke through all the metrics,

any of that, like that did basically didn't even matter. And then their defense, just Aaron Donald made plays and they played a little bit better. They played like kind of passive defense and kept the ball in front of them and just tried to do their best. And it like resulted in a, I guess, good outcome here. A playoff experience, I think, is really strong relative to expectations for them. So just something to keep in mind, I think, going forward for us handicapping and just everyone else looking at it.

The Dolphins are really interesting, too, because it outlied the fragility without, you know, a full receiving core for Tua Tungvaluwa. Just Tyreek Hill. Couldn't get it done against a good defense. And on the other side, their defense, I think could actually still be good next year. It's just that they were injured the entire year, right? When they finally started getting healthy, like four, four more guys got injured. So I think that's something to kind of put, hold in their back pockets as well. And lastly, the Browns.

Um, I mean, it's really tough. They have a good defense, but they have, they're not very flexible given what they have with the Sean Watson, Joe Flacco looks at the best quarterback that they've had in, I don't even know, five years, like years, like a long, long time. And then it's like a six game sample where he ends it with throwing multiple picks and looking terrible. So, you know, I don't know. They got, they got a lot of decisions on their hands and it's something that's going to be

a really, really tough team for me next year. I already know it because I don't have a ton of faith based on what we've seen from watson this year yeah no those are good points uh the dallas situation i think is is interesting like um you know the coaching change there seemed imminent like it really didn't matter it's one of those scenarios with like even dac being an mvp candidate it was all going to just come down to what do you do in the 60 minutes chunk of time that you're going to get in that whatever playoff game is maybe you get two 60 minute chunks but like what do you have what happens in the one it went pretty poorly which is obviously a very difficult way to grade anyone's

performance uh but you know if you're a cowboys fan you know easy for us to say we're not in your shoes uh having to watch yet another playoff disappointment it's been pretty tough but yeah brown situation's wild. Pittsburgh, I kind of touched on last week. What do you do at quarterback? You made a choice with a healthy Kenny Pickett. It was in his second year that you wanted to roll with Mason Rudolph in a playoff game. What do you do next year?

Just open competition? That's not great. But yeah, I mean, Mason Rudolph was better than Kenny Pickett this year. I know it was only four games and there were some favorable defensive matchups for sure but he was getting the ball out and like accurately he was getting the ball to his playmakers and the studios have playmakers so something kenny pick up wasn't really able to do when he was in there i get why they stuck with him i just don't think that rudolph is a long-term solution But it feels like at best, that's a competition.

Rudolph's not probably walking into... They had Rudolph at three. That's what their team had in terms of their player eval in season was they had him behind Trubisky. I can't think that they feel super good about just passing the keys to Mason Rudolph and be like, oops, sorry, we messed up

for a couple of years. Here you go. You get a shot to give it a go, but yeah. Interesting conversations for all those teams. Some of the, you know, iconic franchises in the sports. I will say that the one that I'm least worried about in the short term is Miami. I think their, their offensive scheme and they should have Terry kill and jail and water back next year. You know,

I don't know how many more years Terry kills going to play, but with those guys and Devon HN, the speed that those guys bring to the field and what McDaniel was able to do with them, they negated having a beat up offensive line all year and still put together one of the better offenses in the league. And then on defense, they were starting to play really, really well. And then suffered just an un, you know, unins suffered just an uninsurmountable amount of

defensive injuries. So get that one out on the defensive front and in the secondary and linebacker. So I think if they get healthy on defense, get everyone back. I think they are a team that doesn't need to blow anything up. The big question is how much do they want to pay to it or do they want to let them play on the fifth year? But I think that's a team that should be thinking, okay, we're right back in this. Like this is our window. Some of those other teams, you know, have bigger questions. Yeah.

It should be the off season is almost here. We talked about pre-show. Like all of a sudden some of the work stops and all of a sudden there's like, wait, there's going to be new work to be done. Because the off season is right around the corner. But but for now four games to break down four divisional weekends and we will start with the first game on saturday two on saturday with the number one seeds and then two great games on sunday as well houston on the road in baltimore we were all pro houston coming into the season but not host and win a playoff game pro.

It was more just pushing towards their win total, maybe six, seven wins. If CJ Stroud was the guy, we have that answer. He is very much the guy. They are now back in Baltimore where the season began in week one. We have the top seeded Ravens coming off of that little rest. They opened up here as an eight and a half point favorite. We've been bet out to nine and a half minus one across the market there are some potential weather concerns here that i

think have impacted the total which is down to 43 and a half pretty significant after opening at 46. uh clark i will let you get started here uh stroud and the texans in baltimore what do you got yeah this this number the total and spread combination is disrespectful to CJ Stroud. I mean, I get it. Weather can impact scoring. But CJ Stroud has done nothing short of be an elite quarterback this year. And I feel confident that he is the guy. He is him.

He is the next competitor in the AFC who's going to be in the mix with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence each year. There's going to be these guys, and he's one of them. And I think that if you look at the Baltimore defense, which is admittedly very tough, I mean, the Browns defense was tough, but most of their dominant performances had come against bad offenses. And so I was a little bit skeptical in that one of whether or not they could stop a quarterback like CJ Stroud. The Ravens have done some damage against some good offenses, particularly Detroit, Miami, and San Francisco. But the thing is Detroit, Miami, and San Francisco are picture perfect examples of

successful schemes with a basically hiding the quarterback. Like the quarterback is fine, but it's all about the scheme and getting the ball to the weapons. And the Ravens have disrupted those types of offenses. The Texans are the exact opposite they are elite quarterback play throwing downfield and punishing the defense and I think that's a different style and I think the Ravens might have their hands full with CJ Stroud in this one even without Noah Brown even without Tank Dell CJ Stroud has actually been fairly resilient to losing individual weapons. His really bad game came in the elements against the Jets with no weapons, basically. I think he started with just Nico, and then Nico got hurt. And that was a disaster of a game.

But I think against probably the best defense in the NFL in the elements, I think it's a little bit different than not quite as bad weather. And then a Ravens defense is not quite as good as the Jets in terms of playmakers downfield. So I think the Texans offense is live here, but you know, weather may impact it. The Ravens are a very good team, but I also think that Lamar, he struggles a little bit with weather. He played well against the Rams this year, but he's had some games in the past where the weather has caused some fumbled snaps and some mistakes like that, where he gets a little careless with the ball. He's also been more reliant on downfield passing this year than he has in

previous years. And so whether it's just going to impact that type of offense a bit more, I think they're going to miss keeping Mitchell on this one. But if the Ravens can establish the run against a good Texans run defense, then I think. All right. Clark got blown up there. He's going to come back in the middle of his Texans run defense than I think. All right. Clark got blown up there.

He's going to come back in with middle of his, his Texans run. D take they're good. The run D is very, very good. I would think what he was touching on to Connor, which is interesting is regardless of really who they've played, how they've got here has been based off of Stroud's ability to in just consistently,

regardless of who's in and out of the lineup, generate explosive pass plays through the air. They are second in explosive pass rate on the season. This is strength versus strength, though, as Clark was touching on, too. When Baltimore's in their base defense, which is a look that they're in like 73% of the snaps so far this season, they've allowed the lowest rate of explosive pass plays on the year. So we need basically C.J. Stroud's best ball of the season here, I think, to keep it close.

But it's within the range of outcomes, as long as the elements get too crazy here. What are your thoughts on this matchup? Yeah, so I kind of agree with Clark in a couple of different ways. But the biggest angles that I thought, and that's what leads me towards Houston at plus 9 and a half is that their run defense is good, but not only are they good, they're good against RPOs. They're good against like out of the gun. So against RPOs, they're allowing less than three yards per carry. Um, and out of the gun,

they're still number one yards per carry allowed. So that kind of leads me to the only bad games they played has basically been against Indianapolis twice. Like those are the most rushing yards they played and spent twice and against Indianapolis. That's the only bad games they played has basically been against Indianapolis twice. Like those are the most rushing yards they played and spent twice and against Indianapolis. That's the only team out of the entire season that's basically been able to thwart them. So can Baltimore scheme something up that's similar? I mean, maybe, but I really haven't been all that impressed with their run game regardless, to be honest, which may sound a little bit weird, but it's not, it didn't, doesn't look the same as it did with Greg Roman, which I know Greg Roman catches a lot of flack for

not being able to pass the ball well, which totally warranted. But the run game was at least somewhat creative. They were able to leverage a few more things. I haven't really been all that impressed. I think that's a pretty big edge for Houston here, which also puts a lot of pressure on Lamar, a guy who has, I believe it was the Football Outsiders guy said, the worst DYAR in playoff history so far as quarterback.

Really just hasn't been all that good. Now he gets Houston, though. 23rd in explosive pass rate. Not really all that good. Play a lot of zone. And so I think that's kind of an issue here is that I expect Lamar to have a success passing the ball, but I don't expect them to run the ball really well and consistently, which I think kind of hurts their ability to maintain and sustain a lead here,

unless they're just like going bananas like literally the entire game, which I think kind of hurts their ability to maintain and sustain a lead here, unless they're just like going bananas, like literally the entire game, which is possible. But again, I just don't think that that's really consistent here. And then the other side, the real reason I like Houston is that I expect the Houston office to have success here. And so a couple of different reasons why. So they play zone 71% of the time, which is one of the highest rates in the league, as well as too high. And both those marks are pretty well above average. Stroud against those looks, 69% completion rate, over 8.7 yards per attempt against zone. And then against too high, 67% completion rate, 11 touchdowns, three interceptions. Baltimore second in pressure in the league. Stroud fourth best completion rate under pressures, ninth best completion rate out of earth, fourth best completion yards per attempt

under pressure. Still good marks against pressure, good against zone. Like, I understand that he doesn't have his full arsenal of weapons, but I expect them to move the ball here. Not to mention, this Baltimore run defense is not nearly as good as their past events. I mean, they're like 21st in success rate. So it's really one of those things that I think they can move the ball, maybe not routinely, but there will be good plays come by. And the other side, you know, Baltimore will have some struggles running the ball here.

So I think that Houston plus 9.5 half i think that houston's team total it's 16 and a half is a little bit low maybe even the over like you know i get like i think there is a range of outcomes where maybe baltimore drops like 35 on them just because they're gunning the ball down field oh it outcomes the life things like that but i also expect houston put to push back at least pretty well but um i think all of those are in play i put a little sprinkle on each one but i think they're all solid books click i'll kick it back to you uh you lost it for i think the end of your thoughts there uh but yeah this is an interesting thing here too which i really just want to mention real quick this happens every all the time this used to be a real like it would happen often because we have this scenario where we have these teams we haven't seen and it's really

it's interesting to like try to check yourself to not be a prisoner of the moment where this team is has performed well enough to advance uh and they are obviously coming off of probably some good play down the stretch to get them into the playoffs and then they go ahead and they win and now they get the team that again has to play meaningful football in a couple of weeks and i'm trying to be really cognizant of evaluating and handicapping these games and not being a prisoner of the moment, especially with the two Saturday games, because we have the teams that are coming off of a bye that didn't have to

really play in week 18 either. But I think both of you are making really good points. And I think kind of solidifying where I am on some of this produce and stuff that I have, but go ahead. I'll kick it back to you and let you kind of round up your thoughts. Yeah, I'm with connor i'm on the texans here the reason is i don't see a huge matchup advantage either way that's kind of what i was breaking down earlier my numbers pure numbers make it seven and a half so i think there's a little bit of value there it's not you know the eight and nine aren't huge numbers but they're enough for me to make the bet

um and i think when you're talking about not being the prisoner of the moment, you have to consider the context, right? This isn't a team where we have a bunch of evidence and they've been playing outlier good football for the last couple games. This is a brand new team, a brand new quarterback, coach, offense coordinator combination that has played its best football in the last few weeks. And when we see this where rookies take time to ramp up and then really play their best at the end of the year, it's typically a good sign that they, they underwent growth. They got comfortable with who they are and what they do,

what they can, what they're capable of. So in this case, I actually do think you should wait the performance in the playoffs as part of your input for this game, because it's meaning it's a meaningful part of who CJ Stroud is and who this offense is. So for that reason,

I do think that this number is a little high. I mean, look at it this way. Who's better, the Steelers or the Texans? Okay. And then who's better, Bills or Ravens? It's a question that we might have to get. Right now, you would say the Ravens, right? Yeah.

It's interesting. But the gap between the Steelers and Texans is large. The gap between the Ravens and Bills, whichever way you put it, is tiny. And we were giving 10 last week to the Steelers against the Bills, and now we're giving nine and a half to the Texans against the Ravens.

I just think that it's too generous. It implies that the Ravens dominating the 49ers was the definition of who they are when they were five and a half point underdogs in that game. And I bet them as underdogs in that game because five and a half was too many. But that doesn't mean that they are better than the 49ers because they won one game. They're still the Ravens.

And in that game, their offense actually struggled quite a bit. They had some very short fields due to turnovers by Purdy. It wasn't a very dominant performance by their offense. So I think this is a – it's just giving too much credit to the Ravens for what they've shown on the field so far this year. There's also a three. So this is the first of three rematches, I believe on the week. I don't know if you mentioned that already, but it's one of those things where this was week one. I mean, this was CJ Stroud's first game. Tank Dell was not even a thing, you know, like it's Bobby Sloak was calling his first game like ever you know like I think almost

all of that and even early in the season it's been kind of a roller coaster and it's I think it's expected though I mean you imagine like literally the Texans playing a game against the Ravens who we didn't think were going to be very good but wound up being one of the best units in the league and now you know in week one in their first game for all those different guys like of course in hindsight they're going to struggle in that first game, but now you're getting them where they've been playing way better. They've kind of been finding their rhythm. Like I think the expectation should be way higher.

And it's one of those things where we saw it kind of last week with the Eagles and the bucks that just because we saw, you know, something happened before with this matchup doesn't mean that the current iteration is what we can expect again, from a usage standpoint, from, you know,

a play calling standpoint. I think there are a lot of iterations that need to be taken with context there. So I think it's just something worth noting and evaluating independently as well as together to see if it has any merit to see what they did last time. Yeah, all very good points. As you know, and Connor can attest to,

we've watched some football together over the last couple of years. My brain is broken with the way that I watch games now because of you know sweating tackle props um which is you know just how i watch i'm looking at like three snap stuff um trying to see where guys are lined up sometimes seeing if guys are on the field just trying to look at things seeing things a little bit different um jano is you know probably very to typically look at the ball, but I noticed something and picked it up around the second half, um, that the Texans were doing something very different, um, with their safeties free and post snap. Um, oh, we got animals dropping in. We got,

we got, we got cats coming in. Um, yeah. So I noticed that the the texans were doing something very very different uh post snap with their safeties and then uh that actually is kind of when you started to see things spiral for joe flacco and then i found uh shout out to pff who's had a rough day you know pff you know jj wad dragon out there man just catching strays pff sam like i love sam sam's incredibly smart i love listening to him talk football uh tough scene you know with getting dragged on uh mcafee and such but anyway shout out pff uh there was an article actually kind of capturing some of what we were seeing with our eyes um it was something that was very very new to how the texans have been playing and

part of that is because they are also getting healthy on that side of the ball which is something that they did not have early in the season they were dealing with injuries as well in the secondary both like their top defensive ends uh you know will anderson jr and jonathan granard missed a bunch of time like sheldon rankin's in and out of the lineup rotations at linebacker were kind of tough to suss out early so now they were healthy they got everyone in their spots um you know desmondmond King was out for a while, has been locked down, you know, in the slot. Anyway, they started switching pre-snap or post-snap middle of the field changes. And when you saw earlier, they did nothing post-snap

and they got cooked by Flacco and actually broke it down once they started making this change. So early in the game, when they didn't do anything, Flacco had an 88.5% completion percentage, nine and a half yards per attempt and had like a normal time to throw. And the second half, when they started messing around,

his grade fell to a 36 passing grade, 55% completion percentage. That's where both the pick sixes came in three yards per attempt down from nine and a half yards per attempt to three yards per attempt. They didn't score. And his average time to throw was almost three seconds. That's a big time problem. Now this is new.

This is not something that the Texans have done all season. And that kind of speaks to them getting a little bit healthy. Early in the season, they were like 30th in the league in post-snap movement at the safety position in cover two. But they lead the league over the last like five weeks in doing this. And this is something that Lamar has massively struggled with throughout his career. When anytime there's any type of like safety post-snap movement, it makes sense, right? It's just like movement on the offensive side where you're able to kind of just see the guys are lining up

and having to account for like pre-snap motion. It totally changes the landscape. Lamar's really struggled. His passing grade is really poor. It's like 35th out of 51 quarterbacks with a hundred dropbacks over the last three years. He is like bottom 10 in completion percentage, the 10th most turnover worthy plays.

Like all this stuff is a problem for Lamar. So it just kind of adds to the 9.5 is probably not being the person at the moment. It's probably just too big of a number for the way the Texans are playing right now on both sides of the ball. So I think we all kind of like Stroud. I think the defense isn't really getting the credit that it deserves as well. So yeah, I think 9.5 is probably the right side here. You know, I think 8.5 was like probably pretty popular. They wanted to move off of 8.5 because you kind of probably the right side here. I think 8.5 was probably pretty popular.

They wanted to move off of 8.5 because you kind of take the teaser leg out. But I'm not even super excited about Baltimore at 2.5. I think the Texans are alive. Now I'm not playing money line, but I think they're alive. This is not like a – I think it's an exciting time to be part of that franchise, and I think they're going to show up pretty well as long as i think the elements don't get too too wonky here so defense matters guys all right you guys gave all your all your thoughts for that one we'll move on to again uh another great one we don't want to be prisoner of the moment we had a team coming off

of a great win green bay on the road in in San Francisco. I felt really good about my Green Bay plus 7.5 ticket pretty early in that game. Not as good as Clark with his money line play. Took a stand here. Great job handicapping that and why he was backing the Packers on the money line. Man, that was a wild, wild game. We saw some 10s in the market here briefly. This is now San Francisco minus 9.5 across the market. Pretty healthy total here as well, Connor.

50 and a half. What are your thoughts here on Packers and Niners? Yeah, I was just really surprised at how the Cowboys consistently ran the ball on first down. And like, I think that over the past few years, you could run the ball very easily on the Packers. And, you know, I think that's still true in some senses. But the biggest edge we're seeing right now is just the Packers' inability to defend the pass on first down. A lot of that's with them, at least in my opinion, and a non-ball-knowing defensive guy.

They play a lot of base, basically, and their linebackers end up in a lot of disadvantageous spots. We saw it multiple times with CeeDee Lamb. We've seen it throughout the season. But if we look at this Packers' defense on first down this season, allowing 8.6 yards per attempt, which is 26, 71% completion rate, which is 28, dead last success rate, 58% success rate, a lot of first down. Now we're matching that up against the 49ers who are very, very agnostic to playing against their matchups. They will run the piss out of the ball if they have to.

They'll pass a bunch if they have to. And I think this matchup calls for a lot of early down passes here. Brock Purdy on first down the season leads the league in passing yards, leads the league in yards per attempt, completion rate and success rate in literally all those categories here. And then on top of all this, you have a Packers defense that's not very good at defending passes over the middle, allowing 9.9 yards per attempt and 71% completion rate. So it's like all of these things here adding up to, it's a big advantage for 49ers. If they're going to attack the middle of the field, if they're going to tap, push the ball downfield early in the game, uh, you know, I think that the Niners score pretty handily here.

Now, the reason that I'm not, you know, pounding the Niners minus nine and a half into oblivion is because I think that the, I think that the Packers might be able to score here too, because we saw them last week. We knew that one of the biggest edges would be in the running game. I thought that maybe the Cowboys would be able to figure something out or maybe load the box for sure and love to do some things. They had no idea. They, the Packers ran 12 personnel, one of the highest rates in the league or highest

rates for the season. And they just ran the ball every single play so successfully. Aaron Dizzle hasn't even touched on some plays. I don't think they're gonna be able to do that against 49ers, but still 49ers are like 20th in success rate so far, um, right against the run. They're not awesome. Um, so it's like one of those things where I don't think that I think that the,

the Packers are going to run the ball. He's reasonably well, and Jordan love in the way that Malifleur is schemed up. Everything's been really impressive. So I think they'll have some success passing the ball too. So it's like one of those things where I lean towards the over, but I think 49ers team total at 29 and a half, 30 and a half,

both very strong here. I mean, I, I just am willing to go back to the wild here. he over but i think 49ers team total at 29 and a half 30 and a half both very strong here i mean i i just am willing to go back to the wild here even after we saw them just give the cowboys a lot of problems that uh the 49ers are gonna figure out a lot more on the against this packers defense the cowboys did so that's that's my favorite angle yeah i kind of agree with that too i mean you could run on the backers um dallas struggled to run the ball all season And then like That was really off the table pretty early In last week's game because The game just got kind of out of whack

And then you forced Dak to play one handed And that just Very problematic I just don't think that the Niners If the Niners can avoid falling behind Massively early like Dallas did I think they're going to give him more trouble And be able to run the ball here Clark What are your thoughts on this one?

Yeah, I don't have a strong angle on this one. I really like what Connor was saying about how the 49ers offense is built to basically punish the Packers defense. I completely agree with that. And I think one of the keys that I look at when there's a big spread like this and the underdog has a good offense is does the opposing offense make mistakes? And the answer for the 49ers this year has been no. When good defenses force them to make mistakes like the Ravens did, they make mistakes. But against bad defenses, they're just so methodical. Their throws are so low risk. I mean, it's not based on an elite quarterback hitting

tight windows and evading pressure. It's built on point and shoot. That guy has five yards of separation. Here you go, buddy. And that should work against Green Bay. And so when that's the case, and they're laying almost 10 against a really good explosive offense that I don't want to be sweating out a backdoor cover with a Niners minus nine and a half ticket late in this one, because I really do think Jordan Love is that guy that can put those points up. So this is kind of like the market got this one right, in my opinion. I do think that the 49ers are a little bit underrated,

but as much as I love the Packers and as much variance as they have, and similar to what we're saying about CJ Stroud, I think Jordan Love playing his best football towards the end of the year is signal, not variance. It's enough to keep me off of the 49ers in this one. And I've got futures on both teams, more exposure to the 49ers,

but I'll be rooting for the 49ers to win so that they can keep that future alive i think carter's point's correct i think probably my favorite look would be even though it's a massive number would be niners team total because they just i don't know when the packers bring five or more uh they allow the highest success rate in the league 57.4 percent probably like if you allow purdy to sit clean and don't bring pressure he's going to pick you apart too because they can win in so many different spots. Where again, we knew Dallas' offense had a ceiling, maybe not the ceiling that the Niners did.

They could go to more guys than CeeDee Lamb, but we knew it felt like even the broadcast was forcing it down our throat. There was something wrong there. They got to get CeeDee involved. Look at the two of them like talking why would they be talking so much like it was just like the strangest thing it was like i mean their teammates they probably talk a lot like you know i don't know it just was a really weird thing but like obviously the niners part of the appeal there and why they're so good is so many ways that they could beat you so um i don't think that the packers defense even if you think that they somehow are have found something and they're going to be better it's

probably true they did a great job um like really offensive line wise of like neutralizing micah parsons as well one pressure for parsons in a playoff game kind of talked about that it's kind of our handicap is how strong the offensive line has been in terms of keeping love clean and when they he does get pressure he attacks deep it's really hard to do against a front like the niners to have again more ways than one to win uh so game planning specifically versus just kind of game planning to shut down one guy i think is going to be a problem here too so yeah niners team total i lean niners nine and a half i do kind of agree with clark it's probably the right number um i imagine you get a good amount of buyback if we push to 10 again so yeah even if we're pushing to 30 you know that's probably the right side on the team

total for the niners so just want to advance to be honest i think they should probably be in the super bowl and i kind of want to see him in the super bowl, I think there's gonna be a lot of offense in the game. My my worry about the total being above 50 is both teams really draw out drives. Like, you know, we get to halftime and both teams have touched the ball twice each. You know, I wouldn't be overly shocked. So that's kind of keeping up. Yeah, I think we're gonna see to I think we saw in a couple games with the Niners. But basically basically that's like they start under center with like CMC in the single back and then they, you know, audible, it's basically do a shotgun and then like put CMC like in the slot.

Like I think that is going to give the Packers an unbelievable amount of problems just based on how their defense runs. So I'm willing to put, you know, a couple of bucks that we'll see that on the first drive. And I would be pretty surprised if we don't, if we do see that, I think it's pretty good signal for the Niners kind of executing what, at least the advantages that we see, but either way, I think it's gonna be a great game. And like you said, love is, you know, love, love is legit. And I, you know, was not a believer always, but I think being able to adjust to the new information that we've seen

with the young receiving core and how the floor is like, you know, it's been scheming things up really well too. Guys are open. It's all clicking for him. Yeah, I think Kyle Shanahan versus Joe Barry is one of the bigger coaching mismatches we've seen this playoffs. Sometimes it is that simple, I think. All right, next. Not have this in my playoff bingo matchup heading into the season.

Tampa Bay on the road in Detroit. It's opened with the Lions as a six-point favorite. It's been battled up to six and a half. Total is held steady at 48 and a half. Connor touched on a rematch from week six. Pretty underwhelming. 20-6 win for the Lions. Again, I didn't watch the week six game thinking this was a precursor

to an inevitable playoff rematch but uh here we are some feel good stuff on both sides lions is awesome uh capturing their first playoff win in decades baker mayfield managed to hold off kyle trask over the summer to earn a job he's probably gonna have heading into 2024 so good vibes all around uh clark i'll kick it to you let you get started for uh bucks and lions what do you got yeah in the last three games let's take a look at the bucks offense uh three games ago they entered the fourth quarter against new orleans with zero points and then in the final week of the regular season they scored nine points against the panthers with

a million opportunities and then last week against philadelphia they exploded on offense and both of those games were meaningful for the bucks they were both winning in playoff games like these these mattered and they were terrible on offense and so the question is was baker mayfield hurt in those two games and playing through injury playing gritty and just kind of dealing with it and then was healthy for the Eagles game or is Baker Mayfield just not that good. And the Eagles defense gave up and he capitalized with some big plays, you know, against tacklers that had no interest in tackling.

Obviously that's an exaggeration and it's somewhere between the two. He has been dealing with injury, but I think how you answer that question matters because if, if you peg it on the Eagles defense and say that, well, they just weren't ready for that game, whatever, they weren't motivated, something's going wrong with them, then there's no reason to think the Bucs offense is any good right now. But if you're saying that it was just a two-game lull for the offense when Baker Mayfield was hurt, then I think you can dig back further and see that they were playing fairly well down the stretch. Baker Mayfield was throwing the ball deep. And then

last week, we saw a high pass rate over expectation from Dave Canales, which isn't something we haven't seen during the season. And so if all that is signal and it shows that they're comfortable with Mayfield and that he's healthy, then I think the Bucs offense has a chance to capitalize against this Lions defense. But I think if I had to choose one of those two things, I would choose against it. The Lions defense is underrated at this point. They're finally healthy. Aline McNeil's back. Their secondary's healthy. And people just keep talking about them like some kind of defense you can just pass all over and do whatever you want. But what I saw from Matthew Stafford last week was an elite quarterback making elite throws, like five or six of those throws were not throws Baker Mayfield has in his arsenal,

even on a good day. And so I think they're going to need to get an A-plus level game from Baker Mayfield to put up points against the Lions. And then on the other side of the ball, let's look at the Bucs defense. They've been really good down the stretch. I mean, they really do well against the Saints. They completely shut out the Panthers, and then they completely shut down the Eagles, even though they didn't have A.J. Brown. Still, holding them to nine points is impressive. And if you look at who they've had injured over the back, back half of the season, they've, they've been dealing with multiple injuries to key guys, virtually every game. And in the games where they haven't been injured, they've done really well. Remember the Trevor Lawrence game, I think Jack said zero points heading into the fourth quarter of that game. So I think the Bucks

defense is healthy and good. And I think that the way that they blitz negates the offensive line strength, like we saw against the Eagles, because no matter how good your offensive line is, you can only block five guys. You know, you're not getting offensive line and putting up two guys, right? So if you're rushing six,

you have an advantage on the defense, no matter how good the line is. So I think the Bucs are going to blitz again here. And Jared Goff handled it fairly well the first time and has handled it well against Minnesota as well. But I think that Ben Johnson can only do so much and just a few blitzes can get to to Jared Goff and that can make the difference on that side of the ball I saw a tweet that said last week Jared Goff when not pressured was 22 of 22 for whatever yards and touchdowns

and I was like I wonder what his total stats were sure enough 22 of 27 with three sacks and so every time he was pressured it was a negative play for the lions and i think the bucks are gonna get a little more than eight pressures on them than the rams got um so i like both defenses in this matchup uh and even though it's indoors on ford field the total is just too high for a bucks game i think i think i did the math and it was like three or four games all year for the bucks have gone over 48 and a half and so it's giving the lions a lot of credit giving the the over game script a lot of credit and even last week we saw with a completely offensive game still go under the total because you know just things happen like you have to be keep up the pace of scoring points to cover a total this high and i just think that one or both of these

offenses are going to struggle to meet it so i i think the spread is right and i i like under good takes there for sure i i like that you touched on the pass rate over expectation thing versus the eagles and uh it is interesting to see if that was like all right like we have our opponent agnostic game plan that we stick to and um we don't shift based off of you know strength or weaknesses of the defense or is it something where they're like hey look you know the eagles this is how you can kind of attack them and it was encouraging to see because we'll find out because that's kind of what i would expect them to do again because the Detroit run d is pretty solid better than even in the eagles run d uh and you know maybe not as bad in the terms of past defense but still definitely how you beat

the lions we've been targeting them and props all season and in good matchups. We know this has been hard for them to keep up on. So yeah, I mean, I think that it is going to be interesting to see if they keep it up. Now, again, to your point, the question around Baker is still, even though they went deeper down the field, took some more shots, ran more on early downs, he's still like negative 5% completion percentage over expectation. So we're not dealing with the quarterback that's all of a sudden someone who's way different than who we thought he was. more on early downs he's still like negative five percent completion percentage over expectation so we're not dealing with the quarterback that's all of a sudden someone who's way different than who

we thought he was um he still will miss layups um but again like jared or jerry goff cooked in that game too connor um you know again part of it was running back injury situations but in the first matchup he absolutely lit him up so even in the face of a lot of blitzing, he kind of carved them up. Be interesting to see what adjustments are made there. But what are your thoughts here? Yeah, I'm far from a Mayfield stand, but also against the Eagles. I mean, that game wound up being closer than it should have. Honestly, like the Bucs from snap to snap dominated that game.

Mike Evans dropped a touchdown and another bomb. Like, I mean, he could have easily had like 120 yards in that game. So I don't think all of that was on Mayfield, but he definitely didn't look, he looked hurt, you know, in the previous games prior to that. But I do want to add onto what Clark said here specifically against the butt,

the bucks blitzing. So the bucks blitz over 60% of the time last week. And then against this, in this matchup previously, they pressured Jared golf on 12 is 48 dropbacks on those 12, 48 dropbacks. He completed just two of two of eight passes for 23 yards. Uh, was not very good.

Took three sacks, had a four yard scramble. Um, and then if you zoom out and look at his whole season, his splits are super interesting. So obviously there's four different ways to look at it. So it's, uh, a team gets pressure, a team blitzes and gets pressure. A team blitzes and doesn't get pressure. The team just gets pressure without blitzing. So there's like those four different buckets. If you look at Jared Goff in those buckets, when, as long as he's not pressured,

he's great. He's great against the blitz with no pressure. He's totally fine, which makes sense because if they blitz and don't get home, like Joe Goff easily picks them apart, but they blitz and do get home. I mean, he's a cupcake. It's like 40% completion rate. Like, you know, it's, it's a complete disaster. And so I expect them to go blitz heavy again here, but I think that kind of plays into what the Lions are going to do too. So we saw in their first matchup. So David Montgomery, Jameer Gibbs was not active. David Montgomery only played through two quarters, but in the, in the first quarter and a half, they still had 12 dropbacks to seven rush attempts. There were 13% pass order of expectation in that game. You know, the lions were against the buck.

So I think that regardless, even though we have Gibbs, even though we have Montgomery, I think we're going to see probably a little bit more passing here, probably quicker passes as well. He had one of the lowest time to throw of his season for him. He had one of the lowest eight outs of the season for him. The last time they met, he had 44 pass attempts in a game that they won 20 to six where they never trailed. I mean, like maybe it was because they didn't have running backs. That could have certainly been it.

But I also don't think that like they probably, they ran the ball like 18 total times or something like that among their, their running back. So it was crazy, crazy splits there. And I probably see them doing that again. And on the other side where I think I disagree with Clark here is a little bit that the Lions events is definitely healthier than they have been, but that doesn't mean, I mean, since they're by, they've been getting absolutely shredded from a volume perspective and a total and an efficiency perspective, 8.78 yards per attempt, 32nd in EPA per dropback since their buy, 30th in success rate, 299 passing yards per game.

I mean, some of that is volume-based for sure, but I also just don't think that they're that good either. And it's one of those things where I don't want to put too much stock into what we saw last time. So Bucks and the Lions played last time. Baker Mayfield played terrible. He had like 200 yards, was completed like 60% of his passes. But we said the exact same thing about the Eagles last time. And it was like, well,

he didn't play all that good last time. The Eagles were able to run the ball in a Bucs defense that's been really good against the run almost all year. And then the inverse happened because of what we've seen for the last few weeks. And this is one of the prime examples here where I think that the Bucs will that maybe not have an awesome day, like not 400 yards passing yards, but I think, you know, like Baker Mayfield can be successful enough to keep them close. So I like Eileen Bucs plus six for a couple of those reasons here. If they're able to get home with their blitz and if, you know,

they have to have able to have some success passing the ball here, I can see Clark's angle on them, you know, definitely not being as bad as the stats that I laid out in their current iterations are healthier, but I still think that they're, you know, not very good. Interesting. Yeah. I think that, you know, there's like, even though this game to Clark's point in the over, like a ton of passing, which obviously leads to a lot of plays, stopping your clock,

more opportunities, more efficient way to play offense 20 to 6 um so like you know even playing the more efficient way uh and golf cooking essentially right because again they weren't going to hand the craig reynolds all game it was basically like all right let's get the ball down on raw who ate at the like 12 balls for 127 yards or whatever and i imagine that's another spot for them in the slot, especially when they run three wide. He'll be a feature of this offense. But they'll probably feel like a little bit too many points. I'm just interested to see what their game plan is.

If last week's pass rate stuff was sticky, because when you look at Detroit in terms like first down in the first half of games, and that's like a smaller split. But we know at that point in time, the game is still undecided for the most part um lions defensively are second in rush d epa per play like top five and success rate in the same time in terms of past defense they are 28th and passing success rate allowed it's how you beat them so hopefully the box don't get into this run run pass scenario where like they led the league in run-run-pass this season. So last week was a change, yeah.

So hopefully that's what they do, and that makes us competitive. Otherwise, I think this could kind of get away from them. So I think Connor needs that to happen too with the six points. But Clark, what else you got? Give me all the run-run-pass. The other thing is, you know, talking about prisoner of the moment, I think that does apply to Baker Mayfield, right? all the run run pass um the other thing is you know talking about prisoner of the moment i think that does apply to baker mayfield right we have a long career of baker mayfield being a mediocre

quarterback and he's been playing his best football in the last few weeks and people are like or not i guess last you know half of the season and people are all excited about baker mayfield's you know he's established himself as the you know he's his full-time starter now all kind of stuff and we've seen this before. We have evidence, you know, last time they played the Lions, there's all these videos going around of they were so close on these deep balls. And this one would have been a touchdown if it didn't get batted at the line of scrimmage. Guess what?

Baker Mayfield gets his passes batted at the line of scrimmage all the time. Guess what? Baker Mayfield misses downfield all the time. Like these are not aberrations. That's who Baker Mayfield is. So I think there's a little bit of sort of optimism that's generated from recency bias here. And I think Baker Mayfield is still an average at best quarterback.

And that's coming from someone who's been pro Baker his entire career. Like he's finally playing the way that I think he's capable of, but what tends to happen is it swings in the other direction and people forget that like, he's not very good, but I do think he's very good. So, yeah. Yeah.

And we're getting 48 and a half in a game with Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff as the quarterbacks, like to see what they do. Oh, go ahead. I was just going to say a comment here, backing up Clark Stafford and Puka Baker and Evans. I think that's what you were touched on earlier too.

Yeah. Without a doubt. They're going to be a spot where they have to make a decision it's gonna be hard to not keep Baker um and you can get a spot where like now all of a sudden you've extended Baker hopefully maybe he gets a Geno Smith deal which again not great but like you gotta give him something right yeah yeah that'd be right that'd be a case in the air for him yeah he's played really well it's rambling has been better than it's ever been yeah i'm kind of with clark my favorite playing game would probably be the under feels like too many points um i maybe would lean lions but i don't have necessarily an appetite for playing this many points but yeah um props we'll attack it through props so all right yeah we're all over the yeah i think it's an interesting game i mean i think there's a lot depending on how like there's a lot of like assumption of rational

coaching stuff going on that i think is massively impactful to the handicap and we just don't know what's going to happen until the ball gets rolled out there so all right the uh creme de la creme uh at least on paper kansas city at buffalo uh you have heard it by now, and I think it's truly wild. This is Patrick Mahomes' first road playoff game in his career, a testament to how strong they've been and consistent that they've been since he has taken over there. And again, another rematch. We saw this recently.

This is back in mid-December. It was Week 14, 20-17 win for the Bills in Kansas City. I mean, we've seen high leverage games between these two clubs every year since Allen and Mahomes have been in the league. To me, there aren't a lot of nuanced X's and O's here. It feels like the right number. We've kind of touched and tickled three a little bit. We've had some buyback.

We look like we might be moving there again with the way, like it's kind of Buffalo minus two and a half.'s you know juiced out in some spots so like we could be going to three which i think is interesting i think worth noting that isaiah pacheco was not a part of this game back in week 14 when they met uh clark i'll let you get the floor here first for chiefs and bills yeah i mean the billsills and the Chiefs in the regular season and the Chiefs and the Bills in the playoffs. That's the way it's been, right? I actually make this game about one and a half for the Bills. So I do see a little bit of value on the Chiefs, especially once it touches that three. I've been I've been wrestling with the market all week. Every time it's gone to three, I've taken a piece because I do think that, you know, giving, giving three points to Patrick Mahomes, like I understand everyone's like, well, they haven't looked as good this year,

the receivers, this and that, and all that kind of stuff. I'm grading every snap. And I still have the chiefs as the number two or number three offense in the NFL this year only. They are not a disaster on offense. It's just been high leverage plays, the drop from MVS, the penalty on Kadarius Tony to getting the touchdown, things like that have just come at the wrong time. Early in the season, there were more key drops. And I do think that they've struggled in the red zone. Don't get me wrong.

They haven't been as good as they've been in the past, but this is still Patrick Mahomes. This is still Andy Reid. This is still the Chiefs. They are the most experienced and competent offense in the NFL until proven otherwise. When the playoffs come, they play their best football, and I think that they can compete with the Bills here,

and that would be true even if the Bills weren't injured all down the defense. Some of these guys are probably going to come back. Winslow Douglas will probably come back, but they lost another secondary player. He got carted off, and then it was like, well, he's got an ankle sprain. So maybe he'll play. I don't know. Maybe, maybe he won't be a hundred percent linebackers that hurt. And then they weren't able to get pressure on Mason Rudolph last week. And Mason Rudolph, as a result, just picked him apart over the middle, eight yards, 10 yards here,

almost launched a comeback against the bill. So this defense is not set up to succeed against patrick holmes and i think it's just i i don't like oversimplifying handicaps i want to be able to find the you know the non-obvious angle but it's patrick holmes as an underdog in the playoffs sign me up yeah the injuries are a big piece of it um because we have you know concussions in uh secondary uh christian benefit Like we had a bunch of guys, the main starters go down there. We're going to some guys that weren't active last week, getting into it. So that's a real problem on the bill side.

So yeah, it's definitely a part of, we need to see how that shakes out here as the week goes on. Connor, what are your thoughts here? Yeah, it's super interesting because I think that we probably see the bills skew run heavy here against the Chiefs defense that their pass defense has been playing really well. Their run defense has been, you know, pretty average or below average, depending on the metrics you're looking at.

But the issue that I ran into when I was kind of digging more is that the Bills, especially under Joe Brady, have, you know, run a lot of the man gap concepts. They run that like one of the highest rates in the league. The Chiefs are third in defending that in the league. So they're allowing like the third best lowest success rate, you know, against those concepts, which is, you know, over like half the time when they're running that. And so I think that's an interesting point there is that maybe if they're able to stop the run, I mean, I just think it could be a really difficult year for this Buffalo bills team to move the ball consistently compared to what we've seen. And then on the other side, like without just with all the injuries, like I can see Kansas city kind of being a power run team

too. Like if they don't have to pass the ball consistently, if they don't have the, you know, the juice and the weapons that they used to like leaning into the run and then consistently converting on third down when they need to, like, I mean, my homes is very capable of doing that. Like if he needs to be the best game manager in the world, he can do that if he needs to. And so I, and I think that this is pretty interesting here for Kansas city. Like if he needs to be the best game manager in the world, he can do that if he needs to. And so I think that this is pretty interesting here for Kansas City. Like I kind of like them outright with all the injuries. I mean, even if like some of those guys still play, like I think you're just still looking at a spot where this Buffalo defense, you know, I thought was overrated in the middle of the season. They got a lot of guys back. I felt really good about them heading

into last week. And then now I don't feel very good about them at all. And so I think this is one of those spots where just injuries are piling up. I don't know how they're going to stop the chiefs run defense or the run offense consistently. And I think my homes will still have some success here. Yeah. The injuries again, that's,

I think it's a massive, massive part of the handicap. Yeah. It's a, it should be a great game. I love seeing, you know, just two absolute dogs like this at quarterback uh in

playoff games high leverage playoff games i mean this like you how can you not be romantic about football in this spot to end the weekend with these two guys going back it's just going to be awesome um and yeah this will be a game that i probably i just out of all the three in terms of you know sides and totals i probably have the least conviction i kind of with you guys and i think you make a good job handicapping uh did it probably be a lean to the chiefs especially if the the bills injury report doesn't shake out very well if they're gonna have an issue but maybe we're also talking about an under here where uh both these teams probably mean run heavy uh and just can you know you could have these like would you never would have thought would be the scenario

but you could have these like 10 12 play drives and all of a sudden it's you know you're touching the ball twice a half it gets a little bit harder to kind of push the score so yeah it's gonna be great football yeah given given the size of my futures exposure on the bills if the bills can win by one or two points i will be dancing around my house and i'm a chiefs fan and I say that because money rules right I will be just thrilled I know that's that's such a tiny window to middle there but it's one of the things where part of my my handicap is the Chiefs could knock off the bills finally and kill that future that's been getting value every week since I bet it but I do think the Chiefs are definitely alive and have a good shot at winning this it's just passion mahomes just makes those plays you know whether it's a scramble or whatever

like he just he turns it on um and i i don't even think receiver drops you know they happen but they're not predictive so i don't think that we should say well a receiver is going to drop a key pass we don't know that there's still nfl receivers like shouldn't shouldn't count on that in your handicap i say that uh it's super interesting because the last time they played 42 pass attempts for josh allen 43 pass attempts for patrick holmes so you know i've kind of penciled in like like just forgetting about that game like what have we seen from them the last few weeks what do we think their optimal strategy is i'm like oh they'll probably go run heavy then you look back at that game you're like like what happened like so Like, so the Chiefs didn't have Isaiah Pacheco. I think that's really important.

It was just CH. So I think that kind of played their hand. They're like, all right, we're not running with this bum. You know, like he can't, he's not capable of being power running back. And the other side, like, you know, Josh Allen and Joe Brady, this is one of the games where James Cook was like super involved in the receiving game, five for 83 and a touchdown. So I think that they kind of switched up from a, you know,

like maybe running game to just a lot of short passing but i'm not really sure that was optimal i mean 23 42 passes completed one touchdown one pick three sacks like i i don't know i could totally see them being like you know what that didn't really work all that well so we're gonna switch the game around here try and run the ball control the clock so i don't know i think that's actually gonna be probably one of my biggest things live is like i mean if you see that from both sides i could very easily bet an under here pretty quick but um pre-flop i mean it could very easily just be like a you know a barn burner as well so for me it's kind of just like a stay away on that end yeah we love to see like a early the the game where they scored i was gonna, they had that one game where they scored like 28 in the last two minutes or something.

Yeah, that was wild. A couple years ago. You got these two quarterbacks. Yeah, I re-watched that so many times. Just like the last, you know, maybe my wife re-watched it with me and my son. Like, look at this. This is a crazy end. At the time, we had an older DVR. Kept in the DVR. Just watching the summer. Like, this is great crazy end like just you know at the time we had a older dvr kept in the

dvr just watching the summer like this is this is great let's watch this again yeah yeah yeah well you know that was youtube tv you know like you know directv dvrs are you know nothing for me anymore so yeah uh someone in the chat mentioned too my home's rushing over yeah home's rushing over yeah that dropped at 24 and a half on FanDuel. Um, I played it. I don't know. I played it.

I think you played it too. I mean, it wasn't readily available, so we couldn't push it out for subscribers, but we were talking about it in the chat. So hopefully subs got it. Cause it was like 37 or 27, 28 and other spots,

but yeah. FanDuel as they typically do. Which is still, I mean, a lean over, but like 24, I mean, that's potentially another carry i mean

that's like you know yeah it's got a big difference i just love watching my homes in a playoff game like his level of focus is so intense like when his helmet cracked he's just like all business like getting back in the game like he just he doesn't give he's so so focused on winning it's it's unbelievable. And it comes out in weird ways. And one of those ways is scrambling to get that first down. And I think that's going to come on. It should be good.

Good week of football. Good way to wrap it up there too. So appreciate everyone hanging out with us before you leave, make sure you hit the thumbs up, make sure you hit subscribe, come back on Friday to get some of the prop bets with Connor, myself and high slop. We'll be back here continuing while there's football.

We will be here. Actually, what am I talking about? We did a show every week last season as well. So even when football stops, there will still be moving lines every week. We'll be talking about stuff in the off season. So hit the subscribe button, continue to hang out with us, and we'll be back next week for Connor and Clark.

I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody. Yeah! week for Connor and Clark. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks everybody.