Move The Line - The Ultimate Super Bowl LIX Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: February 5, 2025

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for Super Bowl LIX! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Super Bowl LIX betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to Move The Line presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan here with my friend, as always, Connor Allen, unpacking Super Bowl 59. What's going on, buddy? Yeah, not much. You said 50-something and I was like, what Super Bowl is it? I kind of forgot off the top of my head and then Super Bowl licks, 59. Yeah, it's an interesting one that's for sure yeah i'm uh i'm excited i think i know we've we've we haven't talked much about it uh we did uh both tag team uh ed fang's show yesterday shout out to uh to ed and uh power rank so we we I think I have some thoughts.

Obviously, you have a fantastic preview on the site here, 444.com. People need to check that out if they have not already. An extensive breakdown that Connor has been doing for, you were probably in high school the first time you wrote that thing, right? Probably not that far off, to be honest. It's like a joke and a bit on the show, but you probably were 19 or something, right?

I was 18. Yeah, I was 18. So yeah, it was my was my freshman year of college i think is the first year i wrote it so um like because my birthday's late so i i was still in i was in college at 18 so it's amazing i had a pretty good record of picking the winner uh and again i want to give you kudos for picking this as your pre-season super bowl matchup so shout out to you i felt pretty good about this all season i was a chiefs lions uh pick that seemed okay and then that obviously was a house of cards that fell apart obviously as the lions uh you know defense did for sure but hey here we are you're i don't think you went to the well on that you probably could have got like 40 to 50 to one on Super Bowl matchups preseason.

Yeah, it was like 55 to one. And I don't think I bet it. Like, I don't know why I didn't. I bet like basically everything that I say on every show just because of this exact reason that nothing makes me more mad than getting something right and not winning money on it. And this is one of those exact scenarios. There are people though, that I saw that bet like chiefs over Eagles,

Eagles over chiefs, like preseason, like 50 to one. I'm like, how many, how much other shit did you bet? Like to me, I'm just like,

that's like, obviously congrats on the nice number, but like, that's kind of crazy that you actually have like multiple variations of this. Yeah. Shout out Mayo. Pat Mayo. I know has, has done that. I think he's holding multiple variations of this. Yeah, shout out Mayo. Pat Mayo, I know, has done that. I think he's holding bowl tickets for this.

That's wild. That is crazy. Who cares, right? You're already in pocket. I mean, you can just get kind of wonky with props and have yourself a hell of a day, regardless of what happens on Sunday. So, yeah, people need to check out Connor's preview,

again, on the site. Very extensive preview, obviously getting into the weeds on both sides of the ball, on sunday so yeah people need to check out connor's preview again on the site very extensive preview you know obviously getting into the weeds on both sides of the ball um when chiefs have the ball and eagles have the ball all those different things too uh if you like to bet tackles i have a preview uh going long on everyone that's on the board on the tackle and assist side those numbers are cooked out a little bit but you shop around a little. You can definitely steal some value out there as well. Some of our thoughts on the ways that we like to get down. But yeah, let's talk game.

We're going to get in on the prop side and get real weird. I'm sure on the Friday show, again, our last Friday show of the season will be on Friday, 3 p.m. Eastern. Connor, myself, John Hyslop will come back for that one. I'm sure we'll have specific standard player props, along with obviously the extensive menu of game props and specialties and all the different stuff that's out there now. I'm starting to get a little bit more consistency across books. There's

definitely some that are just harder to find than others and to be able to match them up on other books. We'll do our best to try to just share some stuff that we like. Again, it might not be everywhere, but do your best, and we'll figure the rest of it out. So let's jump into the game. I don't know who you want to start with, who has the ball, but I'll let you take the floor. I know you're prepared to talk about both of these in detail.

Yeah, I think that's probably the easiest way to do it, just divide it up by offense, defense. Let's start with uh when the Eagles you know have the ball I think that you know we've seen them just like absolutely steamroll teams since their week five by um you know I I thought a pretty interesting stat they've been losing in games of Jalen Hurts in just two of 13 games uh in the fourth quarter for a combined four minutes total. So they basically just been in like nonstop positive game script, extremely dominant. Their defense since that buy has been, you know, borderline elite in a lot of categories. Um, but you know, they've, they have allowed some decent games to opposing quarterbacks, you know, like good quarterbacks, like, you know, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, um, Jaden Daniels, when he was healthy, he had a couple of okay games

now they still played well against them. Those were below average games and EPA and everything for those quarterbacks specifically. Um, and a lot of that came on the back of inserting Cooper to Jean in the lineup, as well as, um, sorry, a couple other things. And I, I, I wanted over the other side of the ball there, you know, while mid, mid chatting here about this buy, but, um, it's me. It's crazy that, uh, this, this Eagles offense specifically has just been so dominant at running the ball. Jalen hurts. Hasn't had to do anything. One of my other preseason picks was Jalen hurts MVP. And the running game has just been so good that Jalen has never had to really throw the ball. To be honest, uh, just one game over 30

attempts since that week five by as well. But I'm interested in these pass catchers. I think that this is going to be an interesting matchup from a passing perspective, as well as a running perspective. I think the biggest question that I have is can chiefs stop the Eagles running game? And I'll let you, you know,

give your attempt at that one, because I think I have kind of an answer, but not really. But I'm interested to hear your thoughts. Can they stop the running game? I think they're going to can they stop the running game i i think they're going to struggle to stop the running game i i think that this is a fantastic run blocking offensive line they have a diverse rushing attack in terms of what they do schematically

i think they're hard to scheme i think having jalen hurts be a couple more weeks removed from his knee injury helps. I don't think he goes berserk here, but he ran for 70 yards against Spagnola in the first Super Bowl matchup two years ago. That was with some sort of Miles Sanders, DeAndre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell combination. And then, you know, the threat of obviously having Saquon makes things a little bit more interesting there and obviously explosive. Saquon's shown just such an insane ceiling, whereas like his hit rate on a 25 and a half yard longest rush is like 50-50 this year, 25 and a half.

Like most of these, most really good running backs are getting lined in like the high teens. And Saquon's basically a coin flip Like most of these, most really good running backs are getting lined to like the high teens and Saquon's basically a coin flip on basically running at least a quarter of the length of the field at some point in the game, just insane, right? Crazy. So I think there's something to be said here with,

you know, they've had some injuries on the offensive line, but I think again, them getting two more weeks helps. I think this is an offensive line that can struggle in pass protection at times, especially in the interior, but it's a pretty great run unit. You know, maybe Eagles and Detroit in terms of offensive line run game schemes. So we have a couple examples of this Jeff Stoutland combination

as the run game coordinator and the offensive line coach against Spagnola defenses, and both of them have produced like top 15 percentile success rates one was that superbowl where they were able to kind of run all over them so um i i don't think they're going to stop them i think by trying to stop them they are going to force themselves into more man coverage single high looks and that tends to bode well for Jalen Hurts as well. Significantly better against man than he is against zone. And, you know, again, it's a nice secondary that the Chiefs have. But with the way that, you know, I think Dallas Goddard's playing right now,

the ability to win on the outside with, you know, with A.J. Brown, you know, I think it's going to be a nice matchup for, you know, interior with Devonta Smith. So yeah, I mean, I think that the Eagles offense is set up to attack off of the run and do a lot of different things. And I think they're going to have to, you know, force Kansas city's hands to do some things maybe they don't want to do. So yeah, I think they're going to be able to run, I guess is the long winded way of the question you asked. asked yeah i think if you think that then you probably lean eagles on the side right or the money line right i would assume that's the problem right i touched on at the start of the show with with ed the other day right it's like i don't know

how you originate and come to a spot where the chiefs are the favorite i just it doesn't make any sense to me but there's the whole real how do you actually quantify the the voodoo black magic combination of patrick mahomes and andy reed and it's a number that has to go into that equation somehow now ed told us that he he just kind of holds on to preseason priors longer and i think that that's probably fair um but i don't know what the right way to do it is right i just don't know what the right way so i'm not super stoked to run the money line and grab the eagles um it feels like the right side i feel like they

have better actual individual matchups everywhere but like that's a it's a miserable ticket to hold it's not a fun watch um yeah i don't know i agree i mean i was on the niners last year and that was not fun i mean that wasn't that was just i was not having a good time um i mean the niners again this is another example of spags figuring it out like the niners couldn't run the ball they had an awesome matchup i think i took christian mccaffrey overs he had like 20 carries or whatever still couldn't just couldn't rip it. Um, and that they,

whatever the year prior against the, against the Eagles, like that, their collection of running backs, go out for 45 yards on 17 carries. They average like two yards of carry. Now, obviously Saquon Barkley is significantly different than those guys,

but not that much different than Christian McCaffrey. Christian McCaffrey is awesome. I mean, Saquon Barkley is, I would say, are you a better pure runner, but McCaffrey. Christian McCaffrey is awesome. I mean, take on Barclays, I would say, are you a better pure runner? But McCaffrey is also a fantastic, fantastic running back.

So, um, I don't know. It's one of those things where am I confident that they, are they going to average two years? Is he an average two years per carry? No. If they,

if he does like the Eagles are going to lose by a lot. Um, but like, could he be just fine? Like, I mean, even against Washington, he had the 60-yard run

and then had three yards per carry the rest of the game on 16 carries. So it was one insane run, and then the rest of the game was fine. He did that against Washington prior. I think that there's ways that it's possible that happens. I just think the Eagles are too good and the running game is too good for them to be fully stopped. I think I'm just a little more optimistic that they slow them down a little bit, but now what does that do to the backend? Like you mentioned, it's probably a force of play man, force them to

play, you know, single high. AJ Brown is just absolutely eaten in those scenarios, like 37% target share, like yards per route runs, like off the charts. And that, I think that's a risk. We saw McDuffie get burned in the Superbowl two years ago by AJ Brown. We saw McDuffie get burned against Mac Collins last week for like 70 yards deep downfield. Any thoughts on if they put like Jalen Watson more on him, like Watson's a little bigger. I mean, he's a little bigger.

Yep. Yeah. I don't know what they're going to do. It's a great question. I think they're going to want to use second level blitzing as well. Cause that's something that Jalen hurts has struggled with too. So I think you're going to be able use second-level blitzing as well because that's something that Jalen Hurts has struggled with too. So I think you're going to be able to see them mix and match. And you could catch – they will rotate occasionally too

and use more of their secondary pieces too. So like Nazeem Johnson, like you'll see some other random guys get a handful of snaps in here too. So it can really take advantage of those mismatches. But yeah, as you mentioned to me, AJ Brown, just significantly different performance. Jalen Hurts, significantly different against Mann. He's third in success rate against Mann,

third in EPA per play, where he's 22nd in success rate against zone, 23rd EPA per play against zone coverage. So there's going to be a handful of, you know, maybe, I don't know, 35 to 50% of snaps in this game, I'm imagining, would probably be against man coverage. And can Hurts take advantage of those opportunities? Can he diagnose them pre-snap and find the ability to take advantage

of the occasional one-on-one on the perimeter with an A.J. Brown? So that's a huge, huge piece of this game. Now, that gets a lot harder if they're not running well right if they're they're selling out kansas city side works um i don't know i mean the tackle rates for both linebackers have been down this season too this is not a great they don't miss a lot of tackles as a like defensive unit overall but um i don't know i don't know what it is here again like it was so frustrating to watch the second half of that buffalo game especially in the fourth quarter it's like where's james cook give him the ball he every time james cook's touching the football he's getting six seven eight yards on the ground um so it's like

we knew that that was going to be the game plan of the bills the combination of the quarterback um you know and cook and whatever the assortment of running backs that they were going to mix in they wanted to run the football that was their best path and they did it and they did it with a ton of success so i don't know what changes game plan wise here for them but something's got to change personnel's not changing um because they're working in buffalo yeah i think that's kind of the interesting part is like but when you think about it though like personally i would much rather stop josh allen from passing and let them run a little bit instead of vice versa like jalen hurts to me i would like personally i would much rather especially how the season's gone for jalen hurts i would much rather make

jalen hurts prove it and like and kellen moore just prove it like i don't care like i know the man's own splits i know all that i would line up my guys against theirs and blitz him like crazy which and just like launch guys at him and see what happens. Like, I don't know, maybe you pay for it, but like I, if I have to sit there and watch Saquon Barkley run 26 times for like 160

yards, like, I mean, just what are we doing? Like just call it, like just, you don't, you might as well even play the game.

You know, like that's literally like you were, that's like an auto loss if that happens. Yeah. So especially cause then you're not, then my homes doesn't have the ball either. Like I would rather just like keep taking shots. If they score, then just give the ball back to my homes and let him cook. I mean, then it's like, you're putting the ball in your best player's hands. I don't know. Maybe I'm projecting too

much of my own opinion into this probably, but like, I don't know. It's to me, like if they let them do that, I mean, first off, it's gonna to be a boring-ass Super Bowl. It's going to be terrible. It'll be like 17-14 or 20-17 Eagles. But I don't know. We'll see. That's a good point. I mean, Spag's routinely lauded for his ability to scheme really wisely, especially with a bye and to read with a bye. They are a team that is not stuck in their ways.

This is our Shanahan issue last year. We were like, like hey shanahan's just like this is what we do figure it out and stop it and she's dead yeah uh whereas like spags is definitely like all right here's what we're gonna do this week here's where our best opportunities are so i'd imagine that they go in and have a similar mindset to a degree that you're having here it's like all right we can't just do what we do line up with a normal seven man box and see if we can just do something that almost no one else has really done this season that's slow saquon down so um i think i think it's a super super fair point so yeah i don't i don't i don't know i mean so you're thinking if it's a eagles, bully the Chiefs, not necessarily slow it down, but if Hertz is conservative,

doesn't take chances with those shots and they want to run the ball a lot, you're thinking that probably leans to an under. Yeah, I think it almost certainly leans to an under. Just because, I mean, it's just good play volume in general. It's a 48-point total. I mean, this is pretty hefty. And the Chiefs,s we i mean we'll talk about on the other side here but like they don't score quickly either so like this is gonna be yeah like i mean each t each each team and a half could have like four drives and that's it that'd be that'd be painful yeah uh it would crush a lot of a lot

of overs for sure in the game. Yeah, I mean, the second level blitzer thing is what's really I'm fascinated with. It's also just it's kind of a decor of who Spags is. It's what we saw in that final play against Buffalo. Yeah, they're going to be able to win the occasional matchup traditionally up front. Maybe I think especially in the interior, I think is going to be their best path to getting a pass rush. But what Spaggs loves to do is just bring that creeper from the edge,

cornerback blitz, you know, linebacker that you thought was dropping into coverage. I think that's going to be something that's pretty impactful here. I touched on a little bit yesterday too. It's been a problem for Jalen Hurts. He loves to hold on to the football. Not a unique problem for mobile quarterbacks that love to hold on to the ball, run, create.

But Hurts has the second longest average time to throw in the league. And then when you consider what NextGenStats calls extended drawbacks, so four plus seconds of of holding onto the ball. No one does that more than Jalen Hurts, and that results in just a ton of sacks. I think he took five sacks on extended drawbacks against the Rams in that game in the playoffs. So just that kind of hero ball hold,

try to create downfields doesn't work. You're not going to, you're not gonna have enough time, especially against these, these second level, you know, rushers. And when does that come right?

Like that's going to come on a key third down, or it's going to keep come late in the game. And, you know, in a spot where, you know, they need to get into field goal range and all of a sudden, you know,

he kicks him back and then you're, you're sweating your longest field goal over under, because, you know, we're in that, that territory where, you know, a 50 yardersers in play like that's going to be when he uses them and it just is a matter of you know can the eagles diagnose that and get the ball quickly because that's not something that hurts does really well yeah no for sure that's a good

point yeah it's uh like 44 completion rate i think under pressure this year somewhere at 49.9 years per attempt uh and yeah it's it's not very good uh what's it's interesting he's been fine against the blitz but just terrible against pressure so like i think when there are designs and he knows where it's coming from essentially um he can get it out uh when he doesn't which is a problem against spags specifically um then it could be an issue or just natural pressure and they like sit back essentially you know like yeah which i mean the eagles or the chiefs can do but they also like they i mean they blitz a lot it was like fifth highest blitz rate fourth highest pressure rate so um yeah we'll see on that i mean i don't have any too much more notes on that side of the ball outside of like you know we took

some dallas got it over as early um aj brown early yeah early. We got in good number 46. The, you still got people out here touting, uh, you know, low fifties. So if you'll get about that. Yeah.

I thought that was great. You, you looked at, I guess we can talk about more props on the, on the Friday show. Cause there's like some, some AJ Brown longest, I think could be interesting if it goes like we expect.

I mean, it could naturally just get there, you know, like, I mean, just him being awesome. But if they do try and just like, you know,

send it like he's going to have at least two, least two three opportunities deep um so that's all we need that's the problem too a little bit with hertz this year part of it that the one reason that i think it's the right play i think it's something i will play i don't know if i you know make it official or something like that but i will play it but the problem is is that hertz has not been aggressive in taking those opportunities this year uh then they're just their normal game script for the most part that might be different here obviously playing in the super bowl against top tier competition is they just they're so run heavy and if he's not going to be conservative and if they're in a spot where there's so few pass attempts in general all of a sudden that those are can be thin at times and to get real thin uh even thinner if you don't have many shots down the field so i

want to see him show a little bit of uh yeah i don't know if risk is the right thing to do but like hold it on the ball uh looking for the check down like no take a shot let your playmakers win on the outside uh and hopefully that's you know two to three attempts to aj brown deep right so obviously those bets can win on intermediate throws and you know things you know get broken down but he doesn't work over the middle of the field very much and casey doesn't miss a lot of tackles right so it almost has to be a air yards 25 yard throw basically um yeah which you know i don't love compared to some other when you have outs on like you know again teams that aren't in the super bowl but you know like nico collins longest like that can get really high

but you know he can run just a crosser make a guy miss and take off right like you don't have that as much with uh with hertz just doesn't love to work over the middle of field yeah no that's fair that definitely makes sense yep all right other side of the ball casey has the ball here uh it's my homes i think we both agree that you know the again not breaking news i think how saquon does and how my homes does is such a massively impactful piece of this game because i don't think either of us think that this kansas city offense is going to have much success or even really try that hard to dictate pace or try to establish the run here? Because I don't think it's going to go very well unless something that you've done in the last couple of days makes you think differently.

No, I mean, looks like my camera just came unplugged there like mid thing. So now I'm like, it looks like I'm in like a dungeon over here using my computer camera. Can you hear me still at least yeah you're good okay well uh as long as my mic sounds good i'll uh keep rolling here so i think that the uh the running game is going to really struggle to succeed here i mean we're looking at isaiah pacheco and kareem hunt kareem hunt uh has been kind of the main guy here the last couple weeks much higher carry share was like 17 to 4 uh last week in carries cream hunt, averaging just 3.6, something yards per carry. Pacheco says injury 3.47 least explosive run rate in the, in the league. Um, success rate has actually been fine,

but I think that's just because they're again, fine at getting three to four yards in high leverage situations. They're just not good at getting like seven, eight yards on first down, or even six, seven yards. I mean, like to put them in like a second and manageable. So I do think they're going to try and run a little bit, but, uh, I would bank on them probably trying to go with the short passing game a little bit more, uh, in my home's going with kind of a higher volume passing game, which is interesting because the Eagles have allowed one of the lowest completion rates in the league and they played extremely well against most teams. But if you look at their current weakness, which is over the middle of the field, probably at this point, given how Fangio wants to play, given their outside corners of

Quinnian Mitchell and Darius Slay playing well, their secondary is playing well. Cooper Dejean's done a really good job in the slot and closer to line of scrimmage, but their linebacking court has allowed some recent production to tight ends over the middle. And part of that's Oren Burks. We've talked about him a couple of times. He's a backup for N'Kobe Dean linebacker there. So, I mean, it just leaves it like a really thin out for them to move the ball. So you're telling me if you're looking at a weakness, like you're talking about one guy, I mean, like, like, you know, basically Oren Burks, so you can't throw at him every play. I mean, they can try and probably win. I probably win a lot of props if they do. But, you know, like it's like you just can't move the ball like in one way.

But I don't see like Hollywood or Xavier worthy, like winning is on the outside without like a ton of movement and stuff like that. Am I am I crazy or like what? What other ways are you envisioning the Chiefs move the ball? Well, I'm not. This is the problem, right? Like we just we don't think they can necessarily stop Saquon, right? They can try. They're going to try.

And then on the other side, it's like, well, Casey now has to play one-handed, essentially. Like, they're probably going to have 18 to 22 fairly inefficient less than four yards per carry carries, right? I'd imagine. Right. I had imagined, you know, the, it's going to keep them honest, I guess is what you would say. Like, I don't know. Like I don't, that's not really what we're at in the Superbowl at this point. You're going to have inefficient, you know, first down runs. Yeah.

I don't know. Now, again, this is the part where it's like, it's Patrick Mahomes. So you're going to tell me that you're just going to be like, hey, we're going to put it on the shoulder of Mahomes to pick him apart, dink and dunk, find ways to keep the chain moving. They are – I think the dynamic is a little different as they've kind of had Worthy emerge and Hollywood Brown come back. But even so, they still haven't been a team that's been uber aggressive of even trying to create explosives.

It's not been something that they've done this year at all. So Mahomes has not been – doesn't really take shots. They've been significantly better at having the ball um short like in terms of uh epa per play mahomes is 34th out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks on epa on shots 20 yards deep down the field but that's insane right like uh you know it's like oh the word they got all speed this year it's gonna be completely different obviously rishi rice you know losing losing him is a difference to what they would have. They're also 34th out of 36 in the TEPs taking deep shots. 7% of his shots have been deep.

That's in line with your boy Tua and Gardner Minshew. Shout out to Shiel Kabadia at the ringer for that little nugget. They just don't take shots deep either. So, um, can they systematically get down the field with a really efficient high completion percentage attack? A thousand percent. Um,

but I don't know. It's just, it's really hard when you can't take the top off or you really even know threat to do so. So, uh, I don't know. It's,

it's a, it's a tough one to handicap because I'm, I'm terrified to, to not be on the homes, but I, I don't, I think it's really hard to break this game down, do matchup based analysis like this and be like,

yeah, I'm going to lay the one and a half on the chiefs. It's hard. Yeah. It's, it's pretty difficult. Cause like when you think about the offense and we talked about it already, like they're with some of the positions outside receivers.

Like I think I would take the Eagles corners over the outside receivers all day. Whoever's playing outside. It doesn't matter. Kelsey against the linebackers. Like, I mean, maybe they put the gene on him,

maybe Kelsey against the linebackers, but we've seen Vic Fangio do a really good job with like keeping Kelsey in place. Kelsey's had like two really good games against him against like tear. I mean, largely fingers mostly mostly had like bad, like two really good games against him against like tear. I mean, largely fingers, mostly mostly had like bad, like poor talent wise defenses with some of his stuff.

And against those, like it's, he's had to deal with Tyree kill and Kelsey. Um, and Kelsey's had like two awesome games over a hundred yards. The rest of the games, it was like 30 yards, basically for four of them.

And then there was one other game that was seven for 70 against Miami last year. But again, Miami's defense sucked. Like they were just like a terrible, terrible defense. So like, and they had Rishi rice. So again, it's like, I don't think we really have any like good comps for this. So like, if Fangio wants to stop Kelsey, I'm pretty confident he can like stop Kelsey.

Again, kind of like not, you know, not on the same level of Saquon because Kelsey is like a geriatric and like, you know, at this point he's just like old and kind of slow, but like, he's like, they're consistent chain moving guy um i'm pretty confident that fangio can figure out a way to kind of slow him down on the most part or just like hold him to like four or five yard option routes basically and he's just like you know sitting in between his own and that's it though because he has a safety coming down over the top because they're not worried about my homes chucking it to worthy or anyone anyone deep, like super deep. So I don't know. I think Worthy was supposed to be that, but it just hasn't really clicked.

They haven't had that type of connection deep downfield. I think they have one big play. It was early in the season. That was like a 40, 50-yard-plus reception. Otherwise, it's been slow going. They've obviously got him involved a lot more but it's not that way right it's not taking shots deep down the field and anyway philadelphia they've allowed the second lowest explosive play rate so they don't give them up either

right banjo doesn't want like they will this is what he wants to do now that's the good thing right like what he wants to do is what the chiefs want to do anyway so you know that's kind of the case for it but um they're going to win occasionally with four that's all they're going to bring they don't really blitz um this is the only thing is kind of showing variations of that over time to my homes is probably a good idea because if you're if it looks the same all the time they'll obviously find ways there's obviously this unspoken connection that Kelsey and Mahomes have in zone looks to be able to, you know, sit down in the zone the right way and find opportunities to get open,

especially if that is, you know, within the Oren Burke's orbit of where he's supposed to be. I think that's probably a really good thing, but again, something else we touched on on the show the other day, like Cooper to Jean element is really, really important for Philadelphiailadelphia because you know versus having like avante maddox in there manning the slot then all of a sudden you know if you have a team that can run the football or wants to run the football and you're in a sub package like that you're in trouble right you can find ways to isolate

something on the outside and basically force avante maddox to to fill the run well cooper g can do that he is you know played a lot of box safety in college is basically built like an undersized linebacker nowadays some of these just sideline to sign linebackers these are not your neck roll linebackers you know of the uh late 80s early 90s this is a very different type of position these days. And you have a guy that can cover in the slot against Hollywood Brown. You can have him man up and play Travis Kelsey, or if they want to start to run,

he just is a third linebacker and you just slide them in there. You can do different things with Zach Bond. Who's coming up as an edge rusher, put him on the edge, you know, give an extra line, a look on the line and use Dajin in that way. Like the defense is really good. And the guys that can execute the things that Fangio wants to do are all terrific at those things, breaking up those short screen passes, all those little quick hitters of the chiefs love to do this Eagles defense,

really good at doing those things. So, yeah, I mean, again, like you cannot be listening to me right now and be like, oh, yeah, he's on the Chiefs. But I don't know what to do. It's the Super Bowl. I got to bet it. It's the last game, right? It's the winter.

We're not going to have Super Bowl. We're going to have football for eight months. Yeah, no, I totally get it. Well, let me pull up ProfitX here. By the way, ProfitX is giving away a Rolex for let me pull up profit X here. Um, you know, by the way, profit X is giving away a Rolex for any new customer who bets a hundred dollars. Uh, you, it's a giveaway. You don't get a Rolex automatically, but like, um, pretty cool, pretty cool giveaway there. So, um, and they have some insane odds. Like Casey money line is minus

one Oh seven. As you can see my little like green thing there, I just put a hundred bucks on it. Um, you know, or to win a hundred on it. And so, I mean, it's down to minus one Oh seven. I think at that point it's kind of fine. Um, under 48 and a half is my lean as well. Um, I just, I think there are some scenarios where the game goes bonkers, but again, I just don't see the chiefs moving the ball incredibly well. And I think that there's outs for the Eagles to not move the ball all that well either. So I'm thinking my final score prediction on the, uh, in my writeup was likeup was like 24 21 um which is crazy because that's actually like a fine game like that would be like okay uh and that's like still well under the total of 48 and a half right

now so you know a good field goal under so um i don't know any well you guys did you sprinkle on the exact score because you get now you put it out into the ether you have to sprinkle in the exact score i i started loading up my my um account, like one of my accounts here, because I don't know if ProfitX has live scores specifically, but I started loading up my account to literally bet that right now because I was thinking about it. We have to go through like exact score and team right now because again, like if I predict 24, 21 and I, you know, and I didn't bet it, I'm going to be really upset. Yeah. Can't let that happen again.

Yeah, I mean, obviously, ProfitX's ability to manipulate lines too. You can see the liquidity here underneath things. It's obviously continuing to increase as we get closer, which is really nice to see as well. I'm kind of with you on leaning on the under on the game because I think you can still have a good amount of scoring. But having the fact that I think that the Eagles could have success running and just kind of dominate time of possession

and take advantage of this game and shorten it for the Chiefs, shorten the amount of time that Mahomes has the ball, the amount of drives that they have. Again, I think that's lots of outs here where you're still you know sitting on i think the high side of key numbers right like that's kind of where we're at so that would be my lean as well just completely flummoxed on what to do with you know side in total because i don't know what to do yeah i might use that scotty to win the waste management and parlaying with the chiefs and then parlaying with the eagles and then you just watch the super bowl uh have a side both ways a little bit of a juicy my scotty bet and then just cheer for all the props so love it be a fake celebrate the winner either way like

yeah no i got that ticket i parlayed it with you know the golf that ended earlier i parlayed it with that yep that's awesome but yeah no big deal it's fine i love it um yeah so chiefs 24 21 95 to 1 at caesar's i didn't shop around for it so probably could find a better price but just tired of this grandpa you know it's too many uh it's too many different uh things over here so like it's just like i think shout out debated by the way they gave us like that super bowl odds op screen which helps um but yeah I don't know we'll see I mean you heard it here first 24 21 Chiefs baby 24 21 teams okay uh for the sake of I'm gonna take the other side to do it uh I will go uh 24 23

oh Eagles all right all right I love it um that's uh i don't know he's a patriots fan i hate i hate both of these teams so much um the eagles robbed us of a super bowl um clement was out of bounds on that one play uh the game we touched down on obviously i wish bad juju on the chiefs dynasty as it gets compared to Tom Brady's dynasty. Tom Brady went into arrowhead at, you know, late in his career and knocked off the number one seat chiefs. Then goes to Tampa Bay as a dog and knocks off my homes in the super bowl. So stuff it.

If you want to talk to me about, you know, my homes over Brady stuff. I don't think they have any more head-to-head matchups, and Tommy got Mahomes a couple times. Yeah, I think Mahomes would have to win a couple more to cement a real argument, I think, over Brady. But I'm sure you've looked at the trajectory more.

I'm sure Mahomes is ahead at this age that Brady was. But yeah, it's similar greatness. You know, it's just one of those inexplicable things that we can't really, you know, we can't describe and why they keep winning and how they keep winning and how it's going to look exactly. And, you know, I learned my lesson last year where I felt like I had a great cap on the Niners,

but apparently Kyle Shannon didn't. So, you know, it still came close. It still came close to the end, and I think they could have won, but whatever. It felt bad last year too because I loved the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game against the Ravens and then just didn't follow through with it in the Super Bowl and gave it back on the Niners

because I thought the Niners were the right side too. They probably were. I think they probably still were the right side in that game and then just couldn't get it together and close so it's definitely something to be said for that too i mean you hate to boil it down to coach quarterback but if you boil it down to coach quarterback this is you know chiefs minus nine and a half right like it's just a massive massive edge so all right you come back for the prop show unless you have anything else the people i think we're good no that was that was it yeah we got a bunch of props we're releasing i've already released six i think you've released a bunch of tackles maybe like

eight or something like that um and then we'll have just it's gonna be the wildest most fun prop show ever um we're gonna build some crazy i think maybe multiple sgps i don't know we'll figure it out yeah probably just an sgp type day. We'll do some other stuff too. I have some other one-offs that I think are book specific, unfortunately. So like, I want to talk about them because I think they're really good plays, but they're hard to push out as official plays for subscribers. Cause you just don't have multiple,

multiple outs. And then I have one more that I'm waiting on some data on stuff that I don't have access to, but you know, tapped into a friend that I know has access to that data. So I think it's a, it could be a banger based off of my, my assumption.

So we'll hopefully have that in time for the show tomorrow. So I look forward to that. So subscribe here for four bets in the YouTube channel, move the line, wherever you listen to podcasts, come back Friday. It is going to be again, 3 PM Eastern for the prop show,

myself, Connor and high stop. Our last prop drop of the year. As far as move line here, uh it's going to be again 3 p.m eastern for the prop show myself connor and high slop our last prop drop of the year uh as far as move line here connor and i will continue we pretty much take you know a week or two off after the super bowl but then we'll start to get into the off season coaching changes nfl draft coverage uh we'll see what that looks like with us here in illinois uh they took away our draft betting ability. Maybe it comes back. I don't know. We're pretty frustrated about that. But yeah, we'll be back on Friday for the last one.

Yeah. But subscribe because again, hashtag no days off. We continue to grind football all year round here at 444. We don't want you to miss any of that. So for Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all on Friday. Thanks, everybody.