Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 1 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: September 2, 2025

Kick off the season with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 1! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 1 betting guide and get ready to win big! Presented by YahooFantasy #YahooPartner. Play Now at yahoofantasy.com/tmap👉 Hit this link for DraftKings Draft One, Get One!Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, presented by 444.com. I'm Ryan Nudan. Excited to be here for week one on this year eight, I think of us doing this together. Connor, it's absolutely amazing to me where we started, where we are now, all the cool, other things, ancillary pieces and parts of our journey. But excited to be here, as always, by Connor Allen. What's going on, buddy? Yeah, not a lot.

A lot of things have changed. a lot of things haven't you know there's uh i mean i think we we have continuously gotten better at props and we've gotten you know i would say better at size and totals uh you know like we've improved our craft loved working with like you know the listeners and like discussing things with them and the subscribers like all that stuff and like our evolving mindset throughout those it's been eight years which is crazy to think about um i don't even want to listen to what our first podcast was comparatively to this uh it's probably a brutal listen so if you were a day one person we appreciate you more than you could possibly know um i can't imagine there are many because

there weren't many people listening so um thank you all and i'm excited for this year to get going yeah back in the uh well those are soundcloud days so the when four for four acquired our show we went to a new platform and basically the sound cloud uh episodes got wiped away so no one can even find the old episodes i don't think at this point i'm not even sure that's a real thing but yeah back in uh yeah QT KTE days a very different time um yeah the quant edge um rest in peace but yeah cannot wait to uh continue to tackle this again with you uh from me just at the top uh just a little bit of bookkeeping tuesday we're doing this tuesday live now again on the four four live youtube channel you can find move the line wherever you listen to podcast

we're typically going to be in an earlier spot on Tuesday. I want to give a little bit of kind of a recap of the week, a little bit of our first look, expanded thoughts early in the week. Again, some of these numbers get real cooked out by the time we get into a Wednesday afternoon. So we're going to shift to earlier. So we'll be looking at 11 a.m. Eastern on Tuesdays.

If you want to join us live, can you be able to find the podcast later? Another addition to our show schedule this year outside of the 4-4-4 live and move the line feed, we're going to be on with Pat Mayo every Monday morning, kind of doing a similar thing, looking a little bit to a Monday night football using Sharpstack, which we'll share with you again today if you're tuning in for the first time this season. It's a new tool that we have or suite of tools that we have here at 4-4.

Super excited about. It is popping with NFL stuff now. We've been talking about this for months. We are finally here with just this cascade of NFL bets that I'm really good. excited to get into. But Prom drop is going to be in the same time and place as normal as well. 3 p.m. Eastern every Friday, myself, Connor, John Hyslop, uncorrelated parleyes, actual bets, all the crazy nonsense that you would expect with a slop show that will still be here as well on Friday. So again, move one where we listen to podcast, 4-4 live on YouTube if you want to watch it

live we greatly appreciate all the support like connor said if you happen to be you know even coming back from last year for the first time we are grateful for that we know you have a lot of options out there so if you like these voices uh these faces the things that come out of our mouse uh we are grateful to you and your support so appreciate that uh the betting subscription of four for four is where you're going to get access to all the plays are official stuff Connor's got a bunch of volume out already we'll actually go through some of that later today on the prop side um I've only put out one play, waiting for some more books. The markets I'm swimming in are a little bit more late to the party,

but Connor's got some great CLV already for us. I'm expecting another awesome season. We're going to unpack that. But if you want to get into those plays when they're released originally, you want to be a 4-4-4-betting subscriber. You've got to be in the Discord. And again, the betting subscription is going to come with basically everything that we have at 4-4-4.

So if you're playing DFS, season-long, redraft, all that stuff that is there. We have an additional subscription this year. as well, which is our Sharpstack tool. Again, the EV tool, odd screens, ARB tool. We put out, you know, market derived projections now on there as well. If you're looking at DFS players, you know, fantasy players, you're looking to use that to kind of help and look at one-stop shop for, you know, making profits. That's all on there for you as well. And again, if you have questions, we're going to share some of that for you today. Make it a little bit simple for you. And again, free trial is out there too.

I just need to sign up and get a free seven-day trial. We're going to jump to some of the Sharpstack stuff there today, though. But first, Connor, week one, overarching storylines. We, you know, I think we do our process and go through our divisional previews. We start really shaping and honing in our thoughts on some of these teams. And one of the pieces I want to talk about at the start that I think is really interesting when I was kind of going through these games. And I was thinking about essentially like a transitive property of our preseason expectations.

Right. So there's a team that we think. think pretty highly of. And in particular, in this instance, going up against a team that we don't think much of. I believe you have a Giants, or I'm sorry, a Jets to be the worst team in the league, best record in the league bets. I do. Right. So not like just binary bet, but longouts. And I think we both put the Steelers in the playoffs. So how do you kind of look at the week one lines that have been out since what, early May? It's kind of a different beast.

So how are you kind of attacking week one, considering these are markets that have matured for three months? And then how are you kind of leveraging your preseason expectations for these teams, especially in this instance when they go ahead to add? Yeah, it's tough. I still think that there can be some movement here later in the week. I know they have been around for a little bit longer. And so maybe there's less movement, but I think we're still going to see a decent amount here in the coming days. And part of the reasons we want to do Tuesdays instead of Wednesdays, I think get a little better jump on kind of some of these markets right now. But in terms of like matching what we talked about all offseason with what we were talking about in season, like we are looking at, yeah, like two teams.

I think that's a great example there where like we're, I'm very, very low on the Jets for a variety of reasons, you know, obviously Justin Fields, the offensive line, the sec, the incendiary pieces behind Garrett Wilson are just like laughably bad. And then the defense played so bad under Robert Sala. Meanwhile, the Steelers, there's a lot of reasons to be bullish on. So, like, maybe that's not the perfect way of making a week one bet, but it's certainly kind of what I leaned into of like, I don't know if the market's correct on both these teams, you know, one way or another. And so, you know, we got them matched up in week one.

And I think that that's potentially before the market adjusts to like kind of what, I don't know, we envision that to be as long as we're right. You know, I mean, we can't assume they're right, but I mean, we bet assuming we're right. So that's, you know, I think kind of the point there, right? Right. Yeah, it's like, you know, it's not like the Jets back. loses if they win in week one and it's not like pittsburgh can't make the playoffs if they lose in

week one but path certainly gets harder you we're going to go with those games you remember the bears with justin fields actually this is great beat the 49ers in week one uh two years ago three years ago something like that it was like a pouring rain game you know the justin fields game and i'm pretty sure they went like three they won like three or four games that season and they didn't finish with the worst record they might have finished with the worst record actually i don't remember it was like I think it was it was no it was like the eighth pick because they ended up trading it for Caleb or getting Caleb because of the the panther stuff so um yeah either way they were awful we bet they're under that year that was like one of the easiest unders ever it was seven and

half i think seven and a half wins that year so i still again don't think that it does make the path harder but like week one we can't overreact one way or another too much and crazy things can happen but again just use whatever information we think we have and go from there yeah it's It's, you know, I'm torn with it because I do think there's something to be said for that. Like, I want to trust the research that we did in the preseason. And when can that be more applicable than week one? Because there's so many variables that come up in the course of a season, injuries, week to week, you know, season, you know, guys are lost for the season, all sorts of things.

Like teams are as optimistic hitting the ground running in week one, right? Everyone's still in the best shape of their life. Everyone's still, we're still happier. Aaron Rogers is our captain. Things are good, right? Like, you know, so if you're like pro Pittsburgh, that makes a lot of sense. And Justin Fields bouncing balls in the guy's feet, and, you know, air mailing the other guys. They have one receiver. Can he catch the ball? Can you get open? Like, you know, there's just some of these things where it's like I want to lean on what I thought was correct and they feel like lost opportunities. So I want to get your thoughts to do on a couple

other, I think, important week one storylines before we start to get into some of our week one bets and leans and stuff like that. I think there's another really noteworthy game in the NFC north. It was a division that was, I think, interesting to unpack. What was interesting when we got to the end of the divisional previews is pre-Michael Parsons trade. You and I, without knowing both were landing on the Packers as our NFC representative for the playoffs, we feel pretty good about some of those Packers futures that we have now, considering that the market is definitely moved in our favor, considering post Micah Parsons. But we've an interesting matchup with a team in Detroit that there could be just some natural

regression built in based off of how they were just a buzzsaw offensively last season. You have both coordinators leaving, and then you have this ascending Packers team at the same time in just a divisional preview. That could be pretty interesting. The markets responded a little bit. Basically, this was around one and a half or so. we're kind of up to two and a half. So we're still sitting short of three here.

But any thoughts on, you know, kind of the storylines heading into Lions Packers for week one? I mean, I think you nailed it. It's like how much is Mike can play? It seems like we're getting reports that he's going to play a decent amount. I don't know. Maybe I'm foolish by saying this, but like I kind of think Edge,

you can kind of just like toss him out there a lot of times and then just like let him cook, especially on passing downs. Like, I don't know. Like there's obviously stunts and there's obviously like he can drop back into coverage sometimes. there's probably more, you know, intricacies than what I'm saying, but more so than a lot of other positions, like, you know, I think you're right.

You can probably just toss them out there and I think they'll be okay. So I would expect we see probably a reasonable amount of Micah right off the rip. And I think, too, also like any extra stress that he adds to that, like the outside offensive line, like the line's kind of like revamped some of the interior officer line as well. And that could cause some problems too. So like, you know, any extra attention that needs to be on the outside, again, like could have caused more issues on the inside and like that this packers team you know we were bullish on their offense jordan love looks to be healthy jaden reid was probably playing through an

injury but i think matthew golden has far outperformed expectations from a preseason standpoint and like offseason standpoint because i don't think that either of us were super high on him as a prospect but there's been nothing but like rave reviews of him now obviously again he hasn't played an NFL game he could suck we could be right um but i'm adjusting here quickly like i don't want to be sticking to my you know new college film take you know priors uh here so i'm i want to be moving quickly so i think that if golden can be anything near a true number one for them uh then the packers are in a really really really strong spot still with josh jacob still is the good offensive line like i don't know i just think this this team could be built here but under three

points at home against the lion's team that's going through transition also the come do you see the comment too the lions about how jameson was like oh our coach now is just like letting us win one on one some people took that as a positive i took that as a massive negative like um like he said like oh he's just like isolating us or whatever like putting us like into he's like letting us win which maybe it's fine for james yeah like is that a good thing though like i don't even know like i would almost rather them like like either guys running wide open all the time with ben johnson And, like, they didn't even have to win. They were just open.

Yeah. No, I didn't see that quote, but that's definitely interesting. Yeah. We'll see how that plays out. And we don't know enough about the coordinator and how that's going to change. I think you have to expect that there's something to be said that, yeah, there's still a ton of talent on that team. And, you know, Dan Campbell's still the leader of man.

He's in charge of everything there. But the same time, like, play sequencing, right? So it's not just the plays themselves. It's when they're called in situations. And I think that there's something to be said, that's just really hard to replicate, you know, from, you know, a different person's brain, right? Even someone that, the continuity of like coming up and staying on the same staff, like just I'm interested and fascinating to see.

There's really no way for us to know how to specifically handicap that heading into week one. But that's one of the, I think, noteworthy, you know, definitely a highlight game of the week, especially in that late window. That's going to be really fun on Sunday. Another one that's interesting in the early window is not necessarily, something you jump out on paper is we have one of these scenarios we have a handful of these divisional home dogs uh this week and divisional home dogs i you know if you're trends better it's not something that you and i i think lean on or believe in or are really ever referencing

it's definitely not ever the reason for me to form a bet but there's a pretty strong trend and i don't can i don't swim these waters very often but i do know that historically especially early in the season divisional home dogs are probably like if you're just looking at blind bat sides and totals probably a pretty good area to go right like every case is going to be different um the browns are hosting the bangles who repeatedly year after year stubbed their toe in week one and sometimes week two right like a lot of survivor pools died week one last year when the patriots went to Cincinnati in one not a divisional dog scenario but a bangles slow start scenario They went out of their way this year to talk about,

we're going to play our guys in the preseason. We're going to make sure that we're dialed up a little bit more for week one. We have this nobody believes in us, Browns team, except Mayo. Mayo seems to be every time we get on a show in Mayo, he wants to tell us how good the Browns are going to be. But he's the only guy. He's carrying the water for sure for Cleveland, but no one else really believes much in Cleveland.

What do we do with this slow start, divisional dog combination with Cincinnati and Cleveland? Well, I think it was like maybe a month or so ago when we were doing this divisional preview that we were saying that there's some certain like archetypes of teams that I think were pretty ripe to upset the Cincinnati Bengals, especially if their defense like doesn't improve much like maybe I'm sure it'll improve a little bit. You know, it was pretty bad a lot of times last year. But if it doesn't improve a lot, which I don't think, I mean, there are some reasons to believe it gets better, but based on their preseason outing where most of their starters, not all their starters were playing. playing. I don't expect much improvement right off the rip. And that was like pretty pathetic, especially run defense wise. But like, I think this Brown's team is one of those teams that could upset the Bengals. And so the Brown's defense still has a lot of talent. They still have, you know, a lot

of good players. Their offensive line is, is fine. And they're, you know, it depends what we get from Joe Flacko. I think a lot of the Brown's downside outcomes were because there's like so much uncertainty at quarterback, whether it's like Shudur, Flacko, Kenny Pickett at the time, Dylan Gabriel. I think Flacko provide them serviceable, not great. There's no way that he's like vintage Flacko, but serviceable enough quarterback play to keep them interesting, keep it like kind of frisky here. And their defense could be good enough to, I don't know, maybe slow down the Bengals a little bit, not fully, but like a little bit. And so I think that they're a team that could outright win at home against the Bengals, which sounds crazy. The Bengals are viewed in a much higher light,

but that is one of my favorite plays so far i played it it's like uh i think two to one or better money line right now um i know a little bit spicy but also played some cedric tilman props over at at open that was like one of our early ones we got in at like 32 33 something like that and now it's up to 40 i'd still my dabble in some all it's i don't know like i played 60 or 70 at that kind of open like as an alt as well i think that's still viable as well so lots of fun bets I think in this game this game could be pretty hot I don't know are you are you with me on the brown thing or are you I think you kind of more believe that the Bengals defense is going to be better like a good bit better which

would probably change my opinion on this game too well so I think they I think two things can be true the same time I think it can be better but I think I'm with you like he can be better and still be 20th in the league right like that's good enough to put them in the playoffs if the offense is what they were last year or even 90% of it right just healthy burrow I guess is what we're talking about here yeah but it's not i don't think there's a path for this to be a good defense like an actual like go out and you know burrow didn't have it today and the defense went out and won you a game that is not going to happen even against cleveland so uh yeah i mean i think we've seen some

action the other way like i've seen like circa and bookmaker moved to five where you know that's that's pretty telling like the number of pinnacles getting a little shorter on the five and a half that feels like it's probably going away. Definitely some five and a halfs across domestics, you know, and even kind of leaning Cleveland there too. So I think you're on the right side, like in terms of just,

they're terrifying. It's, again, part of it is also just, we've just seen it for too long. The Bengals just somehow get off to a slow start every year. Yeah, I don't really know what to make of that, but yeah, I agree with you. And then we got, yeah, Richie commenting, Bengals started reading Gouds with the number two squad in preseason.

Yeah, I mean, Chris Rodriguez and, Jacori Kroski Merritt looked like all-stars, you know, against them, which, I mean, they're probably fine, but I can't imagine that they're all that good as players. He also added in Joku over receiving in yards. Yeah, I mean, anytime there's Joe Flacco, you can probably sell me on any overs on Joku, on Tillman, on Judy. I think all of them are live. So, yeah, it's, yeah, no complaints on my end there.

Yeah. My only concern is that the flacko that we saw last year in Indy is different than the flacko we saw two years ago in Cleveland right and the age cliff can come up real quick and you know and I don't know if that's stiking scheme related I wouldn't think so I feel pretty good about I mean maybe the bloom is off that rose as well with stiking right you know so we'll see I mean um but I'm definitely not like I'm not jumping on Cincinnati who I think is significantly better at five and a half or it's like under a key number if you like the bangle side like I'm fine missing out on that um I'm not desperate for the points with Cleveland.

I think what you're doing is the right way to do it. It's like take a swing. Just take them on the money line. And you know, two and change. And just if you're right, you're right. That's a better reward than the five and a half,

which could, you know, lose in a backdoor field goal or something. And you probably, you know, had a shot earlier in the game. Right. Yeah,

I think, I think one of the downside case for this Browns team would be like, maybe Flacco just turns the ball over too much or just like throws the ball, you know, yellow balls at too much. Just like, that's all possible.

possible to wouldn't be that shocking for him at this point but yeah i don't know maybe the the scheme difference he didn't look great in india obviously like kind of got like re-benched i think right it was like he yeah anthony richerson got benched he played and then he got like a re-benched again after not playing all that well so maybe it's a scheme maybe it's the players so i don't we'll see but i think that they're a ripe team for an upside here i think it could be an interesting game yeah there's another divisional dog situation which i also think is one of like the better storylines on both sides of the ball is money-in-it football for the week. We have J.J. McCarthy, you know, with a loaded roster around him with an exceptional

play caller, talent maximizer, I think we feel like in Kevin O'Connell, and the debut of Ben Johnson in prime time, right? And hopefully be the next, at least Bears fans, hope he is the next Kevin O'Connell in terms of elevating the talent that he has, maximizing the young quarterback that he has, I think it's a very, very, very fascinating spot in terms of both how this division plays out about, you know, the discourse on a Tuesday morning coming out of that game, right, unless there's just very easy understanding, like, what the loud show talking points are going to be what we saw there is like, JJ McCarthy is not ready, couldn't do it in Michigan. They were hiding him in Michigan or it's like, no, Ben Johnson is out over his skis and this

was all Dan Campbell and like, Caleb Williams is not the guy. And like, either way, we're going to get that in some form. on Tuesday. What do you think it's going to be, though? Yeah, I think this is a super interesting one because I think that Ben Johnson just like has to be ready, right? Like he has to be ready because Flores versus him is like kind of a fun little chess match in my mind because you know that the Vikings are just going to blitz Caleb and like

just see what he's made of and just go for it and kind of like let him have it a little bit. And I think that that is a pretty interesting thing to do. And if Ben Johnson is ready for it, like it could leave. to like an incredible incredible Caleb Williams win. It's also worth noting too. So like last year against Minnesota, Detroit, Jared Goff was like crazy efficient from like a completion percentage standpoint.

The first game, they won 31, 29. He completed 22 of 25 passes. The next game, 27 of 33 passes. So I would guess that Ben Johnson probably, maybe not figured out, but like, it's going to keep in Colquette a ton to block. Like add an extra guy in there. keep the running back into block, keep like, you know, and then just have like two receivers and then maybe Colston Loveland just out there running routes, which is fine because like they

just, they can't be caught off guard here and just getting sacked. Caleb, you know Caleb's going to hold the ball on the ball for too long anyway sometimes. So I think that's the biggest chess match for me is like how does, how does Ben Johnson respond? And if it's not going well, like the Bears could score like seven points in this game and it might be a complete disaster to be honest. So that's like the downside outcome. the upside is like it's all clicking he's getting the ball a quick they ben jonsons just got to figure it out and it's good to go yeah brian brings up colson lovelin overs this week they are really short they're

like 24 i think he opened that um so i don't know maybe this is kind of where my mind mind went i don't know do you have any any thoughts maybe on the other side of the ball too with dennis allen's defense because there's some some interesting thoughts there too i think yeah this is one of the games i cannot wait to watch for all these different reasons you laid out the flores johnson chess match piece because, like, they're going to, Minnesota's going to blitz at least 50% of the time. They feel pretty confident about that. I've done it pretty much every year that their floors has been out there.

And then these scenarios where they dial it up. Like, they just, it's going to be like 70% for the week. Like, this happens. And then it's being able to account for where is it coming from, knowing that they're going to play zone behind it, right? So I'm sure the average of the target, even in those golf games, was probably maybe even a little bit lower than the standard golf A-dot, just to account for getting the ball out quick, find a soft spot in the zone,

knowing that if you can get it out quick, there's no way that they can properly account for where they're coming from quick enough. So that piece is also kind of so far rubs up against what Caleb has done really poorly, is that processing piece, right? He's kind of a hero when he has a ton of time to create and make spectacular plays. It's that diagnose, get it out, find the soft spot quick, move change, survive for the next play that hasn't really been even at oklahoma even at usc and definitely not in one year in chicago so it's going to just again from i think an actual football fan

standpoint the game is going to be just fascinating to watch and you're right too on the other side is going to be really interesting like you know what can o'connell do against denis allen what does the dennis allen defense look like compared to what his new orleans defense is a lot more man coverage um a lot more like situational blitzing there's some injuries on the defensive side on Chicago that, you know, I think we're going to be okay. Like Jalen Johnson, that's some pretty important injury there. I think Tremaine Edmonds, they said he's got some soft tissue stuff. They don't think it's going to be a problem.

Like, when has that ever been the case? Who's ever had soft tissue injury that's not been a lingering problem? I don't know that I feel necessarily good about that, right, in terms of, you know, maybe them being able to operate over the middle of the field with like Hawkinson or something like that. I'll be, that's kind of news I'll be monitoring in terms of props for us to attempt. but yeah it's a great great matchup i think on that side too uh we were talking about in our like you know group slack before about how Minnesota probably has maybe the biggest advantage of the game like i think probably their offensive line against chicago run defense right now um and just

probably pounding the rock and i mean when you have jordan addison out justin jefferson injured. He traded for geriatric, Adam Thielen, or Jalen Naylor is like just got coming off of surgery. Like, and it's J.J. McCarthy's first game. They're probably just going to jam the rock, right? Like, I don't see them going, like, coming out and just going past heavy. Maybe I'm totally off on that, but it seems like they have a lot of other, it's like their best, their weakest point here. And then plus, like, all their guys are kind of injured or like banged up already. Hockinson, I guess, is healthy. But that, that's kind of interesting me on that perspective. And then one other thing that's stuck with me back on the other side of the ball was, like,

I think that just because Ben Johnson would run the ball a lot in Detroit and, like, they had a great one-two duo. I'm not sure it's like apples to apples with like what the bears have. And I would assume that Ben Johnson obviously knows this. But I wouldn't be surprised to see them throw the ball, like a lot more than they did in Detroit. And just like come out and go pass heavy, maybe more screens, maybe more like sweeps to DJ more. I don't know. Just like get more things, you just pass.

the ball more instead of run the ball because like they can't I mean if they if they they try and go out there and just like jam the ball with swift like they do with Montgomery and and Gibbs like they are going to be awful they're going to be a terrible team but I'm pretty confident that they're not going to do that I would guess they don't have Montgomery or Gibbs on the roster right yeah but then you double tap pass catcher early in the draft right first time you know again that's Ryan pole's making the picks but I think Ben Johnson has a say and you go Loveland and Luther through burden it's the strength of your team right there's you know the emergence of rome in year two dj more just kind of just continues to be a forgotten man who produces like it is the strength of your roster so i think you're right like i could see depending on how the game you know this these don't actually well maybe they do thinking about like Caleb attempts and then like whether it's mason or aaron jones you know yeah rushing attempts or like some sort of way that I think that the game probably leans in terms of how the teams want to play kind of regardless of what the score ends up being right like I mean obviously

Minnesota is trailing you're not going to get they're going to turn McCarthy loose whatever they have but at the same time you while it's in neutral scripts I think you probably would lean that way for both those teams yeah Caleb 31 and a half attempt is pretty interesting there's a rushing temps for mason but it's not widely available and I think that's one that we could be looking at so i'm not going to you know blow any cover there but it's definitely an interesting one i think yeah yeah the game is going to be it's going to be fascinating to watch so um all right what other uh what some week one leans or any other like sides totals wongs team totals uh what have you uh got your eye on yeah we'll start with uh well you want to start or end

with the thursday night game coming up here real quick we don't have to touch go too long on it but Yeah, I think that Eagles Cowboys over is pretty interesting. Eagles have some questions in the, like, I think outside corner is a little bit of a question, right? And so, you know, you talked about that, like, where are they going to play Cooper DeGine? Is he going to slide outside? Is he going to just still be a slot guy? I think that that's a big turning point of like pick-ins versus CD in this game, essentially, and like who kind of crushes.

And, I mean, we know that we were not expecting the Cowboys even to be good before the Micah Trail. We were expecting to be like a volatile defense that could probably hang its hat on freaking havoc, getting some sacks, pressure, turnovers, but all, not all of that, but a lot of that was from Micah. And so when you lose a guy like him, do you have the stat, what was like they're like the one of the worst defense in the league without Micah? I'm pretty sure the last couple of years. Yeah, 30 second EPA per play with him off the field.

Yeah. So that doesn't seem good to me. I, you know, I think that's, I think it's last, Connor. I don't quote me on that, but I think 32 is last. 32 out of 32, unless there's an expansion team coming soon. I think that that, so yeah, that and then like, yeah, the Eagles like to milk clock, but like, they might be just like too efficient to milk clock. Like I think that they might just be gouging this Cowboys team.

And then we're going to see a ton of attack, ton of attempts from Dak. So yeah, we got some people here in the chat saying, you know, Dak loves the garbage yards, back to our covers. So, yeah, I think that's, I like the over in this game. It's like 47 and a half. I mean, the only thing that I think really kills this is if, like, Dallas just sucks offensively or the Eagles just like have those like 10 minute drives where they don't get that where they aren't that efficient but they just keep getting

push push first downs and it goes under but still I think there's a lot of paths over here. Yeah. So we had yesterday, Vic Fangio said that he knows who's starting at Perumina Corner and safety and linebacker. But he's going to allow his head coach to make those announcements and none of the local beat reporters expect the head coach to make those announcements. announcements whatsoever so it's like all right we've decided internally yeah we don't know so and then look those are just questions even if you're at this point in the season and you're not in a situation

where it's injury based right like you have concerns that you don't have someone that you want that you're assuredly lock in definitely that's that's concerning right same thing it's like if you know again niki said the perimeter corner and safety linebacker i think we know it's going to be jod Campbell, he's going to, you know, get those LB2 snaps. He really hasn't been playing much in terms of ad rusher. They have kind of still, again, even though they lost bodies, they got a bowl load of head rushers that they're going to mix in and they'll be fine. So, yeah, I think there's some opportunities there to lean into the prop market in particular. Yeah, Dory Jackson, yeah, possibly. Kila Ringo was not very good in the preseason. They wanted it to be Ringo.

We'll, we'll see. Yeah, I don't sit here. today with a ton of confidence that there's just one guy, right? It's just one of those scenarios where it's not like quarterback when you have three quarterbacks. It means you have zero quarterbacks. It's like, well, no, if you can't pick a definite outside corner, that's a problem. And then you start to pull a strength of like Cooper DeGine in the slot and you maybe need him to rescue you and two receiver sets and play on the outside.

Yeah, I don't know. It's just, it's more of a question than, you would expect for this team that everyone thinks is just going to run it back and be absolutely dominant defensively again. I have some concerns. Um, so yeah, there could be some opportunities for deck and do what they do best, lean into their strengths, lean into where their dogs are, you know, with, with pickings and lamb. I think we, um, we kind of agree there too. It feels like Philadelphia. If you're in these waters, Wong teaser like feels pretty nice, seven and a half. even as we climb out to eight

like Philly less than three I think there are worse bets to be made I would think this weekend so that's something that's definitely definitely interesting to me so we we have our bets bird survivor pool and I'm not taking the Eagles here I don't know what like I'm taking Cardinals

and Cardinals and Broncos which I don't know if you guys saw but there's like 8000 entries of overlay right now which is like there's only like 2,500 out of 11,000 so $50 to enter 500k guaranteed wasn't meant to be an ad read here but now that you brought it up um you know i think it's it's probably worth mentioning i got a couple entries i'm probably rolling broncos cardinals but now

you brought the eagles it's like should i just fire another one with the eagles is like week one too like i can't just do one because i'm one of these teams is probably going to lose i feel like i don't know why i just always get this like oh yeah always we we should actually touch on that game to you i think the broncos uh broncos titans game to me is it's worth talking about too but i don't if you had any last thoughts here on this Eagles, Cowboys. One. Splashports.com slash 4 for 4. Jump in 50 bucks.

Overlay 500K up top. Yeah. I mean, I would think the Broncos are probably the most popular bet. They're also like seven and a half at home. There's some eights out there. So it's moving a little bit. You know, look, we talked about this for years. Denver at home in September is even with some bad Broncos teams.

It's been a really tough spot. So now you have a situation where you have a rookie quarterback who I think it's in arguably he's like the least talked about number one pick rookie quarterback that I can ever remember. It's just he's been good. But like this hasn't been a lot of like Cam Ward hype. Tough test week one on the road in Denver. Yeah.

I mean, brutal. So Debrough, competent Denver, Tennessee under total. That's probably my favorite look. We're looking at 42 and a half here. Like just the way that these teams match up, like I think this Denver defense almost certainly is going to be like elite elite when they added Jaday Barron. You know, obviously still Patrick Cernan, Sertan. They're good like front to back. And then they're facing a Titans team that is a better offensive line, but their receiver depth is not very good.

It's outside of like, we're talking about Calvin Ridley, who's like, I don't even know if he's really a true number one at this point in his career. He's probably better off as like a 1B or like a 2, honestly. And then, you know, they have Enoch, I'm inore, whatever, from Stanford, who I think is getting to start just announces the, you know, starting receiver in their depth chart. Like, I just don't see really how this Tennessee team matches up all that well against Denver. Now, I will say, and this is kind of what's like keeping me up at night with just like walking Denver across the board is like, like, what if Cam Ward is just like Jaden Daniels or like, you know, and just like comes out and it's just a baller? I mean, that's like, because that is not baked into this line, I don't really think much at all.

Like if he comes out and it's just extending plays and, you know, getting guys, the guys were eventually getting open and like, this is just a thing that hasn't really, like, it happens all the time. Like it's every once in all, you'll see a rookie quarterback come out because on paper, I'm seeing like a rookie quarterback that's like way overwhelmed on the road in Denver week one. I'm like, oh, it's a smash pick on Denver. But then I just have this like small beat piece of me that's like, dude, if Cam Ward's like an absolute baller like they could lose outright a week week one and like I guess like in hindsight it

wouldn't be that crazy uh if cam war is really that good yeah I mean I go back to the bengals talk earlier like we thought the paths were going to be the worst team in the league bangles had Super Bowl aspirations it was jacoboset because god forbid we put drake may behind that offensive line you can't survive you would die and then they go on the road and they win right so I do think there is a scenario where literally everything happens so having again multiple survivor outs is the way to go about it i would definitely i don't think you need to get like you don't benefit from going completely off the board early right you're just not getting enough leverage in a large pool survivor in week one but at the same time like diversify if you're

taking a few different shots so yeah if he's him i then you probably wouldn't want to be overexposed to to denver and week one though i do think it's the right side and um i still worry about this Tennessee defense. I think Sean Payne led offense and, you know, Bo Nix in Year 2, a better run game, great offensive line. You just, whether it's, you know, Sutton is like a clear wide receiver one.

There's just enough guys there yet to have an Ingram. Like, I don't know. I think it's going to be a pretty interesting and exciting season in Denver too. So, yeah, I'm not, I'm not too shy on Denver, but I do think there's just, it's a smart way to go about multiple entries yeah it feels like every year we see either like a new completely new situation or a rookie quarterback or like remember when jared goff was on the rams and they got macvay and it was just like everything clicked and it was like insane jared golf when they got ben johnson

and like they went from like four and eleven to like winning 12 13 games and it's just like whatever you i don't know thought about in your mind of like whatever that team was they just were not that team anymore so like you think about the titans you're like oh this team sucks you know like whatever on paper they're not that good and then one guy comes in and he's just a baller and changes everything and it's like a real sweaty game and like you're you're you're dripping sweat on the last second field goal in Denver on on for the Broncos so I don't know that's just like kind of what always scares me away is like the uncertainty here yeah and someone that's going to do that like golf is going to be maybe the 101 right like that's

I think the case you're making right like it shouldn't surprise us if cam ward is that kind of guy he was literally taken first in the draft so right like is that that crazy i don't know they're hoping for him to be that dude right yeah i mean that's that's definitely the path forward for for tennessee in the next you know five to ten years so no not crazy at all you know taking a road team in week one we let you talk about the carnals and the saints there's some six and a half now we've kind of moved out to five and a half this was right around six and a half and six back in may when it opened and then we kind of got bent down a little bit i think it's just like one of those scenarios where should the cardinals be almost a touchdown

on favor on the road against anybody but then you look at this saint's team you're like maybe maybe this is the case yeah sam mean saints rundi should be better especially we talked about last night when they get walter nolan back their defense there was some interesting split maybe was cleave t tweeted them out about how like the cardinals defense was like sneaky really good by the end of the year when they kind of got fully fully healthy and that's like a massive problem for the saints team that's starting spencer rattler um you know obviously they have new coaching half here. I just can't say that I'm very high on them. And I think their defense could be a problem as well. So like the Cardinals offense, I think it's just going to be steady. They're probably not

going to like, I don't know, drop like 40 on them or anything, but like 28, you know, like just rolling over him with, with James Connor and, you know, McBride and Marvin Erison Jr. are just like significantly better than anyone the Saints have. I mean, the Cardinals are just like top to bottom, like a really good team or like a really way better team than them. Sorry, not a really good team overall but like a way better team than the Saints and so I don't know I kind of think six and a half is interesting but taking yeah like a team that we don't think is like an elite team six and a half on the road I don't know that's I think kind of the downside case but like from a match perspective I think the Cardinals are like kind of a nightmare scenario for the Saints honestly

early I put them in the playoffs I think pretty highly of them this year I would like you said I would like Walter Nolan back I am excited about this defense someone again who nerds out pretty heavily on the defensive side. I think they're going to do a lot of things interesting from a formation standpoint. They have some players that are better than people know, but just because they've been pretty irrelevant for the last couple of years, you just, you don't know about a Garrett Williams, who's like one of the best slot coverage corners in the league, who might play a little bit more on the outside because they seem to want to run a bunch of like three

safety stuff looks this year and bring guys from like all over the field from a blitzing standpoint like they added josh sweats um clayas campbell's like was really good last year for miami um he's going to hold it down in the middle still uh at this stage in his career even though um you know he's a little bit late and long in the tooth so yeah they can get something out of will johnson who they you know use a second round pick on um you know that can be really nice could be a very interesting ascending team i'm also really some prop stuff here on the cardinal side um that's that's interesting and i want to kind of see those markets pop before we start talking about that specifically.

So, yeah, I lead for sure. Okay. Yeah, I was going to say we did, I did release one of my first plays, like last, I don't know, Friday. I played James Connor over 15 and a half carries. I think there's still some stuff up right now. Let me check Sharp Sack real quick and we can, you don't need to pop it up necessarily, but got a nice new odd screen over here.

Let's see here. Yeah, 15 and a half still at 365 has. minus 115, flip has minus 130, MGM, minus 145. I think 16 and F could be okay, too. He was like, over, he had 16 plus carries in 10 of 13 games where he didn't leave early for injury. Again, they're like seven point favorites against the worst team in the league. So I think they should see a ton of work.

And I'm not buying like any of the Trey Benson, like being involved stuff. Like I think it's going to be like almost all James Connor here. So, I mean, barring them like, barring that either being completely wrong or them just like, losing basically or the Saints just like being able to run the ball like super efficiently and hold the ball for a long time which I think are three pretty unlikely outcomes to be honest I think that he could like honestly be closer to 20 carries but in the game instead of like 16 so that's kind of my look on Connor yeah I like the Connor look for sure um what other uh you another well I give you one I just kind of touches on some of the other stuff

um home dog in the division um I think the falcons are interesting i like the falcons two and a half um i think they're getting the bucks at a good time with you know the warf's injury with you know just a little you know just some little things here and there right like i still think Tampa bay is a really good team i think they're going to be around um you know i'm not like completely expecting them to implode in on themselves this year but there is an opportunity for Atlanta uh to get going right michael bennox is healthy. We know that. They have some, I guess, some injuries as well. I think they're going to have a hard time stopping Drake London in this game. I think he is, yeah, I think he's going to be

pretty, pretty fascinating in this one. I think Bijon can eat. I'm excited about a bunch of players on the Falcons defense. I love that they're going with a couple of their rookies on the defensive side that I think have a ton of upside. Obviously, James Pierce can cannot do a show and not tell you that James Pierce is going to win defensive rookie of the year, make that bet. But I think, again, taking advantage of Worf's being out of the lineup, we saw kind of a return to Baker taking a decent amount of sacks last year. Pressure to sack rate kind of was climbing back up pretty steadily towards the tail end the last year after being really good two years ago.

That was definitely a buggy-boo for him coming into his time at Tampa Bay. Early career, Baker loved to take a sack. So that was a problem. just i like this spot for tampa um i think again this could be a a long leg um you know as a home dog that you can get out to like or you know plus eight and a half um you know just you mentioned the uh you the broncos like that's a nice little two leg wong for me that i think i'm going to get down on uh but i think they can win this football game so i think they're just getting the bucks at the right time that's that's fair yeah i don't have like there are two teams that

kind of struggle with i mean i wanted to be higher on the bucks for a lot of the reasons that you mentioned, I mean, where they're just like, when you, when you lose Godwin, when you get Jalen McMillan out, when you lose Tristan Worf's, like, you're already like kind of hampered by injury. And I think Ibuka, you know, Debrough mentioned him, Mubuca over is potentially, like, Ibuka, I think is going to walk into like eight targets, probably week one. That would not be surprising at all. And then also, K. Dodden's already kind of like dinged up. So like that's another option there. And then, so yeah, I think like that would make sense for him to see a lot of targets. But from a pure game perspective,

I just don't know, honestly, on this one. So, yeah, I think probably taking the dog would make sense at home. And I think the Michael Pennets just, like, might be a guy. Like, I think that's an option. We talked about this last, like, in the preseason thing, like, he flashed armed talent. It wasn't always all there, but like pepper Drake London with targets, you know, like, Drake London has a legit chance to lead the league in like total targets based on, you know, Darnal Mooney injured, his target chair last time, 31 targets in two games for Michael Penning.

I mean, that's crazy, crazy stuff. And the camp reports have been saying, you know, the same thing, basically. So, like, it's like he's just getting peppered with targets. So I don't know. I think London stuff could be interesting. You brought it up, I think, in our chat. Is that like, it's just one of those ones I would bet and never tell you because you, you know, you would, because we're talking about like a high end, you know, high end receiver.

We're looking at like six and a half receptions in like 75 and a half yards or something like that's, it's hefty. why don't we uh why don't we just take the like the eight plus or something at on the prop show on Friday like that's totally what I'm planning on doing yeah oh yeah like Drake one hundred plus for sure I'm fine with that like I think the upside is there I agree with you just from like a base minus 110 standpoint I'm not probably not laying it over on six and a half something like that but that I mean this could that could be way short too like

again if he's seeing 10 plus targets a game six and a half is for sure short yeah I mean it's just a scenario where it's like we cut to half time and It's like, all right, Drake London has six for 68 at the half. You know, and it's like, and I was afraid to take over six and a half. He's almost there, you know, just getting absolutely pounded, right? And I'm just not afraid of, you know, I like two young rookie nickels in this game. I like both of them a lot. I'm not going to nerd out on Jacob Parrish and Billy Bowman Jr.

But excited for both of those guys. But they're done, you know, we're still Abuka and Drake London are going to eat in this game. So, yeah, there's a lot of opportunities here. And I think the pace that they played with last year, too, against Small Sample, but they played with a little bit more pace. They ran a little bit more no huddle with Pennix than they did with, with Kirk. So I just think that there's a lot of upside for fireworks in that game. So Falcons team total is interesting to me.

Falcons getting points. Falcons as a, you know, Wong teaser leg through the three through the seven. I've interested in the Falcons for sure. Nice. Yeah, I like, I like that one. I think I only have one, like one and a half more. We kind of talked about the Steelers already. Steelers minus two and a half against the Jets.

I think we're both in unison on that. We discussed a little bit. I don't know if you get anything to add there, but I think they're just a better team. Just a better team. Yeah, I don't have a lot of like nuts and bolts is just one of those scenarios where I'm like, man, we were pretty surprised. I think we both were a little surprised how much we like Pittsburgh when we went through the process.

Right. You know, and again, like, I think the jets are probably. properly priced and the defense can be okay the offensive line is interesting but like the floor when justin field is is brought into the fold is just pretty low from a week to week standpoint and again tough test against uh pittsburgh right like and there's the revenge narrative basically right for both quarterbacks like i would think mike tomlin knows what he needs to do to frustrate justin field's pre and post snap and i think they probably do that pretty well so yeah no i agree i think that just a lot of stuff in their favor like we

Jake took an under already in that game we're contemplating more unders we're just trying to like mitigate risk of like how many unders can we take in that game and not like I don't know screw ourselves over or like be too heavily correlated into one thing in case like we get you know screwed with like a random punt return touchdown

and the jets end up running like 70 plays randomly by accident like so yeah we're trying to figure that out but there's probably more unders to come there I think yeah yeah I like that for sure let's hear the one one more bet would be nineers two and a half against the seahawks which i think that you might disagree with me on i i don't know like i i i think the seahawks defense is obviously very good and they played really well and the seahawks won a lot

of games last year but like i don't really i don't get the bull case here for this like offense i get it i understand it but i'm just like i'm very like hear me out this offensive line Brandon Thorne has them like 26th. I think our guy, offensive line ranking has him like, Justin Edwards has him like 27th or 28th. So we're talking about a bottom seven offensive line and I don't think there's much room for disagreement there.

Maybe you want to make him average. That's best case scenario. You have Sam Donald, who's been one of the worst quarterbacks under pressure in the NFL the last, I don't know, five, six years, whatever since he started his career, who is like the seeing ghost quarterback who we just saw last year fall under pressure.

and became like a literal cupcake like the worst quarterback in the league for those couple games where he got pressure and then you have j then you have jsen who's been good not great good uh and like slot mostly but can probably play outside i think he's he's a good player you have a washed cooper cup his own team didn't even want him after drafting him grooming him like making him an awesome player and then just threw him with a curb after he like you know is like this so you have some washed up number two who's probably like a slot only guy at this point he's like basically dead weight on the outside against man coverage so like i i get like there's a whole scheme stuff with the offensive line and like yeah

maybe there's zone blocking scheme like for sure that stuff matters to an extent but like the end of the day these guys just might suck like this might just be like a disaster waiting to happen um and then you're facing like a robert solid defense they added some more interior defensive line guys Like, if they stop the run, like, are we letting Sam Darnold against Robert Sala, like, really cook you? I just would be very surprised. So, like, I think the downside of this offense is like really, really, really low. And like, no one else seems to be talking about it. They just seem to be assuming that this is going to be like a good offense.

And I just am not there at all. I actually don't disagree. I actually struggle with this team. And I've seen a lot of people, part of that I've had a little phomo because I've seen them be kind of a little bit of a trendy sleeper nationally in the last. last like week or two and we yeah i think we maybe did our uh nfc west preview further back and i was just like man my i'm missing something on seattle because i am a huge mightly donald fan i think this is an elite defense and i think he's like talent wise and i think he's a talent we've seen it like those are some not they were pretty average raven's defensive units that he took they're

significantly better now but like you know early kyle hamilton days and they really didn't have much in terms of past rush and he always found a way to like make them a top 10 unit so i really believe that he's an excellent coach but i don't disagree with you like we're like we can't sit here and praise kevin o'connell for being this like insane talent maximizer and he just gets the most out of his quarterbacks and then we're pulling sam donald out but we're using good sam donald stats from minnesota to like go over here to seattle where it's just a different situation right it's a completely different there's the talent around them is all different um so i i don't i don't disagree i'm i'm

kind of just flat on them i think they're going to be okay they're going to win some games they shouldn't um and they're probably lose some games that they should win this is a little tough for me again like early season divisional dog at home is not something i'm like dying by dying to jump into but i think san francisco is the better team so two and a half it's probably probably the right side yeah i kind of like stanford there that was one of the things that I bet as well just I mean looking through all those stuff prep for the show to me you know again like San Fran is their own set of issues but you have Juan Jennings almost certainly going to play after you're reporting practice Ricky Pierce all looks great CMC's healthy

George Kittles a dog like their line will still always find a way like they always do basically yeah I just think that they're like significantly better team than than the Seahawks at this point plus the defensive downside again like could be easily like a multi-interception game or multi, a lot of sacks, something like that. Brian mentioned Gino Smith's graded in Sam Donald. I don't disagree. I like maybe that's a hot take. No.

I mean, I don't know. I think it's fact. We have one year of body of work of Sam Donald with Justin Jefferson, Kevin O'Connell, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hawkinson, like, behind a top five offensive line. Like, it's tough to separate this stuff. It really is. I get it. But the rest of his body of work has been like pure garbage. so we'll see

we'll see I want to plus one our guy hunters Texans Rams under 44 and a half I think that that's a pretty good look I think the Texans defense can be awesome it looks like Lerick Jackson's going to play left tackle dealing with tailbone issues

and blood clots seems like a bad combination looks like he's going to play though but again we're also dealing with like just clearly rusty question marks around Stafford, so 44, kind of sit on the wrong side, or I guess the right side of a key number for us to take the under, getting that half point at 44.44 matters quite a bit, right? This is a 24-20 game. We're fine.

I very much could see that one coming into play. Lean Rams, but like the under there, that's something that Hunter put out for subscribers as well. The last one I really like is, again, just kind of plant the flag Sunday night, probably the premiere game of the week. Give me the Ravens. Ravens Money Line. We're kind of just bouncing around. You know, there's some like one and a halfs.

The Ravens getting one and a half. It actually puts the Ravens in like Wong teaser's range. Or you can then tease them through the seven basically at one and a half. It's pretty sweet. Give me the Ravens plus seven and a half against anybody at any park in any scenario. But yeah, give me the Ravens straight up. I have concerns about this. look, I think part of the bill's thing is the schedule, undeniably charm and soft schedule.

And it's a really good football team. But I think we're going to get a spot where, like, the perception of who they are is maybe even a little bit inflated because of the schedule. They're going to just, they're going to, I think, probably be the top seed in the AFC if Josh Allen stays healthy because the other contenders at the top have way harder schedules. but they have some concerns and questions right now in the secondary. Maxwell Harrison, their first round pick is not healthy. Probably isn't playing in week one. Tranevious White, again, this is not your older cousins, Trudevius White. This is not the first iteration of the bills, Tradavius White.

He could not find the field for the Rams, and he could not find the field last year for the Ravens when they were dealing with secondary issues and desperately needed some quarterback play. Dusty. read the Cooper Cup of defensive backs it was great while it was great it is no longer that now they are dying for him to play in this game because they need him because they don't have hair in the games that's a spot where I just would expect say flowers you know bait men they're going to be opportunities on the perimeter for the ravens to take advantage now they also went out and spent a bunch of draft capital and free agent money along the defensive line. Well, a couple of those guys got dinged for PEDs and they're like suspended for four to six games. They're not active yet. And then they lost Dwayne Carter for the season with an ACL

injury, one of their interior defensive line. And it's not great, but he's, you know, he's going to play 35, 40% of the snaps and now he's out. So whoever you deemed him to be better than to give him those snaps, now has to play more, right? So there's just some injury concerns on the side of the bills that made me a little bit nervous. And I'm not surprised at Jair, Alexander is maybe questionable for this game for the Ravens. We would expect that for the Ravens.

The rest of it's fantastic. So give me the Ravens, money line. Give me the Ravens. I think like Fandals got plus one and a half. If you like to do the longs, that's a great spot through the three, through the seven.

But I think the Ravens win this football game on Sunday night. Yeah, I think they were, this is another example of a, like, team that we view as the best, like, roster in the NFL right so like against anyone we you know have them in a really good spot and then obviously you added some of the bills injuries here heading into week one like or just like you know in unavailability uh yeah i think the ravens here are pretty interesting so yeah don't disagree there i think raven's money line could be it could be a good one yeah

let me bring up a sharp stack and then while we're looking at that too first tell us about some of the week one props that you've already uh absolutely destroyed yeah we um so talk about James Connor already, played that one, over 15 and a half carries, played Will Disley under 24 and a half receiving yards. You can still get some like 19s, I think, at different spots here. And that I think is still interesting because they brought in Tyler Conklin and preseason, Tyler Conklin played more like the receiving role. And Disley didn't really do that. They also have that guy, Arronday Gadston that they talked up all off season. Now, I don't think he plays a whole lot, but like he might play a little bit. And off.

to like for it to matter for a guy where that might not see that many targets. So under two and a half perceptions and over on the yard or under on the yards there, I think it's pretty interesting. So those are the two so far. And then I played two or a couple more today, played Kenneth Walker under 64 and a half rushing yards. Again, I already voiced a lot of the concerns. I think in the Seattle segment there about that offensive line in the situation.

We just might see more Zach Sharbonate too. You get a new play caller like I find it hard to believe that after talking about ball offseason. They're not going to use them like a little bit at least. And then played one more today. And I don't know why I'm, so like, oh, Mike Gaseki under two net perceptions, played that as well. I think that's a really good spot. And I mean, his splits without T. Higgins or with T. Higgins, he averages like four targets per game instead of like seven. Then you bring in Noah Fant of this offseason to play like a bigger role. And, you know, I think he's going to see a ton of targets too. So also, I don't know if this is a ceiling game.

Like, is Joe Barrow going to throw the ball 45 times? if yes then probably all unders are sunk if no then i mean even 35 40 times you're i think we're still in a good spot for gaseki so um those are some of the ones that i played so far i don't know if you want to touch on the one that the you hit too yeah i played a longest reception um darius slaten over 15 and a half yard and longest reception in that game against the commanders concerns about commanders perimeter corners slaten's kind of an a dot king um you know send that big on the off-season. So he'll be out there in three receivers or two receiver sets even.

Look, you know, Russ has checkdowns and moonballs, right? So we're basically, in my opinion, betting on does Darius Slayton catch a ball in this game? And I think he does.

I think he's his prop lines like over one and a half juiced severely to the over. Yeah, just I think Slayton's a pretty good player when he's healthy. And yeah, it's a good spot where it could be an interesting game. And I like the pace. I think we see commanders continue to play.

with a ton of pace offensively. I think we saw day ball, especially this preseason, particularly when Jackson Dart, shout out to Pat Thorman, had this in his snaps, you know, preview article on,

Estabust the Run. Especially when Jackson Dart was in the lineup, they were running a lot more no huddle and with pace. I think they probably just kind of implement that a little bit more even with Russ. So I think there just could be

more opportunity and volume in this game. So lots of outs for Slayton. They catch one 16-yard pass and they can call it a day. It only takes one. As the four-for-four betting subscribers know, on the longest plays we just need the one i wonder if caesar is opposed like the old longest reception ones because i think he's ripe for like a 20 or 30 even um so yeah i might dabble on that

i'll see i haven't i haven't checked seizures yet though but i like i like that look slayton's like slayton's like one of my highest own best ball players slayton dart stacks we're like are going to lead me to financial freedom here uh in uh yeah it's like i'm like 25% of both which is disgusting and way like would probably insulting the most best ball bros to be honest but um Hey, my back back. I love it. Yeah, I love it. I mean, it's hard not to be excited what you saw with Dart. You know, another guy with big A-DOT at Ole Miss,

fits neighbors, Fitz Slaten, Slayton, completely disrespected in like any platforms, ADP, best ball or redraft or any of that stuff. So, yeah, a couple of looks here again, if you're watching on 4-4-4 live on YouTube, you can see Sharpstack up. It's the EV tool. Again, say, suite of betting tools. 4.4.com slash plans. Again, this is the top tier plan.

If you get this, you buy Sharpstack. That plan comes with everything. So you'll get all of our picks. You'll get DFS. You get season long. You get all that stuff. So the EV tool is basically a top-down tool leveraging sharp book-making books against slower moving domestic books, finding EV from a bet perspective, long-term

if you're thinking about staking these bets long-term, like this type of bet is going to win out over time. Lots of great little things here again. Evie tool is the bell of the ball of the tools. Connors highlighting a few things here for us to look at. Yeah, I wanted to run through a couple here. I mean, Calvin Ridley receptions under 4 and a half minus 112 right now at BetRivers. I mean, as high as minus 165 at Fliff like, you know, builder right here is minus 141. I mean, it probably shouldn't be minus 112. So I think that's like something that if you have access to by Rivers is a good look hard rocks boasted a bunch of awful lines too marvin mooms receptions like three and a half receptions minus 135 minus one 70 minus 180 on fandul so like some of these

i mean some of these are just like way off again like collar murray passing touchdowns like i mean again this is like widely minus 140 pinnacles minus 155 on the under and you're getting minus 117 so when i say that like i've tried to tell some of ourselves i'm like look this stuff is like popping. I can't like fat I can't like overestimate how much I'm talking about here because like MLB stuff was good NBA stuff was solid but then NFL week one stuff comes around and like some of these books are just like a sleep at the wheel like this is like they're again like I was just showing you some examples like 40 to 50 cents off of like you know what other books are at so maybe you don't even like that bet bet it and then bet it back on the other book and like you could

probably have a middle or you can have an orb if you want like you'd end up not liking it because it's probably only going to move one way. So I don't know, just highlighted it a couple here. But I think these are some good ones already that we already looked at. I mean, this is pretty interesting. Yeah, look, I mean, there's going to be some books here where, yeah, it's going to be hard for you to get down. But again, you have all the books here that are available to you.

We haven't have clean accounts in some of these particular books. Again, we've, it's not like we haven't seen, you know, options here to take advantage of on Caesars or Fandual, books that are more widely available for people that, you know, get down the full state that they're looking for. We know that some of these books are hard for people. They might not even be available in your state. Again, there's also the pick-em element, too.

If you don't have, you know, you're not in a domestic, you know, legal betting state, and you want to be able to take advantage of leveraging some of this stuff on draft Kings pick six, underdog, prize picks. You can do that here too. And like, let's make a pick-six WMBA slip because why not? Because, again, it's not just football. We can pick off soft baseball lines here in September, playoff baseball, you know, anything we're going to be able to find an advantage on.

Let's get down and win some money. Yeah. Last little bit I tease the subscribers is market-based projections that we just launched. So like basically taking the market, the sharp markets and, you know, waiting them essentially and then creating like projections based on that. So you can use that for betting. It's kind of basically just like a different way of looking at the event. tool if you want like we're already kind of doing the math for you on the eb tool but like for dfs for

fantasy for just like another projection point on like what you like i guess are considering on on anything i think it's a pretty good standpoint so we have you know quarterbacks running backs wide receivers tight ends anything that has a market will have you know market based projection for and then eventually we'll work in like touchdowns and stuff too just haven't gotten there yet so this is actually free as well as the odd screens are free so like the odd screen the prop screen both free for now And then the other stuff, you can get a seven-day free trial just automatically when you sign up. So contested off for week one. I mean, again, like I went through like four awesome bets in 30 seconds that I think are all worth popping.

Plus anything that's popping on this is good. But those four that I went through, I think are just like legit awesome bets right now. Yeah, 444.com slash plans for move the line listeners. You can use promo code MTL. You're going to get 25% off of any subscription at 4-4, including the Sharpstack one. So again, take advantage, reach out directly if you have any questions. We'd love to be able to help you out. But it's been something to supplement kind of the dry season here in the summer.

We had it in demo mode on the WMBA and baseball side. But now it is Christmas morning with all of these NFL props and markets. And as we continue to get more books and more markets, part of it right now is just some of these books are real slow in certain markets. But once floodgates open on Sunday, inactive. coming in and out. I mean, a huge, huge advantage to have this screen open on a Sunday morning, you know, right around inactive time to be able to just hammer some stuff.

It's going to be a lot of fun. I forgot to and not. We're doing a live show too on Sundays in inactivs. 10.30, 11.30 Eastern, I guess. 1030 Central. Around there, 1025, probably just hop on, talk about some bets. Look at this, have this pulled up and just fire away for like 20 minutes. hit some late breaking news and you know log off it'll just like a fun crazy 15 20 minutes yeah

yeah i cannot wait so yeah again if you have questions let us know again this is news not for uh you you know you can still connor nice still originating our own place right what we've done the foundation of the betting subscription and what we do it for for still in play but uh yeah we we uh i like just a supplement so love it's it's it's all i got that's it that was a good week one hour seven minutes we thought 30 i said 30 40 uh we just got going on the other games and never never 40 minutes it'll always be yeah never 40 minutes i hear the wife opening up the garage door because she's ready for me to come uh go pick up my son for school so yeah we're ready to go so again uh move with line wherever you listen to podcast four for four

live on the youtube channel again we'll be back on friday for prop drop 3 p m eastern myself connor and slop for connor i'm ryan we'll see you all next time thanks everybody