Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 1 NFL Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions

Episode Date: September 6, 2023

🏈 Welcome to "The ULTIMATE Week 1 NFL Betting Guide where we go over our best bets, tell you where to find the best betting odds, and share some of our top predictions for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season! 🏈In this comprehensive guide, we're diving deep into Week 1 of the NFL season, breaking down the best bets, odds, and predictions that you NEED to know. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or a newbie, we are your one-stop shop for maximizing your winnings this NFL season. Join us to increase your chances of winning with our expert advice and stay ahead of the curve with the latest odds and predictions.Timestamps:0:00 Intro6:26 Panthers vs Falcons Best Bets14:28 Eagles vs. Patriots Best Bets23:58 Packers vs. Bears Best Bets32:25 Dolphins vs. Chargers Best Bets40:26 Bills vs. Jets Best Bets50:39 More Week 1 Bets59:53 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Oh, and welcome to Move the Line, I'm Ryan Noonan, this show is presented to you by FanDuel Sportsbook, excited to talk football with my friends, Real Football Games, Sharp Clark and Connor Allen. We will be here every week. I'm so excited. Connor, this is year six. I cannot believe we've been doing this for six years, buddy. You were like 14 at the time.

I probably could have gone to jail for starting a podcast with you at that time. I don't know what the statute of limitations are on that. I don't know about myself now. Connor, what's going on, bud? Not much. I think that I just tried to tweet out the link, and I tweet out the wrong link. So it's a great start to week one. I'm pumped to be here.

What did you say, year six we're in? Is that seriously where we're in at this point? Hey, no, so shout-outs if anyone's been hanging around with us for a long time. Rest in peace, the Quant Edge TQE days. We had two years on TQE, and this is year four at 4 for 4. So, yeah, six years we have been doing this thing together. So we're getting smarter as we go because we started to bring in sharper people to talk NFL sides and totals, getting one of the best originators himself in these streets here with us every week.

If you've been hanging with us all preseason, you are familiar with this stuff. It is our buddy, Sharp Clark. Clark, what's going on, bud? Not much. Ready? Deep breath. It's about to start, and it'll fly by. It'll be January, Sharp Clark. Clark, what's going on, bud? Not much. Ready? Deep breath. It's about to start, and it'll fly by. It'll be January in no time.

Oh, I know. I know. I hate when it ends, but yeah, excited to finally get here and talk about real football games. Three of us are going to be here every Wednesday, 4 p.m. Eastern on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. Should be able to find the podcast in your podcast feeds Wednesday evenings, Thursday mornings. So

subscribe to both so you don't miss a show. Supporting the free content by subscribing. Again, while you're hanging out on YouTube, we're doing the podcast thing goes a long way in helping us and continue to bring really great free content to you and bringing some of the best tools and content in the industry over at 444. So take a second, click that button, thumbs up on the video, comments, reviews, and the podcast, all those things go a really long way in helping us out. If you are hanging out with us on YouTube,

jump in the chat, let us know what your favorite bet of week one is. We'd love to hear from you. Again, actual games now. So it is time for us to turn the lights on for our second weekly show every week, Move the Line Prop Drop, back on Fridays, 3 p.m. Eastern. Connor, myself, and Slop Rules himself, John Hyslop,

will be joining us every week to talk props. If you are familiar with Slop on Twitter, he is going to bring us some wild stuff this season. It should be a lot of fun. I'm sure he'll bring you some off-the-wall stuff. We'll get off the board. We'll have some pretty negative EV four-leg parlays, I'm sure. Some stuff that Slop will bring unique to the show this year.

Trying to keep it fresh. Again, Fridays, trying to do our best. The prop markets are, again, really wild to time to be able to give you something. And the design of that show was going to be not to tell you about the things that we bet early in the week, the things that are dead. We're going to try to give you things that are exclusively live for you to bet while you're watching. So it's going to be crucial to be, cause we're happy with watching. That podcast is not going to be as valuable to you as the YouTube show live will be. So find us on YouTube. Again, that's going to be 3 PM Eastern on Fridays. You're going to want to be 3 p.m. Eastern on Fridays.

You're going to want to check that out. Also a great time to scoop the betting sub at four for four. For some reason, you've been hanging out with us. Let's do all of the off-season content, all the divisional previews, all the futures. And you've just been like, Hey, I want to wait until the season starts. It is here. The betting sub gets you access to everything on the sites. We have a fantastic deal right now. Connor tweeted it out this morning. It is here. The betting sub gets you access to everything on the sites. We have a fantastic deal right now. Connor tweeted it out this morning. It is limited and it will go. So if you are hanging out with us now and you have the access to do so, get the betting sub. 404.com slash plans. The next 45 or so people that subscribe, we have a hundred dollar fanatics gift card coming your way um so you're basically

you're almost getting it for half off you're gonna buy something to fanatics this year anyway birthday gifts something for yourself uh you know something for your man cave jersey for your kid hopefully hopefully not a jersey for you necessarily depending on you know you're over 40 or so maybe back off on the jerseys for yourself i'll be you know for your kid or something like that uh fanatics gift cards lots of different things to go and buy over there. $300 for getting a betting stuff. So 444.com slash plans. And then the next few will get those $100 sent to you via Fanatics.

So great stuff. Want to check that out. Again, if you also want to get another deal, you miss out on that, DM any of us. I'll be able to get you a promo code and let you get started in there too. All right, gentlemen. Week one. Handicapping is a little unique. Obviously, we have a group of games that have been live and bet on pretty extensively since the middle of April.

That is going to lead to some line movement. And we're also dealing with more, I guess, like narrative-based handicapping, more speculative decisions based off of off-season moves, coaching changes, pre-season narratives. We don't really know. We have an idea of what these teams are going to look like. Again, you could argue that having one game in the bag is not going to give us all that we need either. But again, a little bit of a unique piece in terms of handicapping.

So Clark has a pretty substantial amount of week one action already booked. Again, those bets have been released live to our subscribers in our Discord. So I'm sure he's going to mention some of that there. And again, wish you would have got in on that with us if you didn't. But again, we're trying to do our best to share some stuff today based off of how the board currently stands. So let's jump into it. We're going to give you our favorite five.

Again, not necessarily the best five, but five games that we like. Leaning on some of the plays that we think, or maybe some leans based off of the news that we get over the next couple of days. Then kind of wrap up with some of our other looks that we like here at the end. But we'll start in the division. We will go to the NFC South. We have Carolina on the road in Atlanta. Let me see where we are now we are basically three and

a half across the board total mostly sitting out there at 39 and a half as well week one historically not been kind to number one overall picks getting the start at cornerback clark uh bryce young is going to be the 14th one to do it over the last 20 years if he and the panthers win he will be the first one over that time frame to get a win. Talk to me about this one. Handicapping week one is always going to be a bit of a different process than handicapping season-long futures, which is what we've been focused on somewhat. Because the question is, who are they now? Not who do we think they will become over the course of the season.

And both of these two teams have massive question marks, primarily at quarterback, but elsewhere as well. I, you know, based on my numbers, these are two teams that I have kind of variance ratings for each team in terms of, you know, how quickly am I going to adjust them as the season goes on? Both of these are teams that I'm looking to adjust as I get new evidence. So I don't have strong priors, but even my strong priors say, you know, Atlanta minus 3.4 is about right. So, you know, at minus three, I lean Atlanta, but I'm not playing it. At plus three and a half, I lean Carolina, but I'm not playing it. This is a game that I'm very interested in watching. Atlanta's, you know, talk about playing positionless football with the pieces they have in offense is really exciting to me.

I think that there is a way of thinking that is going to become standardized somewhat in the NFL among teams that don't have an elite quarterback. And it's going to be this way of playing football where you create mismatches with, you know, players that can play running back and receiver players that can play tight end or out wide. You know, Atlanta is doing that right now. Detroit is too, but Atlanta is doing it. And I'm excited to see how it looks, especially against a good defense in Carolina. You know, last year, the Panthers rated pretty well for me on defense. They've got some really good players. Brian Burns matters a lot, and he is maybe holding out. He's holding in, I guess. He's at practice, but he's not really

participating fully, so we'll see how that goes. If Brian Burns doesn't play, then I think that is a very good thing for Atlanta. Instead, what I'm looking at for this game is the total. It opened at 43, 42 and a half. And over the course of the offseason, bettors have been betting it down, betting the under, in part because they were unimpressed with Bryce Young's preseason performances. And in part because I think skepticism about Desmond Ritter

and how much the Falcons are actually going to pass the ball has kind of overtaken. So they're thinking a lot of running, a lot of slow playing and two inefficient quarterbacks, you know, play the under. But I like the over at 39 and a half because I think both of those angles are a little bit overplayed. Like, yes, Bryce Young looked bad in his preseason debuts, but like he got some reps out there and he looks like he's able to process NFL defenses pretty well. We'll see how that translates in the regular season. But the Falcons defense will have to be much, much better than it was last year to even put up a fight. And on the other side of the ball,

like I said, I'm excited about that positionless football. Last year, the Falcons went over 39 and a half and 10 of their 17 games. So did the Panthers. And I think that both teams have arguably gotten better on offense. So I think this is a situation where the total has just gotten too low for my, for my taste. Yeah. Connor, we need to watch the Brian Burns injury news. We're recording on a Wednesday afternoon, so we're getting kind of the first look at injury reports and some stuff that is trickling out. So something to watch and monitor as the week gets closer here.

Also, we have some receiver issues in terms of practice on the Carolina side as well, which could be impactful too. I'm sure Clark would want that sussed out a little bit more clearly before backing them. Otherwise we're going to have a reliance on maybe Jonathan Mingo and LaVisca Chenault, maybe having more prominent roles that we would want in terms of anyone wanting to cover it over in any sense. Two new defense coordinators here.

You know, Elijah Evero is a guy that you've been very high on. He's a guy who we think is going to be a future head coach, has some talent that he's acquired, and then coming into a new situation in Atlanta, who, again, bolstered a lot of off-season moves too. Ryan Nielsen has been a part of that Saints staff in the division for a while. Saints pretty consistently under Dennis Allen, pretty good defenses, do some unique things. I'm interested to see the dynamic in that as well. Give me your thoughts here on this division matchup.

Yeah, I think the interesting part, you know, DJ Chark, DNP today, not boating well, I think, for his week one status. Adam Thielen limited, and I think he's probably going to play, if I had to guess, just based on what we've seen so far. So that's fine. But at the same time, I wasn't really high on this receiving core in general. If we look at what they did in preseason, I went and looked at kind of their run pass splits there. Now this is obviously not always indicative of what we see. The first two games, they went extremely run heavy.

It was about like 50-50 split. Then the third game, they just let Bryce Young let it rip. Like it was like, let him pass the ball, let him do whatever. And obviously there were some ups, there were some downs. Now I think that was kind of like an intro to just get him as many reps as possible in the preseason.

I personally think that we're probably going to see more of a run heavy approach here against a Falcons defense that I don't think necessarily is in a great position to stop them. And also beyond that, there's a ton of concern about the offensive line. Like, do you really want to go out with receivers banged up your offensive line, not playing well and go pass heavy? Now, that being said, it's not necessarily a go out with receivers banged up, your offensive line not playing that well, and go pass heavy? Now, that being said, it's not necessarily a disagreement against Clark's take on the total, because I think that both the Falcons and the Panthers can get there

just by running the ball. And that's like, or at least focusing primarily on that, because the Falcons run game, like even though they were playing tough opponents, even though they were playing teams where, you know, we were a little bit worried about their offensive line, they were still dominant in the running game because of what Arthur Smith set up smart Smith set up. And now you have quarter L Patterson playing some kind of

weird Joker role, Bijan Robinson, Tyler Algier being more of a pounder. Like there's so many different ways that they can be multiple. And like, that doesn't even include Drake London and Kyle pits on top of that, you know, from talking with people at training camp or went to training camp in the Falcons, they basically said that doesn't Ritter is going to get a ton of different pre-snap reads. He's really good at executing the offense. And while it may be a little bit more college-esque, I would think of it more as like a Jared Goff Rams type of vibe where you're having someone help you and hold your hand a little bit.

And as long as you can execute, you can be good offensively. So I'm expecting not very much passing overall, to be entirely honest, but I still think they could do well offensively. So for me, it's kind of a no play play overall but i'll probably look for it more in the props market we touch on this in the divisional preview series i know you know clark uh any of our subscribers know it took pretty early action and pretty substantial action on the falcons um and early and i think was part of that line movement um and you know there's optimism on on what we have to see here at quarterback

you know our ritter sample is really small 136 dropbacks talked about how that was really like a beat-up cardinal secondary the bucks who basically rested their starters in the second half need to see a little bit more i am bullish on arthur smith being someone that can maximize talent i know sometimes it gets clouded in the fantasy space and the prop space. Like we're talking about like someone who's not really clear on who he's going to use and when he's going to use them. But like from an overall game planning standpoint, I feel like he, even last year, like, look, we can like poke holes about what they did.

He knew what he had. He knew what he had and the limitations to what he had. And he said, the only way we can really be competitive is to control the ball, take the ball out of Mariota's hands, keep our defense off the fields. Like I at least liked the fact that he said, I have to be able to game plan based off of what I have. He's got a little bit more now. The defense is a little bit better. I liked the Nielsen move coordinator wise. They brought in a ton of new faces defensively, you know, some kind of middle

of the pack but again like i think a refresh overall that i'm optimistic about so kind of a wait and see overall for me i would lean falcons i don't think we're going to get a three um but i'd still lean three and a half it's not a play for me now um i think clark makes a good point as we start to kind of move down below some key numbers that that 39 and a half is interesting i'm interested to see if any of this like injury news kind half is interesting i'm interested to see if any of this like injury news kind of moves the market as well to see if that continues to maybe move in our favor but uh definitely an interesting watch and again these there's a handful of teams just early i really really want to see what this is going to be after all the speculation the off

season that's kind of why week one is very unique. So I definitely chalk this one up to a game I want to watch and see how everyone kind of evolves. All right, next we have the Eagles on the road in New England. This feels like a sharp versus square type situation. This has been, I think, kind of hanging out there for all of us. Looks like we're basically four everywhere. I was kind of opened at three and a half for a little bit. Four, 45 is the total in most spots as well. Again, you're just feeling like we're betting on what we saw last with these teams. We're betting on a middle of last season New England versus a Philly team that was absolutely rolling. This one feels really strange to us. Why is this only three and a half?

I do feel like there's probably a lot of sharp money, just kind of, hey, New England's at home, getting more than a field goal type of situation. I don't think any of us are very bullish on the Patriots for some reason. I may be the most bullish out of all of us, and I'm not really bullish. I think we all think that the Eagles are legit. But, you know, Clark, I'll let you kick it off with the Eagles and Pats here. It's funny that you,

you pointed it as a sharps versus squares because I actually think that there are sharp groups on both sides kind of wrestling here. Yeah. This number opened, I think three and a half. And then, you know, there was some love on Philadelphia, push it all the way up to five. And then there was some buyback on new England, push it down back towards three. Now I think it's at four. And I think there's some serious money, some sharp money on both sides. And I think the case can be made, right?

On New England side, you've got Bill Belichick as a home underdog in week one with a whole off season to prepare for Jalen Hurts, right? The team has struggled with mobile running quarterbacks in the past, but has Bill Belichick ever been stumped by an NFL offense in his career? Right. I think the answer is no. And then the second thing is that the Eagles, there's a little bit of sort of perception inflation from their run last year that really happened under ideal circumstances outside of the games that Jalen

Hertz missed, which they looked bad in. The Eagles had incredible health throughout the whole year. They played a very easy schedule. You know, they got by San Francisco in the playoff game with, you know, with the quarterback injuries and, and they looked really, really good in the Superbowl. So outside of that Superbowl, there was nothing really that convinced a lot of betters that this was truly an elite team. So I think there, you know, people looking to kind of fade the steam on the Eagles, the off season steam and, you know, backing Bo Balicic at home is a good way to do that but like you said i'm i can't get there um and there's the other side which is also pretty sharp saying you know the eagles are front

runners right they're they're at their best when they're controlling the line of scrimmage when jalen hurts has time when they're when they can run the ball and they have the lead and they can use that running game to force single coverage on the outside. And then AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, two of the best, you know, single coverage receivers in the league. That's exactly where the Eagles want to be. And when they're there, they blow teams out. So the number being, you know, relatively low, it's still pretty high for a road road favorite, but, you know, relatively low in terms of, you know, three and a half, four, that's a number that Eagles can easily crush. So I understand the action on both sides.

It's a game that I've gone back and forth on, but this year I'm following my model and my model doesn't see an edge. So this is a game, another game I'm excited to watch. I'm also not playing the over-under because even though Bill Belichick has struggled against running quarterbacks, I think we can sometimes get a little bit locked into kind of a small sample size,

like, oh, well, New England's defense just can't handle it. You know, they have athletes, right? I mean, they've been slower in the past. That hasn't helped them in terms of covering quarterbacks to get outside the pocket. Their defense looks a little faster this year. They've made some upgrades. You know, we'll see how they turn out, especially the rookies. But this is a very, very big question mark for me. I would love to

see the Eagles crush the Patriots for my futures bets against the Patriots, but it's not, again, something that I'm looking to bank on before I see them on the field. They also have a new offensive coordinator. And last year, the offense was terrible in part because they didn't have an offensive coordinator. They had a defensive assistant calling plays for the offense. That's never going to get it done, especially when you have a quarterback that shits his pants every time he's under pressure. So I think they're going to do a better job of putting Matt Jones in a position to succeed. Whether or not that succeeds against this defense, big question mark. So yeah, I'm moving past this game. Excited to watch it, but moving

past in the betting markets. Yeah, we have to watch some injury issues here as well. We've had the Riley Reif right tackle put on IRR. He'll miss the first four games. A lot of the other interior offensive linemen have missed a bunch of time. It seemed to be turning in the right direction. Just not a matchup that you want in week one to come into and have offensive line issues considering how poorly Mac Jones was under pressure last year as well again totally different situation i do think obviously having a non-defensive coach calling plays is uh is definitely exciting i think connor i don't want to steal where you're at but like either way the offensive coordinator being better is awesome but when levante parker and kendrick board are like massive parts of your

offense there's still just a ceiling here that's really really hard to to reach and well yeah i agree like philly might be front runners they might be really good in those situations when they can run the ball and dominate and use their offensive line and but they also were really efficient when they were throwing the ball and in neutral game situations they were like the eighth most passed heavy team in the league did so encouragingly it was really good to see kind of the growth year in and year out that we've seen from hertz second straight year yards per attempt up adjusted completion percentage up time to throw down turnover worthy plays down like that's something that i'm encouraged with if they are are in closer games. They aren't blowing teams out.

You know, the coordinator change. Yes. Like, but Brian Johnson's been there and they're like boys. So like, I think that that matters a little bit less. Yeah.

I don't know. I don't know. The new England is a team that can take advantage of some of the early questions we have on Philly. If at all, Connor. Yeah. I just can't get there at all with the Patriots.

And I'm sure you guys expected that after the season but like for me my only angle where i could see like counter angle to the patriots covering would be the defense like truly stifling the offense and like bill belichick coming up with something that we haven't really seen before and that stifles the the the offense because if we look at these matchups here, the Patriots offense, specifically three offensive linemen right now, injured and are limited right now today in practice. Devante Parker also limited with the knee injury. Juju Smith Schuster came out, said his knee could explode a quote anytime. Now that doesn't matter for this game specifically, but I mean, he's not all that good to begin with. He was very clearly washed playing with Patrick was not all that good. So the whole Bill O'Brien narrative also

massively overrated. I mean, at this point I'm so far out on this, like, yeah, sure. It's probably an upgrade from the donkeys that they had there before, but like in terms of him being a good offensive coordinator, very much out on that as well. So you have a bad offensive line with a middling quarterback, I would say in Mac Jones, maybe undecided. And one of the worst wide receivers cores in the league. I mean, against a Philly defense that I think to be fair is probably a little bit overrated, but in the sense that they're probably not a top two unit, more like a top 10 unit instead.

And whereas the Patriots on paper were a top three unit overall, I think there may be like a fringe top 15 unit. And I know that that might be disrespectful, but we look at the splits last year. And while some of the teams in the splits were really aggressive outside of the splits, when they played a bad team or teams in the splits were really aggressive outside of the splits, when they played a bad team or backup quarterback, they were top three in basically every metric. When they didn't, like the other nine games, 29th in EPA, 27th against Bass, 25th in EPR.

Like there's so many different metrics you can look at. They were terrible against relatively average or good teams defensively. So just like all of these factors going together like there are some angles where i can maybe see why people might think the patriots are good play but in my mind it's just like so so clear that it is a terrible play on the patriots so i'm very much in on the eagles um i will be taking the minus three and a half minus six and a half maybe minus nine and a half i mean i don't care just ladder it all the way up saddle up boys i'll be interested to see if the subscribers go back to the well because uh eagles first half over 13 and a half eagles first half over one and a half touchdowns was uh

very very profitable consistently last year uh so again they again very specific to last year and again that schedule being as advantageous as it was i get why it's just kind of like a you know a blind bet almost for some just just based off of this number and the situation, just knowing that the Eagles are going to have a little more steam based off of expectations for last year. But wait and see for me. I don't see the path for New England personally in this one. I do just think it's a bad spot for them to kind of be the team

that's going to answer, hey, look, hey, a lot of turnover on Philly's side. Can they be the team that takes advantage of that? I don't really know that they can be the team that takes going to answer, Hey, look, Hey, a lot of turnover on Philly side. Can they be the team that takes advantage of that? I don't, I don't really know that they could be the team that takes advantage of that out the gates. Um, can they survive? Um, yeah, the Eagles are going to regress with their pressure rate. They're not going to be able to convert 70 sacks off of that pressure rate again. That's true. But is like new England, the team that's going to really slow them down, uh, in their first week? I don't really think so. So I would lean Philly. Again, fours mostly across the board at this point.

I don't know where the blocking point is. I'm not chasing ladders like Connor is, but I kind of understand the optimism. Yeah, it's a really rough start for New England schedule-wise. So I don't really see a win on the schedule for the first little bit. Yeah, I will say, like, I was kind of wishy-washy on mine. If you're going to pick them pool, you have to pick every game against the spread. Like I would go Eagles.

So that's my lean, but it's just not something I want to put my money in. You know, serious money behind. Yeah. No, that's a good way of, of summing it up. We don't have to take a strong stance or have a better lean on,

on every side. All right. Next we are another divisional game here. Green Bay in Chicago. The bears were basically two and a half to open. or lean on uh on every side all right next we are another divisional game here green bay in chicago the bears were basically two and a half to open we're down to one in most spots our friends here at fanduel minus one and a half um on the bear side that's uh juice down though it's minus 104 to back the bears here total 42 42 and a half onuel. So you can shop that around if you have any interest there. I think really a lot of question marks in this division. It was an interesting one for us

to unpack in the preseason. And I think this one means a little bit more than a lot of the other week one games, at least in terms of how the market's going to be shaped moving forward, coming out of it. I think the prevailing narrative is going to be, especially if it's Chicago, is that they are a real sleeper. some of the pre-season positivity was justified this is just the third time in the past 27 matchups connor where the bears are actually favored against green bay again part of that's quarterback change it's basically been farvin rogers for you know almost three decades and it's kind of a changing the guard not a lot of bears optimism from us in the preseason. Where are you at in terms of this week one line? Yeah, there's some changing things here going on. And I think this specific matchup is really interesting to handicap. Clark got a plus

three early in the preseason, you know, shout out to him because I think that was very clearly the play at this point. We're looking at right now across the board, you know, Bears minus one, minus one and a half. I think if I were to play right now, I'd probably still play the Packers money line. But I do think though, we're looking at the other side, the bear side of the ball. I think they're going to go run heavy. We have two games against them last year. They ran the ball 27 times and threw it just 11 times, despite losing, getting their asses kicked in the first night meeting.

Then the second meeting, they ran at 25 through a 25. Now I know that they added some, you know, obviously offensive line guys at a DJ Moore, like things could look differently, but I think that they found something specific matchup wise that probably makes sense. And it does make sense. The Packers last year were dead last and run DEPA per play, you know, didn't really add a ton that would make me think too much otherwise. And so I think the bears probably go run heavy here. Now I'm a little bit worried though, on this green Bay passing game, because now you have Christian Watson limited Romeo Dobbs limited so Jaden Reed probably is going to you know I guess be their main guy but he was gonna be a slot guy predominantly so I don't know I I'm kind of like a little bit more wishy-washy than I once was but would probably

still lead towards the Packers here because maybe we've been Justin Fields haters on the show but I think we've been very realistic like he's a good electric running quarterback, but until he puts it together as a passer, until he trusts his offensive line, trust his receivers get open. I just can't get there from a full game perspective. And I think the defense still has questions as well. Yeah. Clark, where are you on this one? I mean, there's been some steam obviously moved and we haven't moved through any key numbers per se, but we moved closer to a pick them. What are your thoughts on this matchup i'm torn on this one especially

at current prices because my numbers really like green bay i expect i i don't project chicago for that big of a jump forward especially on defense i do have them projected for a step forward on offense but even then they were so far behind green bay last year that you know jordan love would have to be pretty terrible you know he'd have to hit the very low end of his range of outcomes in order to justify the Bears being favorites in this game. And I just think that there's a better chance that Jordan Love is decent. He was a first-round pick with time to develop under Aaron Rodgers. This is a formula that has worked just about every time in the past. I have no reason to think that he's going to be terrible, especially with the positive comments coming out of Green Bay

from his teammates, from his coaches, from the beat reporters, everyone. It's just very impressed with him. The problem is we got the news reports today that Watson, Christian Watson, was not a practice. Romeo Doves has been injured for a while now. He could be rolling out there with complete rookies as wide receivers and tight ends playing receiver role. He might just be relying on the run game. That creates a lot of uncertainty that I don't really want to bet into.

And then on the other side of the ball, this is a terrible matchup for the Packers defense. Last year, running court, you know, we talk about the Patriots struggling with running quarterbacks. The Packers defense just got eaten alive by running quarterbacks last year. They played against the Bears twice and Philly once. Those were their true running quarterbacks they faced. Against the Bears in game one, they allowed 180 rushing yards on 6.7 yards per carry. Against Philly, they allowed 363 rushing yards on 7.4 yards per carry. And then against Chicago in game two, they allowed 155 rushing yards on 6.2 yards per carry.

If you give up over six yards per carry against a run heavy team, you're just going to, they're just going to march down the field and whether or not they get in the end zone is a big question. Like I'm yet, I've yet to see Justin Fields put together that kind of, you know, finishing the drives consistently, you know, with his route reading and timing passes, that kind of stuff becomes extra important in the red zone. You can't just run it in unless you're winning the offensive line battle, which, you know, maybe they do, maybe they don't. But it's just a terrible matchup for the Packers defense. And I do think they're going to do things a little differently this year. So it could be better, but it's again, it's a week one

game. And so those things that I project to change for the positive, I'm not betting on them necessarily to change. The line has been bet down. It was hovering between two and a half and three earlier in the off season. Now it's one. I think we're closer to the right number now. I think, you know, basically a pick them in Chicago is a fair breakdown for the skin. Yeah, I'm a, I'm torn too. I'm kind of with you guys. I mean, I, I don't love that the jordan love uh

sucks narrative i don't really um believe that i think maybe there's been a little bit optimism um you know in terms of the offseason stuff and some of the stuff that's come out of the you know reports and team reports has been a little bit more encouraging we just haven't seen much of it to really have a concrete take and you will start to get some of that obviously i think the handicap is contingent on watson and dobbs being active here but there's some injuries too on the defensive side for green bay and i worry about um you know if they're still bad and they're healthy early and they're still able to get run on a bit now they play a decent amount of man and we know that historically has been problematic against russian quarterbacks as well We saw that. I mean, Fields, it's not an accident that Fields,

great talent, incredible running quarterback. He had an insane run of defenses that play a ton of man. Great game against the Giants, who blitz a ton and play man. Great game against the Lions, two of them, top six in man rate. Great game against the Dolphins, top five in man rate. Packers, twice. It's like, so they played a ton of teams that play more man than anyone else i still expect fields to run but i think part of that was matchup based last year as well i think again similar to talking about hey is belichick

going to prepare for russian quarterback i think the green bay is prepared to to scheme a little bit different um and see what they can get from him and make him kind of beat them in the pocket. So I lean Green Bay. I also want to like, I don't want to double down on preseason leans, but it's like we were pretty clear on Green Bay being the team over, you know,

again, a lot of these Bears and Packers stuff in the preseason was almost the same. It's almost identical. So you're giving me basically a coin flip in week one. I definitely lean Green Bay. Green Bay may be an interesting teaser leg. If you're still looking to find one and a half, you can get that out to maybe seven and a half in a teaser leg.

That could be something that could be of interest to me too. But again, I want to wait and see what happens with Christian Watson and Romeo Dobbs before taking any action. But I expect Green Bay to be ready to stop the run a little bit more. Yeah, we had Fabian summer in the comments here say without looking name two packers wide receivers outside of jayden reed watts and if watson and dobbs are out uh i couldn't i thought of samari toure just like you did clark i mentioned the comments and uh isn't that like wicks like it's nothing but first and second year guys yeah don tavian wicks and malik heath yeah okay uh nothing like supporting your you know pretty green quarterback uh with

don tavian and you know heath like yeah so if josiah uh dagura is active for game day he'll be the only pass catcher non like you know receiver of tight ends that's not a first or second year guy. It is a young team offensively, which I think part of why we were buying into some of the upside that I think could be here too. Unfortunately, Joe Barry's back on the defensive side, but if they could be healthy, that could help them a lot. They had a lot of injuries last year. So Eileen Green Bay, I want to wait and see what happens with the injuries there. But going to be another one that's, I think, really important in terms of how the lines start to get shaped

in the first month of the season based off of this result. All right, our next game, another one that's very interesting. Miami is on the road in LA against the Chargers. Let's see where we are updated now. We have basically three across the board on the Chargers side. Total at FanDuel is 50.5. It's moved to 51 in some places. So take a look there.

This is a rematch from a stinker, really. Late season stinker. Last season, 23-17 Chargers. Home win against the Dolphins. I'm not putting a ton of weight into it. I don't know about you guys. I just think Tua late in the season last year, just not himself. Probably shouldn't even been on the field, to be honest. The Chargers did do some

stuff that was a little bit different in terms of how they played defensively all season in that game. They played a lot of press coverage and really tried to slow down the timing routes. Again, you got Tua picking apart man or zone coverage, getting the ball out quickly. He was awesome last year. Went healthy early in the season before the concussions started to pile up. Chargers really didn't let them do that. They did have a big play to Tyreek, but that was – Michael Davis fell down on that play, so even that was kind of a broken play.

Interested to see here when Miami has the ball or when the Chargers have the ball because we have new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio on Miami's side. We're all very bullish on the Kellen when the other chargers have the ball, because we have, you know, new defensive coordinator and Vic Fangio on Miami side, we're all very bullish on the Kellen Moore led chargers offense based off of our AFC West preview. But Connor, I'll let you get started here on Miami and the chargers. Yeah. I think the more that I thought about it,

like I did put a little bit more stock into it than I think what you're saying in terms of like what we saw, because I do agree that he probably shouldn't have on the field. And I think that was more, I don't know, I guess noticeable in the green Bay game, particularly where he was of like what we saw, because I do agree that he probably shouldn't have on the field. And I think that was more, I don't know, I guess, noticeable in the green bay game particularly where he was just like, you know, very clearly throw into the other team and like was all over there. And I think that some of that existed in the game against the chargers, but I went back and watched the game this week leading up to this, because I thought it was

really interesting is basically just about interrupting their RPOs and the dolphins lack of a run game to kind of counter what the charges were doing at the time. And so what they were doing is they would press and they wouldn't, weren't allowing receivers to get open early. So Tua would look for, you know, his receiver. And then basically the chargers had their defensive ends like bull rush Tua. So even though that left the running back open, it caused the pass to be a little bit more erratic. And so the way that that worked, it left them a little bit exposed at times, but Tua just like, wasn't able to overcome that, you know, something they really hadn't seen at this point. So it was like, I would say a perfectly dialed up game plan and they struggled. I mean, they had scored that fluke touchdown off of like, you know, whatever

Tyreek, I think Clark, you tweeted it out, like, you know, catching that random fumble and then running at 60 yards. So really, I mean, looking at what, 10 offensive points, like in that game, really bad showing from a team that against a Chargers team that was not healthy at all, had been getting hemorrhaging points for most of the season. I remember I was on a bunch of overs, and it was very disappointing to say the least. So in this spot here, I'm a little bit concerned. I think that the under is a good play here for a couple of reasons.

So one, I think that the Chargers defense schematically can match up against the Dolphins. I think they'll have a little bit more success than they did last time, but it's going to be a chess match. Mike McDaniel's going to have to figure out other ways to get around what the Chargers did last time. And then the other side of the ball, all the talk all off season has been Kellen Moore, Kellen Moore, Kellen Moore, going to push the ball further downfield. Well, Vic Fangio and one of the staples of his defense is keeping the ball in front of him, making sure it's like a bend but don't break kind of approach

here. They added some talent defensively, obviously not having Jalen Ramsey kind of stinks, but that those two kind of approaches, I think clash a little bit. So in that sense here, like if, if the Dolphins are able to keep the ball in front of them and they're not getting exposed deep, like, I think it's just going to cause them to slow the game down a little bit more, be a little bit more meticulous, maybe make some more mistakes deep downfield if that's what he's been instructed to do. So I'm on the under here. 51, I think is a little bit too high i can see why on paper both offenses are good and you expect a lot here but i think a little bit of a contrarian approach for week one i think that this is more like a 24 21 game than a 27 24 game all right and donate that

handicap at all definitely going to be the interesting side of the ball to watch i mean i think this game in general will be a great one to watch why it's on the's on the card. But that particular offense-defensive matchup is going to be something that I know we're looking forward to. Clark, what are your thoughts on Dolphins-Chargers? Yeah, Connor kind of took all my talking points. I also rewatched the game and came away with the exact same conclusions about what the Chargers did. You know, Ryan, it's funny that you phrased it as, you know, should we put too much stock into as bad performances late last year? I actually go the opposite direction and say, given the fact that Tua was pretty terrible for two full seasons before that,

I'm not putting too much stock in the first six or seven games that he was really good for of last year. I think I'm putting some stock in there. Like what Mike Medano was able to do to, you know, open up to his strengths in terms of quick processing quick decision making thrown open guys like yeah two is really good in those circumstances and he was way better than the backups you could see that anytime the backups had to play but i i view it more as defense is catching up and tua does not have a second gear like he he has he's basically know, a very quick processor that has to see

something quickly in the play. And if he doesn't see it, it's, it's a wild erratic throw or it's, you know, panicking under pressure. He can't throw on the run. Like, isn't that, it doesn't have the arm strength to make those throws. He can throw it like his bad throws are really, really, really bad. So I think what the Chargers did in terms of forcing him into those decisions by playing press man coverage, if they can replicate that this game, then yeah, I mean, it's not an offense I want to be backing into. My numbers actually like the Dolphins, though, if you just look at the numbers, because last year, I think they played in Miami and the Dolphins were three and a half point favorites. And so now we're going to LA and the Chargers are three, you know, bordering on three and a half point favorites. And so now we're going to LA, and the Chargers are three, you know,

bordering on three and a half point favorites. And that's a massive swing, considering both teams got better in the off season. I think if you are forced to play this game again, if you're in a pick and pull or whatever, taking the points with Miami is the way to go. I also don't hate teasing Miami up to nine. I know it's not a traditional Wong teaser

because it's not plus two and a half, but I think getting, you know, the three, you know, off of a push into a win, the four, the six, seven, eight, this is a game that like Connor said, could be lower scoring and, and whichever defense is losing or whichever offense losing late in the game. I have faith that they'll be able to put up enough explosive plays to close the gap. I see, I don't see either team really putting the pedal to the metal and dominating this game. One thing I'd look out for that makes me a little more hesitant

to back the Chargers if I was to go that way is the Dolphins probably will have a much better run game this year. That's something that Mike McDaniel's been focusing on in the offseason. And I think he kind of set up last year, and now he's kind of settling into what he wants to do, which is, I think, put less pressure onto a, you know force force defenses to account for the run better and the chargers were not good to that last year especially on outside runs so let's see what they do in the run game this is the most exciting game of the week for me in terms of two teams that could be competitors

could also not be great there's a wide range of outcomes this is always a great matchup you got the two of us Herbert angle you've got the new coaches on both sides this is going to be uh this is one that i'm really really looking forward to and you know sorry chargers fans we have about 96 hours until the kickoff there's still time for a catastrophic pre-game injury here uh that can massively handicap uh change the handicap here you know the chargers just at some point every preseason have someone that you're like oh crap this guy's out for the year so we haven't got there yet really uh so hopefully that holds off but uh yeah I mean early season game two in in LA I don't know like Dolphins they traveled decently well this is like a my pseudo Miami home game on the west coast um

you know that's always a problem for the Chargers. They just don't have any, any home games. You could have a lot of Florida transplants out there with their, you know, their fins gear on ready to go. So yeah, it'd be a great game to watch. I'm excited for it. I like that.

We have a nice, like late early window split. Like they don't, they didn't give us like three games in the late window. Hopefully I haven't looked all the way down. I'm sure the NFL found a way to blotch that up at some point in the season, but like having the least four or five games in the afternoon,

this is going to be nice. All right. Last one we're going to talk about in depth here is the Monday nighter, another divisional game in the AFC East Buffalo on the road against the Jets. Let's see where we're at now. We're still basically two and a half across the board on FanDuel. The total is 46 and a half. We are two and a half across the board. On FanDuel, the total is 46 and a half. We are two and a half on the Bills side. Again, basically since Tom Brady took his talents

to Siesta Key, the Bills have absolutely dominated this division. They've gone 15 and three over that time frame. There are not nearly as many divisional layups though this time around. Obviously all the teams we think are at least viable to win most of the games. Patriots context aside here, but this one's going to be very interesting. You didn't really get a lot of your thoughts here in the AFC East, Connor, because you were not with Clark and I. So I'm going to let you get started here with your Bills and Jets take here for week one. Yeah, this is a really tough one for me because I think that we look at this specifically here. The Jets defense is awesome. The Jets pass events locked up Josh Allen pretty well in their two

meetings last year, 205 and 147 passing yards, completing just 52 and 59% of his passes. I mean, just frankly, it wasn't all that good. Now that being said, I'm not sure that the Jets offense is going to be just like an automatic smash here. There's plenty of concerns on the offensive line. And I think that that was pretty visible throughout, you know, throughout preseason, throughout training camp and what we've seen, like projecting it on paper. Like, I don't think anyone would be surprised. They're not a good offensive line.

Now, I think that causes issues for a guy like Aaron Rodgers, where I'm not sure that at this point, like he's, everything is there. It would not be surprising to see him go to New York and then not play as well as we've seen him play in other, other years. So for me specifically in this matchup, it's kind of a stay away on the jets because yeah, like if Rogers comes out and plays like an MVP,

like they're going to be awesome. They won seven games with Zach Wilson and a bunch of bumps. Like, and the defense still remains to be like still figures to be great. Now, if he's just okay, if he can be that game manager, then I think that they're in a really good spot. Um, but I, again, like it's kind of just remains

to be seen. The bills defense should be a little bit better this year. Their past events was basically banged up all last season. So they're healthy. I think that should help as well. I expect the jets office to probably lean a lot on Dalvin cook here to start maybe a sprinkle of Brees hall. Maybe we're talking like, you know, seven, 10 touches early on touches early on here so honestly overall like I don't have a great handicap on this game I think the lines about right I think if I had to pick I'd probably pick the Bills but like I don't know I think there are concerns about the Bills too and on their side too yes uh hanging out at two and a half Clark uh any interest for you in uh again the team that you and I both picked to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl on the Buffalo Bills. Yeah, I finished my 32 days of team rankings today, and Bills are my number

one team. I have them winning the Super Bowl. They're the better team. I mean, they're primed for a Super Bowl run. The Jets, I think, have a lot of question marks. But the problem is, last year, the Bills' offensive struggles against the Jets were real, and they were grounded in the fact that the Jets have a front four that can create pressure and a secondary that can really cover elite receivers. When you can do that, you can combat the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and Josh Allen is one of those quarterbacks. So the Jets' defense is perfectly built to stop the Bills. They have the talent. They're healthy right now. This isn't a game that I think the Bills are just going to smash an offense.

I think it's going to be a struggle. But I think it's going to be the kind of struggle that the Bills are capable of winning. On the other side of the ball, the Jets were terrible last year with bad quarterback play. And they got themselves a quarterback. I don't think that Rodgers is washed. I also don't think that he's at his MVP level. I think somewhere in between. The Bills defense is also pretty good in its own right.

I was looking to play the under on this one. I think both offenses might come out a little bit slower than people expect, but the problem is the number was pretty low to start with, and I think now it's like 46 and a half. When you're getting two elite quarterbacks with a total of 46 and a half, that's a no play for me on the under. One thing that I think people like to look at is Aaron Rodgers has struggled in week one the past couple years. Last year, they lost 23-7 to Minnesota. They had 5.3 yards per pass. And then the year before, they lost 38-3 against New Orleans, 5.0 yards per pass. Those games were really terrible. And Rodgers did not play in either of those preseasons and looked

terrible in the first game. Obviously, he played for for the jets. And then if you go back one more year, this is why it's important not to just, you know, be swayed by recency bias. They beat Minnesota 43 to 34, averaging 8.3 yards per pass in their first game in 2020. He also didn't play that preseason. So I think that's just more,

you know, noise variants. Like they didn't have that many possessions against the saints. The saints defense was really good that year. I think I throw that all that out the window and I think this game comes down to whether or not you think the Jets home field advantage we're talking opening night or opening weekend Monday night football in New York this is going to be the craziest crowd like whatever your you know home field adjustment you know status is should be at the max for this game

based on this matchup I mean I think that is enough for me to kind of shy away from taking a strong position, especially given the uncertainty on who the Jets will be with Aaron Rodgers on offense. So another game, I mean, I know we picked these games for a reason, but just talking about these games just reiterates how excited I am to watch these games and get some data down that I can then build my numbers from and um it's going to be a great end to a great weekend of football i hope september 11th on top of it um for the monday nighter so like just you know anything else you want to add to the pile of above the max of whatever the home field advantage is it's it's there yeah so it's yeah i love that it's a prime timer i love that. That's a prime timer. I love that we can get that one isolated. I do think that, you know,

not having to worry about multitasking during that game and watching it solely right away is going to be a fantastic. So yeah, I'm interested to see if that jumps back down again, the movement's probably not going to be too, too much, right. We're at two and a half, meaning we're, we're kind of bumped against the three. We're not going to see the three, if anything, to Clark's point, I think it's going to, you'll see some buyback, maybe some pro jets steam a little bit here closer to the game time. So yeah, again, another one that I don't have a great lean on either currently, but

that one, I cannot wait to watch. Is it bad that, is it, is it bad that I think that both teams like offenses, like path to least resistance will be like just running the ball kind of a little bit more. Like, I mean, I think that both of them could actually do reasonable on the ground. And like, I mean, maybe they're set, like both secondaries are just awesome and like very well equipped to handle like a passive attack. So like, I don't think that that's like the way that they should approach this game. Now, whether they actually do that remains to be seen, but I don't know, like, like a

lot of like more running out of the shotgun for the bills usually utilizing james cook could really counteract a lot of what the jets can do and yeah i think that that could work out really well for them if that's what they do and then pass the ball because like you said like stefan diggs is not enough like gabe davis deontay hardy i think he's going to start three wide receiver sets this year dalton kinkade in the 11 and a half like i'm just not sure it's enough uh right at this point well i think it's an interesting wrinkle right because you talked about the struggles last year again the bills on both sides of the ball kind of lined up and said this is what we do they didn't have they don't do a ton of free snap wrinkles defensively i think that's probably why we have no more leslie

frazier and shaman germans taking over because they basically said here's what we're going to do and oftentimes that works especially early in the season when they were healthy, but they only had, they only ran 12 personnel, 8% of the time. It was the second fewest snaps in the league with two tight ends. They're more equipped to do that. They're more equipped pre snap to be able to let you dictate what you're going to do personnel wise. You know, Damien Harris can be a guy that they can maybe rely on a little bit more between the tackles to, to do some of that tough stuff that maybe you single Terry couldn't do.

And maybe if you're not going to run or you didn't bring in, and maybe you have, you know, you know, something strong set wise, they can put Kincaid out in the slot and do something, give you that 11 and a half look. So it allows, I think maybe the personnel allows them to be more multiple than in years past. So I'm excited to see what those wrinkles look like and how the team's adjusted to it too. Because I think they've evolved too based off of knowing

that we can't really just line up and think we're going to beat you, especially as the season went on, they had injuries, they didn't really make a change. And that's kind of why we saw, especially defensively, some really poor late down performance, things I think are going to regress this year year which is part of why i'm bullish on them uh getting back and being really where we thought they were coming into last season so

yeah uh that is our favorite five um i'd love to get your thoughts to kind of just toss it around here i know connor and i both have a handful of team totals that we like uh that wanted to toss off of each other i'm interested to see how many that we have are overlapping because we have not discussed those. I think I have six unders and two overs, which I think we used to maybe a little bit of like, I'd love to get your thoughts too off the top of just week one. Are we, should we be leaning under?

And I know we don't want to paint with a broad brush in any situation, Clark. We definitely see like, we want to cheer for points anyway people want to cheer for points early in the season because like hey we miss football i want to see good things happen um we have had a little bit of a tendency of leaning under in terms of totals over the last couple years it's that small sample variance is that something that you buy into it all um the things being equal would you lean one way or the other is it all matchup dependent or the other? Is it all matchup dependent? No, not really.

It's matchup dependent. There's some macro things that change each year that I think really, really good bettors, sort of macro minded bettors are able to capture. I don't have anything like that. You know, I think the offenses are still adjusting to those defenses to take away the big plays by kind of beefing up and creating optionality in the short game that can slow the game down and lead to lower scoring, but I think that's kind of being

captured in the totals at this point because that was something we learned last year. So in general, I'm not really looking back one side or the other, but I only have one official totals play, and it's that over 39.5, but that's also just a statement of the number of games that go over 39.5 is a high percentage of of like you know the number of games that go over 39 and a half is a

high percentage of NFL games um and and the number of games that land 40 is pretty high I think it's like three percent or something so the the fact that that total got under 39 or under 40 I think is is significant um I wouldn't have been playing the over at anything 40 or above so all right Connor what's uh what's a week one look that we didn't talk about that you wanted to uh bounce off of us i'm gonna rattle off like a couple here and we'll just get going with like half of them uh so okay i don't actually rams team total under 20 i don't know if that's 20 and a half i doubt that exists anymore if it still exists definitely worth a look in my mind cooper cup just announced out while we're doing this stream potentially placed on ir uh i think

the big deal here with the Seattle Seahawks, everyone's talking about, oh, well, they're not going to have Devin Witherspoon. They're not going to have Jamal Adams. They didn't have either of those guys last year. They were still middle of the road in EPA per play. They were still decent in pressure rate. Their run defense sucked, but, like, I mean, that's not really an impact on that.

So, you know, I think that they're probably still going to be a solid defensive unit against Matt Scherber, uh uh bram's offense that will not have cooper cup will be starting puka i don't know how to pronounce his last name tutu atwell and uh van jefferson along with tyler higby behind a bad offensive line so for me that's an easy under uh colts under 19 and a half i know you're gonna hate that one but um based on everything that i've heard you know i it just seems like they're gonna run basically a neolithic offense just gonna be like caveman out there um and maybe it works but uh you know i have my doubts here in week one for them to score 20 plus i think that should be closer to 17 and a half cardinals team total under 14 and a

half i mean this is a joke what's the bottom there where where are we like oh it's really hard to like it's an nfl football team uh 14 and a half i mean yeah this is josh dobbs i think the commander's defense is good too like i wouldn't play that against an average defense like i think the commander's defense is like legit good and then you have a terrible offensive line you have i mean hollywood brown's interesting weapon james connor's wash like there's just no positive factors outside of like a josh dobbs outlier performance for me or a pick six or kick return or something like that for them to score.

Six is what scares me a little bit, to be honest. That would be a terrible way to lose, but honestly. Yeah. All right. A few that I, I, I kind of agree with. Well, I'm on the opposite side of a couple. I did note that the Rams, not the opposite side specifically, but within the game, Rams, I had Rams under 20 and a half,

which was available just before we went on. I, again, don't know if that's still out there, which I think is interesting. Also had the Cardinals 14 and a half. I think the Jags over 25 and a half is interesting. It's one of the only two overs that I like. Again, right side of some key numbers even more so than whatever you think about anthony richardson i disagree with

probably a little bit but i don't think any of us disagree with the colts defense being a problem they don't really have much pass rush to speak of um they're dealing with some concussions with shaq leonard uh ej speed at linebacker I really don't know how they're going to really cause a lot of havoc for the Jags here. You know, again, in a dome and they should have some success there. I like that one quite a bit. And a few unders. So I like the under, maybe I should just take the game under because I like both the Raiders and Broncos team totals.

Broncos under 24 and a half, Raiders under 19 and a half. So that one being under 44, I just don't see, I don't have a lot of optimism in either of those offenses to start. I think the defenses, especially on the Denver side, maybe like the Raiders under 19 and a half a little bit more than even the Broncos, which again, now you're telling me Russ has to score like four or five times or lead four or five like scoring drives. I don't feel super optimistic against any defense in that scenario. So I kind of lean under there.

Giants under 21 and a half is interesting to me on the, with that being a key number. You know, I think there's some 21s, some 20s. 21 and a half I feel pretty good about, to be honest. Like really bullish on Dallas' defense this year. You know, we like what we saw with Brian Dayball, but also, like, just really hard to just continue to dink and dunk down the field, not push the ball down the field.

I don't feel like, you know, Hyatt comes in in week one and takes the top off of this defense to really, like, allow them to do a ton underneath. Darren Waller like yeah I think he helps the offense overall but is he way different in terms of where he wins versus the other guys on that roster not really so you know taking a stand in that divisional game I kind of like under 21 and a half there too and under 19 and a half on the tight end side is something that I think I want to play as well I just think that the Saints are gonna be able to

get pressure it's the worst offensive line in the Saints are going to be able to get pressure. It's the worst offensive line in the league. Tana Hill's pressure to sacrate spiked massively last year, and I think there's something to that, that I think he just is a little less likely to stand in the pocket, take it in the chin, step up, and make a play, and doesn't really trust his guys. I think Derrick Henry maybe stumbles in that game too,

so I kind of like the 19.5. I wish it was a little bit higher. But getting the right side of that point on 17, I think is kind of a lean for me. So yeah, team total is not intentional leaning under, but it just happens to be where most of the plays are. Clark, any initial reaction off the top of some of the ones that Connor and I spit out there? Yeah, I like the Giants under.

I played the Cowboys money line. It's one of the few lines that hasn't actually moved for me, but anywhere between minus 162 and minus 170, I think is playable for the Cowboys. Daniel Jones just really struggled against good defenses last year. I mean, he didn't play that many and his end of season numbers look pretty good, but you got to look at who he played against. So I do think that a slow, I mean, maybe not even slow, maybe they're going to, you know, Brian Dayball might try and, you know, use pace, but they use a lot of third downs and fourth downs. You know, these are long drives that reduce the number of possessions in the game and the Cowboys are the same way. Like they can really sustain drives against, against the Giants, uh, kind of weak defense in my opinion. So this isn't a game that I think is going to be

shootout. And it's not a game that I think the Giants can have much success early. So my biggest worry would be a backdoor. I remember last year on Thanksgiving, I had Cowboys minus eight and a half, I think it was, and the Giants scored a touchdown with no time left to lose by seven. It was ridiculous. But so I worry a little bit about that when you're playing team total unders on a team that might get blown out. It's like there is that backdoor potential, but overall I like it.

No strong feelings on the others. Really. That's fair. Newton real quick before we hop off here, cornerbacks for the Colts starters. I think we're expecting right now, Daryl Baker, Jr.

And Dallas flowers day D a L L I S not a S Dallas flowers. I mean, you know anything about these guys? Like, I mean, these are a bunch of jabronis out there, right? Yeah. I mean, Juju Brents has not really been – he's been dealing with injuries all – and again, a rookie, a second-round pick who they were expecting a lot out of.

And he struggled to stay healthy. Same thing, Kenny Moore. Even when they had those guys in the projected lineup, it's like it might be the worst cornerback room in the league or one of them definitely in the team pitcher so yeah i mean there's there's going to be some room for the jags to operate again on top of that it's the lack of pressure um so like yeah divorce buckner can win there's some questions obviously early in the season without cam robinson along the offensive line for jacksonville but like they just i don't really trust anything that like the colts have in

terms of consistent pass rush so you know obviously those two things are a marriage in terms of pass rush and quarterback play and it's just kind of a mess in indy so you know any anti-indy stuff for me is really defense related i get it i mean i don't i'm not bullish on week one anthony regerson coming in and setting the world on fire. I think he, you know, talks and runs a bunch. So it'd be interesting to see if we can get a decent carry number on him

when that opens up. But yeah, I mean, I'm not a kid. Is it Shaq Leonard in concussion protocol or something? He's in concussion protocol. Yeah. Yeah.

It has been for like a week and a half. Not great. Yeah. No need to rush him back. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, not a lot of optimism for Indy there. And Connor's smiling because he's got worst team in the league tickets,

I believe, that he's pretty excited about. Yeah, I mean, it's just going to be a year where they figure things out. It's going to be a slow year, and they're going to get the shit kicked out of them defensively. And then Anthony Richardson is going to run the ball until they can't run the ball anymore, and then throw the ball to try and catch up and figure it out. Like it's going to be a slow year and they're going to get the shit kicked out of them defensively. And then Anthony Richardson, you're going to run the ball until they can't run the ball anymore and then throw the ball to try and catch up and figure it out. I think Clark series spot on to, uh, in, in private chat, talking about, uh, bringing another Marvin Harrison, uh, to Indy. I could be a, that was Drew Dinsic on the deep dive pod. I heard that from, yeah.

Tank for Marvin Harrison. And you got that whole narrative going. Well, it makes some sense. So, all right. Good stuff. Week one in the books. Again, remember 444.com slash plans. Get the betting sub.

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