Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 10 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: November 6, 2024

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 10! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 10 betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move line presented by draft king sportsbook brian noonan joined here as always week 10 some sides and totals some other stuff going on around the national football league joined by my friend conor allen what's going on buddy yeah not a whole lot um still alive after after the election night uh had to go through my twitter feed and basically mark every political thing as do not not interested anymore because my for you feed is just an absolute disaster right now uh i want none of that i want all sports back in my life but overall season's going well up 20 units this season uh coming off another strong week so um you know happy to be here how much time do you

spend in the for you feed is that like your default or do you occasionally like go over there and check it out yeah i actually kind of i kind of like the for you feed now because my following feed uh picks up everything and i didn't like i don't realize how much i really don't like a lot of people that i'm following until i'm in the following feed. Because there's a lot of – some guy will retweet seven things that appears on my feed for a couple of scrolls. I'm like, all right, get this guy out of here. I don't care about your fourth retweet of whatever you're doing. Yeah, I don't know. It's getting better.

I think the For You feed, I mean, again, it just picks up on what you're interested in. And at the time, I was interested in politics. So, yeah. Yeah, it's interesting yeah i mean it used to be such a big no-no to actually like retweet your own things oh yeah um and now it's just like common day you know like especially in the content space like it's you know it's almost like you should like you should probably be doing it there's a time where it's like look at you you thought what you said was so great that everyone needed to see it twice. Like, you know, conversation for another day.

Easy to get lost in off topic today. Excited for our guest today here for week 10. We are bringing on one of our guys in-house, our guy who has just decided to, you know, like our boy previously, Sharp Clark run headfirst into the sharpest markets out there, sides and totals in the NFL side. It is our guy Hunter house on Twitter at H L Huss 22.

What's going on, buddy? Oh, what's going on, man. We got some snow out here in Colorado doing the four for four thing. Now that's definitely been an adjustment on my end. It takes a lot of getting used to.

I know in order to set things up initially, I've been doing kind of the same base model for a few years now. And I went through and I have individual player grades on everyone, and they matter to a spread in a certain way. But going through and doing the four for four thing, like I haven't actually had to go through and review like why each player matters in a couple of years now. I just know like I can plug a player in, do injury updates, put in my player grade, boom, it spits out a number. So doing the four for four thing's been an adjustment because it takes, I mean, credit to you guys for all the content you do put out it takes me over an hour to do each bet each write

up and just sending it out versus you know in the past where i could just you know 10 words in a tweet and it's out there for the world to see so we joked about it last week too um you know like i was you know we have a chat where all of us internally are talking about bets and bouncing thoughts off of each other and um you know probably no one's more bombarded in terms of like their actual schedule than you since you're betting props uh less than the rest of us um but i'm sure there's some interesting learnings or some impactful things that can be in there i made the joke that i like i just wanted to bet jameer gibbs over 63 and a half rushing yards last week the joke that I just wanted to bet Jameer Gibbs over 63.5

rushing yards last week, and my reasoning that I wanted to put was just, it's too low. And I know that you appreciated that too because what we do, if people don't know, on the 4-4 side in our Discord, when we put out a play, we go into detail onto why

we're making that play. So it's a little bit of like teach a subscriber to fish sort of situation where we don't want to just blanket, just toss out a play. And I know that there are other reputable companies out there that do that. It's literally like, here's the play with no reasoning behind it. No one really available to answer why that was the play and teach their own. Those are successful services and whatever works for the subscriber at the end of the day, right? Like if people continue to subscribe to that service, then it works. We feel there's value in being accountable to the pick and to help people understand why we land there. But sometimes

it does take a long time. We're just like, I want to jam out this play, but now I need to write multiple paragraphs. Connor's shaking his head because it's been part of our process i think it's still really valuable maybe a little bit harder for uh someone like hunter in their first year but uh anything to add to that connor i mean content is tough so that's uh not surprising uh and conveying your thoughts in a manner that is easy to comprehend, but like still makes sense. And is like, you know, I, sometimes I, I literally release my writeup, read it over again for the third time and be like, well, that doesn't even make sense. And so I like rewrite it like, well, I like, you know, after I released it and I'm just like, okay, now it finally like is a little bit

more, um, complete, but just, it's definitely been a work in progress. And, um, you know, for, for us, like for me over the last, like what, four or five years as we started this. And it's something that definitely gets easier. Now I rip through some of these. And our write-ups are a little bit shorter than yours because you're breaking down an entire 11v11 matchup on both sides of the ball. And I'm usually just breaking down a single player in a couple instances. So definitely you have your hands a little bit more full than we do.

Yeah. And it's like every week I find something different that I didn't think about the time before, like still working through. I tried to initially, like, you know, I'm a night owl. So I could send stuff out at 11 p.m. my time, which, you know, screws over the East Coasters because it'd be one o'clock on a random weekday. So I'm trying really hard to not do anything late at night, which has been kind of an adjustment just for me and how I or when I put stuff together. And then so like so I went to Denver.

I live in Colorado Springs. I went to Denver just over the weekend, but had to drive back to my place in the morning, get home and find out that the Bears had, you know, Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker and Montez Swett all out last week. And like, boom, there's there's an easy Cardinals team total over. Didn't have enough time to, you know, spend the hour writing it up. So it's a, it's a, might have to do some like shorter Sunday morning write-ups in order to get some of those out anymore. Yeah. And you can also always, you know, pump it out and just be like, hey, write-up coming soon.

Yeah. I've turned to doing that a little bit uh but like connor said sometimes uh you just get to a certain part of it um where my number says something and i'm trying to like go make the story match the number uh and it's like wait that quite that didn't quite make sense i gotta spend another little while figuring out why yeah it's a trickier process uh before we keep going here just want to remind folks at the top to subscribe. Wherever you're listening, you can find us, obviously, every week. Two shows, a move of the line.

This is the Wednesday, more sides and totals. Friday, Prop Drop Show, 3 p.m. Eastern. 4 for 4 bets on the YouTube channel. Move of the line wherever you listen to podcasts. If you want all the things that we do here at 4 for 4, access to the Discord that we're talking about, access to all the contents and the plays that we're describing here you want to get the betting subscription uh super cheap right now lots of different ways to get um even cheaper deals through partners our rebet partner deal

is fantastic use promo code four for four bets uh and you can buy ten dollars of rebet cash rebet is a sweepstakes app if you're not familiar with sweepstakes apps you better get used to them they are i think going to be more and more prevalent here. Essentially sports books with a loophole. Prop builders, different stuff, lots of different ways for you to get down. Check that out. Download that app. Use promo code 444BET.

Buy $10 of re-bet cash. You get access to everything that we do for the rest of the year for free, which is a great deal. So you can come back on Friday for the props. So Hunter, tell us a little bit about how things have changed, obviously, but give us a little bit of insight into your process there. I know you're talking about giving player grades, but basically kind of how you've evolved in your time handicapping, how long you've been handicapping.

Just kind of give us a little bit of a peek behind the curtain here uh yeah no problem so i started doing this a few years ago i think i initially made my model five years ago uh but wasn't tweeting anything then i was just kind of going through and uh you know credit to eric eager way back when he worked for pff even i was putting out some incredible articles at that time of just like why certain players matter to a team and how. And I kind of went through and was just adjusting along with the market lines of, hey, I need to get to roughly to X number on a given week

in order to make my player grading make sense on a full scale instead of just doing like a, you know, a pass rush number, a run stop number, kind of quarterback OC number. So I got that kind of down pat fairly well. And then I started tweeting things out. Since then, it's just been mostly minor adjustments on, you know, figuring out what matters to a team. Should, you know, quarterbacks throwing into certain coverage rates matter more than others? Something that doesn't necessarily get captured by like a standard ELO model, or at least I haven't figured out how to do it by standard ELO model. So just writing that kind of into, you know, your money

line price, win percent for each team. But on like a week to week basis, kind of start out, you know, Sunday night, running backs don't matter. That website puts out their quarterback updates. And that's, I mean, quarterback, if you can nail what a quarterback's going to do in any given week, you likely have a pretty solid handicap on that game in itself. So they put out their stuff, but it usually doesn't update until 11 p.m. my time.

So none of that really gets fed into a bet on my end. So Sunday night is just kind of those bets where I know a team is not going to either change in a lot. So for this week, kind of one of the things we'll talk about is the Eagles last week, I was very high on them going into the Jacksonville game, I'm going to be pretty high on them again, coming into the Dallas game this week. So something like that will just kind of get put out on a Sunday or Monday night. And then a lot of PFF grades updates the day after the game

so I can kind of go through then, do all my player grade updates individually. And I don't take just like the player grade that pff has is not necessarily the number I'm entering um but that kind of all happens Monday Tuesday uh if it's something like this week where I just got busy on Monday couldn't get to it um and then it's just from there kind of updating with entry statuses through uh Wednesday and Thursday, mostly on Thursday. But yeah, and then kind of just writing bets when I can at this point. Yeah, a labor of love. That is an intense process.

But hey, the results over the last handful of years speak for themselves. Been a great addition to the team. And I know Connor and I speak for Connor comfortably here that we've enjoyed having you. So i think the subscribers have as well so uh again check out all hunter's work here on the site um all right some nfl news obviously yesterday um was a massively impactful day um we will have repercussions felt in the days and months ahead. Obviously, I'm talking about the NFL trade deadline. So, Connor, what are your thoughts on takeaways?

I think obviously some of the bigger deals that happened across the league and leading up to it were weeks previous, where we had obviously some high-profile wide receivers at switch teams with Devontae Adams, Amari Cooper, DeHop. But then there was some action a little bit yesterday as well. Any takeaways here from the trade deadline? Yeah, I think one that's not necessarily important on a team basis, but I thought was interesting was the Steelers adding Mike Williams. Just because, like if you, well, first off,

he's been my cardio King for this whole season. I bet his unders, I think at least two or three times, um, just because he's out there and just never gets targeted. But I think he's actually a great fit for like what Russell Wilson and his skillset does. Like it's like these long, you know, high deep balls that like give their receivers a chance, like making tests to catches.

I think that's just a great fit for, for what he does. So if you can get back on track, maybe, you know, draw a little bit of coverage away from George Pickens. He's going to have a couple of big games there. And then from a team perspective, I thought the Cowboys trading for Jonathan Mingo,

uh, trading a fourth round paper, Jonathan Mingo. I mean, yeah, hundreds laughing. I mean, that's one of the worst trades I've seen in a while.

Uh, I mean, Jonathan Mingo was a second-round pick two years ago. He'd done virtually nothing on the field, was getting outperformed by an undrafted free agent out of Holy Cross. He wasn't good when he played. There was nothing to say that he's good, and they traded a fourth-round pick for him.

I don't know what else to add besides, I don't know what Jerry started drinking early or what was going on there but this is i mean it was crazy to me all right john domingo has one of the best incompletions that should have been completions of all time oh yeah i don't even know how that was physically possible for him to like not stay in bounds on that catch uh last year which is absolutely wild but uh huddle what are your takeaways of the trade that might? Back to the Mingo? Yeah, I have one Mingo play that sticks in my mind. It's exactly that.

Just had to jump seven yards to take that thing out of bounds. I don't know. So I kind of did do a little bit of a tier list for wide receivers that did get traded. So Hopkins, Cooper, Adams, Deontay Johnson, Mike Williams, and then Mingo. There's a williams and then you know mingo there's a big gap and then mingo um but uh i did kind of have i have hopkins as my wide receiver one that's going to make the most difference uh especially to the chiefs uh having a wide receiver one just

opens up so much more for them especially you know they have patrick mohomes um but that makes enough of a difference between like amari cooper like they have khalil shakir uh can be a wide receiver one i know he kind of works out of the slot and isn't like a prototypical wide receiver one build uh but he is good in that role um and then you know davante adams kind of same thing you have garrett wilson uh yeah garrett wilson on the team already uh you kind of already have an established wide receiver one there um and also are we sure jets are making the playoffs this year uh i don't know but they got their guy uh deontay johnson is kind of like a a tier maybe two tiers even below that um and just that he you know he got traded to the ravens is gonna play kind of like a tier, maybe two tiers even below that. And just that he, you know,

he got traded to the Ravens is going to play kind of third fiddle. They, they run 11 personal at the lowest rate in the league. So you've essentially got a bonafide, you know, backup in that, but they give up nothing to the Panthers. I know. Yeah. With the Mingo trade Panthers kind of got a steal in that sense but um shout out dr eager again yeah exactly i did send him a message after that happened just said congrats uh and then mike williams i had a little bit of a different take uh i don't know if you think he's gonna have uh be your cardio king anymore um just kind of oft injured guy uh you kind of already have your contested catch phenom uh george pickens um so we'll see how that works out i just i don't

know if i love that uh as much i would love to get like uh some receptions unders on him um i mean depends on yards too i mean we'll see but like i don't know like if you ever give me like a two and a half reception number of mike williams that's like an auto bet under no matter the matchup um one and a half obviously is a little bit trickier but we'll see i mean we'll see what happens i thought the dionte thing that you brought up was interesting because i kind of assume that he's going to just play over shod bateman um at some point but i don't think that you're i don't think that you you think that is that true you think he's going to just play over shot Bateman at some point, but I don't think that you're, I don't think that you, you think that, is that true?

You think he's going to play behind Bateman or I know they're different obviously, but like, I think Bateman just sucks. Like, I don't know. He just, he might just suck,

but he's kind of been good this year when, when Lamar Jackson can extend the play, like Rashad Bateman's the dude, you know, 25 yards downfield. that's wide open somehow. So Deontay will be a much better receiver just like in an actual like scheme up this play for your guy Deontay. I think he's going to be much better in that sense. I just don't know if he, yeah, I don't know how that's going to work out down the road. I don't know if he's going to see the field for, you know, 70 snaps a game or if, uh, they're going to kind of

split time. Um, it'll be interesting. Yeah, definitely interested to see that rotation that and, uh, the Keaton Mitchell, justice Hill, Derek Henry rotation upcoming to on the team there. Cause I think they'll probably use Keaton a little bit. Um, I'm assuming that'll lead into justice Hill, but they seem to really like justice Hill too. So use Keaton a little bit. I'm assuming that'll lead into Justice Hill, but they seem to really like Justice Hill too. So I don't know. Well, I'm excited to see kind of how that team shakes out there. Sorry, a little tangent on the Ravens,

but definitely sparked in the Chris Ferrer. Thursday night game. We're topical right now. I thought the Marshawn Lattimore deal was interesting twofold, right? It's kind of the commander saying we're trying here a little bit right that secondary is pretty poor um you know they were basically punted at this time last year right they traded uh chase young and uh montez sweat and this year they kind of you know jumped back into the fray which i think is was interesting and then obviously we have the every year how can the saints keep getting away

with this the salary cap's not real situation where they just have all this dead money that rolls over and it seems like maybe they're willing to reset maybe a little bit here um and change some stuff i'll be interested to see if that continues but at some point this franchise has to stop and go okay um the pool of what we can actually spend every year is shrinking at a certain point we need to get out from under this cap hell because the salary cap is real there are loopholes where you can find ways to get out from under it uh year over year but you keep these things compound on the states have been kind of kicking the can down the road for five years now now you have a roster that's you have cluster injuries you see how thin it is and all of a

sudden it's like, well, we can't be competitive with this type of roster construction. So I'm interested to see what happens with both sides, obviously losing seven in a row, firing your coach. We didn't talk about that market last week, Connor, the first coach fired in the Futures, but we probably should have. Yeah, well, I think someone had already gotten fired, right? It was – who got? Someone got fired first.

Dennis Allen. Well, Sala and then Dennis Allen. Sala, yeah. Sala, Dennis Allen. Somehow Doug Peterson is still going. Still kicking. Don't understand that at all. Then there was a note today.

I don't know if you saw this about Iberflues, how they're reporting where they're speculating that he actually signed a multi-year deal and not like a deal that goes through the end of next year it was like the one that goes through 2026 which would mean that they might keep him or yeah i mean the mccaskies are cheap like they are they're one of the poorest owners of nfl teams in the league which is obviously all relative they're obviously stupid rich anyways but like, this is like their main source of income. And so they don't own like, you know, oil companies or Walmart or anything like that. They're just owned Chicago bears, which obviously still makes plenty of money, but they, I doubt that they're going to do,

you know, like something like the Raiders done where they have like four coaches on their payroll for the next six years. Um, anyway, so I don't know, just something to keep in mind. I mean, it might, I mean, I think a decision or not, and just like dealing with this sunk cost could potentially alter Caleb's career in a negative way. Keeping Ibraflux on board for multiple years would be, in my opinion, disastrous. I know it's a lot more pressure on the office of coordinator, but having some help from head coach is pretty helpful, I think. I was going to ask you, if you could only get rid of one today, are you getting rid of Iberflues or Shane Waldron?

Oh, Waldron. I mean, not Waldron. But I think a guy like Ben Johnson isn't going to take the offensive coordinator position with the Bears under Iberflues. He's going to take the head coaching job. You know what I mean? To attract talent, you can't just like – otherwise you're elevating.

Like, basically, they're taking like a b enemy or someone that's like been under someone big that like just needs a new office coordinator or you need a passing game coordinator or like some other kid who's just like gonna get a chance but i mean you're just taking a much bigger risk instead of being able to attract talent like a again like a ben johnson or someone new that's lincoln yeah i don't know i mean someone fun like i don't know yeah something someone not named jane waldron i don't know if we need to talk about the berries this week i don't know we can get into other games first but we need to talk about the berries because this is a i mean straight up disaster so we can even great at the end i can just run through

and do a lean on each side too if if we have time at the end love it need it uh we went long last week connor on the futures market no one needs uh more extended thoughts from connor and i on the futures market this week yeah connor basically got down on anything eagles related um did you have a favorite future on the boards or anything that's caught your eye um as we kind of approach here the next back half of the season so what's funny is i did listen to that episode but i listened to it earlier today so i had up until about two hours ago just some eagle stuff lined up i do want to mention one of them though still uh cooper dejean um he's only been playing for what four four five weeks now uh but he's been an absolute stud like they put him on jamar chase one on one

on a fourth and one to end the game and like yeah he he covered it and i think he's outshining even quinian mitchell uh who has better odds than him for defensive rookie of the year uh overall i would say jared versus you know rightfully number one there um but he doesn't have the counting stats the sacks necessary um for me to just like run away with it at this point. I know he's getting pressures at an absurd rate. I think he's like fifth overall in the league at this point. But I think there's at least a window open to where Dajin can kind of sneak in. But because you guys did do a lot of Eagle stuff, uh, last week, uh, I was looking at coach of the year, um, for this week and I have some disagreements in who the top six are.

Uh, so mainly, you know, Kevin Connell, uh, plus 900 sixth in the voting now are sixth in odds now. Um, Dan Quinn, probably rightfully number one. I don't think anyone thought the commanders would be doing what they were doing today. Sean Payton with the Denver Broncos, I think they have holes in their game. Again, I can see kind of why his odds are so low at the point. I just don't see that continuing through the end of the year. Dan Campbell, Andy Reid, in my opinion, both have to basically go undefeated from this point on. I think Andy Reid, especially 16-1, maybe voters are just looking elsewhere because the Chiefs are expected to be good. Now he's dealt with a lot of injuries, but I'm not quite there on Reed. Tomlin with the Pittsburgh Steelers, he has looked incredible. I mean, I say this is season-long better for Pittsburgh Steelers under,

thinking that they wouldn't make it to 500 for the first time in his entire tenure, really. But they have such a difficult schedule coming up ahead of them. I mean, they still, there's still in division with the Bengals Ravens. Um, I think they have like top four hardest schedules, uh, to end the season. Number two, uh, by unpredictable. Uh, so I, I think this is kind of where if you can sell the Steelers, um, that was your time.

Uh, so I got Kevin O'Connell. I think he will likely be your five seed in the playoffs. I don't think there's a chance that they take on the Lions at this point. But I only see them as under a three-point favorite three more times through the end of the year by my number i know one of them comes in week 17 uh against the lions themselves uh but i just think they have the horses now to kind of compete with that and if you're gonna stop uh the lions at this point you need to have a good run defense i know they kind of got trucked through towards the end

of the game uh when they played a couple weeks ago. But Minnesota is still number one in defensive rush EPA per game. And I think they have the horses now with Hawkinson coming back to just kind of keep them in that contest. So Kevin O'Connell, kind of plus 900. I think he can do it. Yeah. Probably a good price. Like you said, you know, we try to live through that Connor a little bit and just top of the

board made sense, right? Those are all teams that maybe had, you know, been exceeding expectations at that point. Yeah. The market's pretty loaded. I mean, since we talked about some long shots and we did talk about the Eagles, I got to mention that if Nick Sirianni wasn't such a dick 80 to one would be an awesome price. Cause they're going to win like a bunch of games coming up.

But I, I mean, it's not quite to the extent of Deshaun Watson of no one would vote for him for MVP, even if he was amazing because obviously he didn't do quite the same things as Deshaun Watson did, but I don't think he's very well liked. So I don't think that he would pick up very many votes again.

Like they would have to literally win every single game the rest of the season, which I think is in play, but not something I really want to bet on. Further down the board, if for some reason you do think that the Jets make a run, Jeff Ulbrich at 100-1 is not crazy if you think they make a run. We got on deck Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Dolphins,

Jags, Rams, Bills, and then Dolphins. I mean, they just lost to the Patriots they look like absolute trash for most of the season but again like this is it's 100 to 1 like you know it's like do they win eight out of those nine games at 100 to 1 or whatever the look whatever amount they have left like I don't know don't think it's the craziest thing in the world uh make a run we know that these these awards are so recency biased. So literally, I mean, Joe Flacco, I don't even think he made his first start yet last season. I mean, it was right around now, right? Literally, this is like... So I would just say,

if anyone betting the market here, we got some questions on our Discord about betting Dan Quinn at two to one. He's obviously the favorite for a reason. They're crushing um but i'm not betting that right now i just think that there's other better ways to play it and i'm still going to keep sprinkling long shots and i think the kevin o'connell look that uh hunter brought up was great too especially if um the vikings were able to win the division if possible so i don't know a couple interesting looks i think outside of uh dan quinn yeah i like that call it's it's it makes sense a little further down the board relative to some of the other guys at the top. Probably shouldn't be a seven-point difference, basically, between O'Connell and Dan Quinn. impactful in some of these metrics and how we kind of get into breaking down some of these games. We'll do our best as of now. Philly on the road in Dallas, what typically is a marquee matchup

anytime these two teams meet up. Right now, looking at Philly, basically seven, seven and a half out there. It's bounced around a little bit, a little bit of resistance at seven and a half. Total down at 42. Also some 42 and a half out in the marketplace also shop around if you have lean our friends here at fandle are seven flat and 42 flat here um hunter there's really no meaningful metric i guess you would say that would lead you to believe that the cowboys don't have maybe a bottom three or four defense in the league. They've obviously suffered cluster injuries along the defensive line. That's impacted that a ton, obviously. And now we have kind of a one-dimensional offense that doesn't really have its dimension anymore without Dak Prescott here. Kind of a tough one here. A lot of that obviously

baked into the market, but what are your thoughts on Philly and Dallas? Uh, so yeah, I said coming in, I'm pretty high on Philly. Um, Joey tunes pushed that I think to a seven. Um, I disagree with that entirely. Uh, I think a lot of this is though, um, actually I'm very down on the Dallas offense. I know, you know, no Dak Prescott, uheeDee Lamb playing this week through his injured shoulder. I know he did last week. He hurt it again at the end of the game.

Is he going to be effective if he takes a hit? Is he down again? All bad things for them. But I have Dallas' offense with the o-line struggles that they've had uh they have no one that can separate outside cd lamb um so if he's not 100 that's kind of that kind of is your offense at this point uh they had generated their first uh explosive run of the season just last week uh so ifM is my 27th offense. That's lower than

an unpredictable market rating by margin. I think when I looked earlier, they were like 16th. So I'm nowhere near that. I looked into a Eagles minus seven, which I'll probably write up, as well as a Dallas Cowboys

team total under. Right now it's 16 and a half plus 100 at a few spots. I might wait on that one. See if I can get a 17, 17 and a half would be better. But if it stays 16 and a half, we get, we get not great news on CD. I'll probably push out an under on that one do a write-up to follow shortly after i love a good under 17 and a half team total just you know it's warm and cozy in the fall just a nice little you know like it on a sunday it feels so good

i was on a under 13 and a half not too long ago when bryce young came back on the panthers so love that yeah that takes some stones for sure uh i mean it's the worst red zone offense in the league i think or one of the worst third down offense in the league too it's been bad uh connor why are we gonna get kuba rush we know what kuba rush is give me some trey lance let's let's see let's let him cook a little bit um doesn't seem like that's going to happen. What are your thoughts on your Super Bowl champs in Dallas this week? No, I'm pretty sure that Trey Lance also stinks. But yeah, you're right. We don't know. It's the mystery box, you know, except the opposite of the boat.

It's like, you know, would you rather have the turd or the mystery box? It could be the turd, you know? So we'll see. We talked about before the season the fragility of the dallas cowboys offense not necessarily dak prescott but as it relates to cd lamb because their offensive line is good but not great their receiving core is wildly thin outside of cd lamb it's basically jake ferguson jaylen tolbert's played a little better and then just a bunch of jabronis i mean terrible johannes and mingo yep yeah. He'll be catching balls out of bounds that

shouldn't be out of bounds. They, I mean, they have no semblance of a running game. Rico Dotto is, I mean, very much just one of the most average running backs in the league. And he's been, he was like their spark plug last week. So with Cooper Russian, I really struggled to see how this is going to work. I mean, this Eagles defense out of the buy has played his number one in EPA. Like they're like literally, I think they're actually first in run and pass EPA out of the buy. Now they've played bad teams, but they're playing really well. And I think that kind of coincides with, again, like Cooper DG and Quinnian Mitchell playing a little bit more that they're changing things. Like there's, there's actual logical reasons behind that defensively. And then offensively,

uh, AJ Brown practice today. So it looks like he's probably going to play this week and their running game is just, I mean, stellar. Like, I don't think that they're going to even need to throw, which is a bad sign of playing. It's the Eagles. Like the way to beat the Eagles and Jalen hurts is like, you probably stopped the run, get some pressure on Jalen hurts. Um, you know, D up AJ Brown, advanced Smith, hope you don't get bad. And you'll probably, you know, kind of hold them close. The Dallas has like the personnel to do basically none of that outside of

maybe generate pressure. If Micah Parsons plays like, that's like the only option there, but if they're running the ball, which Dallas has run, even has been terrible. Like I think it's pretty much over. So I like Philly year minus seven a lot.

I just, again, on both sides of the ball here, my handicap significantly points me towards philly here yeah i wouldn't even say the offensive line is good i mean i you know um terrence steel it's been terrible um tyler guyton awful on the other so you're both your tackles are giving up a ton of pressures and like this is not but 2022 eagles pass rush still pretty good though um josh sweats bryce h, like they have bodies that they mix in.

Jalen Carter's really starting to emerge too. So I think they just make whoever's back there their day really hard. But I just don't see them sustaining drives and being on the field very much too. That's kind of the problem too. And then obviously anytime you have a situation where it's really clear that the team has to be forced in the past heavy situations is really easy for, especially edge rushers to not have to worry about, do I have to contain and hold the edge, set the edge here,

or can I just pin my ears back and go after the quarterback? When you're in a trailing game script down 14 or whatever early, then, you know, that gets really hard. You have to play with one hand tie behind your back. So hard not to be bullish on the Eagles here. Interesting that it met some resistance at 7.5, but we need to see if we get any more movement here depending on injury reports.

Like Connor said, the A.J. Brown injury news is only more positive things for the Eagles. All right, next one. Detroit on the road in Houston. Detroit 3.5 across the board. 49 to 49.5 is the total out here. Obviously, the availability of Nico Collins looms large over the handicap here. And also Joe Mixon, Connor.

I mean, you know, Mixon's been an integral part of this offense all season long. He's been explosive a lot, like, which is is weird it's not really his mo the last couple years in cincinnati 100 plus rushing yards and four straight games since returning to the lineup has not been how teams have beat or had success moving the football against detroit um what are your thoughts let you get started on handicapping this one yeah no it's this is an interesting one because i think a lot of it depends on Nico will Anderson. I mean, the birds are chirping that neither of them are going to play despite Nico being healthy, which I think is kind of an interesting, interesting move here specifically, but I

kind of like the lions here. I mean, as partially a reason to that, I mean, we've seen CJ Stroud now without Stefan digs without Nico Collins, like tank Dell hasn't really played all that well all season. And then you're trying out guys like Xavier Hutchinson, John Mechie, um, you know, guys again, who like our wide receiver fives and most offenses. So, um, when those are your other pass catchers here, uh, against the lions team, that's played better in some ways. Like, uh, I think, you know, the loss of Hutchinson, we were pretty worried about, I think initially. And while that obviously matters, if they're not able to get pressure, they've kind of been combating that by changing up their scheming a little bit, which I, you know, you can touch on a little bit more, but I think that that that's, that's, you know, matters.

Like they didn't just sit back and do the same thing that they were doing, which, you know, a plenty of teams do. They kind of adjusted, uh, blitzed more and played more man, I believe, uh, if that's correct. So yeah. Yeah. yeah yeah like i think their offense i don't know if the lion's office is gonna have incredible success but i think that it's enough to cover or like to play and cover the gap here at three and a half um obviously would love a three i mean we're seeing three and a half minus 105 at fanduel so and it was at three at one point so it's possible again especially with some positive nico news but i don't know i'm curious to hear uh hundred of your thoughts on anything. I'm kind of with you on the side. I am with you on the side.

I'm actually kind of, this is one of my most far off lines to date. And the Lions favor, I do have Niko is not going to be a hundred percent and I kind of only have a 50% there right now. But yeah, even with him in, I do think they're going to struggle, especially because Nico plays a lot of downfield type play, and the Lions have Kirby Joseph, Brian Branch back there, who have been actually elite by PFF standards elite. I think they're probably at the top of their market rating at this point.

But yeah, I think the key to essentially shutting down the Lions is stopping the run. Kind of going back to the Kevin O'Connell, the only team that's been remotely even close was the Vikings to having a shot at really shutting that down. I don't think the Texans are going to do that, especially if Will Anderson can't go this week they've kind of had a banged up lineberry linebacker core I just think the Lions can have Jared Goff do the bare minimum and still be fine in this matchup yeah go ahead Goff loves to work over the middle of fields and there's still cluster injuries in the interior of this Texans defense too, which I don't think will be there all season long,

but in terms of where Goff can cook, linebacker rooms beat up, still some injuries at safety, backups there as well. So I'm interested to see how that injury report kind of plays itself out too. Look, the Lions, Connor highlighted it, they're scheming it up differently in terms of how they're trying to generate pressure. I think the Zedaria Smith acquisition was a nice one, bringing it back into the division. There's some revenge in the division.

He played for the Packers, played for the Vikings. I don't think he liked how either of those situations ended. Got himself cooking a little bit the last couple weeks in Cleveland. So I think that's a nice one. Elam McNeil has been playing awesome football in the interior of the Detroit line as well. And that's really where you get pressure against CJ Stroud. It's taken a ton of pressure this year.

It's almost all off of the right guard. Kenyon Green has been awful. He's now on IR, I think. So Kenyon Green's backup, I think his last name is Green as well. It's not, not great. But I think they're going to still be able to find ways to generate pressure blitz straight up the face at cj stroud in this matchup and probably makes it for a long day especially without nico so bullish on them long term but until they're healthy it's trouble what do you think about this total i feel like 49 and a half is pretty rich um i mean i don't know just like especially if we don't think nico's gonna play there was like some weird i mean the report that came out today was like hey he's healthy but still wondering if

he's gonna be activated and i was like well if he's healthy then like what what are we doing here so all the hamstring tests but probably isn't gonna practice yeah so i don't know what that means um but it seemed like to me that that last sentence was a pretty big asterisk on his playing status for this week. And again, like we've seen this Texans offense, you know, not really play particularly well without some of their big without some of the receivers here. So I don't know. Well, I think the 49 half is pretty rich again because I think the Lions be fine, but I'm not expecting like a boom week necessarily from them here. I don't see them putting like 30, 35 plus on the Texas.

I mean, it's possible. Obviously it's the lines, but that's the problem. They like, they were like 40 plays and they scored, you know, 45 points.

Like what happened? They were just so incredibly efficient. You know, that's, you're probably the right though. It's definitely under or nothing. Like I wouldn't have, I wouldn't want to be chasing necessarily a game total over here but um they're just they're scary it's probably a scary bet yeah it's a don't watch it's a better down to

47 maybe even low if uh nico actually is inactive it's probably going to be below 47 even um but even with him active at 80 um 47 is probably the number that this closes towards that was the sunday night one i skipped a earlier matchup that we have going on here pittsburgh and the commanders we touched on some of these uh obviously in the quick coach of the year discussion there briefly um interesting price right now because we have some two and a halves and we have some threes. The Commander's favorite here at home. Total on the right side of, you know, depending on where your lean is here,

45 and a half basically across the market here. Hunter, I'll let you get started with Steelers Commanders. So I think this is an interesting game to handicap uh overall i think you have to take a look at what russell wilson's done in two weeks and make a whole year to date on him because i don't think if you take 2022 and 2023 either one of those uh you're you're just not going to be betting on the steelers in this spot um I'm kind of somewhere in the middle. He's done some nice things. I think Tomlin's actually given him, or the Steelers are actually giving him a scheme that he can play well in. I just don't know if I'm fully sold on Russell Wilson, but even with like a

half to 2024 rating, I'm still short on this, so I kind of wanted to just talk about this one out loud with you guys, and that the commanders have taken some money here early in the week, pushed it out to three. I have it as minus two on the Steelers, with just kind of half rating, or half of 2024 Russell Wilson there.

So I'm curious what you guys think about the side. And then I do show a little bit of value to the over here. And going halfway there, it looks like the market hasn't done that yet. So I do think 45.5 is probably a little low here, as both teams, I think, can move the ball, especially on the commander side uh they can kind of mitigate what the stealers are going to do on the defensive front um i know jayden daniels is great at avoiding the rush this year so far in 2024 um he's looked good cliff when they do throw are throwing you know screen passes short passes underneath

underneath stuff um i think that'll ultimately be effective uh against the steelers pass rush because outside the front four there um i don't i think they're a little bit overrated in the back end i agree with that what do you got connor your thoughts? Yeah, I go back and forth because this, I mean, we saw the commanders face like their toughest defense, which is the Bears, and they moved the ball well. They just never punched anything in. I would say the Steelers are significantly closer to the Bears than any other defense that the commanders have played,

basically, this season for the most part. So I think that they're going to have milder know, like my older success offensively Steelers offense. I think it depends on what commander's defense we're going to get here. They played a couple of games really well. I don't know if they are good or even average, but they've been playing a little bit better. Again, their season long metrics look really bad.

They're like 25th and 26th and success rate rushing and drop back success rate. So I like, look really bad they're like 25th and 26th and success rate rushing and drop back success rate so i like it's one of those games where i hate betting on the sealers because it's something that just never feels sustainable offensively or defensively and somehow it always is for 20 years you know again like it's just one of those things that um i have really gotten a good read on um but i don't yeah like i just don't know i don't know do you have it you have a good take here on this game because it's to me that just feels like it wouldn't surprise me either way. Kind of with you too on the Steelers handicap,

like we were down on them. It's hard to move off the priors of the season. It's a short sample, which I understand why Hunter's having problems with how to kind of capture what we've seen from Russ. You want to kind of block out. There's no way you get to anything Steelers wise. If you were bringing in anything from the last couple of years, commanders less than three is of interest to me.

I would say I've been really impressed with Jane Daniels. I think Hunter called it out too. That was kind of his MO in college too. Like just took a ton of sacks and people were worried about him, like staying upright. And he's been awesome this year. There's like pressure to sacrate is like one of the best in the league his mobility has shown up there i think it's actually been a problem because when they play teams that actually have the ability to collapse the pocket he scrambles uh at a really really high clip he has no problem just tucking

and running and that's led to some like massive gains on the ground for him anytime he faces teams that get a high rate of pressure so with Highsmith and Watt off the edge I think we could see a nice rushing output from Jane Daniels in the spot too so commanders less than three I agree with with the back end of the Steelers being probably closer to the middle of the pack. I think they obviously get a massive boost when they have Highsmith and they have TJ Watt cooking up front. It makes things a lot easier. Cam Hayward's playing some really good football. They've been able to rush linebackers well and do all sorts of stuff like that.

But in terms of just matching up one-on-one, I don't think it's a unit that we should be scared about. So I would take the Commanders less than three at home. Nice. I hope that helps Hunter. I make a minus two. I would look at the over. I think it will probably close 46 and a half.

Probably shaded up a little bit, but that's kind of what I'm looking at in this one. Yeah. It'll be an interesting one. It's one of the better ones in the early slate to watch for sure um the monday night game has miami on the road against the rams rams are uh basically a point favorite across the board total uh out there two at 50 50 and a half depending on your book uh you know draft kings yeah has both those numbers there interesting matchup um you

know miami it's really hard to take any of their season-long stuff because obviously a lot of that's tied into some you know other quarterbacks non-tua quarterbacks a lot of those metrics do not serve the dolphins favorably um interesting here the rams again similar to what we just kind of talked about on the stealer side here uh connor um rams the back half pretty suspect um but they've been generating a ton of pressure which has kind of been able to hide that tua just is allergic to holding the ball more than three seconds that ball comes out so fast it's the design of the offense it's a skill of his um something that obviously was you know massively missed when he was out of the lineup um so i don't know how the rams combat that but it'll be interesting to see here dolphins rams what are your thoughts yeah i kind of think it's an interesting like by low spot on miami in

a sense um it feels like the rams are getting a lot of respect after the last couple weeks which is fair i mean they've played played better but one three straight yeah like yeah they're playing well and they're obviously capable of beating anyone. But the Dolphins were just basically a stone cold zero offensively for six weeks or whatever, five weeks out. Tua comes back in, and he's just able to execute the timing and the precision that they need to get the ball out. Devin Achan's obviously playing better. It's just like, to me, Tua isn't even necessarily a difference-making quarterback.

It's just that the level that he was playing at and the office is playing out with him in compared to Skylar Thompson, Snoop, uh, was just, I, one of the biggest that you can see, like, it's literally one of the biggest gaps that I've seen in a while. So I like, again, I want to be buying into this dolphins team a little bit there in that sense. I'm standing, there's still plenty of questions about the defense, uh, which again leads us to why we have a 50.5 point total. But if you want me to pick a side here, I'm going with Miami because I do think that they can put plenty of points here on this Rams defense here.

Nice. Hunter, where are you at here? Yeah, I think I'm going to make it a clean sweep for Miami. I loved what you said, Noonan, about Tuig just getting the ball out quick, and that's kind of the way to beat the Rams right now. Their back end is still not good. I think I had them the 31st secondary by my ratings. If you can get the ball out quick, you're going to have a good day against them. We saw that against Geno last week.

If the Seahawks weren't shooting themselves in the foot that entire game, I mean, they win that in the landslide. They just had no issues moving the ball once they got going. It took a bunch of, you know, Gino had, what, two snaps over his head, some red zone turnovers. It just was a very unclean performance by Seattle in general. But I think you're going to get a lot of that same kind of look out of Miami. But hopefully, you know, minus the turnovers and then just the poor play on some of the easy stuff. And I think this is the, yeah, with the

buy low spot, they played against Buffalo last week. Still looked good and Buffalo is a much better defense than what the Rams are going to put out on the field. Kind of the same thing. The front line can get pressure pretty quick, but they mitigated that. We're in the game until the very end. I think this is finally the week they put it all together. I make it Rams plus 1.7. Okay. um i make it rams plus 1.7 okay yeah so uh they the rams early season offensive line issues were pretty massive right they had cluster injuries and they were just giving up a ton of pressure um they're going to be without rob haverstein for this game joe no boom's been out for the last couple weeks i don't know if he's back yet but there's a chance here they're without both

offensive tackles again which did not go well early in the season when they were without uh both offensive tackles so um again we think about the rams here the team uh really lives and dies on pressure could be a spot for the dolphins to really get a ton of pressure i i thought i thought chop robinson was going to be like just a shorts and t-shirt all-star, right? Just this, you know, insane tester, the combine, who, you know, doesn't have a lot of anything. Watch, watch Chop Robinson last week against the Bills. It was sexy. He was, that was a good matchup against a good offensive line, right?

Like that, you know, Dawkins left tackle for the bills, like all pro Josh Allen does not take sacks. I could shop. Got him was in the backfield all day. You could get home here against the Rams here and they could not, they could Zach Seeler probably coming back to you for the rant for the dolphins. So it could be a spot where the dolphins actually get a ton of pressure

instead of the Rams. So I'm with you guys on the Dolphins. We can get like a one and a half, something like that. That might make a nice little teaser leg. You can get them up through the three, out through the eight, or through the seven. That'd be pretty nice. This was going to be my first write-up of the day this morning

because last night when we were putting the teams together, I was looking at a plus 122. It's now plus 100. I would still take it. Congrats to whoever beat me to that one, but still a good look in my opinion. Connor, you wanted to touch on the Bears here. Bears hosting Drake May and the New England Patriots,

six, six and a half. DraftKings minus six with a total 39, minus 108 on both of those. Pretty good numbers there. Yeah, I mean, obviously, it's not been great. We're talking about the coaching stuff. Also, another place that you might have some cluster offensive tackle injuries on the Bears side where that's starting to be impactful too. Darnell Wright, MCL sprain, probably out. some other injuries on the other side of the ball too.

So I don't know what's going on with Jaquan Brisker. Guys get, they need Brisker and Gordon guys get a concussion and they're like almost back the next week and then they come back. Like this is like week five for Brisker. Like, I mean, that's just, that's just scary as a human being. What's going on with him that he can't come back from? I don't think there's like a series of concussions here. He just got his bell rung.

Obviously pretty bad if he can't clear concussion protocol over a month later. They miss him in the back half. Connor, what are your thoughts on Pat's Bears? Yeah, I'm actually going to be in attendance at this game. So it should be not a fun one. I, I, the weather should be decent though. You should be all right. Is it? The weather will be good. I mean be decent, though. You should be all right. Is it?

The weather will be good? Yeah, you'll be all right. As long as it's above like 40 degrees. I mean, anything in November above actually even 30, I think, is honestly fine. I just think there's so many problems with this Bears team right now. I think they could rely on their defense being good for the first chunk of the season and then keep them in games. I don't know if that's the case necessarily anymore, given all the injuries. And so that's a problem. The other

problem I have is with their offensive line. Um, so Caleb has been one of the most pressure dependent quarterbacks in the league so far. And when he gets, when he's pressured, he is awful. Like just in terms of completion rate, yards per attempt, making the right decisions. It just hasn't been good when he's clean. He's been pretty good. He's been able to, again, extend plays longer than he needs to, but still just make the right decision and be genuinely better. The issue that we had was Arizona coming into last week was the second worst team in pressure in the league. And they generated pressure on over 40% of their snaps. Now they get New England, who again, is also bad at pressure rate, but that didn't matter. Like they, anytime that Arizona basically brought five, the bears didn't have an answer. It's

similar to what we saw in the Houston game where Houston would rush five against the bears, five offensive linemen. And the bears would combat that with empty sets sometimes, which is wild or, uh, just Deandre Swift back there, pass blocking, which is just not enough. Like your, your offensive line is not going to win one-on-ones like most of the time you need, you need extra tight ends or you need something else in the backfield. Um, quick, easy completions in case the pressure does get home. None of that is in play for Caleb right now. And so it just led to a series of disasters. So, um, I'm, I'm worried about this offense, even in a matchup that is not particularly daunting,

just like permanently worried. Like that's like, and as someone who was like pretty optimist about the Bears throughout the season and the heading into the season, like I'm very concerned that they have not figured out a way to like get the ball quick and mitigate offensive line issues.

Basically their only way to doing that has been by running the ball. And so, and that's it like that. They don't really haven't had much else. DJ more. I mean, rumors of him not liking Caleb Williams walked off the field mid play, um, clearly attitude problems slash, you know, other underlying issues there between them. Uh, I mean, they need to clean house.

They need to fire everyone. Um, it's like, I mean, this is like this, this should have happened already. And it's, it's, it's, it's very apparent to me, but they're not going to do that because they're the McCaskies and because of the bears. So we'll see. Pat's Pat's plus six. It sounds like here. I'm going to be at a bears game but yeah go for it Hunter sorry no you're good as it stands

I have I make it three and a half so I would be on pads here but I will say I will caveat that with I do have Montez Sweat not playing and Brisker also not playing I have Kyler Gordon in right now I think Sweat actually does go. I probably need to update that.

And I mean, he makes a difference. Him and then that secondary group together can stop almost anything. I don't know why those matter as much as they do for the Bears, but yeah, their on-off splits when Sweat's playing is something else. as much as they do for the bears. Um, but they, yeah, they're on off splits. Um, when sweats playing is, is something else. Uh, you can go back to even the beginning of last year, weeks one through six, I think they look like one of the worst defenses, um, all time really. And then they got their secondary back, they traded for sweat and they've been a top 10 defense,

uh, since that point. Um, so I'm not going to do anything with it until, until I get some better practice updates or injury updates on sweat. I did kind of look into an over here at 39 and a half is the last number I wrote down. However, it does look like it's going to rain on you, Connor, 80% chance of rain, 16 and a half mile an hour winds. Oh, it does look like it's going to rain on you, Connor, 80% chance of rain, 16.5 mile an hour winds.

Oh, that's nothing. 16 is fine. That's okay. Yeah, I'm not worried about that part quite yet, but I wonder if the rain just makes these two teams kind of turn to the run more, on which the Patriots are better equipped to do so. And they're roughly, I think they're two teams apart in their defensive rush EPA per play.

So if it turns out to be a downpour, that's maybe one later in the week that I would actually be on the Pats for. Last note, Drake May, I think is pretty good. I think he's pretty good, yeah. I'm legit excited again about the pats i mean good i never want to be excited about the pats they have like a shell of a team around him and he's still like oh it's so bad his touchdown pass to put that in overtime was uh right up there with

the saquon barkley uh play. That was just incredible. Yeah. Mobile, making plays, you know, out of structure, outside the pocket, his legs and his arm. He's young. I'm excited about it. You know, again, throwing to absolute, you know, XFL receivers, which is, you know, not super fair, but behind a, you know, backup CFL offensive line it's uh it's not it's not great but still if you do it in this it's it's encouraging to build up build on for

sure so hunter you're the man appreciate you finding uh time to join us and you're a busy guy appreciate a little bit of insight into the process um remind folks like you have a promo code right do you have a promo code yeah it's just hus h-u-s-s um i think i pinned it to the top of my twitter profile if i didn't i'll go do that right after this yeah get a four four sub get in there uh get all the hunters plays and get all the stuff that connor and i are doing as well uh again take advantage of our our deal with rebet download the rebet app. Use promo code 444BET. Buy $10 in Rebet cash and get the rest of the year for free.

Great deal. If you have any questions, reach out to us directly. We'll help you with that. Come back on Friday. Connor, myself, John Hyslop for Move the Line Prop Drop Show. Week 10. It's November. Yeah, things are going on.

We need a million dollar win this week coming up. We're going to get that done here on Friday. Come back for that. For Hunter and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks, everybody.