Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 10 NFL Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions | 49ers, Lions & More!

Episode Date: November 8, 2023

Get ready for NFL Week 10 with our expert betting guide! Immerse yourself in our in-depth analysis, featuring top picks, the latest odds, and precise game predictions for teams like the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions. From hot trends to the best bets with the highest return potential, our guide is your go-to source for making informed Week 10 NFL betting picks. Stay ahead of the game with our detailed breakdown of odds from leading sportsbooks and pinpoint predictions based on rigorous research and player performance evaluations. Bet smart and enjoy the thrill of NFL betting with confidence, knowing you've got the ULTIMATE guide backing your plays.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here, as always, by my friends to talk about sides and totals in the best matchups here on the Week 10 NFL Slate. Connor Allen, Sharp Clark. Connor, start with you. What's going on, buddy? Not a whole lot. Coming off of probably my worst week of the season, actually, which was kind of disappointing. But Austin Eckler had me just, oh my God, you know, Austin Eckler had me, you know, just, oh my God, three drops, zero all season. You know, two multiple called back by penalties. So definitely some tilting moments, but all in all, not bad. Ready to hop back at it.

And, you know, already got a play for Thursday. So, you know, can't complain. Absolutely brutal. I thought it was a great play. And I know a lot of subscribers did as well we're in it and i saw a lot of people like in the industry and people either had like receptions or yards and you fell short basically of everything but yeah just uh i think a really smart play that you fell short and that's what happens in this game sometimes is you know have really strong

handicaps and sometimes uh it doesn't always go the way that you want it to it happens at times uh mark oh go ahead what do you got i was. It happens at times. Mark, go ahead. What do you got? I was going to say, I don't believe in mushing, but I felt mushed because there was like a thousand people on it. And I was like, man, this is a super square play, but I really like this. And then I see all these like, you know, goons on Twitter tweeting it out.

I'm like, oh, this is mush. This does not feel right. Lo and behold, you know. I think it's John Ewing. It used to be like Action Network. I think he did stuff for MGM and he had like, I was going to gonna send it to you but i didn't want to make you feel bad before the game started it was like 98 of the bets uh you know the money is on you know a variation of eckler receiving and i was like oh no it's never a good sign uh but again good process uh just did not work uh clark how we doing today good yeah I found a new way to lose a bet this week with the Texans minus two and a

half with the score to go ahead and win by three, but then not kick the extra point because the kicker's injured win by two. So that was, that was a brutal one, but yeah, doing good. I'm much more prepared for this show than I was last week because last week there was 16 games to process and watch the film for so uh this week I've been able to watch all of them I'm ready to go and ready for for week 10 yeah I had an extra point thing in my notes here I didn't want to rub salt in the wound we're going to talk about the the Texans here but yeah what a brutal brutal way to

uh to losing a bet uh yeah tough tough, tough one for sure. You know, sometimes it's just not your week when that's what you get in the early slate. And you're like, I don't even want to watch what's going to happen in the afternoon if that's going to happen to me in the early slate. So we're moving on.

Week 10, double digits. Crazy how fast this goes. I know it's a grind and we get like lost in just the cadence of the week. And like, it just, it gets crazy. And all of a sudden, like, here we are. And we're in almost the middle of November. And, you know, again, like, you know, they just, the cadence of the week and like, it just, it gets crazy. And all of a sudden, like, here we are. And, uh, we're in almost the middle of November. And, uh, you know, again, like, you know, some of us and people would hate to hear this because it's ridiculous. And Connor

and I talk about it. I hate it. Um, we're so lucky that we get to do this for, for, for a living, uh, and spend time doing this and people like bemoan the grind of content and stuff. And yeah, like you get to talk and write and do things, you know, in the NFL, which is just wild to me. And I know it goes by, to me, it goes by fast. Like I want to hold on to these opportunities to make money because I feel like, you know, when it's gone, like I'm thirsting for it in February.

Like I'm not even like enjoying when it ends. It's like, I want it back right away. But again, week 10 of the regular season, that means we have about another 10, 12 weeks of actual football betting because we have playoffs and stuff like that too. So three of us here live every Wednesday, 4 p.m. Eastern on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. You should be able to find the podcast in your feed on Wednesday evening.

Subscribe to both so you don't miss a show. This is free content. Subscribing, likes, thumbs up, all those things in the comments on Wednesday evening, subscribe to both so you don't miss a show. This is free content, subscribing, likes, thumbs up, all those things in comments in the video, they go a long way in helping us, allowing us to bring you some of the best tools and content in the industry here at 444. Take a second, click a button. We appreciate it. Don't forget there is also a second show every week on Fridays, Connor, myself, John Hyslop from Odds Jam. That is Move the Line Prop Drop Show. Again, 3 p.m. Eastern on Fridays if you want myself, John Hyslop from Odds Jam. That is Move the Line Prop Drop Show. Again, 3 p.m. Eastern on Fridays if you want to get into the player prop streets with us. We talk all the time here, and this is my job to essentially somewhat sell you on the fact that,

hey, you should probably spend some money with us, right? This is free content, but we do have a subscription at 444 that allows you to get access to all the actual picks that we make, along with everything else that we do, including betting on the nba but if you're playing dfs you're still grinding your season-long league on the football side like all that we do at four for four is encapsulated with the betting subscription we've already discounted it because we're in week 10 uh it's already 50 off we now have a promo code bets 50 b-e-E-T-S 5-0 gets you an additional 50% off over an already 50% off sub. It's $62 right now to get a betting subscription at 444 through the end of the football season. It actually takes you through the end of February.

So it gets you basically through the all-star break in the NBA. I wish we could do it differently. It's just kind of how our system works. But you can, you know, we'll have advantages, deals for you to take advantage to get in, to get early for next year. But again, $62 to basically bet with us for the next four months. And you get lots of other stuff too. Check it out. 444.com slash plans bets 50 for a $62 sub. Again, it's $250 for the year. We're down to $62 again. We are, you know, it's a truncated season, but again, still a lot of time, almost four months for that subscription to really have value for you.

Check it out, 444.com slash plants. All right. We don't have kind of like the four ultra games that we had last week, but I think we have a good mix of games and impactful games here.'s you know as we get to this point where now we have to start talking about like playoff implications divisions you know futures some of that stuff is there anything on the board connor for you right now uh that you're looking at i know you played an in-season future not like to make the playoffs but you know fading a team um i really liked your your edge there you want to share that with folks i don't know if it's still bettable, but what's your process looking like in terms of looking at futures as we get

into this part of the season? Yeah, I'm always open to looking at other futures markets, but I have to feel, I think, extra good about it because I think we're in the in-season grind. I don't know, I feel like the churn of money, I think, can just be made easier if I'm making more in-season plays than a future. But that being said, if I think that there's like extra expected value on something, I'm more than open to playing it. So I played the New York Giants have the worst record. This is plus 320 at FanDuel. I think it was still plus 280 as of this morning. I'd probably play this on like plus 275, maybe even lower because we're looking at them and being in contention right now with Arizona, Carolina, Chicago, and New England. And we have the Giants now officially

starting Tommy DeVito, who's, I think the worst quarterback in the league, you know, by a pretty wide margin at this point, the Cardinals getting back Kyler Murray, he's going to start this week, the Bears, not going to just fails back this week, but the week after. And then Carolina has a couple of winnable, I mean, you know, quote, winnable games. Like there are games where there'll be close underdogs, you know? And so I think that's pretty important there. And this giant team, Darren Waller on IR offensive line, you know, I have a Neil injured again. Uh, you know, Tommy DeVito already talked about it. 16 point underdogs in Dallas this week. So I don't know. I thought that they should be like basically favorites or tied for favorites

here because this in my mind is a pretty close race, especially with the giants here. Even though Brian Dable was great last year. I'm just, I think it's time to be fully out and i know clark has been big on fitting the giants or at least was in the futures market before the season yeah yeah clark's got a nice i think you got an alt under wind total or something there it's probably sitting nice how about you clark in terms of looking at futures or you know anything else that's caught your eye or anything that maybe you're looking at to see in terms of how this week shakes out yeah i've been looking at futures markets just kind of you know scanning shakes out? Yeah, I've been looking at futures markets, just kind of scanning them. I think I spend so much of my time on the weekly NFL spreads and totals bets,

but that's such a difficult market. Whereas in-season futures are lower limits and they're more varied prices from book to book, which is just a softer market to play. So when I see my numbers, I look at my numbers week to week and I look at how I'm projecting this week's matchups and next week's matchups. And if I see a team that has potential material change in expectations upcoming based on how I project their play,

then sometimes I can find value in that in the futures market. Last week, I posted on Twitter about the Saints division was plus 145, which I thought was mispriced. And now everything went my way last week. And now I think it's minus 200 on Circa. So that was, that was a pretty good week.

This week. I like the Browns to miss the playoffs. You can get it at plus 150 at Caesars plus 140 Circa and, and Fandu, I think has plus 140 as well. You know, the AFC playoff race is going to be real tight. You know,

there's a chance that one of the top six teams kind of, you know, fails, like whether it's injury or just, you know, underperforming. But I think Miami and Buffalo, Cincinnati and Baltimore, and then the winner, you know, the Chiefs and the Jags, winner of those divisions, I think all six of those teams are fairly likely to make it. I'm probably higher on the bills than I think most people are. But that seventh spot is going to be a dogfight. And the Browns have a relatively easier schedule than some of the teams in their division. But I think that's overplaying how bad this team can be. Like Deshaun Watson, I've been anti-Deshaun Watson on this show throughout the offseason. And I finally think the price is there to kind of fade him because people think that, okay, he's healthy.

They can be better now. But Deshaun Watson is not a good quarterback. They've lost two offensive linemen. Their defense has been keeping them afloat against bad defenses. We're going to get into this when we talk about the Ravens-Browns matchup. But this is a very susceptible team to a big drop-off if they suffer a couple of injuries on defense. And I'm not sure that their offense is good enough to win some of these games.

They're going to be priced close to pick them down the stretch. So this is a team that I think should be a lot closer to plus 100 to plus 150. So I think there's some value on Browns to miss the playoffs. Good transition. We'll jump in. That's our first game here this week. And I think impactful one in terms of how the AFC North shakes out a little bit. Cleveland is in Baltimore.

This was Baltimore minus four and a half briefly on Sunday night. Got bet out quickly to five and a half and then out to six on Monday morning. It has held their totals dropped a little bit too from 40. We get down to 37 and a half. It jumps back up here in the last little bit. There are some 38s on the board, 38 and a half on FanDuel here. Second meeting of the season. First one, I don't think we really should even talk about it.

It was the Dorian Thompson-Robinson starts. Ravens picked him off three times second four times I think just really impossible to draw anything in terms of what happened there you know obviously the short fields given to the Ravens offense impact the Browns there so it wasn't even like oh hey they hung 28 on the Browns defense it's like that's not really how that actually happened if you were to watch that game. So Baltimore seven and two winners of four straight sitting atop this division where as of now everyone in the, in the division would make the playoffs, which is absolutely wild.

And I don't think any of us really think that. I mean, Clark obviously just bet against the Browns. I don't think he's on the Steelers either. We're not going to talk about them today, but I mean, two dominant performances, Detroit,

Seattle are good football teams and the Ravens absolutely boat raced both of those squads on the season through nine games. They've allowed nine touchdowns. It's fantastic. I mean, I pointed out, I still think it's subpar talent defensively. It's kind of wild. I mean, look, Kyle Van Nooy was, like, doing spots on the Pat McAfee show, like, in, like, week three.

And the dude is, like, impactful in terms of what they're doing from an edge rush standpoint. Jadavion Clowney is getting it done. It's like, it's Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith and just a bunch of guys, especially in the court, like in the edges, like where they,

you know, outside in the, in the cornerbacks and stuff like, I don't know. It's, it's incredible. Marlon Humphries has been in and out of the lineup. They've had a ton of injuries.

It's been awesome. Clark, I'll let you keep rolling with this one here. Uh, Baltimore minus six. Yeah. So the, the, the Browns and Ravens defenses have both been obviously top of the league. Their, their statistical metrics are fantastic, but I, I think the Ravens defense is better than the Browns defense. And I think that's based on recent play and who they've played, who they've done it against. If you look at the Browns in the last five weeks, you know, they absolutely smothered the Cardinals with Clayton to net quarterback. Fair enough.

But when they played Seattle, they weren't that great on defense. Seattle led the game winning drive, you know, for a touchdown to win, put up, I think, 24 points. When I played the Colts, their defense wasn't great against, you know, garden and Minshew, who has been kind of up and down, you know, during, during this year outside of that game. San Francisco, they played well, but, you know, they suffered so many in-game injuries, the Niners did, and then there was bad weather. There was a lot of penalties that led to a lot of, you know, first and 20s and stuff that kind of impacted them. And then Baltimore, they didn't really play that well on defense against Baltimore.

Granted, the game was one way, but Lamar Jackson did what he needed to do, led a couple of long touchdown drives in the first half and the game was over. Whereas the Ravens, their defensive performances have come against the Lions and the Seahawks in two of the past three weeks, and they've absolutely smothered both of those teams. Those are very good offenses. So when I'm comparing these two defenses and the way they've been playing recently, I think the Ravens are actually better. And what I love about their pass rush is they don't have, you know, one stud player that is just like, you know, every 10 plays making such an incredible move that the quarterback has no chance to get away. It's, it's a group of guys meeting at the quarterback consistently. And when

you have that group pressure, it's really, really tough for the offense to do anything about it. So I think here, Deshaun Watson, who I'm very low on, and I don't think is a very good quarterback, hasn't shown anything in his entire time in Cleveland. He is slow to process. The offensive line is beat up on both sides. I think this is a spot where the Ravens defense will just smother the Browns offense.

They don't have a run game to offset it. And I think that's going to give the Ravens a lot of offensive possessions. This is one of my favorite ways to play a game is when I project, you know, a complete domination on defense on one side, and then a good matchup on the other side is the Browns defense will win some matchups. The Ravens offense will win some matchups, but because of the number of possessions they'll get based on how many times they stop the Browns offense, I expect the Ravens to eventually score enough points to cover even a big spread like six. So I like the Ravens here at home. I think they're in a different class than the Browns. And I think this is where they should. Yeah. The interesting thing too, because you look

at all the metrics, all the key metrics you touched on. I mean, basically these two are top two in the league and everything. The one edge is Baltimore's red zone defense. It's been significantly better than Cleveland's Ravens best in the league. Just seven of their 21 red zone trips against them have resulted in a touchdown. Now Cleveland's only allowed 18 trips to the red zone against them, but like converting at a pretty high rate, they're 29th in red zone defense. Now again, smaller sample, only 18 red zone appearances, like I said, but that's, I think a difference maker. You can talk about if that's a sticky stat or if that's something, you know, you can take into consideration who those offenses are, but to your point,

like the Browns haven't really done it against the elite teams that we think in comparison to what the Ravens have done. So Connor floor is yours. Clark was right. Like you and I kind of like we struggled in the off season doing our AFC North pod. We were like, Clark is just kind of dumping on deshaun watson having never been a good quarterback you know we push back on that i still would say that i don't think is necessarily true it's hard to argue right now right like and i think clark

made a good point earlier of the perception of the browns now that we're out of kind of the backup era hey they're getting healthy they're getting right but all of a sudden like they lose jedrick wills uh like this is a um an interesting interesting game and i think you know the ravens are are kind of the right side i get why the lines move where it's gone yeah he's played one good game this season against the titans but i think everyone's played a good game against the titans you know and a lot except for basically joe burrow in that fluke game in my opinion so yeah i don't really have much disagreement here i think my angle would be a little bit different i think that i would like the under on the game.

I think that everything basically you said applies. I guess my only lean would be more towards the under instead of taking the side here. Just because, I mean, Lamar averaged close to 10 yards per attempt, but I think Noonan, you brought up a good point. DTR had three interceptions. A lot of the scoring, the final score was, I think, turnover- you know turnover fueled so i think if you go into this game here specifically like we're probably not going to get that i would assume because even though deshaun's you know not very good he's at

least throwing the ball into the dirt or way over the receivers and not in the other team's hands so it's like you know i think it's a little bit different here so yeah i probably lean towards the under i don't have much more to add beyond that because you guys did a great job of fleshing out both sides for i don't think there's many schematic advantages that either offense has either to be honest that they're really worth digging into yeah that's fair here what's the uh browns yeah well team total you can find uh 16 and a half out there again you know doesn't really matter 14 and a half 15 and a half at that point when you're on that side of 17 it doesn't matter matter too, too much, but yeah, that's game under. I can get

behind too, but yeah, I think that's probably a pretty good look. I wish I would've got the four and a half. I would've jumped on the four and a half that came out pretty quickly and was gone within an hour or two there on a, on Sunday night. All right, next San Francisco on the road in Jacksonville, this open San Fran, two and a half, got out to San Fran minus three. Some buyback on the Jag side, back down to two and a half. And then we've seen now more money stabilize the Niners here at three, minus 110 pretty much across the board. Totals are out there in a number of different totals, basically.

45 and a half up to 46 and a half, all readily available in domestic. So shop around if you have a specific lean there, both clubs coming off of week nine by. Niners certainly limped into theirs. They look like world beaters after just absolutely curb stomping the Cowboys there on Sunday night back in week five. And when you do that against a national team

on a Sunday night game, like we had Brock Purdy, the favorite basically for MVP all of a sudden. Since then, losers of three straight. Started basically when they lost both Debo Samuel and Trent Williams. That's going to happen. Those are pretty impactful players. And that matchup that kind of went wonky with the Browns.

And, you know, a couple, again, I think poorly timed turnovers for Brock Purdy. I don't think it's anything, to me at least, that's really problematic, Connor. Both players, though, trending pretty well. Coming out of the bye, we should have them both here. What's your thoughts here on Niners, Jacks? There's been some interesting line movement in the last 30 minutes. This total has gone from 46.5 to now an even 45. And for me, I like the over at that point at 45,

and I was already leaning there at 46.5 because two reasons here specifically. So we have this Niners defense. Last two games, 8.4 yards per attempt kurt cousin 378 yards and then joe burrow 283 yards and three touchdowns on 8.84 yards per attempt san francisco only pressured those two quarterbacks and 36 of the dropbacks which is middle of the road uh you know after all season 41 pressure rate they added chase young obviously that's going to make an impact but trevor lawrence so far only been pressured on 29 of his dropbacks fourth lowest rate in the league. And when he has been pressured, he hasn't been very good, but when he is not under pressure, including 74% of his

passes, 101 passer rating. So I think that that on the Jaguar side is encouraging because that was my biggest question before digging into it. It was like, can the Jags align, hold up? Can Trevor Lawrence have enough time to really exploit, you know, the nine year secondary that hasn't really played all that well lately. But then we have on the other side too, here, you made a great point. It's like Trent Williams coming back, uh, you know, Debo Samuel coming back. Like everyone seems to be at least fully healthy. Now at this point here, Brock Purdy splits under pressure are, are pretty significant here because there's Jags defense 25th and pressure rate pretty is connected on 30 of 39 passes. Even the last two games when he hasn't been playing well for 11

yards per attempt. And then on the season, 78% completion rate, 10.4 yards per attempt when not under pressure. So, I mean, again, if they're able to keep them clean and I think they're going to go past every year, because this is a little bit of a spot where the Jags like to load the box. And I don't think that they're going to blindly run into those. Like I think that they're going to see probably some heavier sets and then use that to their advantage with play action and get the tight ends involved and like, you know, uh, you know, play action, now you can stuff there. So I like the over, um, now that being said, it becomes a little bit fragile if they decide, oh, we're going to go run heavy right into Jacksonville's loaded box. Or if, you know,

Jacksonville can't keep San Francisco out of their backfield. Like that's could obviously massively, massively deter the, the total year, but I'm confident enough that both teams are able to score to get over this total of 45. Yeah. Good thoughts there. Clark, where are you at in this one? Yeah, I see that. My metrics have been pretty low on the 49ers defense compared to what I expected coming into the season.

They've just not been performing at the level that you would expect. I mean, they have the talent, they have the players, you know, like these guys are studs up and down this defense, but it's not been happening on the field. And so my numbers, you know, I always anticipate who I'm going to like in a game based on, you know, like I'll publish my power ratings on Twitter, and then I'll get a bunch of pushback. And wherever that pushback is, it know, like I'll publish my, my power ratings on, on Twitter, and then I'll get a bunch of pushback and wherever that pushback is, it's typically like, oh, that's probably a team I want to bet on. I got a lot of pushback for ranking the Niners number one in my rankings last week. Like how can you rank a team number one after losing three games? Um, but my numbers actually make this under three, uh, for the, for the Niners on the road against Jacksonville. So

like the team that I perceived that I would be on, I'm not actually on. Um, and I think that's a big reason why the problem though, is they really could step up on defense. Like it's one of those things where the numbers say one thing, but like, I know I've seen it. We saw it last year. We saw it all last year. We, you know, we know who the players are. We know they have a talent. They added Chase Young and you know, the coaching maybe was a downgrade from what they had last year with D'Amico Ryan's, but they also just had a bye week to figure some stuff out like there's a chance that this Niners team kind of hits its stride coming out of the bye week and that's not something I want to run into with the Jags this week because if they do if that defense returns to form they're

going to be materially better and they will be the best team in the NFL um it's also not a game that I want to tease the Jags I mean I know we're kind of out of the two and a half now under the three, so it's probably not a great teaser candidate anyway, but this is the kind of game that could get out of hand if, if that 49ers defense shows up the way that it can, uh, out of the, but I do like the Jags and I do like Trevor Lawrence, but this is a really, really tough matchup. And, and like you said, schematically, if the Niners, you know, use the Jaguars aggressiveness against the run against them and really get really get that to create space on the outside the way Shanahan can and does frequently,

then this could be an easy game where the Niners just march up and down the field. It might take a while. So the over is maybe a little bit dicey for me, but I do expect the Niners to move the ball well and successfully throughout the game. Yeah, I don't have a good feel for this one. I feel like both teams,

I feel like every week, like Jacksonville, first of all, they're six and two, they won five in a row. But we're not talking about them as a team that we think is real contenders in this conference. I just feel like there's a lot of meat left on the bone every week

in terms of they went out and they beat Pittsburgh 20 to 10. It was sloppy, bad turnovers. Like it should be like kind of really pulling away from that team, especially with the way that we'll steal is just kind of muck up things. And, uh, but yeah, I mean, I just, I feel like the Jags are good. They belong to in that discussion. They should be the playoff team.

They should be the team that we kind of thought coming in was the clear favorite in that division. But I don't think of them as like a six and two Ac powerhouse that's going to actually really get in the way of some of these other teams here in the conference so um i think they can be better i haven't seen yet need to see some more consistency consistency from trevor lawrence uh the run game the offensive line hasn't been great so um you know and i want to see like you mentioned like fred fred warner we talk about like all worldworld linebackers. He's got like a 17% missed tackle rate this year.

That is not what we've seen from Fred Warner at all in his career. Dre Greenlaw in and out of the lineup all the time. The secondary you can pick on if you can't get to the quarterback. So I think they felt like, hey, we need to make a move here. And I think that Chase Young is a splashy move. Let's see what kind of comes out of that in the bye and moving forward. So for me, it's going to be a watch and see i'm with you i don't think there's teaser legs because i think there's a pretty wide range of outcomes if the niners get rolling here i don't i don't

want jags plus money because i think the the niners can get uh can steamroll them here a little bit too so i'm gonna be a good one to watch i want to wait and see next detroit is on the road they're in la uh this open detroit's uh minus and a half, moved to two and a half on Monday. That's a movement earlier today on this one as well. We are now out to Detroit's minus three across the board here against the Chargers. Totals hold strong, 48 and a half. It's a tough schedule spot for the Chargers. Lions coming off of a bye.

Chargers having to go east back to west. They were in New York, obviously, on Monday night. Back home in Chargers home games. never a home field advantage here to alliance fans obviously you know they're dying to restore the roar here really so they're like traveling well and stuff all of a sudden probably a de facto home game for detroit here so and the trick too is like a weird team like i i almost buy into like some narratives and coach speak with the team like detroit more than i would for any other team because of like this coaching staff former players dan campbell like they got their teeth kicked in by baltimore before the bye that

probably didn't sit well and has been kind of stewing a little bit and now they get to come out against the chargers team who just i don't know there's just not a lot of juice here connor what are your thoughts on det and the Chargers? Yeah, I know we're going back to back here, but I also like the over in this game because I think that we both have these defenses here and I was digging into their splits against like good teams. It's wild. So we look at this, this Chargers defense here. They played against like three good quarterbacks,

466 yards and three touchdowns of Tua, 367 yards and three touchdowns of Kirk Cousins, 424 yards and four touchdowns of Tua, 367 yards and three touchdowns of Kirk Cousins, 424 yards and four touchdowns of Patrick Mahomes. Like that is any reasonable offense they played against. That's been what they've allowed. And then the Lions defense, kind of the same thing here against Lamar Jackson, Geno, and Matt Mahomes, where Mahomes frankly played terrible.

The Chiefs offense played terrible. Still including that because again, I'm not going to disclude it just because he's had a bad game. 300 passing yards per game, allowing eight and a half yards per attempt, 13% explosive pass rate, seven touchdowns, one pick. So I know that it's not all in those splits, but I mean, I think that contextualizing it

and looking at who they're playing this week is important. Now, I think there could be some questions about how much juice the Chargers offense has in totality, but I kind of think the last week was a little bit of an outlier with how poorly their offense had played because the Jets defenses, as we talked on the show, awesome. Like they're a great, great defense and the Chargers didn't have Josh Palmer

in a matchup where they literally could not throw outside the numbers because of sauce and EJ Reid. So I don't know. I kind of think they get the totals 48 and a half. So it seems a little bit high, but I think we could have some success here from both sides offensively. I mean, they they won by 27 points so it's like a weird

situation where you come out of it feeling like oh they you know they look at the kick return or whatever right it was like a punt return maybe so yeah yeah yeah right yeah uh clark where you at in this one yeah the lions defense has had some coverage lapses like they've their numbers are really good and the production's been really good but it's been a lot of there's been a lot of throws where it's like I mean we saw it on on Monday night in full display against the Raiders where if the quarterback just throws the ball accurately like those numbers don't look good you know Devante Adams catches two long bombs if Garoppolo can hit him that's been the case throughout the year and the bad quarterbacks the Lions have faced haven't been able to capitalize.

Baker Mayfield was the same way, missed a lot of throws that could have been successful in that game, whereas Lamar Jackson just absolutely dominated them. So if Justin Herbert can capitalize against those lapses in coverage against the Lions, then I do think that the Chargers can have some success here. Since the bye, they've struggled on offense without Mike Williams and Corey Lindsley, but they've gone against the Jets, who are an elite defense. They've gone against the Chiefs and the Cowboys, who are also very good on defense.

And then finally, the Bears, who are playing better on defense, and the Chargers played well on offense in that game anyway. So this does project to be a game where I think the Chargers offense gets back on track. You know, the travel concerns are there, the bye week, extra week to prepare for the Lions. You know, Ben Johnson's probably scheming up some stuff to capitalize against this chargers defense is not a great proposition. It feels like the kind of game where

if the chargers, you know, get a three and out on their first possession, it's going to be 14, nothing lions. And then it's like, Oh, you know, why did I bet on the chargers? So I'm still processing that. I, would prefer, when I was at two and a half, my numbers prefer the teaser leg. You can still tease from three to nine, but you don't get as much value there. So I'm hands off on this game for now. But this is a game that I think means a lot more to the Chargers than it does the Lions. Whether or not that impacts the actual final score, I don't know. But it's not a spot that I'm looking to get involved with the, with the home favorite against a team that is in desperation mode,

trying to save its season and probably should have a good game. Yeah. It's the Mike Williams injury. And we've seen it because this happens annually. We have a Mike Williams injury that has massive ramifications, the offensive upside of the chargers and like quick Quentin Williams. They want him to maybe be the dude he's out there a ton on monday night and like absolutely nothing like bottom of the league and like yards per outrun i think like really close to bottom of

the league in terms of like where he's at just not getting it done it's just again it has to be a lot of austin eckler has to be a lot of Keenan Allen to stretch the fields. How you charge or the, you know, the lines are getting healthy, you know, get, you know, David Montgomery back here. And I don't think they're going to need Jerry Goff to cook, but I think Jerry Goff is like uber efficient and picks apart this charges defense kind of like with Connor outline, like when they've played really good quarterbacks and quarterbacks thinking, get it done, protected, uh yeah i like i said

two and a half would be more interesting i didn't get in on two and a half so three is way less enticing to me but i would definitely be lions or nothing to me i'm not really interested in the chargers in this situation in this spot um i could be sold on the over uh i think that's probably a good lean there too but yeah i think even lions team total i think the lions have no problem putting up points and moving the ball here on the chargers all right next we have houston on the road in cincinnati uh it's opened cincinnati minus eight down to six and a half in most spots there are some uh juice sevens out there as well total has been bet out from 45 and a half to 48 in most spots this is obviously driven off of the news to monitor here around jamar chase in his back he

landed awkwardly on the lower back there and a deep attempt early in the matchup against the bills sure enough he's feeling it didn't practice here on wednesday uh we'll have to wait and see what happens there i don't know that i expect it to be like a long-term issue maybe it's an impactful issue for this week um you know kind of strange quotes in terms of like i just gotta support my teammates you know i gotta get healthy like didn't of like, I just got to support my teammates. You know, I got to get healthy. Like, it didn't sound super encouraging. But on the other side, the CJ Stroud stuff, guys, is like, it was awesome. I mean, again, like, sorry, Clark, it's a bad way to lose a bet.

Gaudy stat line. He threw like 325 yards in the second half alone. The last second comeback was awesome. Some of the stuff, though, and Solak did a great job on his piece on the ringer this week. Every quarterback with at least 200 pass attempts has thrown at least three picks. Stroud has one. That's impressive in and of itself. There are paths for that to happen though, right? It makes sense. Like if you think about how you can maybe get there in terms of like just protecting the football, extremely impressive though with a rookie quarterback and a rookie play caller and Bobby Slowick, but like, you can just play really cautious.

You can just check down. You can throw it away all the time. We've seen that like Aaron Rogers had a handful of years there where he just like refused to throw an interception. He, he like tripled everyone. And like, you know, throw away rate. Like you just, you know, take a ton of sacks to get the ball out quick in extremely high, quick game screen passes. No, that is not what's happening. Stroud is dropping back behind what's been mostly a decimated offensive line. He's turned Nico Collins and Tang Dell into like household names. They've been like dudes this year. They've been getting it done. He's fifth in average depth of target on a season. He's second in average depth of target on play action

looks like this is next level stuff. So like, like yeah we had the moment where it was like a great comeback but like all the stuff beyond it is really really encouraging that he's like maybe actually a guy now they're getting healthy part of it's too like you lose damian pierce you don't want to really run with devin singletary so all of a sudden you like, sometimes you accidentally unlock a next level for the quarterback here. And that's, what's happening with Stroud here. I understand maybe kind of this pro Stroud movement here, along with the Jamar chase news here.

Clark has kind of moved this. What are your thoughts on this one? It's going to be a fun one to watch. I think. Yeah, totally. Stroud was the man. I mean,

his, his demeanor, everything, everything about the way he plays the game is, is so exciting. He's super solid. I, I've been, everything about the way he plays the game is so exciting. He's super solid. I've been really enjoying watching the Texans, but surprisingly, I actually don't like them in this game.

I think, I mean, obviously not a six and a half. It's more interesting at seven. I think that's kind of where we're headed. But even there, the Bengals are playing better on defense than they have earlier in the year. And I think this is an important point heading into this part of the season. Last year, you know, part of their strength on defense was their safety tandem, and they got rid of both of them. And they've had two young guys, not rookies, but, you know, basically rookies, step into

the defense. And it's looked worse this year, especially early on. Those guys are getting better. They're figuring stuff out schematically. You know, Lou Anarumo always does this. He figures stuff out by the end of the year. He knows what he's doing. He knows what his guys can do. And I think we're seeing this. Like, my big takeaway from the Bills-Bengals game was that the Bengals defense actually stopped the Bills offense quite a lot. And this Bills offense has been playing very well this year. So that was very impressive

to me. I think that is one thing to be watching for. And the other side, Joe Burrow is playing the best football of his career right now, in my opinion. His command of the offense, his anticipation, his timing, his accuracy, his poise, everything is very, very flat and very, very solid. And I think he understands when to take chances. He understands when to take what the defense gives. And he's playing at a level that I think is good enough to carry, you know, the Bengals back to relevance after a really rough start. So this is a Bengals team that's hitting its stride and playing at home

against the Texans team that just came off a massive win that they feel really, really good about. And I think this is a spot where it's exciting to look at what the Texans can do, but I think this is going to be a Lou and a room over as a CJ Stroud game. And I think Lou and a room wins that matchup. So, and, and Bobby Slope, like you said.

So this is a game that I'm not looking to get involved in with such a big spread, but not one that I'm looking to back the Texans where I might've thought that I wanted to, because I love the Texans offense and getting seven with a good offense is typically a good angle, but this isn't the spot for me. Connor, I'm shook right now. This is pro bangles talk coming from from clark here i definitely i thought for sure he was in on to maybe have some you know pocket texans you know states that he didn't tell us about here uh pro lou amarillo takes here yeah

i'm uh i i'm next week we're gonna get pro eagles thoughts from clark and like the whole world they know the world's over if if he says theun anything good about deshaun watson we know that yeah then we're really clark we gotta go you know i mean obviously jamar chase matters and fabian said t higgins is limited i don't not too worried about that it's wednesday whatever um also you know jamar chase is saying that stuff but like you remember when tyreek hill was like uh you may see me in a couple of months or whatever, and then he's out the next week. Players, especially wide receivers, this is the wide receiver, the enemy holds a knife or whatever.

They say stuff that is just out there. So I'm not giving up on Chase yet. If he's ruled out, it obviously dampens some optimism. But if Chase plays, then teasing the Bengals down to one is auto bet for me. Yeah. Tee Higgins could be interesting big t higgins week for um a boy connor here made some money at laddering t higgins this is t higgins um basically playing and highlighting himself for his uh his future team next year uh t higgins uh in texans is uh texas got a lot of money to spend uh t higgins not coming back to Cincinnati. Uh,

that could be very interesting, but yeah, Connor floor is yours. What are your thoughts here on, uh, Houston in Cincinnati? I noticed what Clark did with the Cincinnati defense, because there are,

there are total metrics here. 31st and explosive pass rate allowed 28th and passing success rate. Just like it was not reflected in any way. Uh, you know what we saw last week. And so I have some concern about this Texans offense. Also, the fact is like, they just can't run the ball like at all. Like I don't think opponent agnostic, like they literally cannot run the ball

no matter who they play. And so even though the Bengals run defense at times has been leaky, like I just don't think that even matters in any facet here because they just haven't shown to be able to do it against literally anyone. And so that's kind of, that could be an issue when they face a team that kind of figures that out a little bit. And I think Lou Aaron-Narumo could be a coach that's able to do that. Also where I think Cincinnati could have an edge is on play action.

So out of the bye, we saw Joe Burrow use play action more. Since the bye, 31% play action rate. Texans against play action, 31st completion rate, 29th in yards per attempt, allowing 10 yards per attempt against play action. So completion rate 29th and yards per attempt on 10 yards per attempt against play action so I mean it could be a great time and that's why we've seen T Higgins get more involved is because they're able to have like deeper routes where it's not just like oh you need to get open in like two seconds because that's not really T Higgins game that's more of a Jamar Chase Tyler Boyd game and that's I mean reflected in his production so

obviously I would like T Higgins to be fully healthy in order to make a bet on the Bengals here. I would like Jamar chase to be fully healthy. I think that one's a little bit more up in the air, but again, like Clark said, we'll see. I think if, you know, if, if chase misses and there's still a seven around here, I would lean towards Houston at seven. If we can get a six and a half and we have chase and Higgins in, you know, I would be fine with that too. So I guess, I think that they, honestly, both of those guys matter a lot in this matchup. Yeah. You guys touched on it. Basically we had Seattle scored 13,

San Francisco scored 17 and Baltimore scored 18. Those are the last three games, really strong offenses. And that's just Cincinnati is, is taking it to a different level. And as Clark said, maybe just a little bit more continuity in terms of what's going on in the back half um it's just been significantly better we've had some really good games from trey hendricks and you know sam hubbard up front um you know the interior with uh you know hill and reader or excellent like it's just a really nice unit that seems to be gelling so a lot of things kind of working there uh on the you know

the bengal side look we're coming off of two weeks ago, this Texas team lost to the Panthers, and kind of handily in a way. The score didn't show it that way, but they really couldn't get anything going. So yeah, part of it is I think they kind of accidentally backed into having to go more pass heavy, and that just allowed them to kind of maximize their best talent. sometimes you gotta do that like get off of the get off the run yeah they capitalized

against some secondary injuries against the bucks think jamal dean was out in that second half when when he did almost the whole game yeah almost the whole game and and baker mayfield let's not forget baker mayfield absolutely torched this texans defense on the other side like we'd be talking about baker mayfield if cecil stroud didn't, you know, miracle comeback that game. So this is not a defense that I'm particularly afraid of, even without Jamar Chase. You know, Joe Burrow has done it, but without Chase in the past, he's, he's, I projected a big drop off for him last year in those four games where he missed Chase and he made me look silly for that projection. So I, I think the Bengals can figure it out. Yeah. It's Bengals or nothing for me. I'm

not super interested in the Texans, even though, you know, I pumped Stroud's tires there to start. I think just excited to have a nice young quarterback in the league. That's going to be, I think around and a guy for a couple of years. And, you know, even though they kind of interesting to see what they did in the draft, I think they hit home runs at least with both picks. Like Will Anderson Jr. has been outstanding. And, you know, obviously Stroud is the guy too. So yeah, they've, they kind of sold out this year, but at least they went two for two

with those top three picks. What about those Joe Burrow MVP tickets? Those are nice. The LV looking nice right now. Okay. I will say the Josh Allen 20 to one now is probably a pretty good buy yeah you know buyback i think so the josh allen stuff makes a ton of sense because like think about how they have to get there based off of what we know of how the bills are right now it's going to be josh allen superman

performances because the defense can jim burrow win mvp if the ravens win the afc north probably not that's the that's the issue that that. That's the biggest issue. I mean, at the top here, we have Jalen Hurts, Mahomes, Tua, and Lamar. I think Mahomes and Tua are both very flimsy. I think Jalen Hurts is very thin. Lamar is the only one because they might just win a shitload of games. Yeah. You know what I mean?

If the Ravens go 13-4, I think Lamar gets it, yeah. Yeah. So let's pivot real quick while we're here connor do you have defensive player of the year stuff open yeah i got my my phone next to me here let me uh offense working in the defensive player of the year you said uh yeah what are you looking for well so we it was basically uh you know miles garrett and tj watt there for a little bit or you know clearly the guys um and i don't know what the historical stuff is on defensive player of the year if your team's not

making the playoffs um to clark's point like clark's taking plus money on the browns to not make the playoffs like look stills are five and three they're in playoff position right now i don't think that's a playoff team um and what happens if all of a sudden the second half of the season we start to see the sack performance that we would expect from micah parsons on the team that we definitely think is making the playoffs if he's like third in that market um you know i don't know what the market is currently i'm seeing plus 180 unfortunately he's the favorite he's plus 180 garrett plus 190 tj watt two to one such and everyone else is like 20 to one so it's like a three-man race right now there's probably been some money on them looking plus 180 Garrett plus 190 TJ watt two to one. So that's just everyone else is like 20 to one. So it's like a three man race right now. There's probably been some money on them looking at the next four games for

the Cowboys. I think it's going to be Micah Parsons, DPO, why audition season? I mean, he's going to get, you know, no one's hanging multiple sack lines out there for us,

but I mean, gosh, against this giants offensive line with, you know, Danny DeVito at quarterback, like that is not going to go very well uh so it'd be like whenever you want to sack you know what I mean like it's not even going to be like how many whenever he wants one he can just get one yeah Giants and then Panthers and then

commanders come oh my gosh yeah Bryce is taking sacks a lot too right now and Bryce's yeah he's eating sacks that's yeah so i don't know i think that that's that's not where it was i think there's that's makes some sense but i still think that's probably the right side now again like max crosby is the same argument like i can't talk about max crosby and make the same argument about not making the playoffs he shouldn't be like 25 or 30 they're dead last at pressure rate and he's like going like as a team and he's like absolutely dominating uh and has been an absolute stud um he shouldn't be as far out as he is but again that's kind of my point is you know the raiders are you know 6 and 11 he doesn't

really matter how good max crosby is you know so hard to to stand on that but uh yeah i don't know michael parsons i think it was probably close to two to one still probably a pretty good bet live so plus 190 fando i just checked there not bad yeah i mean at this point i have some i have 700 and 650 from the preseason so i'm not i don't need any more but i feel good about it where it's at all right all right next last one arizona uh hosting the falcons here uh this opens cardinals as a one and a half point favor on sunday night quickly went the other All right, next, last one. Arizona hosting the Falcons here. This opened Cardinals as a one and a half point favorite on Sunday night. Quickly went the other way. We had the Falcons one and a half point favorites on Monday.

Then we got Kyler Murray news. We expected it, but again, when it goes official, you just see some reaction in the markets, kind of how these things work. It was enough to move the line back in the Cardinals favor. Arizona one and a half point favorites on Monday night. That's when Clark and I kind of started discussing this matchup a little bit in our discord, just how it made his way here onto the show this week. I was pushing back at the time on what looked to be pretty strong pro

Cardinals market sentiment. I just, my point was, I just not even strong on the Falcons. I just thought if this was going to move to like 2.5 or 3 on the Cardinals side, I thought that that would make an elite leg for the Falcons in the teaser and just had some interest maybe on the Falcons as a money line team. But again, I don't know.

I wasn't alone. This yo-yoed back. Once again, it's now Atlanta minus 1.5 in most spots. Definitely shop this line. There's some like twos. There's some juice 1.5. So take a look here. Totals pushed in most spots. Definitely shop this line. There's some like twos. There's some juice one and a half. So take a look here. Total's pushed up from 41 and a half to 43 here.

Clark, I'm just not sold on Kyler. I'm not sold on the Kyler bump. Again, it can't be worse. Probably it's not gonna be worse than Clayton Toon for sure. Yeah, so that's, you know, I'm not as interested. You know, we're talking about maybe making a hat bet, but I thought we were, you know, that was gonna be like. You know, we're talking about maybe making a hat bet, but I thought that was going to be like Arizona minus three. I'd have been very much interested here.

But what are your thoughts here on Arizona with Kyler in this matchup? You know, this is going to be two firsts for me on this show. First, I'm pro Bengals. Now I'm going to be pro Kyler Murray. I've been one of the biggest Kyler Murray haters for years. But I think this spot actually sets up well for him for a couple reasons. One, I don't like backing quarterbacks in their first game back. This is a pretty well-known angle where starting quarterbacks tend to look a little shaky. But I think the way that this has been handled

makes me less eager to lean into that line. The first is because he's been practicing for weeks. He's been healthy. And this has been kind of a slow process where they wanted to wait until the right moment to bring him out. And he's been practicing. He'll practice with the first team this week and get those reps. So I think his health is not really a concern.

The second is, you know, if you look at what Josh Dobbs did well, both in Arizona and in Minnesota last week, it's that off script plays. And that's what Kyler Murray does well as well. You know, they have talent on, on, on this Arizona offense, especially if James Connor plays, we'll see if that happens, but they've got some speed outside.

And if Kyler Murray can just create and get outside the pocket and, and, you know, get running the way Dobbs did against the same Falcons defense without Brady Jarrett. And I think this Cardinals offense is live to score some points the same way it did in the best games with Dobbs. Like I'm basically projecting the Cardinals offense to be who they were with Josh Dobbs.

And I think that's a pretty low bar for Kyler Murray, who is one of the better quarterbacks when healthy in the league to clear. So that's kind of my side on the Cardinals offense. As for the Falcons offense, I wasn't that impressed with Taylor Heineke last week. I think the problem is Arthur Smith. It wasn't Desmond Ritter and it's not Taylor Heineke.

It's Arthur Smith. And Heineke, you know, was inconsistent, just like we expected him to be. He's missing throws. And so, you know, when the Falcons, when it came down to it and the Falcons had to, you know, deliver a game-winning drive or potential game-winning drive,

it was run, run, run, run, run, run, run. And I think that's just not really a formula for success, especially against an underrated Cardinals defense that really played well against both the Ravens and the Browns in back-to-back weeks that's getting a little bit overlooked because the final scores were so lopsided. But the defense is actually playing pretty well. And this is not a team that is tanking.

This is a perception that the Cardinals are tanking. That's just not true. And, and, you know, Cleve TA on, on Twitter, like he, he, you know, absolutely is adamant that they are not tanking. They want to win. And, you know, he knows Jonathan Gannon. So this is a, a situation where I think the Cardinals, if they're going to win another game, like this is a good spot for it against a pretty overrated Falcons team that, you know, has to go on the road and beat an excited Cardinals team, getting their quarterback back. So I do lean Cardinals, although I don't want to over leverage into an uncertain spot. You know, we talked about this

in the past, so it would be a small bet for me, but I do lean the Cardinals at plus money on the money line. Yeah. Is it a good, do we agree? Well, I don't know if it even matters. Do we agree that it's a good organizational decision that they shouldn't be thinking? Yes,? Well, I don't know if it even matters. Do we agree that it's a good organizational decision that they shouldn't be tanking? Yes, I do. I don't know. I think, I mean, look at the Lions, right? I'm pro tanking anytime you're near the bottom.

Yeah. I mean, like I'm not saying that they should win their way out of the bottom, but I'm saying, you know, three wins, you can still probably get the one or two pick, you know, like, I don't, you know, if it's week 18 and you're the, you know, the last year and you're the Texans and you score a touchdown to beat the Colts, that's stupid. Like there's categorically stupid, bad decision. But week 10, you know, with a team that you're trying to build around, like you got to remember that these guys are going to be on the team next year. And if you just get used to this kind of mindset of losing like that really can impact the culture so i think it's the right move to try to win i just think they want to make sure

they don't go overboard and win six games yeah yeah i think it was smart to do what they did last week right it's like hey we're probably not winning this with kyler let's not throw kyler there in his first game let's you know throw poor Clayton Toon out there as a sacrificial lamb and let him just take a beating and that was smart I just think he makes such a great offseason decision on draft day especially to really just kind of leverage the Texans and we remember him abetting the draft like it felt like a panic reaction we didn't know what the you know there was a split decision in the Texans front office they didn't like there was some will anderson love there's cj stroud they're like hey why not both like all right well let's get on the call with arizona and it's like you've done

such a good job at setting yourself up like just and we know what the skeleton key is to winning in the nfl these days is to have a top performing quarterback on a rookie deal and that you put yourself in a massive, massive spot with all that draft capital, all of that financial freedom that comes with Kyler Murray being gone, and you get a rookie contract. I mean, it just, man, you can fast-track your way there, especially if you hit on the quarterback. And again, these players are all, whether it's to point like yeah they need they want to build a culture of winning

players don't tank they want to put good tape out there they're not going to be in arizona they want to be somewhere else like these players are not going out and trying to lose football games that's ridiculous not what i'm implying insinuating at all i understand why a coach would say we're out here trying to win football games he He has a real long leash. He came with like a front office. So anytime you get like that front office change with the coaching staff, and I feel like the leash is a real long, like let's just build this the right way.

So I don't know. That's more like team building than this matchup specifically, but like Kyler wasn't good last year at all. Any way, shape or form. And he also, to me, like, again again this is like again narrative driven he's kind of a front runner like there's a really bad body language when they're not winning and going well and he's got like worse talent than he had last year like he had marquise brown and deandre hopkins and was like one of the worst passers in league basically in any metric with some good stuff from

rich rebar over at sharp football or 33 qualified passers in league passer rating murray 17th in epa drop back 23rd success rate career lows in yards per attempt yards per completion touchdown rate he was really bad anytime he pushed the ball down the field and we know we had like you know the just all the stuff with kingsbury was just all quick outs to the sidelines. It was nothing down the field, partially because Murray was bad 20 or 42.1% of his completion percentage on passes 10 years down the field. His success rate was only had a Carson Wentz, Kenny Pickett and Zach Wilson. That is not good. And the town's worse. So I'm also just worried about first time back, is that a spot where I expect him to come in and be somewhat closer to the guy that he's been?

Do I really think he's going to be the guy that he was in 2021 in his first time back after nine months removed from an injury? I don't. And the market seems to agree at least a little bit compared to how we kind of look like we were training on Monday. Connor, floor is yours for this matchup. Yeah, I will say, though, this is a new system with Drew Petzing and not the system with Cliff Kingsbury,

which I think proved to not work at all. And so I think that maybe that helps. I mean, Josh Dobbs looked okay some games. He wasn't terrible all the time. And I don't think that he's a particularly good quarterback. I know that the media hoopla about him coming in and what he did was absolutely incredible, but that was more, I think, just kind of a fluke, to be honest.

It was just like a freak performance. Yeah, it was awesome. Don't get me wrong, but I don't think that that means that Josh Dobbs is a good quarterback that I want to run my offense. So I don't know. I kind of go back and forth on it. I don't really have too strong of a take, specifically on Kyler, because I agree with everything.

Basically, both of you guys said, I just think that there should be at least some optimism in a new system, given that they've already, in my opinion, kind of outperformed what they already had like talent wise to start, even though the record doesn't necessarily reflect that. Defensively, though, I think that Atlanta is probably gonna have a lot of success running the ball and so i think that could kind of dictate some of this game here cardinals uh you know right now have been uh fourth worst success rate four backs go over 100 yards 60 over 80 um they're fine against the past you know they've been getting better so i don't know i think that

if atlanta has success on the ground to kind of alleviate some of the issues with heineke potentially so um yeah i don't know kind of a stay away in hindsight because this didn't move to a number where you guys can make a hat bet uh you know I wish we took the show this game off the show sheet as uh Nat H here I think is implying but uh you know always fun to talk about a you know shitty game here and there aren't honestly hold that many more other good games so yeah I know that we like missed anything that's uh yeah an obvious play here but is there anything else on the board clark do you like uh that you want to talk about here for week 10 well i gave one leg of a teaser so i always have to give out the other leg and and

for me that's bills on monday night football they're minus seven and a half at home against the broncos i would play that minus one and a half in a teaser with any other leg you can possibly find i'd probably you know mix and match it because the Bills at five and four, I mean, their season, like they lose to the Broncos, their season is over. And, you know, that kind of like, well, if they lose this one, like motivational angle doesn't tend to be, doesn't tend to turn a bad team into a good team, but it does turn a underperforming, very good team into a good performance. And I think that's the difference here is the bills are a very, very good team,

but they haven't been delivering the results. Like things like, you know, Dalton Kincaid fumbling on the 10 yard line of Cincinnati, you know, Josh Allen's weird interceptions. These things tend to swing outcomes, but they're not necessarily predictive of future performance.

So I think this is a spot at home on Monday night where the bills take care of business. So I would tease that a spot at home on Monday night where the bills take care of business. So I would tease that with the Bengals tease that with whatever other teaser leg you like. But as far as size and totals, I'm still kind of processing working my way through the, through the slate.

Yeah. A couple legs that I like and I well, the one is gone, but I still like the Vikings teasingings um teasing the vikings at home against the saints i just saints find ways unique ways to keep games close um i feel like they're kind of like the vikings last year where the vikings just like refused to win by margin basically last year i just don't think that's really what's happening with the saints at all so i like the vikings in this spot you know, the Josh Dobbs stuff another week.

I've been really impressed by the Vikings defense. So if you can get the Vikings, you know, it's two and a half across the board. You get that out to eight and a half. I think it's a great teaser leg. I grabbed the Cowboys when it was 15 and a half, you know, kind of an unusual teaser leg, but it brought it down to nine and a half, which again, like I guess 14 and 10 are key numbers. So not a typical, you you know long teaser leg um but we've we brought the cowboys down to uh to nine and a half so uh i like that one quite a bit and

you know now we're up to 16 and a half i don't like it quite as much but i again still think it's a good spot there so are you guys laughing at me like that that's not a good teaser like i mean come on it's not it's not you don't get enough i think the math would disagree with you i know i'm not saying it's a long teaser like i think it's still just play the just play the cowboys man they're gonna win by 30 anyways danny devito's i needed a pair of my vikings my numbers actually like the giants in that game i just i can't bring myself burn your numbers throw them in the fire you can't do that yeah i can't do it. No, the Seattle-Washington over is another bet that I like. This is a game where it opened 44.5.

I think it's up to 45.5. I would still play it at 45.5. This is a Seattle offense that has the weapons and quarterback to capitalize against a weak commander's secondary. The Patriots did not have that. The commander's defense has been bad all year, especially the back end, but their front four has been getting enough

pressure to make it a little bit difficult. Now they've lost Montez Sweat and Chase Young. So you're going to have Geno Smith with all the time in the world to pick apart a bad secondary with three really good receivers. Seahawks are going to score. And then on the other side, I've been really impressed with the shift in the Commanders offense schematically.

I think they're getting the ball out faster for how short of dropbacks, lateral movement, things like that. So I do think Washington can either, you know, keep up or play from behind. Either way, I think the points get put on the board here. Yeah. Don't mind that at all. I think, you know, again, with teams going so throw past everything,

especially the commanders, like just a loss for more plays, right? Incomplete passes, stop the clock, that allows for more play volume. And those things all lead to more drives, more plays, and more opportunities. I like the Raiders team total under 17 and a half. Like poo-pooing my teaser. Like, look, hey, they don't all have to be plus EV. They don't have to all be perfect Wong teasers. You can go pound sand when the, you know, the Cowboys win by 10 and we're cruising comfortably paired with my math-approved Vikings at 8.5.

So sometimes you just got to pick the right side, and Cowboys under 10 is the right side. But I like that you got Raiders team total under 17.5 here too. I think Ian O'Connell has been eating sacks, even though he hasn't had a big sample, but he's got a 41.2% pressure to sack rate in his limited time here. He pressured 17 times to take in seven sacks. That's not great against the Jets defense that can just kind of spam the passer here. So I'll probably bet the board in terms of Jets to get sacks here, probably quarter plus money. I'll probably bet the board in terms of, uh, you know, jets to get sacks here, probably, you know, quarter plus money. There'll probably be three or four guys there. So, uh,

Connor, what do you like here on the board? Yeah. The only thing I would add commanders, uh, Seahawks, we took a little bit of pieces Seahawks there. I still like him at six. Um, obviously buying the Seahawks last week did not work out at all in any way, shape or form. Uh, but you know, I'm, I'm back to the well again here. And I think that we're going to see a better performance. I mean, Baltimore also shit on Detroit. I think Detroit's still a very good team. So, you know, I don't think that that's necessarily, you know, indicative of what we'll see here against Washington. I think like Clark mentioned, uh, New England just straight up didn't have the personality to exploit, uh, you know,

the commanders. And I think that Seattle has has you know that and way way way more so um i think plenty of offensive success there and then even though the commanders i think will be throw heavy and probably drive volume i still expect uh seattle defense to play pretty well so we'll see i like i like uh seattle here minus six yeah uh good stuff what else we got here anything else we want to talk about i think we're good that's it yeah all right good stuff what else we got here anything else we want to talk about i think we're good that's it yeah all right good stuff we appreciate it as always appreciate you hanging out uh look hey embarrassing as usual hey appreciate it bud uh we all have a brand we're onto yours but we appreciate you uh hate watching our show hit the like and subscribe on the way out the door we

appreciate all the stuff um But yeah, thanks. We really appreciate all your time. And again, don't forget to subscribe, rate, and review. You might already have a sub, but if you don't, remember 444.com slash plans. You can use promo code bets50

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Thanks, everybody. you