Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 11 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: November 13, 2024

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 11! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 11 betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼    / johnlaghezza Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move the line presented by draft king sportsbook ryan noonan back week 11 here to talk all things nfl we'll see sides and totals get some thoughts in the future market joined here as always by connor allen what's going on my friend not much still somehow sick i feel like i've been sick for like a week i don't know both of us have been sick so uh i expend all my energy in this and then probably go back to sleep maybe work a little more but not at 100 because you know it's sick season but we'll grind through it football season's going well we're still crushing props and excited to uh talk some ball today with our guests yeah joining us this week is first time guest guest, but long overdue. Big, big fan of his work. He is a grinder.

It's like overused in the space a little bit. And, you know, everyone, I'm not saying people don't work hard, but like this gentleman absolutely grinds, always brings energy at a contagious level. You can find his work at The Athletic. You can find his sub stack, which is very much worth your time and money. And read the newsletter that he writes with the team over at fantasy life. Friends of ours as well.

It is John the gazer. Find them on Twitter. John the gazer. John. So my friend, welcome to the show. Man, a blessing.

Thank you so much. This is so cool. I think you guys know it. You know, this is a check off the bucket list. Me, you guys quite literally are one of the gold standards in this industry. It's an,

it's an honor, but I'm ready to, I'm ready to chop it up. Right. I let you know, we don't get ready. We stay ready. Right. I'm ready to chop it up. I let you know. We don't get ready. We stay ready. I stay ready. You literally,

when you're doing it at this level, and I appreciate it. It's a lot of fun, but it's a lot of hard work. You just can't afford to take your eye off it. We'll do that after the Super Bowl. I'll just completely unplug. You guys know the deal. It's moving so fast. It's such a dynamic league. Games every other day.

Then the main slate Sunday. Injuries, practice reports. The way we're getting lied to about those injury reports. You can't afford to get whipsawed. I'm really nose to the grindstone 24-7. I do appreciate that, Ryan. Yeah, I'm talking to John. People look behind the curtain and appreciate it. I'm like, hey, I'm going to give you a heads up

some of the games we're going to talk about, maybe some topics we'll talk about. And his response was, I don't have to get ready. I stay ready. I'm like, awesome. Absolutely love it. And it's true. It is true.

It comes across in the work that you do. So I never take the foot off the gas in the NFL side because we try the football ends. We jump into the draft. All of a sudden, like the way that the NFL lays out the schedule, like there is no off season in football. so you have to kind of stay ready here. We're going to get to some of those games here on the Week 11 slate.

We'll talk a little bit of futures at the top as well. Before you do, I want to be a pal, take a second, review the show. You can find us, Move the Line, on 444Bet's YouTube channel. You can find Move the Line wherever you listen to podcasts. Come back, there's two episodes each week. This is the Wednesday show. More sides, totals, overarching thoughts in the NFL. Friday is Prop Drop Show.

Myself, Connor, John Hyslop. 3 p.m. Eastern. Again, same podcast feed, same YouTube channel. Get the betting sub. Great time to do so. 444.com slash plans. Get you access to everything that we do at 444. Lots of different ways to do it.

You can find more information in the show notes through partners with rebet, uh, lots of different ways. You have questions specifically, let us know, but you want to get in that discord. You want all the official plays. Uh, you want Connors unders just absolutely killing it with unders this year. Uh, I know it pains him anytime he pushes out and over.

And when he pushes out and over, you gotta be like, Holy shit. Like Connor really likes this play because it doesn't happen very often. I think those are probably even hitting at a higher rate this year too. You want access to those. Those are in the discord, tackles, sacks. We're killing it with a chop Robinson sweat on Monday night football that lasted, I don't know, like three snaps. I got a plus 360 sack for us. We're crushing sacks as well this year. So get in the discord, get all those plays, check it out. Let us know if you have any specific questions. All right, John, I want to know more about your weekly process. I know you were grinding. I know you have the sub stack. I know you're putting a lot of stuff together that's in terms of aggregating data. I used to do something

like that too. We've kind of automated it on the site but like i think sometimes like collecting that data helps you actually know the data too in a different level um i have actually stopped there's some stuff that i know i could probably automate on the projection side that i do for tackles but i don't want to automate it because i want to see it uh and transfer it over to my sheet because then i feel like i know it in a different way so talk to me a little bit about your weekly process how you handicap games and again i know you know you're doing a million different things. I think the Substack piece is absolutely awesome. Before I forget, the most important thing that I think you mentioned is very similar

when your kids are doing homework or if you have kids, you tell them when you write it down, you're more likely to remember it. It is like that. So and to my specific process, I do something very similar with, right, so I do custom projections, but again, I use a calculator and I do suggest people use a simulating calculator. It's amazing how many people out there will put a passing yard projection out that the receiving yards don't add up to that, right? They either add up to more or less than that, you know, 300 yards from the passer, but there's 400 yards on the board. It really shouldn't be that way, people.

That's not how mean projections work. You're absolutely going to get yourself in trouble. So I like to hand input my team target shares, my catch shares, because I do think the way that we follow it, trajectory and utilization is where you find that edge. Again, you don't want to be inside your computer pulling every little nut and bottle. That's not how you do it. But I do think, you mentioned scraping data, very important.

For me, it's that famous Lincoln quote, everybody, you give me five hours to chop down the tree, I probably spend the first four of them sharpening my ax. So I really take that to heart. We know we're going to be covering an absolute mountain of data, right? It's coming. You're going to be talking about 15 different games.

Just accept that. Do all the preparation first. So I find rather than having to look at the same thing five different times, I scrape everything all at once. You set your spreadsheet. Set a template. This is all things you can do beforehand. Right? Again, one of the greater kind of lessons to this, people, is being proactive rather than reactive, right? Anything that you could do ahead of time, get it done, set the table,

because again, once this machine starts whirring, it's very hard to catch up. You need to at least stay with the pack. If you fall behind, like the slowest antelope, you're going to get eaten. So for me, the week starts with data scraping. While I'm scraping data, I'm watching games back. Now, again, everyone has a different process. I actually find I learn a lot listening to the actual broadcasts. So as much as I like to watch condensed games, you can't do that. I have found this year, NFL Plus, God bless them, added picture in a picture. I don't know if anyone is hip to this.

So you were never able to watch the game on a shrunk screen. Now you can watch the game on a shrunk screen that you can stretch while you're listening to it. So even if you don't have your eyes on the entire game, you could really suck up a game. You're making notes in the meantime. I have found that, along with the daily newsletter, always staying on top of it.

So data is set and scraped. Now I always am going to be able to refer to it. You guys are going to throw some fastballs at me in a little bit and I'm going to crush a few ding-dongs, right? Because it's all set. People talk to me about this and go, how is it physically possible?

Because the ax is sharpened, right? So that's pretty much it. It's stay ready, get all your data first and then, you know, stay with it. Be open-minded, listen to short people like yourself. Also, you know, it's very important to do your own work, but there's nothing wrong with listening to, again, you guys mentioned the draft and stuff. When I shift into baseball, I need to outsource my work. This is the very last point to quality minds. And that's where you guys kind of step in. My off season never ends. Now, hour-wise it does, but I carve out a few hours every day against scheduling and templating people, being proactive to stay prepared. And again, you guys have a hand in that.

I appreciate that. Yeah, it's hard, man. Like you have to have a process. You have to stay true to the process. I know there are times early in the week when like, you know, we spend a lot of time on the prop side. I feel like I'm trailing a little bit behind on say like a Wednesday when props start to drop because my process is so defensive heavy Monday, Tuesday, even Wednesday morning that by the time I have to start like compiling my list of like offensive props that I'm looking for, like I sometimes will miss a number if it happens to be an early post or something like that. But I have to stay true because I have to be absolutely ready.

The expectation, I think, for myself and subscribers is that I'm ready on anything that pops defensively as soon as it happens. So I have to be ahead of that. Then we prep for this show and all that stuff. So a lot of the offensive stuff will come Wednesday night. Right, not the country. Your work is even more difficult because the defensive side is not covered the same way. You could find generic offensive stats.

You could fall over them. They're everywhere. Good luck finding them, even the surface stuff. So, again, one of the things that you do where the value – you guys are a true value add, and that's one thing. I'm sorry to step in. I'm going to go back to me. Oh, we're good, buddy.

Yeah, I'll let you cook. Yeah, I love it. I mean, I will do defensive stuff uh till i'm you know till i'm dead till i'm not in the space anymore i actually think it helps me understand holistically ball better to be honest like i just you know i i have my hand on the other side a lot more i think it helps me understand and handicap games too so uh connor anything to add to that or any takeaways from uh john's fire that you just spit right there? I know John was going off. I loved it. No, I personally like leaning on you, too, for some of the defensive stuff, because I understand, obviously, basic defensive mechanisms

and what matters and what doesn't. But like, you know, I don't know off the top of my head, tackle per snap rates of the Giants third string linebacker, you know, like things that, you know, like things that you're able to pull out pretty quickly. Then like, you know, is this guy good or not? You know, a guy that I've never watched play and you might at least have a good idea. So I think that having that as part of our process has been, I mean, fantastic. Not only for, I mean, definitely for me on offensive props, cause I've been able to run stuff like, Hey, this team, you know, has done really well against the slot. Is that because of this or is it because of like something else? And you're able to give me a much better answer more than just like, you know has done really well against the slot is that because of this or is it because of like something else and you're able to give me a much better answer uh more than just like

uh you know general stats against something which you know obviously has a lot of noise in a lot of different ways yeah yeah i love it i mean that's that's part of this too is you know having to outsource you know even internally you know to our team you know when in someone that's hey i can maybe had a note for this and then all of a sudden it's like all right, well my two guys over here on this too, maybe I need to talk kind of dial in too, because it can't be everywhere always. So those things help us a ton,

which is again, iron sharpening iron. Sometimes you've got to stay isolated, do your own work, but at the same time, you know, as John said there, I think it makes a ton of sense very succinctly is that, you know, you have to rely on people you trust in the space as well to help what a solidify a take or you know push you down a rabbit hole that means you you know do a little bit more research on your own from there but allow someone to maybe kind of jumpstart that thought process for you just just great I think

we all do it people that are successful I'll do that too it's hard to stay isolated we all work kind of in a sil, but then you kind of have to find ways to bridge out that way to make sure you're making good decisions. All right. Let's talk a little bit about some futures. Connor and I went long on futures. I mean, we're going to continue to do this because I said, we're in November. We're on the other side of it for the most part. We're getting to the place where we have a handful of buys still coming up, but for the most part, we're getting in the homestretch where the narratives start to take shape in how some of these markets, especially the award markets, are awarded. And that's kind of the thing.

We've talked about that. It's more so than anything, these awards definitely have reactionary momentum swings in the market. We see it all the time. Let's start with the team first here, John. I'll start with you from a team level future. Anything you want to do, a win total, make or miss the time. Let's start with the team first here, John. I'll start with you from like a team level future. Maybe any sort of anything you want to do, a win total, make or miss the playoffs. If you have like a Super Bowl take or anything like that, anything in the team level futures that have caught your eye here in the market right now. Yeah, I was actually glad you

provoked me to look at this. It's again, you do so much work that people wonder like, you don't know all the player names. You don't know every market. No, and we all have blind spots. So I actually appreciate you looking at it. You know me. I'm allergic to pain juice, so I had to find something with a plus. How about this? How about Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs at plus 130?

So at one, I think the implied probability is probably a little bit off. So I think we're getting a little bit of value here. Right now, they're tied on the bubble, right? So on the outside looking in. But they're tied with the Colts at 4-6 behind Denver's 5-5, LA 6-3. I think we've seen the trajectory boost from Cincinnati, right? Kind of getting better on offense. Man, the defense, again, you know, I love to back my paisan out of Romo here,

but they're very much competition-based. I think sometimes that's just the case. Like, you know, Cincinnati, you put them up against a bad offense, there's a good chance they're going to smush them, right? They smushed the Giants. They smushed the Panthers. They smushed the Browns. They smushed the Patriots. But teams the Browns. They smush the Patriots.

But teams like Baltimore are going to run amok against them, right? They're just going to go kind of ballistic. That said, the schedule, looking pretty yummy. Pittsburgh is a little bit tough after the bye. But they go Dallas, Tennessee, Browns, Broncos, and Steelers. Again, Steelers, no cakewalk. But that said, again, I like to bet on good teams. The Bengals can go into any stadium and do work. Right?

And that's the problem with betting on bad teams where you're just like, oh, my God, we're cooked. The Bengals are never cooked. They're never cooked. They can go and beat anybody in a close game. Again, providing the defense holds up. So given the, you know, shape of the asses ahead of them on the ladder, right, I think we're in pretty good shape here.

I like the price, and I think another win, and that has a minus in front of it next week. It's actually mine too, so I will piggyback from our kick at the corner. So I considered to make the playoffs a plus 130. I want to give you a little bit of this. I went over 8.5 wins at 20, because all we need to do, we can still get to, we get to nine wins. And maybe like if someone gets hot in the back end of the playoffs, I'm only giving up 10 cents to make the playoff spot. And I'm still at, you know, plus one 20. And there's still the out to

cash that in case someone else runs a little hotter than the sun in front of them. Uh, for all the reasons that you said, I mean, we basically have to go five and two down the stretch here including this this uh chargers game so this gives you at least the out that they theoretically have to probably get to nine wins either way to make the playoffs and this just covers your butt in case uh they lose a tiebreaker or something like that too but yeah bangles are definitely my win yeah i think you pretty clearly win this one. Listen, I love to argue for my own positions. You know, I like to think they're well- We're aligned.

It's the same. It's the same. I like to think they're well-researched. But again, you know what? This is another good point. Maybe I'll have a light bulb in the crowd go out there. This is something that I use. It's very similar.

Instead of betting against the spread, which we all know is one of the toughest markets literally on earth, I prefer to bet team totals, right? Because the team total doesn't move. It's a set bar. Whereas if the opposition scores, you now have to exceed that team total. And I've even done some work where sometimes if you do the math on what the score would need to be

to cover that team total with the spread, that all under is a better price than the 110 anyway. Again, just some second and third order thinking that goes on with these things. Not that I have to tell you because you just kind of tomahawked on me right there. But that's how we do it, man. I love it. It's all good, baby. That's what we do.

Listen, iron sharpens iron. I truly believe in that. If you don't have rhinoceros skin, the door is over there. This is not for you. This is not for you. If we're not willing to be wrong and admit it, this is not for you. So I think that's brilliant considering the final team right now has five wins. We're only 10 weeks deep.

There's no way anyone's getting in with eight. It ain't happening, brother. So you covered your back end for a tiny pittance in implied probability of getting to nine without making the playoffs. And you, noon in for three. Good job. So before I get into all the defensive stuff, I used to write a team total article every week.

I kind of miss it. To be honest, you want to just go do karate in the basement. We could finish this. The whole thing blows over. We should get an apartment together. Connor, what is your activities?

Connor, you want to jump in on any bangals love or do you have something to, it's funny because I was looking at like two or three of them. I mean, the issue with like these, these markets is like, a lot of them are like minus 2 million and the other side is like, you know, plus 500 and I'm like, I don't know how crazy I want to get. So, um, a different one stood out to me besides the Bengals one. I think Niners to win the division is kind of interesting.

That's plus one 35 right now. They're only a game back behind the Cardinals. They played the Cardinals in the final week of the season, which gives them, I think, some leverage. And then I mean, they're just getting healthier again. Like it's like they were, they were beat up and, you know, obviously losing IU Kurtz, but they put Juwan Jennings outside. It's kind of like their ex-receiver last week. I think he's a pretty good player. And then they have Ricky Pearsall, uh, coming in and playing more as well. And I mean, Debo Pearsall, Kittle and Juwan Jennings, I think is actually a reasonable supporting cast for Purdy. And then obviously Christian McCaffrey, um, you know, rounding into full health played, I think it was what at 13 to 15 running back carries, I think last week. So, uh, I'm excited about this Niners

team going forward. I think they're good. And they have a, I would say middling schedule. They obviously have some tough, tough opponents in the Packers, the bills. But I mean, they still play the bears Rams. I mean, dolphins are beatable Cardinals. Again, I think like, I think that they're probably a little bit above 500. I think the Cardinals are in a similar range. So getting plus one 30 on them to basically beat the Cardinals or maybe even just outperform throughout the rest of the season, I think makes sense as It's a team that I just believe is genuinely better than the Cardinals. Yeah. John, any thoughts on the Niners? Yeah, Niners are really good.

They were tops in your differential before returning Christian McCaffrey, who last I heard is pretty good. Just while I have a second platform. Might be. You guys, you got to ignore the Shanahan injury stuff. You know, listen, I got jerked. I got jerked as a fantasy player on the 101. I got jerked with Debo props on the flu game.

I finally got a little bit of comeuppance when they told us Jordan Mason was starting. This is so ridiculous. McCaffrey didn't fly half around the world to do like, you know, extra marital treatments to come back and practice in full and not get the rock. It's arrows up for the Niners. They're getting very serious right now. Purdy's played great. I think without the MVP pressure on him this year,

I think he's been even better. I think he's better without the attention. Isn't that Mr. Irrelevant? Maybe there's something to it. They're just kind of lunch pailing it, and all of a sudden it's like no one's paying attention to how good the 49ers are. They're excellent.

Yeah, I love that pick also. Yeah. This is why Conor's such a psycho is because McCaffrey was awesome on Sunday. Conor still cashed under 14 and a half carries because – Oh, I was over the 94 combined yards. Yeah, I know because that was a good play. And anyone – Again, it breaks my brain.

My brain would never go to McCaffrey under 14 and a half carries. I understood the process, but my brain does not go there. And when I see it sometimes, I'm like, oh, I reject it. It's great. I needed to luck box into that one because I lost like two or three heartbreakers. Kendrick Bourne didn't play a snap, so my under didn't count on that. And I had under like three catches. Yeah, and I was at the game and Buddy's just on the sideline dancing around like high-fiving

teammates. I'm like, get your ass in there, man. What are we doing? Just one snap. That's a good cap just one snap that's a good cap though that's a good cap he had a you know he had a line so yeah you know it feels good it's like kind of like the lclv you know losing closing line it's like you feel good about it you got clv i mean the play doesn't get much better and still doesn't hit the bank accounts unfortunately so um but yeah definitely ran pure on the mcafree under uh didn't run so pure in some other spots yeah i like it connor i mean dre greenlaw is back running on

the sideline i think we have dre greenlaw probably coming back soon later a legit difference maker one of the best coverage linebackers in the league hopefully he can come back and get up to speed uh devonji campbell struggles in coverage so i think that defense can only get better and malik mustaf in the back end has been awesome for them uh so yeah I mean there's all signs pointing up uh on the Niner side I'm gonna keep it going here I typically don't go first but because we're just talking uh the Bengals specifically on the team side on the future level there's a few different looks um I think I think Jamar Chase because of the schedule that we just laid out is very much a play for offensive player of the Year at 7-1,

even though that shrunk significantly after basically 11-2, 64-3 on a primetime Island game. But still 7-1 in that spot I think is great. And then even though it's a little short on the defensive side, Trey Hendrickson for Defensive Player of the Year is 12-1. If they are who we think they are they're going to make the playoffs they're going to push we know that basically we can cross a line through any defensive player that doesn't make the playoffs so your other elite edge rushers

because this is kind of turned into a elite edge rusher award in a similar way to again unless you're historically breaking records with like interceptions or something like that it is a edge rusher award we can cross the line rusher award. We can cross the line through miles Garrett. We can cross the line through Micah Parsons. We can cross the line through max Crosby. TJ watt currently your favorite TJ watt. It's awesome. Probably be arguably a top two,

three defensive player in the league. He is really hard to disguise. The opposing team knows that he's coming. He's getting chipped. A PFF is starting to track this. He's getting chipped. PFF is starting to track this. He's getting chipped at like a 40% clip. No one else is even at 20. So he's just not getting any clean releases.

His sack numbers are a little bit lower. His pressure rate's a little bit lower. They're going to probably make the playoffs because they just keep winning football games. But Trey Hendrickson is a one-man band in Cincinnati. And if they make the playoffs and he gets to, he's at 11 sacks, he leads the league.

If he starts pushing 18, 20 sacks as the only show in town on that defense, people like big round sack numbers. And look at these opponents we laid out here. Pittsburgh, twice. Russ loves to take sacks. Dallas, whoever's going on there, those offensive tackles, Terrence Steele's been really bad this year, giving up a ton of pressure. They love to take sacks. Dallas, whoever's going on there, those offensive tackles. Terrence Steele's been really bad this year, giving up a ton of pressure. They love to take sacks.

At Tennessee, Will Levis, third in the league in pressure to sack rate. He almost 30%. He takes sacks. Jameis in Cleveland will take them too. The only one is Denver. Bo Nix is avoiding sacks. But for the most part, there is a real nice path to opponents here for Trey Hendrickson to start racking up some sacks. So 12-1, a little short for where I would want to be in mid-November

in this award. But I think there's a path there that kind of correlates well with kind of the other angles there. So Trey Hendrickson at 12 is my favorite current look. He would be kind of sprinkling some, like, longer shots down the board, but I want to shoot at the top where, you know, I think a legit out of this guy gets to 18, 20 sacks. Connor, what do you got?

Anything on the team side that caught your eye? I mean, player side? Yeah, player side. Those markets get a little bit tough. I think I generally like to take advantage of certain biases. We've been talking about the Eagles stuff and buying low on them for the last couple weeks. I think that window is kind of closed in a sense, and they've two big games coming up here. Um, obviously it's commanders and they play the Ravens, which I think will determine a lot in the awards market for them. But for this week,

I'm going to, I didn't plan this and we didn't obviously talk about notes beforehand, uh, borough plus 200 for most passing yards. I normally don't like hitting the top of the board on any of these markets, but there are three guys that are leading the league by seven touchdown passes right now. That's Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Baker Mayfield. And I think that his price is like a derivative of all those three leading and not necessarily reflecting a future situations here because I mean, Baker Mayfield has no one to throw to. Like, I mean, if you gave me, what would you line Baker Mayfield versus Joe Burrow at the rest of the season? Like it should be Joe Burrow, like minus 300, basically for most passing, the more passing touchdowns.

Like, so in my mind, Baker Mayfield is not even really a factor. So it's basically Lamar Jackson versus Joe Burrow rest of the season. Lamar Jackson is Derrick Henry. I think as you know, it gets kind of later in the year, we're probably gonna see again, more and more Derrick Henry, the Bengles their defense still all right john touched on it i still uneven i would say at best uh and they have just chase brown basically right now i think clueless we're playing maybe a little bit of factor but like they definitely don't have any derrick henry level running game here so playoff money right playoff money is uh i think no they

signed uh they said some other bum instead they signed i don't remember who it was it was like some other guy in the practice squad, which is hilarious. Again, I just think plus 200 for basically a three-man race at this point. If they blow a seven-pass touchdown lead with a team that needs to throw basically every lead of the league in pass rate right now, I'd be pretty surprised.

I think plus 200 is not a bad number there. Only one team has a pass rate over expectation above 3% as the Bengals at 6.5%. They are lapping the field a pass rate over expectation above 3% as the Bengals at like 6.5%. They are lapping the field in pass rate. So, yeah, that's a good path there. John, what do you got on the player side? Okay, I'm in the passing market too, but I'm going to go with yards.

Again, I probably would have never looked at this if you didn't bring it up. So we're going to go passing yard leader. All right, how about Kirk Cousins is 7-1 right now. So Kirk Cousins 7-1. Right now, I would say he's the essential leader. He's 36 yards off the lead right now. So 36 passing yards, that and two bucks gets you on the bus. It's a deadie, okay?

There are four quarterbacks above 25-50, which right now kind of just that little kind of delineator. You got Geno Smith, 2560, Kirk Cousins, 2634, Lamar, 2669, Burrow, 2672. They all have a buy. All right. So I was a little bit worried when I saw the Cousins buy, even Geno. Geno is this weekend. Burrow is next weekend. Cousins is the one after. But regardless, they all, everyone at the top is a buy. So I actually thought, just from reading enough of these lines,

I don't know, given Atlanta's defense is kind of whack, they're on the fast track. So granted, it's been a little bit warmer just nationwide than we're used to, but we know that can change in a blink. Like I'm in New York. It got really cold overnight. It dropped like 25 degrees. So another shot like that, all of a sudden it's cold.

So we could get some fast track stuff. And Atlanta's got the Raiders 15, the Giants 16, Carolina 18, Washington 17. Even Washington's a bit of a shootout team, right? So I don't know. That I think is a bit of a mispr team, right? So I don't know. That, I think, is a bit of a misprice. The same way they were lining up, I think that's a good way to do those exercises. When you say, well, if it's 1v1, it just feels like Cousins is in line to run with Lamar, who we know they're predicated on running, really.

And, you know, Burrow is the other main problem. But 7-1 doesn't feel like that's priced correctly. So I'm going to go Cousins 7-1 to lead the league in passing. I like it when Drake London healthy when that came back. That scare is over. They're utilizing Bijan in the passing game a whole lot more. Superstar Mooney? Awesome, yeah. Mooney's been awesome this year.

Who saw that coming, man? It was free all offseason. Not Chicago. That's for sure. Not Chicago. Yeah, dude. Dude, yeah. malpractice. It sucks. You had it. It was right under your nose.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Good call-up. No, I like it. 7-1. That's a good look. That's a good look for sure. All right, I guess killed that section. Let's jump into some games.

Let's start with the – we've got some good ones this week. Good guess, good games. Baltimore on the road in pittsburgh and that's your traditional uh bruising afc north uh with the way that these teams are playing right now let's see where we're at uh in the market we're basically baltimore um minus three it's a great spot connor to talk about profit x because i'm i'm you know i'm excited about this for people that uh are not familiar with profit x uh it is uh if you're not familiar with an exchange, exchanges are really popular in Europe. It's basically a peer-to-peer user can set the price and compete against other users,

and you get a massively discounted line compared to the VIG that you'd have to pay at a sports book. They basically take 3% from net winnings instead of like the 10%, 20% juice on a standard line. Connor, do you want to pull up the screen, share some, probably got it up here already. Yeah. Talk to us about profit. Yeah. Just real quick. I mean, we're going through these games here. Like we genuinely believe like you're getting better lines basically everywhere here. I mean, we're going to talk about, you know, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, you can get plus three right now on the Steelers at plus 110. Now there's not a ton of liquidity there right now, but there's no limits necessarily on most of it.

So as long as there's anyone willing to back at that price, you can play it. So literally what's crazy too, this is available in 42 states. So, I mean, we're just, I mean, we're going to cite these lines a bunch now going forward. I mean, it's something that we kind of didn't realize even existed until recently. And then we do have a partnership with them for you guys to get some promo money here. It's like code Betzberts is the new user code. You can get up to $300 over the next 30 days. I think it's like a playthrough, you know, promo there.

So like as you play, you get more money back. But I mean, the exchanges, they don't charge like VIG minus 110. It's like 2% or something like crazy low. So just play around with this. They have props too. But yeah, I think it's a pretty sweet platform. Pretty excited about it. And we'll be chatting about it more on the show just to get you guys more familiar. And again, again, like it's something that we actually are going to be using ourselves. So like we believe in this product. Yeah. ProfitX is around a little bit ago.

If people are familiar, but like a single state, basically, they've come back and kind of rebranded and found a way to get themselves access to 42 states. Now, the ability to not have limits is great because they don't give a rip who wins. The tag of losers pay winners is basically how this works. They're taking, again, a smaller cut off the top for your winners. Again, better than anything you'd pay juice-wise. So again, you don't like a price, you want to kind of set your own line, you could do that. And just all you need is someone else taking the other side of it. So really excited about ProfitX. I think these exchanges are really the future of it.

You can see here, yeah, you can mess around, grab two and a half, three and a half, right? You know, just all you need is someone on the other side to come in and grab some of it. So it's, it's liquid. It's awesome, John. I can see your faith. You're excited about it. Wait, what?

Wait, what? Wait, what? Yeah, this is all. I do not for all right. I don don't know not that i have to disclose stuff i am a non-paid you know participant here um i have they've not given me a sentence that's like future of gaming type stuff correct peer-to-peer is it man like especially on sides and totals like yeah like it's so critical it's so critical. It's so critical. And you know me, the first thing I'm thinking is those team totals, man.

Gosh, getting that point is such a big deal. Don't get me wrong. There's something to be said for five cents, ten cents on the spread and how that plays out over time. There's no arguing that. But, like, to the most micro viewpoint, getting a half a point on a total is like it's absurd you know wow it's massive yeah yeah all you need is someone on the other side to scoop it uh get in there early post

some stuff and see what happens people can partially match your bets like say you post for you know a couple bills someone wants to come in and just grab part of it that's fine really get the part of it yeah then the other part hangs out there for other people to grab so you don't need anyone to even match your full stake if you want to get down and you know take a whale position on something you could just put your mat what you're willing and it either gets eaten in wow that's fantastic that really is yeah i mean like connor said this is like yeah we have a lot of partnerships we share a lot of things uh this is this product is something that we definitely believe in and will be using.

And it's exciting. Again, you have to buy, it's a sweepstakes loophole, so you have to basically buy ProfitX Cash, which is a one-for-one USD coin. Right, right, right. Trades right back into USD. There's no loopholes.

They're not taking any fees for anything like that. There's no funny business there. It's just the way it works with coins. Yeah, well coins well yeah they have to be the intermediate you know yeah yeah exactly well i'm looking at these you can't of course i'm always thinking about standard lines should just be to come down to price where this kind of separates itself as the ability to get the alt total at a much better price generally books they hammer the snot out of these all uh lines like well i mean again you were hurt i didn't mean to trash against the spread there i guess there are people that make a lot of money against it it's a very short market it's very difficult

yeah with the ability to move at a point without sacrificing that same price correct that you know that's a window of opportunity that you really can't find much else no i mean like you're moving under i mean this game total is at 48 right and that's a 47 and a half there's one but it's you're paying the price on it and that's those are key numbers on the total side you can see here you can get under and get down to 46 and a half and you're basically paying the same price that you're paying for 48 and a half or 48 and other spots. So that's, it matters a ton.

Yeah. It matters. So yeah, we're, we're excited about this. So yeah, if you have any questions, reach out to us again.

There's an app and you can go to, you know, profit X.co web-based. Again, if you have questions, let us know about, you know, get company name,

BetSperts, B E T S P E R T S. I'll get you a $300 bonus there to play through. Yeah, great way to check it out and get best prices there. But yeah, back to the game here. Yes, send me a link. Send me a link, man. Yeah, for sure.

My vision's not great. If I really wanted to read that whole thing, I would have been like up on the screen just squinting the hell out of it. So I want to go dig into that properly. Well, I do. Listen, I have these bets are coming up this weekend. Like I'm not going to be that.

You know, we hear people all the time. It's funny to me at first, it sounded kind of cheesy, but it's one of the one of the truths right now. As these companies are competing for your business, you listen to them,

listen to them. They're letting, you know, I know it's all it can be a saturation. When there were promos, there were offers there, you know, competition is healthy. were offers there you know competition is healthy competition generally you know benefits the consumer which is a good thing you know i know work the average american here's a little extra work and like brain power and all of a sudden

they're like turn off yeah yeah no a thousand percent and then peer-to-peer is really i think what we've all been wanting and hoping for at a certain point right like anything they can reduce the price and just have someone grabbing the other side and just like hey i like this side you like that side why don't we bet it in a safe regulated way versus you know uh having to like you know venmo each other cash we're gonna have someone kind of regulate it you know uh you could do this all over the place just have someone scoop your action so it's fantastic yeah stoked for it uh all right baltimore pittsburgh i went on ed fang's show last week and made a case for pittsburgh to miss the playoffs uh that didn't work because they uh continue to win football

games uh won again in dc uh i just i honestly i've struggled to move off my priors with this team connor i i um i'm still not sure that they're very good but it's hard to argue against how they're playing russ without a doubt is balling out here talk to me about raven steelers yeah i i think pittsburgh kind of proved last week that if they fall behind they can kind of figure things out they fell behind by 10 climbed back but like it wasn't through passing the ball a ton it was just weird inefficient running and like they did have a couple of big plays um i mean still only 28 pass attempts kind of has me worried here a little bit because we know they're going to go run heavy the ravens run defense is like you know elite and basically every metric that you want to look at uh and you

know i mean the sealers are just going to do that anyways it it seems like. I doubt they're going to go past every year, which is the Ravens' weakness right now. Their secondary hasn't really been playing all that well. And we've seen them struggle at times against teams that are able to pass the ball. So, like, that for me is a big issue. And then Lamar Jackson, I mean, just been absolutely cooking right now, you know, through the air.

Deontay Johnson probably playing a lot more this week, they said. Keaton Mitchell still getting healthier. Like, I don't, again, he's probably more of a change of pace guy, but he's, you know, absolutely electric when he's fully healthy. Uh, like this offense that has already been really good is somehow trending up like even more, you know, which is pretty crazy to say. So, uh, I'm, I'm, I want to buy into Baltimore here. The spreads three, like Pittsburgh has continuously proven me wrong but i just like i can't get away from baltimore being the significantly better side than side here connor's saying there john is i think it's important like pittsburgh minus 8.6 percent

pass rate over expectation second lowest in the league they love to run the football how much do they deviate from deviate from that against ravens where we know that like you can go at them you can throw these moon balls with success and that's kind of what Russ does well here. What are your thoughts on this matchup? To me, that's the story on the Ravens side. Listen, I love Lamar. They look great. We're finally

seeing the kind of mock and stuff we were hoping for. The defensive side is kind of a mess. Again, you're really more of the expert here, but from the tape and the studying I've done, we know we generally don't want to be on the outliers. And you get a ton of that. You get a ton of that from Baltimore. Listen, we know when you have the interior D to stop the run and the prolific offense, you kind of a tendency to turn yourself into a pass funnel. Like that's

understood. So when you're looking at it through that lens, you have to be careful of totals, right? A team that's a pass funnel will allow a lot of completions. They may even allow a lot of yards, right? That's kind of a thing. My problem here is it's beyond that. It's the frequency stuff. Baltimore, bottom five in EPA per dropback, 102-opposer passer rating, more than 12 yards per reception.

They're dead last in 20-yard completions. That number's at 47. 22 passing touchdowns. I mean, and then to the bottom three in sack rate, bottom three in EPA against the slot. So you see a lot of this. There's no pressure. They're playing a lot of preventative stuff. But you need to be able to cover underneath. You can't just say, oh, we're going to like drop back. So what the Ravens are kind of admitting to us stylistically is they're going to outscore everybody.

Does that work? At least when you have Lamar Jackson, yes, it works a lot of the time. The thing is, this deal with defense is pretty legit. And I like the last part with the stealer offense would be, yeah, for me, listen, Wilson is not going to be a game breaker. He is a stabilizing force. I think you have to keep in mind they scored 26 points in each of the last three, something that we did once with Justin Fields.

Not to get my leather helmet out, but the rush rate is sustainable, even in today's game. When you're able to complement it with the play action pass the way they do, I think they're at a 35% play action with wilson again people you got to be careful season long stats not really worth much when we're talking about the disparity in style between wilson and fields so looking at that we're seeing again this kind of boomer ball tomlin is in all his glory right now because Because again, you're going to allow him to isolate these advantageous matchups on the outside.

He's happy to smash the ball in three and a half and a cloud of dust over and over again. Because you'll get the leak routes with Warren while he's setting up those play action balls. I'm actually surprised. I think Pittsburgh could win this one outright. And I definitely think I like the three and a half. I've been really reticent against the spread, like I mentioned.

I'd probably just bet Pittsburgh to go over 21 points or 22 and call it a day there. Baltimore is not stopping anybody. Yeah, that's a problem in Kyle Hamilton. We're getting Wednesday as we record, you know, sprained ankle. You missed a good chunk of that game last week against the Bengals. So interested to see his status this week because that matters quite a bit because the rest of the guys in the back half, they have not trusted.

They pulled and straight-up benched Marcus Williams a couple games ago, had to force him back in. They benched Eddie Jackson last week and didn't play him. So now they might have a scenario where they have to play. Both their starting safeties are going to be guys that they've benched within the last three weeks Entirely for a game I think my favorite play is just George Pickens' longest reception over in this game

I don't even know how you make it for me Where I'm like, I don't know What would you have to say, 23.5 maybe? So they've been bumping him up He was routinely 21.5 Last week he was 25.5 That's a lot It's a lot, but he went over That's a lot. It's a lot. It's a lot.

But he went over. That's a lot. A lot. Yeah. Would you go 26? I don't know if I go 26. I know I didn't take it last week, but I, you know, I sure wanted to. Also, I think you're going to have a pathway to, it's not posted yet.

Probably Friar Muth receptions, total receptions, right? Because again, you could lean into those stylistics from Baltimore all the time. I mean, they literally telegraph. And, again, if you're going to combine 25% too high with 25% man, it means there is a lot of overlap with man press underneath too high up top. You leave the middle open. That's why that completion rate is spiked over the middle against the Ravens. I mean, again, it's very elementary, which shouldn't be the case because this is where coaches are supposed to step in.

And when it's like, well, I got this like fat blowhard over here, like telling me what I'm going to do this weekend. I probably should adjust and go another direction. They haven't done that yet. So I'd be looking for, again, long pickings, Friar Muth receptions, and then Pittsburgh to go to 21 points. And the loss of Hamilton would definitely impact the Frymuth play as well. That would be a helpful angle there too, for sure.

Yeah, yeah, anything underneath. I think they get it anyway, but yeah, I'm with you for sure. Yeah, we'll have to watch that news here. Obviously, he's impactful. Next is a team we spent a lot of time talking about here in the future section. The Bengals are on the road in L.A. against the Chargers. This game got booted to the Sunday night spot, which is awesome. Chargers, one and a half points.

Favorites basically across the board total 47 and a half 48 shop that around again and just go to profit x uh and get a cheaper number for sure you can probably get 46 and a half for uh the decent price too that'd be the right side if you want to chase the over or bump it all the way up to uh 48 and a 49 if you want here. Were you expected? Hardball to coach his face off, John. That's what he's about. That's what he's always done. I think they have exceeded expectations a little bit. Herbert's playing good ball, though. They've been letting him cook.

We've seen a spike in pass rate over expectation from them. As of late, they went super heavy last week against Tennessee and ran the ball. But, again, the fact that they're one of these teams that I find I am really bullish on them long-term. They're harder to handicap because what they do schematically on both sides of the ball changes a ton. They've started to really shift defensively as well.

They're starting to use a lot of single linebacker and base hybrid nickel three safety stuff where they're, you know, where they're using a lot of like derwin james up in the box instead of using a couple of backers it's you know again i like teams that are dynamic based off of what their opponents are telling them versus this is what we do and this is how we're gonna you know beat you that doesn't always work when you get to playoff level stuff so i'm excited about this game i think it's a good one to be flexed here bangles chargers john what do you think yeah i hate taking l's man

because sometimes they're so obvious like i hate taking procedural l's you mentioned it what do i what do i think is important like you pull the 12 gauge army john what's important i would say probably the mind meld between quality quarterbacking and good coaching and that's here and i short sold it even even at a bar. And that's where I made the mistake. I'm not saying everybody should have been bullish with the information we had on the Chargers offense coming into the season. But given all the low bars, I should have been over it because they do the things I believe in. The thing that's kind of caught me, yeah, I've noticed the shift into that very heavy zone coverage last month. But I'm worried about the run game.

Like what? They came out, they were so explosive, they weren't throwing. You so astutely called out the, not just the uptick in the pass game, but also the quality as well. The thing that's really irked me, I mean, there is no denying right now, the rush stuff the last month on the offensive side is just falling off the page. I mean, maybe we fell in love with Dobbins a little bit too soon.

Now they're going to be hoping for like the Edwards revival. Check it out, last four games, 3.7 yards per rush, just one yard before contact per rush, a 33% success rate, and only 5% explosive rush rate. Those are all like in the bottom five. It's going to be very hard. It's very hard to get it done like that, right? We mentioned Cincy.

Where do we bucket the charges, right? If my theory of the case was, well, Bengals get it done against kind of bad offenses, I don't know where to put the charges. So I'm going to sit on the fence on this one. Sometimes I say the best lean is up against a wall with your money safely in your wallet. So I'm going to kind of take the back door on this one. But that would be my question for you guys, right? If we believe that the Chargers are a good offense

and maybe they handle the Bengals, if we don't think they're a good offense, they've struggled to stop the run as well. If they have to sacrifice with the man up, they're going to get beat long. So I don't know. You can see this going anyway. Yeah, Colin, I've pushed back a little bit on the Chargers.

Defensively, the last couple of weeks weeks just in terms of, I think, where their metrics are versus what I think the actual unit is. And you've seen it in terms of DVOA tracks, strength of schedule against. They've played the easiest strength of schedule on the defensive side. So the quality of offensive opponents have been below average. Since he is not that, we have to see if we have Orlando Brown, if we have T. Higgins in this matchup. It's still healthy Burrow can do a lot of things here.

I know we've been looking at, you know, I've been waiting for Dobbins-Unders from you because it does feel like he's kind of fallen off a cliff, and now maybe we missed the mark now that Gus Buss got in. But what are your thoughts on this matchup? I had it written down last week, and I'm a coward. I didn't play it. I just couldn't believe it.

Um, this, this game in particular is really interesting because the, like the Bengals defense has not really played all that well. And I like run defense or pass defense. And I think that that's an issue because the chargers haven't been able to run the ball like at all. Again, like you guys mentioned for the last like month ish. I mean, it's almost like a guy coming off Achilles is not going to last an entire season seeing 15 to 20 carries. Yeah, who could have thought that, right? But now we're at this point. Gus Edwards came back, played pretty well.

And I think, again, since he – like they basically let everyone run on them, you know, for the most part. And the offense and like the Chargers kind of like instead of sticking their head into the ground and just being like, okay, we're just only going to run the ball no matter what they skewed more pass heavy. And that's, I think is actually going to help them open up the run a little bit more even in some ways. So like, I have no concerns about the Chargers moving the ball here and like

scoring on the Bengals. I think my biggest questions come into the Bengal side here where I've like, is chase Brown going to be, you know, basically just be awesome again in the running game. And if he can't, then it just makes the Bengals very one-dimensional, which can be fine. Joe Burrow can lead 40 points, you know, that's totally fine. But this Chargers defense

is continuously again, outperform, but we expect for them now the schedule bit scheduling, but you mentioned is pretty important, I think, but, uh, how, like how much does that come into play? Are the Chargers just an average defense? Are they a fringe top 10 defense or are they like, you know, because right now their metrics say that they're like a top two defense basically, which is probably not true, but like how, where are they actually on that list? I'm pretty confident the bangles are a bad defense on the other side and a good offense. Whereas the chargers, you know, again, simplistically are a pretty good offense and I think a pretty good defense. So I'm just curious to see how that plays out. If I had to pick a line, I'd probably actually

pick the chargers at minus one and a half minus one Oh three only on profit X. I think it's kind of interesting. I know we are buying bangles in the future. Um, but I don't know. I, I, like, I kind of like the chargers, the chargers has got that Tomlin Steelers vibe where they just, they're gritty, they win games and they find unique ways to do it. Like Jesse Minter, like you mentioned a little bit more, um know multi-dimensional i think you know proving to to have learned a lot i don't know it's just like good coaching it's kind of fun it is i i love that i feel bullish about an organization when that's what we see right it's not like here's what we do every week this is what we play it's like no we're going to adapt you're like oh we saw this three

week spike in uh pass rate and then last week against tennessee they're going to adapt you're like oh we saw this three-week spike in uh pass rate and then last week against tennessee they're like yeah yeah you know we're just gonna we're gonna run the ball all game long um because you're gonna make you stop it and you can't so um the adaptability piece i'm always really encouraged by because it just makes me think that the coaches are thinking thoughtfully through the game plan uh and considering who's across from them which i think matters a lot bangles are in a good spot for a tease, if that's your thing. One and a half, we can go through the three and the seven. You can get them on the other side at eight and a half.

Or seven and a half, that's appealing to me. But straight up, I'm probably going to just watch it. I'll probably bet Diane Henley over eight and a half tackles in that game because he's a baller. So, yeah, but that's probably it for me in that spot um next bell the ball probably uh kc on the road in buffalo this was kc minus one and look ahead window reopened on sunday night buffalo minus one early actions pushed it out to two and a half basically where we're at across the board 45 and a half 46 is the total um so kind of dancing

around some key numbers there if that's your thing there too uh again these teams have given us some of the best football games on earth over the last four or five years which is going to happen we have this matchup of quarterback which is fantastic um john what do we do here we have the you know the very easy handicap and you just go all right you, you give me Patrick Mahomes in points, 12, one-on-one all time against the spread as a dog was in the spot last year. Everyone keeps telling us that. And then it's the two and a half basically aren't there. We have a couple of twos out there, but like it's still holding out

pretty strong thoughts on this matchup. I mean, I think Buffalo is probably the better team coming in. I'd like to know if Cooper is going to play or not. Yeah. He got practice in a limited fashion today. I just checked that report. That, again, does not mean much right now. And this is my argument for Buffalo, and, again,

it's really predicated on Cooper, but it's without him needing to be this, like, superstar wide receiver one. The thing with Buffalo is they have the ability to beat you in a number of ways. It's, again, when you have Josh Allen being able to go hero ball, listen, that's part of it. So what? You know, you have to deal with that. That's part of it, right?

He lowers his shoulder and starts helicopter diving everywhere. You have to deal with him. He's very hard to stop three times for 10 yards bottom line the thing with cooper is he fits so perfectly into that x1 kind of wide receiver 1x archetype that they need which then pushes everyone back down the line where if you tell me like it's so look coleman one shakir two is trash but cooper one one is like, oh, Cooper's a legit one. Oh, wow, now Keanu Coleman is like a legit flanking number two.

And all of a sudden, that makes Shakir like a top-tier underneath slot guy, which takes enough attention with James Cook in the backfield off of Kincaid, who is kind of a flawed player, but will operate in space. All of a sudden, for me, Cooper just everything down the

line like butterfly effect for me i was like oh man arrows up for buffalo cooper goes down for two games what did alan's response oh who cares 30 points 30 points so yeah i think this chief's team is a bit over their skis i think the street comes to an end this time. But to your point with bones and the points, who's to say it's not a one-point game, right? I'm just stammering and mumbling and stumbling there. Do they find a way? I know! Oh, man! Dude!

Half of my remaining survivor pool had the Chiefs last weekend and me and my kids were just puking because we went from like, we're going to Disneyland to like, we can watch videos on YouTube of Disneyland. Maybe Disneyland or

We can watch Disney Plus. Disney Plus. We went from Disneyland to Disney Plus. Connor, this is going to be a good one. This is maybe one of those games we've talked about a few times this year we're like man we just we weren't in the space uh we just like light ball just turn this game on sunday be like yeah let's let it go you know get some wings you get a fucking shit

ton of ranch uh you can have yourself a field day because i know you love that stuff uh but no we have to actually handicap it what are your thoughts on it yeah the more ranch the better baby uh no but i think that this is a nasty. This one is funny because, you know, you mentioned it actually. And this actually stuck in my mind, too. It was like, Mahomes is a dog against Buffalo. Like, why isn't that an auto bet? Guess what?

In the regular season, his record is against Buffalo. I would not have guessed this. It's one in three. One in three in the regular season, three in the postseason, and that's why it sticks in our minds is because in the most impactful moments, he gets it done in the playoffs,

and they've always found a way to get it done. In the regular season, literally one in three. I'm like, look at this. I'm like, is this right? Like, look through all the game logs. I'm like, all right, well. Right now I'm thinking, is that right? Yeah, exactly, exactly.

Very strange. But that being said, like for my actual game handicap itself, I worry a little bit about this Buffalo offense if they don't have Amari Cooper. John already talked about the importance of that. And that's because the Chiefs run defense has been awesome. Like really, really, really good. And we know that Buffalo, like a couple of other teams that we see, like loves to lean on their running game.

And like it just makes, it allows Josh Allen to not have to do Josh Allen things, which can present some highs could also present some pretty wild lows from time to time. And I think that that's, they try, they like to eliminate that, but against the chiefs, like,

I don't know if they're going to be able to run the ball consistently and well enough chiefs long. I think it's like third and rushing success rate, three yards per carry to opposing running backs. So again, like it's not that the bills can't succeed they can but go past every year but kincaid is tbd again like there are some questions with this pass catching group if it's just khalil shakir out there i mean that's tough for me you know again like and then so on the other side of the ball

i think that the chiefs probably have success passing the ball. DeAndre Hopkins is kind of finding his way. Travis Kelsey, again, is just like basically chain moving at this point. And then Xavier Worthy continues to not really earn targets but be a viable piece of stretching downfield. So I guess I have to bet – I like the Chiefs here. I have to bet them, I think, based on my game analysis. But more than just a simplistic, like, based on my game analysis, but like, you know, more than just a simplistic,

like bet my homes is a dog. Like, I don't know. I think the chiefs are probably the right side, at least for me. Yeah. It's tough. It is tough.

It's a tough one. Um, cause again, you're either way, you're also betting against Josh Allen or my homes either way. And that's, both of those are terrifying situations. Cause they are,

you know, probably the two best in the game at the most important position so um yeah i'm gonna do my best to get a lot of other late window action and maybe just try to fanboy this one um you know there definitely will be some angles uh to be had in the prop streets for sure and again as you guys both touched on injury piece here is pretty massive in terms of you know what happens with cooper what's up with you know dalton kinkade all those things matter a ton. All right, we'll talk quickly about the Thursday night.

I won't put it in the back in case we're terribly off on our handicap. No one has to slide through it. They can just skip this here. You're listening to this on Friday. Whatever we're about to say is what happens, so you don't have to worry about it. Let's talk here about the Commanders and Eagles. Eagles, 3.5-point favorites, 40 a half is the total for the most part again profit x great prices especially if

you like that total uh saving a ton of money there uh good stuff i mean we've talked touched on the commanders and connor you went out you know decided you want to tweet talk shit about the commanders and their strength of schedule and uh you know the uh the commies came at you real hard pushing back But it's true. They haven't whooped up on anybody really good, and it doesn't mean that they're not a good football team, but a challenge here. And what's really impactful with kind of what's going on with Dallas,

we know where the Giants' lot in life is, unfortunately, this is kind of a really important divisional game at this point, two of these meetings still to go here on Commanders and Eagles. So what are your thoughts here, Connor? It's one of those matchups that obviously I think dictates the division going forward. Interestingly, on the Washington defensive side, they've done a better job of getting pressure, which has impacted Jalen Hurts a lot, again, throughout the season. Dante Fowler was a top three pick and nothing for like a decade and is absolutely in his bag he's got like

nine sacks um a ton of price point like 40 of the snaps and the guy is like second league in snaps you know i don't late bloomer um when you waited until he's you know in his 30s to start actually getting it done it's crazy oh that's crazy um yeah it's uh one of those things where um yeah it's like he um like i don't know like i think that they should be able to shred the man defense uh though that's the other like kind of component is like aj brown against man is i mean that's that's pretty nice and i think that saquon has a ton of success on the ground our guys stew monotone put that out uh saquon rushing overyard so like i expect philly to control control the game offensively to be able to take big shots deep

it's not going to always be pretty with the pressure washington brings and then the other side is philly defense i mean they're playing against a lot of bad teams but they they play pretty well against cincy like since the buy they've just been playing like lockdown d run defense has been great pass evens has been great and again the commanders have played against the bears and the Steelers. Jay Daniels in those games, 53% and 50% completion rate. He's still good. He's still playing awesome.

Don't clip me on that. You know, he's playing well. But, yeah, I mean, I just worry. So give me the Eagles in this spot here. Yeah. Where you at here, John? Yeah, same. Right now it's, you know, I have Eagles kind of nose-to-nose with Detroit for best teams in the league right now.

Philly five in a row off the bye. That really hit it, right? Sometimes a bye is perfectly timed for teams. They were injured in the wide receiver room. I mean, I hate it because it was unreported. I can't speak from the tape alone. Hurts looked like he was missing a step in the beginning of the year. I was not the only person to call this out. They were talking about it in

the broadcast. People were talking about it on Twitter. He was missing a little bit. We were getting worried if maybe the fantasy streets or maybe the Russian game was going to take a big notch down. That by came, man, they went wheels up. But it's also really the defense has gone ballistic. And remember, the Bengals are in there too. But it's also really the defense has gone ballistic. And remember, the Bengals are in there too. So, you know, there's always the question of competition when you look at last four, Giants, Bengals, Jacksonville, Dallas. So there is a weak spot.

Again, the Bengals good, but they're doing everything right now. I mean, the tackling is insane. The rush defense has been insane. They're covering. They're really doing everything. They're getting pressure without blitzing. Also something that I think it's funny, you know, if you don't have the expertise that Ryan has with the defense,

sometimes we can make deductions from that, right? If you get a lot of pressure without sending the blitz, you get an idea of interior pressure, right, of havoc being created. And that's really a good sign for a defense to get pressure without sending extra men, again, to get the 9.5% sack rate on the year with only a 13% blitz rate. They're probably one of the only teams to be able to see that. Washington, I think you nailed it, Connor, man. It's competition-based.

Jaden Daniels is excellent. He's going to be even better than that. But right now, hashtag NFL is very hard. The longer this goes for him, the harder it gets because the more the book is out. So when he faces these really good defenses, I think that's where the bottom could get exposed. Again, Washington, when a rookie QB is not a 30-point team, that's fine. That's a good normal thing.

Rookies don't normally captain 30-point offenses. So we should have known it was a bit overskies, but again, the potential is arrow up. I think Washington meets its match, though I will be watching for the defense. You mentioned our boy Stewie, my guy, if you're listening, you know, I love you, man. That's where I think this game is going to be told in the trenches,

where the Philly defense has been great in the interior, stopping the run, something Washington needs to do to succeed. The Washington run defense has been very bad. Success rate, yards per rush before and after contact per rush, plus the double-digit explosive rush rate allowed. That defensive unit against the rush, probably bottom five. So I think Barkley goes nuts, and I think Philadelphia gets it done. Yeah, they lost Jonathan Allen, and that hurt,

and it will start to add up a little bit. Maybe Bobby Wagner finally losing a little bit of that first step, and it could be impactful too. But, yeah, I would lean Eagles here as well. I don't have a current position, but I like Stu's look going back to the well on Saquon, I think, and definitely Cook here. Yeah, but I think it's going to be an interesting football game. It matters a ton.

Also, we've had some stingers in the Island game, so nice getting an important divisional game in that window here with the Commanders and Eagles. Love you, man. John, you are a rock star. Again, so appreciate your time. Again, screw that commercial. You're an actual rock star. Billy Idol is not a popping up here. You're a rock star.

Tell everyone where they can find all your stuff. I'm doing the lip for people in case you didn't know. Mo, mo, mo. Thank you so much. You can follow me at JohnMegaza, J-O-H-N-L-A-G H-E-Z-Z-A. I do the speculator column for The Athletic. I write the daily betting newsletter for Matthew Barry. And then you can check out my sub stack. I have just a lot of data.

It's very hard to find this stuff formatted, you know, conditionally formatted and easily digestible all in one spot. So I just normally tell people, listen, man, it's $2 a week because I know I can't compete with all the big boys, but man, how much time of yours is worth $2 a week? That's what I tell people. If you spend any amount of time

on this at all, being able to, again, we were talking about streamlining data, becoming efficient, that stuff matters, okay? That stuff matters whether you get it from here, becoming efficient. That stuff matters. Okay. That stuff matters. Whether you get it from here or anywhere else, that stuff matters. So guys, thank you so, so much, man.

That was just an absolute blast. I hope I didn't chew your ears off too much. I love it. No, you killed it. It was awesome. Everyone check that out. Go to find John on Twitter. Find that sub stack again, two bucks.

Make that, you know, succinct your process. Again, it's nice, easy, digestible. Does baseball too. So if you're grinding baseball, I mean, dude, I'm out of those streets. But I know without a doubt that no one in the space is... No, the baseball stuff, nobody

can talk about baseball stuff. Yeah, dude, John does not mess around. So check that out. Find him on Twitter and check out that stuff. So come back on Friday. Hang out with Connor, myself, John Hyslop. Check out ProfitX. Again, BetSports is the promo code. Check that out find them on twitter check out that stuff so uh come back on friday hang out with connor myself john hyslop uh check out profit x again bets versus the promo code check that out reach out if you have any questions we'll take here for you there so for connor and john i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time thanks everybody