Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 11 NFL BETTING GUIDE: Best BETS, Odds & Predictions

Episode Date: November 16, 2023

Welcome to the ultimate Week 11 NFL Betting Guide, where we dive deep into the most exciting matchups, including in-depth analysis of the Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, and more! Our video is packed with expert NFL predictions, the latest odds, and top betting strategies to enhance your NFL betting game. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, our guide provides valuable insights to help you make well-informed betting decisions for this week's games.Join our community for the best in NFL betting! Don't forget to subscribe for weekly insights, and share your own predictions and strategies in the comments below. Get ready to place your bets with confidence by watching our comprehensive guide for NFL Week 11 betting!Timestamps: 0:00 Intro4:09 2023 NFL Futures Bets8:23 Steelers vs. Browns Best Bets15:30 Week 11 NFL Best Bets - Cardinals vs. Texans23:53 Chargers vs. Packers NFL Betting Preview29:36 Eagles vs. Chiefs Week 11 NFL Betting Odds & Picks35:25 Bengals vs. Ravens Week 11 NFL Predictions42:16 Bonus Week 11 NFL Bets52:24 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by my friends to talk about sides and totals, best matchups here in the week 11 NFL Slates. Joining here as always, Connor Allen. Connor, technical difficulties on my end today. You don't have to look at my face so that you just get this lovely picture of me. I'm sorry. I look really good today. I just need you to know that. Yeah, no, it's interesting because I enjoy seeing your facial expressions during mid-show because I think one of me or Clark will say something and you know I think we all like kind of make faces at each other occasionally and so I definitely will miss that aspect of it um but I don't know I think this is a pretty sharp photo so uh it definitely feels a little weird but but I could probably get used to it. This is my VR photo. I was thinking VR, who just could not get over the fact that I had a pixelation in my Twitter bio photo,

and he needed me to update. It was just a thing. I can't imagine being so obsessed about my Twitter bio photo, but VR was for a little bit, and I upgraded this for him. So this is, this always reminds me of me having to yell to my wife. Can you come please take a picture of me? Another grown man is not happy with my current picture. So here we are. Sharp Clark, you got a nice hat on today, bud. Yeah. Yeah. Pulled out, pulled out the week. Bill's let me down for, for a couple of teaser legs on Monday night. That was very disappointing,

but overall it was good. I'm just going to get used to the unnerving feeling of you not blinking. That's true. Yeah. My computer sounds like it's on an airplane tarmac and it's about to take off. And yeah, I just don't want to impact the quality of the show. The audio is okay. We're going to go audio only.

If you're hanging out on YouTube, sorry, you have to look at me staring at you continuously. If you're enjoying this via podcast, then it's fine. It's like nothing even happened. So if you're hanging out with us on YouTube, we appreciate it. This is where we'll be every Wednesday, 4 p.m. Eastern. Hit the thumbs up, hit subscribe, all those things gone a long way in helping us podcast in your feed

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Because NFL seasons go into the early February with playoffs and Super Bowl. We're betting NBA as well. We have a team that's firing. Kevin O'Brien's doing an awesome job. We've got some other people, just that NBA chat's popping all the time. If you're playing any of the pick-em games,

prize picks, underdog, vivid picks, we have channels there as well. Again, 444.com, promo code BETTS50 for an additional 50% off of the betting sub. Come check it out. Yeah, I'm really excited. Last week was weird. Some really weird outcomes.

Some, again, you have all these late finishes with field goals at the end of the game and interested to see how it shapes futures markets, looking at anything on that side in terms of, like I'm enamored with the defensive player of the year market. Connor, is there anything that's catching your eye that you're watching in terms of markets this week, dynamics, anything that you want to track over the next couple of weeks? What market has your eye in terms of futures? Yeah, I think that's a tough one here because we did get down some mid-season futures, we bet. Giants have the worst regular season record, and I think it's pretty clear now that they are trying to lock into that,

locking in Tommy DeVito there as a starting quarterback. I think he's been the worst quarterback in the league by a pretty wide margin, and so he just doesn't have a lot around him either. And like, I think Dable is a good coach, but there's only so much you can do when like literally his entire team is injured and they were already super thin as is. I know Clark talks about that early. So I don't know what the number is on that right now, but you know, I would still like that as well. Overall though, I think kind of buying, potentially buying low and Mike McDaniel is interesting, but it's tough. I feel like with the Texans, and I was thinking about this last night, is that the Coach of the Year award with D'Amico Ryans feels a lot like Brian D'Abel last year,

where he has a team that had very low expectations. They had very, you know, low hype around them. And now they're on the fringe of potentially making the playoffs uh you know going forward if they keep winning so i think plus 300 there if maybe you've taken some action on mcdaniel like myself or you know dan campbell early season would be a great hedge because i don't know if they're going to win like 10 plus games but i mean they're they're an incredible story so far you know dan campbell stuff's interesting clark too because the expectation is relatively high to start the year right they're favored to win the division he was in the mix towards the tail end last year and we know last year too was very much a exceeding expectations award because sirianni i mean it's really hard to

argue that sirianni did not deserve that award um you know a couple again that kind of shows you how thin these markets can be and how they can be so impacted by recency bias late in the season and what happened there. But like, what do we do with the coach of the year? We're like Dan Campbell, they're going to win 14 games. You probably, he probably gets it if that happens. But yeah, I mean, I'm interested in D'Amico Ryans and or some other stuff too. I mean like the defensive player of the year,

one is the one I keep going back to, but yeah. What else has your, your attention? Your, your Browns one, man, your Browns, your Browns to miss the playoffs rollercoaster in the last, say, 48 hours or so. Yeah, big loss on that one when they beat the Ravens somehow in that game, and then Deshaun Watson gets hurt for the year, so now it's kind of back alive. Although, you know, with their relative ease of schedule and how good the defense is playing, like, I'm still, you know, still clutching that pretty tight. I wouldn't i wouldn't add to the position although i do think it's

i think it's being generous right now in terms of projecting the browns to make the playoffs but um because i already have that position i'm not looking to add to it um on coach of the year real quick just the lions schedule down the stretch looks fairly manageable and you know what we're seeing in sort of the media reactions and Twitter reactions is just how results oriented everybody is, and especially how recency bias influences those perceptions. And so, you know, I think the Texans might have a tough final stretch. And I just think that a team that loses its last few games, like that there's so much emphasis on recency that I think if the Lions close, close the season strong, that really boosts Dan Campbell's resume. And Mike McDaniel has a tough stretch as well down the stretch for Miami.

So I think that's something to consider when you're betting awards markets. Yeah, recency bias is really strong. I do think if it's something that you want to get into, I do think having and trying to be smart in developing a portfolio at times and looking for opportunities to buy uh you know at the top of things uh is the right position to try to get into now as we start to kind of see these markets develop i mean like the comeback player of the year one is is really wild as well with like the whole demar hanlon thing like active last week didn't really do anything um

comes and gets it i guess it gets a tackle um but like what happens there it's the second time he's been active um and come back is so nebulous like what are you coming back from like is josh dobbs what's he coming back from um yeah it just is a really really bizarre award so yeah i like to kind of talk about those at the top of every show as we move forward here but let's jump into our our games here this week we have some uh some interesting ones we'll get started with that one with the news obviously pittsburgh and cleveland a ton of movement on the side in total here with the deshaun watson news today on wednesday morning this was five and a half on cleveland side in the look ahead market down to four and a half reopened at cleveland minus four and then with watson out it dipped to like cleveland minus

two and a half on the first wave it's now like a pick them there are ones on either side depending on where you want to get down totals massively plummeted as well down from 30 and a half to 33 and a half again dorian thompson robinson at quarterback over pj walker that did not go so well in the one start against Baltimore early this season. Where are we at now here, Connor? Now this is basically a pick with Pittsburgh and Cleveland. It's crazy because I think the Steelers are massive frauds here overall. I mean, they're 6-3 right now.

They have a negative 26-point differential, rank 26th in points scored, 28th in yards, 24th in offensive EPA per play. The key is they're 6-0 in one-score games. And if we look at the last time these two teams met, it was, I think, 26 to 22 final score here. Two of their touchdowns were defensive, and the other one was a 71-yard catch and run by George Pickens where he had an awesome play. He's a good player.

He's just not very consistent. And he obviously had a highlight real moment there to score a touchdown for them. So basically the majority of their points came on, on, you know, those plays there. And I don't think that that's really consistent. The total in this game is 33 and a half. This is the second lowest total in the last 10 years. The only other one was the Cleveland saints game where there was 40 plus mile per hour winds. And there's no, like, I mean, at least I haven't seen no weather that's going to like crazily impact this year. So it's literally just two bad offenses playing against Cleveland defense that I think is really, really strong in a Steelers defense that, uh, you know, has its moments here and

there. So I go back and forth on this one, honestly, because I don't think DTR is very good. I think this Browns defense is awesome. And the other hand, I want to fade the Steelers. I'm just not really sure this is the spot to do it here. Um, I don't know. I'm curious to your Clark, your opinion, because I feel like this, I want to fade the Steelers. I'm just not really sure this is the spot to do it here. I don't know. I'm curious to hear, Clark, your opinion, because I feel like this,

I was really interested in the Browns before Deshaun Watson was out. And I'm glad that I did not lock that in, obviously, given the news. Yeah, it's the same for me. This was shaping up to be a play on the Browns this week because Pittsburgh has been slowly losing pieces on defense. They lost Quan Alexander to the IR two weeks ago.

This week, they lost another linebacker in Cole Holcomb. Minkah Fitzpatrick is questionable. He missed last week and the week before. You know, these guys matter for Steelers defense that sure it has TJ Watt, but even TJ Watt hasn't really been having the same impact on these games that he has in years past.

You know, Cam Hayward is back. That's good. But this is a defense that I think is a little bit overrated overall, especially with those injuries. And then on the other side of the ball, you know, Deshaun Watson really did kind of put it together a little bit in that second half, like enough to show that he can move the ball, you know, against a good defense. He wasn't fantastic by any means, but he was kind of showing some improvement, which I think is what Browns fans have been looking for. But without Deshaun Watson, I think this is a massive downgrade.

I mean, Dorian Thompson Robinson was really terrible in his first start. And I don't college scout, so I don't have a strong opinion on him. But someone that I trust in the college space thinks he's absolutely terrible. And if you don't have a quarterback, it's really tough to win in a tough game like this. But the thing is, if that one game sample was misleading and if he's, you know, been showing things up in practice and really been put things together, they obviously trust him over PJ Walker.

Then I think this could be like a runaway victory for the Browns. So I'm not, I'm not looking to tease this game. If, if one side gets to be a one and a half, two and a half point underdog, this is a complete pass for me, a complete uncertainty pass.

I don't think the range of outcomes skews towards one side more heavily this is just i'm excited i'm having fun watching the betters fight over it and i'm excited to see where it goes but i'm not participating myself even the move that we had looked like we were stable at two and a half and then you know within the last hour or so it's it took some more money uh pittsburgh money so yeah it's it's just one of those spots where it's like we want to find opportunities to fade pittsburgh but they're not gonna give it to us this week because they're six and three they've been outgained by their opponents in every game as you mentioned like they are are losing key starters on the defensive side every week none of it matters uh they i mean like the whole premise of this like ben but don but don't break defense stuff, I think is garbage.

But they've allowed the fifth most yards per drive this season. They've been fantastic defensively in the red zone. They've allowed the fourth lowest touchdown rate on red zone drives. So, like, you know, that's one way to get it done. You know, if you think that you're so good, then why don't you tighten them up on, like, the 20s? I don't know. Maybe try that.

But, yeah, they just seem to have a recipe that works and this is an interesting spot too where like hey we didn't even talk about mike tomlin and the coach of the year discussion there quickly it's like they're about to be seven and three i mean stuff's going on in cleveland he's never won the award it's a it's a it's a wild time in pittsburgh uh you know kenny pickett is not playing really good football uh it's yeah it's just uh it's kind of a mess and. You know, Kenny Pickett is not playing really good football. It's yeah, it's just, it's kind of a mess.

And look at Cleveland. They won a game last week that they were trailing for 59 minutes and 20 seconds of the game. They had that quick, you know, Kyle Hamilton, you know, great play tip pick. And,

you know, that game looked like multiple times that Baltimore was just kind of out and running away with it and just a really weird wonky game. And yeah, I don't have a great feel for it. It is something that I'm going to watch and I think is impactful as I talked about earlier, but you got two guys here with TJ Watt and miles Garrett that are impactful

at the top of the board and the three man defensive player of the year race. And I think it's hard for someone to not make the playoffs and win this award unless you're like setting all time records in terms of like sacks or pressures or things like that. And it's going to be, I don't know. I don't feel good about either team, these teams making the playoffs, but here we are one of them. I mean, Pittsburgh could be seven and three at the end of this and that becomes really challenging. So yeah, this is a, I'm one I'm sitting out on.

I don't even really want to watch but i think it does have an impact massively in terms of you know afc north futures and even some other futures there as well the steelers are going to be the team that makes the playoffs and then he's like a 10 point underdog like the first weekend and like just gets absolutely steamrolled in the playoffs by a good team like it's we see it like you know almost every year where there's just like some shit team that makes the playoffs somehow and they just get they get rolled so that's my prediction for him at least because i think they're they're gonna win some more random games like this i mean like imagine like what a great run out to be playing the browns in this situation you know

what i mean there are so many fun teams in the afc if we get browns and steelers sorry browns and steelers fans if we get browns or steelers or Browns and Steelers in the playoffs, considering a number of fun teams that are like, what, I think 11 teams or 500 or better in the AFC, and a lot of them are fun with young quarterbacks that we're excited to watch for the next five to seven years, and we're going to get stuck with Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Kenny Pickett on the road and in, uh,

Miami or something like that. It's just going to be abysmal. Uh, don't want to watch that. So, all right, we'll, uh,

keep moving here. Arizona on the road in Houston, the Texans as a four and a half point home favorite here on FanDuel. There are fives in the market as well. So you can shop around tolls, moved around some key numbers here, opened it 46 and a half, got bet out to 48 and a half. Looks like we've kind of stabilized around 47 key numbers here. Opened at 46.5. Got bet out to 48.5.

Looks like we've kind of stabilized around 47.5. So kind of, you know, important if you have a lean. Those things matter. I think if you would have asked me in August if a Week 11 Cardinals-Texans game would make the shortlist of show sheet this week, I probably would have laughed at you. But here we are. Very interesting spot here and an interesting game for both clubs here. Clark, I'll let you get started with Cardinals, Texas. Yeah. The, the unit in this game that I think is the most

mispriced potentially is the Cardinals defense. They're still being treated as a bad unit and they haven't been bad for four weeks in a row now for their last four opponents, Seattle, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Atlanta all played below expectation by my metrics against this defense. And I think it, I think they're pretty good. I mean, Buda Baker came back off the IR. He's huge. Uh, they missed Jalen Thompson. The other safety missed some games. Uh, Jonathan Ledbetter missed some games. He's maybe, maybe not a huge impactful player, but they rotate guys in and out a lot at that lineup. So every player matters. And since those guys have all come back, they've been a pretty good unit and you know cj stroud is getting a lot of love and he's a really really good quarterback like it's legitimate uh but it's also kind of like players ebb and flow players

have good or bad performances especially young players and i think if you're kind of you know buying into the texans offense at this point you're buying in at the basically the ceiling so i think there's an angle here uh to kind to kind of expect the Cardinals defense to be better than expected. But I don't, my numbers don't like the Cardinals on the spread, actually like the under in this game, because Kyla Murray is also an inconsistent quarterback. And both these teams like to play a lot of zone and they don't like to blitz a lot. And so that kind of defensive approach forces quarterbacks into taking the checkdowns, taking the short stuff, taking the easy stuff.

Stroud can do that and that, you know, they'll probably move the ball much more easily than Arizona will, but it still takes time off the clock when he does that. Kyler Murray is not great at that. That's his weakness. He'll throw over the middle too aggressively, get picked off. You know, penalties have been a problem, even his whole career.

And then last week it was the same thing, you know, fumbling snaps, like how many of those shotgun snaps go above his head, like he's tiny. And it, you know, it's one of those kills a drive, you know, long third downs that he like miraculously completes. That wasn't happening last year. And I think it's just a very inconsistent way to go about offense. So I don't expect this Cardinals Texans game to be justified as the highest total on the board this week, which is kind of crazy to me considering the two offenses we're dealing with here. Texans defense also is not a slouch like they're there. They can play D'Amico Ryan's is a good head coach and their defensive scheme works. They've got guys back.

Derek Stigley came back last week. They're pretty much healthy on defense too. So this is a game that I think even at 48, which you can get at some places right now i would play the under i'd play the under to 47 and a half but um at 47 i would not play it anymore this is an interesting one connor i mean uh you know we talked extensively in the past we know like players don't tank organizations can tank but playing kyler is not a move that you make organizationally if you're trying to lose football games. We saw an up-and-down performance, as expected, right? First game back, new offensive coordinator.

But he won the game for them on that third and ten scramble on the final drive with a minute and a half to go. That was vintage Kyler. Josh Dobbs isn't getting out of that. Clayton Toon sure as hell isn't getting out of that play and that set him up for the field goal and it just that's very interesting here with the Cardinals who could play spoilers here down the stretch what are your thoughts on this one yeah it is a really unique game here I guess it's a good point with Arizona's defense playing

better as of late I, I think better is still probably only puts them at like a league average unit. You know, and I don't really see them being like, you know, a good, good defense at this point, even though they played a little bit better. I guess my biggest notes were that Kyler looked mobile. And I think that's the most important part of the recovery and that the speed of the game and the processing and the decision-making will kind of take a little bit longer to come back. But like him being able to run it and, you know, be mobile, I think is really important to like his full allotment of, you know, being able to play in this game here. This Texans defense has been really all over the place.

It's like, right. When you get back in on them, you know, they get, you know, absolutely rolled by the bucks and then, right. And then when you're like, okay, well, they're not that good. You know, they do a pretty good job against the Bengals. So it's sometimes, you know, obviously they still let up plenty of points there, but it's, it's one of those things where the Texans are just a very uneven team right now. And they're going through the rollercoaster of just being like, uh, I mean, a team that can basically beat

anyone right now, but can also lose by, you know, 10, 20. They also, the Panthers a couple of weeks ago. And I think the Panthers, one of the worst teams in the league at this point, like if you were to reline that game, I think that, you know, having not seen what happened there, I think the Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league at this point. Like if you were to reline that game, I think that, you know, having not seen what happened there, I think we would be pretty surprised what that spread would be relative to the outcome. So I, this game is really interesting to me. My take was initially over because, you know, of the matchup here and I thought the Texans would be able to continue running the ball, which I think is really important here.

Cause this Cardinals defense is still let up a good amount of running, rushing yards as of late. And it's something that the Texans didn't really have really on in the season. Like they were not able to run the ball for basically every single game until last week. And so I think, you know, I think that's a Bengals. That's a Bengals feature. I think. Yeah, probably.

And so that's the concern. So I go back and forth. Honestly, it's probably another stay away. If I had to bet on it, it would probably be Cardinals against the spread here. Just because I thought Kyler kind of impressed me here. It's like plus five, I think, on the road. I mean, there are a couple of things late in that game in Houston or Cincinnati in the Houston game where we were really close to that being just kind of a boring fourth quarter where Houston was on cruise control. We've just been in here like, hey, if Houston just went into Cincinnati and boat raced them.

Without their best receiver, you know, Jimmy Ward starting safety out last week. We just haven't seen all of Houston yet, I don't think. I'm just interested to see what that looks like when now Noah Brown's kind of emerged. They get more offensive linemen back. If they can get get Ward back this week now that Stingley's back you know Petrie missed some time earlier this season like Denzel or Denzel Perryman is now suspended for three games but they have a four linebacker rotation so like they'll miss Perryman a little bit but not much they'll be able to figure it out so I don't know I think that if Texans need to be considered

actual contenders here whether that's like to come up and win this division or to take one of these bottom spots in the afc playoff picture you have to win at home against arizona does that mean that you win by a margin and cover not necessarily but um i lean texans here i'm not really buying the resurgent cardinals defense in this spot so that would be that'd be my lean but i want to see the injury report like we saw last week the wednesday injury report for houston was just it was like a cvs receipt um you know i'd love to see some of those guys get back and make sure that everyone's here and in play and see what happens with nico collins and if we can get really a ceiling outcome from the texans offense if they

can get everyone healthy. So that would be my lean here. Yeah, I mean, at this point, I think it's really clear that the Cardinals are going to be playing competitive football with Kyler Murray from here on for the rest of the season. Yeah, I agree. One thing that I would note, Connor, on Kyler Murray's mobility against the Falcons is that the Falcons are, relatively speaking,

a very man-heavy defense in today's NFL, and the Texans are very zone-heavy. And when defenders are staying in their zones and keeping their eyes on the quarterback, looking down the field, it's a lot harder for mobile quarterbacks to make stuff happen like that, as it is against a man defense that typically the players are running with the receivers.

So I think that we should expect a little bit of a drop-off in Murray's rushing this game. Yeah, that third and 10 was vintage Murray to back himself out of that, scramble around, I think that we should expect a little bit of a drop off in, in Murray's rushing this game. Yeah. That third and 10 was vintage Murray to back himself out of that, scramble around just a little like, you know, squirrel running around the pitter patter of his feet and to extend it into,

yeah, it was good stuff. It's like, it's why that guy is, you know, has a big old contract was taken first overall. And everyone thought he could be an it guy. It'd be very interesting to see what happens there in the off season.

So, but if they're going to win football games it's kind of they kind of take themselves out of the equation for having to make a move there so all right next one chargers around the road in green bay uh three point road favorites here for the chargers there are some three and a halves out there um or there were at open at least so uh three looks like it's holding steady over is taking a little bit of action there were 42s at open now look like we're 44 in some spots um again a point and a half not massive but around a key number of 44 is not an insignificant move so shop around depending on what you want to do there i have a really difficult time handicapping these two teams this should be theoretically one of the better spots for Jordan Love this season

in terms of matchup because Chargers pass defense has been absolutely terrible uh Jordan Love is impossible to trust and really anything on the Packers side right now feels impossible to trust Connor what are your thoughts and Chargers Green Bay Packers yeah to contextualize that I mean this Chargers defense is allowing the most passing plays of 30 yards or more. And Jordan Love actually leads the league in 30-yard passing plays or more. He's tied, I believe. So it's really unique because I think he then there are a couple of things that it's a little bit gross here. And my initial take was on the chargers, but the more I dug in, I kind of liked the Packers in this spot here. And I don't necessarily feel good about it,

but I think it's kind of the right play here. Green Bay playing cover three, nearly half their snaps. And then against cover three so far, Herbert 28th and completion rate, seven yards per attempt. I think the chargers running game should have a little bit more success than we've seen because they've been facing off against a bunch of top five run defenses.

But the reality is like they just haven't been able to get, you know, on a roll running the ball here. So I think it puts a little bit more pressure on the passing game, which I just hasn't looked the same on a week to week basis without Mike Williams. Obviously looked good against the Lions last week. I mean, that was in my mind, very predictable. We talked about that in the show um and yeah I think that if the Packers were able to hit a couple of explosive explosive plays here grabbing the three uh I think is pretty interesting

but again it's one of those plays where I think it's gross and it's like you know close your eyes and you know take trust my handicap type of type of value here but I'm curious on your on your thoughts Clark yeah definitely uh sometimes the grossest bets are the best bets to make. I grabbed the plus three and a half at open and now it's down to plus three. I still like the plus three, but I don't think there's a rush to bet it because I don't think there's any material risk of it going to two and a half. I'd be very, very shocked. Whereas I think there is a chance it either goes to an expensive three or like a, you know, plus three plus 100, or even like a three and a half. Again, we might see that, but I really like the Packers in the spot at home that the Chargers defense is a little bit of an

enigma because they're fourth in the NFL in sacks, but they're only 25th in pressure rate. So they're converting a very high rate of pressures into sacks. And I think that has a lot to do with the types of quarterbacks and offensive lines they've faced. You know, Zach Wilson, obviously, I think they took seven sacks. Aiden O'Connell took seven sacks in his first game. They played the Titans with an injured offensive line, sacked Tannehill five times. They paid Cousins with an injured offensive line, sacked four times.

And the Packers offensive line has been playing very, very well, especially in pass protection. I was really impressed with them against the Steelers. And giving Jordan Love, you know, I think he has one of the lowest pressure rates allowed in the NFL, despite having a long time to throw and a deep average depth of target, which is a really good combination for making explosive plays happen, which leads right into the Chargers weakness on defense, which is big pass plays. So I think this is a really good spot at home for Jordan Love to continue to grow. All of his receivers are healthy. All five of his main targets are first or second year players. And I think we see first and second year pass catchers in the NFL improve a lot over that first

couple of years. So to expect this offense to look a lot better at the end of the year than it did earlier in the year, I think is valid, especially given how many injuries they were dealing with early in the year. I'm a little concerned about the Packers defense because Jair Alexander looks like he probably won't go again. And so Keenan Allen will probably have another big day, but the Chargers offense is very fragile. And one thing about the Lions game was if you look at the box score, it looks like the Chargers offense, you know, dominated and went blow for blow with the Lions offense. But what the Chargers were doing was so much less sustainable. So many more, you know, miracle third, not miracle, but like low percentage third down conversions.

They had one goal line stand that took eight plays to get in the end zone because there was a penalty on the first fourth down and they scored on the second fourth down. That kind of offense is not really sustainable. And so I think there's some material fear that if anything doesn't go right for the Chargers on offense, this plus three is going to look real easy for the Packers at home. So I lean the plus three. I would love to get a plus three, plus 100 or back to plus three and a half, but this is definitely a Packers side for me. You guys just ripped my notes and uh you know the explosive rates for the chargers past defense i had literally the uh sacks and pressure discrepancy on the green base or on the charger side which is a

very interesting thing you just don't see that typically where there's such a discrepancy in terms of uh sacks and pressure rate so good job by you guys i'm kind of with you i mean uh i would like the three and a half it's gone but i think i make a good point clark wait for that to maybe come back on the prop side maybe it's you know christian watson longest jordan love longest uh completion type of look uh versus a side here for me because that just is uh these two teams are are really hard for me to to feel consistent or feel strong about so yeah connor's probably right the The growth side is probably the right side, taking the points at home. This is probably closer to a pick in terms of where these teams are at currently.

All right, good stuff here. Monday Night Football, we have good island games here this week. Monday Night Football, rematch of the Super Bowl, Philly on the road in Kansas City. Again, we deserve this. We have a bunch of Jets and Raiders in the Island Games. This is good stuff right here. Both clubs, again, not just the Super Bowl rematch.

They're both currently sitting in the top spot in their respective conference in the middle of November. So they are ready to go back and compete again. It's a bounce between two and a half and three. So there's some seeing both of the markets shop around a little bit. If you have a lean, totals getting hit down a little bit, there was 50 and a half and the look ahead market reopened around 48. We're down like 45 and a half in some spots,

which is pretty significant moving through multiple key numbers there, which I think is interesting. You know, we have both teams coming off of a week 10 buy. We know the magic that is historically Andy Reid off of a buy Clark. What are your early thoughts here on Eagles and Chiefs? I'm surprised by the movement on the total here, going that far down 45 and a half for two of the most consistent and best offenses in the NFL.

It seems a bit low. I get the whole primetime unders thing, and it's arrowhead. It's going to be cold, maybe a little windy, maybe a little rainy, but not enough, in my my opinion to justify the move. What I like on this game is both offenses are going to move the ball well. I mean, I think we know that at this point in the season, but I think the Chiefs defense has been playing better than the Eagles defense has. And the caveat to that is the Eagles have been dealing with some injuries, but at the same time, the Chiefs have faced a tougher schedule. So putting up better metrics against a tougher schedule

is typically a good indication of a better defense. And when you throw in the fact that they're playing at home on Monday night, you know, whenever you have a Monday night game, the home field advantage is enhanced in these big game spots because, you know, the fans have been drinking for a while. It's like, you know, people get crazy. We've seen Philadelphia benefit from this home field advantage in their big games this year, right?

They beat Miami and they beat Dallas. Those were the two signature wins that Philadelphia has. Both of those were at Philadelphia. So I think going on the road to face a really, really good Chiefs team is a different test. And I definitely like the Chiefs here. I'm a little bit, you know, the price is pretty tough. Like if you can get minus two and a half, minus 110, I think that's fine. But I actually prefer dipping down to the money line.

You can get it minus 140. NFL scores have been a little bit funky this year. And I think, you know, I don't know the full data on this, but I think there are some reasons why we should anticipate more games falling within the three than maybe historically. You know, in addition to the extra point moving back several years ago, I think teams are becoming more analytically driven, especially teams like Philadelphia. And that can lead to some decision-making

that doesn't follow the sort of typical 7-3 game script that you see, especially in a game where every point is going to matter. So when it comes down to it, having Patrick Mahomes at home on prime time to win the game outright, I think is a much more comfortable bet. And I'm happy laying the extra little bit of juice to take it down to the money line. Yeah.

Connor, where are you at this? This one, this is going to be an interesting one. I'm also surprised to see the line in terms of the total kind of falling here. Yeah. My initial lean when I was breaking this down was Philly plus three,

because that's what it was at for a while. Now we're looking at a minus two and a half. I do think it's interesting though so the Eagles defense right now first in pressure rate but also dead last and explosive play rate pass rate allowed and it's such a unique difference because that's something that you usually don't normally see right it's like if you're getting pressure usually you're able to you know kind of limit big things happening so it's just one of those things where it's especially because they're not like blitzing through the roof, you know, a ton as well. So it's one of those things that I'm

interested in. Also, they're able to get interior pressure. Like I almost think that this game could be really unique because is it going to be like a repeat of the Superbowl where the chiefs were under nonstop pressure? No one was able to get open and you know, against Tampa and Mahomes looked horrible. Are we going to see Mahomes be able to work his magic and exploit the Eagles defense deep downfield and, you know, that kind of outcome? And I think both of those are in play, but I do feel good about the Eagles running game here,

specifically Chiefs 25th success rate, 31st in EPA per play. They've been playing a little bit better run defense lately, but at the same time, I think this Eagles running game is truly dominant where they want to be. So I think all of those factors working together because this Chiefs pass evens have been playing really, really well as is. So I don't think that the Eagles are going to come into this game and go super pass heavy. But I don't know. I go back and forth. I think I like the three there, but that's obviously gone. At this point, I didn't see the total move down 45 and a half. I would probably lean over in this spot i think that that's it's it's such a low number for for two offenses of this caliber

as you already mentioned yeah i mean you can get like the eagles team total on draft kings like 20 and a half like minus 120 that's oh wow that's an eagles offense that's been like again i've talked about it like i think we haven't even seen it on like full blast yet. I think we've seen like really good versions of it, but like they've had some red zone turnovers and some, some weird games. Like, I don't know. I it's tough. I going against my homes at home on primetime off of behind feels like such

a bad play, just structurally historically. Yeah. I mean, I talked about it in the look ahead. So I thought the three was, was worth grabbing two and a half is definitely interesting. Clark definitely seems to be on, you know, worth laying the money line on the chief side,

but not an action for me at this point, I would probably grab a team total. Same thing. You can get the chiefs team total. I think at, I don't know, 23 and a half or something like that, depending on your book and depending on the juice.

So those are more interesting to me, or maybe just the game total in general. So either way, hopefully we should have a island game that delivers in terms of expectations going into it. So the first island game of the week, we are going to finish with here. So you can skip this if you're listening on Friday and you've already seen the outcome of the game,

or you can listen to hear how horrible our analysis is in hindsight. We're going to talk about the Thursday football game here with the Bengals and Ravens. Ravens, 3.5 or 4, depending on your book. Totals out there, 45.5 or 46. Disappointing losses for both here in Week 10. They're looking to get back. Bengals really need this one, again, considering what's going on in the division and in the conference uh knowing

that either the browns or the steelers are going to get a win this week uh so you really need to not fall back even further here some injuries though obviously on both sides you know more so on the bangles side t higgins out um you. Sam Hubbard unlikely to go. Trey Hendricks possibly going to miss this one too. That's really problematic. Basically, your bookend edge rushers and your number two receiver. That did not go well for them last week. Injuries on Baltimore side as well.

Marlon Humphrey, tackle Ronnie Stanley. Don't know their status here as we get closer to this one, but those are worth monitoring here. Connor, I'll give you the floor here for Bengals and Ravens. My biggest note here would be kind of how the Ravens defense has played Cincinnati lately. So Mike McDonald's been the defensive coordinator in four games for the

Ravens. And in those games, they played a ton of like quarters and cover four basically. And of like not blitzed at all. I think they blitzed like 11 total times in four games or something like that against, against the Bengals. And so that's held, you know, burrow to 5.8 yards per attempt is highest in all those games is a little bit over six, uh, and on the whole season Ravens defense

third and drop back, uh, success rate and second and EPA per play. They're playing well Bengals without T Higgins, which I think matters a good bit here. So there's a lot of different, um, factors here that makes me kind of lean towards the Ravens at three and a half and the under. Um, but you know, I want to buy this Bengals team, but I, I just think this Ravens defense is so legit and their office is playing, playing fairly well as well. Uh, we already talked about how the Ravens or the Bengals run defense is a little bit leaky, dead last and explosive running rate allowed, you know, going up against the Ravens who have, I mean, arguably one of the most explosive running backs in the league in Keaton Mitchell. You know, Gus Edwards looked pretty good. I think they're going to have a ton of success

on the ground and potentially success through the air as well, or at least middling success. So it's like, it just makes me lean a little bit towards the Ravens here at three and a half. And that's probably where I'll be playing. It looks like it just took some money. It was four and now it's on a three and a half minus one Oh five. So there's a chance. It looks like they could see a three priority game time. Interesting.

Clark, what are your thoughts on that? That's interesting to me. I, my numbers like the Ravens in this spot, but I, I can't bring myself to bet it, especially at four or three and a half.

Several reasons why. First is it's really hard to quantify a team that is powered by a really, really strong defense because every projection is a prediction of a range of outcomes. And basically the Ravens have been so close to their high end range of outcome on defense for so many games that it seems like all the variance is the other way, right? So that kind of cautions me a little bit, especially playing a divisional game in which their defense has actually had some of its more kind of low, low performances in divisional games, especially against Burrow, who's a very elite quarterback. And when elite quarterbacks get over a field goal on the spread, like it's typically a pretty good angle because, you know know keeping games

close is is pretty easy to do but again my number is do not find value on cincinnati definitely in baltimore instead i think i'm leaning with connor and playing into the angle that mike mcdonald really knows how to play defense against burrow um and i i'm i'm getting out of my lane i'm jumping in your lane i like burrows passing under passing under in this one. I think it's like, let's go to 57 and a half. So I'm trying to prop just for fun. But basically, I think he struggles with this type of defense, especially when they can play man on the receivers, especially without T Higgins. And I do think the Ravens offense is going to be able to kind of chew up clock, move the ball, you know, run the ball. The Bengals defense has been reliant on big plays to turn the ball over. You know, against the Texans, they were not making the key stops until they had that one interception. And against the 49ers,

they were not doing anything on defense except for the interceptions. So I don't think that's a really sustainable way to play defense. I don't think this is the same Bengals defense that can get the ball back in Burrow's hands late in a game in which they're trailing. I think this is the kind of game that the Ravens consult away if they're leading. And that also is a way to keep the passing yards under for Burrow. So I think there's lots of ways that Baltimore wins and runs up the score in this one. I'd also be interested in sort of like, if you like high leverage, you know, SGP type attacks, I think there's some potential SGPs on the Ravens here to kind of, you know, risk very little to win a lot on the idea that Burr really struggles in this game without T

Higgins. Um, but other than that, I'm not interested in the game and I'm not going to have very much money on it. This is where you miss my face. Cause Clark's out here talking about same game parlays. He's been props. Like I'm losing it over here and you guys can't even see me reacting. I love it. Connor, you already played burrow under yeah i did yeah i released burrow under and uh we released yeah it was too we got 258 looking at 257 now i mean i said i'd play down to 250 it's never gonna reach 250 but i mean i think our projections have them like a touch above that but i i really like that under i think it's good i looked back in four games against Baltimore in this year and last year with Mike McDonald, his passing yards have been like consistently in the two tens.

Uh, like I think every single game, maybe, maybe there's a two 20 in there, but like, you know, when you're playing a prop that is basically 50, 50,

like you do need to win, you know, 54% of time, whatever. Like the idea that it's two 57, like I'm willing to take my chances. This isn't the breakout game against the best defense. The Ravens ever been in Baltimore on Thursday night without T. Higgins. So that's definitely a strong play for me.

Well, I remember the first matchup here this season because I had a Roquan Smith tackles over and the Bengals ran all of like eight first half plays, which is also in the range of outcomes here because of how Baltimore can run the ball and control and dictate pace in the spot. So, you know, those are other outs for you to take advantage of this play as well, because I think we expect to see more and more of that. Now, Ronnie Stanley certainly helps that if he's active, that's going to help them be able to do that more successfully. So I have to watch that news, but yeah, I would lean the Ravens here. This just gets really interesting on the, on the Bengal side.

If they happen to lose this one, but yeah, I love the, I love the same game parlays from Clark. Far enough. It's good. Gotta get them in the Friday streets, bro.

We just sit there and build same game parlays for an hour. Yeah. Just, just to be clear, like the size of a bed on something like that should be very, very small compared to when you have the actual model to back it up but yeah for sure yes has to couch it with something but yeah you're right you're right very very measured uh all right any other uh things to catch your well here i'm gonna start i'm gonna start and you guys tell me if anything else here on the

week 11 board catches your eye there are a couple of things that i wanted to talk about here as well and maybe we'll stay in the same vein here. This Jets and Bills game, obviously the Bills have been in the news with Ken Dorsey getting fired and all that went on in that Monday night football game. This is a really rough spot for, theoretically, Josh Allen to get back and show us that he's the guy because he has struggled against the Jets in his career and even in the last little bit here in his career but looking at like 227 yards in the 10 game per game over the 10 games of his career

nine touchdowns 10 picks he's not top 240 in any of the past four meetings and has a four to five touchdown interception ratio in those games uh connor any thoughts on jets bills yeah i like the jets i mean i don't know it's i i feel like i'm you know it's it's outrageous but jets plus seven i think is is one of my better looks of the week here they've i mean basically owned him and the bill's defense is so bankrupt i mean they made mac jones look good like a couple weeks ago i mean this is like, I mean, Mac Jones is like terrible. This office is horrible. Like I, I think that this Jets office is fine. I mean, the issue is that Brees Hall and the running game needs to get going. I mean,

that was the most pathetic performance of running I've ever seen in my entire life, uh, among that Jets office of line. But anyways, I think they're able to keep it within seven. Um, yeah, the last three meetings since basically 2022, when they got, you know, kind of like short up their defense with like sauce and everyone together, he has literally two passing touchdowns and five interceptions averaging six,

5.4 and 5.8 yards per time. So, I mean, just brutal. Clark, any thoughts on that matchup or anything else you like on the board? Yeah, no, not that one is tough. I, the jets really do a really good job against Josh Allen, but there's no way I'm betting on Zach Wilson against Buffalo, even, even with seven and a

half. Like I just, and, and I'm also just kind of like, I'm baffled by the bills, like how they managed to lose games and how they managed to blow covers is is incredible um but i still have to trust my you know my process and my metrics which say the bills are significantly better than the jets so um i i like uh well trying to look at current prices um yeah so so the bucks 49ers game is a little bit interesting to me i i'm looking at the over at 41 and a half you know the the 49ers score on everybody like outside of the they had a three game slide when debo samuel and trent williams were out uh other than that they score 30 points every week week in week out the bucks defense sucks i mean we saw cj stroud put up like 38

points against him or something um and and yet this is lined at 41 and a half Baker Mayfield takes shots downfield like he's inconsistent but um and they don't run the ball well but like if if they're just going to run into the 49ers defensive line then they're just going to keep punting and the 49ers are going to keep scoring uh but I do think the 49ers I mean the Bucks can actually put some points on the board especially in garbage time because Baker Mayfield is kind of at that point in his career where he's just like I don't give a shit I'm just going to throw it down for Mike Evans. And Mike Evans is going to drop every

deep ball. So that's the one way you can really beat the 49ers. I think if the Bucs even put up any kind of life on offense, then this clears 41 and a half easily. Interesting. We need to talk about the people's parlay. All right. Because we had a few weeks ago,

we had some success. Right now this week, we have about five games that are basically double digits, nine and above favorites, mostly all at home, other than the Cowboys, who are solid 10.5, 11-point favorites in Carolina. But you have Detroit. The Bears are taking some money. That one's shrunk a little bit, uh, Detroit at home against the bears, Miami at home against the Raiders. Uh, you just mentioned the Niners and then it is crazy that we live in a world regardless of who they're playing. Uh, the commanders are a massive favorite, uh 10-point favorite against Danny DeVito and the New York football giants.

The People's Parlay, five-leggers. Connor's shaking his head at me. Clark might be in, though, Connor. DraftKings, I feel like minus 138 on these four. What are your thoughts, Clark? I mean, plus 138, I'm sorry. Plus 138. Plus 138. Plus 138, I'm sorry. I think there's

a lot of landmines here. I think the Lions are a landmine. I think, you know, Justin Fields' first game back, the Bears have been playing really good football recently. Underrated football, both offensive line and defense, run defense, secondaries playing better. This is a game that I think, you know, the Lions' offense is fantastic. Don't get me wrong. But is a game that I think, you know, the Lions offense is fantastic. Don't get me wrong. But is the game plan going to be as sophisticated for this game against the Bears as it was against the Chargers? I'm not sure. You know, is Jared Goff trustworthy enough? If there's a couple mistakes, I think the Bears can capitalize. You know, it's not a high percentage play, but when you're adding four different ones,

and then the one that I'm kind of super interested in is the Giants. Like, I think people are underrating Tommy DeVito just a little bit, which, you know, I know that bar is real low and you can laugh at me all you want, but like, I think there's some sneaky upside there that I think people don't realize. So I don't know. I'm out on this one, man. I thought you had me for a little bit. Uh, Connor, you're poo-pooing it. I think you just are just, you know, naturally it didn't even matter, you know, who the teams are, what the handicap is. You're just, you know, you're out. No, there's, I feel like there's a couple of pretty stable teams that I feel good about. Like the dolphins. I feel pretty

good about at home. I feel good about the Niners. I agree with Clark. I think the lions are good, but I mean, this number is shot down a lot. I think Justin Fields is always live to pull off a win that he doesn't deserve. And the bears even has been playing a little bit better. The giants too. I mean, like, obviously I know Danny DeVito's garbage, but this, I mean, they gave Sam Howell a lot of trouble earlier in the season. Like they scored seven points on him. You know what I mean? Like this is not, it's not a 10 point favorite that I want to back.

Now I'm not running to bet the giants, but I don't know. It's just, it's not a team that I want to lay as a big favorite. I even though there's like a touchdown favorite, I don't even know if I want to land there. So, um,

giants defense is, is all banged up in the concussion protocol and stuff. So it's, it's going to be a struggle. Yeah. I mean, it's probably not going to land there. So, um, Giants defense is, is all banged up in the concussion protocol and stuff. So it's, it's going to be a struggle. Yeah. I mean, it's probably not going to be great. I don't know.

It's just like, I can't bet something that's plus one 38 relying on the commanders to win a game. So, yeah, I mean, they traded their, like one of their best players to Seattle.

They got Thibodeau in concussion protocol. Like, like Dak, they hung like 600 yards on him. That's not DeVito's fault. That's the problem is that the commanders are starting to play some actually pretty good football offensively. To go into Seattle and play that game like they did, that was some good football.

So I get you. It's still surprising to me that they're that large of a favorite. But in this scenario, we don't need them to cover the 10. We don't need them to cover 7.5 half we just need them to win the football game uh and that's you know what the difference you gotta bet it right you're betting it right i haven't yet uh i did price it out i priced it out today because i just wanted to see what it was plus 138 it's like plus 131 some other spots draft kings has the the best price um it's not the worst it's not the worst. It's not the worst.

Five legs. I'm with you guys. I mean, it's a bit. I'm joking. I don't want to get behind five legs either. But I thought we had to talk about it because it is a spot where you look at the board and you're like, oh, you have all these spots. Mostly a home favorites of almost double digits. These are the times that I think you should talk about it.

And again, Dallas is the only leg that's not, I think we all feel probably pretty good about the current iteration of Dallas going in and handling their business against what's going on in Carolina right now. So yeah, it's interesting to discuss. What about last one that I thought was interesting? Jags Titans seven. It looks like pinnacles floating to six and a half here um i don't know i kind of i'm kind of ready to ride the levis roller coaster again uh at plus seven no i love six and a half if you can get it that's so it's only a matter of time this this line is like titans offensive line is not good and now it's like decimated uh and i just think it's a bounce back spot for the jags i think they

pressure him a ton uh yeah i just i i think he has trouble i think he has trouble here just with a lot of pressure good bounce back spot for the jacks yeah i agree i released six and a half and it stayed there for a while but i think today it finally moved up to seven in most spots but um this is a really really good spot for the jags and you know we'll love us it was it was a lot of pretty throws in that first week and then it's been a lot of very inconsistent football behind a bad offensive line with a angry jag squad and don't look now but trayvon walker is starting to you know make a little bit of an impact on the field like you know still still very much disappointment for number one overall pick but this defense this

jaguars defense is is definitely a good unit traven walker can do nothing for his whole career and he'll still have a place in my heart just for the amount of impact he made on my bank account you know shout out traven yeah uh yeah uh that's i'm with you six and a half i think is a really really really good look uh in that spot so i mean we'll you know levis overall yeah i'm interested what he has right now in front of him is uh is really tricky i think the good thing is he's he's getting the ball out really quickly i think he's like top three in time to throw which is surprising especially when you think about what he did well in that first game where bought himself a ton of time and and threw

the ball deep now getting the ball out quickly did not translate into a ton of points against a really bad buck secondary last week as well. So, yeah, I think there's still some learning curve going on there with Levis. So not a spot I want to run in front of this week with Jacksonville. You know, they're struggling. But, again, I think it's just a better spot for sure than the Niners. All right, guys. I think that wraps us up here for Week 11.

So sorry you had to look at me not blinking because i think there's a record i didn't blink for almost 53 minutes which is really impressive so uh yeah uh before you leave don't forget to hit the thumbs up hit the subscribe make sure you come back on friday to hang out with us for prop drop again uh 3 p.m eastern on the four forBets YouTube channel. And take advantage of the promo code of BETS50. That's going to get you 50% off of an already discounted betting subscription over at 444.com slash plans. We'll see you guys next time.

Thanks, everybody. Yeah!