Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 12 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: November 20, 2024

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 12! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 12 betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move the line presented by draft kings sportsbook ryan newton joined here as always by connor allen week 12 flying by we got thanksgiving next week connor three games just an atrocious thanksgiving slates and then a black friday game which is uh just even worse kansas City and the Raiders. It's not great, but how are we doing, buddy? Good. I know no one cares about my fantasy team, but I'm about to start Tommy DeVito this week, so prayers up.

You reminded me just because of the Thanksgiving game, we're probably going to see him. I think there's a legit chance we see Drew Locke the week after just based on incentives and all that. We can get into that a little bit later. But yeah, prayers for me. We'll need it. Must-win game. So we'll see how it goes.

It's a 20-man league? Why we got Tommy Cutler? FFPC, 9-2, and somehow have not clinched the playoffs. If we lose, we actually might not get in, which I've never played in a league where I'm 9-2 heading into the final week. I might not get in. But Josh Allen on by. The rest of the league is it's a tough league

two thousand dollar fantasy league you know it's not not easy um so somehow sweating my dick off at nine and two so here we are yeah i thought our team was gonna be really good this year that never never got off the ground uh never really happens i know you had a good team a couple years ago with our guests this week excited uh joined by uh an old friend young man but in terms of friendship uh he's an old friend former teammate here at four for four this gentleman's introduction has changed here over the past 24 hours for the record i did invite him on prior to knowing that he had an announcement too so i you know i feel like we're not necessarily uh you know chasing uh the tau chasing here um taking his data science skills from Fantasy Pros

over to Penn Gaming and ESPN Bet. It is Sam Hoppin. Sam, again, congratulations. We're very excited for you and welcome back to the show. Look, thank you. Thank you. You said welcome back. Have I been?

We've had you before. Okay. Yeah, Connor and I stopped doing guests for a little while because transparency, booking guests for a little while because, you know, transparency, booking guests is a miserable experience. Yeah. For the most part, you're trying to book other people that do content, their availability and their schedule is tough.

You know, we had some in-house people that we did for a while. We had Daigle for a little while. We had Sharp Clark for a little bit. Now we got back to the guest thing this year. So I know in a previous iteration, you know, we've had you before. This is not our first move line. So yeah, I mean, happy to be impactful for you that you remembered it. Yeah, not, not, uh, I guess happy to be in the top 70, uh, you would consider having on, but, uh, yeah, thanks for the congrats. Happy to, happy to chat with you guys. Excited to make the next move in my career and do some more football analysis.

Top 75 in ties for the record, but it's, you know, either way, I'm glad we got you before. You know, podcasting, you know, was no longer part of something that you have to do. Obviously no longer doing that for the folks at Fancy Pros. I don't think that's going to be in the scope of your asks over at Penn. But anyway, we'll jump into that here and, you know, shortly get a sense of what you could share, but we're excited to find out. But don't mind folks, two episodes of Move the Line each week. This is Wednesday.

We're going to get into some of the week 12 games. Friday, Prop Drop Show, 3 p.m. Eastern. Move the Line, wherever you listen to podcasts. 4 for 4 bets on the YouTube channel. Subscribe, rate, review. All those things go a long way in supporting us. You want to get the bank subscriptions, access to everything that we do. Massively discounted right now.

Our Black Friday sale kicks off early. You don't need a coupon code or anything. You just go over to 444.com slash plans. Scoop that up right now. It's even cheaper through our partnership with Rebet, which we've talked a lot about. You can use promo code 444BET for that. You can use promo code HIGHSLOP if you want to take advantage of the HIGHSLOP deal where you get a month

of 444, a month of HIGHSLOP's dub club, whatever way. If you have specific questions, reach out to us. Let us know. Lots of different ways to get here and I think it's where you should be. Maybe you're at Connor. You're going to have a 9-3 fantasy team. You're not going gonna be in the playoffs and you still want to sweat some football speculation stuff you want to get in the prop streets a little bit like that

come over come hang out with us i'll be happy to have you all right buddy new gig um i mean we know the scope of your skill sets is i mean we still have tools on the site that have your name on them created by sam hop into the bottom um yeah still get messages about those every once in a while yeah occasionally it's like can we just get sam on a call could figure this out uh this tool is broken but you know um you know i'm sure you have a sense of a little bit of what you're doing some stuff maybe you can't tell us maybe you can uh can you help us with our limits like what can we what's going on with you over at uh at pen gaming and tell us a little bit about that gig yeah i've got no shortage of people asking to uh cut their or i guess remove their limits that is not in my purview um yeah

over there it's a little tight yeah hey that's that's above my pay grade. Yeah. I can't share a ton about what I'm doing. We'll be doing some, some modeling on the NFL side, pretty much focusing on on all football all the time. We'll, we'll still be putting some contact out on X and, and now blue sky find me on there at Sam Hoppin as well. But yeah, just going to be doing a lot of football analysis and research. Are you excited for your new golf? No golf.

No golf. Well, no modeling golf. I will be playing golf. Sam deserves a little shout out here,nor before i kick it to you you know like we're the rabbit holes in a very different space now uh over on betsbert's golf you know sam doesn't get credit for that much these days but sam was instrumental in the early days of uh getting betsbert's golf and the data off the ground there and now it is uh again causation correlation we can get into discussions there it is now currently by far the best tool that you could possibly find but we would not have got there without sam so i want to give sam

uh his flowers at the top because those are tough times trying to build a uh intricate customizable golf database that had never been done to that scale before so thanks to sam for that because kick-ass tool now so sorry connor stepped on you a couple times there no i was just curious because i know like sam tweets you tweet out a bunch of like really cool charts and stuff each week is that probably gonna be scaled back uh or what do you think like or still maybe be able to get that stuff done and you also tweet out a chart of like different models numbers uh and like that i'm assuming that's probably going to go away. But just curious, what does that look like? Yeah, I still need to like totally figure out what I can and can't

produce. I mean, I think, I mean, just sharing stats and stuff, we'll still be able to do that. You know, sharing just objective data that's out there is not something that I won't be able to continue doing. I think the frequency with which I do some of the ad hoc stuff that I've done in the past will certainly go down just from a time perspective. And like I said, content not being front of mind for this role specifically, but they're not going to be able to totally silence me and my HRs. That's good. I like to hear that. I feel like there was one more thing too. So yeah, probably no more like actual podcasts.

Will you be, oh yeah, this is another question i had that i was thinking of are you going to be like the jeff benson of pen uh you know like jeff benson the circus uh are you going to be that guy the one just hopping in the replies maybe fire up some rvrp and everything no i uh i really respect jeff and his willingness to to stick it to some people and uh, uh, but that will, that will not be me. I'm still going to be a little bit more reserved. Yeah. That'd be amazing. Yeah. It would be so odd, like character for you to just be like this. I wouldn't say Jeff's aggressive, but like, you know, he's, he, he'll clap back a little bit. That is, I mean, give you a little bit more, like, you know, not your necessarily your, your social, uh, persona you a little bit more like, you know, not your necessarily your,

your social persona that's out there for people, you know, in social settings, you know, on the inside, you'll, you'll clap back a little bit, but that'd be so funny if you just heel turn,

you just get like this real aggressive, you know, borderline prick online. It'd be, it'd be fantastic. I'm just saying, I'm just suggesting, you know,

it's up to you. Anytime anyone comes at you about like limiting, that's what what that's what it'll all just be about it's limited not even about the pricing which has nothing to do with your job it's gonna be like why am i limited and then you're gonna have to just probably respond to him so well it'll be fun maybe i'll just reply to you like that every single you know once a week and see what happens and i'm just gonna i'm gonna limit the number of tweets they can see from me and uh start blocking them get out the block button honestly fair i'm surprised benson doesn't do that more he deals with some pretty interesting uh comments but

he's found himself deep in the weeds at this point like he finds himself some pretty strange conversations and he yeah he's not uh without responsibility there on some of those he certainly finds himself there on purpose yeah yeah thanks for good content though. All right. Let's talk football a little bit, Sam. Uh, futures are, I think very interesting at this time, Connor and I are,

uh, making more deliberate, uh, you know, focus on that at this time. Cause I think it is, we start to get the narratives that shape these awards. Uh,

I think in a meaningful way, I think you had a, probably a pretty impactful MVP game last week with, especially with the way that you had that Josh Allen run to kind of seal the deal. Those are the types of things here that happened in November and December that really shape voters' decisions in the market. So anything that you liked in the future space that's out there, it could be player level, team level, anything that caught your eye that's currently on the board for people yeah nothing specifically i was looking at that the mbp market yesterday and i actually think it's pretty well priced right now i think the guy outside of alan and and lamar

who has the best shot to compete with them probably is Jared Goff. I mean, if you look at the schedule that he has down the stretch, they play the Bears on Thanksgiving as a standalone game. They play the Packers on Thursday night football the following week. They face the Bills in the late Sunday afternoon. So like there could be this, you know, Allen versus Goff type scenario. And then they get the 49ers in prime time on week 17. So there's going to be a lot of eyes on the, or excuse me, on the Lions, on Jared Goff. If he has games like he had against the Texans

a couple of weeks ago, it's not going to go in his favor but if the offense continues to do what it's done the past couple weeks I think you know not that the the credit has gone away from Ben Johnson but I think a lot of the early excitement for the Lions offense has started to now shift towards you know know, maybe golf actually is good and is constructed or is guiding this offense in the right way in ways that other other quarterbacks might not. So, again, I think if he does have at least competent games in all these standalone games, then he certainly got a shot to to jump up there i mean if they keep winning too they've got uh they're in the driver's seat for the one seat in the nfc as well so i think again if there's anyone outside those top two that it is golf but i think between alan and jackson it's probably alan i don't know if there would be like some voter fatigue with Lamar Jackson the past several years and just sort of wanting to give it to Allen as like a, you know, he hasn't been in the league that long, but as a lifetime achievement MVP type thing.

So I think it's Allen's award to lose at this point. I think he's a good chalk too. You make a good point. I do think the voter fatigue thing is real with Lamar. Cause it is again, this is a, an award that's voted on. So it's a little different.

I Connor back in like the summer was poking holes in Jared golf to win MVP based off of the week 16 game on the road in Chicago. That is probably the weather spot for, for, for golf there. Jeff's probably the weather spot for, for, for golf there. Jeff's in the chat. What's up, Jeff?

Sam, any thoughts on the lions? Is that, so that's the lines matchup with the bears. I'm guessing Jeff. Yep. Yeah. Just from Florida.

Like that's, this is a lot for him. So kudos to Jeff to almost two sentences together back to back. So just super cool, bud. But yeah, any thoughts on that bears game for, for Jerry Goff?

I mean, again, it's one of those situations where if he does play well and he bucks that trend, everyone is going to give him the credit for overcoming this outdoor narrative that he has. If he plays poorly, it's just a classic Jared Goff outside. But it's again, a lot of people will be looking for him to play poorly.

And if he does play well and again, plays well in these all these standalone games, then do think that he's again that's going to only help his his case yeah uh connor you've been banging the drum for anything eagles related for a solid month here in terms of the future market your jalen hurts number shorter than it was but you know still fairly well priced 15 12 12 to 15, depending on your book, any additional thoughts there or any golf thoughts or where, however you want to take this discussion. Yeah. I kind of thought it would be lower by now.

Um, just to be honest, especially after a big win against the commanders on Thursday. Um, you know, I thought that was pretty substantial. And then, but obviously they're running so much.

It's so much, so much Saquon, you know, like, I don't know if he has enough stats and like you know he's not the one like leading them there so like a big game against the ravens you know i mean a 10 game win streak essentially heading you know like it might be basically at that point like that in my opinion would be pretty impactful uh again i'm still holding on hope we got into like

30 so you know again that's like pretty solid i don't think that 15 to 1 is still a bad price. If you're looking for a bet, I don't think that that's bad. Cause again, like they're going to keep winning. He's going to probably keep playing pretty well. So all those things are turning his direction. Um, I don't have any specific other MVP takes in terms of my futures. One though, I wanted to go over to the office rookie of the year market. There's still a 30 to one on Brock Bowers at, um, office rookie of the year. Jane Daniels, like minus 600 MGM minus 400 draft Kings. I don't know. I mean, and Bo Nix is obviously up there at second favorite. And then it's Brock Bowers at 30 to one Brock Bowers is going to break their rookie receiving record of receptions

for all pass catchers. That's just like, you know, he's on pace to do that. And then he's going to break the tight end receiving rookie record. I like for sure. If he hasn't already, I don't know. It was like, it's like a thousand and 60 years in the land. So I mean, this guy's just going to break, break records. So like at the end of the year, I think that barring Jane Daniels continue to play well, which he has not played well against any good defense last like three weeks, actually he's played pretty poorly. Um, and then Bo Nix who's played way better but he still I mean had a really terrible stretch for like half the season like these are your two favorites and you're competing that against a guy who's gonna literally the end of the year these voters this guy broke like all these records like he shouldn't at least be in consideration you know

like I don't know 30 to 1 seems like a stretch uh given all that so i don't know we'll see i i do think 30 to 1 is longer than it should be but pukinakua broke all these records last year and they still gave it to cj stroud now i think cj stroud has played played better than at least what daniels has done the last couple weeks i just think what daniels did early in the season bought him so much goodwill in the in the voters eyes that it might just take an injury for him to to to not win at this point yeah you're gonna have a scenario here where you're probably barring an injury have two rookie quarterbacks take their team in the playoffs very i mean like denver is kind of a coin flip basically right now but uh they control their own destiny in terms of who they play where they play them i think they're like minus 120 or so

basically across the board to make the playoff so you know they're not a shoe-in but that's a really tough path even though i agree with you connor i agree with sam's point too it's probably too long of a price but the path to it actually winning could be one of those, like, you know, CL LCL V situations in week 17, like all of a sudden Brock is, yeah,

he's like eight or 10. You're like, Oh, I got that 30, but he's just the actual path to winning is, is not realistic. Look, if you can pay your mortgage in Sklansky bucks,

then file. I mean, look at our Mikey Samer, still a defensive rookie of the year that was 150 we're down to like 40 like you know we're cooking so again probably not winning the award but you know

that 150 looks pretty good in the account you know yeah they want to give you the full cash out you know they want to give you they want to get your money their full money back you know I don't even think that my cash out is like above the offer because all these damn pricing models sam can you fix this or is this out of your you know first first day on the jobs i haven't even started yet let me just fix this so yeah that's a good good point it's a good it's a bad number i think but

like you said it's it's gonna be it's tough all right so here you go fanduel um no shout out to them but uh got 151 15 bucks to win 2300 my cash out is 13 and 45 cents i think they're pricing in the lclv they're like you don't want to give me cash down even extra five bucks because i might take it at this point. I mean, it's like, I don't know. We'll see. But, uh, I'm not cashing out for a dollar 50 loss. So it's true. No, I'd hold that,

hold that ticket home all the way. Um, I still think there's some mispricing in the defensive player of the year market with, uh, Daniel Hunter talked about him a couple of weeks ago. I don't know what, but yeah,

I think it was a couple, maybe it was like 50 or 60 to one to win defensive player of the year uh shop around he just he's way mispriced compared to even his teammate will anderson jr who's hurt not even playing um and hunters out there just like stacking 10 quarterback pressures a game and 50 on mgm hard to get a lot down there. But 35 on DraftKings. Caesars has moved that significantly shorter, but he still is way off in comparison to what I think his actual impact has been. And again, his team makes the playoffs. You know, TJ Watt, solid favorite there.

But like the numbers aren't great. He's had way better seasons in the past. I don't think he should be minus 200 like he is here on DraftKings. So I think going down the board a little bit. Trey Hendrickson, still interesting. We made the call out for him last week. Gets a little harder now. The Bengals with another loss.

They have to make the playoffs. This is a, you know, has to be basically tied. You have to break records if you're not leading a team defensively to the playoffs as well. That's why I think Hunter is interesting as well. So further down the board, again, you know, Dexter Lawrence, like 10-1. They're not going to the playoffs, so it doesn't really matter. Nick Bosa dinged up a little bit. He's been awesome, but he's won before.

It's going to be hard for him to compile the stats here too. Hunter just keeps playing awesome ball. So worth a look, worth a sprinkle if you didn't get down on the 50s and 60s a couple weeks ago. I think it's still viable where it's at now, depending on where you get the price. All right, let's jump into a handful of good games this week we got six teams on by but i think we have some interesting games in terms of how the playoff picture starts to shape up a little bit i think some of these are impactful the first one here is in chicago

the vikings on the road uh visiting the new look bears i guess three and a half basically across the market uh those are juiced we could be moving to a three there short total there 39 39 and a half um bears have a unique way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory they did that again last week against sam's packers there were again some encouraging signs with thomas brown's first week as the play caller we saw more 11 personnel. We saw more Roman Dunzane. That looked nice. More efficient Caleb.

Scrambled a little bit more. We saw a spike in RPOs where he kept it a little bit. Overall improvement helps when you have your offensive line. You're starting tackles back in, which they did. Connor, the ask gets a little harder, though, in this spot against Minnesota, who is just very, very disruptive on the defensive side of the ball with what they want to do. What are your thoughts here on Vikings-Bears?

Yeah, I mean, we're literally a Hail Mary and a blocked field goal from the Bears being 6-4 instead of 4-6, and I think the narrative is a lot different in that instance. It's like, oh, rookie quarterback, he'll get better, it's fine. But maybe Shane Waldron wouldn't have been fired. And it is good to have that guy out of any coaching after what we saw in the first segment of the games here. Um, in this match specifically though, I'm pretty worried about Chicago in this spot. I think mini is going to bring a lot of pressure. Caleb Williams under pressure this season, 41% completion rate,

4.8 yards per attempt. That's a 38 and 33rd out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks. Vikings get pressure, one of the highest rates in the league. Bears have only faced one other team in the top 10 of pressure rate. That was Houston. They sacked him seven times. He was pressured over 40% of his dropbacks. I mean, the only, I think, saving grace here is that Thomas Brown helped him get the ball out quick.

They ran the ball a little bit more. Like, yeah, they had the lowest time to throw. So, I mean, this is just a lot of pressure in my mind on Thomas Brown because they'll line. They're not going to be able to hold up on this. I mean, the Vikings defense all season has just been in their bag in terms of exotic looks, what they're bringing. Like, I just – I really struggled to get here with Chicago.

And I've been a Bears fan since day one in the offseason, and I really struggled with this one. And not to mention, like,ikings run defense is good too so it's not like oh they just rely on the running game i don't think that that's a reliable out either it's going to be a lot of like third and sixes for caleb williams and i mean i don't know what sack over unders if that's possible to batter to spray the board on individual players but that that needs to be a look. Yeah, both. Both. Sam, what are your thoughts here? Yeah, I mean, Bears offense certainly did look better last week,

but I think now, again, there's tape out there in terms of what Thomas Brown wants to do with this offense, giving Brian Flores that extra time to actually try and figure out how to counter that. I think the offense won't have quite as much success. I think Minnesota's one weakness defensively has been allowing explosive pass plays. They allow explosive passes at the second highest rate this season. Unfortunately, Chicago has not earned explosive pass plays that much this year.

They are gaining them at the fourth lowest rate. And again, you mentioned Thomas Brown getting the ball out of Caleb's hands quicker last week. But I do think the way to attack this Minnesota defense is in the deep part of the field, down the field. Minnesota is allowing the third most yak over expected on deep passes. They're tied for the second most separation allowed on those targets as well, according to next gen stats. So again, if there's a way that they can find to get some more deep shots, you know, try the fake, you know, wide receiver screen fake,

and then, you know, open the fake, you know, wide receiver screen fake, and then, you know, open someone up down the field type stuff. I think that's the way that Chicago is going to have to have success and, you know, break open a couple of big plays. So Rome longest might be a play here this week. We might not take a look at. Texas won. Yeah.

Just a beauty of those bets and promise real quick i think that this was i'm just remembering this now i believe last year luke getzey tried to do exactly what we were talking about with like the screens against minnesota with justin field because like yeah they bring so much pressure and then i think he was fired the next week because he was throwing screens to like a bunch of bums like it was like not a primetime game yeah but they won that one in minnesota i believe they were it was close it was a it was a good it was a surprisingly close game i remember and it was it was a shift in philosophy so i remember i think sam's right was pissed i just that's what i remember is like there

was a lot of screens and people were like this is the worst game plan ever but actually kind of made sense because again because the vikings bring so much heat like you just got to get the ball quick otherwise you're sitting duck so um yeah what was it there was two games last year the bears won the they won one of them in november 12 10 then they lost the other one 19 13 so pretty sure i'm pretty sure one of them got uh i think gets you got canned after one of them but um i don't know. Yeah. So you're interested in Minnesota here,

but it looks like we're trending that way. Like you might get, you might get a three. That's interesting because I know our guy Hunter played it. I know another big service played Chicago or Minnesota three. I mean, if we got Minnesota three back to three, I would be definitely in there. Yeah.

Well, I mean look you can just go on a profit x connor it's lay a three out there take a little bit of action you want to tell people about uh profit x if you people need to check this out profit x is uh it's basically I don't know future peer-to-peer gaming um just pretty exciting these exchanges have been you know they're real popular in Europe for years where you just basically can set your own market. Um, you tell people a little bit about that. Yeah. Just, just real quick here. It looks like you can get Minnesota at three. I mean, you can just take whatever liquidity they have there. It's minus one 22. I don't know. Sam

probably knows the math better than I do of buying a point from three and a half to three and the value of that in terms of the juice. But it looks like compared to the other books, it's like 13 to 15 cents for half a point. I don't know, that could be worth it. Maybe not, but maybe it's better to lay the three and a half. If you want to lay the three and a half, you can obviously do that too. It's plus 102. So I guess it would be a little bit more of a jump on ProfitX specifically from three and a half to three. But again, it's kind of the beauty of it. Decent liquidity there. Again, you just literally create an account legal in 46 states, use code BetSports. And I think they give you 3% back up to $300 on all your plays for a first month or two. So it's kind of like a, makes the juice even like less somehow. So it's kind of

cool feature. And for anyone not in a sports betting state in prison, you know, hop on over to ProfitX or another one of our sweepstakes partners. Cause it's, I don't know how long it'll last, but it's awesome. It's great while it is. So yeah, this loophole is pretty sick, especially for the jail states. You know, these Florida has got, you know, one book. You can't really bet in Texas or California, some of these major markets, but you can through these sweepstakes

partners and ProfitX is really cool. Again, you can put it on a t-shirt at some point, losers pay winners. The way that the juice works here is significantly 10, 20% different juice than what you're paying on standard lines for other books. So check it out. If you have questions, let us know. It's a great way to get down. Again, you can go ahead and make your own line and let someone else scoop the other side of it. So even better. You don't have to wait for the books to move to three. San Francisco is in Green Bay.

This is two and a half basically out there for the most part. Again, getting a little bit pricey in the two and a half. 47 and a half for the most part is the total out here too. Early action on green Bay. This is kind of around to pick them to open the week. Sam, some love coming in here to support your Packers. I think there's some key injuries that we have to monitor on both sides

that are going to be impactful to the handicap here. Nick Bosa and George Kittle banged up for the 49ers on the Packers side, Jair Alexander, the ninjury cost him most of last week's game, not thought to be serious. Did not practice today, though, so we need to kind of monitor things moving forward here. But tough spot. Important

for both these teams. The path for San Francisco continues to be really hard. Really tough slate of games moving forward. They're on the road in Buffalo next week. Not that we're in a must-win situation here, but they're 5- five starts to get a little harder. If you keep losing these games,

what are your thoughts on Niners Packers? Yeah, I think this is a bit of a buy low sell high spot buying the, the 49ers and hate to go against my Packers here, but both of these teams red zone efficiency has been pretty poor this year they're both below 50 percent in converting their red zone trips to touchdowns which is bottom seven in the league for both but san francisco is still fourth in the percent of their total drives ending in a score they've had an offensive success rate over 50 percent in three of their last five games.

And Green Bay's defense is struggling quite a bit more than they were early in the season because the turnovers have just gone away. In the first six games that they played, they forced 17 turnovers. That's like almost three per game. And then in the last four games, they forced just two turnovers. And those both came in one game. Their down-to-down consistency on defense has suffered. They have a 48.3% success rate allowed over the last four games.

So I want to buy the 49ers. I do think I would wait until we get news on Kittle and Bosa because I think those are two injuries or two players that are about as impactful as you'll get from a non-quarterback perspective. So I think Bosa specifically, but yeah, I struggle with saying that, but I think this is a buy spot for the 49ers. Yeah, it's a good point. I mean, I do think Bosa is massively impactful. Not that Jair is not for the Packers.

They do have like decent depth in the secondary. They have a lot of versatility. They can do a lot of different things and move guys in different ways without him. The Bosa injury is pretty impactful. Connor, shocked as I am that he didn't come up here and came up for the Packers. But what are your thoughts on this one?

Yeah, I was expecting. I'm proud. Sam's not a biased Packers fan. I did watch a Packers game with him this year, and obviously he was cheering for him. But he comes up here, talks up the Niners, and I agree with a lot of his points. I think that it's just, I want to be buying the Niners.

I think they're a really good team. They're just, they haven't put it on paper. Their metrics don't look like it. But not all that's, I mean, changed, you know, and except for injuries. And it's just been like a lot of random injuries that are rotating right now. And they just haven't been able to put it all together. Ran into a Seattle team last year that, you know, we'll talk about them in a little bit or last week that, you know, I think is healthier. And when they've been healthy, they've been pretty good defensively.

And so I think that's almost like a misleading result a little bit relative to like their actual strength and this Packers team, Sam laid it out great. Like their EPA looks good because of all the factors you mentioned, but their success rate is not that good. I think that like perfectly illustrates the differences between the two metrics. So for me, it's probably a Niners money line. Obviously the injuries matter. Bosa and Kittle do. I think if Bosa plays and Kittle doesn't,

I'll probably still take a piece of the Niners, whatever number that is. If neither of them play, I might be a little more skittish. The other one on the Niner side too is Charverius Ward, who's terrible, terrible news at the loss of his one-year-old daughter a couple weeks ago has been

not with the team since and impactful corner for them too. So him out of the lineup is also massively impactful. So the Niners at this number, two and a half, nice teaser leg too. There's some other options on the board too. You can, again, get them through the three and through the seven here, which is pretty nice considering the total is not crazy necessarily.

All right, next one. Again, another impactful game. The Niners, not necessarily scoreboard watching, but this is another one that is impactful for the NFC playoff race, specifically the NFC West Arizona on the road in Seattle. We have the uh well depending

on where you're at basically a pick-up short road favorite for the cardinals 47 and a half is the total here as well again cardinals are six and four uh everyone below them five and five so that's kind of the one thing that's nice for the niners like no one's really run away with this here the things start to get interesting if the the Cardinals do take care of business here, they would start to separate themselves and to get a little harder for the Seahawks on their path to the playoffs would get a little bit tougher. But yeah, Connor,

give me the floor here. When you talk to me about this matchup. Yeah. Like, as I mentioned, the Seattle defense wouldn't fully healthy or at least mostly healthy has played pretty well this year. Obviously he showed it last week and then now they draw the Cardinals, though.

I mean, the Cardinals are really interesting because I want them to be – they look like they were kind of down for the count offensively, you know, midway through the year, really struggling against anyone not named the Rams, essentially, to that point. Since then, last three games, 31, 29, and 28 points, they are tied with the Detroit Lions in both EPA per play and success rate for first overall in those last three weeks. So, I mean, they've been cooking.

They're playing well. Offensively, they're doing well. And so that's not something I necessarily want to bet against. And on the other side, though, Seattle and Geno, you know, against an Arizona team, that's not going to get much pressure. Stu mentioned that in our private chat earlier, and I thought that was a great point. Like we could see, you know, Gino and the Seattle offense play pretty well, uh, against Arizona. So maybe an over, but I don't know. I

worry like if, if the Seattle defense is for real, they've occasionally shown up in massive spots and the Cardinals defense offense has been, I don't know, not stellar the entire year. I worry that we could get a down spot there in Seattle might just be the side, but if obviously both offenses are playing well, like this is going to be a massive shootout so they can go one of either ways but i think that's how i'm looking at it right now yeah i agree with what connor said there sam the the element that can really impact seattle's offense this season has been the ability to uh you know stop pressure which they haven't done very well gino's done a good job at avoiding sacks, but the man can only handle so much.

It's been relentless this season with the amount of pressure. And part of it is the drawback rate is pretty high, so it just creates more opportunities. But Arizona, according to next-gen stats, the only team in the NFL without a defender who's generated 20 pressures this season, bottom three in pressure rate on the season. Clean pocket Geno.

Jackson Smith and Jigba's kind of cooking a little bit here uh i just i still don't believe arizona is a legit division winner playoff team um but hey i could be wrong i've been wrong before i'll be wrong again what are your thoughts on this one i think scattle needs to get back to throwing the ball more they they were super pass heavy to start the season, and they have a negative 3.1% pass rate over expectation their last four games. It doesn't make sense why. I mean, maybe it's because of DK Metcalf being out for a couple of games, but they're 30th in EPA per rush this year.

I think Kenneth Walker is a great threat in the passing game, but just hasn't shown necessarily the juice the last several weeks. And the Seahawks are still third in explosive pass rate this season. So I think, again, if they want a chance to stay with Arizona, whose offense I do think is above average, they just need to let Geno sling it some more. Again, he'll have his full set of weapons in JSN, Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. And I don't know why they started to get more conservative going towards the run here. So I think if they, again, even if it's just at you know, at expectation that they're passing, that's better than passing below expectation.

Yeah. Probably Seattle will play for me here. I just believe in them. And, again, stuck on Pryor's a little bit on both these squads, definitely carrying some Seattle to make the playoff tickets and should probably just let it ride. But I feel like this is a good matchup for them to kind of propel themselves into the back stretch here and kind of make a make a race for that spot here um it makes this west is going to be pretty wild here down the stretch all right another one

another impactful one in the west uh the ramps they are hosting philadelphia here sunday nighter uh the eagles are short favorites here there are some two and a halfs here on DraftKings a little juicy uh threes out there in other spots 49 is the total in most spots as well Philly defense is really starting to cook Sam I'm playing some good ball here what are your thoughts on Eagles ramps yeah I mean I was skeptical of the Eagles defense the last you know month and a half thinking it was a function of their schedule. Obviously, the performance against the Bengals, who are a top-five offense, was impressive,

but the rest was unimpressive. But last Thursday night, they turned me into a believer on the season. They're now fifth in EPA per play, third in success rate, third in explosive play rate allowed. They are only 25th in pressure rate but they're 10th in sack rate so so that's good and ultimately their the production is matching the talent that they have on defense as well I mean Quinian Mitchell and Cooper Dejean are incredible playing incredibly for rookies Zach Vaughn is the fourth highest graded linebacker

on PFF Jalen Carter playing like sort of the game record we expected him to be. But like Connor was mentioning during the MVP conversation, I think they're just going to continue to run the ball. I mean, their negative 8.1% pass rate over expectation is 31st in the league. If you remove the Packers, who just went extremely run heavy with malik willis those couple of games then the eagles are dead last and it makes sense why they are running the ball so well they're third in yards before contact per carry second in rush epa per play seventh in success rate fifth and explosive rush rate so they So they've been able to lean into the run this much

because they're doing it so well. And so the Rams somehow need to force them into some passing situations. They're obviously getting a lot of pressure on defense with Jared Verse playing extremely well. But Jalen Hurts is 18th in EPA per play allowed, or excuse me, 18th in EPA per play when he's pressured. So that's going to be the way the Rams win this game. But if the Eagles have their way running the ball, then it could be another blowout like we've seen

from the Eagles the past several weeks. Havingordan malata back is is impactful too the fact that they were so efficient running the ball without him was impressive as well just you know again top three graded pff tackle uh both you know in terms of you know run blocking and pass blocking he's bad came back last week that's massive for them too which is which is crucial if you look to even over the last four weeks that pass rate over x it's like negative 11 and a half so they've been even more run heavy as of late as well. A couple other nuggets that I found really interesting, like since week five, their best unit in EPA defensively,

they have the highest success rate as well. So they've been just dominant in both of those metrics. By far the lowest explosive rates, both on the ground and in the air too, which is interesting to see. And dominating time possession, which is part of obviously running the ball so well. And this is really cool. Since week five, they faced the fewest amount of defensive snaps in the league. One fewer than Kansas City. So really close, not massively off of like,

you know, the rest of the league, but you know, just dominating the ball. Though it's only one play separate from Kansas City. Kansas City is also second in the yards allowed over that time frame, but the gap between Philly and Kansas City is 400 yards, though it's just one play difference. So this Philly defense has been really good, and you called it out. I mean, the rookies, Sam, have been awesome. Quentin Mitchell deserves some defensive rookie of the year consideration. He's down to 3-1.

Cooper DeGene missed a lot at the start of the season, but he's been a revelation in the slot for them, supporting the run in a different way, like really kind of just locked everyone in their right roles in that defense. And it's just there's not a lot of holes talent-wise there. So they're definitely an interesting team here down the stretch. Again, the matchup for what the Rams want to do gets tough because of, you know, how well this past defense is playing too.

So I like the Eagles here, especially under three, which you can get on DraftKings here, still a little bit juicy. Again, these LA games on the road too in prime time, I know the Rams aren't necessarily the Chargers, but these feel like pseudo home games for these visiting teams, especially when they're good national teams too. Philly is going to travel well. They have fans all over the place. That probably a 50 50 split on a sunday night too and that gets uh it's pretty rowdy pretty quick all right last one just before thanksgiving

monday night football harbaugh bowl the brothers get together uh ravens chargers ravens short favorites here on the road in la two and a half is the number basically across the board though there are some short threes that are moving out there like sam's espn bet uh 50 is the total we have some 50 or some 49 and a half there as well um we keep kind of talking about the charge defense haven't really played anyone just in terms of looking at like you know dvoa on opponent uh offenses against still by far the easiest in the league uh we saw you know my discussion and kind of me plant my flag there looked a little rough in the first half um and then you started to see what could happen

there a little bit cincinnati started cooking um again this ravens team has a different level maybe bouncing back a little bit off of uh you, you know, a tough game in the division there, Connor, uh, talk to me about Ravens chargers. Yeah, it's, this is going to be a really interesting game because I think that Herbert and the chargers pass, right? The like three last four weeks has been like way, way, way higher. And that obviously matches up against really well against the Ravens defense that, I mean, they're just keep getting injured and they weren't really all that good to begin with. So now the injuries are just piling up, and, I mean, it's pretty tough scenes right now for them. And the Chargers passing game, meanwhile, has just been awesome. I mean, you know, there's the meme with, like, the Ferrari in the shitty garage, you know, like that thing.

Like, it's like Herbert's, like, finally driving into a nice house. You know, it's just like they're letting him go. They're letting him cook, and it's awesome. It's great to see. And it's cool because they're using the pass game now. It's like opened up the running game in a sense. Like the running game, at least when I saw when they started passing the ball more, just became like way, way more effective instead of just like the opposite,

which is kind of what they tried to do earlier in the season. And so in this spot too, again, pass funnel Ravens team here, Chargers pass offense cooking in there. This Chargers defense, I don't know how they keep doing it. We don't really know what's going on. It's one of those things that I've started thinking about in my head

that I'm comping this Chargers team to the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger almost from before, where they have randomly good defenses that they always just figure out, but they have a quarterback who can actually throw the ball and be like competent and like be a gunslinger when they need them to be. And like,

it's just, it's, it's turning out great. And so I'm a fan. I want to keep buying the chargers. Like before the season, we kind of said, we're like,

I don't know why, but I was like, I think that they're going to just be good. I can't tell you why. It's just kind of the vibes that I'm getting. And it's kind of another thing here. Vibe based analysis. I know it's not super. It's just kind of the vibes that I'm getting. And it's kind of another thing here. Vibe-based analysis I know is not super strong, but I mean, the metrics are great.

Like from an actual quantitative standpoint, metrics are great, Herbert looks great, and it's a good matchup. So Chargers money line, Chargers plus three. I don't know. Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm into it. Sam, how high do you turn the vibes dial when you're modeling?

Like, is there a vibes range? You can't ever have a vibes knob. Yeah. It varies by team. I mean, I think the Chargers are one of the teams you're dialing that knob for the most. I can't for the life of me figure out what the Chargers are. Because before their bye, they were, again, this ground and pound. They're running the ball a ton, team, you know,

what everyone thought the Chargers were going to be with Jim Harbaugh. And then they go to their bye. They come out passing a ton. They continue to pass a ton. Herbert is playing like a top three to four quarterback right now. I mean, some of the throws he's making are incredible. To build off the Ferrari analogy. I mean, some of the throws he's making are incredible to, to build off the, the Ferrari analogy. I mean, it, it feels like Herbert is the Ferrari, but he has like

off-brand tires, a like, you know, just like not great accessories because again, Ladd-McConkie playing extremely well, like he's been a phenomenal receiver for them. But I mean, then you got Quinton Johnson. Will Disley is like leading the team and receiving yards some of these games. Like he's making do with these below average set of skill group players. And then on the defensive side, to your point, like they haven't played anyone.

I found them after the first half of the Bengals game saying like, all right, I believe it. I'm in. And then the second half happened and they just got torn to bits. Now, I think part of that is the Bengals got into a situation where they had to play their strength. I mean, they had to pass the ball to come back, and that is their strength. But again, I think, to Connor's point, if the Chargers want to win this game, they're going to have to pass the ball because this Ravens secondary has been

torn apart. They're allowing the highest explosive pass rate I mean Pittsburgh didn't have a great day against them this past week but Justin Herbert's a tad better than than late late career Russell Wilson so I do think a potential live angle if the Chargers do get down big is to take the Chargers uh on a, something like that, because, again, they'll be forced to pass, which is the Ravens' defensive weakness. So I hope that the Chargers continue to pass. You know, I think Jim Harbaugh is also a bit of a wild card behind the wheel of that Ferrari

because he hasn't been, you know, the best in-game decision maker that we've seen this year. And in some cases, he hasn't necessarily had to be because they're winning at margin. So this could be potentially one of those games where there is a coaching mismatch between the two Harbaughs. Yeah.

Yeah, I think that you make a good point. We could have that. I think this is a great angle, too. You mentioned the live angle. If Baltimore gets kind of a little bit of control and might force the Chargers into what's probably their ideal script to compete anyway, it kind of takes the ball out of their hand and makes them be a little bit more pass-happy.

I think that's what happened there against the Bengals. I mean, I was down bad at halftime in that game. I'm like, man, I keep going on the show talking about this chargers defense is somewhat fraudulent i don't know how they're doing it it was rough and then i'm like all right some justification uh and i think i think there could be some points here too because this ravens offense sometimes play with their food a little bit gets a little bit wonky you don't know why they can't just run up the score uh and then all of a sudden they they can kind of turn the switch so yeah points here they still think 49 and a half might be a little bit light too uh the game script

we're talking about too and then maybe the charges are another nice leg of uh i don't know the ravens are a little bit more volatile i don't know i want to be on the other side of that teaser like but yeah i mean it's in the right spot if you happen to want to dance that way but you know there are probably some other options on the board but yeah i think it's going to be a nice nice prime time spot to take us into the weekend. Any other lines here, Connor, got your attention? I think we hit on most of them here.

I mean, I'm not opposed to laying 10, 11 with the Chiefs, to be honest, against the Panthers, which sounds crazy. But, I mean, I'm certainly not opposed to that at all, to be honest. And then Patriots. Yeah, but you drag me seven and a half. Yeah, I think plus seven and a half is kind of nice or the over. Like, I think that that both of those are fine. I mean, this this Dolphins defense, their metrics are really interesting because they

they obviously were like trotting out like Snoop Huntley and a bunch of bums like teams were like running like kind just running shit against them. They were just playing really inefficient football because they could. The games were basically over at halftime. Teams got a 10-point lead, and the game was over. And so now, I think it was the last three or four weeks, they're averaging 41 pass attempts per game against because Tua is back to normal Dolphins offense.

So I think the way to play this is probably more of the over because I don't really think that this Dol defense is necessarily all that good and they're just probably about average to be honest yeah 45 and a half on fanduel yeah it's interesting look there too sam anything else on the board that uh caught your attention this week no i mean to connor's point i mean you gotta be happy as a patriots fan because i'm back baby you're you're you're seeing what you want to see from Drake may in your rookie quarterback. We're losing and they're making the games close, but they're losing.

And so your graphic is going to be good. You're going to be able to build around Drake may. And again, I've been super impressed with, with what I've, I've seen from him so far this year. Uh, I mean,

all, a lot of the rookie quarterbacks that played, uh, quite well so far i think again you get some weapons around drake may i mean maybe t higgins joins the patriots this offseason type thing um but any case yeah uh i don't have anything else uh for this week just excited to watch some ball yeah i was so bummed last year and the pats went into denver in december and won that game i was like blowing the number one spot we're blowing

like we're gonna end up blowing the number two spot and just sitting here in draft season just like hoping the drake may would fall the drake may discourse got kind of like wilds wild yeah and he wasn't playing to be the number one pick. And then just out of nowhere, they're like, yeah, no, no, he's clear.

Number three, you know, just like didn't really, wasn't much of a reason why. Um, so it's these things that you're sitting around and you're kind of dubbed as one of the guys and we just get more tape on you over time. It's just a cycle of like,

all right, we have to find flaws in your game. We start to pick you apart. And all of a sudden you're, you know, not the prospect that we thought you were it's like still pretty young the youngest of the bunch there's that lsu highlight season bump that uh he got from from jayden daniels yeah that'll help too yeah and the uh last thing to watch out on there was a thing from coach speak

index today that how they're talking about like designed runs because like basically all drake mays runs are scrambling and the coaching staff like the last three weeks like we're not going to do that and then this week they're like well we need to figure out how to like you know he's evolving and uses game skill set better so we'll put more on his plate so like they're kind of leaving the door open for it and that'd be pretty awesome i don't know if that's necessarily what you wanted to be doing now just in terms of like an injury perspective but like in the future mixing in some like designed runs would be pretty sick or like just some rpos it'd be it'd be fun yeah just a little bit yeah not maybe three four five a game

i don't know something like that i want him healthy heading into the offseason so we can kind of you know hit that offseason program 100%. One splash play per game, that works because we just hit the longest rush. We don't need volume or anything like that. Let's just make sure we stay upright. A lot of it's really encouraging because the offensive line is terrible as well. It feels good. Everyone obviously felt terrible for me considering the last couple of years

because Patriots fans are definitely fans that people, you know, feel a lot of remorse towards. So thanks for welcoming back to you. Yeah. It was rough for a while, but you know, we probably deserve to have it be three seasons, a little bit longer. We deserve to have a rougher long. I'm not being honest. Yeah. It should have been, it should have been longer. Also, longer also by the way the bears pats game there were so many patriots fans it was crazy like there was a and the bears fans usually travel pretty well and they go to most games i mean it was like the stadium was filled with pats fans before the game like 20

30 minutes before the game there was like no bears fans it was crazy yeah i went last time they were here i didn't go uh this year but yeah it's uh you know they've been an easy fair weather bandwagon team for you know new fans over the last 20 years you know so is what it is so all right sam it's good to see your face buddy we appreciate it again genuinely genuinely thrilled for you uh and your family in the future this is exciting stuff for you so uh remind people where they can find you and your work or whatever that looks like, because they probably can't find all your work, but some of it. Yeah. All my work at this point is just going to be on Twitter or on Blue Sky at Sam Hoppin. Like I said, won't be doing any consistent written work or podcast stuff unless people like you guys get far,

far down there, their guest list and want to invite me on. But yeah, we'll be, I'll be a little bit quieter over the coming weeks and months, but got some, got some fun things we're working on. Maybe we can, you know,

get a little golf simulator together this winter or something like that. You know, Connor started feeling himself a little bit. So we got to put him back uh you know just connor started feeling himself a little bit so we gotta put him back you know check him a little bit he's rocking golf hats uh roped golf hats now i mean i don't know who this guy is i'm actually proud of him i really love it but it's this is uh it's a new iteration of connor i need something to get my competitive juices flowing now that i'm just i love washed of all time. So, um, you know,

it's just golf and that's a gym and gambling. That's like basically my life now, which is pretty lame, but whatever. I think that's what you do when you get old, right? Yeah. You know,

you're ready for, you're ready for a kid. Uh, really just take all those, uh, all those exciting three G's right there, you know? Yeah.

You're in it, man. You're in it. So yeah, shout out to Sam. Everyone find him on Twitter. Blue sky at Sam Hoppin. Again,

don't forget to subscribe to move the line to wherever you are taking this in for, for bats and YouTube channel, move the line, wherever you listen to podcasts, come back on Friday, 3 PM Eastern for the prop drop show with slop Connor and myself for Sam and Connor. I'm Ryan.

We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.