Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 12 NFL BETTING GUIDE: Best BETS, Odds & Predictions | Texans, CJ Stroud & More!

Episode Date: November 22, 2023

Get ready for Week 12 of the NFL season with our comprehensive betting guide. This in-depth guide is a must-watch for football enthusiasts and bettors alike, offering expert analysis and predictions for upcoming games, including a focus on the Houston Texans and rising star CJ Stroud. Dive into detailed discussions of current odds, top betting tips, and insightful predictions that give you the edge in understanding Week 12's NFL dynamics. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just a fan looking for insights into your favorite teams and players, this video is packed with valuable information to enhance your 2023 NFL betting experience. Don't miss out on our valuable betting strategies and NFL picks. Subscribe and stay tuned for the best NFL betting advice and predictions!CHAPTERS:0:00 Intro4:27 Jaguars vs. Texans Best Bets10:04 Week 12 NFL Betting Preview: Saints vs. Falcons14:46 Bills vs. Eagles Predictions28:04 Thanksgiving Slate/Black Friday Bets49:56 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼   / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼   / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼   / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼   / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼   / rynoonan  Follow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼    / sharpclarkenfl  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

hello and welcome to move the line presented by fan duel sports Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan joined here as always by my friends Connor Allen, Sharp Clark to talk NFL size and totals week 12. Cannot believe we're in week 12. Connor, what's going on buddy? How we doing today? Pretty good. You know, Thanksgiving week. It's a little bit strange. We're doing this show on a Tuesday here instead of a Wednesday. It's kind of thrown us into a bit of a scramble. It was kind of weird doing like my pre-week prep on a monday when there's still being a game so i don't know i was a little bit in a jumble there but overall pretty good you know excited for the week thursday and friday we'll present some interesting games i think so we'll see yeah i'm gonna jumble here as well um we'll figure it out it's okay it's tuesday we'll uh give our best with all the information

that we have clark what's going on buddy how we doing today good good yeah i'm a little behind too but i've watched all the games that are relevant to what we're going to talk about today so i i think i'm at least i'll at least have something to say yeah that's a big tuesday uh thing for me and i was kind of out of pocket uh with life things yesterday so i feel like a little extra scrambled. Tackles are such a priority for me and our subscribers. So I've tried to make up for that because we're going to have four games. Some are already out. So we're trying to catch up there.

So feel just a little behind. But we're going to do our best to give with what we have for information now. And very interesting market this week here as well. So typically here, Wednesdays at 4 p.m. Eastern here, obviously a little bit earlier, but subscribe to our YouTube channel here at 4 for 4 Bets so you don't miss a show. You should be able to find the podcast in your feed this time Tuesday evenings a little bit earlier.

Subscribe so you don't miss a show. This is free content. So supporting it goes a long way in helping us do all the cool things that we like to do here at 4 for 4. All the tools, all the stuff that we do content-wise, again, thumbs up, subscribe. Just go a long way, more than you would think here too. So don't forget, two shows a week, subscribing so you don't miss those. You're going to help get the Friday Prop Drop show as well.

That's typically Friday afternoons at 3 p.m. Eastern. We're starting 30 minutes earlier this week because that's when the Dolphins-Jets game starts. We're going to try to get a little bit ahead of it, see if we can get some Tim Boyle props or whatever's going to happen in that game. Join us. Get subscribed to this channel here so you don't miss that. You can find the podcast there as well.

The betting subscription is what gets access to our official picks, all the plays that we're making. You want to read everything that we write. That's paywall on the site. You need the betting subscription. The betting sub though covers everything that we do. And like I was here like trying to explain how great the deal was that we had last week. We are now in like freebie mode at this point. We are in Thanksgiving mode, Black Friday, Cyber Monday deals, betting betting subscription i think probably from here on out i don't know how we can discount it more it is 1999 for the rest of the season so again you get

all of november all of december all of january and then all of february for all the sports that we're betting with a betting subscription that's 20 bucks for you know three plus months of bets rankings articles tools projections the subscriber discord where we're betting you know horse racing you bet soccer in there uh kevin o'brien and his he's doing great stuff on the nba side you know that's where clark connor and i spend a lot of our time and send all of our plays in there too so 1999 you don't even need a promo code you literally just go to 444.com slash plans by the betting sub 20 bucks. Give us a test. You watch the show every, you know, every week, you kind of like us enough to come back most weeks. You haven't bought 19 bucks, pretty low barrier to entry to come and find out if we are worth our

weight at all. Again, for basically, you know, four months for $5. If you want to do any of the pick-up sites, prize picks, underdog, vivid picks, we have channels in there as well for play. So head over to 4-4.com slash plans. Sign up. More details here in the show notes. All right. As Connor touched on it a day earlier, a little bit unknown in particular,

like injury reports and such, things that are vitally handicapped. So we're going to do our best here. We're going to start with a few of the Sunday games. If you're looking for our thoughts on the Thanksgiving and Black Friday stuff, you can check the show notes and skip or just hang out until we get there. We're going to start with Jacksonville and Houston. Jags one and a half point road favorites here. Total has been on the move.

We're up from 44 and a half in the look at market fan duel, uh, has a 47 and a half. Basically everywhere else is out to 48 and a half. Connor, what are your thoughts here on Jacksonville and Houston? It's interesting because in their last matchup, the Texans, uh, scored 37 points, you know, went off. Uh, and honestly, I think in my mind have only gotten better sense. Like, you know, continuously it was, uh, I think it was a pretty only gotten better since like, you know, continuously, it was, uh, I think it was a pretty rocky road. You know, in the beginning we saw some highs, we saw a couple of lows here and there.

Um, but just lately it's been, everything's clicking and everything's moving forward for this Texans team. Um, and now on the other side, we have Trevor Lawrence and this offense here, uh, with the factor of getting Zay Jones back is opened up Calvin really for a ton. Like he was traditionally, or like at least lately without Zay Jones back has opened up Calvin Ridley for a ton. He was traditionally, or at least lately without Zay Jones, has been running clear out routes, running down the sidelines. But with Zay Jones back, they've been able to move him around a little bit more. So it gives Trevor Lawrence more optionality there as well.

So I kind of lean towards the over here. I don't have too much of a take on the side. If I had to pick a side, I guess I would probably pick the Texans at home. But I feel like that seems a little bit square, to be honest, at this spot. So I would just lean towards the over here. Yeah, Clark, it was an impressive bounce-back win for the Jags. You and I, I think we were on that side last week there too. I don't think beating the Titans is impressive per se,

but they really dominated in all facets of the game. That's what you'd want to see for a team that we want to – you want to think that they're a contender. You want to think that they are probably the right team to back in the division. Houston had a pretty nice win as well. Cardinals are kind of plucky now with Kyler back. This is an interesting comparative to what we saw back in week three. The Texans won comfortably back in week three. They got to a 17-zip lead at the half, extended that out. They won 37-17. Divisional prices right now, Jacksonville minus 250 on FanDuel. Houston plus 240.

Best number there on Caesars. I think it's also an interesting way to kind of cap this game if you had a particular lean. Yeah, I agree. And if the Jags win this, I think the division is theirs. They're playing in Houston, obviously. But we saw all the things that we've wanted to see from the Jaguars last week on offense. With Zay Jones back, just like Connor said, they started using Calvin Ridley in better ways. He is the key to their offense, I think. I

think without getting Calvin Ridley involved, they're just not good enough to make a run in the AFC, but if they get it going like they did last week against the Titans, and the Titans offense sucks, but their defense is still pretty decent, So it was an impressive showing from the Jaguars offense. Now they have to go on the road against Houston. And I think this is a very plucky Texans team. I understand why this line is as low as it is, but there has been a little bit of Jags money in the market. And it's been a little over money in the market,

the over money I get because we see the Jags offense clicking. We see CJ Stroud and this Houston offense clicking. So there should be points here, but the Jags money I. We see CJ Stroud and this Houston offense clicking. So there should be points here. But the Jags money, I think, is a little aggressive because, you know, ultimately CJ Stroud's arc as a player is still, you know, going up. Like his comfort in this offense, the receivers are getting healthy. Noah Brown missed last week, but he had Tank Dell and Nico Collins and Robert Woods may have all four this week. The run game was actually starting to work for the Texans. And, you know, granted it was the Cardinals defense and the Jaguars defense has been much better, but I think this is a Texans

team that is on the rise. There's every reason to think they're going to get better as the season goes on. And so if the Jags hadn't have looked so good last week, I think I would find myself on the Texans, but this is probably a pass for me at current numbers again, lean over, but the money's already come in and push it up past the value number for me. It's two pluckies in, in one little thing here. I said the Cardinals were plucky. Texans are plucky. So yeah, I mean any interest in like in teasing this, we're kind of in a spot for, you know, if you had any Texans love Clark you know, they're kind of in a spot for you know if you had any texans love clark um you know they're kind of in the right place where we'd want to consider that yeah i would definitely consider one and a half to seven and a half for a teaser leg on houston i like that look a lot all right

yeah it's an interesting one yeah i mean i just think houston's fun and part of that's like it's kind of like they're like the jags of last year or it's this team or you know maybe they're a year away from being a year away, but all of a sudden like things kind of fall out and they're in a spot where they're, they become pretty interesting. Part of it for me is like, I like the Texans to win just as a fan of football. Cause then it like, it brings them up a little bit. And what we do is we're pushing some of the AFC North teams down a little bit.

Right. So like, it's not even about the division at this point, it becomes like, who's going to get six and seven. So we don't have to have no offense to look like Kenny Pickett playoff game or, you know, DTR playoff game,

like trying to hedge that off as a fan. So yeah, it's going to be an interesting one. I do think that the Texans teaser leg is, is pretty interesting. It's also crazy how, how you mentioned the Texans offense here. It's like, you're like, Oh, Nico Collins tanked out Noah Brown. Like at those, at this point, those are like household names, you know, but like heading into the season,

you're like, look at these scrubs, you know, you're like, who, like, who is he going to throw to? Even if he is good, it turns out everything is just clicking. Like CJ Stroud's ball placement is incredible. These receivers are getting open. You know, of uh the bobby slowick's play calls and designs are great where he's like able to go through his reads it's just like it's magical what can what can happen when there's multiple good facets in place there yeah this is kind of the tank dell game uh where he really emerged in that first game as he uh against the jags he kind of blew up in that game i think he went for like six and 145 or something like that so uh yeah he's talented small guy but talented you know uh just fun to watch all right next new orleans in atlanta uh this is again shop around if you have a lean fan duel as the falcons has a one and

a half point home favorite here there are other books like draft kings and mgm that have the saints favorite by one total sitting 42, 42 and a half. Another crucial division matchup here. Both clubs coming off of a week 11 bye, which I think is interesting. The key news here to monitor is New Orleans quarterback situation. We already have the answer on the Atlanta side.

It is Desmond Ritter's gig again. For the Saints, Derek Carr is dealing with a shoulder injury and is in concussion protocol. They also before the bye in that last game against the Vikings, lost Marshawn Lattimore and Michael Thomas, both to multi-week injury. So it's Tuesday. Injury reports are really light on a Tuesday because most teams are off or limited or whatnot.

It's film day and stuff. So we don't really have the first injury report until Wednesday in most instances. But Lattimore and Michael Thomas are out in this one. So what do you think here, Clark? What do you think? This is kind of another very similar situation to the games we just talked about.

Yeah, where the slightly better team is on the road. So the spread is like virtually zero. Well, I guess let's start with, where do you see the line if it's Carr or Jameis? What do you think the impact is there? I think this is a Derek Carr line. Jameis did not look good in relief of Derek Carr in that game. I also didn't think he looked particularly good earlier in the season when he came in.

He's too inconsistent, too indecisive. He's not moving the offense the way Derek Carr has been. And that's, you know, Derek Carr has not been playing all that well, but it was night and day different for me when I was watching the film. So if Derek Carr is out, I think the Falcons move closer to minus three in this game. And I think if it's Derek Carr, then it's right where it should be.

I like Desmond Ritter. I like the move back to him. I think, you know, you gave Heineke a couple of games. He wasn't showing you anything that was going to change your season. You kind of know who Heineke is at this point, whereas Desmond Ritter still, I think has a little bit to prove the problems with Ritter and I think this is kind of what Arthur Smith is saying is the problems are fixable right

their turnovers their fumbles you know they're in in like every now and then inaccurate passes at really key moments if he can tighten up those things he can do more with this offense than Heineke is capable of so I do like the move back to Ritter I'm not sure that's really going to matter long term but for me I'd be more excited betting the Saints if it was Heineke but those injuries to the Saints matter I'm not betting this until I have any certainty on Carr this is another game where the spread is right and sometimes you just can't find an edge Marshall Lattimore has been awesome this year he's kind of been I think he's grown into like a little bit of an overrated cornerback over the

last couple years a lot of the metrics this year are saying he's probably a little bit underrated he's been he's been fantastic um so it's an important loss for them moving forward Connor any thoughts on this matchup here yeah I kind of of like the under, I don't know. I thought the 42 and a half seemed a little bit high for two teams with, I mean, uncertainty, a quarterback on both sides. We know that Atlanta is going to want to run the ball regardless. And Saints run defense has been pretty solid here. Second run to EPA per play. I mean, I could see that the Saints kind of doing the same thing here, just like going extremely run heavy, regardless if we have Derek Carr or James Winston. And I don't really see either team having too much success.

Now, randomly, these teams' passing attacks turn on. And so that's the risk, is that if one of them turns on, it like escalates the other. But I think in like a neutral state here, we're probably not going to see that. So I did play a little bit on the under here at 42 and a half. I thought it would be closer to like 40, 41, to 41 to be honest yeah i don't mind that look at all i feel like it was interesting to see him a him uh arthur smith get away from like the i don't know

a little bit of the fuckery that we've seen um and like before the buy was like leaning on his dudes finally a little bit and they're like reports that he's been kind of squeezed to do so. That bodes very well for the Falcons, I would think, moving forward. If all of a sudden you're going to actually lean on Drake London and Kyle Pitts and B. John Robinson versus trying to find ways to feature Matt Collins and, you know, run end arounds with John O'Smith and stuff like that. So I'm interested to see if that's sticky, if there's anything to that. And I think these are impactful injuries on the Saints' side.

So I definitely want to see how the quarterback situation plays out. But I would lean Falcons in this game. But I also think Falcons are probably more – I'd rather – similar to what I did earlier, talking about the Texans that probably want to take the 1.5 and tease it up, especially with a low score like this and the way that I think this game is going to go. So that'd be my lean.

I'm going to kind of watch the news there. All right. Next we have a Buffalo on the road in Philly. This is Philly three and a half on FanDuel. There's some slightly juice threes out there in the market as well. Total sitting between 48, 48 and a half, depending on your book.

I took over 47 and look at window. I have no idea why this isn't 50, 51. Maybe you guys can explain this to me a little bit or if you have any thoughts here. In my opinion, this is treating the Bills defense like it's 100%. We know that that's not true. It got even worse on Sunday against the Jets. We have starting corner Dane Jackson, slot corner Teron Johnson.

They both left the game with concussions. We've seen how that goes this season. You're sitting out the following week if you were concussed in game. Micah Hyde left the game early with a neck stinger. He probably plays, but we'll see. And then backup safety, Taylor Rapp, has been awesome when he gets on the field. Cut it off with a neck injury. Luckily, he's fine moving forward.

I can't imagine he's back this week. So they're paper thin on top of all these new injuries, cluster injuries in the back half against an Eagles offense that I think pretty highly of maybe a little bit more highly of than Clark. But what do you think you're wishing we'd be out with this total? Well, the injuries do matter. If all those guys miss, then then probably the total is going to keep climbing. We haven't seen everyone with a con guys miss, then probably, yeah, the total is going to keep climbing. We haven't seen everyone with a concussion miss, especially non-skill player positions. I mean, even last week, Kayvon Thibodeau suffered a concussion, came back against Washington. So it can happen.

We'll see how those injuries progress. But I'm actually looking potentially to wait until it's finished steaming over and then take the buyback on the under. Because, yes, the Bills defense suffered some injuries, and i'll probably need to see some of those guys in but what i liked about their game against the jets is that defense was flying around they were aggressive they were moving fast they were tackling this was the type of aggression that the bills defense has lacked since basically dating back to the second half of last year like they've been playing this kind of soft passive zone it's funny they fired the offensive coordinator and it was the defense that ended up looking very different to me now you know maybe that's just hey we know Zach Wilson can't beat us deep let's just you know pin our ears back and get after him but

I also think that it's kind of a a focus that the defense is putting in into being more aggressive so what we saw from the Chiefs last night was really causing the Eagles problems. Without Dallas Goddard as a safety valve, Jalen Hurts really struggled last night. His offensive possessions were really poor. Their offensive designs weren't good. They were throwing a lot of wide receiver screens unblocked. So it was like, you know, I don't know what they're expecting him to do. You know, one bomb to Devonta Smith was really all the offense they got going

and a couple of breakaways for Swift. But this is an Eagles offense that I still think is struggling to find its identity. And when it does do well, it's typically slowly, right? It's third and two, you run the ball, you got a fourth and one, you do the, you know, the tush push, you're running 30 seconds off the clock, 30 seconds off the clock. The only time that I really fear over is an Eagles game is when the Eagles are trailing because they can put up points in a hurry when they need to. We saw that last night. So if I don't think the Bills are going to take a lead in this one, which I don't think they will, I think this is the kind of game where the clock just keeps ticking and the Eagles, you know, kind of inconsistent offense. The Bills have also struggled on offense without

Dustin Knox. They've been limited in what they can do on offense. And if it wasn't for, again, a deep pass from Josh Allen last week against the Jets, the Bills' offense really didn't do all that much. So these are two offenses that I think are getting a little too much credit in the marketplace still. So depending on those injuries, I might be looking to play the under. Connor, we don't care about just one Devonta Smith bomb being all it took last night, right? Cash some money there. Yeah, no, that was, that was nice. But I, I kind of disagree with like a lot of what you just said

there. So I thought the bills, Bill's offense played pretty well against the jets considering they avoided the teeth of the defense, like the outside corners, they threw zero targets to Gabe Davis. Stefan Diggs wasn't even that involved. Dalton Kincaid played fairly well, 46 yards, but Shakira had like another big day over the middle, you know, had a couple of catches before that. Um, so I thought that that was Joe Brady scheming up to avoid purposely avoid, uh, the toughest parts of the Jeff's Jets defense, which in my mind was really encouraging. Um, and so, and, and personally, I, I just, I think that the office is way better without Dawson Knox. I think the whole 12 personnel shit wasn't even working at all. So I'm way in a different boat on that aspect.

But the other side too, this Bill's defense has been bad for six weeks, and then they just cleaned up on the Jets, and they're now injured. So they were already injured. I mean, they were playing terrible for five, six weeks. They were bottom five in basically every metric, and then cleaned up on the Jets and they're now injured. So like they were already injured and like they, I mean, they were playing terrible for like five, six weeks. Like they were like bottom five and basically every metric and then cleaned up on the Jets. They looked awesome. I will give you that a hundred percent, but I put zero credit into that because I think the Jets offense stinks out loud. Their offensive line is banged up. Their Jack Wilson is horrendous. Um, so I don't know. I see it completely differently. I think that the, like, it doesn't

mean that it's going to go over, but I, I really liked the over here. He's still even a 48 and a half just because it's Bill's defense. And I think the offense is interesting. Yeah. I think the number is the key, right? Like NFL totals have been lower this year than they have in previous years, because it's been really hard for teams to put up points. Like saw last week cardinals texans right everyone was on the over like look at how these offenses are going to move the ball game ended with what like 39 points it was like they weren't even close to the total uh 36 points maybe these it's really hard like nfl games for whatever reason the way defenses are playing the way you, you know, they're being called. I don't know what it is.

I have some theories, but we don't have to get into that right now. It's making these high totals really, really hard to hit. And so when you're getting a total that's, you know, getting close to 49 now, maybe it does touch 50 if these guys are out. Like we're talking about everything having to go correctly. Like last night, you know, the Chiefs moving the ball well, fumble on, you know, on the 10-yard line, interception in the end zone. It kills like a half a quarter of the game. Like that one drive is just zero points for half a quarter of the game. And when you start to add those up over the course of a game, it's really tough to hit those high numbers.

So I'm not necessarily saying, oh, the Bills defense is, you know, going to dominate this matchup against the Eagles. It's just I think there's reasons to put doubt on both of these offenses, especially the way the Eagles defense played last night. They're really coming together. And both these defenses have been reinforced with free agent acquisitions. So I think the bills losing those players early was really tough for them to handle in the first couple of games, but they've been building back up. And I, I think that better than their numbers have been the last few weeks, not so much like before that, but I think they've been trending up in a way that doesn't necessarily

show up in the metrics. And so that's what I'm expecting to continue. Yeah, I love the over. I have a lot of belief in both the offenses having success here. We've seen the Eagles have times this season where we've had the commander's game is the one that always comes to mind.

I think they scored like 37 points. They had two fumbles at the goal line still, and they still just, I know the commanders are a unique, I don't know't know like an outlier but they're one of the worst defenses in the league yeah i think maybe saying buffalo is one of the worst defenses in the league is probably a stretch it's not something i'm i'm confident doing but i think that they're not very good and i think that uh you know drowning in a little bit of the jetsets film, which Zach Wilson will, I think, make you feel like they're a little bit better. And again, like, I think part of the Eagles' defensive success last night

is more just drop balls. The Chiefs kind of not having, you know, a groove in that game. And yeah, the Eagles' team total is available on FanDuel, 25 and a half, 26 and a half on DraftKings. I mean, I absolutely love that. Yeah. Speaker 2 05,050 This is a high bet. Speaker 3 05,050 Yeah, it might be. I still can't believe that Clark missed Kansas city about last, last night. I mean, that was like the chiefs should

have scored 30 points. Like, I mean, that's literally MBS by the way, MBS sucks. Like he might be one of the worst wide receivers in the league like he's embarrassingly bad the kelsey fumble was worse and the even the fourth down and 24 like he hits justin wilson in the hands and it's like yeah yeah in the end zone he threw a pick yeah i mean that's like i feel good about my handicap i feel good about my handicap but you lose games like my handicap, but you lose games like that, you know, it's fine. Get back to me on the hat bet if you want the under on the Eagles team total. Yeah, it's one of my favorite bets.

We'll sell on a number offline. Okay. All right. Now let's move on to some of the Thanksgiving and Black Friday stuff. Three Thanksgiving divisional matchups another one on black friday we're kind of talking earlier there are good teams in action which is which is good but i i think we could be looking at four clunker island games over the next few

days to be interested to get your guys's thoughts here as we kind of buzz through these a little bit green bay detroit's the first one as always uh we're not kind of you know usually kind of buzz through these a little bit. Green Bay, Detroit's the first one, as always. We're not kind of, you know, usually kind of a stinker. That could be the travel game, or you can help your wife get prepared, or your significant other get prepared for whatever's going on in the kitchen. But, like, Lions games now are kind of fun to watch, especially when they're home. Seven-and-a-half point home favorites here. Total's been a popular early look, 44-and-a-half on the look-ahead window.

Now with the 46-and-a-half on FanDuel, 47-and-a-half out there in some other shops connor for me this is lions or nothing i'd love to get your thoughts i think chicago is a little frisky now golf turned over a bunch but i think it was good to see the lions bounce back like historically that's a game that detroit kind of folds like a cheap shirt um i think they're gonna have to tighten up things defensively we get into like the later part of december and january if we're going to talk about them actually being NFC contenders, those questions don't need to be answered here against the Packers necessarily. Aaron Jones out. I think we've kind of seen that this year already. It's not been great on the Packers side. What are your thoughts on this

matchup? Yeah, I don't have too much of a take on the game. I do think it's interesting. Detroit secondary was pretty overrated a couple of weeks ago. You know, they're like numbers like top eight, top nine and most metrics. And I think that we knew that was fraudulent. And that's kind of been the case the last couple of weeks here. And we've seen other teams have success. Now, I guess, how does that translate to what we saw from Jordan Love? Like in the last game that they played, they were down 27 to three at halftime.

So like third and they cut it to 34, 20 at the end of the game. So, but I mean, it was throwing basically the entire game, which I don't know if that's really where they want them to be. So it's like really, I think puts a major asterisk on, uh, you know, his efficiency numbers and for sure his total counting stats. Um, but I'm not really sure that there's like a great way for them to attack this Detroit team in general, because Aaron Jones is out. Um, like AJ Dillon is one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL at this point. And Detroit's run defense for them to attack this Detroit team in general, because Aaron Jones is out. Um, like AJ Dillon is one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL at this point. And Detroit's run defense has been pretty solid, uh, you know, in the whole season. So it's like, it's going to have to be

on Jordan love consistently moving the change early in the game to make sure that they stay with the game here. And personally, I don't have enough faith in that to happen. If I did, I'd probably take the Packers at seven and a half year, but I don't. Um, so for me, it's kind of just a stay away. I guess I would lean over here. Another note to lions in their last game against the Packers ran the ball 43 times lowest pass rate in the league of that week. But they also like ran it early too. It wasn't just when they got up, they just like ran the ball, David Montgomery, probably going to be more Jameer Gibbs this time. So not too much to take on the game, but that's just kind of how I see it going.ark's gonna be on the packers here am i right no no no i wasn't shaking my head i i think the

lions offense there's every reason to anticipate that they just roll this match up i mean playing at home they're healthy for the most part they beat them last time because they won in the trenches and they were able to capitalize downfield when you know when they were running the ball successfully forced green bay into tightening up at the line and it just opened everything up it was like everything they wanted to do worked against them last time and I I didn't see any adjustments in game that the Packers were able to make to kind of stop what the Lions were doing I haven't seen anything in the game since to think that the Packers defense has figured anything out Jabari has no idea what he's doing um they they're banged up although they might get some reinforcements maybe Jair comes back this

week he was kind of close to playing last week, but I don't think it really matters. I think this Lions offense is really set to kind of set the tone in this matchup and score pretty much at will. Even against the Raiders, the Lions kind of struggled in the red zone a bit. I think that was an aberration. I think they can get the ball in the end zone. So whether or not you like the progression that Jordan Love has shown, I think is key to this handicap and I do I do like what I've seen from Jordan Love the last two weeks have been shown a lot of growth when Aaron Jones went out last week instead of plotting along with AJ Dillon they were just like well let's just pass the ball you know and forget that we have running backs and I really like that move and hopefully they continue that

here because ultimately I like the over I think the lions are going to score and i think the packers can score um either whether or not they're kind of keeping up or whether they're they're kind of catching up i'm not sure um i think the spread is right right at seven and a half is like the exact median spread for me um but i think the over is still exploitable even at 46 and a half even at 47 i would i'd play it but at 47 and a half it's too high for me sending out free teaser legs I mean Lions one and a half um I think is a is a great look here all right uh Washington is on the road in Dallas Dallas a 10 and a half point favorite here FanDuel. 11's in the market as well. Total is 40.5.

Dallas has been a buzzsaw of late. They've been dominating bad football teams. And Washington, I don't think Washington is really – I think if you rewatch some of that game, the Dallas and Giants game – I'm sorry, the Commanders and Giants game, a lot of turnovers were very impactful in that game. I don't think Washington's bad per se. But again, they're coming off of a pretty, you know, Tommy DeVito and the Giants is not a great time to make a case for them to be a good football team. But 10 and a half is a big number.

Clark, what are your thoughts on Dallas and the Commanders? I think the number is justified based on the quality of play from these teams. We've seen Cowboys are really, really good at playing at home. The problem is, you know, last year on Thanksgiving, they were nine and a half or so point favorites against the Giants, and they were clearly superior, completely justified line, and they still lost the backdoor cover because the Giants were playing so aggressively in comeback mode. And, you know, Brian Daywad was scheming up good offense back in those days, they actually had an offensive line and Daniel Jones,

but I kind of see the same thing here from the commanders. Like when, when their backs against the wall, they're going to keep throwing passes, right? Sam Howell is a gunslinger to the core and it's not the kind of team that I really feel comfortable laying a big number against. And so this is definitely not a place where I'm looking to back the Cowboys.

They've been big favorites several times and they've covered several times. This is not one of those times where I think it's a safe bet to continue. So for me, it's commanders or pass. But because of how I've graded the teams to date, I think the number's right on. So it's a pass for me.

I would have liked the over, but the numbers come in at such a high number that it makes total sense to me. And for all the reasons I talked about earlier about playing those super high totals i'm not super into it so uh this is a pass for me and enjoy your thanksgiving turkey or whatever it is you're doing um maybe bet some props or something but uh for me that the the books and the betting market just did a good job of this game same how will it times connor what do you uh what are you looking at here yeah that might be the case, my initial read on this game was like, okay, maybe,

you know, Washington plus 11 could make a little bit of sense here just because they've shown, I mean, we're, we're just coming off of like two opposite performances here where Washington blew it as like a, you know, 10 point favorite in Dallas, you know, absolutely steam rolled the Panthers here, but you know, at its core, like Dallas can get pressure and Sam Howell takes sacks. Like it's his job. And like, that's just, I mean, it's going to kill a lot of drives. It's going to kill a lot of issues. So like, I think that if he was able to somehow avoid taking sacks, uh, you know, I think that they could easily keep this game close and I'd be interested in playing the 11.

Uh, but as it is, I just can't do that given, given what we've seen from him. So for me, it's kind of a pass there at that point. Yeah. close to i'm close to the commanders the thing is they their score steamrolled the panthers last week but it wasn't really as convincing as i thought it was when i you know you kind of see the scores roll in and you're like oh okay cowboys are taking care of business but it wasn't so much that it was like they did enough to kind of control the game and not really have it in doubt and then they just had a pick six that kind of extended the score um and obviously a pick six matters right it's points but it took longer than i expected watching the game back for the cowboys to assert themselves in that game so i do think there's a little bit of vulnerability there also the uh i think with the cowboys passing game like they

didn't look you know necessarily awesome uh last week in a lot of ways, but prior to that, they were rolling in this commander. Secondary is played brutal. And that's, that's a, just a big, big mismatch. Unfortunately on the other side.

Yeah. Come in the chat. Can this be a look at for Dallas? Dallas plays on Thursday night against Seattle. So back to back Thursday night games for Dallas and Seattle. So not a spot that I would necessarily highlight as a look at like a

non-division rival home game like that. So yeah, I don't necessarily think so. I think they want to get up for a divisional foe more than say Seattle. Yeah, they'll always get up for Washington. I don't think there's any psychological angle there, yeah. All right, next we have San Francisco on the road in Seattle. Moved out to seven um on fanduel there's some six and a half

in the market still as well fanduel's total 43 and a half they're also 43s as well i think the news to monitor for this one is the status of geno smith hurt his bicep uh last week's game against the rams did come back i suppose you know geno smith uh and 90 is better than than drew luck um but i don't know i don't know that i feel super good at a less than 100 geno smith against the 49ers who look if you had any concerns long term about if this is a that was sticky i think it's very clear that this is kind of who they were and who we thought they were trend williams back divos uh divo samuel back like this team is all that i kind of think that we thought they were early in the season uh really really like again like they think the brock purdy mvp stuff probably got out and you know jumped the shark a little bit man he's been

he's a really good quarterback and a really good system with a crap ton of weapons. Connor, what are your thoughts on San Francisco and Seattle? Yeah. I mean, it's going to come to no surprise, but I think the Seattle plus seven was a little bit interesting. I'm not saying that it's like wildly mispriced or anything, but I think it would, I thought it would be close to like six, especially at home for Seattle here. Niners lost to Funga as well. Who's, you know, I think, I mean, solid in a lot of ways have, you know, heavy hitter, not necessarily, uh, fantastic in coverage all the time, but, um, I, I don't know. I think that Seattle here is an

interesting leg. If we're getting Gino healthy, you know, again, that's, I think kind of a big if, so there's like a lot of ifs here with this. Um, if he's healthy, I think the plus seven is a good look. If he's not, then think the plus seven is a good look. If he's not, then it's probably going to stay away from me. So I'll probably keep continuing to monitor it. I did put a little bit on Seattle at seven though, because I don't think it really closes there. I think it's a little higher than I was expecting to. I just like San Francisco.

I thought maybe I'd be interested in San Francisco, like, you know, being at five or five and a half. So I think San Francisco is the side, but I don't have a ton of interest at this price. Clark, where are you at with this one? Yeah, I mean, I think the number's right. I took a little nibble on San Francisco minus six at open because I was, you know, uncertainty at quarterback. And if it's Gino Smith, that's just simply too low. I mean, sorry, if it's Drew Locke, that's way too low. If it's Gino Smith, I think, yeah, and that six and

a half to seven range is probably fair. The 49ers are an absolute truck and there's no way that I'd bet against them right now. Hufanga matters a little bit, I guess, but really the strength of their defense is the front seven. And so I think Gino Smith has been a quarterback in the last two years that has big splits in his play when he's playing against really good defenses. i do think the 49ers is a really good defense so uh it's not a situation where i want any action on gino and you know 49ers come out and score a touchdown early i think this is kind of a game where we turn it off by halftime because it's you know we've seen this film before like we saw it in the playoffs last year the seahawks made a game of it for a half and then it was like wait how did the niners win by 20 i think that's the disparity between these teams and I think it's the same this year

as it was last year so not looking to get involved on the Seahawks it's just a question of Gino Smith and Price for me on the Niners trip to fan starts to kick in things start to slow down you know you second you know visit up to the dessert table it This starts to crawl out to 20 points. We'll watch the second half another time. Maybe before we watch this next game. We have a Black Friday game. Friday afternoon, the Dolphins are in New York against the Jets. This was 6.5 in the look-ahead market.

Now the Jets are changing from Zach Wilson to Tim Boyle. It's a balloon to 9.5. 10 in most spots nine and a half is on fan duels total is down at 41 like if we have zach wilson who no one thinks anything of no offense as a quarterback in the nfl it's just not working out for you bud like i'm sorry you know good good luck i hope you can cash checks as a backup quarterback for a very long time. Starting quarterback thing has not happened. But the markets told us that Tim Boyle is significantly worse. And we've seen Tim Boyle a handful of times. He's actually spent most of his career in the NFC North. We did get three starts in Detroit a handful of years ago, Connor.

Did not go very well. What are your thoughts here on this now moving almost to 10 and 10 in some spots with Miami? Yeah, so I Clark and I disagree on this game heavily, and I think that's why it's an exciting one to bring up here at the end. My handicap revolves around a couple of things. So not just Tim Boyle being arguably the worst starter that we've seen this season at this point. Because we look at his career NFL stats, 60% completion rate, three to nine touchdown interception ratio. Yeah, nine interceptions, 5.1 yards per attempt. I mean, easily the worst starter in the league if you put it out over a full season. College stats, three years at UConn.

Maybe he was better at college, 48% completion rate, four and a half yards per attempt, one passing touchdown in three seasons, and 13 interceptions. I mean, truly a marvel he got drafted. He got drafted because he was 6'4", 240 pounds, comes in the NFL, makes buddies as Aaron Rodgers' backup for three to four years, and then made a lot of connections that way. Had a little stint in Detroit where he got a couple starts,

was, again, very bad. And now Aaron Rodgers, in the press conference, he's like, yeah, he's like my little brother. Like I love Tim Boyle, you know, like that, that is in my mind, the only reason he's getting this start. Now, I obviously, we already talked about that. Zach Wilson, I think very, very lowly of, you know, like again, bottom three to five passer quarterback in the NFL, but to make matters worse, I think there's a couple of issues and it's not, so it's not just a Tim Boyle thing. It's a Tim Boyle in a Nathaniel Hackett system behind a terrible offensive line that now at this point can't run the ball either because their offensive

line can't move the ball. So that's like, there's so many different factors here that it's like, even if you gave Tim Boyle an opportunity and a good system, I would be skeptical. But in this whole thing that's going on here, I have a hard time really pushing that at all. And then on the other side, the Dolphins, I don't expect them to have an offensive bonanza, but I do think that Mike McDaniels saw some things that Buffalo did with attacking the middle of the field and trying to avoid the outside corners. Maybe just, I don't know, throw one of their random outside receivers and just let them run wind sprints. Like Gabe Davis did all game and just like occupy sauce, occupy DJ Reed and just

attack the middle of the field. If they can do that even remotely, well, uh, they'll score enough to win and cover. If they can't, then it'll be a little bit closer than we like. Um, and I think the Miami defense is a little bit better than we've seen as of late. They're still coming together as a unit, kind of getting healthier. So that's my handicap. Nine and a half, I like. Ten is still a lean. I don't think I'd play past that, though. Clark, what do you got? I got a question, first of all. How big is Boyle's leash as a quarterback in this game? Ooh, good question. Do you think we might see Trevor Simeon?

Because Zach has been bumped down to three. I would not play this with Trevor Simeon, by the way. I would not do this one. Right. Trevor Simeon, if Trevor Simeon starts this game, it's probably seven and a half. And I don't, I'm not saying my handicap relies on Boyle being benched. I think there's multiple avenues here.

I was so intrigued. I was really waiting for this. I think there's multiple avenues here. I was really waiting for this. I think there's multiple avenues here to success for the Jets. And most of it comes down to the idea that I don't think the Dolphins are equipped to do what the Bills did because Tua is not Josh Allen. Tua has struggled with good defenses. He's a system quarterback. Like I know Tuanon, whatever, you're not even watching this, so who cares? a he's a system quarterback like i i know to anon whatever you're not even

watching this so who cares but it's true he's a system quarterback he came out he came on the scene early last year and just absolutely dominated for like five or six games sucked down the stretch for four games comes on this year absolutely dominates for five or six games again mostly against bad defenses didn't show anything in the big matchups that he that he faced and has now faced or played three straight games that were really just not good and so i think with the film that people are getting on mike medano system like there's there's no counterpunch from the dolphins and they're going up against arguably the best defense in the league and the jets who have elite corners that can really disrupt things for Tyree kill. And Tua is one of those quarterbacks that like, when things are going

well, he is incredible. His timing, his accuracy, his feel for the game is quick, quick decision making. But when that first read isn't there, and then he looks for the second read it, like it gets downhill real fast. And I think that's kind of what the jets are going to do is disrupt this dolphins offense. And so my concern is one, not concern, my hope for the Jets, because I'm betting on the Jets. One is that, you know, my offense for the Jets is graded as the worst offense this year or last year of any team with Zach Wilson. So the downgrade, if there's a downgrade to Boyle, like, I don't even know what that would look like. They have to be so bad to justify the price. And even with my Zach Wilson price, I make this seven and a half.

So there's option one is Boyle's not as bad as Zach Wilson, right? He's not as mobile, sure. But if he gets the ball out quickly, it could really be better for this Jets offense. The quick decision making. I don't know if he's got it but if he does then he could be a better version of this jess office than they were with zach wilson that's option one option two is they just trade punts back and forth he's not getting it done the dolphins aren't getting it done eventually they're like this isn't working like put simeon out there and now you get that kind

of extra boost from having simeon come on the field maybe he delivers the become you know the win or the cover i think there are multiple avenues here that basically hinge on the idea that i think this dolphins offense has been struggling for a while and this is a terrible spot for them to get back on track so uh jets defense takes the day uh if they get a couple turnovers for touchdowns or just a couple turnovers one of them for a touchdown i think the jets alive to win this game and so I like them on the money line, plus 410 with the variance of the quarterback. We should, okay, hear me out. First of all, I love Clark. I love, I really do appreciate a different perspective.

Yeah, that's it. I think that that's, you know, that's a unique handicap. And first of all, we can rule out part a because we have tim boyle tape we have some boy we've seen him he did he's not going to be all of a sudden the quick processor he's not going to quickly get the ball out accurately but more quickly than zach wilson possible but i mean he like literally was he's just never been good ever in his entire life. Like, I don't even, was he good at college at UConn are just stunning. That is a sham. They make Josh Allen look like a superhero at Wyoming.

You know what I mean? And like his college stats were largely asked to like, you know what I mean? Like, Oh, I also, I also want to be clear on bet sizing here. Cause I, I bet the jets plus 10 and I the Jets money line for a much smaller bet. So this is one of those where you want your money to be in on the higher value play and you don't want to over leverage into a high variance plus 410 position. But I do think that there's value in there. If you like the Jets, I think you should be splitting between both sides okay i have a proposition all right so how about this i i got the nine and a half you got the 10 if it lands on 10 no no hat bet if it's 10 or jets win obviously

you win the hat bet or 10 or 10 and a half or higher 11 or higher i win is that fair yeah that's fair all right cool i feel like that's like that's a good one. Love that. I'm going to be wearing a hat two weeks in a row. I want a free TV. Yeah. I love it. The point I tried to make at the top, I hope it's an interesting

game. We've got an island game on a Friday that could be fun. If it's just an absolute snoozer, that's not great. I'm hoping Tim Boyle shows up a little bit or If it's just an absolute snoozer, that's not great. So I'm hoping Tim Boyle shows up a little bit or that it's somewhat interesting. So any other thoughts here that works on the board? I'm going to, SGP Clark is coming back for a second because I absolutely killed it with the Tommy DeVito lap last week. So my SGP hat is I'm going to test the decorrelation prices for boil passing yards and,

you know, jets money line or jets spread because sort of, that's kind of my handicap, right? It's like entirely defensive led win. If they give me an extra decorrelation boost for kind of partnering up those two things, I think there could be value.

I'm gonna play around with some stuff. I'll let you guys know in the discord uh what i come up with sort of like a boil passing yards under but the jets win yeah right if they if they give me a boost like in terms of what's correlated we'll give you some extra odds like you know trevor simeon comes in sure great get like a boil pick i'm curious honestly curious what that price is going to be like i mean what is a Boyle interception price? Uh, also I did look up his high school stats. He,

I confirmed was good in high school. Well, kind of 28, 21 touchdowns, eight interceptions, uh, 190 yards a game in high school. That's not bad.

It's also interesting. I, Tim Boyle and I graduated high school the same year. So that's kind of fun. Would you look at that? Yeah, I feel like – I don't feel bad. I'm not punching down on some young guy.

They're the same age. Fuck you, Tim. Nobody's worried about Tim Boyle. He's doing fine for himself. Yeah. He'll go have some ayahuasca, whatever he's doing with Rogers um you know mushrooms and however they bonded i'm sure they're uh they'll be fine um patriots shouldn't be three and a half point favorites against anybody right now um i was wondering about that they shouldn't they have no business being three

and a half point favorites against anyone you're right noon. Noonan, you're right. They should be six point favorites. Oh. I thought you were going to back your boy Danny. Oh, man. No, no, no. Tommy DeVito is about to get his face ripped off by the Patriots. By who?

Who on that defense is ripping faces off? No one's ripping faces off on the defense anymore. Yeah, but they play discipline and coverage. And the only thing the Giants were able to do against the Commanders was capitalize against blown coverages and have Saquon Barkley make six sideline catches. That's not going to work against the Patriots. He takes nine sacks against that pass rush in Washington.

Good luck against Bill Belichick with two weeks to prepare. And Bill Bel to prepare. I'm not buying the whole Patriots are tanking thing. Bill Belichick has too much pride. This is a game. We always talk about how much we love backing Bill Belichick against inexperienced quarterbacks. Tommy DeVito might be a dream for him. Ults are in play. This could get ugly. I like it when he has dogs to go get the job done. Right now, he does not have – God, I hope they lose. I really hope that they lose this football game. Fantastic. That's it.

We don't even know. Bailey Zappi? I don't care. Lee Cunningham? I don't even know. Yeah. I get it. I get it.

Look, I think it's a – I don't want to get into draft talk we're six months away it feels like like a three dog draft um there are like three stars you want to be in the top three yeah don't mess that up by winning a november game against the giants and costing yourself a top three pick uh yeah connor any thoughts on uh on the board here for week 12? No, but I have a ticket on Patriots' worst record that you guys laughed at in the preseason, as well as Titans' worst record, which is still long shot and Giants now. So I really need the Panthers to step it up, man.

This could be the week. This could be a week. Yeah, against the Titans, this would be a pivotal week for me. I'd really hope that ticket is going to get a dub here. I don't know if you saw Kevin Cole, one of the data guys tweeted out a chart. It's like for rookies in their first 10 games, it was like a PFF grade and then like EPA per player,

something like that. And there was like different buckets of, you know, like basically that I like outlined and Bryce Young was obviously in the lowest bucket of like 10 guys. And the best guy in that bucket was Josh Allen, which Bryce Young obviously has none of the same attributes. And like that, that's just not even on the spectrum. And then the next bucket, which you want to lump in, it was like 25 guys. The next guys were talking about like

Derek Carr, maybe Andy Dalton. Like these are guys you don't really want to aspire to be that you're not super stoked that you spent a first overall pick on so things are not rosy right now for Bryce and I'm worried but at the same time I'm not running to lay forward with the Titans there but I you know I don't really have too much you know across the board this week since we're on Tuesday but I wanted to add that on the Panthers Titans game there because I need I need a big Panthers dub but I have literally zero confidence in it yeah it's Panthers or past you can't can't lay forward the titans i don't think i strongly agree with that yeah yeah you just can't with the titans right now the will levis roller coaster by the way has not been that fun lately uh you

know i was very excited to hop on and it's been like uh the lamest ride in the in the role in the park lately it's not i had someone message me that was like, hey, Jags-Titans box tour looks a little misleading. They had 5.6 yards per play or whatever. I'm like, yeah, they had two bombs when it was already a 27-point game. They weren't able to do anything outside of that.

Yeah, not good. Not good. Oh, all right. Yeah, like I said, Tuesday, that wraps us up. That's the best that we can do for now. But again, more to come on the site and in the Discord. Again, if you missed it at the top, $19.99 for the rest of the year. No promo code even.

You just head over to Betzberts. 444.com slash plans. Betzberts is our parent company. Go to Betzbertsgolf.com and buy a subscription there too. 444.com slash plans. Betsworth is our parent company. Go to betsworthscolf.com and buy a subscription there too. 444.com slash plans. No promo code 1999 for our betting subscription. We'll take you through the end of February to continue to access all that we do and all the bets that we have over on 444.

So good stuff as always for Connor and Clark. I'm Ryan. We will see you on Friday a little bit earlier for Prop Drop. Enjoy your Thanksgiving or whatever you do with your family or whatever you do to celebrate. Hopefully you're off work and you enjoy yourself.

Until next time. Thanks everybody.