Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 13 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: November 27, 2024

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 13! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 13 betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move line presented by draft kings sportsbook ryan noonan joined here as always by connor allen week 13 thanksgiving week what's going on my friend yeah not a whole lot we got a couple of i would say actually a couple interesting games on thanksgiving this year which is cool usually there's like maybe one. I mean, this year there might only be maybe one too, but I'm interested to see Chicago continue to develop. And then the Friday game, we will still be live with John Hyslop during the game, 3 p.m. Eastern, I believe. So our normal time that we always do, maybe a couple of live bets during the game, who knows? So I'm excited. It should be a fun week and then you know a fun uh rest of week 12 or week 13 now are we 13 or week 12 yeah week 13 i i wrote up the week 14

look ahead lines uh about an hour ago too so my brain is always warped it's extra warped that's usually a thursday task but yeah we you know kind of lose thursday for the most part tomorrow we get to hang out and watch football which is which is lovely i hope they're entertaining games island games can be such a just suck in general uh it's just sometimes the worst time to be on social media because people are just you know live tweeting the same thing that we're all watching you know give us all the hot takes everyone's terrible you've already you fired early today with the you know get ahead of the hot take mainstream uh media with your uh to uh to and on in the cold takes uh we could circle back to that for sure because i think it's interesting uh but you know i think you had

a good reasonable thought uh but yeah it's it's sometimes terrible so the football gets bad i don't know if your family sucks uh you know that could be a thing too for some people family's hard my family is awesome but uh you know they could be they're busy as well so hopefully everyone enjoys their uh their football time but yeah a little bit normal schedule for us in terms of the show obviously we're here doing our game breakdowns uh could do a power ranking today which i'm excited about you know a little bit more man talking about mainstream media uh i googled power rankings connor just to get us in i don't know if you did this too yeah overwhelming apparently we are missing the boat here at four by not putting out a weekly power rankings because literally every football uh content

creator in the space or at least you, property puts out some form of power rankings, which is pretty wild. Don't give Luis any ideas because, you know, screen, you'll be our expert power ranker as well over at 444, which I think you could actually do pretty well. And I'll give him a shout out now. Sam Hoffman tweets out like a aggregate power rankings each week that uses a couple of different sources. That was kind of like my baseline to make sure that I wasn't like crazy and kind of helped more in like the, I don't know, like the seven, six plus range of a couple of teams. But when we talked to that a bit, I thought that that's like a super helpful starting

point on like where you are relative to the rest of the market. And I thought there was a few surprises. So yeah, I use one of those core tenants that Sam uses. It's kind of a guiding light for me too. So I think it's an interesting process. So yeah. But I think it's a good time to talk through it. We start to get a little bit to this spot.

The old Bill Belichick quotes, nothing really matters until you get to in past Thanksgiving in terms of the NFL football season. And here we are. It's going to start to get in time in terms of what matters, playoff seedings, all those things, our team's actually tanking, all those types of things really start to matter here down the stretch. So don't forget, come back on Friday.

Same as normal, 3 p.m. Eastern for Prop Drop with High Slop, Connor and myself. We went 0 for 7 on our Millie Parlay this week. It doesn't feel good. So we're going to get back in the wagon this week, get some winners. We'll get the books right where we want them, a little rope-a-dope, just taking it on the chin. And we're going to come out and hopefully get square here in week 13.

Feels like a good week to do it, coming off of Thanksgiving. So any Thanksgiving tanks, Connor? Also, mandatory thoughts around coming off of Thanksgiving. So any Thanksgiving takes Connor also, you know, mandatory thoughts around this time of year. You got to give your side rankings or, you know, you're an anti-Turkey guy. I think you pushed back on Turkey the other day when we were talking about this, any Thanksgiving thoughts in general, in terms of, you know, how you take in the day or what to expect for the Allen Thanksgiving

tomorrow. Yeah. Thanksgiving is tough because I think a lot of the food is pretty bad unless you're a good cook. The good turkey exists. It's just that most people are not very good cooks. It's just dry and pretty terrible for the most part. I've had plenty of terrible turkey. Also, I've had some great turkey. I had deep fried turkey last year for the first time or two years ago maybe and that was delicious um you always see those videos people like dropping the turkeys and like the you know flames going everywhere because the oil bubbles over you definitely got to be careful on that we did it outside we got our own like separate thing out there it's an outside it's an outside task yeah yeah um but turned out great it was it was very very good um but overall

i think you did it on the head like the, the sides, in my opinion, are generally where it's at. Like, you know, mashed potatoes, mac and cheese, all that kind of stuff is great. But growing up, we were like an ordered Chinese family, you know, on Thanksgiving because it was just like me, my dad, my brother and sister most of the time. And so we would get, same with their Christmas and like Christmas Eve, we were like sushi Indian or like Chinese basically rotate some type of Asian cuisine just because, I mean, there wasn't that many of us and the food wasn't that good compared to what we would get like for that. So that was, which is maybe a hot take, but because I know your wife is like a fantastic cook, but.

Well, I mean, you got three or four people, you don't need to be cooking an 18 to 20 pound bird. Like what do you get out of leftovers like three weeks or what that'll taste terrible after like two days three days so my sister came into town from florida um staying here um with my brother-in-law and we don't have that big of a place but you know we're getting you know everyone's close we're hanging out this week um but it's not many of us it's just my you know my four and uh my sister my brother-in-law but my sister is like no we need a 20 pound bird it's like why do we need a 20 pound bird she's like i'll eat leftovers for the rest of the time i'm there like but like okay you could probably do that on a 12 pound bird but no turns out i did not know this

um they eat they do the turkey thing like three to four times a year they're just like they get a big ass bird do it up and do thanksgiving meal ish type of vibes all year round so to me you know you lose a little bit of it uh you know, like the novelty of it on Thanksgiving if you're doing it all the time. And then like there's just two people. You need a 20-pound bird routinely. It's a lot of meat. So I personally like there's just parts of that bird that I'm not interested in eating. So, yeah, it's definitely interesting.

So we'll have leftovers. Anyone needs leftovers in the greater Chicagoland area, you know, right out here in the Northwest suburbs, I will, I will have some, uh, some extra bird for people, but, uh, yeah, I'm a big stuffing guy. I don't know where you fall on stuffing. Um, so I grew up, just loved it growing up and I didn't find out until later in life that the stuffing that I grew up loving that my grandmother used to make had a lot of liver in it. And it's like, you would have told me that ahead of time. I would not have been down, but now it turns out it just ends up being delicious. So, but all of it, anything you can cover in gravy, good sweet potatoes that are just terrible for you with butter and brown sugar and nuts on top. That is like a decadent dessert that i love we have multiple

mac and cheeses my son made one and my wife made one and so yeah i'm i love it food family football um if your family's decent it's just a great day i absolutely love thanksgiving yeah this is this is also the time of year where i've had i'm on my third friendsgiving this weekend um so i don't know like different groups of Friendsgiving, which is great and bad, but you also find out again, like who are not very good cooks. We had this mac and cheese. I mean, I kid you not, it was the worst mac and cheese. I don't know how you mess with mac and cheese.

It was literally like boiled noodles on a tray with like sprinkled shredded cheese on top. Like they brought two trays. Only half of the first one was eaten among 20-something people because it was so bad. Then we got a video from someone, one of the hosts the next day literally just throwing the rest in the trash because it was

so bad. No butter, no extra cheese, just small amount of shredded cheddar cheese over boiled noodles. It was honestly a crime against all mac and cheese and sides in general it was it was embarrassing was everyone cool with it at the time or did you call up the person we didn't we didn't know him that i didn't know him that well so like that was like

i think it's like they were kind of like new i think to the friend group ish so like and yeah so i mean we all like all the guys were like talking mad shit you know because we knew each other but like i mean it was i don't know. It was like, it was, it was scary. If I did know them, oh, they would have heard it. I would go like, this is. Yeah, it's rough. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. Hard to mess up mac and cheese, Bob, but you get a good one. You know, it's a differentiator. Like it's hard to have bad. It's like pizza, right? Like it's hard to have bad pizza, but then, you know, when you have like really good pizza, really good pizza is great. Hard to mess up mac and cheese.

But, yeah, hopefully everyone enjoys it, enjoys the Island games, Bears, Lions, Giants, Cowboys. Maybe a little bit more interesting with Drew Locke. The Miami-Green Bay game could be interesting. And then we had a Black Friday game. Again, the same time they were doing prop drop. That could be a blow out too but all the chiefs don't tend to run away from people so uh we'll circle back to those games

real quick let's get into the power rankings thing a little bit um challenging because i just talked about like hey let's do this and then as i'm going through it i didn't want to like guide you or i just want to kind of see where we're going. The thought is like, all right, power rankings as of right now, heading into week 13. For me too, I'm kind of combining with like where I think these teams are headed versus like a timestamp of where they're at after 12 weeks. And I kind of agree with you. And I think you were touching on it too.

I think it's fairly easy. And I think we'll probably have some discrepancies in terms of where the teams are ranked. But for the most part, I'm guessing that there are seven teams that we definitely both have in our top 10. Maybe not. Maybe just six, but I think probably seven. And then I think there's a wide swath of teams that could make up eight, nine, and 10 that would make up basically like your top 15. I think I could have a team at eight that you could have at 15 if you were to go all the way out through.

So I think it's a really interesting process. So, yeah, how do you want to tackle it? You could just tell me. We'll start at the top like one. I guess we'll do top five first. Let's do top five and then we can see from there. I had Lions one, Ravens two, Bills three, three chiefs four eagles five nothing out of the ordinary there where are you at interesting yeah so i got uh lions one uh bills two i had the

chiefs three this is close uh chiefs three eagles or yeah eagles four uh packers five whoa so raven's not even top uh in the top the ravens at six okay all right but close real close real close in there um just kind of been a hater all season i'm sorry um i think they're really they're really good they look really good the other night um against the chargers part of that though was again my chargers fraudulent defensive take not dead undertaker dot gif on the chargers defense uh kind of last couple games against pretty decent offenses they've uh kind of looked a little bit more human after you know some pretty outstanding metrics basically um so that helps there too yeah the ravens are in the mix for sure i see i struggle with this because like the ravens again like i wanted to put them like below like bill's chiefs i mean they manhandled the bills i mean that was like a drubbing uh and so that's

what i struggled with and like i agree i keep wanting to fade them but i was like you know i i just had to kind of slot them in around there i i don't disagree that there's there's probably paths that them losing each of those teams easily pretty easily. But that result has not really played out at least so far, you know, with some of that stuff, but what did you have? Do you have five Packers? Five is what you said? It's probably have the Ravens ahead of the Packers, but yeah, I've been bullish or main bullish on the Packers. I think they're just going to kind of get, you know,

hit the ground a little bit here. It's just been kind of an uneven season and there's still eight and three. It doesn't feel like they've been an 8-3 team. That's not much difference in the record that the Ravens actually have as well. And I think they're more balanced on both sides. I don't think they have the upside offensively that Baltimore does, but I think they have a better defense. Probably not by a lot, but I think small.

And, again, we're looking at the top teams in the league, and we're splitting hairs a little bit. And I do think there's some good stuff that's happened in baltimore i think the ardarius washington move at safety they cut eddie jackson um you know they benched marcus williams and we've seen significantly fewer explosive plays against the ravens and that's been kind of a bugaboo for them so if they can kind of figure that out they probably start to show a little bit more of their teeth it's hard for me to to not have the bills ahead of them even though i know they lost head to head um the bills seem to be one of those teams that kind of has their number but i'm interested to see if that is a matchup that we get in the playoffs whoever comes on the

other side of that whatever that two three um matchup is you know there's three teams in the afc with the the bills chiefs and ravens i think are are know, those three teams in the AFC with the, the bills chiefs and Ravens, I think are, are comfortably ahead of anyone else in the conference, which I think is going to make for an interesting playoffs. Yeah, that's totally fair. One other team that I really struggled with that. I don't think anyone really has a good feel on from like putting one number on is the 49ers based on Brock Purdy's health. He's healthy.

I had him at six. That was like my asterisk. If he's not healthy, I don't think they belong in the top 10. Where did you have him? Out of your top 10? I don't have him in the top 10. It was hard. But part of it, too, is so, you know, this week in particular, you know, we have questions on Purdy, Bosa, and Trent Williams, right?

And, again, arguably, I don't even know if it's necessarily arguably, the three most impactful players on their team didn't play last week. We don't know their status this week. Limited practice today from Purdy, but nothing from Williams and Bosa. It's the schedule, man. If you look at Buffalo this week, they have some of their tough games. I think they're going to probably, I mean, again, depending on the health of Purdy, Chicago and L.A.,

they should handle no problem. They've got to go to Miami. They've still got Detroit on the schedule. And that Week 18 game in Arizona probably matters quite a bit. So, like, they're tough. They're definitely in the mix. They're, like, first out for me because I still wanted to be long on them all season.

But it seems like they just continue to have these issues mounts that becomes really problematic. And, um, you know, it gets really hard if they lose this week, all of a sudden they're five and seven, uh, you know, with still a game in Detroit, uh, to come. So that's, that's pretty difficult for them considering there's, you some teams that as again they can go on to win that division and still get there that's the problem that's kind of why they're still viable it's because no one's running away with that division so even though they probably would have a hard time you know winning a wild card spot nfc west is completely up for grabs yeah no totally it's just yeah the schedule like you mentioned i do want to know too like cmc and debo

both do not look right i mean you have juwan jennings basically as your ex-receiver at this point kittles i mean he's just playing through i think like three different injuries all season basically at this point so like the whole team is basically injured um but like again if they if you told me this sunday they're healthy and like they're good to go like I mean they're five and a half point dogs right now um at Buffalo I think that should probably be like two and a half to three um I don't know that's kind of like more more where I'd put it but I don't know if they're gonna be fully healthy like maybe ever so that's kind of the issue so I just like put an asterisk put them at like six but I think you put them at like 13 or 15 even like you know i really wouldn't blame anyone after that range um you mentioned the chargers i had them at seven oh um okay i had them ahead of the vikings and the packers

and the texans which is probably a bold choice but i wanted to take a stand on them because yeah because i i'm so excited about this offense i just really like i mean outside of Quinn Johnson who I think is gonna ask the worst player it's you know what's funny is I thought about tweeting out our like exchange maybe like three weeks ago of just like me like ripping on Quinn Johnson about because like every deep ball that threw to him 50 50 ball he never comes up with them like literally never comes up with it and then they drop like five passes on whatever monday or whatever it was uh i mean he stinks but like he does because i tried to like in knowing that you were hard against it i pushed back i tried to sell you on uh quentin johnson longest reception heading into that matchup against baltimore and i looked at someone like i mentioned the changes in the

secondary for baltimore and then i went and and watched the last like four games of Quinton Johnson targets and I didn't make the bet and I felt good about not making the bet. So yeah, he's, he's, he's not really good at football, but it's a coach. That's a talent maximizer. I think it's a quarterback under the coach that ends up being a talent maximizer. It's maybe just a lost talent that can't be maximized maybe they've already done that they've squeezed all the juice out of whatever the quittin johnston thing is but uh yeah i mean they're feisty we knew they were touched on the preseason don't know how they're going to get there they're going to be in the mix because they just are and here we are they're definitely

in the mix i think i just have questions on this defense being a hold up against other playoff contending teams other elite offenses and that's kind of come to roost the last couple weeks yeah it was like i mean it's like a game and a half now i also think the ravens are a different beast just with like i mean having derrick henry being able to run just like way bigger personnel and i think overwhelm the chargers a little bit we were kind of like heading into the game like wondering how they were going to stop the run with like because they play a lot of too high and just like weren't really loading the box a ton and uh they didn't stop their own so you know that's kind of the answer was they didn't uh because they just couldn't you know and so and then that's obviously a massive detriment because then when you're

playing lamar it opens up just a whole nother box of everything else that makes it virtually impossible to win uh in my mind or at least six slow down the offense so um it's it's it's a tough tough bugaboo there but i think that they i think they're gonna make playoffs i think they're gonna fight their their live to win against virtually every team so you know i think they're again like in my mind kind of like squarely in the mix of the like back into the top 10 yeah they are i mean the schedule coming up um some interesting games next two on the road at atlanta at kansas city uh tampa band denver again so the next four all like you know kansas city and then fringe playoff teams and then they finish soft at new england at las vegas um that should be an easier finish for them but uh you know this is interesting

atlanta game this week too. Maybe we can get to that when we touch on some of the games of the week. But that one matters, I think, for pretty impactful for both teams. So, yeah, I have them just on the outside. I was wondering where you had the Vikings, and the Vikings definitely are interesting. I think they should probably – they're 9-2. They should probably be in any top 10.

They've kind of faced a middle-of-the-pack schedule, kind of having a middle-of-the-pack schedule to go. Definitely some winnable football games. Three in a row at home coming up. Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago, all winnable football games. We could really easily be in a spot where the Vikings are 12-2. We have to go okay like what do we make of that like it's not as much like a couple years ago when they were

and that same record we're like oh it's just whatever 12 and 1 and once more game kind of garbage that they had this does feel like fairly solid football team um defensively they're feisty getting hockinson back offensively really good looks like aaron jones is healthy we saw his workload spike back up last week that's really encouraging the fact that you can kind of throw for 300 plus yards and justin jefferson's really not even a part of that is is definitely interesting obviously sam donald can you know fall back to earth very hard in an instant um so they're really hard to be like long on moving forward but nine and two with three easy games coming up at

home feels like they're in a spot where gonna be hard to keep them out of the top 10 and you know out of the playoff picture so uh they were seven for me the next three are really hard um so you had the niners and then Vikings Packers. I had Niners, Chargers, Vikings, Packers, Texans. Six to ten. What was your six to ten? Yeah, six to ten. Ravens, Vikings, Texans, which feels really gross.

Even having the Texans anywhere in the top ten felt gross, especially losing at home to the titans last week they just continue to be really weird offensively like it just you want it to be so much better part of it for me is like i still think the defense is solid if had injuries they have more injuries jalen petrie injury is going to be impactful for them playing without nico for a bit there i think really hurts i think he's just kind of one of those dudes that it just he's completely different the dynamic and of that offense when he's on the field is completely different didn't play itself out last week necessarily but like to lose that game is really bizarre um and nine nine ten couple of my pet teams that i just continue to be long on that I think are really interesting. Seattle at nine, Cincinnati at 10.

Really hard. Cincinnati is four and seven. But really easy schedule outside of the two Pittsburgh games. So they really got to take care of business this week at home. I think they have basically bookend games against the steelers they're at pittsburgh and then they are at dallas at tennessee home to cleveland and then they get denver and pittsburgh to finish so there's and again it is a one-sided thing here this defense is bad it might get worse and more injuries they lost dj turner heading into the buy uh they

basically benched cam taylor brit mid-game and then we're gonna have to bring him back and put him back in the lineup and start him uh because they've had so many injuries they already lost a couple weeks prior so it's just going to be a spot where they have to outscore teams i think they can kind of do it uh you know i i neither of us had pittsburgh which i think is really interesting it was eight and three um their schedule is brutal too and i don't know if that's part of what your handicap was on leaving pittsburgh out of it again losing in conditions at cleveland was interesting but like i don't know the rust off has not been very good it's like 30 of the success rate since he's been the starter for everyone else to tell you how good russ has been and how much better he is than justin fields like

i'm not watching that i have not seen that it's been okay but it's not like oh finally they have russ um and i think the defense is they could be disruptive but i don't think they're great um and we both left them out i think it's interesting why did you leave them out yeah i mean i think you you nailed it that's i they were right on the fringe of their team that i probably should have had in like if you just look to like what they are today versus the rest of the league like i think that they're probably 11 um for me um just because i think that they're a little bit more well-rounded than the bangles i mean i just worry that the bangles defense is like just so bad um like I mean

they're getting you know 30 plus points put on them like routinely uh and so I I just worry about that like it's just a high bar to win if you can't stop like get a stop ever you know what I mean um so that's my only way with them but yeah like the Steelers I think it's a little bit more well-rounded um obviously not as good offensively the commanders neither has had either which is a pretty popular team to have near the top 10 obviously coming off a big loss to dallas um i mean they're just falling down to earth now they played some good defenses as we talked about and i you know got roasted on twitter for saying this um i mean they're playing teams that can get pressure and it's basically they're resorting to like the old cliff kingsbury offense we saw even in week one against Tampa.

I think it was Tampa, right, who could also get pressure. And they were just throwing these kind of bullshit short stuff. They had no real offense. It just wasn't working until basically late fourth quarter with the bomb to McLaurin. Crazy. Yeah, I would say it was not an overall good game for this commander's team um and against bad defenses when he has time i mean to be able to air it out if he doesn't have time they don't really seem to have a plan in place he's just like scrambling

it's like uh you remember what baker was in like uh cleveland where he would just like roll out to the right aimlessly all the way like that was like basically his entire Cleveland tenure. That's kind of what's happened with Daniels. I saw like four or five times. He rolls out, tries to scramble, and then they have a spy, and he just runs out of bounds and throws it away. Yeah, and think about where they're at too, what they've done against literally the softest schedule in the league. The only issue is why I had them kind of on the fringe there too

is the remaining schedule fairly soft. You know, Philly and Atlanta, those are both at home though. Otherwise, definitely winnable football games. them kind of on the fringe there too is the remaining schedule fairly soft um you know philly and atlanta those are both at home though um otherwise definitely winnable football games for them left on the slate so that's that's challenging but um yeah the cincinnati thing is tough because like it's a top five offense there if they're healthy it's a top five offense and in this day and age that is enough sometimes if burrows playing out of his mind he's playing really good football jamar chase has been awesome this year uh when t higgins on the field i think there's just a uh just a dynamic offense and uh that's against a bunch of teams

i think they can outscore if that's what the ask is over the next couple of weeks uh i think they can do it so that's my holding out hope there. But it was tough to kind of round up the top 10. It was really close between not getting the Niners in there at the end too, but that's kind of a health thing too. Seattle, I think Seattle is really interesting. I think finally we're starting to see what I thought we were going to see early in the season is this team just kind of figuring out this defensive

system a little bit, starting to get healthy. They've had just cluster injuries on the offensive line. In the secondary, up front, they replaced the linebacker crew, which I think makes a ton of difference. Again, I know I will go to bat for linebackers all day, and most will tell you that they don't matter. I'm telling you they matter. Teams can run all over Seattle, and they can no longer do that um no one was better against the run last year

than ernest jones led all linebackers and tackles above expectation uh against the run and tyrese knight is rookie like dominating college utep uh led all of college football and solo tackles and just was a problem for three years there all of a sudden they are now a strong run unit james connor has been a beast all year we have six yards last week um mcafree didn't do much against them either with this new uh core so i think it really matters all of a sudden you start to get rishon jenkins back you get leonard william back. You get Leonard Williams back. You get Byron Murphy back. Boy,

you're my face. A ton of games played this year. So Seattle, I think is, is feisty. Now they're also allergic to running the football on their end, which is surprising. Maybe the offensive line getting together helps a little bit.

JSN is emerging. Yeah. They have an interesting one. They got to go on the road this week. It's a tough spot against the jets, even though the jets suck the travel, but then they kind of come next week again and face arizona i think that one's going to matter a ton in terms of what happens here for seattle's chances again that division is wide open they were fourth heading into last week and

now they're in the lead in the division so um yeah it's kind of wide open but i think seattle's a good football team and i want to continue to bang the drum and get them in the back end of my power rankings. Yeah, if you're fine with it, I think that was kind of my team that we were talking about the next section was going to be futures bets. Yeah. I thought that I think them to win the NFC West at 2-1 still might be a little bit short considering they're co-leading with the Cardinals. Well, I guess technically ahead right now if, again, it were to end. The schedule's a little bit short considering they're like co-leading with the Cardinals. Well, I guess technically ahead right now, if again, like you were to end,

the schedule is a little bit tough, obviously, but like, I mean, if, if Purdy and is not good to go, you know, like that's, I think we're basically crossing the Niners out. Same with the Rams. I'm like not super high on them long-term, even though they played pretty well for the most part. So we're just talking about them versus the Cardinals, the Seattle defense. Like we talked about it last week. If they're fully healthy, they've been playing way better.

We just weren't sure if it was just against bad opponents or like maybe a fluke. I think they proved last week against the Arizona offense that was like top five in basically every offensive metric coming into that game the last three weeks prior and just like completely shut them down for the most part, especially on the ground. So I think if the Seattle defense is legit and gino can keep playing as well as he has like the seattle team is

was definitely in the fringe here two to one to to win the division i don't know if i bet them to make the playoffs because i think the nfc west is gonna be a one uh playoff team like division here um based on i think the next closest team is um the commanders in thecard, but they're like two games ahead maybe or something like that. It's they're, they're, they're a game or two out at least from even for me approaching the wildcard spot. So I would rather bet the division if you're going to bet on the Seahawks or the, or the Niners. I mean,

if for some reason you think the Niners turn around seven to one is not that crazy either to be honest. So. Yeah. It's tough. Cause you have the North, it's going to have three teams, right? You're going to have Detroit, Green Bay, and Minnesota. Then you start to get into the spot like what happens with Tampa and Atlanta?

That's probably a one division, one team division as well. Same thing in the West. So it gets a little bit murky there. Do you have a second team? Is that the commanders outside of the Eagles in the East? Probably.

They got a little bit of a lead in terms of win-loss record, and that helps them. So, yeah, it could be just a heavy north, which we thought coming into the season, right? We maybe thought it was going to be Chicago and not Minnesota, but definitely thought there was a path to three playoff teams in that division. So that's interesting.

Kind of pick it up there that we're just beating on um the steelers the steelers are um plus 130 on caesars to finish under 10 and a half wins so we need to get to 11. they need three more wins they're eight and three we touched on this like all off season this end of the season schedule for the steelers is absolutely brutal um yes they have cleveland and so after cincinnati and cleveland so cincinnati i think you know how i feel about that game and how that's going to go out then they're on the road at philly on the road to baltimore and they host kansas city before playing again the bangles to finish week 18. you're going to tell me there are three wins in there you're telling me they're sweeping uh the bangles and winning at cleveland which that's just that's a

bridge too far for me and we're getting plus 130 on it so um steelers under 10 and a half wins plus 130 and i steelers not to meet the playoffs all that stuff i think that's probably dead under 10 and a half wins though i think it's still very very very much in play especially at the price yeah that's pretty strong i do worry that they're kind of like the type of team to beat the bangles because they can like run the ball um but not twice i mean again like you there's there's some stuff baked into this you know like there's like plenty of there's some wiggle room here i thought it would be like 10 and a half juiced under uh not the other way around so yeah 30 on, plus 130 on under 10 at half is a really good look. I like that.

Yeah. The other one is the Browns, who's part of that meeting too, that I like quite a bit. Browns currently 3-8. They are, what is the price? Even odds. Well, plus 100 on FanDuel to go under 4-1. So, basically, they would need to win two more games.

They have a murderer's row um i know it's fun i know jamis is fun and i think they're you know more lively offensively for sure defense is not what it was last year the schedule uh at denver at pittsburgh the next two weeks home to kansas city at cincinnati home to miami at bal. I mean, they're going to be comfortable dogs and all those that probably, they probably the shortest line is this week at Denver, maybe, you know, assuming that all the other teams stay healthy.

There are not two more wins on the schedule. So under four and a half wins plus 100 on FanDuel for the Browns or another future look that i like i like that one that's that's pretty interesting yeah james is fun love betting drops but like i mean part of the reason is because he like i mean he was like an absolute warrior in the snow just like wasn't even seeing guys but like throwing crazy stuff and then would also just like he didn't even see a defender one time like threw it directly at him and he just dropped it like i mean there were so many times times where you have no idea what he's doing,

and it just kind of works out sometimes. Or he throws four interceptions in a game and it doesn't work out, which is not good for win-loss. Super fun to watch, though. One other one that I want to bring up, Giants under three-and-a-half wins. They play the Cowboys, Saints, Ravens, Falcons, Colts, and Eagles. I mean, maybe one in there. I think they're three-and-a-half point dogs against the Cowboys, Saints, Ravens, Falcons, Colts, and Eagles. I mean, maybe one in there. I think, like, they're three-and-a-half-point dogs against the Cowboys this week.

Like, I think they match up, like, really poorly against them, to be honest. And then the Saints, I mean, maybe. Colts, maybe. Like, I don't even know. All these teams are better than the Giants at this point. So, I don't know. Two wins in that stretch seems pretty aggressive. So, I thought't know, two wins in that stretch seems pretty aggressive. So I thought under three and a half there makes sense.

But I will say I want them to win more because our Jags' worst record bet that we made multiple times throughout the year, we got in at 20-1 like midseason. We got in at 12-1 preseason. And they're tied right now. They play the Jaguars in December. That'll basically probably decide it unless the Giants can't win another game, which would not surprise me either, to be honest.

But I would love at least like a – I think it's like dead heat, right, that I could just split. I'm pretty sure if you tie. Yeah, I was curious what the push is. I thought it was. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, your Raiders are 2-9 there too, which is interesting.

So, yeah, interesting to see the jockeying down at the bottom of the board in terms of draft positioning. Not a great draft necessarily. It doesn't feel like a clean 1-0-1 prospect, but obviously you'd rather pick earlier than late just to have the equity of the pick. Pick earlier in the subsequent rounds. All those things matter too.

So it'll be interesting to see what happens there too. New England's schedule is brutal too. I don't know that they're winning many games remaining on their schedule too, considering that the rest of the teams that they're playing, Indy this week, Arizona, Buffalo, the Chargers and Buffalo again, those teams pretty much all need those games, which is maybe Buffalo in Week 18 doesn't, but they'll still find a way with their backups probably to go into New England

and to get a win. So, yeah, definitely. Who knows? Yeah, we'll see how that goes. All right, what do you like for Week 13? Anything that caught your eye on the board that you want to touch on, share with the folks? I kind of want to back the Eagles here at plus three.

I think it's kind of interesting. Look, I don't know, maybe against the Ravens. Maybe I'm getting ahead of my skis here, but I think, you know, per your power rankings,

they should be favored per mine. I think probably about three is right. You got, I just want to be ahead of the game here on the Eagles. I think it's gonna be a pretty interesting match between this Ravens run defense, but this Ravens run defense, they lost their like defensive tackle or was on IR. It was a couple of weeks ago and they haven't really been as good sense, like run defense wise. And I haven't fully parsed out the numbers yet, but just per all the props that we bet on and you know, everything there, like, I mean, there's

guys have had some success against them. So I think that's kind of worth noting here as well and it's not like the eagles can't throw they just haven't had to throw um and so like i think that that's another aspect here and then the eagles defense has been playing like awesome for the most part i think they had their toughest test with with uh you know in terms of passing games they faced in the rams or one of their toughest tests and they played largely very well so you know i think that of passing games they faced in the Rams or one of their toughest tests, and they played largely very well. So, you know, I think that this is like, again, this is a matchup here where I don't have too much expectations for this Ravens passing game, although their running game,

I think, could still have some success. We saw, you know, the Rams running game have a little bit of success too. So I think plus three for the Eagles is pretty interesting there. And we'll start with that. Any thoughts on that game? I mean, there's some great games this week. That's probably the best, right? What's our price on that on ProfitX?

Share that with the people. Yeah, let me pull this up here. So it looks like we're seeing, let's see here. It's plus or minus 110 on plus three. And then you can obviously like click into it and get like different prices on alts. If you want to, I don't know, buy a point or you could get some other, a different liquidity here. Um, but yeah, I mean, there's a couple hundred bucks there, or if you want to take Baltimore at minus three and get plus one or two. So, um, pretty

cool here on this, but Providex continues to have just like some of the best best odds um available in like 42 states i think right now so um pretty awesome there um it's pretty sick yeah you gotta check it out if you have not yet especially if you're betting sides and totals it's definitely there's just nothing like it uh peer-to-peer instead of you know betting against the house um no limits i'm just gonna make sure there's enough equity to get down. You're basically taking a small clip of net winnings instead of the 10 to 15, 20 cent juice that you're getting on a standard line on a sports book. So take advantage of ProfitX, especially if you are getting in the sides and totals market. They have props as well. Other sports, sports again, available in the 42 States.

It is, uh, definitely the way to go instead of messing around and paying all that juice, uh, set your own odds to like, Hey, you want this,

you want affiliate two and a half, throw it out there, uh, and let someone else pick up the other side, uh, which is sweet too. There's also like partial matches. So like someone doesn't have to grab the whole size of your,

your bet. You know, if you're, you know, a whale and you're throwing down, you know, four or five figures on a side, you just want someone to scoop up a little bit, you know, a little a hundred dollars on the other side. That's fine. Leave the rest for someone else. You can do that too. So definitely check out ProfitX. Use promo code Betsperts. When you sign up, they're going to give you $300 in ProfitX cash for you to use to get a little bit of a rollover with that too which is pretty sweet so questions let us know but again if you're been sides of totals man this is

this is the way to go 42 states 46 states something great i don't know i can't keep track of what all the states that i'm sure anyone listening is it lives in um true well except for maybe michigan i don't know people actually live in michigan the other states no i don't i don't think anyone actually lives in those states uh that they're not in so that's why they didn't uh that's why they didn't get their license there so we got there yet um but i'll just keep this up while we talk through some of our other bets too uh i mean may as well right so we can just like auto price check yeah i like it eileen eileen eagles obviously my concern with the eagles moving forward which i think is a little bit um i am underreported uh the pass rush has been awesome and they had a lot of

depth there now all of a sudden back-to-back weeks losing uh someone for the season brandon graham was awesome the other night again honestly this is all jaylen carter jaylen carter has been so good. None of the stats will tell you that if you're looking at just sacks or anything. Jalen Carter has been awesome. He's playing almost every down. He is absolutely disruptive. But he's made it really easy for other guys to go clean up.

And Brandon Graham lost for the season with a strained tricep the other night. They lost Bryce Huff a couple weeks ago. So all of a sudden, they're very, very thin at edge. I think they start to use their linebackers a little bit more. I think they'll find a way to get it done, but I think that that's something to watch moving forward with them. But I definitely want to be long on Philly. I still think that they're the side there too.

I would love a two and a half, which again, you can get on ProfitX. You probably just have to pay a little bit more. Again, you're going to pay less than you would uh the normal traditional book as well so uh philly if that's available at two and a half uh that would be that'd be price that'd be nice let me see what we can get yeah philly let's go the other way what am i getting on a two and a half on philly oh no we're philly plus three so three and a half uh minus 124 is what i mean so it's not it's not bad i think that that that's worthwhile that price you're muted if you want to tell me that i'm right yeah i was gonna say i like to price those

things out i think unabated as like a calculator about like how much half points worth in certain scenarios i don't know the math left on my head uh i tend to probably agree you know again minus 124 getting the hook seems nice but i i don't know if i'm mad but yeah yeah um what are your seahawks minus two right now i know you said tough spot but like the jets defense has been legit kind of bad since sal left sauce garden he's more interested in playing golf. Like, should I invite him to the simulator with me and Steve? I mean, like, literally, this is like, what's he doing out there? Like, I don't even know what's going on.

I'll take Sauce to the sim. We'll team up against you two. You know, heat check. Yeah, I know you guys are feeling yourselves. Are you still in the lead? Are you still winning the sim league so far? Last week, we shot a four under combined. And with our handicap, it was a 10 under we won the

league that week because we're rolling right i i hit maybe four shots past the woman's tees off of uh the drive but i hit four within like two feet of the pin from 100 yards out i was just absolutely like hitting darts when it mattered most but i couldn't do anything else which is the best part about this game and i was like i was like the worst golfer of all time if I golfed by myself, but collectively, we shot great. It's a humbling game. And you kept score, right? Like every shot you hit counts,

not the ones you were practicing. We did. There was no practice. They actually don't let you do mulligans during the tournament. There's no mulligans. If you drop the ball, you get two strokes or whatever. Like there's no, just because it's a scramble, like you have to actually like, you know, it's a, it's a tournament.

And then you can't keep score. You got to keep scoring. You're playing golf. They all count. It's crazy out here. People. Yeah. That's hilarious.

Yeah. Seattle. Definitely. Minus two plus one Oh one here. Just obviously a lovely, lovely price. Yeah. I mean, I just think they're the better football team. The Jets, especially if we have questions

with Brees Hall's availability or him being 100%, that's kind of popped up. I don't think he practiced on Wednesday. I think that matters quite a bit. So yeah, Brees Hall I think matters for them because he's been so impactful in the passing game for them. Coming off of the bye, heading east, there's some situational stuff that I think uh you know i think people tend

to look into so that's not working on seattle side you know kind of a cookie game in important division games again coming off of the arizona game with an arizona game to come um but again i think highly of the coach i think they are prepared for this game and i think under is probably a good lean too um i think you can run on the foot, run the football in the jets and they see, I just doesn't seem to want to do that very much. And I just don't have any real faith in what's going on with the jets offense.

And you already touched on why I think Seattle's defense is kind of cooking, but yeah, Seattle, anything less than three. So I love this year. Profit X getting plus one Oh one for minus two, I think is a great look.

Yeah, it's pretty fun. I like that. I think you, you you mentioned all the all the key points there on seattle um stay on the screen here because this one's interesting i don't know if you wanted to talk about this yes chargers falcons you're bullish on the chargers uh very high in your power rankings this is another situational nightmare where if this is just by itself, um, charges minus one. Great. I want you to tell me how much this means to you. Falcons coming off a buy at home,

short rest for the chargers on Monday night, traveling East. So massive advantage rest wise for the Falcons who the last time we saw, I got absolutely curb stomped by the Broncos 38 to six or something like that with like just ridiculous effort by the Falcons heading in. Does that matter? Does this is horrible magic just kind of sprinkled on top of all this,

just erase any edge that the Falcons could possibly have here. Yeah. I kind of think that this game is similar to the Broncos. I kind of think the charges of Broncos are pretty similar. The charges just have like a way better quarterback and yeah, I kind of think that this game is similar to the Broncos. I kind of think the Chargers and Broncos are pretty similar. The Chargers just have like a way better quarterback. And yeah, I mean, kind of better team in general. But like they're pretty similar in the fact that they like try and play good defense. And, you know, like they're not necessarily don't have a ton of good players, but they just find a way to make it work.

And that seems to be the case here. So I don't know. I kind of think, too, there's this Falcons defense, 25th and drop back EPA struggled to both success rate and EPA against the run. Like they're just not that good defensively. And so if the Chargers defense can show anything I think that they win this game pretty handily. If they don't and the Falcons kind of make it like kind of like the bucks game, we saw them just like throw like 60 times. You know, if that pans out, like kind of like what we saw in the second half of Cincy, or you mentioned that you think that they're a little bit overrated,

which I think is fair based on those. I'm just not sure that Atlanta's on the same level as those other offenses. So they've shown flashes of maybe being really good, but they've also shown flashes of being really bad. And so I worry that might be the case here. So yeah, Chargers minus one is pretty interesting especially minus 107 yeah i like it too uh you know but i'm i looked at it i was like what the heck and then i was looking back and i'm like oh yeah this is a this is a travel edge nightmare situation for the chargers but i do think they're the better football team

um maybe you know again boiling it down to coach quarterback and it's always going to bode pretty well for the Chargers in most spots. So again, are the Falcons the team that are just going to be like, hey, we're going to run a ton. We're just going to get Bijan on the ball 20 times and see what happens. They just continue to be unwilling to do that. So not even to piggyback off of what you saw the Ravens do successfully the other night.

I just don't think the Falcons want to do that. And then you're going to have a clean pocket for Herbert here. Falcons continue to have just for like a decade straight, basically no pass rush to speak of whatsoever. And they have none now. And I think that's going to be a problem for them as we get into, you know, December and the playoffs for them actually, you know know being a real competitive football team because secondary is

not good enough to hold up and if you can't get home you're playing good football teams good quarterbacks you're gonna get cooked you just you got to be at their feet you got to be in their face often and when you're not uh just someone's gonna catch you and uh it was bo nicks last time that we saw the falcons play. And I think Herbert's better than Bo Nix. So even if he has to throw 20 times to Quentin Johnson. What I noticed too, is like in the Ravens game, like they were, when they do like these like play actions out of shotgun, kind of like they think that they're going to hand it off. And then, but it requires a little bit more time and the Ravens were kind of getting home a little bit. If they're not getting home on

those, I mean, Herbert is just like absolute. He was firing missiles when he's not under pressure. He's just like throwing absolute darts. And so it's exciting to watch. But if they can't get pressure, I mean, it's like really bad, like danger zone for this Falcons team. Yeah. Could be some ceiling outcomes with the Chargers passing game prop wise this week.

If that kind of plays out like we're thinking. So other one i obviously like is i'm gonna take cincinnati at home against this uh steelers team right now minus three plus 105 um i don't hate that if you kind of buy down to cincinnati minus two and a half and minus 116. I like that quite a bit. Again, not off drastically off of where you're pricing wise. We are on a normal sports book. I'm getting a half point that I think matters a ton.

I think you make great points. Steelers are kind of a team that can give the Bengals trouble. But I just, I kind of want to continue to build in the buy into this offense. Offensive line is playing pretty well. They're protecting Burrow for the most part. And when he has time and he can cook, he's going to be a real problem. And,

you know, I think they, cause they play in the division a lot. I think they know how to handle TJ Watt, at least a little bit. They're going to chip him. They're going to double team him. And with Highsmith still not a hundred percent,

maybe not even back. You're going to be able to find some holes in the secondary and pick them apart and i think burrow and company are gonna be able to do that so minus 116 two and a half is a play for me on profitex nice i like that there was a quote that came out during the show um actually that i just got a little little apple watch notification for about uh about so so Joe Burrow, apparently it's like some, not like a, I mean,

wrist injury a little bit. It's Kelsey Conway tweeted this out. It said he has yet to play in a cold weather game yet. And it isn't sure how his wrist will feel when asked. He threw a, threw today at practice. He wasn't necessarily pleased with how it went. I don't really think that matters too much.

I mean, he'll, he's always been a warrior and just like, kind of like fought through any pain. I do think that it could matter in the prop market in terms of volume, their password or expectations been like super high generally. Maybe they run a little bit more sealers. We know just try and like cook clock and then throw a couple of deep ones.

So I don't know, maybe this game goes under maybe there's some unders there coming for me. 48 and a half right now is the total. And obviously if, again, if Cincy runs it more and isn't just throwing it around the yard, then this game's going to go way under, in my opinion. But I still think Cincy can win and cover because they are the better team.

I just worry that Pittsburgh is going to do Pittsburgh. It's like one of those things. It's tough. They do it all the time. They find unique ways. And you're like wow i don't even know how we're here um i thought this was gonna be the year that the tomlin thing was gonna die but nope um yeah uh anything else to jump out to you i gotta get you one more yeah i have one more interesting one that's like a total um it's commanders um titans i thought it was pretty interesting because

i mean will levis is playing really well um and i don't know why this isn't like we're loading here okay there you go um yeah 44 and a half 45 and a half here uh plus money i was seeing 44 and a half in other spots as well i mean will levis has played awesome and i don't think the titans defense that's a little bit beat up right now necessarily gives enough problems the commanders to cause the issues that we talked about before um so again if you're letting if you're letting jay daniels play like he was in the early in the season i mean this total is like you know this game's gonna go into the 60s probably or you know like high 50s Because again, Will Levis is like the last three games,

like 7.99 yards per attempt, 11 yards per attempt last week against like pretty good defenses. Like, you know, not, you know, nothing too soft there. And I think commanders, you know, again, an even easier landing spot. Maybe he's figuring it out a year plus into, you know, official starts. Always possible. You never know what happens from time to time. We see good pockets of play from different players.

So over 44 and a half, I thought was interesting. 45 and a half, I don't mind either, plus money. He took eight sacks in the first half against the Texans, which is, we're on pace. They put up the most sacks in the game record. It was 12, multiple teams have tied it. He managed to not take a sack the entire second half. Wow. Which is pretty

impressive. Yeah, I mean, maybe he's coming into it a little bit. I was wrong on Levis, so that'd be okay. He's been pretty terrible, but Tony Pollard's been good. I feel like that's a spot where the backfield mix is not really working for them. When they've let Pollard just have a run of it, he's been really good. They ran early, ran well.

And I think that helped establish, you know, some different play action stuff that they could do with Ridley late. Nick Westbrook, a Keeney every game has like a 30, 40 yard touchdown reception. Like one of his two catches, the game goes for 40 and a score,

which is a pretty wild trend but uh yeah i think that's it i think that's a good call out there for sure and i think you're okay uh on in terms of key numbers being on the right side here at 45 and a half getting the plus money you know 44 is kind of a key number 47 so when you're kind of stuck in the middle i'd rather get rewarded for you know get a little extra plus there for some uh you can do probably don't matter i mean you can do 43 and a half at minus 122 if you want to get down even more i mean that's not even yeah that's not bad um yeah 21 24 24 20 something like that you know that gets you there and that's more than reasonable yeah no it's a good call. I also think the Colts go into New England to win.

Colts minus 2.5, minus 1.06. I don't know. I just think that New England offensive line is bad. It was really bad the other day against a Miami team that defensively doesn't scare me, but they just never took off. And that's a lot of pressure on my boy Drake May. And I still think this Colts defense can be okay. They're just way better when DeForest Buckner's in the lineup and he's been awesome.

Every game he's played this year, he's been awesome. We're starting to see Layatu Latu be that dude as well. He's played really well the last couple of weeks. Pressures, sacks, getting home a little bit. I think Anthony Richardson against a team that likes to run a lot of man is probably a pretty good spot for Anthony Richardson, even though Josh Downs is out. That hurts a little bit, but I think they're going to be able to get home on some big plays. I think Richardson's going to be able to run here a little bit too, so Colts at less than three on the road in New England.

In a game that they need, it kind of keeps them alive in the playoffs and a game that really New England doesn't. And hopefully they remember that they don't the Colts take care of business here at two and a half. Yep. No, don't, don't mind that. I, I kind of want to back the Patriots in some ways, but I understand, you know, Drake may is just a full rollercoaster. So maybe better, better off in the prop market there. Also, it's it's crazy i mean this is only minus one to six we've been talking about all these odds with like the rebate thing program that they have and your first like i think it's up like 300 bucks and like that you're basically just getting like vig free on this because it's like i think three percent back up to 300 bucks like after all your plays this is like i mean i don't know if you if

you actually bet on any like sides and totals like you know i've been using it more it's awesome again i don't play like a ton of sides and totals each week but uh i pick my spots you know a couple each week usually and um those do fine and obviously this would make it this has made it more fine because i'm getting better odds and prices on all of it so significantly better odds yeah across the board money lines lines, like, you know, you're like a money line parlay. It's just better odds. Like whatever you're doing out there in the space, it's, it's just better to do here. Cause you're all those things add up over time. It just, it really matters. You know, there are accounts that tell you that it doesn't matter. It matters.

These things over time, definitely, definitely add up. You want to get the best price. So yeah, that's kind of all I have. Any best bets for Thanksgiving? What do you like? Well, the Tua and the cold argument. Yeah, let's do the Tua cold thing. Yep, before you go. I mean, I just thought it was ridiculous.

Like I had seen like 20 tweets about it. Paulson sent me a bunch of tweets and I was looking at them. I'm like, oh, that seems bad. Like maybe Tua sucks in the cold. And I was like, I'm busy. I'm not going to look into it. So I looked into it this morning.

Two is like people are citing like, oh, two under 50 degrees is like, oh, one in seven. I'm like, 50 degrees is not like cold. Like that's like, that's like a normal fall day, you know, like 40 degrees. Oh yeah. That'd be, it's like 33 right here right now. And I'm like, you know, in a sweatshirt and sweatpants, maybe I'll throw on a jacket if I go outside, but like, I don't know, whatever. It's fine. Um, 32 degrees is like the general mark of like something that's cold or not cold. I don't even think that high twenties is really that bad. It's not,

not comfortable, but you're not like, I don't know, visibly noticed there. He's only played in two games under 32 degrees in his career. It was the 29 degree game in Buffalo in 2022, where they literally lost 29 to 32 on a last second field goal. He was pretty efficient. I think average over seven yards per attempt at 230 passing yards, two touchdowns, zero picks. That I would say is the most comparable game. The other game was the 2023 playoffs against Kansas city, negative 27 degrees with Winchell. That is, I mean, disastrously cold. That is like wildly freezing. Like it was one of the coldest games in NFL history. So, and he still threw for 200 yards, 200 yards. I mean,

he wasn't like super efficient, but like he was better than I thought. I think I'm pretty sure I had an under in that game on him on like, like two 10 or two 15. Um, I mean, I don't know, to me, it just like felt like he also has big hands he's not the jared goff baby hand like t you know a little t-rex guy he's he's got bigger hands um like 80th percentile so for me i just i just felt like very i don't know it was like a media creation like oh under 50 degrees he hasn't won i'm like well it's just like to me it doesn't make sense and including brian flores games in like this sample like get the fuck out of here like no and no that stuff's so relevant to like yeah like to his play now so um i don't know i just the more i look into it those are the things that i

like to uncover because i think there's actually edges on these because like people just get so wrapped up in like these little narratives that like are not true statistically you know what i mean like and then there's an edge. So played it over on two of completions. It could still lose. It could lose for a variety of other reasons, but not because of the weather in my opinion. I think it's fair.

The sample is small. A 50 is obviously a massively arbitrary number that doesn't actually tell the story that people are trying to do with it. The sample, no matter matter what is super small it's super small even if you use 50 right like that's not exactly what you're trying to do and then you also have to throw out the playoff game because like that's also not what we have going on this weekend either there was literally historically colds like why is anyone in the stadium should they actually play this game kind of weather you know what i mean like it was painful

to watch like these guys were like an elite secondary that day or two like literally like correct well jerry sneed like they were like i mean i think i bet the under even before the weather like it was just like this is a super hard matchup like this is wildly difficult and that's it to me because that's the piece that all the trends miss is none of them contextualize the actual matchup which i think we both agree always matters and any large sample trend that's the piece that all the trends miss is none of them contextualize the actual matchup, which we think we both agree always matters. And any large sample trend that's sizable to make a difference in terms of statistical relevancy doesn't allow you to capture anything matchup based. So my issue with the,

with the over is just that the Packers can, they love to run the football. They can just run the football and he's inefficient, but that's not weather related, that's not like there's nothing to do with you know what's going on and the other issue weather-wise is the kids from Hawaii went to school in the south in Alabama and now plays and lives in Miami so it's going to be cold for him is it going to be like impactful that he can't go out and throw a football against kind of a mediocre secondary without jair alexander nope um so i think your handicap's correct it's probably a good bet um so yeah i like i like that and again you're you probably catch heat for it as the tweet goes on and it pops in other people's timelines throughout the day

uh but yeah the poking a hole in the 50 under 50 is just uh was a layup and you you you dunked it home so good job yes it's hilarious it's fun um no i think that the the point of where he's from is a great point um i thought his reaction to is great like people are asking him about it like they're like oh like are you excited like he's like i'm hyped like he's like i want to prove this Like, they're like, Oh, like, are you excited? Like, he's like, I'm hyped. Like he's like, I want to prove this wrong. And they're getting the ball out of his hand so fast. Like in my mind, like it matters if he's trying to like grip it and rip it, like, you know, 50 yards, which he can barely do as is, you know, like he, that's not who Tua is. He's just going to get the ball out of his hands quickly, like as quick as possible. I mean,

he could probably wear like mitts mittens, you know, and be totally fine out there because he's throwing the ball like five yards every single time. and so like i think all those are fine i think your point about uh them running the ball is way more valid of like there just might not be enough plays um but again they've been throwing it so quickly and so much that i think it's he'll be fine do you like the dolphins in the game uh i want to just because like of my tweet and I'm getting, you know, flack for it, but I don't think there's actually many more reasons beyond that. Uh, so like, yeah, I'm just going to stick with my, my prop on the, on the completions over. But, uh, I think the over could be interesting.

Miami's defense, I don't think is very good. Jalen Ramsey's out. Um, so I lean over probably, I don't know. Do you have a take on the game? I like the Packers to win. Um, I don't have, I like three, three and a half. I, you know, don't have a take on the game? I like the Packers to win. I don't have, I like three, three and a half.

I, you know, don't have a ton of, of interest per se, but yeah, I don't, I don't really believe much in the dolphins defense. There's going to get a lot of pressure.

It's chop Robinson's balling out, but the Packers have been awesome at preventing pressure. And then when love gets pressured, he doesn't take sacks. They run the football really well. So I kind of like the Packers in the game. But, yeah, it's not a bet I'm dying to make. No.

Yeah, that's fun. The rest of the Thanksgiving games are fine. Just real quick, I think the Bears, I'm excited to see how Caleb Williams continues to develop. I thought he played extremely well against the Vikings for the most part. Terrible sack in overtime. Horrible delay of game right after. But, I mean, his long completion to Keenan Allen,

he ripped through two guys in zone. He had multiple other, like the throw to DeAndre Swift on the run was just like a drop in the bucket. It was incredible. So he makes some great throws. He's getting better. They need an assistant for him to play consistently within. Thomas Brown, I think, is doing a pretty good job with that so far getting the ball out quick um

they have don't didn't even have a running game last week and they still played pretty well so i'm excited long term and i think that this is going to be another good test i mean detroit stevens has played pretty well lately so um i'm interested to see how that goes yeah i don't have any interest in getting in front of the uh aloha blue train right now with all they have going on uh i think detroit's gonna be able to run the football and run it very well regardless of if front of the Aloha blue train right now with all they have going on. I think Detroit's gonna be able to run the football and run it very well, regardless of if it's just Gibbs, hopefully just Gibbs for us because we are on the Gibbs rushing over.

I think Montgomery is very much involved there too. It's going to be tough. I just want to see the Bears play well. I would like to see a nice competitive-h early game on the slate and set us up for a nice thanksgiving but uh yeah no interest in embedding the sides there i don't know what to make of the giants cowboys game the variance is so massive because we still don't know who the quarterback of the giants is do we believe the kuba rush um what we saw is that just kind of commanders related so really no appetite for that one and we just touched on dolphins packers so and then division game with 13 points spread with the team and just refused to kind of blow people out like do i want to lay you'd take 13 with in o'connell on the road

not really but i don't think you should lay the chiefs at 13 in any way shape or form right now either um so kind of a stay away in terms of sides for me yeah mess around i was trying to get below 10 and they don't even know one's even offering it but i think you could probably request something uh yeah you know and see if that works but um i don't know just i don't even know if that even makes sense either but um you never know what you get on profit x so no no all right good stuff that fun. A little different style today. We appreciate you guys hanging out with us.

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