Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 13 NFL BETTING GUIDE: Best BETS, Odds & Predictions | Arizona Cardinals & More!

Episode Date: November 29, 2023

Get ready for Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season with our comprehensive betting guide. This in-depth guide is a must-watch for football enthusiasts and bettors alike, offering expert analysis and predictions for upcoming games, including a focus on the Arizona Cardinals and Kyler Murray. Dive into detailed discussions of current odds, top betting tips, and insightful predictions that give you the edge in understanding Week 13's NFL dynamics. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just a fan looking for insights into your favorite teams and players, this video is packed with valuable information to enhance your 2023 NFL betting experience. Don't miss out on our valuable betting strategies and NFL picks. Subscribe and stay tuned for the best NFL betting advice and predictions!Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan joined here as always by my friends to talk sides and totals and the best matchups here for the week 13 NFL Slate. Joining me here as always, Connor Allen. Connor, what's going on, buddy? Not much. Coming off a pretty solid week for the most part. Props were a little bit up and down, but you know, can't complain too much there. Just excited to have our friend Sharp Clark over in a Cubs hat. Yeah, you want to take credit for this hat hat i'll take credit for next week's version of the hat because we put

them in a hat uh we put them in a baseball cap two weeks in a row it was a good punishment uh bet on the jets i love betting on bad teams um and then somehow the eagles cleared their over despite having seven points in the third quarter um they cleared it by a comfortable margin cleared it no i yeah i wouldn't say i wasn't worried yeah connor and i were texting on the side a little bit but uh you know when it did go there uh with i think like 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter it was like hey that's the whole premise of the bet anyway and uh yeah it was a very very interesting game and i think one of the in terms of like some of the marquee games that we've had this season i think that one delivered in terms of watchability and uh all that so the eagles continue to uh be just in the middle of uh these

very very tough ones and we'll get to them uh here later in the show three of us here every wednesday 4 p.m eastern on the four for four bets youtube channel i should be able to find the podcast in your podcast feed Wednesday evening. Subscribe to both. So you don't miss a show. It's free content. Supporting it by subscribing goes a long way in helping support us and continuing to bring the best content in tools in the industry to you at four

for four. So take a time, click the subscribe, like button, thumbs up comments. All those things go a long way. Jump in the chat. If you're hanging out on YouTube, let us know what your favorite week 13 look is we really appreciate

it again two shows every week on friday connor myself and john high slot from odds jam are here uh to talk about props again friday afternoons 3 p.m eastern uh here on the same channel so subscribe great time to talk about the betting subscription as well. We've been talking about it all year. So we're going to get all the official plays from the three of us. Anything you would want to do in terms of like football speculation. If you're still rolling in your season long league, you want to play DFS with us.

Uh, we have NBA articles, tools, and picks as well, led by Kevin O'Brien. Who's doing fantastic. Uh, the subscriber only discord really is the crown jewel of the subscription.

Vivid, underdog, prize picks. We have channels and plays in there as well. You can get all that and more. Right now, it's just $59 for the price, which is our monthly subscription price. But that takes you through the end of the NFL season and a little bit more. So basically, the subscription runs through the end of February. It's basically like buy one month, get two for free sort of deal right now. Check it out, 444.com slash plans.

Sign up for the betting sub, massive discounts, and I think you will have a good time rolling with us there. All right, last big buy week of the season here in week 13. We got six teams on a buy. We just have two next week. I think Washington and Arizona, if I'm not mistaken. And then we're done. We're in the home stretch here.

So let's get started. First game here. We have Arizona on the road in Pittsburgh. So open Pittsburgh minus four on Sunday night. Quickly bet up to six. There was a little bit of buyback at six. Clark jumped in as well. Now we're like down to Pittsburgh five and a half across the board.

Totals up to 41 and a half after opening at 40 as well. Clark, I'll let you get kicked off here. Floor is yours. Talk to us about the Cardinals and Steelers. Yeah, I think the spread is right. I think both these offenses, you have to treat them as recent games matter a lot more than early season games. The Cardinals, for obvious reasons, Kyler Murray hasn't played a few games.

The Steelers, you know, they're a different offense without Deontay Johnson. And they also missed some games with Pat Frymuth. And they also just faced some really tough defenses. And I think they really emerged as a competent offense. And now they fired Matt Canada, which I think is a plus. And so I think they should be treated as an offense that is expected to outperform their season long metrics, but so are the Cardinals. And I think that's why we've seen a little bit of money on the over here. I think there's even room for this to go higher. I think it's at 41 right now. But the weather is a big question mark, right? I think that's going to be a theme of some of these games on the East Coast this week. If it's wet and rainy and windy, it's not over. I want to get involved in. I

haven't made a play on it, but I think if I had to pick a side or total, that's where I'd lean in this game. The Steelers defense, I think is exploitable. And I don't think that that's been fully realized because they lost their two starting linebackers two weeks ago. And in their last four games, they've faced Will Levis, Jordan Love,

DTR and Browning as opposing quarterbacks. So I think that they have been a little bit fortunate to hide their defensive failures. They've been without making Fitzpatrick too, who might return in this game. So obviously that matters, but especially if Fitzpatrick is out, I think this is a sealer secondary that can be exploited by any quarterback

that can throw down field successfully. Just like we saw Jordan love to. So I think there's, there's as long as the weather is not terrible, I think there's, there's probably gonna be more points than, than the total suggests right here. But on the side, you know, I grabbed the six. I thought it was a good number, but after digging into the matchup further, I got closer

to the, to the five and a half and then the spread came down to five and a half. And so there's kind of erased any value I saw on the slide. Yeah. Minka might be back. Keanu Neal, who's also been an important part of their defense he went on the ir recently as well so it is like they're pretty decimated in the middle of the field here uh connor i'm sure you know people have seen the status you think is interesting it's steelers topped 400 total yards of offense for the first time in 58 regular season games

that covers more than the entire matt canada era we're back into like Big Ben, Antonio Brown for that one. They did it in a playoff game more recently, also not in the Matt Canada era. So none in the Matt Canada era. And they just go ahead and take the top off in the first game. Part of that is also the, you know, the Bengals defense has been atrocious here, but maybe some lights on here in terms of what to expect with Pittsburgh moving forward. What are your thoughts on this one? Yeah, there are a couple of moving pieces, as you mentioned,

with the defense for the Steelers here. And we've talked about it, I mean, pretty much week after week. Like, I want to fade the Steelers. I really do. But then they keep playing these teams where Kyler so far in his return has completed 34% of his passes 10 yards or further downfield. I mean, just like that can't happen. Like, if you're going to be able to really fully realize the potential of your offense,

it just needs to be better. And so like, that's kind of my concern with it is that is Arizona going to be able to exploit that? And we saw Pittsburgh come out and be aggressive and really, you know, kind of push the ball further downfield and, you know, have more yards, be more successful, I think offensively. And you get an Arizona defense that I think is fine, but it's still been exploitable as well. And so, and then on top of that, you add in the fact that Kenny Pickett still dealing with rib injury, dealing with a sore ankle, like Tomlin was kind of like, Hey, I don't know, like he should be fine, which is just doesn't encourage me a lot. So it's really kind of like, I think the spread is right. I think it's

six hourly in Arizona. I think if you can get, if we can get a little bit lower, maybe Pittsburgh, but a lot of these like Minka's status is, can he pick it fully healthy, which may never know. I'm sure he'll go, but like, is he really like how mobile is he going to be? So there's all these different factors here in play that I'm not sure that I

can fully quantify or realize until the game started. I think we won't really know a lot of that stuff. Yeah. Maybe some flop lag on like Jalen ward and stuff here in this match, because I mean, look what Kyron Williams did coming off of, you know, So yeah, maybe some flop lag on like Jalen Ward and stuff here in this match because I mean, look what Kyron Williams did coming off of, you know, four weeks off and just absolutely toasted this, this Cardinals defense, which is also kind of beat up too. So yeah, the Kyler stuff, he's been up and down, which I think is to be expected.

The average of the target, kind of like what you're speaking to in three starts is nine and a half yards, which is up from 7.2 in the Kingsbury horizontal raid offense you like seeing that but as you said like it's it's led to the lowest adjusted completion completion percentage in the league in the three weeks that he's been active so that's not really a great thing either uh you know running a little bit too but yeah it's uh it's interesting to see kind of how this team plays moving forward and you know as a Patriots fan I want to see kind of how this team plays moving forward. And as a Patriots fan, I want to see the Cardinals get another win at some point here. The Steelers though, like you said,

they run into the Patriots next week too. So like we're waiting to fade the Steelers. We just can't find a spot to actually find a team that we're ready to jump on and be like, Oh, this is a spot where this team is completely overrated. And really I don't think the market's necessarily overrating them based off of the win loss record yet. So I get the the six i get kind of the early action from clark but kind of where it is now it is kind of stateway yeah i think the cardinals are might be a little

bit underrated because so when i do my schedule strength of difficulty i like it's point in time right so like when they played the giants they had an had an offensive line and Daniel Jones, it was like the Giants at their best, who we thought were a capable team based on last year, right? If you use the Giants season long metrics to judge the strength of difficulty of that game, you're going to come up with a different number. But judging point in time, I have the Cardinals as the hardest schedule in the league to date. They've placed Washington, the Giants, Cowboys, 49ers, Bengals when they had a healthy Joe Burrow, Rams, Seah Cowboys, 49ers, Bengals when they had a healthy Joe Burrow, Rams, Seahawks, Ravens, Browns when they had a healthy Watson, Falcons, Texans, and Rams again. That is a tough schedule. So anytime you're using those metrics, especially

on defense, I think there's room for them to be better than people think they are. Granted, they do have a couple injuries, Kaiser White's on the ir uh but i think that there's room for the cardinals to be competitive here and that's why i ultimately laid the six or it's gonna be like you need to write the posted note now like fade the steelers in the first round of the playoffs no matter what like that's got to be like it just it's they're going to be like 10-point dogs i mean i'm looking at the afc standings right here right now the pennsylvania is the five seed which means they're getting get Miami or Jacksonville or Kansas City. I mean, they're going to get rinsed by any of those teams. I just don't know.

We don't know who they're going to get. So I just need to make a mental note. My initial lean needs to be to fade the Steelers, even if they play well the rest of the season. If we get a Steelers playoff game and the Bills are at home, that's just so hard to accept that's you know let's go cardinals this week let's just i know yeah please i could i can deal with it for a couple of different reasons so all right next we have the lions they're on the road here in new orleans lions two and a half

point favorites here in the look-ahead window on Friday after their loss to the Packers on Thanksgiving, and then after the Saints lost on Sunday to the Falcons. It's reopened Detroit, minus three-and-a-half. It's been bet out to four. Vandalism, four-and-a-half. Total is up in most spots as well at 46. We have a handful of crucial injuries here as well.

Saints are beat up. They lost Michael Thomas and Marshawn Lattimore a few weeks ago. And then several other guys got hurt against the Falcons. Cam Jordan with an ankle. Crystal Lave still stuck in concussion protocol. That's not good news. Rashid Jahid with a quad injury. He got hurt in the game.

Tried to come back in. Rudy aggravated and left. Wide receiver room getting very, very thin, Connor. It might be A.T. Perry time for real this time. What are your thoughts on this matchup here with the Lions and Saints? I mean, fuck him. How egregious is that?

That their entire starting receiving core gets injured and this bum who plays every snap can't get 20 yards. Five receivers got 20 yards. This is car, man. Car's not good. It's not going very well. The car rewatches are hard to stomach sometimes. Yeah, and I don't expect to get any better here.

I really like Detroit here in this spot because, I mean, we talked about it earlier in the season. Their defensive metrics were flawed because they're like top 10 and everything. That has now reversed in a big way, but it's also been against aggressive offenses. How are they going to push the ball downfield against Detroit? With who? with who, like AT Perry, you're going to tell me he's going to, you know, push that. I just don't think that that's going to happen here. Detroit's run defense

is still good. So that's what they're going for. Like, I think it's going to be a lot of underneath stuff, which Detroit has played well against like bad passing offenses or teams that haven't been able to be aggressive. And so I really liked that from that angle defensively. And I think that's the only angle that like people are leaning on with this four point spread, because I really like that from that angle defensively. And I think that's the only angle that like people are leaning on with this four point spread, because I really think that their offense, like Detroit's offense is going to have plenty of success against New Orleans too,

where Almond Ross St. Brown in the slot is a fantastic matchup here. You know, considering coverage, considering where they allow players to excel. And then Marshawn Lattimore is questionable or like, I think he's on IR, right?

He's out. So like, I think Jameson Williams could play a bigger factor too on the outside like there's so many ways i think that this detroit lions team offensively can kind of rebound or play a little bit better and on the other side like i don't expect new orleans have a ton of offices offensive success so even though detroit's on the road i like the minus four here a good bit. Yeah, the pass pass defense lines has been problematic and has been leaking a little bit more here. Clark, what are your thoughts on this one? So I agree that the Saints are going to struggle on offense because I mean, one of my golden rules, there's never 100% rule embedding.

But one of my close to 100% rules is never bet on a team with a cluster injury at wide receiver because you know, you take out one player, you take out two players and now you've got a third string or fourth string in this case, wide receiver matching up against the coverage that typically goes to the number one guy. And it's just a complete mismatch. So not betting on the saints here. I think the saints offense will struggle to capitalize against the lions weakness, just like you pointed out, but I disagree on the other side of the ball. I actually think that the saints defense is not a good matchup for the Lions. And partly, as I was digging into their numbers to prep this game, I noticed something really interesting, which is that if you look at yards per carry, the Saints allow the fifth highest yards per carry in

the NFL. But if you look at rush EPA and and success rate they are the sixth best in terms of epa per play and success rate against the run and so what accounts for that difference is quarterback runs right because quarterback scrambles are not run plays but they show up in yards per carry and so i went back and looked at their schedule and it was like you know ritter 7 for 30 dobs 8 for 44 tyson bajan 8 for 70 trevor lawrence 8 for 59 baker mayfield, 8 for 44. Tyson Bajan, 8 for 70. Trevor Lawrence, 8 for 59. Baker Mayfield had 8 for 31. Jordan Love had 9 for 39. He's not a big scrambler. Even Bryce Young had 2 for 34. Quarterbacks that can, you know, when you play a man-heavy defense like the Saints run with really good coverage, you have to be able to capitalize when the coverage is tight downfield. Jared Goff has 23 rushing yards on the season.

He is not a scrambler under any circumstances. And I think this is going to be tricky because he's been struggling a little bit from the pocket recently, especially when there's good coverage downfield. I think the offensive scheme is, it only takes you so far when the players are not consistently getting open. me so i have some concerns about the lions offense especially on the road um sorry man i'll drink some water you're done over here you're right i mean it's uh johnson derrick off got you in a chokehold yeah i don't think you believe this take i think is what's happening conclusion is uh the under 46 is one of my favorite bets currently on the board in this game. I think, you know, anytime I can get a high number that I like both defenses in, in today's

NFL, I don't care if the game is inside and the weather won't be a factor. 46 is too high and perfect weather for these offenses. The Saints struggle in the red zone. That means even if they do have success throwing a Camara in the short game to kind of move the ball down the field, we're going to have one of those drives like we started with on Monday night where it's like eight, nine minutes off the clock, field goal, right? That's exactly how you hit an under, especially when it's total as high as 46. So I like both defenses in this game.

I think the totals got bet up way too high right now. Well, Alante Taylor, the slot cover corner for the Saints, and some of this happens too when Lattimore's been playing terrific. So sometimes you just see that filters targets elsewhere. You don't want to go after that guy. There is no slot corner that is seeing more targets, giving up more receptions, more yards, more yards after the catch, more touchdowns, a higher NFL quarterback passer rating,

or targets per snap than Elante Taylor. He has been a very, very, very soft landing spot for opposing slot receivers. So maybe just as a prop play on Amon Ra, it's just going to be a really nice spot for Amon Ra to be able to take advantage. So yeah, I mean, I agree with you that the woes of the Saints and the Reds owner are pretty well documented at this point. It's been something that's played Carr back to his days. And as a Raider, it's a problem to maybe impact the game total, but you know, maybe for a pro Lions side, Lions team total or Amon Ra in particular, I think he's going to cook here in this spot, especially in the Dome.

So, yeah, I like that one quite a bit. All right, next, another one that I think is very interesting here. We have Denver on the road in Houston. We're at Houston, minus three in the look heads, and it opened. Quickly bet out to three and a half, has held there. Total opened at 45 and has been on the move as well. Working through key numbers now too. We're at 47, 47 and a half out there in the market as well uh broncos have won five straight hasn't been a layup line either green

bay kansas city minnesota buffalo and cleveland those are either playoff teams or playoff adjacent teams um you know like we talked about buffalo uh which is impressive when you consider how the season started for the uh the broncos there uh espn's bill barnwell had this um denver obviously allowed uh 70 points in a single game this season to miami they've allowed just 80 points total in the five game winning streak uh clark you were on this early as well i'll just get the floor here broncos and texans yeah i think the texans offense has played well for four consecutive weeks uh relative to expectations based on my metrics. And it has coincided with a shift towards a pass heavy approach and CJ Stroud playing really good football.

This is not some kind of secret. Everybody is watching CJ Stroud. He's exciting. He's playing football the way it should be played. And there's no edge saying, oh, you know, I think CJ Stroud is great because everyone thinks he's great. But it's true. And when a rookie progresses that way and the offense shifts around the rookie's strengths, it is something that should be, again, like we talked about with Kyler, the offense should be graded materially different than it was earlier in the year. So the Texans offense is definitely on the rise. And that's why we're seeing the overmoney. The Broncos defense is also on the rise.

And I think that's injury related, but I also think that they've benefited a little bit from some favorable circumstances. You mentioned a, you know, fairly tough looking schedule in that five game win streak, but you know, Jordan love five games ago is not the Jordan love that we're seeing today.

Patrick Mahomes was obviously sick in that game. I don't know how much that impacted him. Maybe that's an excuse. I don't know. But what we do know is that that was by far his Mah Mahomes' worst game of the season. The next time, Josh Allen, very timely turnovers. They weren't really stopping the Bills on a down-to-down basis. They just got turnovers at the right moments. And then the last two games against, you know, DTR and PJ Walker, terrible quarterbacks, and Josh Dobbs, who has, you know, flattened down to earth in a way

that I think makes that much less impressive. So I'm not as impressed with the Broncos defense as I think some people are. And I think that CJ Stroud is going to present a challenge to them that they haven't seen really. And then on offense, I still don't believe in the Broncos. Like they had a good game against the Dolphins in garbage time. They had a good game in comeback mode earlier in the year. But recently, it's just not been impressive. It's been a bit clunky. They've had so many short fields that they haven't been able to turn into touchdowns.

And going up against this Texans defense, it's like the Texans play a zone that really good quarterbacks with really good timing and, and, you know, understanding the route trees and where they're going to be open can really capitalize. But Russell Wilson is not that he's more of a scrambler and make plays on the run, kind of like backyard ball, the stage in his career. I'm not really that great at it, just relying on Corlin Sutton to make really incredible catches. And then Javante Williams is a type of running back that gives you an edge against really good defenses because it doesn't so much matter where he comes into contact with the defense he's going to get you three or four more yards so it's less of an advantage against defense like houston that can be beat um so i'm just not really seeing any upside for the broncos here on offense and i think the the line move to three and a half was correct

um i don't really think there's any value there at three and a half but i'm definitely not looking to go the other way in the Broncos. I could not agree more with all of it. Yeah, I just, the defense has been better without a doubt. I mean, results based, but I agree. Like offensively, there's nothing here that makes you believe that this team should be on this five game winning streak. We've talked about it. It's Russ's, it's layups and the occasional uh you know shot deep and the kind of hero ball and that's not necessarily a recipe that we should

trust um in terms of like their overall performance has been middle of the pack but defensively this has been marked by insane turnover variance well of all, plus 13 turnover margin over the past five weeks, plus 13. And not just turnovers, massively impactful turnovers. Shout out to Ben Solak for this. That 13 turnover margin has led to over 60 expected points added for Denver over the past five games. 60. It's like 12 points per game in EPA off of turnovers. So for context, in 2020, the league leader in turnover EPA didn't even break 50 over the entirety of the season. 2021 Cowboys, 2022 Niners led the league in turnover EPA

right around 70. But again, over the course of 17 games, we have a five game span with the Broncos with over 60 EPA on turnovers alone. That is not going to last. Those are timely turnovers, turnovers inside the red zone, just turnovers that lead to wins or losses. That obviously is going to regress in a massive, massive way. Again, they deserve credit. They were going to regress positively as well. So I feel like we had like this massive shift, massive way. Again, they deserve credit. They were going to regress positively as well. So I feel like we had like this massive shift to like, all right,

they're not as bad as a team that gives up 70 points. They're also not a team that's like we should expect to go and win all these games in a row without all this turnover variance. So, yeah, the Broncos are going to come back down to earth. Again, the AFC is open a little bit. They've taken advantage and they won these five games. And, you know, they positioned themselves well to maybe play some normal ball down the stretch and still win. But like you said, I'm not really seeing it offensively either.

So Connor, any thoughts here on Broncos Texans? Yeah, I think you guys hit on most of the points there that like their EPA, you know, since week six, so week seven through 12. I mean, seventh in EPA per play. But a lot of that has to do with interceptions and, uh, you know, how that positively impacts EPA success rate. They're 23rd. If you take out turnovers, they're 24th in EPA per play. Uh, and so, and 24th and success rate, but they are allowing just 6.4 yards per pass attempts this week five. And I think that, I mean, their schedule, like, I know that there were caveats to a lot of it. Like, I think it's

impressive kind of like no matter how you cut it, like it's, and in this point here, it's interesting because CJ Stroud has played obviously incredibly, like as you mentioned, but I don't think that the Bucks, Panthers, Bengals, Cardinals, and Jags are any kind of murderer's row or anyone that really should be giving anyone too many problems. And so I don't think that that necessarily changes here. I mean, Denver's like 16th in pressure rate over the last six, seven weeks, you know, since they kind of turned the corner.

So I don't think that it's going to be some massive shift there, but I think it's going to be enough to at least not allow CJ Stroud look like an MVP candidate, at least right off the top. And I don't think that's a crazy take. And on the other side,

I don't think that I fully disagree, but I kind of disagree to the extent that I don't think Houston's defense is good. And that Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense has been, it's been like dink or dunk or like a prayer. And a lot of the times the prayers have not come through. But the digging and dunking has been okay.

He has been, he doesn't turn the ball over. You know, like those, those are things that help teams win games, even though it's ugly on the field at times, he doesn't always throw well with timing. Like those can all be true at the same time and so i think three and a half i had to pick someone i would lean denver just because i think it's gonna be kind of like a

mucky like shitty kind of game but uh you know that's just my lean it's not like nothing that i'm like going crazy for to play here yeah claire's probably right with the three and a half the move is probably not a ton of value left maybe broncos do make sense that half a point makes a big difference I just think the Texans game too re-watching like you know we don't like to rail on officiating often I think that Jacks Texans game was probably one of the worst officiated games that I've seen in a very long time there were some massive massive call issues in that game on both sides the texans really took it on the chin with some ill times misses from the refs a couple massive tank dell

plays that should not have like basically what the dolphins do every single play with like the jet motion out and they called it a legal shift on tank dell on a ball he got like a 65 yarder down the field another one where he like caught a ball on the sideline great play called him out of bounds there's just a few impactful ones so that game goes a little bit different i think we have a different perception of who the texans are as well and i think that would probably impact things so still it would be texans or nothing for me i'm not really interested in the broncos at this point but uh you know gonna make some good points they still have to go out and do it they are protecting the ball but uh yeah that's that's kind of all i have for that one

yeah i think texans by three is a pretty common outcome in this one. So yeah. Yeah, three and a half makes sense at that point. All right, meat and potatoes in the show. San Francisco on the road in Philly. Our NFC Championship rematch here. Fascinating matchup. Fascinating market here as well.

The Eagles are 10 and 1. They're in the middle of an absolute gauntlet schedule-wise. Beat the Chiefs on the road. Bills in dramatic fashion last week. But now they are getting 2.5, 3 in some spots. Points at home against the 49ers. Total is 46.5. Now, fascinating because I think that's probably the right price

given the situation, even though on paper that sounds alarming. But I think the Eagles injury report here is really important, specifically the status of Lane Johnson, who we weren't expecting to sit in last week's game against the Bills, tweaked a groin, looks like he might be okay. But again, we still don't know nothing. We probably won't know until we get closer to game day here. 49ers also have what I believe is a pretty meaningful rest advantage

after playing on Thanksgiving. And then again, that Bills game, the Bills ran insane 92 plays on Sunday against the Eagles. Like, I think that matters a little bit here. Connor, what are your thoughts on Niners and Eagles? Yeah, I had non-betting friends texting me and they're like, wait, the 49ers are favored in this game? And I'm like, yes.

Like, you know, like I was like, they're the better team. You know, like I think that this is very fair. And I mean, for a couple of reasons here, like, I just can't stress it enough that in my mind, when I watched was watching those games that the Eagles got really lucky. I think that one of those times, like the chiefs game, we talked about this last week, the Kelsey fumble, my home's red zone interception, MBS dropping the ball so many ways for them to win the game last week, as Clark mentioned at the top of the show, they scored seven points through two plus quarters with the two full quarters and into the third quarter. And then it wasn't until like early in the third quarter where they started doing these like outside runs, basically that made the defense

kind of like respect what was going on. They ripped off a few big ones there. DeAndre Swift had one as well. Like they stopped kind of running the ball into the meat of the defense and just like started attacking the edges and kind of found their rhythm a little bit and then ripped off 30 points. So I think that when we think about that, like this front seven for the Niners, it's just not going to give them that. And I think that that's like,

no matter what's going to happen here, I think we're noon and I are a lot lower on this Buffalo bill or the Buffalo bills defense than, than Clark is. But I don't think that that's a very good unit. They're giving their current standing, and I think this Niners unit is massively better. And then on the other side of the ball here,

this Eagles defense is they get pressure. Their run defense is fine, but they've been exploited more in recent weeks. And then deep in their secondary, they are getting ripped on the outsides. Gabe Davis just absolutely shredded them. And now you have Brandon Ayuk, who by all means is having an incredible season. He just isn't seeing a ton of targets because

they don't have to throw the ball. Brock Brady's only thrown the ball more than 31 times, like once or twice all season. So it's like when they give him volume, when they give him like the efficiency is going to be there. And I mean, he's just going to dog walk these Philly corners. So I'm excited. I think that the Niners here are still playable as long as you can get under three which is it's two and a half here but um i'm curious to hear your guys thoughts i wonder if we're in in unison here hey for me i mean some of the last week's game i'm a bit surprised by the point total here again i i understand that this is a different beast you can survive lane johnson without you know against like a situational vaughn miller you can't survive

no lane johnson uh with you know bosa and young and hargrave and you know by it just is a very very very different beast but i liked all iterations in the total of that one like i like the bills team total over the game total like all of it this one i i love the 49ers team total i it's kind of stuck in the dead zone like 45 or 20 24 and a half 25 and a half you can take it up to 26 and a half and plus money like i think draft kings has plus 124 over 26 and a half again like the eagles are allowing the fourth highest rate of explosive plays only miami offensively has a higher rate of explosive plays than this 49ers offense i know the 49ers can slow it down sometimes, but I just, I still think that the Eagles will have success offensively. So I think you can get to the secondary of the Niners as well

if you can protect. So like if Lane Johnson is in, I think the Eagles have success offensively as well. I just don't think the Eagles really have a chance at stopping the 49ers here. So I don't know what that does to sides or totals here, Clark, but yeah, I think the Niners score a chance at stopping the 49ers here. So I don't know what that does to size or totals here, Clark, but yeah, I think the Niners score a ton of points. I don't want to rain on your parade, Noonan, but we have a small- It rained last week on my parade, buddy. It did, it did. But here's the difference. We have a small sample size of Brock Purdy playing in weather and it's not pretty. He's got small hands. We know

that. It's possible that he has a material weakness playing in the elements like Jared Goff. We've seen it before. And it looks like there might be rain in this game. And if this is another rainy game, like it was last week, like it was the week before these Eagles are just constantly in the rain. I have my concerns about what the 49ers offense looks like. It's so timing-based, it's so space-speed-based, it's all design. And if those breaks are just not as crisp, if Brock Purdy is just not as accurate in the rain, it could really make an impact to the 49ers scoring here. And so that's kind of one of my concerns with this is like, yeah, I would love to bet the Niners against the Eagles because the Niners are a better team, but the market is smart

and the market has made the 49ers road favorites of basically three against a team that is 10 and one and has been beating really, really good teams. And so as much as I would love to bet it, I just think the market is agreeing with me and I just, I don't see any edge here. Like I make it 49ers basically minus 2.8, which is exactly where the spread is. So I would have, I would have loved to have grabbed some value here, especially with the, you know, 92 plays run by the Eagles on defense,

them being a little bit tired. But I think with my concerns about Purdy and then, you know, we've seen the Eagles home field be materially impacting these games. Like they've consistently won big games at home. They, the crowd is, you know, rabid.

I hate Eagles fans, but they, they get up for their team. They make that place difficult to play in. And it's just not a spot that I think has any value left. I think it's just been squeezed out. So I'm watching the total a little bit. We got some over money coming into the market right before we went on,

went live. I think it's up to 47 and a half. If there's weather concerns, like that could be creeping up a little too high, especially if Lane Johnson may not play. Um, because I think the Eagles are the type of offense that can be disrupted by a really, really good defensive front. The only problem is, you know, Jalen Hurst is going to chuck some bombs and the Niners may not have the secondary to stop AJ Brown and Devon Smith from making those explosive plays. You know, we saw in the playoff game last year, Devon Smith had that huge catch on fourth and long.

That wasn't actually a catch, but they didn't challenge it. It's like those kinds of plays could, could turn both the spread and the over if, if Hertz is able to connect on those deep passes. So I haven't, I haven't come to full decision on this game, but I think at current prices,

my favorite look is to the under, especially if it hits 48. I was just looking at the weather. So I'm seeing 36% chance of rain right now, 10 mile per hour winds. So at that point, obviously it's worth monitoring because I think all the points you said are valid. At that point, it's not a concern to me, but I definitely, I'll hit up my weather people and see what they think where they're tracking, like, you know, actual like army, you know, things here and there, uh, you know, like looking at weather cause they'll know better than I will. But you know, based off that, I don't think so much. Whether it's whoever is clear and you know, we get confirmation of that,

then I'm not touching the under, I don't think. Yeah. I mean, based off of where the point, the team total is right now, that, then I'm not touching the under, I don't think. Yeah. I mean, based off of where the point, the team total is right now anyway, like I'm okay waiting to get confirmation on the Lane Johnson status, you know, get confirmation on the weather situation because then it just moves into 26 and a half and minus one 10 anyway, which I'm fine with betting. Yeah. I lose the plus, you know, plus money, but then I feel better about the situation. If, you know, Brock Purdy in his small hands, can't handle a wet ball but yeah i mean if clear conditions again we're you know wednesday

afternoon hard to you know play weatherman uh you know 96 hours out but yeah it's something to monitor for sure but yeah i just i can't see a scenario where the eagles don't get cooked but doesn't mean that they can't do it back but i just is one of those situations just like last week like i didn't my it wasn't like i didn't have a eagles ticket last week i just i thought the eagles were going to score a ton of points i knew the bills could too i just didn't see a scenario where the bills or where the eagles didn't score that's kind of how i feel about the niners here where the eagles can kind of hang around but there's no shot in a nice scenario where the weather's okay where brock purdy in this offense doesn't absolutely cook a little bit.

Can we get a, sorry, go for it. I think alternate spreads are in play for the 49ers. It's very on brand for me betting 49ers old spreads against the Eagles. But if, if Lane Johnson doesn't play and the 49ers defensive line dominates the matchup, like we've seen this offense really stagnate when Jalen Hurts is under pressure. He just kind of rolls out and then eventually throws it away. Like it just, it's

like on replay. And when the Eagles can't get those five, six rushing yards on rushing plays to, to get to their third and two, that's automatic. They, they really struggle. They rely on making these crazy third and 15 bombs where, you know, the defender makes a mistake. And if that's what they're relying on and the 49ers offense is clicking, like this has some potential to be, especially after that, you know, two draining big wins for the Eagles, 92 plays on defense, injuries mounting up. Like you could see this kind of be like the Eagles be like, Hey, we lose this game. We're still number one in the NFC. Like it's okay.

It's okay. It's okay. It's okay. We can move on. And so I think all spreads are in play. Yeah. I was going to say, I would love nothing more. Well,

I mean, everyone else would hate this, but I would love nothing more than a Niners, lions, baby hands off in the snow, like slop. As it'd be like a bunch of toddlers throwing snowballs out there, you know,

it'd just be, it'd be amazing. Like, you know, be so sloppy. These guys would be able to hold the ball with both their baby hands. it'd be amazing. Like, you know, be so sloppy. These guys would be able to hold the ball with both their baby hands. It'd be, I mean, cause the golf thing is fully legit too. We've seen it happen like 10 times.

They don't play in the snow though. San Francisco, Detroit, you're not going to get that. Yeah. Neutral site super neutral site game occasionally. We'll we need some other forces that play here, but you never know. They floated, they floated neutral site, uh, NFC, Ac afc championship last year right because of all the schedule mishaps i think yeah yeah never say never it would be amazing it'd be like totals would open up high because you expect both things from the offense then you just bet all the unders it'd be so good yeah clark not afraid to go against the e there. But, yeah, this is measured.

So I understand where we're at here. Eagles are a good team. All right. I want to put on the record, by my metrics, the Eagles outplayed the Bills last week. Wow. Flipped out. Look at the poor Eagles.

They're in another spot next week where they're on the wrong side of the rest again. They get dallas again gauntlet of a schedule dallas who plays thursday night so dallas is going to have a rest advantage next week in that matchup again that one's because pretty impactful for the division even if the niners were to win here this week so yeah something to watch for for sure then it lines up finally for the eagles a little bit after you know, chiefs bills, niners, Cowboys. That is rough. Yeah. I think that,

do you think there's any value on Cowboys to win the division? I mean, I'm, I'm fully like, I mean, I'm, I'm a massive home here because that parlay ticket with all my division winner predictions have the Cowboys in there. It's like the only leg that's not favored right now in the entire thing. Everything else is like looking amazing except for the Cowboys. And I don't know. I mean, I feel like if they beat the Eagles,

then what would it be tied if they win the next two and the Eagles drop the next two. So, I mean, it's plus 700 right now. I don't know. No, no.

So, so first of all, yeah, the Eagles would have to lose to the Niners and then lose to the Cowboys. Guys would have to win. But even if that happens, the Cowboys loss, the Cowboys lost to the Cardinals and the 49ers.

Whereas the Eagles lost to the jets. And the 49ers, whereas the Eagles lost to the Jets. And so tiebreaker becomes an NFC record. And so the Eagles actually have a tiebreaker in that case. So you'd also need the Cowboys to beat the Bills, and then you'd need the Eagles to drop another game. And their games are easy. Don't think there's value at current prices. That's the Eagles' division.

Say that cash out button if you got it, buddy. Yeah, I think my cash out's not looking great regardless but i was in my head i made sense i'm with you i'm with you i have cowboys division ticket that is really gonna sink me but um i'm just lying to ride hoping hoping that you know maybe jaylen hurts gets hurt i don't i don't want to wish for injuries but like things happen and it's still alive. Chiefs and Bills really couldn't pull one of these damn games out. Come on, guys. They're selling, man. It's crazy.

Think about the Cowboys-Eagles game. How many chances did the Cowboys have to win that game? The Cowboys division bet was a good bet at the price that it was before the season. 1000%. Bad run out. I'm a big preseasonseason parlay of to make the playoffs which is sunk by uh the joe burrow injury the bangles will not be in the playoffs and uh

it's no cash out option on that one anymore either unfortunately so that ship has sailed uh all right last one here kansas city at green bay some positive Packers sentiment in the market after back-to-back wins against the Chargers and Lions. Open KC minus seven, down to six, total between 42, 42 and a half. I want to believe in this Packers team. We all had optimism in the preseason. And if I'm trying to choose right now between this being a sustainable shift or being very matchup specific, I lean towards it being very matchup specific. Chargers pass defense is one of the worst in the league all season.

And since week five, we talked about a little bit at the top with the Lions and the Saints matchups. Lions defense, 26th in EPA per play, 30th in dropback success rate allowed. You can pick them apart. These are not serious defenses. And over that same timeframe, the Chiefss defense second in drop back success rate allowed just a very far cry from the previous matchups here for jordan loving company clark uh what are your thoughts here on chiefs and backers yeah i agree i'm i'm big on the packers emergence for a lot of the same reasons why i'm high on the

texans offense i'm high on the packers offense in that a young quarterback is starting to play well and they're starting to trust him and that confidence is building. It's real. And so I think the Packers offense should be moved up. But the last four games in which that has happened has come against secondaries that are definitely exploitable, like you said. I was looking at PFF grades of the top corner on each of these teams, and the Rams' best corner is the 45th best corner.

The Steelers' best corner is 29th. The Chargers' is 28th. The Lions' is Brian Branch at 21st, but the rest of their secondary is obviously exploitable. You know, Trent McDuffie's the fourth best graded cornerback for the Chiefs, or in the NFL, plays for the Chiefs. And so I think that's going to disrupt a lot of their number one options.

And Jordan Love is really good at going to his number one option. So having to read the field, read the defense, make progressions with a pass rush that can get home could be a little bit of a letdown spot for the Packers, especially after two huge wins. The odds of them sweeping against the Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs is pretty low, but that's all it takes is a win against the Chiefs and they get that. I think if the Packers do win this game, they'll probably make the playoffs. But even if they don't, I think they

can still make the playoffs and I think they know that. So I'm seeing, you know, it's a home game. There's another game with potential weather, maybe even snow, like this is Green Bay, right? So that kind of rain in the forecast with close to freezing temperatures can easily turn into a snow game. I know that Mahomes can play in the snow. I don't know if Jordan Love can play in the snow. I guess we'll see. And I guess we'll have to know

because he's playing in Green Bay. But this is a spot where I like the Chiefs, you know, slightly at the current numbers, but not enough to make a play on it. I'm kind of evaluating some derivative markets on this one. You know, we've seen the Chiefs really struggle in the second half. And I think that some of that is actual signal, like I've been kind of resistant to it. But I think that there is an element of them, you know, kind of putting their foot on the gas in the

first half, and then they've been struggling to make those in-game adjustments and really finish. So maybe a first half bet on the Chiefs if the number gets to three. I think right now it's three and a half. But definitely not looking to play the Packers. I've been playing them in the last few weeks, whether it's on the over or the team, and it's been successful. But I think the market has finally caught up, and I'm no longer seeing value betting on the Packers in this one.

Yeah, all good points there. Connor, what are your thoughts here on Packers Chiefs? It was interesting because I thought that the Raiders came out and played significantly better last week against the Chiefs defense that I think is stellar. But if you go back and watch, basically Aiden O'Connell and the Raiders offense crushed during the scripted plays and then were horrible after. So it was two drives. First drive, 75 yards, touchdown. Second drive was like 70 yards, missed field goal. Third drive was like an 80 yard Josh Jacobs run for a touchdown.

Outside of that, they played like horrible. And because the Chiefs defense is good. It was just Aiden O'Connell relying on Devontae Adams, who is still awesome. And Jacoby Myers, who is also still very underrated, who like won in the routes and they had good plays on. But again, like I don't think that the Packers really have that kind of option. Like Christian Watson isn't anywhere near

that caliber. And I know I'm a known hater, but still, even if there's some good games, I don't really think that that's in his range of outcomes right now. And like some of the other guys are okay. They're fine. I just don't think that they're quite on that level yet. So it's going to rely a lot on, I think on that scripted place to get them going and then maybe he can continue, but I really just don't think so. I don't think think that they're quite on that level yet. So it's going to rely a lot on, I think, on the scripted plays to get him going. And then maybe he can continue. But I really just don't think so. I don't think that that's going to be the case here. And in years past, I think you could bank on this Green Bay Packers team relying on

their running game. Whereas like AJ Dillon is limited with a groin injury. Like their running game has been bad. And so like you can run on the Chiefs defense, but I don't think that that's really a strength of the Packers right now. Which whereas I see the strength being like aggressive and pushing the ball down field and like winning, like in further areas to open up the run potentially, which is still not been really been opened up, but you know, hypothetically, and I don't really see that playing out here.

So I think Casey moved down to six, uh, like recently I liked them at six. I think that's, that's a fine look here because, you know, all that that I laid out here. And I think their offense is, I mean, still kind of figuring their way out here, but Packers run defense still not very good. So I think that's another extra edge here for the Kansas City offense to exploit. Yeah.

No, Aaron Jones again, probably too, right? That's impactful to me. You know, AJ Jones beat up a little bit. That's not great. You know, if you're going to have to ride that. Yeah, McDuffie's great. Jerry Sneed's awesome too. It's just a very different setup than what the Packers have experienced a little bit so far.

So, yeah, they were very aggressive and took advantage of being, I think, taking shots down the field in that spot against Detroit, not taking their foot off the gas a little bit. Yeah, it feels like a great teaser leg. You want a primetime teaser leg because that Jags one, Clark, I know you're on too. That Jags teaser leg feels like it's a really good look against the Bengals there. I don't know if you can get the – before this cruises down too much,

you can just get the Chiefs down to a pick. Basically the same thing with the Jags. It feels like a nice play for me. If you don't chase the dragon on Sunday evening when things didn't go well, you just thought, all right, let's just tease the last two games of the week and let's make it all back here. But I, I know you're in on the Jags teacher leg as well.

This is not financial advice right now. You need to put the little laugh. I think, I think the Packers are alive. I don't, I don't know that I would tease the Chiefs. I mean, Jordan Love's been playing really well. Yeah, my numbers say there's maybe a slight, slight edge on the Chiefs, but the way that the Packers offense has been playing, they're live at home. I don't know. I think

maybe some people are still sleeping on the Packers and what their potential is. I don't think I'm sleeping on them. I think it's they're a little overrated in the market currently based off of the last couple of weeks results which I think is speaks more to where the Lions past events is and we know the Chargers we know who the Chargers are at this point like I'm back from my house isn't gonna Jared goof it up I and I think too like look we saw a shift with the way that the the chiefs use their receivers receivers have all been great oh yeah rishi rice throw the ball to rishi rice 10 times see what happens yeah and and who in that who on the packers defense is going to guard kelsey

uh jonathan owens it's not gonna take two guys it's gonna take two guys so you know if if any of the receivers uh chiefs receivers can win one-on-one, then, yeah, I think the Chiefs are fine. Daddy Johnny, great name, feels he's very bullish on the Packers here in the chat. Hey, Jordan Love, four tighties. You can make some good money on that, buddy. Probably, you know, you're probably getting 10-1 or something pretty close on that for Jordan Love chucking four tighties around.

So, yeah, you have an opinion on football? Disagree? You can go to the market, go to the window. You're probably getting 10 to 1 or something pretty close on that for Jordan Love chucking four tutties around. You have an opinion on football? Disagree? You can go to the market, go to the window, and lay the money yourself and get down on it. Biases say it's okay. Is this Paulson's burner or what? I think, yeah.

Paulson logged in on the wrong account or what? I would love to know that he has a daddy Johnny burner. It's weird seeing someone who's more bullish on the packers than i am i've been yeah it's true last couple weeks has been all packers where's our buddy george at it george that show you do that show with george right uh he was he was big on the packers preseason where is he at on on them yeah we've been talking about the last so like two weeks ago on our show i talked about jordan love and how he's progressing and how we should be you know anticipating move forward and then last week he did the same thing it's like we've been banging that drum um but i think everyone's everyone's on it now so it's not a minority opinion uh what else is on the board

that we like this week any uh any leans con, any notes that you have on anything we, we didn't talk about that you want to highlight here. It's there's a couple of games that are like, how is this team favored by this much bucks minus six chargers, like minus six against the Patriots. There's just so many games where I think I have to dig into deeper, but I just like, I, you know, I, I want to instantly click one side, but then I know that that's just not the obvious answer. And one of the, you know, a pretty liquid market. Uh, so

for me, it's kind of nothing right now, but, um, dolphins, I mean, like, it's just really hard for me to see, like they could legit score 70 points again. Like, I mean, that's just like, not even, I just don't know how, how the Washington is going to stop their passing game. So I'm, I'm very intrigued by that. Those are some of the other notes that I've had here. Yeah, I pick some Patriots because I hate myself. Oh, man. I don't get it.

My numbers, you know, like I do play-by-play evaluations, and I'm looking at it, and I'm just like, the Chargers should not be laying anywhere close to six on the road against New England. I agree. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills, and I get it. It's like, who wants to bet on the Patriots now? But if the line is wrong, the line is wrong.

Who's starting a quarterback? How do they move the ball? It's the Chargers. I mean, it probably doesn't matter. Maybe it doesn't matter. How do they move the ball? It's the Chargers. I mean, it probably doesn't matter. Maybe it doesn't matter. I don't know. It looks like today's practice was Bailey Zappi. They moved the ball fine against the Giants.

It was just stupid, stupid interceptions. But I wish I could be like, oh, well, just like a tip pass. These were terrible, terrible throws. Horrible. Mack Jones especially. Just, I don't know, like ruined well, just like a tip pass. These were terrible, terrible throws. Horrible. Mac Jones, especially. Just, I don't know, like ruined the whole game for the Patriots because they were driving. They were consistently driving, running the ball on first down

for eight yards. You know, I don't know. I'm making that up, but it felt like it. And then they had so many quick screen passes where, like, the guy catches it and it's like four blockers in front of him gets 15 yards. Like, it was just easy, smooth sailing. And then Mac Jones is like, Oh,

those are giant. I'm gonna throw you the ball. And it was like, if they do that against the chargers, you know, yeah, they may, they may get blown out, but all it takes is not turning the ball over. There's long drives where they run the ball. Well, they get the screen passes out there. It's going to kill a clock. It's going to make it hard. And the charges offense just does not deserve to be laying six on the road against a defense with a pulse. So yeah, I had to take it. That's fair. You guys, I mean, I feel like I should go back and just like cold takes expose the entire Bill O'Brien circle jerk that was going on on Twitter,

where everyone thought that he was going to like save Mac Jones and the Patriots offense. And I mean, I feel like a fair take was like, yeah, they're going to be better. They can't be much worse than the Joe judge offense, which is, I'm pretty sure the take that we had, I mean, he's not a very good offensive coordinator either. Like,

I just don't know, like he's not good either. So I just don't know where that came from. And I think it's, it's hilarious that people were like, oh, they're going to be like a top 10 offense. Cause they're garbage.

It'd be, it'd be a win-win. Let me hear anyone say that. If the, if the Patriots. If the Patriots cover, then that means they are way – yeah, if the Patriots cover, then I win. If the Patriots don't cover, it means they lost, and I win my season one title over, so that'll be good. Or under season one title over. As a Patriots fan, I've been blessed to have a lot of Super Bowl celebrations

and Super Bowl memories and like reactions to massive plays. And, you know, when you think of like the Malcolm Butler play and, you know, some of the great Julian Edelman performances and big playoff games and Emond Dolan, some great wins coming back against the Ravens. A lot of good memories of football over the last 20 some years. I had a very similar reaction to that duck hook kick at the end of that game. I was thrilled when that guy missed that. I jumped off my couch. I was so ecstatic that he missed that kick because look, they're not a good team. They don't have anything to build for the future. You need to get a quarterback. You need to get an answer to that. Or look, if you miss out on the quarterback, you need to get Marvin Jones Jr. you need to get you know marvin jones

jr you need to get something that's available in this april's draft you don't get that by beating the giants here i was thrilled that they did not push that game into ot and solidified at least the tiebreaker against the giants uh if things kind of you know continue to go that way so i like that the bears are a little bit feisty right now they won a football game we have the you know the cardinals and Kyler. They're going to win at some point because they're okay. They're competitive. Patriots look non-competitive, and I am thrilled that, hey,

we'll let the Bears make their choice at number one, and the Pats can be sitting there at number two. Yeah, it's time to move on from the Mac Daddy experience. He's just in his head he's just you know he's broken he's literally broken he looks broken he looks broken out there i mean it's it's on his face it's in his body language it's yeah it's bad uh clark i want your thoughts on the this is a little bit tough and we are moving we're still a little short of some key numbers it's colts titans total um titans are tough to like get in on on totals because they're the bottom side of this offense is just awful but like just colts games just go over uh almost all the time um

and having this game again second time in the division all those things uh what are your thoughts on uh on-Titans? Any thoughts on that one? I'm right on the number. I mean, the Colts play with pace, which is why they often go under or over, and that really matters. But I think their defense continues to be underrated. And so kind of like offsetting angles that I think the Titans aren't a great offense, but you know,

getting over 43 and a half, 42 and a half is like, it's like right, right where I think the median is. Yeah. They might get Juju Brents back their best corner. They lost obviously, you know, Jonathan Taylor. So that probably steals a little bit of ceiling from the offense there. There's a lot. Yeah. Falcons Jets game is fascinating to me as well. I played a little

bit of uh i sprinkled on aaron rogers comeback player of the year at 18 to 1 uh it was the best in the market look if this dude comes back in place the other alternative is we have a you know minus 300 you know cornerback who's played like two snaps this season um you know i think two is like four to one. This is an insane situation, but like they activated him to practice. You know, it's kind of a crazy situation. It gets really interesting if they can win this game here

against the Falcons there. But again, like Falcons, they have two and a half, three point favorites there in New York. I think that one's kind of fascinating. But yeah, you guys have anything else you want to highlight here? I mean, I have a hard time believing

that he comes back, but I mean, I do too. I can't believe we're here. I mean, they're like, they're four and seven and they're underdogs, right? To the, are they, yeah, they're underdogs to the. There's no reason for it, but this is, we're talking about Aaron Rogers, right? We're talking about someone who definitely.

He's such an attention whore. Right. Beat of his own drum. But we're talking about Aaron Rodgers, right? We're talking about someone who definitely – He's such an attention whore. Right. Beat of his own drum. I don't think he cares that they're eliminated. I think he still wants to come back to be the dude that came back from an Achilles in the same season, right? He's been drinking his – taking mushrooms, drinking mushrooms, using like dolphin sex, whatever. It's like he's needed to get himself back.

I think he still wants to come back and prove that he was the dude that did that. That's part of his put under my plaque in Canton kind of a situation. So I get your point. It makes less sense, but yeah, I think he's totally – if he can play, he wants to. And they have Tim Boyle, right? It'll be 100% his decision too. I mean, what are the coaches going to tell him?

No. Like, they're all, you know, lots of them are going to be fired anyway. No, we like Trevor Simeon. Because in their white boy, we'll still be starting four weeks. I agree. Yeah. I mean, he's got to get benched. I mean, do you think he makes it through this week?

I was considering that. There's some props out for, like, him already. I don't think he makes it. It's like a full line. I think that's a really interesting look, to be honest. Yeah. Yeah. I don't think he makes it through.

It was rough for parts of that game there. It's not really a normal football game whatsoever. But, yeah. Any bounce back here? Like the coach fired narrative, viewing theory in Carolina, Tampa Bay there, Clark, with moving on from Frank Reich. Any thoughts there? Not really.

No, I mean, if I see, I basically don't project a team to do worse with a different coach. I don't expect a coach firing to make the team worse. So if my numbers like them, I don't factor in the coach firing that's kind of how i built in the the bounce back but for me i don't like them you know if it was still frank reich i wouldn't i wouldn't really be playing that so it's like the the problems just like aren't fixable right like it's like they're all the lines sucks the receivers still suck like you can't implement a new system where guys are just automatically open in like a week and their

new head coach was already their play caller like he was already their offensive coordinator so yeah and thomas brown is their new play caller right like the guy that yeah the guy that sucked for three weeks is now they're like he had a chance already there's this is not the type of situation where you see and it's not like i don't think the players hated frank reich like sometimes you see like josh mcdaniel's got fired and the locker room was like yeah okay we're gonna have some fun stogies yeah i don't i don't really think frank reich was like hated i think he just you know it just wasn't a great team and i don't think they're gonna be like oh now frank reich is gone we can have some fun i just don't i don't see it yeah yeah still suck uh we probably get joe flacco this week um just very interesting

dynamic i wish we were getting flacco wentz that'd be uh you know just a fantastic uh marquee yeah that market's so bizarre but i mean it's what it's it's almost i mean not like the eagles rams but when you look at it you would have been you know told you two weeks ago that that game is happening and that's the line you'd be like, what the heck are you talking about? But it makes sense currently. It was fine. Yeah.

I also think part of it is that, you know, the Cardinals defense, I think is garbage. So we're inflating the Rams offense, maybe a little bit there too, but yeah, it's do I want to back Joe Flacco off the street on the road in an NFL

football game right now? No, no, no, I do not. So yeah week but yeah and again limited slate because we have six teams on a buy so i think we almost touched on every game at that point so look at us under an hour or two pros uh again you want more information on the betting subscription jump in the show notes here four four dot com slash plans you can get in discord get all of our official plays check out everything that we do again before you take off, hit subscribe wherever you're listening or watching. You can come back on Friday to hang out with us to bet week 13 props.

So for Clark and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks everybody. you