Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 14 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: December 4, 2024

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen discuss their best bets ahead of Week 14!

hello and welcome to move the line presented by draft king sportsbook ryan noonan back week 14 joined here as always like a red are you i don't know are you so hot that it's white hot like what's what's more hot is it white hot or red hot because whatever i think white hot yeah white hot yeah yeah that's been your nfl uh betting season it's been really exciting like i felt like last year i like morphed our discord into a defensive minded uh you know tackle prop betting uh machine and now you've warped everyone into this like everyone's just talking about like just they're just talking about unders you've shifted you've shifted the matrix uh in the discord because you've been absolutely killing it what's going on buddy yeah not much it's uh it's i i trying to like figure out reasons about

like why i'm doing better and i think a lot of it's like luck uh to be honest but like i was thinking about it last year how many times that i lost like an under in like the last like two minutes of a game which obviously you're gonna lose unders like you know more at the end of the game than the beginning of the game but like there was just like every week it felt like two to three plays where it was like oh this guy caught a 40 yard pass on the last drive or like you know something like that that just like hasn't that hasn't happened this year and so like if that stuff's not happening like unders are just gonna win at a crazy rate. I think I've also improved my process, you know, getting to talk with you, Stu, Hunter, Jake every week. That's been super helpful and a couple other things.

But yeah, it's I'm over 30 something units. So I've already had my best year in NFL betting publicly ever. And we're only in week 14. So hopefully can keep adding to that. And we have a futures portfolio that's looking solid. We can talk about a little bit of that actually, because I do want to touch on a little bit real quick on the MVP race because the odds are getting out of whack.

So I don't know if you have any thoughts here. I know we said we were going to dive into the games, but now you got me thinking about, because I did play Jalen Hurts MVP. Yeah. I'm always ready to talk futures. And even though we didn't plan it out and we don't have necessarily well crafted thoughts or well extra research,

I think they're fun markets to navigate, especially we touched on maybe next week because we'll get through the buys. Everyone will kind of be dealing with the same amount of games played. We won't have anything like that. We'll be dealing with like, it is the stretch where, you know, these things are one these things are decided we've talked we've touched on this since september you know these things are interesting

to track we obviously did pre-season content around it and i even said at the time like it's like it's kind of like pre-season content it's not necessarily a great time to jump into the futures market because they are so narrative driven in december in this last home stretch we're kind of entering so yeah i mean runaway favorite josh allen at this point um you're typically not laying juice um even the mvp market very often this early in december that's where we're at right now you've been making the case banging the drum for jalen hertz kind of like with a long position thought of the eagles being you know real viable contender to be the number one scene the nfc uh obviously him being a driving force behind that we've pushed back on that a little bit because saquon's been

such a massive piece of that not that saquon necessarily had a path to mvp but maybe he does uh maybe that could be part of your discussion here as well, because you feel like he was sucking some of the Hertz value out. He stayed stagnant while Saquon continued to climb, but obviously last week too, with Lamar losing, I shifted things a little bit, obviously a nice win, solidifying the division for the bills, but yeah, take it wherever you want. Yeah. I was going to say that.

I feel like the process on kind of our thoughts initially of our own Jalen Hertz MVP are panning out. You know, the Eagles are dominating, they're winning games, they're scoring plenty. Their metrics are all good, but it's just all become through Saquon and not through Jalen hurts.

And so that has resulted in Saquon being plus three 50 to plus 500, which is where, about where I thought Jalen hurts would be. Instead, Jalen hurts is 60 to one because he hasn't had to throw. And I mean, that's a problem. Like if you're not going to ever score ever, I mean, this was the last week was the week, you know, like the Ravens game was what I thought like, oh, the Ravens are going to

push them. Jalen Hurts is going to come out of his shell a little bit. It'll be, you know, maybe 300 yards, three total touchdowns, you know, one or two on the ground. That's like a statement game. I mean, they just handed the ball off and that was it. Cause they didn't need to do anything else. Like, and they're, it just, and that, like, that is not going to win.

Jalen Hurts and MVP. I think Saquon is very alive. I mean, the next stretch of games was very winnable and he could run for his prop this week is 113 yards against Carolina. That's one of the highest props I can remember ever outside of, I think Derrick Henry like Titans, Derrick Henry a couple of years ago was in like the one, like high one Oh five,

one eight, like around that range. I don't know if he ever got to one 13 to be honest. So his prop is below his season average in the softest possible matchup. Yeah. So like as wild as this prop is, you know, it's hard to think of a scenario where, you know, in the softest possible matchup. Yeah. So like as wild as this prop is, you know, it's hard to think of a scenario where, you know, against the Panthers

with their run defense right now that he doesn't become a massive, massive focal point. But yeah, that's the problem is I think your process on Hertz was really, really solid. I thought that at the time and even that number hung out there for a little bit longer than I thought we thought it would. Now it's drifted the other way because of just kind of the shift of what's happened in the market.

Yeah, I think it just is what it is. I mean, did I add more at 100-1? Yeah, of course I did. I mean, I got to 100-1 last week on FanDuel. If for some reason Saquon gets hurt or Jalen Hurts starts playing better, or for some reason they're forced to gets hurt or Jalen hurts, you know, starts playing better. Uh, or like, you know, for some reason they're forced to throw ever in any of these games. I think that is legit shots still. Um, and Josh Allen plays the, the lions coming up again, like Brock Purdy was minus

three 50, uh, last year, something like that. Uh, and just blew it because he had like the worst game ever against the ravens uh and then like his odds literally mid-game shifted from being a minus favorite to a plus favorite and then not winning the award we saw prior to this uh jalen hurts was actually the mvp favorite then got injured the last two weeks and didn't win patrick williams wins like that like this looks right now like josh allen's award if josh allen gets injured or doesn't play well against the Lions, the narrative is going to shift like that,

and the media will forget and just be like, oh, who's done it for me lately? I mean, yeah. So I don't know. I wouldn't lay minus 225. Josh Allen looks good right now for MVP, but these things just change unbelievably quick. So I'm not ready to lay any Jews.

So looking at it now right josh allen then obviously he dropped down to saquon lamar's falling off but he's still between you know 8 50 and 11 uh jared goff still hovering around a bettable number i would think 11 15 on fanduel um you drop down to my homes 25 is a nice number on draft kings is there based on the current board not willing to lay josh allen money at all uh and knowing maybe we're dead on jalen hurts is there anything else that's of interest to you at current numbers oh man i mean not like if the packers went out would it be crazy for jordan love i mean would that be like i mean they they probably wouldn't even win the division they have the lines this week right yeah i mean if out, it's, it's a pretty nice stretch.

I mean, Detroit, Seattle on the road are the next two. You know, then they get new Orleans in the middle. Then they have two more in the division. They go at Minnesota home to Chicago. So those are important games for them. And they could win out. And I mean, Detroit, we have to probably lose again, though. They would have, I don't know what, depending on the differential in the

conference, because they would have basically probably lose again, though they would have, I don't know what, depending on the differential in the conference, because they would have basically split the series against Detroit in terms of winning the division. But yeah, I mean, they get the number one seed. You know, they need Minnesota to scuffle as well on top of beating Minnesota the one time. But yeah, I mean, that's, it's something. I mean, 80 to one, you know, like I think crazier things have happened.

I'm still not super interested. Like the Lamar golf tier, to be honest. And I worry there's a little bit of like award fatigue with my homes, but at the same time, like they just, they just keep winning. So like, what if, if Josh Allen stumbles and maybe say Quan is like fine down the stretch, like, did they just give it to my homes? Like just because he won like every game.

I mean – The challenge with Josh Allen is that the finish – so they play the Rams this week. We'll touch on that game. Then they go next week to Detroit, which is obviously a very interesting game. Then they're kind of cruise control, right? Does that hurt him from an MVP standpoint? It's New England and the Jets at home, week 18 at New England.

Maybe he's playing for that right because they still actually have a path to the number one seed through kansas city so like the bills still have something to play for but does like alan really not having to push anything passing wise out of in four out of the next five games is that kind of working against him a little bit it could be too right he's also he's going to shift into this like jalen hurts territory where they're going to go massive massively run heavy they've been massively run heavy for most of the year anyway he's a part of that as his hurts but does that hurt kind of the the numbers that you would need to get there too that's that's kind of the struggle which is i feel like he makes a ton of sense he deserves to be the favorite

just really hard to suggest anyone bets that at 225 right now so it's tough yeah i mean we know that they want to like run the ball i mean we've said it every single time we break down the bills like if they can run the ball they're going to just do that and then let josh down and do whatever he wants like when he needs to um they they have gone past heavy sometimes but that's also been some of the games where it's kind of backfired, you know, like the Ravens game particularly was, uh, not good. Uh, and so, you know, I think that, yeah, like, I mean, like you said, like the Patriots down the stretch, like some other teams, like they could easily return the ball. So yeah, I think that this week or I guess next week, whenever they play the lions, maybe two weeks from now, um, that's,

I mean, really like vital basically to his mvp talk here so i don't know it's it's not a market that i'm necessarily looking to get into but i do think it's one that's interesting and it's one that this year especially seems like even more fragile like it just seems super like very fragile because obviously josh allen's playing great but again like they could go run heavy and they could lose the lions and that obviously both those things hurt his his case down the stretch so i just don't know what the answer is um i don't do you have any other like longer shot takes that make sense i just i'm looking on the board like if joe burrow if the bangles were going to make

the playoffs i think joe burrow would be great but like they're not going to play off so they're not gonna make the playoffs anymore yeah that that is if the fever dream has died for sure. After last week, they needed to, to get that done. Pushback. We're poking a hole on Josh Allen with a thought of them losing at Detroit.

Yeah. What if they went, what if, well, if one of Detroit wins, is that bode well for Jerry golf who at 15, again, we still have the Bugaboo,

which you called out this summer. We have a pending road game against the Bears in weather, basically the only game all season where we thought Goff is at home all year, the only game that possibly could have bad weather, cold, small hands Goff in Chicago in December. But does that bode well for him, right? If Goff plays well, they knock off the presumed MVP favorite. They solidify the number one seed,

start to look like they're solidifying the number one seed in the NFC, hold off a really hot Eagles team. Does Jared Goff start to continue to make some sense at 15, which is kind of where he's been hovering for most of the season yeah uh he has some of the same jalen hurts issues with like uh they run the ball so well um but he also has been throwing significantly more and been playing better on that you know even when when they haven't had to so yes i think it helps also chicago's defense is basically taking a nosedive um just because they're so beat up like they just haven't been as good nearly as good and i mean they haven't

been a good run defense all year and their past even has gotten a good bit worse i would say um last couple weeks just with how beat up they are so for sure like the the pathways that i thought of the bears being like a good defense and like kind of maintaining that are just making less and less sense. So it's kind of like on a weather basis. Now at this point, do you know what day that they play or like what week they played? The weather in Chicago is already taking a turn for the worst.

And we're looking at, I mean, it's going to be five degrees. It's going to be single digit degrees for the entire month of December in Chicago. Tomorrow gets pretty brutal. it's week 16 uh so we're three weeks out including this week so yeah um yeah forecast six degrees low of zero and that's without any wind so we're probably looking at negatives with the wind i mean golf's just not gonna throw like it's like you know if he does throw just need to put an alert on my phone right now bet jared golf unders it open i don't care

what you can give it to me like 175 it's probably still a good look under golf no matter what i got the yellow sticky note on my wall yeah i don't i don't have any post-it notes because i'm not a boomer but uh you know maybe i can go to one of your guys houses you got hey i'm a boomer i'm a boomer but i showed you last week even i had a gibbs no matter what note to myself but it was digital it was in the spreadsheet you did you did and it won it won without it with him having four yards in the second half or whatever like six carries and we won gibbs no matter what but yeah i'm i have as a boomer definitely the boomer of the show comfortably i've moved you know don't keep uh notebooks anymore it's definitely been something that i've done in the past but you know everything is everything is digital now for sure but uh yeah

golf would be the only one right because like if the hole for josh allen is a loss to detroit that also helps golf and he's in the mix. Schedule for the Lions is kind of interesting to finish out. Green Bay, obviously, this week, they host Buffalo. Then back-to-back on the road, Chicago and San Francisco. That San Francisco game, obviously, a little less interesting, but obviously they still have some teeth, depending on who's healthy and who's playing there.

Then a Week 18 game at home against Minnesota, which week 18 gets wonky depending on who needs what and things like that. So definitely some things that can be decided. It's just one of those things where like, how do we reconcile Detroit and the awards market? If they end up going 16 and one, they probably even with high expectations, probably be need to be represented somewhere. I know that,

you know, Dan Campbell as coach of the year is viable for sure but again the pushback on campbell for coach of the year has always been well the expectations were high right so like uh coach of the year has been an award that's been increasingly given to a coach who's exceeded pre-season expectations so that's a challenge there too so look there could be holes in some like narrative award basis. They write, like we could have a running back when MVP, we could have like teams not represented. We had the,

like the Browns way overrepresented last year, right? Like those things can shift and start to happen. So following into some of these, like just preconceived notions of what the award markets always are, because they've been that way the last couple of years might be a blind spot to the market it might be a way that to have opportunities so uh as of now i'm not super interested in anything it may be be goff other

than josh allen i'm not laying minus two in a corner on josh allen now but i played so well i do think just like the consensus of the national sports voting media is that josh allen is really well perceived um he's easy to cheer for buffalo has been you know in the mix and he's been very much a part of that for they just won their fifth straight division uh but they haven't really broken through like wanting to award them for some of that i think is you know gets into voters head that's why there is mahomes fatigue That's why there is Mahomes fatigue. That's why there is Lamar fatigue, even though they're playing well and they have a case. It's like, can the Chiefs blow anybody out?

Right? Like, Mahomes isn't – there's no gaudy numbers for Mahomes. There's also voter fatigue, just fatigue with Mahomes in general, which is 1,000% not fair. But we saw this historically with, like, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, who just couldn't win awards unless they had these historically outlier seasons above their high level of their baseline expectation. I don't know that that's necessarily what we're seeing from Kansas city,

even though they're 11 and one, but it's probably golf would be the other one for me, but interesting discussion for sure. I think your, your hurts process was really strong, even though it's not going to win. Yeah, that sucks,

but it is what it is. And last point that I'll make on this awards process here i mean after you know for comeback player of the year last year after we saw a guy literally die on the field be resurrected and then play uh and not win the award to a guy who just came off the couch and just ripped it for like three games um i just just be careful laying any juice like you know be careful out there folks because uh you, because we have no idea about what is going on in voters' heads. Comeback Play of the Year Award is the worst award there is. I think it's probably still the worst,

even though they tried to put some parameters around what it is that you can vote for, but it's still a voter. It's like a suggestion. It's like a stop sign. We would like you to stop here um someone's still driving the car they still have to make the choice to actually stop so we'll see what happens with that i mean hamlin didn't play last year now it's funny he's actually playing and playing well uh in a good starting for a really good defense that's

performing well whereas last year he couldn't get on the fields um at all so it's really hard to give him an award 13 to 1 i mean 15 to 1 right now on on mgm i mean comeback player of the year can you come back from dying two years ago and not playing the year before is that in the guidelines so they i don't know the guidelines yeah i don't know if they have that spelled out they read the bylines i feel like that's you know the small print for sure yeah i, I don't know. That award sucks. Yeah, it's just a weird award. I still have the same argument for the defensive player of the year

is the Josh Allen thing. I don't think TJ Watt is someone that you should be laying minus 220, minus 250 on. But at the same time, a lot of the other contenders aren't really on playoff teams miles garrett um not going to the playoffs so you can get a big number on him on fanduel but fanduel's priced it correctly like he's just doesn't have a shot to win the award they're they're not a playoff team uh xavier mckinney uh yeah interceptions are fantastic but like kirby joseph has just as many as kirby joseph uh 17 to 1 no um it seems like if you're just going to give it to the guy who leads the league

in interceptions uh you'd probably want to go down the board and sprinkle on kirby instead in case he he runs hot i still think um daniel hunter is is viable chris jones is interesting that could be a path to kansas city getting some acknowledgement for their season uh 22 available on fan duel but not something i'm dying to get to but just another spot where just wait and see what happens down the stretch don't go laying you know throwing tj watts josh allen parlay um you know the first week of december thinking that you know you're gaming the system there i don't even know if you Allen parlay, you know, the first week of December thinking that, you know, you're gaming the system there. I don't even know if you could parlay those, but if someone wants to parlay anything, they should be able to, I mean, books should know that they should, I don't know why they won't

let people get down on. Fan duel randomly lets you like, it's like sometimes they let you, sometimes they don't throughout the off season too. They just like randomly turn it off and on. Yeah, this, that would not be advisable, but i'm sure people are gonna do it anyway so yeah someone heard that right now and they're like yeah i'm gonna do that yeah i can get even money on the helen and watt i mean this is it's a new etf you know this is easy yeah yeah so yeah we'll wait and see we'll get we'll dive in a little bit longer uh next week we'll

kind of tackle all the awards, see if there are any futures that tickle the fancy of the other and see where we're at. Again, we're only the start of the bye. And again, there will be things that happen this week that change thoughts and narratives around that. If all of a sudden the Rams upend the Bills, then all of a sudden that might shift a little bit.

If Josh Allen struggles, throws a pick or two, they can't get a win there in LA. So, all right. Remind folks that we have two episodes of Move the Line each week. You can listen to Move the Line wherever you listen to podcasts. You can watch along live with us on YouTube, on the 444Bets YouTube channel. Get a betting subscription.

You want to get access to everything that we do at 444. Again, no matter what you're doing in the speculation space all season long, 444.com slash plans. The betting sub gets you access to all of it, gets you in the Discord. You want to tail all those unders, those sweaty unders that Connor is putting out and cashing

at a crazy rate. Fun way to watch football suddenly. Or if you don't watch football, it's probably even more fun because watching the unders personally, I find to be just completely insufferable. Now I bet like a tackle under, like I don't want to watch that game, especially if I can middle linebacker that plays every snap, like get off the screen. It is a brutal, brutal watch.

So if you like to just bet, not watch football, unders totally for you, jump in the discord four four dot com slash plans you can scoop it up for a discount already on the site and you can use any of our partners as well uh rebet is a great way to take access of that too if you have been hanging out with us have questions let us know i'd love to share more information there all right connor let's get into some of the games here. Let's bring up ProfitX, as we've been sharing that of late. It is mind-blowing in a way when you kind of look at some of the juice that we have to lay on some of these books compared to what we have over at

ProfitX, which is another one of our partners. She's going to bring on someone from the company to talk a little bit more in depth about it next week, share some of our partners. She's going to bring on someone from the company to talk a little bit more in depth about it next week, share some of the thoughts on what's going on over there. Cause we're really excited about it. If you're not familiar, ProfitX is a sports exchange, which is very prominent overseas.

It is peer to peer instead of you versus the house. So that massively reduced the VIG that you have to pay. So you're basically, you know, You've versed the house, so that massively reduced the VIG that you have to pay. So you're basically 3% from net winnings instead of the 10% to 20% juice that you're laying on a standard line, which is absolutely wild. And then you're basically just need someone to pick up the other side. So it's a losers pay winners kind of scenario. You just need someone to take the other side of your action. And the wins come in form of the price that you get to pay or not pay elsewhere. So, Conor, anything to add to ProfitX?

Yeah, two other things, I guess, just available in over 40 states. So, again, if you don't have a sportsbook, I was telling Paulson today, I was like, hey, you should download one of these sweepstakes apps and, you know, preferably one of our partners that we actually think are good um because you can use them in you know states like california florida other places so i definitely recommend that um also for any like top down bettors or anyone like looking for like to arb uh this is a great spot they consistently have like prices that are just different and so that can help you just like get more down and like there's good liquidity on a lot of these things so um if that's kind of your mo i know a lot of people got limited other books so this is like a good spot i think to do that as well um if you're just looking to art because i mean they

don't care they just want action because you're taking someone else's money not necessarily there so yeah no limits limits are not a thing uh you just need to be able to have someone scoop your action or i'll be able to scoop enough action that's already laid and you can like set your own mind too right you want to put out um like what's on the screen now if you're watching live with like the falcons vikings game like it's a four and that's basically what we're seeing um you know we're seeing five and a half out there right like you just put the four out there right does someone want the other side of the four plus money like you know you can kind of create your own stuff um and manipulate it here you could see you know there's a slider on the screen too, if you're watching live on YouTube, where you can click

through and see what the prices are for the different iterations of it. So it's like alt lines too, priced accordingly. So great way to get down, as Connor said, the ability to ARB. And again, if you've run into issues with limits, not an issue here, peer-to-peer. So really cool stuff. And then props the prop menu is expanding too so i'll be interested to see how that continues to expand out here into maybe some other sports as we get uh outside the football season so for sure i'll keep this up too while we're talking to some of the games here and just see what profit x says because there's actually one of the games coming up where they have the i think the best odds in market by a lot uh they

usually have the best odds pretty much no matter what but um i think this one popped on my my other screen here my on screen so all right sweet all right we'll start here we'll start with atlanta and minnesota uh this is you can see here you know different pricing on profit x uh across domestics five and a half basically uh minnesota total between 45.5 and 46.5. So shop that around as well where you're laying minus 110 on the 46.5. If you want it over 46.5 on ProfitX, that's plus money. Again, like 10, 11 points, all that stuff adds up massively over the course of a season in terms of what you're having to lay there too.

If the season ended today, which is, again like i punch myself in the face it's really one of my least favorite uh like things that said uh in sports media like it's usually done way too early like oh the season ended today it's like it's october uh the season's not ending today but as of now this would be the four or-5 playoff matchup in the NFC. Of course, the season doesn't end today. A lot can change. A tough spot for Kirk Cousins going back home to Minnesota, coming off of a pretty horrific showing against the Chargers.

The Chargers did nothing offensively. Falcons needed to just show a really small pulse, basically, to be able to get things done, and they could not do so. Scuffling a little bit here on the Atlanta side. Three straight losses. Feels like, on paper, kind of like a buy low spot for the Falcons. We're getting the market sentiments as low as ever. Minnesota just continues to win, come from behind.

Last week at home against the Cardinals. But we have this variable where Brian Flores is obviously very familiar with Kirk Cousins. And what Cousins is struggling with doesn't seem to be necessarily something that's short-lived or matchup-based. What are your thoughts here on Falcons and Vikings? Yeah, I have a hard time with getting around to Atlanta here and Cousins because we know that Flores is going to do a ton of zone blitzes. We know that Kirk is like super immobile.

He looked pretty bad last week. He's kind of just like, his play has kind of like gone downhill, it seems like, throughout the course of the season. And I mean, part of it's just like the power that he's putting in his throws, like driving off of his feet. Like it just doesn't look all the same, I think, as what we've known from Kirk before. I mean, it makes sense.

He's coming off in an Achilles tear at age you know late 30s so um right now we were over two by the way in the marketplace for late 30s quarterbacks coming off of achilles yeah uh note to self maybe we should discount that more moving forward because rogers obviously not the same either especially with offensive lines that are not playing particularly well um like i mean if you're not going to get protection or like not be able to get the ball out like super quick which it seems like that's not i don't know it's just not as much of a thing anymore um like you need some mobility and so that's a big issue obviously the other achilles tear too that we saw jk dobbins uh he is now out for four or five games as well. Um, and frankly played well for

like, I don't know what half the season. So, um, yeah, I think Achilles stairs continue to be pretty much a death sentence, but in this spot here, I mean, Kirk Cousins 5.7 yards per time to get zone blitzes, obviously not very good. Uh, and also Minnesota's run defense is like, is, has played extremely well this year. So I worry that like, if the Falcons can't run the ball, it puts a lot of pressure on Kirk cousins against the team. That's going to give them a lot of issues. Like these third and longs are just going to be brutal for a guy like Kirk. So, um, I tend to like Minnesota here at five and a half.

Um, but interested to hear your thoughts here. If you think that, um, Atlanta can hang around. Yeah. It's a stay away from me because I feel like it's a good situational spot where like, like I said, but sentiment feels low and it would be a good time to jump in on the Falcons.

I'm worried. Did you see some of the, like the next gen stat stuff on cousins, like speed of his throat? Nothing touched our top 36 miles per hour against the chargers on Sunday. Just like the pick six was such just like a everything was a touch pass right there's so much anticipation that there's like the inability to like jam it in uh to someone which is just really really hard to watch that feels like a bad mix

for what flores is going to want to do here so uh even though it feels like a spot that we should maybe be buying low a little bit on the falcons um it's it's vikings are nothing for me um i saquon's been awesome minnesota's rundy's been terrific uh they've allowed like i was looking to like last five games they were having 31 yards per game on the grounds uh which is it's really hard i mean that's a smaller sample but it's not a nothing sample it's a five game sample uh against some teams that can run the football so they're just they basically make you play with one hand tied behind your back and now that other hand is kurt cousins so that's just not a great great place to be um so there'll be some passing volume i think there'll be some some prop avenues there

to explore based off of how we think that game can go but um yeah vikings are nothing for me even though it feels like the donkey square chalk side of it um you probably best off taking some alts right like vikings minus nine and a half or something like that do we have anything like that any um you can get six for plus 102 um i don't hate that i mean that's not far off of where the market is anyway instead of like laying minus 115 or whatever like you get plus money yeah right exactly so yeah i don't know i mean i think that's yeah six plus 102 is not bad um i mean there's there's a lot of good prices here i mean five and a half, even a minus

one Oh eight. It's pretty solid, I think too. Um, so yeah, all those, I think all those are good. I think they're decent looks here. Uh, the over under specifically, I don't really have too much of a take just because I worry about Atlanta driving too many points here. Um, but not sure I'm stoked to bet the under here either, because we've seen, um, Darnold with time, like play extremely well the running game is looking pretty solid so uh it's yeah it's kind of just passed for me on the total he's the other side um now you mentioned it too makes me a little concerned last week the Cardinals got a ton of pressure against Sam Darnold the highest pressure rate in the league

the Cardinals who are like bottom two or three and pressure rate on the season a lot of it was second level stuff uh blitzing linebackers um you know blitzing safeties and corners so that is something that raheem morris does like to do so maybe under is a viable look here you know donald's taking a ton of sacks i think he's taking either the fourth most third or fourth most sacks his pressure to sacrate his top five um they like to bring kate and ellis they like to bring their linebackers um from the cardinals sorry i'm sorry for the falcons so maybe an under is a is a decent look in the spot considering both teams might eat a bunch of sacks or uh you know have a bunch of pressure kirk does a great job of avoiding sacks mostly because he just gets rid of the ball so fast but um that's how we get pick sixes and stuff so that could be a killer to an under but under is probably the right look yeah no good call

all right next game has uh probably the most important game on the slate in terms of uh what happens moving forward from a playoff standpoint se Seattle is on the road in Arizona. Domestics, this is minus two, maybe some plus money threes moving out there as well. You have 44 and a half, 45 and a half is the total. You can see here on the screen, Seattle plus three minus 120 at ProfitX, which is very, very interesting. What's the two and a half priced at? If you just click into that real quick. All right, Seattle plus two and a half is plus 101,

which is a great price. Yeah. So again, like I said, impactful for what happens here in the playoffs because Seattle's playing really good football. If you look at PFF's playoff leveraged calculator type things seattle has a 76 chance to make the playoffs with a win uh a loss for arizona slides them down to a five percent chance basically uh then these teams basically arizona's like a 50 chance and then very much alive for the division

the division gets really murky uh with an arizona win. First meeting was just two weeks ago. It was a stinker 16 to six in Seattle. Only offensive touchdown was a pick six. Neither team managed to top 300 yards in total offense. And we've seen that kind of reflected in the market where the total kind of, you know, 46 is kind of where it opened. And now we've seen it drive down 44 and a half, 45 and a half in some spots here.

I think you probably know my lean here, but what are your thoughts on Seattle and Arizona? Yeah, I just want to keep buying Seattle. Like every week I'm like, I don't know what it is about them, but maybe it's just like, I don't know. It's one of those things where like I'm just always intrigued. And like last week I felt like they just were, every bounce was not going their way for the first half of the game.

Essentially, you know, I got the special teams teams i think a little bit there as well uh and then they ended up pulling it up uh just because i think they're a pretty good team their run even does not really play as well as they had in previous weeks which i thought was interesting brie saw a couple of nice rips up the middle now that being said like they were kind of more in like some obviously usually having more obvious passing situations, but that's certainly a concern. James Conner kind of got back on track last week. Unfortunately, one of my few losses last week, but no, I think that this is, I don't know. I like, again, I want to keep backing Seattle here, Arizona, if they can't get pressure again, like, you know, I think Seattle could score even a

little bit more, but Seattle's defense has looked so much better, so much, or so good against Arizona. Like it's tough for me to think about backing Arizona here. So yeah, two and a half, three at minus one 20. I don't think it's bad either. You're getting basically pin compared to the market right now. The market at most domestic six is minus one 10.

So, you know, again, if, if for some reason you wanted the three really bad, you need to get minus one 20 year profit X. What's my money line price if you drive down seattle uh plus 130 yeah plus 130 that's beautiful i think it's like plus 112 or something like that

on draft kings or uh shout out drafting sponsor the show um yeah, plus one 30 is, is pretty awesome. So that's where it is for me, Seattle. I still think that they're the better football team from Seattle to win the division futures feeling pretty, pretty live, obviously with everything that's going on in San Francisco comparatively, you know, Arizona and the Rams Rams obviously not dead and very much not dead if, if Arizona wins this football game, but yeah, I just, I I'm bullish on Seattle. It was bullish on the coach coming in. The defense I think is gelling in a way that we may be expected early in the season. And it makes sense in hindsight, why it doesn't gel early.

I continue to beat the drum on, i think the linebacker shift here uh basically you know losing two mediocre one okay one mediocre linebackers and putting in two really strong run-stopping um you know gap filling linebackers has been awesome for this team and has allowed them to you know not have to play you know julian love in the box a ton right you can keep him back and it can bolster your you know your past defense a little bit more because you didn not have to play you know julian love in the box a ton right you can keep him back and it can bolster your you know your past defense a little bit more because you didn't have to support the run so much uh with him and jenkins and colby ryan all those guys so yeah i'm bullish on seattle i like the money line at plus 130 i think the right side here if you have any interest or you'd still get down on some good seattle to win the division i think that's probably

still the best look here uh yeah i mean seattle to win this division the niners are just completely cooked at this point um on the schedule they still have some games right like bears rams at miami detroit at arizona like considering everything that's going on there like i don't know yeah i mean they can go three and two there but it's not great does the division come down to like this game almost i mean both teams are plus 170 plus 180 like uh rams are plus 300 niners 14 to 1 i mean like i don't know plus 170 doesn't seem like a bad price it does i mean the rams have a okay schedule uh but again they rams and they do play more division teams like the seattle's done seattle does play i think they play the rams in the last week of the season yeah they go to la

on week 18 but this is the end right seattle's got a stretch where they play the nsc north they get green bay and minnesota at home and then at chicago so tough stretch for seattle uh in terms of opponents that's probably why the market is where it is on them uh but then again they will have the edge in terms of you know tiebreakers against uh all those teams and if they take care of business against the rams a week 18 they'll have that one too so yeah okay that's that's kind of it for them i like it yeah seattle's aside guys all right next uh touched on buffalo buffalo's on the road against the rams an important one for the rams as well uh we have basically in the market let's see we're at four and a half uh five out there a little bit total 49 and a half uh profit x you could see those prices are much

better you can lay the minus 106 on the bills there, minus 103 on the Rams, getting the four and a half. This is an interesting spot just in terms of what's going on with the bills. Obviously, clinching the division last week, fifth straight, AFC East, and egg on our face, definitely looking for ways to get out of Buffalo winning the division, and they become the first team in the league, week 13, to lock up the division, which is just absolutely wild. They still have something to play for. Obviously they're a game back of Kansas city for the top spot in the AFC. They won the head to head there. So they obviously have the tiebreaker. So they can't really take their foot off the gas this

early. So they do have something to play for, but it's kind of human nature back to back weeks. They have a road game next week on the road, Detroit. It's a big game. Do they get caught looking ahead here against the Rams team that obviously is basically, you know, desperate to keep their hopes alive here? Uh, thoughts on bills and ramps. Yeah, I, I have a tough time getting to the Rams because the bills are just so much better in basically every facet of the game. Um, I will say, I mean, the bills run defenses periodically had struggles throughout the year. Like they've also played very well at certain times, but they've also, you know, been gashed a little bit on the ground. We've seen this Rams team, especially offensively, if they can get the ground game going, it opens up just like a million more things for Matthew

Stafford and that off that passing offense to do virtually whatever. And I mean, could force this game into a shootout. Like that wouldn't be surprising to me. Uh, and that off that passing offense to do virtually whatever. And I mean, could force this game into a shootout. Like that wouldn't be surprising to me. And that would, in my mind, that would be the path to them winning here. The other path would be, you know,

just getting a lot of pressure on Josh Allen. He hasn't necessarily been super pressure dependent specifically, but I do think that especially with getting, probably getting Dalton Kikade back, getting Keon Coleman back, you know, Amari Cooper and Cleo Shakir kind of round out like a, I don't know, ragtag bunch of like receiving group,

I would say at this point. Like none of them are really all that good, but I think that they get the job done when Josh Allen's playing at the level he is in their running game, I think should have success here. So for me, it's kind of a stay away just for, you know, like I think there's a better team, but they're on the road. And I do think that there's a path for the Rams to have some success offensively.

It's just a question on how much. And if, if not, then I mean, Buffalo is going to win by a lot, a lot, a lot. So yeah, I don't know. I think it's, it's, it's a tough game for me. And I want to go back to the futures conversation you had though. Like we were excited to fade them a little bit, or I was excited to fade them a little bit. I think you were trying to kind of stay on them a little bit because they're

one of the better teams. And it just reminds me every year, like there's a couple of teams that there's a lot of projection involved in the jets were one of those teams that there is a lot of projection. You're like, Oh, well if Aaron writers plays better and the offensive line, they signed all these guys and the defense was elite.

So you're, you can keep that. And these pieces just like one by one and fallen apart or just never panned out and so yeah again it's just like a reminder that like we know certain things are good it's like the you know the boat mixed mystery box family guys you know and like literally like you know the the bills of the boat the mystery boxes the jets uh and turns out like you know again we should have just picked the boat so it it was not a boat. Yeah. There was a lot of projection that was easy to, in hindsight, see injuries. You know, Hassan Reddick never really reports basically for the meaningful part of the season,

meaningful part of the season, other injuries that have happened. Yeah. It's just been, it's been kind of a mess there in Buffalo. Yeah. They've, they lost some bodies, but Josh Allen is pretty damn good in the talent maximizer, and they just are hard to bet against. We probably maybe shouldn't have in hindsight, considering where we're at now.

And again, a wagon down the stretch, especially if they have home field advantage there in the playoffs, which I think is going to be very, very interesting to watch. But yeah, I mean, I mean the handicap here can come down simply to the bills are one of the best teams that basically creating gaps to run in, in terms of like where they're at yards before contact. The Rams are one of the worst defenses in terms of, you know, yards, letting guys get a bunch of yards running downhill

against them right so uh they also get a ton of pressure josh allen just is taking sacks to the lowest rate in the league uh when the offensive line holds up pretty well but even so he creates him out of pocket is absolutely terrifying so that's actually something that i don't think you necessarily want to see happen he gets way more aggressive out of pocket too, in terms of like averaged up the target and big time throw rate. So it's almost like one of those scenarios where do you really even want to bring a ton of pressure on him because he becomes like this different, this different monster when that happens. So yeah, bills are nothing for me,

even though the situation is probably tough and I understand why situational bettors would probably want to back the Rams here, but I mean there are just too many flaws in terms of the pressure that the Rams can, or the bills can generate here and the bills ability to run the football. Yeah. We need a highlight reel of Josh Allen, like rolling out and just like not throwing the ball yet, but just like pump faking a couple of times.

And then just because he's, his arm strength is so good. He can throw like off platform and like any point, like 40 yards downfield. So if anyone gets open at all, he can just plant one foot and just rip it anytime. So he's done such a good job of that this year. And it leads to some chaotic Josh Allen plays sometimes,

but in the past and this year, it's all just been money. He's finding some random guy open in his own 10 seconds after the play starts. Yeah. Yeah. How far we've come on the Josh Allen analysis is pretty wild. Yeah, I got some tweets to delete that I shouldn't delete, but I'm not going to

just because I hope they... I'm just shocked that no one hates me enough to go back and find some older seats and resurface them. I guess I have the tweet muted, so I don't know if anyone has ever, to be honest. Okay, smart. Yeah, I have the tweet muted, so I don't know if anyone has ever, to be honest. Okay, smart. Yeah, I muted it when I started getting threats in my DMs about that. So that was kind of the end of that tweet for me.

But no, I'm just surprised that no one's tried to tag me in something else and be like, look at this moron. So maybe I just need to be more commercial. Yeah, those mafias, they're passionate, right? They'll be like the first ones to donate to charity right you know remember that with like the amy dalton stuff in the past oh yeah did something with like um trevary's ward lost his child uh they played last week and like they raised a bunch of money for him but they're they'll also go to bat passionately for

their people too so there's a lot of passion uh in New York for their football team. And, you know, Josh Allen slander, not tolerated. That's for sure. No, definitely not. All right. Next one. Chargers on the road in Kansas City. Domestics four, basically. There's some three and a halves out there that are juicy laying on the Kansas City side.

Total between 42, 43 and a halfs out there that are juicy laying on the Kansas City side. Total between 42, 43 and a half. So you could chop that around. All similar, all a little bit under the key number there. If you kind of look here on ProfitX, some better numbers. You can get plus 102 to take the chargers, plus money. You lay 109 on Kansas City here to lay the four. Same thing, the total is pretty nice too in terms of the price points there as well.

These teams obviously met early in the season, back in week four, kind of a dud as well, 17-10. Again, another close game because that's all the Chiefs are allowed to do. Chargers really struggled on the ball in that game too, totaling just 55 yards on 24 carries. Now the run game has lost its way a little bit, although they were running not well in that game, but overall pretty well to start the season.

The J.K. Dobbins loss has been kind of a struggle again. They should not have won that football game last week against Atlanta. Puts a lot of pressure on Justin Herbert. Seemed to be up to the task. The line McConkie's been playing great. He's dinged up a little bit be interested to see how that affects things here too little shift on the offensive line on kansas

city side that i want to see if that sticks to they benched left tackle wanya morris in the fourth quarter who was getting absolutely torched by max crosby and tyree wilson and um they kicked joe thune out to tackle i don't know if that's something that they want to do, but we'll see if that holds. I mean, Chargers are healthy at edge. Mack and Bosa have missed some time this season, but they both are back and playing well. They have four different guys that they can rotate at edge

because of the offensive line issues. We've seen a higher sack rate for Mahomes this season. Interesting game here, Connor, considering all that's going on. Chargers and Kansas City, what are your thoughts? Yeah, it was kind of an ugly game last, last time, as you mentioned, I mean the chargers, like, so that, that was when the chargers were still in their era of like, we're going to run the ball no matter what, you know, which is like the first five, six weeks. And they were just jamming. I mean, they ran 24 times for 55 yards. They averaged 2.3 yards per

carry 20 carries combined from just Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. Uh, and they did not combine for more than 60 yards or it was 51 yards. I can buy one. So really bad, really, really bad. Uh, and so that's just not their identity at all though. Like they've shown the ability to go more pass heavy. They've shown the ability to like, and that, that I think lines up with some of the chiefs weaknesses. They're a great run defense. Their pass defense has been very much fine for a good bit now. I mean, we saw Aiden O'Connell rip them for something. We saw Bryce Young rip them for something. I mean, these guys are generally not good quarterbacks.

They're playing better, but I mean, they're not good quarterbacks. And Justin Herbert, I think, has played pretty well for most of the season. Ladd McConkie is huge, though. I had an over teed up potentially on Justin Herbert's passing yards. But I mean, Ladd McConkie is huge though. I, you know, I had a, an over teed up potentially on Justin Herbert's passing yards. And, but I mean, Ladd McConkie is so important last week. It was a 50% target share, I believe, uh, for Ladd McConkie. It was like every play possible. They were just targeting him. He's just always open, which is great. But the rest of the receiving core sucks. I mean, Quinn Johnson is horrible. Josh Palmer is basically just like a clear out guy. And Will Disley is like kind ofosh palmer is basically just like a clear out guy and will

disley's like been in nobody's entire career and has like a couple good games this year but like i think disley and mcconkie are probably the two focal points here um and i think they get it done so i don't know i like the chargers here plus four and a half i think is interesting unsurprisingly i'm backing the chargers again uh you know but they just keep winning i don't know it just keeps working out so uh yeah i'm into it i think it's the side i mean getting the full four especially here at profit x where you can get the plus 102 i mean that feels it feels like a great look i mean i would even kick it down like what's three and a half right because at that point four is kind of not necessarily dead fours can you know can be important nowadays but yeah plus one okay i probably just keep the four because you're still getting the plus money yeah because

you get plus 100 for i mean you can get plus 100 plus 102 for like over 300 bucks of liquidity here so not a ton but i mean enough for almost every better you know that you know normal better you know like yeah sure yeah it's not if you want more if you want 500 you get minus 101 you know so yeah okay in there it's beauty this yeah i love that um yeah i think the chargers are probably aside even with some of the questions we're early in the week so we can see how that shakes out but um yeah it's just hard to hard to see what's going on in kansas city and how this really changes they miss uh i was looking into it earlier today, actually. Jalen Watson was really good for them at corner

and they've started to mix match. They've moved to a lot of Nassim Johnson. They kind of benched him last week, too. He's not been playing well. So I feel like they don't really know what they want to do. I think the loss of the Jarius Sneem, not just what he was doing on the field, but what allowed them to do with

Trent McDuffie. They've been able to like shift him i don't think he's as comfortable with what his role has been this year too so like everything's kind of slid down but like their completion rate over expectation uh the yards per game everything without jalen watson in the lineup has been significantly worse so um without him that seems to be an important player for them so uh hard to be bullish on the chiefs passing defense which has been you know such a strong focal point of that defense for the last couple years so chargers getting the full four especially a plus 102 i think is is the side here um probably another under spot too especially if you can what's 44

and a half what can i get in the action on? Am I paying out the nose? Okay. You want under? Yeah, I had one under, but that's. Yeah, minus 150. That's too much on a total, I think. I agree. But yeah, it's looking like this is the juice on the unders.

It seems like a lot of people want the unders here. Yeah. What's the market? One or 43? I mean, yeah yeah it's all over a little bit like fandles 40 or drafting is 42 and a half yeah um yeah there's some 43s out there so if you want the regular 42 and a half i mean minus 104 is pretty good that's like minus where else but uh any of the alts a little little pricey, I would say. Yeah.

Yeah. I get why people would lean that way too. So, yeah, I'm with you. Chargers are nothing. That makes sense too. All right. Did you touch on Thursday night game? You know, we typically don't, but the Thursday night is a good one.

Or if you want to touch on any other games, obviously the, you know, one of the better games on the slate with Green Bay on the road in Detroit. Another rematch from a couple weeks ago. Three, three and a half out there. Just an important game. I mean, as good as Detroit's been, Green Bay and Minnesota are very much still in the mix

in terms of where this division stands. Detroit won the first one. That was the week after Jordan Love was coming off of the groin injury in Jacksonville. We weren't even sure if he was going to play that game in terms of like, if you look at the box score, you'd be surprised that there was a 10 point Lions win because Green Bay,

it basically dominated a lot of the metrics in the game. Pick six in that game from Jordan Love was really important there too. But do you have any thoughts on how that game is going to play out or anything else on the board you want to touch on yeah i i think you might be uh well i'm interested in your thoughts here so uh i keep our slack chat open during during all the time and so uh you know i got a notification mid-show and i closed it that uh dj reader is out for the lions. So that means that they are down to, I think just a limb, a lean McNeil.

And then, and just like a bunch of bums based on the defensive line. Like they got, you know, basically no one. I mean, their whole linebacker core is basically beat up to like, it's,

there isn't a really rough spot up front. And so Stu, you know, monotone hit us up and said, he was taking Jordan or Josh Jacobs over 68. So I, I pinged said I joined that. So I liked Josh Jacobs over. So like 71 now,

72, I think is, I think it's still fine. 69 and a half. It looks like in some places still, I mean, that's in my opinion, that's great.

You had 93 last time against him. Like this lion's defense and all the metrics are like top five. Right. But when, I mean, when you're beat up, like it's, it's just different, you know, like we see it all the time. Injuries matter so much. And so like relying just on the metrics, like if you're not done with the context of like who, like, you know, the missing players that, uh, I think that's why the line was the way

it was and should probably be in the mid seventies. I think, uh, especially especially like i think they're gonna keep this game close like you mentioned jordan love kind of just returning like again through a costly pick six um i think that they'll probably keep the game close enough so that they can run the ball so that's probably my take on that um and i'd probably play packers plus three and a half i had to pick a side i'm not sure that i love the packers necessarily overall as a team i just think this could be a good good good enough spot for him yeah i think a healthier love to comparatively versus the last time to makes a ton of sense uh it's an important game i think it's going to be really interesting

to watch i just i think the lions are a unit um and when they're forced to have to like score and keep up with the team too we just haven't seen that very much. It'll be interesting to see if that happens here too. But this is actually – I picked this for the NFC Championship game. I thought these teams could both be here. So I'm not ready to rule out the Packers. Tracking well. It's live.

It's better than the Texans' Chiefs, which I think is not tracking quite as well given what's going on uh with the texans but yeah i mean i had the jets you had the jets fucking jets but you're the eagles so that's a good one yeah that is that was jesse yeah i think you were jets eagles uh in the super bowl but i think you were eagles niners so So I understood. I mean, not picking the Niners felt awful at the time, but that's not worked. But yeah.

It only took their entire team getting injured, every single good player. And Debo is like a slug. Debo is just like a, you know, he's chubby. It is a really rough defensive line for the lions right now um so darius smith trade was nice for them and he's playing good football uh off the edge not a run-stopping uh guy at all he's a get up the field disrupt the pocket i i i'd pay really good money if you can name one other defensive lineman outside of dj reader no i mean nothing left i mean there's there's nothing i was looking at the thing today when

we were talking about it yesterday it was like there was like all the names crossed off of like who's out it's like eight guys they're like nine guys in the front seven yeah yeah even the linebacker cores uh i mean they did scoop up my boy uh david long from miami so be just to see if he gets in the mix but um you know guy miami was trying to keep off the field on passing downs but a good run stopper for sure but um last week outside of ali mcneil and dj reader the next guy that led in snaps was mckay wingo which if you'd asked me three weeks ago who he even played for i would have lost that bet for sure so um patrick o'connor broderick martin just a bunch of dudes that uh do not get regular nfl snaps they're gonna have to be playing uh probably a decent amount here against the packers on thursday night so tough

spot for for detroit is mckay wingo playing is he like yeah also really nice um third game in 12 days for the lions it's tough not great not great what's the packers because these teams both played on thanksgiving right yeah for sure but i think the packers seem like they're at least a little more healthy right no the packers are more healthy for sure yeah yeah yeah no the i mean the injuries and you know we still don't know what's going on with carton Davis. If he's going to play for sure, because they've had to, you know, dust off some, I mean, Roberts, Robertson and Kendall Valore in the,

in the back or secondary as well, guys that they don't necessarily want to play either. So yeah, it'd be interesting to see what's going on there, but I think probably taking some plus money on the Packers. And I think your, your prop there is probably a pretty good look. You guys definitely got the best of the number yeah it was just oh we we talked about it before if like it was like basically if any of these other if any other

defensive linemen were out you know if you have reader and mcneil you probably stopped the run but you're not going to get any pressure but only one of them i mean it's kind of tough to do anything i feel like yeah the reader they've been getting that's been where their pressure's coming from too is because that's all they have left is becoming it's coming from the middle which is uh it's tough because that's actually green bay's best thing they are very offensive line is like the best pass blocking offensive line in the league i love not taking many sacks so yeah he's gonna have time maybe some chunk plays in the passing game too something detroit has not been giving up a ton of lately,

but maybe if Carlton Davis is out. Okay. Warming up to some Packers there. Maybe the total makes a ton of sense because if you get that team pressed a little bit, then all of a sudden they got to let loose a little bit. So, yeah. Any other games that you wanted to highlight or touch on?

I thought Bears-Niners was interesting. Bears opened at like five and a half. I thought that was kind of interesting. At this point, four, I think I would still have a little bit of interest, not too much. The Jets, I think the Dolphins blow the Jets out. I mean, the Jets' defense has been so bad since Salah left. Sauce Gardner's out.

He was playing terrible anyways. He's more interested in his golf game it seems like but i like i i mean i think the dolphins are just going to drop like 30 on them basically at this point um because the jets are shelling themselves and i mean the office hasn't really looked all that good either so i think that that's kind of interesting spot here for the dolphins as a team that they were getting a slight discount because they haven't really won a lot of games that they didn't really look great in the cold. I think that Tua played actually mostly fine, to be clear. Yeah, he did. I mean, he threw for like 300-something, I think,

or like 40 completions. A lot of that came in the second half. Some of it was in garbage time, obviously. But the main narrative was that the cold impacted Tua, and the cold did not really impact Tua. The team was just worse than the Packers. I don't know. I mean, they're not like a power-running team,

so that definitely hurts a little bit in the cold. And again, the Packers was a better team. like I don't know I mean they they're not like a power running team so that hurts definitely hurts a little bit in the cold and again the Packers is a better team so I don't know it's kind of like in my mind that's what played out more than like the two a cold narrative I agree I'd love to fade the Giants I just can't do it with the Saints team on the road that's for sure um yeah I mean that's I joked like I watched the same watching that game like that was the offense that I quarterbacked in sixth grade. That Derek Carr offense. It was just like, like either moon ball or check down kind of what we thought the Russell Wilson Steelers offense would be, but I take a couple of deep shots,

but then it's like now take some Hills out. Like what are the, it's going to be just a ton of kamara targets and maybe joan johnson targets and like i don't know so i would love to fade the giants without uh you know dexter lawrence and some injuries in the secondary and injuries in linebacker and my bike i'm not laying money on derrick car on the road that's for sure so maybe there'll be some other spots to fade the giants it's not this week yeah i mean the saints right now it's like one of the probably the worst or one of the worst receiving cores in the league that currently what they're trotting out and a bad offensive line that's like kind of beat up so i mean what are you supposed to do you know it's like there's not

really i don't even blame them too much they just like don't have players you know it's like what do you really even do with that hand the ball to kamara maybe kendrick miller gets more involved this week kendrick miller's supposed to be back this weekend let's see he looked kind of good the last time we saw him um i don't know it's really tough tough one yeah it's it's a spot that i well i'm like oh the giants are in trouble i'm like oh they play the saints like oh gosh i'm gonna stick uh hold that one in the holster for maybe another week where we can buy low on the Giants. But again, how to buy low on the Giants

when they're just low. That's just kind of where they're at. All right, buddy. That's good for the week. Remind folks, come back on Friday, 3pm Eastern for Prop Drop. Connor, myself, John Hyslop getting off the rails, ladders, alts, bets.

Maybe Connor has some overs for us this week. Who knows? I think just shove it in Hyslop's face. Just keep banging those unders. Stay on brand. Build that up. Don't capitulate to the man who wants the overs. We can lose his attention for a couple minutes every show.

Then just have some guys for alts and some ladders for the milli parlay but you know do your thing man keep cooking so come back on friday for that folks make sure you tune into four for four bets on the youtube channel i'll remove the line wherever you listen to podcasts check out profit x hopefully if this is the first time you've seen it um there's no loopholes this is just peer-to-peer no limits better vague guys i mean like um especially if you're in one of the jailed states like connor mentions the big ones you know florida california texas spots where you cannot bet on sports that's actually not really true uh with this uh sweepstakes

loophole uh so if you have questions reach out to us directly um and we'll help you get started so for connor i'm ryan we'll see you all next time. Thanks everybody.